Slovenian Economic Mirror J imad Economic Analyses/April 2008 No. 4, Vol. XIV Slovenian Economic Mirror presents current macroeconomic developments as well as selected economic, social and environmental issues. The publication consists of articles, which present the main economic indicators, assess the realisation of the spring and autumn forecasts, and monitor implementation of economic policies (earnings, public finance, prices, competitiveness, etc.). The periodical is published monthly, except in September. This issue of Slovenian Economic Mirror was prepared by: Mateja Peternelj (In the Spotlight), Jure Brložnik (International Environment), Jože Markič (Balance of Payments), Miha Trošt (Price Trends & Policy), Marjan Hafner (Money Market - Household Savings, Money Market - Loans, Stock Exchange), Jasna Kondža (General Government Revenue), Tomaž Kraigher (Labour Market), Saša Kovačič (Earnings), Katarina Ivas (Manufacturing), Jure Povšnar (Transport, Energy Sector), Mojca Vendramin (Greenhouse Gas Emissions), Janja Pečar (Regional Disparities in GDP Per Capita in Purchasing Power Parities in the EU), Judita Mirjana Novak (Business Entities, Solvency of Business Entities). Director: Boštjan Vasle. Editor in Chief: Luka Žakelj. Translator: Marija Kavčič. Language Editing: Translation and Interpretation Division of the Secretariat-General of the Government of the RS. Technical Editor: Ema Bertina Kopitar. Statistical Appendix, Data Preparation & Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman. Distribution: Katja Ferfolja. Printed by: Tiskarna Štrok. Concept & Design: Sandi Radovan, Studio DVA. Circulation: 500 copies. Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development Gregorčičeva 27, 1000 Ljubljana (+386 1) 478 10 12 fax: 478 10 70 Editor in chief: luka.zakelj@gov.si Translator: marija.kavcic@gov.si Distribution: publicistika.umar@gov.si SEM can be found on the Internet at http://www.umar.gov.si/en/publications/slovenian economic mirror/zapisi/?no cache=1 Publication is included in Ebsco Publishing Database and Internet Securities Database. © Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, 1995-2008. The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2008 p. 2 In the Spotlight Slowdown of economic activity in line with expectations p. 3 International Environment In their spring forecasts, as expected, the European Commission and the IMF revised downwards their projections of economic growth in our main trading partners p. 4 Balance of Payments The current account deficit increased; higher net capital inflow largely due to the issue of the benchmark government bond p. 5 Price Trends & Policy Growth of prices increased in most price index groups p. 6 Money Market -Household Savings High growth of sight deposits in banks p. 7 Money Market - Loans Growth of loan volumes below 2% for the second consecutive month p. 8 Stock Exchange Significant decline in indices on most capital markets p. 9 General Government Revenue Favourable real growth of general government revenue in the first three months p. 10 Labour Market Growth of employment and decline in unemployment continue p. 11 Earnings Higher growth of public sector wages in February owing to the adjustment to last year's higher inflation p. 12 Manufacturing Production growth rebounded in February after three months of modest growth p. 13 Transport High growth of road freight transport and air and airport passenger transport in 2007 against the background of strengthening in the final quarter p. 14 Energy Sector Increased international trade and net electricity exports in the first quarter p. 15 SELECTED TOPICS Greenhouse Gas Emissions Additional measures for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions will be necessary to reach the Kyoto targets p. 19 Regional Disparities in GDP Per Capita in Purchasing Power Parities in the EU Member states more successful in narrowing the development gap with the European average and less in decreasing intra-state disparities p. 20 Business Entities 2007 saw the strongest growth in the number of economic entities in the last four years p. 21 Solvency of Business Entities Last year, the number of insolvent legal entities smaller than in 2006 p. 22 Data: (pp. A 1-12), Main Indicators (p. A 13), International Comparisons (pp. A 14-15), Graphs (pp. A 16-17). Selected indicators of current economic developments, change in % Latest data Compared to the previous month same period of previous year latest data pre-latest data pre-pre latest data Industrial production (value based) II 4.5 4.4 0.6 6.7 Manufacturing II 5.4 4.8 1.0 8.1 Electricity, gas and water supply II -11.4 -4.4 -7.5 -11.1 Value of construction put in place, real terms II 12.8 40.2 38.7 18.2 Exports of goods (nominal terms)1 II 2.8 13.4 13.5 16.1 Imports of goods (nominal terms)1 II 2.2 16.4 16.6 17.9 Real effective exchange rate2 II -0.5 4.4 4.4 2.3 Gross wage per employee, real terms II 0.0 1.1 -1.3 2.2 Total household savings in banks,3 nominal terms III 1.2 10.8 9.5 9.8 General government revenue, real terms III -11.8 4.9 5.5 4.1 Number of persons in paid employment II 0.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 Number of registered unemployed III -4.0 -13.5 -13.6 -13.4 Number of job vacancies III -13.1 5.7 19.4 11.7 Month current previous pre-previous Registered unemployment rate | II 7.1 7.4 7.3 Month current cumulative annual4 Consumer prices IV 0.8 2.1 6.5 Producer prices (domestic market) III 0.5 2.6 5.7 Sources of data: SORS, BS, ESS, estimates and calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1balance of payments' statistics; 2euro exchange rate for Slovenia measured by relative consumer prices; the calculation of the effective exchange rate includes the currencies/prices of Slovenia's 17 trading partners (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Italy, France, Netherlands, Spain, Denmark, United Kingdom, Sweden, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, USA, Switzerland, Japan); weights are the shares of individual trading partners in Slovenian exports and imports of goods within manufacturing (5-8 SITC) in 2001-2003; exports are double weighted; 3the year-on-year growth rate is defined as the ratio between the stock at the end of the current month and the stock in the same month of the previous year; 4total in the last 12 months. In the Spotlight Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2008 p. 3 Similar to our forecast, the spring projections of major international forecasting institutions envisage a cyclical slowdown of global economic growth and the activity of Slovenia's economy in the next two years. The European Commission (EC) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have again revised downward their autumn forecasts of economic growth also in our main trading partners, and are slightly below the assumptions of our spring forecast for next year. The more pessimistic projection reflects the increasing economic imbalances in the international environment, the risk of recession in the U.S. economy and uncertain consequences of the financial turmoil and price shocks on the global commodity markets. Both the EC and the IMF revised upwards their inflation forecasts. Inflation is expected to hover around 3% in the euro area this year (instead of 2%; see p. 4), assuming that food and energy prices will continue to rise. Compared to autumn, they also expect higher inflation in Slovenia. The EC forecast of average inflation in Slovenia (5.4% in 2008 and 3.3% in 2009) does not deviate significantly from our forecast (5.2% and 3.2%, respectively), but is much higher compared to the IMF expectations (4.0% and 2.4%). The IMF, in contrast, is less optimistic regarding GDP growth in Slovenia over the next two years (4.1% in 2008 and 3.5% in 2009). Compared to our forecast (4.4% and 4.1%), the EC also anticipates a somewhat faster slowdown (4.2% and 3.8%). In line with expectations, economic activity in certain areas has slowed at the beginning of the year, but remains relatively high. Construction activity strengthened in the first two months: the value of construction works increased in all segments, and particularly in residential construction. The confidence indicator value in the first quarter of this year and also in April was below the 2007 average, but still above the long-term average. In manufacturing, production moderated in the first three months (to 1.3%, y-o-y), which is in line with expectations. Capacity utilisation remains high, while the confidence indicator value stabilised somewhat below last year's average. As regards the perception of the limits to production, an increasing number of companies report insufficient demand on the domestic market and abroad together with uncertain economic conditions (see p. 13). External trade moderated against the background of faltering foreign demand, but the current account deficit of the balance of payments widened significantly. In line with expectations, merchandise trade was more modest at the beginning of the year compared to the same period last year. In the first two months, export of goods increased by 12.7% nominally, year on year, while import of goods rose by 16.1%. The current account deficit was EUR 230 million higher than the year before, mainly because of the increased trade deficit. The increase was partly generated by further price rises of oil and other commodities, which deteriorated the terms of trade. While services trade rose vigorously, the services trade surplus narrowed compared to last year, as import of services strengthened relative to export of services (see p. 5). In the first quarter, the domestic financial market was characterised by negative developments on the stock exchange, a turn to risk aversion and less intensive borrowing. Against the backdrop of negative trends on the capital markets - the main index of the Ljubljana Stock Exchange SBI20 fell by almost a quarter in the first four months this year, to a record 10-year low (see p. 9) -and higher deposit interest rates, savings in banks continued to strengthen in the first three months (see p. 7). The lending activity of banks moderated in the first quarter as well, mainly due to less intensive corporate borrowing. Nevertheless, net borrowing of enterprises and households increased by a quarter compared to the first three months of 2007 (see p. 8). Labour market trends remained favourable at the beginning of the year. Against the background of 0.4% monthly growth in February, the number of people in formal employment continued to be 3.5% higher than last year. Compared to January, the highest number of new jobs was recorded in construction and business services. With respect to the seasonal dynamics, the number of registered unemployed persons in the first quarter declined (to 64,295 by the end of March) largely due to a smaller inflow into unemployment. In comparison with the first quarter last year, the number of registered vacancies and the number of people hired increased, mainly for jobs requiring secondary and lower education. At the same time, employment of foreigners continued to rise (see p. 11). In February, wages in the public sector rose following the adjustment to last year's higher inflation, while wages in the private sector decreased. The average gross wage was the same as in January. Risks regarding wage developments in the future arise from additional requirements for higher wages in the public sector, which will increase the pressure on public finances and competitiveness of the economy as well as hamper the reduction of inflation (see p. 12). Inflation remained relatively high in April. Consumer prices increased by 0.8% (compared to 1.1% in April, 2007), while the y-o-y inflation rate decreased by 0.4 p.p. (to 6.5%) due to the base effect. Although inflationary pressures are largely externally induced by the high food and fuel prices, increasing prices have also spilt over into product groups which are not directly linked to developments on the global markets. Therefore, we estimate that the persistence of relatively high inflation may be due to secondary effects as well. Higher inflation along with higher inflationary expectations increases the risk that disinflation may fall short of expectations at the beginning of the year (see p. 6). International Environment Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2008 p. 4 Real GDP growth - comparison of forecasts and IMAD's assumptions 2007 2008 2009 IMF Okt. 07 EC Nov. 07 CONS Feb. 08 EC Feb. 08 IMAD Mar. 08 IMF Apr. 08 CONS Apr. 08 EC Apr. 08 EC Nov. 07 CONS Feb. 08 IMAD Mar. 08 IMF Apr. 08 CONS Apr. 08 EK Apr. 08 EU 2.8 N/A 2.4 2.0 2.0 1.9 N/A 1.9 2.0 2.4 2.1 2.1 N/A 1.9 1.8 EMU 2.6 2.1 2.2 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.2 1.7 1.5 Germany 2.5 2.0 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.8 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.0 1.6 1.5 Italy 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.5 1.6 1.4 1.4 0.3 1.1 0.8 Austria 3.4 2.5 2.7 2.4 N/A 2.4 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.3 1.7 2.1 1.8 France 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.2 1.7 1.4 USA 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.6 N/A 1.2 0.5 1.3 0.9 2.6 2.6 2.4 0.6 2.1 0.7 Source of data: Eurostat; IMAD - assumptions from the Spring Forecast (March 08); EC Autumn Forecast (November 07); EC Interim Forecast (February 08); EC Spring Forecast (April 08); IMF World Economic Outlook (October 07; April 08); Consensus Forecasts (February 08; April 08). Due to uncertain consequences of the financial crisis and continued high growth of commodity prices, the European Commission and the IMF, as expected, reduced their forecasts of economic growth in our main trading partners for this and the coming year. Compared to its autumn forecast, the EC scaled down its forecasts of economic growth in the EMU by 0.5 p.p. (to 1.7%) for 2008 and by 0.6 p.p. (to 1.5%) for 2009. The IMF outlook for the European economy is more pessimistic (see table). High uncertainty due to the consequences of the financial crisis is given as the main risk to the realisation of the forecasts by both forecasting institutions. Inflation will be a greater risk than lower economic growth this year and is expected to accelerate from last year's 2.1% to 3.2% according to the EC forecasts (compared to the 2.1% projected in autumn), before falling to 2.2% again in 2009 (whereas the IMF's inflation forecasts are 0.3 p.p. lower for both years). Due to record 3.6% inflation in March, the ECB left its interest rate unchanged again in the previous month (at 4.0%). Inflation decreased to 3.3%, year-on year, but may strengthen again, as very strong growth of the prices of oil and other commodities on global markets continues (the IMF's commodity price index in dollars increased by 45.5% year on year in the first quarter, the dollar price of Brent crude oil rose by 67%). As the dollar depreciation is the main contributor to the strong commodity price growth (in April, the euro appreciated by 16.5% against the dollar, year on year, which alleviates growth of commodity prices in euros) and taking into account that the U.S. central bank slashed its key interest rate by 0.25 p.p. again at the end of April (to 2.0%), prices of commodities are not expected to moderate significantly in the short run. This has also been confirmed by the forecasts of both forecasting institutions that oil prices will total between USD 95 and 100/barrel on average in 2008. The EC also forecasts 38.6% growth of food raw materials for this year (compared to 19.1% last year). In 2008 and 2009, economic growth in the EMU will fall below potential growth due to weaker growth of domestic demand and exports. Growth of investment, the main driver of economic growth over the last few years, will halve this year. Despite the above-average capacity utilisation and continued strong growth of loans to non-financial companies (posting a record high of 14.8% in February), growth of investment in machinery and equipment will fall against the background of lower domestic and foreign demand and deteriorated conditions of financing. Investment in residential construction will continue to slow. Strong growth of food and energy prices, which is expected to reach its peak in the second quarter this year according to the EC estimates, will negatively affect private consumption growth - which is already reflected in the deterioration of the consumer sentiment indicators - and thus neutralise the very positive data on the situation on the labour market. Against the backdrop of 1.6% employment growth, unemployment fell to a record low of 7.4% last year. Growth of private consumption is otherwise notably lower than in the previous cycles, mainly due to lower growth of wages in this cycle in comparison with the past, even though it is expected to accelerate this year. Despite the improved geographical distribution and production specialisation of euro area exports in the previous years, export growth will decline by a fourth in 2008 and 2009 due to the considerable slowdown of global trade growth. Further 13% appreciation of the euro against the dollar this year (compared to 9% last year) will also have a negative impact on exports. Moreover, the EC also points out that the consequences of the euro appreciation for export growth will show up after some delay. Year-on-year economic growth in the United States was 2.5% in the first quarter, but the turbulences on the real estate market are not over yet; the international forecasting institutions therefore project that GDP growth will drop below 1% in 2008 and 2009. The annualised quarterly increase in the first three months was equal to the end of 2007 (0.6%), which was far above expectations. The contribution of domestic demand to economic growth was negative (-0.4 p.p.); growth was largely underpinned by the accumulation of stocks (0.8 p.p.). In addition to private consumption growth, which was half as much as in the final