.^'IMAD O fü Q) £ u E o > O Ü) o fN to u| o Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3826 No. 7-8 / Vol. XVI / 2010 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Director: Boštjan Vasle, MSc Editor in Chief: Jure Brložnik, MA Slovenian Economic Mirror was prepared by: Matevž Hribernik, (International environment); Barbara Ferk, MSc, Janez Kušar, Ivo Lavrač, PhD, Jože Markič, PhD, Tina Nenadič, MSc, Jure Povšnar, Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič (Economic developments in Slovenia); Tomaž Kraigher, Ana T. Selan, MSc (Labour market); Slavica Jurančič, Miha Trošt (Prices); Jože Markič, PhD (Balance of payments); Marjan Hafner (Financial markets); Jasna Kondža, Maja Kozar (Public finance) Editorial Board: Lidija Apohal Vučkovič, Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Lejla Fajič, Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, Boštjan Vasle, MSc Translator: Marija Kavčič Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Bibijana Cirman Naglič Print: Circulation: 90 copies © The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the spotlight................................................................................................................................................................3 Current economic trends..............................................................................................................................................5 International environment...............................................................................................................................................7 Economic activity in Slovenia..........................................................................................................................................8 Labour market..................................................................................................................................................................14 Prices..................................................................................................................................................................................17 Balance of payments.......................................................................................................................................................18 Financial markets.............................................................................................................................................................20 Public finance....................................................................................................................................................................23 Statistical appendix.....................................................................................................................................................27 Boxes Box 1: Economic growth in the second quarter of 2010...........................................................................................10 Box 2: Real estate market in Slovenia - second quarter of 2010.............................................................................12 On January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev.2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia, the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, which includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses, came into force on the mentioned date. In the Slovenian Economic Mirror, all analyses are based on the SKD 2008, except when the previous SKD 2002 classification is explicitly referred to. More general information about the introduction of the new classification is available on the SORS website http://www.stat.si/eng/ skd nace 2008.asp. All seasonally adjusted data in the Economic Mirror are calculations by IMAD. In the spotlight In the second quarter, economic growth in the euro area exceeded projections, but judging from the movement of sentiment indicators, this growth is not set to continue in the second half of the year. Real GDP in the euro area increased by 1.0% in the second quarter (seasonally adjusted) and was up 1.9% y-o-y. Growth was higher than expected particularly in Germany (2.2% q-o-q), while the recovery in countries which the sovereign debt crisis hit hardest was slower, as expected. A further tightening of financial conditions in the second quarter, winding down of the stimulus and the announced fiscal austerity measures have contributed to a decline in the values of indicators of expectations in recent months, which suggest that this growth is not set to continue in the second half of the year. Slovenia's real GDP was up 2.2% y-o-y in the second quarter due to stronger export demand and the contribution of change in inventories, and was, for the first time since the onset of the crisis, also noticeably higher than in the previous quarter (1.1%, seasonally adjusted). Reflecting a faster-than-expected economic recovery in Slovenia's main trading partners and a consequent boost in export demand, total exports were up 11.4% and imports 10.2% y-o-y. Domestic demand, on the other hand, remained subdued, and its modest y-o-y growth is attributable to changes in inventories (2.8 p.p.). Private consumption and gross fixed capital formation dropped y-o-y, while government consumption enjoyed modest growth. The y-o-y decline in gross fixed capital formation otherwise slowed further, reflecting the gap between the movements of construction investments, which remained much lower y-o-y, and investments in machinery and equipment, which recorded y-o-y growth. That export demand and domestic demand continue to recover at different speeds is also reflected in results by individual activities. The greatest value added growth was thus recorded in manufacturing industries and in transport, storage and communications, i.e. activities related to the uptick in export demand, while value added continued to plummet in construction, which fell to the lowest level since the beginning of the crisis. Value added was also down y-o-y in financial intermediation. In other market services, it was somewhat higher than a year before. In public services, growth in value added continued and even accelerated. The number of employed persons saw relatively small changes from February to June, while the number of registered unemployed increased once again in August after a period of stagnation, climbing to 99,032 by the end of the month. The number of employed persons has stagnated since January this year, seasonally adjusted, while its decline rates have been slowing steadily y-o-y given last year's significant job losses and this year's stagnation. In the first half of the year as a whole, employment was nevertheless still 3.2% lower than in the same period of last year. The number of registered unemployed increased further in July and particularly in August, after 1.9% growth in the second quarter (seasonally adjusted). Y-o-y growth in the average gross wage strengthened in June, averaging 4.3% in the second quarter. In June, the average gross wage increased by 1.1% in nominal terms, as a result of a higher average wage in the private sector, while in the public sector, the average wage dropped slightly. In the second quarter as a whole, the average gross wage in the private sector recorded 5.8% y-o-y growth, largely owing to the surge in March due to the substantial rise in the minimum wage and the still-ongoing structural effect. The average wage in the public sector declined by 0.3%, after growing strongly in 2009 and 2008. Consumer prices rose by 0.3% in August and y-o-y inflation was at 2.3%. In the first eight months of this year, price rises largely reflected higher energy prices (a contribution of 1.4 p.p.) and the increase in excise duties (0.8 p.p.) In the euro area as a whole, y-o-y inflation was 1.6% in August. In the first seven months of this year, the net flow of loans was higher than in the same period of 2009 largely on account of housing borrowing by households. Domestic banks recorded net lending of EUR 866.5 m in the first seven months, nearly one fifth more than in the same period of last year. The bulk of this year's net flows was attributable to household borrowing, the government net repaid its loans and total net corporate and NFI borrowing (at home and abroad) was even lower than in the same period of 2009. Looking at the sources of finance, banks registered net inflows from abroad in June for the second consecutive month, while government and household deposits, on the other side, posted a net outflow in July. In the first half of 2010, consolidated general government revenue totalled EUR 6.8 bn and expenditure EUR 8.2 bn, with the deficit climbing to EUR 1.4 bn. Revenue was down 0.6% y-o-y (after last year's 7.4% drop), expenditure posted 2.7% y-o-y growth (last year 10.6%). In terms of economic structure of expenditure, all categories of general government expenditure were higher y-o-y, particularly expenditure on interest payments, which was up by nearly one third, while transfers to individuals and households rose by 4.9%. The state budget realised a net surplus of EUR 37.8 m against the EU budget in the first seven months of this year, with absorption representing 27.7% of what was planned for2010. ■ö £ Q) E o £ O u Q) £ Q) 3 U International environment In the second quarter of this year, Slovenia's key trading partners saw stronger recovery than what was expected in the spring. According to the Eurostat flash estimate, GDP in the euro area increased (1.0%) in the second quarter for the fourth time in a row, being 1.9% higher y-o-y. The recovery is still mainly driven by foreign demand, which was additionally boosted by the depreciation of the euro in the second quarter. The quarterly increase in GDP in the second quarter exceeded the EC spring forecasts in all Slovenia's main trading partners, particularly in Germany, which enjoyed the highest quarterly GDP growth since the unification (2.2%; 3.7% y-o-y). However, in EU countries that the sovereign debt crisis hit hardest, economic growth was relatively lower, as expected. These countries' poor economic situation is also reflected on financial markets, given that the yield to maturity of their 10-year government bonds also remained high in August, while the yield of German bonds is declining. In the second quarter of the year, the y-o-y economic growth in the euro area mainly came from exports (4.3 p.p.) and inventories (1.5 p.p.), as well as private and government consumption (a combined total of 0.6 p.p.), with the contribution of gross fixed capital formation remaining negative (-0.2 p.p.). In the second quarter, GDP also edged up slightly in the US (0.4%), albeit less than expected, while economic growth in main developing countries in Asia remained high, particularly in China (10.3% y-o-y). Figure 1: Economic growth in Slovenia's main trading partners ■ Q2 10 »01 10 « 0409 Q3 09 —Q2 10 forecast 2,5 EMU Germany France Italy Austria US Source: Eurostat, EC Spring Forecasts (May 2010). The movement of sentiment indicators suggests slower recovery in the second half of this year. The labour market situation remains tight, but unemployment in the euro area is no longer growing and was 10.0% in July for the fifth successive month. The currently favourable conditions are corroborated by current situation estimates according to most of the main sentiment indicators (ESI, BCI, Ifo, Zew, PMI), but the indicators of expectations suggest that the recovery will slow down in the coming months. The PMI shows that, similar to that the euro area, growth will also ease in the US and China in the second half of the year. Figure 2: Sentiment indicators for the euro area -BCI -situation -----BCI -exp. production -ZEW -situation -----ZEW -expectations 60 S z Source: ECFIN, ZEW. The situation on financial markets continued to deteriorate in the second quarter of the year. Lending conditions in the euro tightened further in the second quarter, according to the ECB survey. The number of banks that tightened their lending standards was 11% higher than the number of those reporting an easing (in the first quarter, only 3% higher). The survey anticipates that banks will tighten their lending standards for corporate loans in the third quarter as well, despite the expected rise in corporate loan demand. The tightening in the second quarter was mainly related to the deterioration in bank balance Figure 3: ECB survey on lending conditions in the euro area ^^ Lend. conditions for enterprises In the past 3 months -Lend. conditions for enterprises In the next 3 months -Corporate loan demand in the next 3 months (right axis) I-^—1—^—^-. . , .—:—^^—^- 70 c ro 60 50 f^ „o 40 30 20 10 0 -10 c dJ -20 :f= -30 id ■ cp cu CU "D -Q C E a a Source: ECB. !t= sheets, particularly in terms of liquidity and access to financial resources, while businesses have, for quite some time now, been mainly raising loans to restructure debts. Banks have also reported a further tightening of lending standards for households, similar to businesses. Stress test results released at the end of July managed to reduce distrust between financial entities on financial markets, but insufficiently for lending conditions to improve visibly in the months to come, judging by the ECB survey. Interbank interest rates increased slightly once again in August. The value of the 3-month EURIBOR has risen by 25 basis points since April this year, when it was lowest, to an average of 0.896% in August. The value of the 3-month USD LIBOR increased by 14 basis points in August, averaging 0.3747%. Key interest rates of the main central banks remain unchanged at record lows (ECB: 1.0%, Fed: 0.0%, BoE: 0.5%). After falling for two months, the euro appreciated slightly against the dollar in August. The average exchange rate of the dollar against the euro strengthened by 1.0% (to USD 1.2894 to EUR 1) in August, being still 11.8% lower than in December 2009. The British pound sterling also gained value against the euro in August (+1.4%, to GPB 0.8236 to EUR 1), as did the Japanese yen (+1.5%, to JPY 110.04 to EUR 1) and Swiss franc (+0.4%, to CHF 1.3413 to EUR 1). The price of Brent crude increased somewhat in August, while July also recorded higher prices of non-energy commodities. The average monthly price of Brent crude oil rose by 1.9% to USD 77.04 a barrel in August (in EUR, by 1.7%, to EUR 59.91 a barrel). Expressed in USD, the average monthly oil price increased by 6.2% y-o-y (3.5% since December 2009), in EUR, by 17.2% (16.0% since December 2009). Dollar prices of non-energy commodities rose by 3.3% in June, being up 22% y-o-y in the first seven months of 2010. Most of the y-o-y increase is attributable to metal prices, which surged by 47.9%, driven largely by higher demand in developing countries that boast much faster economic growth than the developed world. Prices of food were up 5.6% y-o-y in the same period, with most of the increase recorded in July. Economic activity in Slovenia After increasing again in June, merchandise trade growth strengthened significantly also in the second quarter as a whole. In June, merchandise exports recorded similar nominal growth as in May, 3.0%, according to seasonally adjusted data, while in the second quarter as a whole, exports increased by 6.2%. Exports also increased y-o-y (16.6%), mainly due to a further strengthening of exports to EU countries (20.5%). Exports to non-EU Member States were also up y-o-y (7.5%), for the first time since the last quarter of 2008. A breakdown of exports by industries shows that according to the available data for the first five months of 2010, the greatest contribution to the y-o-y increase stems from higher exports of the manufacture of motor vehicles and electrical appliances, with signs of recovery also recorded for exports of the manufacture of metals, and chemicals and chemical products. Nominal merchandise imports declined in June (-1.7%, seasonally adjusted) after growing in the previous four months, but were up 7.2% in the second quarter as a whole. Imports were also higher y-o-y (19.2%), similar to exports. Amid a higher level of value added in manufacturing and higher prices of energy and other primary commodities, it was imports of intermediate goods that strengthened most notably y-o-y in the second quarter, by our estimate. Imports of investment goods also increased, due to growing investment in machinery and equipment. Despite its strong y-o-y growth in the second quarter, merchandise trade remains at the level of the last quarter of 2006. Figure 4: IMF commodity price index 200 180 160 140 ■5 120 100 - Commodity price index - Commodity food price index Commodity metals price index Figure 5: Merchandise trade 20 Source: IMF. a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. The second quarter of 2010 saw a y-o-y increase in trade in services for the first time in five quarters. Exports of services (3.5%) were higher y-o-y for the first time since the last quarter of 2008. The main contributions to growth came from exports of road transport services and exports of merchanting and other trade-related services. On the import side, y-o-y growth (6.7%) was mainly underpinned by imports of licences, patents and copyrights, as well as imports of maritime transport and travel services. Imports of construction services such as construction and installation works carried out by foreigners are still on the decline. Figure 6: Trade in services -Exports of services -Imports of services 30 25 20 15 10 5 !E ^ 0 ^^ -5 -10 -15 -20 I/ L...J..........J............ r ........................... / ..........j..................... \jf - . \ .