RAZGLEDI
SOME FEATURES OF THE HUMAN SPHERE IN SOUTH-TRANSDANUBIA
AVTORJI Klara Bank
Naziv: PhD, reader Jozsef Rudl Naziv: PhD, reader Robert Tesits
Naziv: PhD, lecturer
Naslov: University of Pics, Institute for Geography, Ifjusag u. 6, H - 7624 Pics, Hungary E-pošta: tesits@ ttk.pte.hu Telefon: 0036 72 503 600 4167 Faks: 0036 72501527
UDK: 911.3(4-12); COBISS: 1.02
ABSTRACT
Some features of the human sphere in South-Transdanubia
Worsening of demographic indexes can be observed in the 90's in South-Transdanubia (south-western Hungary). The birth rates have stabilised on a low level, however significant decrease in population number is expected mainly due to the growing mortality rate. The manpower structure has been shifted into unfavourable direction because of the low proportion of the youngsters and ageing in general. Unemployment has significantly reduced population mobility. The current situation of education is presented. Regarding manpower assets it is vital to assure equality of chance, to open up new working possibilities, and to conserve the existing ones. The general population health condition has worsened; there are fewer possibilities for prevention. Small villages are particularly underprivileged.
KEYWORDS
human geography, south-western Hungary, South-Transdanubia, unemployment, conditions of life, natality, mortality, mobility, migration, health condition, education, population
IZVLEČEK
Nekatere družbenogeografske značilnosti jugozahodne Madžarske
V devetdesetih letih so se v skrajnem jugozahodnem delu Madžarske slabšali prebivalstveni kazalci. Stopnja rodnosti se je ustalila na nizki ravni, zaradi naraščajoče smrtnosti pa lahko pričakujemo občutno zmanjšanje števila prebivalcev Sestava delovne sile je neugodna zaradi nizkega deleža mladih in staranja na splošno. Povečana brezposelnost je vplivala na občutno zmanjšanje prebivalstvene mobilnosti. Podano je stanje na področju izobraževanja. Treba je zagotavljati enake možnosti za vse in ohranjati delovna mesta. Splošno zdravstveno stanje prebivalstva se je poslabšalo, prav tako tudi možnosti za preventivo. Še posebej slab je položaj v manjših vaseh.
KLJUČNE BESEDE
družbena geografija, jugozahodna Madžarska, Podonavje, brezposelnost, življenjske razmere, rodnost, smrtnost, mobilnost, migracije, zdravstveno stanje, izobraževanje, prebivalstvo
Uredništvo je prispevek prejelo 12. novembra 2002.
1	Introduction
In our country the new regulation of spatial development, the National spatial development conception has set decentralised spatial development as an aim. According to this the regional units, the regions can enforce their aims due to their basic characteristics. They have to take into consideration their possibilities, the results of their past contacts and have to elaborate a new strategy of cooperation.
Considering the long lasting inappropriate human resource planning the preparation for the joining of the EU labour market has to be a basic aim. For this, one should survey resources, determine new strategic branches and have to enable the working force to be able to conform to the new challenges of the market. On the short run we have to concentrate on the holding up of the employment level, its stabilisation, the training of the unemployed and their reestablishment to the production at the highest possible level.
The area of the South-Transdanubian Region (Baranya, Somogy, Zala and Tolna counties in south-western part of Hungary between Slovenia, Lake Balaton, the Danube river and Croatia) covers 13,953 km2 or 19.3% of the whole state territory. Considering its location it can be advantageous that it can create connections with the southern countries of the EU, mainly with Northern Italy and Southern Germany and it could also play a mediatory role between central Europe and the Balkan and Asia Minor. Its position is rendered by being relatively far from Budapest, during the economic change it became a periphery within the country. The so far leading activities, mainly exploitation have been considerably reduced so the economic structure has weakened. The region therefore turned into a depressive area, its development has lagged far behind, especially in comparison with the Central and the Western Hungarian Region. Among the six major regions considering the GDP per capita South-Transdanubia (425 thousand Forints) is the third one in the country, but still 13% under the national average. The reason for the depression is mainly due to the underdeveloped transport infrastructure, and further on that it has produced mainly for the inner market, so the export extent is low. All this affects negatively the international capital inflow.