quarter last year, the outlook for growth worsened as the result of a drop in non-residential investment and further notable decline in residential investment; the latter does not come as a surprise, since real estate prices have been declining rapidly from month to month (by as much as -13.5% in February). Growth of exports decreased as well; the contribution of international trade was therefore five times lower relative to the previous three quarters. Nevertheless, growth is expected to pick up somewhat in the second half of the year, when the effects of the interest rate cuts will already begin to show (by 3.25 p.p. since last August), as well as the effects of the fiscal package in the amount of 1% of GDP, consisting mainly of the income tax refund in the form of cheques that started to be sent to households in May. Balance of Payments Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2008 p. 5 Balance of payments, I-II 2008, EUR m Inflows Outflows Balance1 Balance, I-II 2007 Current account 4,304.0 4,731.2 -427.1 -197.2 Trade balance (FOB) 3,383.0 3,664.9 -281.9 -166.0 Services 619.8 502.2 117.6 134.6 Factor services 185.4 320.5 -135.1 -90.0 Unrequited transfers 115.8 243.6 -127.8 -75.8 Capital and financial account 1,526.9 -1,225.8 301.0 194.0 Capital account 44.0 -36.7 7.3 23.7 Capital transfers 42.9 -35.6 7.2 24.4 Non-produced, non-financial assets 1.1 -1.1 0.0 -0.6 Financial account 1,482.9 -1,189.1 293.8 170.3 Direct investment 127.6 -64.9 62.7 -153.9 Portfolio investment 841.6 -252.7 588.8 -1,053.3 Financial derivatives 0.0 5.8 5.8 1.1 Other long-term capital investment 476.6 -877.3 -400.6 1,314.4 Assets 155.9 -868.3 -712.4 -1,499.8 Liabilities 320.7 -9.0 311.8 2,814.2 International reserves (BS) 37.1 0.0 37.1 62.1 Statistical error 126.1 0.0 126.1 3.2 the capital and financial account and the central bank's international reserves. The current account deficit is widening. In the first two months of 2008 year on year, the increase was mainly driven by the higher trade deficit linked to the gradual cooling of international economic trends and high prices of oil and other primary commodities. During this time, goods exports increased by 12.7% year on year (by 11.0% to the EU and 17.6% to non-member states). Goods imports rose by a nominal 16.1% (by 14.4% from the EU and 22.8% from non-member states). Prices of oil and other commodities (in USD) increased by a respective 66.6% and 18.0% in the first two months, year on year, which has a negative impact on the terms of trade and, consequently, widens the trade deficit (see p. 4). Growth of trade in services is faster than growth of goods services also this year. Services exports increased by a nominal 16.4% in the first two months, year on year, and services imports by 26.2%. Within exports and imports, transport and other services recorded the strongest growth. The services trade surplus narrowed, year on year, largely due to strengthened net imports of various business, professional and technical services. The deficit in the factor incomes account increased mainly as a result of higher net payments of interest on the external debt of the domestic banking sector. The share of the banking sector's net interest receipts from investment in debt securities is relatively modest. The higher deficit in the current transfers account was linked to net outflows of funds from Slovenia's budget to the EU budget. The national budget relative to the EU budget recorded a deficit of EUR 77.8 million in the first two months (compared to EUR 36.4 million in the same period last year). Transfers of the private sector recorded a slight surplus (workers' remittances and other transfers). Net capital inflows mainly resulted from the issue of new benchmark government bonds. International financial transactions strengthened in the first two months and totalled EUR 256.6 million (compared to EUR 180.2 million in the same period last year). At the end of January, the Republic of Slovenia issued a benchmark 11-year government bond in a nominal value of EUR 1 billion with an interest rate of 4.375%. After BS tolar bills fell due when Slovenia joined the EMU, domestic banks mainly invested the released assets in foreign securities. In the first two months of 2008 this investment was much lower, year on year, as these sources of financing were no longer available. This is also one of the reasons, why domestic commercial banks' borrowing abroad increased in the first two months of 2008, year on year, despite the turmoil on international financial markets and related interest rate risks (see p. 8). Owing to the transmission of the monetary policy to the ECB after joining the EMU, the BS had to replace liabilities from bills to commercial banks with liabilities to the Eurosystem, which totalled EUR 2,822.6 million in the first two months last year. These liabilities are increasing at a much slower pace this year; in the first two months the BS thus borrowed an additional EUR 134.2 million from the ECB. Equity capital accounted for the bulk of foreign direct investment inflows to Slovenia in the first two months; it was not notably higher year on year. In foreign direct investment outflows, Slovenian companies financed foreign affiliated companies in the form of loans and short-term commercial credits, in addition to capital investment. On the assets side, the strongest rise was observed within currency and deposits of the banking sector. Short-term commercial credits to the rest of the world increased as well, reflecting the dynamics of international goods and services trade. Graph: Financing the current account of the balance of payments, in EUR million M "HSS SS! » 1ÉI w ■M .'■m 1,000 800 600 c 400 ,o 200 E 0 rf Z} -200 -400 -600 -800 -1,000 Jan 07 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 08 Feb Direct investment Investment in securities Financial derivatives Other investment Current account Source of data: BS, ECB, calculations by IMAD. Price Trends and Policy Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2008 p. 6 2007 2008 Price indices XII2007/ 0 (107-XII07)/ III 2008/ III 2008/ 0 (IV 07-III08)/ XII2006 0 (106-XII06) II2008 III 2007 0 (IV 06-III07) Consumer prices (CPI) 105.6 103.6 101.3 106.9 104.7 Goods 106.0 103.2 101.8 107.4 104.6 Fuel and energy 109.8 103.1 103.9 112.8 106.3 Other 105.2 103.2 101.3 106.2 104.2 Services 104.8 104.5 100.4 105.7 104.8 Consumer prices (HICP) 105.7 103.8 101.3 106.6 104.7 Administered prices1 107.2 102.6 103.9 111.9 104.3 Energy 109.6 102.7 105.7 117.7 106.0 Other 101.5 102.4 100.1 100.3 100.9 Core inflation: - trimmean 103.2 102.3 100.9 104.6 103.0 - excluding food & energy 104.0 102.7 100.8 105.0 103.4 Consumer prices in the EMU 103.1 102.1 101.0 103.6 102.5 Producer prices of domestic manufacturers: - domestic market 106.3 105.4 100.5 105.7 105.7 - EMU 100.9 105.0 99.7 101.0 103.6 Sources of data: CPI, HICP, IPI: SORS; administered prices and core inflation: IMAD estimate; MUICP in the EU: Eurostat (provisional data) and IMAD recalculation. Note: figures are not directly comparable between years due to the annual changes of the administered prices index. Inflation increased again in March. Consumer prices rose by 1.3% in March and by 6.9% year on year, which is 0.4 p.p. more than in February. While growth of prices in most of the groups in the consumer price index is strengthening slowly, which indicates that the secondary effects of last year's external shocks are already beginning to show, growth of food and energy prices remains the most important driver of high inflation. Monthly inflation in March was mainly affected by external and seasonal factors. Prices of liquid fuels for transport and heating thus increased as a result of global market trends (and contributed 0.5 p.p. to inflation). Prices of clothing and footwear rose as expected, owing to the usual seasonal swings (0.6 p.p.). Significant seasonal swings of clothing and footwear prices are typical for this time of the year, but prices of clothing and footwear increased by as much as 6.8% compared to March 2007 and contributed half a percentage point to inflation. At the year-on-year level, growth of prices strengthened in most groups of the consumer price index. This is also attributable to the secondary effects of last year's price shocks (growth of prices of food, oil and other primary commodities) originating in the international environment. A significant price increase was also observed in groups, which are not directly related to developments on global markets. Increases in food and energy prices remain the key driver of accelerated inflation in Slovenia and in the whole euro area, since growth of food prices contributed 2.3 p.p. and growth of energy prices 1.6 p.p. to the 6.9% year-on-year inflation (almost 60%, in total). Industrial producer prices on the domestic market were up again in March. They increased by 0.5% and by 5.7% year on year, 0.1 p.p. more than in February. Similar to consumer price growth, growth of industrial producer prices is driven by growth of prices related to food and energy. Prices in the manufacture of food, beverages and animal feed were up 13.9% in March, year on year and prices of electricity supply by somewhat more than 9%. Together they contributed around two thirds to the total growth of industrial producer prices, by our estimate. In March, domestic industrial producer prices on foreign markets increased only by 0.8% compared to March 2007 (see Graph 2). Graph 1: Year-on-year growth of consumer prices Graph 2: Year-on-year growth of domestic industrial producer prices_ 10 9 8 7 11 10 9 Source of data: SORS, Eurostat. Source of data: SORS. 8 7 6 6 % % 5 5 4 3 2 0 0 Money Market - Household Savings Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2008 p. 7 Household savings in banks and EUR m, nominal Nominal growth rates, in % in mutual funds managed by 31. III 2008/ 31. III 2008/ 31. III 2008/ domestic administrators 29. II2007 31. XII2007 31. III 2007 Total savings in banks 12,541.8 12,882.8 1.2 2.7 10.8 Domestic currency savings 12,164.2 12,531.0 1.4 3.0 12.0 Overnight deposits1 5,244.4 5,249.0 2.7 0.1 -0.1 Short-term deposits 4,941.7 5,260.2 0.7 6.4 19.1 Long-term deposits 1,246.0 1,218.2 -0.7 -2.2 11.0 Deposits redeemable at notice 732.1 803.5 0.4 9.8 88.8 Foreign currency savings 377.6 351.9 -4.2 -6.8 -19.0 Overnight deposits1 143.4 132.3 -3.6 -7.7 -29.5 Short-term deposits 170.7 160.9 -4.2 -5.8 -15.4 Long-term deposits 40.0 33.6 -7.9 -16.0 -26.8 Deposits redeemable at notice 23.5 25.1 -1.6 6.6 139.9 Mutual funds 2,924.4 2,622.2 -0.9 -11.2 21.3 Source of data: Monthly Bulletin of the BS, SMA (Securities Market Agency); calculations by IMAD. Note: 'demand deposits. Growth of the volume of household deposits in banks recorded a notable monthly increase in March compared to the previous two months. Euro savings continue to strengthen; foreign currency savings are declining for the tenth consecutive month due to lower interest rates and exchange rate risk. Among foreign currency deposits, deposits redeemable at notice declined in March as well, after continuous 13-month growth. Net inflows of household deposits to banks recorded EUR 341.0 million in the first quarter of 2008, 93.4% more than the year before. Contrary to the previous months, the volume of overnight deposits picked up considerably in March (by 2.5%), most likely as a consequence of the negative trends on capital markets (see p. 9), since assets from the sale of securities were transferred to bank deposits. The volume of overnight deposits was nevertheless lower than in the comparable period last year. Contrary to the previous months, growth of time deposits moderated notably and was at 0.3% at the monthly level, the lowest figure in the last four months. Year-on-year growth nevertheless rose to as much as 21.3%, the highest value since comparable data have been available. Growth of short-term deposits (0.6%) reached half of its 12-month average, whereas growth of deposits redeemable at notice (0.4 %) did not even reach a tenth and long-term deposits declined for the second consecutive month. The decline in the volume of assets in mutual funds managed by domestic administrators continued to a lesser extent in February as well. The decline was considerably smaller than in January, which is mainly attributable to the temporary moderation of the situation on capital markets. Unlike the previous month, the greatest decline was observed in mixed funds, by 1.2%, whereas money market mutual funds, which had almost all their assets invested in much safer bank deposits at the end of February, recorded a sharp increase for the second month in a row. In the first two months of 2008, the volume of assets in these mutual funds increased significantly, by as much as 43.2%. Money market mutual funds otherwise account only for 0.6% of all assets in the mutual funds of domestic administrators. Despite the significant decline in the first two months this year (-12.1%), stock mutual funds still accounted for 65.4% of all assets in the mutual funds of domestic administrators at the end of February, only 0.7 p.p. less compared to the end of 2007. In mutual funds managed by domestic administrators, a net outflow of assets was observed in February (EUR 4.7 million) for the second consecutive month. Total net outflows thus amounted to EUR 42.1 million in the first two months of 2008, whereas in the comparable period last year, total mutual funds recorded net inflows of assets in the amount of EUR 114.0 million. Graph 1: Net monthly flows of household deposits in banks and mutual funds Graph 2: Evolution of deposit interest rates 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 "TVT 657 I I I I I I "»"I "t™, » - - □Savings in banks D Mutual funds Deposits redeemable at notice of up to 3 months ' Time deposits over 1 and up to 2 years Short-term time deposits Source of data: BS, Securities Market Agency; calculations by IMAD. Source of data: BS. 5.0 4.5 4.0 % 3.5 3.0 2.5 Money Market - Loans Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2008 p. 8 Nominal amounts, in EUR m Nominal loan growth, in % Domestic bank loans 31. III 2008/ 31. III 2008/ 31. III 2008/ 29. II2008 31. XII2007 31. III 2007 Loans total 26,715.5 28,176.9 1.6 5.5 32.4 Domestic currency loans 24,796.8 25,948.4 1.4 4.6 28.6 Enterprises and NFI 18,509.5 19,502.4 1.5 5.4 33.8 Households 5,781.6 5,915.3 1.0 2.3 18.0 Government 505.7 530.6 1.9 4.9 -8.8 Foreign currency loans 1,918.7 2,228.5 4.3 16.1 99.5 Enterprises and NFI 869.2 994.3 3.1 14.4 106.7 Households 1,036.1 1,217.9 5.5 17.6 96.5 Government 13.4 16.3 -2.5 21.0 1.8 Household loans by purpose 6,817.7 7,133.2 1.8 4.6 26.6 Consumer credits 2,742.5 2,774.1 0.0 1.2 18.3 Lending for house purchase 2,667.9 2,883.0 3.0 8.1 38.7 Other lending 1,407.3 1,476.1 2.7 4.9 22.0 Source of data: BS Bulletin, calculations by IMAD. Note: NFI - non-monetary financial institutions. After the relatively strong growth in January, growth of domestic banks' lending activity was considerably below 2% in February and March. The decline in monthly growth rates of loans was fairly evenly distributed to euro and foreign currency loans. In the past two months, the latter recorded one of the lowest growth rates in the last 12 months. Higher deviations were seen in the loan structure by sector where growth of loans to enterprises and NFI recorded a greater slowdown and halved in the last two months relative to the 12-month average, whereas growth of household loans decreased by approximately a fifth. At the end of the first quarter, the total volume of loans was 5.5% higher relative to the end of 2007 (up 0.1 p.p. from the comparable period last year). This small difference is partly a result of the high base, since the total net flows in the first three months of 2008 amounted to EUR 1,461.4 million, a third more than in the first quarter last year. Monthly growth of loans to enterprises and NFI in March (1.6%) remained at a relatively low level for the second consecutive month. Year-on-year growth thus declined somewhat again, but was still at a high 36.1%. The volumes of all types of loans to enterprises and NFI are increasing, but in the last few months their growth rates have lagged behind the 12-month average. Net borrowing of enterprises and NFI from domestic banks amounted to EUR 1,118.1 million, which is just less than a quarter more than in the same period of 2007. Borrowing abroad is becoming a less important source of corporate financing, since enterprises took out net foreign loans amounting to EUR 91.3 million in the first two months, which is only 50% of the amount recorded in the same period last year. Net borrowing of domestic banks abroad strengthened somewhat in February, but remains below the average 2007 level. Short-term loans accounted for a significant part of banks' borrowing abroad again; banks even net repaid them in January. Net flows of foreign currency loans totalled EUR 223.3 million in the first two months this year, whereas in the same period last year banks even net repaid such loans (in the amount of EUR 82.3 million), as this kind of financing was less needed owing to the assets released upon the maturing of BS bills falling due. Households continue to take out mainly housing loans, which account for more than two thirds of net household borrowing from domestic banks in the first three months of 2008. Year-on-year growth of housing loans has remained around 38% for more than half a year despite the high base; they account for 40% of the total volume of household loans in the structure, which is still considerably below the EMU average, which exceeds 70%. In the first three months, households recorded net borrowing in the amount of EUR 315.6 million, a quarter more than in the comparable period last year. Foreign currency loans account for almost 60%; their share in the total volume of household loans increased by 6.1 p.p. year on year, to 17.1%, which signifies an increasing exposure of households to exchange rate risk. By our estimates, the bulk of these loans is denominated in Swiss francs. The dynamics of the exchange rate of CHF to EUR was unfavourable for borrowers in the first three months this year, since the value of CHF to EUR was 5.1% higher at the end of March compared to the end of 2007 (three times higher than the average difference between EURIBOR and LIBOR tied to CHF in the first quarter this year). The gap between the loan rises in Slovenia and in the EMU narrowed somewhat in the first quarter of this year (relative to the end of 2007). The volume of loans in the EMU recorded 2.2% growth in the first quarter of 2008 (compared to 2.5% in the same period last year). Non-banking sectors recorded net borrowing in the amount of EUR 248.7 billion in the first two months of 2008, which is 1.5% less than in the comparable period last year. The Slovenian net flows accounted for 0.6% of the total net flows. Graph: Evolution of year-on-year growth rates of loans in Slovenia and in the EMU 40 35 30 25 % 20 15 10 5 0 ■ Total ■ Households ■ Enterprises and NFI Total, EMU Households, EMU -----Enterprises and NFI, EMU Source of data: BS, ECB, calculations by IMAD. Stock Exchange Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2008 p. 9 Turnover and market capitalisation on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange Turnover, I-III2008 Market capitalisation, 31. III 2008 EUR m Growth rates (%), I-III 2008/I-III2007 EUR m Growth rates (%), 31. III 08/31. III 07 Total 485.2 -38.6 22,925.0 8.9 Official market Total 406.3 -38.8 18,454.0 6.6 Shares 385.1 -38.3 12,437.0 8.7 Bonds1 16.8 -18.5 5,892.0 2.9 Mutual funds 4.5 -76.3 125.0 -12.6 Semi-official market Total 78.9 -37.7 4,471.0 19.5 Shares 19.5 -69.3 2,614.0 34.1 Bonds 40.5 91.2 1,016.0 0.2 Shares of investment funds 18.8 -55.0 841.0 8.2 Source of data: LSE, calculations by IMAD. Notes: figures do not always add up due to rounding. 