24. JUNIJ 2004 
24 JUNE 2004 
17 RUDARSTVO IN PREDELOVALNE DEJAVNOSTI
 MINING AND MANUFACTURING
št./No 13
št./No 185
 
 
 Statistične informacije, št. 185/2004 
2 Rapid Reports No 185/2004 
 
 
 
 
Statistične informacije, št. 185/2004 
Rapid Reports No 185/2004 3 
 
 
 
 Statistične informacije, št. 185/2004 
4 Rapid Reports No 185/2004 
 
METODOLOŠKA POJASNILA METHODOLOGICAL EXPLANATIONS 
  
NAMEN STATISTIČNEGA RAZISKOVANJA PURPOSE OF STATISTICAL SURVEY 
Namen kvalitativne Ankete o poslovnih tendencah (PA-IND/M) je 
mesečno pridobivanje informacij o trenutnih stanjih glavnih ekonomskih 
kazalcev ter ocenitev njihovega gibanja v naslednjih mesecih. Rezultati 
anket so osnova za izračun kazalca zaupanja v predelovalnih dejavnostih 
in kazalca gospodarske klime, ki vključuje poleg kazalca zaupanja v 
predelovalnih dejavnostih tudi kazalec zaupanja pri potrošnikih in kazalec 
zaupanja v trgovini na drobno. 
The purpose of the qualitative Survey on Business Tendency (hereinafter:
PA-IND/M) is to get monthly information about current situations of major
economic indicators and to evaluate their movement in the following
months. The results of the survey are the basis for evaluation of the
confidence indicator in manufacturing and latter on also for the sentiment
indicator, which also includes the consumer confidence indicator and the
confidence indicator in retail trade. 
  
Panelno anketo o poslovnih tendencah v predelovalnih dejavnostih 
izvajamo v Sloveniji od aprila 1995 s poenotenim vprašalnikom, na 
podlagi poenotene metodologije in z enako periodiko, kot jo izvajajo v 
državah članicah Evropske unije že več desetletij. Zato so vsi podatki 
neposredno primerljivi. 
We have been carrying out the Survey on Business Tendency in
Manufacturing in Slovenia since April 1995 with the harmonised
questionnaire, methodology and periodicity, which have been used in EU
Member States for several decades. Therefore, all data are directly
comparable. 
  
ENOTA OPAZOVANJA OBSERVATION UNITS 
Opazujemo podjetja, ki so razvrščena v predelovalne dejavnosti, to je v 
oddelke Standardne klasifikacije dejavnosti (SKD) od 15 do 36, ter so bila 
izbrana v panel podjetij na podlagi dveh meril: 
We are monitoring units that are registered in manufacturing - divisions 15
to 36 of the Standard Classification of Activities (SKD). They were
selected into the panel by two criteria: 
 velikosti podjetja (število zaposlenih, skladno z zakonom o 
gospodarskih družbah) in  
 the size of the enterprise (the number of employees in accordance with
the Companies Act) and 
 razvrstitve podjetja po SKD-ju.  the classification of the enterprise according to the SKD. 
  
VIRI SOURCES 
Na vprašalnik odgovarjajo direktorji podjetij ali drugi vodilni delavci med 1. 
in 10. v mesecu. Rezultate pa objavimo že okoli 20. v istem mesecu. 
Persons responding to the monthly questionnaire are managers of
enterprises or other executives. They respond between the 1st and the
10th in the month. Results are published approximately on the 20th of the
current month. 
  
ZAJETJE COVERAGE 
V panelni vzorec smo zajeli vas velika podjetja, 56 % srednjevelikih (ali 
59 % zaposlenih) in 18 % malih podjetij (ali 20 % zaposlenih). Panelni 
vzorec pokriva 37 % podjetij vzorčnega okvira ali 74 % zaposlenih v 
predelovalnih dejavnostih. 
The panel includes all large enterprises, 56% of medium-sized enterprises
(or 59% of employees) and 18% of small enterprises (or 20% of
employees); the panel covers 37% of the enterprises of the studied
population or 74% of employees in manufacturing. 
  
NAČIN ZBIRANJA PODATKOV METHOD OF DATA COLLECTING 
Anketo izvajamo mesečno po pošti, vsako četrtletje (januar, april, julij in 
oktober) pa mesečni anketi dodamo še sedem četrtletnih vprašanj. 
The survey is carried out monthly by mail, each quarter (January, April,
July and October) we are including seven more questions to the monthly
survey. 
  