2	Demographic conditions in South-Transdanubia
2.1 The formation of the population
The region covers 19.3% of the country, but its share in the overall population does not exceed 12.7%. Its population density is with 71.5 capita/km2 under the countries' average (89.4 capita/km2) as well. Considering the counties individually only Baranya's average (91 capita/km2) exceeds the national average. It is followed by Zala (79 capita/km2) then Tolna (67 capita/km2), while Somogy county belongs to the rarely populated areas of the country (55 capita/km2). The highest population density is in the county towns and along the Lake Balaton. On acount of the economic development between 1870 and 1949 the population grew by 150% in the region. The rapid economic growth after the turn of the century strengthened the centres first. Among the county towns Pecs became a city first. The growth of Nagykanizsa and Zalaegerszeg was promoted by the discovered oil. Zalaegerszeg and Szekszard owe their rise to their county seat functions.
The other reason for the rapid development of the bigger centres after the second world war was that they attracted the young workforce from the agricultural areas, first from the neighbouring areas and than from the distant ones. In Somogy and Tolna counties the decreasing of the population started in the 1960s. In the rural areas where the population grow older first the migration turned into deficient, than with the early leaving of the reproductive population the natural reproduction as well. The announcement of the »primacy of the industry« caused inestimable loss in the villages' demographic circumstances.
The number of the population according to the national tendencies has decreased from 1980. The natural reproduction turned into decrease. Between 1970 and 1980 it was due to the incoming young workforce that the towns and their dominant agglomerations avoided the formation of demographic depression. Between 1980 and 1990 even Pecs's and Kaposvar's natural reproduction is negative as well. In 1997 only some transport centres (e. g. Csurgo, Lengyeltoti) or the developing Paks after the building of the nuclear station could produce natural increase.
However, a lower number of birth ratios are characteristic at the towns as well. The low values of Sasd (8.0), Tab, Mohacs, Szekszard (8.2) are related to the problems of the towns as well. Its reasons can be the uncertainty of employment, lower incomes, the relatively high proportion of the young unemployed, the more intense involvement of women mainly to the service sector, or the weakening of the stability of the families.
Between 1990 and 1995 59,600 children were born in the region. The average number of children in the families is 1.78, in the county seats 1.54, in other towns 1.68 while in the villages 2.0 children are born in a family.
In the South-Transdanubian Region the death ratios differ from the national average negatively as well and clearly proof the age composition and supply indexes. The population having far the worst conditions in the region lives in the areas of Zala characterised by small villages and in some rural areas featured by disadvantageous transport situation. In 1997 the death rate in the villages out of the centre settlements was 18.5%o in the Lenti and Letenye districts, 18.1%o in the Csurgo district and 17.4%o in the Nagyatad district.
The increase of the life expectancy was an interesting concomitant of the demographic boom. In our country from the 1980s first stagnation then a powerful decrease ensued. In the region its value was 68.5 years which is lower than the counties' average. Women live an average 9.1 years longer in our region but in the cities this number is 7.8 years. According to a prognosis (Hablicsek 1998) between 1994 and 2000 the fertility decreased by 16% but till 2010 the number of children will increase by 13% and until 2020 this ratio will be stabilised. On the other hand concerning mortality such a move will not be experienced as more and more age groups reach to be considered to the elder population and just a few achievements were accomplished against the harms of civilisation which are the main reasons for mortality.
3 The migration of the population
The size and direction of the migration is first of all determined by economic and social factors. The process can be related to the change of the employment structure as well. Previously the main moving factor was unambiguously the industry. Lately the main reasons have been to reach better infrastructure, more favourable circumstances of life, and environmental effects. All this is incident to decrease of the migration intensity. The slowing of the internal and external migrations is connected with the equalized differences between the regions and within a region.
Among the forms of migration the external migrations were not taken into consideration at the former regional concepts. After the gaining of the EU membership if the wage standard differences remain it is very likely that a more significant employment migration will start to move towards the countries providing higher incomes. When the wages will come near henceforward only some guest workers will try to find job and employment abroad. It is worth recording the actual guest workers as well. Previously their money in the lack of enterprising possibilities and chances become »dead capital«. Nowadays we have to urge the capital taken home getting into the productive sphere.