'including the turnover on the MMTS for the period in 2007. Negative developments on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange, which started already at the end of the third quarter last year, strengthened notably this year. The value of the main index SBI20 dropped by almost a quarter in the first three months of 2008, which is the greatest decline in the last 10 years. The index of authorised investment funds (PIX) recorded a somewhat smaller decrease and was down 16.7% at the end of March relative to the end of 2007; the bond index (BIO) stagnated in this period (-0.1%). The value of the main index decreased in all three months this year, in March even by as much as 13.6%. Year-on-year growth dropped from 78.1% at the end of 2007 to a mere 12.8%, the lowest level in the last year and a half. Extremely negative trends continued also in the first half of April, when the SBI20 fell by a good 15%; its value started to pick up later, likely as a result of good business results of companies listed on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange. The main index therefore declined by only 2.6% at the monthly level. Negative trends on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange are attributable to i) the onset of the international financial crisis in the second half of last year; ii) extremely strong growth in the past, when -according to stock exchange analysts - many securities on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange were overestimated relative to comparable securities on other capital markets; and iii) increasing uncertainty regarding further privatisation. Foreign investment certificates, which triggered considerable selling pressures when they fell due, also lowered the value of certain securities. Furthermore, the capital market was also affected by the slowdown of economic growth. The volume of the market capitalisation in the first quarter of 2008 fell by 14.6%. The decline was largely offset by the listing of new government bonds on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange in February, as their market capitalisation enjoyed the strongest quarterly growth in the last two years (16.4%). In contrast, the market capitalisation of shares dropped by 23.7%, posting approximately the same decline as the main index on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange. The market capitalisation of prime market shares was lower by as much as 30.2%, while other shares recorded a somewhat smaller decline (other shares on the official market -15.9%, semi-official market -8.5%). Turnover on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange dropped by almost two fifths year on year in the first quarter of 2008. Turnover in shares declined, and the volume of bond trading continued to fall as well. Against the background of the turnover decline on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange, Slovenia's capital market liquidity recorded an additional decrease in the first quarter; the share turnover ratio totalled 0.11, reaching the lowest level in the last two years. Developments on main international capital markets were strongly affected by the financial turmoil and cooling of the economy. The MSCI WORLD index, measured in euros, was down 16.5% in the first quarter of this year, the highest drop since the third quarter of 2002. Among the main indices, the DOW JONES index recorded the smallest decline (by 7.6%), most probably as a result of the strong activity of the Federal Reserve, which, besides ensuring liquidity, also cut its interest rate in the first quarter of 2008 (by as much as 2 p.p., to 2.25%, the lowest level in the last three years). Unlike in Slovenia, the indices on all main foreign capital markets rose in April. The value of the MSCI index thus increased by 6.8% in April. Graph: Year-on-year growth rates of the SBI20 and selected world indices 125 100 75 50 25 0 -25 DOW JONES ■ MSCI WORLD Source of data: LSE, finance.yahoo.com, calculations by IMAD. % General Government Revenue Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2008 p. 10 Growth index, nominal Structure, I-III General government revenue I-III 2008, III 2008/ III 2008/ I-III2008/ v tisoč EUR II 2008 III 2007 I-III2007 Total general government revenue 3,186,316 94.0 110.4 111.8 100.0 100.0 Corporate income tax 230,051 134.9 135.2 126.9 7.2 6.4 Personal income tax 465,504 103.9 112.1 114.3 14.6 14.3 Domestic taxes on goods & services 1,069,084 70.0 104.5 112.9 33.6 33.2 Value added tax 731,765 54.8 92.2 112.5 23.0 22.8 Excise duties' 273,273 110.8 130.4 113.7 8.6 8.4 Customs duties, other import taxes 25,584 106.3 102.2 119.1 0.8 0.8 Social security contributions 1,187,034 102.1 111.8 111.1 37.3 37.5 Payroll tax 53,053 100.5 60.7 58.8 1.7 3.2 Other revenue 156,006 125.4 122.3 116.1 4.9 4.7 Source of data: AP, PPA, B-2 Report 2007 (gross deposits); methodology and calculations by IMAD. Note: 1the figure is adjusted for excise duty payment periods. In the first three months of the year general government revenue rose by 4.9% in real terms, year on year. Revenue from corporate income tax recorded the highest real increase in this period (19.0%), which was mainly due to the method of the calculation and payment of the corporate income tax, since tax prepayments were still based on the tax calculation and regulations from 2006. From April onwards, tax prepayments for 2008 were determined anew on the basis of the tax calculation according to the changed legislation from 2007 (the definition of the tax base was changed somewhat, tax reliefs were reduced and statutory tax rates decreased from 25% to 23%). Revenue from customs duties and import taxes recorded above-average growth in the first three months (by 11.7% in real terms). However, this revenue has not accounted for a significant share in the structure of general government revenue since Slovenia joined the EU. Its strong growth is mainly linked to goods imports through the Port of Koper, which partly involves further transport to the EU (cars). In the first three months, revenue from value added tax increased by 5.5% in real terms. The revenue from VAT from imports recorded faster growth (8.6%); the real growth of the revenue from VAT related to domestic consumption was 4.7%. The real increase in revenue from excise duties totalled 6.7% in the first three months, year on year. The revenue from excise duties on tobacco and tobacco products rose at a faster pace than the average as a result of increased excise duty rates in the second half of 2007. Real growth of the revenue from excise duties on alcohol and alcoholic beverages was slower, as the excise duty rates remained unchanged since 2000. The revenue from excise duties on mineral oils also recorded lower growth due to reduced excise duty rates in the first quarter of 2008 relative to the same period last year. Revenue from social security contributions in the first quarter rose by a real 4.2%, year on year. The social security contribution rates remained unchanged (38.2%). After last year's reduction due to the enforcement of the new personal income tax act, real growth of revenue from personal income tax strengthened in the first three months. The revenue from personal income tax increased by a real 7.2% year on year; within that, the tax on income from employment increased by 6.1% in real terms and the taxes on other income (mainly on capital gains and income from real estate) by 12.2%. Refunds from the final annual income tax assessment for previous periods were considerably higher than the year before. The beginning of the year saw the adoption of the act amending the personal income tax act, which reduced the burden of tax-payers in lower income brackets by increasing the general tax relief. The revenue from personal income will decrease somewhat due to this measure. The further reduction of the payroll tax rates resulted in even lower revenue from this source. In the period of three months, the revenue from this tax shrank by 44.8% in real terms, year on year. In 2008, the tax is being paid for the last time before being phased out. The tax rates in individual tax brackets were cut considerably and total 1.1%, 2.3% and 4.4%. The average burden of this tax on the gross wage bill is estimated to decline from 3.4% in 2007 to 1.7% in 2008. Graph: General government revenue, in EUR million Q12006 Q22006 Q32006 Q42006 Q12007 Q22007 Q32007 Q42007 Q12008 n Other taxes ■ Payroll tax Q Social security contributions o Excise duties El Value-added tax □ Personal income tax O Corporate income tax Sources of data: AP, PPA, calculations by IMAD. Note: calculations to EUR under the technical assumption of the SIT/EUR exchange rate = 239.64. Labour Market Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2008 p. 11 Thousands of people Growth, in % Selected labour market indicators I-XII II XII II II2008/ II2008/ 0 2007/ 2007 2007 2007 2008 12008 II2007 0 2006 Registered labour force (A=B+C) 925.3 919.2 932.8 937.9 0.1 2.0 1.6 Persons in formal employment* 854.0 841.5 864.4 870.9 0.4 3.5 3.5 in enterprises and organisations 696.1 685.6 705.9 710.5 0.4 3.6 3.1 by those self-employed 69.9 67.3 70.8 70.8 0.9 5.2 5.1 self-employed and farmers 87.9 88.6 87.7 89.6 0.2 1.1 5.6 Registered unemployed 71.3 77.7 68.4 67.0 -3.2 -13.6 -16.9 women 39.1 42.1 36.7 35.7 -3.2 -15.0 -16.7 aged over 40 37.1 38.8 36.3 36.4 -1.5 -5.7 -6.5 unemployed more than 1 year 36.5 39.0 34.7 34.0 -2.0 -12.6 -12.8 Rate of reg. unemployment (C/A), in % 7.7 8.4 7.3 7.1 - - - male 6.3 7.0 6.1 6.0 - - - female 9.6 10.3 8.9 8.6 - - - Job vacancies 20.2 17.8 14.2 22.8 7.0 19.4 6.6 for a fixed term, in % 76.3 75.1 69.8 73.0 - - - Number of persons hired 13.3 11.6 9.7 13.0 3.0 9.2 2.6 lower education 4.1 3.8 2.6 4.2 6.1 14.8 5.2 secondary education 7.2 6.2 5.6 6.9 1.7 6.5 1.7 tertiary education 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.7 8.7 1.1 Sources of data: SORS, ESS; calculations by IMAD. Note: 'persons in employment according to administrative sources. Trends on the labour market are still favourable. As the number of persons in formal employment rose by 0.4% in February, the unemployment rate for that month declined to 7.1%, while the number of the registered unemployed fell to 64,295 in March. The inflow into unemployment was even lower than in February and lower than the outflow of the unemployed to employment. The number of vacancies and persons hired remained higher than in the year before and the number of work permits for foreigners increased again. The growth of formal employment continued in February. The number of formally employed persons increased by 3.605 (by 0.3% according to seasonally adjusted figures), most notably in construction (by 955 or 1.2%) and business services (by 795 or 1.0%), where the greatest increase was observed in legal, tax and business consultancy and in job brokering. Following the decline in December, employment also recorded a slight increase in manufacturing for the second month in a row, most notably in the manufacture of metals and metal products. The number of the registered unemployed continues to decline. This is a regular winter-spring phenomenon, but this year it started off from a level that was around 10,000 persons lower than last year. The number of registered unemployed persons dropped by 2,712 or 4.0% in March; 659 first-time job seekers registered as unemployed, along with 3,280 persons who lost work. Meanwhile, 4,119 unemployed persons found work, 874 persons moved into education, retirement or other forms of inactivity and 889 unemployed persons were struck off the unemployment register for neglecting their duties. The number of the registered unemployed fell by a further 769 persons for other reasons. Also in the first quarter of 2008, the number of registered unemployed persons shrank mostly due to the smaller inflow. The number of first-time job-seekers who registered as unemployed dropped by 23.6% over the same quarter last year, while the number of persons who lost work fell by 19.0%. On the other hand, the number of unemployed who found work was also lower year on year (by 16.2%). The drop in the number of the unemployed struck off for other reasons was lower year on year as well (by 15.5%). In the first quarter of 2008, the number of registered vacancies rose by 5.7% and the number of persons hired by 4.6% compared to the same quarter of 2007. In the structure of registered vacancies and the number of persons hired, jobs for secondary education still prevail (around 55% in both cases). Jobs for lower education account for around 30% (in both cases) and jobs for tertiary education account for around 14% of vacancies and approximately 15% of people hired. The number of work permits for foreigners continues to increase. It totalled 68.274 in February and as much as 72,090 in March, which is 6,255 or 9.5% more than in January. From January to March, the largest increase (by 2,548) was recorded in the number of seasonal permits for construction works, which totalled 6,307 in March, only 26 less than in October 2007, which posted the highest number in 2007. Graph: Increases in the number of persons hired by education level 24,000 20,000 16,000 12,000 8,000 4,000 0 Lower education ■ Secondary education Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Tertiary education Source of data: BS, ECB, calculations by IMAD. B C D E F Earnings Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2008 p. 12 Gross wage per employee, growth index Wages in EUR II2008 In nominal terms II 08/ 108 II 08/ II07 I-II08/ I-II07 In real terms II 08/ 108 II 08/ II 07 I-II 08/ I-II 07 Gross wage per employee, total 1,325.73 100.0 109.3 107.7 100.0 102.6 101.1 Private sector (activities A-K) 1,243.74 98.4 109.4 108.1 98.4 102.7 101.5 Agriculture 1,129.26 100.9 115.5 112.0 100.9 108.4 105.2 Fisheries 1,027.46 99.5 104.4 103.4 99.5 98.0 97.1 Mining and quarrying 1,642.33 102.3 110.4 108.1 102.3 103.6 101.5 Manufacturing 1,152.49 97.6 110.2 108.1 97.6 103.5 101.5 Electricity, gas, and water supply 1,598.16 96.1 110.1 109.4 96.1 104.1 102.7 Construction 1,081.47 99.0 108.6 108.0 99.0 102.0 101.4 Distributive trades 1,193.56 99.5 108.8 107.6 99.5 102.2 101.1 Hotels and restaurants 969.13 97.6 111.0 110.! 