.^'IMAD O fü Q) £ u £ o o Ü) o u 0) > O cB fO .Q cu Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3826 No. 2 / Vol. XVIII / 2012 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Responsible Person: Boštjan Vasle, MSc, Director Editor in Chief: Jure Brložnik, MA Authors of Current Economic Trends (listed alphabetically): Marjan Hafner, Matevž Hribernik, Slavica Jurančič, Jasna Kondža, Janez Kušar, Mojca Lindič, MSc, Urška Lušina, MSc, Jože Markič, PhD, Tina Nenadič, MSc, Jure Povšnar, Ana T. Selan, MSc, Dragica Šuc, MSc , Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič, Miha Trošt Editorial Board: Lidija Apohal Vučkovič, Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Lejla Fajič, Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, Boštjan Vasle, MSc Translator: Marija Kavčič Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Bibijana Cirman Naglič Print: Circulation: 90 copies © The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the spotlight................................................................................................................................................................3 Current economic trends..............................................................................................................................................5 International environment...............................................................................................................................................7 Economic activity in Slovenia..........................................................................................................................................8 Labour market..................................................................................................................................................................14 Prices..................................................................................................................................................................................17 Balance of payments.......................................................................................................................................................18 Financial markets.............................................................................................................................................................20 Public finance....................................................................................................................................................................24 Boxes Box 1: Gross domestic product, Q4 2012.......................................................................................................................9 Box 2: Labour Force Survey - Q4 2011.........................................................................................................................14 Box 3: The quality of banks' assets in 2011.................................................................................................................23 Statistical appendix.....................................................................................................................................................27 On January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev.2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia, the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, which includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses, came into force on the mentioned date. In the Slovenian Economic Mirror, all analyses are based on the SKD 2008, except when the previous SKD 2002 classification is explicitly referred to. More general information about the introduction of the new classification is available on the SORS website http://www.stat.si/eng/ skd nace 2008.asp. All seasonally adjusted data in the Economic Mirror are calculations by IMAD. In the spotlight Economic activity in the euro area declined in the final quarter of last year and, as expected, the European Commission revised downwards its forecasts for 2012. GDP in the euro area dropped 0.3% in the last quarter of 2011 (seasonally adjusted), while it was up 0.7% year-on-year. Amid a continuation of adverse financial market conditions, low business and household confidence and a deteriorating global economic outlook, the EC cut its forecasts for 2012, as expected, predicting GDP in the euro area to decline by 0.3%. At the end of February, the ECB conducted the second longer-term refinancing operation, offering 530 bn in loans to banks for a period of three years. Notwithstanding the measures to boost liquidity in the banking sector, a possible further tightening of the financial and debt crisis continues to pose the main risk that growth may be even lower than anticipated. Oil prices also represent a risk, as oil prices in euros hit record highs in the first two months of this year. The decline in economic activity in Slovenia deepened further in the last quarter of 2011, largely due to a drop in domestic consumption, while GDP shrank by 0.2% in 2011. With the materialisation of certain risks identified in our winter forecast, GDP dropped by 0.7% in the final quarter of last year (seasonally adjusted) and was 2.8% lower year-on-year. Despite a pronounced slowdown, exports remained the sole factor of growth. On the other hand, domestic final consumption recorded a decline, as household and government consumption were down year-on-year. Amid a further y-o-y drop in gross fixed capital formation, in the last quarter, unlike in the first three quarters, a negative contribution to GDP volume also came from changes in inventories. All of these factors increase the risks for this year's growth. The labour market situation remained tight at the end of 2011 and at the beginning of 2012. The number of employed persons excluding self-employed farmers fell further in the last quarter of 2011 (-0.3%, seasonally adjusted). In the year as a whole, it declined most notably in construction and market services, while the drop in manufacturing was smaller than in the preceding two years. On the other hand, employment increased most notably in agriculture, education, professional, scientific and technical activities, and in health and social work. A total of 115,965 persons were registered as unemployed at the end of January, 0.7% more than in January 2011. The growth of the average gross wage in 2011 relied entirely on wage growth in the private sector, as wage growth in the public sector again remained unchanged last year. Wage movements at the end of the year were, as usual, marked by extraordinary payments, but these were the lowest in six years. They totalled EUR 96.7 m, almost EUR 60 m less than in 2007 when they were highest. Growth in last year's total average gross wage (2.0%) otherwise resulted from 2.6% nominal growth in the private sector, as the wage level in the public sector remained unchanged for the third year in a row. Y-o-y inflation rose to 2.9% in February. The increase in y-o-y inflation from 2.3% to 2.9% was largely a consequence of the base effect and is transitory. In the short term, the movement of consumer prices is mainly impacted by prices of liquid fuels, which rose by around 6% in the first two months. In the long term, it is still under the influence of subdued economic activity reflected in the moderate movement of core inflation, which totalled around 2% year-on-year. After a substantial tightening at the end of last year, the lending activity strengthened slightly in January but the situation remains unfavourable. January's net flow of loans to domestic non-banking sectors totalled EUR 55.2 m. We estimate that following the extensive deleveraging at the end of last year, enterprises substituted part of the repaid loans by borrowing in January, when the liquidity conditions in the banking system improved owing to ECB measures. Corporate net repayments at home and abroad otherwise doubled last year, totalling just shy of EUR 800 m. The quality of banks' assets continued to deteriorate, as bad claims reached EUR 5.5 bn at the end of December 2011, which is 11.2% of total banking sector claims. Banks continued to create provisions and impairments in January. At EUR 30.8 m, these were otherwise more than 15% lower than last January but still much higher than at the same time in preceding years. In the first eleven months of last year, consolidated general government revenue was up 4.1% and expenditure was up 0.7% year-on-year. The deficit of the consolidated balance amounted to EUR 1,386 m. Among revenues, particularly revenue from corporate income tax increased in the first eleven months of last year. Looking at expenditures, the largest increases were recorded for expenditures on interest and transfers to individuals and the unemployed, while expenditures on capital and capital transfers and subsidies saw the largest declines. In the first eleven months of 2011, the transfer from the state budget into the pension fund (EUR 1,355 m) exceeded the state budget deficit. ■ö £ Q) E o £ O u Q) £ Q) 3 U International environment Economic activity in Slovenia's main trading partners declined in Q4 2011 and the new forecasts by the European Commission are lower than in the autumn, as expected. In the euro area, the volume of industrial production and new orders in manufacturing declined in Q4 2011. The values of construction put in place and turnover in retail trade dropped as well (seasonally adjusted). According to Eurostat's flash estimate, GDP in the euro area thus shrank by 0.3% in the last quarter of 2011 (seasonally adjusted), being up 0.7% y-o-y. Relative to Q3, GDP dropped in most of Slovenia's trading partners, due to lower exports also in Germany. Amid a deterioration of economic activity, the EC cut its forecasts for this year's GDP growth in February, as expected. It predicts GDP to contract in nine EU Member States in 2012, while it will stagnate in the rest, or see lower growth than anticipated in the autumn. Lower forecasts are related to further tensions on financial markets, low business and consumer confidence and a deteriorating outlook for the global economy. The downside risks to growth remain high, according to the EC, particularly the risk of a possible intensification of the debt crisis. On the other hand, the improvement in some confidence indicators in recent months (Ifo, PMI) shows a gradual stabilisation of the situation, although at a low level. Figure 1: Economic growth in Slovenia's main trading partners ■ Q1 11 102 11 BOB 11 104 11 Table 1: Comparison of GDP growth forecasts by international institutions 2012 OECD Nov 11 IMAD Jan 12 IMF Jan 12 CONS Feb 12 EC Feb 12 EMU 0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 EU N/A 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 DE 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.6 IT -0.5 -1.0 -2.2 -1.4 -1.3 AT 0.6 0.8 N/A 0.5 0.7 FR 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 UK 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 US 2.0 2.1 1.8 2.2 N/A Source: OECD Economic Outlook (November 2012), IMAD Winter Forecast of Economic Trends (January 2012), IMF World Economic Outlook Update (January 2012), Consesus Forecasts (February 2012), EC Interim Forecast (February 2012). aggravated access to market financing and their poor liquidity position. Furthermore, banks also tightened their credit standards for households, particularly for housing loans. Demand for loans declined markedly in Q4 2011. According to ECB data, net repayments of loans in the euro area were highest since the beginning of the crisis in 2008. For Q1 2012, banks expect a further tightening of credit standards and a further decline in loan demand. Figure 2: The ECB Euro Area Bank Lending Survey Credit standards for loans to enterprises over the past 3-m. (left axis) -Credit standards for loans to enterprises over the next 3-m. (left axis) - Demand for loans to enterprises over the past 3 months (rigth axis) Demand for loans to enterprises over the next 3 months (right axis) Germany France Source: Eurostat. O O O Source: ECB. The lending conditions for enterprises and households tightened further in Q4 2011 and the net flow of loans in the euro area was negative. According to the ECB Euro Area Bank Lending Survey, in Q4 the number of euro area banks reporting a tightening of credit standards was 35% higher than the number of those that reported an easing (16% in Q3). The credit standards deteriorated for loans of all maturities and all enterprises, regardless of size. Among the main reasons, banks once again cited low expectations regarding general economic activity, The required yields of government bonds declined in February, but remain at high levels. The slight decline was mainly due to two reasons, the longer-term refinancing operation for a period of three years conducted by the ECB in December and more decisive action towards fiscal consolidation taken by the governments (particularly in Italy and Spain). The required yield of government bonds remains by far the highest in Greece. In February, additional financial assistance was approved to Greece, in the amount of EUR 130 bn, and a EUR 107 bn write- down on debt by private creditors. In February, the ECB continued with the Securities Markets Programme, albeit at a fairly limited level, as the amount of the purchased government bonds was lowest since the programme had been reinstated in July 2011 (a mere EUR 183 m). At the end of February, the ECB carried out the second longer-term financing operation with a maturity of three years. Similar to December, funds were available in an unlimited amount, and 800 banks borrowed EUR 530 bn at an interest rate of 1.0%. Figure 3: 10-year government bond yield spread vis-avis German bonds 12 J3 1 6 Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. February saw further cuts in interbank interest rates in the euro area. In February, the three-month EURIBOR declined by an average of 17 b.p. to 1.05%, and in the last five months by as much as 53 b.p. The three-month USD LIBOR rate also declined (by 6 b.p., to 0.51%), while the CHF LIBOR rate was slightly higher than in January (by 2 b.p., to 0.08%). For the first time in five months, the euro appreciated against most main global currencies in February. The average exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar rose slightly in February (by 2.5%, to USD 1.325 to EUR 1), being was down 3.1% y-o-y. The euro also gained value against the Japanese yen (by 4.5%, to JPY 103.77 to EUR 1), the British pound sterling (by 0.6%, to GDP 0.837 to EUR 1), while it depreciated slightly against the Swiss franc (by 0.3%, to CHF 1.21 to EUR 1). Oil prices rose significantly in February, while the increase in non-energy prices was smaller. Dollar prices of Brent crude oil surged in February, by 6.3% to USD 117.6 per barrel in the month as a whole, and were up 13.4% y-o-y. Oil prices in euros exceeded the highest values seen mid-2008, having risen to EUR 89.7 a barrel, on average, in the month as a whole. This is 4.0% more than in January, but the increase in euro prices was, to some extent, offset by a higher value of the euro against the US dollar. According to the most recent IMF figures, dollar prices of non-energy commodities rose by 2.8% in January, largely on account of higher prices of industrial goods, particularly metals, and were down 13.9% y-o-y. According to preliminary data, they rose slightly again in February. Figure 4: Prices of Brent crude oil and the USD/EUR exchange rate -Price in EUR (left axis) ■ Price in USD (left axis) - Exchange rate of USD to EUR (right axis) 1.2 o 85 85 ;= J^ J; J^ Source: ECB, EIA; calculations by IMAD. Economic developments in Slovenia Merchandise trade slowed further in the last quarter of 2011, as expected.1 Real merchandise exports, which had been slowing steadily last year, declined slightly in Q4 (-0.4%, seasonally adjusted) amid the slowdown or contraction of economic activity in Slovenia's main trading partners. Real merchandise imports stagnated (0.1%, seasonally Figure 5: Merchandise trade - real 4,800 a a Source: SORS. 1 According to the National Accounts Statistics. 