It is characteristic of the internal migration of the South-Transdanubian region that in 1997 Zala county experienced active migration against all other counties in the region, Baranya had passive rates against all the others, which also represent the economic changes of the region. In 1997 only Baranya's
migration loss proved to be significant (774 person), Somogy closed the year with an active index. In Baranya the more intensive internal migrations represent the structural changes holding until nowadays. (The internal migrations are 2.4 more frequent than the external.) In Zala county the effect of the stronger attracting factor of the Western Hungarian and Middle Transdanubian regions the external migrations are more powerful.
14.5% of the migrating population moved from town to town. Apart from the employment factor its reasons are the more favourable infrastructural circumstances or for example moving to the school. 31% of the migrating population moved from town to village. The reason for this is becoming unemployed, or moving to the suburbs, etc. In 1997 apart from Nagykanizsa all the towns experienced a migration loss which represents the change of the production structure of the towns and also that the private capital considers the villages suitable for creating smaller producing investments. The unemployed people moved from town to village will only remain there if finding jobs. Otherwise they move back to the town again and become town tramps because the conditions for getting job are still more likely there. We also have to promote the creation of new jobs, the employment of the local workforce in the villages as well. The migrating population from villages to towns (29% of all migrations) first of all settled to the place of employment. By increasing the mobility of the workforce we could influence the scale of removals. Moving from village to village presented 25.5% of all migrations. The village centre could play an important attraction on the smaller settlements. The ratio of the temporary commuters has decreased. The significant commuter's zones surrounding the cities emerged in the region as well, after the change of regime parallel with the decrease of the workforce for the heavy industry, the rearrangement towards the third sector started and due to this phenomenon the ratio of the migrating population decreased as well. In 1977 already 50.1% of the active employees migrating daily worked in the service sector in Somogy, 49.2% in Zala, while in Baranya and Zala this proportion was 40.4 and 39.7%. The ratio of the daily migrating people could increase in the near future. With the improvement of the living conditions the mobility of the population grows. They move to the suburbs from where they daily travel to the city centre which more and more takes over the role of the work place.
It is worth mentioning the »outmigrating« from towns. The majority of the population migrating out are intellectuals (teacher, doctor, agrarian skilled worker). The living circumstances and infrastructure of the village so far cannot stick them remain. After their settling down they could be involved in the directing of the village. In the leading committee of the village the local entrepreneur cannot replace their absence.
4 Real reproduction
The population of the region on the forthcoming quarter of the century will continuously decrease. The forecast of the natural reproduction showed that the birth ratios will be stabilised after 2010 but the mortality rates will be higher and in the first 10 years of the period they will probably increase as well. The permanent migrations though will not interfere in the formation of the population, the migrations there and back will equalise each other in the region. Hence with the natural decrease the population of the region will presumably decrease by 12% (Hablicsek 1998). This means that comparing to 1995 in 2020 the region consisting four counties will have 154,000 less inhabitants. (The three counties with 116,000 persons less) The population of Somogy, Tolna and Baranya will decrease to 884,000, with Zala 1.1 million.
Within the region differentiated changes are expected by types of settlements. The population of the towns due to the recent tendencies will decrease faster (15%), the population of the villages only by 10-11%. Among the towns the population of the bigger ones will possible decrease more for a while, but with new inflow of capital and creation of jobs this tendency will likely slow down. A slower decrease is expected at the smaller towns as well because their establishment of complete functions satisfying the needs of the
microregion they will be able to hold the workforce as well. The countryside will suit its infrastructure step by step for receiving the people moving out of the towns. With the improvement of the mobility of the population the desurbanisational process, the moving out to the rural areas will begin in the development of the town. This process due to the lack of financial chances in the region will be carried out slowly and prospectively at the end of the period after the joining of the EU it will surely strengthen. This tendency will hopefully put an end to the depopulation of the areas characterised by small villages.
5 Structure of population
5.1	Structure of population by age
The age structure is significantly influenced by the births and deaths, and further on the general lengthening of lifetime. Concerning its fluctuation wars, depressions, effects of population-politics, and migrations have their impact. This process is true inversely as well: the age structure of the population has its effects on the demographic processes.