97.6 104.2 104.0 Transport, storage & communications 1,395.44 98.0 105.9 106.7 98.0 99.5 100.2 Financial intermediation 1,931.55 100.7 106.7 106.7 100.7 100.2 100.2 Real estate, renting, business services 1,411.69 98.5 110.8 109.4 98.5 104.0 102.7 Public services (activities L-O) 1,570.34 103.7 109.6 107.0 103.7 102.9 100.5 Public administration 1,648.42 106.4 114.3 110.6 106.4 107.3 103.! M Education 1,635.98 104.7 107.8 105.5 104.7 101.2 99.0 N Health and social work 1,451.70 101.0 108.0 105.8 101.0 101.4 99.3 O Other social and personal services 1,462.98 99.8 106.9 106.0 99.8 100.4 99.5 Source of data: SORS and IMAD calculations for the private sector and public services. Note: deflated by the consumer price index. The average gross wage per employee in February remained at January's level. The gross wage per employee in the private sector (activities A to K) declined by 1.6%, mainly because February was one working day shorter. The largest drop, by 2.2%, was recorded in the industry and construction group (activities C, D, E, F). The gross wage in production services (activities G, H, I) declined somewhat less, by 1.1%, whereas the smallest decrease (by 0.8%) was recorded in business services (activities J, K). While the gross wage in the private sector declined in February, it increased notably (by 3.7%) in public services (L to O), as a result of the 3.4% increase in starting-level wages in all public sector activities due to last year's higher inflation. This increase was agreed upon by the government and the public sector trade unions in the Agreement on the Demands of the Strike Committee of the Representative Public Sector Trade Unions. The adjustment for January was taken into account in the payment as well. Gross earnings in the public administration recorded the highest rise; the increase in education and social work was somewhat smaller due to higher wages on account of the payment of performance related bonuses, overtime work and hours worked on duty (see table) at the end of the year. The effect of the increase in starting-level wages due to last year's inflation was thus partially reduced. The negotiations on the necessary documents for implementing the new wage system in the public sector are in the final phase. The initialled Collective Agreement for the Public Sector defined the pay scale for pivotal jobs, which served as the starting point for negotiations on wages of other jobs in annexes to the collective agreements for activities. Negotiations by activity are in the final phase, as well as negotiations on other documents needed for smooth implementation of the new wage system. However, after the completion of negotiations on physicians' wages, the requirements for wage rises in education and judicial administration remain yet to be addressed. They may trigger additional requirements for general wage rises if compromises with the leading professions in these activities visibly affect the agreed ratios between the wages of employees in the public sector. The operation of the new wage system might be called into question in this case, as additional increases in expenditure on wages would translate into imbalances in the general government finances and jeopardise the competitiveness of the economy and efforts to moderate inflation. Graph: Nominal gross wage per employee by groups of activities 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2007 2008 Total Private sector (A to K) Public services • Industry, construction Production services Business services Source of data: BS, ECB, calculations by IMAD. A B C D E F G H J K L Manufacturing Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2008 p. 13 Selected economic indicators, growth rates, in % II2008/ 12008 II2008/ II2007 I-II2008/ I-II2007 I-XII 2007/ I-XII 2006 Production value1 5.4 8.8 4.8 8.1 - highly export-oriented industries2 3.3 13.5 10.1 17.0 - mainly export-oriented industries3 8.1 7.3 2.8 6.4 - mainly domestic market-oriented industries4 2.6 6.2 3.1 0.8 Average number of employees 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 Labour productivity 5.4 8.7 4.5 7.2 Level of inventories5 1.7 10.8 11.0 9.4 Turnover5 3.4 9.4 6.0 7.4 New orders5 -9.3 -1.0 -4.4 4.3 Domestic industrial producer prices 0.6 3.0 2.8 3.5 - domestic market 0.4 5.2 5.1 4.3 - foreign market 0.7 1.2 0.8 2.9 Source of data: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: Veal growth calculated on the basis of data on production value - SORS' recalculation with the IPI (provisional data); Manufacturing industries (DG, DK, DM) which have, according to data on Slovenian commercial companies from the AJPES, earned over 70% of their average net revenue from sales on foreign markets in the last three years on average; Manufacturing industries (DB, DC, DD, DH, DJ, DL, DN) which have earned 50-70% of their average net revenue from sales on foreign markets in the last three years on average; "manufacturing industries (DA, DE, DF, DI) which have earned less than 50% of their average net revenue from sales on foreign markets _in the last three years; 5real growth._ Growth of production increased in February, after three months of lower growth. Seasonally and working-day adjusted production growth was at 5.6% relative to January 2008, and 8.8% compared to February 2007. The chemical industry (DG), whose production increased by 13.1% relative to the same month last year, was the main contributor to growth (around 2 p.p.). Growth in the manufacture of transport equipment (DM) decelerated slightly in February, but is still strong, year on year (19.1%), the strongest among manufacturing's sub-industries. Real growth of turnover from sales on foreign markets exceeds turnover growth on the domestic market, whereas producer prices on the domestic market are increasing at a faster rate. The sales of manufacturing companies increased by a real 7.6% on the domestic market compared to February last year. Producer prices on the domestic market increased by 5.2% compared to February 2007. The sales of Slovenian manufacturing companies on foreign markets increased by 10.2% relative to February last year. Domestic producer prices on foreign markets increased by 1.2%, year on year. However, it should be noted that higher growth of Slovenian producer prices on the domestic market also partly results from a different price index structure on the domestic market and abroad. Business optimism remains at a relatively high level also for the coming months; however, more and more enterprises are reporting a deterioration of their competitive position on the domestic as well as on foreign markets. According to the seasonally adjusted data from April's business tendency survey in manufacturing, the confidence indicator fell by 1 p.p. compared to March. The share of surveyed enterprises expecting an improvement in the business climate was thus 8 p.p. higher than the share of those expecting a deterioration. The confidence indicator has hovered at a similar level over the last six months. According to the quarterly survey on the limiting factors to production, more companies reported insufficient domestic and foreign demand compared to the survey conducted in January. Among the limits to production, 11% of companies reported uncertain economic conditions, which is the highest value of this indicator since 2005. The share of enterprises which reported no limits to production was smaller (20%) relative to the last two years. Capacity utilisation remains at a high level of 85.7% (seasonally adjusted), but Slovenian manufacturing companies reported a deterioration of their competitive position on all markets (on the domestic market as well as on the markets inside and outside the EU). Graph: Real growth of turnover from sales and growth of domestic producer prices on the domestic and _foreign markets_ % \ \ / V / \ S \ X»" s \ \ v " . / \ - * - r, CDCDcDCOcDCDCDCOCDCDCDCDr^r^r^r^r^r^r^r^r^r^r^r^coco - Y-o-y real growth of turnover from sales on the domestic market (three-month moving averages) Y-o-y real growth of turnover from sales on foreign markets (three-month moving averages) ■ Y-o-y growth of domestic producer prices on the domestic market ■ Y-o-y growth of domestic producer prices on foreign markets Source of data: BS, ECB, calculations by IMAD. Transport Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2008 p. 14 ected transport indicators I-XII 2007 Growth, % QIV 2007/ QIV 2006 I-XII 2007/ I-XII 2006 I-XII 2006/ I-XII 2005 Railways, in million passenger km 812 0.2 2.4 2.1 Roads,1 in million passenger km 817 -1.5 -3.9 0.3 Urban, in thousand passengers 90,654 -3.9 -3.5 -3.4 Air, in million passengers km 1,186 27.6 13.7 2.3 Airport, in thousand passengers 1,504 19.6 13.3 9.0 Railways, in million tonne km 3,603 -3.7 6.8 3.9 Roads, in million tonne km 13,734 19.1 13.4 9.8 Maritime, in million tonne km 46,587 -8.7 -5.2 -6.4 Harbour, in thousand tonnes 15,852 0.8 2.5 22.5 Passenger transport Freight transport Source of data: SORS. Notes: 'excluding private transport of passengers by taxi, bus and car. From the aspect of sustainable development, certain negative trends in the area of transport have continued in Slovenia for several years. The decrease in public bus transport on account of the increase in transport by cars and rapid increase in the share of road freight transport compared to railway transport are unfavourable trends, which have been partly observed in other EU countries as well. In the final quarter of 2007, passenger transport saw the largest increase in air transport and the largest decline in city bus transport. Within land passenger transport, the declining trend of bus transport continued. The annual decline in the number of passengers in intercity and city bus transport (-3.9% and -3.5%, respectively) was also similar to the average annual decrease in the last three years (5.9% and 3.3%, respectively). The volume of railway passenger transport in the final quarter of 2007 did not strengthen significantly year on year; the 2.4% growth recorded in 2007 was also only slightly above the three-year average (2.1%). Air transport and airport transport posted vigorous growth in the final quarter of last year (27.6% and 19.6% year on year, respectively). The increases in 2007 (13.7% and 13.3%, respectively) were also somewhat greater relative to the average annual rises in the last few years. In air transport, this also enabled an increase in aircraft fleet (lease of one and purchase of two new aircrafts) and in airport transport, the completion of the first phase of the new passenger terminal and arrival of two new airline companies, which started to fly regularly from Ljubljana's airport last year. Within freight transport, road transport has increased significantly, whereas maritime freight transport is still decreasing slightly, following the boom recorded in this branch two years before. In the final quarter last year, the volume of freight transport by rail decreased by 3.7% relative to the same quarter of 2006, whereas 2007 as a whole saw a solid 6.8% growth, which exceeded the average growth in the last three years (4.6%). Road freight transport strengthened by as much as 19.1% in the final quarter of 2007; the high 13.4% annual growth nevertheless fell short of the annual average of the last three years by almost 2.p.p. Against the background of favourable international trends, maritime freight transport increased by a respective 30.6% and 41.8 % in 2004 and 2005, whereas it dropped by a respective 6.4% and 5.2% in 2006 and 2007. The fall in the volume of maritime transport in the final quarter last year (-8.7%) indicates that the slowdown continues. Harbour freight transport in the final quarter and in 2007 as a whole recorded only a slight increase, particularly compared to the high 22.5% growth in 2006 (average annual growth in the last three years totalled 9.5%). Road freight transport by domestic carriers recorded a much stronger increase than railway freight transport over the last few years, largely due to the increasing international transport (see graph). The volume of road freight transport (in tonne kilometres - tkm), which was almost as much as three times greater than railway transport in 2004, increased by 4,728 million tkm until 2007 (by 52.5%), whereas railway transport increased only by 454 million tkm (by 14.4%). In three years, road freight transport became almost four times greater than railway transport; the share of road transport within freight transport rose to 79.2%. Road transport growth strengthened particularly after Slovenia's accession to the EU and mainly through increased international transport (see SEM 1/2008: 14). The largest increase was recorded in cross-trade transport and cabotage, by 2,161 million tkm (by 155.2%). International transport of goods loaded in Slovenia increased by 1,323 million tkm (by 49.4%) and international transport of goods unloaded in Slovenia by 937 million tkm (by 35.1%). National road transport in Slovenia increased by a mere 306 million tkm (by 13.5%). Graph: Road and rail freight transport in 2004 and 2007 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 □ 2004 o 2007 National road transport Source of data: BS, ECB, calculations by IMAD. International International International National road transport road transport road transport rail -goods -goods -cross-trade transport loaded in unloaded in and cabotage Slovenia Slovenia onal rail transport - goods loaded in Slovenia International rail transport - goods unloaded in Slovenia Rail transit Energy Sector Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2008 p. 15 Selected indicators, growth rates in % I-III2007, v GWh I-III 2008, v GWh I-III 2008/I-III2007, v % Production of electricity 3,464 3,419 -1.3 Prod. in hydroelectric plants 590 534 -9.5 Prod. in thermal plants 1,369 1,371 0.1 Prod. in nuclear power plant 1,504 1,515 0.7 Consumption of electricity 3,435 3,352 -2.4 Through distribution network 2,705 2,791 3.2 Direct consumers 674 51 0 -24.4 Transmission losses 56 51 -7.7 Net electricity exports 29 67 129.1 Source of data: ELES, Electricity Balance for September and December 2007; calculations by IMAD. According to the first quarter data, trade in electricity between Slovenia and other countries strengthened this year; according to the balance forecasts, net exports can be expected at the annual level again. The volume of exports and imports of electricity in the first quarter of 2008 picked up by almost a fifth, year on year. A 143-GWh decrease in electricity consumption and a 766-GWh increase in production, which are planned in Slovenia's electricity balance (EEB) for 2008, mean that Slovenia would net export approximately the same quantity of electricity in 2008 as had to be net imported last year. Electricity output in the first quarter of 2008 declined somewhat, especially due to the lower production of hydroelectric power plants. Even though the latter was exactly the same as projected in the EEB, it was 9.5% lower than last year's production of hydroelectic power plants in the same period. Due to very low increases in the production of the nuclear power and thermal power plants, total electricity output in Slovenia declined by 1.3%. According to the EEB, electricity production is expected to increase by 5.9% this year, mainly as no regular overhaul is planned in the Krško nuclear power plant this year (unlike in the previous two years). The last overhaul was conducted in October 2007, whereas the next one is only due in 2009. Relative to 2007, the nuclear power plant wil thus additionally contribute about a month's output of electricity to the total output in 2008. The other part of the foreseen total output increase is expected to be contributed by hydroelectric power plants whose output was markedly under the average last year (17.8% down from the figure projected in the electricity balance). Electricity consumption in the first quarter of 2008 declined even more than production year on year, mainly due to one-quarter lower consumption of direct consumers. Direct consumers from the transmission network are certain major metal-processing companies, which are phasing out old and energy-intensive manufacturing ranges to partially replace them with new and less energy-intensive ones. As electricity consumption by these consumers reduced notably as late as at the end of last year, year-on-year electricity consumption in 2008 is expected to decrease almost the entire year due to the base effect. Year-on-year consumption of electricity through the distribution network increased by 3.2% in the first quarter, but total consumption nevertheless fell by 2.4%. As planned in the electricity balance, electricity consumption in Slovenia is expected to decline by 1.1% in 2008. After two years, the increase in production and the decrease in consumption in 2008 are expected to allow for net exports of electricity again; net electricity exports were recorded in the first quarter as well. The electricity balance trend moved towards net imports ever more frequently in the last four years. This trend is expected to halt somewhat in 2008 and net exports could total a few percent of the output again. International trade in electricity also increased significantly, at least in the first quarter (exports by 19.7%, imports by 18.0%), which indicates an improvement in the conditions for electricity trade. Graph: Trade in electricity between Slovenia and other countries 2,100 1,900 1,700 1,500 1,300 1,100 900 ß A ' X A / \ / \ /X • / * ; NA/ / \ 1 . i y \ .J N i • J f f m j f • / V* / • •/ • » v — V Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2004 2005 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2006 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2007 Q3 Q4 Q1 2008 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 Exports - trade Imports - trade ■ Net electricity exports (right axis) Source of data: ELES, Electric Energy Situation, various nos.; calculations by IMAD. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2008 p. 19 In 2006, growth of greenhouse gas emissions in Slovenia was mainly due to the increase in emissions from transport. According to the latest data, greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) rose by 0.6% in 2006 and were 1.2% above the emissions of the base year 1986 determined in the Kyoto Protocol, under which Slovenia is expected to reduce its GHG emissions in 2008-2012 by 8% relative to 1986. In 2006, growth of emissions was otherwise the lowest in the last few years (apart from 2003, when emissions decreased), due to a significant drop in energy intensity in the business sector and the mild winter that year. Growth of emissions was thus a consequence of transport emissions, which increased at an accelerated rate for the second year in a row. Emissions from the energy sector, in contrast, stagnated against the background of higher electricity production from thermal power plants and lesser use of heat. The decrease in emissions from household use of fuels even accelerated. Due to improved energy intensity in manufacturing, growth of industrial emissions slowed down as well. Furthermore, emissions from waste decreased for the first time since 1992, while emissions from agriculture, which otherwise vary considerably by year, increased (see Graph 1). High growth of transport emissions may jeopardise Slovenia's reaching the Kyoto target. In 2007, Slovenia adopted the national plan for the allocation of greenhouse gas emission allowances for the period 2008-2012, based on the Operational Programme for the Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions. According to the plan, a significant share (15.7%) of the emission reduction according to the Kyoto targets will be achieved by flexible mechanisms of the Kyoto protocol. These are emission reduction units (ERU) and certified emission reduction units (CER), achieving prices that are lower than prices of one tonne of CO2 in the European emission market (ETS) (see SEM 6/2007: 22-23). The Operational Programme also projects that due to the high increase in transport emissions, an additional purchase of emission reduction units may be necessary to reach the Kyoto targets. This is a real possibility, as the actual emissions in 2006 already exceeded the emissions foreseen in the Operational Programme, since passenger and freight transport recorded a high increase. According to the data on traffic at border crossings and the sale of automotive fuel to foreigners, transit traffic has been increasing even faster than domestic transport, especially after Slovenia joined the EU. Freight transport stands out the most, stimulated by high economic growth in the international environment and probably also as a result of the lowest price of automotive fuels in Slovenia among the neighbouring countries. Transport in all EU countries is increasing, but growth of transport emissions in Slovenia was among the highest in the period 1990-2006; the highest growth was recorded in Luxembourg, followed by Ireland, the Czech Republic, Cyprus, Portugal, Austria, Spain and Slovenia. However, according to the Kyoto burden-sharing targets for the EU-15, Ireland, Portugal and Spain are allowed to increase emissions, whereas Cyprus does not have a target and the Czech Republic exceeds its target. Except for the latter two, these countries also recorded the greatest distance above the Kyoto target in 2005 (see Graph 2). Increasing energy efficiency is the most cost effective way of reducing GHG emissions. The benefit of energy-efficiency measures in buildings (e.g. insulation, windows, energy-conserving renovation and construction) and installation of energy-saving appliances is twofold: besides decreasing GHG emissions, they also reduce energy consumption and, consequently, energy costs. These measures are especially important for Slovenia, which recorded relatively strong growth of electricity consumption over the last few years (3.7% on average in 2000-2006). Electricity consumption is higher in the business sector, where it is related to economic growth; electricity consumptions in households is relatively high as well. Measures for efficient energy use can, indirectly, also help to increase the share of renewable energy resources. The government passed the Energy Efficiency Action Plan for the period 2008-2016 this January, to achieve 9% energy savings relative to the base year, in compliance with the Directive on Energy End-Use Efficiency and Energy Services. The total value of the necessary investment exceeds EUR 1 billion; within that, public investment accounts for more than half. The basic problem is that the source of a third of the necessary public funds has not been provided yet. Given the highly unexploited energy efficiency potential in Slovenia, the cost efficiency of buying emission allowances instead of promoting policies for the reduction of GHG emissions at home appears questionable. Graph 1: GHG emissions Graph 2: Projections of changes in GHG emissions in 2010 with existing measures and taking into account the Kyoto flexible mechanisms and distance-to-target (under- and overachievement), in %, relative to the base year g 140 "M 120 m 100 to ? 80 60 40 1986 1990 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 u Total - Energetics - Transportation Industrial processes ■ Energy consumption in households - Wastes -----Energy consumption in industry —□— Agriculture —i— Other Source of data: EIONET-SI: Environmental indicators in Slovenia (ARSO), 2007. 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 Source of data: EEA, 2007. Note: Projections until 2010 are based on projections of countries submitted by 31 May 2007. EU-27, Cyprus and Malta do not have a target under the Kyoto Protocol. Note: see p. A 20 for country abbreviations. □ Projections until 2010 □ Kyoto target aUnder-/overachievement % Regional Disparities in GDP Per Capita in Purchasing Power Parities in the EU Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2008 p. 20 Index Ratio between the best and the worst performing regions in the country Coefficient of variation, % Index Ratio between the best and the worst performing regions in the country Coefficient of variation, % EU 27 = 100 EU 27 = 100 2000 2005 2000 2005 2000 2005 2000 2005 2000 2005 2000 2005 LV 36.8 49.9 3.6 3.7 46.8 51.3 LT 39.4 53.2 2.2 2.9 19.0 23.5 EE 44.7 62.9 2.3 2.5 38.7 41.2 CZ2 68.6 76.6 2.6 2.8 21.3 23.3 HU1 56.2 64.3 N/A 4.2 N/A 40.0 FR 115.6 111.9 6.3 6.1 23.9 22.7 SK 50.2 60.6 3.6 4.2 27.8 33.8 SI 78.8 86.9 2.0 2.2 19.9 22.4 BG 27.9 35.3 2.6 3.2 27.1 32.5 FI 117.6 115.1 2.2 2.1 21.8 19.8 RO 25.9 35.4 4.5 4.7 28.7 31.9 ES2 97.6 103.0 2.2 2.1 20.5 18.0 GR 84.3 96.4 3.6 3.8 22.9 29.1 NL2 134.6 131.1 2.6 2.8 16.7 17.2 DE2 118.8 115.2 6.8 6.8 28.1 28.3 SE2 127.0 123.8 1.8 1.7 15.1 15.5 PT 78.2 75.4 3.1 3.0 27.4 28.1 MT 83.8 77.4 1.3 1.4 3.4 4.1 BE2 126.2 121.1 4.7 4.8 27.6 27.5 PL3 48.4 51.3 4.7 5.2 N/A N/A UK2 117.2 119.3 9.0 8.2 26.6 26.5 LU1 244.3 264.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A IE 131.0 143.7 2.2 2.0 22.5 25.9 DK1 131.9 126.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A AT 133.5 128.8 2.6 2.8 26.0 25.1 CY1 89.0 92.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A IT2 117.1 104.8 3.1 2.9 25.0 24.2 - - - - - - - GDP per capita in purchasing power parities Source of data: Eurostat, calculations by IMAD. Note: Due to the comparability of data, data for 2005, the latest available data for the NUTS 3 level, were used at the national level as well; provisional data for Italy for 2000 and for Germany and the Netherlands for 2005; Eurostat's estimate for Ireland for 2005. 1The country has no NUTS 3 regions or no data are available at this level. 2No data are available for certain NUTS 3 regions in _the country. 3No data are available for more than half NUTS 3 regions in the country. See A 21 for country abbreviations._ EU members are closing the gap with the EU average mainly at the national level. In 2005, the most prosperous country, Luxembourg, recorded 7.5 times higher GDP per capita than the poorest EU member, Romania (see table). Reaching 86.9% of the EU-27 average, Slovenia was ranked second among the new member states (after Cyprus). In 2000-2005, the countries reduced their lag behind the EU average mainly at the national level. The greatest progress was posted by Ireland, Greece and Spain, the main recipients of cohesion policy funds in 1994-2006; Portugal, the fourth main recipient of funds, recorded notably worse results and widened the gap. New member states are catching up with the EU average faster as well, particularly those with lower GDP per capita (e.g. the Baltic states). Relative to 2000, Slovenia narrowed its gap with the EU average by 8.1 index points in 2005. The member states are less successful in narrowing disparities within the states. Disparities between the best- and worst-performing regions are substantial; in many member states they are much higher than in Slovenia (see graph). Between 2000 and 2005, they increased in most countries. The greatest increase was recorded in Lithuania (0.7), Bulgaria and Slovakia (0.6). In seven of 23 countries the gap narrowed, most notably in the state recording the greatest disparities, Great Britain (-0.8). In Slovenia, the gap between the best- and worst performing regions increased somewhat as well (by 0.2). The coefficient of variation also indicates an increase in regional disparities in most EU members. In the analysed period, the highest increase was recorded in Greece and Slovakia (by more than 6 p.p.) and the largest decrease in Spain and Finland (by more than 2 p.p.). Slovenia is ranked among the members with the smallest regional disparities (see table) by both measures. Within the framework of the cohesion policy, the EU allocates significant funds for levelling disparities between regions, but is more successful in decreasing disparities between than within the member states. This is partly attributable to the recent enlargement and partly to GDP growth concentration in the most dynamic regions within the states. In the period 2000-2005, disparities between the least and most developed regions increased largely on account of faster GDP growth per capita in the capitals. In most countries, the most vigorous economic activity is observed in regions with capital cities, which is reflected in the highest GDP per capita in these regions (with the exception of Germany, Greece, Spain and Italy). In capital regions, GDP per capita rose significantly especially in the new member states (the Baltic states, Bulgaria and the Czech Republic); the greatest increase was observed in Estonia (by 29.2 index points), while GDP per capita in Slovenia rose by 15.4 index points (relative to the EU average). Graph: Regional disparities at the NUTS 3 level in EU member states, 2005 500 o 400 o 300 1 LU 200 m 0 (j 100 n i= 0 F55 * Best-performing region in the country ■ Average x Worst-performing region in the country r*i * * a ig m m * UK DE FR BE NL GR PL AT SK IT HU CZ IE PT FI ES SE SI LV RO EE LT BG MT DK CY LU Source of data: Eurostat. Note: see p. A 20 for country abbreviations. Business Entities Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2008 p. 21 Number of business entities on 31 December 2007 Activity Business entities, total Legal entities Natural persons Total Sole proprietors Other natural persons 1 = 2 + 3 2 3 = 4 + 5 4 5 A 2,312 579 1,733 735 998 B 134 34 100 91 9 C 141 76 65 64 1 D 19,128 7,685 11,443 10,897 546 E 489 242 247 201 46 F 19,521 6,303 13,218 13,209 9 G 25,573 14,422 11,151 11,061 90 H 9,314 2,338 6,976 5,226 1,750 I 9,694 2,879 6,815 6,798 17 J 1,651 859 792 792 0 K 27,906 14,883 13,023 11,695 1,328 L 12 3 9 9 0 M 1,041 498 543 51 9 24 N 2,987 801 2,186 544 1,642 O 11,564 1,587 9,977 5,276 4,701 TOTAL 131,467 53,189 78,278 67,117 11,161 Source: AJPES - Business register of Slovenia. In 2007, the number of business entities registered in the Business Register of Slovenia (PRS) increased for the fourth consecutive year. At the end of 2007 it totalled 131,487; within that, 78,278 (59.5%) were natural persons and 53,189 (40.5%) legal entities. The predominant type among natural persons was sole proprietors (85.7%); the highest number was recorded in construction. The predominant type of legal entities was limited liability companies (89.0%), followed by general partnerships (4.9%), limited partnerships and joint-stock companies (2.1% each). The first three legal forms of organisation were most common in real estate, renting and business services and in wholesale and retail trade, and the repair of motor vehicles and consumer goods, while most joint-stock companies operated in manufacturing. The year 2007 saw the greatest increase in the number of business entities in the last four years. The number of business entities registered in the PRS at the end of 2007 was 7,213 (5.8%) higher when compared to data from the end of 2006. Within that, the number of natural persons increased by 3,558 (4.8%) and the number of legal entities by 3,655 (7.4%). The number of natural persons increased largely on account of the increased share of sole proprietors, for their number rose by 2,820 (4.4%), most notably in real estate, renting and business services (by 1,249 or 12.0%) and in construction (by 805 or 6.5%). In legal entities, the number of individual legal forms of organisation at the end of 2007 cannot be compared to previous periods because of the changes made during the preparations for including court register data into the centralised PRS database in the second half of 2007 and related to the unification of data on legal forms of organisation in both registers. These preparations were necessary for the implementation of the Act amending the Court Register Act (Official Gazette, Nos. 33/07 and 93/07), according to which the centralised information database of the court register became part of the PRS managed by AJPES in February 2008. The data nevertheless show that the total number of business entities saw the highest increase in real estate, renting and business services for the fifth consecutive year, followed by a rise in construction for the fourth year in a row. The increase in the number of business entities in both activities was the highest in 2007, which can be explained by increased activity in both sectors. In all quarters of the last four years except the first quarter of 2006 (see SEM 5/2007:20), more business entities (legal and natural) were established than closed down. In the first three quarters of 2007, the number of openings exceeded the number of closures in the group of sole proprietors the most; in the final quarter, this was in the group of legal entities (see graph). Graph: Establishments and closures of business entities by quarter of 2007 5,000 4,000 ■ o 3,000 EE z 2,000 ■ 1,000 0 F 369 ^ : 2,606 ' 1,293 304 Establishments 1,793 ; 542 Cessations Q I 430 2,397 1,237 231 1,320 V- 568 Establishments Cessations Q II 2,268 1,280 1,256 V 283 establishments Cessations Q III 817 g 2,392 1,515 292 1,415- 397 Establishments Cessations Q IV 3 Other natural persons □ Individual private entrepreneurs d Economy subjects - legal entities Source of data: AJPES - Business Register of Slovenia. Solvency of Business Entities Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2008 p. 22 Legal entities having outstanding matured liabilities for more than 5 consecutive days in a month in 2007 Month Number of legal entities Average daily amount (in EUR thousand) Of which more than 365 days No. of legal entities Average daily amount (in EUR thousand) January 3,086 111,124 1,233 69,447 February 2,968 113,345 1,250 68,895 March 3,174 120,942 1 ,277 74,785 April 3,299 126,766 1 ,244 75,052 May 3,343 129,990 1 ,271 76,640 June 3,320 131,729 1 ,289 78,235 July 3,267 132,074 1 ,237 75,223 August 3,133 125,968 1 ,222 70,800 September 3,292 128,382 1,197 66,255 October 3,306 124,713 1,206 69,843 November 3,373 120,690 1 ,246 69,562 December 3,456 110,866 1 ,295 61,743 Source of data: AJPES, calculations by IMAD. The number of insolvent legal entities declined in 2007 relative to 2006. This is confirmed by i) a smaller average monthly number of legal entities which had outstanding matured liabilities for more than five consecutive days in a month; ii) a smaller number of legal entities struck off the court register according to the Financial Operation of Companies Act (ZFPP); iii) a smaller number of filed compulsory settlements; and iv) a smaller number of filed bankruptcy and liquidation procedures against legal entities. For each month of 2007, 3,251 legal entities on average had outstanding matured liabilities for more than five consecutive days in a month; the average daily amount totalled EUR 123 million. Among them, 1,247 (38.4%) legal entities had outstanding matured liabilities for over one year continually, averaging out at a daily amount of EUR 71 million (58.0% of the average daily amount of the matured liabilities that were outstanding for more than five consecutive days in a month). A comparison of data with the year before shows that the average monthly number of legal entities that had matured liabilities outstanding for more than five consecutive days in a month decreased by 3.0%, while the average daily amount of their liabilities was 2.1% higher. The average monthly number of legal entities that had outstanding matured liabilities for over one year continually decreased by as much as 13.9%; the average daily amount of their liabilities decreased as well (by 8.4%). Despite this decrease, the legal entities that had outstanding matured liabilities for over a year still accounted for a large share in the analysed records and met the conditions to be struck off the register pursuant to the ZFPP. In accordance with the ZFPP, the courts issued a decision to strike 556 legal entities off the register of companies in 2007, 39.8% fewer than in 2006, while 687 legal entities were actually struck off, 67.8% less than in 2006 (see SEM 5/2007:22). In 2007, the number of compulsory settlements filed at courts was 19.5% lower than in 2006, while the total number of bankruptcy and liquidation procedures declined by 2.1%. According to the data released in the Official Gazette of the RS, the following procedures were filed at courts in 2007: i) 66 compulsory settlement procedures (16 fewer than in 2006), 51 of which were against legal entities (25 fewer than in 2006) and 15 against sole proprietors (9 more than in 2006); ii) 533 bankruptcy procedures (19 fewer than in 2006), 309 of which were against legal entities (65 fewer than in 2006) and 224 against sole proprietors (46 more than in 2006) and iii) 28 liquidation procedures (7 more than in 2006), 27 of which were against legal entities (6 more than in 2006) and 1 against a sole proprietor (in 2006, no liquidation procedures were filed against sole proprietors). Graph: Total number of bankruptcy and liquidation procedures filed in 2001-2007 3 Individual private entrepreneurs □ Legal entities 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Source of data: 2006 2007 Official Gazette of the RS. Gross Domestic Product / I Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2008 p. A 2 2004-2006 constant previous year prices, 2007-2010 constant 2006 prices In EUR m (fixed 2007 exchange rate) Real growth rates in % 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 forecast forecast VALUE ADDED BY ACTIVITIES AND GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT A Agriculture, hunting, forestry 616 581 596 579 591 603 612 -4.4 -3.8 -3.7 2.0 2.0 1.5 B Fishing 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 20.4 1.5 -4.6 1.0 1.0 1.5 C Mining and quarrying 117 128 137 135 136 135 131 0.4 7.5 -0.2 0.5 -0.5 -3.0 D Manufacturing 5,783 6,016 6,419 6,913 7,256 7,608 8,023 3.6 8.5 8.3 5.0 4.8 5.4 E Electricity, gas and water supply 639 729 781 820 861 887 914 5.7 5.7 3.5 5.0 3.0 3.0 F Construction 1,179 1,320 1,645 1,970 2,098 2,141 2,217 4.9 15.2 18.7 6.5 2.0 3.5 G Wholesale, retail; certain repairs 2,621 2,835 3,146 3,410 3,555 3,692 3,860 4.5 6.1 7.6 4.3 3.8 4.5 H Hotels and restaurants 481 531 573 630 661 691 719 1.2 2.9 2.4 5.0 4.5 4.0 I Transport, storage and communications 1,680 1,847 2,087 2,212 2,355 2,497 2,636 6.1 9.4 6.2 6.5 6.0 5.5 J Financial intermediation 1,098 1,164 1,192 1,469 1,550 1,674 1,801 10.5 9.8 12.1 5.5 8.0 7.5 K Real estate, renting and business services 3,697 4,084 4,371 4,646 4,844 5,064 5,294 3.5 3.7 3.7 4.3 4.5 4.5 L Public administration and defence 1,408 1,487 1,569 1,647 1,700 1,749 1,784 2.9 2.9 2.1 3.2 2.8 2.0 M Education 1,240 1,372 1,448 1,518 1,545 1,574 1,606 3.3 1.7 1.3 1.8 1.8 2.0 N Health and social work 1,149 1,249 1,296 1,339 1,373 1,404 1,453 5.2 1.6 1.3 2.5 2.2 3.5 O Other community and personal services 765 875 914 986 1,008 1,028 1,049 3.3 1.2 1.9 2.2 2.0 2.0 P Private households with employed persons 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5.9 -3.5 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 VALUE ADDED (A+...