Slovenian Economic Mirror J imad Economic Analyses/February 2008 No. 2, Vol. XIV Slovenian Economic Mirror presents current macroeconomic developments as well as selected economic, social and environmental issues. The publication consists of articles, which present the main economic indicators, assess the realisation of the spring and autumn forecasts, and monitor implementation of economic policies (earnings, public finance, prices, competitiveness, etc.). The periodical is published monthly, except in September. This issue of Slovenian Economic Mirror was prepared by: Mateja Peternelj (In the Spotlight), Jure Brložnik (International Environment), Miha Trošt (Price Trends & Policy), Marjan Hafner (Money Market - Household Savings, Money Market - Loans), Tomaž Kraigher (Labour Market, Labour Market -Unemployment in 2007), Saša Kovačič (Earnings), Katarina Ivas (Manufacturing), Janez Kušar (Construction), Maja Kersnik (Risk of Poverty and Income Inequality), Mateja Kovač, Katarina Ivas (Meat and Meat Products). Director: Boštjan Vasle. Editor in Chief: Luka Žakelj. Translator: Tina Potrato. Language Editing: Translation and Interpretation Division of the Secretariat-General of the Government of the RS. Technical Editor: Ema Bertina Kopitar. Statistical Appendix, Data Preparation & Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman. Distribution: Katja Ferfolja. Printed by: Tiskarna Štrok. Concept & Design: Sandi Radovan, Studio DVA. Circulation: 500 copies. Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development Gregorčičeva 27, 1000 Ljubljana (+386 1) 478 10 12 fax: 478 10 70 Editor in chief: luka.zakeli@gov.si Translator: tina.potrato@gov.si Distribution: publicistika.umar@gov.si SEM can be found on the Internet at http://www.gov.si/aindex/. Publication is included in Ebsco Publishing Database and Internet Securities Database. © Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, 1995-2008. The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 2/2008 p. 2 In the Spotlight Gradual deceleration of economic growth in the EMU and Slovenia p. 3 International Environment The European Commission lowered its forecast of economic growth in the EMU for 2008 and raised its inflation forecast p. 4 Price Trends & Policy The January price increase again largely attributable to higher prices of food and energy p. 5 Money Market -Household Savings Household bank savings picked up in 2007; mutual funds enjoyed even stronger growth p. 6 Money Market - Loans Vigorous lending activity of domestic banks continued in 2007 p. 7 Labour Market Seasonal layoffs in December influenced the January increase in registered unemployment p. 8 Labour Market - Unemployment in 2007 The number of unemployed and the unemployment rate declined significantly in 2007 p. 9 Earnings Higher increase in net earnings than gross earnings in 2007 attributable to personal income tax legislation changes p. 10 Manufacturing Production activity slowed further in December; average growth in 2007 the highest in 15 years p. 11 Construction Despite the slowdown in the second half of the year, average growth in 2007 was even higher than in the boom year 2006 p. 12 SELECTED TOPICS Risk of Poverty and Income Inequality Social transfers significantly reduce the risk of poverty, which is among the lowest in Europe p. 15 Meat and Meat Products Upward pressures on retail prices of meat and meat products, which increased much more than producer prices last year, may have stemmed from meat-processing firms pp. 16-17 Data: (pp. A 1-A 12), Main indicators (p. A 13), International Comparisons (pp. A 14-15), Graphs (pp. A 16-17). Selected indicators of current economic developments, change in % Latest data Compared to the previous month same period of previous year latest data pre-latest data pre-pre latest data Industrial production (value based) XII -17.8 7.0 7.6 8.2 Manufacturing XII -18.4 8.4 8.9 9.5 Electricity, gas and water supply XII 2.2 -11.2 -10.0 -9.5 Value of construction put in place, real terms XII -18.0 18.5 21.7 23.6 Exports of goods (nominal terms)1 XI -4.1 17.0 17.7 17.8 Imports of goods (nominal terms)1 XI -4.1 18.8 20.2 20.2 Real effective exchange rate2 XII 0.1 2.3 2.2 2.0 Gross wage per employee, real terms XII -10.4 2.2 2.4 2.4 Total household savings in banks,3 nominal terms XII 4.9 9.5 7.7 11.4 General government revenue, real terms I -11.8 4.1 4.0 4.5 Number of persons in paid employment XII -0.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 Number of registered unemployed I 1.2 -13.4 -16.9 -17.2 Number of job vacancies I 57.7 11.7 6.6 7.9 Month current previous pre-previous Registered unemployment rate XII 7.3 7.3 7.4 Month current cumulative annual4 Consumer prices II 0.0 0.0 6.5 Producer prices (domestic market) I 0.8 0.8 6.5 Sources of data: SORS, BS, ESS, estimates and calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1balance of payments' statistics; 2euro exchange rate for Slovenia measured by relative consumer prices; the calculation of the effective exchange rate includes the currencies/prices of Slovenia's 17 trading partners (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Italy, France, Netherlands, Spain, Denmark, United Kingdom, Sweden, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, USA, Switzerland, Japan); weights are the shares of individual trading partners in Slovenian exports and imports of goods within manufacturing (5-8 SITC) in 2001-2003; exports are double weighted; 3the year-on-year growth rate is defined as the ratio between the stock at the end of the current month and the stock in the same month of the previous year; 4total in the last 12 months. In the Spotlight Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 2/2008 p. 3 Economic growth in the EMU decelerated at the end of 2007 and is expected to moderate further this year. In the final quarter of 2007, real GDP growth in the EMU slowed from 2.6% to 2.2% (y-o-y, seasonally adjusted), which, next to the moderation in exports, largely reflected the lower growth of private consumption caused by the high increases in food and energy prices. Based on the expected cooling of economic activity this year, which will be greater than projected in the autumn owing to the consequences of the international financial turmoil and the rapid slowdown of growth in the United States, the EC marked its EMU GDP growth forecast for this year down from 2.2% to 1.8%. Economic growth is expected to be largely driven by private consumption, which will continue to be supported by the favourable labour market conditions market. Further hikes in food and energy prices are regarded as the main stumbling block to faster growth of household spending. This is the main reason behind the EC upward revision of this year's inflation forecast by 0.5 p.p. to 2.6% (see p. 4). The Slovenian economy is also cooling. Activity in construction and manufacturing, which last year reached its peak in the last few years, has continued to moderate gradually. The growth of construction put in place eased off in Q4 of 2007, while in the year as a whole, it topped the 2006 level by 18.5% thanks to vigorous construction of infrastructure and favourable weather conditions (see p. 12). The manufacturing sector, which enjoyed one of the highest growth rates in the EU last year (8.4%), witnessed a further moderation in Q4 in all activities except the chemical industry and the manufacture of transport equipment, which retained the booming activity rates from Q3. Data on business trends also suggest a further moderation in growth this year (see p. 11). The growth of goods exports and imports softened in the latter part of the year. According to preliminary data, exports of goods increased by a nominal 10.3% in Q4 of 2007, while imports of goods increased by 9.7% (in Q3 by 17.8% and 19.1%, respectively). The available SICT data for the first 11 months of 2007 show a deceleration in export growth for most products, whereas exports of road vehicles picked up further in October and November. Thanks to the robust growth in the first three quarters, goods exports and imports increased considerably in 2007 over 2006 (by 15.5% and 16.7%). The current account deficit widened considerably last year. The increase (by EUR 765 m to EUR 1.6 bn or 4.9% of estimated GDP) primarily reflected a higher deficit in the trade balance (in addition to strong export growth, last year also saw a substantial increase in import growth of intermediate goods and investment equipment, notably transport equipment) and factor incomes (mainly higher payment of interest on external debt). On the other hand, the surplus in services trade increased further last year and contributed positively to the current account balance. The labour market showed no visible signs of cooling towards the end of 2007. According to seasonally adjusted data, employment continued to increase in December. Data from the labour force survey confirm that trends in Q4 of 2007 were favourable. A possible cooling is only indicated by the relatively weaker hiring of the unemployed in the second half of the year. Overall, results on the labour market in 2007 were favourable and better than expected, although some structural imbalances persisted. Formal employment increased by 3.5% (approximately two fifths of the increase was linked to additional hiring of foreign workers); for the third year in a row, the largest increases were recorded in construction and business services. The registered unemployment rate declined by 1.7 p.p. to 7.7%, whereas survey unemployment is estimated to have fallen by 1.1 p.p. to 4.9% (see pp. 8-9). Wage growth remained macroeconomically sustainable despite the economic boom. Net wages increased appreciably more than gross wages, owing to changed in tax legislation (see p. 10). The dynamics of household loans and deposits in November and December were marked by the privatisation of Slovenia's second-largest bank; in the year as a whole, household savings picked up. Bank lending activity also remained strong despite the increase in interest rates. After the surge in loans and drop in bank savings linked to the purchase of shares upon the privatisation of the second-largest bank in November, December saw net repayment of household loans; households also reinvested overpayments back into bank deposits and mutual funds. Otherwise, household savings in banks, and even more in mutual funds, picked up last year. The surge in the volume of deposits appears to reflect the increase in net wages and the gradual raising of deposit interest rates, whereas the high inflows into domestic mutual funds were largely linked to the large returns in the first three quarters of 2007. The strong lending activity of domestic banks was mainly based on corporate loans; within that, working capital loans, which companies needed to finance booming production activity, contributed the most to overall growth. Household loans also continued to increase at a vigorous pace; half of the increase stemmed from housing loans. The increase in the total volume of loans reached 32.4% (EMU average: 11.1%). Faster growth in Slovenia can be partly explained by the catching-up process, since the share of loans relative to GDP was still relatively low in 2007 (80.6%; EMU: 125.5%), although the gap has been narrowing gradually (see pp. 6-7). Consumer prices remained unchanged in February. Although the prices of liquid fuels decreased as a result of trends on global markets, the prices of clothing and footwear increased owing to the usual seasonal swings. Due to the base effect, year-on-year inflation nevertheless increased by 0.1 p.p. to 6.5%. External shocks remain the main factors of the high inflation, but they have a stronger impact in Slovenia than in other EMU countries. Thus, higher prices of food and energy have translated into stronger growth of goods prices, which contributed more than 90% to the overall increase in inflation above the equilibrium level (estimated at 3%) in the last 12 months (the rapid growth of services prices contributed less than 10%). Inflation expectations for the coming months are based on the expected slowdown in energy and other commodity prices on the global market and on the agreements about the key policies in Slovenia. In our estimate, both of these factors are currently marked by great uncertainty. International Environment Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 2/2008 p. 4 Comparison of forecasts/assumptions of real GDP growth 2007 2008 2009 % CONS IMAD EC OECD CONS EC IMAD EC OECD CONS Feb. 08 Sep. 07 Nov. 07 Dec. 07 Feb. 08 Feb. 08 Sep. 07 Nov. 07 Dec. 07 Feb. 08 EU 2.8 2.5 2.4 N/A 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.4 N/A 2.1 EMU 2.6 2.3 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.9 Germany 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.9 2.2 1.6 1.9 Italy 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.7 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.4 France 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.2 1.8 2.0 1.9 Austria 3.4 2.4 2.7 2.5 2.4 N/A 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.3 Source of data: IMAD, Autumn Forecast 2007 (September 20007); EC Autumn Forecast (November 2007); OECD Economic Outlook (December 2007); Consensus Forecasts (February 2008); EC Interim forecast (February 2008). As expected, economic growth in the euro area slowed towards the end of 2007. The European Commission made a downward revision to its 2008 growth forecast. Real GDP growth in the euro area declined from 2.6% to 2.2% in the final three months of 2007 (y-o-y, seasonally adjusted). In view of the expected lower global economic growth, which is also signalled by the Ifo world economic climate index (which dropped to its lowest level since 2003 in Q1), the European Commission reduced its autumn forecast for 2008 (2.2%) to 1.8%. Despite the revision, the EC forecast is 0.2 p.p. higher than the January IMF forecast and the February Consensus forecast. This month the Fed also scaled down its forecast of GDP growth in the United States by 0.5 p.p., to 1.3-2.0%. At the same time, inflation forecasts for the current year were revised upwards, mainly due to the expected further large increases in the prices of oil and commodities. The EC raised its autumn inflation forecast for the euro area by 0.5 p.p. to 2.6%. Similarly, the Fed revised its inflation forecast by 0.3 p.p. to 2.1-2.4%. While economic growth is projected to moderate in developed countries, it will remain strong in the rapidly growing markets, notably Asia. These economies have been the main drivers of demand for raw materials in the past few years, when demand grew faster than supply, which is also expected this year and may lead to further leaps in commodity prices. The price of Brent crude broke the psychological barrier of USD 100/barrel for the first time in February, while many other commodities also hit record highs. Lower GDP growth in the final quarter of 2007 is related to lower growth of domestic demand, particularly private consumption; exports have also been slackening. Lower economic growth is largely attributable to the slowdown in domestic demand, notably private consumption, at the end of 2007, which was affected by price hikes, especially in energy and food. At the quarterly level, private consumption even declined for the first time in six years. Investment growth was also lower, and exports moderated as expected. As a result, the contribution of net exports to GDP growth contracted from 0.5 to 0.3 p.p. A moderation in growth was also suggested by the EC sentiment indicators, whose values have been sliding since the summer of 2007, although they remain above the long-term averages. The European Commission projects a stronger deceleration in all of the main member states this year than expected in the autumn and warns of significant downward risks. The slowdown in global economic growth and the stronger euro will negatively affect export growth, which will be even more noticeable in countries with weak competition (France, Italy). The growth of private consumption, expected to be the main engine of growth this year according to autumn forecasts, will continue to be supported by the favourable labour market situation, since the unemployment rate in the euro area dipped to its historically lowest level last year (7.3%). On the other hand, continued energy and food price hikes pose a serious downward risk to its growth. In view of inflation forecasts and the current futures prices, the EC expects the prices of these commodities to peak already in the first quarter and moderate towards the end of the year. Like the ECB, the EC highlights the necessity of curbing inflationary expectations and preventing excessive indirect effects (excessive wage growth). The main risks mentioned by the EC are a stronger deceleration of U.S. GDP growth than expected in the autumn and a continuation of the financial turmoil, which could not only further worsen credit conditions, but also affect housing markets in many European countries that have witnessed even stronger price increases than the United States in recent years. These risks make it fairly possible that economic growth this year will fall short of the baseline scenario figure. Graph 1: Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in the EMU Graph 2: Year-on-year inflation in the EMU, quarterly 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 \A — Actual GDP growth — EC forecast (Nov. 07) •• EC forecast (Feb. 08) Q1 Q2 2007 Q3 Q4 Q1 2008 Q2 Q3 Q4 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 "Actual inflation (Nov. 07) EC fore Sources of data: Eurostat; EC Autumn Forecast (November, 2007); EC Interim Forecast (February, 2008). Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Sources of data: Eurostat; EC Autumn Forecast (November, 2007); EC Interim Forecast (February, 2008). Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Price Trends and Policy Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 2/2008 p. 5 2006 2007 Price indices XII 2007/ O (I 07-XII 07)/ I 2008/ I 2008/ O (II 07-I 08)/ XII 2006 O (I 06-XII 06) XII 2007 I 2007 O (II 06-I 07) Consumer prices (CPI) 105.6 103.6 100.1 106.4 103.9 Goods 106.0 103.2 99.8 107.2 103.6 Fuel and energy 109.8 103.1 102.7 115.0 104.3 Other 105.2 103.2 99.2 105.5 103.4 Services 104.8 104.5 100.6 104.7 104.5 Consumer prices (HICP) 105.7 103.8 100.1 106.4 104.1 Administered prices1 107.2 102.6 101.3 111.9 102.5 Energy 109.6 102.7 102.0 117.7 103.2 Other 101.5 102.4 100.0 100.3 101.3 Core inflation: - trimmean 103.2 102.3 100.3 104.2 102.5 - excluding food & energy 104.0 102.7 99.6 104.2 103.2 Consumer prices in the EMU 103.1 102.1 Producer prices of domestic manufacturers: - domestic market 106.3 105.4 100.8 106.5 105.6 - EMU 100.9 105.0 100.6 100.8 104.5 Sources of data: CPI, HICP, IPI: SORS; administered prices and core inflation: IMAD estimate; MUICP in the EU: Eurostat (provisional data) and IMAD recalculation. Note: figures are not directly comparable between years due to the annual changes of the administered prices index. Consumer prices increased again in January. They were 0.1% higher than in December 2007, which is unusual for January, when prices normally fall. At the year-on-year level, inflation leapt from 5.6% in December to 6.4%, which was partly caused by the base effect. The main factors of inflation remain the same as in the previous year. In addition to the seasonal increase in fresh food prices, there was also a rebound in the prices of processed food, which have over the last few months contributed to higher core inflation, i.e. inflation excluding the effect of energy prices and the prices of fresh fruit and vegetables, which are very volatile. Food prices continued to increase in January. The overall increase in food prices was 2.7%, contributing 0.5 p.p. to inflation. The prices of milk, dairy products and eggs surged by 9.7% from December, while the prices of oil and fats jumped by a further 5.5%, despite the high increase in December (7.8%). Only bread and meat prices recorded a slight decrease. In the last 12 months, food prices rose by 14.9%. In January, this increase accounted for almost 40% of the total year-on-year consumer price increase. January also saw higher prices of energy and hotel accommodation. In addition to the prices of liquid fuels for transport and heating, the prices of household electricity, gas and district heating also increased in January. The prices of gas and district heating are determined by way of a model which takes into account, among other things, the past dynamics of oil prices on global markets. This means that we can expect these prices to rise further in the coming months. Also expected was the January increase in electricity prices, announced in November. According to SORS, the price of electricity increased by 6% and contributed close to 0.2 p.p. to inflation. The growth of energy prices is also pushing up the overall increase of prices that are under various regimes of regulation. In the past twelve months, these prices increased by almost 12%, mainly due to the price increase in liquid fuels for transport and heating (up 17.7%). Apart from energy prices, January saw a significant increase in the prices of hotel accommodation. The prices of hotel stays increased by 8.4%, which is linked to the increase in overnight stays. The prices of clothing and footwear posted a seasonal decrease in January. Sales of winter collections translated into an 11.3% decrease in these prices, which reduced inflation by 0.9 p.p. In the last 12 months, these prices increased by 2.9%. Consumers perceived price trends in the last 12 months as the worst since the survey has been carried out. That current inflation is perceived as very high appears to be largely the result of rapid food price growth, which accelerated the most among consumer prices over the past year (see graph). Graph: Inflation and inflation expectations ■Annual increase in consumer prices -Inflation expectations (right axis) -Perceived inflation (rightaxis) Note: Inflation expectations are defined as the sum of percentages of the answers of c interviewed respondents who believed that in ■ji the next 12 months prices would increase 2 either at the current rate or faster than the o "j= current rate (weighted by the year-on-year growth rate of consumer prices). u w Perceived inflation is defined as the sum of the percentage of the answers of interviewed respondents who estimated that in the past 12 months prices increased slightly, moderately or significantly (weighted by the year-on-year growth rate of consumer prices). Sources of data: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 7 7 6 5 4 % 3 3 2 2 0 Money Market - Household Savings Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 2/2008 p. 6 Household savings in banks and in mutual funds managed by domestic administrators EUR m, nominal Nominal growth rates, in % 31. XII 2006* 31. XII 2007 31. XII 2007/ 30. XI 2007 31. XII 2007/ 31. XII 2006* 31. XII 2006/ 31. XII 2005* Total savings in banks 11,451.3 12,541.8 4.9 9.5 7.7 Domestic currency savings 7,181.3 12,164.2 5.1 N/A N/A Overnight deposits1 3,730.9 5,244.4 6.2 N/A N/A Short-term deposits 2,558.1 4,941.7 5.2 N/A N/A Long-term deposits 677.2 1,246.0 1.3 N/A N/A Deposits redeemable at notice 215.0 732.1 4.5 N/A N/A Foreign currency savings 4,270.0 377.6 -1.1 N/A N/A Overnight deposits1 1,794.3 143.4 -4.3 N/A N/A Short-term deposits 1,877.1 170.7 1.9 N/A N/A Long-term deposits 474.4 40.0 -3.7 N/A N/A Deposits redeemable at notice 124.2 23.5 1.3 N/A N/A Mutual funds 1,967.3 2,924.3 4.1 48.6 38.5 Source of data: Monthly Bulletin of the BS, SMA (Securities Market Agency); calculations by IMAD. Notes: demand deposits; *due to the transfer of euro loans to domestic currency loans, data from previous years are not comparable with data for 2007, and calculations of growth rates are therefore meaningless. As expected, the volume of household bank savings surged in December due to 13th month payments and the repayment of overpaid amounts related to the privatisation of Slovenia's second-largest bank. The monthly net flows amounted to EUR 591.1 m and were at the level of net flows in the months prior to the first euro launch in 2001 (the figures are not fully comparable due to different methodologies). Overnight deposits recorded approximately one half of net inflows, whereas a large part of the second half was deposited in short-term deposits. The growth in the volume of household bank savings picked up in 2007 despite the substantial increases in alternative types of savings. The higher growth rates may reflect stronger growth of net wages and progressive raising of deposit interest rates. The growth of net wages was higher in groups with a greater propensity to save and was the result of lower progressivity in the new personal income tax legislation. The raising of interest rates in the first half of the year was prompted by the increases of the ECB's key interest rate, which rose by 50 basis points, while deposit interest rates were on average 40 basis points higher. The subsequent increases in domestic deposit interest (by 54 basis points on average) were also linked to the tightening conditions on interbank markets and the financial turmoil. The net flows of household deposits amounted to EUR 1,090.5 m last year, a good third more than in 2006. Time deposits began to rebound last year, whereas overnight deposits even declined after the high growth rates seen in previous years. More than half of the 20.7% increase in time deposits can be attributed to short-term deposits. Higher interest-bearing deposits redeemable at notice were another important contributor to growth - while they accounted for a mere tenth of all deposits, they were higher than at the end of 2006 by a factor of 1.2. Overnight deposits fell by 2.5%, which is attributable to the raising of interest rates and transfer of savings to time deposits. The December net inflows into domestic mutual funds were at their highest level on record, EUR 65.4. Particularly the net inflows into mixed mutual funds recorded a significant divergence from the annual average, topping it by a factor of 1.7 with a value of EUR 18.7 m, which accounted for almost 30% of total monthly net inflows. This may be related to the fact that part of the overpaid funds for the purchase of bank shares returned to less risky funds due to the financial crisis; in addition, fund managers strongly increased the trading of mutual funds, and even some savers who prefer safer investments opted for such investment, largely investing in bank deposits. Annual net inflows into mutual funds also reached record highs. With EUR 469.7 m, they exceeded the 2006 figure by a factor of 2.9, and the 2004 value, the highest figure until last year, by more than one third. Stock mutual funds recorded over 80% of total net flows and were also very profitable last year. However, their yields began to slip in the final quarter, following the onset of the international financial crisis and the related negative developments on capital markets. The volume of assets managed by domestic mutual funds was almost 50% higher than at the end of 2006, and accounted for as much as 23.3% of household bank deposits, 6.1 p.p. more than the year before. Graph: Household bank deposits and assets in domestic-managed mutual funds (end of year) 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 I Mutual funds Deposits 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Source of data: BS, Securities Market Agency; calculations by IMAD. 2007 Money Market - Loans Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 2/2008 p. 7 Domestic bank loans Nominal amounts, in EUR m Nominal loan growth, in % 31. XII 2006* 31. XII 2007 31. XII 2007/ 30. XI 2007 31. XII 2007/ 31. XII 2006* 31. XII 2006/ 31. XII 2005 Loans total 20,193.3 26,745.2 0.9 32.4 25.2 Domestic currency loans 7,457.5 24,826.5 0.6 N/A N/A Enterprises and NFI 4,066.8 18,512.6 1.0 N/A N/A Households 2,896.4 5,785.3 -0.8 N/A N/A Government 494.3 528.6 4.1 N/A N/A Foreign currency loans 12,735.8 1,918.7 4.2 N/A N/A Enterprises and NFI 10,091.3 869.1 4.7 N/A N/A Households 2,484.3 1,036.2 4.1 N/A N/A Government 160.1 13.4 -11.4 N/A N/A Household loans by purpose 5,380.7 6,821.5 -0.1 26.8 25.6 Consumer credits 2,286.6 2,742.6 -1.9 19.9 16.2 Lending for house purchase 1,955.8 2,671.1 1.8 36.6 43.0 Other lending 1,138.3 1,407.9 0.0 23.7 20.3 Source of data: BS Bulletin, calculations by IMAD. Notes: NFI - non-monetary financial institutions; *due to the transfer of euro loans to domestic currency loans, data from previous years are not comparable with data for 2007, and calculations of growth rates are therefore meaningless. The lending activity of domestic banks eased off considerably in December. The monthly growth of loans was below one percent for the first time since June 2005. The growth of the volume of corporate loans contracted, and households even recorded net repayment of loans. This development is probably linked to extensive repayment of loans that were taken out the month before to finance purchases of securities. The growth of bank loans to non-banking sectors rebounded in 2007. This largely reflected a significant increase in borrowing by enterprises and NFI. Given the favourable economic situation and good borrowing terms, the volume of their loans surged by 36.9% (2006: 26.8%). The growth of household loans edged up by just over one percentage point. The net borrowing of domestic nonbanking sectors was at its highest level thus far at EUR 6,551.9 m, up 61.3% from 2006. Enterprises and NFI accounted for almost 80% of the total net borrowing by domestic non-banking sectors. They recorded net borrowing from domestic banks in an amount of EUR 5,223.6 m, almost three-quarters more than in 2006. They largely took out euro loans (approximately 90% of total net flows). A breakdown by purpose shows the largest increase in loans for other purposes, whose net flows topped the 2006 figure by a factor of 2.7, although their share was below 10%. Working capital loans made the largest contribution to growth. Their net flows 2.2 times higher than in 2006 and accounted for approximately 60% of total net flows. The robust growth appears to be related to last year's stronger production activity (see p. 11). Investment loans also posted sound growth, going up by more than one third. Corporate borrowing abroad is becoming an increasingly less important factor of corporate financing. In 2006, this type of borrowing accounted for nearly 20% of total net corporate borrowing. Last year, this share decreased to one tenth. Firms posted net borrowing in an amount of EUR 449.7 m, down almost 40% less than in 2006. On the other hand, banks' borrowing abroad rebounded, since stronger growth of savings did not suffice by far for a normal financing of the bank loan expansion. Banks posted net borrowing in an amount of EUR 3,354.5 m, topping the 2006 figure by a factor of 2.3. Long-term loans predominated in the first half of 2007. However, due to the international financial turmoil and consequently the lower confidence on the interbank market, short-term loans took over in the second half of the year. Net household borrowing increased by close to one third last year. Housing loans accounted for almost half of household loans total net flows (EUR 1,440.8 m); although the growth of their volume is gradually easing, this is largely linked to the higher base effect. At the end of the year, housing loans represented nearly 40% of total household loans, whereas the EMU average topped 70%. In 2007, the growth of loans in the EMU picked up by approximately 1.5 percentage points to total 11.1%. As in Slovenia, the borrowing of enterprises and NFI likewise increased in other member states; the volume of these loans climbed by 15.1% (in 2006 by 13.0%). Meanwhile, the increase in the volume of household loans fell by more than one quarter, to 5.8%. Although the growth of loans in Slovenia was appreciably higher, a comparison between the volume of loans and GDP still suggests a fairly large development gap, since the volume of domestic bank loans to the non-banking sectors reached 80.6% of the estimated GDP value at the end of the year, compared with 125.5% in the EMU. Graph: Share of loans relative to GDP 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Trrrrrr? ■///////.■■ 77777777* □ EMU □Slovenia 2002 2003 2004 Sources of data: BS, ECB, SORS 2005 2006 Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. 2007 estimate Labour Market Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 2/2008 p. 8 Selected labour market indicators Thousands of people Growth, in % I-XII 2006 I-XII 2007 XII 2006 XII 2007 XII 2007/ XI 2007 I-XII 2007/ I-XII 2006 $ 2006/ $ 2005 Registered labour force (A=B+C) 910.7 925.3 911.3 932.8 -0.3 1.6 0.6 Persons in formal employment' 824.8 854.0 833.0 864.4 -0.4 3.5 1.4 in enterprises and organisations 675.1 696.1 681.7 705.9 -0.3 3.1 1.3 by those self-employed 66.5 69.9 67.5 70.8 -1.7 5.1 1.7 self-employed and farmers 83.3 87.9 83.8 87.7 -0.1 5.6 2.1 Registered unemployed 85.8 71.3 78.3 68.4 0.1 -16.9 -6.6 women 47.0 39.1 42.6 36.7 -1.1 -16.7 -4.9 aged over 40 39.7 37.1 37.7 36.3 1.0 -6.5 -0.9 unemployed more than 1 year 41.9 36.5 39.7 34.7 -0.8 -12.8 -3.6 Rate of reg. unemployment (C/A), in % 9.4 7.7 8.6 7.3 - - - male 8.9 6.2 7.1 6.1 - - - female 12.0 9.6 10.5 8.9 - - - Job vacancies 19.0 20.2 15.9 14.2 7.9 6.6 12.3 for a fixed term, in % 75.3 76.5 76.4 69.8 - - - Number of persons hired 13.0 13.3 9.1 9.7 2.4 2.6 13.8 lower education 3.9 4.1 2.6 2.6 5.4 5.2 19.4 secondary education 7.1 7.2 5.2 5.6 1.3 1.7 13.8 tertiary education 2.0 2.0 1.3 1.5 0.3 1.1 4.3 Sources of data: SORS, ESS, calculations by IMAD. Note: 'persons in employment according to administrative sources. Owing to seasonal factors, formal employment declined in December 2007 and unemployment increased in January 2008; according to seasonally adjusted data, the number of employed continued to increase. The number of employed persons decreased by 0.4% (+0.3% if seasonally adjusted) from November 2007 (but increased by 3.8% from December 2006). It contracted in almost all industries, particularly in construction and manufacturing. The December decline in employment is a common seasonal phenomenon, which also contributes to the increase in registered unemployment in January. It is linked to layoffs of temporary workers and the fact that most public works programmes end in December. The decline in formal employment due to the almost unchanged number of unemployed in December did not affect the unemployment rate, which remained unchanged at 7.3%. The gender gap is closing, yet the female unemployment rate, which has been decreasing slowly, remains much higher than the male unemployment rate. The number of registered unemployed increased to 69,238 in January for seasonal reasons. More people than in December but fewer than in January 2007 registered as unemployed, but the same holds for the number of deregistered unemployed. A total of 3,299 persons registered as unemployed after losing temporary jobs (385 fewer than in January 2007), while 2,520 persons signed up because they lost work for other reasons (1,403 fewer than in January 2007). The number of first-time job seekers was within the usual seasonal range (928). On the other hand, 4,127 unemployed found work (1,021 fewer than in January 2007), and the number of unemployed dropped by a further 1,793 in January for other reasons (252 fewer than last year). Survey-based employment likewise declined in the final quarter of 2007, yet it remained considerably higher than a year ago. The decline by 23,000 persons or 2.3% from the third quarter was largely seasonal, whereas survey-based employment remained 27,000 persons or 2.8% higher than in the final quarter of 2007. The number of employees surged in 2007, in large part due to additional hiring of foreign workers. The average number of formally employed persons in 2007 (853,999) was 3.5% higher than in 2006, whereas the average number of employed persons according to the labour force survey (985,000 according to our calculations) was 2.5% higher than the year before. The average number of work permits for foreigners increased by 24.7%, accounting for approximately two fifths of the increase in formal employment. As in the previous two years, formal employment rose especially in construction and business services in 2007. Compared with 2006, it increased by 11.3% in construction and by 8.3% in business services, while the combined increase in these two branches accounted for almost half of the total increase in formal employment in 2007. Employment also increased in most other industries, except in fishing, mining and public administration, where it declined. The number of vacancies and persons hired rebounded considerably in January after the seasonal decline in December. The number of the former increased to 22,356, and of the latter to 14,485, which is 11.7% and 7.5% more than in January 2006, respectively. Graph: Formal employment by industry, 2000-2007 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 > ^-o- __——" » ""'JZ N^ — —o— 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Source of data: SORS. 2005 2006 2007 ■ Agriculture ■ Industry ■ Construction Predominantly market activities ■ Education, health care ■ Public administration B C D E F Labour Market - Unemployment in 2007 Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 2/2008 p. 9 Flows in registered unemployment Thousands Growth in % 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2004 2005 2006 2007 A No. at the beginning of the year 99.6 96.0 90.7 92.6 78.3 -3.6 -5.5 2.0 -15.4 Total inflows during the year 94.2 95.6 94.4 90.2 73.5 1.4 -1.2 -4.4 -18.5 - first-time job-seekers 25.4 26.0 21.7 18.6 1 4.7 2.2 -16.6 -14.1 -20.7 B - loss of fixed-term employment 32.2 33.1 34.5 33.4 28.3 2.6 4.4 -3.4 -15.3 - other layoffs 36.6 36.5 32.7 30.4 24.3 -0.2 -10.5 -6.9 -20.2 - transfer from other registers 0.0 0.0 5.6 7.9 6.3 - - 41.2 -20.0 C Total A + B 193.9 191.6 185.1 182.8 151.8 -1.2 -3.4 -1.3 -16.9 Total outflows during the year 97.9 100.8 92.6 104.5 87.7 3.0 -8.2 12.9 -20.0 - found work 50.5 54.3 53.9 57.4 49.1 7.4 -0.7 6.6 -14.5 as a % of C 26.1 28.3 29.1 31.4 32.3 - - - - - struck off for other reasons 39.6 44.3 35.2 42.2 31.7 11.8 -20.5 19.7 -24.7 as a % of C 20.4 23.1 19.0 23.1 20.9 - - - - D of which: voluntary sign-offs 5.6 4.9 4.6 5.9 5.2 -12.0 -6.5 29.5 -12.4 education 7.2 7.3 5.1 4.0 4.6 0.6 -29.3 -22.1 16.4 retirement 5.0 4.3 3.3 4.0 4.5 -12.5 -22.9 20.8 11.2 other transitions to inactivity 1.9 4.7 4.2 4.4 3.8 149.7 -11.8 6.7 -15.2 neglect of duties 15.8 19.2 15.0 18.8 11.7 21.7 -21.6 25.1 -37.8 other 4.2 3.9 3.0 5.0 2.0 -7.4 -23.7 65.9 -60.8 - transfer to other registers 7.7 2.3 3.5 4.9 2.7 -70.6 52.4 41.2 -44.9 E No. at the end of the year (E=C-D) 96.0 90.7 92.6 78.3 68.3 -5.5 2.0 -15.4 -12.8 Source of data: ESS; calculations by IMAD. The number of unemployed and unemployment rates dropped sharply in 2007. In December, 68,411 persons were registered as unemployed at the Employment Service of Slovenia, down 12.8% from December 2006. On average, 71,336 persons were registered as unemployed in 2007, 16.9% fewer than in 2006. The registered unemployment rate, which was 9.4% in 2006 on average and 8.6% in December 2006, declined to 7.7% and 7.3%, respectively, last year. Meanwhile, the average number of survey unemployed declined from 61,000 in 2006 to 51,000 in 2007. According to our calculations, the survey unemployment rate, which increased to 4.7% in the fourth quarter of 2007, fell from 6.0% in 2006 to 4.9% in 2007. The number of unemployed declined in 2007, largely due to smaller inflows to unemployment. In 2007 a total of 14,744 first-time