In 1977 out of the 1283 thousand inhabitants of the region only 17.3% was under 14. Comparing it to 1990 as well as the under 20 population their number is 3.2% less. In the beginning of the 1990s the culmination of the Ratko-era has brought only a slight increase concerning the birth rates and in 1996 though a nadir was experienced. The absence of the young generation is especially present in the villages where only one or two births are discovered in a year. Due to the lack of children the schools closed, children need to go to central district institutions, increasing the number of the migrating population. The ratio of the elder generation grew from 19% (1990) to 19.9% (1997) in the region. The proportion of the elder generation is this high in spite of the fact that at the top of the age pyramid those smaller age groups are to be found who even lived in and experienced the second world war. The aging of the population is clearly presented by the dependency rate and the aging index. On the basis of the latter Zala became the oldest county of the region. Its aging index between 1990 and 1997 grew by 29.7%, in Baranya by 22.7%.
In the spatial differences of the age structure migration played an important role. With the socialist industrialisation process the villages could not be able to overcome the migration of the young work force. Its aging inhabitants are in need of the state support more and more. The age structure of the towns was essentially more advantageous till this migration lasted. In the 1980s aging started there as well. This aging process seems to be permanent. Between 1995 and 2020 the more sharp changes are to be expected in the age structure (Hablicsek 1998). A strong decrease of the young generation, a significant increase of the elder generation, the fluctuation of the number of middle aged people and the slow decrease of their proportion is to be expected. The number of the 0-19 years old nationally decrease by 23%, in the region by 24%, and the number of the young employees (20-39 years old) by 17%. Until 2020 a more than 10% of decrease is to be expected in the villages by the ratio of the more than 60 years old generation (due to the former greater death rate). On the contrary in the cities their number could grow by 38% (Hablicsek 1998), so the age structure of the villages will demonstrate the younger image. In 2020 on the basis of the above mentioned we can talk about aging cities, small cities gaining back their population support potential, and village centres.
5.2	Structure by sex
The proportion of the women will grow in the region. In the younger generations a slight male dominance is to be experienced. By the age of 50-55 the death frequency of men is 2.5 times bigger than of the women in the region. Until the age of 60 34% of the male population dies, 36% in Somogy, this proportion is 14% at the women. Until 2020 females will be less by 9%, males by 14%.
5.3 Structure by occupation
Considering the structure by occupation we research mainly the change of the proportion of the active earners, their different activities in the economy and their spatial distribution. The ratio of the active earners in the region dropped back from 47.1% (1980) to 34.1% (1996). This considerable proportion is related to the aging of the labour force as well, essentially though to the high ratio of the population emerging from work, and to a lesser extent to the increase of the young annuitants, the inactive population. In the villages of the region this problem is more remarkable: in 1980 45.1% of the population of the villages was active, while in 1996 only 28.6%. A considerable part of the unemployed returned back to the villages. On the other hand after the disorganisation of the cooperatives the ratio of the pensioners grew. Among the town and village labour force besides the inactive population, a significant amount of reserve forces appeared, which has to be provided by job in the near future and which can maintain the cheap labour force for a long time.
The structural change of the economic structure is also presented by the distribution of the earners by economic branches. In 1980 23.9% of the employees worked in agriculture, while in 1996 10.8%. It is the result of the wrong agro-privatisation that the workers of the cooperatives became mainly unemployed. The members in their smaller sized fields will not be able to take part in the EU's economy without working equipment. Not a new system of large estates, but a Western European-type cooperative system could recover from the agricultural crisis and let us join the EU.
The number of the industrial workers decreased rapidly, their proportion at a smaller extent comparing to the agriculture: it dropped back from 38.2% (1980) to 33.6% (1996). (The greatest change was experienced in Baranya: from 42.8% to 33.1%. In the Zala County their ratio grew from 39.4% to 39.9 %.) The ones leaving the two sectors mainly tried to find employment in the third sector and respectively they could start an enterprise with a smaller amount of capital. The qualification of the labour force considered to be good. Illiteracy practically disappeared. In our region only 1.2% of the population under 14 have not completed elementary school. Less than one fourth have not continued on with their studies after the elementary school. One third of them completed from skilled worker trainee or vocational school and 30% from grammar school. The ratio of the graduated people from university of high school is growing; in the region it reaches 14%. Within the region the proportion of the graduated people is higher where there is a regional university. In Baranya this ratio is 15.9%, in Zala 11.9%.
