30. DECEMBER 2004 30 DECEMBER 2004 št./No 384 20 TRGOVINA IN DRUGE STORITVENE DEJAVNOSTI DISTRIBUTIVE TRADE AND OTHER SERVICE ACTIVITIES št./No 48 Statistične informacije, št. 384/2004 2 Rapid Reports No 384/2004 Statistične informacije, št. 384/2004 Rapid Reports No 384/2004 3 Statistične informacije, št. 384/2004 4 Rapid Reports No 384/2004 Statistične informacije, št. 384/2004 Rapid Reports No 384/2004 5 METODOLOŠKA POJASNILA METHODOLOGICAL EXPLANATIONS NAMEN STATISTIČNEGA RAZISKOVANJA PURPOSE OF THE STATISTICAL SURVEY Namen kvalitativne Ankete o poslovnih tendencah v trgovini na drobno (vprašalnik PA-TRG) je mesečno pridobivanje informacij o trenutnih stanjih glavnih ekonomskih kazalcev ter ocenitev njihovega gibanja v naslednjih mesecih. Rezultati anket so osnova za izračun kazalca zaupanja v trgovini na drobno in kazalca gospodarske klime, ki vključuje poleg kazalca zaupanja v trgovini na drobno tudi kazalec zaupanja pri potrošnikih in kazalec zaupanja v predelovalnih dejavnostih. The purpose of the qualitative Survey on Business Tendency (questionnaire PA-TRG) is to get monthly information about current situations of major economic indicators and to evaluate their movement in the following months. The results of the survey are the basis for evaluation of the confidence indicator in retail trade and latter on also for the sentiment indicator, which also includes the consumer confidence indicator and the confidence indicator in manufacturing. Panelno anketo o poslovnih tendencah v trgovini na drobno izvajamo v Sloveniji od januarja 1999 s poenotenim vprašalnikom, na podlagi poenotene metodologije in z enako periodiko, kakor jo izvajajo v državah članicah Evropske unije že več desetletij, kar omogoča neposredno primerljivost podatkov. We have been carrying out the Panel Survey on Business Tendency in Retail Trade in Slovenia since January 1999 with the harmonised questionnaire, methodology and periodicity, which have been used in EU Member States for several decades. Therefore, all data are directly comparable. ENOTA OPAZOVANJA OBSERVATION UNITS Opazujemo podjetja, ki so po Standardni klasifikaciji dejavnosti razvrščena v trgovino na drobno, in sicer v naslednja oddelka: − 50 - Prodaja, vzdrževanje in popravila motornih vozil; trgovina na drobno z motornimi gorivi, − 52 - Trgovina na drobno, razen z motornimi vozili; popravila izdelkov široke porabe. We are monitoring units that are registered in retail trade or sale of motor vehicles in the following divisions: − 50 - Sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles, retail sale of fuels − 52 - Retail trade, except of motor vehicles, repair of personal and household goods Vzorec podjetij je oblikovan na podlagi dveh meril: − razvrstitve trgovskega podjetja po SKD in − velikosti trgovskega podjetja (prihodek, skladno z zakonom o gospodarskih družbah). They were selected into the panel by two criteria: − the classification of the enterprise according to the Standard Classification of Activities (SCA) and − the size of the enterprises (turnover in accordance with the Law on Business Companies). VIRI SOURCES Na vprašalnik PA - TRG odgovarjajo direktorji podjetij ali drugi vodilni delavci med 1. in 10. v mesecu. Persons responding to the monthly PA-TRG questionnaire are managers of enterprises or other executives. They respond between the 1st and the 10th of the month. ZAJETJE COVERAGE V panelni vzorec smo zajeli vsa velika in srednje velika podjetja ter 26 % malih podjetij (ali 37 % prihodka malih podjetij), ki so razvrščena v dejavnost trgovine na drobno ali trgovine z motornimi vozili. Opisani panelni vzorec pokriva 36 % podjetij vzorčnega okvira ali 93 % prihodka v trgovini na drobno in trgovine z motornimi vozili. The panel includes all large and medium-sized enterprises and 26% of small enterprises (or 37% of their turnover), the principal activity of which is classified into retail trade and sale of motor vehicles. The panel covers 36% of enterprises of the studied population or 93% of turnover in retail trade and sale of motor vehicles. NAČIN ZBIRANJA PODATKOV METHOD OF DATA COLLECTION Anketo