job seekers and 52,521 persons who lost work registered as unemployed, which is 20.7 % and 17.6 %, respectively, fewer than in 2006. Among the latter, 53.8% lost their fixed-term jobs, 11.8% quit their jobs voluntarily (these two shares are still rising), 16.2% were laid off for business reasons, and 3.7% lost work due to bankruptcy, while the rest (14.4%) were left jobless for other reasons. Meanwhile, 49,117 unemployed persons (14.5% fewer than in 2006) found work; even so, the ratio between the number of unemployed who found work and the number of persons who lost work improved somewhat in 2007 (to 93.5%) but still remained worse than in the period 1998-2000. Furthermore, fewer persons than in 2006 were struck off the unemployment register for various reasons other than employment and as a result of being transferred to other records (based on the amended Employment and Insurance against Unemployment Act from 2002; see table). Among the removals from the regular register, the number of those based on neglect of duties of unemployed persons dropped significantly. There were 11,701 such cases in 2007; 9,504 thereof were struck off because they were unavailable for work. On the other hand, the number of persons struck off due to schooling or retirement increased. Although the total number of registered unemployed fell substantially, the smallest decrease was recorded in the number of highly educated unemployed, whereas the number of those aged over 50 even increased. In 2007, there were on average 7,191 of the former (4.9% fewer than in 2006 and 52.7% more than in 2001, when their number was the lowest since 1991) and 22,219 of the latter (2.1% more than in 2006). The share of women among unemployed increased again in 2007 (to 54.9%; in 2006: 54.8%), as did the share of long-term unemployed - for the third consecutive year, although their number is decreasing. The number and share of unemployed persons with secondary education continued to decline, as did the number of unemployed with lower education. Graph: Survey and registered unemployment rates, 1995-2007 % 17 -15 -13 -11 9 7 5 3 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 —•— Survey - total -Registered - total --------Survey - men —*— Registered - men —*-Survey - women —°-Registered - women Source of data: SORS. Earnings Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 2/2008 p. 10 Gross wage per employee, growth index Wages in In nominal terms In real terms1 EUR XII 07/ XII 07/ I-XII 07/ XII 07/ XII 07/ I-XII 07/ XII 2007 XI 07 XII 06 I-XII 06 XI 07 XII 06 I-XII 06 Gross wage per employee, total 1,342.80 90.0 106.5 105.9 89.6 100.9 102.2 Private sector (activities A-K) 1,279.49 87.2 107.6 106.9 86.8 101.9 103.2 A Agriculture 1,119.75 84.7 109.5 108.3 84.3 103.7 104.5 B Fisheries 1,038.81 77.7 110.0 107.6 77.4 104.2 103.8 C Mining and quarrying 1,777.00 83.1 121.6 107.0 82.8 115.2 103.3 D Manufacturing 1,164.88 87.2 108.0 106.8 86.9 102.3 103.1 E Electricity, gas, and water supply 1,850.19 72.5 109.6 106.3 72.2 103.8 102.6 F Construction 1,079.79 88.7 105.6 106.5 88.4 100.0 102.8 G Distributive trades 1,231.46 92.4 106.7 107.6 92.1 101.0 103.8 H Hotels and restaurants 1,011.22 97.1 10.80 105.9 96.7 102.3 102.2 I Transport, storage & communications 1,436.05 88.3 109.1 105.6 87.9 103.4 102.0 J Financial intermediation 2,054.40 68.1 101.0 107.2 67.9 95.7 103.5 K Real estate, renting, business services 1,478.61 93.4 109.6 107.2 93.0 103.8 103.5 Public services (activities L-O) 1,530.53 97.9 104.1 104.1 97.5 98.6 100.5 L Public administration 1,564.91 99.8 107.1 105.1 99.4 101.4 101.5 M Education 1,574.61 99.4 102.2 104.0 99.0 96.8 100.3 N Health and social work 1,449.81 99.8 103.0 103.2 99.4 97.5 99.6 O Other social and personal services 1,504.46 86.8 105.3 103.9 86.5 99.7 100.2 Source of data: SORS and IMAD calculations for the private sector and public services. Note: deflated by the consumer price index. In December, the gross wage per employee decreased by 10% in nominal terms and by 10.4 % in real terms from November (consumer prices increased by 0.4%). This was the result of the high increase in gross earnings in November, the typically smaller December volume of extraordinary payments, and the two working days shorter month. These factors particularly affected the wage dynamics in the private sector, where the gross wage per employee fell by 12.8% in nominal and 13.2% in real terms. In 2002-2007, the average amount of November and December extraordinary payments was 50% of the gross wage (with minor oscillations) of recipients. The number of their recipients increased moderately over the entire period. The only exception was last year, when the number of recipients increased considerably and reached 30% of all employees (in 2006 close to 25%, in 2002 18.7%). This share is even higher in 2007, if we include the employees who received extraordinary payments already in October (overall, approximately 33% of all employees). The higher share of these recipients at the end of the year, which varied considerably across industries, is causing difficulties in negotiations on wage adjustment to cover the difference between actual and projected inflation in 2007. Thus, the bargaining of social partners regarding the wage policy agreement in the private sector is still underway to determine an additional wage adjustment because of higher inflation in 2007 and wage policy for this and next year. In the group of industry and construction (C, D, E, F), the gross wage per employee fell by a nominal 14.7%. All workers in the mining industry (C) and in electricity, gas and water supply (E) received the November/December year-end payments for 2007 (in 2006, 58% and 88%, respectively). In manufacturing (D), this percentage was much lower (40%), albeit higher than the year before (35%). The lowest percentage of workers (approximately 23%) who received this payments was recorded in the construction industry (F; in 2006 approx. 19%). A somewhat smaller decrease in gross wages (8.5%) was recorded in production services (G, H, I). The highest share of workers who received extraordinary payments was recorded in transport, storage and communications (I; approx. 68%; in 2006 41%), while the shares of recipients and their increases were smaller in distributive trades (G; 2007: 20%, 2006: 15%) and in hotels and restaurants (H; 23% and 19%). In the group of business services (J, K), the gross wage per employee witnessed the sharpest drop of 16.4% in December, after the largest increase in November. In financial intermediation (J), almost all employees received the November/December payments (2007: 85%, 2006: 92%), whereas the percentage was much lower in real estate services (K; 31% and 24%, respectively). The gross wage in public services (L to O) declined by 2.1% in December. There are no extra payments in this sector. The only exception is other community, social and personal services (O), where approximately 40% of employees received these payments at the end of the year (2006: 34%). In 2007 the gross wage per employee increased by 5.9% in nominal and by 2.2% in real terms. In view of the estimated 6.5% nominal and 3.4% real growth of labour productivity (Autumn Forecast 2007), wage dynamics were macroeconomically sustainable. Gross earnings in the private sector increased by 6.9% in nominal and by 3.2% in real terms, while the corresponding increases in public services were 4.1% and 0.5% due to only partial adjustment to inflation. Owing to the effects of amendments to personal income tax regulations, the increase in net earnings was higher - 7.9% in nominal and 4.2% in real terms. Nominal net wages increased by 8.6% in the private and by 6.7% in the public sector. Although the new Personal Income Tax Act reduced the progressivity of the income tax scale, thus lowering the tax burden for all employees, the change was more favourable for employees in higher income brackets. The increase in net wages in the public sector was 2.6 p.p. higher than the increase in gross wages thanks to the better education structure of employees. This difference was smaller in the private sector (1.7 p.p.). Manufacturing Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 2/2008 p. 11 Growth rates, in % Selected economic indicators XII 2007/ XII 2007/ I-XII 2007/ -XII 2006/ XI 2007 XII 2006 I-XII 2006 I-XII 2005 Production value1 -18.4 2.4 8.4 6.5 - highly export-oriented industries2 -21.0 11.3 16.7 8.0 - mainly export-oriented industries3 -20.2 0.0 6.5 8.9 - mainly domestic market-oriented industries4 -8.9 -2.2 2.3 0.8 Average number of employees -0.5 0.5 0.9 -1.7 Labour productivity -18.0 1.9 7.5 8.3 Level of inventories5 0.0 12.6 8.9 2.1 Turnover5 -18.4 0.5 7.7 5.2 New orders5 -7.8 -1.7 9.7 6.7 Industrial producer prices (domestic market) 0.1 4.9 4.3 2.3 - producer prices/inflation -0.3 -0.7 0.7 -0.2 Source of data: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: Veal growth calculated on the basis of data on production value - SORS' recalculation with the IPI (provisional data); Manufacturing industries (DG, DK, DM) which have, according to data on Slovenian commercial companies from the AJPES, earned over 70% of their average net revenue from sales on foreign markets in the last three years on average; Manufacturing industries (DB, DC, DD, DH, DJ, DL, DN) which have earned 50-70% of their average net revenue from sales on foreign markets in the last three years on average; "manufacturing industries (DA, DE, DF, DI) which have earned less than 50% of their average net revenue from sales on foreign markets _in the last three years; 5real growth._ The growth of production in manufacturing decelerated further in December. According to SORS' provisional seasonally adjusted data, industrial production in manufacturing contracted by 0.7% in comparison with November. At the year-on-year level, production increased by a modest 2.4%, which may be linked to the distribution of Christmas holidays, which was more favourable for collective holidays than in 2006. In 2007 on average, the production growth of Slovenian manufacturing was high - one of the highest in the EU. In 12 months, Slovenian manufacturing firms increased their real production value by 8.4%, the biggest increase in 15 years. The growth of industrial production in the EU-27 was also relatively high in 2007 at 3.8%, but it was nevertheless 0.7 p.p. lower than the year before. Vigorous production activity was recorded mainly in Central European countries (see graph), including Slovenia, which was one of the few countries whose growth even exceeded the high 2006 figures. Thus, Slovenia's production growth last year was more than double the European average. In the first half of 2007, the robust production activity of Slovenian manufacturing was supported by favourable impulses from the international and domestic environment. Foreign demand and accelerated production activity in construction added to the exceptionally high increase in production in the first half of 2007 (9.8%). According to seasonally adjusted data, the capacity utilisation level in this period reached approximately 86%, the highest figure since 1996. Almost all manufacturing sub-industries, particularly those that are closely linked to construction activity, recorded growth rates higher than their long-term averages. The overall slowdown in the second half of the year was softened by vigorous production in the chemical and automotive industries. In the second half of 2007, all manufacturing sub-industries except the chemical industry and the manufacture of transport equipment posted lower growth rates than in the first half of the year. These two industries reached over 25% production growth rates and contributed approximately 68% to the overall production increase in manufacturing in this period (7.1%). The high export orientation of these two branches was reflected in an increase in the difference between revenues from sales on the domestic market (7.1% in the first half, 3.9% in the second half) and on the foreign market (8.5% and 9.0%, respectively). That the deceleration of growth, which started at the end of 2007, has continued is also evidenced by data on business trends. The seasonally adjusted value of the confidence indicator has been gradually moderating from the high levels recorded at the end of 2006 and the beginning of 2007. In February 2008 it declined further by one percentage point. The share of surveyed enterprises expecting an improvement in the business climate was 8 p.p. higher than the share of those expecting a deterioration. This is the lowest recorded value since May 2006. Graph 1: Growth of industrial production in the EU, % Graph 2: Structure of growth in Slovenia, % 20 15 10 □ I-VI 2007/ □ VII-XII 2007/ A I-XII 2007/ I-VI 2006 VII-XII 2006 I-XII 2006 m ro "u >- .ro ro "o 'H C ~ LL _ 'C c ro ro S % i» Ä JS > 13 C ° > — IB O qT 3 O O 3 = (O I Ö 00 00 S 3 I*-ro iS s go tfi m to m Manufacture of transport equipment (DM) Manufacture of transport equipment (DM) O CC Source of data: Eurostat. Note: the graph shows increases adjusted for working days. I-VI 2007 / I-VI 2006 VII-XII 2007 / VII-XII 2006 Sources of data: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 5 0 Construction Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 2/2008 p. 12 Selected construction indicators, real indexes Q4 2007/ Q4 2006 2007/ 2006 2006/ 2005 Value of construction put in place1 102.6 118.5 115.3 Buildings 105.4 115.5 114.0 Residential buildings 114.7 99.1 102.6 Non-residential buildings 103.8 120.2 117.7 Civil engineering 101.1 124.7 116.! Value of the stock of contracts , (nominal) 131.3 131.3 173.5 Value of new contracts1 (nominal) 116.4 97.0 152.3 Number of people employed in construction 112.1 111.3 107.5 Average gross wage per worker employed in construction 101.1 102.8 103.5 Sources of data: SORS, CCIS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: the survey covers all construction firms whose turnover value according to annual accounts for 2005 reached at least EUR 1.45 m and company units engaged in construction employing at least 20 workers, as well as several non-construction firms that perform out construction services; 2end of period; 3deflated by the CPI. Construction activity moderated in the final quarter of 2007 for the second quarter in a row. According to seasonally adjusted data, the value of construction put in place declined by 3.2% from the previous quarter. Activity was at a high level in October, but fell by 4.0% in November and by a further 8.7% in December. In the last quarter, activity contracted in civil engineering (by 9.8%), while increasing in the construction of buildings (by 2.5%). The value of construction put in place in large companies (see note below table) was 3.5% higher in the final quarter of 2007 than in the same period of 2006. After the robust growth in 2006, construction activity posted even higher growth rates in 2007. The value of construction put in place surged by 18.5% over 2006. Activity in civil engineering increased by 24.7% as a result of the construction of transport infrastructure. The construction of buildings grew by 15.5%; within that, non-residential construction was up 20.2%, whereas activity in residential construction decreased by 0.9%. Based on detailed data on issued building permits, the vigorous construction of hotels appears to have continued last year, probably along with the construction of wholesale and retail trade buildings. In interpreting the figure on the value of residential construction put in place we should bear in mind that these figures exclude the activity of smaller firms (see the note under the table), where the construction of buildings is the main activity. Stronger growth was partly linked to favourable weather conditions, especially in the first half of the year. This is corroborated by the business trends regarding the limiting factors in construction. The share of firms that reported bad weather conditions as a limiting factor was much lower in the first half of 2007 than in the previous year. The weather was also more propitious than the year before in the third quarter, but it was less favourable in the fourth quarter, which affected growth in the latter part of the year. The growth in the number of employees increased further last year. In 2007 the number of people employed in the construction sector was 11.3% higher, on average, than in 2006. The number of workers by activity rose particularly in building completion; in the latter part of the year it also increased in general construction. In terms of employee status, higher growth rates were recorded in the number of sole proprietors and their employees. The number of planned homes and the total planned floor area of all buildings continued to increase in the final quarter of 2007. The planned floor area of new buildings and extensions was 9.0% higher than in the same quarter of 2006 (the area for non-residential buildings increased by 23.5%, whereas the area for residential buildings remained roughly the same). In 2007, the total floor area of planned buildings grew by 7.3%; within that, residential floor area surged by 29.0%, whereas non-residential floor are contracted by 13.5%, after the over 50% increase in 2006. Building permits were granted for the construction of 10,422 new homes, 17.3% more than in 2006. Graph: Seasonally adjusted real indexes of the value of construction put in place 180 Q1 Q2 2003 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2004 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2005 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2006 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2007 Q3 Q4 Source of data: SORS. Risk of Poverty and Income Inequality Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 2/2008 p. 15 Risk of poverty and income inequality in Slovenia, 2004-2005 Calculation based on the EU S Conditions urvey on Income and Living EU-SILC) Income excluding income in kind Income including income in kind 2004 2005 2004 2005 Average equalised disposable income - monthly, in EUR 9,535 10,109 9,886 10,371 At-risk-of-poverty rate, in % 12.11 11.71 11.4 11.1 At-risk-of-poverty threshold - monthly, in EUR 440 466 460 480 At-risk-of-poverty threshold for a household consisting of two adults with two children - monthly, in EUR 924 978 965 1,009 At-risk-of-poverty rate before social transfers (old-age and survivor's pensions are included in income), in % 25.8 24.2 24.8 23.2 At-risk-of-poverty rate before all social transfers2, in % 42.2 40.7 40.9 39.3 At-risk-of-poverty rate for men, in % 10.6 10.3 9.6 9.5 At-risk-of-poverty rate for women, in % 13.6 13 13.2 12.6 At-risk-of-poverty rate for children (aged 0-15) 11.9 11.8 11 11.1 At-risk-of-poverty rate for youth (aged 16-24) 10.4 9.1 10 8.9 At-risk-of-poverty rate for employed persons (aged 16-64) 10.4 9.8 9.9 9.3 At-risk-of-poverty rate for the elderly (aged 65+) 20.4 20 19.2 19 Inequality of income distribution - quintile share ratio (80/20) 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 Inequality of income distribution - Gini coefficient, in % 23.8 23.8 23 23 Sources of data: SORS; Social cohesion indicators, Slovenia, 2004 - provisional data, First Release, 9 February 2007, and Social cohesion indicators, Slovenia, 2005, First Release, 17 December 2007. Notes: 1 on the Eurostat website this figure refers to 2005 (2006) because the Eurostat released it on the basis of the year when the EU-SILC 2005 (2006) survey was carried out, even though the figure is calculated on the basis of income for 2004 (2005). Moreover, the calculated at-risk-of-poverty rates for Slovenia for 2004 and 2005 exclude income in kind, although data released for all new member states included income in kind until 2003. 