The intellectuals have settled down at a greater extent in the towns where they »outmigratec« into the villages. It would be important for the intellectuals to be attracted by the villages and small towns. There would also be a great need for the intellectuals practising locally in terms of the management and development of the area.
6 Unemployment
The result of the changes after the change of regime was the presence of unemployment in our region as well. By liquidating the uneconomically functioning factories and production techniques, sending away the hidden unemployment of the privatised factories, liquidating the agricultural cooperatives, etc. a considerable amount of work force was released. The agricultural and industrial production straggling behind the national average, the settlement system characterised by small villages, the unfavourable transport connections, the low level of infrastructure, the greater proportion of the gipsy population, etc. contributed to the fact that the regioncs unemployment rate was always higher than the national average.
In our region a bigger ratio of unemployment was first experienced in 1991. First it was induced in the small village area of Tolna after the transformation of the cooperatives, and then it spread both
spatially and temporarily uniformly due to the well known economic effects. By 1992 the region turned to a heavily strike area by unemployment, where the unemployment rate reached 12.3% (»the age of galloping unemployment«). There were some areas where this ratio was more than double of the national average. As a result of the 1993 privatisation process the number of new employers grew, but they employed less than the formerly planned numbers. The increase of the self-employed forced enterprises was mainly due to the result of the agricultural privatisation, but their activity was ceased due to the lack of capital in a short time. By the end of 1993 even the microregions, having the most advantageous situation in terms of the labour force market, have reached the highest unemployment rate: in the Pecs and Kaposvar microregions the unemployment rate grew to 8.5 and 12.5%. The nadir was experienced at the villages of the Ormansag populated by the gipsies, where the registered unemployed were between 30-60%, which was even higher in reality - in some settlements it could reach even 90%. In 1994 getting beyond the nadir, the number of the registered unemployed decreased in some microregions. First of all the proportion of people employed in the service sector grew. The international capital also discovered the huge amount of unskilled employees and some new enterprises were created. In that year the number of unemployed were really high. A slightly more favourable picture was experienced because by that time a lot of people emerged from the registration though effectively they remained unemployed. On the other hand the ratio of the active workers grew, mainly among women, and thirdly the active equipment of labour force market was widened. Parallel with this the number of the registered empty jobs grew as well. In 1995 a slight falling back was experienced. Due to the financial difficulties some enterprises finished with their activity or reduced staff. By 1996 only the situation of two bordering regions spoiled: the Sellye and Barcs microregions though in the latter a slight vividness is experienced.
Among the registered unemployed the ratio of the male population is bigger, in 1989 the employers mainly decided redundant the unskilled workers, and the oversized office apparatus, by the beginning of the 1990s with the exception of a few microregions the skilled workers were in majority among the unemployed. The distribution of the unemployed by age is connected to the national age structure. In the districts of the county seats and around Lake Balaton the ratio of the young unemployed is higher, while in the small village areas and in the agrarian regions the starters of career are lower but among the 26-45 aged age groups the unemployment is higher. The chances for employment for the young, skilled labour force is better than for the more aged age groups. Considering school qualification the most conspicuous difference is between those finished with elementary school and the ones having skilled worker certificate. Where the former production desired better qualification the skilled workers, in the mainly agrarian areas the ones finished with elementary school are in majority among the registered unemployed. The ratio of the skilled workers is decreasing, their employment chances are better.
Among the unemployed spatial types there is no such microregion which would be endangered only by a smaller extent. The areas around Lake Balaton are in relatively better positions where sea-sonality has to be eliminated and in the Pecs microregion. Here the unemployment rate has not reached the national average. The regions in between are for example the Bonyhad, Dombovar, Paks and Szekszard microregions, where the unemployment rate is around the national average. Those are in critical positions where the ratio is 1.5-2 times more than the national average (e.g. Siklos, Sellye, Barcs, Nagyatad, etc.).