1.6 14 1.4 10 1.0 8 2 0 Box 1: Gross domestic product, Q4 2012 Amid the deepening decline of economic activity in the fourth quarter last year, which mainly reflected lower domestic consumption, Slovenia's GDP dropped 0.2% last year. GDP was declining in all 2011 quarters, in the fourth quarter by 0.7% relative to the third (seasonally adjusted). It was down 2.8% from the same quarter of 2010, due to the materialisation of certain risks highlighted in our Winter Forecast. Foreign trade remained the sole contributor to growth, despite a severe moderation of exports. Namely, exports of goods and services, having still been up 11.0% y-o-y in Q1 2011, were only 3.0% higher y-o-y in Q4. Amid an even greater deceleration in growth in imports, which were only 0.3% higher y-o-y in Q4, net exports contributed 1.8 p.p. to economic growth. The last quarter saw a sizeable decline in final consumption (-2.1% y-o-y), which had stagnated in the preceding quarters. Household consumption, having still recorded modest growth in the first three quarters of 2011, was down 1.8% from the same quarter of 2010. Government consumption (-2.6% y-o-y) shrank even more than in previous quarters, which is related to the adopted savings measures to contain budgetary expenditure at the end of last year. Investments, which have declined more than 40% during the crisis, otherwise recorded a somewhat smaller drop in the last quarter of 2011, but it still totalled 6.9% (y-o-y). After contributing nearly two p.p. to GDP volume in the first three quarters of 2011, changes in inventories lowered GDP volume by 1.3 p.p. in the fourth quarter. In the last quarter of 2011, economic activity also shrank in the euro area as a whole (-0.3%, seasonally adjusted). At the yearly level, GDP was 1.4% higher than in 2010, and Slovenia remained in the group of EU Member States with the largest declines in economic activity during the crisis. Value added was down 2.0% y-o-y in Q42011. The largest decline was still posted in the construction sector, while manufacturing recorded an even larger y-o-y drop than in Q3. Having stagnated relative to Q3, value added in manufacturing was 2.6% lower y-o-y. The y-o-y drop remained largest in construction (-15.5%), but was again smaller than in the preceding quarter. Value added was also down y-o-y in market services, with the exception of real estate activities. In public services y-o-y growth eased slightly but remains positive. Figure 6: GDP in Slovenia and its main trading partners —•— Slovenia 103 102 101 100 99 98 97 96 95 , 94 93 92 91 ----Italy - Germany - Austria - France ■ Hrvaška y^» \ TC. ^ ______—V vvK __——-— — ; aaaaaaaaaaaaaa Source: Eurostat; calculations by I MAD. adjusted) due to lower exports and continued weak domestic demand. Real growth in merchandise exports moderated in 2011, totalling 7.7% (in 2011: 11.0%). The same goes for growth in merchandise imports, which totalled 5.7% (2010: 8.0%). Nominal seasonally adjusted data2 show a decline in merchandise exports to all main groups of countries. Merchandise exports to the euro area eased at the end 2 Detailed data on exports by SITC and countries according to the external trade statistics are available for eleven months of last year. Seasonally adjusted data are classified in seven sections: (0-4) primary commodities, (5) chemicals and related products, (67, 68 in 69) iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, manufactures of metals, n.e.s., (6-67, 68, 69) manufactures Figure 7: Expenditure structure of Slovenia's GDP ■ Private consumption ■ Gross fixed capital formation I Exports of goods and services -GDP real growth (right axis) ^■Government consumption ooo( Chang. in invent. and valuables Imports of goods and services 8 6 4 2 0 -2 1^ -4 Q. Q -6 ^^ cu -8 -10 a a Source: SORS. of last year. The slight growth of exports to Germany otherwise continued, but it slowed significantly in the second half of 2011, after still being high in the first half. Exports to Germany grew on the back of further growth in exports of machinery and transport equipment, but also road vehicles. Combined, these exports represent around one half of Slovenia's exports to Germany. Exports to Austria continued to grow at a relatively strong pace. Following the fall in Q3, exports to France also increased, as a result of higher road vehicle exports, classified by material excluding iron and steel, non-ferrous metals and manufactures of metal, (78) road vehicles, (7-78) machinery and transport equipment excluding road vehicles, (8 in 9) miscellaneous manufactured articles and commodities and transactions. 90 -12 which account for more than half of Slovenia's exports to France. Conversely, exports to Italy dropped in Q4 2011 after the increase in Q3, which was more a result of a one-off factor,3 in our estimate. Exports to EU countries outside the euro area also declined, which was likely due to the accelerated appreciation of the euro against these countries' currencies in the last quarter of 2011. Growth in exports to the countries of the former Yugoslavia eased in Q4 2011, amid a more moderate growth in exports of primary commodities and further low growth in exports of chemical products, which together represent almost half of Slovenia's exports to these countries. Figure 8: Goods exports - geographical distribution - Euro area countries - EU countries outside the euro area ■ Countries of the former Yugoslavia ^^ jš Source: SURS; cakulations by IMAD. Table 2: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia in % 2010 XII 11/ XI 11 XII 11/ XII 10 I-XII 11/ I-XII 10 Exports1 12.2 -11.5 3.9 11.5 -goods 13.7 -16.1 4.8 12.4 -services 6.6 10.9 0.5 7.8 Imports1 14.3 -4.2 4.8 10.6 -goods 16.1 -7.9 6.4 12.2 -services 4.5 24.7 -3.1 1.5 Industrial production 6.2 0.92 -2.93 3.23 -manufacturing 6.6 1.62 -1.93 3.33 Construction -value of construction put in place -16.9 -8.12 -21.93 -25.43 Real turnover in retail trade -0.2 -1.92 0.73 1.83 Nominal turnover market services (without distributive trades) 6.5 -2.32 1.13 4.43 Sources: BS, Eurostat, SORS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1balance of payments statistics, ^seasonally adjusted, 3working-day adjusted data. Nominal seasonally adjusted data4 indicate a moderation of imports for all end-use product groups. The decline in imports of intermediate goods, which account for nearly two thirds of total imports, is linked to stagnation in manufacturing production. Imports of consumer goods also dropped, as a result of subdued domestic consumption. Having already declined in the preceding two quarters, imports of investment goods decreased even more notably in Q4 2011, reflecting a further contraction in investment activity. Figure 9: Imports of goods by end-use product ----Intermediate goods 110 105 100 95 90 85 Ö 80 75 - Intermediate goods • Investment goods 1 Ü 85 ;= ji ji So urce: SURS; calculations by I MAD. Real growth in services exports strengthened in Q4 2011, while imports decreased slightly (seasonally adjusted).5 According to the balance of payments statistics, nominal growth in services exports was again largely due to further growth of their main component, exports of travel services. Exports of other services6 also rose after dropping in the preceding quarter, while exports of transport services decreased substantially. According to the balance of payments statistics, imports of services otherwise decreased in Q4 of 2011, but they have, with minor oscillations, maintained roughly the same level since the beginning of 2009. Imports of transport services grew somewhat once again, as did imports of other business services. On the other hand, there was a decline in imports of travel and all other services. Real growth7 in services exports slowed to 3.6% in 2011 (2010: 4.1%), while imports declined by 1.4% (2010: 2.6%). 3 August 2011 witnessed a significant increase in exports of oil seeds and oleaginous fruits to Italy. 4 Detailed data on merchandise imports according to the external trade statistics are available for eleven months of last year. 5 According to the National Accounts Statistics. 6 When seasonally adjusting data, we included communication, construction, financial, computer and information activities, personal service activities, arts, entertainment and recreation activities, government services, insurances and licences, patents and copyrights. Combined, they account for just over a tenth of services exports. 7 According to the National Accounts Statistics. 70 65 60 55 Figure 10: Trade in services 1,400 1,300 , 1,200 1,100 ;;; 1,000 äE a a a Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. In Q4 2011, production volume in manufacturing remained as the same level as in the previous quarter when it had declined more substantially for the first time since the beginningof2010(seasonallyadjusted). Production in high-technology industries stagnated in Q4 2011. In 2011 as a whole, production increased in most of these industries (except in the manufacture of transport equipment8) and remained above the level seen before the beginning of Figure 11: Production in manufacturing according to technology intensity 1 Medium-high-anc high-tech industries Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. the crisis (except in the manufacture of machinery and equipment9). Production in medium-low-technology industries declined once again in Q4 2011 and the lag of these industries behind the pre-crisis levels increased by the end of the year (with the exception of the metal industry). In the second half of the year, their production also dropped y-o-y, particularly in the manufacture of rubber and plastic products and non-metal mineral products. Production in low-technology industries stagnated in Q4 2011, after the deceleration of growth in Q3. In 2011 as a whole, these industries reduced, for the first time, their lags behind the pre-crisis levels, largely on account of the leather and food-processing industries. Because of the increase in the first half of last year, the total manufacturing production in 2011 was 3.2% higher than a year earlier (working day adjusted). A greater lag of some industries of lower technology intensity behind the pre-crisis production levels is also due to their predominant orientation towards the domestic market. In 2011, revenues from sales on the domestic market, which had declined in the second half of last year, remained at a similar average level as in the preceding two years. Revenues from sales on foreign markets, which are mainly generated by medium-high- and high-technology industries, increased again in 2011 as a whole, despite the decline in the third quarter (-1.3%, seasonally adjusted). Figure 12: Revenues from sales according to geographical orientation and production volume according to technology intensity 10 At home Abroad Low- Medium- Medium- technology low- high-and industries technology high- industries technology industries Revenues from sales Production volume Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 8 The manufacture of transport equipment fell behind the 2010 levels due to the decline in the second half of the year when production volume adjusted to the impact of the natural disaster in Japan, which disrupted electronics supply, and weaker demand. In 2010, certain countries (France, the Netherlands, Great Britain, Spain) still subsidised purchases of new personal cars and light commercial vehicles (furthermore, France also subsidised purchases of new road vehicles ordered by the end of 2010 in the first quarter of 2011). 9 The manufacture of machinery and equipment, which also lags most notably behind the average 2008 production level in the EU-27 as a whole. In our estimate, the sluggish recovery of production in this industry may also reflect low investment activity during the crisis. Production in Slovenia is recovering at a slower pace than, on average, in the EU-27. In the second half of 2011, Slovenia's production was declining, while EU-27 production maintained roughly the same level, on average, after the increase at the beginning of the year. In 2011 as a whole, Slovenia's production was down 11.0% from the 2008 average (production in the EU-27 by 3.8%, on average). Slovenia still lagged more behind the EU-27 and 2008 levels than other new Member States, most of which have already exceeded the production levels seen in 2008. Last year, the 2008 levels were reached in Austria and Germany, while in France and Italy, the other two main trading partners from the euro area, production was still lower than in 2008. Figures 13 : Production volume in manufacturing in Slovenia and the EU-27 ;5 90 85 80 75 iij iiä ii^ Hj f? E;: Ji, ^^^ Ji? >3 Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Note: * Data untill November 2011. In Q4 2011, construction activity remained around the same level as in the preceding quarter. After recording strong growth in November (23.7%, seasonally adjusted), the value of construction put in place declined in December (-8.1%, seasonally adjusted). Owing to an intense fall in previous quarters (Q2 2011 in particular), construction activity was down 19.3% y-o-y in Q4 2011, recording what was otherwise the smallest y-o-y decline in 2011. In the last quarter, activity increased in civil engineering (by 7.2%, seasonally adjusted), while declining in the construction of buildings. In non-residential construction (-5.2%), the shrinkage was due to lower activity in the construction of buildings for service activities, while the decline in residential construction (-23.9%) was mainly related to the stocks of unsold flats. The prospects for construction activity remain uncertain. The total floor area for buildings planned by issued building permits declined further last year (-17.9%; -52.5% in four years). A significant reduction in the total planned floor area was recorded for residential buildings (-29.2%) and Figure 14: Value of construction put in place -Total -----Residential buildings -Non-residential buildings ---------Civil engineering works 110 100 90 Tl 80 50 40 30 20 a a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. a much smaller decline for non-residential buildings (-3.5%). The latter saw a sizeable drop in the floor area planned for buildings for service activities (-72.4%), while the planned floor area for industrial buildings increased to a similar extent as a year before. Amid minor fluctuation, turnover stagnated in the last quarter and in 2011 as a whole in all three trade sectors. Real turnover in the sale and repair of motor vehicles otherwise increased somewhat in Q4 2011 (seasonally adjusted), but remained at roughly the same level as at the beginning of the year due to the fluctuations in previous months. With a lower number of sold cars,10 turnover in the year as a whole was almost 7% higher than in 2010.11 Real turnover in retail trade dropped again in Q4 after Q3 growth, and remained at the level recorded at the beginning of the year. Within this sector, turnover in automotive fuels continued to grow, in our estimate also as a result of lower prices of certain automotive fuels in Slovenia than in the neighbouring countries at the end of last year. In other retail trade sectors, i.e. in the sale of non-food and food products, the negative movements, which were even more pronounced at the end of the year, persisted owing to continued labour market tensions. Turnover in these two industries also declined relative to 2010, most notably in the sale of furniture, household appliances and construction material (by a tenth), which is attributable to declining construction activity and In 2011, the total number of new passenger car registrations was 1.7% lower than in 2010; registrations by natural persons dropped by 12.6%, while registrations by legal persons increased by 6.8%. The sale of small and medium-sized passenger cars dropped, in particular, according to data from the Motor Vehicles Section at the Chamber of Commerce. 