2The figure only takes into account income of individuals less pensions or other social transfers - this is the risk of poverty as it would be if the population did not receive any pensions or other social transfers. According to the latest available data, 11.7% of persons lived below the poverty threshold in 2005, i.e. their equivalised disposable income was less than EUR 466 per month. The comparison of at-risk-of-poverty rates for 2005 and 2004 is methodologically accurate, as the same methodology (EU-SILC) was used for both years. Data show that the risk of poverty declined somewhat, as did the relative at-risk-of-poverty gap. If income in kind is included in the calculation, the risk of poverty was even lower (11.1%). The at-risk-of-poverty rates by gender and age group also decreased somewhat, although the elderly remain at a very high risk of poverty. The female at-risk-of-poverty rate, which did decline slightly, was still almost three p.p. higher than the male rate (see table). Women are also at a higher risk of poverty than men in the EU-25, but the gaps vary greatly across the member states. Social transfers strongly reduce the risk of poverty. If the government did not provide social transfers (social and family benefits), the risk of poverty would double (24.2%). The difference between the at-risk-of-poverty rates before and after social transfers demonstrates the efficiency of social policy measures in this area. If, in addition to social transfers, households had also received no pensions, the at-risk-of-poverty rate in 2005 would have totalled 40.7% -almost 41% of the population would have lived below the poverty threshold. Employment (activity) remains the best protection against the risk of poverty. Data on at-risk-of-poverty rates for different socioeconomic categories show that households without employed members were at the highest risk of poverty in 2005 (37%), particularly those with children (59%). Other categories exposed to a high risk of poverty were single-member households (43%) and lone-parent households (22%), as well as two-parent households with at least three children - large families (15%). Among individuals, inactive persons (17.1%), particularly the unemployed (33%) are likewise under the greatest threat of poverty. Poverty also threatens elderly women (25%) and tenants (22%). In the EU-25, Slovenia numbers among the countries with the lowest at-risk-of-poverty rates. It shares second place with Denmark, Sweden and Slovakia.1 The Netherlands and the Czech Republic share first place with a 10% at-risk-of-poverty rate. A group of four countries were ranked third (Germany, France, Austria and Finland; 13%). The highest at-risk-of-poverty rates were recorded in Latvia (23%), Greece (21%), and Lithuania, Italy and Spain (all 20%). Income inequality remained the lowest in the EU-25 in 2005.1 Slovenia's income inequality, measured by the quintile share ratio, is 1.4 p.p. better than the EU-25 average. Slovenia was thus ranked first, along with Denmark, according to this indicator. Income inequality measured by the Gini coefficient (24%) is also among the lowest in the EU-25, where the average is 30%. The favourable results in these two indicators contrast with data on household consumption, which show that gaps across income deciles are widening. Since households in the bottom quintile spend as much as 43.5% of their income on food and housing (compared with households in the top quintile, which spend only 24% for this purpose), they are also more vulnerable to rising consumer prices (see SEM 12/2007: 21). 1 SORS released data for 2005 as the most recent figure available; however, Eurostat released the same figure for 2006 with a note that data are based in the EU-SILC 2006 survey (although income data in this survey refer to 2005). Thus, all comparisons across the EU-25 countries refer to 2005. The calculation of income excludes income in kind. Meat and Meat Products Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 2/2008 p. 16 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Growth rates, % 2007/06 2007/02 Consumer prices, average growth rates, Slovenia Total (HICP) 7.5 5.6 3.6 2.5 2.5 3.6 19.4 Food and non-alcoholic beverages 7.5 4.6 0.5 -0.8 2.3 7.8 13.5 Meat 4.0 1.8 -0.4 -2.1 1.4 5.5 6.5 Consumer prices, average growth rates, EU-27 Total (HICP) 2.5 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 11.9 Food and non-alcoholic beverages 3.0 2.0 1.8 1.1 2.4 3.5 11.2 Meat 1.2 0.2 2.4 1.8 1.9 2.8 9.3 Producer prices, average growth rates, Slovenia Total agricultural products 0.8 3.3 -1.1 1.3 4.6 8.2 17.0 Animals for slaughter -3.4 -0.6 5.5 2.5 3.1 1.9 13.0 Number of animals on farms of which: cattle, in thousands 473.2 450.2 451.1 452.5 464.0 479.51 0.12 pigs, in thousands 655.7 620.5 534.0 547.4 575.1 542.6 -5.7 -17.2 poultry, in thousands 5,265.7 4,533.7 3,268.0 3,176.9 3,056.7 4,813.9 57.5 -8.6 Meat from slaughter in slaughterhouses of which: beef, in thousand tonnes 40.5 43.1 40.1 37.4 37.9 36.2 -4.5 -10.5 pork, in thousand tonnes 37.1 37.3 34.6 31.7 33.6 33.2 -1.3 -10.5 poultry, in thousand tonnes 51.4 56.1 52.0 53.4 48.1 58.9 22.4 14.6 Meat-processing industry: business results Productivity: VA/employee, in thousand SIT 4,158 4,883 4,531 4,985 4,940 -0.93 18.83 Return on revenues, % -4.06 -1.32 -1.65 -1.40 0.72 Net profit/net loss, accounting period, SIT m -2,851 -1,252 -1,133 -903 443 Export orientation, in % 9.5 11.2 12.2 13.9 12.6 Sources of data: SORS, AJPES, EUROSTAT; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1 changed methodology of data coverage. 2 According to the new data coverage methodology, the increase in 2006/2007 was 0.1%. 3 The calculated growth rates are for 2006/2005 and 2006/2002. The average price increase in the meat group within the consumer price index in 2007 was high. It amounted to 5.5%, which is 2.3 p.p. less than the price increase in food and non-alcoholic beverages, yet 1.9 p.p. more than the overall increase in consumer prices (see table). In the EU-27, the comparable prices of meat increased by just 2.8% on average, which was 0.7 p.p. less than the price increase in food and non-alcoholic beverages and 0.4 p.p. more than the overall consumer price rise. Three member states witnessed even higher meat price increases than Slovenia: Latvia (10.7%), Lithuania and Hungary (both 7.8%). Smaller increases than in Slovenia were recorded (among other countries) in the neighbouring Austria (2.8%) and Italy (3.3%), while prices even decreased in Ireland and the Netherlands (by a respective 6.4% and 0.2%). In Slovenia, the prices of meat began to increase in spring 2007 and continued to grow gradually throughout the year, with the largest hikes in May and June, and September and October. The average increase in prices of animals for slaughter in 2007 was much lower than the increase in the final prices of meat. It amounted to 1.9%, 6.3 p.p. less than the average increase in agricultural prices and 3.6 p.p. less than the increase in final meat prices (see table). Based on preliminary estimates, the increase in prices of animals for slaughter and animal products in Slovenia was also lower than the average increase in the EU-27, but higher than in the neighbouring countries. It totalled 1.6% in Slovenia, 2.4% in the EU, and only 0.3% in Italy and Hungary, while these prices declined by 1.1% in Austria. Some countries recorded notably higher increases, e.g. the Netherlands (7.7%) and Ireland (7.6%). Increases of final prices were fairly consistent with producer price rises in Slovenia, albeit only until the final quarter, when final prices rose more rapidly (see Graph 2). Higher prices of raw materials are not regarded as the main factor of the relatively high increases in final prices on the meat market; the reasons should also be sought in other links of the meat supply chain. In previous issues of the Slovenian Economic Mirror we have already discussed the growing concentration in a segment of Slovenian retail trade as a possible cause of the relatively high food price increases in comparison with the EU. In our estimate, additional upward pressures on the final prices of meat were also present in meat production companies. Their relatively low efficiency makes it harder to curb higher production costs, while the situation on the market seems to permit disproportionate increases in product prices. Within primary production, pig farmers faced considerable difficulties in 2007, while the conditions were more favourable for cattle and particularly poultry breeders. The number of cattle remained at the 2006 level (the table shows the number according to the new data coverage methodology; using this methodology, the increase from the previous year would be minimal). Nevertheless, animal slaughter in slaughterhouses decreased by 4.5%, largely owing to higher exports of animals to Italy and Austria, where demand for Slovenian cattle is considerable, not least because of lower purchase prices. Beef production became less lucrative, as purchase prices increased by a mere 1.2%, while the cost of production (especially fodder) rose substantially. The conditions for pig farming were fairly unfavourable. The number of animals fell by 5.7%, and the volume of meat from slaughter decreased by 1.3%. With the higher cost of animal production, their purchase prices, which were relatively low already in previous years, dropped by 7.2%. However, the final prices of meat did not follow this trend. By contrast, last year was more encouraging for poultry farmers. The number of poultry increased by 22.4% in Meat and Meat Products Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 2/2008 p. 17 2007 over 2006; at the same time, annual slaughter of animals surged by 57.5%. This indicates a high annual production of poultry meat. Purchase prices, which had already increased in the previous years, rose further last year (by 10.4%). These developments largely reflect the relatively high concentration of production and the close links between primary production and meat processing. The poultry industry shows the highest concentration of production among the producers of meat and meat products. The meat processing industry is classified into three categories: meat production excluding poultry (SCA 15.11), poultry meat production (15.12) and production of meat products (15.13). Each of these categories has approximately a one-third share in the value added of the Slovenian meat processing industry (poultry meat production has the highest share, the production of meat products the smallest share). In 2006 there were 70 meat processing companies in Slovenia, only three of which were in the poultry industry. The concentration of production, measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI),1 is thus extremely high in the poultry industry (8,747; the upper limit is 10,000), one of the highest in the food industry. Production in the other two categories is more fragmented, and their HHI index values are at or below the high concentration threshold (1,800). Meat processing firms are gradually improving their business results. In 2006 the industry operated at a profit for the first time in 2002-2006. In the period from 2002 onwards, meat processing firms reduced their losses. In 2006, the industry as a whole first recorded a positive difference between profit and loss in the accounting period. This result is largely attributable to companies in the poultry industry, which were the most profitable throughout the analyzed period (albeit less profitable than the whole manufacturing sector). Firms that produce meat other than poultry operated at a loss again, although their losses almost halved. This industry has posted losses ever since 2002, whereas firms producing meat products recorded a profit in 2006 for the first time since 2002. The share of the meat-processing industry in the value 1 The HHI is computed by adding up the square market shares of all the companies in an industry, where industries are defined as the four-digit SCA code activities. added of the manufacturing sector is declining, and its productivity is relatively low. The share of the meat-processing industry in the structure of the Slovenian manufacturing sector is decreasing. In 2006, the industry generated 1.5% of manufacturing's total value added, which is somewhat less than the EU-27 average (1.9% in 2005 and stable across the years). Slovenian meat processing firms are also less productive than their European counterparts. In 2005 they reached approximately 52% of the European productivity levels (which is just slightly less than the level achieved by Slovenian manufacturing compared with the European average). Looking at neighbouring member states, meat processing firms in Italy and Austria are more productive (our firms reach between 35% and 40% of their productivity), while Hungarian establishments are less productive (reaching less than 80% of the Slovenian level). While the Slovenian meat processing firms have increased their productivity through the years, this improvement has been slower than in the manufacturing sector on average and too slow to catch up with the European meat industry. The export orientation of Slovenia meat processing firms is gradually rising, yet it remains low on balance (see table). While firms producing meat other than poultry (15.11) and meat products (15.13) generate less than 8% of turnover abroad, poultry firms generated 27.6% of turnover in foreign countries. This share is also substantially higher than the average result for food firms (17.7%), which are predominantly oriented to the domestic market (the average export orientation of manufacturing firms was 62.2%). In the years following Slovenia's accession to the EU, the surplus in total trade in animals, meat and meat products turned into a deficit, and its structure deteriorated as well. In 2006, total exports measured in EUR were 43.3% higher than in 2002, while total imports surged by 99.0% in this period. Slovenia has a positive balance in the groups (i) live animals, which is not favourable in terms of generating value added; and (ii) meat and fish products, where value added is higher, yet the surplus in this group has contracted since 2004. The meat group has recorded the highest values of trade; however, the negative balance has deteriorated significantly since 2003 (see Graph 1). These trends point to the relatively low competitiveness of the Slovenian meat-processing industry. Graph 1: Trade balance Graph 2: Price indices - □2002 Q2005 B2006 115 110 ■ 3 Meat in HICP, EU 27 ! Meat in HICP, Slovenia " Producer prices of animals for slaughter, Slovenia œ 105 100 95 Live animals Meat Products of Meat and fish animal origin products Source of data: SORS; calculations by IMAD. (DCO(D(D©(DtD©(DtOCO(DNSNNNNNNNNNN oooooooooooooooooooooooo c -D ^ ^ en Q. -ft >o c .Q o >. c ^ en a -ft >o Sources of data: SORS, Eurostat. Statistical Appendix Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 2/2008 pp. A 1-17 Gross Domestic Product / I Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 2/2008 p. A 2 2003-2006 constant previous year prices, 2007-2009 constant 2006 prices In SIT m In EUR m Real growth rates in % 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 forecast forecast VALUE ADDED BY ACTIVITIES AND GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT A Agriculture, hunting, forestry 123,669 147,506 139,222 142,730 608 617 627 15.1 -4.4 -3.8 1.0 1.5 1.5 B Fishing 800 875 1,014 996 4 4 4 -7.0 20.4 1.5 0.0 1.0 1.0 C Mining and quarrying 24,674 28,084 30,647 32,719 137 137 137 6.8 0.4 7.5 1.0 0.5 -0.5 D Manufacturing 1,278,086 1,385,784 1,441,576 1,538,233 6,927 7,339 7,732 3.7 3.6 8.5 8.5 6.0 5.3 E Electricity, gas and water supply 140,397 153,187 174,594 187,081 769 780 784 6.8 5.7 5.7 -3.0 1.5 0.5 F Construction 264,015 282,539 316,444 394,283 1,892 2,062 2,073 0.0 4.9 15.2 14.0 9.0 0.5 G Wholesale, retail; certain repairs 563,223 628,070 679,306 753,850 3,408 3,553 3,689 4.2 4.5 6.1 7.5 4.3 3.8 H Hotels and restaurants 108,731 115,150 127,161 137,422 634 665 696 -1.1 1.2 2.9 3.0 5.0 4.5 I Transport, storage and communications 357,817 402,669 442,608 500,231 2,221 2,342 2,495 5.3 6.1 9.4 6.5 5.5 6.5 J Financial intermediation 222,430 263,041 278,993 285,593 1,403 1,486 1,584 17.1 10.5 9.8 7.0 6.0 6.5 K Real estate, renting and business services 807,976 886,022 978,785 1,047,398 4,695 4,895 5,118 2.8 3.5 3.7 4.8 4.3 4.5 L Public administration and defence 300,255 337,436 356,269 375,972 1,633 1,665 1,699 4.8 2.9 2.9 1.2 2.0 2.0 M Education 271,188 297,113 328,786 347,104 1,527 1,554 1,583 2.3 3.3 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 N Health and social work 247,634 275,279 299,347 310,503 1,345 1,385 1 ,427 5.6 5.2 1.6 1.7 3.0 3.0 O Other community and personal services 167,258 183,431 209,598 219,146 1,002 1,042 1,084 2.8 3.3 1.2 3.5 4.0 4.0 P Private households with employed persons 1,007 1,103 1,436 1,114 5 5 5 -8.1 5.9 -3.5 -4.1 0.0 0.0 VALUE ADDED (A+...+P) 4,879,160 5,387,291 5,805,787 6,274,375 28,210 29,530 30,736 4.4 4.0 6.0 5.9 4.7 4.1 Taxes on products and services 751,700 828,100 883,539 919,784 4,143 4,319 4,485 4.2 4.7 3.9 4.9 4.3 3.8 Less: subsidies on products and services 23,598 29,272 31,323 38,790 140 144 1 47 -2.0 -0.4 10.0 1.0 3.0 2.0 GDP 5,607,262 6,186,119 6,658,003 7,155,369 32,213 33,706 35,073 4.4 4.1 5.7 5.8 4.6 4.1 Source of data: SORS 2003-2006, IMAD's Autumn Forecast 2007. Real growth rates: SORS 2004-2006; IMAD's calculations and Autumn Forecast 2007. Note: a comparison of nominal values is possible under the technical assumption of the SIT/EUR exchange rate = 239.64, which has been used since 2007. Gross Domestic Product / II Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 2/2008 p. A 3 Current prices, in SIT m Current prices, in EUR m Structure in %, current prices, GDP=100 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 forecast forecast SUPPLY AND USE OF GROSS NATIONAL DISPOSABLE INCOME 1. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 5,922,917 6,392,985 6,768,266 7,296,627 33,177 35,953 38,482 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 2. Net primary income with the rest of the world -46,503 -75,128 -58,391 -78,661 -497 -474 -534 -1.2 -0.9 -1.1 -1.5 -1.3 -1.4 3. GROSS NATIONAL INCOME (1+2) 5,876,414 6,317,857 6,709,875 7,217,966 32,680 35,479 37,949 98.8 99.1 98.9 98.5 98.7 98.6 4. Net current transfers with the rest of the world 6,994 -10,555 -34,525 -50,281 -96 -81 -39 -0.2 -0.5 -0.7 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 5. GROSS NATIONAL DISPOSABLE INCOME (3+4) 5,883,408 6,307,302 6,675,350 7,167,684 32,585 35,398 37,909 98.7 98.6 98.2 98.2 98.5 98.5 6. Final consumption expenditure 4,424,637 4,703,677 4,964,645 5,299,860 23,750 25,663 27,302 73.6 73.4 72.6 71.6 71.4 70.9 Private consumption 3,275,936 3,473,290 3,653,249 3,896,317 17,522 18,861 20,045 54.3 54.0 53.4 52.8 52.5 52.1 Government consumption 1,148,701 1,230,387 1,311,395 1,403,543 6,229 6,802 7,257 19.2 19.4 19.2 18.8 18.9 18.9 7. GROSS SAVINGS (5-6) 1,458,771 1,603,625 1,710,706 1,867,824 8,834 9,735 10,607 25.1 25.3 25.6 26.6 27.1 27.6 8. GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION 1,510,498 1,770,142 1,846,356 2,068,981 10,000 10,854 11,378 27.7 27.3 28.4 30.1 30.2 29.6 9. SURPLUS ON THE CURRENT ACCOUNT WITH THE ROW (7-8) -51,727 -166,516 -135,650 -201,156 -1,165 -1,118 -770 -2.6 -2.0 -2.8 -3.5 -3.1 -2.0 Source of data: SORS 2003-2006, BS; IMAD's Autumn Spring Forecast 2007. Note: a comparison of nominal values is possible under the technical assumption of the SIT/EUR exchange rate = 239.64, which has been used since 2007. EXPENDITURE STRUCTURE OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, 2003-2006 constant previous year prices, 2007-2009 constant 2006 prices In SIT m In EUR m Real growth rates, in % GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (3+4+5) 5,607,262 6,186,119 6,658,003 7,155,369 32,213 33,706 35,073 4.4 4.1 5.7 5.8 4.6 4.1 1. Exports of goods and services 3,157,565 3,653,898 4,145,398 4,788,469 23,259 25,660 28,136 12.5 10.1 12.3 13.4 10.3 9.7 2. Imports of goods and services 3,194,810 3,694,754 4,101,467 4,830,821 23,762 26,173 28,333 13.3 6.7 12.2 14.2 10.1 8.2 3. EXTERNAL BALANCE * (1-2) -37,245 -40,856 43,931 -42,352 -502 -514 -197 -0.5* 2.0* 0.0* -0.6* 0.0* 0.9* 4. FINAL CONSUMPTION 4,195,627 4,557,677 4,836,456 5,168,882 22,952 23,826 24,583 3.0 2.8 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.2 Private consumption 3,112,561 3,373,478 3,566,122 3,800,103 16,946 17,624 18,220 3.0 2.7 4.0 4.2 4.0 3.4 Government consumption (individual and collective) 1,083,066 1,184,199 1,270,334 1,368,779 6,006 6,201 6,363 3.1 3.2 4.4 2.6 3.2 2.6 5. GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION 1,448,880 1,669,298 1,777,616 2,028,838 9,763 10,394 10,687 10.5 0.4 9.9 13.1 6.5 2.8 Gross fixed capital formation 1,368,338 1,531,410 1,666,102 1,872,354 9,110 9,679 9,931 7.3 2.5 8.4 14.5 6.2 2.6 Changes in inventories and valuables* 80,542 137,887 111,514 156,484 653 714 756 0.9* -0.5* 0.6* -0.1* 0.2* 0.1* Source of data: Nominal: SORS 2003-2006, BS; IMAD's Autumn Forecast 2007. Real growth rates: SORS 2004-2006, BS; IMAD's Autumn Forecast 2007. Notes: a comparison of nominal values is possible under the technical assumption of the SIT/EUR exchange rate = 239.64, which has been used since 2007; *as contributions to real GDP growth (in percentage points). Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD Industrial Production No. 2/2008 p. A 4 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 QIV QI QII QIII QIV 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION by sectors *, indices, 2000=100; 2007 data are provisional INDUSTRY, total 106.9 112.8 116.5 123.7 132.3 130.6 128.6 133.7 130.2 136.4 139.7 117.6 125.0 121.4 139.5 129.0 135.4 136.7 136.7 118.2 135.8 148.9 142.9 117.5 C Mining and quarrying 104.9 97.6 104.2 115.0 118.9 134.5 113.5 129.9 107.0 125.3 152.6 115.3 94.1 107.6 138.7 133.6 135.2 120.8 92.1 121.4 107.4 132.4 145.0 98.4 D Manufacturing 106.5 111.6 115.6 123.2 133.5 129.3 128.9 135.4 131.9 137.6 138.9 114.8 124.5 121.8 140.5 129.8 137.2 139.2 139.4 118.2 138.2 151.3 144.0 117.6 DA Food, beverages, tobacco 99.6 89.4 88.0 87.9 88.1 95.5 79.8 90.9 89.5 92.1 104.7 92.8 76.1 76.2 87.0 89.6 90.9 92.1 92.4 90.3 85.8 94.1 90.8 91.3 DB Textiles & textile products 71.3 61.7 54.1 52.3 51.9 47.5 56.7 51.6 50.0 49.5 50.2 41.2 55.1 52.4 62.5 52.0 49.8 53.1 54.3 41.2 54.4 58.9 47.0 42.6 DC Leather & leather products 72.7 68.2 72.7 76.5 59.4 77.7 72.8 52.3 59.1 53.3 91.1 51.6 86.0 61.0 71.5 53.2 51.2 52.4 80.8 51.6 45.0 62.9 56.1 40.8 DD Wood & wood products 91.0 94.7 100.7 104.1 116.4 108.4 111.6 124.7 114.3 114.9 119.6 91.0 97.1 110.7 127.1 120.1 129.0 125.1 122.5 103.7 116.6 132.0 118.2 94.6 DE Paper, publishing, printing 1 100.6 101.2 104.8 103.9 106.8 109.5 103.0 106.6 106.7 110.8 113.4 104.8 103.2 93.4 112.3 104.0 110.2 105.7 111.8 106.0 102.4 115.2 112.6 104.5 DF Coke, petrol. prod., nuclear fuel 2 36.3 - - - 21.4 20.9 22.3 18.6 20.1 24.7 21.6 19.9 22.8 21.2 23.0 18.8 18.4 18.6 20.2 18.8 21.2 25.4 27.8 21.0 DG Chem., prod., man-made fibers 128.0 147.5 158.7 179.4 218.2 189.3 201.1 213.9 218.8 238.9 198.6 161.9 209.4 193.6 200.4 206.8 199.2 235.8 241.5 180.7 234.3 272.5 250.0 194.2 DH Rubber & plastic products 103.6 116.5 122.2 130.0 142.4 135.9 135.1 141.2 146.6 146.4 149.7 112.3 127.3 125.5 152.6 131.0 146.7 146.0 145.6 136.8 157.4 166.6 156.8 115.9 DI Non-metal mineral products 101.6 84.6 78.7 83.6 88.1 89.2 78.1 92.9 92.4 88.8 98.1 73.1 71.4 72.5 90.5 85.5 97.8 95.4 96.2 87.9 93.1 101.4 97.2 67.7 DJ Basic metals & fabricated. prod. 112.0 107.8 116.3 129.8 142.8 136.6 143.9 147.1 140.2 140.2 146.1 116.1 142.7 135.4 153.5 142.4 148.2 150.7 146.2 131.1 143.2 150.4 150.9 119.2 DK Machinery & equipment nec. 120.9 138.5 140.9 149.5 164.9 161.7 163.1 166.0 161.4 169.0 173.4 149.2 151.4 154.1 183.8 162.3 168.2 167.6 164.0 140.0 180.2 183.8 181.1 142.2 DL Electrical & optical equipment 122.8 153.0 157.7 181.5 194.7 193.6 186.3 200.4 188.0 203.9 210.0 177.2 173.4 175.4 210.2 185.3 214.2 201.8 192.2 164.8 207.1 226.8 213.7 171.2 DM Transport equipment 111.7 152.7 184.7 177.7 205.1 173.3 195.2 206.4 196.2 222.7 180.3 164.6 179.6 184.6 221.5 184.2 216.6 218.4 230.9 141.5 216.1 240.4 232.3 195.4 DN Manufacturing nec. 102.6 103.4 108.7 107.5 104.1 111.1 105.2 106.3 97.6 107.1 122.2 96.0 96.3 104.4 115.0 103.1 110.4 105.3 105.6 81.6 105.6 115.9 113.6 91.9 E Electricity, gas & water supply 3 111.3 132.9 130.9 129.6 115.1 140.9 126.4 104.2 111.7 118.2 137.5 154.6 142.4 117.5 119.3 108.3 102.4 101.8 115.0 111.2 109.0 116.4 117.8 120.3 NUMBER OF PERSONS IN PAID EMPLOYMENT IN INDUSTRY 4 Total, in 1000 255.1 251.7 247.3 243.3 245.1 244.7 244.6 245.5 244.8 245.6 245.4 244.0 244.1 244.8 245.0 245.2 245.5 245.6 245.1 244.6 244.8 245.9 246.1 244.8 C Mining & quarrying 4.8 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.7 D Manufacturing 238.9 236.1 231.8 227.9 229.9 229.2 229.4 230.2 229.6 230.4 229.9 228.7 228.9 229.6 229.7 230.0 230.2 230.3 229.8 229.3 229.7 230.7 230.9 229.7 E Electricity, gas & water supply 11.4 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.5 11.3 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.6 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.3 CONSTRUCTION 5, real indices of construction put in place, indices 2000=100 Construction 105.7 108.4 111.7 128.8 152.8 169.4 104.0 157.8 173.8 175.4 163.2 157.0 88.7 98.1 125.1 136.2 171.0 166.3 166.1 173.9 181.3 206.8 178.1 143.9 Buildings 104.9 114.6 126.4 144.2 166.6 179.6 123.0 172.7 181.6 188.9 169.9 177.0 107.2 115.3 146.5 150.9 182.7 184.6 184.8 183.0 177.0 195.5 198.8 167.8 Civil engineering 106.4 102.6 98.0 114.5 143.7 160.0 91.5 148.1 168.7 166.5 157.1 138.4 76.6 86.8 111.1 126.5 163.3 154.4 153.8 168.0 184.2 214.3 164.6 128.2 Persons in paid employment in construction 4 99.1 97.5 102.0 109.6 122.0 114.3 114.1 120.3 125.3 128.1 115.2 112.7 112.9 114.4 114.8 118.0 120.4 122.7 124.0 125.2 126.8 128.3 129.1 126.8 Source of data: SORS. Notes: *From February 2004 onwards the industrial production indices have been provisional. For the period up until January 2004 they are calculated according to data on produced quantities of industrial goods. From February 2004 onwards, data on production value have been taken as the basis for the calculation. The value of production is calculated according to the following formula: turnover in the month (x) + value of stocks in the month (x) - value of stocks in the month (x-1).1Enterprises with activity of publishing are excluded; 2data not published because of confidentiality; 3only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. In January 2005, the SORS adopted a new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARiMa model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labor Force Survey. Data for previous years dating back to January 2000 have also been calculated according to the new methodology. 5The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD Production No. 2/2008 p. A 5 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2006 2007 2007 QIV QI QII QIII QIV 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TRANSPORT Passenger-km in transport for hire or reward, in m 1,143 1,065 980 848 850 817 223 209 222 167 219 70 62 76 69 80 73 45 43 79 79 74 67 Passenger-km in rail transport, in m 749 778 764 777 788 - 21 0 196 202 204 - - - - - - - - - - - - - Passenger-km in air transport, in m 794 837 896 1,019 1,044 1,186 200 183 289 459 255 62 56 65 79 88 121 161 1 58 139 107 77 72 Tonne-km in rail transport, in m 3,078 3,274 3,466 3,402 3,373 - 942 918 91 3 865 - - - - - - - - - - - - - Tonne-km in maritime transport, in m 28,578 28,361 37,047 52,513 49,155 46,586 11,494 10,813 13,224 12,050 10,499 4,477 2,949 3,387 4,884 3,967 4,373 4,585 3,676 3,790 3,390 2,628 4,481 Tonne-km in road transport, in m 6,609 7,040 9,007 11,033 12,112 - 3,020 3,103 3,292 3,617 - - - - - - - - - - - - - Urban passenger traffic, in m 103.9 98.4 100.2 97.2 94.0 90.7 27.7 26.3 23.3 14.4 26.7 8.7 8.5 9.1 8.3 7.8 7.2 4.1 3.8 6.6 8.9 9.0 8.8 Airport passengers traffic, in 000 866 922 1,047 1,228 1,339 1,505 282 251 382 535 336 82 78 91 108 1 23 152 184 1 81 169 140 1 02 94 Harbour freight transport, in 000 t 9,305 10,788 12,063 12,625 15,462 15,847 4,158 4,282 3,967 3,406 4,191 1,197 1,323 1,762 1,091 1,383 1,493 1,113 1,167 1,126 1,331 1,422 1,438 Transport of gas, million m3 1,007 1,098 1,097 1,136 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - TOURISM, overnight stays, in 000 Total 7,321 7,503 7,589 7,573 7,722 8,261 1 ,389 1,472 1 ,997 3,327 1,465 472 497 502 568 619 811 1,226 1,325 776 573 441 452 Domestic tourists 3,300 3,327 3,226 3,173 3,233 3,393 620 700 786 1,253 654 177 282 242 208 239 339 503 489 261 228 203 223 Foreign tourists 4,021 4,175 4,363 4,399 4,489 4,868 769 771 1 ,21 1 2,074 811 296 215 261 359 380 472 723 836 515 344 238 229 Health resorts 2,327 2,360 2,417 2,464 2,434 2,618 601 555 627 832 604 175 191 189 205 196 225 277 323 231 224 200 180 Seaside 2,052 2,010 2,002 1,949 1,871 1,929 270 203 524 939 262 47 62 94 139 1 52 233 376 366 197 114 85 63 AGRICULTURE, slaughter in slaughterhouses, in 000 tons Cattle 40.5 43.1 40.1 37.4 37.9 36.2 11.7 8.0 8.6 8.1 11.5 2.6 2.5 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.7 3.5 4.3 3.8 Pigs 37.1 37.3 34.6 31.7 33.6 33.2 8.4 8.2 8.5 7.8 8.7 2.7 2.5 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.8 2.6 3.3 Poultry 51.4 56.0 52.0 53.4 49.2 58.9 12.5 13.9 14.3 15.2 15.6 4.6 4.1 5.2 4.6 4.7 5.0 5.2 5.1 33.8 38.3 41.8 4.8 5.4 5.4 4.8 Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EURO m 101.6 103.3 102.4 103.7 106.7 492.2 33.4 101.3 109.7 120.8 160.3 32.2 31.1 37.9 37.5 38.4 40.7 46.2 53.1 61 FISHING, in tons Catches in marine waters 1459.8 1087.5 815.9 1021.6 736.7 795.3 179.3 174.5 246.0 230.9 143.8 83.4 65.3 25.8 39.6 77.8 128.7 51.1 123.4 56.4 60.6 47.8 35.5 Source of data: SORS. Balance of Payments Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 2/2008 p. A 6 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2006 2007 2006 2007 QIII QIV QI QII QIII 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, in EUR m Current account 247 -196 -720 -561 -857 -261 -512 -242 -242 -366 -197 -261 -30 -157 -55 -114 -129 1 -96 -54 -216 -188 -232 Goods 1 -265 -543 -1,009 -1,026 -1,151 -257 -570 -226 -382 -391 -1 97 -281 -79 -75 -72 -143 -1 61 -78 -92 -100 -199 -1 63 -157 Exports 11,082 11,417 12,933 14,599 17,028 4,168 4,543 4,782 5,005 4,920 1,599 1,365 1,470 1,513 1,798 1,578 1,714 1,712 1,738 1,478 1,704 1,847 1,771 Imports 11,347 11,960 13,942 15,625 18,179 4,425 5,113 5,008 5,386 5,311 1,796 1,645 1,549 1,588 1,870 1,721 1,875 1,791 1,830 1,578 1,903 2,010 1,928 Services 620 540 688 849 866 299 160 204 330 321 28 46 99 35 70 94 112 124 81 125 114 69 25 Exports 2,440 2,465 2,783 3,143 3,449 1,072 855 829 1,013 1,278 267 295 299 234 297 332 332 348 432 451 395 363 266 Imports 1,820 1,925 2,095 2,294 2,584 773 695 626 683 957 239 249 200 199 227 239 220 224 351 326 280 294 241 Income -168 -219 -322 -288 -398 -227 -100 -144 -156 -185 -13 -38 -42 -49 -53 -51 -51 -54 -59 -63 -63 -67 -70 Receipts 490 510 530 648 902 241 242 21 7 271 279 72 94 71 70 75 89 92 91 90 91 98 91 93 Expenditure 657 728 852 936 1,300 468 342 361 427 464 85 132 114 119 128 139 1 43 144 149 155 160 1 59 162 Current transfers 60 26 -76 -97 -173 -75 -2 -75 -34 -111 -1 5 11 -7 -68 0 -14 -30 10 -26 -17 -69 -26 -30 Receipts 500 474 561 738 785 165 237 197 238 220 59 93 51 59 86 75 66 97 71 90 59 73 81 Expenditure 439 449 638 835 958 240 238 272 272 331 74 82 58 128 86 89 95 87 96 107 128 99 111 Capital and financial account 3 46 698 818 1,050 504 424 495 287 215 23 508 -147 340 302 91 -35 231 132 12 72 208 336 Capital account -164 -165 -96 -1 14 -131 -39 -96 22 -12 -35 -1 2 -77 12 20 -10 11 -8 -14 -3 -3 -30 -1 4 Financial account 1 67 211 794 932 1,182 543 519 473 298 251 35 584 -159 320 312 80 -27 245 134 15 102 208 333 Direct investment 1,556 -151 224 -43 -207 136 -154 -121 -3 -103 -194 88 -84 -70 33 -16 -73 86 -91 41 -54 137 -62 Domestic abroad -166 -421 -441 -516 -718 -164 -218 -307 -234 -328 -168 4 -103 -148 -56 -113 -102 -19 -141 -44 -143 23 -145 Foreign in Slovenia 1,722 270 665 473 512 300 64 186 231 225 -26 84 19 78 89 97 29 105 50 85 89 114 83 Portfolio investment -69 -223 -637 -1,466 -1,444 -336 -677 -626 -1,223 350 -1 83 -429 -905 -151 430 -416 -629 -178 234 120 -4 -356 -483 Financial derivatives 0 0 6 -10 -13 -3 2 2 -2 -12 2 4 5 -4 1 0 0 -2 -6 -5 -1 -1 1 1 Other investment 565 849 945 2,639 1,564 63 954 1,163 1,538 -16 324 545 640 669 -145 456 741 341 -134 -133 252 41 9 905 Assets -538 -730 -1,308 -1,459 -1,936 -384 -264 -2,320 -398 -1,389 -23 -324 -712 -794 -814 -818 506 -85 -605 -357 -427 -269 -350 Commercial credits -135 -116 -237 -226 -435 -77 120 -375 -195 29 -57 267 -25 -160 -190 -95 -9 -90 31 151 -154 -229 -23 Loans -174 -223 -281 -340 -733 -87 -297 -351 -439 -419 -75 -172 -18 -75 -258 -45 -203 -191 -215 -144 -60 -120 -125 Currency and deposits -157 -323 -720 -872 -747 -194 -90 -1,613 234 -988 103 -412 -736 -552 -325 -664 71 5 183 -408 -367 -213 75 -202 Other assets -71 -68 -69 -21 -21 -26 3 20 1 -11 6 -7 68 -7 -41 -14 3 13 -13 3 0 5 -1 Liabilities 1,104 1,579 2,252 4,098 3,500 446 1,218 3,483 1,935 1,373 348 869 1,352 1,463 669 1,275 235 426 470 224 678 688 1,254 Commercial credits 95 59 214 291 468 63 282 275 59 -83 117 34 -171 220 227 -17 85 -10 55 -300 162 168 85 Loans 838 1,123 1,671 2,731 2,064 357 467 15 1,546 895 299 210 142 -54 -72 1,021 294 230 220 251 424 206 875 Deposits 1 30 428 335 1,053 998 39 448 3,208 338 567 -69 599 1,406 1,282 521 279 -140 199 188 281 98 328 299 Other liabilities 39 -31 33 23 -30 -1 2 21 -1 6 -7 -6 1 26 -25 16 -6 -9 -5 6 7 -8 -6 -1 4 -4 International reserves 2 -1,885 -264 256 -1 89 1,281 684 394 55 -11 32 86 376 185 -123 -7 55 -65 -1 132 -8 -91 20 -28 Statistical error -250 150 22 -257 -194 -243 88 -254 -45 151 174 -246 176 -183 -247 23 164 -233 -35 42 144 -20 -105 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods 1,542 1,634 1,873 2,058 2,492 622 705 N/A N/A N/A 245 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Intermediate goods 5,245 5,463 6,342 6,990 8,429 2,094 2,203 N/A N/A N/A 81 0 621 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consumer goods 4,175 4,188 4,568 5,349 5,840 1,366 1,589 N/A N/A N/A 532 497 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Import of investment goods 2,072 2,322 2,494 2,624 3,076 746 978 N/A N/A N/A 344 358 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Intermediate goods 6,816 7,079 8,348 9,534 11,064 2,738 2,981 N/A N/A N/A 1 ,072 900 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Consumer goods 2,686 2,838 3,301 3,646 4,172 986 1,183 N/A N/A N/A 409 375 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Sources of data: BS, SORS. Notes: Exports and imports (F.O.B.) include also the adjustment for exports and imports of goods by ITRS and duty-free shops reports; 2 reserve assets of the BS. Monetary Indicators Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 2/2008 p. A 7 2005 2006 2007 2006 2007 December 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 MONETARY SYSTEM - CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, end of the month, in SIT bn; since 1 January 2007 in EUR m Banknotes and coins 217.3 152.8 2,947 214.0 197.6 172.8 2,709 2,684 2,689 2,721 2,737 2,769 2,801 2,787 2,786 2,804 2,818 2,947 Overnight deposits at other MFI 1,491.0 1,694.1 7,057 1,590.4 1,608.0 1,694.6 6,902 6,866 6,867 6,887 7,056 7,194 7,257 7,134 7,152 6,931 6,774 7,057 Overnight deposits of NFI at the BS 3.1 5.0 47 6.0 4.5 5.0 47 37 36 37 40 41 50 57 58 54 42 47 Overnight deposits of other government sector (central government excluded) at the BS 3.3 1.3 6 1.9 1.9 1.3 6 7 5 5 6 7 8 10 9 6 6 6 Total overnight deposits at the BS 6.4 6.4 53 7.9 6.4 6.4 53 43 41 43 47 48 58 67 67 60 48 53 Deposits with agreed maturity at the BS 0.3 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Deposits with agreed maturity at other MFI 1,688.0 1,747.3 8,700 1,728.8 1,744.1 1,746.4 7,379 7,441 7,607 7,514 7,578 7,694 7,967 8,209 8,178 8,449 8,269 8,700 Deposits at redeemable notice 164.9 197.5 1,280 184.6 188.4 197.5 962 918 985 991 1,087 1,133 1,171 1,224 1,277 1,300 1,366 1,280 Debt securities, units/shares of money market funds and repos 9.5 9.2 76 7.5 7.9 8.1 29 32 46 52 52 61 62 66 69 80 81 76 Banknotes and coins and demand deposits 1,713.9 1,853.3 10,058 1,812.3 1,812.0 1,873.7 9,664 9,593 9,597 9,650 9,840 10,011 10,116 9,989 10,005 9,794 9,640 10,058 Banknotes and coins and deposits with maturity of up to two years 3,524.6 3,798.1 20,037 3,725.6 3,744.5 3,817.6 18,005 17,952 18,189 18,156 18,506 18,838 19,254 19,421 19,460 19,543 19,275 20,037 Banknotes and coins and instruments with maturity of up to two years 3,534.2 3,807.2 20,113 3,733.1 3,752.4 3,825.8 18,035 17,984 18,235 18,208 18,557 18,899 19,316 19,487 19,529 19,624 19,355 20,113 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in SIT bn; since 1 January 2007 in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 17.6 16.6 67 16.8 16.8 16.6 69 69 69 68 68 68 68 68 67 67 67 67 Central government (S. 1311) 780.5 776.6 2,332 792.5 787.7 776.6 3,184 3,219 2,944 2,748 2,574 2,465 2,408 2,342 2,345 2,348 2,339 2,332 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 17.8 24.9 155 21.5 21.8 24.9 108 106 107 105 107 107 107 110 111 114 149 155 Households (S. 14, 15) 976.0 1,289.8 6821 1,252.3 1,277.6 1,289.8 5,428 5,488 5,633 5,748 5,892 6,015 6,157 6,323 6,468 6,607 6,830 6,821 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 2,620.9 3,245.5 18108 3,157.9 3,214.5 3,245.5 14,086 14,250 14,660 15,142 15,426 15,788 16,274 16,720 17,004 17,269 17,748 18,108 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 230.9 365.6 2305 325.7 338.3 368.3 1,554 1,563 1,574 1,761 1,747 1,911 2,034 2,083 2,205 2,367 2,396 2,305 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 1,408.2 1,157.1 2,412 1,265.8 1,244.9 1,158.7 3,505 2,770 2,267 2,033 2,257 2,211 2,218 2,439 2,448 2,460 2,580 2,412 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 2,099.2 2,307.3 26596 2,200.9 2,223.7 2,264.6 21,761 21,634 21,726 22,297 23,089 23,558 24,146 24,892 25,310 25,864 26,630 26,596 In foreign currency 2,199.4 3,109.6 1,990 2,992.1 3,048.8 3,109.6 1,048 1,100 1,160 1,248 1,335 1,456 1,560 1,638 1,699 1,789 1,900 1,990 Securities, total 1,791.0 1,442.6 3,547 1,627.3 1,617.7 1,449.5 5,055 4,662 4,299 3,992 3,577 3,475 3,483 3,479 3,573 3,511 3,510 3,547 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in SIT bn; since 1 January 2007 in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 2608.5 2904.1 20,037 2886.7 2892.4 2902.9 17,823 17,912 17,914 18,066 18,367 18,446 18,880 19,299 19,386 19,579 19,558 20,037 Overnight 987.0 1178.1 6,887 1061.9 1074.0 1178.1 6,645 6,598 6,648 6,676 6,849 6,953 7,047 6,881 6,907 6,695 6,573 6,887 With agreed maturity - short-term 1175.5 1252.9 891 2 1361.3 1353.8 1251.2 7,673 7,837 7,639 7,758 7,777 7,592 7,867 8,331 8,247 8,689 8,723 8,912 With agreed maturity - long-term 309.9 291.9 2866 297.2 291.3 292.4 2,486 2,492 2,560 2,569 2,573 2,693 2,728 2,790 2,874 2,820 2,817 2,866 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 136.0 181.2 1 372 166.3 173.3 181.2 1 ,01 9 985 1,067 1,063 1,168 1,208 1,238 1,297 1,358 1,375 1,445 1,372 Deposits in foreign currency, total 1349.9 1454.0 559 1424.7 1449.2 1454.7 634 614 607 597 615 610 605 628 608 589 585 559 Overnight 395.6 552.7 21 8 555.7 576.3 552.7 31 1 293 285 264 280 274 270 278 269 255 260 218 With agreed maturity - short-term 623.7 544.7 248 514.9 519.0 545.5 240 239 237 251 248 249 242 258 248 241 226 248 With agreed maturity - long-term 295.2 318.5 56 316.9 318.3 318.5 64 64 62 60 61 60 61 62 60 60 57 56 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 35.4 38.0 37 37.3 35.7 38.0 19 18 23 22 26 27 32 30 31 33 42 37 Source of data: Bank of Slovenia. Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD Prices No. 2/2008 p. A 8 Indices, 2005 = 100 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2006 2007 2007 2008 QIV QI QII QIII QIV 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 GROWTH IN SELECTED PRICE INDICATORS CPI 94.2 97.6 100.0 102.5 106.2 103.2 103.1 105.8 106.9 108.8 102.9 102.7 103.8 104.9 106.1 106.5 106.6 106.9 107.3 108.0 108.9 109.4 109.5 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 100.3 100.8 100.0 102.3 110.2 103.1 105.3 108.7 110.7 116.1 105.7 104.7 105.5 107.5 109.3 109.2 109.5 109.7 113.0 115.5 115.5 117.3 120.4 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 91.0 96.3 100.0 103.7 110.5 106.2 107.1 108.0 113.6 113.2 106.9 107.0 107.4 107.6 108.1 108.2 113.9 114.0 113.1 113.2 113.1 113.2 113.0 Clothing and footwear 99.3 101.0 100.0 99.5 101.6 105.5 95.4 105.7 97.1 108.1 92.9 93.3 100.1 103.4 106.8 107.0 95.0 94.2 102.3 106.8 109.9 107.7 95.6 Housing, water, electricity, gas 85.4 91.7 100.0 105.3 108.1 103.8 104.2 107.1 109.3 111.7 103.6 103.9 105.1 106.7 107.0 107.7 108.5 110.3 109.1 110.2 112.3 112.5 115.7 Furnishings, household equip. 94.3 96.5 100.0 104.1 108.7 106.2 107.0 108.3 109.0 110.4 106.9 106.7 107.5 108.0 108.2 108.8 108.8 109.1 109.1 109.9 110.5 111.0 111.1 Medical, pharmaceutical products 98.8 100.3 100.0 98.3 99.4 98.3 99.9 99.9 99.1 98.7 99.2 99.7 100.8 100.0 99.7 99.9 100.0 98.7 98.7 98.8 98.8 98.7 98.3 Transport 92.1 97.4 100.0 101.3 101.6 100.3 99.7 102.6 102.1 101.9 99.8 99.3 100.1 101.6 102.9 103.2 102.9 102.2 101.1 100.7 102.5 102.4 102.7 Communications 99.8 100.0 100.0 100.3 100.6 101.5 100.0 99.6 100.9 101.8 101.5 99.3 99.2 99.3 99.7 99.7 100.6 100.8 101.5 101.4 100.8 103.1 102.5 Recreation and culture 94.2 97.7 100.0 102.1 105.8 101.1 102.5 104.3 110.6 105.9 102.3 102.9 102.3 102.0 104.4 106.4 111.0 113.0 107.9 105.5 105.6 106.6 106.5 Education 87.1 93.4 100.0 103.1 105.0 102.9 103.1 104.7 105.7 106.7 103.0 103.1 103.0 103.0 105.6 105.6 105.6 105.6 106.0 106.7 106.7 106.7 106.6 Catering services 91.1 95.8 100.0 104.5 112.1 106.3 109.2 110.8 112.8 115.5 108.9 109.3 109.6 110.3 111.0 111.1 111.8 112.7 113.9 114.4 115.6 116.6 119.0 Miscellaneous goods & services 94.5 98.1 100.0 104.1 107.8 105.9 106.4 107.1 108.2 109.4 106.2 106.5 106.7 106.7 107.2 107.3 107.8 108.3 108.5 108.8 109.6 109.9 110.1 HCPI 94.2 97.6 100.0 102.5 106.4 103.3 103.4 106.2 107.0 109.0 103.1 103.0 104.1 105.3 106.5 106.8 106.7 106.9 107.4 108.2 109.2 109.6 109.7 Producer price indices (domestic market) 93.4 97.4 100.0 102.3 107.8 103.2 105.9 107.4 108.2 109.9 104.3 106.5 106.9 107.1 107.4 107.7 107.8 107.7 108.9 109.6 110.1 110.1 111.0 Intermediate goods 91.4 96.9 100.0 103.5 111.9 104.7 109.1 111.7 112.6 114.3 106.1 110.4 110.7 111.3 111.8 112.1 112.3 112.1 113.5 114.2 114.3 114.4 115.2 Capital goods 94.7 97.0 100.0 100.2 101.5 100.8 101.2 101.1 101.5 102.0 101.4 101.0 101.3 101.4 101.0 100.9 101.6 101.4 101.6 102.1 101.9 101.9 102.4 Consumption goods 95.3 98.1 100.0 101.5 104.4 102.1 103.1 103.6 104.2 106.7 102.8 103.0 103.4 103.2 103.5 104.0 103.8 103.8 105.1 105.8 107.1 107.2 108.2 PRICE CONTROL1 Energy prices 83.3 89.4 100.0 108.0 108.6 105.9 102.6 109.5 110.1 112.4 103.6 100.4 103.7 107.5 110.3 110.7 111.8 109.8 108.5 108.5 114.4 114.3 116.5 Oil products 80.2 86.7 100.0 110.3 109.3 105.7 101.4 110.9 111.3 113.5 102.9 98.4 103.0 107.5 112.3 112.9 113.5 111.0 109.3 108.7 115.9 115.9 117.3 Electricity for households 93.8 98.6 100.0 101.6 - 102.7 101.7 107.1 - - 101.9 101.0 102.4 107.1 107.1 107.1 - - - - - - - Basic utilities 88.6 96.2 100.0 97.4 95.2 87.8 93.8 94.7 97.2 95.1 92.5 94.4 94.4 94.7 94.7 94.7 94.7 101.7 95.2 95.2 95.1 95.1 95.1 Transport & communications 95.2 97.9 100.0 101.5 102.1 101.6 101.9 102.2 102.2 102.2 101.7 101.8 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.2 Other controlled prices 89.8 95.7 100.0 102.6 105.6 103.3 104.9 104.9 106.3 106.4 104.2 105.1 105.3 105.3 104.7 104.7 105.5 107.1 106.4 106.4 106.4 106.4 106.4 Direct control - total 85.5 91.5 100.0 107.0 110.4 106.9 105.6 110.8 112.0 113.2 106.0 104.1 106.6 109.4 111.3 111.7 112.6 112.7 110.7 110.7 114.5 114.4 115.9 Source of data: SORS, calculations and estimates IMAD. Note: 1 the structure of groups varies, data published are not directly comparable to those published previously. The electricity market was liberalized on 1 July 2007. Data from July 2007 onwards are not comparable. Interest Rates and Investment Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 2/2008 p. A 9 End year 2006 2007 2003 I 2004 I 2005 | 2006 | 2007 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits - - 0.47 0.32 0.36 0.28 0.27 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.37 0.42 0.40 0.41 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year - - 3.34 2.96 3.36 2.81 2.84 2.83 2.91 3.01 3.07 3.15 3.26 3.36 3.41 3.61 3.89 3.83 4.04 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans 1-5 year fixed interest rate - 4.18 4.99 4.56 5.8 5.19 4.29 5.16 5.44 5.50 5.35 5.37 5.36 5.79 5.98 6.16 6.45 6.44 6.58 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million 1-5 year fixed interest rate 8.58 5.36 5.23 4.64 5.76 5.04 5.11 5.49 6.53 - - 4.86 5.12 6.49 - 5.76 5.59 - 6.25 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operations | 2.25 2.00 2.02 2.78 3.85 3.25 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.75 3.75 3.75 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 INVESTMENT, outlays, in SIT m, since 2007 thousand EURO Total 610,923 760,662 772,675 824,957 4,700,616 86,544 147,057 283,943 287,486 252,076 387,674 377,167 375,300 483,585 460,832 362,648 377,049 468,963 583,892 Industry total 136,349 184,271 181,466 164,226 1,039,456 16,069 22,452 54,811 66,902 68,461 62,123 71,435 60,840 81,370 81,419 93,484 77,801 168,502 152,308 Energy sector 31,538 39,105 38,701 36,856 273,428 4,832 7,335 11,771 26,320 12,892 9,072 9,797 14,671 13,194 13,996 29,763 27,846 28,806 75,300 Manufacturing 104,811 145,163 142,765 127,370 766,028 11,237 15,117 43,040 40,582 55,568 53,051 61,639 46,169 68,176 67,423 63,721 49,956 139,695 77,008 Construction* 11,350 21,470 129,609 170,369 212,331 14,565 43,112 97,608 68,472 -120,858 13,463 44,591 34,762 11,816 4,168 16,039 11,698 15,242 15,331 Transport and communications* 39,779 54,720 63,689 57,978 1,272,663 9,931 4,165 11,029 32,975 194,924 142,273 120,681 86,677 211,395 185,566 60,813 58,285 56,344 111,701 Trade 67,852 80,272 93,793 82,460 387,157 4,926 6,846 16,599 12,242 25,851 34,770 29,893 32,765 36,881 34,166 45,906 44,707 40,730 32,645 Hotels and restaurants 14,665 14,206 15,641 12,356 85,235 722 1,483 7,841 5,197 7,092 5,981 2,300 13,813 10,544 3,008 6,131 5,558 5,909 11,860 Financial and technical services 48,049 52,291 48,192 47,530 213,230 4,297 4,655 11,926 22,401 9,369 14,409 20,320 14,473 27,755 20,885 10,422 19,991 16,383 24,896 Other 292,876 353,432 240,285 290,038 1,490,545 36,034 64,344 84,129 79,297 67,236 114,655 87,946 131,970 103,824 131,620 129,853 159,009 165,853 235,152 In economic infrastructure, total1 177,777 223,096 180,751 197,802 1,115,048 19,366 49,344 89,490 105,197 64,17C 57,115 68,286 76,713 202,593 107,145 76,037 58,919 63,391 145,992 Energy sector 46,562 46,469 42,212 36,857 273,428 4,832 7,335 11,771 26,320 12,892 9,072 9,797 14,671 13,194 13,996 29,763 27,846 28,806 75,300 Electricity supply 26,903 23,107 24,251 22,736 221,615 3,331 3,946 6,664 21,210 7,479 5,503 7,270 11,458 9,714 10,160 28,005 23,086 23,944 67,121 Gas supply 1,282 689 678 729 3,253 111 117 229 242 335 107 100 268 106 485 269 312 424 377 Hot water supply 2,725 2,027 2,564 2,640 10,368 346 714 1,540 898 640 350 290 267 890 634 1,015 787 684 2,374 Cold water supply 15,652 20,645 14,720 10,752 38,192 1,044 2,558 3,337 3,970 4,439 3,112 2,137 2,679 2,484 2,717 474 3,661 3,754 5,428 Transport infrastructure 131,215 176,627 138,539 160,945 841,620 14,534 42,009 77,719 78,876 51,278 48,043 58,489 62,041 189,399 93,149 46,274 31,073 34,585 70,692 Railways 1,717 1,822 2,615 6,677 12,013 493 70 590 1,360 897 727 1,406 1,629 515 1,204 1,144 1,143 649 748 Air traffic 1,774 2,660 3,462 2,120 28,412 139 502 1,508 2,028 1,515 2,064 2,802 4,143 3,147 2,251 1,646 2,003 3,352 1,953 Roads, motorways 103,849 141,157 106,040 136,142 734,898 13,150 40,435 72,863 62,228 46,038 41,167 40,883 49,348 182,016 84,437 39,653 24,436 27,818 64,010 Postal and telecom services 20,923 26,717 24,143 13,609 29,422 399 613 1,717 1,402 1,780 2,196 6,750 5,459 2,298 1,240 1,996 1,724 884 1,975 Other 2,952 4,271 2,279 2,397 36,875 354 389 1,041 11,858 1,048 1,889 6,647 1,462 1,424 4,017 1,834 1,767 1,882 2,005 Sources of data: SORS, BS, AP. Notes: *a large infrastructure company has been included in the construction activity since April 2007 (change of main activity from F to I). ''Outlays collected on the basis of data for individual investors. Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD Labour Market No. 2/2008 p. A 10 Number in thousand 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 Q IV Q I Q II Q III Q IV 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 A FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 899.1 900.3 905.0 910.7 925.3 914.0 919.1 923.5 924.6 934.2 911.3 918.0 919.2 920.0 921.6 923.6 925.4 924.5 923.1 926.0 934.0 935.8 932.8 B PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (C+D) 801.4 807.5 813.1 824.8 854.0 834.5 841.8 852.7 856.1 865.4 833.0 838.0 841.5 845.8 849.0 852.9 856.2 854.4 854.6 859.4 864.5 867.4 864.4 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 37.7 41.2 38.7 38.9 41.6 38.5 43.1 42.0 41.0 40.3 38.4 43.0 43.1 43.1 41.9 42.0 42.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 40.4 40.3 40.2 In industry, construction 318.4 313.9 310.9 313.3 322.9 317.6 317.4 322.2 324.8 327.3 315.9 316.2 317.8 318.3 320.5 322.3 323.9 324.3 324.4 325.7 327.7 328.4 325.7 Of which: in manufacturing 238.9 236.1 233.7 227.9 229.9 229.2 229.4 230.2 229.6 230.4 228.7 228.9 229.6 229.7 230.0 230.2 230.3 229.8 229.3 229.7 230.7 230.9 229.7 in construction 63.3 62.2 61.7 69.9 77.8 72.9 72.8 76.8 80.0 81.7 71.9 72.1 73.0 73.3 75.3 76.8 78.3 79.1 79.9 80.9 81.8 82.4 80.9 In services 445.2 452.3 463.5 472.6 489.5 478.4 481.3 488.5 490.3 497.8 478.7 478.8 480.7 484.4 486.6 488.6 490.3 489.1 489.2 492.7 496.4 498.7 498.5 Of which: in public administration 47.7 49.9 49.1 50.2 50.1 50.1 49.7 50.1 50.2 50.3 49.9 49.8 49.7 49.7 49.9 50.1 50.2 50.2 50.2 50.2 50.3 50.3 50.4 in education, health-services, social work 102.7 105.0 106.5 109.1 110.0 110.0 109.9 110.2 109.3 110.6 109.8 109.5 109.9 110.2 110.4 110.1 110.2 109.0 108.7 110.1 110.6 110.8 110.5 C FORMALLY EMPLOYED 1 722.1 724.4 731.6 741.6 766.0 750.7 753.1 764.7 768.6 777.8 749.2 749.5 752.9 757.0 761.3 764.9 768.1 767.0 767.1 771.6 777.0 779.7 776.7 In enterprises and organisations 656.0 658.7 666.2 675.1 696.1 682.6 685.8 695.0 697.5 706.2 681.7 682.8 685.6 689.0 692.4 695.1 697.5 696.2 696.1 700.1 705.2 707.7 705.9 By those self-employed 66.2 65.6 65.4 66.5 69.9 68.2 67.3 69.8 71.1 71.6 67.5 66.7 67.3 68.0 68.9 69.8 70.6 70.8 71.0 71.5 71.8 72.0 70.8 D SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS 79.2 83.1 81.5 83.3 87.9 83.7 88.7 87.9 87.6 87.6 83.8 88.5 88.6 88.8 87.8 88.0 88.1 87.3 87.5 87.8 87.5 87.7 87.7 E REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT 97.7 92.8 91.9 85.8 71.3 79.5 77.3 70.9 68.4 68.8 78.3 80.0 77.7 74.2 72.6 70.7 69.3 70.1 68.5 66.7 69.5 68.4 68.4 Female 51.6 49.3 49.4 47.0 39.1 43.6 42.0 39.3 38.0 37.3 42.6 43.2 42.1 40.7 40.2 39.2 38.5 39.3 38.1 36.7 38.0 37.1 36.7 By age: under 26 25.5 24.3 22.2 18.2 11.9 16.0 14.0 11.6 10.3 11.7 15.2 15.1 14.2 12.8 12.2 11.5 11.1 11.1 10.4 9.5 12.2 11.6 11.2 older than 40 43.1 39.7 40.1 39.7 37.1 37.9 38.7 37.2 36.6 36.1 37.7 39.0 38.8 38.1 37.7 37.2 36.7 36.9 36.6 36.3 36.1 36.0 36.3 Unskilled 43.2 38.6 37.5 33.7 28.0 30.8 30.4 27.7 27.0 26.9 30.8 31.6 30.7 29.0 28.2 27.7 27.1 27.2 27.0 26.7 27.0 26.8 27.1 For more than 1 year 47.5 42.9 43.4 41.9 36.5 40.2 38.8 36.7 35.5 35.0 39.7 39.6 39.0 37.9 37.4 36.8 36.0 35.8 35.6 35.0 35.3 35.0 34.7 Those receiving benefits 24.3 22.3 23.3 22.7 n.p. 19.4 19.1 16.8 15.8 n.p. 18.9 19.9 19.1 18.3 17.2 16.9 16.3 16.3 16.0 15.2 14.8 14.5 N/A F RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 10.9 10.3 10.2 9.4 8.4 8.7 8.4 7.7 7.4 7.4 8.6 8.7 8.4 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.5 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.3 G FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE -10.2 1.5 8.0 5.2 21.5 1.6 8.7 5.4 0.6 6.7 -4.2 6.7 1.2 0.8 1.6 2.0 1.8 -0.9 -1.4 2.9 8.0 1.8 -3.0 New unemployed first job seekers 25.4 26.0 21.7 18.6 14.7 8.2 2.9 2.4 2.3 7.2 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.0 5.3 1.2 0.6 Redundancies 68.8 69.6 67.2 63.8 52.5 14.8 15.4 11.6 12.6 12.9 5.0 7.6 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.7 4.9 3.5 4.2 4.5 4.3 4.1 Registered unemployed who found employment 50.5 54.3 53.9 57.4 49.1 13.6 1 4.8 12.1 11.3 10.9 3.5 5.1 4.4 5.2 4.2 4.1 3.7 3.0 3.8 4.4 4.3 4.1 2.5 Other unemployed erased out of register 47.3 46.6 33.1 39.2 28.0 11.3 7.6 6.9 6.2 7.4 3.1 2.0 2.5 3.1 2.4 2.5 2.0 1.6 1.9 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.2 Change in number of work permits for foreigners 3.5 -0.5 3.9 7.8 15.3 0.3 3.9 4.9 4.3 2.2 -0.2 0.3 1.2 2.5 3.6 1.7 -0.5 2.2 1.6 0.5 1.7 0.3 0.2 Retirements 2 19.4 21.0 18.4 20.6 20.7 6.5 5.2 4.8 5.0 5.9 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.1 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.7 Deaths 2 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Others who found employment2 27.8 43.6 34.1 39.0 20.5 10.2 1 4.3 9.2 4.5 11.1 0.0 9.1 3.5 1.8 0.8 3.3 5.0 -0.8 -0.9 6.1 5.5 4.5 -0.2 H JOB VACANCIES3 12.1 14.1 16.9 19.0 20.2 17.4 20.5 21.0 20.4 19.1 15.9 20.0 17.8 23.6 20.6 19.3 23.1 18.8 19.7 22.8 24.4 18.7 14.2 For fixed term, in % 73.8 73.7 75.6 75.3 76.5 77.5 76.7 77.5 77.2 74.4 76.4 77.1 75.1 77.5 76.9 79.1 76.6 78.4 77.1 76.5 76.4 75.2 69.8 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 39.7 39.7 41.6 48.3 60.2 50.9 52.6 59.3 63.0 65.8 50.7 51.0 52.2 54.7 58.3 60.1 59.5 61.7 63.3 63.9 65.6 65.9 66.1 As % of labour force (I/A) 4.4 4.4 4.6 5.3 7.0 5.6 5.7 6.4 6.8 7.0 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.3 6.5 6.4 6.7 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.1 Sources of data: SORS, PDII, ESS. Notes: 1In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. Data for previous years dating back to January 2000 have also been calculated according to the new methodology. 2Estimated by IMAD, based on data by PDII and ESS; 3according to ESS. Wages, Competitiveness, Exchange Rate Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 2/2008 p. A 11 2005 2006 2007 2006 2007 2007 Qiv I Qi Qii I Qiii I Qiv 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 9 10 | 11 | 12 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, in SIT, since 2007 in EUR Total 277,279 290,635 1,285 309,709 1,238 1,252 1,267 1,379 1,250 1,213 1,252 1,237 1,264 1,254 1,263 1,279 1,259 1,304 1,492 1,343 Private sector (A to K) 258,714 272,709 1,217 294,601 1,168 1,178 1,191 1,328 1,182 1,137 1,184 1,164 1,192 1,179 1,180 1,211 1,181 1,238 1,468 1,279 Agriculture, fishing (A, B) 224,253 236,822 1,069 255,337 1,010 1,036 1,048 1,185 1,030 978 1,021 1,026 1,057 1,026 1,029 1,073 1,044 1,113 1,323 1,118 A Agriculture 224,225 236,681 1,069 255,564 1,010 1,036 1,049 1,184 1,030 978 1,023 1,025 1,058 1,027 1,029 1,072 1,045 1,110 1,323 1,120 B Fishing 218,670 236,027 1,063 245,222 970 1,032 1,030 1,202 1,007 984 919 1,070 1,011 1,015 1,015 1,078 999 1,231 1,337 1,039 Industry, construction (C to F) 243,067 256,362 1,140 275,098 1,096 1,101 1,120 1,241 1,120 1,059 1,110 1,081 1,114 1,109 1,106 1,145 1,109 1,168 1,372 1,184 C Mining and quarrying 344,670 360,110 1,608 390,549 1,504 1,547 1,538 1,848 1,516 1,488 1,508 1,487 1,580 1,572 1,518 1,549 1,547 1,628 2,139 1,777 D Manufacturing 238,985 252,162 1,124 269,029 1,086 1,086 1,105 1,217 1,113 1,046 1,099 1,069 1,094 1,095 1,091 1,132 1,093 1,151 1,335 1,165 E Electricity, gas & water supply 353,836 373,743 1,657 439,645 1,494 1,537 1,564 2,031 1,539 1,442 1,501 1,483 1,551 1,576 1,502 1,602 1,588 1,689 2,553 1,850 F Construction 224,794 238,698 1,061 253,871 1,017 1,036 1,054 1,129 1,018 996 1,038 1,011 1,066 1,031 1,050 1,071 1,039 1,091 1,217 1,080 Production services (G to I) 253,747 266,326 1,189 286,264 1,150 1,156 1,167 1,280 1,151 1,128 1,171 1,153 1,163 1,152 1,162 1,177 1,163 1,204 1,377 1,260 G Distributive trade 244,880 258,521 1,161 278,198 1,122 1,130 1,143 1,247 1,127 1,097 1,143 1,130 1,135 1,125 1,136 1,151 1,142 1,176 1,332 1,231 H Hotels & restaurants 202,895 211,873 937 221,166 893 922 927 1,004 898 873 906 905 930 931 920 945 916 958 1,042 1,011 I Transport, storage & communications 299,377 310,080 1,368 334,933 1,333 1,320 1,331 1,480 1,324 1,317 1,359 1,316 1,332 1,313 1,329 1,343 1,322 1,377 1,627 1,436 Business services (J to K) 325,355 340,552 1,520 375,481 1,437 1,472 1,466 1,698 1,448 1,412 1,450 1,452 1,504 1,461 1,458 1,486 1,453 1,528 1,942 1,623 J Financial intermediation 413,896 443,595 1,986 523,782 1,812 1,943 1,834 2,347 1,797 1,810 1,830 1,897 2,021 1,911 1,833 1,853 1,815 1,973 3,015 2,054 K Real estate 292,763 304,295 1,361 324,256 1,307 1,312 1,341 1,480 1,326 1,274 1,321 1,300 1,328 1,309 1,330 1,361 1,331 1,379 1,583 1,479 Public services (L to O) 330,580 341,999 1,485 353,578 1,445 1,469 1,495 1,531 1,449 1,433 1,453 1,454 1,474 1,478 1,509 1,485 1,490 1,500 1,563 1,531 L Public administration 333,302 343,572 1,507 351,537 1,446 1,482 1,538 1,562 1,450 1,442 1,445 1,452 1,488 1,506 1,565 1,512 1,538 1,553 1,569 1,565 M Education 340,967 357,301 1,550 368,215 1,521 1,545 1,561 1,573 1,516 1,518 1,530 1,533 1,550 1,550 1,571 1,556 1,556 1,560 1,585 1,575 N Health & social work 316,827 325,245 1,400 336,103 1,367 1,393 1,405 1,436 1,387 1,344 1,369 1,386 1,401 1,392 1,423 1,401 1,391 1,404 1,453 1,450 O Other social & personal services 325,159 332,137 1,440 356,170 1,402 1,394 1,407 1,553 1,395 1,368 1,441 1,389 1,393 1,399 1,399 1,415 1,407 1,421 1,733 1,504 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS, 2001=100 Foreign exchange rates Effective exchange rate1, nominal 94.0 94.1 94.9 94.3 94.4 94.8 94.9 95.4 94.3 94.5 94.5 94.7 94.8 94.9 95.0 94.8 95.0 95.3 95.4 95.4 Real (relative consumer prices) 104.9 105.6 108.0 106.0 105.6 107.8 108.6 110.0 105.6 105.3 106 106.9 108 108.3 108.4 108.5 108.9 109.6 110.2 110.3 Real (relative producer prices)2 102.5 101.6 103.7 102.5 103.5 103.3 103.5 104.7 103.4 103.5 103.5 103.2 103.3 103.4 103.2 103.2 1 04 104.7 104.7 104.8 SIT/US$ 192.7 191.0 - 185.9 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SIT/EUR 239.6 239.6 - 239.6 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - US$/EUR 1.2448 1.2557 1.3706 1 .2902 1.3105 1.3482 1.3745 1.4494 1.2999 1.3074 1.3242 1.3516 1.3511 1.3419 1.3716 1.3622 1.3896 1.4227 1.4684 1.457 Sources of data: SORS, AP, BS, OECD Main Economic Indicators, calculations IMAD. Notes: Data on the monthly gross wage per employee for 2004 and beyond calculated according to the new methodology were published in September 2005. 1Change of methodology: the calculation of domestic currency's effective exchange rate includes the currencies/prices of Slovenia's 17 trading partners (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Italy, France, Netherlands, Spain, Denmark, United Kingdom, Sweden, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, USA, Switzerland, Japan); weights are the shares of individual trading partners in Slovenian exports and imports of goods within manufacturing (5-8 SITC) in 2001-2003; exports are double weighted; a rise in the index value indicates an appreciation of domestic currency and vice versa. 2Producer prices in manufacturing activities. Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD Public Finance No. 2/2008 p. A 12 Current prices, EURO thousand 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2007 QI QII QIII 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 CONSOLIDATED GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES (GFS-IMF methodology) TOTAL REVENUES 10,338,111 11,196,191 11,976,085 12,958,693 3,065,198 3,456,292 3,430,633 1,292,964 1,172,540 990,788 1,183,365 1,223,143 1,024,126 1,323,780 1,326,299 Current revenues 10,183,182 10,887,384 11,517,220 12,395,302 2,955,042 3,374,913 3,332,114 1,272,604 1,157,970 944,339 1,159,940 1,168,908 1,003,266 1,259,424 1,236,310 Tax revenues 9,560,470 10,210,728 10,883,952 11,761,990 2,828,698 3,199,681 3,123,561 1,218,988 1,094,220 886,473 1,089,818 1,099,501 934,243 1,194,103 1,168,132 Taxes on income and profit 1,921,718 2,115,163 2,241,947 2,735,294 587,733 914,251 646,272 462,894 288,258 163,099 168,660 251,354 226,259 233,374 235,747 Social security contributions 3,501,988 3,753,129 3,987,693 4,231,224 1,083,374 1,123,694 1,139,120 371,109 371,851 380,733 379,179 377,876 382,065 385,102 397,257 Taxes on payroll and workforce 448,273 491,053 526,193 472,934 96,050 99,669 101,537 32,767 32,408 34,495 34,122 33,563 33,851 34,118 36,515 Taxes on property 143,629 164,886 170,396 189,124 22,183 57,958 67,292 10,750 27,215 19,993 20,758 31,377 15,157 16,339 29,318 Domestic taxes on goods and services 3,399,171 3,574,570 3,914,698 4,077,290 1,017,613 973,023 1,135,454 332,537 363,303 277,183 475,447 395,375 264,633 514,537 459,906 Taxes on international trade & transactions 144,603 80,698 39,060 50,681 21,478 30,663 33,213 8,879 11,034 10,749 11,547 9,640 12,026 10,423 9,109 Other taxes 1,088 31,229 3,965 5,442 266 422 673 51 151 221 105 316 252 211 279 Non-tax revenues 622,713 676,656 633,268 633,312 126,345 175,232 208,553 53,616 63,750 57,867 70,122 69,407 69,023 65,321 68,178 Capital revenues 66,169 86,593 113,424 166,795 19,670 15,183 39,564 5,985 4,099 5,100 13,524 17,110 8,930 14,557 15,694 Grants 55,849 7,831 9,067 5,370 2,111 2,852 1,975 726 704 1,422 677 -93 1,391 1,361 748 Transferred revenues 32,911 31,449 33,967 42,811 2,154 3,765 1,926 265 1,073 2,428 1,168 624 134 882 42,976 Receipts from the EU budget - 182,933 302,407 348,416 86,221 59,580 55,054 13,386 8,695 37,499 8,055 36,595 10,404 47,556 30,570 CONSOLIDATED GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE (GFS-IMF methodology) TOTAL EXPENDITURE 10,665,555 11,552,442 12,275,729 13,208,676 3,203,059 3,394,883 3,241,483 1,061,847 1,242,417 1,090,618 1,095,382 1,090,740 1,055,360 1,140,532 1,252,801 Current expenditure 5,114,016 5,149,861 5,353,940 5,688,953 1,481,910 1,448,488 1,362,191 506,372 506,294 435,821 450,802 463,506 447,883 483,833 500,635 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditure 2,765,715 2,922,504 3,016,282 3,180,304 785,846 851,679 814,381 261,811 321,883 267,986 271,147 273,675 269,558 266,157 273,519 Expenditure on goods and services 1,883,826 1,793,780 1,910,960 2,073,233 490,243 482,587 517,992 155,076 169,278 158,232 170,183 183,399 164,410 187,410 211,973 Interest payments 386,668 383,629 372,142 376,392 197,549 105,283 17,472 87,080 12,021 6,182 6,768 3,277 7,428 26,571 4,888 Reserves 77,808 49,948 54,556 59,025 8,272 8,939 12,347 2,406 3,112 3,421 2,705 3,155 6,487 3,695 10,256 Current transfers 4,579,239 5,215,779 5,598,570 5,925,823 1,457,330 1,663,926 1,456,334 468,021 638,865 557,040 525,528 467,384 463,422 473,787 548,303 Subsidies 289,894 323,697 381,245 402,921 104,410 137,922 88,287 10,003 39,748 88,171 57,273 12,987 18,027 17,993 25,554 Current transfers to individuals and households 4,114,921 4,395,830 4,628,595 4,871,492 1,219,039 1,359,165 1,211,111 409,207 537,714 412,245 406,396 403,614 401,101 404,995 470,513 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 153,239 474,357 563,051 624,054 130,976 156,661 145,612 48,253 54,064 54,343 57,851 47,441 40,321 49,708 50,018 Current transfers abroad 21,184 21,894 25,679 27,357 2,905 10,178 11,324 558 7,340 2,281 4,008 3,342 3,974 1,090 2,217 Capital expenditure 593,103 631,383 654,246 901,419 133,374 162,993 266,879 46,708 55,586 60,699 72,229 104,199 90,451 117,277 121,036 Capital transfers 379,197 385,845 383,385 404,588 30,491 58,923 70,469 16,636 20,031 22,257 23,086 23,276 24,107 35,574 51,513 Payments to the EU budget - 169,575 285,589 287,892 99,954 60,553 85,610 24,109 21,642 14,802 23,737 32,376 29,497 30,061 31,313 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -327,444 -356,252 -299,644 -249,983 - - - - - - - - - - - Source of data: MF Bulletin. Note: in line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the state are not consolidated. Data prior to 2007 are recalculated on the basis of the irrevocable SIT/EUR exchange rate = 239.64. Main Indicators Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 2/2008 p. A 13 Real growth rates, in % 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Autumn Forecast 2007 GDP 3.1 3.7 2.8 4.4 4.1 5.7 5.8 4.6 GDP per capita, in EUR 11,298 12,084 12,695 13,400 14,116 15,167 16,532 17,888 GDP per capita, PPS1 15,600 16,600 17,000 18,400 19,500 20,700 - - Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 6.4 6.4 6.7 6.3 6.5 6.0 5.0 4.9 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 2.6 3.7 3.2 4.1 4.0 4.5 3.4 3.7 Inflation2, annual average 8.4 7.5 5.6 3.6 2.5 2.5 3.63 3.5 INTERNATIONAL TRADE - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS Exports of goods and 4 services 6.4 6.8 3.1 12.5 10.1 12.3 13.4 10.3 Exports of goods 7.0 6.4 4.4 12.8 10.3 13.4 13.1 10.6 Exports of services 3.5 8.2 -2.5 11.0 9.5 7.3 15.0 9.1 Imports of goods and services4 3.1 4.9 6.7 13.3 6.7 12.2 14.2 10.1 Imports of goods 3.2 4.4 7.3 14.6 6.8 12.7 14.3 10.1 Imports of services 2.2 8.4 2.9 5.6 5.6 8.9 13.1 10.0 Current account balance, in EUR million 38 247 -196 -720 -561 -857 -1,165 -1,118 Average exchange rate, SIT/EUR 217.2 226.2 233.7 238.9 239.6 239.6 - - Foreign exchange reserves, in EUR million 6,514 7,842 7,703 7,484 8,833 8,005 6355 - Gross external debt, in EUR million 10,386 11,524 13,225 15,343 19,614 23,895 34,0076 - DOMESTIC DEMAND - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS (share in GDP in %) Private consumption 56.2 55.2 55.3 54.3 54.0 53.4 52.8 52.5 Government consumption 19.7 19.5 19.4 19.2 19.4 19.2 18.8 18.9 Gross fixed capital formation 24.9 23.4 24.1 25.4 25.5 26.1 28.2 28.2 Sources of data: SORS, BS, MF, calculations, estimates and forecasts by IMAD - Autumn Forecast 2007. Notes: 1Eurostat; 2the consumer price index; 3SORS - 28.12.2007; 4balance of payments statistics (exports F.O.B., imports F.O.B.), changes in exchange rates and prices in foreign markets are eliminated by calculating real rates; 5end January 2008. From 1 January 2007 foreign exchange reserves of the Bank of Slovenia include foreign cash in convertible currencies, deposits abroad, and first class securities of issuers from outside the EMU in foreign currency. The drop in data values is the result of Slovenia's entry to the EMU; 6end November 2007. International Comparisons / I Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 2/2008 p. A 14 Real GDP growth GDP per capita in PPS1 EU27=100 Inflation2 (annual average) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006 Slovenia 4.4 4.1 5.7 N/A 82.5 85.4 87.0 88.0 3.7 2.5 2.5 3.8 EU27 2.5 1.9 3.0 2.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 EU25 2.5 1.8 3.0 2.8 104.4 104.2 104.1 103.9 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 EMU 2.1 1.6 2.7 2.6 112.0 110.8 110.8 110.3 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.1 Belgium 3.0 1.7 2.8 N/A 123.5 121.2 121.3 120.0 1.9 2.5 2.3 1.8 Bulgaria 6.6 6.2 6.1 N/A 32.6 33.9 35.4 36.7 6.1 6.0 7.4 7.6 Czech Republic 4.5 6.4 6.4 N/A 73.7 75.4 76.7 78.8 2.6 1.6 2.1 3.0 Denmark 2.3 2.5 3.9 1.8 124.7 126.2 126.9 126.0 0.9 1.7 1.9 1.7 Germany 1.1 0.8 2.9 2.5 117.0 116.8 115.3 114.4 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.3 Estonia 8.3 10.2 11.2 N/A 54.6 56.8 63.0 68.5 3.0 4.1 4.4 6.7 Ireland 4.4 6.0 5.7 N/A 141.1 142.1 144.0 145.7 2.3 2.2 2.7 2.9 Greece 4.7 3.7 4.3 N/A 92.4 94.0 96.5 97.8 3.0 3.5 3.3 3.0 Spain 3.3 3.6 3.9 3.8 101.4 101.4 103.1 105.2 3.1 3.4 3.6 2.8 France 2.5 1.7 2.0 N/A 112.3 110.5 112.1 111.1 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.6 Italy 1.5 0.6 1.8 1.5 111.2 107.0 105.0 103.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.0 Cyprus 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.4 89.3 90.7 92.8 92.1 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.2 Latvia 8.7 10.6 11.9 N/A 43.5 45.8 50.0 54.2 6.2 6.9 6.6 10.1 Lithuania 7.3 7.9 7.7 8.8 49.1 50.6 53.3 56.3 1.2 2.7 3.8 5.8 Luxembourg 4.9 5.0 6.1 N/A 247.6 253.6 264.7 279.7 3.2 3.8 3.0 2.7 Hungary 4.8 4.1 3.9 1.4 63.5 63.4 64.4 65.0 6.8 3.5 4.0 7.9 Malta 0.2 3.3 3.4 N/A 78.7 77.0 77.5 77.1 2.7 2.5 2.6 0.7 Netherlands 2.2 1.5 3.0 3.5 129.9 129.7 131.3 130.8 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.6 Austria 2.3 2.0 3.3 N/A 129.0 129.1 129.0 127.8 2.0 2.1 1.7 2.2 Poland 5.3 3.6 6.1 N/A 49.1 50.8 51.3 52.4 3.6 2.2 1.3 2.6 Portugal 1.5 0.7 1.2 N/A 77.0 74.9 75.5 74.6 2.5 2.1 3.0 2.4 Romania 8.5 4.2 7.9 N/A 31.5 34.1 35.5 38.9 11.9 9.1 6.6 4.9 Slovakia 5.2 6.6 8.5 N/A 55.7 57.3 60.6 63.8 7.5 2.8 4.3 1.9 Finland 3.7 2.8 4.9 4.4 113.5 116.8 115.2 117.2 0.1 0.8 1.3 1.6 Sweden 4.1 3.3 4.1 2.6 123.2 125.2 123.9 124.8 1.0 0.8 1.5 1.7 United Kingdom 3.3 1.8 2.9 3.1 120.0 122.3 119.4 118.1 1.3 2.1 2.3 2.3 USA 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.2 154.0 155.0 158.4 157.5 2.7 3.4 3.2 2.8 Sources of data: SORS; Eurostat. Notes: 1PPS - Purchasing Power Standard. 2 Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices for EU countries and Consumer Price Index for the USA. International Comparisons / II Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 2/2008 p. A 15 Survey Unemployment Rate Current account balance1, % GDP General Government Balance, % GDP General Government Gross Debt, % GDP 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006 Slovenia 6.3 6.5 6.0 4.7 -0.8 -2.7 -2.0 -2.8 -2.7 -2.3 -1.5 -1.2 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.1 EU27 9.0 8.9 8.2 7.1 n.p. 0.1 -0.3 -0.8 -3.1 -2.8 -2.4 -1.6 61.8 62.1 62.7 61.4 EU25 9.0 8.9 8.2 7.2 0.0 0.2 -0.2 -0.7 -3.1 -2.8 -2.5 -1.6 62.0 62.4 63.1 61.9 EMU 8.8 8.9 8.3 7.4 0.4 0.8 0.1 -0.2 -3.1 -2.8 -2.5 -1.5 69.3 69.7 70.5 68.8 Belgium 8.4 8.4 8.2 7.5 2.0 3.5 2.6 2.7 0.0 0.0 -2.3 0.4 98.6 94.2 92.2 88.2 Bulgaria 12.0 10.1 9.0 6.9 -8.5 -6.6 -12.0 -15.7 0.0 2.3 2.0 3.2 45.9 37.9 29.2 22.8 Czech Republic 8.3 7.9 7.1 5.3 -6.2 -5.4 -1.8 -3.3 -6.6 -3.0 -3.5 -2.9 30.1 30.4 30.2 30.1 Denmark 5.5 4.8 3.9 3.7 3.4 3.0 4.4 2.6 -0.1 1.9 4.6 4.6 45.8 44.0 36.3 30.3 Germany 9.7 10.7 9.8 8.4 1.9 4.3 4.6 5.0 -4.0 -3.8 -3.4 -1.6 63.8 65.6 67.8 67.5 Estonia 9.7 7.9 5.9 4.9 -11.3 -12.3 -10.0 -15.5 1.8 1.8 1.9 3.6 5.5 5.1 4.4 4.0 Ireland 4.5 4.3 4.4 4.5 0.0 -0.6 -3.5 -4.2 0.4 1.3 1.2 2.9 31.1 29.5 27.4 25.1 Greece 10.5 9.8 8.9 N/A -6.4 -5.6 -7.1 N/A -5.6 -7.3 -5.1 -2.5 97.9 98.6 98.0 95.3 Spain 10.6 9.2 8.5 8.3 -3.5 -5.3 -7.4 -8.6 -0.2 -0.3 1.0 1.8 48.7 46.2 43.0 39.7 France 9.3 9.2 9.2 8.3 0.4 0.5 -0.9 -1.3 -4.1 -3.6 -2.9 -2.5 62.9 64.9 66.7 64.2 Italy 8.0 7.7 6.8 N/A -1.3 -0.9 -1.6 -2.6 -3.5 -3.5 -4.2 -4.4 104.3 103.8 106.2 106.8 Cyprus 4.6 5.2 4.6 3.9 -2.3 -5.0 -5.6 -5.9 -6.5 -4.1 -2.4 -1.2 68.9 70.2 69.1 65.2 Latvia 10.4 8.9 6.8 5.9 -8.2 -12.9 -12.5 -22.3 -1.6 -1.0 -0.4 -0.3 1 4.4 14.5 12.5 10.6 Lithuania 11.4 8.3 5.6 4.3 -6.8 -7.7 -7.2 -10.8 -1.3 -1.5 -0.5 -0.6 21.2 19.4 18.6 18.2 Luxembourg 5.1 4.5 4.7 4.7 8.0 11.6 10.9 10.3 0.5 -1.2 -0.1 0.7 6.3 6.4 6.2 6.6 Hungary 6.1 7.2 7.5 7.2 -7.9 -8.4 -6.8 -6.6 -7.2 -6.5 -7.8 -9.2 58.0 59.4 61.6 65.6 Malta 7.4 7.3 7.3 6.3 -3.1 -6.0 -8.7 -6.7 -9.9 -4.9 -3.1 -2.5 69.3 72.7 70.8 64.7 Netherlands 4.6 4.7 3.9 3.2 5.5 7.5 7.2 8.3 -3.1 -1.7 -0.3 0.6 52.0 52.4 52.3 47.9 Austria 4.8 5.2 4.7 4.4 -0.2 0.5 1.1 2.8 -1.6 -1.2 -1.6 -1.4 64.6 63.8 63.4 61.7 Poland 19.0 17.7 13.8 9.6 -2.1 -4.2 -1.6 -3.2 -6.3 -5.7 -4.3 -3.8 47.1 45.7 47.1 47.6 Portugal 6.7 7.6 7.7 8.0 -6.1 -7.7 -9.7 -9.4 -2.9 -3.4 -6.1 -3.9 56.9 58.3 63.7 64.8 Romania 8.1 7.2 7.3 N/A -5.5 -8.4 -8.6 -10.4 -1.5 -1.5 -1.4 -1.9 21.5 18.8 15.8 12.4 Slovakia 18.2 16.3 13.4 11.3 -0.8 -3.4 -8.4 -8.2 -2.7 -2.4 -2.8 -3.7 42.4 41.4 34.2 30.4 Finland 8.8 8.4 7.7 6.9 6.4 7.7 4.9 5.2 2.5 2.3 2.7 3.8 44.3 44.1 41.4 39.2 Sweden 6.3 7.4 7.1 6.1 7.2 6.7 6.9 7.2 -0.9 0.8 2.4 2.5 53.5 52.4 52.2 47.0 United Kingdom 4.7 4.8 5.3 N/A -1.3 -1.6 -2.5 -3.2 -3.3 -3.4 -3.3 -2.7 38.7 40.4 42.1 43.2 USA 5.5 5.1 4.6 4.6 -4.8 -5.5 -6.1 -6.1 -4.6 -4.4 -3.6 -2.6 62.5 63.4 N/A N/A Sources of data: SORS; Eurostat. Notes: 1EU25 and euro area aggregates are adjusted for reporting errors concerning intra-EU trade; N/A - data not available. Graphs Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No.2/2008 p. A 16 INDUSTRY in d ices: average 2000=100 trend indices by the T RAMO-S EATS method 150 135 120 105 • ORIGINAL INDICES ■TREND INDICES FREIGHT TRANSPORT BY ROAD AND RAIL (mio tonne km) V 7 v -RAIL TRANSPORT -ROAD TRANSPORT 2oäö 2öää 2 a ä ä 2 a ä a a a a GOODS TRADE FOB, EXCL. INTERCURRENCY CHANGES 12-month cummulatives in EUR, bn REAL INDICES OF CONSTRUCTION PUT IN PLACE indices: average 2000=100; trend indices by the TRAMO-SEATS method 160 120 80 CONSTRUCTION BUILDINGS CIVIL ENGINEERING OVERNIGHT STAYS TOTAL indices: average 1992=100; trend indices by the TRAMO-SEATS method 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 ---------ORIGINAL INDICES -TREND INDICES EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT 110 108 106 104 102 100 98 96 94 --' • EMPLOYMENT, indices 2000=100 • UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (right axis) -i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—r 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 O LL aj a O LL aj a 0 25 20 15 10 8 7 Graphs Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No.2/2008 p. A 17 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 NET WAGES AND OTHER REMUNERATION, in EUR million PAYMENTS FOR INVESTMENT in EUR million, constant 2000 prices 450 -400 -350 -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 Œ > 0 O o CO Z O 112 EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE IN REAL TERMS indices: average 2001=100 BASED ON RELATIVE: ■ PRODUCER PRICE INDICES ■ CONSUMER PRICE INDICES 108 102 -1—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i— —i—i—i—i—i—i— 13500 12000 10500 9000 7500 6000 4500 3000 1500 0 HOUSEHOLDS' DEPOSITS in SITbn in constant 2001 prices DOMESTIC CURRENCY ^ 0) O o CO z o •5 (D O CO Z GROWTH IN SELECTED PRICE INDICATORS INDICES:2005=100 115 110 100 ---------PRICE CONTROL ■ CONSUMER PRICEINDICES ■ PRODUCER PRICEINDICES (DOMESTIC MARKET) —i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i— EURO EXCHANGE RATES indices: average 2001 = 100 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 500 95 Index Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 2/2008 p. A 18 Agriculture and food processing industry agricultural production 6/04:15, 2/07:15 age and education structure 8-9/02:22 agricultural holdings by size 7/02:18 CAP reform 7/03:18-19 negotiations with the EU 2/02:23, 1/03:17 prices 3/02:29, 3/03:14, 3/04:14, 3/05:13, 1/08:20-21, 2/08:16-17 reformed policy measures 5/02:16 sample surveys of agricultural holdings 10/03:15 cattle breeding main indicators, number of cattle, BSE, milk production 11/02:14, 1/08:20-21, 2/08:16-17 fishing 11/02:15, 8-9/04:16, 10/06:17, 11/07:19 forestry 4/02:18, 5/04:16, 11/06:19, 10/07:17 international trade 3/04:15, 4/06:23, 4/07:18 value added forecasting 4/07:21 Balance of payments see also External debt current account, capital and financial account, international money reserves 1/02:6, 2/02:6, 3/02:6, 4/02:5, 5/02:4, 6/02:4, 7/02:5, 8-9/02:6, 10/02:7, 11/02:5, 12/02:4, 1/03:3,4, 2/03:4, 3/03:7, 4/03:5, 5/03:4, 6/03:4, 7/03:5, 8-9/03:6, 10/03:4, 11/03:4, 12/03:4, 1/04:4, 2/04:4-5, 3/04:6, 4/04:6, 5/04:4, 6/04:4, 7/04:4, 8-9/04:4-5, 10/04:5, 11/04:4-5, 12/04:4, 1/05:4, 2/05:4-5, 4/05:5, 5/05:4-5, 6/05:3, 7/05:4, 8-9/05:5, 10/05:6, 11/05:7-8, 12/05:4, 1/06:4, 2/06:4-5, 3/06:4, 4/06:6, 5/06:6-7, 6/06:6, 7/06:4, 8-9/06:6, 10/06:4, 11/06:6-7, 12/06:10, 1/07:5, 2/07:6-7, 4/07:7, 6/07:5-6, 7/07:5, 8-9/07:6, 11/07:7, 12/07:6, 1/08:5, 2/08:3 changes in the balance of payments 8-9/02:21 terms of trade 8-9/02:6, 2/03:4, 4/03:5, 5/03:4, 7/03:5 export financing and export credit insurance 3/02:11, 5/03:22 foreign exchange reserves 8-9/02:6 foreign direct investments 3/02:7 regional composition of trade 7/02:5, 2/05:4, 3/07:16-17 trade in services 3/02:8, 6/02:5, 8-9/02:7, 3/03:5, 7/03:5, 89/03:7, 2/04:6, 8-9/04:6, 12/04:29, 2/05:8, 89/05:6, 2/06:6, 8-9/06:7, 2/07:8, 8-9/07:7 competitiveness of exports of services 12/02:18, 12/03:17 coverage of international trade in services (methodology) 3/03:24,25 regional distribution 6/04:20 Business subjects 5/03:21, 5/04:20-21 Economic subjects 4/05:17, 4/06:22 Co-operative societies business performance 12/02:17, 11/03:17, 12/04:30, 11/05:23 Corporate sector company performance R&D: 6/05:18 by kind of ownership 11/04:18, 8-9/05:23 by origin of capital 11/04:19, 10/05:22 by size 10/02:16, 10/03:22, 7/04:24, 89/04:26, 6/05:16 by share of exports in total revenues 11/02:19, 8-9/03:20, 10/04:20, 7/05:19 by technology intensity 10/07:20-21 by no. of employees 7/05:18 in 1994-2000 4/01:8 overall performance 5/02:15, 6/03:13, 7/03:20, 6/04:21, 7/04:24, 5/05:19, 5/06:22, 10/06:20-21, 5/07:21 in dairy industry: 1/08:20-21 in meat processing firms: 2/08:16-17 comparison of Slovenian and European enterprises 1/05:20-21 enterprises by size 7/05:17, 7/06:20-21, 89/07:22-23 entrepreneurial activity 5/06:17-18 compulsory settlement, bankruptcies, liquidations 4/02:17, 3/05:19 ownership structure, ownership concentration 1/03:15, 3/05:22, 6/05:15 foreign direct investment performance of companies employing foreign capital 7/03:21, 8-9/03:21, 10/03:21 number of business entities 3/02:20, 5/07:20 solvency of business entities 3/05:23, 5/06:23, 5/07:22 small sole proprietorships 12/05:20 Doing Business rankings (WB) 12/06:24-25 Competitiveness (export competitiveness) price and cost competitiveness - effective exchange rate, unit labour costs: - quarterly trends 2/02:7, 5/02:5, 8-9/02:8, 11/02:6, 2/03:7, 5/03:5, 8-9/03:8, 11/03:5, 3/04:4, 5/04:5, 8-9/04:7, 11/04:6, 2/05:6, 10/05:4, 11/05:6, 2/06:7, 6/06:4, 8-9/06:5, 12/06:8, 3/07:5, 5/07:6, 8-9/07:5, 11/07:6 annual trends 2/03:8, 3/04:5, 2/05:7, 3/07:5 international comparison SLO - CEFTA 3/02:10 market share 3/02:9, 5/02:5, 7/02:3, 11/02:6, 10/05:5, 6/06:5, 12/06:9, 4/07:6 value added and productivity methodological changes in measuring competitiveness 12/06:26 Competitiveness of nations country risk 3/02:4, 10/02:5 global competitiveness and country risk, int. comparison 3/03:6 global competitiveness IMD's annual report 5/03:17, 5/04:18, 5/05:20-21, 7/05:22-23, 5/06:19-20, 5/07:23-24 - corruption 1/02:4 - country's image 7/02:16 - location attractiveness 11/03:20-21 - state efficiency 7/02:15, 11/02:22 WEF Report 2/02:4, 11/02:22, 1/05:18-19, 12/05:17-18, 1/06:19, 1/07:24-25 - technology progress 2/02:4 Country risk see Competitiveness of nations Crime international comparison 3/03:26 trends in Slovenia 4/03:17 Development Report 3/03:20-21, 3/05:4-5, 5/06:4-5 Distributive trades companies performance 6/02:18 selected indicators 2/02:21, 3/06:11, 89/06:16, 12/06:18, 3/07:11, 6/07:13, 89/07:16, 12/07:13 value added 10:02/16, 12/02:16, 3/03:15, 6/03:12, 8-9/03:17, 12/03:13, 6/04:14, 89/04:19, 3/06:11, 7/06:15, 8-9/06:16, 12/06:18, 3/07:11, 6/07:13, 8-9/07:16, 12/07:13 sales capacities 12/06:23 competition 2/07:22 Earnings gross wage per employee by activities 1/02:13, 2/02:15, 4/02:13, 5/02:12, 6/02:12, 7/02:12, 8-9/02:15, 10/02:13, 11/02:12, 12/02:11, 1/03:10, 2/03:14-15, 4/03:12, 5/03:11, 6/03:10, 7/03:12, 8-9/03:13, 10/03:9, 11/03:11, 12/03:10, 1/04:11, 2/04:12, 3/04:12, 4/04:13, 5/04:11, 6/04:10, 7/04:11, 8-9/04:13, 10/04:13, 11/04:12, 12/04:10, 1/05:11, 2/05:14, 