2. NOVEMBER 2004 2 NOVEMBER 2004 20 TRGOVINA IN DRUGE STORITVENE DEJAVNOSTI DISTRIBUTIVE TRADE AND OTHER SERVICE ACTIVITIES št./No 38 št./No 318 Statistične informacije, št. 318/2004 2 Rapid Reports No 318/2004 Statistične informacije, št. 318/2004 Rapid Reports No 318/2004 3 Statistične informacije, št. 318/2004 4 Rapid Reports No 318/2004 Statistične informacije, št. 318/2004 Rapid Reports No 318/2004 5 METODOLOŠKA POJASNILA METHODOLOGICAL EXPLANATIONS NAMEN STATISTIČNEGA RAZISKOVANJA PURPOSE OF THE STATISTICAL SURVEY Namen kvalitativne Ankete o poslovnih tendencah v trgovini na drobno (vprašalnik PA-TRG) je mesečno pridobivanje informacij o trenutnih stanjih glavnih ekonomskih kazalcev ter ocenitev njihovega gibanja v naslednjih mesecih. Rezultati anket so osnova za izračun kazalca zaupanja v trgovini na drobno in kazalca gospodarske klime, ki vključuje poleg kazalca zaupanja v trgovini na drobno tudi kazalec zaupanja pri potrošnikih in kazalec zaupanja v predelovalnih dejavnostih. The purpose of the qualitative Survey on Business Tendency (questionnaire PA-TRG) is to get monthly information about current situations of major economic indicators and to evaluate their movement in the following months. The results of the survey are the basis for evaluation of the confidence indicator in retail trade and latter on also for the sentiment indicator, which also includes the consumer confidence indicator and the confidence indicator in manufacturing. Panelno anketo o poslovnih tendencah v trgovini na drobno izvajamo v Sloveniji od januarja 1999 s poenotenim vprašalnikom, na podlagi poenotene metodologije in z enako periodiko, kakor jo izvajajo v državah članicah Evropske unije že več desetletij, kar omogoča neposredno primerljivost podatkov. We have been carrying out the Panel Survey on Business Tendency in Retail Trade in Slovenia since January 1999 with the harmonised questionnaire, methodology and periodicity, which have been used in EU Member States for several decades. Therefore, all data are directly comparable. ENOTA OPAZOVANJA OBSERVATION UNITS Opazujemo podjetja, ki so po Standardni klasifikaciji dejavnosti razvrščena v trgovino na drobno, in sicer v naslednja oddelka: We are monitoring units that are registered in retail trade or sale of motor vehicles in the following divisions: • 50 - Prodaja, vzdrževanje in popravila motornih vozil; trgovina na drobno z motornimi gorivi, • 50 - Sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles, retail sale of fuels • 52 - Trgovina na drobno, razen z motornimi vozili; popravila izdelkov široke porabe. • 52 - Retail trade, except of motor vehicles, repair of personal and household goods Vzorec podjetij je oblikovan na podlagi dveh meril: They were selected into the panel by two criteria: • razvrstitve trgovskega podjetja po SKD in • the classification of the enterprise according to the Standard Classification of Activities (SCA) and • velikosti trgovskega podjetja (prihodek, skladno z zakonom o gospodarskih družbah). • the size of the enterprises (turnover in accordance with the Law on Business Companies). VIRI SOURCES Na vprašalnik PA - TRG odgovarjajo direktorji podjetij ali drugi vodilni delavci med 1. in 10. v mesecu. Persons responding to the monthly PA-TRG questionnaire are managers of enterprises or other executives. They respond between the 1st and the 10th of the month. ZAJETJE COVERAGE V panelni vzorec smo zajeli vsa velika in srednje velika podjetja ter 26 % malih podjetij (ali 37 % prihodka malih podjetij), ki so razvrščena v dejavnost trgovine na drobno ali trgovine z motornimi vozili. Opisani panelni vzorec pokriva 36 % podjetij vzorčnega okvira ali 93 % prihodka v trgovini na drobno in trgovine z motornimi vozili. The panel includes all large and medium-sized enterprises and 26% of small enterprises (or 37% of their turnover), the principal activity of which is classified into retail trade and sale of motor vehicles. The panel covers 36% of enterprises of the studied population or 93% of turnover in retail trade and sale of motor vehicles. NAČIN ZBIRANJA PODATKOV METHOD OF DATA COLLECTING Anketo izvajamo