11 Nominal turnover in this industry was 4.5% higher than in 2010. As a result of a decline in the prices of cars (according to the consumer price statistics, the prices of new passenger cars were 1.2% and the prices of used cars 8.2% lower in 2011 than in 2010), turnover was nearly 7% higher in real terms in this period. reduced purchases of durable goods. Turnover in this trade sector has already been shrinking since the latter half of 2008 and lags nearly a third behind what it was in 2008. Turnover in specialised stores selling computer and telecommunication equipment, books, sports equipment and toys also declined relative to the year before. On the other hand, turnover increased once again last year in specialised stores selling pharmaceutical, medicinal and cosmetic products, and in those selling textile, clothing and leather products. Turnover in retail trade by mail order or internet also picked up after the decline in 2009 and 2010. Nominal turnover in wholesale trade expanded in Q4 due to October's increase, but remained at the same level as at the beginning of the year due to the fluctuations in previous months. Turnover grew (by 6.0%) relative to the previous year, but was still more than 17% lower than in 2008 at the end of the year, recording the largest lag in all three main trade sectors. Figure 15: Turnover in trade sectors -Retail trade, real -----Automotive fuels, real -----Sale, repair of motor vehicles, real -Wholesale trade, nom. 105 a a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. After a strong increase in the first quarter and somewhat weaker increases in the following two, nominal turnover in market services (excluding distributive trade)12 declined in the fourth quarter of 2011 and was 3.1% below the average level in 2008. Turnover dropped in all main market services, also in transportation and storage (by 1.9%), where it had been growing almost without interruption since spring 2009 and had contributed the most to turnover growth in market services. Transportation and storage is the only activity to exceed the 2008 average, by 7.0%. Within this sector, it was particularly turnover in land transport that declined in Q4. After increasing in the previous three quarters, turnover in accommodation and food service activities recorded a relatively sharp drop in the last quarter, which we estimate was due to a decline in foreign tourist overnight stays.13 The drop in turnover in information and communication services slowed from the previous quarter, chiefly due to increased turnover in computer programming in the last quarter. In professional and technical services, the drop reflected the decline in turnover in legal and accounting activities, which was larger than growth in turnover in architectural and engineering activities. The most diverse turnover dynamics were recorded in administrative and support service activities (N). Within market services, turnover in employment activities increased most notably relative to the 2008 average (13.3%), while turnover in travel agencies posted the largest decline (-29.7%). The former has to do with a growing number of the unemployed, while the latter is also reflected in lower imports from travel. Nominal turnover in market services rose by 4.5% in 2011, of which by more than a tenth in transportation and storage activities. The changes in the remaining four main sectors of market services were smaller. Figure 16: Nominal turnover in market services (without distributive trade) - Total - Transportation and storage (H) -----Accommodation and food service activities (I) -----Communication activ. (J) Professional, technical activ. (M) 75 a a a Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. The value of the sentiment indicator remained low in February (seasonally adjusted). The confidence in manufacturing deteriorated, while consumer confidence remained at the same, albeit low, level. The confidence in retail trade, services and construction improved slightly, but the majority of managers in the latter two sectors still evaluate their business situation as bad. 12 Activities from H to N subject to the Council Regulation (EC) No. 1165/98 concerning short-term statistics. 13 In 2011 as a whole, turnover in accommodation and food service activities was 3.6% higher than a year earlier. We estimate that turnover growth in the year as a whole mainly came from foreign tourists, as their overnight stays increased by more than 9%, while the number of domestic tourists' overnight stays remained at the same level as in the previous year. 95 90 85 80 75 70 Figure 17: Business trends 40 20 ^^ -10 ^-20 -40 -50 CQ -60 -70 - Economic sentiment • Retail trade - Construction - Manufacturing - Service act. Consumers Ill 1 A A; ^^......'.....A\\ 4........ .......^ ^^S ! Source: SORS. Labour market The number of employed persons according to the statistical register14 also dropped in the last quarter of 2011 (-0.3%, seasonally adjusted). It had been declining throughout the year and was 0.9% lower y-o-y in December. Last year's decline in formal employment was due to a lower number of persons employed in enterprises and organisations and with sole proprietors, while the number of self-employed persons increased. Looking at activities, in the year 2011 as a whole, employment dropped most notably in construction, manufacturing and most market services (particularly Box 2: Labour Force Survey - Q4 2011 Unfavourable labour market conditions are also reflected in Labour Market Survey results. The number of unemployed persons according to the Survey (89,000) increased significantly in Q4 2011 (5.6%, seasonally adjusted), and also remains higher y-o-y (9.9%). According to original data, unemployment increased more for women than for men, while the total number of unemployed persons was highest since 1993 when the Labour Force Survey started to be conducted in Slovenia. In Q4 2011, the number of employed persons according to the Survey was roughly the same as in Q3 but remained lower than in the same period of 2010 (-3.1%). A larger quarterly drop in survey employment in comparison with employment according to the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE) suggests that the volume of informal work decreased somewhat in the last quarter of 2011.1 The survey unemployment rate also rose in Q4 2011 (by 0.4 p.p. to 8.6%, seasonally adjusted) and also remained higher y-o-y (by 0.2 p.p.). According to original data, the activity rate and the employment rate according to the Labour Force Survey declined relative to the previous quarter (by 0.1 p.p. to 58.1% and by 0.7 p.p. to 53.0%, respectively). 1 In addition to employed and self-employed persons, the number of employed persons according to the Labour Force Survey also includes informal employment such as occasional work, work by unpaid family workers and similar, but it does not include temporarily employed foreigners. in the sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles), while increasing the most in agriculture, education, professional, scientific and technical activities, and health and social work. The registered unemployment rate increased somewhat again in Q4 2011, totalling 11.9% (seasonally adjusted). Figure 18: Seasonally adjusted labour market movements ^^M Empioyed according to SRE, left axis Employed according to LFS, left axis -Registered unemployed, right axis 2 5 -Unemployed according to LFS, right axis 2.0 # 1.5 1.0 0.5 Ü 0.0 -0.5 a a a Source: SORS, ESS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 19: Change in the number of employed persons by activity ^04 10/Q4 09 Q1 11/Q1 10 »02 11/Q2 10 ■ Q3 11/Q3 10 ■Q4 11/Q4 10 6 20 4 16 2 12 1= 8 o i? 0 4 C -2 0 (D ^ C ro -C -4 -4 -6 -8 -8 -12 -10 -16 -12 -20 Manu- Construction Market Public Other (A,B,D, facturing services services E,R,S,T) (G -N) (O -Q) Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 14 Employed and self-employed persons, excluding self-employed farmers. 30 10 R 0 Table 3: Employed persons by activity Number in '000 Change in umber 2010 XII 10 XI 11 XII 11 10/09 XII 11/ XI 11 XII 11/ XII 10 I-XII 11/ I-XII 10 Manufacturing 188.6 184.1 186.6 185.1 -11,253 -1,496 1,039 -3,725 Construction 78.5 72.1 65.0 62.1 -8,231 -2,936 -10,033 -10,709 Market services 345.6 340.7 341.7 340.6 -2,827 -1,112 -179 -3,400 -of which: Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 111.8 109.4 109.5 109.2 -2,842 -375 -260 -2,078 Public services 168.8 169.1 171.5 171.4 3,541 -100 2,319 1,406 Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 52.0 51.5 51.4 51.2 502 -164 -273 -661 Education 63.5 64.3 65.5 65.5 1,833 12 1,154 1,145 Human health and social work activities 53.2 53.3 54.7 54.8 1,080 52 1,438 922 Other 53.6 52.9 58.6 58.1 -4,416 -464 5,190 5,355 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. A total of 115,965 persons were registered as unemployed at the end of January. Seasonally adjusted, unemployment declined by 0.2% in January relative to the previous month, but according to original figures, it rose by 2.8%. The difference in data is due to the seasonal increase in the number of unemployed persons as a result of the expiration of fixed-term work contracts at the end of the year. January's increase in the inflows into the unemployment register (11,539 persons) is attributable to a higher number of persons who lost work. The outflows from unemployment also rose (8,328 persons), largely as a result of a higher number of those who found jobs. The increase in unemployment is also reflected in a higher number of people receiving unemployment benefits.15 Table 4: Labour market indicators in % 2010 XII 11/ XI 11 XII 11/ XII 10 I-XII 11/ I-XII 10 Labour force -1.0 -0.5 0.1 -0.1 Persons in formal employment -2.7 -0.7 -0.2 -0.7 - Employed in enterprises and organisations and by those self-employed -2.6 -0.8 -1.0 -1.2 Registered unemployed 16.4 1.5 2.5 -0.8 Average nominal gross wage 3.9 -6.4 0.8 2.0 - private sector1 5.1 -8.4 1.0 2.6 - public sector1 -0.1 -0.7 0.0 0.0 2010 XII 10 XI 11 XII 11 Rate of registered unemployment. in % 10.7 11.7 11.9 12.0 Average nominal gross wage (in EUR) 1,494.88 1,534.04 1,651.88 1,546.09 Private sector1 (in EUR) 1,414.65 1,464.95 1,615.81 1,479.51 Public sector1 (in EUR) 1,750.61 1,750.02 1,762.88 1,750.20 Sources: ESS. SORS; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1The division into the private and public sectors is (for easier and consistent comparison of wage and productivity growth) adjusted to SORS' division of activities in the quarterly release of GDP. The public sector comprises activities O-Q and the private sector all other activities (A-N. R-S). The growth rates of the average gross wage per employee for 2009 and 2010 are therefore also slightly changed. An average of 36,344 persons received unemployment benefits in 2011, 20.1% more than in 2010, and their share totalled 32.8%, up 2.7 p.p. from the previous year. Figure 20: Unemployed persons by reason for unemployment - new-job seekers -Expiry of fixed-term contracts -Written statement -----Bankruptcy ----Winding up of sole proprietorships ---------Business reasons, compulsory settlements Source: ESS; calculations by IMAD. Wage movements at the end of the year were, as usual, marked by extraordinary payments, but they were lowest in six years.16 December's extraordinary payments totalled EUR 20 m, which is roughly the same as in December 2010, but compared with November, substantially fewer employees (7.3%; in November, 17.0%) received much lower amounts. As the bulk of year-end payments are disbursed in private sector activities,17 the wage in these activities dropped notably relative to the previous month, according to original data. Seasonally adjusted, the private 15 The increase was also impacted by changes in the unemployment benefit system brought about by the Labour Market Regulation Act, which entered into force in January 2011. 16 A total of EUR 96.7 m of extraordinary payments were disbursed in the last two months of 2011; EUR 104.7 m a year earlier; and EUR 156.4 m in 2007 when these payments were highest. 17 More than 96% of all December's extraordinary payments were disbursed in activities A-N and R-S. Table 5: Wages by activity Gross wage per employee, in EUR Change, in % 2010 XII 2011 2010/ 2009 XII 11/ XI 11 XII 11/ XII 10 I-XII 11/ I-XII 10 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 1,267.00 1,304.09 5.8 -13.6 -3.5 3.1 B Mining and quarrying 1,904.97 2,354.85 4.0 -2.9 6.8 3.8 C Manufacturing 1,311.57 1,375.85 9.0 -10.9 1.8 3.9 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 2,095.67 2,527.32 3.7 -7.2 5.6 2.3 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 1,444.70 1,457.20 2.2 -13.7 -1.3 -0.1 F Constrution 1,211.63 1,247.44 4.4 -5.8 -0.5 2.0 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 1,325.08 1,398.44 3.7 -6.9 2.4 2.8 H Transportation and storage 1,421.14 1,455.26 2.0 -11.9 0.8 2.7 I Accommodation and food service activities 1,074.27 1,104.59 4.0 -1.0 -0.3 2.1 J Information and communication 2,092.15 2,167.50 2.6 -7.3 -1.3 0.9 K Financial and insurance activities 2,144.81 2,184.20 1.0 -12.2 0.5 0.6 L Real estate activities 1,477.74 1,592.10 3.0 -7.0 2.0 2.9 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 1,765.21 1,803.47 1.6 -4.2 -2.3 -0.4 N Administrative and support service activities 952.15 987.12 4.1 -6.2 2.5 3.5 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 1,778.20 1,779.09 -0.6 -0.8 -0.1 0.3 P Education 1,730.26 1,734.34 0.6 -0.8 0.5 0.2 Q Human health and social work activities 1,746.86 1,740.72 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 1,731.32 1,746.17 0.5 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 S Other service activities 1,397.40 1,436.14 4.2 -3.6 -1.8 0.9 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. sector gross wage rose slightly in December (0.3%), while the gross wage in the public sector remained at roughly the same level as in the previous month (-0.1%). Figure 21: Average gross wage per employee o 6 E ° 4 ^^ 2 Total Private sector Public sector a a a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Note: Private sector (activities A-N; R-S), public sector (activities O-Q) The growth of the total gross wage in 2011 was dictated by wage movements in the private sector, as wages in the public sector once again remained unchanged last year. In 2011 as a whole, the private sector gross wage was up 2.6% in nominal terms, but its y-o-y growth decelerated steadily. It arose from growth in the basic wage, with contributions to growth coming from a gradual increase in the minimum wage (just below one p.p., according to our estimate), adjustments to higher price levels and changes in employment structure (0.3 p.p.). The contributions from overtime and extraordinary payments were negligible (0.1 p.p. in total), which is related to low economic activity. In view of the deteriorated economic and public finance situation, public sector wages were also marked by austerity measures last year. After the modest growth in Q1, wages were down y-o-y in other quarters of the year. Last year, wages thus remained unchanged for the second year in a row. Together with slower growth in private sector wages, these movements resulted in the lowest growth in the total gross wage in twenty years (2.0% in nominal and 0.2% in real terms).18 Prices With 0.6% monthly price growth, which was, amid the expected movements of most prices, also marked by higher prices of liquid fuels (0.2 p.p.), y-o-y inflation rose from 2.3% to 2.9% mainly due to the base effect related to the reduction of the monthly radio and TV subscription fee in February 2011. According to Eurostat's flash estimate, y-o-y inflation in the euro area totalled 2.7%. 18 Since data have been available. 