7/05:3, 8-9/05:12, 10/05:14, 11/05:14, 12/05:10, 1/06:12, 2/06:13, 3/06:9, 4/06:14, 5/06:10, 6/06:12-13, 7/06:11, 89/06:12, 10/06:11, 11/06:12, 12/06:15, 1/07:12, 2/07:12, 3/07:8, 4/07:14, 5/07:11, 6/07:11, 7/07:12, 8-9/07:12, 10/07:11, 11/07:12, 12/07:11, 1/08:12, 2/08:10 earnings in the public sector 7/07:19-20 Economic growth see GDP see also Sustainable development see also Strategy for the Economic Development of Slovenia Economic Policy Government's Programme for Effective Integration into the European Union 7/03:3 Programme for Entering the ERM II and Introducing the Euro 11/03:3 Education see Human resources Energy sector electricity selected indicators (production and consumption, international comparison) 1/02:15, 2/02:19, 3/02:22, 4/02:21, 5/02:19, 6/02:16, 7/02:21, 10/02:18, 1/03:13, 4/03:15, 7/03:15, 10/03:12, 1/04:14, 4/04:15, 7/04:15, 10/04:16, 1/05:14, 4/05:14, 7/05:14, 10/05:17, 1/06:15, 4/06:17, 7/06:13, 10/06:14, 1/07:15, 4/07:16, 7/07:15, 11/07:15, 1/08:15 prices 10/04:16, 2/07:20-21 international comparison 6/02:16, 7/06:13, 2/07:20-21 electricity market 2/07:20-21, 11/07:15 oil and oil products excise duties 1/03:13, 7/03:15, 4/04:15 prices - international comparison 2/02:19, 4/02:21, 5/02:19, 7/02:21, 1/03:13, 4/03:15, 7/03:15, 10/03:12, 1/05:14 pricing model for liquid fuel prices 1/03:13, 4/03:15, 4/04:15, 7/04:15,19 Environment - Environmental policy see also Sustainable development environmentally intensive exports 3/02:26 merchandise export with high content of natural resources 3/02:27 environmental component of economic development 5/07:17 greenhouse gas emissions 6/07:22-23 EU economic trends and forecasts 11/02:4, 3/03:4-5, 7/03:4, 8-9/03:5, 7/04:3,19, 11/05:3, 11/06:4 Lisbon strategy 11/05:4-5 Stability and growth pact 10/06:19 tax and contributions structure 11/05:19-20 public finance flows between SLO and EU 1/07:26, 10/07:22-23 Slovenia's accession to the EU Report on Progress towards Accession 10/02:6 Exchange rate see Competitiveness Exchange rate mechanism (ERM) II 6/04:3, 6/04:6 External debt of Slovenia 2/03:6, 10/04:6, 3/05:6 external debt statistics according to new methodology: - gross external debt it s dynamic indicators 10/03:20 foreign exchange reserves/external debt 1/02:6, 2/03:6 Forecasts for Slovenian economy by IMAD autumn forecasts 10/02:3-4, 8-9/03:3, 10/04:3-4, 8-9/05:4, 8-9/06:4, 8-9/07:3 spring forecasts 4/02:3, 4/03:3-4, 4/04:3-4, 4/05:3-4, 4/06:3-4, 4/07:4 Foreign analysts forecasts 11/02:3, 4/06:5 GDP - Slovenia annual growth 1/02:3, 3/02:3, 3/03:3, 8-9/03:4, 3/04:3, 3/05:3, 3/06:3, 3/07:3, 12/07:3 - economic growth components 3/03:3, 89/03:4, 3/04:3, 3/05:3, 3/07:3, 12/07:5 - international comparison see International environment quarterly growth 6/02:3, 8-9/02:3, 12/02:3, 6/03:3, 8-9/03:4, 12/03:3, 3/04:3, 6/04:3, 8-9/04:3, 12/04:3, 1/05:3, 3/05:3, 8-9/06:3, 11/06:4-5, 11/07:4-5, 12/07:3, 12/07:5, 2/08:4 Past and Future of Slovenian GDP 12/04:22 Room for Future Improvement of Slovenian GDP Growth 12/04:23 Global competitiveness see Competitiveness of nations Households Household Budget Survey 10:02/20 private consumption and indebtedness 1/02:11, 8-9/02:17, 12/02:13, 1/04:13, 7/04:13, 8-9/04:15, 12/04:12, 3/05:16, 6/05:11, 8-9/05:15, 12/05:11, 3/06:12, 6/06:15, 8-9/06:15, 12/06:17, 3/07:9, 3/07:18, 6/07:15, 8-9/07:15, 12/07:15 available and allocated assets of households 12/05:19, 1/07:20-21, 12/07:20-21, 1/08:22 Human development see Social indicators Human resources see also Social Indicators Education youth in secondary education 6/07:19-21 adults in secondary schools 7/06:22-23 informal/continuing education 10/06:18, 12/07:19 Index Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 2/2008 p. A 19 lifelong learning 6/06:21-22 higher education7/02:24, 7/05:20-21, 89/05:22, 7/06:24 higher education-scholarships 8-9/06:21, 1/08:19 mobility of students 4/07:24-25, 5/07:18-19 expenditure on educational institutions -international comparison 6/05:17, 1/06:20-21 public expenditure on education -international comparison 12/04:21, 1/06:2021 science and technology graduates 3/06:1617 Industry and construction construction 2/02:22, 4/02:20, 5/02:18, 6/02:15, 7/02:20, 8-9/02:19, 10/02:17, 12/02:15, 2/03:17, 5/03:14, 8-9/03:16, 11/03:14, 2/04:15, 5/04:14, 8-9/04:18, 12/04:14, 2/05:17, 5/05:12, 8-9/05:14, 11/05:16, 2/06:15, 5/06:12, 8-9/06:14, 11/06:14, 2/07:14, 5/07:13, 8-9/07:14, 11/07:14, 2/08:12 manufacturing export-oriented companies 6/02:14, 8-9/02:18 technology intensity 10/07:20-21, 11/07:13 financial indicators 7/02:19 production volumes, trends, forecasts and employment 2/02:18, 3/02:21, 4/02:19, 5/02:17, 6/02:14, 8-9/02:18, 11/02:16, 12/02:14, 1/03:12, 3/03:17, 4/03:14, 5/03:13, 6/03:13, 7/03:14, 8-9/03:15, 10/03:11, 11/03:13, 12/03:12, 2/04:14, 5/04:13, 6/04:12, 7/04:14, 8-9/04:17, 10/04:15, 11/04:14, 12/04:13, 1/05:13, 2/05:16, 4/05:13, 5/05:11, 6/05:12, 7/05:12, 8-9/05:13, 10/05:15, 11/05:15, 12/05:12, 1/06:13, 2/06:14, 3/06:10, 4/06:15, 5/06:11, 6/06:14, 7/06:12, 8-9/06:13, 10/06:12, 11/06:13, 12/06:16, 1/07:13, 2/07:13, 4/07:15, 5/07:12, 6/07:12, 7/07:13, 8-9/07:13, 10/07:12, 11/07:13, 12/07:12, 1/08:13, 2/08:11 value added and productivity by activities 7/02:19, 12/02:3, 8-9/03:15 Industrial policy State aid - international comparisons 1/03:16 Industrial relations see also Labour market employment relationship collective bargaining coverage and extension procedures 2/04:22-23 employment relationships act 6/02:19 European works councils 5/05:22 working time 11/04:20 strikes data collections and international comparisons 3/04:20-21 membership in employers' organisations 12/03:18 employee participation in a European Joint-Stock Company 3/05:23 Inflation see Prices Information technology use of internet 3/02:28 Institutions trust in institutions 12/02:19, 4/06:21 Insurance sector international comparison export financing and export credit insurance see Balance of payments / foreign trade policy International environment 3/02:5, 7/02:4, 8-9/02:4-5, 11/02:4, 7/03:4, 89/03:5, 1/05:3, 5/05:3, 4/06:5, 12/06:6-7, 1/07:4, 2/07:4-5, 3/07:4, 4/07:5, 5/07:4-5, 6/07:4, 7/07:4, 8-9/07:4, 10/07:4, 11/07:4-5, 12/07:4, 1/08:4, 2/08:4 Germany 1/02:5, 3/03:4,5, 7/03:4, 4/06:5, 12/06:6-7, 2/07:4, 4/07:5, 5/07:4-5, 7/07:4, 1/08:4 candidate-countries for the EU economic developments and forecasts 4/02:4 Croatia 2/02:5, 8-9/02:5, 3/07:4, 6/07:4 Labour market see also Industrial relations unemployment first-time job seekers 4/02:11 structure of registered unemployment 1/02:12, 5/02:11, 8-9/02:14, 2/03:13, 7/03:11, 8-9/03:12, 1/06:11, 2/08:9 survey unemployment rate 2/02:13, 3/03:12, 5/03:10, 8-9/03:12, 2/04:11, 2/05:13, 2/06:3, 12/06:14, 2/07:3, 2/07:11, 5/07:3, 2/08:9 selected labour market indicators 1/02:12, 2/02:13, 3/02:17, 4/02:11, 5/02:11, 6/02:11, 7/02:11, 8-9/02:14, 10/02:12, 11/02:11, 12/02:10, 1/03:9, 2/03:13, 3/03:12, 4/03:11, 5/03:10, 6/03:9, 7/03:11, 8-9/03:12, 10/03:8, 11/03:10, 12/03:9, 1/04:10, 2/04:11, 3/04:11, 4/04:12, 5/04:10, 6/04:9, 7/04:10, 89/04:12, 10/04:12, 11/04:11, 12/04:9, 1/05:10, 2/05:13, 3/05:11, 4/05:11, 5/05:10, 6/05:10, 7/05:11, 8-9/05:11, 10/05:13, 11/05:13, 12/05:9, 1/06:10, 2/06:11, 3/06:8, 4/06:12, 5/06:3, 5/06:9, 6/06:11, 7/06:10, 89/06:11, 10/06:10, 11/06:11, 12/06:14, 1/07:11, 2/07:10, 3/07:7, 4/07:13, 5/07:10, 6/07:3, 6/07:10, 7/07:11, 8-9/07:11, 10/07:10, 11/07:11, 12/07:10, 1/08:11, 2/08:8 vacancies and people hired 2/06:12 job vacancy rate 10/07:18 accidents at work 2/02:24, 4/02:12 education structure of persons in employment 12/02:10, 12/03:9 employment by activities 2/02:13, 8-9/02:14, 4/06:13 employment rate of older workers 8-9/04:25 employment of foreigners 4/07:22-23 jobs and (un)employment across regions 3/03:19, 8-9/07:21, 10/07:19 labour market flexibility 3/05:20-21 occupational structure of labour demand 3/02:17, 4/03:11 overtime work 6/02:11 structural unemployment 10/03:8 part-time work 2/03:19 work on contract 6/02:11 employment programmes 10,000 Programme 11/03:10 programme of refunding contributions of employers 7/02:11 Public Works Programmes 4/04:12 Programme of promoting self-employment 5/04:10 legislation Employment of Foreigners Act 3/01:15, 6/03:9 Active Employment Policy Programme for 2003 11/02:11 Vocational Rehabilitation and Employment of Disabled Persons Act 7/04:10 productivity growth 2/02:14, 1/04:10 Manufacturing see Industry Money market and monetary policy corporate liquidity 5/02:7 money aggregates, interest and exchange rates 1/02:8, 2/02:9, 3/02:13, 4/02:7, 5/02:7, 6/02:9, 7/02:7, 8-9/02:10, 10/02:9, 11/02:8, 12/02:6, 1/03:6, 2/03:10, 3/03:9, 4/03:7, 5/03:7, 6/03:6, 7/03:7, 10/03:6, 11/03:7, 12/03:6, 1/04:6, 2/04:8, 3/04:8, 4/04:8, 5/04:7, 6/04:6, 7/04:6, 8-9/04:9, 10/04:8, 11/04:8, 12/04:6, 1/05:6, 2/05:10, 3/05:8, 4/05:7, 5/05:7, 6/05:7, 7/05:6, 8-9/05:8, 10/05:8, 11/05:10, 12/05:6 monetary policy guidelines 10/02:3-4 banks interest rates 3/02:15, 10/02:10, 10/02:9 money market, loans 1/02:9, 2/02:11, 3/02:15, 4/02:9, 5/02:9, 7/02:9, 8-9/02:12, 10/02:11, 11/02:10, 12/02:8, 1/03:8, 2/03:12, 3/03:11, 4/03:9, 5/03:9, 6/03:8, 7/03:9, 89/03:11, 11/03:9, 12/03:8, 1/04:8, 2/04:10, 3/04:10, 4/04:10, 5/04:9, 6/04:8, 7/04:8, 89/04:11, 10/04:10, 11/04:10, 12/04:8,1/05:8, 2/05:12, 3/05:10, 4/05:9, 5/05:9, 6/05:9, 7/05:8, 8-9/05:10, 10/05:10, 11/05:12, 12/05:8, 1/06:7, 2/06:10, 3/06:7, 4/06:9, 6/06:8, 7/06:6, 8-9/06:9, 10/06:6, 11/06:9, 12/06:12, 1/07:7, 4/07:10, 5/07:9, 6/07:9, 7/07:8, 8-9/07:10, 10/07:7, 11/07:10,12/07:9, 1/08:8, 2/08:7 savings with banks and mutual funds 1/02:9, 2/02:10, 3/02:14, 4/02:8, 5/02:8, 7/02:8, 8-9/02:11, 10/02:10, 12/02:7, 1/03:7, 2/03:11, 3/03:10, 4/03:8, 5/03:8, 6/03:7, 7/03:8, 8-9/03:10, 11/03:8, 12/03:7, 1/04:7, 2/04:9, 3/04:9, 4/04:9, 5/04:8, 6/04:7, 7/04:7, 8-9/04:10, 10/04:9, 11/04:9, 12/04:7, 1/05:7, 2/05:11, 3/05:9, 4/05:8, 5/05:8, 6/05:8, 7/05:7, 8-9/05:9, 10/05:9, 11/05:11, 12/05:7, 1/06:6, 2/06:9, 3/06:6, 4/06:8, 5/06:21, 6/06:9, 7/06:7, 8-9/06:10, 10/06:7, 11/06:10, 12/06:13, 1/07:8, 4/07:9, 5/07:8, 6/07:8, 7/07:7, 8-9/07:9, 10/07:6, 11/07:9, 12/07:8, 1/08:7, 2/08:6 Maastricht criteria long-term interest rates 5/04:19 Population 1/07:22-23, 12/07:22-23 household savings see The money market Prices price trends - inflation, administered and unregulated prices 1/02:7, 2/02:8, 3/02:12, 4/02:6, 5/02:6, 6/02:6, 7/02:3,6, 8-9/02:9, 10/02:8, 11/02:7, 12/02:5, 1/03:5, 2/03:9, 3/03:8, 4/03:6, 5/03:6, 6/03:5, 7/03:6, 8-9/03:9, 10/03:5, 11/03:6, 12/03:5, 1/04:5, 2/04:7, 3/04:7, 4/04:7, 5/04:6, 6/04:5, 7/04:5, 8-9/04:8, 10/04:7, 11/04:7, 12/04:5, 1/05:5, 2/05:9, 3/05:7, 4/05:6, 5/05:6,23,24, 6/05:6, 7/05:5, 8-9/05:3, 8-9/05:7, 10/05:3, 10/05:7, 11/05:9, 12/05:3,5, 1/06:5, 2/06:8, 3/06:5, 4/06:7, 5/06:8, 6/06:7, 7/06:5,19, 8-9/06:8, 10/06:5, 11/06:8, 12/06:3, 12/06:11, 1/07:6, 1/07:19, 2/07:9, 3/07:6, 4/07:8, 4/07:3, 5/07:3, 5/07:7, 6/07:3, 6/07:7, 7/07:3, 7/07:6, 8-9/07:3, 89/07:8, 10/07:3, 10/07:5, 11/07:3, 11/07:8, 12/07:3, 12/07:7, 1/08:6, 2/08:3, 2/08:5 prices policy 6/02:7-8, 10:02/3-4, 11:02/3, 5/05:23, 6/05:6 harmonised index of consumer prices 1/05:22 core inflation 10/02:8, 12/02:5, 2/03:9, 3/03:8, 6/03:5 producer prices 3/07:6 bond yield curve see Money market and Monetary policy and Stock Exchange Productivity see Industry and Competitiveness Private Consumption see Households Public finance general government debt 10/02:15 general government revenue 1/02:14, 2/02:16, 3/02:18, 4/02:14, 5/02:13, 6/02:13, 7/02:13, 8-9/02:16, 10/02:14, 11/02:13, 12/02:12, 1/03:11, 2/03:16, 3/03:13, 4/03:13, 5/03:12, 6/03:11, 7/03:13, 10/03:10, 11/03:12, 12/03:11, 1/04:12, 2/04:13, 3/04:13, 4/04:14, 5/04:12, 6/04:11, 7/04:12, 8-9/04:14, 10/04:14, 11/04:13, 12/04:11, 1/05:12, 2/05:15, 4/05:12, 7/05:10, 10/05:12, 1/06:9, 4/06:11, 7/06:9, 10/06:9, 1/07:10, 4/07:12, 7/07:10, 10/07:9, 1/08:10 general government expenditures 3/05:12, 6/06:10 general government balance 12/04:3, 3/05:12 state budget expenditure 3/05:12 budget expenditure on culture 3/02:19 public expenditure on education - international comparison 12/04:21 Public services network see also Human resources 7/04:20 - international comp. 7/04:21 Public institutes financial results in 2002 11/03:18 financing 11/03:19 Public Health Institutes 2/04:20-21 Quality of life seeSocial indicators Research and development see Technological development Regional development company performance by regions 7/02:14, 7/05:24, 2/07:24-25 development deficiency index 7/06:25 jobs and (un)employment across regions 10/03:16, 4/04:20, 7/05:24, 2/07:24-25, 89/07:21, 10/07:19 regional GDP 2/02:17, 8-9/03:19, 4/04:20, 7/04:23, 7/05:24, 2/06:19 population's education structure - regional Index Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 2/2008 p. A 20 aspect 6/03:15, 4/04:20 population's demographic structure 5/06:24, 11/07:20 personal income tax base per capita 6/06:20 Report on structural reforms 10/03:3 structural changes in network industries 4/07:26-27 Report on economic and social cohesion 2/04:18-19 Services domestic trade see Distributive trades information technology see Information technology public services see also Public services network 5/02:22 international comparison 5/02:23 real estate, renting and business services 4/02:23, 4/04:16, 5/05:15, 12/05:13 prices of telecommunication services 2/06:20 tourism see Tourism trade in services see Balance of payments Social indicators civil society see Civil society equal opportunities policy 3/02:30, 8-9/02:24, 1/04:20-21, 3/04:18-19, 2/05:21-22 trust in other people 6/06:19 Human Development Report 5/03:18-19, 8-9/05:19, 11/06:17, 1/08:23 Social Overview 2006 12/06:4-5 human resources mortality caused by injuries: - due to external causes of injury 4/03:18 - by age and gender 5/03:20 gender-related development index 3/03:22, 10/05:21 gender empowerment measure 10/03:17, 10/04:19 gender equality 10/04:19 human development index 8-9/02:20, 7/03:17, 7/04:22 health insurance - supplementary 1/04:19 health expenditure 2/07:23, 4/07:30-31 social welfare cash benefits 11/06:18 social protection of the elderly 3/03:23 indicators (happiness, satisfaction with life, etc) 12/04:24-25, 3/06:18, 4/07:28-29 jobless households 3/07:15 long-term care 12/04:26-27, 4/07:32 parental leave-paternity leave 8-9/02:24 the at-risk-of-poverty rate 5/02:24, 12/02:20, 11/03:22, 11/04:17, 6/07:24, 2/08:15 Time Use Survey 10/02:21 transfers expenditures for social protection 8-9/02:23, 4/04:19, 3/06:19, 11/07:21 social benefits: - parents 3/02:30 - pensions 2/07:19 - financial social assistance 1/05:17 trust in institutions see Institutions Stock exchange turnover, capitalisation, indices 1/02:10, 2/02:12, 3/02:16, 4/02:10, 6/02:10, 7/02:10, 8-9/02:13, 12/02:9, 4/03:10, 7/03:10, 10/03:7, 1/04:9, 4/04:11, 7/04:9, 10/04:11, 1/05:9, 4/05:10, 7/05:9, 10/05:11, 1/06:8, 4/06:10, 7/06:8, 10/06:8, 1/07:9, 4/07:11, 7/07:9, 10/07:8, 1/08:9 bonds 4/04:11 authorised investment companies 5/02:10 indicators share turnover ratio 2/02:12, 7/02:10, 12/02:9 industrial sector indices 2/02:12, 12/02:9 investment by residents in foreign bourses 3/02:16 investment by non-residents 1/02:10, 2/02:12, 89/02:13, 12/02:9 mutual funds 6/02:10, 8-9/02:11 Strategy of Slovenia's Development 6/05:4,5 Sustainable development ecological footprint 8-9/05:20-21 Technological development R&D activity in Slovenia 10/03:18-19 R&D expenditure 4/02:16 R&D researches 7/02:17 Technology Achievement Index by UNDP 11/02:20 Public Research Institutes 11/05:21-22 science and technology graduates/students 3/06:16-17, 11/07:22-23 Tourism travels of domestic population 1/03:14, 3/03:16, 5/03:15, 7/03:16, 1/04:16, 12/04:28, 1/06:22, 1/07:27 foreign exchange receipts 3/06:15, 12/06:19 international comparison 2/02:20 overnight stays by resort 3/03:16, 5/03:15, 1/04:15, 5/06:13, 6/07:14 selected indicators 1/02:16, 2/02:20, 3/02:24, 4/02:22, 5/02:20, 7/02:22, 11/02:17, 3/03:16, 5/03:15, 10/03:13, 1/04:15, 6/04:13, 89/04:21, 12/04:17, 3/05:14, 5/05:14, 10/05:18, 1/06:16, 5/06:13, 8-9/06:17, 12/06:19, 3/07:10, 6/07:14, 8-9/07:17, 12/07:14 survey on foreign tourists in the summer season 6/04:19 Transport selected indicators 3/02:23, 6/02:17, 11/02:18, 5/03:16, 11/03:15, 2/04:16, 5/04:15, 8-9/04:20, 12/04:15, 3/05:15, 7/05:13, 10/05:16, 1/06:14, 4/06:16, 7/06:14, 10/06:13, 1/07:14, 4/07:17, 7/07:14, 10/07:13, 1/08:14 Value added see Competitiveness and Industry and Distributive trades Welfare see Sustainable development social welfare indicators: see Social indicators Acronyms in the text have the following meanings: AIS-Agricultural Institute of Slovenia, AJPES-Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, AP-Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Payments, APr-Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Privatisation, BS-Bank of Slovenia, bn-billion, CCIS-Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Slovenia, CSCC-Central Securities Clearing Corporation, DUNZ-Directorate of Administrative Interior Affairs, DURS-Tax Administration of the Republic of Slovenia, EIMV-Electro Institute Milan Vidmar, ELES-Electro Slovenia, ESS-Employment Service of Slovenia, GEM-Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, HICP-Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, HII-Health Insurance Institute, ICT-information and communications technologies, IER-Institute for Economic Research, IAAD-International Administrative Affairs Directorate, IMAD-Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, IPI-Industrial Price Index, LSE-Ljubljana Stock Exchange, m-million, MAFF-Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Food, MEA-Ministry of Economic Affairs, MES-Ministry of Education and Sport, MESP-Ministry of the Environment and Spatial Planning, MF-Ministry of Finance, MIA-Ministry of Internal Affairs, MLFSA-Ministry of Labour, Family and Social Affairs, MMTS-Market Maker Trading Segment, MST-Ministry of Science and Technology, N/A or (-)-not available, N/R-not reasonable, NFC-National Financial Corporation, OG-Uradni list Republike Slovenije (Official Gazette of the Republic of Slovenia), PDII-Pension and Disability Insurance Institute, p.p.-percentage points, PPA-Public Payments Administration of the Republic of Slovenia, PPP-purchasing power parity, PPS-purchasing parity standards, SCA - Standard Classification of Activities, SDC-Slovene Development Corporation, SEC-Slovene Exports Corporation, SIA-Slovenian Insurance Association, SITC-Standard International Trade Classification, SMARS-Surveying and Mapping Authority of the Republic of Slovenia, SORS-Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities (SCA): A-Agriculture, hunting, forestry, B-Fishing, C-Mining and quarrying, D-manufacturing, DA-food beverages and tobacco, DB-textiles and textile products, DC-leather and leather products, DD-wood and wood products, DE-paper, publishing, printing, DF-coke, petroleum products and nuclear fuel, DG-chemicals, DH-rubber and plastic products, DI-non-metal mineral products, DJ-metals and metal products, DK-machinery and equipment, DL-electrical and optical equipment, DM-transport equipment, DN-furniture and NEC, E-Electricity, gas and water supply, F-Construction, G-Wholesale, retail, trade, repair, H-Hotels and restaurants, I-Transport, storage, communications, J-Financial intermediation, K-Real estate, renting and business activities, L-Public administ. & defence; comp. soc. sec., M-Education, N-Health and social work, O-Other social and personal services. Acronyms of Countries: AT-Austria, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, EL-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, I-Italy, IE-Ireland, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LV-Latvia, LT-Lithuania, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America, PL-Poland, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia. Data: data for trends and seasonally adjusted series are calculated by using TRAMO-SEATS method if not stated otherwise. 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