.^'IMAD O fü Q) £ u E o > O Ü) o fN o u 0) Ö cu _Q O Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3826 No. 10 / Vol. XVI / 2010 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Director: Boštjan Vasle, MSc Editor in Chief: Jure Brložnik, MA Slovenian Economic Mirror was prepared by: Matevž Hribernik, (International environment); Barbara Ferk, MSc, Slavica Jurančič, Janez Kušar, Jože Markič, PhD, Tina Nenadič, MSc, Jure Povšnar, Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič (Economic developments in Slovenia); Tomaž Kraigher, Mojca Lindič, MSc, Ana T. Selan, MSc (Labour market); Slavica Jurančič, Miha Trošt (Prices); Jože Markič, PhD (Balance of payments); Marjan Hafner (Financial markets); Jasna Kondža, Dragica Šuc, MSc (Public finance); Alenka Kajzer, PhD, (Short-time working arrangements as a measure in a time of the economic crisis in EU Member States); Mateja Kovač, MSc (Agricultural output in 2009) Editorial Board: Lidija Apohal Vučkovič, Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Lejla Fajič, Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, Boštjan Vasle, MSc Translator: Marija Kavčič Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Bibijana Cirman Naglič Print: Tiskarna lllllllllllll Circulation: 90 copies © The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the spotlight................................................................................................................................................................3 Current economic trends..............................................................................................................................................5 International environment...............................................................................................................................................7 Economic activity in Slovenia..........................................................................................................................................9 Labour market..................................................................................................................................................................16 Prices..................................................................................................................................................................................20 Balance of payments.......................................................................................................................................................22 Financial markets.............................................................................................................................................................23 Public finance....................................................................................................................................................................26 Boxes Box 1: Measures of the consolidation of public finances in EU countries...............................................................8 Box 2: Market shares........................................................................................................................................................10 Box 3: (In)solvency...........................................................................................................................................................14 Selected topics..............................................................................................................................................................29 Short-time working arrangements as a measure in a time of the economic crisis in EU Member States.......31 Agricultural output in 2009............................................................................................................................................33 Statistical appendix.....................................................................................................................................................35 On January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev.2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia, the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, which includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses, came into force on the mentioned date. In the Slovenian Economic Mirror, all analyses are based on the SKD 2008, except when the previous SKD 2002 classification is explicitly referred to. More general information about the introduction of the new classification is available on the SORS website http://www.stat.si/eng/ skd nace 2008.asp. All seasonally adjusted data in the Economic Mirror are calculations by IMAD. In the spotlight The IMF improved its forecasts for economic growth in 2010, while warning that the recovery is still uncertain due to certain risks. The IMF revised upwards its forecasts for economic growth for 2010, to 4.8%, while its forecast for 2011 is slightly lower than in July. It warns, similar to other institutions (the EC, the OECD) that the recovery will be slow and uncertain in advanced countries, pointing to numerous risks, particularly the negative impact on economic growth of fairly ambitious fiscal consolidation measures already announced in a number EU Member States. The IMF also highlights the persisting risks associated with global imbalances and financial stability. The values of short-term indicators of economic activity in the euro area continued to increase in August, while the sentiment indicators (ESI, PMI, ZeW, Ifo) have failed to convey a clear, unambiguous message regarding the continuation of the recovery in recent months. Short-term indicators of economic activity continued to improve in Slovenia in August, albeit at a slower pace than in the euro area. Exports of goods continued to strengthen in August and were more than one tenth higher in the first eight months of this year than in the same period of2009. Despite the pick-up in foreign demand, Slovenia's market share in the 15 main trading partners declined y-o-y in the first half of the year, largely owing to lower market shares in Germany and Croatia and much slower growth in France. After July's decline, the volume of production in manufacturing increased in August. In manufacturing, growth is still mainly propelled by mainly and highly export-oriented industries, with production growth in industries primarily oriented to the domestic market remaining lower. Construction activity also increased in August, after a longer period, but remains low. The construction sector continues to register the highest number of legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities for more than five consecutive days in a month (almost one quarter) and the greatest share of outstanding matured liabilities in the total amount of outstanding matured liabilities (it has increased to nearly one third since September 2009). In the first nine months of this year, the number of legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities, which is one of the indicators of insolvency, was otherwise one quarter higher than in the same period last year; the amount of outstanding matured liabilities was nearly three quarters higher. The slight decline in employment that had already marked the first half of the year continued in August; registered unemployment continues to increase, according to seasonally adjusted data, even though the actual number of unemployed persons declined in September. The number of employed persons fell by 0.2% in August, again most notably in manufacturing, being 2.9% lower y-o-y in the first eight months of 2010. The primary reasons for September's decline in registered unemployment to 97,908 persons was the regular autumn increase in employment, particularly in education at the beginning of the school year. The number of unemployed persons was 11% higher than in September last year. Seasonal factors also masked the increase in unemployment in the third quarter as a whole, when the actual number of unemployed persons declined, while the seasonally adjusted unemployment growth rate accelerated from 1.8% in the second quarter to 2.4%. The average wage rose in August after July's decline, this time in both sectors, and also saw stronger y-o-y growth. The average gross wage increased by 0.4% in nominal terms in August (0.4% in the private sector and 0.5% in the public sector). The average wage in the first eight months of the year was 4.1% higher in nominal terms than in the same period of last year, which was solely the result of wage rises in the private sector (5.5%), also due to the increase in the minimum wage. After increasing significantly in 2009 and2008, the average wage in the public sector dropped by 0.2% y-o-y in the first eight months of the year. Consumer prices rose by 0.1% in October and y-o-y inflation was at 1.9%. October's inflation was largely attributable to the price movements that are typical for this month of the year (higher prices of clothing and footwear and lower prices of holiday packages), while the moderate core inflation dynamics still reflect long-term factors of inflation related to economic activity. Y-o-y inflation in the euro area was at 1.9% (HICP). According to the consolidated balance of the MF, public finance revenues amounted to EUR 8.0 bn and public finance expenditure to EUR 9.5 bn in the first seven months of this year. The public finance deficit widened to EUR 1,490 m. Compared with the same period of the pre-crisis year 2008, public finance revenues dropped by 8.6% in the first seven months, while public finance expenditure rose by as much as 13.7%. All expenditures increased y-o-y in the first seven months of this year, except expenditure on wages and other personnel expenditures and payments into the EU budget, with interest payments recording the highest growth. A further tightening in the public finance situation is also indicated by September's data on payments of taxes and social security contributions, which declined once again after the increase in August. Only revenues from VAT, excise duties and social security contributions rose y-o-y in the first nine months, while the inflows from all other taxes declined. ■ö £ Q) E o £ O u Q) £ Q) 3 U International environment In the autumn, the IMF revised upwards its forecasts for economic growth from its expectations in July, while warning, similar to other institutions (the EC, the OECD), that the recovery will be slow and uncertain. The world economy, which is still mainly led by emerging and developing countries, is forecast to grow by 4.8% in 2010, slightly more than expected in July, while the forecast for 2011 has been revised slightly downwards (4.2%). Global trade, one of the key factors behind the recovery in the first half of this year, has already returned to its pre-crisis level. After a nearly 12% drop last year, it was 18.5% higher y-o-y in the first seven months of this year and is projected to expand by 11.4% in 2010 and 7% in 2011, according to the IMF. The IMF expects a much faster recovery in countries, which were less affected by the crisis and have strong economic ties with emerging and developing countries. Prospects for developing countries are, in general, better than for developed economies (with the exception of Germany). The short-term measures, which supported domestic demand in developed economies Figure 1: IMF forecast for world economic growth -World -Advanced countries-----Emerging countries 10 at the beginning of the crisis, are petering out and the countries are now focusing on fiscal consolidation. The IMF thus expects that economic growth in advanced economies will also be based on exports in the future. The austerity measures in advanced economies will, however, have a negative impact on developing countries, which will have to strengthen domestic demand in order to maintain economic growth in the face of lower exports. The speed of the adjustment of global imbalances and the fiscal consolidation in advanced countries represent the main risk to global economic growth in the next two years, according to the IMF. Significant risks are also still related to financial stability. The values of short-term indicators of economic activity in the euro area continue to grow. In August, the volume of industrial production in manufacturing increased by 1.1% and was 9.0% higher y-o-y. New orders in manufacturing increased notably in August, after declining in July. Turnover in retail trade remained at approximately the same level as in July, but the decline in construction activity, which was 7.9% lower y-o-y, continued. The Figure 2: Short-term indicators of economic activity in the euro area -Industrial production in manufacturing -New orders in manufacturing ---------Value of construction put in place ---------Total turnover in retail trade —•— Economic sentiment in EU Source: IMF. Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Table 1: Comparison of the forecasts for economic growth by international institutions and assumptions used in IMAD Autumn Forecast of Economic Trends 2010 2010 2011 CONS Aug 10 IMAD Sep 10 EC Sep 10 IMF Oct 10 CONS Oct 10 CONS Aug 10 IMAD Sep 10 IMF Oct 10 CONS Oct 10 EMU 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.4 DE 2.1 2.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.0 IT 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 AT 1.2 1.2 N/A. 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 FR 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.5 UK 1.5 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 USA 2.9 2.9 N/A. 