izvajamo mesečno po pošti. The survey is carried out monthly by mail. UTEŽEVANJE ODGOVOROV WEIGHTS FOR RESPONSES Odgovori so uteženi tako, da odražajo relativno pomembnost posameznega podjetja v vzorcu. Znotraj razredov SKD so odgovori uteženi s prihodkom. Responses to individual questions are weighted so that they reflect relative importance of an individual enterprise in the panel. Inside the SKD classes responses are weighted with the turnover. NEODGOVORI NON-RESPONSES Neodgovore vsak mesec obdelamo skladno s poenoteno metodologijo. Non-responses are processed every month in accordance with the harmonized methodology. DEFINICIJE IN POJASNILA DEFINITIONS AND EXPLANATIONS Ravnotežje je razlika med pozitivnimi in negativnimi odgovori, izraženimi v odstotkih. Ravnotežja prikazujejo gibanje opazovanih ekonomskih kazalcev (stanj in pričakovanj), ne pa dejanskih velikosti ekonomskih kazalcev. Grafikoni prikazujejo ravnotežja po posameznih vprašanjih. The balance is the difference between positive and negative answers, expressed in percent. The balance shows the movement of observed economic indicators (present situation and future expectations), and not the real size of economic indicators. The charts show the balance by individual questions. Statistične informacije, št. 384/2004 6 Rapid Reports No 384/2004 Na grafih so prikazane desezonirane vrednosti. To so vrednosti, pri katerih je izključen vpliv sezone, vsebujejo pa trend-cikel in naključno komponento. Podatki za EU so desezonirani z metodo DAINTIES, za Slovenijo pa z metodo TRAMO/SEATS, ki temelji na ARIMA modelih. Pri oblikovanju modelov smo upoštevali obdobje od januarja 1999 do januarja 2004. Pri prodajnih cenah, pričakovanih prodajnih cenah in ravni prodaje sezonska komponenta ni prisotna. Data in the charts are seasonally adjusted. Values are adjusted for the seasonal component and include the trend-cycle component and the irregular component. Data for the EU are seasonally adjusted by DAINTIES method and for Slovenia by TRAMO/SEATS method, which is based on ARIMA models. The designing of the models is based on the time period from January 1999 to January 2004. Selling prices, selling prices expectation and the level of sales have no seasonal component. Kazalec zaupanja je povprečje odgovorov (ravnotežij) na vprašanja o sedanjem in pričakovanem poslovnem položaju in sedanjem obsegu zalog (obrnjen predznak). The confidence indicator shows an average of responses (balances) to questions on present and expected business trend and present stock (the latter with inverted sign). OBJAVLJANJE REZULTATOV PUBLISHING Sodelujoči v anketi prejmejo informacijo o dejavnosti, v katero so uvrščeni. Persons participating in the survey get the information on the activity of their enterprises. Drugim uporabnikom so ti podatki dostopni na ravni trgovine na drobno in po velikostnih razredih podjetij. Objavljamo jih mesečno v Statističnih informacijah in podatkovni bazi SI-STAT (http://www.stat.si). Other users can get data for retail trade and data for large, medium-sized and small enterprises published monthly in Rapid Reports and in the SI- STAT database (http://www.stat.si/eng). VPRAŠANJA: QUESTIONS: − Ocene stanj: • Ocena poslovnega položaja v zadnjih 3 mesecih: dober, zadovoljiv - normalen glede na sezono, slab? • Prodajne cene so v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem: višje, enake, nižje? • Ocena finančnega položaja v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem: boljši, enak, slabši? • Ocena obsega zalog: premajhne, ustrezne - normalne glede na sezono, prevelike? • Ocena prodaje glede na isti mesec lanskega leta: na višji ravni, na isti ravni, na nižji ravni? − Appreciation of situation: • Assessment of the present business situation over the past 3 months: good, satisfactory (normal for the season), bad? • Selling prices compared to the last month: up, unchanged, down? • Assessment of financial situation compared to the last month: better, same, worse? • Assessment of stocks: too small, adequate (normal for the season), too large? • Assessment of sales compared to the same month of the