+P) 22,481 24,227 26,183 28,284 29,541 30,757 32,110 4.0 6.0 6.2 4.4 4.1 4.4 Taxes on products and services 3,456 3,687 3,838 4,152 4,318 4,484 4,688 4.7 3.9 5.1 4.0 3.8 4.5 Less: subsidies on products and services 122 131 162 140 144 147 150 -0.4 10.0 1.4 2.5 2.5 2.0 GDP 25,814 27,783 29,859 32,295 33,715 35,093 36,648 4.1 5.7 6.1 4.4 4.1 4.4 Sources of data: SORS 2004-2007, IMAD's Spring Forecast 2008. Gross Domestic Product / II Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No.4/2008 p. A 3 In EUR m (fixed 2007 exchange rate), current prices Structure in %, current prices, GDP=100 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20010 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20010 forecast forecast SUPPLY AND USE OF GROSS NATIONAL DISPOSABLE INCOME 1. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 26,677 28,243 30,448 33,542 36,308 39,234 42,270 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 2. Net primary income with the rest of the world -314 -244 -328 -702 -881 -938 -976 -0.9 -1.1 -2.1 -2.4 -2.4 -2.3 3. GROSS NATIONAL INCOME (1+2) 26,364 28,000 30,120 32,839 35,427 38,296 41,294 99.1 98.9 97.9 97.6 97.6 97.7 4. Net current transfers with the rest of the world -44 -144 -210 -286 -48 -12 -30 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 5. GROSS NATIONAL DISPOSABLE INCOME (3+4) 26,320 27,856 29,910 32,553 35,378 38,285 41,264 98.6 98.2 97.1 97.4 97.6 97.6 6. Final consumption expenditure 19,628 20,717 22,116 23,640 25,885 27,760 29,746 73.4 72.6 70.5 71.3 70.8 70.4 Private consumption 14,494 15,245 16,259 17,537 19,137 20,485 21,897 54.0 53.4 52.3 52.7 52.2 51.8 Government consumption 5,134 5,472 5,857 6,103 6,748 7,274 7,849 19.4 19.2 18.2 18.6 18.5 18.6 7. GROSS SAVINGS (5-6) 6,692 7,139 7,794 8,914 9,494 10,525 11,518 25.3 25.6 26.6 26.1 26.8 27.2 8. GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION 7,387 7,705 8,634 10,490 11,180 11,628 12,417 27.3 28.4 31.3 30.8 29.6 29.4 9. SURPLUS ON THE CURRENT ACCOUNT WITH THE ROW (7-8) -695 -566 -839 -1,576 -1,686 -1,103 -899 -2.0 -2.8 -4.7 -4.6 -2.8 -2.1 Sources of data: SORS 2004-2007, BS; IMAD's Spring Forecast 2008. EXPENDITURE STRUCTURE OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, 2004-2006 constant previous year prices, 2007-2010 constant 2006 prices In EUR m (fixed 2007 exchange rate Real growth rates, in % GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (3+4+5) 25,814 27,783 29,859 32,295 33,715 35,093 36,648 4.1 5.7 6.1 4.4 4.1 4.4 1. Exports of goods and services 15,247 17,298 19,982 23,184 25,442 27,825 30,525 10.1 12.3 13.0 9.7 9.4 9.7 2. Imports of goods and services 15,418 17,115 20,159 23,761 25,781 27,727 30,125 6.7 12.2 14.1 8.5 7.5 8.6 3. EXTERNAL BALANCE * (1-2) -170 183 -177 -577 -339 98 399 2,0* 0,0* -0,9* 0,7* 1,3* 0,9* 4. FINAL CONSUMPTION 19,019 20,182 21,569 22,704 23,544 24,331 25,172 2.8 4.1 2.7 3.7 3.3 3.5 Private consumption 14,077 14,881 15,858 16,766 17,375 18,023 18,712 2.7 4.0 3.1 3.6 3.7 3.8 Government consumption (individual and collective) 4,942 5,301 5,712 5,937 6,169 6,308 6,460 3.2 4.4 1.4 3.9 2.3 2.4 5. GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION 6,966 7,418 8,466 10,169 10,510 10,664 11,077 0.4 9.9 17.8 3.4 1.5 3.9 Gross fixed capital formation 6,390 6,953 7,813 9,325 9,828 10,079 10,533 2.5 8.4 17.2 5.4 2.6 4.5 Changes in inventories and valuables* 575 465 653 844 682 585 544 -0,5* 0,6* 0,6* -0,5* -0,3* -0,1* Sources of data: SORS 2004-2007, BS, IMAD's Spring Forecast 2008. Note: *as contributions to real GDP growth (in percentage points). Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD Industrial Production No. 4/2008 p. A 4 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2006 2007 2007 2008 Qiv QI QII QIII QIV 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION by sectors *, indices, 2000=100; 2007 data are provisional INDUSTRY, total 106.9 112.8 116.5 123.7 131.9 130.6 128.3 133.3 129.9 136.1 124.7 121.1 139.1 128.4 134.8 136.6 136.2 117.9 135.6 148.5 142.7 117.2 125.5 131.1 C Mining and quarrying 104.9 97.6 104.2 115.0 118.8 134.5 113.4 129.9 107.0 124.9 93.8 107.6 138.7 133.6 135.2 120.8 92.1 121.4 107.4 132.4 145.0 97.4 105.8 118.4 D Manufacturing 106.5 111.6 115.6 123.2 133.1 129.3 128.6 135.0 131.6 137.3 124.2 121.5 140.0 129.2 136.6 139.2 138.8 117.9 138.0 150.8 143.9 117.3 125.4 132.1 DA Food, beverages, tobacco 99.6 89.4 88.0 87.9 86.7 95.5 78.9 89.6 88.2 90.3 75.4 75.3 85.9 88.4 89.8 90.6 90.9 89.0 84.6 93.3 89.8 87.8 75.0 77.1 DB Textiles & textile products 71.3 61.7 54.1 52.3 52.1 47.5 56.8 51.6 50.0 49.9 55.2 52.5 62.6 52.0 49.8 53.1 54.3 41.2 54.4 58.9 47.9 42.9 51.5 52.3 DC Leather & leather products 72.7 68.2 72.7 76.5 60.1 77.7 72.8 52.3 59.1 56.1 86.0 61.0 71.5 53.2 51.2 52.4 80.8 51.6 45.0 62.9 63.6 41.7 65.9 51.4 DD Wood & wood products 91.0 94.7 100.7 104.1 115.8 108.4 111.2 124.2 113.8 113.8 96.7 110.3 126.7 119.6 128.5 124.5 122.0 103.4 115.9 131.0 117.3 93.2 97.1 110.2 DE Paper, publishing, printing 1 100.6 101.2 104.8 103.9 104.3 109.5 100.7 103.2 105.1 107.9 100.6 92.1 109.5 100.8 106.5 102.4 109.0 104.2 102.2 111.8 110.0 101.9 100.7 100.2 DF Coke, petrol. prod., nuclear fuel 2 36.3 - - - 21.4 20.9 22.3 18.6 20.1 24.7 22.8 21.2 23.0 18.8 18.4 18.6 20.2 18.8 21.2 25.4 27.8 21.0 25.1 27.8 DG Chem., prod., man-made fibers 128.0 147.5 158.7 179.4 218.4 189.3 201.1 213.9 218.8 239.6 209.4 193.6 200.4 206.8 199.2 235.8 241.5 180.7 234.3 272.5 250.0 196.2 216.4 219 DH Rubber & plastic products 103.6 116.5 122.2 130.0 142.5 135.9 135.2 141.3 146.7 146.7 127.4 125.6 152.6 131.0 146.8 146.1 145.6 136.9 157.5 166.7 157.0 116.3 131.8 147.5 DI Non-metal mineral products 101.6 84.6 78.7 83.6 88.3 89.2 78.7 92.5 93.0 89.0 71.8 73.0 91.2 84.9 96.7 96.0 96.5 88.5 93.9 102.2 98.0 66.9 73.2 79 DJ Basic metals & fabricated. prod. 112.0 107.8 116.3 129.8 142.2 136.6 143.2 146.5 139.6 139.5 142.1 134.6 152.8 141.7 147.6 150.1 145.3 130.6 142.8 149.9 150.4 118.2 136.1 145.6 DK Machinery & equipment nec. 120.9 138.5 140.9 149.5 165.7 161.7 164.0 166.8 162.0 169.8 152.4 154.8 184.8 163.2 169.0 168.3 164.9 141.2 179.9 184.5 182.0 142.8 157.8 172.6 DL Electrical & optical equipment 122.8 153.0 157.7 181.5 195.1 193.6 186.2 201.9 187.9 204.6 173.4 175.1 210.0 185.2 213.9 206.7 192.0 164.6 207.0 226.6 213.5 173.6 176.0 192.5 DM Transport equipment 111.7 152.7 184.7 177.7 205.7 173.3 195.4 206.5 196.2 224.7 179.9 184.7 221.7 184.3 216.7 218.6 231.0 141.5 216.2 240.5 232.4 201.1 225.2 219.9 DN Manufacturing nec. 102.6 103.4 108.7 107.5 104.1 111.1 105.3 106.4 97.7 107.1 96.7 104.2 115.0 103.2 110.6 105.5 105.7 81.6 105.8 116.1 113.8 91.4 95.3 104.4 E Electricity, gas & water supply 3 111.3 132.9 130.9 129.6 115.2 140.9 126.4 104.2 111.7 118.5 142.4 117.5 119.3 108.3 102.4 101.8 115.0 111.2 109.0 116.4 117.8 121.4 131.7 116.7 NUMBER OF PERSONS IN PAID EMPLOYMENT IN INDUSTRY 4 Total, in 1000 255.1 251.7 247.3 243.3 245.1 244.7 244.6 245.5 244.8 245.6 244.1 244.8 245.0 245.2 245.5 245.6 245.1 244.6 244.8 245.9 246.1 244.8 244.8 244.9 C Mining & quarrying 4.8 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 D Manufacturing 238.9 236.1 231.8 227.9 229.9 229.2 229.4 230.2 229.6 230.4 228.9 229.6 229.7 230.0 230.2 230.3 229.8 229.3 229.7 230.7 230.9 229.7 229.8 229.9 E Electricity, gas & water supply 11.4 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.5 11.3 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.6 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.3 CONSTRUCTION 5, real indices of construction put in place, indices 2000=100 Construction 105.7 108.4 111.7 128.8 152.5 169.4 104.0 157.8 173.9 174.1 88.7 98.1 125.1 136.2 171.0 166.3 166.1 174.2 181.3 206.8 175.4 140.2 123.1 138.9 Buildings 104.9 114.6 126.4 144.2 166.8 179.6 123.0 172.7 181.6 189.7 107.2 115.3 146.5 150.9 182.7 184.6 184.8 183.1 177.0 195.5 203.4 170.2 166.2 165.7 Civil engineering 106.4 102.6 98.0 114.5 143.1 160.0 91.5 148.1 168.8 163.9 76.6 86.8 111.1 126.5 163.3 154.4 153.8 168.3 184.2 214.3 157.0 120.5 94.8 121.2 Persons in paid employment in construction 4 99.1 97.5 102.0 109.6 122.0 114.3 114.1 120.3 125.3 128.1 112.9 114.4 114.8 118.0 120.4 122.7 124.0 125.2 126.8 128.3 129.1 126.8 127.3 128.8 Source of data: SORS. Notes: *From February 2004 onwards the industrial production indices have been provisional. For the period up until January 2004 they are calculated according to data on produced quantities of industrial goods. From February 2004 onwards, data on production value have been taken as the basis for the calculation. The value of production is calculated according to the following formula: turnover in the month (x) + value of stocks in the month (x) - value of stocks in the month (x-1).1Enterprises with activity of publishing are excluded; 2data not published because of confidentiality; 3only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. In January 2005, the SORS adopted a new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARiMa model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labor Force Survey. Data for previous years dating back to January 2000 have also been calculated according to the new methodology. 5The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD Production No. 4/2008 p. A 5 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2006 2007 2007 2008 QIV QI QII QIII QIV 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 TRANSPORT Passenger-km in transport for hire or reward, in m 1,065 980 848 850 817 223 209 222 167 219 62 76 69 80 73 45 43 79 79 74 67 72 63 Passenger-km in rail transport, in m 778 764 777 788 812 210 196 202 204 210 - - - - - - - - - - - - - Passenger-km in air transport, in m 837 896 1,019 1,044 1,186 200 183 289 459 255 56 65 79 88 121 1 61 158 1 39 107 77 72 72 73 Tonne-km in rail transport, in m 3,274 3,466 3,402 3,373 3,603 942 91 8 913 865 908 - - - - - - - - - - - - - Tonne-km in maritime transport, in m 28,361 37,047 52,513 49,155 46,586 11,494 10,813 13,224 12,050 10,499 2,949 3,387 4,884 3,967 4,373 4,585 3,676 3,790 3,390 2,628 4,481 4,515 4,650 Tonne-km in road transport, in m 7,040 9,007 11,033 12,112 13,734 3,020 3,103 3,418 3,617 3,596 - - - - - - - - - - - - - Urban passenger traffic, in m 98.4 100.2 97.2 94.0 90.7 27.7 26.3 23.3 14.4 26.7 8.5 9.1 8.3 7.8 7.2 4.1 3.8 6.6 8.9 9.0 8.8 8.5 8.3 Airport passengers traffic, in 000 922 1,047 1,228 1,339 1,505 282 251 382 535 336 78 91 108 1 23 152 1 84 181 1 69 140 102 94 95 97 Harbour freight transport, in 000 t 10,788 12,063 12,625 15,462 15,847 4,158 4,282 3,967 3,406 4,191 1,323 1,762 1,091 1,383 1,493 1,113 1,167 1,126 1,331 1,422 1,438 1,374 1,571 Transport of gas, million m3 1 ,098 1,097 1,136 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - TOURISM, overnight stays, in 000 Total 7,503 7,589 7,573 7,722 8,261 1,389 1,472 1,997 3,327 1,465 497 502 568 619 811 1,226 1,325 776 573 441 452 486 542 Domestic tourists 3,327 3,226 3,173 3,233 3,393 620 700 786 1,253 654 282 242 208 239 339 503 489 261 228 203 223 198 315 Foreign tourists 4,175 4,363 4,399 4,489 4,868 769 771 1,211 2,074 811 215 261 359 380 472 723 836 515 344 238 229 288 227 Health resorts 2,360 2,417 2,464 2,550 2,651 601 560 636 841 614 192 193 205 205 226 282 325 234 233 201 180 177 201 Seaside 2,010 2,002 1,949 1,925 1,993 270 203 535 987 268 62 94 140 1 53 243 390 390 206 115 88 64 45 71 AGRICULTURE, slaughter in slaughterhouses, in 000 tons Cattle 43.1 40.1 37.4 37.9 36.2 8.4 11.7 8.0 8.6 8.1 2.5 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.7 3.5 4.3 3.8 2.9 2.8 Pigs 37.3 34.6 31.7 33.6 33.2 7.9 8.4 8.2 8.5 7.8 2.5 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.8 2.6 3.3 2.8 2.8 Poultry 56.0 52.0 53.4 49.2 58.9 12.3 12.5 13.9 14.3 15.2 4.1 5.2 4.6 4.7 5.0 5.2 5.1 4.8 5.4 41.8 40.7 46.2 5.4 4.8 5.2 4.4 Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EURO m 103.3 102.4 103.7 106.7 492.2 26.1 33.4 101.3 109.7 120.8 31.1 37.9 37.5 38.4 33.8 38.3 53.1 61.0 38.5 39.3 FISHING, in tons Catches in marine waters 1087.5 815.9 1021.6 736.7 795.3 179.3 174.5 246.0 230.9 143.8 65.3 25.8 39.6 77.8 128.7 51.1 123.4 56.4 60.6 47.8 35.5 - - Source of data: SORS. Balance of Payments Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2008 p. A 6 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2006 2007 2007 2008 QIV QI QII QIII QIV 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, in EUR m Current account -196 -720 -561 -857 -1,641 -512 -260 -231 -357 -793 -164 -63 -107 -126 2 -92 -54 -211 -207 -245 -342 -218 -209 Goods 1 -543 -1,009 -1,026 -1,151 -1,664 -570 -246 -384 -387 -646 -82 -80 -143 -161 -80 -90 -1 03 -194 -177 -187 -283 -144 -137 Exports 11,417 12,933 14,599 17,028 19,777 4,543 4,782 5,004 4,926 5,065 1,513 1,798 1,578 1,714 1,712 1,741 1,477 1,709 1,856 1,783 1,427 1,668 1,715 Imports 11,960 13,942 15,625 18,179 21,441 5,113 5,028 5,389 5,313 5,711 1,595 1,879 1,721 1,875 1,792 1,830 1,580 1,903 2,032 1,969 1,709 1,812 1,853 Services 540 688 849 866 1,040 160 204 342 337 157 35 70 101 116 126 85 133 119 63 42 51 58 60 Exports 2,465 2,783 3,143 3,449 4,116 855 829 1,015 1,294 978 233 297 332 334 349 436 458 399 357 285 336 318 302 Imports 1,925 2,095 2,294 2,584 3,075 695 625 673 957 821 198 227 231 218 224 351 325 281 293 242 286 260 242 Income -219 -322 -288 -398 -725 -100 -143 -157 -205 -220 -48 -53 -51 -52 -54 -65 -70 -70 -70 -73 -77 -70 -65 Receipts 510 530 648 902 1,019 242 21 8 269 259 272 70 76 88 91 90 83 85 91 89 90 94 89 96 Expenditure 728 852 936 1 ,300 1,744 342 361 427 464 492 119 128 139 1 43 144 149 155 161 159 163 170 160 161 Current transfers 26 -76 -97 -173 -292 -2 -76 -31 -102 -84 -69 0 -13 -29 11 -23 -1 4 -65 -23 -28 -33 -62 -66 Receipts 474 561 738 785 910 237 197 239 220 253 59 87 76 66 97 71 90 60 74 85 94 58 58 Expenditure 449 638 835 958 1,203 238 273 271 322 337 128 87 89 95 87 93 104 125 98 113 126 119 124 Capital and financial account 46 698 818 1 ,050 2,032 424 500 275 259 998 329 306 75 -38 237 191 11 57 203 354 442 165 136 Capital account -165 -96 -114 -1 31 -52 -96 15 -27 -32 -8 6 -9 0 -7 -20 -11 3 -24 7 5 -21 6 2 Financial account 211 794 932 1,182 2,084 519 485 302 291 1,006 323 315 76 -31 257 202 8 80 196 349 462 160 134 Direct investment -151 224 -43 -207 -81 -154 -120 -14 -106 159 -70 34 -20 -79 85 -26 27 -107 130 -62 91 85 -22 Domestic abroad -421 -441 -516 -71 8 -1,154 -218 -307 -245 -404 -198 -148 -56 -118 -108 -19 -141 -59 -204 23 -145 -76 -35 -30 Foreign in Slovenia 270 665 473 51 2 1,073 64 187 230 298 357 78 90 97 29 104 115 85 97 108 83 167 119 8 Portfolio investment -223 -637 -1,466 -1,444 -2,273 -677 -623 -1,203 377 -823 -151 430 -414 -620 -169 234 119 24 -360 -483 20 -5 594 Financial derivatives 0 6 -10 -1 3 -22 2 2 -2 -12 -9 -4 1 0 0 -2 -7 -5 -1 -11 1 1 3 3 Other investment 849 945 2,639 1 ,564 4,320 954 1,172 1,533 0 1,616 671 -143 455 733 344 -131 -125 256 417 921 277 76 -477 Assets -730 -1,308 -1,459 -1,936 -4,647 -264 -2,311 -396 -1,373 -567 -791 -811 -819 498 -75 -600 -352 -421 -268 -341 42 179 -891 Commercial credits -116 -237 -226 -435 -426 120 -375 -178 29 98 -160 -190 -95 -9 -73 31 152 -154 -229 -18 345 -68 -198 Loans -223 -281 -340 -733 -1,807 -297 -351 -439 -419 -599 -75 -258 -45 -203 -191 -215 -144 -60 -120 -125 -354 167 -26 Currency and deposits -323 -720 -872 -747 -2,424 -90 -1,605 219 -972 -66 -550 -322 -665 708 176 -402 -363 -207 76 -198 56 66 -669 Other assets -68 -69 -21 -21 10 3 20 1 -11 0 -7 -41 -14 3 13 -13 3 0 5 -1 -5 13 2 Liabilities 1,579 2,252 4,098 3,500 8,968 1,218 3,483 1,929 1,373 2,182 1,463 669 1,275 235 419 469 227 677 685 1,262 235 -102 414 Commercial credits 59 214 291 468 512 282 275 52 -83 267 220 227 -17 85 -16 54 -297 161 167 94 7 -67 66 Loans 1,123 1,671 2,731 2,064 3,761 467 15 1,546 895 1,305 -54 -72 1,021 294 230 220 251 424 204 873 227 96 208 Deposits 428 335 1,053 998 4,727 448 3,208 338 567 613 1,282 521 279 -140 199 188 281 98 328 299 -14 -134 150 Other liabilities -31 33 23 -30 -32 21 -16 -7 -6 -2 16 -6 -9 -5 6 7 -8 -6 -14 -4 16 2 -10 International reserves 2 -264 256 -189 1,281 140 394 55 -11 32 64 -123 -7 55 -65 -1 132 -8 -91 20 -28 72 0 37 Statistical error 150 22 -257 -194 -391 88 -240 -44 98 -205 -165 -243 31 164 -239 -99 43 154 4 -109 -100 53 73 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods 1,172 1,333 1,392 1 ,680 1,933 705 455 508 466 505 134 185 159 176 173 166 1 40 160 180 165 159 N/A N/A Intermediate goods 5,989 6,926 7,723 9,368 10,438 2,203 2,611 2,674 2,560 2,593 836 964 856 922 896 918 778 864 959 927 707 N/A N/A Consumer goods 4,124 4,523 5,282 5,709 7,014 1,589 1,645 1,720 1,790 1,859 520 622 536 575 609 619 520 651 679 653 526 N/A N/A Import of investment goods 1,974 2,104 2,163 2,565 3,004 978 658 736 740 870 211 249 229 265 242 246 199 295 303 299 268 N/A N/A Intermediate goods 7,209 8,492 9,764 11,319 12,874 2,981 3,154 3,215 3,162 3,343 988 1,160 1,017 1,120 1,078 1,105 955 1,102 1,161 1,185 998 N/A N/A Consumer goods 3,056 3,547 3,877 4,456 5,609 1,183 1,240 1,447 1,413 1,509 402 478 478 494 