\ / \ / • a a a a Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Table 1: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia in % 2009 VI 10/ V 10 VI 10/ VI 09 I-VI 10/ I-VI 09 Exports1 -18.2 7.0 15.6 9.7 -goods -19.2 7.0 17.7 11.8 -services -14.3 7.4 7.1 1.5 Imports1 -23.0 -1.3 16.7 11.5 -goods -25.9 -2.7 18.9 12.7 -services -3.9 7.9 5.0 4.6 Industrial production -16.9 0.62 10.33 5.03 -manufacturing -18.1 1.22 11.33 5.83 Construction -value of construction put in place -21.0 -1.52 -16.93 -17.63 Distributive trade - total turnover in retail trade -12.8 5.12 7.53 1.53 Hotels and restaurants - turnover in hotels and restaurants -11.8 -0.82 0.53 -1.03 Sources: BS, SORS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 'balance of payments s 2seasonally adjusted, 3working-day adjusted data. Growing further in June, production volume in manufacturing recorded significantly stronger growth in the second quarter as a whole (4.2%, seasonally adjusted). In the second quarter, production was up 11.5% y-o-y (working-day adjusted), which was also attributable to low activity in the same period of last year. Production of more export-oriented industries increased by 16.1%. In industries that are primarily oriented to the domestic market, production remained at a similar level as in the same period last year. The difference between export-oriented industries and those primarily focused on the domestic market is also indicated by data on turnover (y-o-y growth in the former, 16.1%; in the latter, 2.3%) and new orders (in the former, 26.8%; in the latter, 11.5%). The uptick in demand translated into higher capacity utilisation in the second quarter (an increase to 77.9%), though capacity utilisation was still below the pre-crisis level, which was at a record high. Figure 7: Volume of industrial production in manufacturing o o Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 8: Estimate of new orders (business trends) and capacity utilisation -New orders (left axis) Capacity utilisation (right axis) 95 90 85 80 75 TO a ID 70 65 60 a Source: SORS. Box 1: Economic growth in the second quarter of 2010 With higher export demand and a positive contribution of change in inventories, economic activity in Slovenia increased more notably in the second quarter of this year for the first time since the onset of the crisis, while the situation in the domestic environment remains less favourable. Slovenia's real GDP was up 1.1% in the second quarter compared with the first (seasonally adjusted), being also higher y-o-y (2.2%) for the first time since the beginning of the crisis, partly due to last year's low base. With economic growth strengthening further in Slovenia's main trading partners in the EU and exceeding significantly the spring expectations for the second quarter (as reflected in higher export demand for Slovenian goods and services), exports were up 11.4% and imports 10.2% y-o-y, with the contribution of international trade totalling 0.9 p.p. Incentives from the domestic environment, on the other hand, remain smaller, even though domestic consumption also recorded modest growth in the second quarter, but only due to a higher positive contribution of the change in inventories (2.8 p.p.). Other main domestic consumption aggregates remained lower y-o-y (private consumption and gross fixed capital formation) or saw modest growth (government consumption: 0.7%). Against the background of tough labour market conditions, household consumption was 0.3% lower y-o-y for the third quarter in a row. The y-o-y decline in gross fixed capital formation (-5.7%) eased once again amid the discrepancy between the movements of construction investments (-15.8%) and investments in machinery and equipment (12.2%). The positive signs in business investment movements have been expected, given the uptick in export demand, which is also reflected in a gradual capacity utilisation increase. That export demand and domestic demand continue to recover at different speeds is also reflected in results by individual activities. The highest increase in value added was thus recorded by manufacturing industries (13.9%), which are the most export-oriented sector of Slovenia's economy, as well as by transport, storage and communications (7.5%), where merchandise transport activities strengthened most notably, by our estimate. Value added continued to decline significantly in construction (-14.1%), hitting a new low since the beginning of the crisis. It also dropped y-o-y in financial intermediation, while in other market-oriented services it was somewhat above what was recorded a year before -according to data on turnover, value added chiefly improved in sectors that are not strongly tied to construction (retail sale of motor vehicles, miscellaneous business services related to business operations). Y-o-y growth in public services continued, being even slightly faster. Figure 9: Base index of GDP - seasonally adjusted ---------Germany ---------Germany -------Italy Figure 10: Structure of value added growth 100 99 Ei 98 Jo 97 O e^Q 96 95 94 Ü3 93 92 91 90 ---Austria Slovenia 2 ä 0 :!3 -4 ■ Public services (L -P) SS Construction (F) ■ Manufacturing (D) I Market services (G - K) I Other (A,B,C,E) O O O O O O O Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. a a Source: SORS. Note: see the list of acronyms. The drop in manufacturing employment is diminishing this year, but in the second quarter, the number of employed persons was still 5.9% lower than in the same period last year. Amid a modest recovery of domestic demand, the y-o-y decline in employment remained greatest in industries that are mainly oriented to the domestic market. More than half of the total decline of 12,000 came from industries oriented to the domestic market, particularly the manufacture of clothing,1 which shed around 3,000 jobs. In mainly and highly export-oriented industries, employment declined more slowly. Employment fell the most in the manufacture of other machinery and 1 According to AJPES data (statistical data from companies' balance sheets and profit and loss accounts) for 2009, the turnover that companies generated abroad accounted for less than 50%. This activity is therefore classified among the manufacturing industries that are mainly oriented to the domestic market. 6 4 -2 -10 Table 2: Employed persons in manufacturing In '000 Change in number 2009 Q2 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q2 10/ Q2 09 Q2 10/ Q1 10 Manufacturing, total 199.8 201.4 190.0 189.4 -11,954 -560 Mfr. of metal products 39.6 39.7 37.5 37.4 -2,373 -109 Mfr. of ITC and el. equipment 27.0 27.1 26.3 26.1 -922 -205 Mfr. of food products 15.5 15.6 15.2 15.1 -458 -42 Mfr. of other machinery and equipment n.e.c. 14.8 15.0 13.8 13.8 -1,168 -59 Mfr. of motor vehicles and other transport equipment 13.7 13.7 13.4 13.6 -94 206 Mfr. of rubber and plastic products 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.1 31 61 Mfr. of furniture, manufacturing n.e.c. 12.9 13.0 12.3 12.2 -856 -99 Mfr. of chemical and pharm. products 11.9 11.9 11.8 11.8 -92 54 Mfr. of textiles 13.7 14.4 11.0 10.7 -3,694 -322 Mfr. of paper and paper products and printing 10.0 10.0 9.3 9.2 -815 -112 Mfr. of wood and of products of wood 9.6 9.6 9.1 9.0 -657 -132 Mfr. of non-metallic mineral products 8.6 8.7 8.1 8.2 -527 92 Repair and installation of machinery and equipment 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.8 -47 100 Mfr. of leather and related products 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.3 -231 9 Mfr. of coke and petroleum products 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -51 -3 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. equipment, where around 1,170 jobs were lost and which, along with the metal industry (approx. 2,370 jobs lost) contributed the most to the drop in employment in more export-oriented industries. The number of employed persons was similar to that in the same period last year (approx. 160 persons lower) in the rubber, chemical and pharmaceutical industry, and in the manufacture of transport equipment, which saw the greatest production growth in the second quarter this year (besides the manufacture of ICT and electrical appliances). Figure 11: Employment in manufacturing by export orientation IQ1 2010 IQ2 2010 -2 ä-6 -10 -12 Highly Mainly Domestic-market- export-oriented export-oriented oriented Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Construction activity declined in June as well as in the second quarter as a whole, falling to the lowest level since the beginning of the crisis. The value of construction put in place was 1.5% lower than in May (seasonally adjusted) and 16.9% lower than in July 2009. In the second quarter as a whole, activity was 5.1% lower than in the first, and down 16.7% y-o-y. Construction activity declined in all three sectors. In residential construction2 it dropped as Figure 12: Value of construction put in place - Construction - total ■ Residential buildings ■ Civil engineering works - Buildings -Total - Non-residential buildings 170 ■D 160 150 140 (D 130 ^^120 SS 110 100 90 80 a a Source: SORS; calcu lations by IMAD. 2 In interpreting the figure on the value of residential construction put in place, it should be noted that it does not include smaller enterprises, which are mainly engaged in construction of residential buildings, by our estimates. 0 -4 -8 Box2: Real estate market in Slovenia - second quarter of 2010 In the second quarter, the number of sold flats was similar to that in the second half of2009, which is still less than before the crisis but more than when the crisis began. The number of sold flats stabilised in the second quarter of 2010, and the decline, which had interrupted the gradual market recovery in the first quarter, came to a halt. This holds true for the number of reported market transactions that is monitored by SMARS (Surveying and Mapping Authority of the Republic of Slovenia) and mainly pertains to second-hand flats, and for the number of transactions in new flats reported by SORS. Compared with the highest figures achieved mid-2007, transactions in second-hand flats were down almost 40% and in new flats close to 50% in the second quarter of 2010. Y-o-y, the number of transactions was approximately 70% higher in both categories of flats, mainly due to last year's low base. Flats still account for the most important segment of the real estate market. Important segments are also family houses, where the number of transactions continued to increase slowly, and building plots, where transactions declined further in the second quarter of this year. Prices of sold second-hand and prices of new flats remained nearly unchanged also in the second quarter of 2010. Prices persist around the level achieved after the significant drop in the first quarter of 2009, which is approximately the same level as recorded at the beginning of monitoring in the first quarter of 2007. According to SORS, prices of second-hand flats dropped only by 6.4% and prices of new flats by 14.7% from their peaks in the third quarter of 2008. Nor have there been any major changes in other main real estate prices, and changes on the market have yet to be seen. Figure 13: Movements of prices of second-hand and new flats and transactions of flats • Prices-SORS, second-hand dwellings 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 ---Prices-SORS, new dwellings -Prices-SMARS ---Registered transactions-SMARS much as 53% from its pre-crisis peak, in civil engineering 37% and in non-residential construction 30%. The decline in the value of residential construction put in place is, by our estimate, related to large inventories of construction enterprises (which have mainly accumulated in residential construction).3 Activity in non-residential construction started to pick up in the first quarter of this year, only to decline again in the second, but the situation is still more favourable than in residential construction. This is partly related to the recovery of industry, and, by our estimate, to a lower level of inventory accumulation in this sector. The decline in the value of construction put in place in civil engineering was largely related to the decline in transport infrastructure construction. The total floor area of buildings planned by issued building permits was 1.2% higher y-o-y in the second quarter of 2010. This is the first y-o-y increase after eight consecutive quarters of decline. The total floor area planned for residential buildings declined by 1.4%, while the total floor area for non-residential buildings increased by 4.6%. Residential construction recorded a further decline in the total floor area for one-dwelling buildings, while non-residential buildings, as in the first quarter, saw an increase in the floor area for office buildings and buildings for public entertainment, education or hospital and institutional care. Figure 14: Total floor area planned by building permits Non-residential buildings ■ Residential buildings a a a Source: SORS; calculations by IM AD. Electricity production declined one fifth y-o-y in July, while consumption was one tenth higher. Electricity production dropped by 18.7% y-o-y (including only half of the nuclear power plant's production, by 22.4%), being 37.6% lower in hydroelectric power plants and 19.0% lower in thermal power plants, while remaining more or less unchanged in the nuclear power plant. Electricity consumption in July was up 10.8% y-o-y, which is a slightly smaller y-o-y a a a Source: SORS, SMARS; calculations by IMAD. 3 In the construction of buildings, inventories accounted for 69% of turnover in 2009, compared with 38% in 2007. Figure 15: Electricity production and consumption Output in thermal power plants Output in nuclear power plant (50%) Output in hydroelectric power plants — Electricity consumption 1100 1000 900 100 0 Source: ELES; calculations by IM AD. increase than in the spring months. Altogether 55% of the increase came from consumption from the distribution network, 26% from the pumped-storage power plant Avče and 19% from consumption by direct consumers (metal industry). Not including the Croatian part of the nuclear power plant's production, Slovenia's net electricity imports accounted for 16.4% of consumption in July, compared with last year's July, when Slovenia had a large electricity surplus. After two months of decline, total turnover in retail trade and in the sale of motor vehicles4 increased more notably in June (seasonally adjusted), which was, in addition to last Figure 16: Turnover in retail trade and in the sale and repair of motor vehicles 50 40 30 J^- 20 Is II 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 - Total retail trade - Automotive fuel Food, beverages, tobacco - Non-food Motor vehicles, motorcycles, spare parts a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. year's low-base effect, reflected in higher y-o-y turnover in the second quarter of this year. Total real turnover rose 5.1% in June, according to seasonally adjusted data, and 0.6% in the second quarter as a whole. Growth strengthened further y-o-y in June, so that in the second quarter as a whole, turnover was higher than in the same period last year (by 5.1%), after five quarters of decline. This was mainly a consequence of higher turnover in the sale and repair of motor vehicles due to increased sales of passenger cars (the number of new passenger car registrations was up 10.0%). Y-o-y turnover growth was also recorded in retail trade, which was entirely the result of the increase of turnover in June. Within retail trade, y-o-y turnover growth was recorded in specialised stores selling automotive fuels and in stores selling non-food products;5 in other retail trade sectors, turnover was still lower. Nominal turnover in wholesale trade also increased more notably in June (seasonally adjusted), which, along with last year's low base, influenced y-o-y turnover growth in the second quarter, similar to retail trade. Nominal turnover in wholesale trade increased by 4.8% in June according to seasonally adjusted data, being higher y-o-y for the second time in a row (by nearly 10%). In the second quarter as a whole, turnover grew 3.7% y-o-y, the first increase after five quarters of decline. Real turnover in accommodation and food service activities continued to decline in June (seasonally adjusted); y-o-y, its decline slowed further in the second quarter due to a low base. With the exception of January 2010, real turnover in accommodation and food service Figure 17: Tourist overnight stays and turnover in accommodation and food service activities I Turnover in hotels and restaurants - Overnight stays -total ■ Overnight stays -domestic - Overnight stays -foreign 12 9 6 3 0 -3 -6 -9 -12 -15 a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 4 In total retail trade, sale and repair of motor vehicles (47+45). 