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.3 2.4 Source: Consensus Forecasts (August 2010, October 2010). EC Interim Forecast (September 2010). IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2010). IMAD Autumn Forecast of Economic Trends (September 2010). Box 1: Measures of the consolidation of public finances in EU countries After the massive stimulus measures to get the economy going in 2009, most EU Member States are planning to consolidate public finances this year and the next. Amid a pronounced deterioration of public finances, massive austerity and structural measures are being implemented in most EU countries as part of a comprehensive fiscal consolidation. Amounting to 0.8% of GDP in the pre-crisis year 2008, the public finance deficit in the EU is projected to account for 7.2% of GDP this year before decreasing to 6.5% of GDP in 2011, according to the spring forecasts by the EC. The fiscal consolidation measures announced by the governments so far will amount to more than EUR 290 bn in the EU in the next four years, i.e. 2.5% of GDP in 2009 (of which more than half in Germany, France and Italy alone). The countries are dealing with public finance problems in a similar way, but the projected pace of deficit reduction varies significantly. The measures involve a reduction or slowdown in growth of public sector wages and employment, changes in the area of pension and social security systems and higher taxes. On the side of revenues, numerous countries are planning to increase taxes. In addition to higher personal income taxes, a number of countries are considering raising VAT (Greece, Portugal, Romania). Some of the countries also want to link tax increases to achieving sustainable development goals. A new tax on CO2 emissions is thus going to be introduced in Ireland and an additional tax on nuclear fuel in Germany. Hungary adopted a tax on total assets of financial institutions, despite being criticised by international institutions. Most of the countries are planning rationalisation in the area of wages and employment and are seeking systemic changes to increase flexibility of public sector employment. The greatest cuts in public sector employment have been announced in the United Kingdom and France, with somewhat lower reductions also being planned in Spain and Germany. Most of the countries will freeze or reduce public sector wages. The most radical cut has been announced in Romania, where public administration wages are to be reduced by as much as 25%, while Hungary will reduce wages by 15%. In some countries, wages will also be affected by changed taxation of the highest public sector wages (higher progressivity, higher personal income tax in the highest tax brackets). Certain countries have also announced systemic public administration reforms, for example Italy, which is planning to abolish certain provincial governments and reduce funding to municipalities and cities in the coming years. Austerity measures also extend to social and pension transfers. Social transfers will be reduced in Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and in the United Kingdom, while the Netherlands is planning to reduce expenditure on health care. Several countries have announced pension reforms, which mainly involve an increase in retirement age. Italy has announced a delay in retirement by six months for those who will reach the retirement age in 2011, and Romania a 15% reduction of pensions. Table 2: Planned austerity measures by EU countries Country Measures France - Elimination of 97,000 jobs in the public sector by 2014 - Higher taxes - Pension reform (extension of the minimum retirement age from 60 to 62 years, and from 65 to 67 years for a full pension) Greece - Elimination of bonus payments for public sector workers, freeze on public sector wages for at least three years - Tax and excise duty rises (4 p.p. increase in VAT, to 23%) - Measures to crack down on tax evasion and corruption - Pension reform (increase in average retirement age from 61.4 to 63.5 years) Ireland - Cuts in public servants' wages by at least 5% - Higher taxes (tax on CO2 emissions) - Cuts in social transfers (such as child benefits) - The government has announced an additional increase in the cost of bailing out banks (to EUR 45 bn), which will widen the deficit to 62% of GDP Italy - Freeze on wage rises in the public sector and public sector hiring, freeze on employment in the public sector (replacing only one employee for every five who leave), progressive taxation of high earners in the public sector, delay in retirement by up to six months - Measures to crack down on tax evasion - Rationalisation of provincial governments and decrease in funding to cities and municipalities Latvia - Cuts in public servants' wages Hungary - 15% cuts in public servants' wages and measures to facilitate dismissal of public servants - New tax on fixed assets of financial institutions Germany - 10,000 fewer jobs in the public sector over four years - Higher taxes (on nuclear fuel) The Netherlands - Cuts in spending on public servants and health care Portugal - Cuts in public sector wages from 3.5% to 10% for all workers, 5% cut in the public sector wage bill - Higher personal income tax and taxes (2 p.p. increase in VAT, to 23%) - Freeze on state pensions, 25% reduction in social transfers - Decline in military spending Romania - 25% cuts in public sector wages, 15% pension cuts - Higher taxes (5.5 p.p. increase in VAT, to 24 %) Spain - 5% cuts in public sector wages, starting in June 2010, then freeze on growth by the end of 2011 - 15,000 fewer jobs in the public sector - Higher personal income tax - Lower social transfers United Kingdom - Cuts in public sector jobs - Reduction of social transfers and public spending, including cuts in public sector jobs - Massive budgets cuts in all ministries (by an average of 19%) - Acceleration of pension reform (increase in retirement age from 65 to 66 years by 2010) - Decline in military spending labour market situation remains tight. The unemployment rate in the euro area increased to 10.1% in September. The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI), published by the EC, increased also in October, while the values of some other sentiment indicators (PMI, Ifo, ZEW) continue to decline. Interbank interest rates rose in October. The value of the three-month EURIBOR increased by 12 basis points to 0.998%, while the value of the three-month USD LIBOR in the month as a whole remained at approximately the same level as in September, 0.289%. Key interest rates of the main central banks, which had not changed since May 2009, also remained the same in October. The euro appreciated against the US dollar again in October and after a longer period also against other main currencies. The average exchange rate of the euro strengthened by 6.4% (to USD 1.3898 to EUR 1) in October, already by as much as 13.8% from the lowest 2010 values recorded in June. The euro also appreciated against other main currencies. The value of the British pound sterling against the euro depreciated by 4.4% (to GDP 0.8764 to EUR 1), against the Japanese yen by 3.1% (to JPY 113.67 to EUR 1) and the Swiss franc by 2.8% (to CHF 1.3452 to EUR 1). The US dollar, in particular, was under pressure in October, losing value not only against the euro, but also against other main currencies, and falling to a 15-year low against the Japanese yen. Figure 3: Value of the EUR against major world currencies GBP JPY (right axis) 80 70 Prices of Brent crude oil increased significantly in October; September's increase in prices of non-energy commodities was more moderate. The average price of Brent crude was USD 83.79 a barrel in October, 7.1% higher than in September and 15.0% higher y-o-y. Expressed in EUR, prices of Brent crude oil remained at a similar level as in September (EUR 60.23 a barrel), but were 21.1% higher y-o-y. Non-energy commodity prices in dollars1 increased by 2.6% in September (prices in euros by 1.7%). Growth was largely underpinned by higher prices of industrial and agricultural commodities (3.7% and 3.8%, respectively). Food prices recorded somewhat slower growth (2.3%). Wheat prices rose significantly for the third consecutive month (10.4%) in September, reaching the highest level since October 2008. Economic activity in Slovenia Most of the key short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia continued to improve in August, though at a slower pace than in the euro area as a whole. Exports of goods and production volume in manufacturing increased, according to seasonally adjusted data, continuing the strengthening trend of the first half of the year. The value of construction put in place also rose, for the first time in a long period, but remained around one third below the average value of the pre-crisis year 2008. Real turnover in retail trade and in the sale of motor vehicles and nominal turnover in wholesale trade dropped once again in August, while nominal turnover in accommodation and food service activities maintained its moderate growth. Figure 4: Values of short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia -Merchandise exports (nom.) -Industrial production in manufact. ---------Value of construction put in place -Turnover in trade ---------Turnover in wholesale (nom.) - Turnover in hotels and restaurants (nom.) 105 f^ o o -D rN 90 85 80 75 70 65 C^ JJ ^^ C^ ^^ < Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Merchandise exports increased again in August, while imports remained practically unchanged in the last three months.2 According to seasonally adjusted data, exports rose by 1.8% and imports by 0.5% in nominal terms relative to July, and were 22.5% and 13.2% higher, respectively, than in August 2009. According to the available data for 1 Commodity prices in dollars are based on the commodity price index prepared monthly by the IMF and prices in euros on the non-energy commodity price index by the ECB. 2 According to the external trade statistics. 160 150 100 140 95 130 = 120 -c 110 100 90 Box 2: Market shares Slovenia's market share in the 15 main trading partners' declined y-o-y in the first half of this year, largely due to a deterioration of market shares on the German and Croatian markets. After Slovenia made up for more than half of the 2008 loss in the aggregate market share2 amid a significant shrinkage of international trade flows and a consequent drop in merchandise exports last year, its market share declined more notably in the first half of this year (from 0.579% in the first half of last year to 0.541%) when foreign demand picked up. This may indicate a loss in the competitiveness of Slovenia's economy, though it cannot be claimed with certainty based on data for only six months, as the movement of market shares reflects a number of factors, which are subject to pronounced fluctuations3 during the year. The deterioration mainly reflected a decline in Slovenia's market shares in Germany and Croatia, as well as in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia and Russia, amid a notable slowdown of market share growth in France, where growth had been extremely high last year. The decline of Slovenia's market share in Germany was, as in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Russia, a result of relatively more moderate growth4 of Slovenia's merchandise exports to the German market, while Slovenia's market share in Croatia dropped amid a further decline of exports to the Croatian market, similar to Slovakia.5 Looking at SITC sections, the y-o-y decline in the market share in the EU was mainly due to machinery and transport equipment, but also manufactured goods classified by material and miscellaneous manufactured articles. The decline in the market share of the former was, on one hand, a consequence of the decline in the market share of motor vehicles (after the abolition of measures to stimulate car purchases in certain countries of the EU), which recorded exceptionally high growth last year; this also greatly contributed to a more notable decline in the market share in Germany and its slower growth in France. On the other hand, the market share of electrical machinery and appliances shrank regardless of the fact that exports increased by one quarter. The market share of machinery specialised for particular industries also declined due to a drop in exports. The decline in the market share of manufactured goods classified by materia66 was impacted by non-ferrous metals, despite an increase in exports by more than one third, while the market share of miscellaneous manufactured articles7 fell due to the stagnation/decline of exports of furniture and clothing. Growth in the market share of chemical products continued this year, but nearly came to a halt due to the decline in the market share of medicinal and pharmaceutical products (0.7% growth). Figure 5: Slovenia's market shares in the 15 main trading partners 0.60 0.55 0.50 a a a Source: SORS, Eurostat, WIIW, U.S. Census Bureau; calculations by IMAD. Figure 6: Slovenia's market shares in selected trading partners in the first half of 2010 Market share (left axis) ♦Share in exports (right axis) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 ^ ........4.......4.......4........f- ■ .......4.......4.......4....... ♦ ^......^.......^......." ■■ Ii i ' 'H .......4.......4.......4 4.......i.......i.......1 |l 24 20 16 12 8 JZ 4 0 a -4 !Z -8 -12 -16 -20 -24 Source: SORS, Eurostat, WIIW, U.S. Census Bureau; calculations by IMAD. 1 In Germany, Italy, France, Austria, Croatia, the United Kingdom, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands, Russia and the US. 2 After declining by 2.4% in 2008, the aggregate market share of goods increased by 1.4% in 2009. 3 Fluctuations and structural changes of exports and imports, the base effect etc. 4 Compared with the average growth of exports in the first half of the year. 5 Due to a further drop in exports, Slovenia's market share also declined in Serbia and Macedonia, and amid modest growth in exports (1.3%) also in Bosnia and Herzegovina. 6 Section 6 according to SITC: leather manufactures, rubber manufactures, wood manufactures, paper and paperboard manufactures, textile yarn, fabrics, mineral manufactures, metals. 7 Section 8 according to SITC: prefabricated buildings, furniture, travel goods, clothing, footwear, scientific and controlling instruments, photographic apparatus. 0.45 The larger decline of Slovenia's market share in Germany in the first half of this year was mainly due to machinery and transport equipment. The decline of the market share of road vehicles, electrical machinery and appliances and machinery specialised for particular industries was much greater on the German market than in the EU as a whole. The more unfavourable movements on the German market were also due to the structure of exports. Machinery and transport equipment with market share declines account for a much greater share in the structure of exports to the German market than in the EU average, while the share of chemical products with market share rises is smaller than in the EU. Figure 7: Market shares in the EU - total and manufacturing industries 8 6 4 n o 0 -2 -4 -6 a a a Sources: SORS, Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Figure 8: Market shares in the EU by main SITC sections (with a share in exports exceeding 2%) 2009 Ust half of 2010 »Share in exports in EU, 2009 (right axis) I- 30 20 -20 Source: SORS, Eurostat; calculations by iMAD. the first seven months, medium-high and medium-low-technology industries make the greatest contribution to growth in Slovenia's merchandise exports, also because they account for the greatest share in total exports. Nominal y-o-y growth in exports thus mainly stemmed from higher exports of the manufacture of electrical appliances, motor vehicles, metals and chemicals and chemical products. In the first seven months, only exports of high-technology industries and goods3 other than manufactured goods exceeded the average level of the first seven months of 2008. On the side of imports, this year's high nominal y-o-y growth of intermediate goods imports stems from the increase in production volume in manufacturing; the growth of imports of consumer and investment goods, which largely reflect the movement of domestic consumption, is modest. The terms of merchandise trade have been deteriorating y-o-y since January 2010 due to higher prices of energy and commodities. In the first seven months, export prices were 0.8% and import prices 6.6% higher than in the same period last year while the terms of trade deteriorated by 5.4%.4 Figure 9: Merchandise exports according to technological intensity5 3 In 2009, manufactured goods accounted for 95.2% of total exports; exports of other goods include sectors A (agriculture and hunting, forestry and fishing), B (mining), D (electricity, gas and steam supply), E (water supply, sewerage, waste-management and remediation activities) and J (information and communication activities). 4 Based on the index of export producer prices on the foreign market 40 30 20 10 as is 0 (D -10 -20 -30 -40 iJan.-Jul. 09 / Jan.-Jul. 08 IJan.-Jul. 10 / Jan.-Jul. 09 33.9 High- Medium- Medium-low Low- Other technology- high- -technology- technology goods intensive technology- intensive -intensive industries intensive industries industries industries Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. and the index of import prices, which are used as a source of data in the national accounts statistics. 5 According to Eurostat's classification, high-technology manufacturing industries accounted for 13.2%, medium-high-technology industries for 45.0%, medium-low-technology industries for 19.2% and low-technology industries for 17.9% of total Slovenian merchandise exports in 2009. 