14 12 10 0 Figure 22: Headline and core inflation in Slovenia and in the euro area Euro area HICP Euro area HICP -core inflation Slovenia HICP Slovenia HICP -core inflation Source: Eurostat. In the short term, consumer price movements are mainly influenced by prices of liquid fuels, while in the long term, they are still affected by subdued economic activity. Prices of liquid fuels for transport and heating, which follow oil price movements on world markets, rose by around 6% in January and February and have already contributed close to 0.4 p.p. to domestic inflation. The government has changed excise duties twice this year, but the net effect of these changes on inflation was neutral, in our estimate. The continuation of sluggish demand and poor prospects for the months to come continue to show in very moderate movements of core inflation, which totals around 2% y-o-y. The movement of core inflation is otherwise also related to inflation expectations, which in the euro area remain anchored at the medium-term inflation target of just below 2%, according to ECB estimates. The greatest contributions to January's y-o-y inflation otherwise came from higher prices of energy (0.9 p.p.), food (0.6 p.p.) and services (0.5 p.p.). Figure 23: Structure of y-o-y inflation 8 ■-■ , Other Services Fuels and energy Food Table 6: Breakdown of the HICP into subgroups - January 2012 Slovenia Euro area Cum. % Weight % Contribution in p.p. Cum. % Weight % Contribution in p.p. Total HICP -0.3 100.0 -0.3 -0.8 100.0 -0.8 Goods -0.8 66.0 -0.5 -1.1 58.5 -0.6 Processed food, alcohol and tobacco -0.3 15.4 0.0 0.4 11.9 0.0 Non-processed food 3.5 7.3 0.3 0.5 7.2 0.0 Non-energy industrial goods -3.8 28.8 -1.1 -3.6 28.5 -1.0 Durables -0.3 10.6 0.0 -0.4 9.0 0.0 Non-durables 0.1 8.8 0.0 0.3 8.2 0.0 Semi-durables -11.5 9.4 -1.1 -8.9 11.2 -1.0 Energy 2.4 14.5 0.3 2.6 11.0 0.3 Electricity for households 2.3 2.7 0.1 1.5 2.6 0.0 Natural gas 0.8 1.1 0.0 2.0 1.8 0.0 Liquid fuels for heating 3.1 1.7 0.1 3.5 0.9 0.0 Solid fuels -1.2 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 District heating 4.2 0.9 0.0 1.3 0.7 0.0 Fuels and lubricants 2.7 7.2 0.2 3.4 4.9 0.2 Services 0.7 34.0 0.2 -0.4 41.5 -0.2 Services - dwellings -0.3 3.0 0.0 0.3 10.1 0.0 Services - transport 1.1 5.9 0.1 -0.4 6.5 0.0 Services - communications 2.8 3.5 0.1 -0.2 3.1 0.0 Services - recreation, repairs, personal care 0.4 13.5 0.1 -1.6 14.5 -0.2 Services - other services 0.6 8.1 0.0 0.9 7.3 0.1 HICP excluding energy and non-processed food -1.2 78.2 -0.9 -1.4 81.8 -1.1 Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Note: ECB classification 8 4 3 5 4 = 1 o 0 -1 -2 Growth in producer prices of manufactured goods on the domestic market eased. Y-o-y growth totalled 1.9% in January (2.6% in December 2011). In addition to the base effect, the moderation reflected January's monthly price reductions in some main manufacturing industries, particularly in the manufacture of metals and metal products. Similar price dynamics in manufactured goods by domestic producers are also typical for the foreign market, but y-o-y price growth on the foreign market was higher in the last few years and in February 2012. However, this can also be a result of a better economic situation on other markets than on the domestic market. Figure 24: Movement of industrial producer prices of manufactured goods on the domestic market -PPI (domestic market) ---------Mfr. of furniture, and other manufacturing -----Mfr. of basic metals, fabricated metal prod., exc. mach. and equip. ----Mfr. of food products; beverages and tobacco products - Mfr. of chemicals and chemical prod., and basic pharm. products Figure 25: Real effective exchange rate (HICP deflator) -REER defl. HICP -NEER ■Relat. HICP 20 16 12 # 8 i^w 4 O 0 -4 -8 -12 -16 Source: SORS. In January, the price competitiveness of the economy improved less than in most other euro area countries. In January, the real effective exchange rate deflated by HICP was lower than in December (-0.5%) and January 2011 (-1.0%). The monthly improvement in price competitiveness was largely due to a lower exchange rate of the euro, while the y-o-y improvement resulted from lower relative prices.19 Due to the structure of Slovenia's external trade,20 the monthly drop in the nominal effective exchange rate21 was among the lowest in the euro area. The price competitiveness in Slovenia therefore improved less than in other Member States. With a greater drop in relative prices than in most other euro area countries, Slovenia ranked roughly in the middle (11'h place) in terms of the y-o-y improvement in price competitiveness in January. 19 In Slovenia, in comparison with its trading partners. 20 As Slovenia has an above-average share of merchandise trade with the euro area, the depreciation of the euro has a smaller impact on the nominal effective exchange rate, and vice versa: when the euro gains value, the negative effects on the nominal effective exchange rate of Slovenia are relatively smaller. 21 In January, the euro lost value against most currencies that are important for Slovenian exporters (USD, GBP, PLN, RUB, CHF, JPY, SEK). 106 105 104 o o 103 ■t 102 ■Ö jZ 101 100 99 98 Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD. Balance of payments In Q4 2011, the current account of the balance of payments recorded a deficit again, which was higher than in the previous quarter and also y-o-y. The y-o-y deficit increase was due to a lower surplus in the balance of current transfers and a higher deficit in the balance of factor incomes, but deficit growth was mitigated by a y-o-y decline in the deficit in merchandise trade and a higher surplus in services trade. The current account deficit, which has already been narrowing annually for three years, totalled EUR 168.1 m or 0.5% of GDP last year (in 2010, 297.3 m or 0.8% of GDP). The deficit in merchandise trade was down y-o-y, while the y-o-y increase in the surplus in services trade was mainly attributable to a higher surplus in trade in travel services. The y-o-y decline in the merchandise trade deficit was mainly due to a greater slowdown in real import growth than export growth, and the effect of the price factor was the smallest in the entire year, as in Q4 2011, import prices were up 3.9% y-o-y and export prices 3.8%. The merchandise trade deficit in 2011 amounted to EUR 1.296.6 m, which is a 91.7 m higher figure than in the preceding year. In Q4 2011, the surplus in services trade was up again y-o-y, largely due to a higher surplus in trade in travel services. The y-o-y improvement also reflected a lower deficit in trade in the group of other services, chiefly as a result of a lower deficit in trade in miscellaneous business, professional and technical services. In 2011 as a whole, the surplus in the services balance totalled EUR 1.616.7 m and was EUR 308.5 m higher than in 2010. Figure 26: Breakdown of y-o-y changes in the nominal balance of merchandise trade ^■Terms of trade ^MVoiume effect ^■Other -Change in nom. balance 800 --:- a a a Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. The deficit in the balance of factor incomes in Q4 2011 was higher y-o-y mainly due to higher net outflows of interest on external debt, while the surplus in the balance of current transfers was lower than in the same period of 2010. Interest payments have been up y-o-y since the third quarter of 2010. Net interest payments by the government sector have increased the most, due to maturing coupon payments on bonds, as in 2009-2011 the government sector borrowed EUR 9.5 bn by issuing long-term bonds to mitigate the financial crisis. In 2011, net interest payments by the government sector totalled EUR 414.6 m, EUR 90.5 m more than in the previous year. Net interest payments by the private sector (domestic commercial banks, enterprises and households) also increased y-o-y in Q4 2011, which is attributable to tighter terms of financing on international financial markets and, in part, to higher margins. The surplus of income from labour widened y-o-y in Q4 2011, largely due to higher inflows of income earned by Slovenian residents abroad. The deficit in the balance of factor incomes amounted to EUR 642.6 m in 2011 and was EUR 135.9 m higher than in the previous year. In the last quarter of 2011, the surplus in the balance of current transfers narrowed y-o-y largely Figure 27: Net interest payments by sector ^HB^ General government Private sector 50 -Total E S -100 -150 -200 -250 a a a Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Table 7: Balance of payments I-XII 11, EUR m Inflows Outflows Balance1 Balance, I - XII 10 Current account 27,902.0 28,070.1 -168.1 -297.3 - Trade balance (FOB) 20,674.7 21,971.3 -1,296.6 -1,204.9 - Services 4,992.4 3,375.6 1,616.7 1,308.2 - Income 899.6 1,542.2 -642.6 -506.7 Current transfers 1,335.3 1,181.0 154.3 106.0 Capital and financial account 3,267.5 -3,681.5 -414.1 318.7 - Capital account 247.0 -348.7 -101.7 8.2 - Capital transfers 244.6 -342.2 -97.7 16.0 - Non-produced, non-financial assets 2.4 -6.4 -4.0 -7.8 - Financial account 3,020.5 -3,332.9 -312.4 310.5 - Direct investment 786.2 8.0 794.2 333.5 - Portfolio investment 1,955.8 -64.8 1,891.1 1,947.1 - Financial derivates 32.5 -169.1 -136.7 -116.8 - Other investment 174.0 -3,107.0 -2,933.0 -1,872.1 - Assets 0.0 -1,734.2 -1,734.2 683.0 - Liabilities 174.0 -1,372.8 -1,198.8 -2,555.1 - Reserve assets 72.0 0.0 72.0 18.8 Net errors and omissions 582.2 0.0 582.2 -21.4 Source: BS. Note: 1a minus sign (-) in the balance indicates a surplus of imports over exports in the current account and a rise in assets in the capital and financial account and the central bank's international reserves.. on account of higher payments of taxes and contributions abroad and other general government transfers. The absorption of funds from the EU budget improved again in 2011. The surplus in current transfers (EUR 154.3 m) was therefore higher than in 2010 (EUR 106.0 m). Amid modest net capital flows, external financial transactions22 recorded a net inflow in Q4 2011 (EUR 20.6 m), while in the year as a whole, they posted a net outflow of EUR 384.4 m (a net inflow of EUR 291.7 m in 2010). Uncertainty on international financial markets continued to impact particularly decisions regarding portfolio investment. Portfolio investment recorded a net inflow of EUR 33.8 m in Q4 2011, in contrast to as much as EUR 387.7 m in the same period of the preceding year. Domestic commercial banks continued to sell money market instruments, which are very liquid and depend on short-term interest rates. The second half of last year was marked by a decline in commercial banks' investment in foreign debt securities. After high inflows in Q1 2011, when the government had issued two long-term bonds in the total amount of EUR 3.0 bn, the government sector repaid its debts in the remaining three quarters of the year (EUR 815.9 m). By investing in bonds and notes, the BS increased its financial assets abroad, the volume of which also depends on the level of liabilities to the Eurosystem. In Q4 2011, inflows from direct investment otherwise increased relative to the previous quarter but were lower y-o-y. Direct investment flows in the last quarter of 2011 totalled EUR 265.0 m (EUR 335.0 m in the same period of the year previously). There was a high level of mutual crediting between domestic and foreign investors. Other investment recorded a net capital outflow of EUR 259.7 m in the fourth quarter of 2011; liabilities recorded an outflow of EUR 717.6 m, claims an inflow of EUR 457.9 m. Figure 28: Financial transactions of the balance of payments by instrument ^■Direct investment ^■Portfolio investment Financial derivatives Other investment -Net financial flow 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 E S^ 500 J^ 0 -500 -1,000 -1,500 -2,000 -2,500 -3,000 a a Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. The highest transactions were recorded in the banking sector. Domestic commercial banks were withdrawing deposits from foreign accounts and thus repaid part of their foreign loans. On the other hand, the BS borrowed short-term from the Eurosystem again to provide liquidity for domestic commercial banks.23 Financial markets In January, the lending activity of domestic banks strengthened, but the situation remains tight. Net flows of loans to domestic non-banking sectors totalled EUR 55.2 m, the highest level since September 2010. We estimate that after the extensive net deleveraging at the end of last year, enterprises substituted part of the repaid loans by borrowing in January, when liquidity conditions in the banking system improved owing to the ECB's measures. January otherwise also saw modest net borrowing by the government, while households again net repaid loans taken with domestic banks. In January, liquidity pressures on the banking system were somewhat lower than at the end of 2011. Banks net repaid matured liabilities, but the repayments were lower. Household deposits increased, while government deposits recorded net outflows again. to Total 22 Excluding international monetary reserves and statistical errors. The latter totalled EUR 582.2 m last year. Figure 29: Net flows of domestic bank loans domestic non-banking sectors Households Enterprises and NFI^ Government- 700 600 500 400 300 200 E 100 cc 0 " -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 -600 -700 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Households have been net repaying loans taken with domestic banks since November 2011. January's net repayments amounted to EUR 32.7 m. Households net repaid consumer loans and loans for other purposes. Net borrowing in the form of housing loans was positive, but modest. Households mainly made net repayments of euro loans, in the highest amounts since December 2007, over EUR 30 m. Net outflows of foreign currency loans eased somewhat in the last two months, in our estimate also as a consequence of a slight appreciation of the Swiss franc. 23 The BS recorded borrowing in all quarters, except in the first when it repaid part of the liabilities under the long-term refinancing operation. Table 8: Financial market indicators Domestic bank loans to nonbanking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR bn Nominal loan growth, % 31. XII 11 31.I 12 31.I 12/ 31. XII 11 31. I 12/ 31.I 11 31.I 11/ 31. I 10 Loans total 32.733,86 32.789,02 0,2 -2,3 3,1 Enterprises and NFI 22.065,54 22.148,72 0,4 -4,4 -0,3 Government 1.214,88 1.219,52 0,4 4,9 32,8 Households 9.453,45 9.420,77 -0,3 2,1 9,2 Consumer credits 2.723,04 2.697,08 -1,0 -4,2 -2,8 Lending for house purchase 5.163,55 5.175,66 0,2 0,2 21,0 Other lending 1.566,85 1.548,04 -1,2 -2,7 1,2 Bank deposits total 15.097,17 15.185,76 0,6 1,6 3,3 Overnight deposits 6.440,82 6.598,62 2,5 5,2 9,2 Short-term deposits 4.127,66 4.054,04 -1,8 -8,4 -11,3 Long-term deposits 4.521,12 4.525,57 0,1 6,9 39,4 Deposits redeemable at notice 7,57 7,53 -0,6 -24,5 -98,6 Mutual funds 1.810,64 1.872,70 3,4 -8,3 10,1 Government bank deposits total 2.848,94 2.803,42 -1,6 -24,0 -17,5 Overnight deposits 139,72 144,60 3,5 60,9 -88,8 Short-term deposits 694,47 642,18 -7,5 -55,7 -21,9 Long-term deposits 2.013,33 2.014,90 0,1 -6,2 20,8 Deposits redeemable at notice 1,42 1,73 22,3 -49,9 -89,9 Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BS, SMA (Securities Market Agency); calculations by IMAD. Enterprises and NFIs net borrowed EUR 83.2 m from domestic banks in January. Part of this amount was, according to our estimate, used to refinance obligations that fell due at the end of last year. However, despite relatively high net inflows, the refinancing was fairly modest, in our estimate, given that December's net outflows were much higher (around EUR 600 m). Borrowing was only recorded for enterprises, while NFIs net repaid their loans in the amount of EUR 16.6 m. December's corporate and NFI net borrowing abroad totalled EUR 11.7 m, which is lower than last year's average Figure 30: Net corporate and NFI borrowing abroad and gaps in interest rates Loans (left axis) monthly amount. The maturity structure of loans indicates a decline in the confidence of foreign lenders in Slovenian enterprises, as these once again net repaid long-term loans and borrowed in the form of short-term loans. Last year's corporate and NFI net borrowing abroad thus totalled EUR 185.1 m, in contrast to 2010, when enterprises and NFIs net repaid more than EUR 260 m in foreign loans. Despite increased borrowing abroad, the sources of debt financing for enterprises and NFIs shrank substantially last year amid a severe tightening of the credit crunch in Slovenia. The total corporate and NFI net repayments thus doubled last year, reaching close to EUR 800 m. Figure 31: Net flows of loans to non-banking sectors in the euro area - Diff. between domestic and foreign interest rates (right axis) 350 300 I Households ^^ Enterprises and NFI^ Government-Total f- 250 100 180 150 120 90 c 60 30 cc U J^ 0 -30 -60 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD. 200 150 - 50 0 -120 In January, the lending activity also strengthened in the euro area. Net flows totalled almost EUR 30 bn and the increase was a sole consequence of higher net borrowing by enterprises and NFIs. The greatest contribution to growth came from NFIs, while corporate net borrowing was fairly modest. Households and the governments net repaid their loans in January. Last year, liquidity pressures on banks strengthened significantly in Slovenia. In December, banks intensified net repayments of foreign deposits and loans, to around EUR 550 m in total. More than three quarters of net repayments came from deposits. Last year, banks thus net repaid EUR 2.3 bn in deposits and loans, which is over 60% more than in 2010. Net repayments were only higher in 2009 (EUR 3.0 bn), but in 2009, banks partly offset net repayments by issuing government-guaranteed bonds. In 2009, net inflows of the latter totalled EUR 1.6 bn, in contrast to the net outflow of EUR 162.4 m last year. Figure 32: Net bank borrowing abroad 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 m -200 -400 -600 -800 -1,000 -1,200 -1,400 1 Deposits Short-term ^^m Long-term -Total i ..i.......I.. ..i.. ..i... .....4- . . -i........i.......J ..b........i..................i........d... Ji| jwi........ ....... ...... Source: BS. The rapid deterioration of the quality of banks' assets continues, and at the beginning of this year banks continued to intensively create provisions. Totalling EUR 30.8 m, the provisions were otherwise 15% lower than last January but still much higher than what is typical for January. The volume of bad claims is still growing at a rapid pace, almost by EUR 230 m in December alone, which was the second highest monthly amount thus far. Looking at activities, it was otherwise only the construction sector that stood out. The volume of bad claims against foreigners increased the most. A larger transfer between bad claims (from C-rated claims to non-performing claims) was recorded only for claims on financial and insurance activities, which include holdings involved in takeover activities. Figure 33: Creation of additional provisions and impairments and the share of non-performing claims in Slovenia's banking system Provisions and impairments (left axis) -Share of non-performing claims (right axis) -Share of C-rated claims (right axis) ^ ^ 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5^ 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Source: BS; calculatic^ns by IMAD. Net inflows of household deposits in banks strengthened somewhat in January, while government deposits declined. Household net inflows to banks were the highest in eight months (EUR 88.6 m), but nevertheless more than a tenth lower than in January 2010. This January, their maturity structure was fairly unfavourable, as it was mainly overnight deposits that recorded growth. Long-term deposits increased to a lesser extent (EUR 4.5 m). In recent months, their inflows have decreased substantially. The government continued to withdraw short-term deposits from banks in January. Figure 34: Net inflows of household and government deposits in banks ■ Households ■ Government -Total 1,500 1,250 1.000 750 500 E 250 j= 0 -250 -500 -750 -1,000 Source: BS; cala^lations by IMAD. Box 3: The quality of banks' assets in 2011 The quality of banks' assets continued to deteriorate last year. The volume of bad claims increased by almost two fifths. This is otherwise nearly half less than in 2010, but the lower growth is largely a consequence of the high base, as the net inflows of bad claims (over EUR 1.5 bn) were only slightly lower than in 2010. At the end of December, bad claims totalled EUR 5.5 bn, and their share climbed to 11.2% of all banking sector claims. Within that, more than half are non-performing claims. The inflows into C-rated claims were decreasing last year, but they strengthened somewhat again at the end of the year. The increase in the share of all bad claims is mainly due to the deterioration in the quality of banks' claims. To a lesser degree it is also attributable to deleveraging of creditworthy borrowers, in our estimate, while new crediting was fairly modest. The volume of A-rated claims declined by as much as EUR 2.5 bn last year and the total exposure by 300 EUR m.1 The total exposure of banks thus declined in most activities, despite the increase in bad claims. The volume of bad claims was highest in manufacturing, transportation and storage, information and communication activities, real estate and professional, scientific and technical activities.2 Distributive trade is the only activity to have reduced the volume of bad liabilities to banks last year, which means that there was no significant cleaning up of bank balance sheets yet. The construction sector stands out significantly, as the banking sector's exposure to this sector increased further in 2011, despite highly negative movements in this activity. Amid a fast deterioration of the quality of banks' assets, banks intensified the creation of additional provisions and impairments last year, which totalled EUR 1.1 bn, over two fifths more than in the preceding year. The coverage of bad claims with provisions rose to almost 65%, which is somewhat more than in 2010, but still much below the pre-crisis levels, when the coverage ratio exceeded 100%. Banks would thus need another EUR 2 bn in provisions and impairments to reach this level. Having dropped by more than a third from the highest levels in 2007, the coverage for non-performing claims continued to deteriorate. Figure 35: Net inflows of bad claims by activity 300 5 200 100 C 2007 «2008 ■ 2010 «2011 Source: BS. Figure 36: Coverage of bad and non-performing claims with provisions and impairments -Coverage of bad claims -Coverage of non-performing claims 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 ! ................ ................X-....... \ 2007 2008 2009 Source: BS. 2010 2011 1 Excluding the purchase of treasury bonds in December 2011, the decline in the total exposure would be much higher. 2 The quality of external claims also deteriorated significantly last year, but the exposure decreased notably due to a higher quality of claims. 0 -100 Public finance In 2011, revenue from taxes and social security contributions24 totalled EUR 13.4 bn, 2.6% more than in 2010. General government revenue was generated in an almost unchanged tax system, with somewhat modified tax instruments and in a worse macroeconomic environment than a year earlier. Only the inflows from corporate income tax increased notably in 2011, which is related to the way how this tax is calculated and paid.25 The inflows of all other taxes and contributions combined increased by a mere percent. With tax and contribution rates remaining the same due to low wage-bill growth as a consequence of a lower number of employees, wage-related taxes and contributions increased only by 0.4%. Amid modest domestic consumption, consumption-related taxes rose by 1.7%. Excise duties on energy products were cut in 2011, but the quantities of all products subject to excise duties were higher.26 Figure 37: Structure of growth of revenue from taxes and social security contributions Taxes on income ^^m Payroll tax Domestic taxes on goods and services (XXX Social security contributions Other taxes - Total 10 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. According to the consolidated balance27 of the MF, general government revenue totalled EUR 13.6 bn and general government expenditure EUR 15.0 bn in the first eleven months of 2011. In that period, revenue was up 4.1% 24 Based on the Report on Payments of All Public Revenues, January-December 2011, Public Payments Administration. 2 The low inflow of corporate income tax in 2010 was a result of bad business performance in 2009 and tax assessments, and in part also of legislative changes aimed at making doing business easier and stimulating development and hiring (by lowering the income tax rate, increasing tax relief). 26 In 2011, the quantity of sold alcohol and alcohol products increased by 1.6% y-o-y, the quantity of sold tobacco and tobacco products by 1.8% and the quantity of main mineral oils by 3.9%. 27 The consolidated balance (according to the cash flow methodology) includes revenues and expenditures of the state and local government budgets, as well as revenues and expenditures of the pension and health funds (the Institute for Pension and Disability Insurance, and the Health Insurance Institute of Slovenia). y-o-y and expenditure 0.7%. Y-o-y growth rates in general government expenditure have been slowing since the adoption of measures to contain budgetary expenditure in mid-2011 and the revision of the state budget in September. In the first eleven months, particularly expenditures on capital and capital transfers and subsidies were lower y-o-y. Expenditure on wages and other personnel expenditures were also down somewhat. Y-o-y increases were recorded particularly for expenditures on interest (8.0%) and transfers to individuals and households (4.3%; 6.0% excluding pensions). Given the labour market situation, the highest y-o-y growth was still recorded for expenditure on transfers to the unemployed (33.8%), but it slowed slightly. The conditions for the valorisation of pensions were not fulfilled28 in November. In the first eleven years, expenditure on pensions was up 3.4% y-o-y. The y-o-y growth in expenditure on goods and services also slowed, totalling 0.8% in eleven months. Figure 38: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 1,500 1,450 1,400 .Ü 1,350 o E 1,300 o !E ^^ 1,250 != cc 1,200 JI 1,150 1,100 —;-;-;-;-;-;-;-;-;-;-;-;-r-General government revenue -General government expenditure I I 1 1 1 1 I Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. The deficit of the consolidated balance amounted to EUR 1,386 m in the first eleven months of the year. The deficit of the state budget totalled EUR 1,341 m in eleven months of last year and the deficit of the health fund EUR 57 m. On the other hand, the total balance of local government budgets recorded a surplus of 11.5 bn. In the first eleven months, the transfer from the state budget into the pension fund amounted to EUR 1,355 m (9.4% more than a year earlier). In January 2012, Slovenia received EUR 26.9 m from the EU budget, which is half less than in the previous January. Slovenia paid EUR 35 m into the budget, and its state budget thus recorded a deficit of EUR 8.1 m against the EU budget. The bulk of receipts came from structural 28 The conditions were not fulfilled, as the average monthly growth of the minimum pension base effective this year had already exceeded a quarter of the estimated growth of this year's average wage with the adjustment in February. 8 6 4 2 0 2005 Table 9: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 2010 2011 EUR m % of GDP Growth, % I-XI EUR m I-XI 11/ I-XI 10 Revenue - total 14,789.5 41.8 2.7 13,617.4 4.1 - Tax revenues 12,848.3 36.3 -0.8 12,092.4 4.1 - Taxes on income and profit 2,490.7 7.0 -11.2 2,477.3 11.5 - Social security contributions 5,234.5 14.8 1.4 4,781.8 0.8 - Domestic taxes on goods and servises 4,780.6 13.5 2.6 4,483.4 3.3 - Receipts from the EU budget 724.6 2.0 21.5 678.3 37.6 Expenditure - total 16,675.9 47.1 1.9 15,003.4 0.7 - Wages and other personnel expenditure 3,914.9 11.1 0.1 3,572.8 -0.3 - Purchases of goods and services 2,510.5 7.1 0.1 2,207.0 0.8 -Domestic and foreign interest payments 488.1 1.4 45.3 521.1 8.0 - Transfers to individuals and households 6,274.5 17.7 4.2 6,001.6 4.4 - Capital expenditure 1,305.1 3.7 0.9 837.9 -16.5 - Capital transfers 388.4 1.1 -21.6 310.2 -5.3 - Payment to the EU budget 396.8 1.1 -9.7 368.9 1.4 Source: MF, Public Finance Bulletin. funds (close to EUR 20 m), but Slovenia also received EUR 2.3 m from the Cohesion Fund and EUR 1.3 m under the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies. The year 2012 is marked by fairly ambitious plans for cohesion policy realisation, anticipating EUR 939 m from structural funds and the Cohesion Fund, which is 27% more than planned last year. Figure 39: Planned and absorbed EU funds ■ Funds planned in the revised state budget for 2012 ■ Funds planned in the state budget for 2011 ■ Total receipts in 2012 (January) ■ Total receipts in 2011 (January-December) Other Common Agricultural Policy 400 200 300 EUR m Source: MF, calculations by IMAD. X "O C o a a (U "5 u (U MAIN INDICATORS 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Winter forecast 2011-2012 GDP (real growth rates, in %) 5.8 6.9 3.6 -8.0 1.4 0.5 0.2 2.0 GDP in EUR million (current prices and current exchange rate) 31,050 34,562 37,280 35,311 35,416 35,789 36,356 37,590 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices and current exchange rate) 15,464 17,120 18,437 17,295 17,286 17,437 17,778 18,349 GDP per capita (PPS)1 20,700 22,100 22,700 20,500 20,700 - - - GDP per capita (PPS EU27=100)' 88 88 91 87 85 - - - Gross national income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate) 30,677 33,828 36,232 34,593 34,894 35,297 35,462 36,711 Gross national disposable income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate) 30,462 33,601 35,871 34,344 34,940 35,387 35,441 36,764 Rate of registered unemployment 9.4 7.7 6.7 9.1 10.7 11.8 12.5 12.8 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 6.0 4.9 4.4 5.9 7.3 8.1 8.6 8.8 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 4.2 3.4 1.0 -6.3 4.0 2.2 1.6 2.7 Inflation,2 year average 2.5 3.6 5.7 0.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 Inflation,2 end of the year 2.8 5.6 2.1 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.8 INTERNATIONAL TRADE - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS Exports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 12.5 13.7 2.9 -17.2 9.5 7.3 2.9 6.0 Exports of goods 13.4 13.9 0.5 -18.1 11.0 8.3 3.0 6.4 Exports of services 8.6 13.2 14.3 -13.7 4.1 3.5 2.5 4.5 Imports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 12.2 16.7 3.7 -19.6 7.2 5.5 1.0 4.6 Imports of goods 12.7 16.2 3.0 -20.8 8.0 6.3 0.9 4.6 Imports of services 8.8 19.7 8.2 -12.0 2.6 1.2 1.7 4.3 Current account balance, in EUR million -771 -1646 -2574 -456 -297 -192 -176 321 As a per cent share relative to GDP -2.5 -4.8 -6.9 -1.3 -0.8 -0.5 -0.5 0.9 Gross external debt, in EUR million 24,067 34,783 39,234 40,294 40,699 41,4445 As a per cent share relative to GDP 77.5 100.6 105.2 114.1 114.9 Ratio of USD to EUR 1.254 1.371 1.471 1.393 1.327 1.392 1.318 1.318 DOMESTIC DEMAND - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) 2.8 6.1 3.7 -0.1 -0.7 0.0 -0.5 0.3 As a % of GDP4 52.8 52.4 53.2 55.8 56.0 56.5 56.4 55.6 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) 4.0 0.6 6.1 2.9 1.5 0.3 -0.7 0.3 As a % of GDP4 18.8 17.3 18.1 20.3 20.8 20.8 20.4 20.0 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) 10.4 13.3 7.8 -23.3 -8.3 -10.5 0.0 4.0 As a % of GDP4 26.5 27.8 28.8 23.4 21.6 19.4 19.3 19.8 Sources of data: SORS, BS, Eurostat, calculations and forecasts by IMAD (Winter Forecast, January 2012). Notes: 1Measured in purchasing power standard. ^Consumer price index. ^Balance of payments statistics (exports F.O.B., imports F.O.B.); real growth rates are adjusted for inter currency changes and changes in prices on foreign markets. 4Shares GDP are calculated for GDP in current prices at fixed exchange rate (EUR=239.64). 