476 478 424 511 576 492 440 N/A N/A Sources of data: BS, SORS. Notes: Exports and imports (F.O.B.) include also the adjustment for exports and imports of goods by ITRS and duty-free shops reports; 2 reserve assets of the BS. Monetary Indicators Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2008 p. A 7 2005 2006 2007 2006 2007 2008 December 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 \ 9 \ 10 \ 11 \ 12 1 1 2 MONETARY SYSTEM - CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, end of the month, in SIT bn; since 1 January 2007 in EUR m Banknotes and coins 217.3 172.8 2,947 172.8 2,709 2,684 2,689 2,721 2,737 2,769 2,801 2,787 2,786 2,804 2,818 2,947 2,781 2,794 Overnight deposits at other MFI 1,491.0 1,694.6 7,057.0 1,694.6 6,902 6,866 6,867 6,887 7,056 7,194 7,257 7,134 7,152 6,931 6,774 7,057 7,073 6,776 Overnight deposits of NFI at the BS 2.8 5.0 47 5.0 47 37 36 37 40 41 50 57 58 54 42 47 49 38 Overnight deposits of other government sector (central government excluded) at the BS 2.7 1.3 6 1.3 6 7 5 5 6 7 8 10 9 6 6 6 6 6 Total overnight deposits at the BS 5.5 6.4 53 6.4 53 43 41 43 47 48 58 67 67 60 48 53 55 44 Deposits with agreed maturity at the BS 0.3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Deposits with agreed maturity at other MFI 1,688.0 1,746.4 8,700 1,746.4 7,379 7,441 7,607 7,514 7,578 7,694 7,967 8,209 8,178 8,449 8,269 8,700 8,710 8,925 Deposits at redeemable notice 122.4 197.5 1,280 197.5 962 918 985 991 1,087 1,133 1,171 1,224 1,277 1,300 1,366 1,280 1,317 1,348 Debt securities, units/shares of money market funds and repos 9.5 8.1 76 8.1 29 32 46 52 52 61 62 66 69 80 81 76 75 91 Banknotes and coins and demand deposits 1,713.9 1,873.7 10,057 1,873.7 9,664 9,593 9,597 9,650 9,840 10,011 10,116 9,989 10,005 9,794 9,640 10,057 9,910 9,614 Banknotes and coins and deposits with maturity of up to two years 3,524.6 3,817.6 20,037 3,817.6 18,005 17,952 18,189 18,156 18,506 18,838 19,254 19,421 19,460 19,543 19,275 20,037 19,937 19,888 Banknotes and coins and instruments with maturity of up to two years 3,534.2 3,825.8 20,113 3,825.8 18,035 17,984 18,235 18,208 18,557 18,899 19,316 19,487 19,529 19,624 19,355 20,113 20,012 19,978 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in SIT bn; since 1 January 2007 in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 17.4 16.6 67 16.6 69 69 69 68 68 68 68 68 67 67 67 67 67 67 Central government (S. 1311) 780.5 776.6 2,367 776.6 3,184 3,219 2,944 2,748 2,574 2,465 2,408 2,342 2,345 2,348 2,374 2,367 2,412 2,397 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 23.1 24.9 118 24.9 108 106 107 105 107 107 107 110 111 114 112 118 123 124 Households (S. 14, 15) 1,025.9 1,289.4 6,818 1,289.4 5,428 5,488 5,633 5,748 5,892 6,015 6,157 6,323 6,468 6,607 6,830 6,818 6,918 7,009 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 2,620.9 3,236.0 18,105 3,236.0 14,086 14,250 14,660 15,142 15,426 15,788 16,274 16,720 17,004 17,269 17,748 18,105 18,570 18,754 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 230.9 368.1 2,305 368.1 1,554 1,563 1,574 1,761 1,747 1,911 2,034 2,083 2,205 2,367 2,396 2,305 2,390 2,407 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 1,408.2 1,158.7 2,401 1,158.7 3,505 2,770 2,267 2,033 2,257 2,211 2,218 2,439 2,448 2,460 2,580 2,401 2,455 2,432 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 2,099.2 2,298.2 26,555 2,298.2 21,761 21,634 21,726 22,297 23,089 23,558 24,146 24,892 25,310 25,864 26,596 26,555 27,164 27,406 In foreign currency 2,199.4 3,149.0 1,990 3,149.0 1,048 1,100 1,160 1,248 1,335 1,456 1,560 1,638 1,699 1,789 1,900 1,990 2,117 2,192 Securities, total 1,791.0 1,406.6 3,570 1,406.6 5,055 4,662 4,299 3,992 3,577 3,484 3,492 3,488 3,573 3,511 3,544 3,570 3,586 3,525 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in SIT bn; since 1 January 2007 in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 2610.3 2902.9 20,029 2902.9 17,823 17,912 17,914 18,066 18,367 18,446 18,880 19,299 19,386 19,579 19,558 20,029 20,088 20,674 Overnight 987.0 1178.1 6,887 1178.1 6,645 6,598 6,648 6,676 6,849 6,953 7,047 6,881 6,907 6,695 6,573 6,887 6,924 6,557 With agreed maturity - short-term 1175.5 1251.2 8,913 1251.2 7,673 7,837 7,639 7,758 7,777 7,592 7,867 8,331 8,247 8,689 8,723 8,913 8,899 9,862 With agreed maturity - long-term 309.9 292.4 2,857 292.4 2,486 2,492 2,560 2,569 2,573 2,693 2,728 2,790 2,874 2,820 2,817 2,857 2,845 2,803 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 137.8 181.2 1,372 181.2 1,019 985 1,067 1,063 1,168 1,208 1,238 1,297 1,358 1,375 1,445 1,372 1,420 1,452 Deposits in foreign currency, total 1346.6 1454.5 559 1454.5 634 614 607 597 615 610 605 628 608 589 585 559 571 560 Overnight 534.8 552.7 218 552.7 311 293 285 264 280 274 270 278 269 255 260 218 248 240 With agreed maturity - short-term 481.2 545.5 248 545.5 240 239 237 251 248 249 242 258 248 241 226 248 229 237 With agreed maturity - long-term 295.2 318.3 56 318.3 64 64 62 60 61 60 61 62 60 60 57 56 55 48 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 35.4 38.0 37.0 38.0 19 18 23 22 26 27 32 30 31 33 42 37 39 35 Source of data: BS. Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD Prices No. 4/2008 p. A 8 Indices, 2005 = 100 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2007 2008 2007 2008 QI QII QIII QIV Ql 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 GROWTH IN SELECTED PRICE INDICATORS CPI 94.2 97.6 100.0 102.5 106.2 103.1 105.8 106.9 108.8 109.9 103.8 104.9 106.1 106.5 106.6 106.9 107.3 108.0 108.9 109.4 109.5 109.4 110.9 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 100.3 100.8 100.0 102.3 110.2 105.3 108.7 110.7 116.1 120.0 105.5 107.5 109.3 109.2 109.5 109.7 113.0 115.5 115.5 117.3 120.4 119.9 119.8 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 91.0 96.3 100.0 103.7 110.5 107.1 108.0 113.6 113.2 112.9 107.4 107.6 108.1 108.2 113.9 114.0 113.1 113.2 113.1 113.2 113.0 112.8 112.9 Clothing and footwear 99.3 101.0 100.0 99.5 101.6 95.4 105.7 97.1 108.1 100.1 100.1 103.4 106.8 107.0 95.0 94.2 102.3 106.8 109.9 107.7 95.6 97.8 106.8 Housing, water, electricity, gas 85.4 91.7 100.0 105.3 108.1 104.2 107.1 109.3 111.7 115.2 105.1 106.7 107.0 107.7 108.5 110.3 109.1 110.2 112.3 112.5 115.7 113.8 116.0 Furnishings, household equip. 94.3 96.5 100.0 104.1 108.7 107.0 108.3 109.0 110.4 111.9 107.5 108.0 108.2 108.8 108.8 109.1 109.1 109.9 110.5 111.0 111.1 111.3 113.2 Medical, pharmaceutical products 98.8 100.3 100.0 98.3 99.4 99.9 99.9 99.1 98.7 99.4 100.8 100.0 99.7 99.9 100.0 98.7 98.7 98.8 98.8 98.7 98.3 98.5 101.3 Transport 92.1 97.4 100.0 101.3 101.6 99.7 102.6 102.1 101.9 102.6 100.1 101.6 102.9 103.2 102.9 102.2 101.1 100.7 102.5 102.4 102.7 102.0 103.2 Communications 99.8 100.0 100.0 100.3 100.6 100.0 99.6 100.9 101.8 102.2 99.2 99.3 99.7 99.7 100.6 100.8 101.5 101.4 100.8 103.1 102.5 102.1 102.1 Recreation and culture 94.2 97.7 100.0 102.1 105.8 102.5 104.3 110.6 105.9 107.2 102.3 102.0 104.4 106.4 111.0 113.0 107.9 105.5 105.6 106.6 106.5 108.0 107.3 Education 87.1 93.4 100.0 103.1 105.0 103.1 104.7 105.7 106.7 107.9 103.0 103.0 105.6 105.6 105.6 105.6 106.0 106.7 106.7 106.7 106.6 107.0 110.2 Catering services 91.1 95.8 100.0 104.5 112.1 109.2 110.8 112.8 115.5 119.4 109.6 110.3 111.0 111.1 111.8 112.7 113.9 114.4 115.6 116.6 119.0 119.5 119.8 Miscellaneous goods & services 94.5 98.1 100.0 104.1 107.8 106.4 107.1 108.2 109.4 110.6 106.7 106.7 107.2 107.3 107.8 108.3 108.5 108.8 109.6 109.9 110.1 110.6 111.2 HCPI 94.2 97.6 100.0 102.5 106.4 103.4 106.2 107.0 109.0 110.1 104.1 105.3 106.5 106.8 106.7 106.9 107.4 108.2 109.2 109.6 109.7 109.6 111.0 Producer price indices (domestic market) 93.4 97.4 100.0 102.3 107.8 105.9 107.4 108.2 109.9 112.1 106.9 107.1 107.4 107.7 107.8 107.7 108.9 109.6 110.1 110.1 111.0 112.4 113.0 Intermediate goods 91.4 96.9 100.0 103.5 111.9 109.1 111.7 112.6 114.3 117.0 110.7 111.3 111.8 112.1 112.3 112.1 113.5 114.2 114.3 114.4 115.2 117.7 118.0 Capital goods 94.7 97.0 100.0 100.2 101.5 101.2 101.1 101.5 102.0 102.6 101.3 101.4 101.0 100.9 101.6 101.4 101.6 102.1 101.9 101.9 102.4 102.2 103.4 Consumption goods 95.3 98.1 100.0 101.5 104.4 103.1 103.6 104.2 106.7 108.8 103.4 103.2 103.5 104.0 103.8 103.8 105.1 105.8 107.1 107.2 108.2 108.8 109.4 PRICE CONTROL1 Energy prices 83.3 89.4 100.0 108.0 108.6 102.6 109.5 110.1 112.4 116.1 103.7 107.5 110.3 110.7 111.8 109.8 108.5 108.5 114.4 114.3 116.5 112.6 119.1 Oil products 80.2 86.7 100.0 110.3 109.3 101.4 110.9 111.3 113.5 116.5 103.0 107.5 112.3 112.9 113.5 111.0 109.3 108.7 115.9 115.9 117.3 112.3 119.8 Electricity for households 93.8 98.6 100.0 101.6 - 101.7 107.1 - - - 102.4 107.1 107.1 107.1 - - - - - - - - - Basic utilities 88.6 96.2 100.0 97.4 95.2 93.8 94.7 97.2 95.1 95.1 94.4 94.7 94.7 94.7 94.7 101.7 95.2 95.2 95.1 95.1 95.1 95.1 95.0 Transport & communications 95.2 97.9 100.0 101.5 102.1 101.9 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.4 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.8 Other controlled prices 89.8 95.7 100.0 102.6 105.6 104.9 104.9 106.3 106.4 106.4 105.3 105.3 104.7 104.7 105.5 107.1 106.4 106.4 106.4 106.4 106.4 106.4 106.4 Direct control - total 85.5 91.5 100.0 107.0 110.4 105.6 110.8 112.0 113.2 115.6 106.6 109.4 111.3 111.7 112.6 112.7 110.7 110.7 114.5 114.4 115.9 113.3 117.7 Source of data: SORS, calculations and estimates IMAD. Note: 1 the structure of groups varies, data published are not directly comparable to those published previously. The electricity market was liberalized on 1 July 2007. Data from July 2007 onwards are not comparable. Interest Rates and Investment Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2008 p. A 9 Annual average 2007 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits - - 0.47 0.32 0.36 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.37 0.42 0.40 0.41 0.44 0.41 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year - - 3.34 2.96 3.36 2.83 2.91 3.01 3.07 3.15 3.26 3.36 3.41 3.61 3.89 3.83 4.04 4.08 3.95 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans 1-5 year fixed interest rate - 4.18 4.99 4.56 5.80 5.16 5.44 5.50 5.35 5.37 5.36 5.79 5.98 6.16 6.45 6.44 6.58 6.75 6.40 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million 1-5 year fixed interest rate 8.58 5.36 5.23 4.64 5.76 5.49 6.53 - - 4.86 5.12 6.49 - 5.76 5.59 - 6.25 - - INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operations 2.25 2.00 2.02 2.78 3.85 3.50 3.50 3.75 3.75 3.75 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3 - month rates 2.33 2.11 2.19 3.58 4.28 3.75 3.82 3.89 3.98 4.07 4.15 4.22 4.54 4.74 4.69 4.64 4.85 4.48 4.36 6 - month rates 2.31 2.15 2.24 3.58 4.35 3.89 3.94 4.0C 4.10 4.20 4.28 4.36 4.59 4.75 4.66 4.63 4.82 4.50 4.36 LIBOR CHF 3 - month rates 0.33 0.47 0.80 1 .51 2.55 2.15 2.21 2.26 2.32 2.41 2.55 2.72 2.80 2.82 2.79 2.75 2.77 2.70 2.74 6 - month rates 0.38 0.59 0.87 1 .65 2.65 2.26 2.32 2.36 2.44 2.54 2.70 2.85 2.86 2.90 2.89 2.85 2.84 2.77 2.77 Sources of data: BS, BBA- British Bankers' Association. Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD Labour Market No. 4/2008 p. A 10 Number in thousand 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2006 2007 2007 2008 Q IV Q I Q II Q III Q IV 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 A FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 899.1 900.3 905.0 910.7 925.3 914.0 919.1 923.5 924.6 934.2 919.2 920.0 921.6 923.6 925.4 924.5 923.1 926.0 934.0 935.8 932.8 936.6 937.9 B PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (C+D) 801.4 807.5 813.1 824.8 854.0 834.5 841.8 852.7 856.1 865.4 841.5 845.8 849.0 852.9 856.2 854.4 854.6 859.4 864.5 867.4 864.4 867.3 870.9 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 37.7 41.2 38.7 38.9 41.6 38.5 43.1 42.0 41.0 40.3 43.1 43.1 41.9 42.0 42.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 40.4 40.3 40.2 41.8 41.9 In industry, construction 318.4 313.9 310.9 313.3 322.9 317.6 317.4 322.2 324.8 327.3 317.8 318.3 320.5 322.3 323.9 324.3 324.4 325.7 327.7 328.4 325.7 326.0 327.1 Of which: in manufacturing 238.9 236.1 233.7 227.9 229.9 229.2 229.4 230.2 229.6 230.4 229.6 229.7 230.0 230.2 230.3 229.8 229.3 229.7 230.7 230.9 229.7 229.8 229.9 in construction 63.3 62.2 61.7 69.9 77.8 72.9 72.8 76.8 80.0 81.7 73.0 73.3 75.3 76.8 78.3 79.1 79.9 80.9 81.8 82.4 80.9 81.2 82.2 In services 445.2 452.3 463.5 472.6 489.5 478.4 481.3 488.5 490.3 497.8 480.7 484.4 486.6 488.6 490.3 489.1 489.2 492.7 496.4 498.7 498.5 499.6 502.0 Of which: in public administration 47.7 49.9 49.1 50.2 50.1 50.1 49.7 50.1 50.2 50.3 49.7 49.7 49.9 50.1 50.2 50.2 50.2 50.2 50.3 50.3 50.4 50.6 50.7 in education, health-services, social work 102.7 105.0 106.5 109.1 110.0 110.0 109.9 110.2 109.3 110.6 109.9 110.2 110.4 110.1 110.2 109.0 108.7 110.1 110.6 110.8 110.5 110.9 111.4 C FORMALLY EMPLOYED 1 722.1 724.4 731.6 741.6 766.0 750.7 753.1 764.7 768.6 777.8 752.9 757.0 761.3 764.9 768.1 767.0 767.1 771.6 777.0 779.7 776.7 777.9 781.3 In enterprises and organisations 656.0 658.7 666.2 675.1 696.1 682.6 685.8 695.0 697.5 706.2 685.6 689.0 692.4 695.1 697.5 696.2 696.1 700.1 705.2 707.7 705.9 707.8 710.5 By those self-employed 66.2 65.6 65.4 66.5 69.9 68.2 67.3 69.8 71.1 71.6 67.3 68.0 68.9 69.8 70.6 70.8 71.0 71.5 71.8 72.0 70.8 70.2 70.8 D SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS 79.2 83.1 81.5 83.3 87.9 83.7 88.7 87.9 87.6 87.6 88.6 88.8 87.8 88.0 88.1 87.3 87.5 87.8 87.5 87.7 87.7 89.4 89.6 E REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT 97.7 92.8 91.9 85.8 71.3 79.5 77.3 70.9 68.4 68.8 77.7 74.2 72.6 70.7 69.3 70.1 68.5 66.7 69.5 68.4 68.4 69.2 67.0 Female 51.6 49.3 49.4 47.0 39.1 43.6 42.0 39.3 38.0 37.3 42.1 40.7 40.2 39.2 38.5 39.3 38.1 36.7 38.0 37.1 36.7 36.9 35.7 By age: under 26 25.5 24.3 22.2 18.2 11.9 16.0 14.0 11.6 10.3 11.7 14.2 12.8 12.2 11.5 11.1 11.1 10.4 9.5 12.2 11.6 11.2 11.1 10.3 older than 40 43.1 39.7 40.1 39.7 37.1 37.9 38.7 37.2 36.6 36.1 38.8 38.1 37.7 37.2 36.7 36.9 36.6 36.3 36.1 36.0 36.3 37.0 36.4 Unskilled 43.2 38.6 37.5 33.7 28.0 30.8 30.4 27.7 27.0 26.9 30.7 29.0 28.2 27.7 27.1 27.2 27.0 26.7 27.0 26.8 27.1 27.6 26.9 For more than 1 year 47.5 42.9 43.4 41.9 36.5 40.2 38.8 36.7 35.5 35.0 39.0 37.9 37.4 36.8 36.0 35.8 35.6 35.0 35.3 35.0 34.7 34.7 34.0 Those receiving benefits 24.3 22.3 23.3 22.7 16.6 19.4 19.1 16.8 15.8 14.7 19.1 18.3 17.2 16.9 16.3 16.3 16.0 15.2 14.8 14.5 14.7 15.6 N/A F RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 10.9 10.3 10.2 9.4 8.4 8.7 8.4 7.7 7.4 7.4 8.4 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.5 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.1 G FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE -10.2 1.5 8.0 5.2 21.5 1.6 8.7 5.4 0.6 6.7 1.2 0.8 1.6 2.0 1.8 -0.9 -1.4 2.9 8.0 1.8 -3.0 3.8 1.4 New unemployed first job seekers 25.4 26.0 21.7 18.6 14.7 8.2 2.9 2.4 2.3 7.2 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.0 5.3 1.2 0.6 0.9 0.6 Redundancies 68.8 69.6 67.2 63.8 52.5 14.8 15.4 11.6 12.6 12.9 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.7 4.9 3.5 4.2 4.5 4.3 4.1 5.8 3.4 Registered unemployed who found employment 50.5 54.3 53.9 57.4 49.1 13.6 14.8 12.1 11.3 10.9 4.4 5.2 4.2 4.1 3.7 3.0 3.8 4.4 4.3 4.1 2.5 4.1 4.2 Other unemployed erased out of register 47.3 46.6 33.1 39.2 28.0 11.3 7.6 6.9 6.2 7.4 2.5 3.1 2.4 2.5 2.0 1.6 1.9 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.2 1.8 2.1 Change in number of work permits for foreigners 3.5 -0.5 3.9 7.8 15.3 0.3 3.9 4.9 4.3 2.2 1.2 2.5 3.6 1.7 -0.5 2.2 1.6 0.5 1.7 0.3 0.2 -0.2 2.4 Retirements 2 19.4 21.0 18.4 20.6 20.7 6.5 5.2 4.7 5.0 5.9 1.8 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.6 2.4 1.4 Deaths 2 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Others who found employment2 27.8 43.6 34.1 39.0 20.5 10.2 14.3 9.2 4.5 11.1 3.5 1.8 0.8 3.3 5.0 -0.8 -0.9 6.1 5.5 4.5 -0.2 7.1 1.7 H REGISTERED VACANCIES3 12.1 14.1 16.9 19.0 20.2 17.4 20.5 21.0 20.4 19.1 17.8 23.6 20.6 19.3 23.1 18.8 19.7 22.8 24.4 18.7 14.2 22.4 22.8 For fixed term, in % 73.8 73.7 75.6 75.3 76.5 77.5 76.7 77.5 77.2 74.4 75.1 77.5 76.9 79.1 76.6 78.4 77.1 76.5 76.4 75.2 69.8 71.9 73.0 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 39.7 39.7 41.6 48.3 60.2 50.9 52.6 59.3 63.0 65.8 52.2 54.7 58.3 60.1 59.5 61.7 63.3 63.9 65.6 65.9 66.1 65.8 68.3 As % of labour force (I/A) 4.4 4.4 4.6 5.3 7.0 5.6 5.7 6.4 6.8 7.0 5.7 5.9 6.3 6.5 6.4 6.7 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.0 7.3 Sources of data: SORS, PDII, ESS. Notes: 1In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. Data for previous years dating back to January 2000 have also been calculated according to the new methodology. 