10 10 0 Growth in services trade is still slower than growth in merchandise trade. After two months of growth, exports and imports of services dropped in nominal terms in August (-1.7% and -0.6%, respectively); at the y-o-y level, exports increased by 7.1% and imports by 7.0%. Trade in transport services is strongly related to the movement of merchandise trade, which is picking up. Exports of transport services were thus 16.0% and imports 11.4% higher y-o-y in August. Exports of travel services were 7.6% higher y-o-y in August, while spending on travel abroad again recorded modest growth (0.8%). After July's growth, exports of the group of other services dropped y-o-y in August, amid a further decline in exports of construction services, while exports of financial services, merchanting and various business, professional and technical services increased y-o-y. Imports of the group of other services strengthened significantly in August, mainly under the impact of imports of licences, patents and copyrights and various business, professional and technical services. Table 3: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia Figure 10: Trade in services -Exports of services 105 100 ^^ 95 - Imports of services ro SS90 85 80 fhi \ r ] \ r y K / V E5 E5 E5 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. After a one-month interruption, production volume in manufacturing continued to grow in August. Production volume strengthened by 5.3% in August (seasonally adjusted) and was 12.1% higher y-o-y, largely due to export-oriented industries (working-day adjusted). Production in mainly and highly export-oriented industries increased by around one fifth compared with the same month last year (in those primarily oriented to the domestic market by less than 5%). All high-technology industries that generate around 80% of revenues on foreign markets recorded further y-o-y production growth, which was highest in the manufacture of other machinery and equipment, also due to lower activity in August 2009. Low-technology industries, such as the rubber, metal and leather industries, which are also more oriented to exports, recorded stronger growth than in previous months. Despite the increase, which was largely in % 2009 VIII 10/ VII 10 VIII 10/ VIII 09 I-VIII 10/ I-VIII 09 Exports1 -18.4 -14.1 17.8 11.1 -goods -19.4 -18.9 22.2 13.1 -services -14.7 2.0 7.1 3.7 Imports1 -23.6 -13.6 11.8 11.3 -goods -25.7 -14.4 13.0 12.6 -services -10.2 -10.7 7.0 4.3 Industrial production -17.4 5.42 11.53 6.23 -manufacturing -18.7 5.32 12.43 6.93 Construction -value of construction put in place -21.0 4.62 -12.23 -16.93 Real turnover in retail trade -10.5 -2.92 0.43 -1.33 Hotels and restaurants -nominal turnover in hotels and restaurants -7.8 0.62 5.23 1.93 Sources: BS, SORS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1balance of payments statistics, ^seasonally adjusted, 3working-day adjusted data. recorded in industries which are more dependent on foreign demand, manufacturing production still lags behind the 2008 average, by around 15% (by around one tenth in the EU-27). Figure 11: Volume of industrial production manufacturing by industries6 in Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Capacityutilisationinmanufacturinghasbeenstrengthening since the second half of2009 but it is still below the pre-crisis level. Capacity utilisation increased to 79% in the last quarter of this year (82.4% in the last quarter). The increase 6 The industries are arranged by export orientation. The manufacture of coke and petroleum products is not covered, given its small share in the total activity. was mainly due to growing demand. The number of enterprises citing insufficient domestic or foreign demand as the main limiting factors to production dropped again, though insufficient demand remains the main limiting factor in manufacturing. Current data still indicate weak domestic demand, as in the first eight months of the year turnover was still lower than in the same time last year, while turnover from the foreign market had already increased by 13.1%. Stronger demand is also reflected in a declining share of enterprises with excess capacities, but more than half of the surveyed enterprises nevertheless anticipate further cuts in the number of employees in the last months of the year. Figure 12: Capacity utilisation and selected limiting factors in manufacturing -----Insufficient domestic demand -enterprises, in % -Insufficient foreign demand -enterprises, in % — Capacity utilisation, % (right axis) 70 60 30 20 10 100 95 80 75 70 a a Source: SORS. Construction activity increased slightly in August, but remained low. According to seasonally adjusted data, the value of construction put in place was 4.6% higher than in July. It was still 12.2% lower y-o-y, chiefly due to a more than 10% drop in activity at the end of last year, while this year it only declined by 1.5%. At the beginning of the year, the best figures were recorded by non-residential construction, in relative terms, but in the middle of the year, activity in non-residential construction declined. Civil engineering, on the other hand, recorded stronger activity, particularly in August. Activity in residential construction,7 which more than halved in two years, is still relatively low, despite the increase in August (23.8%). Activities that are important suppliers to the construction sector have improved their business results in recent months. The mining and quarrying activity, which generates most of the turnover on the domestic market from sales of intermediate goods for construction, recorded more than 7 In interpreting the figure on the value of residential construction put in place, it should be noted that it does not include smaller enterprises, which are mainly engaged in construction of residential buildings, by our estimates. 20% higher turnover y-o-y in the middle of the year, and in August, more than 70% higher turnover than in August 2009. Furthermore, turnover on the domestic market in the manufacture of non-metal mineral products, such as construction material, is falling at a slower pace than at the beginning of the year. Better (or less bad) results in these two activities suggest that the situation will also improve in construction (it already did, to a certain extent, in August). Figure 13: Value of construction put in place and turnover in mining and quarrying and in the manufacture of non-metal mineral products -Value of construction put in place -----Mining and quarrying, turnover on the domestic market -Mfr. of non-metallic mineral prod., turnover on the domestic market Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. In September, y-o-y growth in electricity production was twice as high as growth in consumption. Electricity production was 9.5% higher y-o-y. It increased by as much as 38.8% in thermal power plants, 4.9% in hydroelectric power plants, while being somewhat lower than in Figure 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 -n ii^ 600 500 400 300 14: Electricity production and consumption ^^ Output in thermal power plants ^^ Output in nuclear power plant (50%) ^^ Output in hydroelectric power plants -Electricity consumption Ji ^^ J? ^^ ^^ Source: ELES; calculations by IMAD. 50 90 40 85 0 65 0 Box 3: (In)solvency One of the indicators of insolvency is outstanding matured liabilities recorded for more than five consecutive days in a month, which are based on writs of execution and data on tax debt and represent only a small part of the insolvency problem. The records on legal entities with matured liabilities outstanding for more than five consecutive days in a month refer only to outstanding liabilities of legal entities (excluding sole proprietors) according to writs of execution and tax debt, while they do not include other outstanding liabilities (unpaid bills between creditors and debtors). According to these records, 5,378 legal entities had outstanding matured liabilities for more than five consecutive days in a month in an average daily amount of EUR 312 m in September 2010. Their number increased by as much as 18.4% and the average daily amount of their outstanding matured liabilities by as much as 72.0% compared with the previous September. The greatest contributions to the increase in the total number of these entities came from legal entities in the sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles (22.6%), manufacturing (16.4%) and construction (16.2%). The bulk of the increase in the total amount of outstanding matured liabilities came from legal entities in construction (43.3%), financial and insurance sectors (25.6%) and manufacturing (11.5%). In both September 2010 and September last year, the number of legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities was highest in the construction sector (nearly one quarter), which also recorded the highest average amount of outstanding matured liabilities (its share in the total amount increased from 25.1% to 32.7% since September last year). Figure 15: Legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities for more than five consecutive days in a month and average total amount of outstanding liabilities 5,500 Figure 16: Beginning of bankruptcy procedures against legal entities 5,000 4,500 4,000 I 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 I No. of legal entities (left axis) -Average total daily amount of outstanding liabilities (right axis) 360 320 80 a a a Source: AJPES. a a Source: AJPES. Table 4: Legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities for more than five consecutive days in a month, September 2010 Activity Number of legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities (whole number) Growth, in % Average daily amount of outstanding matured liabilities in EUR Growth, in % Average daily amount of outstanding matured liabilities per legal entity, in EUR Sep. 10/ Dec. 09 Sep. 10/ Sep. 09 I-IX 10/ I-IX 09 Sep. 10/ Dec. 09 Sep. 10/ Sep. 09 I-IX 10/ I-IX 09 Construction 1,185 -8.0 13.0 30.5 102,111,564 30.5 124.1 117.9 86,170 Financial and insurance activities 71 29.1 51.1 49.4 46,342,327 0.3 257.8 284.2 652,709 Other activities 1,292 0.5 14.4 20.9 43,329,747 27.7 55.2 37.4 33,537 Trade; maintenance and repair of motor vehicles 1,159 7.0 19.5 19.4 41,055,018 7.7 13.0 4.9 35,423 Manufiscturincj 7013 ^.9 24.0 26.8 36,944,866 27.7 68.2 108.0 52,182 P'rofessional, scientific anc] technicalactiviti^s 609 y3.4 27.y 24.2 24,783,975 19.1 -11.9 -6.9 40,696 Transportatioa an cC stoa^y^ 3541 3.5 19.6 37.0 17,426,484 65.5 103.3 142.6 49,227 Tcatial ^.■4 25.1 311,993,981 21.5 72.0 74.6 58,013 280 240 200 160 120 In the first nine months of this year, the number of bankruptcy procedures filed against legal entities increased by more than two thirds compared with the same period last year. Our estimations of long-term insolvency of legal entities are based on data on initiated insolvency procedures. In the first nine months of this year, 24 compulsory settlement procedures (16 more than in the first nine months of last year), and 315 bankruptcy procedures (127 more than in the first nine months of last year) were filed against over-indebted legal entities, most of which in the sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles (79), manufacturing (68), construction (47) and professional, scientific and technical activities (29). September 2009 in the nuclear power plant (-3.8%). The large y-o-y increase in electricity production in thermal power plants is a consequence of a low base due to the extensive renewal of the Šoštanjblock 4 in the same period of last year, which otherwise accounts for around one third of total electricity production in thermal power plants. Electricity consumption increased by 5.1% y-o-y. Direct consumers (metal industry) accounted for 37% of the increase, the pumped-storage power plant Avče, which was connected to the network this year, 32%, the distribution network 24%, while the rest is attributable to higher losses in the transmission network. Direct consumption increased by 17.3% and consumption from the distribution network by 1.4% y-o-y, though the latter was still below what was recorded in the same month in the three years before the crisis year 2009. Slovenia thus recorded net electricity exports amounting to 3.5% of electricity consumption in September, while in the first nine months, Slovenia was a net importer of electricity; net imports on average amounted to 4.6% of electricity consumption (with the Croatian part of nuclear power production excluded from the calculation). In the first half of 2010, the volume of road freight transport was already a few percents higher than in the comparable period in 2008, while rail freight transport remained below the pre-crisis levels. In the second quarter of this year, the volume of road freight transport and the volume of rail passenger transport increased by 10.7% and 33.9% y-o-y, respectively (both by nearly one fifth in the first quarter). This year's significantly higher y-o-y growth in rail freight Figure 17: Road and rail freight transport 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 (D -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -Road freight transport -Railway freight transport f . i 1..... j .......-V-*" V........... / 1.......... .....j..... / Iv / v/ transport is expected and is mainly due to last year's significantly greater decline compared with what was recorded for road freight transport (-24.2% compared with -9.2%). The volume of road freight transport was thus already 3.4% higher y-o-y in the first half of this year than in the same period of 2008, while the volume of rail freight transport was still 5.3% lower. The volume of harbour transport and the volume of maritime freight transport were 8.6% and 6.7% higher y-o-y, respectively, in the first eight months of 2010. The volume of air passenger transport increased by 1.8%, while airport passenger traffic declined by 3.9%; both were negatively impacted by runway renovation works at Ljubljana's airport and the ban on flights due to volcanic eruptions in Iceland in April this year. Road interurban and urban passenger transport services declined by 5.4% and 1.7%, respectively, while the volume of rail passenger transport in the first half of 2010 remained at a similar level as in the same period last year. According to August's data for distributive trade, turnover continues to grow in the sale of motor vehicles. Growth in turnover in retail trade has already been stagnating for several months, while growth in wholesale trade, which had risen in the first half of the year, came to a halt in the last two months. Real turnover in the sale and repair of motor vehicles has already been increasing since the second half of last year. Nominal turnover in wholesale trade declined significantly again in August (-2.1%), which interrupted in the last two months the gradual growth recorded since the beginning of the year. Turnover in retail trade, which had been fairly stable since mid-2009 (monthly swings excluded), fell in August (-2.9%). The volume of turnover in the sale of automotive fuels is the most volatile component of retail trade.8 It started to decline in 2009 as a result of a lower volume of road freight transport, as well as due to Slovenia's excise duty policy and higher fuel prices compared with the neighbouring countries. With renewed growth in the volume of road freight transport, the sale of automotive fuels started to increase at the end of last year. Turnover in the sale of food products, beverages and tobacco products has remained roughly at the 2005 average in 2010. Turnover in the sale of nonfood products has persisted at the level recorded in the second half of 2009 for several months, but with different dynamics of turnover by activities. Turnover in stores selling furniture, household appliances and construction material, which had peaked in February 2008, had thus declined steeply until the beginning of this year when it stabilised at an otherwise fairly low level. Turnover a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 8 In the retail sale of non-food products, food products and automotive fuels. in stores selling computer and telecommunication equipment also declined last year, albeit less drastically, but is increasing steadily this year. Turnover in medicinal and cosmetic products and turnover in stores selling clothing and footwear, on the other hand, did not decline even in the time of the greatest crisis. Figure '8:Turnover in trade sectors -Retail trade -----Automotive fuel -----Wholesale,retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcyc. -Wholesale 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 ^ 1 ...... ................................ .......................... * v 4'» fr -------—^ r ^ TS. -i..... * ....... i 1 1 i i Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Growth in nominal turnover in accommodation and food services, which had started at the end of last year, continued in August. Growth in August's turnover in accommodation and food service activities (0.6%, seasonally adjusted) was, by our estimate, largely related to a higher number of foreign tourists in Slovenia, as the number of their overnight stays increased by 1.6% y-o-y. Turnover in accommodation and food service activities was thus 4.6% higher y-o-y in August in nominal terms. Figure '9: Household consumption indicators Turnover in retail trade (left axis) No. of first car registrations by natural persons (left axis) -Net wage bill (left axis) -- Consumer confidence indicator, original value (right axis) Short-term indicators still indicate moderate household consumption. Certain indicators have improved slightly y-o-y, but largely as a result of last year's drops. The net wage bill paid out in September was slightly higher for the first time in a year (by 0.7% in real terms). Turnover in retail trade was again higher y-o-y in September. The consumer confidence indicator has been stagnating since July while the number of new car registrations has been lower y-o-y since May. The seasonally adjusted value of the sentiment indicator deteriorated slightly again in October. The deterioration reflects the decline in the seasonally adjusted value of the confidence indicator in services, while the values of this indicator improved slightly in manufacturing and retail trade. The consumer confidence indicator and the confidence indicator in construction, which are otherwise the lowest among the five sub-indices, remained unchanged in October. Figure 20: Business trends - Economic sentiment - Retail trade - Service act. ■ Manufacturing ■ Consumers Construction Labour market Employment continued to decline slightly also in August. The total number of employed persons declined by 1,920 (-0.2%, according to both original and seasonally adjusted data). The number of employed people fell (2,391), in particular, while the number of the self-employed rose (471). The number of sole proprietors and own-account workers increased, while the number of self-employed farmers declined. Broken down by activities, in August, the number of employed persons declined most notably in manufacturing (by 829). The total number of persons in employment was still 2.3% lower y-o-y. Table 5: Persons in formal employment by activity Number in 1,000 Y-o-y growth rates, % 2009 VIII 09 VII 10 VIII 10 2009/ 2008 VIII 10/ VII 10 VIII 10/ VIII 09 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 37.9 37.9 34.1 34.0 -4.5 -0.2 -10.3 B Mining and quarrying 3.3 3.3 3.0 3.0 -7.5 -0.6 -9.5 C Manufacturing 199.8 196.5 188.5 187.7 -10.1 -0.4 -4.5 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 7.9 8.0 8.0 8.0 2.9 -0.2 0.0 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.3 2.3 0.1 1.7 F Constrution 86.8 86.9 79.1 78.6 -1.3 -0.6 -9.6 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 114.6 114.0 111.6 111.5 -1.0 -0.1 -2.2 H Transportation and storage 49.8 49.4 47.9 47.8 -2.8 -0.1 -3.1 I Accommodation and food service activities 34.0 34.1 33.3 33.2 0.6 -0.1 -2.6 J Information and communication 22.5 22.4 22.5 22.5 2.8 0.0 0.3 K Financial and insurance activities 24.5 24.3 24.5 24.4 1.0 -0.3 0.5 L Real estate activities 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.7 -0.2 -1.6 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 44.8 45.1 47.1 47.1 4.6 0.0 4.5 N Administrative and support service activities 25.6 25.6 26.6 26.6 -1.7 0.2 4.1 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 51.5 51.7 52.2 52.1 1.1 -0.2 0.7 P Education 61.7 60.4 62.4 62.3 2.8 -0.3 3.0 Q Human health and social work activities 52.1 52.2 53.4 53.4 2.1 0.0 2.2 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.2 1.8 0.2 0.6 S Other service activities 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.5 3.7 -0.1 0.6 T Activities of households as employers, undiferentiated goods - and services -producing activities of households for own use 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 7.0 -1.7 -0.9 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 21:Persons in employment by activity -----Agriculture (A) -Manufacturing (C) -----Construction (F) -Market services (G-N) Public services (O-R) -----Other (B,D,E,S,T,U) cj 95 90 80 ---- r.....^ i ! -I- ..................i - -i - i- ■ i ' 1 ■?------------------- ...........'.......^^^ i --- 1 / / distributive trade and in maintenance and repair of motor vehicles. The number of new hires rose substantially in September, largely due to the seasonal impact of the autumn increase in employment in education (to 13,035, +3.1% y-o-y), but was nevertheless still 1.0% lower in the third quarter as a whole than in the same period last year. The number of persons hired declined most notably in construction. Figure 22: Vacancies and new hires -Total -----Private sector 1,800 1,700 1,600 ■ Public sector Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. In the third quarter, the number of vacancies was 9.5% higher y-o-y. There were 15,786 vacancies (+6.2% y-o-y) in September and 45,872 in the third quarter as a whole, most of which were for fixed-term jobs (82.3%). The highest number of vacancies was recorded for persons with secondary education and in manufacturing. In the third quarter, the number of vacancies increased most notably y-o-y in manufacturing, while it decreased the most in H 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 85 Registered unemployment continues to increase, according to seasonally adjusted data, while September's decline in the number of unemployed persons is a consequence of a favourable seasonal impact. At the end of September, 97,908 persons were registered as unemployed, which is 1,124 persons less than in August and 9,542 more than in September last year. Even though in September, the inflow into unemployment was higher than in the previous month (the number of first-time job-seekers increased, in particular, but also the inflow into unemployment due to job loss), the decline in unemployment resulted from a higher number of the unemployed who found work (6,771, which is 70.9% more than in August and 22.1% more than in September last year), and a higher number of unemployed persons who were deleted from the register for reasons other than employment (particularly transition to inactivity due to education). The high number of hires in September reflects the usual fixed-term hiring in autumn, particularly in the education sector due to the beginning of the school year. This seasonal movement thus masks the monthly increase in unemployment, which is reflected in seasonally adjusted data, according to which unemployment was 1.13% higher in September relative to August. Within the unemployed persons who found jobs in September, the number of those included in public works (where the number of participants is determined based on quotas announced in a public tender) increased significantly.9 The registered unemployment rate increased by 0.1 p.p. in August, to 10.6%. In the third quarter of 2010, the average number of registered unemployed persons remained at approximately the same level as in the previous quarter, but the unemployment structure is changing. In the third quarter as a whole, the number of unemployed persons was 186 persons lower than in the second, while the seasonally adjusted growth rate accelerated from 1.8% in the second quarter to 2.4%. The number of unemployed persons was 11.5% higher y-o-y (10,139 persons). The inflow of first-time job-seekers and the inflow into unemployment due to job loss increased compared with the previous quarter (by 14.7% and 11.2%, respectively), but remained around 8% lower y-o-y. At the same time, the number of unemployed persons who found work increased (20.5% compared with the previous quarter and 9.3% y-o-y), while the net outflow from unemployment for other reasons declined (by around 12%, both compared with the previous quarter and y-o-y). The number of unemployed persons with higher education continues to rise, as does the number of long-term unemployed persons and those aged over 50, while the number of unemployed persons with secondary and lower education, the number of the young and the number of those who have been unemployed for less than 9 Quotas are determined based on ssasissical data on the average unemployment rate and the share of unemployed persons by regional services of the Employment Service of Slovenia and with regard to Slovenia as a whole, the shares of target groups of unemployed persons and the regional approach to a faster reduction of regional disparities. Source: Changes in the Programme of Public Works for 2009 and 2010 for 2010. one year declined. The increase in the number of long-term unemployed persons is also reflected in the average duration of unemployment, which rose to 624 days in the third quarter of this year (21 more than in the second quarter and 13 more than in the third quarter of 2009) and was longest for unemployed women and unskilled persons. The number of unemployed women, which is otherwise still lower than the number of unemployed men, is still rising, while the number of men has started to decline. Figure 23: Registered unemployment by educational structure Registered unemployed (in '000, left axis) ---low education (right axis) - secondary education (right axis) - tertiary education (right axis) 105 100 95 90 c= 85 CD 80 1= 75 ^^ 70 65 60 55 50 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 O O Source: ESS; calculations by IMAD. Table 6: Labour market indicators v % 2009/ 2008 VIII 10/ VII 10 VIII 10/ VIII 09 I-VIII 10/ I-VIII 09 Labour force 0.2 -0.1 -0.9 -1.0 Persons in formal employment -2.4 -0.2 -2.3 -2.9 - Employed in in enterprises and orfanisaSions and by those self-employed -2.5 -0.3 -2.2 -2.9 Registered unemployed 36.6 0.6 12.4 19.7 Average nominal gross wage 3.4 0.4 5.1 4.1 - private sector 1.8 0.4 6.7 5.5 - public sector 6.5 0.5 0.5 -0.2 2009 VIII 09 VII 10 VIII 10 Rate of registered unymploymynS, in % 9.1 9.4 10.5 10.6 Average nominal gross wage (in EUR) 1,438.96 1,415.08 1,480.69 1,487.20 Private sector (in EUR) 1,338.77 1,310.16 1,392.58 1,398.14 Public sector (in EUR) 1,749.82 1,739.82 1,739.58 1,749.06 Table 7: Wages by activities Gross wage per employee, in EUR Growth rates, % 2009 VIII 2010 2009/ 2008 VIII 10/ VII 10 VIII 10/ VIII 09 I-VIII 10/ I-VIII 09 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 1.198,03 1.272,50 -0,2 -0,6 8,6 5,2 B Mining and quarrying 1.831,20 1.834,81 0,9 0,3 1,8 3,3 C Manufacturing 1.203,38 1.315,61 0,8 1,7 11,0 10,0 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 2.020,95 2.026,67 3,8 3,4 6,5 3,6 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 1.413,04 1.395,13 2,0 -0,8 2,9 2,7 F Constrution 1.160,16 1.224,55 1,0 0,2 6,5 4,3 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 1.277,51 1.307,65 1,9 -0,3 4,5 3,6 H Transportation and storage 1.393,16 1.394,85 0,7 -0,2 3,4 1,5 I Accommodation and food service activities 1.032,97 1.078,31 1,6 0,8 4,1 3,6 J Information and communication 2.038,65 2.053,45 1,4 0,1 4,3 2,2 K Financial and insurance activities 2.122,72 2.046,10 -0,7 -4,4 1,2 2,4 L Real estate activities 1.435,09 1.428,75 1,9 -1,4 3,1 3,9 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 1.737,98 1.769,07 2,1 1,6 3,9 2,0 N Administrative and support service activities 914,93 959,87 1,8 1,1 5,3 3,7 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 1.788,30 1.787,53 5,9 0,0 -0,1 -1,0 P Education 1.719,27 1.715,50 3,6 0,4 1,2 0,6 Q Human health and social work activities 1.752,78 1.751,88 12,0 1,0 0,2 -0,4 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 1.723,15 1.739,19 3,9 2,5 1,1 1,0 S Other service activities 1.340,92 1.394,13 1,3 -0,1 5,9 4,5 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. The average gross wage per employee increased in August after the decline in July (by 0.4% in nominal terms), while its y-o-y growth strengthened to 5.1%. In the first eight months, the total gross wage increased by 4.1% y-o-y, similar to last year (4.3%), but only due to wage growth in the private sector, while in the same period of last year, the bulk of growth was attributable to higher wages in the public sector. Figure 24: Gross wage per employee -Total -----Private sector 1,800 1,700 n^ 1,600 - Public sector 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 In the private sector, the average gross wage per employee increased by 0.4% in August and y-o-y growth accelerated again (6.7%). With negative contributions of overtime payments and the basic growth wage, August's increase in the gross wage in the private sector was solely a result of higher payments in arrears10. At the y-o-y level, growth also Figure 25: Breakdown of the monthly increase of the gross wage in the private sector ^^ Wage excluding overtime work and payments in arrears ^^m Overtime payments ^^m Payments in arrears -Wage growth, in % -Paid overtime hours (in '000) 8 7 6 ,h ^^ 5 4 3 ot 2 tu 1 tnCo 0 -1 -2 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 10 The greatest contribution to their growth came from real estate activities, information and communication activities, construction activities, professional activities, manufacturing and electricity, gas and steam supply. strengthened due to the distribution of working days, but despite a somewhat higher contribution of payments in arrears, the bulk of wage growth still came from the basic gross wage (5.9 p.p.), which rose significantly upon the increase in the minimum wage in March.11 In the first eight months, the gross wage in the public sector increased by 5.5%12 y-o-y (2.0% last year), being significantly impacted by outstanding wage rises in manufacturing (10.0%). The latter is related to several factors: the increase in the minimum wage, the strengthening industrial production volume and labour productivity, the impact of changes in employment structure and the low base effect. The average gross wage per employee in the public sector also rose in August (by 0.5%). It also strengthened by the same amount y-o-y. After July's decline in the gross wage in the public sector (despite the 0.65% adjustment), August's increase was expected.13 After high increases in 2008 and 2009, y-o-y growth is much slower this year due to a more restrictive government policy. The average gross wage in the public sector in the first eight months of the year is thus slightly lower than in the same period last year (-0.2%; 9.5% last year). Figure 26: Breakdown of the monthly increase in the public sector gross wage Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Prices Consumer prices rose by 0.1% in October, while year-on-year inflation totalled 1.9% (2.0% in September). In the first nine months of this year, prices increased by 1.5% in Slovenia (last year by 1.4%). Y-o-y inflation in the euro area was also 1.9% (HICP) in October, according to the preliminary data by Eurostat. Figure 27: Y-o-y and core inflation in Slovenia and in the euro area (HICP) -HICP -SI -HICP -EMU -----HICP excluding energy and non-processed food -SI -----HICP excluding energy and non-processed food -EMU 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 1= ^ä^' 2.5 2.0 ^1.5 ^^ 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 CO O^ o^ O^ o o o o Source: Eurostat. Consumer prices increased by 1.6%14 in the first nine months of this year, mainly due to higher prices of goods. Prices of goods increased by 2.2% in this period, mainly due to higher prices of energy (1.3 p.p.), especially liquid fuels for transport and heating due to oil price rises and higher excise duties (around 0.6 p.p.). Growth in prices of non-processed food, particularly fresh fruit, and prices of processed food, alcohol and tobacco contributed 0.8 p.p. to inflation, approximately one half of which resulted from higher excise duties on alcohol and tobacco. Prices of non-energy industrial good, which account for roughly 30% of the harmonised index of consumer prices, dropped by 2.0% in this period, lowering inflation by 0.6 p.p. The movement of prices of these goods is most notably affected by prices of durable goods, mainly the declining prices of motor vehicles. In the first nine months of the year, prices of services increased much less (0.4%) than in the same period last year (2.6%), which is largely attributable to the introduction of subsidised meals in primary schools in September. 