5End December 2011. PRODUCTION 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 12 1 2 3 4 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D -17.4 6.2 2.5 -7.1 -0.4 10.7 7.2 7.4 9.0 4.0 0.3 -2.6 4.7 -8.4 -1.6 8.1 8.5 B Mining and quarrying -2.9 11.0 -8.0 4.8 -7.2 11.9 23.7 15.7 -5.2 -9.2 -9.6 -7.5 -14.8 -5.5 -16.5 0.2 9.4 C Manufacturing -18.7 6.6 2.6 -7.9 -0.1 12.0 7.3 7.1 9.5 4.4 0.1 -3.0 5.2 -8.8 -1.3 9.0 9.7 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 -6.6 1.8 4.3 -5.5 -2.8 -0.5 3.6 7.0 6.9 3.8 5.1 1.5 -6.3 -7.7 -2.0 1.9 -2.1 CONSTRUCTION,2 real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total -21.0 -17.0 -25.4 -20.5 -18.9 -16.8 -16.4 -16.2 -25.3 -31.1 -25.4 -19.3 -9.5 -11.3 -24.2 -19.8 -17.9 Buildings -22.5 -14.0 -39.6 -19.6 -7.4 -12.4 -16.5 -19.2 -41.5 -46.5 -34.3 -35.5 -7.4 -6.6 -10.2 -5.5 -13.7 Civil engineering -19.9 -19.0 -15.0 -21.1 -29.3 -19.6 -16.2 -14.1 -6.3 -20.7 -20.0 -9.0 -11.3 -15.9 -38.5 -30.8 -20.6 TRANSPORT, tonne-km in m, y-o-y growth rates, % Tonne-km in road transport -9.2 7.9 -4.7 19.8 10.7 9.5 -6.3 -3.2 1.5 3.6 - - - Tonne-km in rail transport -24.2 28.2 -15.9 18.8 33.9 32.2 28.2 23.3 10.8 34.7 - - - Distributive trades, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* -13.0 3.6 2.7 -10.0 -1.4 4.9 4.7 5.3 6.7 5.8 7.3 7.5 -5.9 -4.8 -3.6 4.2 3.1 Real turnover in retail trade -10.6 -0.1 1.2 -11.1 -4.7 0.3 2.0 1.8 2.7 1.8 2.7 3.3 -7.0 -8.5 -5.2 -0.5 -1.7 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles -21.7 12.1 7.0 -8.1 6.3 15.4 11.8 14.1 15.4 15.0 17.8 17.2 -1.2 5.2 -0.4 14.1 14.5 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade -21.4 1.4 5.8 -18.1 -7.9 4.0 5.5 3.7 12.2 3.6 4.6 3.6 -11.1 -10.8 -13.1 -0.9 -3.4 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, %, new methodology from 2009 onwards Total, overnight stays -3.4 -1.5 5.3 -5.3 -0.4 -2.4 -2.2 0.4 3.1 6.6 6.6 3.1 -6.5 1.0 -2.1 0.1 -1.7 Domestic tourists, overnight stays 2.8 -4.2 0.5 -4.0 1.3 -3.0 -9.6 -0.3 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.4 -92 3.5 -0.1 1.1 2.1 Foreign tourists, overnight stays -8.0 0.7 9.1 -6.4 -2.1 -2.0 3.2 1.0 6.5 11.3 10.2 5.5 -3.7 -0.9 -5.2 -1.0 -4.6 Nominal turnover market services (without distributive trades) -7.8 2.8 3.6 -11.0 0.0 1.5 4.2 5.4 5.7 4.7 4.8 -0.7 -103 0.5 -1.5 1.1 -1.4 AGRICULTURE, y-o-y growth rates, % Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EUR m 449.3 454.5 479.8 129.0 94.6 106.7 115.6 137.5 100.4 113.3 125.7 139.5 47.2 29.7 28.6 36.4 35.5 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**) Sentiment indicator -22 -9 -7 -13 -12 -9 -6 -8 -7 -4 -6 -10 -13 -10 -11 -15 -12 Confidence indicator - in manufacturing -23 -1 0 -12 -7 -1 2 0 3 3 -1 -7 -11 -6 -8 -6 -3 - in construction -50 -57 -46 -51 -57 -60 -56 -53 -52 -46 -44 -43 -49 -55 -56 -61 -62 - in services -14 -3 1 -1 -2 -5 -2 -3 1 4 3 -4 -2 5 2 -12 -9 - in retail trade -13 7 8 -7 -6 10 12 12 2 14 2 15 -6 -8 -6 -5 9 Consumer confidence indicator -30 -25 -25 -25 -25 -23 -27 -26 -27 -25 -25 -24 -26 -25 -23 -26 -24 Source of data: SORS. Notes: 'Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. "Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels. »»Seasonally adjusted data. 2010 2011 2012 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 14.1 9.6 6.3 12.4 4.0 4.8 4.3 13.8 14.0 6.9 6.7 3.7 4.6 3.7 -0.9 -1.4 2.8 -1.6 1.0 -7.5 19.0 7.4 15.9 37.4 19.2 20.7 -2.5 39.7 -5.6 -0.7 -8.4 -4.3 -22.4 0.6 -8.3 -17.7 -2.3 -6.3 -2.1 -15.0 15.2 11.0 7.4 13.1 3.0 4.8 5.0 12.4 14.9 7.1 7.5 3.6 5.5 4.0 -1.3 -2.4 3.3 -2.2 -0.3 -6.9 - - 3.1 -2.3 -3.6 1.2 13.6 2.2 0.6 17.4 11.0 6.3 3.6 5.7 3.2 2.4 4.4 11.8 -0.4 4.7 13.2 -10.7 - - -15.5 -17.2 -17.4 -13.0 -18.7 -18.0 -17.5 -12.2 -20.9 -23.6 -29.7 -27.0 -29.3 -36.2 -27.0 -31.2 -17.5 -25.4 -9.6 -21.9 -7.5 -15.8 -11.2 -17.8 -20.3 -17.4 -28.1 -12.4 -25.9 -41.2 -53.1 -37.9 -48.0 -52.8 -36.0 -36.7 -30.0 -33.3 -28.6 -43.2 -20.3 -18.0 -21.0 -10.0 -17.6 -18.3 -10.3 -12.1 -15.4 2.7 -5.2 -19.0 -16.6 -25.9 -21.2 -28.0 -9.7 -21.0 0.7 -3.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 4.2 7.3 2.4 5.0 6.8 4.2 9.0 4.1 8.7 9.8 3.9 3.4 6.0 1.3 -0.1 6.3 2.4 0.8 -0.4 -2.1 - -1.0 3.6 1.8 1.0 3.1 1.3 3.6 0.4 4.0 5.5 0.6 0.3 1.8 -1.1 -1.2 5.6 2.1 0.5 1.4 -1.4 16.0 15.6 3.8 16.2 15.3 10.7 20.2 14.1 19.2 18.3 9.8 9.8 14.0 5.9 2.2 8.0 3.0 1.3 -3.6 -3.6 5.0 10.8 3.1 7.9 5.6 1.1 4.8 5.3 11.2 15.4 10.4 4.2 5.9 0.8 -0.6 8.5 6.1 6.2 6.0 -1.2 - - -3.0 -2.5 -1.7 -3.6 -0.3 2.5 -0.8 -1.2 4.9 -1.9 6.7 13.6 -4.2 10.6 4.1 7.0 9.8 1.9 7.0 1.2 2.3 -7.2 -3.3 -9.0 -11.1 -7.9 -3.0 -0.5 3.2 0.1 -2.0 2.7 9.3 -3.0 -3.4 -3.7 2.1 7.3 -2.9 8.6 -3.3 3.0 - -0.1 -1.8 4.3 1.6 4.4 7.0 -1.1 -5.4 8.6 -1.7 11.0 17.2 -5.0 21.6 9.7 10.0 11.2 5.5 5.2 5.8 1.7 - 2.3 3.6 5.6 4.8 2.2 6.8 4.5 4.9 7.2 4.9 5.2 7.0 0.5 6.8 2.1 4.7 7.5 -1.5 0.4 -0.9 - - 36.0 35.1 37.4 36.2 42.1 45.7 44.1 47.7 32.9 30.5 36.9 36.9 39.6 36.8 42.2 39.8 43.7 48.9 44.0 46.7 -9 -6 -5 -7 -7 -7 -8 -8 -7 -7 -6 -4 -3 -5 -5 -7 -6 -10 -10 -10 -12 -12 -1 1 5 1 1 3 -1 -1 3 4 3 5 3 1 0 -2 -2 -8 -7 -5 -3 -5 -58 -59 -60 -56 -51 -50 -54 -56 -55 -50 -50 -49 -44 -45 -46 -42 -43 -43 -46 -41 -42 -39 -4 -3 -1 -2 -2 -5 -2 -1 0 -2 4 5 3 3 3 5 2 -1 -3 -9 -11 -9 9 13 10 14 12 13 10 12 -3 12 -4 13 16 13 -2 -8 16 15 16 14 -2 5 -23 -22 -27 -27 -27 -26 -24 -27 -26 -28 -26 -27 -24 -23 -24 -27 -23 -26 -26 -20 -26 -26 LABOUR MARKET 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 2010 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1 2 3 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 944.5 935.5 934.7 943.9 935.8 937.8 933.8 934.8 936.8 937.5 931.1 933.3 935.7 935.8 935.8 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)' 858.2 835.0 824.0 848.4 836.3 839.2 835.4 829.3 821.9 828.4 823.9 821.7 836.1 836.0 836.9 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 37.9 33.4 38.8 37.8 31.9 34.6 34.0 33.3 38.0 40.1 38.8 38.0 31.9 31.9 31.9 In industry, construction 306.9 287.3 272.9 296.8 290.9 289.2 287.0 281.9 273.7 274.2 272.7 271.0 291.5 290.6 290.7 Of which: in manufacturing 199.8 188.6 184.8 191.7 190.0 189.4 188.1 186.8 184.1 184.7 184.4 186.2 190.0 189.9 190.0 in construction 86.8 78.5 67.8 84.8 80.9 79.6 78.6 75.0 69.7 69.3 67.9 64.4 81.5 80.7 80.5 In services 513.4 514.3 512.3 513.7 513.5 515.3 514.3 514.1 510.2 514.1 512.4 512.7 512.6 513.5 514.4 Of which: in public administration 51.5 52.0 51.4 51.6 51.8 52.3 52.1 51.8 51.2 51.5 51.4 51.3 51.6 51.8 52.0 in education, health-services, social work 113.8 116.7 118.8 114.7 115.9 116.8 116.3 118.0 117.8 118.8 118.5 120.1 115.4 115.9 116.4 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 767.4 747.2 729.1 756.1 750.1 751.0 747.0 740.6 728.1 731.9 728.9 727.4 749.7 749.8 750.9 In enterprises and organisations 699.4 685.7 671.8 690.5 687.2 688.7 685.7 681.3 671.4 673.9 671.3 670.7 686.4 686.9 688.3 By those self-employed 67.9 61.5 57.2 65.7 62.9 62.3 61.4 59.3 56.7 58.0 57.6 56.6 63.3 62.8 62.7 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 90.8 87.8 94.9 92.2 86.2 88.1 88.3 88.7 93.8 96.5 95.0 94.4 86.4 86.3 86.0 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 86.4 100.5 110.7 95.6 99.4 98.6 98.4 105.5 114.9 109.1 107.2 111.6 99.6 99.8 98.9 Female 42.4 47.9 52.1 46.4 47.0 46.8 47.8 50.2 52.9 50.9 51.1 53.3 47.2 47.0 46.6 By age: under 26 13.3 13.9 12.9 15.2 14.7 13.5 12.4 15.1 14.5 12.6 11.3 13.4 15.0 14.7 14.3 aged over 50 26.2 31.4 39.0 28.3 29.6 30.3 31.1 34.5 40.1 39.1 38.7 38.2 29.5 29.7 29.7 Unskilled 34.1 37.5 39.5 36.6 38.2 37.1 36.6 38.2 41.6 39.2 38.1 39.3 38.3 38.4 37.9 For more than 1 year 31.5 42.8 50.2 33.4 38.1 41.8 44.0 47.2 48.7 48.6 49.6 53.8 36.9 37.9 39.4 Those receiving benefits 27.4 30.0 36.3 30.8 31.6 29.3 29.3 29.7 39.7 36.4 34.9 34.4 32.2 31.7 30.9 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 9.1 10.7 11.8 10.1 10.6 10.5 10.5 11.3 12.3 12.2 11.5 12.0 10.6 10.7 10.6 Male 8.3 10.1 11.4 9.3 10.1 9.9 9.7 10.7 12.0 11.9 10.9 11.3 10.0 10.1 10.0 Female 10.2 11.6 12.4 11.1 11.3 11.3 11.5 12.1 12.6 12.5 12.3 12.7 11.4 11.3 11.2 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE 30.4 13.3 2.7 8.3 2.2 -0.7 -0.3 12.1 3.9 -6.9 0.0 5.7 2.9 0.2 -0.9 New unemployed first-job seekers 17.0 16.8 14.4 8.1 2.9 2.4 2.8 8.7 3.2 2.0 2.7 6.5 1.0 0.8 1.0 Redundancies 90.5 83.5 82.2 23.2 19.9 16.6 18.5 28.6 24.4 16.8 18.7 22.3 8.6 5.4 5.8 Registered unemployed who found employment 48.6 57.0 61.0 13.1 14.2 12.8 15.5 14.5 17.5 17.2 13.4 12.9 5.0 4.0 5.1 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 28.5 29.9 32.8 9.9 6.3 6.9 6.0 10.7 6.2 8.5 8.0 10.2 1.7 2.0 2.6 REGISTERED VACANCIES3 161.3 174.6 194.5 39.0 37.9 44.3 45.9 46.5 45.5 52.9 52.3 43.8 12.7 11.7 13.5 For a fixed term, in % 78.1 80.7 81.7 78.6 78.9 81.2 82.2 80.0 81.5 81.0 82.8 81.4 77.2 79.9 79.7 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 54.9 41.6 35.6 47.3 44.1 42.1 40.7 39.4 38.0 35.5 34.7 34.3 44.8 44.2 43.3 As % of labour force 5.8 4.4 3.8 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.1 3.8 3.7 3.7 4.8 4.7 4.6 NEW JOBS 111.4 104.1 118.3 28.3 23.6 25.1 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.3 26.3 37.4 8.9 7.0 7.7 Sources of data: SORS, PDII, ESS. Notes: 'In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. Data for previous years dating back to January 2000 have also been calculated according to the new methodology. ^Estimated by IMAD, based on data by PDII and ESS; ^According to ESS. 2010 2011 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 938.6 937.3 937.5 934.3 933.0 934.1 938.2 937.2 929.0 936.0 937.3 937.1 938.4 937.7 936.3 931.7 930.0 931.5 935.3 934.5 930.1 839.3 838.9 839.3 835.9 834.0 836.2 835.5 833.4 819.0 820.9 821.7 823.1 826.9 829.0 829.2 824.2 823.0 824.5 824.4 823.4 817.3 34.6 34.6 34.7 34.1 34.0 34.0 33.3 33.3 33.1 38.0 38.0 38.1 40.1 40.1 40.1 38.9 38.8 38.8 38.1 38.1 37.9 289.9 289.2 288.6 287.9 286.5 286.6 285.8 283.9 276.0 274.4 273.6 273.1 273.5 274.7 274.4 272.6 272.8 272.7 273.5 272.1 267.4 189.7 189.4 189.0 188.5 187.7 188.1 188.4 187.9 184.1 183.9 184.3 184.3 184.3 185.1 184.6 183.8 184.0 185.2 186.8 186.6 185.1 80.1 79.5 79.3 79.1 78.6 78.2 77.1 75.8 72.1 70.7 69.5 68.9 69.1 69.4 69.4 68.4 68.4 67.0 66.2 65.0 62.1 514.7 515.1 516.1 514.0 513.4 515.7 516.4 516.1 509.9 508.5 510.1 511.9 513.3 514.3 514.7 512.7 511.4 513.1 512.8 513.2 512.0 52.3 52.3 52.4 52.2 52.1 52.1 52.0 52.0 51.5 51.2 51.2 51.2 51.5 51.6 51.6 51.4 51.5 51.2 51.3 51.4 51.2 116.7 116.8 116.9 115.8 115.6 117.5 117.9 118.5 117.7 117.3 117.8 118.3 118.6 118.9 119.0 118.2 118.1 119.3 119.8 120.2 120.3 750.9 750.8 751.3 748.1 745.7 747.3 746.8 744.6 730.5 727.3 727.8 729.0 730.5 732.5 732.6 729.0 728.1 729.7 730.1 729.0 723.0 688.5 688.6 689.1 686.3 684.4 686.4 686.2 684.8 673.0 670.7 671.3 672.1 672.9 674.3 674.4 671.1 670.5 672.2 672.7 671.9 667.6 62.4 62.2 62.1 61.8 61.3 61.0 60.5 59.8 57.6 56.6 56.6 56.9 57.6 58.2 58.2 57.9 57.5 57.4 57.4 57.0 55.5 88.4 88.0 88.1 87.8 88.3 88.9 88.8 88.8 88.5 93.5 93.8 94.1 96.4 96.5 96.6 95.1 95.0 94.8 94.3 94.5 94.3 99.3 98.4 98.2 98.4 99.0 97.9 102.7 103.8 110.0 115.1 115.6 113.9 111.6 108.6 107.1 107.6 107.0 107.0 110.9 111.1 112.8 47.0 46.7 46.8 47.5 48.1 47.7 49.8 49.5 51.2 53.2 53.2 52.4 51.8 50.7 50.2 50.9 51.0 51.3 53.5 53.4 53.2 14.1 13.4 13.0 12.6 12.5 12.2 15.7 15.1 14.4 14.7 14.7 14.1 13.4 12.5 11.9 11.5 11.1 11.2 13.6 13.5 13.2 30.1 30.3 30.5 30.9 31.1 31.3 31.7 33.0 38.9 40.2 40.2 39.9 39.4 39.1 38.8 38.9 38.8 38.4 38.2 37.9 38.4 37.6 37.1 36.7 36.4 36.6 36.7 37.2 37.5 39.9 41.6 41.9 41.2 40.1 39.1 38.4 38.1 37.9 38.3 38.7 39.0 40.1 40.6 41.8 42.9 43.2 44.1 44.6 46.7 47.5 47.4 48.6 49.0 48.7 48.8 48.6 48.5 48.8 49.6 50.4 51.8 52.9 56.7 29.9 29.2 28.9 29.0 29.4 29.4 28.2 29.7 31.2 39.2 40.2 39.8 37.5 36.4 35.3 35.2 35.1 34.4 33.9 33.7 35.5 10.6 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 10.9 11.1 11.8 12.3 12.3 12.2 11.9 11.6 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.9 11.9 12.1 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.7 10.1 10.4 11.4 12.0 12.0 11.9 11.5 11.2 11.0 11.0 10.9 10.8 11.1 11.2 11.6 11.3 11.2 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.5 12.0 11.9 12.4 12.7 12.7 12.5 12.3 12.1 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.7 12.7 12.7 0.4 -0.9 -0.2 0.2 0.6 -1.1 4.8 1.1 6.2 5.1 0.5 -1.7 -2.4 -2.9 -1.6 0.5 -0.6 0.1 3.9 0.2 1.7 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.4 6.3 1.4 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.4 4.4 1.3 0.8 5.7 5.5 5.4 6.1 5.7 6.7 7.1 8.2 13.2 11.8 6.0 6.6 5.4 5.6 5.7 6.4 5.7 6.6 6.9 7.1 8.2 3.9 4.7 4.2 4.8 4.0 6.8 4.8 4.9 4.7 5.8 4.9 6.8 6.0 6.3 4.9 4.0 4.1 5.4 4.4 4.5 4.0 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.8 2.4 3.8 3.6 3.3 2.2 1.6 2.4 2.5 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.9 2.5 3.1 3.8 3.3 14.5 13.7 16.1 15.2 14.9 15.8 17.4 14.7 14.3 15.2 14.3 16.0 15.7 17.8 19.3 15.5 17.2 19.5 15.8 14.3 13.6 82.2 81.8 79.8 81.1 83.0 82.6 81.4 80.4 78.1 80.9 81.7 81.8 81.5 82.1 79.3 80.9 83.5 83.9 84.0 81.6 78.5 42.9 42.1 41.4 40.7 40.8 40.7 40.2 39.4 38.5 38.3 38.1 37.7 37.4 34.6 34.5 34.5 34.7 34.9 34.5 34.3 34.2 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 8.9 7.8 8.4 8.2 6.6 13.0 10.9 8.8 7.8 10.0 7.6 9.6 9.4 9.2 8.7 7.6 6.5 12.3 11.9 12.6 12.8 WAGES AND INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 9 10 11 12 1 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, y-o-y growth rates, % Activity - Total 3.4 3.9 2.0 1.7 3.7 4.3 4.2 3.3 3.1 2.0 1.7 1.1 2.4 1.7 1.3 2.1 2.2 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing -0.2 5.8 3.1 -2.9 3.3 5.2 7.4 6.9 7.1 4.2 1.1 0.4 -0.7 -5.5 -0.9 -2.5 1.1 B Mining and quarrying 0.9 4.0 3.8 -4.9 3.4 4.7 1.9 6.0 3.6 0.3 5.8 5.9 -3.5 -20.3 16.1 -8.7 2.0 C Manufacturing 0.8 9.0 3.9 3.7 10.1 10.0 8.7 6.8 5.4 3.6 3.5 3.1 1.6 1.9 4.6 4.3 6.7 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 3.8 3.7 2.3 -3.2 4.7 2.4 3.6 4.4 1.6 5.2 3.5 -0.5 6.7 -10.4 -8.6 12.1 3.5 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 2.0 2.2 -0.1 0.1 2.7 3.0 2.0 1.3 -0.1 1.5 1.1 -2.7 0.9 -3.3 2.1 1.1 0.0 F Constrution 1.0 4.4 2.0 0.9 2.9 5.8 4.1 5.2 5.5 1.5 0.3 0.5 1.4 -1.4 1.1 2.9 1.0 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 1.9 3.7 2.8 0.1 2.6 4.1 4.3 3.9 3.2 2.6 2.3 3.0 0.6 0.4 -0.8 0.6 0.3 H Transportation and storage 0.7 2.0 2.7 -1.4 1.1 1.2 2.5 3.1 2.3 3.0 3.9 1.6 4.4 -1.0 -3.3 0.5 -1.5 I Accommodation and food service activities 1.6 4.0 2.1 1.0 2.8 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.7 2.4 2.0 -0.6 -0.2 -0.3 3.2 0.0 2.2 J Information and communication 1.4 2.6 0.9 -1.6 1.0 2.5 3.4 3.5 1.0 1.2 1.8 -0.2 0.0 0.7 -3.6 -1.6 0.0 K Financial and insurance activities -0.7 1.0 0.6 -0.5 1.2 3.2 2.6 -2.6 2.3 2.4 0.8 -2.4 -1.7 6.3 -1.8 -5.1 1.0 L Real estate activities 1.9 3.0 2.9 4.5 2.6 5.3 2.9 1.0 4.1 2.9 3.4 1.6 2.0 4.2 5.3 4.0 1.8 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 2.1 1.6 -0.4 0.0 1.6 1.8 2.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 -0.6 -1.6 1.3 0.4 0.6 -0.9 1.0 N Administrative and support service activities 1.8 4.1 3.5 -0.6 2.5 4.3 4.6 4.8 4.3 3.2 3.9 2.7 -0.4 -1.0 -1.8 1.1 -1.2 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 5.9 -0.6 0.3 0.5 -1.9 -1.1 0.4 0.3 1.2 0.6 -0.1 -0.4 2.6 1.1 -2.0 2.4 -1.1 P Education 3.6 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.7 -0.1 -0.3 0.4 2.6 1.8 0.0 -0.1 0.5 Q Human health and social work activities 12.0 -0.3 -0.7 1.4 -0.4 -1.0 0.3 -0.3 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.5 1.7 2.4 0.8 1.0 -1.6 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 3.9 0.5 -0.7 0.9 0.7 1.4 1.2 -1.2 -0.2 -1.2 -1.0 -0.3 1.1 3.2 -0.5 -0.1 0.5 S Other service activities 1.3 4.2 0.9 0.0 3.2 4.9 5.5 3.3 2.7 1.5 0.6 -1.1 0.3 -0.4 -0.4 0.6 3.4 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate,1 nominal 0.4 -1.7 -0.1 1.8 -0.3 -1.9 -2.3 -2.2 -1.3 0.6 0.6 -0.1 0.9 2.2 2.3 0.9 0.4 Real (relative consumer prices) 0.7 -1.4 -0.9 2.3 -0.3 -1.4 -1.7 -2.3 -1.9 -0.3 -0.9 -0.4 0.9 2.1 3.3 1.5 0.5 Real (relative producer prices)2 2.9 -2.8 -1.3 1.4 -2.4 -3.3 -2.9 -2.8 -2.1 -0.7 -1.0 -1.1 3.8 3.9 1.6 -1.0 -1.9 USD/EUR 1.393 1.327 1.392 1.478 1.384 1.273 1.291 1.359 1.367 1.439 1.413 1.348 1.456 1.482 1.491 1.461 1.427 Sources of data: SORS, AP, BS, ECB, OECD Main Economic Indicators; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 'Relative to 17 trading partners; weights are the shares of individual trading partners in Slovenian exports and imports of goods within manufacturing (5-8 SITC) in 2001-2003; exports are double weighted; a rise in the index value indicates an appreciation of domestic currency and vice versa. ^Industrial producer prices in manufacturing activities. 