UTEŽEVANJE ODGOVOROV WEIGHTS FOR RESPONSES 
Odgovori so uteženi tako, da odražajo relativno pomembnost 
posameznega podjetja v vzorcu. Znotraj oddelkov SKD so odgovori 
uteženi s številom zaposlenih. 
Responses to individual questions are weighted so that they reflect
relative importance of individual enterprise in the panel. Inside divisions of
Standard Classification of Activities (SKD) responses are weighted with
the number of employees. 
  
NEODGOVORI NON-RESPONSES 
Neodgovore vsak mesec obdelamo skladno s poenoteno metodologijo; 
delež neodgovorov se giba med 3-15 % (povprečno 9 %). 
Non-responses are processed every month in accordance with the
harmonised methodology and vary between 3 and 15% (9% on average). 
  
DEFINICIJE DEFINITIONS 
Grafikoni prikazujejo ravnotežja po posameznih vprašanjih. Ravnotežje je 
razlika med pozitivnimi in negativnimi odgovori, izražena v odstotkih. 
Ravnotežja prikazujejo gibanje opazovanih ekonomskih spremenljivk 
(stanj in pričakovanj), ne pa dejanskih velikosti ekonomskih kazalcev. 
The charts show the balance by individual questions. The balance is the
difference between positive and negative answers, expressed in percent.
The balance shows the movement of observed economic variables
(present situation and future expectations), and not the real size of
economic indicators. 
  
Statistične informacije, št. 185/2004 
Rapid Reports No 185/2004 5 
 
Ko so prikazane daljše časovne vrste podatkov ali primerjave kazalcev z 
EU so vrednosti desezonirane. To so vrednosti, pri katerih je izključen 
vpliv sezone,  vsebujejo pa trend-cikel in naključno komponento. Podatki 
za EU so desezonirani z metodo DAINTIES, za Slovenijo pa z metodo 
TRAMO/SEATS, ki temelji na ARIMA modelih. Pri oblikovanju modelov je 
upoštevano časovno obdobje od marca 1995 do januarja 2004. Zaradi 
narave podatkov se modeli za leto 2004 razlikujejo v primerjavi z modeli 
za leto 2003 le pri kazalcu zaupanja. Zaradi narave podatkov časovna 
vrsta Ustreznost proizvodnih zmogljivosti ni desezonirana, saj sezonska 
komponenta ni prisotna. 
In the charts with longer time series or by comparisons with EU indicators,
data are seasonally adjusted. Values are adjusted for seasonal
component, which include trend-cycle component and irregular
component. Data for EU are seasonally adjusted by DAINTIES method
and for Slovenia by TRAMO/SEATS method, which is based on ARIMA
models. The designing of the models is based on the time period from
March 1995 till January 2004. Because of the nature of data, models for
2004 differ from those used in 2003 only by confidence indicator.
Because of the nature of data the series Current production capacity is
not seasonally adjusted, because of absence of seasonal component. 
   
Kazalec zaupanja je povprečje odgovorov (ravnotežij) na vprašanja o 
proizvodnih pričakovanjih, skupnih naročilih in zalogah končnih izdelkov 
(obrnjen predznak). 
The confidence indicator is defined as the arithmetic mean of the answers
(balances) to the questions on production expectation, assessment of
overall order books and assessment of stocks of finished products (the
latter with inverted sign). 
  
OBJAVLJANJE PODATKOV PUBLISHING 
Sodelujoči v anketi prejmejo informacijo o oddelku SKD, v katerega se po 
dejavnosti razvrščajo in o predelovalnih dejavnostih, vendar le, če so 
izpolnili vprašalnik za tekoči mesec. 
Persons participating in the survey get the special information for division
in which they are classified and for manufacturing. They get it only if they
responded in the current month. 
  
Drugim uporabnikom so dostopni podatki na ravni predelovalnih dejavnosti 
in njenih oddelkov in po velikostnih razredih podjetij. Podatki so mesečno 
objavljeni v Statističnih informacijah – Poslovne tendence v predelovalnih 
dejavnostih in v podatkovni bazi SI-STAT na naslovu http://www.stat.si/. 
Other users can get data for manufacturing and its divisions and data for
different size groups of enterprises. Data are published in the monthly
Rapid Reports – Business tendency in manufacturing and in the database
SI-STAT which is available on the http://www.stat.si/eng/. 
  