11 The contributions of overtime payments to wage growth are modest this year, as the volume of paid overtime hours remains much lower than before the crisis, even though it strengthened somewhat relative to last year. 12 Growth remains highest in the industry group (B-E; 9.3%) and lowest in business services (J-N, S, 2.3%). 13 The gross wage increased most notably in arts, entertainment and recreation (2.5%), followed by health and social work (1.0%) and education (0.4%), while it stagnated in public administration (0.0%). Amid the fluctuation of y-o-y inflation, which mainly reflects oil price swings and tax impacts, core inflation remains low. The movement of various core inflation measures (the price index excluding the prices of non-processed food and energy, weighted median and optimum trimmed mean) is thus consistent with weak economic activity. In 14 Measured by the HICP. Table 8: Breakdown of HICP into sub-groups - the first nine months of 2010 Evro area Slovenia Cum. % Weight % Contribution in p.p. Cum % Weight % Contribution in p.p. Total HICP 1.1 100.0 1.1 1.5 100.0 1.5 Goods 1.4 58.0 0.8 2.2 66.2 1.5 Processed food, alcohol and tobacco 0.8 11.9 0.1 3.7 14.8 0.5 Non-processed food 1.9 7.3 0.1 4.7 6.9 0.3 Non-energy industrial goods -0.2 29.3 -0.1 -2.0 30.7 -0.6 Durables 0.4 9.5 0.0 -3.6 11.5 -0.4 Non-durables 0.7 8.3 0.1 0.2 8.8 0.0 Semi-durables -0.8 11.5 -0.1 -0.9 10.3 -0.1 Energy 7.0 9.6 0.7 9.1 13.9 1.3 Electricity for households 2.0 2.4 0.0 5.9 2.6 0.2 Natural gas 7.0 1.5 0.1 16.2 0.8 0.1 Liquid fuels for heating 16.0 0.8 0.1 20.4 1.5 0.3 Solid fuels 0.3 0.1 0.0 -4.0 1.0 0.0 District heating -3.1 0.5 0.0 14.6 0.8 0.1 Fuels and lubricants 9.2 4.2 0.4 8.5 7.2 0.6 Services 0.8 42.0 0.3 0.4 33.8 0.1 Services - dwellings 1.3 10.2 0.1 4.7 2.7 0.1 Services - transport 1.4 6.6 0.1 1.5 5.2 0.1 Services - communications -0.4 3.3 0.0 2.4 3.4 0.1 Services - recreation, repairs, personal care 0.1 14.9 0.0 -1.9 14.3 -0.3 Services - other services 1.1 7.1 0.1 1.8 8.1 0.1 HICP excluding energy and non-processed food 0.3 83.1 0.2 -0.1 79.3 -0.1 Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Note: ECB classification September, y-o-y inflation excluding non-processed food and energy amounted to 0.2%15 in Slovenia and 1.0% in the euro area. The difference between core inflation in Slovenia and in the entire euro area also reflects the difference in the speed of economic recovery. Y-o-y growth in producer prices on the domestic market has been hovering just below 3% in recent months. It was 2.8% in September, with its dynamics and level still being mainly impacted by y-o-y price growth in the manufacture of metals and metal products, which, in line with movements of metal prices in international markets, slowed to 12% in September from just over 16% in May this year. Data on import prices of metals and metal products indicate a further moderation of growth. Price movements in other manufacturing industries remain highly heterogeneous; relatively high y-o-y growth rates are recorded in the manufacture of textiles and clothing, chemicals and pharmaceutical products, as well as in water collection, treatment and supply. Under the impact of the increase in relative consumerprices,16 price competitiveness continued to improve at a moderate pace y-o-y in August. After the one-month increase in Figure 28: Industrial producer prices 15 Y-o-y growth rates of core inflation measures in Slovenia moved between 0.2% and 1.1% in September. 16 In Slovenia, compared with its trading partners. -PPI (domestic market) -----Mfr. of basic metals, fabricated metal prod., exc. mach. and equip. ----Mfr. of food products; beverages and tobacco products ---------Mfr. of chemicals and chemical prod., and basic pharm. products "Ts"— Manufacture of furniture, and other manufacturing 15 12 9 6 ,h ^ 3 or 0 -3 Source: SORS. July, the nominal effective exchange rate dropped once again in August, amid a slower appreciation of the euro against the US dollar, while the euro lost value against most other currencies of Slovenia's main trading partners, particularly against the PLN, CZK, JPY and GBP. Due to concurrent growth in relative consumer prices, the real effective exchange rate was at the July level in August, while its y-o-y decline slowed to 1.4%.17 Measured by relative producer prices in manufacturing, Slovenia's price competitiveness improved in August, both monthly and y-o-y. Figure 29: Nominal and real effective exchange rates Figure 30: Components of the current account balance Trade balance Services balance Factor incomes ^^Current transfers -Current account ■ Real, deflated by CPI - Real, deflated by PPI - Nominal effective exchange rate 114 112 110 108 o o 106 == 104 102 (S TJ £= 100 98 96 94 92 fO fC fC fC fC fC fC Source: ECB, SORS, OECD, Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Balance of payments The current account of the balance of payments recorded a modest surplus (EUR 4.7 m) in August and a deficit of EUR '09.5 m in the first eight months of the year. The y-o-y change in the balance of current transactions in August (a deficit of EUR 136.4 m in August last year) was mainly due to a lower deficit of merchandise trade and a positive balance of current transfers, while in the first eight months (a deficit of EUR 460.3 m in the same period of last year), it was mainly attributable to a lower deficit in the balance of factor incomes and current transfers. The surplus in goods and services trade declined in August; at the y-o-y level, the deficit turned into a surplus. The deficit of merchandise trade with the EU countries continued to decline and the surplus in trade with non-EU countries increased. In the first eight months of this year, the total deficit in merchandise trade climbed to EUR 398.6 m, which is roughly the same level as in the same period last year. The surplus in the services balance increased seasonally in August and was also higher y-o-y. The latter is largely a result of a higher trade surplus in travel services and trade surpluses in road transport and maritime transport services. The y-o-y widening of the trade deficit in the group of other services largely reflected a higher deficit in trade in licences, patents and copyrights, and 17 After the 1.6% drop in July and the 2.2% drop in June, the real effective exchange rate deflated by the relative CPI was 1% lower than a year earlier in the first eight months. Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. various professional and technical services, and a much lower surplus in trade in construction services. In the first eight months of this year, the services balance recorded a surplus of EUR 748.3 m, EUR 9.4 m less than in the same period of 2009. The deficit in the balance of factor incomes continues to narrow y-o-y due to net outflows of capital income, while the balance of current transfers was positive for the third month in a row. The main factor in the y-o-y decline in the deficit of capital income was lower net outflows from equity of direct investment, which are still estimates in the current balance of payments data. Total net interest payments to the rest of the world increased y-o-y in August, for the first time this year. Since January this year, interest payments from investment in securities have exceeded interest receipts from this source, as a consequence of bonds issued by the government and banks in 2009. With domestic commercial banks repaying loans and with interest rates in international capital markets remaining low, net interest payments on foreign loans have declined y-o-y for the entire year, though the decline eased somewhat in the last few months. The balance of current transfers ran a slight surplus once again in August, largely because Slovenia's net budgetary position again recorded a net surplus against the EU. Financial transactions (excluding international reserves) recorded a net capital inflow of EUR '9.1 m in August (a net outflow of EUR 92.3 m in August last year). The net capital inflow of the BS exceeded the net capital outflows of the private and government sectors. After reducing them in July, the BS increased its liabilities against the TARGET2 position again August (by EUR 331.2 m) to provide liquidity for domestic banks. The level of the net capital outflow of the private sector was chiefly influenced by flows from other investments, i.e. investments by domestic commercial banks and other sectors (short-term Table 9: Balance of payments I-VIII 10, EUR m Inflows Outflows Balance1 Balance, I-VIII 09 Current account 16,052.2 16,161.7 -109.5 -460.3 - Trade balance (FOB) 11,830.9 12,229.5 -398.6 -396.2 - Services 2.955.9 2,207.6 748.3 734.6 - Income 590.1 987.0 -396.8 -591.1 Current transfers 675.2 737.6 -62.4 -207.7 Capital and financial account 3,080.7 -2,665.0 415.7 -44.1 - Capital account 188.4 -153.0 35.4 31.7 - Capital transfers 187.4 -150.1 37.3 37.1 - Non-produced, non-financial assets 1.1 -2.9 -1.9 -5.5 - Financial account 2,892.2 -2,512.0 380.2 -75.7 - Direct investment 232.3 -68.5 163.8 -424.3 - Portfolio investment 2,228.9 -576.2 1,652.7 2,673.5 - Financial derivates -57.0 -0.5 -57.4 -7.7 - Other investment 488.0 -1,871.2 -1,383.2 -2,452.6 - Assets 328.4 -259.4 69.0 648.4 - Liabilities 159.6 -1,611.7 -1,452.1 -3,101.0 - Reserve assets 0.0 4.3 4.3 135.4 Net errors and omissions 0.0 -306.1 -306.1 504.4 Sources: BS. Note: 'a minus sign (-) in the balance indicates a surplus of imports over exports in the current account and a rise in assets in the capital and financial account and the central bank's international reserves.. household deposits), which placed currency and deposits into accounts abroad (in the amount of EUR 431.3 m). Net inflows of foreign direct investment were still modest. The net outflow of foreign investment in general government debt securities totalled EUR 46.8 m. Totalling EUR 11.2 bn at the end of August2010, net external debt increased by EUR 0.5 bn or 1.1 p.p. compared with the end of 2009, to 31.2% of estimated GDP. Gross external debt increased more than gross external claims. At the end of August, Slovenia's gross external debt totalled Figure 31: Financial transactions of the balance of payments by sector ^HBank of Slovenia Country ^^ Private sector -Net financial flow 500 E 0 cc 3 EUR 41.6 bn (116.3% of GDP), EUR 1.3 bn more than in December 2009. The increase was largely attributable to long-term general government borrowing based on bonds. Gross external claims amounted to EUR 30.4 bn at the end of August (85.0% of GDP), EUR 0.8 bn more than in December last year; short-term deposits increased, in particular, and that currency and deposits of other sectors (where enterprises prevail). Financial markets The lending activity in September (net flows of EUR 102.2 m) was the highest in the third quarter, but lower than in the first half of the year as a whole. Also in September, the greatest share came from household borrowing, despite a significant easing relative to August, while positive net flows were also recorded by enterprises and NFIs, which still have to cope with fairly tight liquidity conditions, as well as by the general government. In the first three quarters of the year, the net flow of domestic bank loans to domestic non-banking sectors exceeded EUR 1 bn and was almost one fifth higher than in the same period last year on account of increased household borrowing. In September, banks recorded net outflows of government and household deposits in the amount of just above EUR 220 m. The liabilities to the Eurosystem declined slightly more. Based on data from balance sheets of other monetary financial institutions, we estimate that in September, foreign sources (loans and deposits combined) recorded net inflows exceeding EUR 200 m, which is one of the highest values this year. 1000 Table 10: Financial market indicators Domestic bank loans to nonbanking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR bn Nominal loan growth, % 31. XII 09 30. IX 10 30. IX 10/ 31. VIII 10 30. IX 10/ 31. XII 09 30. IX 10/ 30. IX 09 Loans total 32,444.95 33,481.17 0.3 3.2 3.2 Enterprises and NFI 23,161.09 23,332.19 0.1 0.7 -0.2 Government 870.95 1,043.15 3.8 19.8 27.5 Households 8,412.91 9,105.83 0.5 8.2 10.6 Consumer credits 2,899.95 2,818.44 -0.1 -2.8 -2.7 Lending for house purchase 3,927.13 4,671.96 0.8 19.0 24.5 Other lending 1,585.84 1,615.43 0.5 1.9 2.1 Bank deposits total 14,313.07 14,687.67 -0.2 2.6 4.0 Overnight deposits 5,655.00 6,153.32 -0.3 8.8 9.5 Short-term deposits 5,116.28 4,551.63 -1.1 -11.0 -15.0 Long-term deposits 2,874.95 3,971.02 0.9 38.1 54.2 Deposits redeemable at notice 666.84 11.70 -10.7 -98.2 -97.9 Mutual funds 1,856.30 1,941.75 0.7 4.6 7.5 Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BS, SMA (Securities Market Agency); calculations by IMAD. Figure 32: Net flows and growth of domestic bank loans to domestic non-banking sectors Households (left axis) Enterprises & NFI (left axis) Government (left axis) -----Households (right axis) -Enterprises & NFI (right axis) -Total (right axis) 10 S -10 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. The lending activity also remains weak in the euro area. The volume of loans increased by 0.2% at the monthly level, while y-o-y growth remained at 2.5%, i.e. at the level of the previous month. As in Slovenia, households also account for the bulk of net borrowing in the euro area, while corporate and NFI borrowing exceeded last year's level in the first three quarters of the year, but was nevertheless still modest. Total net flows of loans in the euro area thus amounted to EUR 265.4 bn in that period, while in the same period of last year non-banking sectors repaid their loans in the amount of EUR 8.8 bn net. Household borrowing fluctuates significantly in Slovenia. Posting net flows of EUR 43.9 m, it lagged notably behind this year's average in September, which is largely attributable to significantly lower net borrowing in the form of housing loans, which totalled EUR 38.1 m, the lowest figure in the last year and a half. Despite the slowdown, housing loans remained by far the most important form of household borrowing and in the first nine months of the year, their net flows were twice as high as in the same period last year. Figure 33: Net flows of household loans by purpose 300 ■ Otherlending IConsumercredits I Lending for house purchase O Source: BS. After the sizeable net repayment of loans in August, enterprises and NFIs recorded a positive, albeit still modest, net flow in September (EUR 19.8 m). Enterprises raised loans again, while NFIs continued to repay loans taken out with domestic banks. Enterprises and NFIs thus borrowed a net EUR 171.1 m from domestic banks in the first three quarters of the year, nearly 30% less than in the same period last year. After repaying foreign loans in a 20 5 0 net amount for six consecutive months, enterprises and NFIs again recorded positive net inflows in August. These amounted to EUR 48.5 m, solely as a consequence of borrowing in the form of long-term loans, which were, at EUR 59.1 m, the highest since May 2009; enterprises and NFIs, on the other hand, continued to net repay short-term loans, albeit in a smaller amount. Enterprises and NFIs thus made net repayments of foreign loans in the amount of EUR 228.6 m in the first eight months, while they borrowed a similar amount in the same period last year. Despite foreign net borrowing in August, enterprises and NFIs together repaid EUR 77.3 m net to domestic and foreign banks in the first eight months of this year, while they had borrowed nearly EUR 550 m in the same period of last year. Figure 34: Net corporate and NFI borrowing abroad and differences in interest rates Loans (left axis) -Difference between domestic and foreign interest rates (right axis) Figure 35: Net bank borrowing abroad Deposits ■ Short-term ■ Long-term 200 150 100 c 50 (D 0 cc m -50 -100 -150 -200 _ o ^ ^ < ^ o < Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. 