Slovenian Economic Mirror J IMAD Economic Analyses/April 2007 No. 4, Vol. XIII Slovenian Economic Mirror presents current macroeconomic developments as well as selected economic, social and environmental issues. The publication consists of articles, which present the main economic indicators, assess the realisation of the spring and autumn forecasts, and monitor implementation of economic policies (earnings, public finance, prices, competitiveness, etc.). The periodical is published monthly, except in September. This issue of Slovenian Economic Mirror was prepared by: Boštjan Vasle (In the Spotlight), Lejla Fajić (Spring Forecasts of Economic Trends 2007), Jure Brložnik (International Environment), Slavica Jurančič (Competitiveness - Market Shares), Jože Markič (Balance of Payments), Miha Trošt (Price Trends & Policy), Marjan Hafner (Money Market - Household Savings, Money Market - Loans, Stock Exchange), Jasna Kondža (General Government Revenue), Tomaž Kraigher (Labour Market, Labour Market - Employment of Foreigners in Slovenia), Saša Kovačič (Earnings), Katarina Ivas (Manufacturing), Jure Povšnar (Energy Sector, Transport), Mateja Kovač (Agriculture - Forecasting the Changes in Value Added, Trade in Agro-Food Products), Tanja Čelebič (International Student Mobility), Valerija Korošec (Life Satisfaction), Eva Zver (Health Expenditure by Functions of Health Care, Total Expenditure on Long-term Care), Rotija Kmet Zupančič, Jure Povšnar (Structural Changes in Network Industries - Effects of Liberalisation). Director: Janez Šušteršič. Editor in Chief: Luka Žakelj. Translator: Tina Potrato. Language Editor: Murray Bales. Technical Editor: Ema Bertina Kopitar. Statistical Appendix, Data Preparation & Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman. Distribution: Katja Ferfolja. Printed by: Tiskarna Štrok. Concept & Design: Sandi Radovan, Studio DVA. Circulation: 610 copies. Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development Gregorčičeva 27, 1000 Ljubljana (+386 1) 478 10 12 fax: 478 10 70 Editor in chief: luka.zakelj@gov.si Translator: tina.potrato@gov.si Distribution: publicistika.umar@gov.si SEM can be found on the Internet at http://www.gov.si/umar/ Publication is included in Ebsco Publishing Database and Internet Securities Database. © Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, 2007. The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. 2 In the Spotlight Favourable macroeconomic trends continue in the first months of the year; the first effects of the tax reform are already visible p. 3 Spring Forecast of Economic Trends 2007 Economic growth in 2007-2009 projected above 4%, inflation around 2.5% p. 4 International Environment High forecasts of global GDP growth despite the slowdown in the USA; continuation of last year's favourable trends in Germany despite the VAT rise p. 5 Competitiveness -Market Shares In 2006, the aggregate market share continued to increase for the sixth consecutive year p. 6 Balance of Payments The deficit in merchandise trade widened in the first two months of 2007 p. 7 Price Trends & Policy Core inflation indicators confirm price stability in Slovenia p. 8 Money Market -Household Savings High net inflows into mutual funds p. 9 Money Market - Loans The year-on-year growth of consumer loans is easing off p. 10 Stock Exchange The rise in indexes on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange strengthened further p. 11 General Government Revenue The first effects of the changed tax legislation visible after three months p. 12 Labour Market Favourable trends in the labour market continue p. 13 Earnings February's gross wages declined after the relatively high increase in January p. 14 Manufacturing The positive developments in manufacturing are also reflected in employment p. 15 Energy Sector Electricity consumption decreased at the year-on-year level due to the mild winter p. 16 Transport The growth of international road freight transport was again very high last year p. 17 Trade in Agro-Food Products The fastest growth in the last few years; exports rose faster than imports p. 18 SELECTED TOPICS Agriculture - Forecasting the Changes in Value Added Calculations indicate a decline in the overall value added of ten analysed products p. 21 Labour Market - Employment of Foreigners in Slovenia Higher employment of foreigners continues in 2007 pp. 22, 23 International Student Mobility The number of Slovenian students studying abroad is rising but lagging behind the growth of the total number of students pp. 24, 25 Structural Changes in Network Industries - Effects of Liberalisation The first effects of liberalisation already visible in lower prices and higher efficiency; a number of factors still hinder faster development of competition pp. 26, 27 Life Satisfaction Compared with other EU countries, Slovenians' satisfaction with the quality of life is above-average, especially with leisure time facilities, local schools, and childcare facilities pp. 28, 29 Health Expenditure by Functions of Health Care First international comparisons of health expenditure by function pp. 30, 31 Total Expenditure on Long-term Care Total long-term care expenditure in Slovenia in 2004 estimated at 1.13% GDP p. 32 Data: (pp. A 1-A 12), Main indicators (p. A 13), International Comparisons (pp. A 14-15), Graphs (pp. A 16-17). Selected indicators of current economic Latest Compared to the previous month same period of previous year developments, change in % Data latest data pre-latest data pre-pre latest data Industrial production (value based) February -3.1 9.2 9.0 6.5 Manufacturing February -2.1 10.6 10.2 7.0 Electricity, gas and water supply February -20.7 -7.0 0.6 -0.9 Value of construction put in place, real terms February 10.5 33.9 37.4 15.3 Exports of goods (nominal terms in EUR)1 February 1.3 17.5 17.8 16.7 Imports of goods (nominal terms in EUR)1 February 3.8 19.2 22.7 16.2 Real effective exchange rate3 February -0.3 1.5 1.6 0.7 Gross wage per employee, real terms February -2.8 3.1 3.6 2.2 Total household savings in banks4, nominal terms February 1.0 8.6 8.0 7.7 General government revenue, real terms March 0.4 4.2 1.5 4.5 Growth in the no. of persons in paid employment February 0.4 3.3 3.1 1.4 Growth in the no. of registered unemployed March -4.4 -17.4 -16.7 -16.0 Growth in the no. of job vacancies March 32.6 6.9 5.8 4.3 Month current previous pre-previous Registered unemployment rate | February 8.4 8.7 8.6 Month current cumulative annual5 Consumer prices April 1.1 1.3 2.6 Producer prices (domestic market) March 0.3 3.1 5.0 Sources of data: SORS, BS, ESS, estimates and calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1balance of payments' statistics; 2in manufacturing, in the currency basket; 3euro's exchange rate for Slovenia measured by relative consumer prices; the calculation of the effective exchange rate includes the currencies/prices of Slovenia's 17 trading partners (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Italy, France, Netherlands, Spain, Denmark, United Kingdom, Sweden, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, USA, Switzerland, Japan); weights are the shares of individual trading partners in Slovenian exports and imports of goods within manufacturing (5-8 SITC) in 2001-2003; exports are double weighted; 4the year-on-year growth rate is defined as the ratio between the stock at the end of the current month and the stock in the same month of the previous year; 5total in the last 12 months. In the Spotlight Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. 3 The forecasts of global GDP growth published after the IMAD Spring Forecast was prepared confirm the expectations that GDP growth rates will remain high, albeit slightly lower than in 2006. The main reason for the lower economic growth forecast at the global level is the expected deceleration in the USA as a result of the downturn in the housing market. The possibility of an even stronger slowdown in the US than currently expected is also the main downside risk to the forecast. On the other hand, data for the first four months show that the VAT rise in Germany, which was still regarded as the main regional risk a few months ago, will have a limited negative impact and will not result in a substantial slowdown in economic growth (see p. 5). The available data show that favourable trends also continued in Slovenia at the beginning of the year. The volume of industrial production in manufacturing rose by 10.6% in the first two months of 2007, year on year. Stimuli for growth came from both the international and domestic environments since the turnover from sales in the domestic market rose by a real 9.3% in the two months to February while the turnover from sales in foreign markets increased by 9.6%. The high growth rates are followed by employment indicators in manufacturing; employment rose appreciably in highly and mainly export-oriented industries while having declined in industries mostly oriented to the domestic market. The SORS survey on business trends in manufacturing shows that the positive trends will continue in the months ahead since the value of the confidence indicator is still rising (see p. 15). Labour market indicators follow the favourable trends in the economy. Formal employment rose by 3.3% in the two months to February, year on year. In addition to the rise in manufacturing, the biggest increases in employment were recorded in construction (11.7%) and business services (8.7%). Registered unemployment also continued to decline; while this is a regular seasonal phenomenon in the first few months of each year, it has started off from a much lower level this year than in previous years. Registered unemployment fell by a further 4.4% in March. The overall decline in the first quarter resulted from the lower inflow into unemployment, since the number of first-time job-seekers who registered as unemployed dropped by 22.1% over the same period of 2006 while the number of persons who lost work fell by 20.5% (see p. 13). Wage growth remained moderate at the beginning of the year. The gross wage per employee rose by a nominal 5.6% and by a real 3.1% in the two months to February, year on year. The nominal wage per employee was 6.8% higher in the private sector and 3.2% higher in public services (see p. 14). In order to stimulate the development of the labour market and boost the quality of human resources, mobility in the higher education sector should be increased. Data indicate that international student mobility in tertiary education, which is one of the factors of the quality of education and a contributor to the development of the labour market, is low in Slovenia. The percentage of Slovenian students studying abroad totalled 2.1% in 2004, which is at the average EU-25 level but approximately 4-times less than in countries with the most mobile student populations. The share of foreign students studying in Slovenia is similarly one of the lowest in the EU-25 (see p. 24-25). Data on general government revenues for the first quarter already show the first effects of the changed tax legislation. The overall general government revenue rose by a real 4.2% in Q1, year on year. A notably high increase was recorded in revenue from corporate income tax, which was still paid in accordance with the old regulations from 2005 in the first three months of the year. Inflows from social security contributions increased as well. Especially due to the higher excise duties, there was also an increase in revenues from excise duties, whereas the inflow from VAT was lower than last year. The effects of the new legislation were seen in the revenue from personal income tax that was already paid in accordance with the new Personal Income Tax Act (which enacted new rates of taxes and relief). This revenue fell in real terms in the three months to March, as did revenue from the payroll tax which is being phased out (see p. 12). The official release of data on debt and deficit shows that both indicators improved in 2006. In accordance with the ESA-95 methodology which is used in the EU, the general government deficit declined by 0.1 p.p. last year to total 1.4% of GDP. Government debt also decreased somewhat to total 27.8% of GDP. The long-term price trends remain stable despite the relatively high inflation in April (1.1%). After consumer prices declined in the first two months of the year and recorded high increases in the following two months, prices in April were 1.3% higher than in December 2006, which is less than in the same period of 2006 when they rose by 1.5%. The price swings observed in the last few months were mainly caused by seasonal factors. In April, these included the higher prices of clothing and footwear, food and beverages, as well as higher oil prices. Based on the estimated core inflation which totals between 1.5% and 1.7% it is evident that the key macroeconomic policies (among government policies particularly wage policy, administered prices policy, and fiscal measures that determine the movement of prices) continue to support price stability after the adoption of the euro. Based on the long-term inflation indicators - average inflation has remained at 2.5% this year - the European Commission similarly finds that inflation in Slovenia remained stable amid a successful euro changeover (also see p. 8). Spring Forecast of Economic Trends 2007 Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. 4 Favourable economic developments are expected to continue in 2007 in a stable macroeconomic environment. GDP growth will decelerate somewhat this year (from 5.2% to 4.7%) but will nevertheless be higher than we projected in the autumn. Macroeconomic policy measures will continue to ensure a stable business environment and thus prevent any increased fiscal pressures or rising labour costs that could disrupt the macroeconomic balance. The deceleration in GDP growth this year will mainly reflect the lower growth of investment in motorway construction; due to the effect of tax changes and higher interest rate levels the growth of business investment will also moderate somewhat, which will cause the increase in gross fixed capital formation to halve in comparison with 2006 (to total 5.9%). The upward revisions of the projected trends in the international environment, which have been raised further since the preparation of the Spring Forecast, project a relatively small slowdown in global GDP growth this year compared with 2006 (see p. 5). The effect of this slowdown on the Slovenian export growth (from 10.0% to 9.7%) will be additionally cushioned by the expected rebound in the production and exports of vehicles from Slovenia in the second half of the year. The continuation of favourable trends is also indicated by the available data on exports (see p. 7), industrial production and business expectations of the business sector (see p. 15), and the high consumer optimism recorded in the first few months this year. The growth of private consumption will strengthen (from 3.3% to 3.6%) thanks to the lower personal income tax rates coupled with the continued favourable trends in the labour market. The increase in the volume of household loans is projected to ease off as a result of the higher interest rates, which is also already being confirmed by the data for Q1 (see p. 10). Economic growth in the next few years will largely depend on further implementation of reform measures and the planned infrastructural projects. Given the adopted macroeconomic policy measures and the projected slowdown in the external environment, GDP growth will stabilise at a level between 4% and 4.5% (for GDP forecasts broken down by components of expenditure and production structure see the Statistical Appendix, pp. 2-3). This shows that Slovenian economy's long-term growth potential, which has hitherto been estimated at between 3.5% and 4%, has increased. The growth of private consumption will decline again after its transitory rise in 2007. Investment in infrastructural projects will remain an important factor of economic growth. In addition to the intensive motorway construction, which is due to be completed in 2008, it will mainly include investment in modernisation of the railway network. The contribution of GDP growth factors based on investment in knowledge will increase only gradually. However, to achieve a more visible increase in potential growth to a level above 5% in the next few years as foreseen in strategic documents, the pace of changes would have to be faster than in previous years, particularly in R&D investment and innovation activity where changes have been relatively modest so far. The macroeconomic policy mix will continue to ensure stable price growth at around 2.5% in 2007-2009. Inflation has remained at this level from the beginning of 2006 (see pp. 3 and 8). The somewhat lower average inflation projected for the end of 2007 (2.2%; in 2006 and forecast for 20082009: 2.5%) is transitory and largely technical in nature (resulting from the effect of the monthly deflations in Q4 of 2006 and the first two months of 2007). The projected contribution of administered prices and fiscal policy will be similar as in 2006 throughout 2007-2009. The lowering of the personal income tax rates will reduce the tax burden especially in the higher income brackets where the propensity to save is higher. As a result, the total increase in disposable income resulting from lower taxes will not translate into private consumption and is not expected to cause any inflationary pressures. The continuation of relatively strong economic growth will enable a further increase in employment and a further decline in unemployment. According to employment forecasts for 2007-2009 (0.9%, 0.8%, and 0.7%, respectively), employment will continue to rise at the fastest rate in business services and construction. Contrary to previous years, this period will also witness a much smaller drop in unemployment in manufacturing. The forecasts for this year are already being confirmed by the current data (see pp. 13 and 15). Employment is also foreseen to rise in the group of public services, where employment in health and social care is expected to increase gradually throughout the period. In 2008 we also project a transitory surge in employment in public administration, linked to the Slovenian EU presidency. The ILO unemployment rate will decrease from 5.7% in 2007 to 5.4% in the next two years. Wage growth will strengthen in comparison with 2006. The increase in the real growth of the gross wage per employee from 2.2% in 2006 to the projected 2.9% in 20072008 and 2.8% in 2009 largely reflects the expected higher wage growth in the public sector where wage disparities will begin to be eliminated in accordance with the Salary System in the Public Sector Act, and the workload will increase due to Slovenia holding the presidency of the EU. The real growth of the gross wage per employee in the private sector will remain at a similar level as last year (2.9% in 2007; 2.9% in 2008-2009). The forecasts of other domestic and foreign institutions, published in April and May this year, are not very different from the IMAD forecasts: slightly lower for GDP growth and slightly higher for inflation. The GDP growth forecasts of the IMAD, the BS, the IMF and the EC for 2007 range between 4.3% (EC) and 4.7% (IMAD). The forecasts of the two foreign institutions for 2008 (both 4%) are also lower than the domestic projections (both 4.4%). The lower projected GDP growth in the forecasts of mainly foreign institutions compared with the IMAD forecasts can be explained by the lower projected exports in these forecasts as a result of the different estimated slowdown in the international environment and its impact on the Slovenian exporters, as well as different estimates of the car industry's contribution upon the launching of the manufacture of a new car. Regarding the inflation outlook, the forecasters agree that the disinflation in previous years was sustainable and that inflation will continue to hover around the achieved level, the forecasts for 2007 range between 2.2% (IMAD) and 2.7% (IMF, BS) and for 2008 between 2.4% (IMF) and 2.7% (BS, EC). The divergence is largely attributable to different assumptions regarding the dynamics of oil prices and some market-determined prices that are subject to strong seasonal swings (food, clothing, and footwear). A more detailed Spring Forecast of Economic Trends 2007 with a statistical appendix is available at: http://www.gov.si/umar/aindex.php International Environment Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. 5 2006 2007 2008 IMAD AR 06 IMF Sep 06 EC Feb 06 IMAD SF 07 IMF Apr 07 CONS Apr 07 EC May 07 IMAD AR 06 EC Oct 06 IMAD SF 07 IMF Apr 07 CONS Apr 07 EC May 07 Germany 2.7 1.1 1.3 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.1 2.5 1.5 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.4 EMU 2.7 1.8 2.0 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.6 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.5 USA 3.3 2.7 2.9 n.p. 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.2 3.1 2.8 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.7 Sources of data: IMAD - Autumn Report (2006), Spring Forecast (2007); EC Autumn Forecasts (October 2006); EC Interim Forecasts (February 2007); EC Spring Forecasts (May 2007); IMF World Economic Outlook (September 2006, April 2007); Consensus Forecasts (April 2007); Eurostat. The forecasts of global economic growth published after the IMAD Spring Forecast was prepared confirm the expectations that economic growth will remain strong this year, although at a slightly lower level than last year. After the 5.4% growth of the global economy in 2006, the IMF projects a 4.9% increase this and next year. The lower forecast primarily reflects the slowdown in economic growth in the USA, while GDP growth in Europe, Japan, and the rest of Asia is expected to be just slightly lower than last year. The main downside risk to the forecast is the possibility of an even stronger deceleration in the US economy than currently expected and the related uncertainty as to whether the rest of the world would manage to keep up the relatively favourable growth rates in such a case. On the other hand, it seems that the VAT increase in Germany that was still regarded as the main regional risk a few months ago will only have a limited effect, as evidenced by all economic indicators published in the first four months of the year. The slowdown in US economic growth at the beginning of 2007, although expected, will probably not last long. The prospect of a looming recession currently remains unlikely. The first release of GDP growth data in the USA confirmed the expectations of a substantial slowdown in the US economy. The annualised q-o-q growth totalled 2.5% in Q4 of 2006 and 1.3% in Q1 this year, which is the smallest increase in four years, mainly reflecting the drop in investment and exports. Data on the housing market, which is the main contributor to the cooling of the American economy, are also unfavourable for the first few months of 2007. Indicators of future activity such as building permits, new construction, and the sale of new homes do not suggest that the downturn in the housing market has already hit bottom. In the three months to March, the number of issued building permits dropped by 27.7% year on year, while the number of new buildings was 30.6% lower. Similarly worrisome are data on the new residential sales which fell by 3.9% in February after the 15.8% drop in January to hit its lowest level in seven years. These adverse indicators are accompanied by difficulties in the suprime mortgages market which comprises a small fraction of the entire mortgage market yet its breakdown could result in a general deterioration in lending terms. The IMF nevertheless expects that the recession in the housing market will bottom out this year and that GDP growth will pick up during the year. The IMF experts consider the risk of the recession spilling over from the housing market into other sectors of the economy to be currently low. The slowdown appears to reflect a temporary moderation rather than the beginning of a recession. Like during similar downturns in the past, the situation in the labour market remains favourable (the unemployment rate dipped to 4.4% in March, the lowest level in five years) as the jobs lost in construction and manufacturing are being replaced by the growing number of employees in the service sector. Nevertheless, it is not possible to rule out the possibility of a recession completely because out of the last seven recessions in the housing market, six were followed by an overall recession of the economy. Despite the increase in VAT in Germany, the most recent forecasts of GDP growth indicate a continuation of economic expansion, which is also confirmed by the data on industrial production. The increase in VAT rates was visible in the data on trade (which fell by around 1% in the two months to February, year on year), new car registrations, and the turnover of hotels and restaurants. On the other hand, the year-on-year growth of industrial production has not slowed down and remained above 6% in the first two months of the year. According to the EC's March survey on sentiments in manufacturing, total orders were at their highest level since the unification, inventories were at the lowest level while employment prospects were also at their highest level thus far. Data about unemployment similarly confirm that the recovery in the German labour market continues. After having totalled 8.4% in 2006, the German unemployment rate fell to 7.7% in Q1. This should also contribute to an improvement in the consumer sentiment, which according to the Gfk survey deteriorated in the first two months of the year, mainly due to the VAT raising, but which rebounded already in March in April. The business climate in Germany remains positive. The Ifo index achieved its second highest value since the unification in April while investors' sentiment measured by the ZEW index has been rising since November. The VAT rise has also had no remarkable effect on inflation thus far as it has not fully passed through to prices. Moreover, it has been distributed over several months, and the effect of the raising was further cushioned by the low oil prices seen in the first two months of 2007. At the year-on-year level, inflation rose from 1.4% in December to 2% in March. Data from the beginning of 2007 show that GDP growth in Germany will not slow down substantially, as was projected a few months ago. This is also corroborated by the latest GDP growth forecasts by the five leading German institutes (2.4%), the German government (2.3%), and the European Commission (2.5%). Germany reassumed its role of the European economic engine last year, which is also evidenced by the GDP growth rates in Germany and the EMU being equal in 2006. Competitiveness - Market Shares Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. 