previous year: at a higer level, unchanged, at a lower level? − Pričakovanja v naslednjih mesecih: • Pričakovani poslovni položaj čez 6 mesecev: boljši, enak, slabši? • Pričakovane prodajne cene v naslednjih mesecih: višje, enake, nižje? • Pričakovano zaposlovanje v naslednjih 3 mesecih: povečalo, ostalo enako, zmanjšalo? • Pričakovani obseg skupne nabave (tuji in domači dobavitelji) v naslednjih 3 meseci: večji, enak, manjši? • Pričakovano povpraševanje v naslednjih 3 mesecih: povečalo, ostalo enako, zmanjšalo? − Expectation in the next months: • Expected business situation 6 months ahead: better, same, worse? • Selling price expectations for the next months: up, unchanged, down? • Employment expectations for the next 3 months: up, unchanged, down? • Expectations on orders to place with total suppliers (domestic and foreign) in the next 3 months: up, unchanged, down? • Expected demand for the next 3 months: up, unchanged, down? • Ocena konkurence na vašem področju glede na pretekli mesec: večja, enaka, manjša? • Ocena gibanja prodaje za to obdobje leta: dobro, zadovoljivo, slabo? • Dejavniki, ki ovirajo izboljšanje sedanjega položaja: ni omejitev, nizko povpraševanje, slaba ponudba, visoki stroški dela, visoka cena denarja, težka dostopnost do bančnih kreditov, premajhna prodajna površina, premajhni skladiščni prostori, konkurenca v sektorju, ostalo? • Pričakovani obseg nabave pri domačih dobaviteljih v naslednjih 3 mesecih: večji, enak, manjši, nimamo domačih dobaviteljev? • Pričakovani obseg nabave pri tujih dobaviteljih v naslednjih 3 mesecih: večji, enak, manjši, nimamo tujih dobaviteljev? • Assessment of competition in own sector compared to the last month: up, unchanged, down? • Assessment of sales for this period of year: good, satisfactory, bad? • Factors limiting the improvement of the present business situation: none, low demand, bad supply, high labour costs , high costs of finance, problems with access to bank credits, small sales surface, small storage capacity, competition in own sector, other? • Expectations on orders to place with domestic suppliers in the next 3 months: up, unchanged, down, no domestic suppliers? • Expectations on orders to place with foreign suppliers in the next 3 months: up, unchanged, down, no foreign suppliers? Statistične informacije, št. 384/2004 Rapid Reports No 384/2004 7 KOMENTAR COMMENT V decembru 2004 je bila desezonirana vrednost kazalca zaupanja v trgovini na drobno glede na pretekli mesec višja za 2 odstotni točki. V primerjavi z lanskim decembrom se je dvignila za 3 odstotne točke, glede na lansko povprečje pa za 5 odstotnih točk. In December 2004 the seasonally adjusted retail trade confidence indicator rose by 2 percentage points compared to November 2004. Compared to December 2003 it rose by 3 percentage points while compared to last year's average its value climbed by 5 percentage points. Na dvig vrednosti kazalca zaupanja je vplivalo izboljšanje kazalcev pričakovanega poslovnega položaja in obsega zalog. Kazalec sedanji poslovni položaj se je poslabšal. This development of the confidence indicator was determined by the improvement of the indicators of the expected business situation and the volume of stocks. On the other hand, the indicator of the present business situation deteriorated. Polovica kazalcev stanj se je poslabšala, druga polovica pa izboljšala. Kazalci pričakovanj so se večinoma izboljšali. Izjema sta bila kazalca pričakovane prodajne cene in pričakovano povpraševanje, ki sta se poslabšala. Half of the indicators of the present business situation worsened, the second half improved. Improvements were also recorded for most indicators of the expected business situation. Exceptions were indicators of expected selling prices and expected demand, which showed a decline. PRIČAKOVANJA EXPECTATIONS PRIČAKOVANI POSLOVNI POLOŽAJ EXPECTED BUSINESS SITUATION Desezonirana vrednost kazalca pričakovanega poslovnega položaja se je zvišala v vseh treh primerjavah. V primerjavi s preteklim mesecem se je dvignila za 2 odstotni točki, glede na lanski december za 3 odstotne točke in glede na lansko povprečje za 5 odstotnih točk. The seasonally adjusted value of the expected business situation indicator rose in all three comparisons. Compared to the previous month it increased by 2 percentage points, compared to December 2003 by 3 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 5 percentage points. PRIČAKOVANE PRODAJNE CENE SELLING PRICES EXPECTATIONS V primerjavi s preteklim mesecem se je desezonirana vrednost kazalca pričakovanih prodajnih cen močno poslabšala, in sicer za 12 odstotnih točk. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lanskega leta pa je bila vrednost kazalca višja za 6 odstotnih točk. Izrazito poslabšanje je bilo zabeleženo tudi glede na lansko povprečje, in sicer za 12 odstotnih točk. The seasonally adjusted value of the selling prices expectations indicator remarkably worsened, i.e. by 12 percentage points compared to the previous month. However, in comparison with December 2003 the value rose by 6 percentage points. A strong worsening was also recorded compared to last year’s average, i.e. by 12 percentage points. PRIČAKOVANO ZAPOSLOVANJE EXPECTED EMPLOYMENT Desezonirana vrednost kazalca pričakovanega zaposlovanja se je zvišala za 3 odstotne točke glede na pretekli mesec in se za 6 odstotnih točk znižala glede na isti mesec lanskega leta. Vrednost kazalca je ostala nespremenjena v primerjavi z lanskim povprečjem. The seasonally adjusted value of the expected employment indicator showed a rise by 3 percentage points in comparison with the previous month and a 6 percentage points decline compared to December 2003. The value remained the same as the last year’s average. PRIČAKOVANA SKUPNA NABAVA EXPECTED ORDERS Desezonirana vrednost kazalca pričakovane skupne nabave se je izboljšala v vseh primerjavah. V primerjavi z novembrom 2004 se je dvignila za 4 odstotne točke, v primerjavi z decembrom 2003 kar za 13 odstotnih točk in v primerjavi z lanskim povprečjem za 5 odstotnih točk. The seasonally adjusted value of the expected orders indicator improved in all three comparisons. In comparison with November 2004 by 4 percentage points, compared to December 2003 by 13 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 5 percentage points. PRIČAKOVANO POVPRAŠEVANJE EXPECTED DEMAND Desezonirana vrednost kazalca pričakovanega povpraševanja je bila v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem nižja za 1 odstotno točko. Glede na isti mesec lanskega leta in glede na lansko povprečje se je vrednost kazalca rahlo dvignila, in sicer za 1 odstotno točko v obeh primerjavah. The seasonally adjusted value of the expected demand indicator was down by 1 percentage point in comparison with the previous month. Compared to December 2003 and compared to last year’s average it showed slight increase, i.e. by 1 percentage point in both comparisons. STANJA SITUATION POSLOVNI POLOŽAJ BUSINESS SITUATION V decembru 2004 je bila desezonirana vrednost kazalca poslovnega položaja nižja za 1 odstotno točko v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lanskega leta je vrednost kazalca višja za 2 odstotni točki, v primerjavi z lanskim povprečjem pa je za 6 odstotnih točk. In December 2004 the seasonally adjusted value of the business situation indicator fell by 1 percentage point compared to the previous month. Compared to December 2003 it rose by 2 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 6 percentage points. Statistične informacije, št. 384/2004 8 Rapid Reports No 384/2004 PRODAJNE CENE SELLING PRICES Desezonirana vrednost kazalca prodajnih cen je pokazala izredno mesečno znižanje, in sicer za 19 odstotnih točk. Šibko izboljšanje vrednosti je bilo zabeleženo le glede na isti mesec lanskega leta (za 1 odstotno točko), saj je bila vrednost kar za 14 odstotnih točk nižja od lanskega povprečja. In a month-to-month comparison the seasonally adjusted value of the selling prices indicator showed a strong decrease, i.e. by 19 percentage points. A weak improvement of the value was recorded only compared to December 2003 (by 1 percentage point) while it was 14 percentage points below last year’s average. FINANČNI POLOŽAJ FINANCIAL SITUATION Desezonirana