340 310 ■■■■■I 280 250 1= a 220 Ü -i 190 -f 160 -■I- 130 100 o The financing of the banking sector abroad remains fairly limited. In August, banks otherwise recorded net inflows in the amount of EUR 2.7 m as a result of somewhat higher inflows of foreign deposits, while loans (short-term and long-term) recorded a net outflow of EUR 81.6 m. In the first eight months of the year, banks thus net repaid EUR 1.1 bn of foreign deposits and loans, which is nearly 60% less than in the same period last year. The decline is attributable to lower net repayments of loans, while repayments of foreign deposits strengthened by more than 70% in the same period. The strong creation of additional impairments and provisions in the Slovenian banking system also continued in September. In September, banks created EUR 73.6 m of additional impairments and provisions, which is the second highest value this year since June (EUR 87.3 m). In the first three quarters of the year, banks already created almost EUR 450 m of additional impairments and provisions, just above 55% more than in the comparable period last year. Amid all unfavourable factors in the Source: BS. Slovenian credit market, interbank interest rates started to increase again over the last months, which may put additional pressure on borrowers and strengthen the deterioration of the quality of Slovenian banks' total assets. Figure 36: Creation of additional impairments and provisions in Slovenia's banking system H 80 60 40 20 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Household deposits (EUR 34.0 m) and government deposits recorded net outflows in September. Inflows of long-term household deposits, which recorded the lowest net inflows in the last twelve months (EUR 36.8 m), declined again. Total net inflows of household deposits amounted to EUR 374.6 m in the first three quarters of this year, down 13.4% from the same period last year. Government deposits recorded net outflows of EUR 186.7 m in September, which is the highest amount in 0 the last five months. The decline was almost entirely due to the outflow of short-term time deposits. Government deposits thus recorded net outflows of close to EUR 600 m in the first three quarters of this year (in the same period of last year, net inflows of EUR 2.6 bn). Figure 37: Net inflows of household and government deposits in banks and y-o-y change in stock Households (left axis) Government deposits (left axis) -Deposits, total (right axis) —♦— Households (right axis) -Government deposits (right axis) 200 160 120;^ 80 (D 40 0 ^^ -40 -80 -120 -160 o o o o Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Public finance In the first nine months of 2010, revenue from taxes and social security contributions18 dropped by 1.6% relative to the same period last year, with payments amounting to EUR 9.5 bn. After the increase in August (4.1%), payments declined once again in September (-2.7%). In the first nine months of the year, only revenues from value added tax (VAT), excise duties and social security contributions increased y-o-y, while revenues from all other taxes and contributions declined. Inflows of VAT rose by 3.4% in the first nine months. At the beginning of the year, VAT inflows shrank due to shorter deadlines for tax refunds, and the recorded growth was due to the effect of a very low base, as VAT inflows had dropped most notably due to lower economic activity in the comparable period of last year. Cumulative y-o-y growth in revenue from social security contributions (0.9%) has been strengthening, albeit very slowly, from month to month, largely as a result of low revenues in the first two months and higher revenues since March, which can be partly attributed to the increase in the minimum wage. Cumulative y-o-y growth in excise duties^'9 was 1.1% in the first nine months, which brought to an end a series of declines in the cumulative y-o-y growth of revenue from excise duties. Excise duties on beer, intermediate beverages and alcohol, tobacco and 18 Based on the Report on Payments of All Public Revenues, January-September 2010, Public Payments Administration. 19 The figure for excise duties is corrected for the timing of excise duty payments. tobacco products were raised in July, and excise duties on electricity in August. Tobacco and tobacco products and alcohol contributed the most to the increase in revenue from excise duties in the first nine months (3.4 p.p. and 0.5 p.p., respectively), while revenues from excise duties on energy reduced the cumulative growth in revenue from excise duties by 2.8 p.p. In the first nine months, the largest y-o-y decline was recorded for revenue from corporate income tax (-42.1%), which declined as a result of refunds based on tax assessments taking into account business results for 2009, tax relief and a lower tax rate. The new monthly prepayments are much lower than last year's: they have been determined according to business results for 2009, but tax payers are also able to request a reduction on the basis of deteriorated business performance in the current year and a 1 percentage point lower statutory tax rate (20.0%). Revenue from personal income tax declined by 3.8% y-o-y: revenue from tax on income from employment was slightly higher (0.6%), but there was a significant drop in revenues from other personal income tax sub-categories (-17.7%), particularly taxes on income from entrepreneurial profits and income from capital gains. In the first nine months, tax refunds based on final personal income tax assessments for 2009 were also much higher than last year. Figure 38: Taxes and social security contributions - Taxes on income and profit - Social security contributions 110 cu <š 100 ----Domestic taxes on goods and services ---------Other taxes -Total SE :> o E 90 80 70 60 50 /N r/V-.'-,--'---- r ___ / ^ // \ V—, \ \ \ \ / \ / \ / \ \ v \. y / \ Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. According to the consolidated balance20 of the MF, general government revenue totalled EUR 8.0 bn and general government expenditure EUR 9.5 bn in the first seven months of 2010. Revenue declined by 1.7% y-o-y (by 7.0% last year), while expenditure recorded 2.9% y-o-y growth (10.5% last year). The deficit climbed to EUR 1,490 bn in the first seven months of 2010. In terms of economic structure of expenditure, all categories of general government expenditure were up y-o-y in that period, except 20 The consolidated balance (according to the cash flow methodology) includes revenues and expenditures of the state and local government budgets, as well as the pension and health funds. expenditure on wages and other personnel expenditures (-0.3%) and payments into the EU budget (-4.6%). Interest payments recorded the highest growth (29.1%). Transfers to individuals and households were 4.7% higher y-o-y, or 6.7%, not including pensions. Expenditure on transfers to the unemployed grew most notably (37.9%), given the deteriorated situation on the labour market, but its growth has been slowing from month to month. Strong growth was also posted for expenditure on sickness benefits (11%) and social security transfers (9.3%). Cumulative y-o-y growth in expenditure on pensions had slowed towards the end of last year, but has been stable since February 2010. In the first seven months, expenditure on pensions was thus only 3.6% higher y-o-y. This period also recorded higher expenditures on subsidies (1.1%), goods Figure 39: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 1,400 1,350 " 1,300 ^ 1,250 ro !Z 'i^ 1,200 E 1,150 !E rs 1,100 C (D 1,050 cc 1,000 950 revenues i / r- -General government h- expenditures i 1 // ' / "1 r- \// ............... ............... ................ ............... .......... i .....1 r..............1 r- and services (0.9%) and capital expenditure and capital transfers (0.7%). The state budget deficit climbed to EUR 1,425 m in the first seven months. With expenditure increasing by 4.1%, the total balance of local government budgets also recorded a deficit in that period (EUR 44.9 m). The deficit of the health fund stood at EUR 24 m. The pension fund was roughly balanced, thanks to a transfer of EUR 910 m from the state budget (a 9.4% higher figure than the year before). Slovenia received EUR 55.4 bn from the EU budget, 46% more than in August, and its positive net budgetary position totalled EUR 20.6 bn. In September, the bulk of receipts came from funds for the implementation of the cohesion policy (EUR 31.7 bn, which is the greatest absorption under this programme in the first nine months of the year). The Figure 40: Planned and absorbed EU funds Common Agricultural Policy Cohesion policy Internal policies Other Pre-accession EUfunds Funds planned by the state budget for 2010 Funds planned by the state budget for 2009 Total funds received in 2010 (Jan-Sep) Total funds received in 2009 (Jan-Dec) 200 Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. Table 11: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 300 400 EUR million Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. 500 2009 2010 EUR m % of GDP Growth, % I-VII 10 EUR m VII 10/ VII 09 I-VII 10/ I-VII 09 Revenues - total 14,404.0 41.3 -6.1 7,970.2 -7.9 -1.7 - Tax revenues 12,955.3 37.1 -7.0 7,200.0 -14.0 -2.9 - Taxes on income and profit 2,805.1 8.0 -18.5 1,343.9 -60.9 -16.9 - Social security contributions 5,161.3 14.8 1.3 3,010.8 1.9 0.7 - Domestic taxes on goods and servises 4,660.1 13.4 -3.0 2,667.5 -0.2 1.1 - Receipts from the EU budget 596.5 1.7 63.3 287.2 76.2 1.3 Expenditure - total 16,365.4 46.9 6.0 9,460.5 4.3 2.9 - Wages and other personnel expenditure 3,912.3 11.2 9.3 2,288.9 -1.8 -0.3 - Purchases of goods and services 2,506.8 7.2 -0.8 1,384.9 -1.8 0.9 - Transfers to individuals and households 6,024.1 17.3 7.3 3,709.2 3.4 4.7 - Capital expenditure 1,293.3 3.7 3.3 513.3 23.6 2.7 - Capital transfers 495.2 1.4 8.1 162.9 12.8 -5.0 - Payment to the EU budget 439.3 1.3 2.7 249.2 84.2 -4.6 600 absorption from structural funds declined from EUR 25 m in August to EUR 17.6 m, and the absorption from funds for the implementation of the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies from EUR 10 m in August to EUR 5.4 m. In the first nine months, Slovenia received EUR 381.6 m from the EU budget, which accounts for 36.8% of funds envisaged in the supplementary budget for 2010. The greatest percentage of what had been planned was received for the implementation of the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies (63.4%), followed by the Structural Policy (28.5%), and the smallest for the implementation of the Cohesion Policy (22.7%), where the absorption tends to be highest in the last four months of the year. In the same period, Slovenia paid EUR 315.6 m into the EU budget (in August, EUR 34.8 m), which is 76.4% of all funds it is expected to pay this year. Slovenia's net budgetary position against the EU budget was thus positive in the first nine months (close to EUR 66 m). M %J a o ■o 01 u 31 0! Short-time working arrangements as a measure in a time of the economic crisis in EU Member States The Publicly financed short-time work schemes have been intensively used in a number of EU Member States during the crisis. They are primarily intended to prevent mass layoffs and the consequent losses in human capital. Several EU countries, where similar schemes have a longstanding tradition (Germany, for example), only modified them slightly during the crisis (France, for example), while in nine new EU Member States these schemes were introduced as a new short-term measure in response to the current crisis. Despite a similar basic purpose of the measure, there are significant differences across countries with regard to its implementation. The schemes can be implemented in the form of subsidies paid to the employer or employee from public resources or from a special fund that is co-financed by employers, or in the form of partial unemployment benefit. There are also significant differences in the level of wage compensation, as in some countries the subsidy is tied to an individual's earnings or the minimum wage, while in others it is based on the level of unemployment benefit. The duration of subsidies varies significantly as well, from 4 weeks in Belgium to 24 months in Austria and Germany. The schemes have been designed as a measure aimed at preserving jobs and increasing internal flexibility. In most of the EU countries, the concept of short-time work can be defined as a temporary reduction in working time intended to maintain an existing employer/employee relationship. Short-time work can involve a partial reduction from 1 hour per week to a temporary lay-off (in the case of closing down of certain business operations). As the adjustment of working time constitutes an important component of internal flexibility of the labour market, short-time work support increases internal flexibility on the labour market, particularly in countries with tight employment protection legislation. In the majority of countries, the transitory nature of economic difficulties encountered by a firm is the main condition for access to short-time working support. The survey of measures21 shows that the transitory (not seasonal) and unavoidable economic difficulties encountered by a firm are an outstanding condition for access to the subsidy for short-time work. In most of the EU countries, an agreement on short-time work between the employer and trade unions constitutes sufficient proof of the employer's economic difficulties, while