MESEČNA VPRAŠANJA: MONTHLY QUESTIONS: 
• Proizvodni ritem v opazovanem mesecu: živahnejši, enak, šibkejši? • Production rhythm in the observed month: increased, remain
unchanged, decreased?  
• Ocena ravni izvoznih naročil: višja kot normalno, normalna, nižja kot 
normalno? 
• Assessment of current export order books: above normal, normal,
below normal? 
• Ocena ravni skupnih naročil: višja kot normalno, normalna, nižja kot 
normalno? 
• Assessment of current overall order books: above normal, normal,
below normal? 
• Ocena ravni zalog končnih izdelkov: višja kot normalno, normalna, 
nižja kot normalno? 
• Assessment of current stock of finished products: above normal,
normal, below normal? 
• Pričakovana proizvodnja v naslednjih 3 mesecih: naraščala, 
nespremenjena, padala? 
• Production expectations over the next 3 months: increase, remain
unchanged, decrease? 
• Pričakovane cene v naslednjih 3 mesecih: naraščale, nespremenjene, 
padale? 
• Selling prices expectations over the next 3 months: increase, remain
unchanged, decrease? 
• Pričakovano število zaposlenih v naslednjih 3 mesecih: povečalo, 
ostalo nespremenjeno, zmanjšalo? 
• Firm’s total employment expectations over the next 3 months:
increase, remain unchanged, decrease? 
• Pričakovan izvoz v naslednjih 3 mesecih: naraščal, nespremenjen, 
padal? 
• Export orders expectations over the next 3 months: increase, remain
unchanged, decrease? 
• Pričakovano skupno povpraševanje v naslednjih 3 mesecih: krepilo, 
enako, slabelo? 
• Expected total demand over the next 3 months: increase, remain
unchanged, decrease? 
• Ob sedanjem proizvodnem ritmu je zagotovljena proizvodnja za: .... 
mesecev? 
• Duration of production assured by current overall order books: for …
months? 
  
ČETRTLETNA VPRAŠANJA: QUARTERLY QUESTIONS: 
• Omejitveni dejavniki v proizvodnji: ni omejitev, nezadostno domače 
povpraševanje, nezadostno tuje povpraševanje, konkurenčen uvoz, 
pomanjkanje delavcev na splošno, pomanjkanje usposobljenih 
delavcev, pomanjkanje surovin, pomanjkanje polizdelkov, pomanjkanje 
ustrezne opreme, neplačništvo, finančni problemi, nejasna gospodarska 
zakonodaja, negotove gospodarske razmere, ostalo? 
• Limits to production: none, insufficient domestic demand, insufficient
foreign demand, competitive imports, shortage of labour in general,
shortage of skilled labour, shortage of raw materials, shortage of
semi-finished products, lack of appropriate equipment, problems with
unpaid bills, financial problems, unclear economic legislation,
uncertain economic conditions, other? 
• Sedanje proizvodne zmogljivosti: prevelike, ustrezne, premajhne? • Assessment of current production capacity: more than sufficient,
sufficient, not sufficient? 
• Sedanja stopnja izkoriščenosti zmogljivosti: .... odstotkov? • Current level of capacity utilisation: in percentage of full capacity? 
• Konkurenčni položaj podjetja na domačem trgu v zadnjih 3 mesecih:
boljši, nespremenjen, slabši? 
• Competitive position on the domestic market over the past 3 months:
improved, remained unchanged, deteriorated? 
• Konkurenčni položaj podjetja na trgih držav članic Evropske Unije v 
zadnjih 3 mesecih: boljši, nespremenjen, slabši? 
• Competitive position on the foreign markets inside the EU over the
past 3 months: improved, remained unchanged, deteriorated?  
• Konkurenčni položaj podjetja na trgih zunaj Evropske Unije v zadnjih 
3 mesecih: boljši, nespremenjen, slabši? 
• Competitive position on the markets outside the EU over the past 3
months: improved, remained unchanged, deteriorated? 
• Obseg novih naročil se je v zadnjih 3 mesecih: povečal, ostal 
nespremenjen, zmanjšal? 
• New orders over the past 3 months: increased, remain unchanged,
decreased? 
 
