Slovenian Economic Mirror J imad Economic Analyses/August-September 2008 No. 8-9, Vol. XIV Slovenian Economic Mirror presents current macroeconomic developments as well as selected economic, social and environmental issues. The publication consists of articles, which present the main economic indicators, assess the realisation of the spring and autumn forecasts, and monitor implementation of economic policies (earnings, public finance, prices, competitiveness, etc.). The periodical is published monthly, except in September. This issue of Slovenian Economic Mirror was prepared by: Mateja Peternelj (Autumn Forecast of Economic Trends, 2008-2010, Gross Domestic Product), Jure Brložnik (International Environment), Slavica Jurančič (Competitiveness), Jože Markič (Balance of Payments), Miha Trošt (Price Trends & Policy), Marjan Hafner (Money Market - Household Savings, Money Market - Loans), Tomaž Kraigher (Labour Market), Saša Kovačič (Earnings), Katarina Ivas (Manufacturing), Janez Kušar (Construction), Barbara Ferk (Private Consumption & Household Indebtedness), Tina Nenadič (Distributive Trade, Tourism). Director: Boštjan Vasle. Editor in Chief: Luka Žakelj. Translator: Marija Kavčič. Language Editing: Translation and Interpretation Division of the Secretariat-General of the Government of the RS. Technical Editor: Ema Bertina Kopitar. Statistical Appendix, Data Preparation & Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman. Distribution: Katja Ferfolja. Printed by: Tiskarna Štrok. Concept & Design: Sandi Radovan, Studio DVA. Circulation: 500 copies. Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development Gregorčičeva 27, 1000 Ljubljana (+386 1) 478 10 12 fax: 478 10 70 Editor in chief: luka.zakelj@gov.si Translator: marija.kavcic@gov.si Distribution: publicistika.umar@gov.si SEM can be found on the Internet at http://www.umar.gov.si/en/publications/slovenian_economic_mirror/zapisi/?no_cache=1 Publication is included in Ebsco Publishing Database and Internet Securities Database. © 1995-2008. Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development. The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 8-9/2008 p. 2 Autumn Forecast of Economic Trends, 2008-2010 Economic growth at 4.8% in 2008, a slowdown to 3.1% next year; following 5.3% inflation in 2008, a decline to 3.9% next year p. 3 Gross Domestic Product Moderation of economic growth at a relatively high level in the first six months of the year; exports and investment remain the main drivers of growth p. 4 International Environment Further deterioration of the outlook for economic growth in the euro area p. 5 Competitiveness Stronger deterioration in price and cost competitiveness in the first half of the year p. 6 Balance of Payments The current account deficit is widening p. 7 Price Trends & Policy Inflation declined in both Slovenia and the euro area, given the slowdown in oil prices on global markets p. 8 Money Market - Household Savings Smaller volume of household deposits in banks in July p. 9 Money Market - Loans Lending activity continues to slow p. 10 Labour Market Despite seasonal swings, labour market trends still favourable in summer p. 11 Earnings 0.6% July wage growth in the private sector and 0.5% in the public sector p. 12 Manufacturing A decline in production activity and in the number of employees recorded in July p. 13 Construction Activity moderated, but is still much stronger than last year p. 14 Private Consumption & Household Indebtedness After a long period of relatively strong growth in consumption of durable goods, first signs of moderation observed in the summer months p. 15 Distributive Trade Distributive trades again recorded strong value added growth p. 16 Tourism Growth in the number of tourist overnight stays moderated notably in the second quarter p. 17 Data: (pp. A 1-12), Main Indicators (p. A 13), International Comparisons (pp. A 14-15), Graphs (pp. A 16-17). Selected indicators of current economic developments, change in % Latest data Compared to the previous month same period of previous year latest data pre-latest data pre-pre latest data Industrial production (value based) VII -5.0 1.7 2.4 2.4 Manufacturing VII -5.2 1.8 2.7 2.8 Electricity, gas and water supply VII 0.7 0.7 0.9 -0.8 Value of construction put in place, real terms VII 3.3 22.0 22.8 25.2 Exports of goods (nominal terms)1 VII 1.6 7.0 7.4 8.0 Imports of goods (nominal terms)1 VII 3.6 12.2 12.2 12.6 Real effective exchange rate2 VII -0.4 4.2 4.3 4.4 Gross wage per employee, real terms VII 0.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 Total household savings in banks,3 nominal terms VII -0.3 8.7 10.3 11.3 General government revenue, real terms VIII -9.1 5.5 7.0 6.0 Number of persons in paid employment VII -0.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 Number of registered unemployed VIII -1.4 -13.0 -13.2 -13.4 Number of job vacancies VIII 1.6 3.2 3.4 3.2 Month current previous pre-previous Registered unemployment rate VII 6.5 6.4 6.5 Month current cumulative annual4 Consumer prices IX 0.0 3.5 5.5 Producer prices (domestic market) VIII 0.0 4.7 7.0 Sources of data: SORS, BS, ESS, estimates and calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1balance of payments' statistics; 2euro exchange rate for Slovenia measured by relative consumer prices; the calculation of the effective exchange rate includes the currencies/prices of Slovenia's 17 trading partners (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Italy, France, Netherlands, Spain, Denmark, United Kingdom, Sweden, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, USA, Switzerland, Japan); weights are the shares of individual trading partners in Slovenian exports and imports of goods within manufacturing (5-8 SITC) in 2001-2003; exports are double weighted; 3the year-on-year growth rate is defined as the ratio between the stock at the end of the current month and the stock in the same month of the previous year; 4total in the last 12 months. In the Spotlight Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 8-9/2008 p. 3 After posting a high in 2007 (6.8%), economic growth is expected to slow at a relatively high level (4.8%) this year, against the background of slower growth of exports and investment, which remain the main drivers of economy. The cooling of economic activity in Slovenia's main trading partners in the EU contributed to the slowing of export activity (6.6%), also evidenced by the deteriorated business expectations (a decrease in the order-books and a worsening of the competitive position of enterprises in foreign markets). Investment activity remains relatively strong in all segments this year, but we expect gross fixed capital formation to decelerate notably relative to last year (to 8.8%). Developments in the international environment imply a slowdown in business investment growth, which is already suggested by the data on capacity utilisation. Infrastructure investment growth will remain relatively strong, whereas growth of investment in new dwellings will moderate slowly by the end of the year. The slowdown in investment in non-residential buildings will be even faster. Final consumption growth remains moderate, at a similar level as last year. Owing to modest final consumption and weaker export growth, import growth will slow to 6.9% for the year as a whole. The negative contribution of net exports to economic growth (-0.3 p.p.) is thus expected to be smaller than last year (-1.3 p.p.). The autumn forecast of economic growth is revised upwards by 0.4 p.p. from the spring. Higher growth rates are expected in investment, given vigorous growth in the first half of the year (see p. 4), while the upward revision of private consumption growth is mainly due to the impact of the revision of data for 2007. The autumn forecast of export growth, on the other hand, is lower than in the spring, given the situation in the international environment. In 2008, the current account deficit (5.8% of GDP) will widen relative to last year (4.2% of GDP), largely as a result of a higher trade deficit. With imports increasing faster than exports, in nominal terms, partly due to the slowdown in foreign demand growth as well as the deteriorated terms of trade, the trade deficit will be approximately half higher than last year. Due to a further increase in net interest payments, the capital income deficit will widen as well. The deterioration in external position will be partly offset by the continuing increase of the services trade surplus as a result of the accelerated growth of exports of transport and travel services. The decelerating economic activity will be gradually reflected in labour market trends. In the first half of this year, employment growth remained at last year's level (3%), but with a gradual slowing of y-o-y growth rates, which is set to continue in the second half of the year. In most industries employment growth in the first half of the year exceeded the spring expectations. The autumn forecast is thus notably higher (2.3%) than projected in the spring (1.1%). The number of unemployed persons and unemployment rates will also be lower than forecast in the spring: registered unemployment will decrease to 6.8% and survey unemployment to 4.6%. This year, nominal wage growth will be higher than last year, but in real terms wage rises will remain roughly at the 2007 level. Nominal wage growth in 2008 (8.6%) will be higher than last year (5.9%). This is primarily a result of higher inflation and higher wage rises in the public sector, largely because of the payment of the first quarter of funds to eliminate wage disparities according to the new wage system. Given the acceleration in 2008, nominal wage growth will surpass productivity growth. Real wage growth (2.3%) will remain at a similar level as last year (2.2%) and will thus be roughly consistent with real productivity growth. Average inflation will reach 6.2% this year, 1 p.p. more than projected in the spring, mainly due to substantially higher commodity price rises than was assumed in the spring forecast. Inflation surged mainly because of accelerating prices of food and liquid fuels for transport and heating linked to international price development in the first half of the year. Contrary to last year, high energy and food price rises also spilled over to other price groups. In the last three months, the easing of oil and commodity prices contributed to a decline in y-o-y inflation rates (to 5.5% in September, the lowest figure this year). Assuming the expected stabilisation of oil and food prices on the global markets (according to the international forecasting institutions), y-o-y inflation should continue to decline. The economic policy mix this year broadly maintains the orientation; following the adoption of the supplementary budget, the fiscal policy is somewhat more restrictive while wage growth relative to productivity growth has a less constraining impact on price rises. At the end of the year, y-oy inflation is expected to stand at 5.3% while average inflation is forecast at 6.2%. Although the easing of inflation is more pronounced in Slovenia than in the euro area as a whole, the level of inflation will remain higher due to Slovenia's relatively stronger economic growth. In 2009, economic growth is expected to slow to 3.1% in line with considerably weaker investment growth and further moderation of export growth, followed by a pick-up to 4.0%in 2010. Investment growth will decline significantly next year, which is largely expected given the high rates recorded over the last few years. Due to the deteriorated outlook for the international environment, a further slowdown of export growth is also envisaged. Uncertainty about the extent to which the financial turmoil will affect the U.S. and euro-area economies represents the main risk to the forecast of economic growth for 2009. A greater deceleration of economic growth in these countries would entail weaker export growth and a decline in business investment compared with the central forecast. The slowdown in economic growth in 2009 will be reflected in labour market trends: the number of persons in employment is not projected to increase in the next year, on average, and unemployment rates will remain at the 2008 level. Nominal wage growth for the private sector will slow down, while in the public sector wages will accelerate considerably due to the agreed payments of two quarters of funds to eliminate wage disparities. The total gross wage per employee will increase by 7.8% in nominal terms and exceed labour productivity growth by 0.8 p.p. Given that inflationary pressures are expected to ease, y-o-y inflation will drop to 3.6% and average inflation to 3.9% by the end of 2009. Based on the latest projections by international forecasting institutions, commodity and food prices are estimated to make a smaller contribution to inflation than they do this year. Moreover, inflationary pressures will also ease due to the foreseen slowdown in economic growth. Assuming the cyclical acceleration in the international environment in 2010, which will contribute to the strengthening of export and investment growth, economic growth is expected to pick up to 4.0%. Employment will rise again. Nominal wage growth will be slower compared to the year before and lower than productivity growth, which will contribute to the reduction of inflation to its long-term equilibrium level. Gross Domestic Product Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 8-9/2008 p. 4 Real year-on-year growth rates, in %1 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Gross domestic product 6.3 7.2 6.0 6.4 4.7 5.4 5.5 Private consumption 2.7 2.3 2.0 4.8 3.2 3.5 2.6 Government consumption 4.6 0.7 0.4 1.7 2.7 2.9 2.7 Gross capital formation 13.5 20.0 26.6 19.6 7.6 17.3 10.9 Gross fixed capital formation 12.3 21.2 21.8 18.7 8.6 16.9 9.0 Changes in inventories and valuables2 0.7 0.4 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.8 0.6 Exports of goods and services 13.0 14.9 13.0 15.1 9.3 6.8 7.8 Imports of goods and services 12.3 14.4 16.2 18.2 8.6 9.7 7.3 Source of data: SORS. Notes: Seasonally non-adjusted data. Contribution to GDP growth, in p.p. Quarterly data have not yet been adjusted to the annual data according to the most recent revision of the main national accounts aggregates, where individual categories of GDP were significantly _changed._ Economic growth moderated at a relatively high level in the first half of 2008. Exports and investment remained the key factors of growth. In the first half of the year, real GDP growth was below the 2007 average, but the structure of growth stayed favourable. Exports remained an important driver of economic growth, even though export activity (especially in merchandise exports) moderated in the first half of the year (7.3%) relative to last year. In the first half of the year, the largest contribution to y-o-y export growth came from road vehicle exports, though they recorded a notable slowdown relative to last year (6.6%, against 25.9% last year). In contrast to merchandise exports, exports of services, particularly travel and business services, still posted notable growth in the first six months. The slowdown in export growth is relatively more pronounced than in investment growth. Their respective contributions to economic growth were therefore more balanced than last year, when exports contributed relatively more. Investment activity remained at the high 2007 level (12.9%) despite the slowdown in the second quarter. It stayed relatively strong in all segments. Investment in civil engineering works remained vigorous, albeit below the 2007 average. At the beginning of the year, investment in non-residential buildings recorded the fastest growth, but slowed somewhat in the second quarter, while strong growth in infrastructure investment continued. Investment in machinery and equipment also increased in the first half of the year, but posted weaker growth (just below 8%) than in the previous two years. Final consumption continued to grow moderately (3.0%). Against the background of a modest final consumption and weaker export growth this year, growth of merchandise imports (8.5%) is notably slower than last year. Growth of service imports is somewhat slower as well, largely owing to weaker growth of transport service imports. In the first half of the year, y-o-y value added growth slowed moderately (5.1%) after the significant increase in 2007. This year's moderation was mainly due to the considerable slowdown in value added growth in manufacturing (2.4%). It is noteworthy that the acceleration in the second quarter was linked to the different timing of the Easter holiday from last year. Given the economic developments in the international environment, growth of industrial production in manufacturing has been slowing gradually in most industries since the second quarter of 2007. In the second quarter of 2008, the number of employees in manufacturing (seasonally adjusted) declined relative to the previous quarter for the first time in two years. In the first half of the year, growth in construction (19.9%) was still at its high 2007 level, but mainly due to the exceptionally high first-quarter figures, which dropped by half in the second quarter. After the acceleration in the first quarter, growth moderated in the second quarter in all segments of construction of buildings and civil engineering works, particularly in construction of non-residential buildings. Relatively strong growth (7.4%) was still recorded in the group of market services (G-K), except in business services and hotels and restaurants, where this year value added is increasing at a slower pace than last year. In the first six months, on average relatively high growth rates of value added were recorded in financial intermediation, distributive trades and transport. The slowdown in financial services growth in the second quarter is consistent with the slowdown in the lending activity of banks as a consequence of the tightened credit conditions (especially due to the impact of the international financial turmoil on domestic interest rates) and the slowdown of activities in manufacturing and construction. The y-o-y increase in value added in public services (L-P) in the first half of the year remained weak (1.1%). Modest growth of value added in public services continued, owing to weaker growth in public administration and community, social and personal services, while growth in education and health and social care was somewhat stronger. Graph 1: Expenditure structure of GDP growth Graph 2: Production structure of GDP growth S 15 !10 5 5 6 ° 0 .1 -5 "5 I -10 y ■ « « B ■ m MR □ Imports of goods and services ^Changes in inventories and valuables ■ Government consumption QExports of goods and services D Gross fixed capital formation QPrivate consumption Source of data: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Q1 2007 Q2 2! □Net taxes on goods □ L to P - Other servi □ J, K -Financial inte OG, H, I - Trade and OF -construction OC, D, E - Mining, ■A, B -Agriculture rmediation, real estđe, busin repair, hotels and restaurants, transport a manufacturing, energy supply hunting, forestry, fishing -15 International Environment Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 8-9/2008 p. 5 Real GDP growth - comparison of forecasts and IMAD's assumptions 2008 2009 2010 2006 2007 IMAD IMF OECD EC CONS IMAD IMAD IMF CONS IMAD IMAD CONS IMAD Mar 08 Jul 08 Sep 08 Sep 08 Sep 08 Sep 08 Mar 08 Jul 08 Sep 08 Sep 08 Mar 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 EU 3.1 2.9 1.9 N/A N/A 1.4 1.6 1.4 2.1 N/A 1.1 1.1 2.2 n.p. 2.0 EMU 2.8 2.7 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.9 1.2 0.9 1.