6 Market shares, % Growth rates, % 2003 2004 2005 2006 2004 2005 2006 Aggregate market share1 0.528 0.542 0.561 0.583 2.7 3.5 3.9 Germany 0.488 0.480 0.458 0.456 -1.8 -4.4 -0.5 Italy 0.562 0.583 0.588 0.621 3.7 0.9 5.6 France 0.181 0.217 0.292 0.267 20.0 34.7 -8.6 Austria 0.940 0.991 1.133 1.297 5.4 14.3 14.5 Netherlands 0.084 0.074 0.071 0.071 -12.0 -4.3 0.6 Belgium 0.045 0.061 0.062 0.065 36.5 1.1 4.9 Spain 0.089 0.094 0.111 0.128 5.3 18.6 15.2 UK 0.071 0.076 0.087 0.097 6.7 13.8 12.1 Czech Republic 0.448 0.435 0.521 0.527 -2.9 19.9 1.2 Slovakia 0.813 0.727 0.750 0.747 -10.6 3.2 -0.3 Hungary 0.527 0.511 0.531 0.629 -3.0 3.9 18.3 Poland 0.515 0.477 0.446 0.493 -7.5 -6.5 10.5 USA 0.037 0.034 0.022 0.026 -8.3 -35.2 18.2 Croatia 8.025 8.744 8.740 8.565 9.0 -0.1 -2.0 Russia 0.517 0.536 0.464 0.458 3.8 -13.4 -1.5 Sources of data: SORS, Eurostat, WIIW, US Census Bureau; calculations by IMAD. Note: market shares are calculated as the weighted average of Slovenia's merchandise exports in the imports of its main trading partners determined by the size of their shares in Slovenia's exports. The shares of individual trading partners in Slovenia's merchandise exports are also used as weights in calculating the weighted average (using Fisher's formula). Slovenia's aggregate market share grew for the sixth consecutive year in 2006. The significance of the EU market for the growth of Slovenia's market share increased further last year. Slovenia's market shares in the Austrian, Spanish and UK markets continued to rise rapidly. Following the more modest growth or a decline in 2005, Slovenia's market shares in Italy, Hungary and Poland recorded more visible expansions. The decline in Slovenia's market share in Germany, the country's most important market, slowed down whereas the drop in the French market was much smaller in comparison with the robust growth seen in 2004 and 2005 (also see the table). Outside the EU, Slovenia's market share in the USA rebounded last year after a sharp two-year decline. Slovenia's market shares in Croatia and Russia fell, the former after the stagnation and the latter after a much stronger drop in 2005. Slovenia's exports of goods to the Russian market surged last year (27.7%), however not by as much as Russia's total imports (29.6%). The growth of Slovenia's market share in the entire EU market slowed down in 2006 (to 6.3%) after the accelerated growth in 2005 (8%). Among the EU members, the market share of Slovakia, the UK, and Poland rose at appreciably faster rates than Slovenia's market share. The increases in market shares of Greece, the Czech Republic, and Luxembourg were only slightly higher than Slovenia's, while Finland, Sweden, Lithuania, and Hungary recorded lower rises. The market shares of other member states in the EU market shrank last year, with the exception of Malta whose market share remained at the 2005 level. In 2005 and 2006, the dynamics of Slovenia's market share in the EU market were strongly influenced by the exports of road vehicles (SITC 78; see the graph). Their share in the structure of exports to this market surged to around one-fifth. In 2005, the brisk growth in the market share of Slovenian goods was largely driven by the robust growth of road vehicles' market share. Under the influence of its strongly decelerated growth in 2006, the growth of the total goods' market share also moderated somewhat last year. Looking at industrial sectors (SITC 5-8; see the graph), the biggest improvement last year was recorded in the position of chemical products' exporters in the EU market (9.5%). Due to their strong export orientation to markets outside the EU, this sector lags considerably behind other industrial sectors in terms of the size of the achieved market share. The growth of the otherwise largest market share of goods classified by material (made from leather, rubber, paper, wood, textile, and metals) remained at the 2005 level (5%) while that of machinery and transport equipment slowed down (to 5.8%). The market share of miscellaneous goods (prefabricated buildings, furniture, clothing, footwear, other consumer goods) dropped last year, reflecting the decrease in the market shares of furniture, clothing, and prefabricated buildings. The market shares of non-industrial sectors, which are much less significant for Slovenia, rose considerably in 2006, with the exception of oils and fats. After Slovenia's accession to the EU, the market shares of exporters of food, live animals, and crude materials except fuels saw particularly notable increases (also see p. 18). Graph: Slovenia's market shares in the EU, % Total, excluding road vehicles Total (0-9 SITC) 0 Food and live animals chiefly for food 1 Beverages and tobacco 2 Crude materials, inedible except fuels 3 Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials 4 Animal and vegetable oils, fats and waxes 5 Chemicals and related products, n.e.s. 6 Manufactured goods classified chiefly by material 7 Machinery and transport equipment 8 Miscellaneous manufactured articles 9 Goods n.e.s. (=Total - SITC 0-8) Source of data: Eurostat, calculations by IMAD. 0.00 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.35 0.40 Balance of Payments Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. 7 Balance of Payments, Jan-Feb 2007, EUR million Inflows Outflows Balance1 Balance Jan-Feb 2006 Current account 3,675.8 3,837.6 -161.7 -66.8 Trade balance (FOB) 2,959.3 3,105.2 -145.9 -85.3 Services 506.3 370.5 135.8 130.6 Factor services 106.9 184.5 -77.7 -49.0 Unrequited transfers 103.4 177.4 -74.0 -63.1 Capital and financial account 3,457.5 -3,012.9 444.6 24.7 Capital account 44.7 -29.7 15.0 -2.0 Capital transfers 44.7 -29.1 15.6 -2.9 Non-produced, non-financial assets 0.0 -0.6 -0.6 0.9 Financial account 3,412.8 -2,983.2 429.6 26.7 Direct investment 60.7 -231.1 -170.4 -104.2 Portfolio investment 289.3 -1,344.6 -1,055.3 -218.2 Financial derivatives 0.0 1.2 1.2 -2.0 Other long-term capital investment 3,001.4 -1,408.7 1,592.8 578.9 Assets 0.0 -1,272.6 -1,272.6 -118.3 Liabilities 3,001.4 -136.0 2,865.4 697.1 International reserves (BS) 61.4 0.0 61.4 -227.9 Statistical error 0.0 -282.8 -282.8 42.1 Source of data: BS. Note: minus sign (-) in the balance indicates the surplus of imports over exports in the current account and the rise in assets in the capital and financial account and the central bank's international reserves. The deficit in current transactions recorded in the first two months largely reflected the growing deficit in trade in goods (see the table). The strong year-on-year growth of external trade continued in the first two months of the year but the trade balance was negative as import flows rose faster than export flows (18.3% vs. 16.1%). According to the SORS' preliminary data, exports of goods rose by a nominal 17.1% in the two months to February, year on year (by 17.2% to the EU-27 and by 16.8% to non-EU countries). The year-on-year increase in imports of goods strengthened as well, to 18.4 % (by 19.0% from the EU-27 and by 16.1% from non-members). Data for 2006 for the EU-27 are simulated in such a way that data for Bulgaria and Romania, obtained from the Extrastat data, are added to the EU-25 data. Data on trade in goods for non-EU countries are accordingly lower. We estimate that the trade deficit with the EU-27 countries increased by EUR 83.6 m (to EUR 294.2 m) while the trade surplus with non-member states increased by EUR 23.0 m (to EUR 148.3 m). Trade in services rose at a slower rate than trade in goods. Exports of services rose by a nominal 8.8% in the two months to February, year on year, while imports of services grew by 10.7%. Nevertheless, the surplus in the services trade increased somewhat. The latter reflected the favourable trade results in the group of other services (all other services except transport and travel), notably in merchanting and in various business, professional, and technical services. The deficit in the factor incomes was higher in year-on-year terms, mainly due to the higher net capital expenditures. Due to the strong borrowing of domestic commercial banks and the rising interest rates, the net paid interest on loans recorded the highest increase (interest payments on loans taken out abroad rose more than received . interest on bank loans extended to the rest of the world). The deficit in current transfers rose somewhat, largely due to the private sector's higher deficit in insurance premiums (notably non-life insurance premiums). The adoption of the euro as the national currency was also reflected in the structure of Slovenia's financial account of the balance of payments. The changes that have occurred since Slovenia's entry to the EU have mainly been reflected in the following items of the financial account: i) investment in securities; ii) other investment; and iii) international reserves (see the table). As the stock of the BS' bills is gradually decreasing, domestic commercial banks are redirecting a proportion of capital into foreign securities. In the first two months of the year, portfolio investment by domestic banks thus rose sharply - in foreign bonds and debentures (EUR 925.9 m) and in money market instruments (EUR 485.6 m). The high capital inflow -within other liabilities among other investment -reflected the increase in the BS' liabilities to the Eurosystem due to the non-cash payments in euros through the Target and Step 21 systems. The statistical definition of the BS' international reserves has also changed. Following the ECB's recommendations, only that part of foreign currency reserves which is nominated in non-euro currency and invested in non-EMU countries is included in international reserves in addition to monetary gold, the reserve position at the IMF, and drawing rights. The currency, deposits, and securities nominated in euros, along with claims on EMU issuers that were included in reserve assets prior to the introduction of the euro, have been redistributed to other items of the financial account (currency and deposits to other investment - the BS' assets from currency and deposits; securities to investment in securities - the BS' assets from debt securities). The total value of financial account flows and the total value of the asset position in Slovenia's international investment remain unchanged. 1Target is a decentralised system of European central banks set up for the conduct of monetary policy within the euro area. The banking sector uses it to settle inter-bank and commercial payments of high value, notably currency exchange and money market transactions. Step 2 enables efficient processing of payments of a small value (up to EUR 50,000) between banks in the EU. Price Trends & Policy Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. 8 2006 2007 Price indices Dec 2006/ O (Jan 06-Dec 06)/ Mar 2007/ Mar 2007/ O (Apr 06-Mar 07)/ Dec 2005 O (Jan 05-Dec 05) Feb 2007 Mar 2006 O (Apr 05-Mar 06) Consumer prices (CPI) 102.8 102.5 101.0 102.3 102.5 Goods 102.1 102.0 101.6 101.7 101.9 Fuels and energy 103.9 108.2 103.3 101.9 105.3 Other 101.7 100.5 101.2 101.7 101.1 Services 104.3 103.4 99.9 103.6 103.8 Consumer prices (HICP) 103.0 102.5 101.1 102.6 102.6 Administered prices1 102.1 105.8 102.4 101.8 103.9 Energy 103.7 108.0 103.3 101.6 105.0 Other 97.9 100.2 100.1 102.4 101.1 Core inflation: - trimmean 102.7 102.8 100.6 101.5 102.6 - excluding food & energy 102.0 101.2 100.6 101.7 101.5 Producer prices (domestic market) 102.8 102.3 100.3 105.0 103.1 Consumer prices in the EMU 101.9 102.2 100.7 101.9 102.1 Sources of data: CPI, HICP, IPI: SORS; administered prices and core inflation: IMAD's estimate; MUICP in the EU: Eurostat (provisional data) and IMAD's recalculation. Note: figures are not directly comparable between the years due to the annual changes of the administered prices index. Prices have remained relatively stable despite their increase in March. The March prices were 1% higher than in February and 0.2% higher than in December 2006. Average inflation has not changed significantly since December 2005 and totalled 2.5%. The price stability is also corroborated by both core inflation measures. The high inflation in March was the result of the higher prices of clothing and footwear as well as liquid fuels for transport and heating. As seasonal sales closed, the arrival of new clothing collections in shops translated into a price increase relative to the previous month (7.2%; contribution to inflation: 0.6 p.p.), whereas prices were lower than in December 2006 (5.1%). March also saw an increase in the prices of liquid fuels for transport and heating, which contributed 0.3 p.p. to the overall price rise. The government imposed excise duties on electricity in March. In order to preserve price stability to the greatest possible extent, the government used a legal possibility and imposed excise duties on electricity two months after the euro changeover. The introduction of excise duties produced no significant effect on inflation since the increase in electricity prices added less than 0.05 p.p. to it. Both core inflation indicators confirm that prices in Slovenia are stable (see the table). In the last twelve months, core inflation measured by the trimmean method totalled 1.5%, while the consumer price rise excluding food and energy totalled 0.2 p.p. more. The first indicator excludes a certain number of goods and services whose prices rise or fall the most each month. Those price changes that are affected by one-off factors and have a short-term effect on inflation are thus excluded from the consumer price index. The second indicator excludes two groups of goods and services that are known beforehand, namely fresh food and energy. Their prices tend to be highly volatile, which makes it difficult to predict their dynamics. After two years, the two core inflation indicators have converged again (see the graph). The main reason for their divergence in this period was the oil price dynamics in the global markets, which translates into Slovenian inflation through the prices of liquid fuels for transport and heating and is mostly included in the first indicator while by definition it is never included in the second one. The price rises of liquid fuels were not so high in this period as to be considered extreme and hence automatically excluded from the trimmean indicator. Therefore, the contributions of those price rises were mostly included in the calculation of the first indicator and were the main reason for the difference between the two core inflation indicators. We estimate that there are no other factors besides the oil prices in the global market that could cause both measures of core inflation to again diverge significantly from one another in the next few months. The narrowing of the gap between the two also confirms the stable and predictable price growth in Slovenia. Graph: Indices of measured and core inflation (year on year) 107 106 105 104 103 102 101 100 -Trimmean - - - -CPI excluding food and energy = * H \ ■» vi ^ "s. • « w ro z ""> s s ro Source of data: SORS, calculations by IMAD. Money Market - Household Savings Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. 9 Household savings in banks and EUR m, nominal Nominal growth rates, % mutual funds managed by 31 Dec 2006* 28 Feb 2007 28 Feb 2007/ 28 Feb 2007/ 28 Feb 2007/ domestic administrators 31 Jan 2007 31 Dec 2006* 28 Feb 2006* Total savings 11,451.1 11,626.5 1.0 1.5 8.6 Euro savings, total 7,181.3 11,185.5 1.2 - - Overnight deposits1 3,731.0 5,237.0 1.0 - - Short-term deposits 2,558.3 4,433.9 0.4 - - Long-term deposits 677.0 1,124.9 2.0 - - Dep. redeemable at notice 215.0 389.6 11.0 - - Foreign currency savings 4,269.8 441.0 -1.7 - - Overnight deposits1 1,794.3 191.3 -4.3 - - Short-term deposits 1,877.1 192.7 0.2 - - Long-term deposits 474.1 47.1 -0.4 - - Dep. redeemable at notice 124.2 10.0 7.9 - - Mutual funds2 1,967.3 2,305.2 7.7 17.2 56.0 to domestic currency loans, data from previous years are not comparable with data for 2007, and calculations of growth rates are therefore senseless. The volume of household deposits in banks increased in February for the fourth consecutive month. Domestic currency deposits, which have comprised more than 95% of total deposits since the introduction of the euro (this share topped 60% at the end of 2006), recorded positive growth. The year-on-year increase in household deposits in banks thus climbed to 8.6% at the end of February, the highest level in the last 12 months. The total net inflows achieved the value of EUR 175.4 m in the first two months of the year and exceeded the net inflows from the same period of 2006 2.4-times. The largest increase in the first two months of the year was again recorded in short-term time deposits. They rose by 2.4 p.p. more than in the comparable period in 2006. On the other hand, the fall in overnight deposits exceeded the decrease from the first two months of 2006 by 0.9 p.p. This development seems attributable to the fact that a proportion of euro deposits that was previously intended as a liquidity reserve flew to deposits this year due to the introduction of the euro. This is corroborated by the fact that the bulk of the 4.3% increase in these deposits occurred in January. Similarly, the cumulative drop in overnight deposits in the first two months of the year was caused by their decline in January. In February, the 1.2% increase in domestic currency deposits was largely underpinned by overnight deposits (a contribution of 0.5 p.p.), which comprise 46.8% of domestic currency deposits. Although deposits redeemable at notice enjoyed the highest increase (a good 10%), their contribution was small due to their low proportion. The volume of foreign currency deposits declined by 1.7% in February. While this is a substantial drop in relative terms, the net outflow of these deposits, which correspond to 3.8% of the total household deposits, amounted to a mere EUR 8 m. The fall in foreign currency deposits was largely the result of the lower volume of overnight deposits, which comprise 43.4% of the total household foreign currency deposits. The net flows into mutual funds moderated somewhat in March, yet with EUR 43.6 million they still topped the normal values considerably. In the first quarter, the net flows achieved the value of EUR 157.6 m, which was 4.4-times higher than in the comparable period in 2006 and very close to the total inflow recorded last year. The net flows of stock mutual funds, which exceeded the value from the comparable period last year by almost two-thirds, accounted for more than 80% of the net inflows into mutual funds. The increase was also strongly underpinned by the net flows of mixed mutual funds, which totalled EUR 28.5 m after having recorded a high net outflow of EUR 50.5 m in the same period last year. Total assets of mutual funds exceeded EUR 2.3 billion at the end of March, up 17.2% from the end of 2006. Since the value of net flows amounted to less than half of the absolute increase in assets in the first three months of the year, we may infer that the increase was to a large extent based on the positive average returns achieved by mutual funds in this period. Graph: Net flows into mutual funds 60 45 30 15 0 -15 -30 □ Stock funds □ Mixed f unds □ Funds of f unds m Z Q Source of data: www.finance.si, IMAD's calculations. Source of data: Monthly Bulletin of the BS, IMAD's calculations. Notes: 1demand deposits, 2data for March 2007; *due to the transfer of euro loans Money Market - Loans Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. 10 Domestic banks' loans Nominal amounts, EUR m Nominal loan growth, % 31 Dec 2006* 28 Feb 2007 28 Feb 2007/ 31 Jan 2007 28 Feb 2007/ 31 Dec 2006* 28 Feb 2007/ 28 Feb 2006* Loans total 20,073.5 20,879.4 1.7 4,0 24.2 Total tolar loans 7,495.6 19,823.6 1.5 - - Enterprises and NFI 3,938.4 14,287.4 1.5 - - Households 3,052.4 4,902.0 0.7 - - Government 504.8 634.2 8.4 - - Foreign currency loans 12,577.8 1,055.8 5.1 - - Enterprises and NFI 10,079.5 455.4 5.6 - - Households 2,329.8 586.3 4.9 - - Government 168.6 14.1 -1.7 - - Household loans by purpose 5,382.1 5,488.3 1.1 2.0 24.8 Consumer credits 2,288.3 2,295.0 -0.1 0.3 15.0 Lending for house purchase 1,952.0 2,019.6 1.9 3.5 41.5 Other lending 1,141.9 1,173.7 2.2 2.8 20.6 Source of data: BS Bulletin, calculations by IMAD. Notes: NFI - non-monetary financial institutions; *due to the transfer of euro loans to domestic currency loans, data from previous years are not comparable with data for 2007, and calculations of growth rates are therefore senseless. The lending activity of banks strengthened further at the beginning of 2007. The non-banking sector recorded net borrowing in the amount of EUR 805.9 m in the first two months of the year, up 17.3% from the same period of 2006. The increase was largely underpinned by the higher borrowing of enterprises and NFI. The total increase in the volume of loans relative to December was 0.3 p.p. lower than in the same period of 2006 due to the high base. The introduction of the euro has resulted in considerable shifts in the currency structure of loans since all euro loans were transferred to domestic currency loans on 1 January 2007. These loans thus comprised almost 95% of banks' total loans to the non-banking sectors (at the end of 2006, domestic currency loans amounted to just around 37%). After January's exceptionally high 3.5% increase in the volume of loans to enterprises and NFI, their monthly growth slowed somewhat in February. Enterprises and NFI recorded net borrowing in the amount of EUR 724.9 m in the first two months this year, which is a good third more than in the same period last year. In contrast to 2006 when enterprises and NFI mostly increased their net borrowing to finance gross fixed capital formation, this year has seen a surge in borrowing in the form of working capital loans whose net flows rose by almost 30% and represented more than three-quarters of the total net flows of enterprises and NFI. On the other hand, the net flows of loans intended for investment merely reached a good third of the value recorded in the comparable period last year. This development is probably attributable to the changed tax legislation, which abolished the general investment tax relief as of 2007. In the first two months of the year, enterprises and NFI also increased their borrowing abroad where they took out loans in the amount of EUR 190.5 m, over 50% more than in the comparable period of 2006. After February's relatively sizeable net repayment of foreign loans (EUR 126.0 m), the banks net repaid foreign loans in the amount of EUR 82.3 m in the first two months of 2007 whereas they recorded net borrowing of EUR 86.3 m in the same period of 2006. The increase in the volume of household loans has remained at a relatively low level for the third consecutive month. At the beginning of 2007, their volume rose by 2.0%, 0.7 p.p. less than in the comparable period of 2006. The weaker growth is largely attributable to the slowdown in consumer loans (41.8% of the total household loans), which achieved an 0.3% increase in the two months to February, 1.1 p.p. less than a year ago. The growth rate of housing loans similarly decreased somewhat, but this decline was caused solely by the much higher base than in 2006. This is confirmed by the net flows of housing loans which achieved the value of EUR 67.6 m in the two months to February, up 14.5% over the year before. The total net flows amounted to EUR 106.1 m and were 6.7% lower than in the first two months of 2006. Upon the introduction of the euro, the currency structure of banks' loans to the non-banking sectors changed substantially. The biggest change was recorded in enterprises and NFI, where the share of domestic currency loans increased by almost 70 p.p. compared with the end of 2006 to total 96.9%. Within household loans, the share of these loans rose by half as much and achieved the level of 89.3%. Graph: Net flows of domestic banks' loans, EUR m LO O LO O LO o LO O □ < CO 8 (5 z Q -i LJ_ 5 < Source of data: BS, calculations by IMAD. ^ I Stock Exchange Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. 