5 Within the sale of non-food products, y-o-y turnover growth was generated only in specialised stores selling textile, clothing, footwear and leather products, and in those selling pharmaceutical, medical, cosmetic and toilet articles. 15 activities has declined since September 2008, according to seasonally adjusted data, dropping by a further 0.8% in June. In June, y-o-y growth strengthened largely due to the low-base effect; turnover in the second quarter as a whole was hence 0.4% lower and in the first half of this year 1.0% lower y-o-y. By our estimate, turnover most likely declined due to a lower level of average consumption by tourists and lower turnover by the non-tourist part of the accommodation and food service sector (household spending on food and beverages). After improving for a few months and stagnating in July, the seasonally adjusted value of the sentiment indicator deteriorated slightly in August. Confidence indicators dropped in manufacturing and services. The consumer confidence indicator also declined, while confidence indicators in retail trade and construction increased; however, the value of the latter remains very low. Figure 18: Business trends - Economic sentiment - Retail trade ---Service act. --------Manufacturing --------Consumers ----Construction 40 30 20 12 10 ^TD 0 -10 -20 -30 ^ -40 -50 -60 -70 S Source: SORS. Labour market Changes in the number of employed persons were relatively small in the period from February to June this year. The number of employed persons has stagnated since January, according to seasonally adjusted data, but the y-o-y rates of decline have been falling steadily, given the significant job losses in the same period of last year and this year's stagnation. In the second quarter, employment was by an average of 0.3% higher than in the first (according to original data), largely due to persons employed with legal entities, whose number was up for the first time since 2008 (by 0.2), as well as due to a somewhat higher number of farmers.1 The number of employed persons in the small business sector, however, continued to decline, as well 6 Partly also due to January's significant statistical decline and then April's increase in the estimated number of farmers based on the labour force survey for the previous quarter. as, for the second quarter in a row, the number of self-employed persons outside agriculture. Jobs were created in all types of services, with the exception of wholesale and retail trade, transport, and hotels and restaurants, where employment is still declining, though less than in previous quarters. Employment is also declining more slowly in manufacturing and construction. According to the labour force survey, the number of employed persons increased somewhat in the second quarter compared with the first (0.3% according to original data), but remained lower y-o-y, by 13,000 (-1.3%). Figure 19: Persons in formal employment by activity Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. In the second quarter, the number of vacancies increased y-o-y, while the number of persons hired remained lower. In the second quarter, the number of vacancies was up 10% from the same quarter of 2009, with the number Figure 20: Vacancies and new hires -Vacancies 2010 ---Vacancies 2009 - Vacancies 2008 -Newjobs 2010 ---Newjobs 2009 Newjobs 2008 \ 4 v .4:\ \ id Q Source: ESS; calculations by IMAD. 25 23 21 19 17 JZ C • 15 -Q ^ 13 11 9 7 5 Table 3: Persons in formal employment by activity Number in 1,000 Y-o-y growth rates, % 2009 VI 09 V 10 VI 10 2009/ 2008 VI 10/ V 10 VI 10/ VI 09 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 37.9 38.0 34.6 34.7 -4.5 0.3 -8.7 B Mining and quarrying 3.3 3.4 3.1 3.0 -7.5 -0.3 -9.5 C Manufacturing 199.8 199.2 189.4 189.0 -10.1 -0.2 -5.1 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 7.9 7.9 8.0 8.0 2.9 0.3 0.7 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.2 2.3 0.2 1.5 F Constrution 86.8 87.5 79.5 79.3 -1.3 -0.3 -9.4 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 114.6 114.5 112.2 112.2 -1.0 -0.1 -2.0 H Transportation and storage 49.8 49.9 48.0 48.0 -2.8 -0.1 -3.7 I Accommodation and food service activities 34.0 34.4 33.4 33.5 0.6 0.2 -2.6 J Information and communication 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 2.8 -0.1 -0.3 K Financial and insurance activities 24.5 24.8 24.1 24.5 1.0 1.9 -0.9 L Real estate activities 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.7 -0.6 -1.6 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 44.8 44.5 46.6 46.9 4.6 0.5 5.4 N Administrative and support service activities 25.6 25.4 26.4 26.6 -1.7 0.8 4.6 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 51.5 51.6 52.3 52.4 1.1 0.2 1.5 P Education 61.7 61.7 63.6 63.4 2.8 -0.3 2.7 Q Human health and social work activities 52.1 52.4 53.2 53.4 2.1 0.4 2.1 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 14.1 14.1 14.3 14.2 1.8 -0.4 0.8 S Other service activities 13.3 13.3 13.5 13.5 3.7 0.2 1.5 T Activities of households as employers, undiferentiated goods - and services - producing activities of households for own use 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 7.0 -0.2 1.0 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. of new hires still being 8.2% lower. In the first half of 2010, employers posted 2.3% more vacancies than in the same period last year. In that period, demand for workers increased most notably in manufacturing, and in professional, scientific and technical activities (by around one third in each category), as well as in water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities, and in information and communication activities (by around one tenth). It dropped deepest in construction (-18.4%), agriculture, forestry and fishing (-15.7%), and in public administration, defence and compulsory social security (-13.6%). The number of registered unemployed increased again in August after a longer period of stagnation, reaching 99,032 by the end of the month. The number of registered unemployed persons dropped in the second quarter of this year, but the seasonally adjusted growth rate remained slightly positive (1.9%). July and particularly August saw a higher number of unemployed, as well as a higher seasonally adjusted growth rate. The number of unemployed persons increased by 626 in August (1.7%, seasonally adjusted) and was 12.4% higher y-o-y. After dropping in May, the registered unemployment rate did not change in June (10.5%) and was the same as in the second quarter as a whole. According to the labour force survey, in the second quarter, the number of unemployed persons remained at the same level as in the first (74,000), being up 27.6% y-o-y. The survey unemployment rate maintained its first quarter level as well, even though it is still rising, seasonally adjusted. Figure 21: Seasonally adjusted labour market rmovements by quarter Employed, seas. adjusted, left axis Employed -ILO, seas. adjusted, left axis Unemployed - ILO, seas. adjusted, right axis O O O Source: SORS, ESS; calculations by IMAD. Table 4: Labour market indicators in % 2009 VI 10/ V 10 VI 10/ VI 09 I-VI 10/ I-VI 09 Labour force 0.2 0.0 -0.9 -1.0 Persons in formal employment -2.4 0.1 -2.3 -3.2 - Employed in in enterprises and organisations and by those self-employed -2.5 0.1 -2.2 -3.2 Registered unemployed 36.6 -0.2 13.5 22.6 Average nominal gross wage 3.4 1.1 4.4 4.0 - private sector 1.8 1.7 5.8 5.4 - public sector 6.5 -0.3 0.1 -0.4 2009 VI 09 V 10 VI 10 Rate of registered unemployment, in % 9.1 9.1 10.5 10.5 Average nominal gross wage (in EUR) 1,438.96 1,429.12 1,475.04 1,491.57 Private sector (in EUR) 1,338.77 1,322.92 1,375.99 1,399.56 Public sector (in EUR) 1,749.82 1,759.92 1,767.42 1,761.92 Sources: ESS, SORS; calculations by IMAD. The average gross wage per employee grew by a nominal 1.1% in June owing to the increase in the private sector gross wage. In June, growth in the total gross wage strengthened to 4.4% y-o-y, totalling 4.3% in the second quarter as a whole, similar to what was recorded in the same period last year (4.6%). Figure 22: Nominal gross wage per employee -Total -Private sector -----Public sector 1,800 1,200 1,100 a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. The average gross wage per employee in the private sector increased by 1.7% in June and this year's relatively high y-o-y growth was even somewhat stronger. Significant contributions to June's increase in the gross wage in this sector came from above-average wage rises in electricity, gas and steam supply (9.0%), and financial and insurance activities (8.3%). Growth in this sector's gross wage strengthened somewhat further y-o-y (5.8%), the bulk coming from the gross basic wage (without payments for overtime work and payments in arrears; 5.4 p.p.), which grew significantly in March upon the minimum wage increase. In the second quarter, y-o-y growth in this sector's gross wage amounted to 5.8%, 4.2 p.p. more than the year before. It was highest in the industry group (B-E; 9.2%) and lowest in business services (J-N, S, 2.6%). Looking at activities, the highest y-o-y growth was recorded in manufacturing (10.0%), mainly due to the increase in the minimum wage,7 the effect of last year' wage reduction (-0.5%) and a declining number of employees with low wages, and partly to the strengthening of the volume of paid overtime work and payments in arrears. Figure 23: Gross wages in the private sector 10 9 8 7 i 4 Industry (B-E) • Construction (F) - Production services (G-I) Business services (J-N;S) E3 cS a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 24: Gross wages in the public sector 25 20 Public administration - Education - Human health and social work act. Arts, entertainment, recreation £ 10 a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 7 Manufacturing had the greatest number of minimum-wage recipients, of whom more than 67% received the minimum wage in the highest category, between EUR 685 and EUR 734. 6 5 3 2 0 15 5 0 The average gross wage per employee in the public sector dropped slightly in June (-0.3%); y-o-y, it remained at the level of the year before (0.1%), after recording high growth rates in 2009 and 2008. June's decline was underpinned by lower gross payments for overtime work (-0.1 p.p.) and payments in arrears (-0.2 p.p.). The average wage declined in health and social work, and arts, entertainment and recreation (by 1.3% and 1.2%), respectively, while increasing in education and public administration (by 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively). In the second quarter, the gross wage in this sector was down 0.3% y-o-y (last year's growth, 11.4%), with the number of wage recipients in public sector activities continuing to grow this year. In the first six months, the number of wage recipients in the public sector increased by 1,441, while dropping by a further 3,464 in the private sector. Prices Consumer prices rose by 0.3% in August (last year, 0.0%; in 2008, -0.6%), while year-on-year inflation totalled 2.3% (2.1% in July). In the first eight months of this year, prices rose by 2.0% (last year: 1.4%), in the euro area by 0.9% (y-o-y in August: 1.6%). In the first eight months of this year, consumer price rises in Slovenia were chiefly due to growing energy price and Figure 25: Inflation in Slovenia and in the euro area 12 10 Source: SORS, Eurostat. excise duty rises. Energy price rises are related to oil price dynamics in the international environment and the USD/ EUR exchange rate. Higher energy prices contributed around 1.4 p.p. to 2.0% inflation in the first eight months, 0.8 p.p. of which came from higher prices of liquid fuels. Prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages rose in that period, while they had dropped in 2009. Growth of Table 5: Breakdown of HICP into sub-groups - the first seven months of 2010 Evro area Slovenia Cum. % Weight % Contribution in p.p. Cum % Weight % Contribution in p.p. Total HICP 0.7 100.0 0.7 1.8 100.0 1.8 Goods 0.4 58.0 0.2 1.4 66.2 0.9 Processed food, alcohol and tobacco 0.6 11.9 0.1 2.5 14.8 0.4 Non-processed food 2.4 7.3 0.2 7.0 6.9 0.5 Non-energy industrial goods -2.4 29.3 -0.7 -4.2 30.7 -1.3 Energy 6.8 9.6 0.7 10.0 13.9 1.4 Electricity for households 1.2 2.4 0.0 4.3 2.6 0.1 Natural gas 6.5 1.5 0.1 15.0 0.8 0.1 Liquid fuels for heating 15.3 0.8 0.1 24.1 1.5 0.4 Solid fuels 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.4 1.0 0.0 District heating -3.7 0.5 0.0 15.7 0.8 0.1 Fuels and lubricants 9.7 4.3 0.4 9.5 7.2 0.7 Services 1.3 42.0 0.5 2.9 33.8 1.0 Services - dwellings 1.2 10.2 0.1 4.5 2.7 0.1 Services - transport 2.1 6.6 0.1 1.4 5.2 0.1 Services - communications -0.3 3.3 0.0 -0.1 3.4 0.0 Services - recreation, repairs, personal care 1.3 14.8 0.2 4.5 14.3 0.6 Services - other services 0.9 7.1 0.1 1.7 8.1 0.1 HICP excluding energy and non-processed food -0.2 83.1 -0.2 -0.1 79.3 -0.1 Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Note: ECB classification 8 2 0 services prices was also somewhat lower than last year. In August, inflation was significantly affected by higher excise duties on tobacco, natural gas and electricity for households. The total effect of all tax changes in the first eight months of the year has already come to 0.7 p.p. (0.8 p.p. higher excise duties, -0.1 p.p. lower VAT on locally-provided services). Figure 26: Contributions of excise duty changes and VAT to y-o-y inflation 2,5 CNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrN Source: SORS; estimate by IMAD. Growth in producer prices of manufactured goods on the domestic market is under the influence of external factors. With a monthly price decline of 0.1%, y-o-y growth in producer prices of manufactured goods on the domestic market increased slightly in July, amounting to 2.7%. It is still mainly related to price movements in manufacturing, largely in the manufacture of metals and metal products, Figure 27: Growth in industrial producer prices -PPI (domestic market) ---------EL., GAS, STEAM, AIR COND. SUPPLY -----Mfr. of basic metals,fabricated metal prod., exc. mach. and equip. ----Mfr. of food products; beverages and tobacco products ---------Mfr. of chemicals, chemical prod., and basic pharm. products, prep. 18 15 12 9 l^w 6 H 3 Ž-3 -6 -9 -12 -15 -18 -t- where prices increased by close to 15% y-o-y, to a large extent as a result of higher prices of metals in the international environment. Prices in the manufacture of pharmaceutical and chemical products have also grown y-o-y over the last few months. Price competitiveness continued to improve in June under the impact of the depreciation of the euro. The real effective exchange rate, deflated by relative8 consumer price growth, dropped once again in May and June,9 after gaining value for two months. Amid moderate relative consumer price growth, price competitiveness improved as a result of the depreciation of the euro against the currencies of most Slovenia's main trading partners, which continued in June for the eighth successive month. Improvement in price competitiveness is also shown by the real effective exchange rate, deflated by relative growth in producer prices in manufacturing.10 Figure 28: Nominal and real effective exchange rates Real, deflated by CPI - Real, deflated by PPI - Nominal effective exchange rate Source: ECB, SORS, OECD, Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Balance of payments The current account of the balance of payments recorded a surplus of EUR 104.4 m in June and a deficit of EUR 40.2 m in the second quarter as a whole (a surplus of EUR 64.1 m in the same period of last year). In the second quarter of this year, the deficit in current transactions was mainly related to movements in trade in goods and services. The deficit in the balance of merchandise trade widened y-o-y in the second quarter of this year, for the first time in several quarters, while the surplus in the balance of services narrowed once again. The deficit in the balance Source: SORS. 8 In Slovenia, compared with its trading partners. 