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 DE 3.0 2.5 1.6 2.0 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.9 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.9 1.6 1.6 IT 1.8 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.2 1.2 1.2 AT 3.4 3.1 2.4 N/A N/A N/A 2.2 2.2 2.3 N/A 1.7 1.8 2.3 N/A 2.3 FR 2.2 2.2 1.6 1.6 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.9 1.4 1.0 1.0 2.2 2.0 2.0 UK 2.9 3.1 1.7 1.8 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 2.0 1.7 0.6 0.9 2.0 1.8 1.8 US 2.8 2.0 1.2 1.3 1.8 N/A 1.8 1.6 2.4 0.8 1.4 1.4 2.8 3.0 2.8 Sources of data: Eurostat; IMAD Spring Forecast (March 2008); UMAR Autumn Forecast (September 2008); Consensus Forecasts (August 2008, September 2008); OECD _Interim Assessment (September 2008); IMF World Economic Outlook Update (July 2008); European Commission Interim Forecast (September 2008)._ Following negative economic growth in the second quarter, the European Commission revised downwards its 2008 economic growth forecasts for the euro area to 1.3% in September. In the second quarter, GDP growth in the euro area was negative (q-o-q) for the first time since the launch of the single European currency, which is partly attributable to strong first-quarter growth; growth decelerated from 2.1% to 1.4%, year on year. The slowdown was mainly linked to private consumption, which was affected by high inflation, and to investment, reflecting a drop in construction investment, which had recorded very high first-quarter growth. Given the moderation of economic activity, growth of investment in machinery and equipment slowed as well. The contribution of foreign trade halved relative to the first quarter, as - given the stronger euro (see p. 6) and weaker foreign demand growth - growth of exports decelerated more than growth of imports. The European Commission expects stagnating growth in the last two quarters of 2008 in both the euro area and the whole EU and, consequently, it reduced its annual growth forecast for the euro area by 0.4 p.p., to 1.3%, and for the EU by 0.6 p.p., to 1.4%. The ECB also revised downwards its interval forecast of 2008 growth in September, from 1.52.1% in June to 1.1-1.7%. Confidence indicators already suggest that growth will moderate further in the second half of the year; in August, the economic sentiment indicator for the euro area dropped to its lowest level since March 2003; the business climate indicator continues to fall as well. In July, industrial production fell for the third month in a row, the largest drop since June 2003, the value of construction declined further and weak growth of retail trade continued. According to the Commission, growth in 2008 may even be lower than expected, if risks associated with the consequences of the financial turmoil are realised. Y-o-y inflation in the euro area dropped by 0.2 p.p. in August, to 3.8%. The ECB raised its forecast for the average inflation rate to the interval of 3.4-3.6%. Given that oil and food price rises were the main driver of inflation in the last year also in the euro area as a whole, inflation dropped to 3.8% in August in line with the slowdown of oil prices on the world markets. Following record highs, oil prices started to decline at the beginning of July, and were in August 15% lower on average than in July, but still 60% higher, year on year. Growth of food prices is also slowing; in August, y-o-y growth of the IMF's index of food prices dropped from 41.5% to 28.8%. Core inflation (excluding energy and food prices) climbed by 0.2 p.p. in August, to 1.9%, reflecting secondary effects of commodity price rises, while the spill-over of higher prices to wages poses the main risk to inflation in the future. Data indicate accelerated growth in all labour cost indicators in the euro area this year. Similar to the ECB, the Commission also revised upwards its average inflation forecast for this year, from 3.1% to 3.6%. In the second quarter, GDP growth in the United States exceeded expectations, but is projected to slow notably in the second half of the year, mainly due to the consequences of the financial crisis. GDP growth in the second quarter was 2.8%, largely due to the favourable impact of tax refunds on private consumption growth, along with strong growth of exports. In the second half of the year, growth rates are expected to be half as much as in the first or even less, given that the effects of the fiscal measures will fade out and that unemployment is rising, having reached 6.1% in August, which will have a negative impact on private consumption growth in the future. The dollar has also picked up strength in recent months. Along with weaker foreign demand growth, this will contribute to lower growth rates in exports. Problems also continue in the housing and financial markets. The developments in the latter, in particular, pose a serious risk to economic growth, despite the U.S. authorities' attempts to restore the normal functioning of the market. Graph 1: GDP growth in EMU, USA and Germany Graph 2: Y-o-y inflation in EMU 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 2 0.5 £ 0.0 -0.5 C5 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 2008 2009 Source of data: Eurostat; Consensus Forecasts (September 2008). Note: Forecast from Q3 2008 onwards. Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul 2007 2008 Source of data: Eurostat; Consensus Forecasts, September 2007. Note: forecasts from Q3 2007 onwards. 8 3 2 0 Competitiveness Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 8-9/2008 p. 6 Price competitiveness indicators, average indices 2005 2006 2007 1st half of 2008 Effective exchange rate1 Nominal 99.3 100.2 100.8 101.2 Real, relative CPI deflator 99.8 100.7 102.3 104.3 Real, relative PPI deflator2 99.4 99.1 102.1 101.5 Real, relative ULC deflator - economy 98.2 100.3 101.8 103.4 Real, relative ULC deflator - manufacturing industries 100.3 98.4 101.6 106.4 Components of cost competitiveness Nominal ULC - economy 100.8 101.2 102.6 104.4 Compensation per employee3 105.3 105.5 106.3 106.9 Labour productivity 104.5 104.2 103.7 102.3 Nominal ULC - manufacturing 100.1 97.1 99.8 105.4 Compensation per employee3 105.9 106.0 106.7 107.7 Labour productivity 105.8 109.2 106.9 102.1 Source of data: SORS, AP, BS, OECD Main Economic Indicators; calculations by IMAD. Notes: Against the basket of currencies of 17 trading partners (Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain [7 euro area trading partners], Denmark, United Kingdom, Sweden, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, USA, Switzerland, Japan [10 trading partners outside the euro area]; an increase indicates appreciation and _vice versa. 2Deflated by manufacturing producer prices on the domestic market. 3IMAD estimates._ The stronger deterioration in price competitiveness in the first six months of 2008 was mainly due to higher consumer price rises. Despite the strong y-o-y appreciation of the euro against the USD (15.2%) and GBP (14.9%), the negative effect of the nominal appreciation of the effective exchange rate (1.2%) on price competitiveness was relatively smaller, as Slovenia's economy conducts the major part of its trade in the national currency; the pressures of the strong appreciation of the euro against the USD and GBP on price competitiveness were also cushioned in part by its concurrent drop against the CHF, CZK, PLN and SKK. As relative consumer price growth (compared to that of Slovenia's trading partners) increased to 3.1% in the first half of the year (against 0.8% in the first, and 2.1% in the second half of 2007), real growth of the effective exchange rate rose significantly as well (4.3%). A breakdown by quarters shows that y-o-y real effective exchange rate growth moderated slightly (to 4.2% from 4.5% in Q1) in the second quarter, when consumer price growth in Slovenia remained high, while in its trading partners it even increased. July's figures (3.5%) also indicate a further slowdown in y-o-y growth of the real effective exchange rate. Measured by relative producer prices in manufacturing, Slovenia's price competitiveness saw a notably smaller deterioration in the first half of the year. As Slovenian producer prices increased more proportionally relative to the prices of Slovenia's trading partners (on the domestic market), their relative growth slowed significantly year on year (to 0.3%, from 1.2% in the first, and 1.3% in the second half of 2007). Consequently, real growth of the effective exchange rate deflated by producer prices declined as well (to 1.5%; see table). In the first six months, the deterioration in price competitiveness was more pronounced than in 2007 in all EMU Member States. According to ECB calculations, Ireland, Malta, Cyprus and Belgium saw a greater y-o-y deterioration in price competitiveness than Slovenia in the first half of the year (see Graph 2). Moderated productivity growth, coupled with concurrent wage rises in the first six months of the year, also contributed considerably to the deterioration in cost competitiveness of the Slovenian economy. Y-o-y growth of the real effective exchange rate deflated by relative unit labour costs of the total economy stood at 3.4% in the first six months (against 1.8% last year). Under the influence of the slowdown in economic activity on one side, and increased employment growth on the other, labour productivity eased to 2.3% (against 3.7% last year), while at the same time the nominal growth of compensation per employee increased due to faster growth of wages (see Graph 1). Y-o-y growth of the real effective exchange rate, as measured by relative unit labour costs in manufacturing was even stronger (6.4%), given that in manufacturing the slowdown in labour productivity growth was even more pronounced than in the total economy (down to 2.1%, against 6.9% last year), and that wage growth was higher as well (see SEM pp. 12 and 13). Graph 1: Cost competitiveness of the total economy and its (domestic) components_ Graph 2: Harmonised real effective exchange rates of the euro in EMU Member States, deflated by CPI_ 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2 i. ■. ■. ■ .i Real compensation per employee ^ GDP deflator I I Labour productivity (inverse values) - Nominal ULC -•- Real ULC ---------Real effective exchange rate, ULC deflator -economy Sources of data: BS, SORS, AJPES, ECB, OECD; calculations by IMAD. r-W IE MT CY BE SI ES GR FR LU IT FI DE NL AT PT Source of data: ECB. 7 0 Balance of Payments Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 8-9/2008 p- 7 Balance of payments, I-VII2008, EUR m Inflows Outflows Balance1 Balance, I-VII 2007 Current account 16,391.6 17,610.8 -1,219.2 -541.5 Trade balance (FOB) 12,354.8 13,730.1 -1,375.3 -690.5 Services 2,873.7 1,886.0 987.7 734.9 Income 724.8 1,268.2 -543.4 -450.6 Current transfers 438.2 726.6 -288.4 -135.3 Capital and financial account 4,905.7 -3,556.9 1,348.8 781.2 Capital account 135.2 -169.8 -34.6 -23.0 Capital transfers 132.4 -165.8 -33.4 -21.9 Non-produced, non-financial assets 2.8 -4.0 -1.2 -1.2 Financial account 4,770.5 -3,387.1 1,383.4 804.2 Direct investment 709.5 -679.8 29.7 -215.5 Portfolio investment 836.9 -1,523.5 -686.6 -1,593.7 Financial derivatives 0.0 4.9 4.9 -5.9 Other long-term capital investment 3,224.1 -1,114.4 2,109.6 2,443.7 Assets 44.4 -1,105.7 -1,061.3 -3,473.1 Liabilities 3,179.7 -8.7 3,171.0 5,916.8 International reserves (BS) 0.0 -74.3 -74.3 175.6 Statistical error 0.0 -129.6 -129.6 -239.7 Source of data: BS. Note: a minus sign (-) in the balance indicates a surplus of imports over exports in the current account and a rise in assets in _the capital and financial account and the central bank's international reserves._ The current account deficit widened significantly in the first seven months this year. It was EUR 677.7 m higher, year on year, and was mainly underpinned by the higher trade deficit reflecting a gradual cooling of economic activity in the euro area on one hand, and strong price rises of oil and other primary commodities on the other. The deficits in factor incomes and current transfers widened as well. The deterioration in the external balance was mitigated by the surplus in the services balance. Growth of merchandise imports is declining at a slower pace than growth of exports, mainly due to increasing import prices. In the first seven months of 2008, merchandise exports and imports increased by a respective 6.4% and 12.1%, year on year, in nominal terms (against 17.7% and 19.4%, respectively, in the same period last year). The largest slowdown was seen in exports to EU countries, while growth of exports to the countries of the former Yugoslavia and Russia remained relatively strong. According to the available SITC data, y-o-y export growth in the first half of the year was mainly underpinned by exports of road vehicles, machinery specialised for particular industries, electrical machinery and appliances, and medical and pharmaceutical products (see also graph). In the first half of the year, almost 50% of y-o-y import growth was due to nominal growth of oil and oil product imports. Around EUR 420 m of the trade deficit increase is attributable to the deteriorated terms of trade in the first half of the year. Services trade growth remains high, and the surplus is increasing. Strong y-o-y growth of services exports in the first seven months (by a nominal 20.9%) was mainly driven by increased exports of transport and travel services. The increase in travel services is mainly attributable to private trips recording 11.8% growth, which could have been a consequence of higher prices of services provided by hotels and restaurants (see p. 17). Growth rates were also high in financial and construction services, as well as merchanting. Growth of services imports (14.8%) was largely propelled by imports of various business, professional and technical services. Imports of construction services declined by 14.9%, year on year. The surplus in the services balance strengthened significantly and was a result of the larger trade surplus in transport and travel services, as well as the smaller trade deficit in the group of other services. The factor income deficit increased largely on account of net capital expenditure. The largest increase was recorded in domestic banks' net payments of interest on foreign loans. In the first seven months, direct investment recorded an increase in net expenditures from capital income and net interest payments on loans between affiliated companies. Due to increased portfolio investment abroad, banks and other sectors received higher net interest on investment in bonds and debentures, and other sectors also on investment in equity securities. The deficit in labour income totalled EUR 0.2 m in the first seven months (higher remittances abroad); the same period last year saw a surplus of almost EUR50 m. The deficit in current transfers was mainly a result of the general government deficit. The latter was largely fuelled by payments of contributions and taxes to the rest of the world and other government transfers. Since May, Slovenia's budget has recorded surpluses relative to the EU budget, chiefly on account of the increase in funds for the implementation of the common agricultural policy. Due to the deficit posted in the first four months, Slovenia's net budgetary position relative to the EU budget recorded a deficit of EUR 58.8 m in the first seven months this year, which was larger than in the same period last year (EUR 30.6 m). Graph: Contribution of exports of road vehicles and other goods to total merchandise exports 20 15 10 - 5 Q1 Q2 2006 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2006 Q1 2007 20 15 1 Exports of other goods (left axis) 10 % Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 1 Road vehicle exports (left axis) Q1 2008 Q2 2008 • Growth of total exports (right axis) Source of data: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 5 0 0 Price Trends and Policy Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 8-9/2008 p. 8 2007 2008 Price indices XII2007/ 0 (I 07—XII07)/ VIII2008/ VIII2008/ 0 (IX07-VIII 08)/ XII 2006 0 (106—XII 06) VII2008 VIII2007 0 (IX 06-VIII 07) Consumer prices (CPI) 105.6 103.6 99.4 106.0 106.0 Goods 106.0 103.2 98.8 106.3 106.5 Fuel and energy 109.8 103.1 95.8 115.1 111.5 Other 105.2 103.2 99.5 104.3 105.4 Services 104.8 104.5 100.8 105.3 105.1 Consumer prices (HICP) 105.7 103.8 99.3 106.0 106.0 Administered prices' 107.2 102.6 96.6 114.1 111.1 Energy 109.6 102.7 94.5 121.6 115.5 Other 101.5 102.4 100.8 99.3 102.3 Core inflation: - trimmean 103.2 102.3 99.5 104.0 103.9 - excluding (fresh) food & energy 104.0 102.7 100.1 104.7 104.5 Consumer prices in the EMU 103.1 102.1 99.9 103.8 103.3 Producer prices of domestic manufacturers: - domestic market 106.3 105.4 100.0 107.0 106.3 - EMU 100.9 105.0 100.3 104.6 102.1 Sources of data: CPI, HICP, IPI: SORS; administered prices and core inflation: IMAD estimate; MUICP in the EU: Eurostat (provisional data) and IMAD recalculation. Note: figures are not directly comparable between years due to the annual changes of the administered prices index. Consumer prices dropped in August. They were 0.6% lower compared to July. Following a slight decrease in July, y-o-y inflation also declined in August (by 0.9 p.p.), to 6.0% (against 3.5% in August 2007). In the first eight months of the year, consumer prices increased by 3.5% (against 3.2% last year). Prices fell mainly due the lowering of liquid fuel prices. The major contribution to the price falls in August came from lower liquid fuel prices, which reduced inflation by 0.6 p.p. The impact of oil price dynamics in global markets on inflation in Slovenia is around 60% stronger than in the euro area on average, and works in both directions. This means that oil price cuts on global markets (from around USD 150/barrel to around USD 120/barrel) contributed to a greater moderation of inflation in Slovenia than in the euro area as a whole. In addition to liquid fuel prices, the overall price level in August was also marked by the usual seasonal factors, particularly lower prices of vegetables (-0.2 p.p.) and fruit (0.1 p.p.), and higher prices of holiday packages (0.1 p.p.). Consumer prices in the euro area saw a significant increase this year. After totalling 1.7% in August 2007, y-o-y growth of prices in the euro area climbed to 4.0% in the period to July 2008, and dropped to 3.8% in August (see Graph 1). Accelerated price rises in the euro area were mainly driven by food and energy prices growing faster than the overall price level in this area. On the other hand, prices of services in the euro area have been rising at a moderate rate, similar to previous years. Similar to inflation in the euro area, domestic inflation is largely a consequence of energy and food price rises on world markets. The key difference between consumer price developments in the euro area and in Slovenia is in service price growth, rising slowly yet steadily in the last four years, which is to some extent linked to the Ballasa-Samuelson effect, and in part also to the spillover of higher energy prices to these prices and price rises of certain services upon the adoption of the euro. Prices of services recorded 5.3% growth in August, year on year (against 5.1% last year and 3.8% in 2006). In the past 18 months, prices of services nonetheless contributed around 11% to the surge of domestic inflation above the long-term equilibrium level, totalling around 3% by our estimates; 37% came from faster food price rises, and 36% from price rises of liquid fuels for transport and heating, while price rises of other products contributed 15%. Producer prices of manufactured goods on the domestic market remained unchanged in August. At the year-on-year level, they nevertheless rose from 6.9% in July to 7.0% in August. Prices of manufactured goods for sale on foreign markets increased by 0.3% in August, having climbed by 4.6% over the last 12 months, which signifies that growth of these prices on the domestic market remained stronger than abroad. Producer prices are rising also in the total euro area. Y-o-y growth of producer prices in July (9.0%; the latest figure) was higher than in Slovenia (6.9%), and was mainly driven by growth in energy prices, which increased by 24.7% compared to last June (see Graph 2). Graph 1: Y-o-y consumer price growth Graph 2: Y-o-y producer price growth 10 9 8 7 6 % 5 4 3 2 1 0 10 8 * ■ / M !/ VJV C * \ / CM CM CO CO IO lO CD CD Source of data: Eurostat. Source of data: Eurostat. 