vrednost kazalca finančnega položaja se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem dvignila za 1 odstotno točko. V primerjavi z decembrom 2003 je bila nižja za 2 odstotni točki, medtem ko je bila 2 odstotni točki nad lanskim povprečjem. The seasonally adjusted value of the financial situation indicator rose by 1 percentage point compared to the previous month. Compared to December 2003 it edged down by 2 percentage points while it was 2 percentage points above last year’s average. OBSEG ZALOG PRESENT STOCKS Obseg zalog se je v splošnem zmanjšal, saj je bila desezonirana vrednost kazalca obsega zalog nižja v vseh treh primerjavah. Glede na pretekli mesec in glede na december 2003 je bila vrednost kazalca nižja za 5 odstotnih točk, glede na lansko povprečje pa za 1 odstotno točko. The volume of the present stocks diminished as the seasonally adjusted value of the present stocks indicator showed an overall reduction. Compared to the previous month and to December 2003 its value fell by 5 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 1 percentage point. RAVEN PRODAJE LEVEL OF SALES Desezonirana vrednost kazalca ravni prodaje se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem zelo izboljšala, in sicer za 11 odstotnih točk. Po drugi strani pa je bila njegova vrednost za 18 odstotnih točk nižja kot decembra 2003 in za 8 odstotnih točk višja od lanskega povprečja. The seasonally adjusted value of the level of sales indicator improved significantly (by 11 percentage points) compared to the previous month. On the other hand, it was 18 percentage points lower than in December 2003 and 8 percentage points higher than last year’s average. KONKURENČNOST COMPETITION Desezonirana vrednost kazalca konkurenčnosti je bila v primerjavi z novembrom 2004 višja za 1 odstotno točko. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani in z lanskim povprečjem pa je njegova vrednost padla, in sicer za 6 odstotnih točk oziroma 2 odstotni točki. The seasonally adjusted value of the competition indicator was 1 percentage point higher than in November 2004. Compared to December 2003 and to last year’s average its value fell by 6 and 2 percentage points, respectively. GIBANJE PRODAJE ZA TO OBDOBJE LETA EVOLUTION OF SALES FOR THIS PERIOD OF YEAR Desezonirana vrednost kazalca gibanja prodaje je padla tako v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem kot tudi v primerjavi z istim mesecem lanskega leta, in sicer za 3 odstotne točke oz. 14 odstotnih točk. Glede na lansko povprečje je ostala njegova vrednost nespremenjena. The seasonally adjusted value of the evolution of sales edged down in comparison with the previous month as well as with the same month last year, i.e. by 3 and 14 percentage points, respectively. The value remained the same in comparison with last year’s average. OMEJITVENI DEJAVNIKI V TRGOVINI NA DROBNO OBSTACLES IN RETAIL TRADE V trgovini na drobno se je 35 % podjetij (oz. 24 % prihodka) srečevalo z dejavniki iz skupine "hude omejitve". Tako v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem kot tudi z istim mesecem lanskega leta je bil delež teh podjetij za 1 odstotno točko višji. In retail trade 35% of enterprises (24% of turnover) were faced with “severe obstacles” in trading. Compared to the previous month and to the same month of the previous year the share of these enterprises was higher by 1 percentage point. Podjetij, ki so se srečevala s skupino dejavnikov "težave s ponudbo", je bilo 29 % (oz. 27 % prihodka). Delež teh podjetij se je glede na pretekli mesec znižal za 3 odstotne točke, prav toliko pa se je znižal tudi glede na isti mesec lanskega leta. The share of enterprises faced with “supply difficulties” was 29% (27% of turnover). This share fell by 3 percentage points compared to the previous month as well as compared to December 2003. Podjetij, ki so se srečevala s skupino dejavnikov "težave s povpraševanjem", je bilo 27 % (oz. 33 % prihodka), kar je bilo za 2 odstotni točki več kot v preteklem mesecu in kot v lanskem decembru. The share of enterprises faced with “demand difficulties” was 27% (33% of turnover), which