9 In June, a 1.4% decline relative to December, and in the first half of 2010, an 0.8% decline compared with the first half of 2009. 10 In June, a 2.7% decline relative to December, and in the first half of 2010, a 2.9% decline compared with the first half of 2009. Figure 29: Components of the current account balance Trade balance ^■Services balance ^■Factor incomes Current transfers -Current account O O O Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. of merchandise trade (-EUR 155.9 m) in the second quarter was much higher than in the same period of last year, when it was lowest to date (-EUR 28.9 m).11 With faster volume growth of exports than imports, the nominal deficit in the second quarter was significantly impacted by deteriorated terms of trade (5.0%). Due to the uptick in global demand and depreciation of the EUR against the USD, the second quarter saw significant y-o-y rises of prices of oil and other primary commodities, 44.3% and 29.7%, respectively.12 Looking at the regional structure, the merchandise deficit was impacted both by a higher deficit in trade with the EU and by a lower surplus in trade with non-EU countries. The surplus in the balance of services (EUR 298.1 m) narrowed once again y-o-y, largely due to a lower trade surplus in air and maritime transport and travel services. The group of other services recorded the greatest y-o-y increase in the trade deficit in licences, patents and copyrights, while the trade surplus in financial services widened y-o-y for the third quarter in a row. The deficit in the balance of factor incomes narrowed again y-o-y in the second quarter, while the deficit in the balance of current transfers widened. The deficit in the balance of factor incomes amounted to EUR 149.5 m and was down y-o-y. Total net interest payments abroad dropped y-o-y, on account of lower net interest payments on loans, which is related to interest rates being kept low and to repayment of loans (since the onset of the crisis, commercial banks have repaid EUR 3.8 bn worth of foreign loans). Because of the bonds issued by the government sector and banks to mitigate the financial crisis, Slovenia's interest payments to the rest of the world exceeded interest receipts on investments in securities. The net inflow of income from labour dropped y-o-y, mainly due to a decline in the number of foreign workers Table 6: Balance of payments I-VI 10, EUR m Inflows Outflows Balance1 Balance, I-VI 09 Current account 11,832.0 11,990.9 -158.9 -240.1 - Trade balance (FOB) 8,939.4 9,220.8 -281.4 -184.9 - Services 1,997.1 1,482.2 514.9 549.9 - Income 425.6 731.8 -306.3 -429.9 Current transfers 469.9 556.0 -86.2 -175.3 Capital and financial account 2,991.9 -2,574.8 417.1 -81.7 - Capital account 86.4 -204.4 -118.0 36.5 - Capital transfers 85.4 -202.7 -117.2 39.6 - Non-produced, non-financial assets 1.0 -1.7 -0.8 -3.1 - Financial account 2,905.5 -2,370.4 535.1 -118.2 - Direct investment 151.5 -89.1 62.4 -411.9 - Portfolio investment 2,247.8 -643.2 1,604.6 2,025.1 - Financial derivates -56.0 -0.7 -56.7 -11.7 - Other investment 551.2 -1,637.4 -1,086.3 -1,879.5 - Assets 157.1 -485.4 -328.4 585.2 - Liabilities 394.1 -1,152.0 -757.9 -2,464.6 - Reserve assets 11.1 0.0 11.1 159.9 Net errors and omissions 0.0 -258.2 -258.2 321.8 Sources: BS. Note: 'a minus sign (-) in the balance indicates a surplus of imports over exports in the current account and a rise in assets in the capital and financial account and the central bank's international reserves. 1 Since data have been available (1996). 12 IMF commodity price index and IMAD conversion of dollars to euros. in Slovenian companies, which translated into a lower outflow of their income abroad. The deficit in the balance of current transfers (EUR 32.9 m) widened y-o-y, largely due to a more modest surplus of Slovenia's state budget against the EU budget,13 even though net payments of contributions and taxes to the rest of the world were lower y-o-y. External financial transactions (excluding international monetary reserves) posted a net capital inflow of EUR532.0 m in the second quarter of this year, after a modest net outflow in the first quarter (EUR 8.0 m).. The net capital inflows of the BS and the private sector (EUR 670.4 m, in total) were much higher than the net capital outflow of the general government sector (EUR -138.4 m). Direct investment posted a net inflow in the second quarter (EUR 106.1 m). Outward direct investment recorded a net outflow in the amount of EUR 32.5 m, largely due to affiliated enterprises repaying loans to domestic parent companies, while foreign direct investment in Slovenia recorded a net inflow (EUR 73.6 m) for the second quarter in a row, albeit with modest equity flows. Portfolio investment registered a net inflow again in the second quarter of this year (EUR 501.9 m). This was mainly attributable to a high net inflow in April, when in order to provide loans for enterprises, SID bank issued its first bond in international capital markets in the amount of EUR 750 m. In the second quarter, a net inflow was also recorded by commercial banks selling short-term investments (money market instruments), and by the BS, which withdrew its deposits from abroad while increasing investment in capital market instruments. Other sectors, on the other hand, recorded a net outflow, due to investment in equity securities of the euro area, which we estimate reflects their expectations that business profits will grow. Other investment recorded a net outflow of EUR 41.1 m in the second quarter, with external claims picking up more (by EUR 605.5 m) than external liabilities (EUR 564.4 m), the latter for the first time since the beginning of the financial crisis. Short-term trade credits increased again, reflecting strong growth in merchandise trade. After financing the rest of the world in the first quarter, via short-term bank loans, these were repaid in the second quarter. The amount of short-term loans taken out by domestic commercial banks abroad exceeded the level of long-term loans they repaid. A substantial increase was recorded for deposits of domestic banks and households in foreign accounts. The BS increased its liabilities against the TARGET position in the amount of EUR 313.9 m. 13 This modest y-o-y surplus against the EU budget is largely a result of a lower level of funds received under the Common Agricultural Policy in April this year, as due to limited competence of the temporary Minister for Agriculture, Forestry and Food, the funds received under the Common Agricultural Policy were not recorded in the integrated budget; under the Common Agricultural Policy, Slovenia thus received only interest from other refunds in the amount of EUR 10 from the EU budget in April. Figure 30: Financial transactions of the balance of payments by sector Direct investment Portfolio investment Financial derivatives Other investment -Net financial flow 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 ^^ 0 -500 -1000 -1500 -2000 -2500 a a a Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Financial markets In the first seven months of this year, the net flow of loans was up from the same period of2009, largely on account of households' housing borrowing. Domestic banks recorded net lending of EUR 866.5 m in the first seven months, nearly one fifth more than in the same period of last year. The bulk of this year's net flows came from household borrowing, as total net corporate and NFI borrowing (at home and abroad) remained much lower than before the crisis and also relative to the same period of last year, and Figure 31: Net flows and growth of domestic bank loans to domestic non-banking sectors 600 I Households (left axis) I Government (left axis) - Enterprises&NFI (right axis) I Enterprises&NFI (left axis) ■ Households (right axis) Total (right axis) 30 25 20 15 S or 10 rg y 5 0 -5 -10 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Table 7: Financial market indicators Domestic bank loans to non-banking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR bn Nominal loan growth, % 31. XII 09 31. VII 10 31. VII 10/ 30. VI 10 31. VII 10/ 31. XII 09 31. VII 10/ 31. VII 09 Loans total 32,444.95 33,311.48 0.0 2.7 3.2 Enterprises and NFI 23,161.09 23,523.97 0.2 1.6 0.4 Government 870.95 870.55 -6.0 0.0 8.7 Households 8,412.91 8,916.96 0.2 6.0 10.7 Consumer credits 2,899.95 2,812.29 -0.5 -3.0 -2.0 Lending for house purchase 3,927.13 4,536.88 1.0 15.5 24.8 Other lending 1,585.84 1,567.78 -0.7 -1.1 1.2 Bank deposits total 14,313.07 14,708.60 -0.1 2.8 4.3 Overnight deposits 5,655.00 6,143.75 -0.9 8.6 10.1 Short-term deposits 5,116.28 4,659.75 0.0 -8.9 -15.3 Long-term deposits 2,874.95 3,891.30 1.7 35.4 57.9 Deposits redeemable at notice 666.84 13.80 -56.1 -97.9 -97.5 Mutual funds 1,856.30 1,948.15 3.3 4.9 13.3 Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BS, SMA (Securities Market Agency); calculations by IMAD. as the government mainly net repaid loans in the first seven months. Looking at the sources of finance, banks recorded net inflows from abroad in June for the second consecutive month; government and household deposits, on the other hand, recorded a net outflow in July. In the euro area, the volume of non-banking sectors' loans declined in July, while increasing significantly y-o-y in the first seven months as a whole. Net repayment of corporate and NFI loans made the greatest contribution to July's decline, being the greatest since October 2009 (EUR 18.5 bn). A positive net flow was recorded only by households, but household borrowing also eased significantly compared with June. Despite modest lending activity in July, net flows of loans to non-banking sectors in the euro area amounted to EUR 241.0 bn in the first seven months of this year, by a factor of 8.9 higher value than in the same period last year, but still much below what was recorded before the beginning of the crisis. After being significant in June, net household borrowing slowed notably in Slovenia in July, and households continued to take out only housing loans. Net household borrowing recorded less than EUR 20 m in July, the lowest figure in the last twelve months. A positive net flow was recorded only for housing loans (EUR 46.6 m), which fell significantly below this year's monthly average, reaching the second lowest value in 2010 (in February, housing loans recorded a net flow of EUR 41.6 m). In the first seven months of this year, net flows of household loans totalled EUR 504.0 m, 2.2 times more than in the comparable period of 2009. The increase was entirely the result of housing loans (EUR 609.8 m), with households making net repayments of consumer and other loans. Total net flows of corporate and NFI loans (at home and abroad) in the first half of this year account for only 14.5% Figure 32: Net flows of household loans by purpose lOtherlendlng IConsumercredits I Lending for house purchase 0 -50 -100 Source: BS. of what was recorded in the same period last year.14 In July, net flows from domestic banks to enterprises and NFIs (EUR 41.3 m) lagged somewhat behind this year's monthly average; in the first seven months as a whole, enterprises and NFIs took out almost 30% more loans at domestic banks than in the same period last year (EUR 362.9 m). In July, borrowing was once again recorded only by enterprises, while NFIs had net repaid domestic loans since February (the net outflow amounted to EUR 126.8 m in the period from February to July). In June, enterprises and NFIs repaid foreign loans again (in a net amount of EUR 90.8 m), and that mainly long-term loans, which 14 For net flows with domestic banks, we already have data for July, while data on net flows abroad are available only for the first six months. accounted for more than 90% of all net repayments. The difference between domestic and foreign interest rates remained significant in July, even though it was the lowest since February 2009. Interest rates for corporate loans over EUR 1 m with a variable interest rate, or up to one year with a fixed interest rate, were 249 basis points higher than, on average, in the euro area. The total net flow of corporate and NFI loans (at home and abroad) amounted to EUR 61.9 m in the first half of this year (EUR 427.8 m in the same period of 2009). Enterprises and NFI borrowed a net EUR 321.6 m at domestic banks in that period of 2010 (while they had net repaid their loans last year) and repaid foreign loans in a net amount of EUR 259.7 m (compared with net borrowing last year). Figure 33: Net corporate and NFI borrowing abroad and differences in interest rates Loans -Difference between domestic and foreign interest rates 200 340 310 280 250 220 190 160 130 100 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. In June, banks recorded a net inflow of foreign sources for the second successive month, EUR 154.2 m. Unlike in May, their maturity was shorter (short-term loans and deposits), while banks net repaid long-term loans in the amount of over EUR 40 m. Despite solid net inflows in the last two months, banks net repaid foreign loans and deposits in the amount of EUR 624.0 m in the first half of the year, only one quarter of the value recorded in the comparable period last year. The quality of banks' total assets is deteriorating further and banks increased their impairments again in June and July. These amounted to EUR 332.6 m in the first seven months of the year, an almost half higher figure than in the same period of last year. With a relatively high exposure of Slovenian banks to enterprises associated with take-over and construction activities where no visible improvement has yet been seen, the quality of bank investments is set to deteriorate further. Household deposits in banks recorded net outflows (-EUR 12.0 m) in July for the third time and government deposits for the fifth time in 2010 (-EUR 144.7m). Long-term deposits of Figure 34: Net bank borrowing abroad ■ Deposits »Short-term «Long-term 600 Source:BS. Figure 35: Creation of additional impairments and provisions in Slovenia's banking system 80 cc 60 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. households continued to strengthen, but had the lowest net inflows this year (EUR 63.5 m), while other