mesečno po pošti. The survey is carried out monthly by mail. UTEŽEVANJE ODGOVOROV WEIGHTS FOR RESPONSES Odgovori so uteženi tako, da odražajo relativno pomembnost posameznega podjetja v vzorcu. Znotraj razredov SKD so odgovori uteženi s prihodkom. Responses to individual questions are weighted so that they reflect relative importance of an individual enterprise in the panel. Inside the SKD classes responses are weighted with the turnover. NEODGOVORI NON-RESPONSES Neodgovore vsak mesec obdelamo skladno s poenoteno metodologijo. Non-responses are processed every month in accordance with the harmonized methodology. DEFINICIJE IN POJASNILA DEFINITIONS AND EXPLANATIONS Ravnotežje je razlika med pozitivnimi in negativnimi odgovori, izraženimi v odstotkih. Ravnotežja prikazujejo gibanje opazovanih ekonomskih kazalcev (stanj in pričakovanj), ne pa dejanskih velikosti ekonomskih kazalcev. Grafikoni prikazujejo ravnotežja po posameznih vprašanjih. The balance is the difference between positive and negative answers, expressed in percent. The balance shows the movement of observed economic indicators (present situation and future expectations), and not the real size of economic indicators. The charts show the balance by individual questions. Statistične informacije, št. 318/2004 6 Rapid Reports No 318/2004 Na grafih so prikazane desezonirane vrednosti. To so vrednosti, pri katerih je izključen vpliv sezone, vsebujejo pa trend-cikel in naključno komponento. Podatki za EU so desezonirani z metodo DAINTIES, za Slovenijo pa z metodo TRAMO/SEATS, ki temelji na ARIMA modelih. Pri oblikovanju modelov smo upoštevali obdobje od januarja 1999 do januarja 2004. Pri prodajnih cenah, pričakovanih prodajnih cenah in ravni prodaje sezonska komponenta ni prisotna. Data in the charts are seasonally adjusted. Values are adjusted for the seasonal component and include the trend-cycle component and the irregular component. Data for the EU are seasonally adjusted by DAINTIES method and for Slovenia by TRAMO/SEATS method, which is based on ARIMA models. The designing of the models is based on the time period from January 1999 to January 2004. Selling prices, selling prices expectation and the level of sales have no seasonal component. Kazalec zaupanja je povprečje odgovorov (ravnotežij) na vprašanja o sedanjem in pričakovanem poslovnem položaju in sedanjem obsegu zalog (obrnjen predznak). The confidence indicator shows an average of responses (balances) to questions on present and expected business trend and present stock (the latter with inverted sign). OBJAVLJANJE REZULTATOV PUBLISHING Sodelujoči v anketi prejmejo informacijo o dejavnosti, v katero so uvrščeni. Persons participating in the survey get the information on the activity of their enterprises. Drugim uporabnikom so ti podatki dostopni na ravni trgovine na drobno in po velikostnih razredih podjetij. Objavljamo jih mesečno v Statističnih informacijah in podatkovni bazi SI-STAT (http://www.stat.si). Other users can get data for retail trade and data for large, medium-sized and small enterprises published monthly in Rapid Reports and in the SI- STAT database (http://www.stat.si/eng). VPRAŠANJA : QUESTIONS: Ocene stanj: Appreciation of situation: • Ocena poslovnega položaja v zadnjih 3 mesecih: dober, zadovoljiv - normalen glede na sezono, slab? • Assessment of the present business situation over the past 3 months: good, satisfactory (normal for the season), bad? • Prodajne cene so v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem: višje, enake, nižje? • Selling prices compared to the last month: up, unchanged, down? • Ocena finančnega položaja v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem: boljši, enak, slabši? • Assessment of financial situation compared to the last month: better, same, worse? • Ocena obsega zalog: premajhne, ustrezne - normalne glede na sezono, prevelike? • Assessment of stocks: too small, adequate (normal for the season), too large? • Ocena prodaje glede na isti mesec lanskega leta: na višji ravni, na isti ravni, na nižji ravni? • Assessment of sales compared to the same month of the previous year: at a higer