12 6 4 Money Market - Household Savings Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 8-9/2008 P. 9 Household savings in banks and EUR m, nominal Nominal growth rates, in % in mutual funds managed by 31. XII2007 31. VII2008 31. VII2008/ 31. VII2008/ 31. VII2008/ domestic administrators 30. VI2008 31. XII2007 31. VII2007 Total savings in banks 12,541.8 13,232.5 -0.3 5.5 8.7 Domestic currency savings 12,164.2 12,882.3 -0.4 5.9 9.5 Overnight deposits1 5,244.4 5,202.4 -5.3 -0.8 -5.0 Short-term deposits 4,941.7 5,342.0 3.7 8.1 19.1 Long-term deposits 1,246.0 1,503.1 3.2 20.6 25.0 Deposits redeemable at notice 732.1 834.7 0.2 14.0 40.6 Foreign currency savings 377.6 350.2 2.1 -7.3 -16.4 Overnight deposits1 143.4 135.7 4.1 -5.4 -21.8 Short-term deposits 170.7 154.3 0.4 -9.6 -15.7 Long-term deposits 40.0 33.2 3.1 -17.0 -27.1 Deposits redeemable at notice 23.5 27.0 1.4 15.1 60.9 Mutual funds 2,924.4 2,211.3 -2.5 -20.4 -24.4 Source of data: Monthly Bulletin of the BS, SMA (Securities Market Agency); calculations by IMAD. Note: 1demand deposits. Growth of household savings in banks is gradually slowing. While in previous years deposit volume growth moderated due to seasonal factors in July, it was negative this year for the first time in the past three years, since comparable data have been available. The decline is a result of the smaller volume of euro deposits, while foreign currency deposits increased for the first time since November 2006. The y-o-y growth rate of all household deposits in banks slowed for the third consecutive month, dropping to its 2008 low in July. Net inflows of household deposits in banks are thus slowing as well, having totalled EUR 690.6 m in the first seven months of 2008, 5% less than in the same period of 2007. The decline in July was entirely due to net outflows of overnight deposits. A large part of these outflows was probably intended for increased household spending associated with holidays. On the other hand, part of overnight deposits was transferred to time deposits, which posted the highest growth this year (3.2%), being a good fifth larger year on year. Stronger growth is a result of the changed policy of banks, compensating for the decline in the volume of available assets from interbank markets with household deposits. This growth was largely underpinned by short-term deposits, which, following two months of decline, recorded 3.6% growth in July. Long-term deposits continue to strengthen. Their growth rates moderated significantly relative to April and May 2008, but were still around 3%. Growth of deposits redeemable at notice, which has posted exceptionally high growth rates in the past, recorded a notable slowdown and was below the 1% level for the third month in a row. The decrease is most likely attributable to smaller differences in interest rates between regular time deposits and deposits redeemable at notice. After two months of modest net inflows in mutual funds, July saw a further outflow of assets totalling EUR 127.6 m in the first seven months of 2008. Only money market mutual funds, which hold over 95% of their assets in bank deposits and loans, enjoyed a positive flow in this period (EUR 5.3 m). On the other hand, stock mutual funds recorded a net outflow of nearly EUR 100 m in this period, against a net inflow of EUR 258.3 m posted in the same period last year (more than 80% of all net inflows). The volume of assets managed by domestic mutual funds decreased by a good fifth over the first seven months this year. It dropped by more than EUR 700 m in absolute terms. This means that less than a fifth of the decline is due to net outflows, while the rest can be attributed to the decrease in the value of investment in the portfolios of mutual funds. Even though the largest drop was recorded in the volume of assets in stock mutual funds, their share is only gradually declining. At the end of July, stock mutual funds thus managed 64.4% of domestic mutual funds' total assets, only two structural points less than at the end of 2007. Graph: Net monthly flows of household deposits in banks and mutual funds 300 200 100 i 0 E CĆ 03 -100 -200 -300 657 -310 o to o > □Savings in banks HMutual funds Source of data: BS, Securities Market Agency; calculations by IMAD. Money Market - Loans Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 8-9/2008 p. 10 Nominal amounts, in EUR m Nominal loan growth, in % Domestic bank loans 31. XII 2007 31. VII 2008 31. VII2008/ 31. VII 2008/ 31. VII 2008/ 30. VI2008 31. XII2007 31. VII 2007 Loans total 26,715.5 30,121.6 1.5 12.7 25.4 Domestic currency loans 24,796.8 27,912.9 1.7 12.6 23.9 Enterprises and NFI 18,509.5 21,226.5 1.7 14.7 27.9 Households 5,781.6 6,226.5 1.8 7.7 16.1 Government 505.7 459.9 -0.4 -9.1 -17.3 Foreign currency loans 1,918.7 2,208.7 -1.2 15.1 46.4 Enterprises and NFI 869.2 899.5 -2.9 3.5 28.7 Households 1,036.1 1,294.7 0.1 25.0 63.2 Government 13.4 1 4.5 -2.4 8.2 -10.8 Household loans by purpose 6,817.7 7,521.2 1.5 10.3 22.2 Consumer credits 2,742.5 2,868.2 0.8 4.6 13.3 Lending for house purchase 2,667.9 3,1 10.5 1.2 16.6 31.7 Other lending 1,407.3 1,542.5 3.5 9.6 22.0 Source of data: BS Bulletin, calculations by IMAD. Note: NFI - non-monetary financial institutions. Lending activity continued to decline in July. Following the slowdown in corporate and NFI borrowing recorded already at the beginning of the year, household borrowing also started to moderate somewhat faster over the last few months. Growth in the total volume of loans did not exceed 2% for the sixth month in a row. The y-o-y growth rate already saw a 6.9 p.p. drop this year, hitting a 12-month low. Foreign currency borrowing is slowing faster than euro borrowing. In July, the volume of this type of loans recorded the greatest decline since the introduction of the euro. In the first seven months this year, net lending of banks totalled EUR 3,406.1 m, 11.2% less than in the same period last year. Following relatively strong growth in June, corporate and NFI borrowing moderated somewhat again in July. Compared with the previous month, a decline was observed in the growth rates of working capital loans (1.4%, this year's monthly average being 1.7%), as well as investment loans (1.4%, the average 2.2%). In July, the y-o-y growth rate of loans to enterprises and NFI (27.9%) dropped to its lowest level in the last 15 months. Enterprises and NFI net repaid foreign currency loans for the fourth successive month. Net flows of domestic bank loans to enterprises and NFI totalled EUR 2,747.3 m in the first seven months of 2008, a good 12.6% less than in the same period last year. Borrowing abroad has strengthened somewhat in recent months. In the seven months to July, net borrowing of enterprises and NFI abroad thus amounted to EUR 267.8 m, which is still almost 25% less than in the comparable period last year. Banks' borrowing abroad moderated significantly in July, after recording a high figure in June. Monthly net flows totalled only EUR 30.3 m. Banks thus net borrowed EUR 1,926.8 m in the first seven months, almost 30% more than in the comparable period last year. More than 55% of loans are attributable to extensive borrowing in June, which topped EUR 1 bn (one of the major banks borrowed as much as EUR 750 m) and was, at the monthly level, the second highest borrowing to date. The maturity structure of debt continues to deteriorate - short-term loans accounted for more than half of all foreign loans in the first seven months this year, compared with less than a fifth in the same period last year. Monthly growth of the volume of household loans strengthened somewhat in July, but the y-o-y growth rate continues to decline and was at its lowest since comparable data have been available. Loans for other purposes contributed almost half to the 1.5% monthly growth in July, probably reflecting a seasonal increase in negative balances on bank accounts associated with increased household spending during the summer months. Growth rates of consumer loans continued to hover below 1%, while growth of housing loans posted a significant slowdown, reaching its lowest level in the last three years. In the first seven months of 2008, households net borrowed EUR 703.5 m, almost a tenth less than in the comparable period last year. Lending activity of banks also continued to moderate in EMU. In July, the total volume of loans recorded 9.8% growth, year on year, the lowest figure in 2008. In the first seven months, banks granted loans in the amount of EUR 536.9 bn, 13.5% less than in the comparable period last year. Graph 1: Evolution of y-o-y growth rates of loans Graph 2: Net borrowing of banks abroad 40 35 30 25 % 20 15 10 5 0 CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO 0 CO o .200 900 o 600 EE rr -j LU 300 0 -300 IzzJ 1=3 oShort-term loans □ Long-term loans m n m. I a e y i • Total —□— Households ■ Enterprises and NFI ................. Total, EMU Households, EMU -----Enterprises and NFI, EMU Source of data: Eurostat; Consensus Forecasts, September 2007. N I-^I-^I-^cococococococo ooooooooooooooooooo d JD J= ^ £Z a> Q. -w >o £Z .Q ^ £Z ote: forecasts from Q3 2007 onwards. Labour Market Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 8-9/2008 p. 11 Thousands of people Growth, in % Selected labour market indicators I-XII XII VI VII I-VI2008/ I-VII 2008/ 0 2007/ 2007 2007 2008 2008 I-VI2007 I-VII 2007 0 2006 A Registered labour force (A = B + C) 925.3 932.8 942.7 941.4 2.0 1.9 1.6 Persons in formal employment* 854.0 864.4 882.0 879.9 3.3 3.2 3.5 in enterprises and organisations 696.1 705.9 720.2 718.5 3.5 3.4 3.1 by those self-employed 69.9 70.8 72.6 72.7 4.3 4.1 5.1 self-employed and farmers 87.9 87.7 89.2 88.8 1.2 1.3 5.6 Registered unemployed 71.3 68.4 60.7 61.6 -13.4 -13.2 -16.9 women 39.1 36.7 32.4 33.0 -15.8 -15.9 -16.7 aged over 40 37.1 36.3 34.5 34.6 -6.3 -6.3 -6.5 unemployed more than 1 year 36.5 34.7 32.2 32.1 -12.1 -11.8 -12.8 Rate of reg. unemployment (C/A), in % 7.7 7.3 6.4 6.5 - - - D male 6.3 6.1 5.4 5.4 - - - female 9.6 8.9 7.8 8.0 - - - Job vacancies 20.2 14.2 20.2 19.8 3.2 3.4 6.6 for a fixed term, in % 76.3 69.8 74.9 76.9 - - - F New jobs 13.3 9.7 12.5 12.7 2.6 3.2 2.6 Sources of data: SORS, ESS; calculations by IMAD. Note: 'persons in employment according to administrative sources. Favourable trends in the labour market continued in the summer despite seasonal impacts. Formal employment rose by 0.3% in June, as in April and May. The largest increase was again recorded in construction, while mining and education were the only activities to post a decline. In July, formal employment declined by 0.2%, mostly due to layoffs of temporary workers and the lower estimated number of farmers. Growth in the number of formally employed persons declined again in June, year on year, but remained at the same level in July, at 3.0%. Seasonally adjusted monthly growth stayed at 0.2%. The number of persons in employment according to the labour force survey increased in the second quarter for seasonal reasons, while it dropped year on year. Even though employment according to the survey increased by 19,000 persons, or 2.0% relative to the previous quarter, the increase does not exceed the usual seasonal growth; seasonally adjusted growth only totalled 0.1%. The number of persons in employment dropped year on year (by 4,000 persons or 0.4%), which mainly indicates a decrease in informal employment. On the other hand, the number of unemployed persons continued to decline. In the second quarter, the number of unemployed according to the labour force survey dropped by 9,000, or 17.3% (seasonally adjusted by 4.9%), compared with the previous quarter, and by 5,000, or 10.4% (seasonally adjusted by 9.8%), compared with the same quarter of 2007. In July, the number of registered unemployed increased to 61,550 for seasonal reasons, after declining to 60,710 in June due to layoffs of temporary workers before the summer holidays. In August it dropped again, to 60,669, the lowest figure this year. The unemployment rate also declined. The survey unemployment rate dropped to 4.2% in the second quarter of 2008, 0.9 p.p. less than in the previous quarter, and 0.4 p.p. less than in the same quarter of 2007. The seasonally adjusted survey unemployment rate declined as well, to 4.5%. The seasonally adjusted registered unemployment rate, which remained at 6.7% in the period from April to June, dropped to 6.6% in July. Y-o-y growth of the average number of persons in formal employment was 3.3% in the first half of 2008. The highest y-o-y growth (12.6%) was recorded in construction, while growth rates in business services (7.6%), transport (6.6%), and other community, social and personal services (4.6%) were high as well. Compared with the first quarter of 2007, the number of persons in formal employment fell in mining (by 4.8%), agriculture, fishing and energy. In manufacturing, this number was 0.1% higher. In August, fewer persons lost and more unemployed persons found work than in the previous months. In July, the number of persons who lost work increased for the third month in a row, to 4,613, and dropped to 3,387 in August. At the same time, the number of unemployed who found work declined again in July (for the sixth consecutive month, to a mere 2,315), and increased in August to 3,134. The inflow of first-time job seekers remained within the usual seasonal limits, and deletions from the unemployment registers for other reasons did not exceed the usual 2008 level. Graph: Survey unemployment rates by quarter, 2003-2008, in % ■ Women Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ■ Total (seasonally adjusted) Source of data: SORS. 9 8 7 Wages Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 8-9/2008 p. 12 Gross wage per employee, growth index Wages in EUR V 2008 In nominal terms In real terms1 VII08/ VI08 VII08/ VII07 I-VII 08/ I-VII 07 VII08/ VI08 VII08/ VII07 I-VII 08/ I-VII 07 Gross wage per employee, total 1,372.46 100.6 108.7 108.3 100.6 101.7 101.6 Private sector (A-K) 1,298.63 100.6 110.1 109.0 100.6 103.0 102.3 A Agriculture 1,159.78 104.7 112.7 110.0 104.7 105.4 103.2 B Fisheries 1,141.73 98.0 112.5 107.7 98.0 105.3 101.3 Industry and construction (C, D, E, F) 1,225.21 101.0 110.8 109.1 101.0 103.6 102.3 C Mining 1,783.25 101.0 117.5 112.9 101.0 109.9 105.9 D Manufacturing 1,209.27 100.9 110.8 109.2 100.9 103.7 102.5 E Electricity, gas, and water supply 1,713.34 100.9 114.1 109.9 100.9 106.7 103.1 F Construction 1,154.38 102.3 109.9 108.7 102.3 102.8 102.0 Production services (G, H, I) 1,264.52 100.7 108.9 108.4 100.7 101.8 101.7 G Wholesale and retail trade 1,240.88 101.3 109.2 108.4 101.3 102.2 101.7 H Hotels and restaurants 1,016.12 100.2 110.5 110.2 100.2 103.3 103.4 I Transport, storage & communications 1,427.45 99.6 107.4 107.8 99.6 100.5 101.1 Business services (J, K) 1,593.51 99.2 109.3 109.1 99.2 102.2 102.4 J Financial intermediation 1,960.16 95.1 106.9 108.2 95.1 100.0 101.5 K Real estate, renting, business services 1,472.78 101.1 110.7 109.9 101.1 103.6 103.1 Public services (L, M, N, O) 1,596.66 100.5 105.8 106.9 100.5 99.0 100.3 L Public administration 1,683.81 101.3 107.6 110.4 101.3 100.7 103.6 M Education 1,648.55 100.3 105.0 105.5 100.3 98.2 99.0 N Health and social work 1,491.20 100.9 104.8 105.3 100.9 98.0 98.8 O Other social and personal services 1,482.21 98.7 106.0 105.6 98.7 99.1 99.1 Source of data: SORS and IMAD calculations for the private sector and public services. Note: 1Deflated by the consumer price index. In July, the nominal gross wage per employee increased by 0.6%; given that prices remained unchanged in July, real growth totalled 0.6% as well. Also in the private sector (A to K) the gross wage rose by 0.6% in nominal terms. Even though July was three working days longer, the additional days did not have a significant impact on wage rises, which was mainly due to collective holidays in enterprises in this month following the usual seasonal dynamics. Particularly the group of business services (J, K) stands out among the activities, due to the usual seasonal swings. The gross wage in public services (L to O) increased by 0.5% in nominal terms, the most in public administration, which was probably still linked to overtime work and increased workload related to the Slovenian Presidency of the EU. In the first seven months, the gross wage increased by 8.3% in nominal terms, year on year, and by 1.6% in real terms, given that inflation amounted to 6.6%. The extraordinary adjustment of wages for higher-than-expected inflation in 2007 performed in both the private and public sector at the beginning of the year, along with regular events, such as the growth of private sector wages in March due to the disbursement of performance bonuses, and July's regular adjustment of public sector wages, contributed to the fact that the nominal gross wage level in July was 2.2% higher than in December 2007, while the gross wage level in July 2007 was equal to that in December 2006. The impact of extraordinary payments in the private sector was greater than expected at the beginning of the year, and the current wage trends are at a higher level than projected in the spring forecast. In the public sector, wages for August were already paid in accordance with the new wage system, but the agreed volume of funds to eliminate wage disparities was larger than estimated at the beginning of the year (a 14.5% wage increase; when the spring forecast was being prepared, the increase was estimated at 10.8%). For these reasons we expect that the nominal increase in the average gross wage in 2008 will be higher than projected in the spring, whereas real gross wage growth will be slightly weaker as a result of this year's higher inflation than anticipated in the spring. Graph: Nominal gross wage per employee by group of activities 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 -Total -------Private sector (A to K) -*-Public services Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2007 2 008 Jul —□-Industry, construction —* Production services ♦ Business services Sources of data: SORS, BS; calculations by IMAD. Manufacturing Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 8-9/2008 p. 13 Selected economic indicators, growth rates, in % VII2008/ VI2008 VII2008/ VII2007 I-VII 2008/ I-VII 2007 I-XII 2007/ I-XII 2006 Production value1 -5.2 -3.0 1.8 7.5 - highly export-oriented industries2 -11.9 -2.0 8.9 16.4 - mainly export-oriented industries3 -4.2 -5.0 -1.5 5.7 - mainly domestic market-oriented industries4 5.6 0.5 0.0 0.7 Average number of employees -0.5 -0.4 0.1 0.9 Labour productivity -4.7 -2.6 1.8 6.6 Level of inventories5 -2.9 4.3 9.2 8.3 Turnover5 -1.8 -0.6 2.7 6.8 New orders5 -11.9 -13.2 -9.6 4.5 Domestic industrial producer prices 0.4 5.1 3.5 3.5 - domestic market 0.5 7.1 6.0 4.3 - foreign market 0.4 3.5 1.4 2.9 Source of data: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: Veal growth calculated on the basis of data on production value - SORS' recalculation with the IPI (provisional data); Manufacturing industries (DG, DK, DM) which have, according to data on Slovenian commercial companies from the AJPES, earned over 70% of their average net revenue from sales on foreign markets in the last three years on average; Manufacturing industries (DB, DC, DD, DH, DJ, DL, DN) which have earned 50-70% of their average net revenue from sales on foreign markets in the last three years on average; "manufacturing industries (DA, DE, DF, DI) which have earned less than 50% of their average net revenue from sales on foreign markets _in the last three years; 5real growth._ Following weak industrial production growth in the first six months of this year, production activity continued to moderate in July. In the first six months of 2008, manufacturing's industrial production was 2.5% higher compared to the same period of 2007 (working-day adjusted data). The significant slowdown following last year's strong 7.5% growth was also observed in other EU Member States, albeit to a somewhat lesser extent.1 Last year, the volume of manufacturing production in the EU-27 increased by 3.9% on average, in real terms, while it recorded 1.7% growth in the first six months of this year. Looking at Slovenia's four largest partners in intra-industry trade in the EU, the slowdown in production growth in Slovenia was faster than in Germany and Austria, which still recorded relatively favourable production growth rates in the first half of this year: 4.1% and 3.5%, respectively (see Graph 1). Meanwhile in Italy and France, low production activity from the previous year continued also in the first half of 2008. In July, the slowdown in production activity continued and was even more pronounced than in the first six months. Relative to July 2007, production volumes even decreased, by 5.0% in Slovenia and by 1.5% in the EU-27 (working-day adjusted). 