deposits posted net outflows. The greatest relative decline was recorded for deposits redeemable at notice, which more than halved at the monthly level and dropped by 97.9% compared with the end of the year. This is, by our estimate, largely a result of the fact that interest rates of this type of deposits are mainly tied to interbank interest rates, which declined. Net inflows of all household deposits to banks amounted to EUR 395.5 m in the first seven months of this year, down almost 3% from the same period last year. Government deposits recorded net outflows of EUR 499.0 m in the first seven months of this year, despite strong January's inflows of nearly EUR 1 bn, while having enjoyed net inflows of EUR 1.6 bn in the same period of 2009. Figure 36: Net inflows of household deposits in banks and mutual funds, and y-o-y change in stock ^^m Mutual funds (left axis) Other deposits (left axis) Long-term time deposits (left axis) -Deposits, total (right axis) -----Long-term time deposits (right axis) ----Mutual funds (right axis) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 -250 -300 -350 90 75 60 45 30 15 0 -15 -30 -45 -60 -75 -90 -105 I I I I Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Public finance According to data on paid taxes and social security contributions,15 payments declined again in July (-6.0%), after increasing in June (3.9%). July's decline is largely related to lower inflows of personal income tax (by nearly 62%). Inflows declined due to personal income tax refunds based on tax assessments for 2009, which amounted to as much as EUR 113 m. Prepayments of tax on income from employment also plummeted in July (-10.7%), as did other personal income tax revenues, particularly taxes on income from capital gains and income from property. Revenue from social security contributions was slightly lower as well (-0.2%), but it was 1.8% higher y-o-y. Revenue from excise duties16 was up 18.6% in July, given the July increases in excise on bear, intermediate beverages and alcohol, as well as tobacco and tobacco products at the end of the month. Due to assessments of value added tax, revenue from this tax swung upwards once again in July, being up more than 30% from June. Prepayments of corporate income tax stabilised, totalling around EUR 49 m for the second month in a row, which is nevertheless still around 20% below what was recorded in the comparable period last year. In the first seven months of 2010, revenue from taxes and social security contributions dropped by 2.9% relative to the same period last year, with payments amounting to EUR 7.3 bn. Only revenues from value added tax (VAT) and social security contributions increased y-o-y in the first seven months, while revenues from all other taxes and contributions declined. Inflows of VAT rose by 3.5% in this period. At the beginning of the year, VAT inflows shrank due to shortened deadlines for tax refunds, while the recorded growth is due to the effect of a very low base, as in the first half of 2009, VAT inflows dropped most notably due to lower economic activity. Social security contributions increased by 0.3%, y-o-y, in the first seven months. Growth in revenue from social security contributions had been slowing from month to month at the end of last year, turning into a decline in January, which lasted until May 2010. In the first six months as a whole, social security contributions were again up y-o-y, by 0.1%, and in the first seven months, by 0.3%. After a longer period of growth, revenue from excise duties dropped y-o-y in July for the fifth consecutive month, while being down 1.4% y-o-y in the first seven months as a whole. Excise duties are otherwise generated at higher rates than in the same period last year, but the quantity of excise goods sold is significantly lower. In the first seven months, revenue from corporate income tax dropped the most y-o-y (nearly 48%). Revenue declined as a result of refunds paid according to tax assessments based on business results for 2009, tax relief and a lower tax rate. The new monthly prepayments are therefore also much lower than last year, as taxpayers can request a reduction based on deteriorated business performance in the current year and a 1 p.p. lower statutory tax rate (20.0%). Revenue from personal income tax declined 5.2% y-o-y in the first seven months: revenue from tax on income from employment was slightly higher (0.2%), but there was a significant drop in revenues from other personal income tax sub-categories (more than 20%), particularly from taxes on income from entrepreneurial profits and income Figure 37: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure ■ Other domestic taxes Excise duties »Value added tax 500 450 400 350 300 c CD 250 SE cc ID 200 150 100 50 0 Lk ^ o Li ^ o Li ^ .^c Q < .^c Q < -^c Source: Public Payments Administration; calculations by IMAD. 15 Based on the Report on Payments of All Public Revenues, January-July 2010, Public Payments Administration. 16 The figure for excise duties is corrected for the timing of excise duty payments. 17 The consolidated balance (according to the cash flow methodology) includes revenues and expenditures of the state and local government budgets, as well as the pension and health funds. Table 8: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 2009 2010 EUR m % of GDP Growth, % I-VI 10 EUR m VI 10/ VI 09 I-VI 10/ I-VI 09 Revenues - total 14,404.0 41.3 -6.1 6,787.1 0.5 -0.6 - Tax revenues 12,955.3 37.1 -7.0 6,172.6 3.6 -0.8 - Taxes on income and profit 2,805.1 8.0 -18.5 1,229.8 43.9 -7.2 - Social security contributions 5,161.3 14.8 1.3 2,578.2 2.6 0.5 - Domestic taxes on goods and servises 4,660.1 13.4 -3.0 2,223.1 -10.4 1.4 - Receipts from the EU budget 596.5 1.7 63.3 226.0 -35.7 -9.2 Expenditure - total 16,365.4 46.9 6.0 8,157.2 0.3 2.7 - Wages and other personnel expenditure 3,912.3 11.2 9.3 1,971.5 0.8 0.0 - Purchases of goods and services 2,506.8 7.2 -0.8 1,178.7 7.7 1.2 - Transfers to individuals and households 6,024.1 17.3 7.3 3,200.1 6.1 4.9 - Capital expenditure 1,293.3 3.7 3.3 405.2 -0.8 -1.8 - Capital transfers 495.2 1.4 8.1 137.3 -23.6 -7.7 - Payment to the EU budget 439.3 1.3 2.7 218.4 -54.2 -10.7 Saldo -1,961.4 -5.6 -1,370.2 from capital gains. Revenue from personal income tax based on final personal income tax assessments also increased y-o-y in the first seven months. According to the consolidated balance17 of the MF, general government revenue totalled EUR 6.8 bn and general government expenditure EUR 8.2 bn in the first six months of 2010. Revenue declined by 0.6% y-o-y (-7.4% last year), while expenditure increased by 2.7% (10.6% last year). Slovenia's public finance thus remains in a significant imbalance. The deficit climbed to EUR 1,370 bn in the first six months of 2010. In terms of economic structure of expenditure, all categories of general government expenditure were up y-o-y in the first six months, except capital expenditure and capital transfers (-3.4%), subsidies (-2.9%), and expenditure on wages and other personnel expenditures, which were equal to what was recorded last year. Expenditure on goods and service increased by 1.2% y-o-y in the first half of the year. Interest payments recorded nearly 30% y-o-y growth in the first six months. Transfers to individuals and households were 4.9% higher y-o-y, or 7.3% not including pensions. Expenditure on transfers to the unemployed grew most notably (43.6%), given the deteriorated situation on the labour market, but its growth is slowing from month to month. Strong growth was also posted for social security transfers (9.8%). Growth in expenditure on pensions eased towards the end of last year, while in the first six months of this year, this expenditure was 3.6% higher y-o-y. The state budget deficit climbed to EUR 1,321 m in the first six months of this year. With expenditure increasing by 3.6%, the total balance of local government budgets also recorded a deficit of EUR 30.6 m in that period. The deficit of the health fund stood at EUR 21 m. The pension fund was roughly balanced, thanks to a transfer of EUR 800 m Figure 38: Net flows and growth of domestic bank loans to domestic non-banking sectors -General government revenues -General government expenditures Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. from the state budget (a 9.9% higher figure than the year before). In June, Slovenia's state budget recorded a net surplus against the EU budget for the first time this year (EUR 7.5 m), and in July, Slovenia's positive net budgetary position increased by a further EUR 30.2 m. In July, the bulk of receipts came from funds for the implementation of the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies (EUR 41.6 m), which were the highest since March. Refunds from the Structural Funds were lower (EUR 16.9 m), while there was no absorption from the Cohesion Fund. In Source: MF. 1450 1400 1350 eg r" 1300 ra 1250 E 1200 1050 1000 the first seven months, Slovenia received EUR 286.9 m from the EU budget, 27.6% of what had been planned in the supplementary budget for 2010. Slovenia received the most of the planned funds under the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Polices, but fewer funds for the implementation of the structural policy. The fewest funds were received from the Cohesion fund, where motorway construction accounts for nearly one half of receipts. With motorway construction works already completed, all planned funds are expected to be absorbed from the Cohesion Fund in the second half of the year. Figure 39: Planned and absorbed EU funds Common Agricultural Policy Internal policies Other Pre-accession EU funds I Funds planned by the state budget for 2010 I Funds planned by the state budget for 2009 1 Total funds received in 2010 (Jan-July) 1 Total funds received in 2009 (Jan-Dec) 100 200 300 400 500 600 EUR million Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. 0 X "O C o a a (U "5 u (U MAIN INDICATORS 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Spring forecast 2010 forecast forecast forecast GDP (real growth rates, in %) 4.5 5.9 6.9 3.7 -8.1 0.6 2.4 3.1 GDP in EUR million (current prices and current exchange rate) 28,750 31,055 34,568 37,305 35,384 34,934 36,286 38,202 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices and current exchange rate) 14,369 15,467 17,123 18,450 17,331 17,153 17,778 18,681 GDP per capita (PPS)1 19,700 20,700 22,100 22,800 20,300 GDP per capita (PPS EU27=100)1 87 88 89 91 86 Gross national income (current prices and current fiksni exchange rate) 28,506 30,682 33,834 36,289 34,704 34,262 35,320 37,104 Gross national disposable income (current prices and current fiksni exchange rate) 28,362 30,467 33,607 35,914 34,448 34,293 35,224 36,905 Rate of registered unemployment 10.2 9.4 7.7 6.7 9.1 11.1 11.6 11.2 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 6.5 6.0 4.9 4.4 5.9 7.2 7.6 7.3 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 4.7 4.3 3.8 0.9 -6.3 3.0 3.0 3.0 Inflation,2 year average 2.5 2.5 3.6 5.7 0.9 1.3 1.6 2.3 Inflation,2 end of the year 2.3 2.8 5.6 2.1 1.8 1.3 2.0 2.5 INTERNATIONAL TRADE - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS Exports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 10.6 12.5 13.7 3.3 -17.7 4.3 6.3 7.4 Exports of goods 10.3 13.4 13.9 0.6 -18.1 4.7 6.4 7.4 Exports of services 12.0 8.6 13.2 16.2 -16.1 2.9 6.1 7.6 Imports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 6.6 12.2 16.7 3.8 -19.7 4.1 6.0 6.7 Imports of goods 6.8 12.7 16.2 3.1 -20.9 3.9 6.0 6.7 Imports of services 5.5 8.8 19.7 8.7 -12.3 4.9 6.0 6.6 Current account balance, in EUR million -498 -771 -1646 -2489 -526 -638 -1,095 -1,249 As a per cent share relative to GDP -1.7 -2.5 -4.8 -6.7 -1.5 -1.8 -3.0 -3.3 Gross external debt, in EUR million 20,496 24,067 34,752 38,997 40,008 41,9435- As a per cent share relative to GDP 71.3 77.5 100.5 104.5 113.1 Ratio of USD to EUR 1.244 1.254 1.371 1.471 1.393 1.364 1.358 1.358 DOMESTIC DEMAND - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) 2.6 2.9 6.7 2.9 -0.8 -0.5 1.7 2.3 As a % of GDP4 54.2 52.8 52.7 53.0 55.4 54.9 54.4 53.9 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) 3.4 4.0 0.7 6.2 3.0 0.6 0.2 0.8 As a % of GDP4 19.0 18.8 17.3 18.1 20.3 20.6 20.6 20.6 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) 3.7 10.1 12.8 8.5 -21.6 0.5 3.5 4.5 As a % of GDP4 25.5 26.5 27.7 28.8 23.9 24.0 24.2 24.5 Sources of data: SORS, BS, Eurostat-New Cronos (revised data, August 2010), estimate, calculations and forecasts by IMAD (spring Report 2010). Notes: 1Measured in purchasing power standard; ^Consumer price index; ^Balance of payments statistics (exports F.O.B., imports F.O.B.); real growth rates are adjusted for inter currency changes and changes in prices on foreign markets; 4Shares GDP are calculated for GDP in current prices at fixed exchange rate _(EUR=239.64); 5end June 2010;_ PRODUCTION 2007 2008 2009 2008 2009 2010 2008 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 6 7 8 9 10 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D 7.2 2.5 -17.3 8.4 3.3 -7.7 -18.1 -24.5 -18.3 -7.0 -0.1 11.4 6.8 2.0 -2.0 9.3 0.5 B Mining and quarrying 5.5 5.5 -2.9 3.5 7.1 -1.2 -6.7 -13.7 6.1 4.8 -8.2 13.9 5.6 34.4 -19.2 14.4 -1.0 C Manufacturing 8.5 2.6 -18.6 8.7 3.7 -8.4 -19.9 -25.9 -19.5 -7.8 0.4 12.4 6.7 1.7 -1.2 9.8 0.8 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 -11.1 2.1 -6.6 8.2 -1.1 4.5 -3.1 -8.6 -9.7 -5.5 -2.8 -0.4 12.2 0.2 -5.5 1.9 1.0 CONSTRUCTION,2 real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total 18.5 15.7 -21.0 17.0 15.7 4.2 -19.2 -19.0 -24.5 -20.5 -18.9 -16.7 15.3 15.8 8.5 22.4 15.1 Buildings 14.3 11.5 -22.6 7.3 11.5 -2.0 -20.8 -21.8 -27.4 -19.6 -7.4 -13.3 8.8 0.2 10.7 24.2 12.0 Civil engineering 21.9 18.9 -19.9 24.3 18.6 8.9 -17.6 -17.2 -22.6 -21.1 -29.3 -18.7 20.4 28.0 7.1 21.3 17.0 TRANSPORT, tonne-km in m, y-o-y growth rates, % Tonne-km in road transport 13.4 18.4 -9.2 23.5 7.7 17.2 -12.7 -7.6 -12.3 -4.7 19.8 Tonne-km in rail transport 6.8 -2.3 -24.2 -2.9 2.9 -3.6 -24.1 -26.0 -30.7 -15.9 18.8 Distributive trades, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* 9.7 10.1 -13.0 13.1 10.5 2.3 -10.1 -15.5 -16.0 -10.0 -1.4 5.1 10.3 12.6 5.8 12.8 2.8 Real turnover in retail trade 6.1 12.2 -10.6 15.5 12.7 7.2 -5.5 -11.3 -13.8 -11.1 -4.7 0.6 11.4 13.4 10.8 13.8 7.3 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles 19.2 6.2 -21.7 9.6 5.6 -9.9 -24.0 -28.0 -23.6 -8.1 6.3 15.2 9.0 12.3 -7.4 10.6 -7.4 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade 16.1 17.1 -21.4 23.9 20.9 4.8 -16.4 -23.9 -26.7 -18.1 -7.8 3.7 19.2 22.9 11.2 28.0 11.6 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, % Total, overnight stays 7.0 1.8 -1.3 1.0 1.8 0.6 -3.3 -3.8 1.7 -2.7 4.0 0.4 -2.4 3.6 3.2 -3.2 -2.1 Domestic tourists, overnight stays 4.9 5.2 5.8 4.6 4.7 7.2 5.2 2.3 11.7 -0.6 5.2 0.1 -2.1 1.1 8.9 3.9 6.0 Foreign tourists, overnight stays 8.4 -0.5 -6.5 -1.3 0.1 -4.8 -11.0 -7.9 -4.7 -4.7 2.7 0.7 -2.6 5.3 -0.2 -6.8 -7.4 Turnover in hotels and restaurants 2.4 -2.6 -11.4 -0.8 -4.0 -5.7 -8.7 -11.6 -12.1 -13.4 -1.5 -0.6 -5.0 -3.3 -3.8 -2.1 -1.1 AGRICULTURE, y-o-y growth rates, % Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EUR m 492.2 529.9 449.3 125.6 134.1 152.3 105.4 105.9 109.0 129.0 94.6 106.7 39.9 44.5 42.2 47.4 49.0 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**) Sentiment indicator 13 3 -23 10 7 -16 -31 -28 -18 -14 -12 -9 6 8 7 5 -5 Confidence indicator - in manufacturing 11 -6 -24 2 -3 -28 -35 -27 -19 -14 -7 0 -1 1 -3 -7 -21 - in construction 19 2 -50 9 3 -21 -43 -51 -54 -50 -57 -60 6 5 2 2 -6 - in services 29 26 -13 35 29 6 -18 -22 -11 -2 0 -4 30 29 33 25 18 - in retail trade 27 22 -13 28 25 8 -17 -17 -9 -7 -6 11 27 27 26 23 26 Consumer confidence indicator -11 -20 -30 -17 -16 -29 -39 -32 -23 -25 -25 -22 -20 -18 -19 -12 -18 Source of data: SORS. Notes: "Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. *Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels; **Seasonally adjusted data. 2008 2009 2010 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -11.7 -13.2 -17.0 -21.5 -15.9 -29.7 -22.2 -21.4 -20.8 -17.5 -16.7 -19.5 -1.7 4.8 -8.7 -1.1 8.6 9.3 14.6 10.3 - - -14.7 18.8 -6.9 -3.8 -9.2 -21.7 -10.2 -7.9 4.5 13.3 1.8 -4.3 32.4 -14.8 -7.2 -18.0 0.2 10.7 20.9 10.2 - - -12.5 -15.4 -18.8 -23.7 -17.2 -31.5 -23.6 -22.4 -22.1 -19.4 -17.1 -20.8 -2.6 5.3 -8.6 -0.4 9.4 10.5 15.5 11.3 4.7 7.5 -5.1 -1.3 -2.7 -9.5 -4.7 -11.3 -9.6 -7.3 -11.9 -5.6 -4.6 -6.3 -7.7 -2.0 1.9 -2.1 3.1 -2.1 -2.3 -3.6 -27.0 -22.7 -9.7 -20.5 -20.8 -15.9 -20.8 -19.5 -32.0 -28.3 -18.3 -9.5 -11.4 -24.2 -19.8 -17.8 -15.5 -16.9 -11.5 -6.9 -32.7 -17.3 -12.7 -18.0 -23.6 -23.3 -23.3 -26.8 -31.4 -28.2 -20.0 -7.3 -6.6 -10.2 -5.5 -13.7 -7.5 -18.6 - - 5.4 -0.6 -20.3 -27.5 -7.3 -22.0 -19.1 -10.7 -19.4 -14.1 -32.3 -28.4 -17.2 -11.3 -15.8 -38.5 -30.8 -20.6 -20.2 -15.8 - - 1.0 3.1 -6.2 -15.5 -8.6 -16.7 -17.1 -12.6 -14.8 -15.1 -18.2 -13.0 -11.1 -5.9 -4.8 -3.7 4.2 3.3 4.4 7.5 7.0 7.1 2.3 -13.3 -5.2 -9.3 -14.9 -9.5 -11.5 -13.3 -16.7 -12.9 -13.5 -7.0 -8.4 -5.2 -0.5 -1.3 -0.7 3.9 1.8 - -12.5 -10.1 -27.6 -24.5 -20.4 -34.7 -25.7 -23.1 -25.6 -20.6 -24.6 -16.0 -7.2 -1.2 5.2 -0.4 14.1 14.4 15.9 15.4 3.3 - 2.1 0.5 -16.9 -19.2 -13.2 -24.9 -25.3 -21.2 -27.5 -24.8 -27.6 -23.4 -19.0 -11.1 -10.8 -13.0 -0.7 -3.2 4.7 9.8 - - -4.4 8.7 3.6 -6.1 -6.9 3.6 -11.4 -1.8 -0.8 4.9 0.2 3.3 -3.9 -8.5 4.5 3.7 3.7 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.0 - 4.4 11.0 9.6 -1.5 10.7 4.3 -2.2 4.4 13.3 12.3 7.7 9.9 -1.5 -10.0 5.2 6.5 3.5 4.0 -3.9 0.3 -3.0 - -11.9 6.5 -0.6 -12.5 -20.5 3.0 -16.9 -6.3 -10.3 0.1 -4.1 -1.8 -6.4 -6.9 3.9 -0.6 3.9 -2.8 3.8 0.6 2.0 -4.3 -7.6 -7.4 -12.3 -9.1 -10.6 -13.4 -13.3 -11.7 -9.7 -13.1 -13.8 -13.6 -12.7 -1.4 -3.1 -0.8 -3.1 0.2 1.4 45.3 58.1 32.9 32.6 39.9 36.3 35.5 34.1 35.9 33.8 39.2 43.4 38.4 47.2 29.7 28.6 36.4 35.5 36.0 35.1 - - -18 -24 -31 -29 -33 -34 -25 -24 -21 -19 -13 -13 -15 -13 -10 -11 -15 -12 -8 -6 -6 -7 -29 -33 -37 -33 -34 -32 -27 -22 -23 -20 -14 -16 -13 -12 -6 -8 -6 -2 -1 2 5 1 -21 -35 -40 -40 -49 -53 -46 -54 -50 -59 -54 -55 -47 -49 -56 -55 -61 -63 -57 -60 -61 -57 6 -6 -14 -16 -24 -25 -21 -21 -14 -13 -7 0 -5 -1 6 3 -8 -6 -3 -2 -2 -4 1 -3 -14 -16 -20 -16 -18 -18 -16 -6 -6 -7 -8 -6 -8 -6 -5 9 10 14 10 14 -34 -35 -43 -37 -37 -41 -30 -24 -26 -27 -17 -26 -24 -26 -26 -24 -26 -24 -22 -21 -27 -28 LABOUR MARKET 2007 2008 2009 2008 2009 2010 2008 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 6 7 8 9 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 925.3 942.5 944.5 940.9 942.2 949.2 945.9 945.6 942.6 943.9 935.8 937.8 942.7 941.4 940.5 944.6 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)' 854.0 879.3 858.2 879.4 881.7 885.1 869.0 861.0 854.3 848.4 836.3 839.2 882.0 879.9 879.8 885.3 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 40.4 39.7 37.9 39.9 39.2 38.9 37.8 38.0 37.9 37.8 31.9 34.6 39.8 39.3 39.2 39.2 In industry, construction 321.9 330.4 306.9 331.2 333.0 330.4 317.4 309.3 304.0 296.8 290.9 289.2 332.6 332.5 332.5 333.9 Of which: in manufacturing 223.6 222.4 199.8 224.0 222.3 219.1 209.5 201.4 196.7 191.7 190.0 189.4 224.0 222.7 222.2 222.2 in construction 78.4 87.9 86.8 87.1 90.5 91.1 87.8 87.6 86.9 84.8 80.9 79.6 88.4 89.7 90.2 91.6 In services 491.6 509.1 513.4 508.3 509.4 515.9 513.8 513.7 512.4 513.7 513.5 515.3 509.6 508.1 508.1 512.2 Of which: in public administration 50.3 51.0 51.5 51.0 51.1 51.0 51.1 51.5 51.7 51.6 51.8 52.3 51.1 50.9 51.0 51.2 in education, health-services, social work 108.8 111.1 113.8 111.0 110.1 112.4 113.2 114.1 113.3 114.7 115.9 116.8 110.9 109.7 109.4 111.4 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 766.0 789.9 767.4 790.3 792.7 795.3 779.7 770.8 762.9 756.1 750.1 751.0 792.8 791.1 790.9 796.1 In enterprises and organisations 696.1 717.6 699.4 718.0 719.8 722.0 709.9 701.9 695.5 690.5 687.2 688.7 720.2 718.5 718.2 722.6 By those self-employed 69.9 72.3 67.9 72.2 73.0 73.2 69.8 68.8 67.4 65.7 62.9 62.3 72.6 72.7 72.7 73.5 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 87.9 89.4 90.8 89.2 88.9 89.8 89.3 90.3 91.4 92.2 86.2 88.2 89.2 88.8 88.9 89.2 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 71.3 63.2 86.4 61.4 60.5 64.1 76.9 84.6 88.3 95.6 99.4 98.6 60.7 61.6 60.7 59.3 Female 39.1 33.4 42.4 32.8 32.1 33.0 38.4 41.6 43.2 46.4 47.0 46.8 32.4 33.0 32.3 31.1 By age: under 26 11.9 9.1 13.3 8.4 7.7 10.0 12.2 13.1 12.8 15.2 14.7 13.5 8.1 8.1 7.8 7.3 aged over 50 22.2 21.9 26.2 21.9 21.7 21.6 24.1 25.6 26.9 28.3 29.6 30.3 21.8 21.9 21.7 21.4 Unskilled 28.0 25.4 34.1 24.6 24.3 25.8 31.2 33.6 34.8 36.6 38.2 37.1 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.3 For more than 1 year 36.5 32.3 31.5 32.5 31.9 31.0 31.0 30.4 31.1 33.4 38.1 41.8 32.2 32.1 31.8 31.6 Those receiving benefits 16.6 14.4 27.4 13.6 13.9 15.1 22.8 27.4 28.6 30.8 31.6 29.3 13.4 13.9 13.9 13.7 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 7.7 6.7 9.1 6.5 6.4 6.8 8.1 8.9 9.4 10.1 10.6 10.5 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.3 Male 6.2 5.6 8.3 5.4 5.4 5.8 7.3 8.1 8.5 9.3 10.1 9.9 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 Female 9.6 8.1 10.2 7.9 7.8 7.9 9.2 10.0 10.4 11.1 11.3 11.3 7.8 8.0 7.8 7.5 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE 21.5 13.7 -5.2 4.2 1.9 1.9 -0.8 -0.1 -3.5 -0.8 -5.5 1.7 2.0 -1.3 -0.9 4.1 New unemployed first-job seekers 14.7 12.5 17.0 1.8 1.9 6.5 3.2 2.6 3.0 8.1 2.9 2.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 Redundancies 52.5 53.0 90.5 10.7 12.5 17.4 24.8 22.5 19.9 23.2 19.9 16.6 3.6 4.6 3.4 4.5 Registered unemployed who found employment 49.1 41.7 48.6 9.7 9.9 9.6 9.5 11.8 14.2 13.1 14.2 12.8 2.9 2.3 3.1 4.5 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 28.0 26.1 28.5 6.3 5.9 7.4 5.2 6.5 6.9 9.9 6.3 6.9 1.7 2.0 1.6 2.3 Increase in number of work permits for foreigners 10.0 13.2 -9.6 5.9 4.9 -1.2 -1.5 -1.8 -2.7 -3.6 -1.6 -1.0 0.4 1.6 2.2 1.1 Retirements2 20.7 22.6 24.7 4.8 6.3 6.1 5.4 5.3 6.7 7.3 6.8 6.0 1.5 1.6 2.2 2.6 Others who found employment2 40.9 31.5 34.7 6.2 5.9 8.8 6.9 9.5 8.2 10.1 4.8 11.6 3.8 -0.4 -0.2 6.6 REGISTERED VACANCIES3 20.2 20.0 13.4 21.1 21.5 15.9 13.4 13.4 14.0 13.0 12.6 14.8 20.2 19.8 20.1 24.7 For a fixed term, in % 76.5 74.5 78.1 74.0 76.5 74.7 74.9 77.9 80.8 78.6 78.9 81.2 74.9 76.9 76.8 76.0 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 60.2 81.1 86.6 79.0 86.3 90.5 91.5 90.2 84.9 79.7 77.1 75.7 81.6 83.8 86.7 88.6 As % of labour force 6.5 8.6 9.2 8.4 9.2 9.5 9.7 9.5 9.0 8.4 8.2 8.1 8.7 8.9 9.2 9.4 NEW JOBS 160.0 162.7 111.4 41.0 42.7 38.1 27.5 27.3 28.2 28.3 23.6 25.1 12.5 12.7 10.4 19.6 Sources of data: SORS, PDII, ESS. Notes: 'In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. Data for previous years dating back to January 2000 have also been calculated according to the new methodology. ^Estimated by IMAD, based on data by PDII and ESS; 3according to ESS. 2008 2009 2010 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 950.7 950.3 946.5 946.2 945.9 945.7 946.1 945.3 945.6 944.1 941.6 942.1 945.0 945.5 941.3 935.7 935.8 935.8 938.6 937.3 937.5 888.1 886.9 880.3 872.2 868.7 866.0 863.2 860.8 859.1 855.6 853.5 853.8 850.4 850.0 844.7 836.1 836.0 836.9 839.3 838.9 839.3 38.9 38.9 38.8 37.8 37.8 37.8 38.0 38.0 38.0 37.9 37.9 37.9 37.9 37.8 37.7 31.9 31.9 31.9 34.6 34.6 34.7 333.7 331.5 325.9 320.1 317.4 314.7 311.8 309.1 307.1 305.3 303.9 302.8 298.8 297.6 294.0 291.5 290.6 290.7 289.9 289.2 288.6 221.3 219.8 216.3 211.8 209.6 207.0 203.6 201.2 199.2 197.8 196.5 195.9 192.5 192.1 190.6 190.0 189.9 190.0 189.7 189.4 189.0 92.2 91.5 89.5 88.3 87.7 87.5 87.8 87.5 87.5 87.2 86.9 86.5 86.0 85.2 83.3 81.5 80.7 80.5 80.1 79.5 79.3 515.5 516.5 515.6 514.4 513.6 513.5 513.5 513.7 514.0 512.4 511.7 513.1 513.7 514.6 512.9 512.6 513.5 514.4 514.7 515.1 516.1 51.1 51.1 50.8 51.2 51.0 51.3 51.4 51.5 51.6 51.7 51.7 51.8 51.6 51.7 51.6 51.6 51.8 52.0 52.3 52.3 52.4 112.0 112.5 112.6 112.8 113.2 113.7 114.0 114.2 114.1 113.0 112.6 114.2 114.6 114.9 114.7 115.4 115.9 116.4 116.7 116.8 116.9 798.5 797.0 790.2 783.0 779.5 776.6 773.3 770.5 768.5 764.5 762.1 762.1 758.3 757.7 752.4 749.7 749.8 750.9 750.9 750.8 751.3 724.6 723.4 718.1 712.6 709.7 707.3 704.3 701.7 699.8 696.5 694.6 695.2 691.8 691.8 687.8 686.4 686.9 688.3 688.5 688.6 689.1 74.0 73.5 72.2 70.4 69.7 69.3 69.0 68.8 68.7 68.0 67.5 66.8 66.5 65.9 64.6 63.3 62.8 62.7 62.4 62.2 62.1 89.6 89.9 90.0 89.2 89.3 89.5 90.0 90.3 90.6 91.1 91.4 91.7 92.1 92.3 92.2 86.4 86.3 86.0 88.4 88.0 88.1 62.6 63.4 66.2 73.9 77.2 79.7 82.8 84.5 86.5 88.5 88.1 88.4 94.6 95.4 96.7 99.6 99.8 98.9 99.3 98.4 98.2 32.7 32.6 33.7 37.2 38.5 39.5 40.8 41.5 42.5 43.5 43.2 43.0 46.3 46.5 46.5 47.2 47.0 46.6 47.0 46.7 46.8 9.8 9.9 10.2 11.7 12.3 12.7 13.2 13.1 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.2 15.5 15.1 14.8 15.0 14.7 14.3 14.1 13.4 13.0 21.4 21.5 21.9 23.6 24.1 24.5 25.1 25.7 26.1 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.8 28.3 28.7 29.5 29.7 29.7 30.1 30.3 30.5 24.9 25.5 27.0 30.1 31.4 32.2 33.0 33.5 34.2 34.7 34.7 35.0 36.1 36.4 37.2 38.3 38.4 37.9 37.6 37.1 36.7 31.4 30.9 30.8 31.2 31.0 30.7 30.4 30.3 30.5 30.7 31.0 31.7 32.5 33.3 34.4 36.9 37.9 39.4 40.6 41.8 42.9 14.1 14.4 16.8 20.9 22.8 24.5 25.9 27.6 28.7 28.9 28.5 28.3 30.8 30.3 31.2 32.2 31.7 30.9 29.9 29.2 28.9 6.6 6.7 7.0 7.8 8.2 8.4 8.8 8.9 9.1 9.4 9.4 9.4 10.0 10.1 10.3 10.6 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.5 5.6 5.7 6.1 6.9 7.3 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.5 8.6 9.1 9.3 9.6 10.0 10.1 10.0 10.0 9.9 9.8 7.9 7.9 8.1 9.0 9.3 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.4 10.4 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.3 11.2 11.3 6.1 -0.5 -3.8 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.3 -0.7 0.3 -1.5 -2.5 0.6 2.9 0.4 -4.1 -5.7 0.2 0.0 2.8 -1.3 0.2 4.6 1.2 0.8 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.5 5.9 1.3 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.8 5.2 5.5 6.6 10.4 6.9 7.5 8.2 7.4 7.0 7.3 5.5 7.2 8.5 7.9 6.8 8.6 5.4 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.4 4.0 3.2 2.4 3.2 2.7 3.6 3.7 4.3 3.9 4.0 4.6 5.5 4.4 4.8 3.9 5.0 4.0 5.1 3.9 4.7 4.2 2.5 2.7 2.2 0.7 1.9 2.5 2.4 2.2 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.8 3.8 3.6 2.5 1.7 2.0 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.2 -0.1 -2.4 -0.1 0.2 -1.7 -0.5 -1.2 -0.1 -1.0 -1.5 -0.2 -1.9 -1.3 -0.4 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.7 0.0 2.3 2.0 1.8 2.3 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.4 2.4 2.9 2.9 2.3 2.1 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.1 1.7 4.6 2.7 1.4 1.2 1.7 4.0 3.7 3.1 2.7 1.7 2.1 4.4 5.1 5.7 -0.7 -2.2 3.6 3.4 6.2 2.6 2.8 19.7 15.7 12.3 13.7 12.2 14.2 12.0 13.9 14.5 14.7 12.3 14.9 15.7 11.7 11.6 12.7 11.7 13.5 14.5 13.7 16.1 74.9 75.6 73.1 72.0 75.0 77.5 77.2 77.8 78.7 80.0 82.0 80.7 78.2 80.1 77.7 77.2 79.9 79.7 82.2 81.8 79.8 90.3 90.4 90.7 90.7 91.2 92.6 92.1 90.6 87.8 86.6 84.7 83.4 81.1 79.6 78.4 77.6 77.2 76.5 76.3 75.6 75.2 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.3 9.2 9.0 8.9 8.6 8.4 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.0 17.8 11.4 8.9 10.2 8.1 9.3 10.0 8.8 8.5 8.7 6.8 12.6 11.9 8.9 7.6 8.9 7.0 7.7 8.9 7.8 8.4 WAGES AND INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS 2007 2008 2009 2008 2009 2010 2008 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 3 4 5 6 7 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, y-o-y growth rates, % Activity - Total 5.9 8.3 3.4 8.6 9.9 7.1 5.5 4.6 2.3 1.7 3.7 4.3 8.0 9.5 7.6 8.8 8.7 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 8.3 9.1 -0.2 9.3 10.8 6.7 1.2 1.6 -0.5 -2.9 3.3 5.2 6.7 10.3 9.7 7.9 13.5 B Mining and quarrying 6.4 13.4 0.9 13.8 16.0 14.8 5.6 2.4 1.6 -4.9 3.4 4.7 13.3 11.8 17.0 12.5 17.3 C Manufacturing 7.0 7.5 0.8 9.7 9.3 3.4 0.0 -0.5 0.4 3.7 10.1 10.0 8.5 11.3 8.4 9.6 11.0 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 6.2 9.5 3.8 10.1 9.8 8.8 7.9 7.8 5.1 -3.2 4.7 2.4 9.3 13.2 9.6 7.8 15.3 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 7.1 7.8 2.0 9.1 9.0 5.2 4.2 3.2 1.2 0.1 2.7 3.0 8.1 10.7 6.8 9.8 10.5 F Constrution 6.6 7.5 1.0 9.6 9.1 4.3 1.2 1.0 1.6 0.9 2.9 5.8 6.7 11.9 7.5 9.5 10.0 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 7.6 7.7 1.9 9.0 8.8 6.1 4.4 2.3 1.2 0.1 2.6 4.1 7.1 10.0 8.0 8.9 9.1 H Transportation and storage 6.0 8.4 0.7 8.5 10.4 6.6 2.3 2.1 0.5 -1.4 1.1 1.2 8.6 8.3 7.0 10.2 7.8 I Accommodation and food service activities 5.3 8.3 1.6 9.6 10.0 4.9 3.4 1.7 0.6 1.0 2.8 4.2 7.9 9.5 10.3 8.9 10.3 J Information and communication 5.7 7.3 1.4 7.8 8.7 6.2 3.7 3.1 0.8 -1.6 1.0 2.5 10.5 8.9 6.1 8.3 7.9 K Financial and insurance activities 7.4 6.0 -0.7 8.8 8.2 0.0 2.0 -3.8 0.3 -0.5 1.2 3.2 10.6 11.8 6.4 8.5 7.1 L Real estate activities 7.0 6.0 1.9 8.6 5.3 3.6 1.6 0.0 1.8 4.5 2.6 5.3 5.8 10.1 8.3 7.5 4.7 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 7.0 8.4 2.1 8.6 9.1 6.4 4.0 3.3 1.5 0.0 1.6 1.8 9.3 8.7 7.9 9.2 9.9 N Administrative and support service activities 7.5 9.6 1.8 11.4 10.2 8.0 6.6 2.1 -0.2 -0.6 2.5 4.3 7.7 10.8 11.2 12.2 11.1 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 5.1 12.2 5.9 10.8 13.2 13.7 11.5 9.8 2.5 0.5 -1.9 -1.1 12.0 12.0 10.0 10.4 7.6 P Education 3.9 7.0 3.6 5.8 7.7 9.0 6.9 6.1 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.7 5.6 5.7 5.7 6.1 5.0 Q Human health and social work activities 3.1 12.0 12.0 4.3 16.8 21.0 21.4 22.6 5.5 1.4 -0.4 -1.0 6.1 3.2 3.8 6.0 4.6 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 3.6 5.3 3.9 5.8 8.3 5.1 7.0 5.7 2.2 0.9 0.7 1.4 -2.8 3.9 6.9 6.6 4.1 S Other service activities 3.3 8.2 1.3 8.6 8.5 8.8 4.1 1.0 0.7 0.0 3.2 4.9 6.9 10.3 8.8 6.7 9.0 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate,1 nominal 0.8 0.5 0.4 1.1 0.4 -1.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 1.8 -0.3 -1.9 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.8 Real (relative consumer prices) 2.3 2.8 0.7 4.2 2.6 -0.1 0.4 0.0 0.2 2.3 -0.3 -1.3 4.7 4.7 3.9 3.9 3.5 Real (relative producer prices)2 2.2 0.8 2.8 1.0 -0.2 1.1 3.0 3.4 3.7 1.4 -2.4 -3.3 1.4 2.2 0.9 0.0 -0.2 USD/EUR 1.371 1.471 1.393 1.562 1.504 1.317 1.302 1.362 1.431 1.478 1.384 1.273 1.553 1.575 1.556 1.555 1.577 Sources of data: SORS, AP, BS, OECD Main Economic Indicators, calculations IMAD. Notes: "Change of methodology: the calculation of domestic currency's effective exchange rate includes the currencies/prices of Slovenia's 17 trading partners (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Italy, France, Netherlands, Spain, Denmark, United Kingdom, Sweden, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, USA, Switzerland, Japan); weights are the shares of individual trading partners in Slovenian exports and imports of goods within manufacturing (5-8 SITC) in 2001-2003; exports are double weighted; a rise in the index value indicates an appreciation of domestic currency and vice versa. ^Producer prices in manufacturing activities 2008 2009 2010 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 9.8 11.2 9.2 3.9 8.6 6.8 4.2 5.3 5.1 4.1 4.7 3.8 0.7 2.4 1.7 1.3 2.1 2.2 3.6 5.2 4.2 4.2 4.4 6.3 12.9 11.3 -0.1 10.2 1.1 -3.3 6.1 2.0 -1.8 4.7 -0.4 -0.3 -0.7 -5.5 -0.9 -2.5 1.1 3.0 5.7 5.6 4.3 5.6 10.0 20.7 39.0 -4.7 16.0 10.1 5.3 1.7 4.3 -5.9 9.4 2.3 6.2 -3.5 -20.3 16.1 -8.7 2.0 3.5 4.7 1.4 14.0 -0.8 6.4 10.8 6.7 -1.4 5.7 0.1 -0.5 0.4 -0.4 -1.3 0.1 0.1 -0.6 1.6 1.9 4.6 4.3 6.7 8.3 15.2 10.7 10.1 9.4 8.3 6.2 25.2 2.2 3.2 9.4 6.1 8.1 7.6 5.5 10.3 5.6 2.9 6.7 -10.4 -8.6 12.1 3.5 6.6 4.3 3.3 0.8 3.0 5.5 11.3 14.0 -1.0 4.8 4.4 3.6 4.6 3.5 1.0 5.2 1.6 1.2 0.9 -3.3 2.1 1.1 0.0 3.0 5.1 3.5 3.6 2.0 6.0 11.3 7.3 -1.0 7.2 1.7 -0.6 2.5 0.5 -0.9 3.4 2.9 0.6 1.4 -1.4 1.1 2.9 1.0 2.9 4.6 7.2 5.8 4.5 7.0 10.2 8.0 3.9 6.6 6.1 3.5 3.6 1.5 2.9 2.4 1.6 1.5 0.6 0.4 -0.8 0.6 0.3 2.4 5.2 4.2 4.0 4.1 13.1 10.2 7.1 7.5 5.2 3.9 2.4 0.6 2.9 2.2 1.1 2.0 -4.8 4.4 -1.0 -3.3 0.5 -1.5 1.8 3.2 1.5 1.6 0.5 9.0 10.7 7.5 2.0 5.4 3.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 0.4 1.3 1.4 0.6 -0.2 -0.3 3.2 0.0 2.2 1.8 4.4 3.7 4.2 4.6 8.1 10.3 7.8 5.5 5.4 6.9 1.8 2.5 3.4 2.5 3.4 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.7 -3.6 -1.6 0.0 1.6 1.5 2.3 3.1 2.1 6.3 11.4 1.2 -6.3 8.1 3.8 0.6 1.7 -4.2 -5.4 -1.6 2.0 0.5 -1.7 6.3 -1.8 -5.1 1.0 1.6 1.1 2.5 -0.6 7.6 4.6 6.7 4.5 1.5 5.0 2.9 1.4 0.6 1.3 -0.6 -0.5 1.9 1.4 2.0 4.2 5.3 4.0 1.8 3.3 2.7 3.7 3.9 8.4 7.3 10.3 9.3 1.8 8.8 3.1 4.3 4.7 4.6 2.2 3.3 2.0 1.1 1.3 0.4 0.6 -0.9 1.0 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.5 2.1 8.3 11.2 8.4 8.6 7.1 9.1 5.1 5.5 3.2 1.6 1.