The labour force market development of South-Transdanubia is mainly influenced by small and medium sized enterprises doing those economic activities characteristic of the area. The majority of these enterprises managed to overcome the structural change and the privatisation, so they are the biggest employers. By the turn of the millennium the employment structure has been stabilised. It is worth promoting the increase of the workers employed by the processing industry because we possess enough skilled labour force. This skilled labour force in the upcoming period could be the most important settling factor for the economic development.
7 Education
The »maintenance« of the human resources, the keeping of the ability to work has to be the main issue for every spatial development programs. Education has to be started as early as possible. Every child should attend to nursery at least from the age of five. Unfortunately the region is not provided well enough by nursery schools. There are some small village areas e. g. Sellye or Lenti region where more than 70% of the settlements are provided with no nursery schools. They are not only need of providing the maturity for schools. They could help in the supply for those in need of social provision for their feeding (one warm food per day). The provision by schools is also not favourable in the region. In the small village area of South-Transdanubia there are no functioning schools in 60-70% of the settlements (e. g. 74.5% of the Lenti region's settlements, 65.5 for the Zalegerszeg region, 65.5% in the Sellye region, etc.). Due to the low number of children unfortunately it is impossible to execute to have a school for every settlement. Central schools have to be established in one of the bigger settlements, or they have to be built along a main road between the spaces of the settlements. The school bus system has to be organised though to be able to take home the children fast and safe. Concerning the upper branches of the elementary school children have to be provided to be taught by subject teachers. The schools have to provide at least the teaching of one foreign language. The creating of the uniform requirement system requires the reestablishment of the subject control system, and further on regular teacher's training.
It has to remain the task of the grammar school to provide general education and further on to prepare its students for the higher training. In our region 122 secondary school functions, out of which nearly two thirds are technical schools and vocational schools. The number of the registered students into grammar schools and vocational schools increased, which is first of all to be explained by the decrease of the training of the skilled workers. We have to find the possibilities of professional training in the skilled workers' training as well. The present structure of the secondary school training is considered to be good. We have to make all efforts for as many students to finish with secondary school as possible. With the establishment of new subjects the school has to adapt itself for the new demand of the economy and society. It has to play its role in the adult trainee program as well. The agglomeration of the secondary school can reach out of the region's borders as well from where migration is not solved. These students have to be placed to dormitories. Anyhow one third of the students are migrating daily to school.
The economic production of a nation or a region, its ability for innovation or its development possibilities are related to its proportion of the »educated« people. Higher ratio of the educated people means better chances for adapting to the modern world. Production can be increased only to a certain level with only simple changes. A new quality can be brought only by a more complicated, thinking man's work. That's why the training of the intellectuals and their conservation has to be strongly stressed.
In our region 24 higher education institutions have been functioning. Out of this only 4 provides university diploma, all the others are colleges. Out of the 20 colleges 15 are placed branches. Only the two universities of Pécs provide a wide range of education, the Agricultural Universities of Keszthely and Kaposvâr give special education fitting into the main profile of production of the area. After the fusion of the Janus Pannonius University and the Medical Science University of Pécs the education will be even wider. According to the number of students and the attraction zone it has to be considered a regional university. Its placed branches are functioning out of the region as well. Our pedagogy colleges mainly train teachers for elementary education; the influence of special colleges e. g. medical college, etc. goes beyond the counties' borders.
The number of students increased significantly in the higher education institutions: between 1980 and 1997 2.66 times. 76.2% of the students attend to the institutions of Pécs, only 6.2% to the county seat of Tolna. The rapid growth of teachers' training at the colleges was that the one-subject training
became general, which was forced at the institutions by the introduction of the quotes per person. The other reason was the organisation of the correspondent training and the retrain training. We have two choices in the future: we either train students in large numbers, assuming responsibility for that despite of the introduction of modern subjects they will not be able to find employment, or we put up strict quota and try to satisfy the daily needs. The training structure has to be modernised in any case, but it would be more favourable if the training would be restricted only moderately by financial matters.
Besides higher education we have to stress researching as well. There are 172 research places in our region. This number is basically not considered to be low, but altogether 75% of them are found in Baranya. 11 research places in Tolna and 14 in Somogy. This ratio is related to the presence of the regional university since a considerable proportion of the research places operate at the universities. Research requires a significant amount of state finance. Only the rich patrons and firms can support research, in Europe there must be state tasks to be solved.