 Statistične informacije, št. 185/2004 
6 Rapid Reports No 185/2004 
 
KOMENTAR COMMENT 
Junija so direktorji tendence v predelovalnih dejavnostih ocenili enako kot 
pretekli mesec – desezonirana vrednost kazalca zaupanja je bila v juniju 
enaka kot v maju. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani je bila ta vrednost za 
11 odstotnih točk višja ter za 6 odstotnih točk nad lanskim povprečjem. 
In June managers estimated business tendencies in manufacturing the
same as in the previous month. The seasonally adjusted value of the
confidence indicator was the same as in May 2004. Compared to June
2003 it was up by 11 percentage points and 6 percentage points above
last year’s average. 
Na gibanje kazalca zaupanja v tem mesecu so vplivali zvišanje ravni 
zalog končnih izdelkov in proizvodnih pričakovanj ter znižanje ravni 
skupnih naročil, vendar se je njihovo gibanje ravno izničilo, tako da je 
vrednost  kazalca zaupanja ostala enaka kot pretekli mesec. 
The evolution of the confidence indicator in this month was influenced by
the rise of stocks of finished products and production expectations and by
the fall of overall order books, however their opposite influence on the
confidence indicator caused no change in its value.  
PROIZVODNJA in PROIZVODNA PRIČAKOVANJA PRODUCTION and PRODUCTION EXPECTATIONS 
Desezonirana vrednost kazalca proizvodnje je bila v primerjavi s preteklim 
mesecem višja za 2 odstotni točki. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila višja za 
8 odstotnih točk, glede na lansko povprečje pa za 7 odstotnih točk.  
The seasonally adjusted value of the production indicator was up by 2
percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to June
2003 it was up by 8 percentage points and compared to last year’s
average by 7 percentage points. 
Desezonirana vrednost kazalca proizvodnih pričakovanj za naslednje 3 
mesece se je zvišala za 5 odstotnih točk. V primerjavi z istim mesecem 
lani je bila višja za 8 odstotnih točk in za 4 odstotne točke od lanskega 
povprečja.  
The seasonally adjusted value of production expectations for the next
three months was up by 5 percentage points. Compared to June 2003 it
was up by 8 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 4
percentage points. 
ZAGOTOVLJENA PROIZVODNJA ASSURED PRODUCTION 
Ob junijskem proizvodnem ritmu imajo podjetja zagotovljeno proizvodnjo 
v povprečju za 4,4 meseca. To je enako kot lani v tem mesecu in za 0,1 
meseca nad lanskim povprečjem. 
With the same production rhythm as in June, production in enterprises is
assured on average for the next 4.4 months. This is the same as in June
2003 and 0.1 month over last year’s average. 
Največ podjetij (20,2 %) ima proizvodnjo zagotovljeno v povprečju za 3 
mesece. Sledijo podjetja (16,9 %), ki imajo proizvodnjo zagotovljeno v 
povprečju za več kot 10 mesecev, in podjetja (15,1 %), ki imajo 
proizvodnjo zagotovljeno v povprečju za 2 meseca. Za pol meseca ima 
zagotovljeno proizvodnjo v povprečju 6,9 % podjetij, ob junijskem 
proizvodnem ritmu pa nima zagotovljene proizvodnje v povprečju 1,8 % 
podjetij. 
In most enterprises (20.2%) production is assured for three months. They
are followed by enterprises whose production is assured for (16.9%) more
than ten months and those whose production is assured for two months
(15.1%). Should the June production rhythm continue, 6.9% of enterprises
have production assured for half a month while 1.8% of enterprises have
no assured production. 
 