1 The faster deceleration in the first six months can be in great part explained by the y-o-y decline in the volume of the Slovenian metal industry production, while growth of the metal industry production in the EU-27 moderated on average, but remained positive. In addition, in Slovenia the metal industry also accounts for a larger share in manufacturing. Fast moderation in production growth was followed by a delayed decline in employment. After the significant slowdown in production observed in the first seven months this year, the number of employees remained at approximately the same level as in 2007. Year on year, the number of employed persons did not drop (for the first time since November 2006) until June and July (by 0.1% and 0.4%, respectively). The gradual adjustment of the number of employees to production volumes was reflected in weaker productivity growth which rose by 6.6% last year, in real terms, and by a mere 1.8% on average in the first seven months this year. In the first seven months, real growth of wages in manufacturing (5.5%; deflated by PPI) thus surpassed productivity growth, while it was significantly lower even as late as last year. Business expectations for the next months are modest. The seasonally adjusted value of the confidence indicator dropped again compared to August. The expectations for the next three months deteriorated and the value of order-books declined, while stocks of finished products increased (the three confidence indicator components). In September, the share of respondents reporting a decline in export order-books topped the share of those reporting an increase by as much as 20 p.p. (making it the lowest value of the export order-books indicator since September 2003). Similarly, the indicator of expectations for total demand in the next three months reached its lowest value since December 2001. Accordingly, the expectations for employment in the coming months decreased further in September (see Graph 2). Graph 1: Y-o-y industrial production growth, _three-month moving averages_ Graph 2: Confidence indicator and expected _employment in Slovenian manufacturing_ 25 E D Ï 15 Ü 5 -5 o f^ m Œ -15 O -25 iT -35 - Confidence indicator - Expected employment Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul 06 06 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 Source of data: Eurostat; Consensus Forecasts, September 2007. N ote: forecasts from Q3 2007 onwards. Construction Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 8-9/2008 p. 14 Selected construction indicators, real indexes VII2008/ VII2007 Q2 2008/ Q2 2007 2007/ 2006 Value of construction put in place 118.0 116.5 118.2 Buildings 103.4 107.9 115.7 Residential buildings 184.1 155.0 99.8 Non-residential buildings .1 97.1 120.1 Civil engineering 129.4 123.0 124.1 Value of the stock of contracts , (nominal) 107.4 113.3 131. Value of new contracts1 (nominal) 86.7 83.2 97.6 Number of people employed in construction 112.1 112.2 111.3 Average gross wage per worker employed in construction 102.8 102.7 102.8 Sources of data: SORS, CCIS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: the survey covers all construction firms whose turnover value according to annual accounts for 2005 reached at least EUR 1.45 m and company units engaged in construction employing at least 20 workers, as well as several non-construction firms that perform out construction services; 2end of period; 3deflated by the CPI. Construction activity moderated in the second quarter, but was still notably higher than last year. After strengthening significantly in the first quarter according to seasonally adjusted data, the value of construction put in place decreased for the rest of the year. Despite the decline, activity remained high; compared with the same period last year, the value of construction put in place increased by 16.5% in the second quarter, and by 18.0% in July. Activity declined from the record highs reached at the beginning of the year in all segments of construction; the largest drop was observed in non-residential construction. While in the first quarter activity strengthened in all segments of construction according to seasonally adjusted data, it slowed in all segments in the second quarter. The slowdown was particularly notable in non-residential construction, and in the second quarter (and also in July), the value of construction put in place was already lower than in the same period last year (see table). In civil engineering, the slowdown of activity was the least intense, so that the value of construction put in place was higher than last year. This value was higher than last year also in construction of residential buildings. In interpreting data on the value of residential construction, we should bear in mind that these figures exclude the activity of smaller firms (see note below table), where the main activity is construction of buildings, by our estimate. Data on business tendencies in construction and data on contracts suggest that the slowdown in construction activity continues. According to business tendencies in construction, the value of the overall order-books indicator was lower than in the same month last year in all nine months of 2008 to date. The value of the expected order-books indicator was lower than in the last six months of 2007 (since April). According to construction statistics, the value of the stock of contracts in July was 7.4% higher than in the same month last year, which was the weakest growth recorded in the last two and a half years. In the first quarter, the contractual value for new contracts was more than 50% higher than in the same period last year, while in the following four months it was more than 15% lower. Growth in the number of employed persons continued in the middle of the year. In the second quarter, but also in July, the number of persons employed in construction was more than 12% higher than in the same period last year. Data on issued building permits also indicate that the slowdown is set to continue. According to temporary data on building permits issued for the second quarter of 2008, the total planned floor area of all buildings was 39.3% smaller than in the same period last year. A decline was recorded in the areas planned for residential (by 38.6%), as well as non-residential buildings (by 40.4%). In the last year (four quarters), the total planned area of residential buildings shrank by 6.5% relative to the previous period (the first decline after five years of growth), while the total planned floor area of non-residential buildings dropped by 19.0% (with the value of this indicator decreasing for the fifth quarter in a row). Among the main categories of non-residential buildings, the total planned floor area of office buildings, wholesale and retail trade buildings and industrial buildings and warehouses decreased, while the total planned area of hotels and similar buildings increased. Graph 1: Indices of construction put in place, seasonally adjusted, three-month moving averages Graph 2: Business tendency in construction, seasonally adjusted, three-month moving averages s > o ro E a) co £ ■u of 8 u ■ffi J^ll d roo >o ro :: racN = P1^ 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 40 I » 30 m rö 20 Overall order-books Volume of construction works ■ i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i IOIOIOIOIOIOCOCOCOCOCOCOI^I^I^I^I^I^COCOCOCOCO ooooooooooooooooooooooo (flZ^-22 (flZ^-22 (flZ Source of data: SORS; calculations by IMAD. ro .^ro (Duro.^ro=;cDOro.iyro^cDO mz^Ss^mz^Ss^mz Source of data: SORS; calculations by IMAD. . ^ a (D m Private Consumption & Household Indebtedness Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 8-9/2008 p. 15 Selected private consumption and household indebtedness indicators Real year-on-year growth rates, %* I-VI 2007 I-VI 2008 Mass of net wages 1 7.7 4.2 Turnover in retail trade 2 4.9 6.2 New car registrations 3 10.9 11.6 Consumer confidence indicator 4 -8.2 -18.5 Commercial banks' loans to households (end-of-period stock) 5 24.6 23.2 Household savings in banks (end-of-period stock)5 9.9 10.4 Sources of data: SORS, DUNZ, MF, calculations by IMAD. Notes: *unless otherwise indicated; According to SORS data on the average net wage and persons employed by legal entities, calculated for the month of payment;2 calculation from original volume indices, SORS, 3increase in the number of cars, DUNZ, "original value, SORS, 5 nominal increases. According to the first annual estimate, household consumption increased by 5.3% last year. The largest increases were seen in household expenditure on durable goods. The relatively high 2007 growth - the average annual growth in 2000-2006 totalled only 2.5%, according to the revised data - was most likely due to the increase in disposable income on account of the personal income tax scale changes and favourable developments on the labour market. In the structure of goods by durability, expenditure on durables has seen the largest increase over the past years, rising by a good tenth per year in 2001-2007 on average, in real terms, followed by services with 3.7% real growth. Within services, the largest rises were posted in household expenditure for education (by 23.0% in real terms), hotels, cafes and restaurants (15.5%), and transport (12.1%) where vehicle purchases increased notably for the second year in a row (2006: 17.6%; 2007: 21.5%; 2001-2007 average: 11.9%). Relatively high growth in consumption of durable goods continued in the first half of this year. The number of new car registrations was more than a tenth higher than in the first half of 2007.1 Within retail trade, the highest rises continued to be recorded in the group of furniture, household equipment and construction material (12.9%; against 22.0% in the first half of 2007). The time series for registrations by natural persons is not yet long enough to compare the growth rates of 2007 and 2008; in the first half of 2008, natural persons registered 19,712 cars by our estimate, 6.5% more than last year. Consistent with the aforementioned new registrations, turnover in the sale of motor vehicles, motorcycles, spare parts and accessories increased by 17.1% (against 17.8% in the first half of 2007). In the third quarter, a slowdown in the number of new car registrations was observed after almost two years of strong growth. In July and August together, growth totalled only 1.4%. In the third quarter of 2008, consumers were nevertheless somewhat more optimistic regarding the price dynamics than in the same period of 2007, though they remained less positive about all other sub-indicators. A decreased value of net loans can also be indicative of a slowdown in consumption growth. In the first seven months, the value of net loans to households dropped by almost a tenth compared with the same period last year. This was largely the consequence of a decrease in net consumer borrowing, since the volume of consumer loans taken out by households in the first seven months almost halved relative to the same period last year. Net flows of housing loans are still higher (by 9.1%) than in the same period of 2007, but their growth rates are falling from month to month. The volume of housing loans, which accounted for 41.4% in the structure at the end of July (3 p.p. more than the year before), increased by almost a third year on year (against 39.1% in the same period of 2007); consumer loans increased by 13.3% (16.9%) and other loans by 22.0% (18.9%). Graph: Selected short-term private consumption indicators and net flows of loans and savings in banks 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 E tm z> Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 'Net flows of consumer and other loans, right axis r.v.y.y.vi Net flows of housing loans, right axis ■ Turnover in retail trade ----Net wage bill, calculated for month of payment Sources of data: SORS, BS; calculations by IMAD. Distributive Trades Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 8-9/2008 p. 16 Selected distributive trades indicators, growth rates (%) Q1 2008/ Q12007 Q2 2008/ Q22007 Q1 2007/ Q1 2006 Q2 2007/ Q22006 Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor vehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels 16.3 13.4 5.7 8.3 Real turnover in retail trade 6.4 6.1 6.0 3.9 Sale of food, beverages, and tobacco 4.8 5.9 4.3 -3.4 Sale of non-food products 7.9 6.1 7.8 11.7 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles and in retail sale of automotive fuel 27.2 21.4 5.5 13.0 Motor vehicles, motorcycles, parts, and accessories 24.6 10.0 13.6 22.2 Maintenance and repair of motor vehicles 6.4 10.2 -0.7 7.8 Automotive fuel 35.8 42.5 -3.7 1.4 Total nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade1 21.1 23.5 19.6 15.1 Average number of employed persons2 4.4 3.7 2.0 2.9 Average gross wage per employee2, 3 0.8 2.2 5.5 4.3 Real growth of value added in distributive trades2, 4 8.7 9.4 8.2 7.7 Source of data: SORS, calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1only nominal indices are published; 2in wholesale and retail trade, the repair of motor vehicles, and personal and household goods; 3deflated by the consumer price index, "quarterly value added growth rates are not yet adjusted to the revised annual data. High real growth of value added in wholesale and retail trade, the repair of motor vehicles and consumer goods (activity G) was again recorded in the second quarter of 2008. It totalled 9.4% in real terms year on year and even increased relative to the previous quarter. High value added growth was underpinned by growth of nominal turnover in wholesale trade and merchanting (23.5%), which strengthened in the second quarter again, and high real growth of turnover in the retail sale and maintenance of motor vehicles and in the retail sale of automotive fuels (13.4%). Real growth of turnover in the retail sale and maintenance of motor vehicles and in the retail sale of automotive fuels in the second quarter was stronger than in the same period last year, but moderated somewhat relative to the previous quarter. High growth in retail trade resulted from strengthened growth in the sale of food, beverages and tobacco (see graph) on account of the real increase of turnover in non-specialised shops predominantly selling food (6.4%) where positive growth rates were posted in both quarters of 2008, while turnover in specialised shops declined in real terms for the second consecutive quarter year on year (by 5.3%). Growth in the retail sale of non-food products was still high, but eased off somewhat relative to the previous quarter, particularly in the sale of pharmaceutical, medicinal and cosmetic products (from 10.6% to 5.6%), and somewhat also in the sale of furniture, household equipment and construction material (from 13.4% to 12.4%). Strong growth of real turnover was again recorded in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles and in the retail sale of automotive fuels, which slowed somewhat relative to the previous quarter. The slowdown was due to lower growth rates in the sale of motor vehicles, motorcycles, spare parts and accessories, compared with the previous quarter (see table). Weaker growth in the sale of motor vehicles is also indicated by the number of new car registrations, which moderated for the second quarter in a row (from 13.4% to 10.0%), being lower than in the same period last year when it totalled 13.2%. Growth in the number of employees in wholesale and retail trade was still strong. Even though it slowed for the second quarter in a row, it was still higher than in the second quarter of 2007. Growth in the number of persons in employment slowed both in retail (from 4.2% to 2.9%) and wholesale trade (from 4.4% to 3.9%) and was comparable with growth rates in the same period of 2007, which were 3.1% for retail and 3.7% for wholesale trade. Growth in the number of employees in the sale of motor vehicles strengthened for the fifth consecutive quarter (5.7% growth) and was notably higher than in the same quarter last year when it stood at 0.2%. The average wage per employee increased as well (up 2.2% in real terms). The largest wage rises were observed in wholesale trade and merchanting (up 3.5%), and in the sale of motor vehicles (up 3.3%), and after a two-year decline, also in retail trade (up 0.6%). Graph 1: Y-o-y turnover growth in retail trade Graph 2: Y-o-y growth in the number of employees in distributive trades ■ Retail trade s= 10 in E (D 75 5 —O— Retail sale of food, beveragesand tobacco -------Retail sale of non-food products 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -Total G —G— Sale of motor vehicles -------Wholesale trade -*-Retail trade Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2006 2007 2008 Source of data: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2006 2007 2008 Source of data: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 20 0 Tourism Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 8-9/2008 p. 17 Selected indicators for tourism & hotels Q1 2008/ Q2 2008/ Q12007/ Q2 2007/ 2007/ and restaurants, growth rates (%) Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 2006 Overnight stays, total 4.2 1.0 4.8 10.1 7.0 Domestic tourists 4.8 4.6 0.5 13.7 4.9 Foreign tourists 3.6 -1.3 9.0 7.9 8.4 Average number of people in employment1 4.3 2.8 2.1 3.1 3.5 Average gross wage per employee1, 2 3.3 3.5 1.6 2.3 2.2 Prices of hotel and restaurant services, total3 9.3 10.0 6.9 6.6 7.3 Prices of catering services3 10.1 11.0 7.6 7.2 8.3 Prices of accommodation services3 6.3 11.5 4.0 3.8 3.6 Turnover in hotels and restaurants (real terms) -2.1 -2.2 -1.5 -0.5 0.3 Accommodation and related services -3.4 -2.0 -2.3 -0.5 1.8 Food serving services -0.4 -2.6 -1.5 -1.6 -1.9 Drink serving services -6.4 -3.3 -3.9 -4.4 -6.1 Source of data: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1hotels and restaurants; 2deflated by the CPI; 3CPI group or sub-group. Growth of the number of tourist overnight stays moderated significantly in the second quarter. The number of overnight stays and the number of tourist arrivals rose by 1.0% and 3.5%, respectively, year on year. In the second quarter, the number of overnight stays made by foreign tourists dropped by 1.3%, or by 16,232, while growth of domestic tourists' overnight stays slowed to 4.6%. Through June, the number of overnight stays increased by 2.3%, year on year (foreign tourists' stays by 0.6% and domestic tourists' stays by 4.7%). Lower year-on-year growth rates in the second quarter are largely due to the different timing of the Easter holiday in 2007 and 2008 and unfavourable weather conditions in June. The number of overnight stays in April was 8.5% lower, year on year. Overnight stays by foreign tourists declined by a fifth due to a decline in the number of overnight stays in health, seaside and mountain resorts, where overnight stays by domestic tourists decreased as well. June saw a drop in foreign and domestic tourists' overnight stays, year on year, particularly due to the lower inflow to mountain and seaside resorts (by 2.4% in total). In the first quarter, foreign exchange receipts from travel increased somewhat less than in the previous quarter (by 0.4 p.p., to 12.3%), and also less than in the same period last year (21.1%). In the second quarter, growth of business travel exports moderated notably, while growth of private travel exports was somewhat weaker than in the previous quarter (see Graph 1). Similar trends continued in July, when growth of business as well as private travel exports moderated again. Despite high price rises, real turnover in hotels and restaurants declined in the second quarter again. Significant price rises were seen in catering, as well as in accommodation services, where growth is now comparable with that of catering services, after seeing moderate growth rates in the previous year. Real turnover declined again in all groups of activities, with the drink-serving activity posting the greatest drop (see Graph 2). Growth in the number of employees in hotels and restaurants slowed for the second consecutive quarter, while the average gross wage per employee increased again. Weaker, 2.8% y-o-y growth resulted from weaker growth in restaurants, where growth moderated for the first time since the second quarter of 2006, and in the drink-serving activity, which recorded negative growth for the third quarter in a row. Growth in the number of employees was the lowest in the past four quarters, when it was 4.0% on average, also due to the slowdown in the activity of hotels and similar establishments (by 2.7 p.p., to 6.3%). While growth in the number of employees moderated in the second quarter, growth of the average gross wage per employee picked up, with the highest growth rates recorded in hotels and similar establishments (4.1%), and in restaurants (3.9%). In the first six months, real growth of the average gross wage per employee was largely due to the increase in the lowest basic wage in April and a higher volume of overtime work than in the first half of 2007. Graph 1: Exports by type of travel Graph 2: Turnover growth in hotels and restaurants, in real terms 400 350 300 250 ■g 200 'E 150 tr =3 100 50 0 -50 -100 25 20 Sä Ï 15 2 ct 10 I O 5 S 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2006 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 10 f" 5 0 S 0 (U 1 -5 I -10 -15 s Business travel, balance Business travel exports (right axis) Private travel, balance Private travel exports (right axis) Source of data: Eurostat; Consensus F Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2006 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 orecasts, September 2007. Note: forecasts from Q3 2007 onwards. Gross Domestic Product / I Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 8-9/2008 p. A 2 2004-2006 constant previous year prices, 2007-2010 constant 2006 prices In EUR m (fixed 2007 exchange rate) Real growth rates in % 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 forecast forecast VALUE ADDED BY ACTIVITIES AND GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT A Agriculture, hunting, forestry 605 627 649 571 560 580 591 -1.2 -4.0 -11.1 -2.0 3.5 2.0 B Fishing 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 12.6 -1.9 0.6 0.0 1.5 1.5 C Mining and quarrying 117 128 136 130 127 127 123 0.5 7.1 -3.0 -2.5 -0.5 -3.0 D Manufacturing 5,864 6,075 6,430 6,911 7,052 7,204 7,564 3.7 7.5 7.8 2.1 2.1 5.0 E Electricity, gas and water supply 683 751 806 765 826 801 801 5.1 5.9 -6.5 8.0 -3.0 0.0 F Construction 1,381 1,571 1,956 2,298 2,630 2,657 2,750 6.1 15.4 16.0 14.5 1.0 3.5 G Wholesale, retail; certain repairs 2,645 2,864 3,158 3,364 3,566 3,728 3,878 4.6 5.4 5.8 6.0 4.5 4.0 H Hotels and restaurants 481 546 585 681 698 720 745 4.2 1.9 8.7 2.5 3.0 3.5 I Transport, storage and communications 1,674 1,834 2,034 2,229 2,363 2,494 2,631 5.7 9.7 9.2 6.0 5.5 5.5 J Financial intermediation 1,073 1,168 1,184 1,510 1,660 1,777 1,911 13.2 9.1 13.8 10.0 7.0 7.5 K Real estate, renting and business services 3,749 4,115 4,523 5,112 5,417 5,636 5,890 2.2 6.3 11.2 6.0 4.0 4.5 L Public administration and defence 1,398 1,474 1,556 1,623 1,638 1,655 1,672 2.7 2.9 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 M Education 1,257 1,375 1,438 1,525 1,553 1,583 1,617 3.7 1.2 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.1 N Health and social work 1,152 1,251 1,305 1,343 1,372 1,414 1,459 5.1 2.1 0.9 2.2 3.0 3.2 O Other community and personal services 760 889 925 959 973 988 1,003 5.7 0.7 -2.1 1.5 1.5 1.5 P Private households with employed persons 15 20 18 19 19 20 20 5.9 -3.5 0.6 0.2 1.0 1.0 VALUE ADDED (A+...