2Estimated by IMAD, based on data by PDII and ESS; 3according to ESS. Wages, Competitiveness, Exchange Rate Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2008 p. A 11 2005 2006 2007 2007 2007 2008 QI QII QIII QIV 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, in SIT, since 2007 in EUR Total 277,279 290,635 1,285 1,238 1,252 1,267 1,379 1,213 1,252 1,237 1,264 1 ,254 1,263 1,279 1,259 1,304 1 ,492 1,343 1,326 1,326 Private sector (A to K) 258,714 272,709 1,217 1,168 1,178 1,191 1,328 1,137 1,184 1,164 1,192 1 ,1 79 1,180 1,211 1,181 1,238 1 ,468 1,279 1,263 1,244 Agriculture, fishing (A, B) 224,253 236,822 1,069 1,010 1,036 1,048 1,185 978 1,021 1,026 1,057 1 ,026 1,029 1,073 1,044 1,113 1,323 1,118 1,117 1,127 A Agriculture 224,225 236,681 1,069 1,010 1,036 1,049 1,184 978 1,023 1,025 1,058 1 ,027 1,029 1,072 1,045 1,110 1,323 1,120 1,120 1,129 B Fishing 218,670 236,027 1,063 970 1,032 1,030 1,202 984 919 1,070 1,011 1,015 1,015 1,078 999 1,231 1,337 1,039 1,032 1,027 Industry, construction (C to F) 243,067 256,362 1,140 1,096 1,101 1,120 1 ,241 1,059 1,110 1,081 1,114 1 ,1 09 1,106 1,145 1,109 1,168 1,372 1,184 1,189 1,163 C Mining and quarrying 344,670 360,110 1,608 1,504 1,547 1,538 1,848 1,488 1,508 1,487 1,580 1 ,572 1,518 1,549 1,547 1,628 2,139 1,777 1,605 1,642 D Manufacturing 238,985 252,162 1,124 1,086 1,086 1,105 1 ,21 7 1,046 1,099 1,069 1,094 1 ,095 1,091 1,132 1,093 1,151 1,335 1,165 1,181 1,152 E Electricity, gas & water supply 353,836 373,743 1,657 1 ,494 1,537 1,564 2,031 1,442 1,501 1,483 1,551 1 ,576 1,502 1,602 1,588 1,689 2,553 1,850 1,663 1,598 F Construction 224,794 238,698 1,061 1,017 1,036 1,054 1,129 996 1,038 1,011 1,066 1 ,031 1,050 1,071 1,039 1,091 1,217 1,080 1,092 1,081 Production services (G to I) 253,747 266,326 1,189 1,150 1,156 1,167 1,280 1,128 1,171 1,153 1,163 1 ,1 52 1,162 1,177 1,163 1,204 1,377 1,260 1,235 1,221 G Distributive trade 244,880 258,521 1,161 1,122 1,130 1,143 1,247 1,097 1,143 1,130 1,135 1 ,1 25 1,136 1,151 1,142 1,176 1,332 1,231 1,200 1,194 H Hotels & restaurants 202,895 211,873 937 893 922 927 1,004 873 906 905 930 931 920 945 916 958 1,042 1,011 993 969 I Transport, storage & communications 299,377 310,080 1,368 1,333 1,320 1,331 1,480 1,317 1,359 1,316 1,332 1,313 1,329 1,343 1,322 1,377 1,627 1,436 1,423 1,395 Business services (J to K) 325,355 340,552 1,520 1 ,437 1,472 1,466 1,698 1,412 1,450 1,452 1,504 1 ,461 1,458 1,486 1,453 1,528 1,942 1,623 1,555 1,542 J Financial intermediation 413,896 443,595 1,986 1,812 1,943 1,834 2,347 1,810 1,830 1,897 2,021 1,911 1,833 1,853 1,815 1,973 3,015 2,054 1,918 1,932 K Real estate 292,763 304,295 1,361 1,307 1,312 1,341 1,480 1,274 1,321 1,300 1,328 1 ,309 1,330 1,361 1,331 1,379 1,583 1,479 1,433 1,412 Public services (L to O) 330,580 341,999 1,485 1 ,445 1,469 1,495 1,531 1,433 1,453 1,454 1,474 1 ,478 1,509 1,485 1,490 1,500 1,563 1,531 1,515 1,570 L Public administration 333,302 343,572 1,507 1 ,446 1,482 1,538 1,562 1,442 1,445 1,452 1,488 1 ,506 1,565 1,512 1,538 1,553 1,569 1,565 1,549 1,648 M Education 340,967 357,301 1,550 1,521 1,545 1,561 1,573 1,518 1,530 1,533 1,550 1 ,550 1,571 1,556 1,556 1,560 1,585 1,575 1,563 1,636 N Health & social work 316,827 325,245 1,400 1,367 1,393 1,405 1,436 1,344 1,369 1,386 1,401 1 ,392 1,423 1,401 1,391 1,404 1 ,453 1,450 1,438 1,452 O Other social & personal services 325,159 332,137 1,440 1 ,402 1,394 1,407 1,553 1,368 1,441 1,389 1,393 1 ,399 1,399 1,415 1,407 1,421 1,733 1,504 1,466 1,463 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS, 2001=100 Foreign exchange rates Effective exchange rate1, nominal 94.0 94.1 94.9 94.4 94.8 94.9 95.4 94.5 94.5 94.7 94.8 94.9 95.0 94.8 95.0 95.3 95.4 95.4 95.5 95.4 Real (relative consumer prices) 105.0 105.7 108.1 105.7 107.9 108.7 110.1 105.3 106.1 107 108.1 108.5 108.5 108.6 109 109.6 110.3 110.3 110.4 109.9 Real (relative producer prices)2 102.5 101.6 103.7 103.5 103.3 103.5 104.7 103.5 103.5 103.2 103.3 103.4 103.2 103.2 104 104.7 104.7 104.8 105 104.8 SIT/US$ 192.7 191.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SIT/EUR 239.6 239.6 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - US$/EUR 1.2448 1.2557 1.3706 1 .31 05 1.3482 1.3745 1 .4494 1.3074 1.3242 1.3516 1.3511 1 .341 9 1.3716 1.3622 1.3896 1.4227 1.4684 1.457 1.4718 1.475 Sources of data: SORS, AP, BS, OECD Main Economic Indicators, calculations IMAD. Notes: Data on the monthly gross wage per employee for 2004 and beyond calculated according to the new methodology were published in September 2005. 1Change of methodology: the calculation of domestic currency's effective exchange rate includes the currencies/prices of Slovenia's 17 trading partners (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Italy, France, Netherlands, Spain, Denmark, United Kingdom, Sweden, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, USA, Switzerland, Japan); weights are the shares of individual trading partners in Slovenian exports and imports of goods within manufacturing (5-8 SITC) in 2001-2003; exports are double weighted; a rise in the index value indicates an appreciation of domestic currency and vice versa. 2Producer prices in manufacturing activities. Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD Public Finance No. 4/2008 p. A 12 Current prices, EURO thousand 2004 2005 2006 2007 2007 2007 2008 QI QII QIII QV 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 CONSOLIDATED GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES (GFS-IMF methodology) TOTAL REVENUES 11,196,191 11,976,085 12,958,693 14,009,557 3,065,198 3,456,275 3,430,635 4,057,448 1,183,363 1,223,146 1,024,126 1,323,755 1,326,312 1,407,381 1,119,952 Current revenues 10,887,384 11,517,220 12,395,302 13,465,585 2,955,042 3,374,915 3,332,116 3,803,511 1,159,939 1,168,911 1,003,266 1,259,399 1,236,253 1,307,860 1,104,564 Tax revenues 10,210,728 10,883,952 11,761,990 12,757,641 2,828,698 3,199,681 3,123,561 3,605,701 1,089,818 1,099,501 934,243 1,194,103 1,168,132 1,243,465 1,057,437 Taxes on income and profit 2,115,163 2,241,947 2,735,294 2,917,670 587,733 914,251 646,272 769,413 168,660 251,354 226,259 233,374 235,747 300,293 222,969 Social security contributions 3,753,129 3,987,693 4,231,224 4,597,973 1,083,374 1,123,694 1,139,120 1,251,786 379,179 377,876 382,065 385,102 397,257 469,427 394,658 Taxes on payroll and workforce 491,053 526,193 472,934 418,141 96,050 99,669 101,537 120,885 34,122 33,563 33,851 34,118 36,515 50,251 19,987 Taxes on property 164,886 170,396 189,124 206,292 22,183 57,958 67,292 58,858 20,758 31,377 15,157 16,339 29,318 13,201 8,685 Domestic taxes on goods and services 3,574,570 3,914,698 4,077,290 4,498,271 1,017,613 973,023 1,135,454 1,372,180 475,447 395,375 264,633 514,537 459,906 397,737 404,585 Taxes on international trade & transactions 80,698 39,060 50,681 117,079 21,478 30,663 33,213 31,725 11,547 9,640 12,026 10,423 9,109 12,193 6,345 Other taxes 31,229 3,965 5,442 2,214 266 422 673 853 105 316 252 211 279 363 208 Non-tax revenues 676,656 633,268 633,312 707,944 126,345 175,234 208,554 197,811 70,121 69,410 69,023 65,296 68,121 64,394 47,126 Capital revenues 86,593 113,424 166,795 132,958 19,670 15,184 39,564 58,539 13,524 17,110 8,930 14,557 15,694 28,288 11,057 Grants 7,831 9,067 5,370 11,631 2,111 2,831 1,975 4,714 677 -93 1,391 1,361 820 2,533 737 Transferred revenues 31,449 33,967 42,811 51,852 2,154 3,765 1,926 44,007 1,168 624 134 882 42,976 149 1,376 Receipts from the EU budget 182,933 302,407 348,416 347,531 86,221 59,580 55,054 146,677 8,055 36,595 10,404 47,556 30,570 68,551 2,217 CONSOLIDATED GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE (GFS-IMF methodology) TOTAL EXPENDITURE 11,552,442 12,275,729 13,208,676 13,914,007 3,203,151 3,394,883 3,241,483 4,074,491 1,095,382 1,090,740 1,055,360 1,140,532 1,252,869 1,681,090 1,014,525 Current expenditure 5,149,861 5,353,940 5,688,953 5,946,520 1,482,002 1,448,488 1,362,191 1,653,839 450,802 463,506 447,883 483,812 500,729 669,298 449,762 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditure 2,922,504 3,016,282 3,180,304 3,276,764 785,846 851,676 814,380 824,862 271,147 273,675 269,558 266,157 273,515 285,190 265,659 Expenditure on goods and services 1,793,780 1,910,960 2,073,233 2,208,875 490,335 482,590 517,992 717,957 170,183 183,399 164,410 187,389 212,070 318,498 156,795 Interest payments 383,629 372,142 376,392 357,001 197,549 105,283 17,472 36,696 6,768 3,277 7,428 26,571 4,888 5,238 22,868 Reserves 49,948 54,556 59,025 103,881 8,272 8,939 12,347 74,323 2,705 3,155 6,487 3,695 10,256 60,372 4,440 Current transfers 5,215,779 5,598,570 5,925,823 6,143,458 1,457,330 1,663,926 1,456,334 1,565,868 525,528 467,384 463,422 473,808 548,303 543,758 460,687 Subsidies 323,697 381,245 402,921 423,111 104,410 137,922 88,287 92,492 57,273 12,987 18,027 18,014 25,554 48,924 5,008 Current transfers to individuals and households 4,395,830 4,628,595 4,871,492 5,089,664 1,219,039 1,359,165 1,211,111 1,300,348 406,396 403,614 401,101 404,995 470,513 424,840 418,051 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 474,357 563,051 624,054 598,704 130,976 156,661 145,612 165,456 57,851 47,441 40,321 49,708 50,018 65,730 35,875 Current transfers abroad 21,894 25,679 27,357 31,979 2,905 10,178 11,324 7,572 4,008 3,342 3,974 1,090 2,217 4,264 1,754 Capital expenditure 631,383 654,246 901,419 1,127,687 133,374 162,915 266,879 564,519 72,229 104,199 90,451 117,277 121,011 326,232 53,635 Capital transfers 385,845 383,385 404,588 340,438 30,491 59,001 70,469 180,477 23,086 23,276 24,107 35,575 51,513 93,389 9,858 Payments to the EU budget 169,575 285,589 287,892 355,904 99,954 60,553 85,610 109,787 23,737 32,376 29,497 30,061 31,313 48,414 40,582 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -356,252 -299,644 -249,983 95,549 - - - - - - - - - - - Source of data: MF Bulletin. Note: in line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the state are not consolidated. Data prior to 2007 are recalculated on the basis of the irrevocable SIT/EUR exchange rate = 239.64. Main Indicators Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2008 p. A 13 Real growth rates, in %* 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1010 Spring Forecast 2008 GDP 2.8 4.4 4.1 5.7 6.1 4.4 4.1 4.4 GDP in EUR million (current prices and current exchange rate) 25,344 26,764 28,244 30,453 - - - - GDP in EUR million (current prices and fixed 2007 exchange rate EUR=239,64) 24,716 26,677 28,243 30,448 33,542 36,308 39,234 42,270 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices and current exchange rate) 12,695 13,400 14,116 15,167 16,615 17,939 19,350 20,815 GDP per capita (PPS)1 17,000 18,400 19,500 20,700 - - - - GDP per capita (PPS EU27=100)1 83 85 87 88 - - - - Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 6.7 6.3 6.5 6.0 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.7 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 3.2 4.1 4.0 4.5 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.8 Inflation2, annual average 5.6 3.6 2.5 2.5 3.6 5.2 3.2 2.9 INTERNATIONAL TRADE - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS Exports of goods and services3 3.1 12.5 10.1 12.3 13.0 9.7 9.4 9.7 Exports of goods 4.4 12.8 10.3 13.4 12.5 9.4 9.3 9.5 Exports of services -2.5 11.0 9.5 7.3 15.5 10.9 10.0 10.5 Imports of goods and services3 6.7 13.3 6.7 12.2 14.1 8.5 7.5 8.6 Imports of goods 7.3 14.6 6.8 12.7 13.8 8.3 7.2 8.3 Imports of services 2.9 5.6 5.6 8.9 16.6 9.8 9.7 10.6 Current account balance, in EUR million -196 -720 -561 -857 -1,641 -1,686 -1,103 -899 Average exchange rate, SIT/EUR 233.70 238.86 239.64 239.60 - - - - Ratio of USD to EUR 1.128 1.242 1.244 1.254 1.371 1.526 1.537 1.537 Foreign exchange reserves, in EUR million 7,703 7,484 8,833 8,005 - - - - - in which: BS foreign exchange reserves, in EUR million 6,675 6,368 6,771 5,305 6444 6885 - - Gross external debt, in EUR million 13,225 15,343 20,508 24,034 34,358 35,6766 - - DOMESTIC DEMAND - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS (share in GDP in %) Private consumption 55.3 54.3 54.0 53.4 52.3 52.7 52.2 51.8 Government consumption 19.4 19.2 19.4 19.2 18.2 18.6 18.5 18.6 Gross fixed capital formation 24.1 25.4 25.5 26.1 28.7 28.9 28.1 28.1 Sources of data: SORS, BS, MF, calculations and forecasts by IMAD - Spring Forecast 2008. Notes: *if not stated otherwise; 1Eurostat; 2the consumer price index; 3balance of payments statistics (exports F.O.B., imports F.O.B.), changes in exchange rates and prices in foreign markets are eliminated by calculating real rates; 4From 1 January 2007 foreign exchange reserves of the Bank of Slovenia include foreign cash in convertible currencies, deposits abroad, and first class securities of issuers from outside the EMU in foreign currency. The drop in data values is the result of Slovenia's entry to the EMU; 5end March 2008; 6end February 2008. International Comparisons / I Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2008 p. A 14 Real GDP growth GDP per capita in PPS1 EU27=100 Inflation2 (annual average) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2004 2005 2006 2007 Slovenia 4.4 4.1 5.7 6.1 82.3 85.3 86.8 87.8 3.7 2.5 2.5 3.8 EU27 2.5 1.9 3.1 2.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.3 EU25 2.5 1.9 3.0 2.8 104.4 104.2 104.1 103.9 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 EMU 2.1 1.6 2.7 2.6 113.7 113.1 112.7 112.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.1 Belgium 3.0 1.7 2.8 2.8 112.1 110.9 110.9 110.4 1.9 2.5 2.3 1.8 Bulgaria 6.6 6.2 6.3 6.2 123.3 121.0 121.1 119.8 6.1 6.0 7.4 7.6 Czech Republic 4.5 6.4 6.4 6.5 32.6 33.8 35.3 36.7 2.6 1.6 2.1 3.0 Denmark 2.3 2.5 3.9 1.8 73.6 75.3 76.6 78.6 0.9 1.7 1.9 1.7 Germany 1.1 0.8 2.9 2.5 124.5 125.9 126.6 125.7 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.3 Estonia 8.3 10.2 11.2 7.1 116.9 116.6 115.1 114.1 3.0 4.1 4.4 6.7 Ireland 4.4 6.0 5.7 5.3 54.5 56.9 62.9 68.4 2.3 2.2 2.7 2.9 Greece 4.6 3.8 4.2 4.0 140.8 141.8 143.7 145.4 3.0 3.5 3.3 3.0 Spain 3.3 3.6 3.9 3.8 92.2 93.9 96.1 97.3 3.1 3.4 3.6 2.8 France 2.5 1.7 2.0 1.9 101.2 101.2 102.9 104.9 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.6 Italy 1.5 0.6 1.8 1.5 112.1 110.3 111.9 110.9 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.0 Cyprus 4.2 3.9 4.0 4.4 111.0 106.9 105.1 103.3 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.2 Latvia 8.7 10.6 12.2 10.3 89.2 90.5 92.6 91.9 6.2 6.9 6.6 10.1 Lithuania 7.3 7.9 7.7 8.8 43.4 45.8 49.9 53.7 1.2 2.7 3.8 5.8 Luxembourg 4.9 5.0 6.1 5.1 49.1 50.5 53.2 56.1 3.2 3.8 3.0 2.7 Hungary 4.8 4.1 3.9 1.3 247.3 253.2 264.2 279.1 6.8 3.5 4.0 7.9 Malta 0.2 3.4 3.4 3.8 63.4 63.3 64.2 64.8 2.7 2.5 2.6 0.7 Netherlands 2.2 1.5 3.0 3.5 78.6 76.8 77.3 76.9 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.6 Austria 2.3 2.0 3.3 3.4 129.7 129.5 131.1 130.5 2.0 2.1 1.7 2.2 Poland 5.3 3.6 6.2 6.5 128.8 128.8 128.7 127.5 3.6 2.2 1.3 2.6 Portugal 1.5 0.9 1.3 1.9 49.0 50.7 51.2 52.4 2.5 2.1 3.0 2.4 Romania 8.5 4.2 7.9 6.0 76.9 74.7 75.4 74.5 11.9 9.1 6.6 4.9 Slovakia 5.2 6.6 8.5 10.4 31.4 34.1 35.4 38.9 7.5 2.8 4.3 1.9 Finland 3.7 2.8 4.9 4.4 55.6 57.2 60.5 63.7 0.1 0.8 1.3 1.6 Sweden 4.1 3.3 4.1 2.6 113.3 116.5 115.1 116.9 1.0 0.8 1.5 1.7 United Kingdom 3.3 1.8 2.9 3.0 123.0 125.0 123.7 124.6 1.3 2.1 2.3 2.3 USA 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.2 119.8 122.0 119.2 117.9 2.7 3.4 3.2 2.9 Sources of data: SORS; Eurostat. Notes: 1PPS - Purchasing Power Standard. 2 Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices for EU countries and Consumer Price Index for the USA. International Comparisons / II Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 4/2008 p. A 15 Survey Unemployment Rate Current account balance1, % GDP General Government Balance, % GDP General Government Gross Debt, % GDP 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2004 2005 2006 2007 2004 2005 2006 2007 Slovenia 6.3 6.5 6.0 4.8 -0.8 -2.7 -2.0 -2.8 -2.3 -1.5 -1.2 -0.1 27.6 27.5 27.2 24.1 EU27 9.0 8.9 8.1 7.1 N/A 0.1 -0.3 -0.8 -2.8 -2.5 -1.4 -0.9 62.1 62.6 61.3 58.7 EU25 9.0 8.9 8.2 7.2 0.0 0.2 -0.2 -0.7 -2.9 -2.5 -1.4 -0.9 62.4 63.0 61.8 59.3 EMU 8.8 8.9 8.3 7.4 0.4 0.8 0.1 -0.2 -2.9 -2.5 -1.3 -0.6 69.7 70.3 68.6 66.6 Belgium 8.4 8.4 8.2 7.5 2.0 3.5 2.6 2.7 0.0 -2.3 0.3 -0.2 94.2 92.1 88.2 84.9 Bulgaria 12.0 10.1 9.0 6.9 -8.5 -6.6 -12.0 -15.7 1.4 1.8 3.0 3.4 37.9 29.2 22.7 18.2 Czech Republic 8.3 7.9 7.1 5.3 -6.2 -5.4 -1.8 -3.3 -3.0 -3.6 -2.7 -1.6 30.4 29.7 29.4 28.7 Denmark 5.5 4.8 3.9 3.8 3.4 3.0 4.4 2.6 1.9 5.0 4.8 4.4 43.8 36.4 30.4 26.0 Germany 9.7 10.7 9.8 8.4 1.9 4.3 4.6 5.0 -3.8 -3.4 -1.6 0.0 65.6 67.8 67.6 65.0 Estonia 9.7 7.9 5.9 4.7 -11.3 -12.3 -10.0 -15.5 1.6 1.8 3.4 2.8 5.1 4.5 4.2 3.4 Ireland 4.5 4.3 4.4 4.6 0.0 -0.6 -3.5 -4.2 1.4 1.6 3.0 0.3 29.5 27.4 25.1 25.4 Greece 10.5 9.8 8.9 8.3 -6.4 -5.6 -7.1 N/A -7.4 -5.1 -2.6 -2.8 98.6 98.0 95.3 94.5 Spain 10.6 9.2 8.5 8.3 -3.5 -5.3 -7.4 -8.6 -0.3 1.0 1.8 2.2 46.2 43.0 39.7 36.2 France 9.3 9.2 9.2 8.3 0.4 0.5 -0.9 -1.3 -3.6 -2.9 -2.4 -2.7 64.9 66.4 63.6 64.2 Italy 8.0 7.7 6.8 6.1 -1.3 -0.9 -1.6 -2.6 -3.5 -4.2 -3.4 -1.9 103.8 105.8 106.5 104.0 Cyprus 4.6 5.2 4.6 3.9 -2.3 -5.0 -5.6 -5.9 -4.1 -2.4 -1.2 3.3 70.2 69.1 64.8 59.8 Latvia 10.4 8.9 6.8 6.0 -8.2 -12.9 -12.5 -22.3 -1.0 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 1 4.9 12.4 10.7 9.7 Lithuania 11.4 8.3 5.6 4.3 -6.8 -7.7 -7.2 -10.8 -1.5 -0.5 -0.5 -1.2 19.4 18.6 18.2 17.3 Luxembourg 5.1 4.5 4.7 4.7 8.0 11.6 10.9 10.3 -1.2 -0.1 1.3 2.9 6.3 6.1 6.6 6.8 Hungary 6.1 7.2 7.5 7.4 -7.9 -8.4 -6.8 -6.6 -6.5 -7.8 -9.2 -5.5 59.4 61.6 65.6 66.0 Malta 7.4 7.3 7.3 6.4 -3.1 -6.0 -8.7 -6.7 -4.6 -3.0 -2.6 -1.8 72.6 70.4 64.2 62.6 Netherlands 4.6 4.7 3.9 3.2 5.5 7.5 7.2 8.3 -1.7 -0.3 0.5 0.4 52.4 52.3 47.9 45.4 Austria 4.8 5.2 4.7 4.4 -0.2 0.5 1.1 2.8 -3.7 -1.5 -1.5 -0.5 63.8 63.5 61.8 59.1 Poland 19.0 17.7 13.8 9.6 -2.1 -4.2 -1.6 -3.2 -5.7 -4.3 -3.8 -2.0 45.7 47.1 47.6 45.2 Portugal 6.7 7.6 7.7 8.0 -6.1 -7.7 -9.7 -9.4 -3.4 -6.1 -3.9 -2.6 58.3 63.6 64.7 63.6 Romania 8.1 7.2 7.3 6.4 -5.5 -8.4 -8.6 -10.4 -1.2 -1.2 -2.2 -2.5 18.8 15.8 12.4 13.0 Slovakia 18.2 16.3 13.4 11.1 -0.8 -3.4 -8.4 -8.2 -2.4 -2.8 -3.6 -2.2 41.4 34.2 30.4 29.4 Finland 8.8 8.4 7.7 6.9 6.4 7.7 4.9 5.2 2.4 2.9 4.1 5.3 44.1 41.3 39.2 35.4 Sweden 6.3 7.4 7.0 6.1 7.2 6.7 6.9 7.2 0.8 2.2 2.3 3.5 51.2 50.9 45.9 40.6 United Kingdom 4.7 4.8 5.4 5.3 -1.3 -1.6 -2.5 -3.2 -3.4 -3.4 -2.6 -2.9 40.4 42.1 43.1 43.8 USA 5.5 5.1 4.6 4.6 -4.8 -5.5 -6.1 -6.1 -4.4 N/A N/A N/A 63.4 N/A N/A N/A Sources of data: SORS; Eurostat. Notes: 1EU25 and euro area aggregates are adjusted for reporting errors concerning intra-EU trade; N/A - data not available. Graphs Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No.4/2008 p. A 16 INDUSTRY i n d ices : average 2000=100 trend indices by the TRAMO-SEATS method ■ ORIGINAL INDICES ■ TREND INDICES FREIGHT TRANSPORT BY ROAD AND RAIL _(mio tonne km)_ 7 V —- I f\ / \ ■ RAIL TRANSPORT ---------ROADTRANSPORT O 0 a a a - u a a _ O a GOODS TRADE FOB, EXCL. 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I i f/ KS. / ' js."'1J 1 1 v uyrrï^ N, X /•«"* \ i OVERNIGHT STAYS TOTAL indices: average 1992=100; trend indices by the TRAMO-SEATS method 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 ■ ORIGINAL INDICES TREND INDICES I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT 110 108 106 104 102 100 98 96 94 --- EMPLOYMENT, indices 2000=100 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (right axis) -i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—r- .q<-3