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -1.0 -1.8 1.1 -1.2 4.1 4.7 5.1 4.1 3.9 18.8 13.3 12.9 16.0 12.3 15.2 8.8 10.7 11.0 10.0 8.4 5.3 -0.3 2.6 1.1 -2.0 2.4 -1.1 -1.5 -3.0 -2.1 -0.6 -0.5 10.9 7.3 8.0 9.4 9.6 9.3 4.2 7.3 6.6 6.0 5.7 2.9 -1.7 2.6 1.8 0.0 -0.1 0.5 0.5 -0.4 0.2 1.0 1.0 24.5 21.5 21.3 20.5 21.4 25.5 18.9 20.0 26.5 22.2 19.3 16.0 0.4 1.7 2.4 0.8 1.0 -1.6 1.2 -0.6 -2.3 -0.2 -0.4 11.3 9.4 10.7 -3.2 9.1 8.2 6.4 6.3 7.2 6.0 4.0 5.8 0.1 1.1 3.2 -0.5 -0.1 0.5 0.6 1.0 2.1 1.3 0.7 8.0 8.3 9.0 6.3 11.3 2.6 5.3 4.3 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.3 -0.4 -0.4 0.6 3.4 2.2 4.1 6.1 3.9 4.7 0.6 -0.1 -1.3 -1.7 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.6 -0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.9 2.2 2.3 0.9 0.4 -0.3 -1.1 -1.1 -1.9 -2.7 2.6 1.6 0.3 -0.7 0.0 -0.1 0.5 0.8 -0.2 0.1 0.3 -0.4 0.2 0.9 2.1 3.3 1.5 0.5 -0.1 -1.1 -0.4 -1.4 -2.2 0.3 -0.6 -0.6 0.8 3.2 2.8 2.8 3.5 2.9 3.2 4.0 4.2 3.1 3.8 3.8 1.6 -1.0 -1.9 -2.1 -3.2 -3.8 -2.9 -3.2 1.498 1.437 1.332 1.273 1.345 1.324 1.279 1.305 1.319 1.365 1.402 1.409 1.427 1.456 1.482 1.491 1.461 1.427 1.369 1.357 1.341 1.257 1.221 PRICES 2007 2008 2008 2009 2010 2008 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 5 6 7 8 9 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 3.6 5.7 0.9 6.6 6.1 3.3 1.8 0.7 -0.2 1.1 1.4 2.1 6.4 7.0 6.9 6.0 5.5 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 7.8 10.1 0.6 12.0 9.8 4.9 3.2 0.9 -0.7 -1.0 -1.4 0.7 12.1 11.6 12.2 10.1 7.2 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 6.5 3.2 6.7 5.0 0.7 2.1 3.0 7.2 8.5 7.9 7.1 6.5 5.0 5.1 -0.2 0.5 1.8 Clothing and footwear 2.1 4.4 -0.6 5.2 2.1 5.2 1.8 1.2 -2.2 -3.0 -5.0 -1.9 4.6 4.1 0.8 1.7 3.7 Housing, water, electricity, gas 2.6 9.7 -0.3 11.4 11.5 5.3 1.7 -2.1 -3.5 3.0 8.3 11.3 11.4 13.4 13.6 10.4 10.5 Furnishings, household equipment 4.5 5.8 4.0 5.5 6.5 6.7 6.1 4.5 3.5 1.9 1.3 0.8 5.7 5.2 5.9 6.4 7.3 Medical, pharmaceutical products 1.1 2.9 4.0 1.7 4.9 5.8 8.7 5.3 1.4 0.7 -0.6 0.6 1.7 1.9 4.5 5.0 5.1 Transport 0.3 1.9 -3.0 2.9 4.1 -2.2 -3.7 -4.5 -4.1 0.6 1.2 -0.1 2.4 4.4 4.9 3.7 3.7 Communications 0.3 0.6 -4.1 1.9 0.1 -1.7 -4.3 -4.7 -4.3 -3.2 0.0 1.4 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.5 -0.9 Recreation and culture 3.6 4.4 3.0 5.0 4.8 3.2 3.0 3.6 2.8 2.5 1.2 0.4 4.4 5.3 5.6 4.9 4.0 Education 1.9 5.2 3.4 5.4 4.8 6.1 5.1 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.0 1.9 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 5.0 Catering services 7.3 9.6 4.4 10.0 10.4 8.7 6.3 4.9 4.0 2.7 1.9 1.9 9.9 10.1 10.7 10.4 10.0 Miscellaneous goods & services 3.6 3.9 3.8 4.5 3.8 3.4 3.8 3.3 4.4 3.9 2.3 2.0 4.4 4.5 4.0 3.7 3.6 HCPI 3.8 5.5 0.9 6.4 6.2 3.1 1.7 0.6 -0.2 1.4 1.7 2.4 6.2 6.8 6.9 6.0 5.6 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) 2.6 4.6 1.9 4.9 4.7 4.0 3.1 2.6 1.2 0.7 0.0 0.4 4.9 4.7 5.1 4.7 4.5 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total 4.2 3.8 -1.3 3.7 5.1 3.2 1.1 -1.5 -3.1 -1.8 -1.0 2.3 3.5 4.4 4.9 5.5 4.8 Domestic market 5.5 5.6 -0.4 6.1 6.2 4.2 1.5 -0.4 -1.5 -1.1 0.2 2.0 6.1 5.9 6.3 6.7 5.7 Non-domestic market 3.0 2.2 -2.2 1.5 3.9 2.3 0.8 -2.6 -4.5 -2.5 -2.1 2.6 1.1 2.8 3.6 4.3 4.0 euro area 5.1 2.2 -3.5 1.7 4.2 1.5 -0.6 -4.5 -6.0 -3.0 -2.4 2.5 0.9 3.7 4.1 4.8 3.8 non-euro area -0.5 2.1 0.3 1.0 3.4 3.9 3.5 1.1 -1.7 -1.6 -1.6 2.7 1.3 1.1 2.5 3.3 4.3 Import price indices 4.0 1.3 -3.3 0.3 3.8 1.4 -2.1 -4.6 -4.7 -1.8 4.0 8.8 0.5 0.8 3.5 3.3 4.7 PRICE CONTROL,1 y-o-y growth rates, % Energy prices 0.6 12.4 -12.3 16.9 21.1 -1.2 -12.9 -17.7 -17.3 0.4 16.1 18.8 15.5 23.2 24.8 20.0 18.4 Oil products -0.9 11.7 -12.0 17.4 21.1 -5.7 -16.3 -18.9 -15.9 6.2 21.9 20.3 15.3 24.1 25.5 20.0 17.7 Basic utilities -2.3 0.6 3.6 1.3 -1.3 1.1 1.7 0.9 0.8 10.8 - - 1.3 1.3 1.3 -5.7 0.7 Transport & communications 0.6 -0.4 0.6 0.6 -1.3 -1.3 -1.2 -1.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 0.6 0.6 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 Other controlled prices 2.9 1.8 4.9 1.7 1.7 2.4 2.4 6.8 5.6 4.9 4.9 0.4 1.9 1.9 1.1 1.6 2.4 Direct control - total 3.1 8.6 -6.9 11.7 13.7 -0.2 -7.8 -10.9 -10.9 2.9 14.1 16.1 10.8 15.7 16.3 12.2 12.4 Source of data: SORS, calculations and estimates IMAD. Note: 1 the structure of groups varies, data published are not directly comparable to those published previously. The electricity market was liberalized on 1 July 2007. Data from July 2007 onwards are not comparable. Since July 2009, formation of prices for utility services is no longer under government control.. 2008 2009 2010 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 4.9 3.1 2.1 1.6 2.1 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 -0.6 0.0 -0.1 0.0 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.4 2.3 2.1 1.9 2.1 5.3 5.6 3.8 3.5 3.1 3.0 2.0 0.6 0.0 -1.3 -0.4 -0.4 -1.2 -0.8 -1.1 -2.4 -1.2 -0.7 -0.1 0.4 1.7 2.8 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.7 4.0 4.3 8.4 9.0 9.1 8.6 7.7 7.7 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.6 5.9 9.9 5.1 4.5 5.2 6.1 4.6 4.8 2.3 0.6 2.3 0.5 1.9 1.1 -1.3 -1.7 -3.6 -2.7 -2.8 -3.4 -5.9 -5.7 -3.6 -0.9 -2.4 -2.3 -2.1 9.0 4.8 2.4 0.8 3.0 1.2 0.1 -2.3 -4.0 -4.9 -3.5 -2.2 -1.7 4.5 6.3 7.6 8.4 8.9 10.7 11.6 11.7 12.4 7.0 6.7 6.5 6.5 6.7 5.1 4.7 4.2 4.5 4.0 4.0 2.5 2.1 2.2 1.5 1.8 1.6 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.5 5.2 5.4 6.7 9.5 9.8 6.9 5.4 5.5 5.1 1.9 1.6 0.7 0.6 1.3 0.3 -0.3 -0.7 -0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 2.8 2.6 -3.6 -5.4 -5.1 -2.5 -3.6 -3.5 -4.7 -5.2 -5.6 -3.5 -3.1 -2.8 1.9 2.9 2.3 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.4 -1.5 -1.2 -0.9 0.0 -4.3 -3.7 -4.7 -4.6 -5.2 -4.4 -4.4 -4.1 -4.2 -4.6 -3.7 -4.0 -1.9 -0.6 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.6 -0.3 2.8 3.2 3.6 2.8 2.8 3.4 3.3 3.6 4.1 3.0 2.7 2.7 3.1 2.7 1.7 1.7 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.6 -0.2 -0.6 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.3 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.4 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 9.7 8.8 7.7 6.5 6.3 6.0 5.1 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.2 3.3 3.1 2.3 2.6 2.0 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.3 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.7 4.2 3.3 3.1 3.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 3.6 3.3 2.3 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.0 0.7 4.8 2.9 1.8 1.4 2.1 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.2 -0.6 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.7 2.4 2.1 2.3 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.2 2.8 3.1 2.6 2.6 2.6 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 4.2 3.3 2.2 1.9 1.1 0.3 -0.5 -1.6 -2.4 -3.0 -3.3 -2.8 -2.4 -1.9 -1.2 -1.4 -1.2 -0.2 1.0 2.9 3.0 3.4 5.0 4.0 3.5 2.3 1.2 0.8 0.2 -0.7 -0.7 -1.3 -1.7 -1.6 -1.4 -1.1 -0.7 -0.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 3.3 2.7 1.0 1.5 1.0 -0.1 -1.2 -2.5 -4.0 -4.7 -4.9 -4.0 -3.2 -2.6 -1.7 -2.8 -2.5 -0.9 1.3 3.2 3.3 4.2 3.1 1.4 0.1 0.2 -0.3 -1.7 -3.1 -4.1 -6.2 -6.7 -6.4 -4.8 -3.9 -2.8 -2.3 -3.0 -3.1 -1.0 1.3 3.2 3.1 4.5 3.9 5.1 2.7 4.2 3.5 2.9 2.5 0.5 0.2 -0.6 -2.0 -2.4 -1.9 -2.3 -0.6 -2.4 -1.5 -0.8 1.4 3.2 3.6 3.4 3.7 1.6 -1.0 -2.4 -1.3 -2.7 -3.8 -4.8 -5.2 -4.7 -5.0 -4.5 -3.7 -2.1 0.4 3.3 3.2 5.4 8.3 9.4 8.7 7.6 14.1 -4.3 -12.7 -15.0 -8.9 -14.6 -14.5 -18.0 -20.1 -21.5 -16.3 -13.9 -12.6 3.8 13.0 16.9 13.9 17.5 20.1 20.5 15.8 17.4 12.2 -9.4 -18.9 -19.5 -11.2 -17.9 -15.6 -19.4 -21.2 -20.9 -14.8 -11.5 -9.4 10.3 21.9 24.4 18.6 22.8 22.7 22.8 15.6 15.2 0.7 0.8 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 16.3 15.4 - - - - - - - -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 1.1 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 6.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 9.7 -2.2 -7.8 -9.4 -5.0 -9.0 -8.6 -11.2 -12.9 -13.7 -10.2 -8.6 -7.6 6.0 11.8 14.6 12.6 15.2 16.7 17.2 14.4 15.5 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2007 2008 2009 2008 2009 2010 2008 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 6 7 8 9 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, in EUR m Current account -1,646 -2,489 -526 -544 -698 -757 -304 64 -235 -51 -119 -40 -191 -367 -198 -132 Goods1 -1,666 -2,650 -699 -668 -751 -743 -156 -29 -228 -286 -125 -156 -223 -263 -298 -190 Exports 19,798 20,048 16,167 5,349 5,038 4,577 3,934 4,064 3,950 4,219 4,213 4,726 1,767 1,809 1,339 1,891 Imports 21,464 22,698 16,866 6,017 5,789 5,320 4,090 4,093 4,178 4,505 4,339 4,882 1,990 2,071 1,637 2,080 Services 1,047 1,493 1,114 460 413 304 239 311 296 269 217 298 146 97 142 174 Exports 4,145 5,043 4,301 1,299 1,475 1,219 918 1,049 1,272 1,061 911 1,086 443 513 486 476 Imports 3,098 3,549 3,187 839 1,062 915 679 738 977 793 695 788 297 417 344 302 Income -789 -1,030 -782 -277 -357 -231 -230 -200 -241 -112 -157 -149 -112 -205 -55 -97 Receipts 1,169 1,261 665 315 335 342 131 176 138 220 207 219 109 108 116 110 Expenditure 1,957 2,292 1,447 592 691 573 361 376 378 332 364 368 221 314 171 207 Current transfers -239 -302 -159 -59 -4 -87 -158 -18 -62 79 -53 -33 -1 4 13 -20 Receipts 941 870 957 215 254 238 141 266 176 374 258 211 103 73 115 66 Expenditure 1,180 1,172 1,116 274 257 325 299 283 238 296 312 244 104 69 102 86 Capital and financial account 1,920 2,545 220 763 631 703 -25 -57 129 173 -66 483 210 416 210 6 Capital account -52 -25 -9 7 -4 -26 -4 41 -4 -42 -120 2 2 -5 1 1 Financial account 1,972 2,571 230 756 635 729 -20 -98 133 214 54 482 208 420 209 5 Direct investment -210 381 -539 -123 82 299 3 -415 -46 -81 -44 106 -78 115 56 -90 Domestic abroad -1,317 -949 -121 -439 -248 -132 104 -260 35 1 -122 33 -163 -116 -35 -98 Foreign in Slovenia 1,106 1,329 -419 317 330 431 -100 -155 -81 -82 78 74 85 231 91 8 Portfolio investment -2,255 572 4,625 -1,155 166 1,258 874 1,151 2,293 307 1,103 502 -243 134 -207 239 Financial derivatives -15 46 -2 4 5 6 -23 12 12 -2 -22 -35 1 2 2 2 Other investment 4,313 1,551 -4,021 1,949 380 -855 -988 -891 -2,112 -29 -1,045 -41 549 242 254 -116 Assets -4,741 -427 -273 -185 434 300 746 -161 -1,053 194 277 -605 -765 131 -63 366 Commercial credits -400 -142 417 -170 -9 554 62 166 -37 227 -227 -214 -47 16 146 -171 Loans -1,895 -325 -29 -442 158 -91 40 -91 -23 45 -357 514 -254 254 -377 280 Currency and deposits -2,454 35 -587 387 304 -155 638 -239 -1,004 18 863 -899 -467 -144 170 279 Other assets 7 4 -75 40 -19 -8 7 2 12 -96 -2 -7 3 5 -2 -22 Liabilities 9,054 1,978 -3,747 2,134 -54 -1,156 -1,735 -730 -1,059 -223 -1,322 564 1,314 111 317 -482 Commercial credits 499 -73 -459 309 -25 -536 -301 -105 25 -78 98 274 -4 32 -117 59 Loans 3,841 1,869 -2,941 1,472 242 -489 -571 -1,331 -73 -966 -415 -82 1,133 112 228 -98 Deposits 4,727 190 -318 346 -272 -137 -858 700 -983 822 -1,079 424 180 -40 206 -438 Other liabilities -13 -7 -29 7 2 6 -5 6 -28 -2 73 -51 5 6 0 -5 International reserves2 140 21 167 80 1 21 114 46 -13 20 62 -50 -21 -73 104 -30 Statistical error -273 -56 305 -219 67 54 329 -7 106 -122 185 -443 -20 -49 -11 127 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods 1,936 2,241 1,783 576 598 544 442 461 407 473 405 N/A 191 203 152 243 Intermediate goods 10,436 10,760 8,090 2,893 2,730 2,385 1,977 1,996 2,025 2,093 2,238 N/A 953 976 756 998 Consumer goods 7,035 6,808 6,144 1,817 1,648 1,590 1,474 1,568 1,482 1,620 1,538 N/A 603 607 411 629 Import of investment goods 3,031 3,441 2,288 928 862 878 583 551 521 633 448 N/A 300 294 226 342 Intermediate goods 12,875 13,735 9,823 3,668 3,543 3,107 2,381 2,335 2,458 2,649 2,682 N/A 1,221 1,291 1,029 1,222 Consumer goods 5,601 5,870 5,004 1,520 1,475 1,416 1,195 1,262 1,255 1,292 1,263 N/A 500 520 404 551 Sources of data: BS, SORS. Notes: 1exports and imports (F.O.B.) include also the adjustment for exports and imports of goods by ITRS and duty-free shops reports; 2 reserve assets of the BS. 2008 2009 2010 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 -255 -156 -346 -75 -137 -92 4 18 42 -84 -136 -15 -55 87 -83 -25 -132 38 -55 -90 104 -266 -180 -297 -48 -37 -71 -67 -7 45 -50 -161 -17 -50 -79 -158 -15 -87 -23 -74 -119 37 1,841 1,532 1,204 1,214 1,293 1,427 1,304 1,333 1,427 1,401 1,065 1,484 1,499 1,471 1,248 1,233 1,330 1,651 1,475 1,571 1,680 2,107 1,711 1,501 1,262 1,330 1,498 1,371 1,340 1,382 1,451 1,226 1,501 1,549 1,550 1,406 1,248 1,417 1,674 1,549 1,690 1,643 141 110 53 92 60 87 103 112 96 59 125 111 114 85 70 74 63 80 88 102 108 447 378 394 307 278 334 344 348 357 436 447 389 367 322 373 293 281 337 348 356 382 306 268 341 215 218 246 241 236 261 376 322 278 253 237 303 219 218 257 259 254 274 -90 -74 -67 -71 -82 -76 -56 -77 -67 -96 -66 -79 -63 17 -65 -56 -55 -45 -54 -50 -45 109 107 126 48 42 41 51 55 69 51 43 44 45 107 69 66 64 77 67 75 76 199 181 193 119 124 118 107 132 137 146 109 123 108 90 134 122 120 122 122 125 121 -40 -12 -35 -48 -78 -32 24 -11 -31 2 -35 -30 -55 64 70 -27 -52 26 -15 -23 4 61 87 90 35 45 61 116 80 69 80 53 43 60 148 166 63 83 112 54 81 77 101 99 125 83 124 93 92 90 101 77 87 73 116 83 96 91 135 86 68 103 73 -117 291 529 188 -96 -117 15 98 -170 104 -66 92 95 -7 85 60 84 -210 149 24 310 5 41 -72 -7 -2 5 -2 -1 45 -3 -2 1 1 25 -67 -7 -2 -110 2 -3 3 -122 251 601 196 -95 -121 18 99 -215 106 -64 91 94 -32 153 68 86 -100 147 27 307 -29 93 235 148 -14 -132 -100 -255 -61 -40 27 -34 -17 -89 25 26 -45 -25 -4 28 82 -82 -10 -40 129 -7 -18 -74 -189 3 26 24 -15 -25 36 -10 -7 -77 -38 -23 25 31 53 103 275 20 -6 -114 -26 -66 -64 -65 3 -18 8 -126 36 33 31 14 19 3 51 387 658 213 410 559 -95 1,005 263 -118 864 -216 1,644 -14 -71 392 1,357 -449 195 606 -201 97 2 2 2 -10 -13 0 4 8 -1 -2 6 8 3 3 -7 -2 -2 -19 -1 -11 -23 -515 -486 145 -349 -713 74 -888 20 -24 -663 90 -1,539 115 114 -258 -1,365 575 -255 -486 271 174 -434 18 717 73 603 70 -152 -730 721 -656 719 -1,116 219 -349 323 158 71 48 2 -635 27 -43 131 466 149 -26 -62 70 141 -45 -6 85 -117 -68 -31 326 -4 -40 -184 -34 -91 -89 -286 73 122 -185 206 19 48 -62 -77 -58 72 -37 -8 48 5 -54 30 -333 430 18 66 -115 -191 151 98 413 127 -269 -808 838 -592 556 -968 292 -367 93 222 76 565 -401 -548 51 9 5 -22 11 10 -15 -1 -2 5 0 6 6 3 2 -100 -6 5 -1 7 -13 -1 -80 -504 -572 -422 -1,316 4 -736 751 -745 -7 -629 -423 -104 462 -581 -1,523 503 -303 -487 906 146 -66 -182 -288 -299 -33 30 -48 -32 -25 20 -110 116 88 80 -246 -83 67 115 58 131 86 37 -483 -43 -125 18 -464 -328 349 -1,353 12 -30 -55 -159 32 -839 -40 -18 -356 -276 327 -133 -51 159 -244 5 -1,303 441 -361 434 627 -10 -491 -482 -36 358 500 -1,394 448 -133 -206 455 174 0 3 3 -3 2 -4 2 -1 5 -30 3 -2 2 -8 4 -6 7 71 -63 -8 19 33 -17 5 -4 86 31 -5 62 -11 -53 29 12 8 11 1 51 7 4 32 -60 -23 372 -135 -184 -113 234 209 -19 -115 128 -20 202 -77 -40 -79 -3 -36 48 173 -94 66 -415 201 185 158 128 152 162 171 141 149 147 110 150 167 154 151 117 120 168 143 155 N/A 981 816 589 644 637 695 646 652 698 722 552 751 782 730 581 660 724 853 805 856 N/A 638 511 441 429 491 555 478 524 567 517 392 572 540 578 502 447 475 616 517 548 N/A 289 279 310 172 161 249 190 187 175 170 154 197 218 208 207 121 148 180 211 212 N/A 1,309 1,017 782 758 803 820 762 759 814 861 711 886 913 937 799 795 879 1,008 952 1,058 N/A 544 441 431 353 389 453 437 416 408 434 381 441 447 433 413 357 390 516 418 454 N/A MONETARY INDICATORS AND INTEREST RATES 2007 2008 2009 2008 2009 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 67 68 160 66 66 66 65 66 66 67 69 69 68 69 Central government (S. 1311) 2,367 2,162 3497 2,392 2,123 2,162 2,052 2,030 2,069 2,046 2,058 2,176 2,162 2,704 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 118 212 376 124 128 129 133 136 143 178 184 181 212 223 Households (S. 14, 15) 6,818 7,827 8413 7,133 7,235 7,318 7,409 7,521 7,603 7,705 7,857 7,785 7,827 7,831 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 18,105 21,149 21682 18,938 19,351 19,616 20,064 20,404 20,619 20,872 21,134 21,092 21,149 21,346 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 2,305 2,815 2703 2,494 2,558 2,568 2,736 2,726 2,729 2,798 2,815 2,845 2,815 2,815 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 2,401 3,666 5301 2,444 2,624 2,375 2,386 2,403 2,400 2,737 2,965 2,963 3,666 3,887 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 26,555 32,113 34730 27,768 28,503 28,871 29,380 29,805 30,108 30,888 31,444 31,594 32,113 32,388 In foreign currency 1,990 2,370 1895 2,280 2,276 2,259 2,263 2,228 2,271 2,344 2,512 2,371 2,370 2,372 Securities, total 3,570 3,346 5348 3,477 3,239 3,038 3,137 3,188 3,184 3,104 3,059 3,077 3,346 4,046 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, l n EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 20,029 23,129 27967 20,779 20,774 20,613 21,144 21,341 21,465 21,992 22,177 22,385 23,129 23,563 Overnight 6,887 6,605 7200 6,787 6,711 6,841 7,071 6,744 6,703 6,918 6,666 6,577 6,605 6,415 With agreed maturity -short-term 8,913 10,971 9766 9,745 9,734 9,292 9,439 9,936 9,929 10,038 10,530 10,659 10,971 11,246 With agreed maturity -long-term 2,857 4,157 9703 2,814 2,926 3,046 3,170 3,241 3,378 3,519 3,555 3,727 4,157 4,542 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 1,372 1,396 1298 1,433 1,403 1,434 1,464 1,420 1,455 1,517 1,426 1,422 1,396 1,360 Deposits in foreign currency, total 559 490 433 520 529 527 488 491 502 493 537 551 490 504 Overnight 218 215 237 226 222 225 218 220 228 218 244 247 215 242 With agreed maturity -short-term 248 198 123 220 224 224 196 192 190 196 213 227 198 181 With agreed maturity -long-term 56 41 45 45 45 42 42 43 42 43 44 42 41 42 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 37 36 27 29 38 36 32 36 42 36 36 35 36 39 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.36 0.46 0.28 0.41 0.43 0.46 0.46 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.51 0.52 0.43 0.48 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 3.36 4.30 2.51 4.03 4.14 4.20 4.30 4.40 4.39 4.53 4.65 4.56 4.45 4.08 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 5.80 6.77 6.43 6.61 6.53 6.53 6.63 6.71 6.95 6.99 7.10 7.17 6.88 7.05 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 5.76 6.62 6.28 5.63 6.32 5.47 6.63 6.91 6.53 6.94 6.76 7.24 7.74 6.61 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operation^ 3.8^ 3.8^ 1.2^ 4.0^ 4.0^ 4.0^ 4.0^ 4.2^ 4.2^ 4.2^ 3.7^ 3.2^ 2.5^ 2.00 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates 4.28 4.63 1.23 4.60 4.78 4.86 4.94 4.96 4.97 5.02 5.11 4.24 3.29 2.46 6-month rates 4.35 4.72 1.44 4.59 4.80 4.90 5.09 5.15 5.16 5.22 5.18 4.29 3.37 2.54 LIBOR CHF 3-month rates 2.55 2.58 0.38 2.83 2.85 2.78 2.84 2.79 2.75 2.78 3.00 1.97 0.91 0.57 6-month rates 2.65 2.69 0.50 2.87 2.93 2.89 2.98 2.94 2.89 2.92 3.09 2.16 1.08 0.71 Sources of data: BS, BBA - British Bankers' Association. 