in the Netherlands, employers also have to be able to demonstrate, through the provision of an audit certificate, a 30% fall in sales in two consecutive months. In certain countries, enterprises are not permitted to make any workers redundant for the duration of short-time work.22 The measures of shortening working time during the crisis differ significantly across the EU; in the following paragraph, we provide a short presentation of the Austrian and Slovenian schemes, which are similar in concept and hence comparable. Austria already had a short-time working scheme in place before the economic crisis and just made it more attractive for employers in the time of the crisis. In Austria, a short-time working arrangement has been in place since 1968 but has not been used extensively thus far.23 Before the current economic crisis, employers were able to apply for an allowance which partly compensated for the loss of income of the employee due to reduced working hours for a period of three months. In the case of a high proportion of employees older than 45 years, this period could be extended. In 2009, when Austria's GDP decreased by 3.9%, the duration of allowances was prolonged twice. In March 2009, it was extended from 3 to 6 months (to a maximum of 18 months if prolonged), with specific grants being introduced for training of the affected employees. In June 2009, the maximum duration was further extended to 24 months (effective for the 2010-2012 period). Before the crisis the working time could be reduced by up to 80%, while during the crisis the reduction was extended to between 10% and 90%. Employers and employees have to conclude an agreement on the reduction of working hours, which should be conditional on a decline in orders. Before applying for short-time working allowances, employers must notify the public employment service about economic difficulties lasting more than 3 months. In Austria, the agreement on the reduction of working hours between employers and employees has to define: the number of hours not worked, the time limit, the retention period, the number of involved workers and the compensation of workers during the short-time work. According to the Austrian model of short-time working allowances, the so-called retention period also has to be included in the agreement between employers and trade unions. The amount of the allowance is based on the level of unemployment benefit and corresponds to one eighth of the daily rate of unemployment benefit per working hour lost. It also depends on earnings and the affected worker's family status. An employee without children earning around EUR 2,000 per month is entitled to an allowance of EUR 7.32 per working hour lost. The allowance increases (by 15%) if the individual working shorter hours also participates in training programmes. The subsidy is paid by the public employment service to the employer, which has to pay to the employee the wage for the hours worked plus the allowance for short-time work. 21 See Arpaia, A., et al. (2010) "Short time working arrangements as response to cyclical fluctuation. European Economy" - Occasional papers 64/June 2010. 22 In France, for a period even twice as long as the period of participation in the scheme and receiving the subsidy. 23 See Mahringer, H(2010) "Short-term working arrangements in Austria: First experience with an old instrument during the Financial and Economic crisis 2009". Peer review "Employment measures to tackle the economic down turn: Short time working arrangements/partial activity". In Slovenia, two measures were passed in 2009 to preserve jobs. In January 2009, Slovenia adopted the Partial Subsidising of Full-Time Work Act, which introduces a subsidy for a working-time reduction by a maximum of eight hours and under which employers are eligible to a subsidy of EUR 60-120 per month per employee participating in the short-time working scheme (depending on the number of reduced hours). At the end of May 2009, the government also adopted the Partial Reimbursement of Payment Compensation Act, introducing a partial reimbursement of wage compensations to employees on forced leave ("on waiting" at home). An employer is able to place a maximum of 50% of its workers on temporary leave, but has to pay them compensation amounting to 85% of their average earnings in the last three months. The employer is refunded 50% of the affected employee's base wage by the state, up to the level of the maximum unemployment benefit (EUR 805 in 2009, EUR 1,003 after the Minimum Wage Act came into force in 2010). Workers on temporary leave have the right and obligation to devote 20% of the lost time to training, which has to be provided by the employer and is co-financed by the state (EUR 500 per employee). The employer is obliged to prepare a report on the effect of the crisis on business results, draft a programme to preserve and improve the quality of jobs and provide education and training for workers on forced leave. As the eligibility conditions in this Act were much tighter than in the Partial Subsidising of Full-Time Work Act and as the crisis did not deepen in the second half of last year, the interest in this measure declined.24 A similarity between the Slovenian and Austrian schemes mainly lies in the procedure for applying for the subsidy, but there is a significant difference in determining the subsidy level and the employer's obligations regarding the subsidy payment. According to both schemes, the employers facing transitory economic difficulties due to the crisis have to conclude an agreement on the reduction of working hours with trade unions, but in Slovenia fewer factors have to be agreed upon than in Austria (only the number of reduced hours). The level of the subsidy for shorter working hours in Slovenia is defined as a flat amount related to the level of the minimum wage at the time of introducing the measure (the subsidy for a working-time reduction by 8 hours is equivalent to around 20% of the minimum wage in 2009), while the subsidy in Austria amounts to one eighth of the daily unemployment benefit and depends on the level of income and family status (the number of dependent children) of the person participating in the scheme. In Austria, the employer has to pay to the employees (at least) the entire short-time working allowance they are entitled to, while in Slovenia, there is no stipulation regarding the intended purpose of this subsidy. The affected employees receive wage compensation amounting to 85% of their earnings, of which the state contributes 50% and the rest is paid by the employer. According to our estimations, more workers participate in the short-time working schemes in Slovenia than in Austria. Due to significant differences between the schemes and difficulties in obtaining comparable data, international comparisons may be problematic and inadequate. We nevertheless tried to estimate the number of persons participating in the short-time working schemes in both countries using data on subsidies paid in Slovenia and allowances paid in Austria. In Austria, the average reduction in working time during the crisis was 26%,25 but the relative number of people included in the scheme (the proportion in total employment) was smaller than in Slovenia.26ThehigherproportionofparticipantsinSlovenia may be linked to a greater decline in economic activity, a higher share of persons employed in manufacturing and greater rigidity of employment legislation than in Austria. However, an assessment of these and other factors would require a separate analysis. Figure 41: Proportion of employed persons (in total employment) participating in short-time working schemes in Slovenia and Austria27 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Austria Slovenia iH I Source: ESS, SORS, BMASK, Austrian statistics; calculations by IMAD. 24 For data on the number of subsidies paid under both acts see SEM, September 2010 (Box 2). 25 Mahringer (2010), ibidem. 26 Due to the lack of data, the comparison does not take into account the extent of the working-time reduction. 22 The proportion is calculated based on the number of persons participating in both job preservation schemes.. Agricultural output in 2009 The Even though staple food production is not the only reason for the relatively high subsidies to agriculture, it is one of the main goals of promoting the agricultural sector. The Common Agricultural Policy of the EU and therefore of Slovenia pursues various goals, such as preservation of rural settlement and protection of cultivated agricultural areas, but is primarily aimed at stimulating agricultural production to achieve the highest possible level of self-sufficiency in food. Slovenia's self-sufficiency in food is relatively low. Moreover, it does not even increase and is extremely uneven. Self-sufficiency in animal products is relatively high, while self-sufficiency in crops is much lower. Fairly neglected in the past, adequate self-sufficiency is becoming increasingly important in light of the expected global climate changes and the growing global population, not only to reduce dependence on imports, which would be of vital importance particularly in times of disrupted supply, but also in terms of shortening transport routes, preserving the environment and ensuring a higher quality of fresh food on the local market. The total volume of agricultural output, which had been on a declining trend in the last five-year period, also decreased in 2009. After a 1.3% fall in 2008, the volume of agricultural output declined to similar extent in 2009 (-1.2%), according to the economic accounts for agriculture, being already as much as 7.7% lower than in the weather-wise favourable year 2004. After both of them declined in 2008, crop production increased by 3.5% in 2009, while animal production declined by as much as 6.2%. Crop production was thus somewhat higher than in 2007, while animal production dropped to the lowest level in the last few years. The share of crop production in total agricultural production thus rose from 50.7% to 52.0%, while the share of animal production declined from 47.6% to 46.0%. The volume of agricultural services also decreased but their share is relatively modest. Figure 42: Growth in agricultural production volume in Slovenia, 2000-2009 Total -Crop production -Animal production C3 C3 c^ C^ C3 ca C3 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Tabela 12: Changes in agricultural output in 2000-2009 Structure in 2009,* in % Growth in production volume, in % 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Crop production 52,0 0,5 -11,6 29,6 -25,4 46,7 -2,5 -12,6 3,9 -1,8 3,5 Of which: Cereals 5,2 4,7 1,1 21,1 -33,9 42,7 -0,6 -13,7 8,8 8,0 -6,6 Industrial plants 2,4 -25,2 -17,7 28,4 -18,0 17,3 16,0 -1,4 -29,1 -7,0 13,7 Fodder plants 16,0 -16,1 -1,6 26,1 -29,3 49,8 11,2 -21,0 12,6 3,0 0,2 Vegetables and horticultural products 7,9 -10,3 -10,4 19,0 -20,5 59,6 2,6 -12,2 -15,5 12,3 9,5 Potatoes 1,8 3,9 -17,7 14,1 -34,6 50,6 -16,1 -20,1 28,0 -20,2 6,2 Fruit 8,7 26,4 -30,3 32,0 -21,4 35,8 -16,8 1,5 1,2 -10,8 0,1 Wine 10,1 32,3 -15,8 57,5 -19,0 51,1 -20,1 -9,4 8,9 -11,9 10,9 Animal production 46,0 1,8 2,2 1,0 -0,7 -3,3 -0,6 -2,0 4,3 -1,0 -6,2 Of which: Animals 28,1 0,9 3,4 -2,1 2,8 -3,9 -1,7 -2,6 3,4 -1,4 -9,3 Cattle 12,3 4,0 -1,7 -2,5 1,8 -3,3 -2,3 -4,7 4,2 1,2 -11,5 Pigs 6,1 -7,6 9,4 1,6 1,9 -2,9 -6,8 4,9 -6,4 -6,6 -20,2 Poultry 8,4 2,7 8,2 -9,0 6,3 -6,9 4,1 -9,4 19,6 0,4 2,6 Animal products 17,9 3,4 0,4 6,2 -5,6 -2,4 1,1 -1,1 5,6 -0,3 -1,9 Milk 14,1 2,1 0,6 7,7 -3,7 -2,9 1,8 -2,5 3,8 -1,9 -1,7 Eggs 2,8 -0,1 -4,1 -5,9 -18,6 -9,3 -2,7 5,9 23,8 12,3 -0,4 Total agricultural goods output 98,1 1,2 -4,3 13,6 -13,1 19,5 -1,6 -7,5 4,1 -1,4 -1,2 Agricultural services 1,9 -11,7 -3,5 0,0 0,0 3,4 8,8 0,0 -14,0 4,8 -4,1 Total agricultural output 100,0 1,0 -4,3 13,4 -12,9 19,2 -1,5 -7,3 3,7 -1,3 -1,2 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Note: ^Structure of the value of agricultural production at basic prices, which include subsidies on products. 90 80 70 Slovenian Economic Mirror, October 2010 Selected Topics Crop production decreased in the cereal sector only, while in animal production, pig and cattle breeding recorded a significant decline. The yield of cereals diminished due to fewer areas sown and a lower yield of produce per unit area. Rainy weather conditions during ripening had a deteriorating effect on both the quantity and quality of grain. A particularly positive sign is a high yield of vegetables, even if it was not due to an increase in the area sown but to a better harvest. Namely, Slovenia's self-sufficiency in vegetables is very low and is even deteriorating (amounting to a mere 36% in 2008), despite increasing demand and consequently higher prices. Within animal production, pig meat production continued to decline and recorded an exceptionally large drop last year (-20.2%). The decline was attributable to the persistent crisis in this sector, with purchase prices being relatively low while production costs increased. Amid lower domestic production, there was a significant increase in pig imports and a concurrent decline in pig exports. Last year, production volume also declined in cattle breeding, in the production of both meat and milk. Poultry meat production continued to increase, as did the production of sheep and goat meat. The volume of agricultural production declined last year and in the last five-year period also in the EU as a whole, though less than in Slovenia. After increasing by 3.2% in 2009, agricultural production in the EU-27 average declined by 0.6% last year. It dropped in both sectors, though less notably in crop production (-0.3%) than in animal production (-1.0%). Higher yields were recorded particularly for oil plants, sugar beet and fruits, while there was no increase in animal production. The volume of cattle production declined less than in Slovenia, while pig production (which decreased significantly in Slovenia) and poultry production (which grew in Slovenia) remained at similar levels as in 2008. However, growth in agricultural production varies significantly across countries. In Slovenia, agricultural production declined somewhat more than in other EU countries as a whole, but less than in Austria and Italy. Agricultural production in Hungary, which was exceptionally high in 2009 (nearly 28% growth), declined by one tenth last year. Slovenia also recorded a greater decline in agricultural production than other Member States as a whole in the period of the last five years. The difference was 5.9 p.p. (1.8% in the EU-27, 7.7% in Slovenia). As in other new Member States, agricultural production fluctuates significantly, being highly dependent on external factors. Agricultural production in older Member States is much more stable, which is also reflected in a more stable (and higher) income per unit of labour input. Figure 43: Growth in agricultural production volume in the EU-27 average, Slovenia and neighbouring Member States, 2004-2009 -Slovenia -Austria ---------Italy -----Hungary -----EU 27 90 ------ ----- ----- 1 / ž? ž? ž? ž? rN rN rN rN rN rN Source: Eurostat, SORS; calculations by I MAD. 110 95 85 80 X "O C o a a (U "5 u (U MAIN INDICATORS 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Autumn forecast 2010 forecast forecast forecast GDP (real growth rates, in %) 4.5 5.9 6.9 3.7 -8.1 0.9 2.5 3.1 GDP in EUR million (current prices and current yxchaagy rate) 28,750 31,055 34,568 37,305 35,384 35,792 37,227 39,033 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices and current yxchaagy rate) 14,369 15,467 17,123 18,450 17,331 17,575 18,240 19,087 GDP per capita (PPS)1 19,700 20,700 22,100 22,800 20,300 GDP per