level, unchanged, at a lower level? Pričakovanja v naslednjih mesecih: Expectation in the next months: • Pričakovani poslovni položaj čez 6 mesecev: boljši, enak, slabši? • Expected business situation 6 months ahead: better, same, worse? • Pričakovane prodajne cene v naslednjih mesecih: višje, enake, nižje? • Selling price expectations for the next months: up, unchanged, down? • Pričakovano zaposlovanje v naslednjih 3 mesecih: povečalo, ostalo enako, zmanjšalo? • Employment expectations for the next 3 months: up, unchanged, down? • Pričakovani obseg skupne nabave (tuji in domači dobavitelji) v naslednjih 3 meseci: večji, enak, manjši? • Expectations on orders to place with total suppliers (domestic and foreign) in the next 3 months: up, unchanged, down? • Pričakovano povpraševanje v naslednjih 3 mesecih: povečalo, ostalo enako, zmanjšalo? • Expected demand for the next 3 months: up, unchanged, down? • Ocena konkurence na vašem področju glede na pretekli mesec: večja, enaka, manjša? • Assessment of competition in own sector compared to the last month: up, unchanged, down? • Ocena gibanja prodaje za to obdobje leta: dobro, zadovoljivo, slabo? • Assessment of sales for this period of year: good, satisfactory, bad? • Dejavniki, ki ovirajo izboljšanje sedanjega položaja: ni omejitev, nizko povpraševanje, slaba ponudba, visoki stroški dela, visoka cena denarja, težka dostopnost do bančnih kreditov, premajhna prodajna površina, premajhni skladiščni prostori, konkurenca v sektorju, ostalo? • Factors limiting the improvement of the present business situation: none, low demand, bad supply, high labour costs , high costs of finance, problems with access to bank credits, small sales surface, small storage capacity, competition in own sector, other? • Pričakovani obseg nabave pri domačih dobaviteljih v naslednjih 3 mesecih: večji, enak, manjši, nimamo domačih dobaviteljev? • Expectations on orders to place with domestic suppliers in the next 3 months: up, unchanged, down, no domestic suppliers? • Pričakovani obseg nabave pri tujih dobaviteljih v naslednjih 3 mesecih: večji, enak, manjši, nimamo tujih dobaviteljev? • Expectations on orders to place with foreign suppliers in the next 3 months: up, unchanged, down, no foreign suppliers? Statistične informacije, št. 318/2004 Rapid Reports No 318/2004 7 KOMENTAR COMMENT V oktobru se je desezonirana vrednost kazalca zaupanja v trgovini na drobno v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem zvišala za 2 odstotni točki. V primerjavi z lanskim oktobrom se je vrednost kazalca znižala za 2 odstotni točki, glede na lansko povprečje pa je bila njegova vrednost za 2 odstotni točki višja. In October the seasonally adjusted retail trade confidence indicator showed an increase by 2 percentage points compared to September 2004. Compared to October 2003 the indicator fell by 2 percentage points while compared to last year's average its value was higher by 2 percentage points. Na razvoj kazalca zaupanja je vplivalo izboljšanje vseh treh komponent, tj. kazalca sedanjega in pričakovanega poslovnega položaja ter kazalec obseg zalog. This development of the confidence indicator was determined by the improvement of all three components; i.e. the indicators of the present and expected business situation and the indicator of the volume of stocks. Kazalci stanj so se večinoma izboljšali, razen kazalca finančni položaj in konkurenčnosti. Izboljšali so se tudi kazalci pričakovanj; razen za kazalec pričakovana skupna nabava je bilo zabeleženo poslabšanje, medtem ko je ostal kazalec pričakovanega povpraševanja nespremenjen. The indicators of the present business situation mostly improved, except the indicators of the financial situation and the competition. Improvements were also recorded for most indicators of the expected business situation, except the indicator of expected orders, which showed a decline, and the indicator of the expected demand, which remained unchanged. PRIČAKOVANJA EXPECTATIONS PRIČAKOVANI POSLOVNI POLOŽAJ EXPECTED BUSINESS SITUATION Desezonirana vrednost kazalca pričakovanega poslovnega položaja je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem višja za 2 odstotni točki. Glede na lanski oktober je bila vrednost kazalca za 3 odstotne točke nižja, medtem ko je bila njegova vrednost v primerjavi z lanskim povprečjem višja za 2 odstotni točki. The seasonally adjusted value of the expected business situation indicator rose by 2 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to October 2003 it edged down by 3 percentage points while compared to last year’s average it was 2 percentage points higher. PRIČAKOVANE PRODAJNE CENE SELLING PRICES EXPECTATIONS V primerjavi s preteklim mesecem se je desezonirana vrednost kazalca pričakovanih prodajnih cen močno izboljšala, in sicer za 29 odstotnih točk. Izrazito izboljšanje je bilo zabeleženo tudi glede na isti mesec lani in lansko povprečje, in sicer za 14 oziroma 5 odstotnih točk. The seasonally adjusted value of the selling prices expectations indicator strongly improved, that is by 29 percentage points compared to the previous month. A strong improvement was also recorded compared to October 2003 and to last year’s average, i.e. by 14 and 5 percentage points, respectively. PRIČAKOVANO ZAPOSLOVANJE EXPECTED EMPLOYMENT Desezonirana vrednost kazalca pričakovanega zaposlovanja se je zvišala za 2 odstotni točki glede na pretekli mesec in se za 2 odstotni točki znižala glede na isti mesec lanskega leta. Vrednost kazalca je bila za 4 odstotne točke nad lanskim povprečjem. The seasonally adjusted value of the expected employment indicator showed a rise by 2 percentage points in comparison to the previous month and 2 percentage points decline compared to October 2003. The value was 4 percentage points above its last year’s average. PRIČAKOVANA SKUPNA NABAVA EXPECTED ORDERS Desezonirana vrednost kazalca pričakovane skupne nabave se je v primerjavi s septembrom 2004 poslabšala za 4 odstotne točke. Padec je bil zabeležen tudi v primerjavi z oktobrom 2003 in z lanskim povprečjem, in sicer za 3 odstotne točke oziroma 2 odstotni točki. The seasonally adjusted value of the expected orders indicator deteriorated by 4 percentage points compared to September 2004. A fallby 3 and 2 percentage points was also recorded compared to October 2003 and last year’s average, respectively. PRIČAKOVANO POVPRAŠEVANJE EXPECTED DEMAND Desezonirana vrednost kazalca pričakovanega povpraševanja je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem ostala nespremenjena. Glede na isti mesec lanskega leta je vrednost kazalca malo padla (za 1 odstotno točko), medtem ko je bila glede na lansko povprečje za 2 odstotni točki višja. The seasonally adjusted value of the expected demand indicator remained unchanged in comparison to the previous month. Compared to October 2003 it was slightly down (by 1 percentage point) while compared to last year’s average it was 2 percentage points higher. STANJA SITUATION POSLOVNI POLOŽAJ BUSINESS SITUATION V oktobru 2004 je bila desezonirana vrednost kazalca poslovnega In October 2004 the seasonally adjusted value of the business situation Statistične informacije, št. 318/2004 8 Rapid Reports No 318/2004 položaja višja za 4 odstotne točke tako glede na pretekli mesec kot tudi v primerjavi z istim mesecem lanskega leta. Glede na lansko povprečje pa je bila vrednost kazalca višja za 8 odstotnih točk. indicator rose by 4 percentage points compared to the previous month and to October 2003, while compared to last year’s average it was 8 percentage points higher. PRODAJNE CENE SELLING PRICES Desezonirana vrednost kazalca prodajnih cen je pokazala rahlo mesečno zvišanje, in sicer za 1 odstotno točko. Močno izboljšanje vrednosti kazalca je bilo zabeleženo glede na isti mesec lanskega leta in glede na lansko povprečje, in sicer za 22 oziroma 12 odstotnih točk. The seasonally adjusted value of the selling prices indicator showed a little progress (by 1 percentage point) compared to the previous month. A strong improvement was recorded compared to October 2003 and to last year’s average, i.e. by 22 and 12 percentage points, respectively. FINANČNI POLOŽAJ FINANCIAL SITUATION Desezonirana vrednost kazalca finančnega položaja je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem malo padla, in sicer za 1 odstotno točko. Medtem ko je bila v primerjavi z oktobrom 2003 in lanskim povprečjem vrednost kazalca višja za 4 odstotne točke. The seasonally adjusted value of the financial situation indicator slightly fell by 1 percentage point compared to the previous month, while compared to October 2003 and last year’s average its value increased by 4 percentage points. OBSEG ZALOG PRESENT STOCKS V primerjavi s septembrom 2004 se je desezonirana vrednost kazalca obsega zalog zvišala za 1 odstotno točko. Izboljšanje vrednosti kazalca je bilo zabeleženo tako glede na isti mesec lanskega leta kot tudi glede na lansko povprečje, in sicer za 7 oziroma 6 odstotnih točk. The seasonally adjusted value of the present stocks indicator rose by 1 percentage point compared to September 2004. Improvement was recorded in comparison to September 2003 as well as to last year’s average, i.e. by 7 and 6 percentage points, respectively. RAVEN PRODAJE LEVEL OF SALES Desezonirana vrednost kazalca ravni prodaje se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem zelo izboljšala, in sicer za 14 odstotnih točk. Glede na isti mesec lanskega leta je bila njegova vrednost za 30 odstotnih točk višja in za 26 odstotnih točk višja od lanskega povprečja. The seasonally adjusted value of the level of sales indicator improved significantly by 14 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to October 2003 it rose by 30 percentage points and compared to last year’s average it was 26 percentage points higher. KONKURENČNOST COMPETITION Desezonirana vrednost kazalca konkurenčnosti je v primerjavi s septembrom padla za 6 odstotnih točk. Njegova vrednost je padla za 10 odstotnih točk glede na isti mesec lanskega leta in je bila 4 odstotne točke pod lanskim povprečjem. The seasonally adjusted value of the competition indicator edged down by 6 percentage points compared to September. Compared to October 2003 its value fell by 10 percentage points and it was 4 percentage points below last year’s average. GIBANJE PRODAJE ZA TO OBDOBJE LETA EVOLUTION OF SALES FOR THIS PERIOD OF YEAR Desezonirana vrednost kazalca gibanja prodaje je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem zrasla za 2 odstotni točki. Vrednost se je izboljšala tudi glede na isti mesec lanskega leta in glede na lansko povprečje, in sicer za 1 odstotno točko oziroma 4 odstotne točke. The seasonally adjusted value of the evolution of sales rose by 2 percentage points compared to the previous month. The value also improved in comparison to October 2003 and to last year’s average, i.e. by 1 and 4 percentage points, respectively. OMEJITVENI DEJAVNIKI V TRGOVINI NA DROBNO OBSTACLES IN RETAIL TRADE V trgovini na drobno se je 35 % podjetij (oz. 29 % prihodka) srečevalo z dejavniki iz skupine "hude omejitve". V primerjavi s preteklim mesecem je bil delež teh podjetij za 2 odstotni točki višji, glede na isti mesec lanskega leta pa je ta delež ostal nespremenjen. In retail trade 35% of enterprises (29% of turnover) were faced with “severe obstacles” in trading. Compared to the previous month the share of these enterprises was higher by 2 percentage points and compared to October 2003 it remained the same. Podjetij, ki so se srečevala s skupino dejavnikov "težave s ponudbo", je bilo 28 % (oz. 30 % prihodka). Delež teh podjetij se je glede na pretekli mesec znižal, in sicer za 2 odstotni točki, glede na isti mesec lanskega leta pa je padel za 3 odstotne točke. The share of enterprises faced with “supply difficulties” was 28% (30% of turnover). Compared to the previous month this share fell by 2 percentage points and compared to October 2003 it fell by 3 percentage points. Podjetij, ki so se srečevala s skupino dejavnikov "težave s povpraševanjem", je bilo 28 % (oz. 28 % prihodka), kar je bilo za 2 odstotni točki več kot v preteklem mesecu in za 4 odstotne točke več kot v lanskem oktobru. The share of enterprises faced with “demand difficulties” was 28% (28% of turnover), which was 2 percentage points more than in the previous month and 4 percentage points more than in October 2003. Statistične