+P) 22,858 24,692 26,707 29,045 30,459 31,388 32,658 4.3 6.2 6.8 4.9 3.1 4.0 Taxes on products and services 3,455 3,689 3,843 4,190 4,358 4,506 4,686 4.8 3.9 6.0 4.0 3.4 4.0 Less: subsidies on products and services 122 130 151 130 136 143 147 -0.8 -0.7 -2.8 5.0 4.5 2.9 GDP 26,191 28,251 30,398 33,106 34,680 35,752 37,198 4.3 5.9 6.8 4.8 3.1 4.0 Sources of data: SORS 2004-2007, IMAD's Autumn Forecast 2008. Gross Domestic Product / II Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No.8-9/2008 p. A 3 In EUR m (fixed 2007 exchange rate), current prices Structure in %, current prices, GDP=100 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20010 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20010 forecast forecast SUPPLY AND USE OF GROSS NATIONAL DISPOSABLE INCOME 1. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 27,073 28,704 31,008 34,471 37,725 40,343 43,470 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 2. Net primary income with the rest of the world -313 -244 -368 -679 -971 -1,010 -1,057 -0.8 -1.2 -2.0 -2.6 -2.5 -2.4 3. GROSS NATIONAL INCOME (1+2) 26,760 28,460 30,640 33,792 36,754 39,333 42,413 99.2 98.8 98.0 97.4 97.5 97.6 4. Net current transfers with the rest of the world -44 -144 -216 -262 -290 -73 -83 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.2 -0.2 5. GROSS NATIONAL DISPOSABLE INCOME (3+4) 26,716 28,316 30,424 33,531 36,464 39,260 42,330 98.6 98.1 97.3 96.7 97.3 97.4 6. Final consumption expenditure 19,996 21,053 22,263 24,080 26,747 28,938 31,126 73.3 71.8 69.9 70.9 71.7 71.6 Private consumption 14,879 15,601 16,438 17,984 19,967 21,479 22,983 54.4 53.0 52.2 52.9 53.2 52.9 Government consumption 5,117 5,452 5,825 6,096 6,780 7,459 8,143 19.0 18.8 17.7 18.0 18.5 18.7 7. GROSS SAVINGS (5-6) 6,720 7,263 8,161 9,451 9,717 10,323 11,204 25.3 26.3 27.4 25.8 25.6 25.8 8. GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION 7,428 7,769 8,904 10,840 11,920 12,223 12,967 27.1 28.7 31.4 31.6 30.3 29.8 9. SURPLUS ON THE CURRENT ACCOUNT WITH THE ROW (7-8) -708 -506 -743 -1,390 -2,203 -1,900 -1,764 -1.8 -2.4 -4.0 -5.8 -4.7 -4.1 Sources of data: SORS 2004-2007, BS; IMAD's Autumn Forecast 2008. EXPENDITURE STRUCTURE OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, 2004-2006 constant previous year prices, 2007-2010 constant 2006 prices In EUR m (fixed 2007 exchange rate Real growth rates, in % GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (3+4+5) 26,191 28,251 30,398 33,106 34,680 35,752 37,198 4.3 5.9 6.8 4.8 3.1 4.0 1. Exports of goods and services 15,241 17,363 20,101 23,516 25,077 26,394 28,360 10.6 12.5 13.8 6.6 5.2 7.4 2. Imports of goods and services 15,425 17,122 20,162 24,082 25,743 26,760 28,490 6.6 12.2 15.7 6.9 4.0 6.5 3. EXTERNAL BALANCE * (1-2) -183 242 -62 -566 -666 -367 -130 2,2* 0,2* -1,3* -0,3* 0,9* 0,7* 4. FINAL CONSUMPTION 19,389 20,549 21,724 23,239 24,229 25,006 25,840 2.8 3.2 4.4 4.3 3.2 3.3 Private consumption 14,133 14,991 15,759 16,984 17,756 18,387 19,049 2.8 2.8 5.3 4.5 3.5 3.6 Government consumption (individual and collective) 4,941 5,288 5,674 5,971 6,177 6,316 6,480 3.3 4.1 2.5 3.4 2.2 2.6 5. GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION 6,985 7,460 8,736 10,433 11,117 11,113 11,488 0.4 12.5 17.2 6.6 0.0 3.4 Gross fixed capital formation 6,353 7,007 8,015 9,133 9,941 10,065 10,519 3.8 10.4 11.9 8.8 1.3 4.5 Changes in inventories and valuables* 631 453 721 1,300 1,176 1,048 969 -0.8* 0.8* 1.8* -0.4* -0.4* -0.2* Sources of data: SORS 2004-2007, BS, IMAD's Autumn Forecast 2008. Note: *as contributions to real GDP growth (in percentage points). Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD Industrial Production No. 8-9/2008 p. A 4 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2007 2008 2007 2008 QII QIII QIV QI QII 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION by sectors *, indices, 2000=100; 2007 data are provisional INDUSTRY, total 106.9 112.8 116.5 123.7 131.7 132.6 129.3 135.5 129.7 137.1 135.7 135.6 117.2 135.0 147.8 142.0 116.8 124.5 130.1 134.4 139.3 133.0 138.9 131.9 C Mining and quarrying 104.9 97.6 104.2 115.0 118.6 130.4 107.3 125.4 119.3 118.1 121.3 92.5 121.8 107.6 132.8 145.6 97.8 106.0 118.3 133.6 134.5 112.5 107.3 99.5 D Manufacturing 106.5 111.6 115.6 123.2 132.9 134.2 130.9 136.7 130.1 139.1 138.1 138.1 117.1 137.4 150.1 143.1 116.8 124.2 131.0 135.2 140.8 135.2 141.4 134.0 DA Food, beverages, tobacco 99.6 89.4 88.0 87.9 86.8 89.7 88.1 90.4 76.1 83.8 90.6 90.9 89.0 84.5 93.4 89.9 87.9 75.2 77.2 76.0 84.4 83.2 83.9 92.2 DB Textiles & textile products 71.3 61.7 54.1 52.3 51.7 50.7 48.0 49.2 51.6 51.5 51.8 52.2 38.8 52.9 57.6 48.1 41.9 50.2 50.2 54.3 58.4 49.0 47.0 46.4 DC Leather & leather products 72.7 68.2 72.7 76.5 60.1 52.3 59.1 55.9 58.8 54.6 52.4 80.8 51.0 45.6 62.7 63.4 41.6 69.8 53.4 53.3 65.6 48.0 50.3 48.4 DD Wood & wood products 91.0 94.7 100.7 104.1 115.7 124.1 113.7 113.8 107.7 113.9 124.3 121.9 103.4 115.8 131.0 117.3 93.2 97.0 109.9 116.2 120.1 112.9 108.8 115.4 DE Paper, publishing, printing 1 100.6 101.2 104.8 103.9 103.8 102.8 104.8 107.3 102.6 106.9 102.0 108.7 103.8 101.9 111.2 109.4 101.4 100.6 99.6 107.7 110.2 104.6 105.8 106.9 DF Coke, petrol. prod., nuclear fuel 2 36.3 - - - 21.4 18.6 20.1 24.7 25.8 26.5 18.6 20.2 18.8 21.2 25.4 27.8 21.0 25.0 27.7 24.6 28.3 25.1 26.1 24.5 DG Chem., prod., man-made fibers 128.0 147.5 158.7 179.4 218.4 213.9 218.8 239.6 230.1 243.1 235.8 241.5 180.7 234.3 272.5 250.0 196.2 216.4 219.0 255.0 235.6 213.7 280.1 238.6 DH Rubber & plastic products 103.6 116.5 122.2 130.0 142.1 140.4 145.8 145.5 138.0 150.2 145.2 145.0 135.8 156.6 165.8 155.7 115.1 127.8 144.2 142.1 158.4 146.5 145.6 146.7 DI Non-metal mineral products 101.6 84.6 78.7 83.6 87.3 92.5 93.5 88.9 80.1 97.4 96.2 97.0 88.7 94.8 102.3 97.5 66.8 72.8 78.9 88.6 100.3 98.3 93.6 99.6 DJ Basic metals & fabricated. prod. 112.0 107.8 116.3 129.8 141.9 144.5 138.0 138.0 136.8 141.4 147.7 143.8 128.9 141.2 148.5 148.7 116.8 132.7 142.2 135.4 146.2 139.8 138.2 140.1 DK Machinery & equipment nec. 120.9 138.5 140.9 149.5 165.4 164.4 159.3 166.7 166.3 177.6 166.2 162.3 138.3 177.3 180.9 178.7 140.6 155.8 174.0 169.0 174.9 176.9 181.1 163.4 DL Electrical & optical equipment 122.8 153.0 157.7 181.5 195.7 201.0 188.1 204.7 186.6 208.5 203.6 192.3 164.9 207.0 227.1 213.5 173.6 174.9 188.4 196.5 198.9 212.2 214.4 176.4 DM Transport equipment 111.7 152.7 184.7 177.7 205.2 206.5 196.2 222.7 222.7 229.7 218.6 231.0 141.5 216.2 237.5 227.3 203.4 222.5 222.2 223.3 242.2 224.5 222.4 207.6 DN Manufacturing nec. 102.6 103.4 108.7 107.5 104.2 106.5 97.8 107.2 99.4 107.2 105.5 105.6 81.8 105.9 116.3 113.8 91.4 94.9 104.3 98.9 110.8 104.2 106.7 106.1 E Electricity, gas & water supply 3 111.3 132.9 130.9 129.6 115.2 104.2 111.7 118.5 122.1 110.7 101.8 115.0 111.2 109.0 116.4 117.8 121.4 132.2 117.8 116.2 114.1 104.8 113.1 113.8 NUMBER OF PERSONS IN PAID EMPLOYMENT IN INDUSTRY 4 Total, in 1000 255.1 251.7 247.3 243.3 245.1 245.5 244.8 245.6 245.0 245.3 245.6 245.1 244.6 244.8 245.9 246.1 244.8 244.8 244.9 245.5 245.4 245.2 245.3 244.0 C Mining & quarrying 4.8 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 D Manufacturing 238.9 236.1 231.8 227.9 229.9 230.2 229.6 230.4 230.0 230.2 230.3 229.8 229.3 229.7 230.7 230.9 229.7 229.8 229.9 230.4 230.3 230.1 230.2 229.0 E Electricity, gas & water supply 11.4 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 CONSTRUCTION 5, real indices of construction put in place, indices 2000=100 Construction 105.7 108.4 111.7 128.8 152.5 157.8 173.9 174.1 137.8 183.8 166.3 166.1 174.2 181.3 206.8 175.4 140.2 123.1 138.6 151.6 167.6 194.2 189.6 195.9 Buildings 104.9 114.6 126.4 144.2 166.8 172.7 181.6 189.7 168.8 186.4 184.6 184.8 183.1 177.0 195.5 203.4 170.2 166.2 165.6 174.5 168.7 191.5 199.1 191.2 Civil engineering 106.4 102.6 98.0 114.5 143.1 148.1 168.8 163.9 117.4 182.1 154.4 153.8 168.3 184.2 214.3 157.0 120.5 94.8 120.8 136.6 167.0 196.0 183.4 199.0 Persons in paid employment in construction 4 99.1 97.5 102.0 109.6 122.0 120.3 125.3 128.1 128.9 135.1 122.7 124.0 125.2 126.8 128.3 129.1 126.8 127.3 128.8 130.6 133.0 135.1 137.2 139.1 Source of data: SORS. Notes: *From February 2004 onwards the industrial production indices have been provisional. For the period up until January 2004 they are calculated according to data on produced quantities of industrial goods. From February 2004 onwards, data on production value have been taken as the basis for the calculation. The value of production is calculated according to the following formula: turnover in the month (x) + value of stocks in the month (x) - value of stocks in the month (x-1).1Enterprises with activity of publishing are excluded; 2data not published because of confidentiality; 3only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. In January 2005, the SORS adopted a new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARiMa model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labor Force Survey. Data for previous years dating back to January 2000 have also been calculated according to the new methodology. 5The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD Production No. 8-9/2008 p. A 5 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2007 2008 2007 2008 Q„ QIII QIV QI QII 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 TRANSPORT Passenger-km in transport for hire or reward, in m 1,065 980 848 850 817 222 167 21 9 206 226 45 43 79 79 74 67 72 63 71 73 80 73 46 Passenger-km in rail transport, in m 778 764 777 788 812 202 204 21 0 200 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Passenger-km in air transport, in m 837 896 1,019 1,044 1,186 289 459 255 227 366 161 158 1 39 107 77 72 72 73 82 108 114 1 44 179 Tonne-km in rail transport, in m 3,274 3,466 3,402 3,373 3,603 913 865 908 869 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Tonne-km in maritime transport, in m 28,361 37,047 52,513 49,155 46,586 13,224 12,050 10,499 14,524 14,045 4,585 3,676 3,790 3,390 2,628 4,481 4,515 4,650 5,360 4,486 4,516 5,043 4,488 Tonne-km in road transport, in m 7,040 9,007 11,033 12,112 13,734 3,418 3,617 3,596 3,999 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Urban passenger traffic, in m 98.4 100.2 97.2 94.0 90.7 23.3 14.4 26.7 25.5 23.7 4.1 3.8 6.6 8.9 9 8.8 8.5 8.3 8.7 8.5 8 7.2 4.0 Airport passengers traffic, in 000 922 1 ,047 1,228 1,339 1,505 382 535 336 303 464 184 181 1 69 140 102 94 95 97 110 135 148 1 80 203 Harbour freight transport, in 000 t 10,788 12,063 12,625 15,462 15,847 3,967 3,406 4,191 4,249 4,089 1,113 1,167 1,126 1,331 1,422 1,438 1,374 1,571 1,303 1,508 1,307 1,274 1,186 Transport of gas, million m3 1,098 1 ,097 1,136 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - TOURISM, overnight stays, in 000 Total 7,503 7,589 7,573 7,722 8,261 1,997 3,327 1 ,465 1,533 2,017 1,226 1,325 776 573 441 452 486 542 505 519 705 792 1,270 Domestic tourists 3,327 3,226 3,173 3,233 3,393 786 1,253 654 734 822 503 489 261 228 203 223 198 315 221 226 264 332 508 Foreign tourists 4,175 4,363 4,399 4,489 4,868 1,211 2,074 81 1 799 1,195 723 836 515 344 238 229 288 227 284 294 442 460 762 Health resorts 2,360 2,417 2,464 2,550 2,651 636 841 61 4 572 668 282 325 234 233 201 180 177 202 193 204 238 226 307 Seaside 2,010 2,002 1,949 1,925 1,993 535 987 268 215 515 390 390 206 115 88 64 45 71 99 117 164 234 409 AGRICULTURE, slaughter in slaughterhouses, in 000 tons Cattle 43.1 40.1 37.4 37.9 36.2 8.6 8.1 11.5 8.7 8.9 2.6 2.7 2.7 3.5 4.3 3.8 2.9 2.8 3.0 3.3 2.9 2.7 2.4 Pigs 37.3 34.6 31.7 33.6 33.2 8.5 7.8 8.7 8.3 8.5 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.8 2.6 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.4 Poultry 56.0 52.0 53.4 49.2 58.9 14.3 15.2 15.6 14.2 14.9 5.2 5.1 4.8 5.4 5.4 4.8 5.2 4.4 4.6 38.5 39.3 40.0 4.9 4.8 5.2 5.3 Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EURO m 103.3 102.4 103.7 106.7 492.2 109.7 120.8 160.3 117.9 125.6 38.3 41.8 40.7 46.2 53.1 61.0 42.6 43.0 39.9 44.5 FISHING, in tons Catches in marine waters 1087.5 815.9 1021.6 933.4 913.7 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Source of data: SORS. Balance of Payments Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 8-9/2008 p. A 6 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2007 2008 2007 2008 QII QIII QIV QI Q„ 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, in EUR m Current account -196 -720 -498 -771 -1,455 -216 -480 -663 -550 -435 -230 -93 -158 -173 -184 -306 -236 -180 -133 -96 -207 -131 -235 Goods 1 -543 -1,009 -1,026 -1,151 -1,666 -359 -401 -664 -509 -639 -89 -117 -195 -180 -191 -293 -193 -142 -174 -167 -287 -185 -228 Exports 11,417 12,933 14,599 17,028 19,798 5,027 4,927 5,062 5,130 5,407 1,741 1,478 1,708 1,855 1,781 1 ,426 1,632 1,723 1,775 1,886 1,731 1,790 1,818 Imports 11,960 13,942 15,625 18,179 21,464 5,386 5,328 5,726 5,639 6,045 1,830 1,595 1,903 2,035 1,973 1,719 1,825 1,865 1,949 2,052 2,018 1,975 2,046 Services 540 688 920 993 1,193 366 354 198 342 533 94 141 119 79 56 63 90 104 148 1 58 187 188 113 Exports 2,465 2,783 3,214 3,572 4,291 1,038 1,307 1,049 1,093 1,266 443 465 399 382 307 360 354 352 387 413 412 441 515 Imports 1,925 2,095 2,293 2,580 3,098 672 953 851 750 734 349 324 280 303 251 297 264 248 238 255 225 253 402 Income -219 -322 -295 -440 -708 -188 -356 -112 -222 -231 -210 -102 -44 -45 -28 -39 -72 -74 -76 -73 -74 -84 -90 Receipts 510 530 647 872 1,169 293 298 344 293 324 97 91 110 112 112 1 20 96 96 100 1 07 109 108 108 Expenditure 728 852 942 1,312 1,877 481 654 456 51 5 555 307 193 1 54 157 139 1 59 168 170 176 1 80 183 192 198 Current transfers 26 -76 -97 -173 -274 -34 -78 -86 -162 -97 -25 -15 -38 -27 -22 -37 -61 -69 -32 -1 4 -33 -50 -29 Receipts 474 561 738 785 905 237 219 252 180 204 70 89 59 74 85 93 59 60 61 88 68 47 55 Expenditure 449 638 835 958 1,178 271 296 338 342 301 96 104 97 101 106 1 30 120 128 94 1 02 101 98 84 Capital and financial account 46 698 970 1,092 1,713 177 339 915 388 784 323 19 -2 139 286 491 75 231 82 231 326 228 176 Capital account -165 -96 -1 14 -131 -52 -27 -32 -8 -2 -21 -11 3 -24 7 5 -20 6 2 -10 6 -6 -21 -11 Financial account 211 794 1 ,084 1,223 1,765 204 371 923 390 806 334 16 21 132 281 511 69 230 92 224 332 249 187 Direct investment -151 224 -43 -174 -269 -64 -4 47 135 -14 96 45 -1 45 99 -103 50 38 -3 101 -42 4 23 -92 Domestic abroad -421 -441 -516 -687 -1,319 -296 -439 -257 -152 -325 -154 -61 -224 6 -159 -1 04 -36 -39 -77 -154 -134 -37 -202 Foreign in Slovenia 270 665 473 513 1,050 232 435 304 288 311 250 107 79 93 56 1 54 74 36 178 112 138 61 111 Portfolio investment -223 -637 -1,313 -1,442 -2,264 -1,204 377 -814 298 -1,117 234 119 24 -360 -490 36 13 688 -404 -424 -437 -256 133 Financial derivatives 0 6 -1 0 -13 -21 -2 -12 -10 2 1 -7 -5 -1 -11 0 1 3 3 -3 1 0 0 2 Other investment 849 945 2,639 1,571 4,179 1,484 -22 1,636 36 1,856 -121 -136 235 384 901 351 15 -495 517 605 748 503 217 Assets -730 -1,308 -1,459 -1,939 -4,877 -455 -1,405 -605 -991 -216 -605 -360 -439 -302 -372 70 142 -957 -176 390 176 -783 146 Commercial credits -116 -237 -226 -442 -394 -180 32 139 -509 -155 31 155 -1 54 -233 -18 390 -74 -227 -208 -22 -91 -42 29 Loans -223 -281 -340 -733 -1,890 -456 -435 -627 53 -440 -214 -148 -74 -131 -136 -359 174 -41 -80 18 -205 -254 257 Currency and deposits -323 -720 -872 -743 -2,601 182 -990 -118 -532 337 -408 -371 -211 53 -217 45 28 -690 130 345 482 -490 -145 Other assets -68 -69 -22 -21 7 0 -12 1 -3 42 -14 3 -1 8 -1 -6 14 1 -18 48 -9 3 5 Liabilities 1,579 2,252 4,098 3,510 9,057 1,939 1,383 2,241 1,027 2,072 484 225 674 686 1,273 282 -127 461 693 214 572 1,286 71 Commercial credits 59 214 291 479 503 55 -88 268 1 75 271 59 -303 1 56 163 97 8 -79 106 148 92 212 -33 0 Loans 1,123 1,671 2,731 2,064 3,840 1,554 910 1,345 622 1,448 231 254 425 209 881 254 98 215 309 -1 75 490 1,133 105 Deposits 428 335 1 ,053 998 4,727 338 567 613 253 346 188 281 98 328 299 -14 -134 150 236 294 -128 180 -40 Other liabilities -31 33 23 -30 -14 -7 -6 16 -22 7 7 -8 -6 -14 -4 34 -13 -10 0 4 -2 5 7 International reserves 2 -264 256 -189 1,281 140 -11 32 64 -81 80 132 -8 -91 20 -28 72 0 37 -118 85 16 -21 -73 Statistical error 150 22 -473 -321 -258 39 141 -252 162 -350 -93 74 1 60 34 -101 -1 85 161 -51 51 -135 -118 -96 58 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods 1,172 1,333 1,392 1,680 1,933 508 466 505 524 578 166 140 1 60 180 165 1 59 146 178 199 1 94 193 191 N/A Intermediate goods 5,989 6,926 7,723 9,368 10,438 2,674 2,560 2,593 2,751 2,863 918 778 864 959 927 707 892 933 926 1,015 913 935 N/A Consumer goods 4,124 4,523 5,282 5,709 7,014 1,720 1,790 1,859 1,746 1,841 619 520 651 679 653 526 556 580 610 635 584 622 N/A Import of investment goods 1,974 2,104 2,163 2,565 3,004 736 740 870 772 917 246 199 295 303 299 268 248 251 273 315 309 292 N/A Intermediate goods 7,209 8,492 9,764 11,319 12,874 3,215 3,162 3,343 3,422 3,626 1,105 955 1,102 1,161 1,185 998 1,116 1,146 1,161 1,224 1,215 1,187 N/A Consumer goods 3,056 3,547 3,877 4,456 5,609 1,447 1,413 1,509 1,457 1,514 478 424 511 576 492 440 466 473 518 515 499 500 N/A Sources of data: BS, SORS. Notes: 'exports and imports (F.O.B.) include also the adjustment for exports and imports of goods by ITRS and duty-free shops reports; 2 reserve assets of the BS. Monetary Indicators Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 8-9/2008 p. A 7 2005 2006 2007 2007 2008 December 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1\2\3\4\5\6\7 MONETARY SYSTEM - CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, end of the month, in SIT bn; since 1 January 2007 in EUR m Banknotes and coins 217.3 172.8 2,947 2,737 2,769 2,801 2,787 2,786 2,804 2,818 2,947 2,781 2,794 2,824 2,861 2,870 2,899 2,934 Overnight deposits at other MFI 1,491.0 1,694.6 7,057.0 7,056 7,194 7,257 7,134 7,152 6,931 6,774 