117 UDC: 332.6:351.777.6:546.815(73-43) DOI: 10.5379/urbani-izziv-en-2010-21-02-005 Ermanno AFFUSO Christophe Vincent de PARISOT Chau-Sa HO Diane HITE The impact of hazardous waste on property values: The effect of lead pollution This paper examines the impact of lead pollution on property values in Anniston, Alabama, one of the most polluted cities in the US. A hedonic house price analysis enabled us to examine the extent of lead contamination's effect on property values there, as well as property value losses due to the presence of an army depot. We estimated that lead cleanup would provide an increased property value of $1,140 per household and found that living 1 km closer to the polluting sites reduces property values by approximately 2%, a figure consistent with previous research regarding the connection between environmental disamenities and property values. Keywords: hedonic analysis, environmental disamenities, externalities, urban economics 1 Introduction 2 Literature review The social costs of lead contamination are well documented, including both measurable health costs and difficult-to-meas-ure effects on the IQs and wages of those affected. The Pew Center on the States (2010) found that over the lifetime of each US birth cohort, lead exposure increased national healthcare expenses by $11 to $53 million, resulted in lifetime lost earnings of $190 to $268 billion, increased special education expenses by $297 to $413 million and increased the costs resulting from behavioural and criminal problems by upwards of $1.7 billion. Thus, for the lifetime of those born at a particular time in the US, the total increase in social costs exceeds $192 billion, suggesting that decreasing human lead exposure would result in a non-trivial social benefit. Studies of the social costs resulting from lead exposure neglect an important aspect that affects both the private and local public government sectors: decreases in residential property values. When property values decrease, local tax revenues are negatively impacted, causing reductions in public goods and services in affected areas. Our hypothesis is that lead pollution has a negative impact on property values, and we set out measure the size and statistical significance of the impact. To test our hypothesis, we analysed cases of lead contamination in bodies of water and soil, and then used a hedonic price model to determine the effect on property values. For the hedonic model (Rosen, 1974), the valuation of a good is strongly dependent on its attributes and characteristics. The price of the good can therefore be considered the sum of expenditures on its individual characteristics, where the prices of characteristics are implicitly determined in the model. The property value in our model was thus a function of its characteristics: P(c) with i = 1, 2 , ... , n for each of the n characteristics. Point c^ is an equilibrium point on a hyperplane of n-dimensional space, and each point represents the value of the characteristic of the good at that particular point. The hedonic model determines a competitive equilibrium on this hyperplane. P(c.) is therefore determined by the market conditions that are driving buyers and sellers to make choices. Choices made by agents within the market are optimal for both buyers and sellers and represent a trade-off among the set of all possible choices. The extent to which a disamenity affects property values can be determined by regressing property values based upon property characteristics. This article is organized as follows: the next section presents existing studies in this area, section 3 presents the study case, section 4 describes the data, section 5 presents the econometric model, results from the regression models are discussed in section 6, and the final section concludes the article. There are several examples in the literature of the use of he-donic analysis to determine the value of non-market goods and to assess environmental and social costs through changes in property values. Diane Hite et al. (2000) used a hedonic house price model to quantify the economic impact of environmental disamenities on property values. That article focused on the effect of open and closed landfills on residential real estate prices. They found that closing landfills does not completely eliminate the social costs. It was also found that disamenities led to reductions in property values, contributing to significant loss of property tax revenues. Chau-Sa Ho and Hite (2008) investigated the effects of environmental health risks such as toxic waste dumping, the number of Superfund sites and cancer mortality on property values in the southeast US. They used a simultaneous spatial 2SLS model including hedonic price as a function of housing, neighbourhood, county and environmental characteristics. They found that property value is negatively affected by toxic waste dumping and cancer mortality. Jeff Anstine (2003) examined the impact of two noxious facilities on property values: a rubber-compounding factory that emits foul odours and visible air pollution and a heavy-metals manufacturing facility that uses low-level depleted uranium in its production process. He found that only noticeable disamenities impact the property value. Brid Gleeson Hanna (2005) tested the hypotheses that communities where polluting factories are present have lower property values and lower incomes compared to communities in cleaner areas. The findings suggest that living a mile closer to a polluting factory reduces property values by only about 1.9%, which is a smaller figure compared to other existing studies (although similar to our results). Hedonic models have also been used outside the US. Anish Neupane and Kent Gustavson (2006) examined the impact of a contaminated site in Sydney, Nova Scotia and found a large negative effect on property values situated within a few hundred metres of the site. Overall, property value losses from the contaminated site in Sydney were estimated to be CAD 36 million. Arief Anshory Yusuf and Budy P. Resosudarmo (2007) determined the value of clean air in Jakarta using the hedonic model, regressing monthly rental prices based upon the structural characteristics of housing and the environmental characteristics (including the presence of six pollutants). Their results demonstrated that households would pay $38.72 per month to eliminate lead pollution (it is notable that lead was the only pollutant in the model that had a 5% significance level). 3 The study area Lead is a chemical element with the symbol Pb and an atomic weight of207.2 g/mol. It is considered a heavy metal, although this is a meaningless and misleading definition according to the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry (Duffus, 2002). Lead has ecotoxic properties, meaning that humans do not have an enzymatic system for homeostatic control of the substance. ^e US Environmental Protection Agency (2009) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2009) reported that lead poisoning (or saturnism) can cause a variety of negative health effects including behavioural and learning disorders. Individuals can be exposed to lead through air, water and food contamination. ^e fact that lead is colourless, odourless and flavourless increases the risk of exposure among individuals that use water from wells close to contaminated bodies of water. Although lead is poorly soluble in water, adjacent soils where lead concentrations are high can contaminate bodies of water via dissolution of Pb++ ions into the water (the water need only be slightly acidic). ^e soil itself can be contaminated by lead as a result of flaking lead paints, battery and other manufacturing processes, incinerators and the disposition of lead particles on the soil surface from vehicles using leaded fuel. Lead was used widely for many years until studies discovered the extent of potential hazards, especially for children under 6 years old with developing brains. Michael D. Lewin et al. (1999), using a multivariate linear regression model, predicted children's blood lead levels based on soil lead levels at four Superfund sites. ^eir model[1] demonstrated a significant positive association between soil lead levels and lead found in children. Anniston represents a natural laboratory in which to implement a model and test the effects of lead pollution on property values. Anniston was the location of the Solutia Plant (Monsanto Corp.), which produced polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) between 1920 and 1970 (the date that PCB production