was 2 percentage points more than in the previous month and in December 2003. Podjetij, ki niso imela omejitev v poslovanju, je bilo 9 % (oz.16 % prihodka). Delež teh podjetij je bil tako glede na pretekli mesec kot v lanskem decembru nespremenjen. Only 9% of enterprises (16% of turnover) experienced no obstacles. The share of these enterprises stayed the same as in the previous month as well as in December 2003. Statistične informacije, št. 384/2004 Rapid Reports No 384/2004 9 Podrobnejši pregled omejitvenih dejavnikov v trgovini na drobno1): − 46 % podjetij (ali 47 % prihodka) je omejevala konkurenca v sektorju, − 38 % podjetij (ali 33 % prihodka) so omejevali visoki stroški dela, − 34 % podjetij (ali 23 % prihodka) je omejevalo nezadostno povpraševanje, − 26 % podjetij (ali 30 % prihodka) je omejevala visoka cena denarja, − 15 % podjetij (ali 8 % prihodka) je omejevala premajhna prodajna površina, − 12 % podjetij (ali 7 % prihodka) je omejevala dostopnost do bančnih kreditov, − 10 % podjetij (ali 17 % prihodka) ni imelo omejitev v poslovanju, − 10 % podjetij (ali 4 % prihodka) so omejevali drugi dejavniki, kot so finančna nedisciplina, visoke najemnine, slaba lokacija itd., − 8 % podjetij (ali 3 % prihodka) so omejevali premajhni skladiščni prostori, − 3 % podjetij (ali 1 % prihodka) je omejevala slaba ponudba. A more detailed overview of obstacles in retail trade1) shows that: − 46% of enterprises (or 47% of turnover) were limited by competition in own sector, − 38% of enterprises (or 33% of turnover) were limited by high cost of labour, − 34% of enterprises (or 23% of turnover) were limited by insufficient demand, − 26% of enterprises (or 30% of turnover) were limited by high cost of money, − 15% of enterprises (or 8% of turnover) were limited by shortage of sales surface, − 12% of enterprises (or 7% of turnover) were limited by access to bank credits, − 10% of enterprises (or 17% of turnover) experienced no obstacles, − 10% of enterprises (or 4% of turnover) were limited by other factors such as lack of financial discipline, high rents, bad location, etc., − 8% of enterprises (or 3% of turnover) were limited by small storage capacity, − 3% of enterprises (or 1% of turnover) were limited by supply shortage. 1) Podjetja lahko označijo več dejavnikov, ki omejujejo njihovo poslovanje, zato vsota odstotkov ni 100. Enterprises can select several obstacles to their business, so the total is not 100%. Statistično raziskovanje je sofinancirala Evropska komisija. Za objavljene podatke in besedila je odgovoren izključno Statistični urad Republike Slovenije in ne Evropska komisija. The business survey is co-financed by the European Commission. However, the European Commission accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever with regard to the material published in this document. Sestavila / Prepared by: Darja Regoršek Izdaja, založba in tisk Statistični urad Republike Slovenije, Ljubljana, Vožarski pot 12 - Uporaba in objava podatkov dovoljena le z navedbo vira - Odgovarja generalna direktorica mag. Irena Križman - Urednica zbirke Statistične informacije Marina Urbas - Slovensko besedilo jezikovno uredila Ivanka Zobec - Angleško besedilo jezikovno uredil Boris Panič - Naklada 105 izvodov - ISSN zbirke Statistične informacije 1408-192X - ISSN podzbirke Trgovina in druge storitvene dejavnosti 1408-9327 - Informacije daje Informacijsko središče, tel.: (01) 241 51 04 - El. pošta: info.stat@gov.si - http://www.stat.si. Edited, published and printed by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, Ljubljana, Vožarski pot 12 - These data can be used provided the source is acknowledged - Director-General Irena Križman - Rapid Reports editor Marina Urbas - Slovene language editor Ivanka Zobec - English language editor Boris Panič - Total print run 105 copies - ISSN of Rapid Reports 1408- 192X - ISSN of subcollection Distributive trade and other service activities 1408- 9327 - Information is given by the Information Centre of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, tel.: +386 1 241 51 04 - E-mail: info.stat@gov.si - http://www.stat.si.