7,057 7,073 6,776 6,985 6,859 7,044 7,241 6,938 Overnight deposits of NFI at the BS 2.8 5.0 47 40 41 50 57 58 54 42 47 49 38 36 38 31 47 31 Overnight deposits of other government sector (central government excluded) at the BS 2.7 1.3 6 6 7 8 10 9 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 Total overnight deposits at the BS 5.5 6.4 53 47 48 58 67 67 60 48 53 55 44 42 44 36 52 36 Deposits with agreed maturity at the BS 0.3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Deposits with agreed maturity at other MFI 1,688.0 1,746.4 8,700 7,578 7,694 7,967 8,209 8,178 8,449 8,269 8,700 8,710 8,925 8,892 9,190 9,133 9,115 9,487 Deposits at redeemable notice 122.4 197.5 1,280 1,087 1,133 1,171 1,224 1,277 1,300 1,366 1,280 1,317 1,348 1,337 1,313 1,337 1,359 1,317 Debt securities, units/shares of money market funds and repos 9.5 8.1 76 52 61 62 66 69 80 81 76 75 91 105 103 98 99 99 Banknotes and coins and demand deposits 1,713.9 1,873.7 10,057 9,840 10,011 10,116 9,989 10,005 9,794 9,640 10,057 9,910 9,614 9,850 9,764 9,950 10,192 9,909 Banknotes and coins and deposits with maturity of up to two years 3,524.6 3,817.6 20,037 18,506 18,838 19,254 19,421 19,460 19,543 19,275 20,037 19,937 19,888 20,079 20,266 20,420 20,670 20,712 Banknotes and coins and instruments with maturity of up to two years 3,534.2 3,825.8 20,113 18,557 18,899 19,316 19,487 19,529 19,624 19,355 20,113 20,012 19,978 20,184 20,369 20,517 20,769 20,812 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in SIT bn; since 1 January 2007 in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 17.4 16.6 67 68 68 68 68 67 67 67 67 67 67 66 66 66 65 66 Central government (S. 1311) 780.5 776.6 2,367 2,574 2,465 2,408 2,342 2,345 2,348 2,374 2,367 2,412 2,397 2,392 2,123 2,162 2,052 2,030 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 23.1 24.9 118 107 107 107 110 111 114 112 118 123 124 124 128 129 133 136 Households (S. 14, 15) 1,025.9 1,289.4 6,818 5,892 6,015 6,157 6,323 6,468 6,607 6,830 6,818 6,918 7,009 7,133 7,235 7,318 7,409 7,521 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 2,620.9 3,236.0 18,105 15,426 15,788 16,274 16,720 17,004 17,269 17,748 18,105 18,570 18,754 18,938 19,351 19,616 20,064 20,404 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 230.9 368.1 2,305 1,747 1,911 2,034 2,083 2,205 2,367 2,396 2,305 2,390 2,407 2,494 2,558 2,568 2,736 2,726 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 1,408.2 1,158.7 2,401 2,257 2,211 2,218 2,439 2,448 2,460 2,580 2,401 2,455 2,432 2,444 2,624 2,375 2,386 2,403 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 2,099.2 2,298.2 26,555 23,089 23,558 24,146 24,892 25,310 25,864 26,596 26,555 27,164 27,406 27,768 28,503 28,871 29,380 29,805 In foreign currency 2,199.4 3,149.0 1,990 1,335 1,456 1,560 1,638 1,699 1,789 1,900 1,990 2,117 2,192 2,280 2,276 2,259 2,263 2,228 Securities, total 1,791.0 1,406.6 3,570 3,577 3,484 3,492 3,488 3,573 3,511 3,544 3,570 3,586 3,529 3,477 3,239 3,038 3,137 3,188 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in SIT bn; since 1 January 2007 in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 2610.3 2902.9 20,029 18,367 18,446 18,880 19,299 19,386 19,579 19,558 20,029 20,088 20,674 20,779 20,774 20,613 21,137 21,381 Overnight 987.0 1178.1 6,887 6,849 6,953 7,047 6,881 6,907 6,695 6,573 6,887 6,924 6,557 6,787 6,711 6,841 7,064 6,740 With agreed maturity - short-term 1175.5 1251.2 8,913 7,777 7,592 7,867 8,331 8,247 8,689 8,723 8,913 8,899 9,862 9,745 9,734 9,292 9,439 9,936 With agreed maturity - long-term 309.9 292.4 2,857 2,573 2,693 2,728 2,790 2,874 2,820 2,817 2,857 2,845 2,803 2,814 2,926 3,046 3,170 3,285 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 137.8 181.2 1,372 1,168 1,208 1,238 1,297 1,358 1,375 1,445 1,372 1,420 1,452 1,433 1,403 1,434 1,464 1,420 Deposits in foreign currency, total 1346.6 1454.5 559 615 610 605 628 608 589 585 559 571 560 520 529 527 488 491 Overnight 534.8 552.7 218 280 274 270 278 269 255 260 218 248 240 226 222 225 218 220 With agreed maturity - short-term 481.2 545.5 248 248 249 242 258 248 241 226 248 229 237 220 224 224 196 192 With agreed maturity - long-term 295.2 318.3 56 61 60 61 62 60 60 57 56 55 48 45 45 42 42 43 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 35.4 38.0 37 26 27 32 30 31 33 42 37 39 35 29 38 36 32 36 Source of data: BS. Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD Prices No. 8-9/2008 p. A 8 Indices, 2005 = 100 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2007 2008 2007 2008 QII QIII QIV QI QII 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 GROWTH IN SELECTED PRICE INDICATORS CPI 94.2 97.6 100.0 102.5 106.2 105.8 106.9 108.8 109.9 112.9 106.9 107.3 108.0 108.9 109.4 109.5 109.4 110.9 111.7 112.9 113.9 113.9 113.3 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 100.3 100.8 100.0 102.3 110.2 108.7 110.7 116.1 120.0 121.7 109.7 113.0 115.5 115.5 117.3 120.4 119.9 119.8 120.8 122.5 121.8 122.9 120.8 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 91.0 96.3 100.0 103.7 110.5 108.0 113.6 113.2 112.9 113.4 114.0 113.1 113.2 113.1 113.2 113.0 112.8 112.9 112.8 113.6 113.8 113.6 114.5 Clothing and footwear 99.3 101.0 100.0 99.5 101.6 105.7 97.1 108.1 100.1 111.2 94.2 102.3 106.8 109.9 107.7 95.6 97.8 106.8 110.6 111.7 111.4 95.8 95.8 Housing, water, electricity, gas 85.4 91.7 100.0 105.3 108.1 107.1 109.3 111.7 115.2 119.3 110.3 109.1 110.2 112.3 112.5 115.7 113.8 116.0 116.7 119.3 122.1 123.3 121.8 Furnishings, household equip. 94.3 96.5 100.0 104.1 108.7 108.3 109.0 110.4 111.9 114.3 109.1 109.1 109.9 110.5 111.0 111.1 111.3 113.2 114.1 114.3 114.4 115.3 116.0 Medical, pharmaceutical products 98.8 100.3 100.0 98.3 99.4 99.9 99.1 98.7 99.4 101.5 98.7 98.7 98.8 98.8 98.7 98.3 98.5 101.3 101.4 101.4 101.9 104.5 103.6 Transport 92.1 97.4 100.0 101.3 101.6 102.6 102.1 101.9 102.6 105.6 102.2 101.1 100.7 102.5 102.4 102.7 102.0 103.2 103.7 105.4 107.7 107.9 105.9 Communications 99.8 100.0 100.0 100.3 100.6 99.6 100.9 101.8 102.2 101.5 100.8 101.5 101.4 100.8 103.1 102.5 102.1 102.1 102.1 101.2 101.2 101.3 101.3 Recreation and culture 94.2 97.7 100.0 102.1 105.8 104.3 110.6 105.9 107.2 109.5 113.0 107.9 105.5 105.6 106.6 106.5 108.0 107.3 107.5 108.9 112.1 117.2 118.5 Education 87.1 93.4 100.0 103.1 105.0 104.7 105.7 106.7 107.9 110.4 105.6 106.0 106.7 106.7 106.7 106.6 107.0 110.2 110.2 110.5 110.5 110.5 110.5 Catering services 91.1 95.8 100.0 104.5 112.1 110.8 112.8 115.5 119.4 121.9 112.7 113.9 114.4 115.6 116.6 119.0 119.5 119.8 121.4 122.0 122.3 123.7 124.4 Miscellaneous goods & services 94.5 98.1 100.0 104.1 107.8 107.1 108.2 109.4 110.6 111.9 108.3 108.5 108.8 109.6 109.9 110.1 110.6 111.2 111.7 112.0 112.1 112.1 112.4 HCPI 94.2 97.6 100.0 102.5 106.4 106.2 107.0 109.0 110.1 113.0 106.9 107.4 108.2 109.2 109.6 109.7 109.6 111.0 111.8 113.1 114.2 114.1 113.3 Producer price indices (domestic market) 93.4 97.4 100.0 102.3 107.8 107.4 108.2 109.9 112.1 114.2 107.7 108.9 109.6 110.1 110.1 111.0 112.4 113.0 113.7 114.2 114.8 115.3 115.3 Intermediate goods 91.4 96.9 100.0 103.5 111.9 111.7 112.6 114.3 117.0 119.7 112.1 113.5 114.2 114.3 114.4 115.2 117.7 118.0 119.0 119.6 120.4 121.0 120.9 Capital goods 94.7 97.0 100.0 100.2 101.5 101.1 101.5 102.0 102.6 104.6 101.4 101.6 102.1 101.9 101.9 102.4 102.2 103.4 104.4 104.1 105.3 106.2 106.5 Consumption goods 95.3 98.1 100.0 101.5 104.4 103.6 104.2 106.7 108.8 110.0 103.8 105.1 105.8 107.1 107.2 108.2 108.8 109.4 109.7 110.1 110.3 110.3 110.5 PRICE CONTROL1 Energy prices 83.3 89.4 100.0 108.0 108.6 109.5 110.1 112.4 116.1 128.1 109.8 108.5 108.5 114.4 114.3 116.5 112.6 119.1 120.3 127.4 136.4 139.5 131.8 Oil products 80.2 86.7 100.0 110.3 109.3 110.9 111.3 113.5 116.5 130.2 111.0 109.3 108.7 115.9 115.9 117.3 112.3 119.8 121.0 129.4 140.0 142.4 133.2 Electricity for households 93.8 98.6 100.0 101.6 - 107.1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Basic utilities 88.6 96.2 100.0 97.4 95.2 94.7 97.2 95.1 95.1 95.9 101.7 95.2 95.2 95.1 95.1 95.1 95.1 95.0 95.9 95.9 95.9 95.9 95.9 Transport & communications 95.2 97.9 100.0 101.5 102.1 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.4 102.8 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.2 102.8 102.8 102.8 102.8 100.8 100.8 Other controlled prices 89.8 95.7 100.0 102.6 105.6 104.9 106.3 106.4 106.4 106.7 107.1 106.4 106.4 106.4 106.4 106.4 106.4 106.4 106.6 106.7 106.7 106.7 108.9 Direct control - total 85.5 91.5 100.0 107.0 110.4 110.8 112.0 113.2 115.6 123.7 112.7 110.7 110.7 114.5 114.4 115.9 113.3 117.7 118.7 123.3 129.2 130.9 126.5 Source of data: SORS, calculations and estimates IMAD. Note: 1 the structure of groups varies, data published are not directly comparable to those published previously. The electricity market was liberalized on 1 July 2007. Data from July 2007 onwards are not comparable. Interest Rates and Investment Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 8-9/2008 p. A 9 Annual average 2007 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits - - 0.47 0.32 0.36 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.37 0.42 0.40 0.41 0.44 0.41 0.41 0.43 0.46 0.46 0.48 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year - - 3.34 2.96 3.36 3.26 3.36 3.41 3.61 3.89 3.83 4.04 4.08 3.95 4.03 4.14 4.2 4.3 4.40 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans 1-5 year fixed interest rate - 4.18 4.99 4.56 5.80 5.36 5.79 5.98 6.16 6.45 6.44 6.58 6.75 6.40 6.61 6.53 6.53 6.63 6.71 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million 1-5 year fixed interest rate 8.58 5.36 5.23 4.64 5.76 5.12 6.49 - 5.76 5.59 - 6.25 - - 5.63 6.32 5.47 6.63 6.91 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operations 2.25 2.00 2.02 2.78 3.85 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.25 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3 - month rates 2.33 2.11 2.19 3.58 4.28 4.15 4.22 4.54 4.74 4.69 4.64 4.85 4.48 4.36 4.60 4.78 4.86 4.94 4.96 6 - month rates 2.31 2.15 2.24 3.58 4.35 4.28 4.36 4.59 4.75 4.66 4.63 4.82 4.50 4.36 4.59 4.80 4.90 5.09 5.15 LIBOR CHF 3 - month rates 0.33 0.47 0.80 1.51 2.55 2.55 2.72 2.80 2.82 2.79 2.75 2.77 2.70 2.74 2.83 2.85 2.78 2.84 2.79 6 - month rates 0.38 0.59 0.87 1.65 2.65 2.70 2.85 2.86 2.90 2.89 2.85 2.84 2.77 2.77 2.87 2.93 2.89 2.98 2.94 Sources of data: BS, BBA- British Bankers' Association. Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD Labour Market No. 8-9/2008 p. A 10 Number in thousand 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2007 2008 2007 2008 QII QIII QIV QI QII 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 A FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 899.1 900.3 905.0 910.7 925.3 923.5 924.6 934.2 937.7 940.9 924.5 923.1 926.0 934.0 935.8 932.8 936.6 937.9 938.5 939.1 940.8 942.7 942.4 B PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (C+D) 801.4 807.5 813.1 824.8 854.0 852.7 856.1 865.4 870.8 879.4 854.4 854.6 859.4 864.5 867.4 864.4 867.3 870.9 874.2 876.6 879.6 882 879.9 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 37.7 41.2 38.7 38.9 41.6 42.0 41.0 40.3 41.9 41.2 41.0 41.0 41.0 40.4 40.3 40.2 41.8 41.9 42.1 41.2 41.2 41.2 40.6 In industry, construction 318.4 313.9 310.9 313.3 322.9 322.2 324.8 327.3 327.3 331.5 324.3 324.4 325.7 327.7 328.4 325.7 326.0 327.1 328.8 330.3 331.4 332.8 332.7 Of which: in manufacturing 238.9 236.1 233.7 227.9 229.9 230.2 229.6 230.4 230.0 230.2 229.8 229.3 229.7 230.7 230.9 229.7 229.8 229.9 230.4 230.3 230.1 230.2 229 in construction 63.3 62.2 61.7 69.9 77.8 76.8 80.0 81.7 82.2 86.2 79.1 79.9 80.9 81.8 82.4 80.9 81.2 82.2 83.3 84.8 86.2 87.5 88.7 In services 445.2 452.3 463.5 472.6 489.5 488.5 490.3 497.8 501.6 506.7 489.1 489.2 492.7 496.4 498.7 498.5 499.6 502.0 503.4 505.2 507.0 508 506.5 Of which: in public administration 47.7 49.9 49.1 50.2 50.1 50.1 50.2 50.3 50.6 50.7 50.2 50.2 50.2 50.3 50.3 50.4 50.6 50.7 50.5 50.6 50.7 50.9 50.7 in education, health-services, social work 102.7 105.0 106.5 109.1 110.0 110.2 109.3 110.6 111.3 111.9 109.0 108.7 110.1 110.6 110.8 110.5 110.9 111.4 111.5 111.7 112.0 111.9 110.6 C FORMALLY EMPLOYED 1 722.1 724.4 731.6 741.6 766.0 764.7 768.6 777.8 781.2 790.3 767.0 767.1 771.6 777.0 779.7 776.7 777.9 781.3 784.3 787.6 790.5 792.8 791.1 In enterprises and organisations 656.0 658.7 666.2 675.1 696.1 695.0 697.5 706.2 710.4 718.0 696.2 696.1 700.1 705.2 707.7 705.9 707.8 710.5 713.0 715.8 718.2 720.2 718.5 By those self-employed 66.2 65.6 65.4 66.5 69.9 69.8 71.1 71.6 70.8 72.2 70.8 71.0 71.5 71.8 72.0 70.8 70.2 70.8 71.3 71.8 72.3 72.6 72.7 D SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS 79.2 83.1 81.5 83.3 87.9 87.9 87.6 87.6 89.6 89.2 87.3 87.5 87.8 87.5 87.7 87.7 89.4 89.6 89.9 89.1 89.2 89.2 88.8 E REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT 97.7 92.8 91.9 85.8 71.3 70.9 68.4 68.8 66.8 61.4 70.1 68.5 66.7 69.5 68.4 68.4 69.2 67.0 64.3 62.4 61.2 60.7 61.6 Female 51.6 49.3 49.4 47.0 39.1 39.3 38.0 37.3 35.6 32.8 39.3 38.1 36.7 38.0 37.1 36.7 36.9 35.7 34.3 33.5 32.6 32.4 33 By age: under 26 25.5 24.3 22.2 18.2 11.9 11.6 10.3 11.7 10.3 8.4 11.1 10.4 9.5 12.2 11.6 11.2 11.1 10.3 9.5 8.8 8.4 8.1 8.1 older than 40 43.1 39.7 40.1 39.7 37.1 37.2 36.6 36.1 36.3 34.7 36.9 36.6 36.3 36.1 36.0 36.3 37.0 36.4 35.6 35.0 34.7 34.5 34.6 Unskilled 43.2 38.6 37.5 33.7 28.0 27.7 27.0 26.9 26.8 24.6 27.2 27.0 26.7 27.0 26.8 27.1 27.6 26.9 25.9 25.0 24.6 24.3 24.3 For more than 1 year 47.5 42.9 43.4 41.9 36.5 36.7 35.5 35.0 34.0 32.5 35.8 35.6 35.0 35.3 35.0 34.7 34.7 34.0 33.3 32.7 32.5 32.2 32.1 Those receiving benefits 24.3 22.3 23.3 22.7 16.6 16.8 15.8 14.7 15.0 13.6 16.3 16.0 15.2 14.8 14.5 14.7 15.6 15.1 14.2 13.7 13.6 13.4 13.9 F RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 10.9 10.3 10.2 9.4 8.4 7.7 7.4 7.4 7.1 6.5 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.1 6.9 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.5 G FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE -10.2 1.5 8.0 5.2 21.5 5.4 0.6 6.7 5.7 4.2 -0.9 -1.4 2.9 8.0 1.8 -3.0 3.8 1.4 0.6 0.6 1.7 2 -0.3 New unemployed first job seekers 25.4 26.0 21.7 18.6 14.7 2.4 2.3 7.2 2.2 1.8 0.7 0.6 1.0 5.3 1.2 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 Redundancies 68.8 69.6 67.2 63.8 52.5 11.6 12.6 12.9 12.5 10.7 4.9 3.5 4.2 4.5 4.3 4.1 5.8 3.4 3.3 3.6 3.4 3.6 4.6 Registered unemployed who found employment 50.5 54.3 53.9 57.4 49.1 12.1 11.3 10.9 12.4 9.7 3.0 3.8 4.4 4.3 4.1 2.5 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.6 3.2 2.9 2.3 Other unemployed erased out of register 47.3 46.6 33.1 39.2 28.0 6.9 6.2 7.4 6.4 6.3 1.6 1.9 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.2 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.6 2.0 1.7 2 Change in number of work permits for foreigners 3.5 -0.5 3.9 7.8 15.3 4.9 4.3 2.2 6.0 9.5 2.2 1.6 0.5 1.7 0.3 0.2 -0.2 2.4 3.8 4.2 2.8 2.5 2.3 Retirements 2 19.4 21.0 18.4 20.6 20.7 4.7 5.0 5.9 5.4 4.8 1.6 1.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.6 2.4 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 Deaths 2 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Others who found employment2 27.8 43.6 34.1 39.0 20.5 9.2 4.5 11.1 9.9 3.3 -0.8 -0.9 6.1 5.5 4.5 -0.2 7.1 1.7 0.1 -0.4 1.7 2 0.2 H REGISTERED VACANCIES3 12.1 14.1 16.9 19.0 20.2 21.0 20.4 19.1 21.6 21.1 18.8 19.7 22.8 24.4 18.7 14.2 22.4 22.8 19.8 21.6 21.6 20.2 19.8 For fixed term, in % 73.8 73.7 75.6 75.3 76.5 77.5 77.2 74.4 73.0 74.0 78.4 77.1 76.5 76.4 75.2 69.8 71.9 73.0 74.2 72.7 74.4 74.9 76.9 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 39.7 39.7 41.6 48.3 60.2 59.3 63.0 65.8 68.7 79.0 61.7 63.3 63.9 65.6 65.9 66.1 65.8 68.3 72.1 76.3 79.1 81.6 83.8 As % of labour force (I/A) 4.4 4.4 4.6 5.3 7.0 6.4 6.8 7.0 7.3 8.4 6.7 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.0 7.3 7.7 8.1 8.4 8.7 8.9 Sources of data: SORS, PDII, ESS. Notes: 1In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. Data for previous years dating back to January 2000 have also been calculated according to the new methodology. 2Estimated by IMAD, based on data by PDII and ESS; 3according to ESS. Wages, Competitiveness, Exchange Rate Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 8-9/2008 p. A 11 2005 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2007 QIII QIV QI QII 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, in SIT, since 2007 in EUR Total 277,279 290,635 1,285 1,267 1,379 1,335 1,360 1,263 1,279 1,259 1,304 1,492 1,343 1,326 1,326 1,353 1,354 1,360 1,365 1,372 Private sector (A to K) 258,714 272,709 1,217 1,191 1,328 1,264 1,289 1,180 1,211 1,181 1,238 1,468 1,279 1,263 1,244 1,285 1,288 1,290 1,291 1,299 Agriculture, fishing (A, B) 224,253 236,822 1,069 1,048 1,185 1,112 1,127 1,029 1,073 1,044 1,113 1,323 1,118 1,117 1,127 1,091 1,122 1,151 1,109 1,159 A Agriculture 224,225 236,681 1,069 1,049 1,184 1,114 1,128 1,029 1,072 1,045 1,110 1,323 1,120 1,120 1,129 1,092 1,123 1,152 1,108 1,160 B Fishing 218,670 236,027 1,063 1,030 1,202 1,036 1,112 1,015 1,078 999 1,231 1,337 1,039 1,032 1,027 1,047 1,056 1,114 1,165 1,142 Industry, construction (C to F) 243,067 256,362 1,140 1,120 1,241 1,184 1,206 1,106 1,145 1,109 1,168 1,372 1,184 1,189 1,163 1,200 1,202 1,205 1,211 1,225 C Mining and quarrying 344,670 360,110 1,608 1,538 1,848 1,656 1,765 1,518 1,549 1,547 1,628 2,139 1,777 1,605 1,642 1,721 1,670 1,859 1,765 1,783 D Manufacturing 238,985 252,162 1,124 1,105 1,217 1,175 1,191 1,091 1,132 1,093 1,151 1,335 1,165 1,181 1,152 1,192 1,189 1,185 1,198 1,209 E Electricity, gas & water supply 353,836 373,743 1,657 1,564 2,031 1,629 1,681 1,502 1,602 1,588 1,689 2,553 1,850 1,663 1,598 1,625 1,662 1,684 1,698 1,713 F Construction 224,794 238,698 1,061 1,054 1,129 1,094 1,135 1,050 1,071 1,039 1,091 1,217 1,080 1,092 1,081 1,107 1,131 1,144 1,129 1,154 Production services (G to I) 253,747 266,326 1,189 1,167 1,280 1,241 1,258 1,162 1,177 1,163 1,204 1,377 1,260 1,235 1,221 1,266 1,265 1,254 1,256 1,265 G Distributive trade 244,880 258,521 1,161 1,143 1,247 1,205 1,232 1,136 1,151 1,142 1,176 1,332 1,231 1,200 1,194 1,223 1,245 1,226 1,225 1,241 H Hotels & restaurants 202,895 211,873 937 927 1,004 983 1,017 920 945 916 958 1,042 1,011 993 969 985 1,003 1,034 1,015 1,016 I Transport, storage & communications 299,377 310,080 1,368 1,331 1,480 1,436 1,425 1,329 1,343 1,322 1,377 1,627 1,436 1,423 1,395 1,489 1,426 1,414 1,434 1,427 Business services (J to K) 325,355 340,552 1,520 1,466 1,698 1,563 1,611 1,458 1,486 1,453 1,528 1,942 1,623 1,555 1,542 1,592 1,603 1,624 1,607 1,594 J Financial intermediation 413,896 443,595 1,986 1,834 2,347 1,959 2,114 1,833 1,853 1,815 1,973 3,015 2,054 1,918 1,932 2,027 2,124 2,155 2,062 1,960 K Real estate 292,763 304,295 1,361 1,341 1,480 1,431 1,445 1,330 1,361 1,331 1,379 1,583 1,479 1,433 1,412 1,447 1,430 1,448 1,457 1,473 Public services (L to O) 330,580 341,999 1,485 1,495 1,531 1,548 1,572 1,509 1,485 1,490 1,500 1,563 1,531 1,515 1,570 1,558 1,556 1,573 1,588 1,597 L Public administration 333,302 343,572 1,507 1,538 1,561 1,606 1,642 1,565 1,512 1,538 1,553 1,569 1,562 1,549 1,648 1,619 1,627 1,636 1,663 1,684 M Education 340,967 357,301 1,550 1,561 1,573 1,605 1,634 1,571 1,556 1,556 1,560 1,585 1,575 1,563 1,636 1,615 1,620 1,638 1,643 1,649 N Health & social work 316,827 325,245 1,400 1,405 1,436 1,450 1,460 1,423 1,401 1,391 1,404 1,453 1,450 1,438 1,452 1,461 1,438 1,463 1,478 1,491 O Other social & personal services 325,159 332,137 1,440 1,407 1,553 1,465 1,486 1,399 1,415 1,407 1,421 1,733 1,504 1,466 1,463 1,467 1,471 1,487 1,502 1,482 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS, 2001=100 Foreign exchange rates Effective exchange rate1, nominal 94,0 94,1 94,9 94,9 95,4 95,6 95,9 95,0 94,8 95,0 95,3 95,4 95,4 95,5 95,4 95,8 96,0 95,9 95,8 95,7 Real (relative consumer prices) 105,0 105,7 108,1 108,7 110,1 110,5 112,3 108,5 108,6 109,0 109,6 110,3 110,3 110,4 109,9 111,1 112,0 112,3 112,7 112,3 Real (relative producer prices)2 102,5 101,6 103,7 103,5 104,7 104,9 104,9 103,2 103,2 104,0 104,7 104,7 104,8 105,0 104,8 105,0 105,6 104,6 104,4 104,0 SIT/US$ 192,7 191,0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SIT/EUR 239,6 239,6 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - US$/EUR 1,2448 1,2557 1,3706 1,3745 1,4494 1,4998 1,5620 1,3716 1,3622 1,3896 1,4227 1,4684 1,4570 1,4718 1,4748 1,5527 1,5750 1,5557 1,5553 1,5770 Sources of data: SORS, AP, BS, OECD Main Economic Indicators, calculations IMAD. Notes: Data on the monthly gross wage per employee for 2004 and beyond calculated according to the new methodology were published in September 2005. 