informacije, št. 318/2004 Rapid Reports No 318/2004 9 Podjetij, ki niso imela omejitev v poslovanju, je bilo 9 % (oz. 13 % prihodka). Delež teh podjetij je bil glede na pretekli mesec nižji za 2 odstotni točki in za 1 odstotno točko nižji kot v lanskem oktobru. Only 9% of enterprises (13% of turnover) experienced no obstacles. The share of these enterprises fell by 2 percentage points compared to the previous month and it was 1 percentage point lower than in October 2003. Podrobnejši pregled omejitvenih dejavnikov v trgovini na drobno1): A more detailed overview of obstacles in retail trade shows that1): • 47 % podjetij (ali 48 % prihodka) je omejevala konkurenca v sektorju, • 47% of enterprises (or 48% of turnover) were limited by competition in own sector, • 38 % podjetij (ali 36 % prihodka) so omejevali visoki stroški dela, • 38% of enterprises (or 36% of turnover) were limited by high cost of labour, • 33 % podjetij (ali 25 % prihodka) je omejevalo nezadostno povpraševanje, • 33% of enterprises (or 25% of turnover) were limited by insufficient demand, • 26 % podjetij (ali 27 % prihodka) je omejevala visoka cena denarja, • 26% of enterprises (or 27% of turnover) were limited by high cost of money, • 15 % podjetij (ali 8 % prihodka) je omejevala premajhna prodajna površina, • 15% of enterprises (or 8% of turnover) were limited by shortage of sales surface, • 13 % podjetij (ali 7 % prihodka) je omejevala dostopnost do bančnih kreditov, • 13% of enterprises (or 7% of turnover) were limited by access to bank credits, • 10 % podjetij (ali 13 % prihodka) ni imelo omejitev v poslovanju, • 10% of enterprises (or 13% of turnover) experienced no obstacles, • 9 % podjetij (ali 12 % prihodka) so omejevali drugi dejavniki, kot so finančna nedisciplina, visoke najemnine, slaba lokacija itd., • 9% of enterprises (or 12% of turnover) were limited by other factors such as lack of financial discipline, high rents, bad location, etc., • 7 % podjetij (ali 4 % prihodka) so omejevali premajhni skladiščni prostori, • 7% of enterprises (or 4% of turnover) were limited by small storage capacity, • 3 % podjetij (ali 2 % prihodka) je omejevala slaba ponudba. • 3% of enterprises (or 2% of turnover) were limited by supply shortage. 1) Podjetja lahko označijo več dejavnikov, ki omejujejo njihovo poslovanje, zato vsota odstotkov ni 100. Enterprises can select several obstacled to their business, so the total is not 100%. Statistično raziskovanje je sofinancirala Evropska komisija. Za objavljene podatke in besedila je odgovoren izključno Statistični urad Republike Slovenije in ne Evropska komisija. The business survey is co-financed by the European Commission. However, the European Commission accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever with regard to the material published in this document. Sestavila / Prepared by: Darja Regoršek Izdaja, založba in tisk Statistični urad Republike Slovenije, Ljubljana, Vožarski pot 12 - Uporaba in objava podatkov dovoljena le z navedbo vira - Odgovarja generalna direktorica mag. Irena Križman - Urednica zbirke Statistične informacije Marina Urbas - Slovensko besedilo jezikovno uredila Ivanka Zobec in Joža Lakovič - Angleško besedilo jezikovno uredil Boris Panič - Naklada 105 izvodov - ISSN zbirke Statistične informacije 1408-192X - ISSN podzbirke Trgovina in druge storitvene dejavnosti 1408- 9327 - Informacije daje Informacijsko središče, tel.: (01) 241 51 04 - El. pošta: info.stat@gov.si - http://www.stat.si. Edited, published and printed by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, Ljubljana, Vožarski pot 12 - These data can be used provided the source is acknowledged - Director-General Irena Križman - Rapid Reports editor Marina Urbas - Slovene language editor Ivanka Zobec and Joža Lakovič - English language editor Boris Panič - Total print run 105 copies - ISSN of Rapid Reports 1408-192X - ISSN of subcollection Distributive trade and other service activities 1408-9327 - Information is given by the Information Centre of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, tel.: +386 1 241 51 04 - E-mail: info.stat@gov.si - http://www.stat.si.