11 Turnover and market capitalisation on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange Turnover, Jan-Mar 2007 Market capitalisation, 31 Mar 2007 EUR m Growth rates (%), Jan-Mar 07/Jan-Mar 06 EUR m Growth rates (%), 31 Mar 07/31 Mar 06 Total 919.2 -3.7 21,049.0 55.7 Official market Total 663.8 144.4 17,309.0 71.0 Shares 624.1 159.3 11,440.0 121.5 Bonds 20.5 -33.5 5,726.0 15.6 Semi-official market Total 126.6 9.4 3,740.0 9.9 Shares 63.6 52.8 1,949.0 21.5 Bonds 21.2 -45.6 1,014.0 -16.3 Shares of investment funds 41.8 19.0 777.0 32.1 Mutual funds MMTS (Market Maker Trading Segment Total 128.9 -77.3 - - Bonds 48.3 -86.7 - - Short-term securities 80.6 -60.5 - - Source of data: Ljubljana Stock Exchange, calculations by IMAD. Notes: figures do not always add up due to rounding; 1data are available from September 2005 onwards. After the above-average growth of indices on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange seen in 2006 their growth strengthened further in the first quarter of 2007. Despite the decrease in February, the main SBI20 index rose by as much as 20.5% in the three months to March, achieving the highest quarterly rise since the end of 1995. Since the positive trends on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange began in April 2006, the year-on-year increase was also at an exceptionally high level. At the end of March it totalled 73.3%, the highest level since 1994. Slightly lower growth was recorded in the total market capitalisation, which rose by a good tenth from the end of 2006 to the end of March. The lower increase was due to the modest 1.6% rise in the market capitalisation of bonds, which accounted for less than a third of the total market capitalisation at the end of March, having shrunk to its lowest share since January 2003. The market capitalisation of bonds from the official market increased by almost 2% whereas the market capitalisation of bonds from the semi-official market practically stagnated. On the other hand, the market capitalisation of shares (excluding investment funds) was up 16.3%, marking one of the biggest quarterly increases in the last few years. Within the group of shares, the market capitalisation of shares from the official market (excluding prime market shares) enjoyed the strongest quarterly growth of 23.3%. Nevertheless, the volume of the total turnover on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange (including the MMTS) fell somewhat in the first quarter in year-on-year terms. However, this decline was mainly due to the 77.3% drop in the volume of trade on the MMTS, which comprised almost half of the total turnover on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange in 2006. This development was strongly influenced by the high increase in the prices of shares, which causes a considerable drop in the demand for debt securities (due to their relatively low returns). This decline was almost offset by the higher volume of trade in shares, which rose 1.4-fold. Such a high increase largely reflected the 1.6-times higher trade in shares from the official market whereas the volume of turnover in shares in the semi-official market rose by 'only' 52.8%. Although the value of turnover in shares rose considerably more than their market capitalisation, the liquidity of shares on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange remains extremely low. The turnover ratio of shares (measured as the ratio between the quarterly turnover multiplied by four and the market capitalisation of shares) rose to 0.21, which is 63.0% higher than the year before yet still far below the values achieved by developed capital markets. Indexes on selected major capital markets recorded considerably lower growth rates. Their quarterly increases seldom topped 1%, whereas the value of the MSCI World, measured in euros, rose by 1.1%. Investments in the Frankfurt Stock Exchange were by far the most profitable as the DAX30 rose by 4.9%. Graph: Quarterly volumes of turnover on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange 1,200 1,000 800 n o F 600 Or 400 E 200 0 □ Shares excluding investment funds □ Bonds, total □ Shares of investment funds, and mutual funds □ Short-term securities ■ Mutual funds ///// sssss. '////J '////J '////J ■77777 '////J '////J '////J '////J ///// Q1 2003 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2004 2005 2006 Source of data: Ljubljana Stock Exchange, calculations by IMAD. Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2007 General Government Revenue Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. 12 Jan-Mar Growth index, nominal Structure, Jan-Mar General government revenue 2007 Mar 2007/ Mar 2007/ Jan-Mar 2007/ 2007 2006 in EUR 000 Feb 2007 O 2006 Jan-Mar 2006 Total general government revenue 2,889,576 101.4 95.4 106.6 100.0 100.0 Corporate income tax 181,236 114.3 86.2 138.8 6.3 4.8 Personal income tax 407,285 108.8 95.1 98.5 14.1 15.2 Domestic taxes on goods & services 986,087 92.7 90.4 107.5 34.1 33.8 Value-added tax 650,248 71.4 72.5 99.5 22.5 24.1 Excise duties' 240,387 102.0 86.8 113.2 8.3 7.8 Customs duties, other import taxes 21,478 153.8 227.6 195.1 0.7 0.4 Social security contributions 1,068,815 101.4 103.5 107.2 37.0 36.8 Other revenue 224,676 111.9 84.3 92.6 7.8 8.9 Source of data: AP, PPA, B-2 Report (gross deposits). Note: the figure is adjusted for excise duty payment periods. In the first three months of the year general government revenue rose by 4.2% in real terms compared with the same period of 2006. Apart from excise duties and import taxes, which no longer hold a major share in the structure of general government revenue, revenue from corporate income tax recorded the highest real increase in the first three months of the year (35.6%). Although the new Corporate Income Tax came into effect in 2007, the effects of this law will not become visible until next year. In the first three months of 2007 the prepayments of this tax were still based on the tax calculation and regulations from 2005. From April onwards, however, tax prepayments will be determined anew in accordance with the tax calculation and the legislation from 2006. Revenue from value-added tax decreased by a real 2.7% in the three months to March, year on year. The growth of revenue from VAT was slowed down at the beginning of the year mostly by the considerable VAT repayments. The real increase in revenue from excise duties picked up in the three months to March, year on year, and totalled 10.7%. Revenue from excise duties on mineral oils grew at a faster pace as the excise duty rates rose in comparison with the first quarter of 2006. March also saw the imposition of an excise duty on electricity. Due to the harmonisation of excise duties with EU directives, the revenue from excised duties on tobacco and tobacco products also rose considerably. Meanwhile, the revenue from excise duties on alcohol and alcoholic beverages declined somewhat. Revenue from social security contributions rose by a real 4.8% at the year-on-year level. The social security contribution rates of employees and employers remained unchanged (38.2% of the gross wage bill). Revenue from personal income tax was already paid in accordance with the new Personal Income Tax Act and therefore decreased by a real 3.7% in the first three months of 2007, year on year. According to the new law, the definition of the tax base remains almost unchanged, however the taxpayers' prepayments of personal income tax are now determined according to a three-rate tax scale (16%, 27%, 41%), which has two brackets less than the previous scale. The lowest tax rate (16%) remains unchanged; the highest tax rate (50%) has been abolished, whereas the two middle tax rates (33% and 37%) have been joined into one lower rate (27%). The new law also makes some changes to tax relief. While the general relief for all taxpayers is now slightly higher, the previous tax relief for various expenses (up to 2% of the tax base) and the purchase of homes (up to 4% of the tax base) were removed. The system of claiming and granting relief for family dependents remained largely unchanged; the tax relief for the disabled and the seniority relief for people aged over 65 are still provided. The law has also kept the tax relief for freelance artists, freelance journalists, student work, and voluntary supplementary pension insurance. The further reduction of the payroll tax resulted in even lower revenue from this source. In the three months to March, this revenue shrank by 15.8% in real terms, year on year. Following the increase in the minimum taxable base (in September 2004) and the enactment of the gradual abolition of the payroll tax whereby the payroll tax rates in individual tax brackets were cut from 3.8%, 7.8%, and 14.8% in 2005 to a respective 2.3%, 4.7%, and 8.9% in 2007, the average burden of this tax on the gross wage bill will decline from 4.2% in 2006 to an estimated 3.4% in 2007. Graph: General government revenue, EUR m 2,500 -|H 2,000 1,500 1,000 -I-500 0 Q1 2005 Q2 2005 Q3 2005 Q4 2005 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Sources of data: AP, PPA, calculations by IMAD. Q4 2006 Q1 2007 □ Other rev enues □ Social security contributions □ Excise duties □ Value-added tax □ Personal income tax ■ Corporate income tax Labour Market Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. 13 thousands % growth Selected labour market indicators Jan-Dec Feb Dec Feb Feb 07/ Jan-Feb 07/ $ 2006/ 2006 2006 2006 2007 Jan 07 Jan-Feb 06 $ 2005 Registered labour force (A=B+C) 910.7 908.3 911.3 919.2 0.1 1.2 0.6 People in formal employment* 824.8 814.1 833.0 841.5 0.4 3.3 1.4 in enterprises and organisations 675.1 667.3 681.7 685.6 0.4 2.6 1.3 by those self-employed 66.5 63.8 67.5 67.3 0.9 5.0 1.7 self-employed and farmers 83.3 83.0 83.8 88.6 0.1 6.8 2.1 Registered unemployed 85.8 94.1 78.3 77.7 -2.9 -16.7 -6.6 women 47.0 50.5 42.6 42.1 -2.5 -15.7 -4.9 aged over 40 39.7 41.9 37.7 38.8 -0.6 -7.1 -0.9 unemployed over 1 year 41.9 43.6 39.7 39.0 -1.6 -10.1 -3.6 Rate of registered unemployment (C/A), % 9.4 10.4 8.6 8.4 - - - male 8.9 8.7 7.1 7.0 - - - female 12.0 12.4 10.5 10.3 - - - Job vacancies 19.0 16.5 15.9 17.8 -11.2 5.8 12.3 for a fixed term, % 75.3 71.4 76.4 75.1 - - - No. of people hired 13.0 10.6 9.1 11.6 -13.6 -2.1 13.8 Lower education 3.9 3.0 2.6 3.8 6.9 3.0 19.4 Secondary education 7.1 6.0 5.2 6.2 -19.7 -3.9 13.8 Tertiary education 2.0 1.7 1.3 1.7 -25.0 -4.7 4.3 Sources of data: SORS, ESS, IMAD's calculations. Note: persons in employment according to administrative sources. Trends in the labour market are still favourable. As employment rose by 0.4% in February, the registered unemployment rate for that month declined to 8.4% while the number of registered unemployed fell further to total 74,216 in March. The inflow to unemployment is low, less than the outflow of the unemployed to employment, however the latter is also somewhat lower than a year ago. The number of vacancies and people hired is higher than in the first quarter of 2006 but only for people with a primary and secondary education. The growth of formal employment continued in February. The number of formally employed rose by 0.4% or 3,506 persons. The highest increase was recorded in construction (by 1.3% or 953) and in business services (by 0.8% or 561; within that, 173 people were employed in temporary work agencies, which hire most new employees in this activity). Employment in manufacturing also continued to increase, notably in the manufacture of metals and metal products (see p. 15). Registered unemployment is still declining. While this is a regular winter-spring phenomenon, it started off from a much lower level this year than in previous years. The number of registered unemployed fell by a further 3,453 or 4.4% in March. 895 first-time job-seekers registered as unemployed, while 3,972 people lost work. Meanwhile, 5,245 unemployed persons found work (828 more than in February), 1,399 moved to education, retirement, or other forms of inactivity, while another 1,676 people were struck off the unemployment register for other reasons. In the first quarter of 2007, registered unemployment shrank mostly due to the smaller inflow. There were 22.1% fewer first-time job-seekers who registered as unemployed and 20.5% fewer persons who lost work compared with Q1 of 2006. On the other hand, the number of the unemployed who found work was also lower than last year (by 5.3%). Further, the decrease in the number of the unemployed struck off for other reasons was similarly lower than last year (by 12.7%). The number of vacancies and people hired rose seasonally in March. The number of vacancies (23,655) was almost a third higher than in February, while the number of persons hired (13,944) increased by almost a fifth. Compared with March 2006, the respective increases were 8.8% and 4.0%. An increase continues to be observed particularly in the number of available and new jobs for people with primary and secondary education, whereas the number of vacancies for tertiary educated workers and the number of hired tertiary-educated people were lower in Q1 than in the same period of 2006. The estimated monthly unemployment rates for Slovenia released by the Eurostat have already dipped to below 5%. The unemployment rate is estimated to have totalled 4.8% in January and 4.1% in February. These figures denote seasonally adjusted survey unemployment rates, however the Eurostat has not published the detailed methodology for their calculation. The comparable average estimates for both the EU-27 and EMU totalled 7.4% in January and 7.3% in February. Graph: Number of persons hired by education level (quarterly data), 2004-2007 21,000 18,000 15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 Q1 2004 2005 Source of data: ESS, calculations by IMAD. Q1 2006 B C D E F Earnings Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. 14 Gross wage per employee, growth index Wages in In nominal terms In real terms1 EUR Feb 2007 Feb 07/ Jan 07 Feb 07/ Feb 06 Jan-Feb 07/ Jan-Feb 06 Feb 07/ Jan 07 Feb 07/ Feb 06 Jan-Feb 07/ Jan-Feb 06 Gross wage per employee, total 1,212.82 97.0 104.8 105.6 97.2 102.6 103.1 Private sector (activities A-K) 1,137.17 96.2 105.8 106.8 96.4 103.6 104.3 A Agriculture 977.88 94.9 105.5 107.0 95.1 103.3 104.4 B Fisheries 984.46 97.8 97.3 100.3 98.0 95.3 97.9 C Mining and quarrying 1,488.23 98.2 103.2 103.7 98.4 101.1 101.3 D Manufacturing 1,045.72 93.9 105.3 106.6 94.1 103.1 104.1 E Electricity, gas and water supply 1,441.85 93.7 102.8 103.7 93.9 100.7 101.3 F Construction 995.54 97.8 106.4 107.4 98.0 104.2 104.9 G Wholesale, retail; certain repairs 1,096.87 97.4 106.7 107.9 97.6 104.5 105.3 H Hotels and restaurants 873.48 97.3 102.7 103.3 97.5 100.6 100.8 I Transp., storage & communications 1,317.10 99.5 107.9 107.4 99.7 105.7 104.9 J Financial intermediation 1,809.67 100.7 109.1 108.9 100.9 106.8 106.3 K Real estate, renting, business services 1,274.40 96.1 104.0 105.4 96.3 101.9 103.0 Public services (activities L to O) 1,432.56 98.9 102.8 103.2 99.1 100.7 100.8 L Public administration 1,441.87 99.4 101.7 102.1 99.6 99.6 99.7 M Education 1,517.76 100.1 104.5 104.7 100.3 102.4 102.3 N Health and social work 1,343.96 96.9 101.9 102.6 97.1 99.9 100.2 O Other social and personal services 1,368.12 98.0 102.3 102.6 98.2 100.2 100.2 Source of data: SORS and IMAD's calculations for the private sector and public services. Note: deflated by the consumer price index. The gross wage per employee fell sharply in February, by 3%. The drop was observed particularly in the private sector (A to K), where the gross wage per employee decreased by a nominal 3.8%. Since February was just one working day shorter than January, the monthly nominal fall in gross wages in this sector was unusually large. The biggest drop in wages was observed in industry and construction (C, D, E, F). The nominal decline in the group as a whole totalled 5.4%, while the biggest drop was recorded in electricity, gas and water supply, and in manufacturing (see the table). The latter employs around 40% of all workers in the private sector, and the dynamics of wages in manufacturing consequently have a strong impact on movements of the average wage in this sector. February's unusually large decline in manufacturing's wages followed their nominal increase in January, a month in which wages normally fall. It appears that this can be explained by a time lag in the normal dynamics of earnings, since the nominal increase in manufacturing's gross wages in the first two months of the year totalled 6.6%, which is roughly the same as in the same period of 2006 (6.7%). The smallest nominal drop (-2%) was recorded in the group of business services (J, K), while financial intermediation was the only activity in which the gross wage saw a small rise. Gross wages in the group of production services (G, H, I) fell slightly more, by 2.5%. The nominal gross wage per employee in public services (L to O) fell by 1.1%. The decrease mainly reflected the fall in the average gross wage in health care. This sector usually records a slight decrease in the first two months of the year. In the two months to February, gross wages rose by 5.6% in nominal and by 3.1% in real terms after their relatively high level in January and the much lower level in February. The real increase in wages was equal to the one recorded in the same period last year. Within that, the gross wage per employee in the private sector rose by 6.8% in nominal and 4.3% in real terms, whereas wages in public services rose by a nominal 3.2% and by a real 0.8%. Graph: Nominal gross wage per employee by groups of activities Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Source of data: SORS, calculations by IMAD. Jan 2007 Manufacturing Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. 15 Selected economic indicators Growth rates, % Feb 2007/ Jan 2007 Feb 2007/ Feb 2006 Jan-Feb 2007/ Jan-Feb 2006 Jan-Dec 2006/ Jan-Dec 2005 Production value1 -2.1 11.1 10.6 7.0 - highly export-oriented industries'2 -3.8 14.7 13.7 7.7 - mainly export-oriented industries3 -0.3 10.8 11.2 8.8 - mainly domestic-market-oriented industries'4 -2.5 7.8 6.7 2.0 Average number of employees 0.3 0.9 0.7 -1.7 Labour productivity -2.4 10.1 9.8 8.9 Level of inventories5 1.7 5.0 4.9 1.8 Turnover5 -2.1 9.1 9.5 5.4 New orders5 -17.3 -2.9 4.3 5.5 Industrial producer prices 0.4 4.0 4.1 2.3 - producer prices/inflation 0.6 1.9 1.7 -0.2 Source of data: SORS; IMAD's calculations. Notes: real growth calculated on the basis of data on production value - SORS' recalculation with the IPI (provisional data); 2manufacturing industries (DG. DK. DM) which earn over 70% of their average net revenues from sales in foreign markets. according to data on Slovenian commercial companies from the AJPES (2005); Manufacturing industries (DB. DC. DD. DH. DJ. DL. DN) which earn 50% to 70% of their average net revenues from sales in foreign markets; Manufacturing industries (DA. DE. DF. DI) which earn less than 50% of their average net revenues from sales in foreign markets; 5real growth. Manufacturing's production activity continues to expand vigorously this year. According to the SORS' provisional data, the value of production increased by 8.0% in January over December, and by 0.4% if the data are seasonally and working-day adjusted. Due to the smaller number of working days in February, the monthly production activity declined that month (-2.1%); however, the seasonally and working-day adjusted data show a favourable increase of 0.5%. Robust growth is evidenced especially by year-on-year comparisons since the volume of industrial production rose by 10.6% in the first two months of the year compared with the same period of 2006. Growth stimuli are provided by both the international and domestic environment. In the first two months of 2007 compared with the same period of 2006, the turnover generated in the domestic market rose by a real 9.3% while the turnover generated in foreign markets increased by 9.6%. Specifically, the real increase in the turnover generated in the euro area totalled 8.9% while the increase in turnover generated in other foreign currency areas was 10.8%. The expansion in manufacturing is also reflected in the number of employees. Formal employment in manufacturing has grown for the sixth consecutive month, with the exception of the traditionally weaker December. In the first two months of 2007, 877 workers were hired anew (255 in January and 622 in February). Most new workers were hired in sub-industry DJ (manufacture of metals and metal products) where the number of employees rose by 750 from December (427 in January and 323 in February). This sub-industry, which already recorded massive hiring in 2006, thus employed 2,558 (6.2%) more workers in February 2007 than in the comparable month of 2006. In the two months to February, more than 100 new jobs also opened up in the manufacture of rubber and plastic products (DH), electrical and optical equipment (DL), chemical industry (DG), and transport equipment (DM). The manufacture of transport equipment has recorded a rise in employment for the ninth consecutive month and thus employed 833 or 7.4% more workers in February than a year ago. Despite the favourable employment trends in manufacturing, the substantial decline in the number of workers in the food (DA) and textile industries (DB) continues in 2007. Manufacturing companies expect the favourable trends to continue in the months ahead. According to the SORS' survey on business trends in manufacturing, the seasonally adjusted value of the confidence indicator rose by 2 p.p. in April over March, thus rebounding to its peak value. This increase was underpinned by all three components of the confidence indicator, i.e. export orders, the level of inventories, and production expectations. Graph: Manufacturing's industrial production 140 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 - - - ■ Trend / cy ries le and working-day adjus - Seasonally ted series i » i # \ it" y i * * r f i i i 4 4 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 < ro O ' VU Vf VU —' -. -J Vf Ä 11 Vf VU Vf- Source of data: SORS, IMAD's calculations using the Tramo-Seats method. < ro O Energy Sector Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. 16 Selected indicators, growth rates in % Jan-March 2006, GWh Jan-March 2007, GWh Jan-March 2007/ Jan-March 2006, % Production of electricity 3,253 3,464 6.5 Prod. in hydroelectric plants 570 590 3.6 Prod. in thermal plants 1,274 1,369 7.5 Prod. in nuclear power plant 1,409 1 ,504 6.7 Consumption of electricity 3,503 3,435 -1.9 Through distribution network 2,765 2,705 -2.2 Direct consumers 672 674 0.4 Transmission losses 66 56 -15.1 Net electricity exports -250 29 Source of data: ELES, Electricity Balance for March 2007; calculations by IMAD. Electricity production rose substantially in the first quarter of 2007, year on year, while electricity consumption even declined due to the warm weather. The production of thermal plants recorded the highest increase of 7.5%. The increase in the Krško Nuclear Plant's production was only slightly smaller (6.7%). In January and March, the nuclear plant's output was at the upper limit of its production capacity, which totals around 520 GWh per month. The nuclear production in Q1 this year was the second highest since the plant's opening - second only to the output in Q4 of 2006. The production of hydro-electric plants similarly increased (by 3.6%), and the total electricity production thus rose by 6.5%. In all categories of power plants, the increases in the volume of production were higher than planned in the national electricity balance for 2007. Thanks to the mild winter with above-average temperatures, the consumption of electricity declined year on year, which, according to ELES, has only happened a few times in the last ten years, and even then mostly to a smaller extent. A drop bigger than this year (-1.9%) was last achieved in Q1 of 1997, when electricity consumption fell by 3.4%. In contrast with the same period of 2006, the first quarter in 2007 witnessed net exports of electricity. The volume of both exports and imports of commercial electricity dropped; the former by 12.0%, the latter by 27.9%. While the decrease in imports reflected lower domestic consumption, the drop in exports can be attributed to the similar weather conditions in Europe which reduced the demand for electricity exports. The higher domestic production was therefore used to compensate for imports rather than to increase exports. Given the above production-consumption and exportimport developments, Slovenia was again a net exporter of electricity in Q1 (net exports comprised 0.8% of the production). In the same quarter of 2006, the situation was less favourable as Slovenia had to net import 250 GWh of electricity, which accounted for 7.1% of Slovenia's electricity consumption. Over the last few years, the year-on-year swings in quarterly electricity production have been more pronounced than the fluctuations in consumption (see the graph). While the quarterly growth of electricity consumption has not varied markedly in the last two years (except for the drop in the 06/07 winter season), the fluctuations in production growth were more pronounced. Production dropped by 8.1% in Q2 of 2005 due to the low river levels, which caused the production of hydro-electric plants to plummet by 30.2%. In Q3 of 2005, there was no regular maintenance outage of the nuclear power plant as the interval between the two consecutive outages was extended by six months. Year on year, the nuclear power plant's production rose by 49.9%, while total electricity production increased by 9.6%. The 4% decrease in production seen in Q2 of 2006 was again the result of the abovementioned postponement of the nuclear plant outage, whereas the 4% increase in the following quarter was due to the 32.0% surge in thermal plants' production levels. Graph: Year-on-year dynamics of electricity consumption and production, by quarter » Consumption Production Q1 2005 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2006 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2007 Source of data: ELES, Electricity balance, various issues, calculations by IMAD. 9 Transport Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. 