1Change of methodology: the calculation of domestic currency's effective exchange rate includes the currencies/prices of Slovenia's 17 trading partners (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Italy, France, Netherlands, Spain, Denmark, United Kingdom, Sweden, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, USA, Switzerland, Japan); weights are the shares of individual trading partners in Slovenian exports and imports of goods within manufacturing (5-8 SITC) in 2001-2003; exports are double weighted; a rise in the index value indicates an appreciation of domestic currency and vice versa. 2Producer prices in manufacturing activities. Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD Public Finance No. 8-9/2008 p. A 12 Current prices, 2004 2005 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 EURO thousand Qll Qlll QV Q Qll 1 2 3 4 5 6 CONSOLIDATED GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES (GFS-IMF methodology) TOTAL REVENUES 11,196,191 11,976,085 12,958,693 14,006,087 3,453,959 3,429,135 4,059,774 3,354,228 4,005,242 1,119,010 1,100,071 1,135,147 1,463,066 1,259,842 1,282,333 Current revenues 10,887,384 11,517,220 12,395,302 13,467,169 3,374,915 3,332,116 3,805,095 3,274,529 3,880,996 1,104,591 1,073,528 1,096,410 1,435,752 1,228,667 1,216,577 Tax revenues 10,210,728 10,883,952 11,761,990 12,757,942 3,199,681 3,123,561 3,606,002 3,110,026 3,701,995 1,057,437 1,015,569 1,037,020 1,374,121 1,175,522 1,152,352 Taxes on income and profit 2,115,163 2,241,947 2,735,294 2,917,670 914,251 646,272 769,413 694,360 1,106,544 222,969 221,246 250,145 498,338 316,699 291,506 Social security contributions 3,753,129 3,987,693 4,231,224 4,597,973 1,123,694 1,139,120 1,251,786 1,203,051 1,254,213 394,658 400,038 408,355 418,985 415,775 419,453 Taxes on payroll and workforce 491,053 526,193 472,934 418,141 99,669 101,537 120,885 59,414 62,192 19,987 19,495 19,933 20,907 20,377 20,908 Taxes on property 164,886 170,396 189,124 206,421 57,958 67,292 58,987 27,536 62,624 8,685 10,532 8,319 11,993 28,575 22,057 Domestic taxes on goods and services 3,574,570 3,914,698 4,077,290 4,498,576 973,023 1,135,454 1,372,486 1,099,440 1,181,672 404,585 354,721 340,133 411,458 383,363 386,852 Taxes on international trade & transactions 80,698 39,060 50,681 117,079 30,663 33,213 31,725 25,584 33,702 6,345 9,324 9,915 12,279 10,523 10,900 Other taxes 31,229 3,965 5,442 2,081 422 673 719 640 1,048 208 214 219 161 210 676 Non-tax revenues 676,656 633,268 633,312 709,227 175,234 208,554 199,093 164,502 179,001 47,154 57,958 59,390 61,631 53,145 64,225 Capital revenues 86,593 113,424 166,795 136,551 15,184 39,564 62,132 28,011 26,773 11,104 9,579 7,328 6,150 5,789 14,835 Grants 7,831 9,067 5,370 11,872 2,831 1,975 4,955 1,942 2,053 742 734 466 767 465 821 Transferred revenues 31,449 33,967 42,811 42,500 1,449 427 40,450 1,219 887 355 124 741 1,102 -387 171 Receipts from the EU budget 182,933 302,407 348,416 347,997 59,580 55,054 147,143 48,528 94,533 2,217 16,107 30,203 19,296 25,308 49,930 CONSOLIDATED GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE (GFS-IMF methodology) TOTAL EXPENDITURE 11,552,442 12,275,729 13,208,676 13,915,485 3,392,566 3,239,983 4,081,764 3,367,036 3,796,089 1,009,129 1,140,397 1,217,511 1,229,213 1,366,582 1,200,294 Current expenditure 5,149,861 5,353,940 5,688,953 5,950,896 1,448,488 1,362,191 1,658,215 1,570,030 1,585,363 445,374 512,307 612,349 529,522 548,248 507,593 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditure 2,922,504 3,016,282 3,180,304 3,276,920 851,676 814,380 825,018 808,645 898,363 264,133 262,918 281,594 274,547 336,951 286,865 Expenditure on goods and services 1,793,780 1,910,960 2,073,233 2,212,229 482,590 517,992 721,312 528,288 601,431 153,933 171,691 202,664 188,886 204,463 208,082 Interest payments 383,629 372,142 376,392 356,983 105,283 17,472 36,678 221,038 69,786 22,868 74,227 123,942 61,449 2,527 5,810 Reserves 49,948 54,556 59,025 104,765 8,939 12,347 75,207 12,060 15,784 4,440 3,471 4,149 4,640 4,308 6,836 Current transfers 5,215,779 5,598,570 5,925,823 6,143,945 1,665,639 1,456,006 1,565,087 1,489,861 1,856,194 460,532 517,281 512,048 579,766 707,199 569,229 Subsidies 323,697 381,245 402,921 423,371 137,922 88,287 92,752 60,546 242,969 5,008 34,975 20,564 86,662 83,697 72,611 Current transfers to individuals and households 4,395,830 4,628,595 4,871,492 5,093,321 1,359,165 1,211,111 1,304,006 1,303,391 1,448,907 418,051 441,065 444,276 444,983 566,410 437,513 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 474,357 563,051 624,054 595,274 158,373 145,285 160,757 118,705 151,243 35,719 37,710 45,276 46,244 50,467 54,532 Current transfers abroad 21,894 25,679 27,357 31,979 10,178 11,324 7,572 7,218 13,076 1,754 3,531 1,933 1,878 6,625 4,573 Capital expenditure 631,383 654,246 901,419 1,130,466 162,915 266,879 567,298 148,835 215,974 53,648 44,782 50,405 69,308 68,383 78,282 Capital transfers 385,845 383,385 404,588 334,274 54,972 69,297 181,376 30,589 62,347 8,993 10,767 10,829 18,879 19,160 24,308 Payments to the EU budget 169,575 285,589 287,892 355,904 60,553 85,610 109,787 127,721 76,211 40,582 55,259 31,880 31,737 23,592 20,882 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -356,252 -299,644 -249,983 90,603 - - - - - - - - - - - Source of data: MF Bulletin. Note: in line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the state are not consolidated. Data prior to 2007 are recalculated on the basis of the irrevocable SIT/EUR exchange rate = 239.64. Main Indicators Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 8-9/2008 p. A 13 Real growth rates, in %* 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1010 Spring Forecast 2008 GDP 2.8 4.4 4.1 5.7 6.1 4.4 4.1 4.4 GDP in EUR million (current prices and current exchange rate) 25,344 26,764 28,244 30,453 - - - - GDP in EUR million (current prices and fixed 2007 exchange rate EUR=239,64) 24,716 26,677 28,243 30,448 33,542 36,308 39,234 42,270 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices and current exchange rate) 12,695 13,400 14,116 15,167 16,615 17,939 19,350 20,815 GDP per capita (PPS)1 17,000 18,400 19,500 20,700 22,4002 - - - GDP per capita (PPS EU27=100)' 82 85 87 88 892 - - - Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 6.7 6.3 6.5 6.0 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.7 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 3.2 4.1 4.0 4.5 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.8 Inflation3, annual average 5.6 3.6 2.5 2.5 3.6 5.2 3.2 2.9 INTERNATIONAL TRADE - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS Exports of goods and services4 3.1 12.5 10.1 12.3 13.0 9.7 9.4 9.7 Exports of goods 4.4 12.8 10.3 13.4 12.5 9.4 9.3 9.5 Exports of services -2.5 11.0 9.5 7.3 15.5 10.9 10.0 10.5 Imports of goods and services4 6.7 13.3 6.7 12.2 14.1 8.5 7.5 8.6 Imports of goods 7.3 14.6 6.8 12.7 13.8 8.3 7.2 8.3 Imports of services 2.9 5.6 5.6 8.9 16.6 9.8 9.7 10.6 Current account balance, in EUR million -196 -720 -561 -857 -1,641 -1,686 -1,103 -899 Average exchange rate, SIT/EUR 233.70 238.86 239.64 239.64 - - - - Ratio of USD to EUR 1.128 1.242 1.244 1.254 1.371 1.526 1.537 1.537 Foreign exchange reserves, in EUR million 7,703 7,484 8,833 8,005 - - - - - in which: BS foreign exchange reserves, in EUR million 6,675 6,368 6,771 5,305 6445 5906 - - Gross external debt, in EUR million 13,225 15,343 20,508 24,034 34,358 39,3477 - - DOMESTIC DEMAND - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS (share in GDP in %) Private consumption 55.3 54.3 54.0 53.4 52.3 52.7 52.2 51.8 Government consumption 19.4 19.2 19.4 19.2 18.2 18.6 18.5 18.6 Gross fixed capital formation 24.1 25.4 25.5 26.1 28.7 28.9 28.1 28.1 Sources of data: SORS, BS, MF, calculations and forecasts by IMAD - Spring Forecast 2008. Notes: *if not stated otherwise; 1Eurostat; 2the first provisional estimate; 3the consumer price index; 4balance of payments statistics (exports F.O.B., imports F.O.B.), changes in exchange rates and prices in foreign markets are eliminated by calculating real rates; 5From 1 January 2007 foreign exchange reserves of the Bank of Slovenia include foreign cash in convertible currencies, deposits abroad, and first class securities of issuers from outside the EMU in foreign currency. The drop in data values is the result of Slovenia's entry to the EMU; 6end August 2008; 7end July 2008. International Comparisons / I Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 8-9/2008 p. A 14 Real GDP growth GDP per capita in PPS1 EU27=100 Inflation2 (annual average) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2004 2005 2006 2007 2004 2005 2006 2007 Slovenia 4.3 4.3 5.9 6.8 86.6 88.2 89.3 91.2 3.7 2.5 2.5 3.8 EU27 2.5 1.9 3.1 2.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.3 EU25 2.5 1.9 3.1 2.9 104.2 104.1 103.9 103.8 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 EMU 2.1 1.7 2.8 2.6 110.9 110.9 110.5 110.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.1 Belgium 3.0 1.7 2.8 2.8 121.0 121.0 120.2 119.5 1.9 2.5 2.3 1.8 Bulgaria 6.6 6.2 6.3 6.2 33.8 35.3 36.7 38.1 6.1 6.0 7.4 7.6 Czech Republic 4.5 6.3 6.8 6.0 75.3 76.4 78.1 81.3 2.6 1.6 2.1 3.0 Denmark 2.3 2.5 3.9 1.8 126.0 126.5 125.6 122.8 0.9 1.7 1.9 1.7 Germany 1.2 0.8 3.0 2.5 116.6 114.9 113.9 113.1 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.3 Estonia 7.5 9.2 10.4 6.3 57.4 62.2 67.6 70.8 3.0 4.1 4.4 6.7 Ireland 4.7 6.4 5.7 6.0 142.3 144.1 147.4 149.7 2.3 2.2 2.7 2.9 Greece 4.9 2.9 4.5 4.0 94.2 95.6 96.8 97.3 3.0 3.5 3.3 3.0 Spain 3.3 3.6 3.9 3.7 101.2 102.9 105.0 106.9 3.1 3.4 3.6 2.8 France 2.5 1.9 2.2 2.2 110.3 112.3 111.7 111.2 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.6 Italy 1.5 0.6 1.8 1.5 106.9 105.0 103.2 101.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.0 Cyprus 4.2 3.9 4.1 4.4 90.5 92.5 92.0 93.4 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.2 Latvia 8.7 10.6 11.9 10.2 45.8 49.8 53.6 58.0 6.2 6.9 6.6 10.1 Lithuania 7.3 7.9 7.7 8.8 50.5 53.1 56.1 60.3 1.2 2.7 3.8 5.8 Luxembourg 4.5 5.2 6.4 5.2 254.0 265.7 279.4 277.5 3.2 3.8 3.0 2.7 Hungary 4.8 4.0 4.1 1.1 63.2 64.0 64.8 63.5 6.8 3.5 4.0 7.9 Malta 1.1 3.5 3.1 3.7 77.4 77.9 77.2 77.3 2.7 2.5 2.6 0.7 Netherlands 2.2 2.0 3.4 3.5 129.5 132.1 131.7 132.6 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.6 Austria 2.5 2.9 3.4 3.1 127.0 128.2 127.0 127.3 2.0 2.1 1.7 2.2 Poland 5.3 3.6 6.2 6.6 50.8 51.2 52.3 53.8 3.6 2.2 1.3 2.6 Portugal 1.5 0.9 1.4 1.9 74.8 75.4 74.5 74.8 2.5 2.1 3.0 2.4 Romania 8.5 4.2 8.2 6.0 34.1 35.4 38.8 40.6 11.9 9.1 6.6 4.9 Slovakia 5.2 6.5 8.5 10.4 57.2 60.5 63.6 68.6 7.5 2.8 4.3 1.9 Finland 3.7 2.8 4.9 4.5 116.6 115.0 116.8 116.8 0.1 0.8 1.3 1.6 Sweden 4.1 3.3 4.1 2.7 125.0 123.6 124.4 126.1 1.0 0.8 1.5 1.7 United Kingdom 2.8 2.1 2.8 3.0 123.8 120.9 119.4 117.5 1.3 2.1 2.3 2.3 USA 3.6 2.9 2.8 2.0 155.0 158.1 157.1 155.1 2.7 3.4 3.2 2.8 Sources of data: SORS; Eurostat. Notes: 1PPS - Purchasing Power Standard. 2 Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices for EU countries and Consumer Price Index for the USA. International Comparisons / II Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 8-9/2008 p. A 15 Survey Unemployment Rate Current account balance1, % GDP General Government Balance, % GDP General Government Gross Debt, % GDP 2004 2005 2006 2007 2004 2005 2006 20072 2004 2005 2006 2007 2004 2005 2006 2007 Slovenia 6.3 6.5 6.0 4.8 -2.7 -2.0 -2.8 -4.9 -2.3 -1.5 -1.2 -0.1 27.6 27.5 27.2 24.1 EU27 9.0 8.9 8.1 7.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.7 -0.6 -2.8 -2.5 -1.4 -0.9 62.1 62.6 61.3 58.7 EU25 9.0 8.9 8.2 7.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -0.3 -2.9 -2.5 -1.4 -0.9 62.4 63.0 61.8 59.3 EMU 8.8 8.9 8.3 7.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.3 -2.9 -2.5 -1.3 -0.6 69.7 70.3 68.6 66.6 Belgium 8.4 8.4 8.2 7.5 3.5 2.6 2.7 1.9 0.0 -2.3 0.3 -0.2 94.2 92.1 88.2 84.9 Bulgaria 12.0 10.1 9.0 6.9 -6.6 -12.4 -17.8 -21.5 1.4 1.8 3.0 3.4 37.9 29.2 22.7 18.2 Czech Republic 8.3 7.9 7.1 5.3 -5.4 -1.8 -3.3 N/A -3.0 -3.6 -2.7 -1.6 30.4 29.7 29.4 28.7 Denmark 5.5 4.8 3.9 3.8 3.0 4.3 2.7 1.1 1.9 5.0 4.8 4.4 43.8 36.4 30.4 26.0 Germany 9.7 10.7 9.8 8.4 4.7 5.2 6.1 7.6 -3.8 -3.4 -1.6 0.0 65.6 67.8 67.6 65.0 Estonia 9.7 7.9 5.9 4.7 -12.3 -10.0 -15.5 -17.3 1.6 1.8 3.4 2.8 5.1 4.5 4.2 3.4 Ireland 4.5 4.3 4.4 4.6 -0.6 -3.5 -4.2 N/A 1.4 1.6 3.0 0.3 29.5 27.4 25.1 25.4 Greece 10.5 9.8 8.9 8.3 -5.6 -7.1 N/A N/A -7.4 -5.1 -2.6 -2.8 98.6 98.0 95.3 94.5 Spain 10.6 9.2 8.5 8.3 -5.3 -7.4 -8.9 -10.1 -0.3 1.0 1.8 2.2 46.2 43.0 39.7 36.2 France 9.3 9.2 9.2 8.3 0.5 -0.9 -1.3 N/A -3.6 -2.9 -2.4 -2.7 64.9 66.4 63.6 64.2 Italy 8.0 7.7 6.8 6.1 -0.9 -1.6 -2.6 -2.5 -3.5 -4.2 -3.4 -1.9 103.8 105.8 106.5 104.0 Cyprus 4.6 5.2 4.6 3.9 -5.0 -5.9 -5.9 -9.7 -4.1 -2.4 -1.2 3.3 70.2 69.1 64.8 59.8 Latvia 10.4 8.9 6.8 6.0 -12.9 -12.5 -22.5 -22.9 -1.0 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 1 4.9 12.4 10.7 9.7 Lithuania 11.4 8.3 5.6 4.3 -7.7 -7.2 -10.8 -13.7 -1.5 -0.5 -0.5 -1.2 19.4 18.6 18.2 17.3 Luxembourg 5.1 4.5 4.7 4.7 11.9 11.1 10.5 N/A -1.2 -0.1 1.3 2.9 6.3 6.1 6.6 6.8 Hungary 6.1 7.2 7.5 7.4 -8.4 -6.8 -6.1 -4.9 -6.5 -7.8 -9.2 -5.5 59.4 61.6 65.6 66.0 Malta 7.4 7.3 7.3 6.4 -5.9 -8.8 -8.3 -5.6 -4.6 -3.0 -2.6 -1.8 72.6 70.4 64.2 62.6 Netherlands 4.6 4.7 3.9 3.2 7.5 7.2 8.3 6.6 -1.7 -0.3 0.5 0.4 52.4 52.3 47.9 45.4 Austria 4.8 5.2 4.7 4.4 0.5 1.1 2.4 3.2 -3.7 -1.5 -1.5 -0.5 63.8 63.5 61.8 59.1 Poland 19.0 17.7 13.8 9.6 -4.0 -1.2 -2.7 -3.7 -5.7 -4.3 -3.8 -2.0 45.7 47.1 47.6 45.2 Portugal 6.7 7.6 7.7 8.0 -7.6 -9.5 -10.1 -9.8 -3.4 -6.1 -3.9 -2.6 58.3 63.6 64.7 63.6 Romania 8.1 7.2 7.3 6.4 -8.4 -8.6 -10.5 -14.1 -1.2 -1.2 -2.2 -2.5 18.8 15.8 12.4 13.0 Slovakia 18.2 16.3 13.4 11.1 -3.4 -8.4 -8.2 -5.7 -2.4 -2.8 -3.6 -2.2 41.4 34.2 30.4 29.4 Finland 8.8 8.4 7.7 6.9 6.5 3.6 4.6 4.6 2.4 2.9 4.1 5.3 44.1 41.3 39.2 35.4 Sweden 6.3 7.4 7.0 6.1 6.7 7.0 8.5 8.4 0.8 2.2 2.3 3.5 51.2 50.9 45.9 40.6 United Kingdom 4.7 4.8 5.4 5.3 -1.6 -2.5 -3.9 -4.2 -3.4 -3.4 -2.6 -2.9 40.4 42.1 43.1 43.8 USA 5.5 5.1 4.6 4.6 -5.5 -6.1 -6.1 N/A -4.4 N/A N/A N/A 63.4 N/A N/A N/A Sources of data: SORS; Eurostat. Notes: 1EU25 and euro area aggregates are adjusted for reporting errors concerning intra-EU trade; Provisional value; N/A - data not available. Graphs Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No.8-9/2008 p. A 16 INDUSTRY indices: average 2000=100 trend indices by the TRAMO-SEATS method 150 135 120 105 FREIGHT TRANSPORT BY ROAD AND RAIL (mio tonne km) 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 / \ . / \ / V ■ RAIL TRANSPORT ■ ROADTRANSPORT ° a ö a § ° a ä a a a ° a a a O GOODS TRADE FOB, EXCL. INTERCURRENCY CHANGES 12-month cummulatives in EUR, bn 25 20 ■ 15 ■ 10 ■ 5 ] BALANCE (right) ■ EXPORTS Ss Y .-■v t/. Y.- V, ■v v, ■v SJ •v, V; t/, .-■v v. s/. ■v v. ■v .••v v- SJ Y .-■v 'Yi t/. Y.- V, ■v v, ■v •v, v. t/, .-■v v. s/. ■v v. ■v .••v v- SJ Y .-■v 'Yi t/. .••v v, ■v v, ■v •v, v. t/, .-■v v. s/. ■v v. ••v .••v v- Ys Y .-■v 'Yi t/. .••v v, ■v .••v v, ■v •v, v. t/, .-■v v. s/. ■v v. ••v .••v v- Li ;Y; v, ■v .••v v, ■v •v, v. t/, .-■v v. s/. ■v v. ••v .••v v- •v — — ■v •v, v. t/, .-■v v. s/. ■v v. ••v .••v v- 1—1 1—1 1—1 t/, .-■v v. s/. ■v v. ■v .••v v- Ji .••v v- -i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—r- r- 0 250 230 210 190 170 150 130 110 90 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 REAL INDICES OF CONSTRUCTION PUT IN PLACE indices: average 2000=100; trend indices by the TRAMO-SEATS method - CONSTRUCTION OVERNIGHT STAYS TOTAL indices: average 1992=100; trend indices by the TRAMO-SEATS method ---------OR IGINAL INDICES -TREND INDI CES A + \ 1 1 1 1 / 1 1 1 1 \ 1 /\ s \ : \ / \ . / \ \ EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT 112 110 108 106 104 102 100 98 96 94 ----' ---------EMPLOYMENT, indices 2000=100 ■ UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (right axis) -i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i- 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 3 2 0 Graphs Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 8-9/2008 p. A 17 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 NET WAGES AND OTHER REMUNERATION, in EUR million OTHER REMUNERATION BILL —i—i—i—i—r i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i- PAYMENTS FOR INVESTMENT in EUR million, constant 2000 prices 450 - 300 - 200 - 100 114 112 110 EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE IN REAL TERMS _indices: average 2001=100_ BASED ON RELATIVE: • PRODUCER PRICE INDICES ■ CONSUMER PRICE INDICES ^—✓ HOUSEHOLDS' DEPOSITS in EUR million 15000 13500 12000 10500 9000 ■ 7500 ■ 6000 ■ 4500 3000 1500 ■ 0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 GROWTH IN SELECTED PRICE INDICATORS INDICES:2005=100 130 120 110 100 • PRICE CONTROL • CONSUMER PRICEINDICES I \ ■PRODUCER PRICE INDICES (DOMESTIC » \ MARKET) ' * -i—i—i—i—i—i— —i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i— EURO EXCHANGE RATES indices: average 2001 = 100 500 400 350 250 Index Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 8-9/2008 p. A 18 Agriculture and food processing industry agricultural production 6/04:15, 2/07:15 CAP reform 7/03:18-19 negotiations with the EU 2/02:23, 1/03:17 prices 3/03:14, 3/04:14, 3/05:13, 1/08:20-21, 2/08:16-17, 3/08:24 sample surveys of agricultural holdings 10/03:15 cattle breeding main indicators, number of cattle, BSE, milk production 1/08:20-21, 2/08:16-17 fishing 8-9/04:16, 10/06:17, 11/07:19 forestry 5/04:16, 11/06:19, 10/07:17 international trade 3/04:15, 4/06:23, 4/07:18 value added forecasting 4/07:21 Balance of payments see also External debt current account, capital and financial account, international money reserves 1/03:3,4, 2/03:4, 3/03:7, 4/03:5, 5/03:4, 6/03:4, 7/03:5, 8-9/03:6, 10/03:4, 11/03:4, 12/03:4, 1/04:4, 2/04:4-5, 3/04:6, 4/04:6, 5/04:4, 6/04:4, 7/04:4, 8-9/04:4-5, 10/04:5, 11/04:4-5, 12/04:4, 1/05:4, 2/05:4-5, 4/05:5, 5/05:4-5, 6/05:3, 7/05:4, 8-9/05:5, 10/05:6, 11/05:7-8, 12/05:4, 1/06:4, 2/06:4-5, 3/06:4, 4/06:6, 5/06:6-7, 6/06:6, 7/06:4, 8-9/06:6, 10/06:4, 11/06:6-7, 12/06:10, 1/07:5, 2/07:6-7, 4/07:7, 6/07:5-6, 7/07:5, 8-9/07:6, 11/07:7, 12/07:6, 1/08:5, 2/08:3, 3/08:8, 4/08:5, 5/08:5-6. 