2010 2011 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 3.6 5.2 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.0 5.1 3.6 2.7 4.1 3.1 3.3 4.3 1.7 1.4 2.8 2.0 1.3 2.5 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.8 3.0 5.7 5.6 4.3 5.6 7.1 8.6 6.6 5.6 5.9 9.3 7.7 8.0 5.7 2.5 6.8 3.4 -1.5 3.8 1.1 0.2 4.1 -3.5 3.5 4.7 1.4 14.0 -0.8 0.8 1.8 3.1 -0.4 0.8 18.6 3.4 0.4 6.8 9.0 -5.8 -1.4 6.4 4.3 6.6 9.7 2.2 6.8 8.3 15.2 10.7 10.1 9.4 8.1 11.0 7.0 5.1 8.3 6.8 5.6 10.1 1.0 1.9 5.2 3.8 1.8 5.2 3.4 2.8 4.6 1.8 6.6 4.3 3.3 0.8 3.0 1.6 6.5 2.7 -3.4 13.0 1.6 -0.2 1.2 3.7 1.6 7.2 6.8 3.6 4.7 2.2 3.7 -8.1 5.6 3.0 5.1 3.5 3.6 2.0 1.6 2.9 1.5 -1.2 3.3 1.5 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 -1.1 3.4 2.3 -1.2 3.3 1.1 2.2 -7.5 -1.3 2.9 4.6 7.2 5.8 4.5 2.1 6.5 3.8 5.6 5.6 4.4 6.1 6.4 4.2 -0.5 1.6 3.4 -0.9 0.9 0.8 -0.5 2.3 -0.5 2.4 5.2 4.2 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.5 2.9 3.8 4.3 1.5 2.2 2.4 3.3 2.0 3.2 1.7 2.4 4.3 2.4 1.8 3.2 1.5 1.6 0.5 1.8 3.4 2.3 2.6 4.0 2.7 2.7 3.4 0.8 1.5 2.0 5.4 9.6 4.0 -1.5 3.5 0.8 0.8 1.8 4.4 3.7 4.2 4.6 4.0 4.1 5.5 5.1 4.1 4.3 5.1 5.6 3.5 2.8 1.7 2.6 1.3 3.3 1.6 0.6 -1.9 -0.3 1.6 1.5 2.3 3.1 2.1 2.9 4.3 3.1 1.1 5.9 3.3 2.1 1.4 -0.6 1.2 1.7 0.5 -0.3 2.5 3.1 1.2 -0.4 -1.3 1.6 1.1 2.5 -0.6 7.6 5.0 1.2 1.5 -4.1 -4.6 1.4 5.2 1.6 0.3 2.6 9.0 -4.0 -1.7 3.2 0.9 -0.6 -6.2 0.5 3.3 2.7 3.7 3.9 8.4 4.1 3.1 1.5 0.8 2.3 -0.4 3.0 2.9 6.5 2.2 4.4 2.3 2.0 4.7 3.4 1.7 1.0 2 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.5 2.1 1.7 3.9 1.3 -0.2 1.4 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 -0.3 -1.2 0.2 -0.9 0.5 -2.9 -2.3 4.1 4.7 5.1 4.1 3.9 3.8 5.3 4.6 5.5 5.7 3.1 5.3 4.5 3.0 2.9 2.8 3.8 3.5 3.1 5.2 2.4 3.2 2.5 -1.5 -3.0 -2.1 -0.6 -0.5 0.9 -0.1 0.3 1.3 0.6 -0.9 0.5 1.0 2.2 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 -0.6 -1.3 0.2 -0.1 0.5 -0.4 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.7 1.2 1.2 0.6 1.2 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 0.1 1.0 -0.4 0.5 1.2 -0.6 -2.3 -0.2 -0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 -1.2 -1.4 -0.7 -0.5 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.1 -1.0 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 0.6 1.0 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.5 -2.2 0.0 -1.5 -0.6 -0.3 0.3 -1.6 -2.1 0.1 -0.2 -1.2 -1.4 1.6 -1.6 -0.8 2.2 4.1 6.1 3.9 4.7 6.0 5.9 4.5 5.4 3.7 1.0 2.5 3.8 1.7 0.0 2.4 2.0 -1.0 1.6 1.1 0.0 -1.6 -1.8 -0.3 -1.1 -1.1 -1.9 -2.7 -2.1 -2.3 -2.5 -2.0 -2.2 -2.5 -2.1 -1.2 -0.6 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -1.1 -0.4 -1.4 -2.2 -1.6 -1.4 -2.0 -1.8 -2.5 -2.5 -2.4 -2.1 -1.1 -0.8 0.0 -0.2 -1.1 -1.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -2.1 -3.2 -3.8 -2.9 -3.2 -2.9 -2.5 -3.2 -2.8 -2.4 -3.2 -2.7 -1.9 -1.6 -0.7 -1.1 -0.2 -1.1 -0.7 -1.1 -1.9 -1.7 -1.0 1.369 1.357 1.341 1.257 1.221 1.277 1.2894 1.3067 1.390 1.366 1.322 1.336 1.365 1.400 1.444 1.435 1.439 1.426 1.434 1.377 1.371 1.356 1.318 PRICES 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 11 12 1 2 3 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 0.9 1.8 1.8 1.1 1.4 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.3 2.5 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.4 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 0.6 1.0 4.4 -1.0 -1.4 0.7 2.6 2.0 3.9 5.0 3.7 5.1 -0.8 -1.1 -2.4 -1.2 -0.7 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 6.7 7.2 5.7 7.9 7.1 6.5 7.3 8.1 8.1 6.3 3.7 4.9 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.6 5.9 Clothing and footwear -0.6 -1.9 -1.6 -3.0 -5.0 -1.9 -0.6 -0.4 -0.7 -2.4 -4.2 0.9 -2.8 -3.4 -5.9 -5.7 -3.6 Housing, water, electricity, gas -0.3 10.2 5.6 3.0 8.3 11.3 12.0 9.0 6.8 5.4 4.8 5.4 4.5 6.3 7.6 8.4 8.9 Furnishings, household equipment 4.0 1.4 2.7 1.9 1.3 0.8 1.3 2.1 2.7 3.9 2.4 1.7 2.2 1.5 1.8 1.6 0.6 Medical, pharmaceutical products 4.0 2.1 1.6 0.7 -0.6 0.6 4.0 4.6 2.9 2.6 0.8 0.3 1.3 0.3 -0.3 -0.7 -0.7 Transport -3.0 -0.3 1.0 0.6 1.2 -0.1 -1.8 -0.5 0.8 0.5 1.1 1.7 1.9 2.9 2.3 0.5 0.9 Communications -4.1 1.4 1.2 -3.2 0.0 1.4 1.3 2.8 2.7 1.6 2.3 -1.8 -4.0 -1.9 -0.6 0.2 0.4 Recreation and culture 3.0 0.4 -1.5 2.5 1.2 0.4 -0.2 0.1 -2.6 -1.0 -1.7 -0.8 2.7 1.7 1.7 1.0 0.8 Education 3.4 1.6 1.7 2.7 2.0 1.9 1.6 0.8 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.4 2.6 2.6 2.4 1.8 1.8 Catering services 4.4 -2.5 -6.8 2.7 1.9 1.9 -2.9 -11.0 -11.0 -10.9 -6.2 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.0 1.8 2.0 Miscellaneous goods & services 3.8 1.4 2.2 3.9 2.3 2.0 0.5 0.7 1.4 2.3 2.4 2.6 4.1 3.6 3.3 2.3 1.3 HCPI 0.9 2.1 2.1 1.4 1.7 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.5 2.6 1.8 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.8 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) 1.9 0.3 1.3 0.7 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.2 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total -1.3 2.1 4.5 -1.8 -1.0 2.3 3.4 3.8 5.7 4.8 4.1 3.6 -1.9 -1.2 -1.4 -1.2 -0.2 Domestic market -0.4 2.0 3.8 -1.1 0.2 2.0 2.8 3.2 4.5 4.1 3.7 2.9 -1.1 -0.7 -0.1 0.1 0.5 Non-domestic market -2.2 2.2 5.3 -2.5 -2.1 2.6 4.0 4.4 6.9 5.5 4.6 4.4 -2.6 -1.7 -2.8 -2.5 -0.9 euro area -3.5 2.2 6.1 -3.0 -2.4 2.5 4.0 4.8 8.2 6.5 5.1 4.6 -2.8 -2.3 -3.0 -3.1 -1.0 non-euro area 0.3 2.1 3.6 -1.6 -1.6 2.7 3.8 3.5 4.0 3.1 3.5 3.8 -2.3 -0.6 -2.4 -1.5 -0.8 Import price indices -3.3 7.4 5.4 -1.8 4.0 8.8 7.8 8.9 8.9 5.5 4.5 2.9 -2.1 0.4 3.3 3.2 5.4 PRICE CONTROL,1 y-o-y growth rates, % Energy prices -12.3 16.5 10.9 0.4 16.1 18.8 15.9 15.3 15.1 9.9 8.3 10.8 3.8 13.0 16.9 13.9 17.5 Oil products -12.0 17.3 11.9 6.2 21.9 20.3 13.5 14.6 15.7 10.5 9.9 11.7 10.3 21.9 24.4 18.6 22.8 Transport & communications 0.6 1.8 1.1 2.5 2.5 2.7 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 Other controlled prices 4.9 1.3 0.0 4.9 4.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 Direct control - total -6.9 14.2 2.8 2.9 14.1 16.1 14.4 12.2 7.2 1.5 0.5 2.1 6.0 11.8 14.6 12.6 15.2 Source of data: SORS, calculations and estimates IMAD. Note: 'The structure of groups varies, data published are not directly comparable to those published previously. The electricity market was liberalized on 1 July 2007. Data from July 2007 onwards are not comparable. Since July 2009, formation of prices for utility services is no longer under government control. 2010 2011 2012 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2.3 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.4 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.9 1.7 2.2 1.3 0.9 0.9 2.1 2.7 2.7 2.0 2.3 -0.1 0.4 1.7 2.8 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.9 2.2 3.7 4.1 3.9 4.2 6.3 4.6 2.9 3.8 4.4 5.6 4.8 4.9 3.9 9.9 5.1 4.5 5.2 8.2 8.5 8.2 8.0 8.1 7.8 8.3 8.3 6.3 6.4 6.2 5.4 2.8 3.0 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.1 -0.9 -2.4 -2.3 -2.1 -1.7 1.9 -1.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -2.1 -2.8 -1.5 -3.0 -4.2 -4.9 -3.4 2.0 2.1 -1.5 -2.2 10.7 11.6 11.7 12.4 12.3 11.4 11.7 7.1 8.3 7.4 6.6 6.5 6.3 5.9 3.9 4.4 4.9 5.1 5.5 5.7 5.0 4.7 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.5 1.3 2.2 2.0 1.8 2.6 2.4 2.5 3.3 3.5 4.2 3.9 3.5 1.7 2.1 1.8 2.0 1.4 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.5 2.8 4.0 5.2 5.1 4.4 4.3 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.8 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.3 0.8 0.4 -1.5 -1.2 -2.0 -2.1 -0.6 -1.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.4 2.0 1.0 1.5 1.6 -0.3 0.7 3.5 2.5 2.8 3.2 1.4 3.3 3.3 2.3 1.9 0.5 3.4 2.5 0.9 -1.8 -0.3 -3.3 -0.1 0.9 0.6 -0.2 -0.6 -0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.4 -0.9 -6.5 -0.4 -0.5 -1.1 -1.3 -1.8 -2.0 -1.2 -0.3 -0.9 -1.2 0.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 0.9 0.4 1.3 0.7 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.5 1.8 0.9 1.6 1.0 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.2 -11.2 -10.9 -11.0 -11.1 -11.1 -11.1 -10.9 -11.2 -10.9 -10.5 -10.2 -9.8 2.7 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.5 1.8 2.1 2.0 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.2 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.1 2.1 1.6 2.2 2.3 2.0 2.4 2.0 2.4 1.6 1.1 1.2 2.3 2.9 2.8 2.1 2.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 1.9 2.3 2.5 2.1 4.6 1.0 2.9 3.0 3.4 3.5 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.2 5.2 5.9 6.0 5.7 4.2 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.7 3.6 3.6 2.4 0.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.5 4.0 4.8 4.8 5.0 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.6 1.9 1.3 3.2 3.3 4.2 4.1 3.6 3.9 4.5 4.9 6.4 7.1 7.2 6.4 4.9 5.1 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.3 4.3 4.5 3.0 1.3 3.2 3.1 4.5 4.1 3.4 4.1 4.8 5.6 7.5 8.6 8.6 7.9 5.8 5.8 4.8 5.2 5.2 4.4 4.7 4.7 2.8 1.4 3.2 3.6 3.4 4.1 4.0 3.2 3.6 3.6 4.0 3.6 4.2 3.0 2.8 3.6 4.1 3.2 3.2 4.1 3.5 4.0 3.5 8.3 9.4 8.7 7.6 7.9 7.7 7.6 8.9 10.3 10.4 8.5 7.9 6.3 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.8 4.3 4.1 3.0 1.8 - 20.1 20.5 15.8 17.4 15.6 14.6 18.2 12.2 15.7 15.5 15.6 14.3 12.0 9.7 7.9 6.3 9.1 9.6 10.8 9.6 10.8 11.9 22.7 22.8 15.6 15.2 13.2 12.1 16.6 11.6 15.6 15.8 16.3 15.2 12.7 10.2 8.7 7.7 10.8 11.3 12.3 11.3 12.3 12.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 16.7 17.2 14.4 15.5 14.3 13.5 15.9 9.2 11.8 11.8 5.4 4.5 3.0 1.5 0.1 -1.0 1.1 1.4 2.2 1.4 2.2 2.9 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 12 12 3 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, in EUR m Current account -456 -297 -168 -10 -4 -118 -84 -91 -56 61 -74 -100 -72 30 -112 78 Goods1 -703 -1,205 -1,297 -287 -190 -273 -234 -508 -309 -273 -301 -413 -158 -25 -121 -44 Exports 16,167 18,386 20,675 4,219 4,205 4,695 4,640 4,847 5,020 5,341 5,117 5,197 1,248 1,228 1,328 1,649 Imports 16,870 19,591 21,971 4,506 4,394 4,968 4,874 5,355 5,328 5,615 5,418 5,610 1,406 1,253 1,448 1,693 Services 1,165 1,308 1,617 303 291 356 346 315 354 443 419 401 78 99 84 107 Exports 4,347 4,633 4,992 1,104 981 1,129 1,348 1,176 1,086 1,226 1,438 1,243 387 315 302 363 Imports 3,182 3,325 3,376 800 690 773 1,001 861 732 783 1,019 842 308 216 218 256 Income -766 -507 -643 -107 -51 -158 -202 -95 -147 -140 -191 -164 -62 -17 -24 -11 Receipts 666 682 900 221 135 194 168 185 212 237 218 232 70 42 40 53 Expenditure 1,432 1,188 1,542 328 186 353 370 280 360 377 409 396 132 59 64 64 Current transfers -152 106 154 81 -53 -43 6 196 47 32 -1 77 70 -27 -52 26 Receipts 966 1,218 1,335 377 263 220 274 461 374 316 308 337 167 65 85 113 Expenditure 1,118 1,112 1,181 296 317 263 268 265 328 284 309 260 97 93 136 87 Capital and financial account 154 319 -414 80 -19 253 190 -106 81 -294 -159 -43 54 5 35 -59 Capital account -9 8 -102 -42 46 3 16 -56 -7 -6 -7 -82 -67 -7 -2 55 Financial account 164 311 -312 121 -65 251 174 -50 88 -289 -151 39 121 12 37 -114 Direct investment -644 334 794 -86 -132 74 57 335 68 250 212 265 25 -37 -72 -23 Domestic abroad -174 60 8 -20 -51 59 19 32 -6 36 55 -77 -26 16 -54 -14 Foreign in Slovenia -470 274 786 -66 -81 15 37 303 73 214 157 342 51 -54 -18 -9 Portfolio investment 4,628 1,947 1,891 310 1,106 508 -54 388 2,591 -314 -419 34 394 1,357 -446 195 Financial derivatives -2 -117 -137 -2 -22 -65 -14 -15 -80 -15 -24 -19 -7 -2 -2 -19 Other investment -3,985 -1,872 -2,933 -120 -1,077 -216 167 -746 -2,499 -222 48 -260 -292 -1,356 550 -271 Assets -277 683 -1,734 105 241 -594 531 504 -1,570 -208 -414 458 295 172 44 25 Commercial credits 416 -174 -139 226 -223 -213 30 232 -320 -89 46 225 327 0 -42 -182 Loans -1 164 -50 46 -348 510 20 -18 -101 -21 50 23 13 -24 19 -343 Currency and deposits -613 609 -1,504 -68 815 -885 387 292 -1,154 -99 -477 227 59 203 62 551 Other assets -80 84 -42 -99 -2 -6 94 -2 6 2 -33 -17 -104 -6 5 -1 Liabilities -3,708 -2,555 -1,199 -226 -1,319 378 -364 -1,250 -930 -14 462 -718 -587 -1,528 506 -296 Commercial credits -452 364 172 -75 91 262 -63 73 200 -15 -88 75 -246 -89 69 112 Loans -2,911 -974 -1,204 -973 -403 -189 -8 -373 -385 -297 209 -731 -846 -39 -18 -346 Deposits -318 -1,934 -169 822 -1,079 358 -305 -909 -787 334 340 -57 500 -1,394 448 -133 Other liabilities -27 -11 2 0 72 -54 12 -42 42 -36 1 -5 5 -6 6 72 International reserves2 167 19 72 20 62 -50 18 -11 9 12 33 19 1 51 7 4 Statistical error 302 -21 582 -70 22 -135 -106 197 -26 233 232 142 18 -35 77 -20 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods 1,783 1,811 N/A 473 403 456 442 510 440 506 496 N/A 151 116 120 167 Intermediate goods 8,090 9,951 N/A 2,093 2,235 2,542 2,544 2,630 2,841 3,043 2,982 N/A 581 657 725 853 Consumer goods 6,144 6,481 N/A 1,620 1,533 1,663 1,620 1,664 1,699 1,739 1,584 N/A 502 445 473 615 Import of investment goods 2,288 2,293 N/A 633 450 612 570 661 555 611 587 N/A 207 122 149 180 Intermediate goods 9,823 12,117 N/A 2,649 2,711 3,064 3,032 3,311 3,437 3,513 3,433 N/A 799 794 906 1,010 Consumer goods 5,004 5,470 N/A 1,292 1,290 1,355 1,351 1,475 1,380 1,512 1,479 N/A 413 362 395 533 Sources of data: BS, SORS. Notes: 1Exports and imports (F.O.B.) include also the adjustment for exports and imports of goods by ITRS and duty-free shops reports. 2Reserve assets of the BS. 2010 2011 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 -27 -87 -5 -21 -58 -6 -41 -57 7 -6 -95 46 39 -83 106 49 -120 -2 15 0 -115 -99 -147 -27 -45 -122 -68 -155 -151 -202 -72 -117 -120 -96 -177 0 -8 -172 -121 -81 -94 -238 1,468 1,566 1,661 1,604 1,306 1,729 1,656 1,700 1,491 1,534 1,602 1,884 1,694 1,835 1,813 1,735 1,490 1,892 1,772 1,862 1,562 1,567 1,713 1,688 1,649 1,428 1,797 1,811 1,850 1,693 1,606 1,719 2,004 1,790 2,013 1,812 1,743 1,662 2,013 1,853 1,956 1,801 119 125 113 88 115 143 132 87 97 123 94 136 163 136 144 99 143 178 160 131 110 373 370 386 462 448 437 394 356 426 353 327 406 414 393 419 478 480 480 428 387 429 254 245 274 374 333 295 262 269 330 230 233 269 252 256 275 380 337 302 267 256 319 -28 -39 -91 -90 -57 -56 -28 -36 -31 -55 -55 -37 -53 -41 -46 -60 -66 -65 -58 -55 -50 58 72 64 65 52 51 54 52 80 61 63 88 70 85 82 77 69 72 75 75 82 85 112 156 155 108 106 81 88 110 117 118 125 123 126 128 136 136 137 134 130 132 -18 -25 0 25 6 -25 9 43 144 -2 -17 66 26 -1 7 18 -25 6 -6 19 64 57 83 80 117 89 68 103 125 234 84 129 161 114 104 98 116 70 122 85 103 149 75 108 80 92 83 93 93 82 90 86 147 95 88 105 91 98 95 116 91 84 85 88 5 160 142 -40 88 59 -236 71 -149 57 174 9 20 -324 -10 -50 -99 -335 0 293 2 -3 4 -8 -4 27 3 4 -63 -9 1 1 -2 0 -4 -7 -4 3 -2 9 -89 86 8 157 149 -36 61 56 -240 134 -140 55 173 11 20 -320 -3 -46 -102 -333 -9 382 -26 19 81 89 36 -68 74 213 47 -82 -12 162 98 97 55 17 74 121 -41 -47 353 -11 29 41 8 25 -14 -8 36 5 -56 22 29 -7 7 36 -57 42 70 -56 -4 -17 -15 -11 41 80 11 -54 82 178 43 -26 -34 133 105 90 19 74 32 51 15 -43 370 609 -202 100 78 -29 -103 68 182 138 1,136 -207 1,661 -361 271 -224 72 -48 -444 144 -102 -9 -11 -21 -33 -5 -4 -5 -8 -4 -4 -29 -31 -20 -5 -5 -5 -4 -4 -16 -2 -8 -8 -518 272 31 -9 -34 211 -97 -615 -34 -1,175 287 -1,612 265 -343 -144 -76 -84 208 -419 104 56 -24 -631 61 697 -203 37 -168 -624 1,296 -1,057 337 -850 60 -99 -169 -518 -42 146 -361 283 536 -37 -88 -87 -6 195 -158 -102 -68 402 -217 29 -132 -83 30 -36 -40 200 -114 -134 40 319 415 25 70 127 18 -124 -33 -3 18 -51 4 -54 14 -16 -19 -19 27 42 -48 22 48 -409 -554 78 568 -488 308 -20 -547 858 -779 311 -685 119 -110 -108 -445 -250 218 -188 217 197 7 -13 0 9 73 12 -13 -5 17 -9 -7 22 11 -3 -6 -14 -19 0 9 3 -29 -494 902 -30 -705 168 173 71 8 -1,330 -118 -49 -762 206 -244 25 442 -42 62 -58 -179 -480 54 127 82 -30 -182 149 135 61 -123 -42 60 181 142 8 -165 -10 -263 185 -22 144 -47 -279 328 -238 -40 -21 53 -240 242 -375 -109 -86 -189 -213 -226 142 243 -41 7 -201 -431 -99 -206 455 109 -607 348 -46 180 -288 -801 3 -8 -781 274 -26 86 202 237 -99 158 103 -319 -63 -8 17 -28 23 17 -5 -7 -30 30 -15 27 2 0 -38 7 25 -31 7 4 -16 32 -60 -23 -3 -4 25 19 -16 -13 10 17 -18 13 1 -2 -12 15 29 -15 44 -10 -62 82 -155 -121 97 -82 -18 293 -79 155 39 -219 -48 63 218 -39 171 101 320 0 -177 142 155 158 159 125 159 164 170 176 126 141 173 153 179 174 173 152 170 167 175 N/A 803 856 883 878 713 952 920 927 783 888 904 1,050 977 1,043 1,023 998 894 1,090 1,009 1,046 N/A 513 543 607 554 458 607 558 591 515 509 544 646 548 594 597 545 426 612 578 619 N/A 213 218 180 179 148 243 188 226 247 148 173 234 183 225 204 204 165 218 201 218 N/A 956 1,068 1,040 1,039 888 1,106 1,153 1,128 1,030 1,032 1,106 1,299 1,129 1,239 1,145 1,107 1,057 1,269 1,184 1,217 N/A 430 462 463 452 420 479 496 536 443 422 452 506 471 554 487 468 466 545 496 526 N/A MONETARY INDICATORS AND INTEREST RATES 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1|2|3|4|5|6|7 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 160 138 102 166 161 161 160 176 177 140 140 142 141 140 Central government (S. 1311) 3,497 3,419 4,300 3,610 3,625 3,581 3,497 3,334 3,382 2,884 2,897 3,001 3,120 3,130 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 376 526 584 281 305 336 376 390 395 390 