17 Growth in % ected transport indicators Jan-Dec 2006 QIV 2006/ Jan-Dec 2006/ Jan-Dec 2005/ QIV 2005 Jan-Dec 2005 Jan-Dec 2004 Railways, in million passenger km 796 6.4 2.4 1.7 Roads1, in million passenger km 850 3.3 0.3 -13.4 Urban, in thousand passengers 93,953 -4.9 -3.4 -3.0 Air, in million passengers km 1,043 1.3 2.3 13.8 Airport, in thousand passengers 1,340 7.2 9.0 17.3 Railways, in million tonne km 3,373 5.4 3.9 3.3 Roads, in million tonne km 12,112 9.7 9.8 22.5 Maritime, in million tonne km 49,155 4.4 -6.4 41.7 Harbour, in thousand tonnes 15,461 17.0 22.5 4.7 Passenger transport Freight transport Source of data: SORS. Notes: 'excluding private transport of passengers by taxi, bus and car. In the final quarter of 2006, passenger transport saw the biggest increase in airport traffic and a decline in city bus transport. Within land passenger transport, city bus transport continued to decrease. The number of passengers transported by this mode of transport fell by 4.9% over the same quarter of 2005. Meanwhile, suburban and intercity bus transport increased by 3.3%. Although the annual increase in this mode totalled just 0.3%, it brought to a halt the sharp decline in the volume of this transport that had lasted for several years (-13.4% in 2005; -13.1 in 2004). The volume of passenger kilometres travelled in railway transport increased by 6.4% in Q4 of 2006. Airport traffic enjoyed the highest increase of 7.2% while air transport rose more modestly, by 1.3%. Throughout the year, the volume of passenger transport in airport traffic rose at a faster rate than in air transport. In both modes of transport, however, the increases were much lower than the year before (see the table). Freight transport saw a surge in harbour transport and an over 10% increase in road transport. The volume of rail freight transport picked up by 5.4% in the final quarter, year on year, while the volume of road freight transport rose even more, by 9.7%. Although road freight transport declined by a few per cent in Q3, its annual increase in 2006 still reached a high 9.8%, which contributed significantly to the total increase in the transport, storage, and communications sector (road freight transport generates almost a quarter of the value added in this sector). Maritime freight transport fell by 6.4% in 2006 after having surged by 41.7% in 2005 amid the boom in this branch. In the final quarter of 2006, the volume of maritime transport already rose by 4.4%, year on year. Harbour freight transport recorded the biggest increase in Q4, by 17.0%. It also enjoyed the highest annual growth within freight transport (22.5%). Road freight transport has been growing strongly in the past few years, including in 2006, due to the increasing international transport (see the graph). The volume of international road freight transport increased by 12.5% in 2006 while national road freight transport even fell by 3.5%. Within international transport, cross-trade transport and cabotage (transport performed in another country) recorded the highest increase of 16.4%. Measured in tonne kilometres, international transport comprised 81.2% of the total transport of goods by road while national transport totalled 18.8% of the total road freight transport (if the volume of transport is measured solely in tonnes of goods carried and the travelled distances are disregarded, national transport prevails with a 82.5% share). 56.3% of international transport was performed by companies, while slightly over 50% of national transport was carried out by sole entrepreneurs. Own-account transport comprised 3.0% of international transport and 31.1% of national transport (the rest was transport for hire or reward). Graph: Road freight transport in 2001-2006 □ International transport - cross-trade transport and cabotage □ International transport - goods unloaded in Slovenia E3 International transport - goods loaded in Slovenia □ National transport 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Sources of data: SORS, SI-STAT, Road freight transport, Slovenia, quarterly data. 2006 0 Trade in Agro-Food Products Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. 18 EUR m Imports Exports Balance (exports-imports) 2005 2006 06/05, Increase in % 2005 2006 06/05, Increase in % 2005 2006 Total trade in goods 15,802.4 18,311.6 15.9 14,397.1 16,760.6 16,4 -1,405.3 -1,551.0 agro-food products 1,022.8 1,181.0 15.5 416.0 517.2 24,3 -606.8 -663.8 Residues and waste; fodder 62.7 96.5 53.9 15.2 66.3 337.2 -47.5 -30.2 Dairy products, eggs, honey 46.3 68.9 48.9 65.3 86.2 32.0 19.0 17.3 Meat and edible offal 99.4 113.5 14.1 35.9 39.6 10.3 -63.6 -73.9 Beverages, spirits, and vinegar 52.6 67.1 27.7 63.5 64.1 1.0 10.9 -3.0 Edible fruit 102.3 97.9 -4.3 25.5 19.8 -22.4 -76.9 -78.1 Miscellaneous edible preparations 71.0 79.3 11.6 25.0 30.7 22.9 -46.1 -48.6 Grain, flour, starch, and milk preparations 69.8 75.2 7.8 22.5 23.9 6.3 -47.3 -51.4 Meat preparations 25.6 30.3 18.4 55.1 57.6 4.5 29.5 27.3 Sugar and sugar preparations 41.2 46.5 12.9 35.9 34.9 -2.9 -5.3 -11.6 Edible vegetables 61.9 74.3 20.0 4.5 5.0 9.7 -57.4 -69.3 Cereals 45.3 61.3 35.3 4.2 7.4 77.9 -41.2 -53.9 Vegetable and fruit preparations 50.9 56.3 10.5 12.4 11.3 -9.2 -38.5 -45.0 Cocoa and preparations 53.0 56.3 6.2 9.0 8.1 -10.4 -43.9 -48.2 Fats and oils, waxes 44.6 50.8 14.1 7.6 7.3 -4.4 -36.9 -43.5 Tobacco and substitutes 52.7 53.5 1.5 0.2 0.5 116.7 -52.5 -53.0 Source of data: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: agro-food products are classified in the groups 1-24 in the combined nomenclature of the customs tariff. The table shows the main groups according to merchandise trade in 2006, in this running _order. Data for 2006 are provisional._ Last year, the growth of trade in agro-food products exceeded the increase in the total trade in goods for the second consecutive year. According to provisional data, trade in agro-food totalled EUR 1,698.2 m, 18.0% more than in 2005 in nominal terms (meanwhile, the total trade in goods rose by 16.1%) and 49.8% more than five years ago (total trade in goods: 61.7%). Exports again rose faster than imports, this time the difference was 8.8 p.p. The total balance of trade in agro-food products nevertheless deteriorated by EUR 57 m last year because the share of exports in total trade was relatively low. As the overall trade balance deteriorated by EUR 145.7 m, the high contribution of the agro-food balance to the total negative balance shrank somewhat, from 43.2% to 42.8% (see the table). Looking at trade in individual product groups, developments in three areas deserve special attention: meat production and processing, milk processing, and the manufacture of beverages. Within the first group, exports of live animals rose notably in 2006 (by 175.3%), while much smaller increases were recorded in meat and meat preparations (by 10.3% and 4.5%, respectively), which is unfavourable with regard to achieving higher value added. The group of dairy products, eggs, and honey saw a relatively high increase in exports and an even higher rise in imports (by 32.0% and 48.9%, respectively). As a result, the otherwise positive balance of this group deteriorated again. The traditionally positive balance in the group of beverages, spirits, and vinegar turned negative last year. Only five years ago, it still totalled EUR 70.6 m, which was by far the highest positive balance among all groups of agro-food products. Before Slovenia's independence, the production of both dairy products and beverages relied heavily on the markets of former Yugoslavia. After the loss of these markets, producers only partially replaced them with new ones. An overview of trade by country shows that trade with the EU-15 countries rebounded strongly. Trade with these countries comprised as much as 62.2% of the total trade in these goods (41.6% five years ago). Compared with the year before, it rose by 22.8% (imports by 18.3%, exports by 39.7%). Meanwhile, trade with the EU-9 rose by a mere 3.3% (imports fell by 9.5% while exports surged by 163.7%) whereas trade with the countries of former Yugoslavia rose by 3.2% (imports were up 13% while exports decreased by 1.3%). Trade with the rest of the world rose considerably, by 37.7% (imports by 40.3%, exports by 30.4%), yet it nevertheless still comprised only a minor proportion of the total trade in agro-food products (see the graph). Graph: Trade in agro-food products by groups of countries in 2001, 2005, and 2006 1,200 1,000 n io 800 - Ë 600 (T U E 400 - 200 EU 15 EX YU ^^m EU 9* Other countries 2001 imports 2005 imports 2006 imports 2001 exports 2005 exports Source of data: SORS, calculations by IMAD. Note: *countries that joined the EU in 2004 (excluding Slovenia). 2006 exports 0 Selected Topics Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 pp. 19-32 Agriculture - Forecasting the Changes in Value Added Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. 21 share* in % 2006 2007 Production volume, growth rates in %, 2005 = 100 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Standard direct payment scheme - implemented in Slovenia until 2007 wheat 3.1 6.2 7.2 8.1 8.9 9.7 10.4 11.0 11.6 maize 4.5 2.3 6.1 9.9 13.8 17.7 21.8 25.9 30.2 barley 0.9 -10.1 -6.0 -2.0 2.0 6.1 10.3 14.6 19.0 sugar beet 1.1 7.4 -4.7 -11.4 -12.4 -13.7 -15.2 -16.8 -18.5 milk - dairy cows 24.5 0.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 cattle 16.8 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.8 pigs 12.9 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 poultry 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 sheep and goats 1.0 4.1 6.6 8.8 10.6 12.0 12.8 13.2 13.0 eggs - egg-laying hens 2.6 -1.3 -2.6 -4.0 -5.3 -6.7 -8.0 -9.4 -10.9 Single area payment scheme - payment of uniform amounts per eligible agricultural land wheat 3.1 6.2 8.9 10.4 11.9 13.3 14.6 16.0 17.3 maize 4.5 2.3 5.0 8.1 11.3 14.4 17.6 20.9 24.1 barley 0.9 -10.1 -6.0 -3.0 -0.1 2.8 5.8 8.8 11.8 sugar beet 1.1 7.4 -4.7 -10.8 -11.1 -11.8 -12.5 -13.4 -14.5 milk - dairy cows 24.5 -0.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 cattle 16.8 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.7 -1.4 -2.2 -3.0 pigs 12.9 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 poultry 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 sheep and goats 1.0 4.1 9.8 12.6 15.2 17.5 19.2 20.4 21.2 eggs - egg-laying hens 2.6 -1.3 -2.6 -4.0 -5.3 -6.7 -8.0 -9.4 -10.8 Sources of data: SORS, Agricultural Institute of Slovenia, FAPRI; calculations by IMAD. Note: 'percentage of product in total net agricultural production at basic prices in 2003. A new paper entitled 'Forecasting the Changes of Value Added in Slovenian Agriculture in the Current Medium-term Period', written by Mateja Kovač, Emil Erjavec, and Stane Kavčič has been published in the IMAD Working Papers series. The authors have constructed a methodology for forecasting changes in agricultural developments in response to prices and agricultural policy. We have constructed a national sector model designed to estimate the annual growth rates of value added in agriculture. The model is based on two existing tools. The first tool was developed to estimate changes in agricultural producers' income after Slovenia's accession to the EU. We have used this tool to estimate production volumes. The second tool is a database that provides ample data on the ratios in agricultural production. We have used it to estimate intermediate consumption. We have prepared annual growth forecasts for ten agricultural products in the current medium-term period for three selected agricultural policy scenarios. The analysed products are wheat, maize, barley, sugar beet, milk, cattle, pigs, poultry, sheep and goats, and eggs. In total, these products comprise around three-quarters of the net agricultural production value. As a comparison to the standard direct payments scheme, which was implemented in Slovenia until 2007, we examined the effect of adopting the regional single payment scheme, and the effect of a hypothetical full liberalisation of trade in agricultural products. The results show that the total volume of the analysed production would increase only if the standard scheme continued to be implemented or if the regional scheme was adopted (see the table), while it would decrease in the circumstances of a liberalised market. The total volume of crops would increase in all three scenarios, largely due to the further rising of production intensity. The total number of livestock and hence meat production would increase under the standard and partly under the regional scheme while it would decrease in free-market conditions. The overall value added of the analysed production would face a nominal drop under all three models (see the graph). By 2013, it would fall by around a quarter in the circumstances of the standard scheme and by around half in the single payment scheme. According to the free market model, its value would turn negative after 2010 when production costs would already exceed the value of production as a result of the significantly lower product prices and the abolition of agricultural subsidies. Graph: Overall value added of the ten analysed agricultural products in 2005-2013 60,000 « 50,000 '5. 40,000 O CO fl 30,000 C o 20,000 ? 10,000 1- 0 U) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Sources of data: SORS, Agricultural Institute of Slovenia, FAPRI, IMAD. 10,000 2012 2013 Labour Market - Employment of Foreigners in Slovenia Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. 22 Work permits for foreigners 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Average annual number of valid work permits for foreigners 38,229 35,303 39,695 39,707 41,598 48,280 Temporary personal work permits 2,853 5,097 5,982 6,151 6,168 5,974 Permanent personal work permits 13,314 11,372 13,659 15,718 17,937 22,195 Employment permits 19,353 14,423 12,789 12,208 12,113 12,914 Permits for work 2,709 4,412 7,266 5,629 5,381 7,196 Work permits issued during the year 47,200 30,257 34,143 31,184 32,254 44,582 Personal work permits 15,256 3,710 3,843 6,431 5,342 8,154 permanent 10,652 1 ,856 2,163 2,673 2,352 6,104 - for self-employment 238 586 626 699 1,309 1 ,325 - other 4,366 1 ,268 1 ,054 3,059 1,681 725 Employment permits 25,753 17,775 16,495 16,333 17,989 24,003 new 4,557 2,053 2,668 2,694 3,716 6,162 - renewed 21,196 15,722 13,827 13,639 14,273 17,841 Permits for work 6,191 8,772 13,805 8,420 8,923 12,425 - posted workers 2,115 1 ,395 1 ,599 1,394 1,079 824 ■ managers/representatives 839 569 71 0 890 1,589 1 ,638 - seasonal agricultural labour 1 ,382 1 ,652 1 ,840 1,118 1,311 1 ,491 - seasonal construction labour 1 ,293 3,809 8,148 3,665 3,465 5,907 other 562 1 ,347 1 ,508 1,353 1 ,479 2,565 Foreigners registered during the year who do not need a work permit 973 3,274 3,530 2,205 2,344 2,577 Source of data: ESS; calculations of annual averages by IMAD. The employment and work of foreigners in Slovenia is regulated by the Employment and Work of Aliens Act, which entered into force in January 20011. This law replaced the old law from 1992 and redefined the terms for the employment and work of foreigners in Slovenia. It strengthened the regulatory role of the state concerning the inflow of foreign workers, and simplified the procedures for the issuing of the more permanent work permits to foreigners who have been living and working in Slovenia for a longer period of time. The amendments from 2005 were adopted primarily to correct certain provisions that had previously allowed misuse of the law (notably provisions on self-employment of foreigners, cross-border provision of services by foreign companies via posted workers, seasonal labour of foreigners, and permission for the work performed by foreign company representatives). The amended bill, intended to shorten and simplify the procedures for the work and employment of foreigners, especially those with qualifications that are lacking or non-existent in the Slovenian labour market, is currently in the legislative procedure. According to this law, a foreigner is employed in the Republic of Slovenia when s/he has concluded a contract-based employment relationship with an employer that has their head office or residence in Slovenia, or when s/he accordingly holds the status of a self-employed person. The work of foreigners as defined by this law includes the provision of services carried out by foreigners, and other types of foreigners' work based on employment contracts or other civil law contracts carried out on the Slovenian territory for a fixed period of time. As a rule, foreigners may only work in Slovenia on the basis of a work permit. Only exceptionally are they allowed to work here on the basis of a work notification alone. Work permits are issued as personal work permits, employment permits or permits for work. A personal work permit is a renewable or permanent work permit that grants foreigners free access to the labour market. The only exceptions are the personal work permits with a validity of 1 See OG-66/2000, OG-101/2005, and OG-4/2006. one year issued for the representation of a foreigner's own company or for sole entrepreneurs. An employment permit depends on the needs of specific employers. It is normally issued for one year, solely upon the request of the employer, provided that the employer fulfils the statutory conditions, including the provision that the hiring of a foreigner should not have an adverse effect on the domestic unemployment situation. A permit for work allows a foreigner to work in Slovenia for a limited period of time defined in advance and depending on the purpose for which the permit is issued. This purpose may be: (i) training and advanced training of foreigners; (ii) seasonal labour of foreigners; (iii) work performed by posted workers; (iv) work performed by foreign managers; and individual services of foreigners. A work permit is issued to a foreigner upon the request of his/her employer or the appropriate legal entity laid down by law. The provisions of this law do not apply to certain categories of foreigners. These include the citizens of all EU member states. According to a government decision, the principle of reciprocity laid down in Article 3 of the law no longer applies for these countries from 25 May 2006. Thereby all citizens of EU countries and their family members were granted equal status as the Slovenian citizens. The ESS manages the database of these citizens. The law also introduced quotas and other restrictions regarding the granting of work permits. The government of RS adopts the employment policy for foreigners which serves as the basis for the conclusion of international agreements on the conditions for the cross-country movement of workers and services; it adopts the measures aimed at protecting the domestic labour market; and, in line with immigration policy and considering the situation and trends in the labour market, it defines the annual quota of work permits whereby it limits the number of foreigners in the labour market each year. This quota must not exceed 5% of Slovenia's active population. The quota excludes: (i) nationals of EU countries whose status in the labour market is the same as that of Slovenian nationals; (ii) foreigners for Labour Market - Employment and Work of Foreigners in Slovenia Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. 23 whom work permits are not required by this law; (iii) foreigners with personal work permits; (iv) representatives; and foreign posted workers on advanced training. In addition to the quota, the government may also restrict or ban the employment of foreigners in certain regions, industries, companies, and professions. Further, it may restrict or ban the inflow of new foreign workers entirely from specific regions when that is justified by a public or general economic interest. The actual quota defined each year by government decree is well below 5%. The 'Decree laying down the work permit quota for 2006' permitted only 17,350 permits counted in the quota with regard to the type of work permit and with regard to the vocational, educational, and other characteristics of those foreigners to whom quotas apply. This figure corresponded to 1.9% of the formally employed population in 2006. The decree for 2007 has raised the allowed quota to 18,500 work permits. The number of work permits issued to foreigners rose strongly in 2006 and 2007. According to ESS' data, the average number of valid work permits in 2006 was 16.1% higher than in 2005, while the number of permits issued during the year rose by as much as 12,328 (38.2%) over the previous year and by 37.1% in comparison with the 20012005 average (see the table). These permits corresponded to 5.3% of the formally employed population (the employed and self-employed) in Slovenia. By 31 March 2007, the number of valid work permits rose to 54,662. The largest increase was recorded in the number of permanent personal work permits. These permits were granted to foreigners who have been living and working in Slovenia for a longer period of time. These permits also comprise the highest proportion in the structure of valid permits. Among the work permits issued during the year, employment permits predominate (see the table). According to the ESS, the increase in the volume of these permits recorded in 2006 is largely explained by the simplified terms of granting employment permits in cases covered by the new 'Rules on procedures and evidence concerning decisions on issuing employment permits where the employment of an alien does not relate to the labour market due to the nature of work' (OG-70/2006). The increase in the number of permits for work was largely the Graph: Education structure of foreigners working in Slovenia, on 30 June result of the higher demand for seasonal construction workers (their number surged by as much as 70% from 2005 to 2006). Most work permits are issued in construction and for construction occupations. This applies to all types of permits, while in the overall number of work permits, construction and construction occupations comprise around half of the known professions and sectors. Other visible professions in the vocational structure include metal-processing workers (around 10%) and mechanics and machinery operators (around 5%), while the other two largest sectors are manufacturing and business services (around 16% and 8%, respectively). The education structure of foreigners employed in Slovenia is accordingly low. However, the share of employed foreigners with a primary education is decreasing in favour of secondary educated workers. Among the workers whose education is known, 59.7% had a primary education on 30 June 2006 (64.1% in 2001) while 35.7% had a secondary education (31.1% in 2001). Only around 5% of foreign nationals working in Slovenia have a higher education. Most work permits are still issued to citizens from the countries of former Yugoslavia. Among these, nationals of Bosnia and Herzegovina predominate. Their number is still rising (it totalled 23,991 on 30 June 2006, equalling 46.9% of all foreign nationals employed in Slovenia). The number of Macedonian, Serbian and Montenegrin nationals is similarly growing while the number of Croatian workers, which totalled 7,189 or 14.0% of all foreigners employed in Slovenia on 30 June 2006, is declining. The total share of all nationals from the countries of former Yugoslavia is slowly decreasing. In 2005 and 2006, there was a large increase in the share of EU nationals, which is nevertheless still very low (around 6%). The share of foreign workers from other parts of the world has traditionally been even lower (around 5%). Foreign workers in Slovenia are mostly male. Their average age is 40 years and has hardly changed in the last few years. There are only around 15% of women. Around 60% of foreigners are 25-44 years old. Less than 10% are younger than 25, while close to a third are older than 45. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% □ Unknown Higher □ Secondary □ Primary 2001 2002 2003 Source of data: 2004 calculations by IMAD. 2005 2006 International Student Mobility Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. 24 Foreign students in selected countries Students abroad Students from other EU- 25 countries, EEA, or Students from abroad3 Students4 studying in candidate countries1 as as % of all students another EU-25, EEA or Share of students % of all students2 studying in selected candidate country1 as studying abroad3 (%) studying in selected countries % of all students countries 2000 2004 2000 2004 2000 2004 2000 2004 Cyprus 4.0 3.7 19.4 32.0 46.5 54.8 53.7 57.0 Ireland 2.4 2.6 N/A 7.6 9.4 8.5 9.6 11.7 Malta 1.7 1.7 5.6 5.6 8.2 8.4 9.1 8.9 Slovakia 0.6 0.5 1.2 1.0 3.0 8.2 3.4 8.6 Greece N/A 2.0 6.0 7.0 12.4 7.3 12.8 7.6 Austria 9.2 12.5 13.7 14.1 3.8 5.3 4.3 6.2 Estonia 1.3 0.9 1.6 N/A 2.5 3.5 N/A 3.9 Finland 0.8 1.0 2.1 2.6 3.2 2.9 3.5 3.2 Portugal 0.6 0.7 3.0 4.1 2.3 2.7 2.5 3.1 Belgium 6.6 7.1 N/A 9.6 2.4 2.6 2.6 3.0 Denmark 2.6 3.5 6.8 7.9 2.7 2.5 3.2 3.0 Lithuania 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 1.8 2.3 2.1 2.7 Sweden 4.2 4.5 7.4 8.5 2.7 2.2 4.1 3.0 EU-25 2.4 2.6 5.0 6.5 2.1 2.1 N/A N/A Slovenia 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 2.2 2.1 2.5 2.4 France 2.0 2.4 0.4 N/A 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.5 Germany 5.1 5.7 9.1 11.2 1.8 1.9 2.3 2.7 Czech Rep. 1.2 2.8 2.2 4.7 1.3 1.8 1.7 2.2 Netherlands 1.6 2.3 2.9 3.9 1.9 1.8 2.3 2.2 Italy 0.7 0.8 1.4 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.9 Latvia 0.4 0.6 6.6 N/A 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.9 Hungary N/A 2.0 3.2 3.1 1.7 1.5 2.2 1.9 Spain 0.4 0.6 N/A 12.9 1.1 1.2 N/A 1.4 Poland 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.4 UK 5.9 5.1 11.0 16.2 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.0 Luxembourg 24.5 N/A N/A N/A 74.5 N/A N/A 0.0 Source of data: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Notes: The analysis covers tertiary-education students. 