For measuring, developing and being able to compare the human resources the Development Plan of the UN (UNDP) created in 1990 the HDI (Human development index) index. Counting the index, income, health care, demographic, and schooling data are taken into consideration. In Hungary from the available statistics the GDP per person, the mean lifetime, the life expectancy at birth, the ratio of the illiterate and the mean number of finished classes are taken into consideration. Analysing the schooling index of the region we can see that only the index of Pecs is bigger than 10 which is due to the local universities, colleges and secondary schools. The indexes of county Somogy are a little bit contradictory because the higher values are not even reaching 9, though in Taszar it is 11.14 which is due to the educated and trained officers of the air base. The data of the settlements around Lake Balaton are more favourable in the county. In the middle sized villages of county Tolna the medium values are dominating more. In Zala there are a very few settlements reaching value 9. Unfortunately the areas of small villages, and the settlements populated by gipsy inhabitants show very low values in the whole region.
Health care needs basic improvement in the region as well. Though the family doctor districts were already crated there is no doctor living in the greater part of the settlements. This proportion is more favourable in the areas of middle sized villages (northern parts of Tolna and Somogy) and along Lake Balaton where this index is around 30%. There is no doctor living in more than 80% of the districts of the Sasd, Szigetvar and Pecsvarad microregions and more than 70% of the Sellye, Pecs, Zalaegerszeg, etc. microregions. This renders more difficulty to the looking after of the urgent cases, and makes impossible the preventive activities of the family doctors. The family doctors do not even have the needed basic equipment (laboratory equipment, X-ray, etc.). It has to be set as an aim to travel as short as possible for the patient to be able to get professional treatment. The developing of a system of moving ambulances, similar to the X-ray screening centres, would serve the professional treatment and prevention.
Professional treatment is only provided in the towns, though the population of the small cities have to face with difficulty as well. They will become overcrowded when the patients are ordered in from the agglomeration of the settlement. The specialists of the small towns send the patients to the county seats. The hospitals of the county basically have to face with financial difficulties. Their instrument apparatus is incomplete; they are not able to obtain the new equipment required by modern health care. The improvement of their instrument apparatus is a basic task and further on the wage-increase of the public health workers, the improvement of their working and living conditions.
The aging small villages of the region are more and more frequently constrained to the social care of their inhabitants. The social homes are filled to capacity; there is only a chance to get in for the old individual when someone leaves the place. The municipality is forced in more and more settlements to run day-care centres or pensioner's club for the elderly people. In these villages the provision of elderly people with food raises a problem. The functioning of day-care centres would solve the problem of the social care work as well.
8	Conclusion
In the 1990s a further deterioration of the demographic indexes is to be realised in South-Transdanubia. The birth ratios have been stabilised at a low level, but because of the increase of the mortality index we have to consider a significant decrease of population. Due to the low ratio of the young population and the general aging the structure of the labour force will be shifted to an unfavourable direction as well. Unemployment significantly decreased the migration of the population. The conditions for training the labour force are given. The creating of the equal chances concerning the labour force is necessary, as well as the promoting of creating and preserving jobs. The general health condition of the population deteriorated and there are fewer chances for prevention. The conditions of the region's small villages are particularly hard.
The labour force has to be prepared for the joining of the European Union. For this, providing equal chances in the labour force is not enough. The living conditions of the population have to be improved; the increase of their mobility has to be secured, the more and more wide range of employment, etc. Securing of the living place is a basic necessity, and putting an end to the process of the forming of small villages as well. For this as a first step new settlement centres, new small towns have to be developed to a level where their functions become full ranged, so the provision of the microregions are secured.
9	References
Farago, L. 1994: A Del-Dunantul teruletfejlesztesi koncepcioja. MTA RKK. Pecs.
Hablicsek, L. 1998: A del-dunantuli regio demografiai helyzete kulonos tekintettel a halandosagra, kilata-
sok 2020-ig. Pannon Almanach. Pecs. Rudl, J. 1998: Az uj kisvaros es a varosi funkciok. Foldrajzi Ertesito XLVII. Budapest. Tesits, R. 1998: Munkanelkuliseg es a gazdasagi innovaciok teruleti egyenlotlensegei a Del-Dunantulon:
PhD-thesis. Pecs.