6/08:6, 7/08:5, 8-9/08:7 terms of trade 2/03:4, 4/03:5, 5/03:4, 7/03:5, 5/08:5 export financing and export credit insurance 5/03:22 regional composition of trade 2/05:4, 3/07:16-17 trade in services 3/03:5, 7/03:5, 8-9/03:7, 2/04:6, 8-9/04:6, 12/04:29, 2/05:8, 8-9/05:6, 2/06:6, 8-9/06:7, 2/07:8, 8-9/07:7, 3/08:9 competitiveness of exports of services 12/03:17 coverage of international trade in services (methodology) 3/03:24,25 regional distribution 6/04:20 Business subjects 5/03:21, 5/04:20-21 Economic subjects 4/05:17, 4/06:22 Co-operative societies business performance 11/03:17, 12/04:30, 11/05:23 Corporate sectorsss company performance R&D: 6/05:18 by kind of ownership 11/04:18, 8-9/05:23 by origin of capital 11/04:19, 10/05:22 by size 10/03:22, 7/04:24, 8-9/04:26, 6/05:16 by share of exports in total revenues 11/02:19, 8-9/03:20, 10/04:20, 7/05:19 by technology intensity 10/07:20-21 by no. of employees 7/05:18 in 1994-2000 4/01:8 overall performance 6/03:13, 7/03:20, 6/04:21, 7/04:24, 5/05:19, 5/06:22, 10/06:2021, 5/07:21, 5/08:15 in dairy industry: 1/08:20-21 in meat processing firms: 2/08:16-17 comparison of Slovenian and European enterprises 1/05:20-21 enterprises by size 7/05:17, 7/06:20-21, 89/07:22-23, 6/08:19-20 entrepreneurial activity 5/06:17-18 compulsory settlement, bankruptcies, liquidations 3/05:19 ownership structure, ownership concentration 1/03:15, 3/05:22, 6/05:15 foreign direct investment performance of companies employing foreign capital 7/03:21, 8-9/03:21, 10/03:21 number of business entities 5/07:20, 4/08:21 solvency of business entities 3/05:23, 5/06:23, 5/07:22, 4/08:22 small sole proprietorships 12/05:20 Doing Business rankings (WB) 12/06:24-25 Competitiveness (export competitiveness) price and cost competitiveness - effective exchange rate, unit labour costs: quarterly trends 2/03:7, 5/03:5, 8-9/03:8, 11/03:5, 3/04:4, 5/04:5, 8-9/04:7, 11/04:6, 2/05:6, 10/05:4, 11/05:6, 2/06:7, 6/06:4, 8- 9/06:5, 12/06:8, 3/07:5, 5/07:6, 8-9/07:5, 11/07:6, 6/08:5, 8-9/08:6 annual trends 2/03:8, 3/04:5, 2/05:7, 3/07:5, 3/08:6 market share 10/05:5, 6/06:5, 12/06:9, 4/07:6, 3/08:7 value added and productivity methodological changes in measuring competitiveness 12/06:26 Competitiveness of nations global competitiveness and country risk, int. comparison 3/03:6 global competitiveness IMD's annual report 5/03:17, 5/04:18, 5/05:20-21, 7/05:22-23, 5/06:19-20, 5/07:23-24 - location attractiveness 11/03:20-21 WEF Report 1/05:18-19, 12/05:17-18, 1/06:19, 1/07:24-25 Country risk see Competitiveness of nations Crime international comparison 3/03:26 trends in Slovenia 4/03:17 Development Report 3/03:20-21, 3/05:4-5, 5/06:4-5 Distributive trades selected indicators 3/06:11, 8-9/06:16, 12/06:18, 3/07:11, 6/07:13, 8-9/07:16, 12/07:13, 3/08:17, 6/08:16, 8-9/08:16 value added 3/03:15, 6/03:12, 8-9/03:17, 12/03:13, 6/04:14, 8-9/04:19, 3/06:11, 7/06:15, 8-9/06:16, 12/06:18, 3/07:11, 6/07:13, 8-9/07:16, 12/07:13, 3/08:17, 6/08:16, 8-9/08:16 sales capacities 12/06:23 competition 2/07:22 Earnings gross wage per employee by activities 1/03:10, 2/03:14-15, 4/03:12, 5/03:11, 6/03:10, 7/03:12, 8-9/03:13, 10/03:9, 11/03:11, 12/03:10, 1/04:11, 2/04:12, 3/04:12, 4/04:13, 5/04:11, 6/04:10, 7/04:11, 8-9/04:13, 10/04:13, 11/04:12, 12/04:10, 1/05:11, 2/05:14, 7/05:3, 8-9/05:12, 10/05:14, 11/05:14, 12/05:10, 1/06:12, 2/06:13, 3/06:9, 4/06:14, 5/06:10, 6/06:12-13, 7/06:11, 89/06:12, 10/06:11, 11/06:12, 12/06:15, 1/07:12, 2/07:12, 3/07:8, 4/07:14, 5/07:11, 6/07:11, 7/07:12, 8-9/07:12, 10/07:11, 11/07:12, 12/07:11, 1/08:12, 2/08:10, 3/08:15, 4/08:12, 5/08:9, 6/08:11, 7/08:12, 89/08:12 earnings in the public sector 7/07:19-20, 6/08:12 Economic growth see GDP see also Sustainable development see also Strategy for the Economic Development of Slovenia Economic Policy Government's Programme for Effective Integration into the European Union 7/03:3 Programme for Entering the ERM II and Introducing the Euro 11/03:3 Education see Human resources Energy sector electricity selected indicators (production and consumption, international comparison) 1/03:13, 4/03:15, 7/03:15, 10/03:12, 1/04:14, 4/04:15, 7/04:15, 10/04:16, 1/05:14, 4/05:14, 7/05:14, 10/05:17, 1/06:15, 4/06:17, 7/06:13, 10/06:14, 1/07:15, 4/07:16, 7/07:15, 11/07:15, 1/08:15, 4/08:15, 7/08:14 prices 10/04:16, 2/07:20-21 international comparison 7/06:13, 2/07:20-21 electricity market 2/07:20-21, 11/07:15 oil and oil products excise duties 1/03:13, 7/03:15, 4/04:15 prices - international comparison 1/03:13, 4/03:15, 7/03:15, 10/03:12, 1/05:14 pricing model for liquid fuel prices 1/03:13, 4/03:15, 4/04:15, 7/04:15,19 Environment - Environmental policy see also Sustainable development environmental component of economic development 5/07:17 greenhouse gas emissions 6/07:22-23, 4/08:19 EU economic trends and forecasts 3/03:4-5, 7/03:4, 8-9/03:5, 7/04:3,19, 11/05:3, 11/06:4, 3/08:5, 4/08:3-4 Lisbon strategy 11/05:4-5 Stability and growth pact 10/06:19 tax and contributions structure 11/05:19-20 public finance flows between SLO and EU 1/07:26, 10/07:22-23 regional disparities: 4/08:20 Exchange rate see Competitiveness Exchange rate mechanism (ERM) II 6/04:3, 6/04:6 External debt of Slovenia 2/03:6, 10/04:6, 3/05:6 external debt statistics according to new methodology: - gross external debt it s dynamic indicators 10/03:20 foreign exchange reserves/external debt 2/03:6 Forecasts for Slovenian economy by IMAD autumn forecasts 8-9/03:3, 10/04:3-4, 8-9/05:4, 8-9/06:4, 8-9/07:3, 8-9/08:3 spring forecasts 4/03:3-4, 4/04:3-4, 4/05:3-4, 4/06:3-4, 4/07:4, 3/08:3 Foreign analysts forecasts 4/06:5 GDP - Slovenia annual and quarterly growth 3/03:3, 8-9/03:4, 3/04:3, 3/05:3, 3/06:3, 3/07:3, 12/07:3, 3/08:4, 6/08:3, 8-9/08:4 - economic growth components 3/03:3, 89/03:4, 3/04:3, 3/05:3, 3/07:3, 12/07:5, 3/08:4, 8-9/08:4 - international comparison see International environment quarterly growth 6/03:3, 8-9/03:4, 12/03:3, 3/04:3, 6/04:3, 8-9/04:3, 12/04:3, 1/05:3, 3/05:3, 8-9/06:3, 11/06:4-5, 11/07:4-5, 12/07:3, 12/07:5, 2/08:4, 3/08:5, 5/08:4, 6/08:4, 8-9/08:5 Past and Future of Slovenian GDP 12/04:22 Room for Future Improvement of Slovenian GDP Growth 12/04:23 Global competitiveness see Competitiveness of nations Households private consumption and indebtedness 1/04:13, 7/04:13, 8-9/04:15, 12/04:12, 3/05:16, 6/05:11, 8-9/05:15, 12/05:11, 3/06:12, 6/06:15, 8-9/06:15, 12/06:17, 3/07:9, 3/07:18, 6/07:15, 8-9/07:15, 12/07:15, 3/08:19, 6/08:14, 8-9/08:15 available and allocated assets of households 12/05:19, 1/07:20-21, 12/07:20-21, 1/08:22, 7/08:21-22 Human development see Social indicators Human resources see also Social Indicators Education youth in secondary education 6/07:19-21 adults in secondary schools 7/06:22-23 informal/continuing education 10/06:18, 12/07:19 lifelong learning 6/06:21-22 higher education 7/05:20-21, 8-9/05:22, 7/06:24 higher education-scholarships 8-9/06:21, 1/08:19 mobility of students 4/07:24-25, 5/07:18-19 expenditure on educational institutions -international comparison 6/05:17, 1/06:20-21 public expenditure on education -international comparison 12/04:21, 1/06:2021 science and technology graduates 3/06:1617 Industry and construction construction 2/03:17, 5/03:14, 8-9/03:16, 11/03:14, 2/04:15, 5/04:14, 8-9/04:18, 12/04:14, 2/05:17, 5/05:12, 8-9/05:14, 11/05:16, 2/06:15, 5/06:12, 8-9/06:14, 11/06:14, 2/07:14, 5/07:13, 8-9/07:14, 11/07:14, 2/08:12, 5/08:11, 8-9/08:14 manufacturing technology intensity 10/07:20-21, 11/07:13 production volumes, trends, forecasts and employment 1/03:12, 3/03:17, 4/03:14, Index Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 8-9/2008 p. A 19 5/03:13, 6/03:13, 7/03:14, 8-9/03:15, 10/03:11, 11/03:13, 12/03:12, 2/04:14, 5/04:13, 6/04:12, 7/04:14, 8-9/04:17, 10/04:15, 11/04:14, 12/04:13, 1/05:13, 2/05:16, 4/05:13, 5/05:11, 6/05:12, 7/05:12, 8-9/05:13, 10/05:15, 11/05:15, 12/05:12, 1/06:13, 2/06:14, 3/06:10, 4/06:15, 5/06:11, 6/06:14, 7/06:12, 8-9/06:13, 10/06:12, 11/06:13, 12/06:16, 1/07:13, 2/07:13, 4/07:15, 5/07:12, 6/07:12, 7/07:13, 8-9/07:13, 10/07:12, 11/07:13, 12/07:12, 1/08:13, 2/08:11, 3/08:16, 4/08:13, 5/08:10, 6/08:13, 7/08:13, 8-9/08:13 value added and productivity by activities 8-9/03:15 Industrial policy State aid - international comparisons 1/03:16 Industrial relations see also Labour market employment relationship collective bargaining coverage and extension procedures 2/04:22-23 European works councils 5/05:22 working time 11/04:20 data collections and international comparisons 3/04:20-21 membership in employers' organisations 12/03:18 employee participation in a European Joint-Stock Company 3/05:23 Inflation see Prices Institutions trust in institutions 4/06:21 Insurance sector international comparison export financing and export credit insurance see Balance of payments / foreign trade policy International environment 7/03:4, 8-9/03:5, 1/05:3, 5/05:3, 4/06:5, 12/06:6-7, 1/07:4, 2/07:4-5, 3/07:4, 4/07:5, 5/07:4-5, 6/07:4, 7/07:4, 8-9/07:4, 10/07:4, 11/07:4-5, 12/07:4, 1/08:4, 2/08:4, 4/08:3, 5/08:3-4, 6/08:4, 7/08:4, 8-9/08:5 Germany 1/02:5, 3/03:4,5, 7/03:4, 4/06:5, 12/06:6-7, 2/07:4, 4/07:5, 5/07:4-5, 7/07:4, 1/08:4, 5/08:4, 6/08:4, 7/08:4 candidate-countries for the EU economic developments and forecasts 4/02:4 Croatia 3/07:4, 6/07:4 Labour market see also Industrial relations unemployment structure of registered unemployment 2/03:13, 7/03:11, 8-9/03:12, 1/06:11, 2/08:9 survey unemployment rate 3/03:12, 5/03:10, 8-9/03:12, 2/04:11, 2/05:13, 2/06:3, 12/06:14, 2/07:3, 2/07:11, 5/07:3, 2/08:9, 5/08:8 selected labour market indicators 1/03:9, 2/03:13, 3/03:12, 4/03:11, 5/03:10, 6/03:9, 7/03:11, 8-9/03:12, 10/03:8, 11/03:10, 12/03:9, 1/04:10, 2/04:11, 3/04:11, 4/04:12, 5/04:10, 6/04:9, 7/04:10, 8-9/04:12, 10/04:12, 11/04:11, 12/04:9, 1/05:10, 2/05:13, 3/05:11, 4/05:11, 5/05:10, 6/05:10, 7/05:11, 8-9/05:11, 10/05:13, 11/05:13, 12/05:9, 1/06:10, 2/06:11, 3/06:8, 4/06:12, 5/06:3, 5/06:9, 6/06:11, 7/06:10, 8-9/06:11, 10/06:10, 11/06:11, 12/06:14, 1/07:11, 2/07:10, 3/07:7, 4/07:13, 5/07:10, 6/07:3, 6/07:10, 7/07:11, 89/07:11, 10/07:10, 11/07:11, 12/07:10, 1/08:11, 2/08:8, 3/08:14, 4/08:11, 5/08:8 , 6/08:10, 7/08:11, 8-9/08:11 vacancies and people hired 2/06:12 job vacancy rate 10/07:18 education structure of persons in employment 12/03:9 employment by activities 4/06:13 employment rate of older workers 8-9/04:25 employment of foreigners 4/07:22-23 jobs and (un)employment across regions 3/03:19, 8-9/07:21, 10/07:19 labour market flexibility 3/05:20-21 occupational structure of labour demand 4/03:11 structural unemployment 10/03:8 part-time work 2/03:19 employment programmes 10,000 Programme 11/03:10 Public Works Programmes 4/04:12 Programme of promoting self-employment 5/04:10 legislation Employment of Foreigners Act 6/03:9 Vocational Rehabilitation and Employment of Disabled Persons Act 7/04:10 productivity growth 1/04:10 Manufacturing see Industry Money market and monetary policy money aggregates, interest and exchange rates 1/03:6, 2/03:10, 3/03:9, 4/03:7, 5/03:7, 6/03:6, 7/03:7, 10/03:6, 11/03:7, 12/03:6, 1/04:6, 2/04:8, 3/04:8, 4/04:8, 5/04:7, 6/04:6, 7/04:6, 8-9/04:9, 10/04:8, 11/04:8, 12/04:6, 1/05:6, 2/05:10, 3/05:8, 4/05:7, 5/05:7, 6/05:7, 7/05:6, 8-9/05:8, 10/05:8, 11/05:10, 12/05:6 monetary policy guidelines 10/02:3-4 banks money market, loans 1/03:8, 2/03:12, 3/03:11, 4/03:9, 5/03:9, 6/03:8, 7/03:9, 89/03:11, 11/03:9, 12/03:8, 1/04:8, 2/04:10, 3/04:10, 4/04:10, 5/04:9, 6/04:8, 7/04:8, 89/04:11, 10/04:10, 11/04:10, 12/04:8,1/05:8, 2/05:12, 3/05:10, 4/05:9, 5/05:9, 6/05:9, 7/05:8, 8-9/05:10, 10/05:10, 11/05:12, 12/05:8, 1/06:7, 2/06:10, 3/06:7, 4/06:9, 6/06:8, 7/06:6, 8-9/06:9, 10/06:6, 11/06:9, 12/06:12, 1/07:7, 4/07:10, 5/07:9, 6/07:9, 7/07:8, 8-9/07:10, 10/07:7, 11/07:10,12/07:9, 1/08:8, 2/08:7, 3/08:11, 4/08:8, 6/08:9, 7/08:8, 8-9/08:10 savings with banks and mutual funds 1/03:7, 2/03:11, 3/03:10, 4/03:8, 5/03:8, 6/03:7, 7/03:8, 8-9/03:10, 11/03:8, 12/03:7, 1/04:7, 2/04:9, 3/04:9, 4/04:9, 5/04:8, 6/04:7, 7/04:7, 8-9/04:10, 10/04:9, 11/04:9, 12/04:7, 1/05:7, 2/05:11, 3/05:9, 4/05:8, 5/05:8, 6/05:8, 7/05:7, 8-9/05:9, 10/05:9, 11/05:11, 12/05:7, 1/06:6, 2/06:9, 3/06:6, 4/06:8, 5/06:21, 6/06:9, 7/06:7, 8-9/06:10, 10/06:7, 11/06:10, 12/06:13, 1/07:8, 4/07:9, 5/07:8, 6/07:8, 7/07:7, 8-9/07:9, 10/07:6, 11/07:9, 12/07:8, 1/08:7, 2/08:6, 3/08:12, 4/08:7, 6/08:8, 7/08:7, 8-9/08:9 Maastricht criteria long-term interest rates 5/04:19 Population 1/07:22-23, 12/07:22-23 household savings see The money market Prices price trends - inflation, administered and unregulated prices 1/03:5, 2/03:9, 3/03:8, 4/03:6, 5/03:6, 6/03:5, 7/03:6, 8-9/03:9, 10/03:5, 11/03:6, 12/03:5, 1/04:5, 2/04:7, 3/04:7, 4/04:7, 5/04:6, 6/04:5, 7/04:5, 8-9/04:8, 10/04:7, 11/04:7, 12/04:5, 1/05:5, 2/05:9, 3/05:7, 4/05:6, 5/05:6,23,24, 6/05:6, 7/05:5, 8-9/05:3, 8-9/05:7, 10/05:3, 10/05:7, 11/05:9, 12/05:3,5, 1/06:5, 2/06:8, 3/06:5, 4/06:7, 5/06:8, 6/06:7, 7/06:5,19, 89/06:8, 10/06:5, 11/06:8, 12/06:3, 12/06:11, 1/07:6, 1/07:19, 2/07:9, 3/07:6, 4/07:8, 4/07:3, 5/07:3, 5/07:7, 6/07:3, 6/07:7, 7/07:3, 7/07:6, 8-9/07:3, 8-9/07:8, 10/07:3, 10/07:5, 11/07:3, 11/07:8, 12/07:3, 12/07:7, 1/08:6, 2/08:3, 2/08:5, 3/08:3, 3/08:10, 4/08:6, 5/08:3, 5/08:7, 6/08:3, 6/08:7, 7/08:3, 7/08:6, 8-9/08:8 prices policy 5/05:23, 6/05:6 harmonised index of consumer prices 1/05:22 core inflation 2/03:9, 3/03:8, 6/03:5 producer prices 3/07:6 bond yield curve see Money market and Monetary policy and Stock Exchange Productivity see Industry and Competitiveness Private Consumption see Households Public finance general government revenue 1/03:11, 2/03:16, 3/03:13, 4/03:13, 5/03:12, 6/03:11, 7/03:13, 10/03:10, 11/03:12, 12/03:11, 1/04:12, 2/04:13, 3/04:13, 4/04:14, 5/04:12, 6/04:11, 7/04:12, 8-9/04:14, 10/04:14, 11/04:13, 12/04:11, 1/05:12, 2/05:15, 4/05:12, 7/05:10, 10/05:12, 1/06:9, 4/06:11, 7/06:9, 10/06:9, 1/07:10, 4/07:12, 7/07:10, 10/07:9, 1/08:10, 3/08:13, 4/08:10, 7/08:10 general government expenditures 3/05:12, 6/06:10, 3/08:13 general government balance 12/04:3, 3/05:12, 3/08:13 state budget 3/05:12, 7/08:19-20 public expenditure on education - international comparison 12/04:21 Public services network see also Human resources 7/04:20 - international comp. 7/04:21 Public institutes financial results in 2002 11/03:18 financing 11/03:19 Public Health Institutes 2/04:20-21 Quality of life seeSocial indicators Research and development see Technological development Regional development company performance by regions 7/05:24, 2/07:24-25 development deficiency index 7/06:25 jobs and (un)employment across regions 10/03:16, 4/04:20, 7/05:24, 2/07:24-25, 89/07:21, 10/07:19 regional GDP 8-9/03:19, 4/04:20, 7/04:23, 7/05:24, 2/06:19 population's education structure - regional aspect 6/03:15, 4/04:20 population's demographic structure 5/06:24, 11/07:20 personal income tax base per capita 6/06:20, 3/08:23 Report on structural reforms 10/03:3 structural changes in network industries 4/07:26-27 Report on economic and social cohesion 2/04:18-19 Services domestic trade see Distributive trades information technology see Information technology real estate, renting and business services 4/04:16, 5/05:15, 12/05:13 prices of telecommunication services 2/06:20 tourism see Tourism trade in services see Balance of payments Social indicators civil society see Civil society equal opportunities policy 1/04:20-21, 3/04:1819, 2/05:21-22 trust in other people 6/06:19 Human Development Report 5/03:18-19, 8-9/05:19, 11/06:17, 1/08:23 Social Overview 2006 12/06:4-5 human resources mortality caused by injuries: - due to external causes of injury 4/03:18 - by age and gender 5/03:20 gender-related development index 3/03:22, 10/05:21 gender empowerment measure 10/03:17, 10/04:19 gender equality 10/04:19 human development index 7/03:17, 7/04:22 health insurance - supplementary 1/04:19 health expenditure 2/07:23, 4/07:30-31 social welfare cash benefits 11/06:18 social protection of the elderly 3/03:23 indicators (happiness, satisfaction with life, etc) 12/04:24-25, 3/06:18, 4/07:28-29 jobless households 3/07:15 long-term care 12/04:26-27, 4/07:32 the at-risk-of-poverty rate 11/03:22, 11/04:17, 6/07:24, 2/08:15 transfers expenditures for social protection 4/04:19, 3/06:19, 11/07:21 social benefits: - pensions 2/07:19 - financial social assistance 1/05:17 trust in institutions see Institutions Index Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 8-9/2008 p. A 20 Stock exchange turnover, capitalisation, indices 4/03:10, 7/03:10, 10/03:7, 1/04:9, 4/04:11, 7/04:9, 10/04:11, 1/05:9, 4/05:10, 7/05:9, 10/05:11, 1/06:8, 4/06:10, 7/06:8, 10/06:8, 1/07:9, 4/07:11, 7/07:9, 10/07:8, 1/08:9, 4/08:9, 7/08:9 Strategy of Slovenia's Development 6/05:4,5 Sustainable development ecological footprint 8-9/05:20-21 Technological development R&D activity in Slovenia 10/03:18-19 Public Research Institutes 11/05:21-22 science and technology graduates/students 3/06:16-17, 11/07:22-23 Tourism travels of domestic population 1/03:14, 3/03:16, 5/03:15, 7/03:16, 1/04:16, 12/04:28, 1/06:22, 1/07:27 foreign exchange receipts 3/06:15, 12/06:19, 3/08:18, 8-9/08:17 overnight stays by resort 3/03:16, 5/03:15, 1/04:15, 5/06:13, 6/07:14 selected indicators 3/03:16, 5/03:15, 10/03:13, 1/04:15, 6/04:13, 8-9/04:21, 12/04:17, 3/05:14, 5/05:14, 10/05:18, 1/06:16, 5/06:13, 8-9/06:17, 12/06:19, 3/07:10, 6/07:14, 89/07:17, 12/07:14, 3/08:18, 6/08:15, 89/08:17 survey on foreign tourists in the summer season 6/04:19 Transport selected indicators 5/03:16, 11/03:15, 2/04:16, 5/04:15, 8-9/04:20, 12/04:15, 3/05:15, 7/05:13, 10/05:16, 1/06:14, 4/06:16, 7/06:14, 10/06:13, 1/07:14, 4/07:17, 7/07:14, 10/07:13, 1/08:14, 4/08:14, 7/08:15 Value added see Competitiveness and Industry and Distributive trades Welfare see Sustainable development social welfare indicators: see Social indicators Acronyms in the text have the following meanings: AIS-Agricultural Institute of Slovenia. AJPES-Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, AP-Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Payments, APr-Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Privatisation, BS-Bank of Slovenia, bn-billion, CCIS-Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Slovenia, CSCC-Central Securities Clearing Corporation, DUNZ-Directorate of Administrative Interior Affairs, DURS-Tax Administration of the Republic of Slovenia, EIMV-Electro Institute Milan Vidmar, ELES-Electro Slovenia, ESS-Employment Service of Slovenia, GEM-Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, HICP-Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, HII-Health Insurance Institute, ICT-information and communications technologies, IER-Institute for Economic Research, IAAD-International Administrative Affairs Directorate, IMAD-Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, IPI-Industrial Price Index, LSE-Ljubljana Stock Exchange, m-million, MAFF-Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Food, MEA-Ministry of Economic Affairs, MES-Ministry of Education and Sport, MESP-Ministry of the Environment and Spatial Planning, MF-Ministry of Finance, MIA-Ministry of Internal Affairs, MLFSA-Ministry of Labour, Family and Social Affairs, MMTS-Market Maker Trading Segment, MST-Ministry of Science and Technology, N/A or (-)-not available, N/R-not reasonable, NFC-National Financial Corporation, NPISH-Non-Profit Institutions Serving Households, OG-Uradni list Republike Slovenije (Official Gazette of the Republic of Slovenia), PDII-Pension and Disability Insurance Institute, p.p.-percentage points, PPA-Public Payments Administration of the Republic of Slovenia, PPP-purchasing power parity, PPS-purchasing parity standards, SCA - Standard Classification of Activities, SDC-Slovene Development Corporation, SEC-Slovene Exports Corporation, SIA-Slovenian Insurance Association, SITC-Standard International Trade Classification, SMARS-Surveying and Mapping Authority of the Republic of Slovenia, SORS-Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities (SCA): A-Agriculture, hunting, forestry, B-Fishing, C-Mining and quarrying, D-manufacturing, DA-food beverages and tobacco, DB-textiles and textile products, DC-leather and leather products, DD-wood and wood products, DE-paper, publishing, printing, DF-coke, petroleum products and nuclear fuel, DG-chemicals, DH-rubber and plastic products, DI-non-metal mineral products, DJ-metals and metal products, DK-machinery and equipment, DL-electrical and optical equipment, DM-transport equipment, DN-furniture and NEC, E-Electricity, gas and water supply, F-Construction, G-Wholesale, retail, trade, repair, H-Hotels and restaurants, I-Transport, storage, communications, J-Financial intermediation, K-Real estate, renting and business activities, L-Public administ. & defence; comp. soc. sec., M-Education, N-Health and social work, O-Other social and personal services. Acronyms of Countries: AT-Austria, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, EL-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, I-Italy, IE-Ireland, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LV-Latvia, LT-Lithuania, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America, PL-Poland, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia. Data: data for trends and seasonally adjusted series are calculated by using TRAMO-SEATS method if not stated otherwise. The IMAD's Other Publications Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 8-9/2008 Social Overview 2006, 2007 Forecasts of Economic Trends Autumn Forecast of Economic Trends 2008 Analysis, Research and Development Slovenia's Development Strategy (SDS 2006-2013), 2005 Spring Report 2006 Autumn Report 2006 Human Development Report Slovenia 2002-2003 Development Report 2007 Slovenia - On the Way to the Information Society Working papers • No. 9/2008. Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables in Slovenia Using Dynamic Factor Models, Arjana Brezigar Masten, Marko Glažar, Janez Kušar, Igor Masten • No. 6/2007. Innovation Cooperation and Innovation Activity of Slovenian Enterprises, Jaklič Andreja, Jože P. Damijan, Matija Rojec • No. 11/2006. Firm of Private Value: What is Behind the Creation of Multiple Blockholder Structure? A. Brezigar Masten, A. Gregorič, K. Zajc • No. 2/2006. Does Exporting Boost Capital Investments? The Evidence from Slovenian Manufacturing Firms' Balance Sheets, A. Burger, M. Ferjančič • No. 5/2004. On the possibility of negative effects of EU entry on output, employment, wages and inflation in Slovenia, A. Brezigar • 4/2004. Future GDP growth in Slovenia: Looking for room for improvement, E. L. W. Jongen • 3/2004. An analysis of past and future GDP growth in Slovenia, E. L. W. Jongen • 1/2004. Productivity growth and functional upgrading in foreign subsidiaries in the Slovenian manufacturing sector, M. Rojec, B. Majcen, A. Jaklič, S. Radošević More Working papers are available in Slovene. 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