'Candidate countries are Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, and Turkey. 2The total number of students studying in a given country includes both home and foreign students. The lacking data regarding the nationality of students result in unreliable values for some countries. 3Students from abroad include students from the EU, the EEA, the USA, Japan, Croatia, Macedonia, Turkey, Switzerland, and Albania. 4The numerator of this indicator comprises students who study in another EU-25 country, the EEA, or a candidate country, whereas the denominator comprises students (home and foreign) studying in selected countries. 5The numerator comprises students studying abroad while the denominator includes students studying at home and those studying abroad, whereas foreign students in selected countries are not included. The indicator measures the percentage of home nationality students from a given country _studying abroad._ Student mobility is one of the aspects of international mobility in tertiary education. In international studies, the latter is defined more broadly than student mobility and includes the mobility of university teachers and researchers, the implementation of study programmes, the establishment of higher education institutions abroad, etc. (OECD: Education policy Analysis: Focus on Higher Education, 20052006). However, comparable international data are currently only available for students and (partly) for teachers. International student mobility benefits both the home and the host countries of students who go studying abroad. Student mobility is one of the contributing factors to higher quality of studies. Indirectly, it is also one of the drivers of innovation and economic growth. Foreign students can help fill the vacant places in those study programmes for which home students in the host country show (too) little interest. Thereby, universities can keep the programmes which would otherwise have to be abandoned. For students coming from countries where the available range of study programmes is limited, studying abroad offers an opportunity to acquire knowledge that is not accessible at home. This also creates benefits for the home country, provided that the students return home. If they decide to work elsewhere after completing the studies, the home country will have little benefit from their knowledge acquired abroad. At the individual level, student mobility can generate various benefits that are not strictly related with the acquired professional knowledge. These include proficiency in foreign languages and personal development (a positive attitude to foreign cultures, greater tolerance, flexibility etc.)1. The acquired characteristics can significantly contribute to the success of graduates when looking for work and during their career development. On the other hand, students who decide to study abroad may face problems regarding the recognition of qualifications in their home country. In order to increase the percentage of foreign students in Slovenia, the opening up of universities must continue alongside the raising of the quality of 1 Bracht et al.: The Professional Value of Erasmus Mobility, 2006. This study showed that studying abroad produces positive effects for knowledge acquisition. However, the difference between those students who study abroad and those who do not is not as large as with other types of effects. International Student Mobility Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. 25 studies. The share of foreign students in Slovenia reached 1.1% in 2004 (0.9% in 2003), which is one of the lowest corresponding shares in the EU-25. The highest shares that year were recorded in the UK, Austria, Spain, and Cyprus (see the table). In Slovenia, this share rose marginally in 2000-2004. It is evident that in comparison with other EU-25 countries, Slovenia is an unfriendly destination for foreign students. In order to achieve one of the objectives set in Slovenia's Development Strategy - to attract foreign students to study at Slovenian universities - Slovenia should, in addition to the abovementioned factors, improve several other factors that determine the proportion of foreign students in the country: - access to student loans and grants; - quotas for foreign students (the highest possible number of foreign students); - the attractiveness and quality of study programmes offered in Slovenia in comparison with the students' home country and other countries, including access to foreign teachers and subjects taught in a foreign language; - successful promotion; - accommodation and part-time job possibilities of foreign students, etc. The mobility of Slovenian students in the EU-25 countries, candidate countries, and the EEA is at the average EU level yet lower than in some other small countries. The mobility of students, teachers, and research staff within Europe is one of the factors fostering the development of the European labour market (European Commission, Progress towards the Lisbon objectives in education and training, 2006). In Slovenia, the share of students studying in another EU-25 country, the EEA, or candidate country reached 2.1% in 2004 (2.4% in 2003), which is the same as the EU-25 average (2.1% in 2003) but less than in some other countries with a small population size (Cyprus, Malta, Ireland, Slovakia). These countries are among the member states with the highest shares of students studying abroad (see the table). In small countries, the high percentage of students abroad may also be linked to the limited supply of study programmes in the home country. Slovenia also has a low percentage of students from other EU-25 countries, the EEA, or candidate countries, which totalled 0.7% of all students in 2004 (0.6% in 2003). Most foreign students come to Slovenia from the countries of former Yugoslavia. In 2004, there were 1,108 foreign students in Slovenia. Within that, 83.5% were from the countries of former Yugoslavia (45.6% from Croatia, 19.5% from Bosnia and Herzegovina, 12.1% from Serbia and Montenegro, and 6.3% from Macedonia), which are linked to Slovenia by historical and linguistic ties as well as geographical proximity. This percentage rose somewhat in 2000-2004, by 3.4 p.p. The share of students from other EU-25 countries totalled 9.7% in 2004, while 6.8% of foreign students came from the rest of the world. The bulk of Slovenian students abroad study in another EU-25 country. The number of Slovenian students abroad is roughly twice as high as the number of foreign students in Slovenia. It totalled 2,527 students in 2004 (2,095 in 2000). Within that, 83.3% of Slovenian students studied in another EU-25 country, mostly in the old member states. The most frequent destinations were Germany (24.9%), Austria (24.5%), Italy (12.9%), and the UK (10.5%). 8.3% of students studied in the USA. Eurostat's existing indicators of student mobility still exhibit a number of shortcomings. Eurostat defines mobile students as students with a foreign nationality, which means that the definition includes permanent residents with a foreign nationality. However, the latter cannot be regarded as mobile students since they do not change their country of study. Eurostat is trying to remove this deficiency by developing a new series of data on students who are non-residents of the country in which they study (available only for 2004). For Slovenia, we can first calculate the proportion of non-resident students relative to the total number of students for 2004. Data show that this percentage is low (0.9%; see the graph). The second weakness of the existing methodology is the fact that students studying abroad only include students enrolled on a certain day, whereas the actual number of students may be different because some students stay abroad for just a few months. Graph: Non-resident students - as a % of the total number of students in selected countries, 2004 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 I I s ur ia lra EE ia D e g . do ts C ar y ts u 3 TO u E re C ni A O v A * a F ra n e iu d igl E e el n w CÛ e S D CO D Sources of data: Eurostat; OCED, Education at a glance 2006; calculations by IMAD. Note: the analysis includes countries with available data for 2004. Structural Changes in Network Industries -Effects of Liberalisation Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. 26 Market shares of the largest operators m individual network industry markets in 20051 Market of network industries Market share, in % Basis for calculation Largest operator Production market of electricity 51 Production in GWh HSE Supply of electricity to eligible customers 34 Supply in GWh HSE - users with annual consumption above 2.00 GWh 36 Supply in GWh HSE - users with annual consumption 0.05-2.00 GWh 34 Supply in GWh Elektro Ljubljana - users with annual consumption up to 0.05 GWh 37 Supply in GWh Elektro Ljubljana Wholesale natural gas market 99 Sales in Sm3 Geoplin Retail natural gas market for all customers 72 Supply in Sm3 Geoplin - users with annual consumption above 1 m Sm3 90 Supply in Sm3 Geoplin - users with annual consumption 4,500-1 m Sm3 23 Supply in Sm3 Energetika Ljubljana - users with annual consumption up to 4,500 Sm3 39 Supply in Sm3 Energetika Ljubljana Transport by rail 100 Physical volume of transport Slovenske železnice Provision of postal services 83 Revenues Pošta Slovenije Fixed telephony, national calls, residents 99 Call minutes Telekom Slovenije Fixed telephony, international calls, residents 89 Call minutes Telekom Slovenije Broadband Internet access 56 Number of connections Siol Mobile telephony 72 Number of active users Mobitel Sources of data: AGEN-RS, APEK. Note: 1data for telecommunication markets are for mid-2006. A new working paper entitled Structural Changes in Network Industries - Effects of Liberalisation, written by Rotija Kmet Zupančič and Jure Povšnar, has been published within the IMAD Working Papers series. The authors present the implemented reforms in this area and their realisation in Slovenia. Using selected indicators such as the share of state ownership, market structure, price developments, productivity, and employment, they evaluate the first results of the opening up of these markets to competition._ The liberalisation of network industries holds an important place among the structural reforms aimed to boost the competitiveness of the economy. In the past, network industries were characterised by strong state monopolies (telecommunications, energy, transport), especially in Europe. The process of the opening up of European network industries to competition intensified in the 1990s and gained additional impetus from the Lisbon Strategy whose aim is to increase the competitiveness of European economies. The European Commission estimates that, despite the considerable progress that has been made towards the liberalisation of network industries in the EU over the last few years, there are still a number of factors that hinder a faster development of competition. At the same time, the first results of liberalisation have already translated into a higher efficiency of these industries. In the last five years, Slovenia has also carried out a thorough reform of the legislative framework that provides the legal basis for the liberalisation of network activities. The process of harmonising the Slovenian legislation with the EU regulations aimed at liberalising the network industry markets started around 2000. Another critical year was 2004, which saw the adoption of the Electronic Communications Act, the amended Energy Act, and the Resolution on the National Energy Programme, whereby the latest EU guidelines about the development of network industries were transposed into the national regulations. In most industries, the enacted regulations today provide the appropriate framework for the development of these markets in line with the EU directives, or they are continually updated with the new changes as they occur in the EU.Beside the high concentration of suppliers, one of the main barriers to entering the markets is the rather slow implementation of legislation, which is often due to the initial difficulties of the newly established regulatory authorities. The entry of competitors to the electricity market is hindered primarily by the high concentration of suppliers, the non-market allocation of cross-border transmission capacity, and the insufficient separation between system operators and suppliers. The natural gas market is characterised by a high concentration of suppliers in the wholesale market and retail market for large consumers. Long-term contracts for the take-up of natural gas are the main obstacle to the development of this market. The telecommunications market witnessed major progress towards liberalisation in the last two years, when some important competition barriers such as delays in the area of network interconnections, local loop unbundling, and number portability were removed. The competition in the postal services market is limited by the relatively high level of the reserved segment of universal postal services. The liberalisation of this market is still in its early phase in the EU in general. Slovenia also still has just one railway operator and is somewhat late in the implementation of EU directives in this field. The privatisation of state-owned operators, which also has an important role in boosting the effectiveness of service provision, has mostly not been carried out yet. In the electricity supply sector, the state was the only owner of the electricity transmission company and a major owner of distribution companies as well as all large electricity production plants except the nuclear plant in 2005. The state is also the biggest owner (with a 31% ownership share) of the largest natural gas supplier, whereas gas distribution companies are mainly owned by domestic legal entities or municipalities. The only Slovenian railway operator is owned entirely by the Structural Changes in Network Industries -Effects of Liberalisation Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. 27 state, as is the provider of universal postal services. The privatisation of the leading fixed telephony operator, 62.5% of which is owned by the state, has also yet to be carried out. Market structure indicators show that competition has been emerging slowly in most network industries; where positive shifts have recently been made, the share of the incumbent operator is still relatively high (see the table). Within telecommunications, fixed telephony (national calls) remains the least liberalised segment. Although the number of operators in this market, which was monopolised until recently, has risen to four, the market share of the incumbent operator still totalled 99% in the middle of 2006. Only one operator currently provides services in the third generation mobile telephony market, although two new licences were granted in 2006. Competition is stronger in the markets of international calls in fixed telephony, Internet access, and mobile telephony, however the shares of the biggest providers in international fixed telephony and mobile telephony are still relatively high. Looking at the energy market, there is still a high concentration rate of electricity suppliers in the production and wholesale markets, whereas competition has been established in the retail market where no supplier holds the dominant position. There is no real competition in the natural gas wholesale market where the incumbent supplier owned 99% of the market in 2005. However, competition exists in the retail sale of natural gas. Among the providers of postal services, more than 80% of revenue is still generated by the provider of universal services, while there is only one provider of railway services in Slovenia. The price developments in network industries (see the graph) already partly reflect the emerging competitive market structure, but they are to some extent also the result of price setting in the past and other factors. The decline in the relative prices (relative to CPI) of telecommunication services observed from 2002 onwards came to a halt in 2006. This halt was Graph: Evolution of prices in network industries (indices relative to the CPI) caused by the increase in the incumbent operator's prices of telephone subscriptions and national calls in fixed telephony, which shows that the market power of competitors in this market is still low although they mostly offer cheaper services. The prices of mobile telephony and international calls in fixed telephony have been falling since 2003 as a result of competition. Electricity prices are for the time being determined by the market only for industry, whereas household electricity prices will be liberalised in June 2007. Industrial prices have recorded a downward trend relative to the average EU price since 1999, which may, for the period after July 2001 when the market was liberalised, be partly attributed to stronger competition in this market; in addition, consumers are increasingly switching providers. Household electricity prices relative to the CPI have recorded a falling trend since 2000. In comparison with the EU average, however, they have persisted at a level around 80%. The productivity gains in some industries already partly reflect the increase in competition. This is particularly the case in telecommunications, where data on the joined post and telecommunications industry indicate a relatively high increase in productivity since 2000 (compared with the previous five-year period and with the entire service sector) matched by an increase in employment, which can to some extent be explained by the effects of the opening up of the telecommunications market on streamlined operation on one hand and on the expansion of the market on the other. Data on electricity supply for the last five years do not show any improvement in productivity relative to all commercial companies although a rationalisation of the number of employees has clearly taken place. In railway transport and in postal and courier services, where the liberalisation process has also only just started, the increases in productivity are explained by the preparation for the anticipated major changes in market competitiveness rather than to such changes already taking place. \ ■ ' ----082 Telephone serv ices : ' ' \ and products ' v \ \ IV f\ ■ 1 ** % " \ ■ * v j? s Source of data: SORS, SI-STAT; calculations by IMAD. 180 170 160 0 0 150 0 0 0 140 2 yar 130 n 120 110 100 90 -081 Postal serv ices -0731 Railway passenger transport -0452 Gas 110 95 90 85 Life Satisfaction Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. 28 Satisfaction1 with life in the EU2 (in %) Happiness3 with house or flat with quality of life with local travel facilities with standard of living with health with leisure time with local medical services with local shopping facilities with local schools with leisure facilities with local childcare facilities with local job opportunities Denmark 97 94 93 85 95 89 77 68 88 69 74 66 52 Netherlands 95 97 92 93 94 90 83 91 84 67 80 42 53 Belgium 94 94 92 87 90 89 79 94 81 88 69 65 53 Ireland 94 94 94 71 92 90 79 79 84 78 63 43 53 Sweden 94 94 93 77 94 85 75 69 64 57 76 46 34 Luxembourg 93 94 95 87 95 87 77 88 62 74 66 62 50 Finland 93 95 95 83 88 83 78 70 80 78 75 65 47 UK 92 93 88 79 93 88 76 83 80 62 64 30 36 Spain 90 91 89 79 84 86 77 78 80 71 65 58 45 France 90 89 88 81 76 86 69 85 75 78 62 63 31 Malta 90 96 94 76 87 87 71 73 87 66 46 28 23 Slovenia 89 91 90 76 83 80 75 74 73 82 67 72 37 EU-25 87 92 86 78 83 84 74 77 78 71 60 55 38 Czech Rep. 87 90 83 81 82 85 80 75 70 77 62 72 33 Cyprus 87 91 85 68 84 86 66 63 69 90 52 78 38 Poland 86 91 79 80 76 76 73 64 80 78 43 55 22 Portugal 86 89 81 72 75 79 74 58 66 73 48 56 23 EU-27 85 91 85 76 81 84 73 76 78 70 59 54 37 Italy 84 93 85 65 85 91 75 68 71 70 51 56 45 Germany 82 93 88 79 85 81 72 85 83 66 68 61 43 Austria 81 90 90 85 84 82 76 93 88 76 73 71 66 Greece 80 88 77 76 84 85 68 56 71 72 47 53 23 Slovakia 77 89 75 71 70 79 68 65 69 73 38 62 28 Estonia 75 78 78 77 68 72 72 63 70 70 62 59 36 Lithuania 74 69 70 74 59 70 66 53 74 68 44 47 34 Latvia 72 67 77 77 53 67 71 58 79 62 39 46 30 Hungary 68 86 73 74 64 71 69 77 79 74 46 61 26 Romania 60 86 70 57 63 73 66 54 73 62 40 35 26 Bulgaria 39 71 42 38 31 58 55 43 69 51 31 42 16 Source of data: Eurostat. Notes: 1the data include respondents who answered that the listed aspects of life were either 'very satisfactory' or 'fairly satisfactory'. 2A total of 26,755 EU citizens and Bulgarian and Romanian citizens aged over 15 were interviewed between 17 November and 19 December 2006. However, since the survey was carried out before Romania and Bulgaria joined the EU, the socio-demographic analysis is based on the EU-25 average. 3The data include respondents who answered they were either 'quite happy' or 'very happy' when asked the following question: 'Taking all things together would you say you are very happy, quite happy, not very happy or not at all happy?'. At the end of 2006, the European Commission trends and positionings. launched a special survey on the social realities in The IMAD has already included opinion indicators the EU-25 and in Romania and Bulgaria that were at in its Human Development Report, Development that time about to join the EU. In February 2007, the Report, and Social Overview. The latter provides an EC published the report 'European Social Reality' which in-depth analysis of the living conditions in Slovenia, presents subjective perceptions about the life of systematically examines the indicators of social European Union citizens. Opinion indicators are a vital cohesion and social capital and life satisfaction, and part of any comprehensive assessment of people's addresses the issue of a long-living society (SEM satisfaction with their living conditions. Therefore, 12/2006: 5-6). The topics included in the Social increasingly many such surveys are being carried out. In Overview largely overlap with the issues examined by addition to the Eurobarometer's survey presented in this the European Social Reality survey. article, we should mention the surveys of the European The European Social Reality survey is divided into Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working three parts: the first part focuses on the life Conditions (Eurofound; see SEM 12/2004: 24-25), the satisfaction of EU citizens, the second part European Social Survey (ESS), etc. Since these addresses people's perceptions regarding the surveys are methodologically incomparable (e.g. in future, while the third part analyses people's terms of the countries included, the formulation of opinions about important EU issues such as questions, the sets of possible responses), direct poverty and exclusion, migration, financing comparisons cannot be made. We can only speak about pensions, and equal access to higher education. Life Satisfaction Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. 