IZVOZ in IZVOZNA PRIČAKOVANJA EXPORT ORDER BOOKS and EXPECTED EXPORT ORDER BOOKS 
Desezonirana vrednost kazalca ravni izvoznih naročil se je v primerjavi s 
preteklim mesecem zvišala za 3 odstotne točke. V primerjavi z istim 
mesecem lani je bila višja za 24 odstotnih točk in za 15 odstotnih točk nad 
lanskim povprečjem. 
The seasonally adjusted value of the export order books indicator grew by
3 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to June
2003 it was up by 24 percentage points and compared to last year’s
average by 15 percentage points. 
Desezonirana vrednost kazalca pričakovanega izvoza za naslednje 3 
mesece se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem zvišala za 4 odstotne 
točke. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani je bila višja za 15 odstotnih točk 
in za 6 odstotnih točk od povprečja lanskega leta.  
The seasonally adjusted value of expected export in the next three
months grew by 4 percentage points compared to the previous month.
Compared to June 2003 it was up by 15 percentage points and compared
to last year’s average by 6 percentage points. 
SKUPNA NAROČILA in PRIČAKOVANO SKUPNO POVPRAŠEVANJE OVERALL ORDER BOOKS and EXPECTED TOTAL DEMAND 
Desezonirana vrednost kazalca ravni skupnih naročil se je v primerjavi s 
preteklim mesecem znižala za 1 odstotno točko. Glede na isti mesec lani 
je bila višja za 22 odstotnih točk in 12 odstotnih točk nad povprečjem 
lanskega leta.  
The seasonally adjusted value of the overall order books indicator fell by
1 percentage point compared to the previous month. Compared to June
2003 it was up by 22 percentage points and compared to last year’s
average by 12 percentage points.  
Desezonirana vrednost kazalca pričakovanega skupnega povpraševanja 
za naslednje 3 mesece je bila za 6 odstotnih točk višja kot pretekli mesec. 
Glede na isti mesec lani je bila višja za 8 odstotnih točk, za 4 odstotne 
točke pa je bila višja od lanskega povprečja.  
The seasonally adjusted value of expected total demand for the next
three months grew by 6 percentage points compared to the previous
month. Compared to June 2003 it was up by 8 percentage points and
compared to last year’s average by 4 percentage points. 
PRIČAKOVANE CENE  SELLING PRICE EXPECTATIONS 
Desezonirana vrednost kazalca cenovnih pričakovanj za naslednje 3 
mesece se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem znižala za 2 odstotni 
točki. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani je bila višja za 12 odstotnih točk 
in 6 odstotnih točk nad povprečjem lanskega leta.  
The seasonally adjusted value of selling price expectations for the next
three months fell by 2 percentage points compared to the previous month.
Compared to June 2003 it was up by 12 percentage points and compared
to last year’s average by 6 percentage points. 
Statistične informacije, št. 185/2004 
Rapid Reports No 185/2004 7 
 
ZALOGE STOCKS OF FINISHED PRODUCTS 
Desezonirana vrednost kazalca ravni zalog končnih izdelkov je bila višja 
za 1 odstotno točko glede na pretekli mesec. Glede na isti mesec lani je 
bila nižja za 2 odstotni točki in 7 odstotnih točk pod povprečjem lanskega 
leta.  
The seasonally adjusted value of the stocks of finished products indicator
grew by 1 percentage point compared to the previous month. Compared
to June 2003 it was down by 2 percentage points and compared to last
year’s average by 7 percentage points. 
PRIČAKOVANO ZAPOSLOVANJE EXPECTED EMPLOYMENT 
Desezonirana vrednost kazalca pričakovanj glede zaposlovanja v 
naslednjih 3 mesecih je bila za 4 odstotne točke višja kot pretekli mesec. 
V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani je bila višja za 4 odstotne točke in 4 
odstotne točke nad povprečjem lanskega leta.  
The seasonally adjusted value of expected employment for the next three
months grew by 4 percentage points compared to the previous month.
Compared to June 2003 it was up by 4 percentage points and compared
to last year’s average by 4 percentage points. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Statistično raziskovanje je sofinancirala Evropska komisija. Za objavljene 
podatke in besedila je odgovoren izključno Statistični urad Republike 
Slovenije in ne Evropska komisija. 
The business survey is co-financed by the European Commission.
However, the European Commission accepts no responsibility or liability
whatsoever with regard to the material published in this document. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Sestavila / Prepared by: Jelena Čirjakovič 
Izdaja, založba in tisk Statistični urad Republike Slovenije, Ljubljana, Vožarski pot 
12 - Uporaba in objava podatkov dovoljena le z navedbo vira - Odgovarja 
generalna direktorica mag. Irena Križman - Urednica zbirke Statistične informacije 
Marina Urbas - Slovensko besedilo jezikovno uredila Joža Lakovič - Angleško 
besedilo jezikovno uredil Boris Panič - Tehnični urednik Anton Rojc - Naklada 110 
izvodov - ISSN zbirke Statistične informacije 1408-192X - ISSN podzbirke 
Rudarstvo in predelovalne dejavnosti 1408-8908 - Informacije daje Informacijsko 
središče, tel.: (01) 241 51 04 - El. pošta: info.stat@gov.si - http://www.stat.si. 
Edited, published and printed by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia,
Ljubljana, Vožarski pot 12 - These data can be used provided the source is
acknowledged - Director-General Irena Križman - Rapid Reports editor Marina
Urbas - Slovene language editor Joža Lakovič - English language editor Boris
Panič - Technical editor Anton Rojc - Total print run 110 copies - ISSN of Rapid
Reports 1408-192X - ISSN of subcollection Mining and Manufacturing 1408-8908
- Information is given by the Information Centre of the Statistical Office of the
Republic of Slovenia, tel.: +386 1 241 51 04 - E-mail: info.stat@gov.si -
http://www.stat.si.