10	Povzetek: Nekatere družbenogeografske značilnosti jugozahodne Madžarske
(prevedla Mimi Urbanc)
Cilj novega madžarskega predpisa o prostorskem razvoju, to je Osnove nacionalnega prostorskega razvoja, je decentralizirani prostorski razvoj. V skladu s tem lahko regionalne enote (regije) izdelajo svoje razvojne smernice. Upoštevati morajo svoje možnosti in tradicionalne stike med njimi ter izdelati novo strategijo medsebojnega sodelovanja.
Glede na dolgoletno nesmotrno politiko na področju človeških virov je priprava na vstop na evropski trg delovne sile ključnega pomena. Zato je treba oceniti vire, določiti nove strateške panoge in omogočiti delovni sili, da se ustrezno pripravi na nove tržen izzive. Na kratek rok se moramo osredotočiti na zaposlitveno raven, na njeno stabilizacijo, izobraževanje brezposelnih in njihovo čim večje ponovno vključevanje v procese dela.
Število prebivalcev jugozahodne Madžarske (območje med Balatonskim jezerom, Donavo, Hrvaško in Slovenijo, ki zavzema županije Baranya, Somogy, Zala in Tolna) upada vse od leta 1980. Naravne reprodukcije ni več. Zaradi priseljevanja mlade delovne sile med letoma 1970 in 1980 mesta in nekatere glavne aglomeracije niso beležile prebivalstvenega upada, v naslednjem desetletju pa sta celo največji mesti Pecs (Peč) in Kaposvar (Kapošvar) zabeležili negativno naravno rast. Leta 1997 so le še nekatera prometna središča in zaradi nuklearne elektrarne razvijajoči se Paks zabeležili pozitivni prirast.
Pri pregledu prostorske razmestitve brezposelnosti ugotovimo, da so vse mikroregije resno ogrožene. Edino Pecska mikroregija in območje Balatonskega jezera sta v relativno boljšem položaju, vendar
bi bilo treba pri slednjem omiliti vpliv sezonskosti. Stopnja brezposelnosti je tu nižja od državnega povprečja. Stopnja brezposelnosti v mikroregijah Bonyhad, Dombovar, Paks and Szekszard je približno taka, kot je povprečje za celo državo. Na trg delovne sile v jugozahodni Madžarski vplivajo zlasti mala in srednje velika podjetja. Večina njih je uspela prebroditi strukturne spremembe in privatizacijo, tako da so danes najpomembnejši delodajalec. Na prehodu tisočletja se je zaposlitvena struktura ustalila. Pomembno je, da se je povečal delež zaposlenih v predelovalni industriji zlasti na račun kvalificirane delovne sile. Ravno usposobljena delavna sila bo igrala pomembno vlogo v prihodnjem gospodarskem razvoju. Zato je treba okrepiti pomen šolanja in dvigniti ne samo njegovo kakovost, ampak ga tudi približati uporabniku. Kazalci izobraževanja namreč pokažejo, da manjša naselja, bolj oddaljena naselja in ciganska naselja dosegajo precej nižjo raven od povprečja v regiji. Izobraževanje pa je temelj, ki bo pripomogel k lažjemu vključevanju v Evropsko zvezo.
Glede zdravstvene oskrbe v regiji je osnovna ugotovitev, da jo je treba izboljšati. Kljub temu da naj bi vsako okrožje imelo družinskega zdravnika, pa je večina naselij brez njega. Boljši je položaj v srednje velikih naseljih, zlasti v mikroregijah Tolna in Somogy ter ob Balatonu, najslabši pa v mikroregijah Sasd, Szigetvar and Pecsvarad. V prihodnje bi bilo treba skrajšati pot do najbližjega zdravnika, in sicer z organizacijo potujočih ambulant, ki bi skrbele za strokovno zdravljene in preventivo.
Za celotno območje tega dela Podonavja je nujna smotrna razvojna politika, ki bo regijo pripeljala v gospodarski in prebivalstveni razcvet.