29 The life satisfaction indicator is synthetic and multidimensional (see e.g. SEM 12/2004: 24-25; SEM 3/2006: 18; Social Overview 2006; Development Report 2007). In this survey, it includes the aspects of work, family, leisure time, etc. (see the table). The survey also examines people's confidence in the future of pensions and inquires about their happiness (an indicator often used synonymously with the life satisfaction indicator). The results of the survey show that most (87%) European citizens are happy. Denmark has the highest percentage of happy people (97%), followed by the Netherlands (95%), Belgium, Ireland, and Sweden (94%). The least happy people in the EU-25 live in Hungary (68%) and in the Baltic States, while Romania (60%) and Bulgaria (39%) are at the tail end in the EU-27. Slovenia with 89% of happy citizens scores just above the EU average (87%), after Malta (90%) and ahead of Cyprus (87%). Slovenia is ranked highest among the post-social ist EU countries. Slovenia occupied the same position in the life satisfaction indicator of the European Social Survey 2004 (see Development Report 2007). In comparison with the EU average, Slovenians exhibit above-average satisfaction with the quality of life, available time and leisure-time facilities, local schools, and childcare facilities (see the graph). The latter is a notable standout result since only Cyprus and Belgium have higher school satisfaction rates while only Cypriots are more satisfied with their childcare services. Slovenians are most unsatisfied with local job opportunities, although Slovenia scores just below the EU average in this respect. The highest levels in this indicator are found in Austria, Belgium, Ireland, the Netherlands, and Denmark. With the exception of Austria, these countries also have the 'happiest' populations. At the EU level, there is almost no variation among men and women regarding the feeling of happiness. The feeling of happiness is also not determined by the subjective perception of whether one lives in the countryside, in a large city, or somewhere in between. Variations are noted among different ages (there are more young than old 'happy' people), education levels (those more educated are happier), and socio-economic groups (managers and students have the highest scores among the happy people while pensioners and unemployed have the highest scores among the unhappy). The survey thus confirms the findings of the Slovenian analysis (Social Overview 2006, IMAD) and the Eurofound (2004) that people with better access to opportunities are more satisfied with their life and more optimistic. Subjective indicators are becoming increasingly relevant for policy-makers. The European Reality Survey asked European citizens which dimensions of life they consider (very, fairly, quite) important or unimportant. The survey finds that, at the level of the European average, the most important aspects of life are health (99% of respondents), family (97%), and friends and acquaintances (95%). These are followed by leisure time (90%), which is ranked above work (84%). The latter also holds for all member states except Lithuania, Latvia, and France, where work is more important than spare time. The next most important areas at the EU average level are voluntary work (79%), religion (52%), and politics (43%). For Slovenian respondents, health is the most important factor (for 100% of respondents), followed by family, friends, and acquaintances (99%), leisure time (95%), work (92%), voluntary work (88%), religion (51%), and politics (27% of respondents). Only the French find work as important as the Slovenians, while the importance of voluntary work is only seen as more important in Cyprus and Italy. The Eurofound survey (2004) found that for the EU-15 citizens, the satisfaction with social and family life has already replaced the satisfaction with income as the key determinant of life satisfaction. The main factor of a satisfying social and family life is successful reconciliation of work and family obligations. Further, life satisfaction is significantly determined by unemployment, which strongly affects family life. The results for the post-socialist countries were quite different. In those countries, satisfaction with income is still the main determinant of life satisfaction. Graph: Satisfaction with different aspects of life in Slovenia and the EU average, as a % of responses 80 60 40 89 □ Slovenia ■ EU 25 90 76 75 82 72 37 - Source of data: Eurostat. 91 83 80 74 73 67 20 0 Health Expenditure by Functions of Health Care Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. 30 Health expenditure according to the SHA methodology in 2004 - classification by functions of health care Structure, in % SIT m Structure of health financing agents, in % As % of GDP Total Public Private Public Private Total Public Private ICHA code1 HF.1 HF.2 HF.1 HF.2 HF.1 HF.2 Total health expenditure HC.1 - HC.R.1 100.0 531,755 398,823 132,933 75.0 25.0 8.5 6.4 2.1 Current health expenditure (HC.1 - HC.7) 95.6 508,324 381,975 126,350 75.1 24.9 8.1 6.1 2.0 HC.1. Services of curative care 50.7 269,467 221,778 47,689 82.3 17.7 4.3 3.5 0.8 HC.2. Services of rehabilitative care 2.1 11,205 7,554 3,651 67.4 32.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 HC.3. Services of long-term nursing care2 8.0 42,548 40,291 2,258 94.7 5.3 0.7 0.6 0.0 HC.4. Ancillary services to health care 2.8 14,838 11,183 3,654 75.4 24.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 HC.5. Medical goods dispensed to outpatients3 23.9 127,061 71,569 55,492 56.3 43.7 2.0 1.1 0.9 HC.6. Prevention and public health services 3.9 20,579 15,274 5,306 74.2 25.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 HC.7. Health administration and health . 4 insurance4 4.3 22,625 14,325 8,300 63.3 36.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 HC.R.1. Gross capital formation 4.4 23,431 16,848 6,583 71.9 28.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 Health-related functions5 HC.R.2 - HC.R.7 100.0 130,409 66,450 63,960 51.0 49.0 2.1 1.1 1.0 HC.R.6 Social services of long-term care2 21.7 28,362 14,666 13,696 51.7 48.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 HC.R.7 Cash benefits6 66.9 87,217 41,015 46,202 47.0 53.0 1.4 0.7 0.7 Source of data: SORS, First Release (22 December 2006), calculations by IMAD. Notes: ICHA - International Classification for Health Accounts: HF - health financing agents, HC - health care functions. 2Also see p. 32. 3Only medical goods dispensed to out-patients are included. "Including the cost of managing voluntary health insurance schemes. 5In addition to services included in the table, health-related services also include HC.R.2: education and training of health personnel, HC.R.3: R&D in health, HC.R.4: food, hygiene, and drinking water control, HC.R.5: environmental health. 6Sickness benefits covered by the HIIS and the employers, funeral and death allowances etc. In December 2006, the SORS first released the basic health expenditure tables for 2003 and 2004 according to the new international SHA methodology (OECD, A System of Health Accounts, 2000). The SHA methodology was developed by the OECD in co-operation with the WHO and the Eurostat. Since 2003, this simplified system has also been launched in the EU countries. The SHA methodology requires that health expenditure data are shown according to the International Classification for Health Accounts (ICHA) according to three dimensions, i.e. not only by the sources of financing (as before) but also by health care providers (hospitals, providers of out-patient health care, providers of medical goods, providers of public health programmes, health administration, etc.) and by health care functions (see the table). All three classifications of expenditure are much more detailed than presented in the above table since most items are further broken down into three-digit codes. For example, services of curative care, rehabilitative care, and long-term care are each divided further into in-patient care, day care, and out-patient care (see the graph). The main objective of introducing the system of health accounts is to improve the transparency of health care funding and expenditure and enable international comparisons. In addition to the expenditure by health care provider and by function, the SHA also allows for more detailed records on private health care expenditure, which will enable analyses of the allocation and spending of all health care sources at the national level. In the past, difficulties regarding the international comparability of data on health care expenditure mainly stemmed from the considerable differences in the definition of health care across the countries. The functional classification presented in the table thus provided a very precise methodological demarcation between health care services and services that are merely related to health care. According to the SHA, the latter are excluded from the total health expenditure and presented separately (e.g. R&D in health care, the social part of long-term care services, food and drinking water control, cash benefits). In Slovenia, for instance, cash benefits as part of the compulsory health insurance were previously included in the total health expenditure, while most other countries included them under social protection expenditure. On the other hand, some transfers and household benefits (attendance allowances, which are covered by the pension fund), expenditure on occupational medicine, expenditure on investment from private sources, and most expenditure on health-related functions had previously been insufficiently covered in Slovenia. Long-term care expenditure still poses a number of dilemmas for international comparisons. This expenditure is treated partly under health care and partly under social care, and there are considerable Health Expenditure by Functions of Health Care Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. 31 differences across the countries as to where they include them, usually depending on the system of financing and provision of long-term care (also see p. 32). Data for Slovenia can already be included in some international comparisons. Total health expenditure as a share of GDP (8.5% in 2004) is close to the EU-25 average (8.2% in 2003). The same holds for the ratio between public and private sources (75.0%: 25.0%) at the aggregate level (see SEM 2/2007, p. 23). In the structure of Slovenia's total health expenditure, current expenditure comprises 95.6%, while gross capital formation accounts for 4.4% or 0.4% of GDP (72% from public and 28% from private sources; see the table). This ratio is also practically at the average level of 18 EU countries for which data are available (EU countries that are members of the OECD except the UK) and totals 96% for current expenditure and 4.0% (0.3% of GDP) for gross capital formation (data for 2004). Slovenia earmarks a total of 52.8% of its overall health expenditure for services of curative and rehabilitative care (HC.1 + HC.2), which is slightly less than the EU average for which these data are available (55%). This is due to the higher proportion of expenditure spent on medical goods and collective health services in Slovenia (see the international comparison in the graph). Slovenia also has a slightly lower-than-average percentage of expenditure on long-term nursing care (8.0%), which averages 9.1% in 13 EU countries (OECD members). Looking at the structure of current health expenditure, Slovenia spends relatively little on outpatient care. The more detailed data from the health accounts allow us to also analyse the expenditure on curative and rehabilitative care and long-term care presented in the table by mode of production (in-patient, out-patient, day care, home care; see the notes under the graph). As evidenced by the graph, countries differ considerably in terms of the structure of current health expenditure. This is due to differences in the capacity of each level of health care, financing, and medical practice. For example, countries with lower percentages of in-patient expenditure characteristically spend more on out-patient care (e.g. Sweden Denmark, Spain, Portugal). An OECD analysis (Health at a glance, 2005) shows that, in general, the share of in-patient expenditure is decreasing in most countries while the proportions of out-patient expenditure are growing. These structural changes in health care reflect the introduction of new medical technologies and new medicines, different mechanisms of financing the providers of health care services, and generally the search for a more efficient use of resources in health care. In 2004, Slovenia earmarked 38% of the current health expenditure (excluding expenditure on gross capital formation) for in-patient care (including acute and non-acute treatment), which is somewhat more than the average of the 13 EU countries shown in the graph (35%) and slightly above than the OECD average in 2003 (37%). The percentage of in-patient expenditure in Slovenia (29%) is considerably lower than the averages of the presented EU countries (35%) and the OECD countries (34% in 2003). On the other hand, Slovenia allocates a relatively high share of expenditure for medical goods (25% of current expenditure) and also has a high share of current expenditure on collective health services (8.5%; within that 4.0% for public health and prevention and 4.5% for health administration). We can expect that the share of expenditure on medical goods will continue to increase, like in most OECD countries. Countries also earmark increasingly high shares of health funds for prevention and for public health. Graph: Structure of current health expenditure on in-patient and out-patient care, medical goods, and collective health services in Slovenia and selected OECD countries in 2004 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% ■ Collective health services □ Medical goods □ Out-patient care □ In-patient care Sources of data: OECD Health Data 2006, Health at a glance 2005; SORS, and data from the common Eurostat/OECD/WHO questionnaire 2006 for Slovenia; calculations by IMAD. Notes: SK, NL and HU: 2002. In-patient care includes data under the ICHA codes HC.1.1, 2.1, 3.1, plus day care data (HC.1.2, 2.2 and 3.2.). Out-patient care includes data under the ICHA codes HC. 1.3 and 2.3 plus treatment at home (HC.1.4, 2.4 and 3.3.). Medical goods include data under HC.5 (see table). Collective health services are the sum of expenditure under HC.6 in HC.7 (see table). Total Expenditure on Long-term Care Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. 32 SIT m Structure by sources, % % of GDP 2004 Total HF.11 HF.21 Total HF.1 HF.2 Total HF.1 HF.2 Public Private Public Private Public Private Total long-term care; HC.3 + HC.6.11 70,910 54,957 15,953 100.0 77.5 22.5 1.13 0.88 0.26 HC.3 Long-term nursing care 42,548 40,291 2,258 100.0 94.7 5.3 0.68 0.64 0.04 HC.6.1 Social services of long-term care 28,362 14,666 13,696 100.0 51.7 48.3 0.45 0.23 0.22 Source of data: SORS, First Release (22 December 2006), calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 codes of the International Classification for Health Accounts (ICHA); also see the notes below the table on p. 30. The term long-term care services comprises the organisation and provision of both health and social services to people who are limited in their ability to function independently on a daily basis over an extended period of time. This definition of total long-term care (hereinafter LTC), which was proposed by three international institutions (the Eurostat, the OECD, and the WHO) in autumn 2005 as the basis for the single methodology used in monitoring the expenditure related to the care for old people and others who need help with their daily activities. Among other things, the methodology precisely defines the boundary between long-term nursing services and social services of long-term care. This demarcation is one of the most critical points regarding the international comparability of LTC expenditure as well as total health expenditure (the latter only includes the expenditure on long-term nursing services; see pp. 30-31). The demarcation basically refers to the type of service required. Long-term nursing services are required by persons with a reduced degree of physical or cognitive capacity who are consequently dependent on assistance with basic activities of daily living (ADL). These include: eating, dressing, bathing, using the bathroom and getting out of a bed or chair. The social services of long-term care include the instrumental activities of daily living (IADL), i.e. other activities necessary to remain independent, such as shopping, cooking, doing the laundry, using transport, and cleaning. In December 2006, the SORS published data on total long-term care expenditure for Slovenia collected using the proposed Eurostat/OECD/WHO methodology. In 2004, the total LTC expenditure totalled 1.13% of GDP (public expenditure 0.88% of GDP, private expenditure 0.26%). Within that, 60% was allocated for long-term nursing care while 40% was spent on social services of long-term care. Private expenditure comprises less than a quarter of the total LTC expenditure in Slovenia. Long-term nursing care is largely financed from public sources, mostly the HIIS funds intended for health care services in homes for the elderly and specialised social institutions, extended hospitalisation, and partly the home-nursing service that provides LTC. Long-term nursing care also includes funds of the PDII earmarked for 'attendance allowances'. Persons entitled to this allowance are those unable to perform the basic daily activities (ADL). A good half of the expenditure for social services of long-term care is financed from public sources (the national and local budgets) while the remaining almost-half is covered by private funds (see the table). Private funds mostly comprise extra payments for the accommodation and food in homes for the elderly and other types of institutional care. International comparisons of long-term care expenditure data are currently still not entirely reliable. While data on long-term nursing care expenditure that some countries had already prepared according to the SHA methodology (see pp. 30-31) before the proposed single methodology are relatively reliable, data on expenditure on social services of long-term care are still in the phase of pilot calculations in most countries. Slovenia spends 0.7% of GDP on long-term nursing care, which ranks the country slightly below the average of countries for which comparable data are available (0.8%; see the graph). According to the European Commission's estimate prepared within a study on the impact of ageing populations on public spending in 2005 (the SHA methodology was taken into account only partially), Slovenia scored among the countries with a relatively well-developed system of LTC. According to these estimates, which however included only public expenditure, the old EU member states spend significantly more on LTC than the new EU countries (in 2004 EU-15: 0.9% of GDP; EU-10: 0.2% of GDP; Slovenia: 0.9% of GDP). Expenditure on long-term care is one of the key inputs in the preparation of long-term projections on the sustainability of public finances. The presented methodology is foreseen to be used as the basis for the collection of LTC data in the next round of long-term projections in 2009. Graph: Total long-term nursing care expenditure in Slovenia and selected EU countries, 2004 2.0 1.6 -I 1.2 0.8 0.4 -I 0.0 1.4 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.4 1. 0.1 0.1 E c o Q S ® i? < ® m u- o m w x u to Jj Z Source of data: OECD Health Data 2006. Note: figure for Belgium for 2003. 1.8 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.7 Statistical Appendix Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 pp. 1-17 Gross Domestic Product / I Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. A 2 2003-2004 constant previous year prices, 2005-2004 constant 2004 prices In SIT m In EUR m Real growth rates in % 2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 2009 2003 2004 2005 2006 forecast 2004 2005 2006 forecast VALUE ADDED BY ACTIVITIES AND GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT A Agriculture, hunting, forestry 123,680 149,634 138,342 132,255 557 563 571 17.1 -5.2 -4.4 1.0 1.0 1.5 B Fishing 896 881 869 884 4 4 4 -16.9 9.5 1.7 0.0 1.0 1.0 C Mining and quarrying 23,617 27,037 30,948 31,737 132 132 1 31 2.5 -0.2 2.6 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 D Manufacturing 1,259,492 1,386,846 1,444,152 1,550,355 6,845 7,176 7,499 4.1 2.8 7.4 5.8 4.8 4.5 E Electricity, gas and water supply 140,256 149,089 173,849 176,805 741 753 756 0.8 6.6 1.7 0.5 1.5 0.5 F Construction 274,175 294,211 322,680 360,659 1,597 1,712 1,772 1.3 4.0 11.8 6.1 7.2 3.5 G Wholesale, retail; certain repairs 553,700 610,259 653,633 689,909 3,003 3,117 3,220 3.1 4.0 5.6 4.3 3.8 3.3 H Hotels and restaurants 110,905 116,979 123,365 130,211 571 601 631 -0.1 0.7 5.6 5.0 5.3 5.0 I Transport, storage and communications 334,458 360,946 451,071 479,488 2,121 2,238 2,383 0.1 9.0 6.3 6.0 5.5 6.5 J Financial intermediation 221,699 260,587 276,319 300,799 1,362 1,464 1,567 17.2 10.4 8.9 8.5 7.5 7.0 K Real estate, renting and business services 742,611 826,027 901,517 939,841 4,091 4,266 4,458 4.7 3.6 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.5 L Public administration and defence 311,343 357,775 349,322 355,784 1,526 1,569 1,600 7.3 2.3 1.9 2.8 2.8 2.0 M Education 269,600 296,231 326,464 333,613 1,426 1,461 1 ,498 2.7 3.0 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.5 N Health and social work 241,059 261,747 278,144 284,263 1,219 1,256 1,300 3.7 2.9 2.2 2.8 3.0 3.5 O Other community and personal services 158,845 175,356 199,499 207,080 907 957 1,010 5.7 5.8 3.8 5.0 5.5 5.5 P Private households with employed persons 1,163 1,228 1,436 1,386 6 6 6 -8.1 5.9 -3.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 VALUE ADDED (A+...+P) 4,767,499 5,274,834 5,671,609 5,975,070 26,108 27,274 28,406 4.5 3.9 5.3 4.7 4.5 4.2 Taxes on products and services 751,595 827,981 884,055 919,417 4,005 4,158 4,320 4.2 4.8 4.0 4.4 3.8 3.9 Less: subsidies on products and services 21,731 31,976 31,237 30,487 125 122 119 7.1 -0.6 -2.4 -2.0 -2.0 -3.0 GDP 5,497,364 6,070,840 6,524,427 6,864,000 29,988 31,309 32,607 4.4 4.0 5.2 4.7 4.4 4.1 Source of data: SORS 2003-2005; IMAD's calculations and Spring Forecast 2007. Real growth rates: SORS 2003-2006; IMAD's calculations and Spring Forecast 2007. Note: a comparison of nominal values is possible under the technical assumption of the SIT/EUR exchange rate = 239.64, which has been used since 2007. Gross Domestic Product / II Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. A 3 Current prices, in SIT m Current prices, in EUR m Structure in %, current prices, GDP=100 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 forecast forecast SUPPLY AND USE OF GROSS NATIONAL DISPOSABLE INCOME 1. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 5,813,540 6,271,795 6,620,145 7,126,012 31,918 34,444 36,783 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 2. Net primary income from the rest of the world -46,845 -75,400 -61,078 -87,702 -433 -464 -540 -1.2 -0.9 -1.2 -1.4 -1.3 -1.5 3. GROSS NATIONAL INCOME (1+2) 5,766,695 6,196,395 6,559,066 7,038,310 31,485 33,980 36,243 98.8 99.1 98.8 98.6 98.7 98.5 4. Net current transfers from the rest of the world 3,527 -14,815 -32,675 -53,754 -191 -81 -40 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -0.6 -0.2 -0.1 5. GROSS NATIONAL DISPOSABLE INCOME ( 3+4 ) 5,770,222 6,181,580 6,526,391 6,984,556 31,294 33,899 36,203 98.6 98.6 98.0 98.0 98.4 98.4 6. Final consumption expenditure 4,381,447 4,666,049 4,931,809 5,220,816 23,134 24,602 26,087 74.4 74.5 73.3 72.5 71.4 70.9 Private consumption 3,242,319 3,438,530 3,636,387 3,848,237 17,034 18,078 19,159 54.8 54.9 54.0 53.4 52.5 52.1 Government consumption 1,139,128 1,227,519 1,295,422 1,372,579 6,100 6,524 6,928 19.6 19.6 19.3 19.1 18.9 18.8 7. GROSS SAVINGS ( 5-6 ) 1,388,776 1,515,531 1,594,581 1,763,740 8,160 9,297 10,116 24.2 24.1 24.8 25.6 27.0 27.5 8. GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION 1,436,604 1,680,755 1,724,428 1,956,119 8,788 9,569 10,180 26.8 26.0 27.5 27.5 27.8 27.7 9. SURPLUS ON THE CURRENT ACCOUNT WITH THE ROW (7-8) -47,829 -165,224 -129,846 -192,379 -629 -273 -64 -2.6 -2.0 -2.7 -2.0 -0.8 -0.2 Source of data: SORS 2003-2006, BS; IMAD's calculations and Spring Forecast 2007. Note: a comparison of nominal values is possible under the technical assumption of the SIT/EUR exchange rate = 239.64, which has been used since 2007. EXPENDITURE STRUCTURE OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, 2000-2006 constant previous year prices In SIT m In EUR m Real growth rates, in % GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (3+4+5) 5,497,364 6,070,840 6,524,427 6,864,000 29,988 31,309 32,607 4.4 4.0 5.2 4.7 4.4 4.1 1. Exports of goods and services 3,155,890 3,651,048 4,157,224 4,570,904 20,924 22,839 24,849 12.5 10.5 10.0 9.7 9.2 8.8 2. Imports of goods and services 3,186,667 3,685,560 4,106,912 4,534,031 20,566 22,345 24,110 13.4 7.0 10.4 8.7 8.6 7.9 3. EXTERNAL BALANCE * (1-2) -30,777 -34,512 50,312 36,873 358 494 738 -0,5* 2,0* -0,3* 0,7* 0,5* 0,8* 4. FINAL CONSUMPTION 4,150,646 4,505,482 4,811,325 4,975,387 21,509 22,233 22,923 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.4 3.1 Private consumption 3,075,724 3,327,207 3,556,451 3,673,077 15,906 16,468 17,025 2.6 3.4 3.3 3.8 3.5 3.4 Government consumption (individual and collective) 1,074,922 1,178,275 1,254,875 1,302,309 5,603 5,765 5,898 3.4 2.2 3.8 3.1 2.9 2.3 5. GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION 1,377,495 1,599,870 1,662,790 1,851,740 8,121 8,582 8,946 11.4 -1.1 11.4 5.1 5.7 4.2 Gross fixed capital investment 1,296,953 1,459,991 1,559,267 1,744,180 7,708 8,213 8,575 7.9 1.5 11.9 5.9 6.6 4.4 Changes in inventories and valuables* 80,542 139,879 103,523 107,560 414 369 371 1,0* -0,6* 0,1* -0,1* -0,1* 0,0* Source of data: Nominal: SORS 2003-2005, BS; IMAD's calculations and Spring Forecast 2007. Real growth rates: SORS 2003-2006, BS; IMAD's calculations and Spring Forecast 2007. Note: a comparison of nominal values is possible under the technical assumption of the SIT/EUR exchange rate = 239.64, which has been used since 2007. *as contributions to real GDP growth (in percentage points). Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD Industrial Production No. 4/2007 p. A 4 2000 2006 2006 2007 2002 2003 2004 2000 2000 QIV QI QII QIII QIV 1 2 3 4 0 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION by sectors *, indices, 2000=100; January 2007 data are provisional INDUSTRY, total 105.4 106.9 112.8 116.5 124.1 122.3 118.2 124.6 122.4 131.2 115.2 111.3 128.2 114.0 130.6 129.1 125.1 108.7 133.5 135.2 140.3 118.2 125.6 121.7 C Mining and quarrying 99.2 104.9 97.6 104.2 114 109.6 103.3 113.7 105.7 133.1 109.3 97.6 103.1 108.2 123.2 109.7 96.6 102.1 118.4 134.5 151.5 113.3 107.2 115.5 D Manufacturing 104.8 106.5 111.6 115.6 123.7 120.5 117.1 124.7 123.0 130.1 113.2 109.9 128.1 113.4 131.0 129.8 126.0 108.3 134.6 135.1 139.7 115.5 124.7 122.1 DA Food, beverages, tobacco 98.6 99.6 89.4 88.0 86.7 96.2 76.8 88.4 87.4 94.3 76.3 71.4 82.8 82.0 89.4 93.7 87.1 86.3 88.7 87.7 103.4 91.9 75.5 75 DB Textiles & textile products 80.5 71.3 61.7 54.1 52.1 51.0 57.3 49.4 54.2 47.5 64.1 49.8 58.0 44.4 49.5 54.4 59.9 44.1 58.5 51.6 49.9 40.9 55.0 52.4 DC Leather & leather products 83.6 72.7 68.2 72.7 76.4 73.0 78.3 77.8 72.1 77.4 75.2 73.0 86.6 66.5 85.8 81.2 67.0 66.5 82.9 90.3 91.1 50.8 85.7 61.1 DD Wood & wood products 94.3 91.0 94.7 100.7 104.4 103.0 93.6 110.0 104.7 109.1 80.5 93.0 107.4 100.2 116.9 112.9 110.0 88.6 115.4 114.9 120.6 91.8 98.7 111.8 DE Paper, publishing, printing 1 100.9 100.6 101.2 104.8 108.2 112.5 104.6 108.3 105.8 114.3 99.2 96.9 117.7 103.6 114.3 107.0 104.4 101.0 111.9 115.2 118.3 109.3 106.2 98.2 DF Coke, petrol. prod., nuclear fuel 2 34.2 36.3 - - - - - - - 20.9 - - - - - - - 15.8 19.9 21.1 21.6 19.9 22.8 21.2 DG Chem., prod., man-made fibers 114.5 128.0 147.5 158.7 179.4 155.9 172.9 183.2 172.1 189.3 178.0 162.1 178.6 173.4 196.2 180.0 191.6 154.3 170.3 207.3 198.6 161.9 208.8 193 DH Rubber & plastic products 99.8 103.6 116.5 122.2 129.5 127.0 120.0 126.4 136.3 135.5 113.2 115.0 131.7 113.9 132.2 133.0 134.2 123.5 151.1 145.1 149.3 112.0 128.8 127.2 DI Non-metal mineral products 100.9 101.6 84.6 78.7 84.3 79.5 67.2 88.6 91.3 89.9 62.4 59.4 79.8 76.2 91.2 98.4 92.4 85.9 95.6 97.3 98.7 73.7 71.8 74.8 DJ Basic metals & fabricated. prod. 108.3 112.0 107.8 116.3 130.3 119.6 121.2 130.9 131.7 137.3 113.4 117.5 132.8 118.4 138.0 136.4 133.3 120.0 141.8 148.8 147.0 116.0 139.1 131.7 DK Machinery & equipment nec. 128.6 120.9 138.5 140.9 150 150.9 144.0 148.0 144.9 162.9 134.5 137.9 159.6 136.1 151.6 156.4 153.8 121.4 159.5 162.7 174.6 151.3 156.5 154.2 DL Electrical & optical equipment 110.3 122.8 153.0 157.7 182.5 166.9 168.1 183.1 183.9 194.8 164.5 158.4 181.4 152.5 198.4 198.3 172.6 152.8 226.2 195.0 211.1 178.3 171.3 177.2 DM Transport equipment 106.4 111.7 152.7 184.7 177.4 187.3 200.1 185.5 149.5 174.4 197.2 172.9 230.1 182.0 186.9 187.6 176.4 75.6 196.5 176.1 180.7 166.4 179.7 185.3 DN Manufacturing nec. 106.3 102.6 103.4 108.7 108.2 125.5 104.0 108.6 108.6 111.7 93.2 99.3 119.4 98.8 116.1 111.0 109.3 97.6 118.8 115.6 122.7 96.8 99.9 106.1 E Electricity, gas & water supply 3 115.3 111.3 132.9 130.9 129.6 150.4 137.6 122.3 117.7 141.0 142.1 133.4 137.2 121.6 122.1 123.3 121.2 113.1 118.7 130.8 137.5 154.6 142.9 113.3 NUMBER OF PERSONS IN PAID EMPLOYMENT IN INDUSTRY 4 Total, in 1000 259.9 255.1 251.7 247.3 243.3 245.3 242.8 243.0 243.0 244.7 243.0 242.7 242.6 242.4 242.9 243.6 242.9 242.7 243.3 244.6 245.4 244.0 244.1 244.8 C Mining & quarrying 5.1 4.8 4.4 4.2 4 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 D Manufacturing 243.1 238.9 236.1 231.8 227.9 229.8 227.5 227.5 227.5 229.2 227.7 227.5 227.3 227.0 227.5 228.0 227.4 227.2 227.8 229.1 229.9 228.7 228.9 229.6 E Electricity, gas & water supply 11.7 11.4 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.2 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.3 CONSTRUCTION 5, real indices of construction put in place, indices 2000=100 Construction 97.9 105.7 108.4 111.7 128.8 128.7 76.7 120.0 149.0 169.4 64.6 74.9 90.6 101.1 115.0 143.9 140.4 132.3 174.2 188.1 163.2 157.0 94.8 98.1 Buildings 104.2 104.9 114.6 126.4 144.1 137.9 100.3 131.3 165.3 179.6 83.9 102.3 114.8 119.0 117.7 157.3 152.7 156.1 187.1 191.9 169.9 177.0 108.0 113.6 Civil engineering 92.1 106.4 102.6 98.0 114.5 120.3 54.8 109.5 133.8 160.0 46.7 49.6 68.1 84.5 112.4 131.5 128.9 110.2 162.3 184.6 157.1 138.4 86.2 87.9 Persons in paid employment in construction 4 99.4 99.1 97.5 102.0 109.6 104.2 102.5 108.6 113.1 114.3 101.5 102.0 104.0 106.5 108.7 110.5 112.2 112.9 114.2 114.9 115.2 112.7 112.9 114.4 Source of data: SORS. Notes: *From February 2004 onwards the industrial production indices have been provisional. For the period up until January 2004 they are calculated according to data on produced quantities of industrial goods. From February 2004 onwards, data on production value have been taken as the basis for the calculation. The value of production is calculated according to the following formula: turnover in the month (x) + value of stocks in the month (x) - value of stocks in the month (x-1).1Enterprises with activity of publishing are excluded; 2data not published because of confidentiality; 3only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 4In January 2005, the SORS adopted a new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARiMa model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labor Force Survey. Data for previous years dating back to January 2000 have also been calculated according to the new methodology. 5The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD Production No. 4/2007 p. A 5 2005 2006 2006 2007 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 QIV QI QII QIII QIV 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 TRANSPORT Passenger-km in transport for hire or reward (1000) 1,143 1,065 980 848 851 215 211 236 180 223 64 74 73 82 81 50 46 85 79 77 66 70 62 Passenger-km in rail transport, in m 749 778 764 777 788 199 191 197 1 89 212 60 64 62 69 66 60 58 70 72 71 69 - - Passenger-km in air transport, in m 794 837 896 1,019 1,044 198 182 251 41 1 200 56 63 69 77 104 1 47 143 121 83 60 57 62 56 Tonne-km in rail transport , in m 3,078 3,274 3,466 3,245 3,373 894 799 815 81 7 942 265 287 267 287 261 289 259 269 315 321 306 - - Tonne-km in maritime transport, in m 28,578 28,361 37,047 52,513 49,155 11,013 13,498 11,545 12,618 11,494 5,015 4,725 3,494 3,552 4,498 4,709 3,955 3,954 4,381 2,846 4,267 4,477 2,949 Tonne-km in road transport , in m 6,609 7,040 9,007 11,033 12,098 2,752 2,901 3,413 2,778 3,020 - - - - - - - - - - - - - Urban passenger traffic, in m 103.9 98.4 100.2 97.2 94.0 28.8 27.3 24.3 14.6 27.7 8.6 9.5 8.6 8.1 7.6 4.0 3.7 6.9 9.1 9.4 9.2 8.7 8.5 Airport passengers traffic, in 000 866 922 1,047 1,228 1,339 264 236 334 488 282 73 85 90 112 132 1 69 171 148 116 88 79 82 78 Harbour freight transport, in 000 t 9,305 10,788 12,063 12,625 15,462 3,555 3,871 3,877 3,555 4,158 1 ,341 1,265 1,103 1,372 1,402 1 ,245 895 1,416 1 ,426 1,362 1,370 1 ,1 97 1,323 Transport of gas, million m3 1,007 1,098 1,097 1,136 - 331 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - TOURISM, overnight stays, in 000 Total 7,321 7,503 7,589 7,573 7,722 1,303 1,404 1,814 3,115 1,389 464 476 474 575 765 1,157 1,209 749 548 407 434 472 473 Domestic tourists 3,300 3,327 3,226 3,173 3,233 578 697 691 1 ,226 619 268 236 169 220 303 498 457 271 219 197 203 177 266 Foreign tourists 4,021 4,175 4,363 4,399 4,488 725 708 1,123 1 ,889 769 196 240 306 355 462 659 753 478 329 209 231 296 206 Health resorts 2,327 2,360 2,417 2,464 2,434 548 523 573 853 484 169 181 158 197 217 275 324 255 219 83 183 175 191 Seaside 2,052 2,010 2,002 1,949 1,871 266 201 493 961 216 58 91 1 39 139 215 367 346 248 118 31 67 47 62 AGRICULTURE, slaughter in slaughterhouses, in 000 tons Cattle 40.5 43.1 40.1 37.4 37.9 10.7 8.9 9.0 8.4 11.7 2.8 3.1 2.9 3.3 2.8 2.5 2.9 2.9 3.4 4.0 4.3 2.6 2.5 Pigs 37.1 37.3 34.6 31.7 33.6 8.7 8.3 9.1 7.9 8.4 2.5 3.1 2.8 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.6 3.1 2.7 2.5 Poultry 51.4 56.0 52.0 53.4 49.2 13.4 12.4 12.0 12.3 12.5 3.9 4.7 3.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 3.8 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.6 4.1 Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EURO m 101.6 103.3 102.4 104.1 106.7 32.0 21.7 25.6 26.1 33.4 6.8 8.2 8.1 8.9 8.6 7.9 8.9 9.3 9.6 10.5 13.3 32.2 31.1 FISHING, in 000 tons Catches in marine waters 1459.8 1087.5 815.9 1021.6 736.7 268.3 131.1 155.0 271.3 278.4 49.8 65.4 15.9 36.3 36.6 82.1 84.2 92.7 94.3 91.4 51.8 36.1 83.4 Source of data: SORS. Balance of Payments Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. A 6 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2006 2006 2007 QI QII QIII QIV 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, in EUR m Current account 247 -196 -720 -547 -756 -163 52 -214 -431 44 -111 -97 36 -30 46 -96 -71 -47 -23 -188 -221 8 -170 Trade balance 1 -265 -543 -1,009 -1,026 -1,121 -204 -117 -258 -542 7 -93 -119 18 -77 -59 -76 -115 -67 -93 -186 -263 -53 -93 Exports 11,082 11,417 12,933 14,599 17,032 4,028 4,285 4,163 4,555 1,248 1,271 1,509 1,334 1,463 1,488 1,453 1,175 1,535 1,578 1,601 1,376 1,470 1,489 Imports 11,347 11,960 13,942 15,625 18,152 4,232 4,403 4,421 5,097 1,241 1,363 1,628 1,316 1,540 1,547 1,529 1,290 1,601 1,670 1,788 1,639 1,523 1,582 Services 620 540 688 856 885 207 254 213 211 73 57 76 69 94 90 29 95 89 103 46 61 108 28 Exports 2,440 2,465 2,783 3,210 3,538 729 864 1,040 906 240 225 263 257 292 315 340 386 314 309 291 306 294 213 Imports 1,820 1,925 2,095 2,354 2,653 522 610 826 695 1 67 168 187 1 87 197 226 311 291 224 206 244 244 185 185 Income -168 -219 -322 -283 -349 -77 -78 -92 -102 -20 -29 -28 -35 -25 -18 -30 -29 -33 -35 -33 -34 -35 -42 Receipts 490 510 530 641 737 157 192 188 200 52 52 54 57 63 72 62 62 64 63 62 75 55 52 Expenditure 657 728 852 924 1,086 234 270 280 302 72 80 82 92 88 90 92 91 97 98 95 109 90 94 Current transfers 60 26 -76 -94 -171 -89 -6 -77 2 -1 6 -47 -26 -16 -23 33 -19 -22 -36 2 -15 15 -12 -62 Receipts 500 474 561 708 784 160 224 163 238 45 57 58 58 57 108 61 55 47 84 59 95 44 60 Expenditure 439 449 638 802 955 249 230 240 236 62 104 83 75 81 75 80 77 83 83 73 80 55 122 Capital and financial account 3 46 698 404 1,010 103 112 345 450 -197 222 78 80 10 21 152 82 111 -133 75 508 96 349 Capital account -164 -165 -96 -1 14 -118 -8 -21 -32 -57 4 -6 -6 8 -9 -19 -21 6 -17 -8 -9 -41 19 -4 Financial account 167 211 794 518 1,128 111 132 377 508 -201 228 84 73 19 40 174 75 128 -126 84 549 77 353 Direct investment 1,556 -151 224 -58 -287 -64 -60 5 -167 -161 57 40 6 -44 -22 31 -28 2 -45 -177 54 -90 -80 Domestic abroad -166 -421 -441 -503 -590 -108 -178 -109 -194 -90 -20 1 -87 -18 -73 -8 -33 -68 -43 -159 8 -95 -137 Foreign in Slovenia 1,722 270 665 445 303 45 118 114 27 -71 77 39 93 -26 51 39 5 70 -2 -18 46 4 56 Portfolio investment -69 -223 -637 -1,618 -1,458 -257 -178 -351 -672 -103 -116 -39 -28 -106 -45 -86 -271 6 -65 -183 -424 -905 -150 Financial derivatives 0 0 6 -10 -13 -2 -10 -3 2 2 -4 0 0 -9 -1 -6 1 2 -3 2 4 5 -4 Other investment 565 849 945 2,393 1,605 526 85 43 950 296 283 -53 19 168 -102 -175 120 98 56 355 540 880 713 Assets -538 -730 -1,308 -1,531 -1,899 -389 -881 -380 -249 53 -171 -271 -58 -600 -222 40 -22 -399 85 -23 -311 -534 -739 Commercial credits -135 -116 -237 -1 95 -431 -288 -180 -76 114 -54 -106 -128 -62 -57 -61 -35 76 -118 -92 -54 259 -31 -158 Loans -174 -223 -281 -413 -713 -158 -179 -96 -280 -29 -32 -98 -32 -60 -87 -46 30 -80 -50 -73 -157 -18 -74 Currency and deposits -157 -323 -720 -835 -747 57 -522 -199 -83 135 -33 -45 36 -483 -74 121 -128 -192 227 104 -413 -469 -506 Other assets -71 -68 -69 -88 -9 0 0 -9 0 0 0 0 -1 1 0 0 0 -9 0 0 -1 -16 -1 Liabilities 1,104 1,579 2,252 3,924 3,503 915 966 423 1,199 243 454 218 78 768 120 -215 1 41 497 -30 378 851 1,414 1,452 Commercial credits 95 59 214 236 448 -10 129 58 271 -105 68 27 14 49 65 71 -61 48 124 111 37 -158 211 Loans 838 1,123 1,671 2,649 2,056 365 849 369 473 1 27 79 158 48 856 -55 -40 1 49 260 -53 300 225 151 -53 Deposits 130 428 335 1 ,01 4 1,061 587 1 8 464 254 309 25 -2 -114 116 -243 61 191 -96 -35 594 -428 292 Other liabilities 39 -31 33 25 -61 -27 -13 -12 -10 -33 -1 8 16 -23 -6 -2 -7 -2 -5 1 -5 1,847 1,002 International reserves 2 -1,885 -264 256 -1 89 1,281 -92 295 684 394 -234 6 136 76 10 210 409 254 20 -68 86 376 187 -126 Statistical error -250 150 22 1 44 -254 61 -164 -132 -19 153 -111 18 -117 20 -67 -57 -1 1 -64 156 113 -287 -104 -179 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods 1,542 1,634 1,873 2,058 2,492 551 615 622 705 158 169 224 1 86 212 217 222 168 231 224 245 236 N/A N/A Intermediate goods 5,245 5,463 6,342 6,990 8,429 1,992 2,139 2,094 2,203 61 8 630 744 656 736 750 720 604 770 772 810 621 N/A N/A Consumer goods 4,175 4,188 4,568 5,349 5,840 1,432 1,453 1,366 1,589 453 456 523 470 482 501 485 367 515 560 532 497 N/A N/A Import of investment goods 2,072 2,322 2,494 2,624 3,076 629 723 746 978 152 224 253 213 239 271 245 204 297 276 344 358 N/A N/A Intermediate goods 6,816 7,079 8,348 9,534 11,064 2,632 2,713 2,738 2,981 778 842 1,012 796 950 966 972 800 966 1,010 1,072 900 N/A N/A Consumer goods 2,686 2,838 3,301 3,646 4,172 992 1,011 986 1,183 290 318 383 310 352 349 320 289 376 399 409 375 N/A N/A Sources of data: BS, SORS. Notes: Exports and imports (F.O.B.) include also the adjustment for exports and imports of goods by ITRS and duty-free shops reports; 2 reserve assets of the BS. Monetary Indicators Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. A 7 2005 2006 2005 2006 2007 December 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 MONETARY SYSTEM - CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, end of the month, in SIT bn Banknotes and coins 217.3 152.8 204.2 217.3 205.9 206.8 207.5 220.9 216.5 220.7 212.1 210.3 213.1 214.0 197.6 152.8 2,709 2,684 Overnight deposits at other MFI 1,491.0 1,694.1 1,312.9 1,491.0 1,475.5 1,482.4 1,513.3 1,535.3 1,571.7 1,598.7 1,595.6 1,594.9 1,605.7 1,590.4 1,612.5 1,694.1 6,902 6,866 Overnight deposits of NFI at the BS 3.1 5.0 3.0 2.8 3.5 2.8 5.7 6.5 4.9 3.6 3.6 5.7 4.8 6.0 4.5 5.0 47 37 Overnight deposits of other government sector (central government excluded) at the BS 3.3 1.3 2.9 2.7 2.2 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.1 1.8 2.2 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.3 6 7 Total overnight deposits at the BS 6.4 6.4 5.9 5.5 5.7 4.8 7.6 8.5 7.0 5.3 5.9 7.8 6.9 7.9 6.4 6.4 53 43 Deposits with agreed maturity at the BS 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 Deposits with agreed maturity at other MFI 1,688.0 1,747.3 1,826.6 1,688.0 1,728.4 1,742.3 1,730.3 1,661.7 1,682.0 1,678.2 1,710.8 1,692.2 1,735.0 1,720.9 1,744.1 1,747.3 7,379 7,441 Deposits at redeemable notice 164.9 197.5 123.1 122.4 138.2 140.6 163.6 172.0 168.7 179.8 166.0 170.8 182.7 184.6 187.9 197.5 962 918 Debt securities, units/shares of money market funds and repos 9.5 9.2 8.5 9.5 8.8 9.1 9.4 9.7 9.1 6.7 7.0 7.7 7.3 7.5 7.9 9.2 29 32 Banknotes and coins and demand deposits 1,713.9 1,853.3 1,522.9 1,713.9 1,687.0 1,694.1 1,728.4 1,764.8 1,795.3 1,824.8 1,813.5 1,812.9 1,825.7 1,812.3 1,816.5 1,853.3 10 9,593 Banknotes and coins and deposits with maturity of up to two years 3,524.6 3,798.1 3,473.1 3,524.6 3,553.9 3,577.4 3,622.9 3,598.9 3,646.6 3,683.3 3,690.7 3,675.9 3,743.4 3,717.7 3,748.5 3,798.1 18,005 17,952 Banknotes and coins and instruments with maturity of up to two years 3,534.2 3,807.2 3,481.7 3,534.2 3,562.7 3,586.5 3,632.3 3,608.5 3,655.7 3,690.0 3,697.7 3,683.6 3,750.7 3,725.2 3,756.4 3,807.2 18,035 17,984 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in SIT bn Claims of the BS on central government 17.6 16.6 17.4 17.4 17.3 17.3 17.1 16.9 16.9 16.9 16.9 16.8 16.9 16.8 16.8 16.6 69 69 Central government (S. 1311) 780.5 776.6 776.5 780.5 808.0 792.9 767.3 773.6 777.2 774.9 774.5 777.8 782.2 792.5 787.7 776.6 3,204 3,241 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 17.8 24.9 22.1 23.1 19.2 19.4 23.9 23.8 23.4 23.2 23.4 20.6 20.4 21.5 21.8 24.9 108 106 Households (S. 14, 15) 976.0 1,289.8 1,014.4 1,025.9 1,040.6 1,053.2 1,080.5 1,108.6 1,138.2 1,157.3 1,180.4 1,203.7 1,229.2 1,252.3 1,277.6 1,289.8 5,428 5,488 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 2,620.9 3,245.5 2,577.3 2,620.9 2,695.3 2,738.2 2,800.0 2,882.7 2,910.3 2,951.5 2,988.9 3,025.0 3,096.8 3,157.9 3,214.5 3,245.5 14,087 14,250 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 230.9 365.6 207.2 230.9 231.2 243.6 253.1 263.0 278.0 283.0 287.5 296.5 303.5 325.7 338.3 365.6 1,554 1,563 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 1,408.2 1,157.1 1,372.8 1,408.2 1,493.7 1,496.0 1,485.2 1,407.3 1,438.3 1,413.4 1,293.7 1,235.5 1,249.4 1,265.8 1,244.9 1,157.1 3,615 2,874 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 2,099.2 2,307.3 2,102.8 2,099.2 2,106.1 2,136.3 2,124.1 2,132.1 2,114.1 2,149.9 2,121.8 2,136.1 2,152.6 2,200.9 2,223.5 2,307.3 21,870 21,743 In foreign currency 2,199.4 3,109.6 2,095.9 2,199.4 2,286.2 2,352.9 2,455.8 2,539.0 2,618.8 2,716.2 2,748.5 2,814.9 2,894.6 2,992.1 3,048.8 3,109.6 1,048 1,095 Securities, total 1,791.0 1,442.6 1,771.6 1,791.0 1,895.7 1,853.9 1,830.1 1,787.9 1,832.5 1,737.3 1,678.1 1,608.1 1,634.4 1,622.8 1,612.5 1,442.6 5,076 4,684 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in SIT bn Deposits in domestic currency, total 2,608.5 2,904.1 2,579.5 2,610.3 2,692.7 2,651.4 2,651.7 2,685.9 2,704.6 2,749.2 2,751.9 2,773.1 2,846.7 2,885.5 2,893.7 2,904.1 17,823 17,912 Overnight 987.0 1,178.1 915.0 987.0 962.5 950.4 991.4 1,003.6 1,032.6 1,073.0 1,056.9 1,057.6 1,067.4 1,052.8 1,079.0 1,178.1 6,645 6,598 With agreed maturity - short-term 1,175.5 1,252.9 1,217.8 1,175.5 1,295.1 1,264.0 1,222.8 1,229.3 1,233.5 1,225.4 1,257.0 1,270.0 1,323.3 1,361.3 1,353.8 1,252.9 7,673 7,837 With agreed maturity - long-term 309.9 291.9 308.8 309.9 312.7 313.2 295.1 295.7 286.4 285.2 282.7 285.8 286.9 305.0 287.5 291.9 2,486 2,492 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 136.0 181.2 137.9 137.8 122.3 123.9 142.3 157.2 152.1 165.6 155.3 159.8 169.1 166.3 173.3 181.2 1,019 985 Deposits in foreign currency, total 1,349.9 1,454.0 1,372.4 1,346.6 1,344.7 1,372.8 1,403.8 1,367.3 1,417.4 1,432.4 1,424.9 1,420.9 1,433.9 1,425.8 1,448.4 1,454.0 634 614 Overnight 395.6 552.7 415.8 534.8 542.5 550.7 546.3 546.0 559.0 556.9 559.1 565.0 562.8 564.7 576.3 552.7 311 293 With agreed maturity - short-term 623.7 544.7 619.1 481.2 474.9 491.5 516.0 480.9 514.1 533.6 521.4 506.3 517.6 510.0 519.0 544.7 240 239 With agreed maturity - long-term 295.2 318.5 301.0 295.2 295.7 297.9 300.5 302.8 310.9 307.8 311.1 316.1 319.2 313.8 317.5 318.5 64 64 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 35.4 38.0 36.4 35.4 31.6 32.7 41.0 37.6 33.4 34.1 33.3 33.6 34.3 37.3 35.7 38.0 19 18 Source of data: Bank of Slovenia. Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD Prices No. 4/2007 p. A 8 Indices, 2005 = 100 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2006 2007 2006 2007 QI QII QIII QIV QI 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 GROWTH IN SELECTED PRICE INDICATORS CPI 89.2 94.2 97.6 100.0 102.5 100.8 102.8 103.2 103.2 103.1 101.4 102.3 103.2 102.9 102.6 103.3 103.6 102.8 103.1 103.6 102.9 102.7 103.8 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 95.9 100.3 100.8 100.0 102.3 101.6 102.0 102.3 103.1 105.3 101.5 101.2 102.8 102.1 101.7 102.6 102.7 101.9 103.4 104.0 105.7 104.7 105.5 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 80.8 91.0 96.3 100.0 103.7 101.5 101.9 105.2 106.2 107.1 101.7 101.8 101.8 102.1 105.3 105.1 105.2 106.3 106.1 106.2 106.9 107.0 107.4 Clothing and footwear 93.5 99.3 101.0 100.0 99.5 93.7 104.8 94.0 105.5 95.4 100.6 104.1 105.7 104.5 92.5 90.5 99.2 104.9 106.2 105.5 92.9 93.3 100.1 Housing, water, electricity, gas 80.2 85.4 91.7 100.0 105.3 104.4 106.1 107.0 103.8 104.2 104.7 105.7 106.6 105.9 106.5 106.8 107.6 103.3 103.8 104.2 103.6 103.9 105.1 Furnishings, household equip. 90.1 94.3 96.5 100.0 104.1 101.9 102.9 105.2 106.2 107.0 102.7 103.0 102.8 102.9 104.1 105.6 106.0 106.1 106.1 106.4 106.9 106.7 107.5 Medical, pharmaceutical products 93.4 98.8 100.3 100.0 98.3 98.4 98.5 98.0 98.3 99.9 98.5 98.6 98.6 98.3 98.0 98.1 97.9 98.0 98.2 98.7 99.2 99.7 100.8 Transport 88.0 92.1 97.4 100.0 101.3 99.9 101.8 103.0 100.3 99.7 99.4 101.2 102.6 101.7 102.0 103.8 103.0 100.3 100.1 100.6 99.8 99.3 100.1 Communications 98.5 99.8 100.0 100.0 100.3 100.0 99.2 100.4 101.5 100.0 99.9 99.7 99.5 98.5 99.4 99.6 102.2 102.2 101.1 101.1 101.5 99.3 99.2 Recreation and culture 89.8 94.2 97.7 100.0 102.1 100.0 101.7 105.8 101.1 102.5 100.1 100.6 101.4 103.1 106.3 107.8 103.3 100.6 100.9 101.8 102.3 102.9 102.3 Education 83.5 87.1 93.4 100.0 103.1 102.0 104.1 103.5 102.9 103.1 101.9 104.1 104.1 104.1 104.1 104.1 102.1 102.9 102.9 102.9 103.0 103.1 103.0 Catering services 84.9 91.1 95.8 100.0 104.5 102.2 104.0 105.4 106.3 109.2 102.7 103.5 104.0 104.4 104.9 105.3 105.8 106.0 105.5 107.4 108.9 109.3 109.6 Miscellaneous goods & services 88.8 94.5 98.1 100.0 104.1 102.1 103.9 104.4 105.9 106.4 103.6 103.6 104.0 104.0 104.4 104.2 104.6 105.7 105.8 106.1 106.2 106.5 106.7 HCPI 89.1 94.2 97.6 100.0 102.5 100.8 102.8 103.2 103.3 103.4 101.4 102.3 103.3 103.0 102.7 103.4 103.7 102.9 103.2 103.7 103.1 103.0 104.1 Producer price indices (domestic market) 91.0 93.3 97.4 100.0 102.4 101.3 102.2 102.6 103.3 105.9 101.8 102.1 102.2 102.4 102.6 102.3 102.9 103.1 103.1 103.6 104.3 106.5 106.8 Intermediate goods 89.6 91.4 96.9 100.0 103.5 101.9 103.3 104.1 104.7 109.1 102.5 103.0 103.3 103.7 104.0 103.7 104.7 104.4 104.5 105.3 106.1 110.4 110.8 Capital goods 94.8 94.7 97.0 100.0 100.2 99.8 99.6 100.5 100.8 101.2 99.6 99.5 99.3 100.0 100.1 100.4 100.9 100.9 100.7 100.9 101.4 101.0 101.4 Consumption goods 91.8 95.3 98.1 100.0 101.5 101.0 101.6 101.2 102.1 103.1 101.6 101.7 101.6 101.6 101.4 101.1 101.2 102.1 101.9 102.3 102.8 103.0 103.4 PRICE CONTROL1 Energy prices 81.1 83.3 89.4 100.0 108.0 104.7 109.6 111.9 105.9 102.6 104.6 107.8 111.4 109.7 110.4 112.7 112.6 106.2 105.5 105.9 103.6 100.4 103.7 Oil products 78.9 80.2 86.7 100.0 110.3 105.6 113.4 116.3 105.7 101.4 105.4 110.4 116.1 113.8 114.5 117.5 117.0 106.5 105.1 105.6 102.9 98.4 103.0 Electricity for households 90.4 93.8 98.6 100.0 101.6 100.8 100.8 102.0 102.7 101.7 100.8 100.8 100.8 100.8 100.8 102.7 102.7 102.7 102.7 102.7 101.9 101.0 102.4 Basic utilities 83.4 88.6 96.2 100.0 97.4 100.1 100.9 100.9 87.8 93.8 100.1 101.2 100.7 100.7 100.7 100.9 100.9 83.3 89.3 90.7 92.5 94.4 94.4 Transport & communications 91.5 95.2 97.9 100.0 101.5 101.2 101.6 101.6 101.6 101.9 101.6 101.6 101.6 101.6 101.6 101.6 101.6 101.6 101.6 101.6 101.7 101.8 102.2 Other controlled prices 86.0 89.8 95.7 100.0 102.6 101.8 102.2 103.2 103.3 104.9 101.9 102.2 102.2 102.3 103.2 103.2 103.2 103.2 103.3 103.3 104.2 105.1 105.3 Direct control - total 82.5 85.5 91.5 100.0 107.0 103.7 107.3 110.2 106.9 105.6 103.7 106.1 108.5 107.4 107.9 109.5 113.3 106.5 106.9 107.3 106.0 104.1 106.6 Source of data: SORS, calculations and estimates IMAD. Note: 1 the structure of groups varies, data published are not directly comparable to those published previously. Interest Rates and Investment Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. A 9 End year 2006 2007 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1112 1 2 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits - - - 0.47 0.32 0.40 0.38 0.36 0.34 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.28 0.27 0.28 0.27 0.33 0.33 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year - - - 3.34 2.96 3.30 3.23 3.02 3.03 2.99 2.98 2.86 2.81 2.82 2.80 2.81 2.84 2.83 2.91 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans 1-5 year fixed interest rate - - 4.18 4.99 4.56 4.01 4.67 4.68 4.80 4.51 4.26 4.74 4.57 4.60 4.42 5.19 4.29 5.16 5.44 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million 1-5 year fixed interest rate - 8.58 5.36 5.23 4.64 4.70 4.22 5.12 4.98 4.43 - 4.66 4.47 3.61 4.66 5.04 5.11 5.49 6.53 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operations | 3.21 2.25 2.00 2.02 2.78 2.25 2.25 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.75 2.75 3.00 3.00 3.25 3.25 3.50 3.50 3.50 INVESTMENT, outlays, in SIT m, since 2007 thousand EURO Total 524,626 610,923 760,662 772,675 824,957 70,523 51,609 63,277 52,510 56,768 62,748 55,592 56,808 62,610 58,911 86,544 147,057 283,943 287,486 Industry total 114,794 136,349 184,271 181,466 164,226 21,726 10,971 12,392 10,174 11,172 13,613 12,797 9,218 11,634 12,008 16,069 22,452 54,811 66,902 Energy sector 36,959 31,538 39,105 38,701 36,856 2,686 3,337 2,340 1,405 2,119 1,934 2,995 2,119 3,460 2,294 4,832 7,335 11,771 26,320 Manufacturing 77,835 104,811 145,163 142,765 127,370 19,040 7,634 10,052 8,769 9,053 11,679 9,802 7,099 8,174 9,714 11,237 15,117 43,040 40,582 Construction 8,937 11,350 21,470 129,609 170,369 8,392 8,929 10,808 7,472 11,717 11,122 11,561 15,119 14,507 13,065 14,565 43,112 97,608 68,472 Transport and communications 58,244 39,779 54,720 63,689 57,978 4,115 2,762 4,692 3,855 4,716 4,085 3,935 5,076 7,245 3,401 9,931 4,165 11,029 32,975 Trade 66,950 67,852 80,272 93,793 82,460 13,481 6,019 7,889 4,879 4,880 11,155 5,304 6,325 4,527 6,229 4,926 6,846 16,599 12,242 Hotels and restaurants 9,144 14,665 14,206 15,641 12,356 1,233 650 1,705 840 889 962 1,298 1,319 816 439 722 1,483 7,841 5,197 Financial and technical services 40,339 48,049 52,291 48,192 47,530 3,851 2,486 3,284 4,210 4,957 4,109 5,117 4,199 2,560 3,805 4,297 4,655 11,926 22,401 Other 226,220 292,876 353,432 240,285 290,038 17,725 19,792 22,507 21,080 18,437 17,702 15,580 15,552 21,321 19,964 36,034 64,344 84,129 79,297 In economic infrastructure, total1 162,078 177,777 223,096 180,751 197,802 11,917 11,312 11,724 7,283 13,947 12,868 13,319 16,649 16,725 13,348 19,366 49,344 89,490 105,197 Energy sector 36,959 46,562 46,469 42,212 36,857 2,686 3,337 2,340 1,405 2,119 1,934 2,995 2,119 3,460 2,294 4,832 7,335 11,771 26,320 Electricity supply 25,132 26,903 23,107 24,251 22,736 1,554 1,947 1,394 941 1,381 1,261 1,963 1,200 2,516 1,304 3,331 3,946 6,664 21,210 Gas supply 1,380 1,282 689 678 729 74 32 51 41 30 51 56 80 58 26 111 117 229 242 Hot water supply 1,168 2,725 2,027 2,564 2,640 73 205 211 41 140 90 240 125 216 240 346 714 1,540 898 Cold water supply 9,280 15,652 20,645 14,720 10,752 986 1,153 685 381 569 532 737 714 670 724 1,044 2,558 3,337 3,970 Transport infrastructure 125,119 131,215 176,627 138,539 160,945 9,231 7,975 9,384 5,878 11,828 10,934 10,324 14,530 13,265 11,054 14,534 42,009 77,719 78,876 Railways 16,924 1,717 1,822 2,615 6,677 78 123 586 608 571 372 558 1,487 1,653 77 493 70 590 1,360 Air traffic 618 1,774 2,660 3,462 2,120 135 216 73 10 207 101 49 469 96 123 139 502 1,508 2,028 Roads, motorways 81,467 103,849 141,157 106,040 136,142 6,791 5,887 5,968 3,760 9,044 8,994 9,224 11,516 11,064 10,310 13,150 40,435 72,863 62,228 Postal and telecom services 24,573 20,923 26,717 24,143 13,609 2,161 1,621 2,563 1,330 1,749 1,308 292 770 372 432 399 613 1,717 1,402 Other 1,538 2,952 4,271 2,279 2,397 66 128 195 171 257 157 201 287 80 112 354 389 1,041 11,858 Sources of data: SORS, BS, AP. Notes: a large infrastructure company has been included in the construction activity since September 2005. 