392 395 401 415 Households (S. 14, 15) 8,413 9,282 9,454 8,231 8,295 8,345 8,413 8,452 8,480 8,601 8,647 8,701 8,897 8,928 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 21,704 21,646 20,871 21,704 21,688 21,645 21,704 21,792 21,896 21,950 22,062 21,997 22,015 22,024 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 2,680 2,497 2,226 2,846 2,846 2,772 2,680 2,684 2,669 2,620 2,606 2,558 2,525 2,524 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 5,302 5,811 5,455 4,723 4,563 4,589 5,302 6,141 5,093 5,057 5,555 5,638 6,120 5,445 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 34,731 35,994 35,692 34,045 33,922 33,962 34,731 35,678 34,817 34,893 35,430 35,620 35,929 35,495 In foreign currency 1,895 1,843 1,536 1,969 1,939 1,919 1,895 1,904 1,894 1,887 1,859 1,852 1,915 1,860 Securities, total 5,345 5,345 5,660 5,380 5,460 5,386 5,345 5,211 5,204 4,723 4,871 4,819 5,234 5,112 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 27,965 26,767 28,420 26,950 26,861 26,932 27,965 28,953 28,198 27,716 27,949 28,085 27,929 27,079 Overnight 7,200 8,155 8,245 7,079 6,940 7,028 7,200 7,949 7,139 7,396 7,351 7,732 7,976 7,936 With agreed maturity -short-term 10,408 8,193 7,868 11,332 11,109 10,917 10,408 10,385 10,137 9,233 9,006 8,674 8,377 8,574 With agreed maturity -long-term 9,788 10,337 12,248 8,000 8,257 8,396 9,788 10,042 10,390 10,583 11,067 11,196 11,401 10,413 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 569 82 59 539 555 591 569 577 532 504 525 483 175 156 Deposits in foreign currency, total 434 463 579 463 458 453 434 426 438 436 450 496 705 462 Overnight 238 285 386 244 242 261 238 240 241 250 270 299 513 280 With agreed maturity -short-term 141 121 133 171 169 142 141 133 137 127 121 130 129 122 With agreed maturity -long-term 45 55 59 43 42 43 45 48 52 55 55 59 61 58 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 10 2 1 5 5 7 10 5 8 4 4 8 2 2 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.28 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.22 0.19 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 2.51 1.81 2.15 2.14 2.04 1.97 2.00 1.91 1.75 1.69 1.66 1.72 1.83 1.87 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 6.43 5.53 5.46 6.64 6.74 5.00 6.28 6.11 6.08 5.33 5.80 5.38 5.42 5.12 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 6.28 5.76 5.72 6.66 6.47 5.94 6.06 6.15 6.31 5.64 5.98 6.03 5.61 5.40 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operation^ 1.2^ 1.0^ 1.2^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.00 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates 1.23 0.81 1.39 0.77 0.74 0.72 0.71 0.68 0.66 0.64 0.64 0.69 0.73 0.85 6-month rates 1.44 1.08 1.64 1.04 1.02 0.99 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.96 0.98 1.01 1.10 LIBOR CHF 3-month rates 0.37 0.19 0.12 0.30 0.27 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.19 0.10 0.13 6-month rates 0.50 0.27 0.18 0.45 0.41 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.28 0.20 Sources of data: BS, BBA - British Bankers' Association. 2010 2011 2012 8 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 142 140 139 139 138 132 101 99 76 76 76 76 76 77 76 83 102 111 3,326 3,422 3,447 3,453 3,419 3,332 3,326 3,409 3,319 3,327 3,282 3,276 3,328 3,355 3,387 3,436 4,300 4,466 421 417 434 497 526 538 536 541 532 530 533 534 536 535 541 554 584 588 9,062 9,119 9,149 9,225 9,282 9,226 9,233 9,276 9,304 9,383 9,425 9,507 9,490 9,468 9,481 9,467 9,454 9,421 21,815 21,862 21,848 21,790 21,646 21,793 21,775 21,772 21,782 21,714 21,725 21,656 21,537 21,369 21,444 21,434 20,871 20,970 2,502 2,488 2,496 2,497 2,497 2,454 2,402 2,372 2,350 2,341 2,325 2,323 2,292 2,298 2,286 2,277 2,226 2,207 5,315 5,399 5,079 5,688 5,811 5,674 5,740 6,504 5,179 5,275 5,259 5,224 5,422 5,375 5,491 5,224 5,455 5,121 35,381 35,616 35,430 35,931 35,994 35,993 36,008 36,712 35,736 35,811 35,836 35,720 35,854 35,763 35,975 35,784 35,692 35,407 1,884 1,828 1,742 1,777 1,843 1,760 1,739 1,691 1,689 1,751 1,724 1,794 1,705 1,628 1,580 1,557 1,536 1,529 5,175 5,263 5,282 5,444 5,345 5,265 5,266 5,470 5,043 5,008 4,990 5,007 5,046 5,008 5,075 5,052 5,660 5,838 27,358 26,819 26,696 27,486 26,767 27,630 27,235 28,129 27,080 27,205 27,384 27,392 27,423 27,337 27,631 27,376 28,420 28,359 8,041 8,031 7,926 8,119 8,155 8,245 8,179 8,799 8,206 8,237 8,259 8,303 8,241 8,236 8,058 8,436 8,245 8,399 8,621 8,096 8,100 8,256 8,193 8,816 8,483 8,724 8,477 8,614 8,615 8,471 8,468 8,369 8,372 7,791 7,868 7,688 10,529 10,532 10,587 11,003 10,337 10,496 10,550 10,583 10,375 10,324 10,470 10,567 10,662 10,683 11,148 11,089 12,248 12,180 167 160 83 108 82 73 23 23 22 30 40 51 52 49 53 60 59 92 491 462 456 471 463 452 453 449 444 459 464 488 476 486 494 538 579 570 307 277 286 291 285 282 287 284 286 295 304 317 305 320 329 365 386 391 121 125 113 118 121 115 116 113 107 111 107 113 108 109 109 114 133 117 60 57 55 59 55 53 49 51 50 52 52 57 62 57 55 58 59 61 3 3 2 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.26 0.24 0.24 1.82 1.85 1.86 1.88 1.94 2.04 1.98 2.04 2.08 2.15 2.20 2.20 2.18 2.17 2.24 2.27 2.28 2.39 5.33 5.17 5.50 5.43 5.65 5.85 5.17 5.45 5.51 5.42 5.52 5.39 5.49 5.45 5.5 5.43 5.27 5.37- 5.84 4.98 5.72 6.00 5.44 5.83 5.45 5.4 5.25 5.82 5.97 6.17 6.48 5.91 4.25 5.20 6.51 3.79 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.2^ 1.2^ 1.2^ 1.5^ 1.5^ 1.5^ 1.5^ 1.2^ 1.0^ 1.00 0.90 0.88 1.00 1.04 1.02 1.02 1.09 1.18 1.32 1.42 1.49 1.60 1.55 1.54 1.58 1.48 1.43 1.22 1.15 1.14 1.22 1.27 1.25 1.25 1.35 1.48 1.62 1.71 1.75 1.82 1.75 1.74 1.78 1.71 1.67 1.50 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.06 0.01 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.12 0.05 0.08 0.09 0.10 - PUBLIC FINANCE 2008 2009 2010 2009 2010 2011 2010 Q3 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 6 1 7 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS-IMF methodology), current prices, EUR m GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 15,339.2 14,408.0 14,794.0 3,558.8 4,023.5 3,310.2 3,477.0 3,649.9 4,356.8 3,600.7 3,826.7 3,667.7 1,247.5 1,183.6 Current revenues 14,792.3 13,639.5 13,771.5 3,470.3 3,642.3 3,157.4 3,366.8 3,462.4 3,784.8 3,364.6 3,638.6 3,490.7 1,191.5 1,110.0 Tax revenues 13,937.4 12,955.4 12,848.4 3,279.0 3,453.0 2,983.4 3,189.2 3,186.0 3,489.9 3,155.9 3,451.0 3,296.0 1,131.4 1,027.0 Taxes on income and profit 3,442.2 2,805.1 2,490.7 735.5 744.8 635.5 594.4 554.5 706.4 635.4 827.7 639.2 276.4 114.1 Social security contributions 5,095.0 5,161.3 5,234.5 1,260.6 1,334.5 1,274.4 1,303.8 1,293.5 1,362.9 1,300.6 1,316.9 1,314.9 434.8 432.7 Taxes on payroll and workforce 258.0 28.5 28.1 6.2 7.7 6.3 7.2 6.5 8.1 6.7 7.6 7.8 2.5 2.6 Taxes on property 214.9 207.0 219.7 74.6 60.2 24.1 58.9 76.7 60.0 24.0 53.8 72.1 18.0 24.7 Domestic taxes on goods and services 4,805.3 4,660.2 4,780.7 1,184.2 1,283.1 1,023.9 1,199.2 1,231.6 1,325.9 1,165.5 1,217.4 1,234.4 391.1 444.4 Taxes on international trade & transactions 120.1 90.5 90.7 17.2 21.7 18.7 24.7 22.5 24.8 23.7 27.6 27.7 8.1 8.4 Other taxes 1.8 2.9 4.0 0.7 1.0 0.5 1.0 0.7 1.8 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.5 0.2 Non-tax revenues 854.9 684.1 923.0 191.3 189.3 174.1 177.6 276.5 294.9 208.7 187.6 194.7 60.1 83.0 Capital revenues 117.3 106.5 175.7 19.3 43.5 9.8 17.9 26.1 121.9 7.6 21.6 15.8 5.3 9.4 Grants 10.4 11.1 12.6 1.9 4.7 2.9 2.2 2.5 5.0 2.4 3.0 2.2 0.3 1.1 Transferred revenues 53.9 54.3 109.5 1.1 51.5 0.5 2.3 3.8 102.9 2.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 2.0 Receipts from the EU budget 365.4 596.5 724.7 66.2 281.5 139.6 87.8 155.1 342.2 223.9 163.2 158.6 49.5 61.2 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TOTAL EXPENDITURES 15,441.7 16,368.2 16,692.7 3,767.1 4,659.5 4,035.1 4,122.7 3,948.1 4,586.9 4,191.6 4,159.0 4,108.2 1,335.4 1,302.9 Current expenditures 6,557.5 6,800.8 6,960.4 1,578.1 1,771.3 1,795.2 1,757.3 1,636.9 1,771.0 1,898.6 1,742.3 1,648.8 548.9 529.5 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3,578.9 3,911.9 3,912.4 955.4 985.9 956.4 1,012.5 963.6 980.0 966.5 1,009.8 1,019.1 321.5 319.7 Expenditures on goods and services 2,527.5 2,510.3 2,512.4 603.9 741.4 556.8 624.9 587.7 743.1 585.8 616.2 610.6 219.6 203.2 Interest payments 335.2 336.1 488.2 12.0 29.0 272.6 110.0 76.4 29.2 311.3 108.1 10.7 4.6 4.0 Reserves 116.0 42.5 47.4 6.8 14.9 9.4 9.9 9.2 18.8 35.0 8.2 8.3 3.3 2.5 Current transfers 6,742.2 7,339.4 7,628.5 1,736.9 1,918.2 1,849.0 1,995.1 1,810.9 1,973.6 1,942.5 2,076.4 2,061.3 629.9 608.7 Subsidies 476.5 597.9 581.9 86.5 219.4 160.7 122.8 103.7 194.7 171.2 127.6 109.4 40.9 39.3 Current transfers to individuals and households 5,619.2 6,024.5 6,277.7 1,475.9 1,497.6 1,529.0 1,671.1 1,514.7 1,562.9 1,606.6 1,745.6 1,741.4 513.6 509.1 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 598.3 678.1 728.8 164.5 195.1 150.6 188.6 183.3 206.3 158.8 186.2 192.8 68.0 59.0 Current transfers abroad 48.2 38.9 40.1 9.9 6.1 8.7 12.6 9.1 9.6 5.9 17.0 17.8 7.5 1.4 Capital expenditures 1,255.5 1,294.1 1,310.6 297.5 584.1 192.8 212.5 321.1 584.3 168.8 196.5 220.8 86.7 108.2 Capital transfers 458.6 494.6 396.4 86.0 259.9 47.5 90.1 82.0 176.9 42.4 73.3 94.4 52.0 25.6 Payments to the EU budget 427.9 439.3 396.8 68.7 126.1 150.6 67.8 97.3 81.1 139.3 70.6 82.9 17.9 30.8 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -102.5 -1,960.2 -1,898.7 - - - - - Source of data: MF Bulletin. Note: In line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the general government are not consolidated. * In the "corrected outturn" column, certain categories of revenues that remained on unallocated fund accounts were estimated based on previous months' dynamics. Unallocated funds are a consequence of the introduction of a new DURS information system and the modification of the fiscal revenue payment system on 1 October 2011. 2010 2011 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 10M 11 1 11* 1,286.2 1,180.1 1,188.3 1,461.5 1,707.1 1,205.5 1,118.2 1,277.0 1,256.2 1,269.2 1,301.3 1,097.3 1,220.5 1,220.6 1,294.1 1,290.5 1,356.8 1,361.1 1,232.7 1,119.7 1,132.5 1,263.8 1,388.4 1,147.1 1,045.0 1,172.5 1,185.3 1,208.5 1,244.8 1,037.4 1,181.0 1,100.8 1,239.4 1,235.8 1,260.6 1,265.0 1,103.3 1,055.6 1,073.1 1,189.1 1,227.7 1,094.8 950.0 1,111.1 1,131.8 1,141.3 1,177.8 976.9 1,111.6 1,041.2 1,174.0 1,170.4 1,181.2 1,185.5 226.9 213.4 218.8 219.0 268.6 215.1 208.1 212.1 294.5 237.9 295.4 106.0 221.0 235.8 103.2 223.8 236.2 227.5 428.8 432.0 434.9 436.4 491.6 437.7 424.6 438.4 438.3 439.6 439.0 436.3 431.5 436.1 172.8 416.5 386.7 444.0 1.9 2.0 2.6 2.4 3.1 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 1.9 2.1 0.9 2.6 1.6 2.4 27.4 24.6 13.7 31.2 15.1 7.4 8.3 8.3 7.1 25.7 21.0 25.4 30.8 28.0 4.7 9.5 33.9 33.9 411.2 376.1 393.8 492.0 440.2 424.5 299.4 441.6 380.3 426.2 410.9 397.3 420.1 331.1 446.5 456.8 493.2 495.4 6.8 7.3 9.2 7.1 8.5 7.8 7.7 8.2 9.1 9.4 9.0 9.2 6.4 8.2 7.3 7.3 8.6 8.6 0.2 0.3 0.1 1.2 0.5 0.0 -0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 438.5 53.9 20.9 -26.3 129.4 64.1 59.5 74.7 160.8 52.3 95.0 61.4 53.5 67.2 66.9 60.5 69.4 59.6 65.5 65.5 79.5 79.5 13.5 3.3 7.3 31.1 83.5 2.0 2.7 2.8 10.9 3.4 7.3 5.1 4.2 5.1 3.6 3.6 6.1 6.1 1.0 0.5 1.2 1.9 1.9 0.9 0.4 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 2.2 2.2 0.9 0.9 0.5 100.9 1.5 1.5 0.0 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 50.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 38.1 55.8 46.7 63.7 231.8 54.1 70.0 99.8 58.9 56.0 48.2 54.3 35.1 63.9 50.3 50.3 87.6 87.6 1,272.4 1,372.8 1,373.5 1,419.6 1,793.9 1,418.9 1,408.8 1,363.8 1,359.4 1,476.9 1,322.8 1,308.6 1,321.4 1,325.7 1,332.4 1,328.8 1,363.9 1,368.3 529.0 578.4 557.2 543.8 670.0 638.7 637.0 622.9 629.0 585.2 528.1 535.5 540.4 569.6 544.4 544.4 530.7 530.7 324.8 319.0 329.2 322.8 328.0 325.9 315.9 324.8 312.1 377.6 320.2 321.4 320.5 312.7 322.0 322.0 319.9 319.9 200.5 183.9 203.2 216.9 323.0 202.3 184.1 199.4 213.1 203.4 199.7 207.6 215.7 180.6 196.6 196.6 204.6 204.6 0.9 71.5 21.9 1.5 5.8 88.6 134.5 88.2 101.3 1.5 5.3 3.9 2.3 71.7 21.9 21.9 1.9 1.9 2.8 4.0 2.9 2.7 13.2 22.0 2.5 10.5 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.6 1.9 4.5 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.3 590.1 612.0 624.5 633.0 716.1 673.8 628.3 640.3 635.9 781.7 658.8 620.8 619.8 615.0 611.3 607.7 638.3 642.7 27.6 36.8 46.4 50.2 98.1 97.5 46.4 27.4 40.9 36.8 49.9 22.7 22.9 23.6 17.0 17.0 39.3 39.3 501.2 504.4 516.8 519.5 526.6 521.6 532.8 552.2 534.7 673.0 537.8 530.5 529.9 522.6 527.1 526.4 544.2 540.0 59.4 64.9 58.2 59.0 89.1 51.2 48.7 58.8 54.9 61.9 69.4 61.5 65.9 61.6 65.9 63.0 53.7 62.3 1.9 5.8 3.1 4.2 2.3 3.6 0.4 1.9 5.4 9.9 1.7 6.2 1.1 7.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 99.7 113.2 116.1 161.6 306.6 58.8 50.7 59.4 54.2 62.0 80.3 78.5 105.5 82.5 94.6 94.6 111.5 111.5 22.1 34.3 40.7 68.1 68.2 12.5 11.5 18.4 20.4 21.1 31.8 41.4 29.1 26.5 49.3 49.3 48.1 48.1 31.6 34.9 35.1 13.1 33.0 35.1 81.3 22.9 19.9 26.9 23.8 32.3 26.5 32.1 32.8 32.8 35.3 35.3 - - - - - - - - - Acronyms Acronyms in the text BS - Bank of Slovenia, EC - European Commission, ECB - European Central Bank, ESS - Employment Service of Slovenia, EU - European union, GDP - Gross domestic product, HICP -Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, IMAD - Institute of macroeconomic Analysis and Development, IMF - International Monetary Fund, MF - Ministry of Finance, NFI - Nonmonetary Financial Institutions, OECD - Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, RS - Republic of Slovenia, SCA - Standard Classification of Activities, SITC - Standard International Trade Classification, SMA - Securities Market Agency, SORS - Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, SRE - Statistical Register of Employment. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities (SCA) A - Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B - Mining and quarrying, C - Manufacturing, 10 - Manufacture of food products, 11 - Manufacture of beverages, 12 - Manufacture of tobacco products, 13 - Manufacture of textiles, 14 - Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15 - Manufacture of leather and related products, 16 - Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17 - Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18 - Printing and reproduction of recordedmedia, 19-Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, 20- Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21 - Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22 - Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23 - Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24 - Manufacture of basic metals, 25 - Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26 - Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27 - Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28 - Manufacture of machinery and equipmentn.e.c.,29-Manufacture ofmotor vehicles, trailersandsemi-trailers,30-Manufactureofother transport equipment, 31 - Manufacture of furniture, 32 - Other manufacturing, 33 - Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D-Electricity,gas,steamandairconditioningsupply,E-Watersupplysewerage,wastemanagementandremediationactivities, F - Construction, G - Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H - Transportation and storage, I - Accommodation and food service activities, J - Information and communication, K - Financial and insurance activities, L -Real estate activities, M - Professional, scientific and technical activities, N - Administrative and support service activities, O - Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P - Education, Q - Human health and social work activities, R - Arts, entertainment and recreation, S - Other service activities, T - Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods- and services- producing activities of households for own use, U - Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AT-Austria, BA-Bosnia and Herzegovina, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, HR-Croatia, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IE-Ireland, IL-Israel, IT-Italy, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RS-Republic of Serbia, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America. Slovenian economic mirror February 2012, No. 2. Vol. XVIII