2009 2010 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1|2|3|4|5|6|7 87 103 121 140 142 151 167 166 161 161 160 176 177 140 140 142 141 140 2,867 3,134 3,288 3,542 3,472 3,456 3,427 3,610 3,625 3,581 3,497 3,334 3,382 2,884 2,898 3,001 3,134 3,141 229 233 243 254 251 257 262 281 305 336 376 390 395 390 392 395 392 404 7,852 7,868 7,910 7,946 7,951 8,055 8,135 8,231 8,295 8,345 8,413 8,452 8,480 8,601 8,648 8,701 8,897 8,917 21,429 21,469 21,509 21,516 21,517 21,557 21,671 21,704 21,688 21,645 21,704 21,795 21,896 21,950 22,059 21,997 22,095 22,020 2,814 2,851 2,869 2,838 2,835 2,838 2,868 2,846 2,846 2,772 2,680 2,684 2,665 2,620 2,608 2,558 2,537 2,516 3,826 3,786 3,829 4,008 4,365 4,382 4,334 4,723 4,563 4,589 5,302 6,141 5,093 5,057 5,555 5,638 6,115 5,458 32,663 32,648 32,790 33,140 33,353 33,601 33,628 34,045 33,922 33,962 34,731 35,678 34,817 34,893 35,429 35,620 36,524 35,989 2,315 2,190 2,172 2,122 2,059 2,017 2,003 1,969 1,939 1,919 1,895 1,904 1,894 1,887 1,859 1,852 1,392 1,355 4,040 4,504 4,686 4,843 4,979 4,925 5,067 5,380 5,460 5,386 5,345 5,215 5,200 4,723 4,871 4,819 5,174 5,112 24,487 24,334 25,649 26,020 26,576 26,206 25,956 26,950 26,860 26,930 27,965 28,953 28,198 27,716 27,949 28,085 27,947 27,077 6,421 6,609 6,610 6,876 7,163 6,862 7,011 7,079 6,940 7,028 7,200 7,949 7,139 7,396 7,351 7,732 7,899 7,862 12,053 11,705 12,951 13,053 12,015 10,560 10,067 10,720 10,487 10,283 9,779 9,722 9,479 8,582 8,347 8,029 8,395 8,597 4,729 4,827 4,876 4,868 6,182 7,600 7,712 7,952 8,190 8,315 9,688 9,928 10,260 10,431 10,894 11,005 11,478 10,462 1,284 1,193 1,212 1,223 1,216 1,184 1,166 1,199 1,243 1,304 1,298 1,354 1,320 1,307 1,357 1,319 175 156 502 491 489 495 492 480 462 462 457 454 433 426 439 436 450 495 708 465 230 233 231 251 249 239 240 244 242 261 238 240 241 250 270 299 515 283 195 177 180 166 170 166 150 144 141 122 123 117 120 110 103 104 129 122 43 42 42 41 39 39 38 43 42 43 45 48 52 54 54 57 62 58 34 39 36 37 34 36 34 31 32 28 27 21 26 22 23 35 2 2 0.40 0.34 0.28 0.25 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.21 - - 3.40 2.82 2.44 2.28 2.40 2.35 2.27 2.14 2.04 1.97 2.00 1.91 1.75 1.69 1.66 1.72 - - 6.63 5.75 6.75 6.37 6.59 6.74 6.57 6.64 6.74 5.00 6.28 6.11 6.08 5.33 5.80 5.38 - - 6.35 6.34 6.05 6.10 6.19 6.36 6.20 6.66 6.47 5.94 6.06 6.15 6.31 5.64 5.98 6.03 - - 2.0^ 1.5^ 1.2^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.00 1.94 1.64 1.42 1.28 1.23 0.98 0.86 0.77 0.74 0.72 0.71 0.68 0.66 0.64 0.64 0.69 0.73 0.85 2.03 1.78 1.61 1.48 1.44 1.21 1.12 1.04 1.02 0.99 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.96 0.98 1.01 1.10 0.51 0.44 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.37 0.34 0.30 0.27 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.19 - 0.65 0.58 0.54 0.54 0.52 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.28 - - PUBLIC FINANCE 2007 2008 2009 2008 2009 2010 2008 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q^ Q2 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS-IMF methodology), current prices, EUR m GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 14,006.1 15,339.2 14,408.0 4,005.7 3,857.5 4,106.6 3,283.0 3,542.8 3,558.8 4,023.5 3,310.2 3,476.9 1,342.2 1,226.0 1,289.3 1,310.0 Current revenues 13,467.2 14,792.3 13,639.5 3,881.0 3,733.8 3,903.4 3,204.0 3,322.8 3,470.3 3,642.3 3,157.8 3,367.7 1,306.1 1,164.7 1,263.0 1,295.2 Tax revenues 12,757.9 13,937.4 12,955.4 3,702.0 3,472.0 3,653.3 3,058.9 3,164.5 3,279.0 3,453.0 2,983.4 3,189.2 1,253.4 1,066.2 1,152.4 1,234.1 Taxes on income and profit 2,917.7 3,442.2 2,805.1 1,106.5 806.5 834.7 707.3 617.5 735.5 744.8 635.5 594.4 297.9 256.5 252.1 261.1 Social security contributions 4,598.0 5,095.0 5,161.3 1,254.2 1,272.9 1,364.8 1,285.3 1,280.9 1,260.6 1,334.5 1,274.4 1,303.8 425.8 414.8 432.3 435.0 Taxes on payroll and workforce 418.1 258.0 28.5 62.2 63.5 72.9 7.4 7.2 6.2 7.7 6.3 7.2 21.3 20.4 21.8 22.1 Taxes on property 206.4 214.9 207.0 62.6 69.6 55.2 20.6 51.5 74.6 60.2 24.1 58.9 23.0 26.5 20.0 16.3 Domestic taxes on goods and services 4,498.6 4,805.3 4,660.2 1,181.7 1,227.8 1,296.4 1,015.4 1,177.5 1,184.2 1,283.1 1,023.9 1,199.2 475.3 336.2 416.3 490.6 Taxes on international trade & transactions 117.1 120.1 90.5 33.7 31.0 29.8 22.5 29.2 17.2 21.7 18.7 24.7 9.8 11.5 9.7 10.2 Other taxes 2.1 1.8 2.9 1.0 0.7 -0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 -1.2 Non-tax revenues 709.2 854.9 684.1 179.0 261.8 250.1 145.1 158.4 191.3 189.3 174.4 178.5 52.7 98.5 110.6 61.1 Capital revenues 136.6 117.3 106.5 26.9 28.8 33.6 14.1 29.7 19.3 43.5 9.8 17.8 12.9 6.8 9.0 6.1 Grants 11.9 10.4 11.1 2.1 3.1 3.1 2.9 1.7 1.9 4.7 2.9 2.2 1.6 0.3 1.2 0.6 Transferred revenues 42.5 53.9 54.3 0.9 0.6 51.3 0.2 1.5 1.1 51.5 0.5 2.3 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.4 Receipts from the EU budget 348.0 365.4 596.5 94.8 91.3 115.3 61.8 186.9 66.2 281.5 139.2 86.9 21.5 53.7 16.1 7.7 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TOTAL EXPENDITURES 13,915.5 15,441.7 16,368.2 3,792.9 3,628.8 4,631.4 3,877.1 4,064.6 3,767.1 4,659.5 4,035.2 4,121.8 1,139.6 1,179.6 1,309.7 1,259.5 Current expenditures 5,950.9 6,557.5 6,797.3 1,581.7 1,513.7 1,886.2 1,768.8 1,682.7 1,578.1 1,771.3 1,795.6 1,756.5 507.2 486.1 520.4 535.2 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3,276.9 3,578.9 3,912.3 906.8 892.5 959.8 965.0 1,005.6 955.4 985.9 956.6 1,012.9 292.5 292.5 307.6 292.9 Expenditures on goods and services 2,212.2 2,527.5 2,506.8 589.3 586.1 829.0 547.1 618.0 603.9 741.4 557.0 623.7 204.0 185.7 196.5 207.5 Interest payments 357.0 335.2 335.9 69.8 12.9 31.5 246.7 48.4 12.0 29.0 272.6 110.0 4.9 2.2 5.7 22.7 Reserves 104.8 116.0 42.3 15.8 22.2 65.9 10.0 10.9 6.8 14.9 9.4 9.9 5.9 5.7 10.6 12.0 Current transfers 6,143.9 6,742.2 7,340.3 1,856.8 1,567.3 1,828.2 1,748.2 1,936.1 1,736.9 1,918.2 1,849.0 1,995.1 513.9 535.3 518.1 528.4 Subsidies 423.4 476.5 597.9 243.0 57.7 115.3 165.0 126.9 86.5 219.4 160.7 122.8 16.6 19.4 21.7 27.7 Current transfers to individuals and households 5,093.3 5,619.2 6,024.1 1,448.9 1,344.8 1,522.0 1,436.2 1,614.8 1,475.9 1,497.6 1,529.0 1,671.1 442.0 464.4 438.4 448.8 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 595.3 598.3 679.5 151.2 153.2 175.2 140.0 178.5 164.5 195.1 150.6 188.6 54.0 48.4 50.7 51.4 Current transfers abroad 32.0 48.2 38.9 13.6 11.6 15.7 7.0 15.9 9.9 6.1 8.7 12.6 1.3 3.0 7.3 0.5 Capital expenditures 1,130.5 1,255.5 1,293.3 215.9 350.0 540.6 175.3 237.2 297.5 584.1 192.8 212.4 77.7 98.2 174.1 94.5 Capital transfers 334.3 458.6 495.2 62.3 130.8 234.9 35.9 112.9 86.0 259.9 47.2 90.0 21.8 38.0 70.9 53.0 Payments to the EU budget 355.9 427.9 439.3 76.2 67.0 141.5 148.9 95.6 68.7 126.1 150.6 67.8 18.9 21.9 26.2 48.4 SURPLUS / DEFICIT 90.6 -102.5 -1,961.4 - - - - - - - - - - - - Source of data: MF Bulletin. Note: in line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the state are not consolidated. Data prior to 2007 are recalculated on the basis of the irrevocable SIT/EUR exchange rate = 239.64. 2008 2009 2010 11 1 12 1 1 2 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1,305.0 1,491.6 1,123.2 1,067.7 1,092.1 1,199.9 1,102.2 1,240.7 1,285.0 1,182.6 1,091.2 1,241.3 1,364.0 1,418.1 1,076.9 1,164.2 1,069.1 1,083.1 1,146.4 1,247.4 1,184.7 1,423.5 1,112.4 1,029.2 1,062.4 1,124.2 1,047.1 1,151.5 1,240.6 1,157.6 1,072.2 1,218.5 1,170.6 1,253.2 1,048.1 1,116.0 993.6 1,063.0 1,113.2 1,191.5 1,126.5 1,292.7 1,068.5 980.1 1,010.3 1,076.2 996.5 1,091.7 1,194.2 1,087.7 997.1 1,164.1 1,113.3 1,175.5 994.1 1,053.8 935.4 1,000.9 1,057.0 1,131.4 261.4 312.2 249.4 239.9 218.1 195.9 229.5 192.1 291.4 233.6 210.4 234.2 232.4 278.2 224.3 219.9 191.3 108.0 210.0 276.4 434.9 494.9 433.4 423.7 428.1 433.1 423.8 423.9 424.5 417.3 418.8 428.7 426.3 479.5 424.0 414.6 435.7 437.4 431.5 434.8 22.7 28.1 3.2 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.6 1.7 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.9 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.2 2.5 26.6 12.3 5.3 7.9 7.4 7.9 15.8 27.9 22.6 34.6 17.4 17.1 30.4 12.7 6.7 8.6 8.8 9.7 31.2 18.0 371.0 434.9 370.7 298.5 346.2 424.3 316.7 436.5 445.4 395.4 343.5 474.0 413.3 395.8 331.1 401.7 291.0 434.8 373.4 391.1 9.7 9.9 6.3 8.1 8.1 12.4 8.2 8.6 7.4 5.1 4.7 7.4 8.1 6.1 5.7 6.9 6.1 8.3 8.4 8.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 58.1 130.9 43.8 49.1 52.2 48.0 50.6 59.8 46.4 69.8 75.1 54.3 57.3 77.7 54.0 62.2 58.2 62.2 56.2 60.1 6.2 21.2 2.8 5.9 5.3 3.9 15.5 10.4 8.2 6.4 4.7 6.8 9.2 27.5 2.3 2.7 4.8 7.3 5.3 5.2 1.0 1.6 0.2 0.7 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.8 1.0 1.0 2.7 0.2 0.2 2.5 0.8 1.0 0.3 49.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.5 49.3 1.7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.8 63.6 43.9 7.5 31.9 22.4 70.6 39.3 77.0 34.7 18.4 13.1 14.5 133.9 133.1 26.3 45.0 67.9 11.1 26.3 49.5 1,452.7 1,919.2 1,119.8 1,408.5 1,348.8 1,255.5 1,478.1 1,330.9 1,249.6 1,264.6 1,252.9 1,402.4 1,443.7 1,813.4 1,307.1 1,372.2 1,355.9 1,322.8 1,464.3 1,334.7 562.4 788.7 502.2 619.0 647.6 569.3 580.8 532.6 539.0 535.4 503.7 557.2 542.0 672.1 520.1 631.7 643.8 614.0 594.2 548.2 306.4 360.5 305.3 333.1 326.6 312.7 374.0 318.9 325.6 318.1 311.7 325.4 323.6 336.9 316.7 315.2 324.7 314.0 377.3 321.6 241.4 380.1 172.0 179.1 196.0 212.7 202.2 203.1 207.1 213.2 183.6 206.1 213.8 321.5 170.8 179.3 206.9 193.4 211.5 218.7 2.0 6.8 21.4 103.1 122.3 41.7 1.9 4.8 4.4 1.7 6.0 21.6 1.7 5.8 28.7 134.5 109.4 104.0 1.5 4.6 12.5 41.3 3.5 3.7 2.8 2.3 2.7 5.9 1.9 2.4 2.4 4.2 2.9 7.8 3.9 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.9 3.3 680.2 619.6 515.3 638.3 594.5 571.1 761.3 603.8 583.7 570.0 583.1 591.2 652.6 674.4 651.3 578.4 619.3 612.0 753.2 629.9 18.5 69.1 9.1 110.6 45.3 31.3 54.7 40.9 27.3 22.6 36.6 38.4 97.7 83.4 111.1 22.6 27.0 39.7 42.2 40.9 600.7 472.5 463.1 480.6 492.5 487.2 643.7 483.9 492.1 496.7 487.0 491.7 497.7 508.3 495.1 506.0 527.9 510.2 647.4 513.6 50.3 73.5 40.9 46.4 52.7 51.0 56.3 71.2 62.1 49.6 52.9 59.0 55.7 80.3 42.5 48.3 59.8 60.2 60.3 68.0 10.7 4.5 2.2 0.7 4.1 1.5 6.6 7.8 2.2 1.1 6.7 2.2 1.5 2.4 2.6 1.6 4.5 1.9 3.2 7.5 96.1 349.9 57.4 60.5 57.4 65.6 84.1 87.4 87.5 101.9 108.1 119.3 147.4 317.3 73.6 60.9 58.3 58.5 67.2 86.7 81.1 100.9 12.8 6.3 16.8 17.1 27.8 68.0 22.7 28.1 35.1 82.3 68.2 109.4 18.8 14.1 14.3 18.6 19.5 51.9 32.9 60.1 32.1 84.4 32.4 32.4 24.1 39.1 16.7 29.1 22.8 52.4 33.4 40.3 43.3 87.0 20.3 19.6 30.2 17.9 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Acronyms Acronyms in the text AJPES - Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, BS - Bank of Slovenia, EC - European Commission, ECB - European Central Bank, ECFIN - European Commission Economic and Financial Affairs, ELES - Electro Slovenia, ESS - Employment Service of Slovenia, FED - Federal Reserve System, GDP - Gross Domestic Product, HICP - Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, IMAD - Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, MF - Ministry of Finance, NFI - Non-monetary Financial Institutions, PPA - Public Payments Administration of the Republic of Slovenia, RS - Republic of Slovenia, SCA - Standard Classification of Activities, SITC - Standard International Trade Classification, SMARS - Surveying and Mapping Authority of the Republic of Slovenia, SORS - Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, ZEW - Centre for European Economic Research Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities (SCA) A-Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B-Mining and quarrying, C-Manufacturing, 10-Manufacture of food products, 11-Manufacture of beverages, 12-Manufacture of tobacco products, 13-Manufacture of textiles, 14-Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15-Manufacture of leather and related products, 16- Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17-Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18-Printing and reproduction of recorded media, 19 - Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, 20-Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21-Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22-Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23- Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24-Manufacture of basic metals, 25-Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26-Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27-Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28-Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c., 29- Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, 30-Manufacture of other transport equipment, 31-Manufacture of furniture, 32-Other manufacturing, 33-Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D-Electricity,gas,steam and air conditioning supply,E-Water supplysewerage, waste management and remediationactivities, F-Construction, G-Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H-Transportation and storage, I-Accommodation and food service activities, J- Information and communication, K- Financial and insurance activities, L-Real estate activities, M-Professional, scientific and technical activities, N-Administrative and support service activities, O-Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P-Education, Q-Human health and social work activities, R-Arts, entertainment and recreation, S-Other service activities, T-Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods - and services - producing activities of households for own use, U-Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AT-Austria, BA-Bosnia and Herzegovina, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, HR-Croatia, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IT-Italy, IL-Israel, IE-Ireland, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RS-Republic of Serbia, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America. Slovenian economic mirror July-August 2010, No. 7-8. Vol. XVI