1Outlays collected on the basis of data for individual investors. Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD Labour Market No. 4/2007 p. A 10 Number in thousand 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2005 2006 2006 2007 Q IV Q I Q II Q III Q IV 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 A FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 911.4 899.1 900.3 905.0 910.7 902.4 900.5 904.5 905.0 910.0 908.3 908.7 909.9 910.7 912.3 910.8 908.2 909.8 915.0 915.5 911.3 918.0 919.2 B PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (C+D) 808.7 801.4 807.5 813.1 824.8 811.0 807.5 814.3 814.1 816.5 814.1 817.3 819.9 823.6 827.4 825.2 825.2 829.5 833.7 836.7 833.0 838.0 841.5 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 45.4 37.7 41.2 38.7 38.9 40.7 38.7 39.0 38.9 38.8 39.5 39.6 39.2 39.1 39.0 38.8 38.7 38.7 38.6 38.6 38.4 43.0 43.1 In industry, construction 323.3 318.4 313.9 310.9 313.3 314.0 310.9 313.5 313.3 311.8 307.8 308.9 310.3 312.3 314.1 314.5 314.7 316.2 317.9 318.9 315.9 316.2 317.8 Of which: in manufacturing 243.1 238.9 236.1 233.7 227.9 235.7 233.4 233.0 230.9 229.8 227.5 227.3 227.0 227.5 228.0 227.4 227.2 227.8 229.1 229.9 228.7 228.9 229.6 In construction 63.4 63.3 62.2 61.7 69.9 62.7 61.9 64.9 66.9 66.5 65.1 66.3 67.9 69.4 70.5 71.6 72.0 72.8 73.3 73.5 71.9 72.1 73.0 In services 440.0 445.2 452.3 463.5 472.6 456.3 457.9 461.8 461.9 465.9 466.8 468.8 470.3 472.2 474.3 471.9 471.8 474.7 477.2 479.2 478.7 478.8 480.7 Of which: in public administration 45.9 47.7 49.9 49.1 50.2 50.3 49.3 49.7 49.8 49.9 49.7 50.1 50.3 50.4 50.6 50.5 50.3 50.2 50.3 50.2 49.9 49.8 49.7 in education, health-services social work 101.6 102.7 105.0 106.5 109.1 106.2 106.9 107.7 107.0 108.4 108.6 108.7 108.9 109.3 109.7 108.2 108.0 109.5 109.9 110.2 109.8 109.5 109.9 C FORMALLY EMPLOYED 1 721.4 722.1 724.4 731.6 741.6 727.8 726.4 732.9 732.6 734.4 731.1 734.2 737.0 740.5 744.2 742.1 742.0 746.1 750.1 752.9 749.2 749.5 752.9 In enterprises and organisations 654.6 656.0 658.7 666.2 675.1 661.8 662.4 667.1 666.6 668.6 667.3 669.7 671.5 674.2 676.9 674.7 674.7 678.2 681.6 684.3 681.7 682.8 685.6 In small scale sector 66.8 66.2 65.6 65.4 66.5 66.0 64.0 65.9 66.0 65.8 63.8 64.5 65.5 66.4 67.3 67.3 67.3 67.9 68.5 68.6 67.5 66.7 67.3 D SELF EMPLOYED AND FARMERS 87.3 79.2 83.1 81.5 83.3 83.2 81.1 81.4 81.5 82.0 83.0 83.1 82.9 83.0 83.2 83.1 83.2 83.5 83.6 83.8 83.8 88.5 88.6 E REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT 102.6 97.7 92.8 91.9 85.8 91.4 92.9 90.1 90.9 93.6 94.1 91.4 90.0 87.1 84.9 85.6 83.1 80.2 81.3 78.8 78.3 80.0 77.7 Female 52.5 51.6 49.3 49.4 47.0 48.6 48.8 48.6 49.7 50.6 50.5 49.6 49.1 47.7 46.8 47.9 46.4 44.6 44.9 43.3 42.6 43.2 42.1 By age: under 26 24.7 25.5 24.3 22.2 18.2 25.1 21.1 22.1 21.7 23.9 21.8 20.7 20.0 18.8 17.8 17.8 16.6 14.8 16.8 15.8 15.2 15.1 14.2 Older than 40 50.7 43.1 39.7 40.1 39.7 38.1 41.2 39.4 39.8 39.9 41.9 41.2 40.9 40.1 39.4 39.6 39.3 38.9 38.2 37.6 37.7 39.0 38.8 Unskilled 48.2 43.2 38.6 37.5 33.7 37.3 38.4 37.0 36.9 37.5 37.8 36.4 35.5 34.3 33.2 32.8 32.3 31.6 31.1 30.6 30.8 31.6 30.7 For more than 1 year 55.8 47.5 42.9 43.4 41.9 41.7 42.6 42.9 44.6 43.6 43.6 43.2 43.0 42.3 41.9 41.9 41.3 41.2 41.0 39.9 39.7 39.6 39.0 Those receiving benefits 24.4 24.3 22.3 23.3 22.7 21.4 23.6 22.9 23.5 23.2 25.2 25.3 23.7 24.2 22.8 22.9 22.7 21.7 19.9 19.4 18.9 N/A N/A F RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 11.3 10.9 10.3 10.2 9.4 10.1 10.3 10.0 10.0 10.3 10.4 10.1 9.9 9.6 9.3 9.4 9.1 8.8 8.9 8.6 8.6 8.7 8.4 G FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE -2.3 -10.2 1.5 8.0 5.2 -3.2 3.7 3.2 2.2 -1.0 0.6 0.4 1.2 0.8 1.6 -1.5 -2.5 1.5 5.3 0.5 -4.2 6.7 1.2 New unemployed first job seekers 21.4 25.4 26.0 21.7 18.6 9.5 3.3 3.4 6.3 8.6 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 5.8 1.4 1.0 1.3 0.8 Redundancies 66.0 68.8 69.6 67.2 63.8 18.8 18.6 14.7 17.0 17.0 5.0 5.5 4.9 5.1 4.4 5.6 4.5 5.1 4.8 5.0 5.0 7.6 3.8 Registered unemployed who found employment 52.2 50.5 54.3 53.9 57.4 12.8 14.9 14.1 12.9 11.9 4.4 6.1 4.9 5.5 4.3 3.5 4.6 5.3 5.1 5.0 3.5 5.1 4.4 Other unemployed erased out of register 39.9 47.3 46.6 33.1 39.2 15.5 5.5 7.4 8.2 12.1 2.6 3.4 2.6 3.5 3.3 2.4 3.4 4.1 4.4 3.9 3.1 2.0 2.5 Change in number of work permits for foreigners 2.1 3.5 -0.5 3.9 7.8 -1.9 -0.2 3.0 1.4 -0.3 0.7 1.9 1.6 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A Retirements 2 15.9 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.0 5.0 3.0 3.7 5.1 4.8 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.4 1.0 0.8 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.7 N/A Deaths 2 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Others who found employment 2 30.4 24.9 39.5 32.6 35.7 9.8 9.2 7.9 7.8 7.7 2.5 1.9 2.4 3.6 4.8 0.7 0.2 6.3 5.7 4.9 -0.1 N/A N/A H JOB VACANCIES 3 11.6 12.1 1 4.1 16.9 19.0 15.0 14.9 18.3 18.0 16.5 16.5 21.7 18.4 20.3 22.7 17.7 16.4 22.7 19.5 16.9 15.9 20.0 17.8 For fixed term, in % 74.4 73.8 73.7 75.6 75.3 72.9 73.8 76.4 77.9 73.7 71.4 76.6 75.4 73.7 75.5 75.5 78.5 78.7 77.9 78.0 76.4 77.1 75.1 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 35.3 39.7 39.7 41.6 48.3 39.2 38.9 41.3 43.2 43.1 43.7 45.7 47.2 48.1 48.9 49.4 50.2 50.5 50.9 51.0 50.7 N/A N/A As % of labour force (I/A) 3.9 4.4 4.4 4.6 5.3 4.3 4.3 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 N/A N/A Sources of data: SORS, PDII, ESS. Notes: nin January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. Data for previous years dating back to January 2000 have also been calculated according to the new methodology. 2Estimated by IMAD, based on data by PDII and ESS; 3According to ESS. Wages, Competitiveness, Exchange Rate Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. A 11 2006 2006 2007 2004 Qi Qii Qiii Qiv 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, in SIT, since 2007 in EUR Total 264,403 277,279 290,635 281,562 283,981 286,917 309,709 277,403 285,690 279,896 286,316 285,731 283,047 290,148 287,557 293,121 333,799 302,207 1,250 1,213 Agriculture, fishing 215,981 224,253 236,822 227,817 229,953 234,180 255,337 222,596 232,932 224,718 233,088 232,053 227,255 236,221 239,065 246,013 275,462 244,538 1,030 978 A Agriculture 216,252 224,225 236,681 227,475 230,000 234,330 255,564 222,116 232,534 224,525 233,168 232,308 227,341 236,385 239,263 246,477 275,255 244,960 1,030 978 B Fishing 205,207 218,670 236,027 241,535 228,451 228,286 245,222 242,475 248,433 233,254 229,976 222,124 223,864 229,792 231,201 225,990 283,455 226,221 1,007 984 Industry, construction 229,615 243,067 256,362 248,540 249,392 252,418 275,098 241,494 254,527 242,758 252,268 253,148 247,126 258,208 251,919 259,650 302,333 263,312 1,120 1,059 C Mining and quarrying 324,410 344,670 360,110 347,854 355,425 347,764 390,549 345,434 349,545 345,081 361,792 359,403 341,267 357,349 344,675 356,344 465,162 350,142 1,516 1,488 D Manufacturing 225,806 238,985 252,162 245,762 245,578 248,069 269,029 238,025 251,857 239,263 247,879 249,593 243,298 253,828 247,080 255,616 293,054 258,417 1,113 1,046 E Electricity, gas & water supply 322,478 353,836 373,743 347,421 350,785 355,321 439,645 335,951 353,915 341,094 360,776 350,485 347,759 364,848 353,355 364,284 550,174 404,477 1,539 1,442 F Construction 214,536 224,794 238,698 227,539 232,640 239,102 253,871 224,250 233,339 225,300 236,219 236,402 231,933 243,748 241,624 245,043 271,568 245,003 1,018 996 Production services 242,355 253,747 266,326 256,947 260,251 261,841 286,264 253,401 261,993 257,312 262,884 260,558 258,907 263,514 263,104 269,263 309,080 280,448 1,151 1,128 G Distributive trade 233,682 244,880 258,521 248,976 252,136 254,723 278,198 246,450 252,962 249,304 254,451 252,654 252,603 255,915 255,650 263,133 294,774 276,686 1,127 1,097 H Hotels & restaurants 196,458 202,895 211,873 205,712 209,789 210,678 221,166 203,880 206,041 207,644 212,160 209,563 207,008 213,505 211,520 213,344 225,866 224,287 898 873 I Transport, storage & communications 284,881 299,377 310,080 299,517 302,935 302,254 334,933 292,584 309,176 299,354 306,447 303,005 297,889 304,311 304,562 309,630 379,872 315,296 1,324 1,317 Business services 312,967 325,355 340,552 325,652 332,172 328,901 375,481 321,702 330,931 330,016 335,420 331,080 323,043 332,310 331,351 332,557 428,155 365,729 1,448 1,412 J Financial intermediation 388,044 413,896 443,595 402,474 431,824 415,908 523,782 397,594 413,684 426,939 440,529 428,004 404,927 414,649 428,147 415,140 668,928 487,279 1,797 1,810 K Real estate 283,421 292,763 304,295 297,356 296,412 298,125 324,256 293,543 300,999 294,896 297,842 296,499 293,992 303,078 297,304 303,947 345,433 323,388 1,326 1,274 Public services 319,911 330,580 341,999 334,543 336,529 343,246 353,578 334,065 334,193 334,641 337,356 337,588 341,724 343,977 344,037 347,973 360,551 352,211 1,449 1,433 L Public administration 322,928 333,302 343,572 338,015 338,545 346,124 351,537 339,765 335,376 335,054 339,019 341,562 344,886 345,285 348,201 351,350 353,047 350,213 1,450 1,442 M Education 325,463 340,967 357,301 347,883 350,291 362,784 368,215 348,008 349,399 348,245 349,298 353,330 360,988 363,395 363,969 365,467 370,135 369,042 1,516 1,518 N Health & social work 310,990 316,827 325,245 318,848 322,107 323,843 336,103 315,908 318,501 321,717 324,668 319,936 323,527 325,081 322,920 329,682 341,294 337,332 1,387 1,344 O Other social & personal services 316,566 325,159 332,137 322,738 324,515 324,566 356,170 320,575 322,783 323,475 327,509 322,560 320,629 328,908 324,162 330,619 395,357 342,534 1,395 1,368 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS, 2001=100 Foreign exchange rates Effective exchange rate1, nominal 94.6 94.0 94.1 93.6 94.1 94.4 94.3 93.5 93.7 94.0 94.1 94.3 94.4 94.3 94.4 94.2 94.2 94.4 94.3 94.5 Real (relative consumer prices) 105.2 104.9 105.6 104.2 105.8 106.2 106.0 103.9 104.7 105.4 106.2 105.9 105.7 106.1 106.7 105.7 106.0 106.3 105.6 105.3 Real (relative producer prices)2 103.1 102.5 101.6 101.3 101.3 101.2 102.5 101.2 101.6 101.3 101.2 101.3 101.1 100.7 101.9 102.2 102.3 102.9 103.4 103.5 SIT/US$ 192.4 192.7 191.0 199.3 190.9 188.0 185.9 200.4 199.5 195.9 187.6 189.2 188.9 187.1 188.1 190.0 186.2 181.4 - - SIT/EUR 238.9 239.6 239.6 239.6 239.6 239.6 239.6 239.6 239.6 239.6 239.6 239.6 239.6 239.6 239.6 239.6 239.6 239.6 - - US$/EUR 1 .2433 1.2448 1.2557 1.2020 1.2564 1.2741 1 .2902 1.1938 1.2020 1.2271 1.2770 1.2650 1.2684 1.2811 1 .2727 1.2611 1 .2881 1.3213 1.2999 1.3074 Sources of data: SORS, AP, BS, OECD Main Economic Indicators, calculations IMAD. Notes: The September 2005 data on the monthly gross wage per employee were calculated according to the new methodology for 2004 and beyond. 1Change of methodology: the calculation of the effective exchange rate includes the currencies/prices of Slovenia's 17 trading partners (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Italy, France, Netherlands, Spain, Denmark, United Kingdom, Sweden, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, USA, Switzerland, Japan); weights are the shares of individual trading partners in Slovenian exports and imports of goods within manufacturing (5-8 SITC) in 2001-2003; exports are double weighted. Producer prices in manufacturing activities. Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD Public Finance No. 4/2007 p. A 12 Current prices in SIT million, . 2006 2006 2007 since 2007 in EURO thousand 2003 2004 2005 2006 QI QII QIII QIV 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 CONSOLIDATED GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 2,477,425 2,683,055 2,869,949 3,105,421 684,600 817,212 729,600 874,009 273,189 250,235 249,793 257,716 222,090 276,487 287,812 309,710 1,060,993 Current revenues 2,440,298 2,609,053 2,759,987 2,970,410 665,816 782,080 706,346 816,169 266,329 231,435 242,449 249,677 214,220 259,442 265,390 291,337 1,034,281 Tax revenues 2,291,071 2,446,899 2,608,230 2,818,643 637,904 746,742 665,880 768,117 252,030 219,703 232,024 234,557 199,299 243,250 252,118 272,749 994,506 Taxes on income and profit 460,520 506,878 537,260 655,486 130,290 235,706 134,797 154,693 71,843 42,467 43,014 47,180 44,603 41,871 49,212 63,610 188,151 Social security contributions 839,216 899,400 955,611 1,013,970 242,274 248,707 250,117 272,872 82,263 83,279 83,794 82,071 84,253 84,480 86,391 102,001 358,356 Taxes on payroll and workforce 107,424 117,676 126,097 113,334 26,465 27,214 27,376 32,279 8,885 9,262 9,324 8,803 9,249 9,226 9,804 13,249 32,835 Taxes on property 34,419 39,513 40,834 45,322 6,440 10,171 15,126 13,585 4,178 4,121 4,448 6,898 3,780 3,402 7,140 3,043 6,207 Domestic taxes on goods and services 814,577 856,610 938,118 977,082 229,658 221,864 235,012 290,547 83,834 79,496 90,261 88,669 56,082 103,301 97,968 89,279 403,169 Taxes on international trade & transactions 34,653 19,339 9,360 12,145 2,638 2,988 2,653 3,866 1,023 1,036 947 746 960 895 1,528 1,444 5,460 Other taxes 261 7,484 950 1,304 138 92 799 275 3 40 237 190 372 75 76 125 329 Non-tax revenues 149,227 162,154 151,756 151,767 27,912 35,338 40,465 48,051 14,299 11,733 10,425 15,119 14,921 16,192 13,272 18,588 39,775 Capital revenues 15,857 20,751 27,181 39,971 7,032 7,299 10,175 15,465 3,186 2,133 2,504 2,869 4,802 4,651 6,163 4,651 6,450 Grants 13,384 1,877 2,173 1,287 1 78 344 356 409 131 90 97 105 154 61 177 1 71 713 Transferred revenues 7,887 7,536 8,140 10,259 83 75 117 9,985 32 34 55 -32 94 26 9,483 476 1,610 Receipts from the EU budget - 43,838 72,469 83,494 11,492 27,414 12,607 31,981 3,511 16,543 4,689 5,098 2,820 12,307 6,599 13,076 17,940 CONSOLIDATED GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE TOTAL EXPENDITURE 2,555,894 2,768,427 2,941,756 3,165,327 715,855 802,516 721,094 925,862 279,009 245,445 238,539 234,980 247,575 265,622 285,225 375,015 985,663 Current expenditure 1,225,523 1,234,113 1,283,018 1,363,301 337,178 349,651 308,809 367,663 115,094 102,211 103,403 101,202 104,203 115,023 117,158 135,482 489,698 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditure 662,776 700,349 722,822 762,128 182,074 195,534 188,138 196,382 73,769 61,081 61,910 61,987 64,240 63,616 64,797 67,969 262,416 Expenditure on goods and services 451,440 429,861 457,942 496,830 108,972 125,618 111,986 150,253 36,465 39,008 38,815 37,555 35,616 41,887 46,338 62,028 192,295 Interest payments 92,661 91,933 89,180 90,199 43,396 25,453 5,439 15,910 3,826 1,150 1,519 706 3,215 8,325 5,011 2,574 32,427 Reserves 18,646 11,969 13,074 14,145 2,736 3,046 3,246 5,117 1,034 972 1,159 954 1,133 1,195 1,012 2,909 2,559 Current transfers 1,097,369 1,249,909 1,341,641 1,420,064 317,302 397,591 332,290 372,882 146,394 123,641 113,895 109,214 109,182 110,952 122,357 139,573 434,781 Subsidies 69,470 77,571 91,362 96,556 8,908 42,366 13,742 31,540 9,847 13,583 7,395 2,952 3,395 5,146 6,475 19,918 6,748 Current transfers to individuals and households 986,100 1,053,417 1,109,197 1,167,404 279,308 313,688 280,259 294,149 124,460 95,105 93,257 94,521 92,482 92,935 102,296 98,919 388,089 Current transfers to non-profit institut., other current domestic transfers 36,722 113,675 134,930 149,548 28,405 39,465 35,971 45,707 11,227 14,055 12,411 11,551 12,008 12,583 12,909 20,214 39,629 Current transfers abroad 5,077 5,247 6,154 6,556 680 2,071 2,319 1,485 860 898 832 190 1,297 288 676 521 315 Capital expenditure 142,131 151,305 156,784 216,016 29,681 26,537 42,704 117,094 8,724 10,452 11,239 14,307 17,158 19,780 26,348 70,967 44,768 Capital transfers 90,871 92,464 91,874 96,956 9,175 15,694 19,384 52,703 4,113 5,502 4,478 4,042 10,864 13,658 15,861 23,184 8,086 Payments to the EU budget - 40,637 68,438 68,990 22,520 13,044 17,907 15,520 4,684 3,639 5,524 6,215 6,168 6,210 3,501 5,810 8,330 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -78,469 -85,372 -71,807 -59,906 - - - - - - - - - - - - - Source of data: MF Bulletin. Note: in line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the state are not consolidated. Main Indicators Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. A 13 Real growth rates, in % 2001 2002 2007 2008 2003 Spring Forecast 2007 GDP 2.7 3.5 2.7 4.4 4.0 5.2 4.7 4.4 GDP per capita, in EUR 11,094 11,866 12,461 13,146 13,807 14,808 15,900 17,132 GDP per capita, PPS1 15,400 16,000 16,800 18,200 19,200 - - - Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 6.4 6.4 6.7 6.3 6.6 6.0 5.7 5.4 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 2.2 3.8 3.1 3.9 3.7 4.0 3.8 3.6 Inflation2, annual average 8.4 7.5 5.6 3.6 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.5 INTERNATIONAL TRADE - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS Exports of goods and services3 6.3 6.7 3.1 12.5 10.5 10.0 9.7 9.2 Exports of goods 7.0 6.4 4.4 12.8 10.3 10.8 10.1 9.4 Exports of services 3.2 8.0 -2.5 10.9 11.7 6.4 7.6 8.0 Imports of goods and services3 3.0 4.8 6.7 13.4 7.0 10.4 8.7 8.6 Imports of goods 3.2 4.4 7.3 14.6 6.8 10.5 8.8 8.6 Imports of services 1.8 7.5 3.0 5.5 8.4 9.5 7.8 8.4 Current account balance, In EUR million 38 247 -196 -720 -547 -773 -629 -273 Average exchange rate, SIT/EUR 217.2 226.2 233.7 238.9 239.64 239.60 - - Foreign exchange reserves, In EUR million 6,514 7,842 7,703 7,484 8,833 8,005 8054 - Gross external debt, In EUR million 10,386 11,524 13,225 15,343 19,614 23,718 24,4245 - DOMESTIC DEMAND - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS (share in GDP in %) Private consumption 56.6 55.5 55.8 54.8 54.9 54.0 53.4 52.5 Government consumption 20.0 19.7 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.3 19.1 18.9 Gross fixed capital formation 24.1 22.6 23.3 24.5 24.4 25.8 26.2 26.7 CONSOLIDATED GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE BY THE GFS - IMF METHODOLOGY (as a % of GDP) General government revenue 42.7 40.6 42.6 42.8 43.3 43.66 42.9 41.7 General government expenditure 44.0 43.5 44.0 44.1 44.4 44.46 43.8 42.5 Surplus (deficit) -1.3 -2.9 -1.4 -1.3 -1.1 -0.86 -0.9 -0.8 Sources of data: SORS, BS, MF, calculations, estimate and forecast by the IMAD - Spring Forecast 2007. Notes: 1Eurostat, March 2007; 2the consumer price index; 3balance of payments statistics (exports F.O.B., imports F.O.B.), changes in exchange rates and prices in foreign markets eliminated by calculating real rates; 4end February. From 1 January 2007, foreign exchange reserves of the Bank of Slovenia include foreign cash in convertible currencies, deposits abroad, and first class securities of issuers from outside the Euro area in foreign currency. The drop in data values is the result of Slovenia's entry to the Economic and Monetary Union.; 5end January; preliminary data of Ministry of finance. International Comparisons / I Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. P 14 Real GDP growth GDP per capita in PPS1 EU25=100 Inflation2 (annual average) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2001 2002 2003 2004 2003 2004 2005 2006 Slovenia 2.7 4.4 4.0 5.2 74.5 77.4 79.9 81.9 5.7 3.7 2.5 2.5 EU27 1.3 2.5 1.7 3.0 95.6 95.8 95.9 96.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A EU25 1.3 2.4 1.7 2.9 100 100 100 100 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.2 Euro Area 0.8 2.0 1.4 2.7 107.9 107.5 106.6 106.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 Belgium 1.0 3.0 1.1 3.2 117.6 118.9 119.4 118.0 1.5 1.9 2.5 2.3 Bulgaria 5.0 6.6 6.2 6.1 28.4 31.1 32.4 33.7 2.3 6.1 6.0 7.4 Czech Republic 3.6 4.2 6.1 6.0* 67.7 70.7 72.1 73.6 -0.1 2.6 1.6 2.1 Denmark 0.4 2.1 3.1 3.2 121.4 119.3 119.4 121.8 2.0 0.9 1.7 1.9 Germany -0.2 1.2 0.9 2.7 108.5 112.5 111.1 110.0 1.0 1.8 1.9 1.8 Estonia 7.1 8.1 10.5 11.4 46.8 51.2 53.4 59.8 1.4 3.0 4.1 4.4 Greece 4.8 4.7 3.7 4.3 77.2 80.2 81.4 84.0 3.4 3.0 3.5 3.3 Spain 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.9 95.2 96.7 96.6 97.9 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.6 France 1.1 2.3 1.2 2.2* 112.0 107.7 107.7 108.1 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.9 Ireland 4.3 4.3 5.5 5.3* 132.3 134.4 135.7 138.8 4.0 2.3 2.2 2.7 Italy 0.0 1.2 0.1 1.9 110.0 106.0 103.1 100.7 2.8 2.3 2.2 2.2 Cyprus 1.8 4.2 3.9 3.8 82.6 85.2 87.6 88.9 4.0 1.9 2.0 2.2 Latvia 7.2 8.7 10.6 11.9 38.7 41.2 43.7 48.6 2.9 6.2 6.9 6.6 Lithuania 10.3 7.3 7.6 7.5 41.9 47.1 49.0 52.1 -1.1 1.2 2.7 3.8 Luxembourg 1.3 3.6 4.0 6.2 220.7 236.7 240.8 251.0 2.5 3.2 3.8 3.0 Hungary 4.1 4.9 4.2 3.9 59.1 60.8 61.3 62.5 4.7 6.8 3.5 4.0 Malta -2.3 0.4 3.0 2.9 74.9 74.3 72.1 71.7 1.9 2.7 2.5 2.6 Netherlands 0.3 2.0 1.5 2.9 125.3 123.8 124.6 125.5 2.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 Austria 1.1 2.4 2.0 3.1 120.0 123.4 123.4 122.9 1.3 2.0 2.1 1.7 Poland 3.8 5.3 3.5 5.8 46.3 46.9 48.7 49.7 0.7 3.6 2.2 1.3 Portugal -0.7 1.3 0.5 1.3 79.5 73.5 72.1 71.7 3.3 2.5 2.1 3.0 Romania 5.2 8.5 4.1 7.7 28.1 29.9 32.6 34.2 15.3 11.9 9.1 6.6 Slovakia 4.2 5.4 6.0 8.3 51.0 52.8 54.4 57.1 8.4 7.5 2.8 4.3 Finland 1.8 3.7 2.9 5.5 114.7 108.6 111.1 110.5 1.3 0.1 0.8 1.3 Sweden 1.7 4.1 2.9 4.4 113.7 115.4 115.4 114.7 2.3 1.0 0.8 1.5 United Kingdom 2.7 3.3 1.9 2.8 116.1 116.1 118.0 117.6 1.4 1.3 2.1 2.3 USA 2.5 3.9 3.2 3.3 145.4 146.3 147.9 149.9 2.3 2.7 3.4 N/A Sources of data: SORS; Eurostat. New Cronos. Notes: 1PPS - Purchasing Power Standard. Data for 2005 were published by Eurostat on 15 June 2006. 2 Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices for EU countries and Consumer Price Index for the USA. N/A - not available *Autumn Forecast European Commission International Comparisons / II Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 3/2007 p. P 15 Survey Unemployment Rate Current account balance1, % GDP General Government Balance2, % GDP General Government Gross Debt2, % GDP 2003 2004 2005 2006 2002 2003 2004 2005 2002 2003 2004 2005 2002 2003 2004 2005 Slovenia 6.7 6.3 6.5 6.0 -0.8 -2.6 -2.0 -2.7 -2.8 -2.3 -1.5 -1.4 28.6 28.9 28.4 27.8 EU 27 9.0 9.0 8.7 7.9 0.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.7 -3.1 -2.7 -2.4 -1.7 62.1 62.5 62.9 61.7 EU25 9.0 9.0 8.7 7.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A -3.1 -2.7 -2.4 -1.7 62.1 62.5 63.3 62.2 Euro Area 8.7 8.8 8.6 7.9 0.5 0.8 0.0 -0.1 -3.0 -2.8 -2.5 -1.6 69.2 69.7 70.5 69.0 Belgium 8.2 8.4 8.4 8.2 4.5 3.6 2.5 2.3 0.1 0.0 -2.3 0.2 98.6 94.3 93.2 89.1 Bulgaria 13.7 12.0 10.1 9.0 -5.5 -6.6 -12.0 -15.8 -0.9 2.2 1.9 3.3 45.9 37.9 29.2 22.8 Czech Republic 7.8 8.3 7.9 7.1 -6.5 -6.3 -2.7 -4.1 -6.6 -2.9 -3.5 -2.9 30.1 30.7 30.4 30.4 Denmark 5.4 5.5 4.8 3.9 3.4 3.1 3.6 2.5 0.0 2.0 4.7 4.2 45.8 44.0 36.3 30.2 Germany 9.0 9.5 9.5 8.4 2.0 3.9 4.2 4.7 -4.0 -3.7 -3.2 -1.7 63.9 65.7 67.9 67.9 Estonia 10.0 9.7 7.9 5.9 -11.5 -12.5 -11.1 -14.2 2.0 2.3 2.3 3.8 5.7 5.2 4.4 4.1 Greece 9.7 10.5 9.8 8.9 -10.0 -9.5 -9.2 -11.4 -6.2 -7.9 -5.5 -2.6 107.8 108.5 107.5 104.6 Spain 11.1 10.6 9.2 8.5 -4.0 -5.9 -7.5 -8.5 0.0 -0.2 1.1 1.8 48.8 46.2 43.2 39.9 France 9.4 9.6 9.7 9.4 0.2 -0.6 -2.1 -2.0 -4.1 -3.6 -3.0 -2.5 62.4 64.3 66.2 63.9 Ireland 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.4 0.0 -1.0 -3.1 -3.3 0.4 1.4 1.0 2.9 31.2 29.7 27.4 24.9 Italy 8.4 8.0 7.7 6.8 -0.9 -0.5 -1.2 -2.0 -3.5 -3.5 -4.2 -4.4 104.3 103.8 106.2 106.8 Cyprus 4.1 4.6 5.2 4.7 -2.2 -5.0 -5.6 -5.9 -6.3 -4.1 -2.3 -1.5 69.1 70.3 69.2 65.3 Latvia 10.5 10.4 8.9 6.8 -8.2 -12.9 -12.6 -21.1 -1.6 -1.0 -0.2 0.4 1 4.4 14.5 12.0 10.0 Lithuania 12.4 11.4 8.3 5.6 -6.8 -7.5 -6.9 -10.7 -1.3 -1.5 -0.5 -0.3 21.2 19.4 18.6 18.2 Luxembourg 3.7 5.1 4.5 4.7 8.0 11.8 11.1 8.6 0.4 -1.2 -0.3 0.1 6.3 6.6 6.1 6.8 Hungary 5.9 6.1 7.2 7.5 -7.9 -8.4 -6.8 -5.9 -7.2 -6.5 -7.8 -9.2 58.0 59.4 61.7 66.0 Malta 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.3 -2.8 -6.4 -8.3 -6.3 -10.0 -5.0 -3.1 -2.6 70.4 73.9 72.4 66.5 Netherlands 3.7 4.6 4.7 3.9 6.1 8.6 7.1 9.9 -3.1 -1.8 -0.3 0.6 52.0 52.6 52.7 48.7 Austria 4.3 4.8 5.2 4.8 1.7 2.1 2.9 3.7 -1.6 -1.2 -1.6 -1.1 64.6 63.9 63.5 62.2 Poland 19.6 19.0 17.7 13.8 -2.1 -4.4 -1.7 -2.3 -6.3 -5.7 -4.3 -3.9 47.1 45.7 47.1 47.8 Portugal 6.3 6.7 7.6 7.7 -6.5 -8.0 -9.6 -9.8 -2.9 -3.3 -6.1 -3.9 56.8 58.2 63.6 64.7 Romania 7.0 8.1 7.2 7.3 -4.8 -5.0 -8.7 -10.3 -1.5 -1.5 -1.4 -1.9 21.5 18.8 15.8 12.4 Slovakia 17.6 18.2 16.3 13.4 -2.1 -2.5 -7.9 -7.7 -2.7 -2.4 -2.8 -3.4 42.4 41.5 34.5 30.7 Finland 9.0 8.8 8.4 7.7 5.9 7.7 4.9 5.9 2.5 2.3 2.7 3.9 44.3 44.1 41.4 39.1 Sweden 5.6 6.3 7.4 7.0 6.6 6.5 5.8 7.0 -0.9 0.8 2.1 2.2 53.5 52.4 52.2 46.9 United Kingdom 4.9 4.7 4.8 5.3 -1.3 -1.6 -2.4 -3.4 -3.2 -3.1 -3.1 -2.8 38.8 40.3 42.2 43.5 USA 6.0 5.5 5.1 4.6 -4.7 -5.6 -6.2 -6.1 -4.6 -4.4 N/A N/A 62.5 63.4 N/A N/A Sources of data: SORS; Eurostat. Notes: 1EU25 and euro area aggregates are adjusted for reporting errors concerning intra-EU trade ; 2 data from Eurostat news release on 23 October 2006. Graphs Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. A 16 INDUSTRY indices: average 2000=100 trend indices by the TRAMO-SEATS method FREIGHT TRANSPORT BY ROAD AND RAIL (mio tonne km) 2004 QII QIII QIV 2005 QII QIII QIV 2006 QII QIII QIV QI QI QI GOODS TRADE FOB, EXCL. INTERCURRENCY CHANGES 12-month cummulatives in EUR, bn ] BALANCE (right)-EXPORTS o IMPORTS < O O & REAL INDICES OF CONSTRUCTION PUT IN PLACE indices: average 2000=100; trend indices by the TRAMO-SEATS method -CONSTRUCTION --BUII DINGS .......CIVIL ENGINEERING f * * / - ^f * V 3 £ ® OVERNIGHT STAYS TOTAL indices: average 1992=100; trend indices by the TRAMO-SEATS method -ORIGINAL INDICES TREND INDICES EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT -EMPLOYMENT, indices 2000=100 i—UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (right axis) 80 500 50 0 14.0 4 3 12.5 2 11.0 0 96 9 7 92 Graphs Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2007 p. A 17 NET WAGES AND OTHER REMUNERATION, in EUR million PAYMENTS FOR INVESTMENT in EUR million, constant 2000 prices OT Œ ti Ol .Q 13