capita (PPS EU27=100)' 87 88 89 91 86 Gross national income (current prices and current fiksni yxchaagy rate) 28,506 30,682 33,834 36,289 34,704 35,256 36,552 38,223 Gross national disposable income (current prices and current fiksni yxchaagy rate) 28,362 30,467 33,607 35,914 34,448 35,220 36,525 38,183 Rate of registered unemplovment 10.2 9.4 7.7 6.7 9.1 10.7 11.0 10.6 Standardised rate of unemploxment (ILO) 6.5 6.0 4.9 4.4 5.9 7.2 7.1 6.9 Labour productivity (GDP per ymployyy) 4.7 4.3 3.8 0.9 -6.4 3.2 2.9 3.0 Iaflatioa,2 year average 2.5 2.5 3.6 5.7 0.9 2.1 2.7 2.2 Iaflatioa,2 end of the year 2.3 2.8 5.6 2.1 1.8 2.8 2.2 2.3 INTERNATIONAL TRADE - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS Exports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 10.6 12.5 13.7 3.3 -17.7 7.0 5.9 7.0 Exports of goods 10.3 13.4 13.9 0.6 -18.1 8.7 5.9 7.2 Exports of services 12.0 8.6 13.2 16.2 -16.1 0.6 5.5 6.0 Imports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 6.6 12.2 16.7 3.8 -19.7 5.6 4.5 5.9 Imports of goods 6.8 12.7 16.2 3.1 -20.9 6.2 4.4 5.8 Imports of services 5.5 8.8 19.7 8.7 -12.3 2.8 5.6 6.6 Current account balance, in EUR million -498 -771 -1646 -2489 -526 -330 -386 -427 As a per cent share relative to GDP -1.7 -2.5 -4.8 -6.7 -1.5 -0.9 -1.0 -1.1 Gross external debt, in EUR million 20,496 24,067 34,752 38,997 40,008 41,6165- As a per cent share relative to GDP 71.3 77.5 100.5 104.5 113.1 Ratio of USD to EUR 1.244 1.254 1.371 1.471 1.393 1.310 1.294 1.294 DOMESTIC DEMAND - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) 2.6 2.9 6.7 2.9 -0.8 -0.5 1.0 2.0 As a % of GDP4 54.2 52.8 52.7 53.0 55.4 55.6 55.5 55.1 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) 3.4 4.0 0.7 6.2 3.0 0.7 -0.8 1.4 As a % of GDP4 19.0 18.8 17.3 18.1 20.3 20.4 19.7 19.5 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) 3.7 10.1 12.8 8.5 -21.6 -3.5 4.0 4.3 As a % of GDP4 25.5 26.5 27.7 28.8 23.9 23.0 23.3 23.7 Sources of data: SORS, BS, Eurostat-New Cronos (revised data, September 2010), estimate, calculations and forecasts by IMAD (Autumn Report, September 2010). Notes: 1Myasuryd in purchasing power standard; 2Consumyr price index; ^Balance of payments sSaSisSics (exports F.O.B., imports F.O.B.); real growth rates are adjusted for inter currency changes and changes in prices on foreign markets; ^Shares GDP are calculated for GDP in current prices at fixed yxchangy rate (EUR=239.64); ^end August 2010; PRODUCTION 2007 2008 2009 2008 2009 2010 2008 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 8 9 10 11 12 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D 7.2 2.5 -17.4 8.4 3.3 -7.7 -18.2 -24.6 -18.4 -7.1 -0.2 11.3 -2.0 9.3 0.5 -11.7 -13.2 B Mining and quarrying 5.5 5.5 -2.9 3.5 7.1 -1.2 -6.7 -13.7 6.1 4.8 -8.2 14.1 -19.2 14.4 -1.0 -14.7 18.8 C Manufacturing 8.5 2.6 -18.7 8.7 3.7 -8.4 -20.0 -25.9 -19.5 -7.9 0.3 12.2 -1.2 9.8 0.8 -12.5 -15.4 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 -11.1 2.1 -6.6 8.2 -1.1 4.5 -3.1 -8.6 -9.7 -5.5 -2.8 -0.4 -5.5 1.9 1.0 4.7 7.5 CONSTRUCTION,2 real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total 18.5 15.7 -21.0 17.0 15.7 4.2 -19.2 -19.0 -24.5 -20.5 -18.9 -16.8 8.5 22.4 15.1 -2.3 -3.6 Buildings 14.3 11.5 -22.6 7.3 11.5 -2.0 -20.8 -21.8 -27.4 -19.6 -7.4 -12.4 10.7 24.2 12.0 -11.5 -6.9 Civil engineering 21.9 18.9 -19.9 24.3 18.6 8.9 -17.6 -17.2 -22.6 -21.1 -29.3 -19.6 7.1 21.3 17.0 5.4 -0.6 TRANSPORT, tonne-km in m, y-o-y growth rates, % Tonne-km in road transport 13.4 18.4 -9.2 23.5 7.7 17.2 -12.7 -7.6 -12.3 -4.7 19.8 10.7 Tonne-km in rail transport 6.8 -2.3 -24.2 -2.9 2.9 -3.6 -24.1 -26.0 -30.7 -15.9 18.8 33.9 Distributive trades, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* 9.7 10.1 -13.0 13.1 10.5 2.3 -10.1 -15.5 -16.0 -10.0 -1.4 5.1 5.8 12.8 2.8 1.0 3.1 Real turnover in retail trade 6.1 12.2 -10.6 15.5 12.7 7.2 -5.5 -11.3 -13.8 -11.1 -4.7 0.6 10.8 13.8 7.3 7.0 7.1 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles 19.2 6.2 -21.7 9.6 5.6 -9.9 -24.0 -28.0 -23.6 -8.1 6.3 15.3 -7.4 10.6 -7.4 -12.5 -10.1 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade 16.1 17.1 -21.4 23.9 20.9 4.8 -16.4 -23.9 -26.7 -18.1 -7.8 3.6 11.2 28.0 11.6 2.1 0.5 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, %, new methodology from 2009 onwards Total, overnight stays 7.0 1.8 -3.4 1.0 1.8 0.6 -3.5 -4.6 -1.8 -5.3 -0.4 -2.4 3.2 -3.2 -2.1 -4.4 8.7 Domestic tourists, overnight stays 4.9 5.2 2.8 4.6 4.7 7.2 4.3 1.2 6.7 -4.0 1.3 -3.0 8.9 3.9 6.0 4.4 '1.0 Foreign tourists, overnight stays 8.4 -0.5 -8.0 -1.3 0.1 -4.8 -10.6 -8.6 -7.1 -6.4 -2.1 -2.0 -0.2 -6.8 -7.4 -11.9 6.5 Nominal turnover in hotels and restaurants 9.7 6.7 -7.8 8.3 7.0 3.9 -3.9 -8.2 -8.0 -11.0 0.0 1.5 62 7.6 8.5 4.1 -0.6 AGRICULTURE, y-o-y growth rates, % Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EUR m 492.2 529.9 449.3 125.6 134.1 152.3 105.4 105.9 109.0 129.0 94.6 106.7 42.2 47.4 49.0 45.3 58.1 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**) Sentiment indicator 13 3 -23 10 7 -16 -31 -28 -18 -14 -12 -9 7 5 -5 -18 -24 Confidence indicator - in manufacturing 11 -6 -24 2 -3 -27 -35 -27 -19 -13 -7 0 -3 -6 -20 -29 -33 - in construction 19 2 -50 9 3 -21 -43 -50 -54 -51 -57 -59 2 1 -7 -21 -35 - in services 29 26 -13 35 29 6 -18 -22 -11 -2 0 -4 33 25 18 7 -6 - in retail trade 27 22 -13 28 25 8 -17 -17 -9 -7 -6 11 26 23 26 1 -3 Consumer confidence indicator -11 -20 -30 -17 -16 -29 -39 -32 -23 -25 -25 -22 -19 -12 -18 -34 -35 Source of data: SORS. Notes: 'Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. *Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels; **Seasonally adjusted data. 2009 2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 -17.1 -21.5 -15.9 -29.8 -22.2 -21.6 -20.8 -17.5 -16.8 -19.6 -1.7 4.7 -8.7 -1.2 8.4 9.1 14.4 10.3 6.9 14.0 - - -6.9 -3.8 -9.2 -21.7 -10.2 -7.9 4.5 13.3 1.8 -4.3 32.4 -14.8 -7.2 -18.0 0.2 10.7 20.9 10.6 18.5 39.6 - - -18.9 -23.8 -17.3 -31.6 -23.6 -22.5 -22.1 -19.4 -17.2 -20.8 -2.6 5.2 -8.7 -0.5 9.2 10.3 15.2 11.2 7.6 15.0 -5.1 -1.3 -2.7 -9.5 -4.7 -11.3 -9.6 -7.3 -11.9 -5.6 -4.6 -6.3 -7.7 -2.0 1.9 -2.1 3.1 -2.2 -3.6 1.1 -27.0 -22.7 -9.7 -20.5 -20.8 -15.9 -20.8 -19.5 -32.0 -28.3 -18.3 -9.5 -11.4 -24.2 -19.8 -17.8 -15.5 -17.2 -17.4 -12.2 -32.7 -17.3 -12.7 -18.0 -23.6 -23.3 -23.3 -26.8 -31.4 -28.2 -20.0 -7.3 -6.6 -10.2 -5.5 -13.7 -7.5 -15.8 -11.2 -15.0 - - -20.3 -27.5 -7.3 -22.0 -19.1 -10.7 -19.4 -14.1 -32.3 -28.4 -17.2 -11.3 -15.8 -38.5 -30.8 -20.6 -20.2 -18.0 -20.9 -10.3 - - -6.2 -15.5 -8.6 -16.7 -17.1 -12.6 -14.8 -15.1 -18.2 -13.0 -11.1 -5.9 -4.8 -3.7 4.2 3.3 4.4 7.5 2.6 5.2 2.3 -13.3 -5.2 -9.3 -14.9 -9.5 -11.5 -13.3 -16.7 -12.9 -13.5 -7.0 -8.4 -5.2 -0.5 -1.3 -0.7 3.8 2.2 1.4 2.4 - -27.6 -24.5 -20.4 -34.7 -25.7 -23.1 -25.6 -20.6 -24.6 -16.0 -7.2 -1.2 5.2 -0.4 14.1 14.4 15.9 15.5 3.5 15.5 12.6 - -16.9 -19.2 -13.2 -24.9 -25.3 -21.2 -27.5 -24.8 -27.6 -23.4 -19.0 -11.1 -10.8 -13.0 -0.8 -3.3 4.7 10.7 2.9 7.7 - - 2.7 -5.7 -7.0 2.4 -11.9 -2.7 -3.4 0.8 -3.9 -2.9 -7.2 -6.5 1.0 -2.1 0.1 -1.7 -3.0 -2.5 -1.7 -3.6 0.0 - 7.7 -1.0 8.9 3.3 -2.8 2.9 8.9 6.8 2.1 1.9 -5.1 -9.2 3.5 -0.1 1.1 2.1 -7.2 -3.3 -9.0 -11.1 -7.0 - -0.7 -12.2 -19.3 1.7 -17.4 -6.7 -11.7 -3.0 -7.3 -6.5 -9.3 -3.7 -0.9 -5.2 -1.0 -4.6 -0.1 -1.8 4.3 1.6 4.0 -1.4 -6.7 -3.7 -6.1 -9.3 -9.2 -7.8 -5.9 -10.3 -11.2 -11.6 -10.3 0.6 -1.5 1.1 -1.4 2.4 3.6 5.7 4.6 32.9 32.6 39.9 36.3 35.5 34.1 35.9 33.8 39.2 43.4 38.4 47.2 29.7 28.6 36.4 35.5 36.0 35.1 37.4 36.2 - - -31 -29 -33 -34 -25 -24 -21 -19 -13 -13 -15 -13 -10 -11 -15 -12 -8 -6 -5 -7 -7 -8 -37 -33 -34 -32 -27 -22 -23 -20 -14 -15 -13 -12 -6 -8 -6 -2 -1 2 6 1 1 3 -39 -40 -49 -53 -46 -53 -49 -59 -55 -56 -47 -49 -56 -55 -61 -62 -57 -59 -60 -56 -51 -51 -14 -16 -24 -26 -21 -21 -14 -13 -7 1 -5 -1 6 3 -9 -6 -3 -2 -2 -4 -5 -8 -14 -16 -20 -16 -18 -18 -16 -6 -6 -7 -8 -6 -8 -6 -5 10 10 14 10 14 12 13 -43 -37 -37 -41 -30 -24 -26 -27 -17 -26 -24 -26 -26 -24 -26 -24 -22 -21 -27 -28 -26 -26 LABOUR MARKET 2007 2008 2009 2008 2009 2010 2008 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 8 9 10 11 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 925.3 942.5 944.5 940.9 942.2 949.2 945.9 945.6 942.6 943.9 935.8 937.8 940.5 944.6 950.7 950.3 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)' 854.0 879.3 858.2 879.4 881.7 885.1 869.0 861.0 854.3 848.4 836.3 839.2 879.8 885.3 888.1 886.9 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 40.4 39.7 37.9 39.9 39.2 38.9 37.8 38.0 37.9 37.8 31.9 34.6 39.2 39.2 38.9 38.9 In industry, construction 321.9 330.4 306.9 331.2 333.0 330.4 317.4 309.3 304.0 296.8 290.9 289.2 332.5 333.9 333.7 331.5 Of which: in manufacturing 223.6 222.4 199.8 224.0 222.3 219.1 209.5 201.4 196.7 191.7 190.0 189.4 222.2 222.2 221.3 219.8 in construction 78.4 87.9 86.8 87.1 90.5 91.1 87.8 87.6 86.9 84.8 80.9 79.6 90.2 91.6 92.2 91.5 In services 491.6 509.1 513.4 508.3 509.4 515.9 513.8 513.7 512.4 513.7 513.5 515.3 508.1 512.2 515.5 516.5 Of which: in public administration 50.3 51.0 51.5 51.0 51.1 51.0 51.1 51.5 51.7 51.6 51.8 52.3 51.0 51.2 51.1 51.1 in education, health-services, social work 108.8 111.1 113.8 111.0 110.1 112.4 113.2 114.1 113.3 114.7 115.9 116.8 109.4 111.4 112.0 112.5 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 766.0 789.9 767.4 790.3 792.7 795.3 779.7 770.8 762.9 756.1 750.1 751.0 790.9 796.1 798.5 797.0 In enterprises and organisations 696.1 717.6 699.4 718.0 719.8 722.0 709.9 701.9 695.5 690.5 687.2 688.7 718.2 722.6 724.6 723.4 By those self-employed 69.9 72.3 67.9 72.2 73.0 73.2 69.8 68.8 67.4 65.7 62.9 62.3 72.7 73.5 74.0 73.5 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 87.9 89.4 90.8 89.2 88.9 89.8 89.3 90.3 91.4 92.2 86.2 88.2 88.9 89.2 89.6 89.9 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 71.3 63.2 86.4 61.4 60.5 64.1 76.9 84.6 88.3 95.6 99.4 98.6 60.7 59.3 62.6 63.4 Female 39.1 33.4 42.4 32.8 32.1 33.0 38.4 41.6 43.2 46.4 47.0 46.8 32.3 31.1 32.7 32.6 By age: under 26 11.9 9.1 13.3 8.4 7.7 10.0 12.2 13.1 12.8 15.2 14.7 13.5 7.8 7.3 9.8 9.9 aged over 50 22.2 21.9 26.2 21.9 21.7 21.6 24.1 25.6 26.9 28.3 29.6 30.3 21.7 21.4 21.4 21.5 Unskilled 28.0 25.4 34.1 24.6 24.3 25.8 31.2 33.6 34.8 36.6 38.2 37.1 24.3 24.3 24.9 25.5 For more than 1 year 36.5 32.3 31.5 32.5 31.9 31.0 31.0 30.4 31.1 33.4 38.1 41.8 31.8 31.6 31.4 30.9 Those receiving benefits 16.6 14.4 27.4 13.6 13.9 15.1 22.8 27.4 28.6 30.8 31.6 29.3 13.9 13.7 14.1 14.4 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 7.7 6.7 9.1 6.5 6.4 6.8 8.1 8.9 9.4 10.1 10.6 10.5 6.5 6.3 6.6 6.7 Male 6.2 5.6 8.3 5.4 5.4 5.8 7.3 8.1 8.5 9.3 10.1 9.9 5.4 5.3 5.6 5.7 Female 9.6 8.1 10.2 7.9 7.8 7.9 9.2 10.0 10.4 11.1 11.3 11.3 7.8 7.5 7.9 7.9 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE 21.5 13.7 -5.2 4.2 1.9 1.9 -0.8 -0.1 -3.5 -0.8 -5.5 1.7 -0.9 4.1 6.1 -0.5 New unemployed first-job seekers 14.7 12.5 17.0 1.8 1.9 6.5 3.2 2.6 3.0 8.1 2.9 2.4 0.5 0.9 4.6 1.2 Redundancies 52.5 53.0 90.5 10.7 12.5 17.4 24.8 22.5 19.9 23.2 19.9 16.6 3.4 4.5 5.2 5.5 Registered unemployed who found employment 49.1 41.7 48.6 9.7 9.9 9.6 9.5 11.8 14.2 13.1 14.2 12.8 3.1 4.5 4.0 3.2 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 28.0 26.1 28.5 6.3 5.9 7.4 5.2 6.5 6.9 9.9 6.3 6.9 1.6 2.3 2.5 2.7 Increase in number of work permits for foreigners 10.0 13.2 -9.6 5.9 4.9 -1.2 -1.5 -1.8 -2.7 -3.6 -1.6 -1.0 2.2 1.1 1.2 -0.1 Retirements2 20.7 22.6 24.7 4.8 6.3 6.1 5.4 5.3 6.7 7.3 6.8 6.0 2.2 2.6 2.3 2.0 Others who found employment2 40.9 31.5 34.7 6.2 5.9 8.8 6.9 9.5 8.2 10.1 4.8 11.6 -0.2 6.6 4.6 2.7 REGISTERED VACANCIES3 20.2 20.0 13.4 21.1 21.5 15.9 13.4 13.4 14.0 13.0 12.6 14.8 20.1 24.7 19.7 15.7 For a fixed term, in % 76.5 74.5 78.1 74.0 76.5 74.7 74.9 77.9 80.8 78.6 78.9 81.2 76.8 76.0 74.9 75.6 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 60.2 81.1 86.6 79.0 86.3 90.5 91.5 90.2 84.9 79.7 77.1 75.7 86.7 88.6 90.3 90.4 As % of labour force 6.5 8.6 9.2 8.4 9.2 9.5 9.7 9.5 9.0 8.4 8.2 8.1 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.5 NEW JOBS 160.0 162.7 111.4 41.0 42.7 38.1 27.5 27.3 28.2 28.3 23.6 25.1 10.4 19.6 17.8 11.4 Sources of data: SORS, PDII, ESS. Notes: 'In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. Data for previous years dating back to January 2000 have also been calculated according to the new methodology. ^Estimated by IMAD, based on data by PDII and ESS; ^according to ESS. 2008 2009 2010 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 946.5 946.2 945.9 945.7 946.1 945.3 945.6 944.1 941.6 942.1 945.0 945.5 941.3 935.7 935.8 935.8 938.6 937.3 937.5 934.3 933.0 880.3 872.2 868.7 866.0 863.2 860.8 859.1 855.6 853.5 853.8 850.4 850.0 844.7 836.1 836.0 836.9 839.3 838.9 839.3 835.9 834.0 38.8 37.8 37.8 37.8 38.0 38.0 38.0 37.9 37.9 37.9 37.9 37.8 37.7 31.9 31.9 31.9 34.6 34.6 34.7 34.1 34.0 325.9 320.1 317.4 314.7 311.8 309.1 307.1 305.3 303.9 302.8 298.8 297.6 294.0 291.5 290.6 290.7 289.9 289.2 288.6 287.9 286.5 216.3 211.8 209.6 207.0 203.6 201.2 199.2 197.8 196.5 195.9 192.5 192.1 190.6 190.0 189.9 190.0 189.7 189.4 189.0 188.5 187.7 89.5 88.3 87.7 87.5 87.8 87.5 87.5 87.2 86.9 86.5 86.0 85.2 83.3 81.5 80.7 80.5 80.1 79.5 79.3 79.1 78.6 515.6 514.4 513.6 513.5 513.5 513.7 514.0 512.4 511.7 513.1 513.7 514.6 512.9 512.6 513.5 514.4 514.7 515.1 516.1 514.0 513.4 50.8 51.2 51.0 51.3 51.4 51.5 51.6 51.7 51.7 51.8 51.6 51.7 51.6 51.6 51.8 52.0 52.3 52.3 52.4 52.2 52.1 112.6 112.8 113.2 113.7 114.0 114.2 114.1 113.0 112.6 114.2 114.6 114.9 114.7 115.4 115.9 116.4 116.7 116.8 116.9 115.8 115.6 790.2 783.0 779.5 776.6 773.3 770.5 768.5 764.5 762.1 762.1 758.3 757.7 752.4 749.7 749.8 750.9 750.9 750.8 751.3 748.1 745.7 718.1 712.6 709.7 707.3 704.3 701.7 699.8 696.5 694.6 695.2 691.8 691.8 687.8 686.4 686.9 688.3 688.5 688.6 689.1 686.3 684.4 72.2 70.4 69.7 69.3 69.0 68.8 68.7 68.0 67.5 66.8 66.5 65.9 64.6 63.3 62.8 62.7 62.4 62.2 62.1 61.8 61.3 90.0 89.2 89.3 89.5 90.0 90.3 90.6 91.1 91.4 91.7 92.1 92.3 92.2 86.4 86.3 86.0 88.4 88.0 88.1 87.8 88.3 66.2 73.9 77.2 79.7 82.8 84.5 86.5 88.5 88.1 88.4 94.6 95.4 96.7 99.6 99.8 98.9 99.3 98.4 98.2 98.4 99.0 33.7 37.2 38.5 39.5 40.8 41.5 42.5 43.5 43.2 43.0 46.3 46.5 46.5 47.2 47.0 46.6 47.0 46.7 46.8 47.5 48.1 10.2 11.7 12.3 12.7 13.2 13.1 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.2 15.5 15.1 14.8 15.0 14.7 14.3 14.1 13.4 13.0 12.6 12.5 21.9 23.6 24.1 24.5 25.1 25.7 26.1 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.8 28.3 28.7 29.5 29.7 29.7 30.1 30.3 30.5 30.9 31.1 27.0 30.1 31.4 32.2 33.0 33.5 34.2 34.7 34.7 35.0 36.1 36.4 37.2 38.3 38.4 37.9 37.6 37.1 36.7 36.4 36.6 30.8 31.2 31.0 30.7 30.4 30.3 30.5 30.7 31.0 31.7 32.5 33.3 34.4 36.9 37.9 39.4 40.6 41.8 42.9 43.2 44.1 16.8 20.9 22.8 24.5 25.9 27.6 28.7 28.9 28.5 28.3 30.8 30.3 31.2 32.2 31.7 30.9 29.9 29.2 28.9 29.0 29.4 7.0 7.8 8.2 8.4 8.8 8.9 9.1 9.4 9.4 9.4 10.0 10.1 10.3 10.6 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 6.1 6.9 7.3 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.5 8.6 9.1 9.3 9.6 10.0 10.1 10.0 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.8 8.1 9.0 9.3 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.4 10.4 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.3 11.2 11.3 11.5 11.6 -3.8 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.3 -0.7 0.3 -1.5 -2.5 0.6 2.9 0.4 -4.1 -5.7 0.2 0.0 2.8 -1.3 0.2 -3.2 -1.3 0.8 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.5 5.9 1.3 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 6.6 10.4 6.9 7.5 8.2 7.4 7.0 7.3 5.5 7.2 8.5 7.9 6.8 8.6 5.4 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.4 6.1 5.7 2.4 3.2 2.7 3.6 3.7 4.3 3.9 4.0 4.6 5.5 4.4 4.8 3.9 5.0 4.0 5.1 3.9 4.7 4.2 4.8 4.0 2.2 0.7 1.9 2.5 2.4 2.2 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.8 3.8 3.6 2.5 1.7 2.0 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.8 -2.4 -0.1 0.2 -1.7 -0.5 -1.2 -0.1 -1.0 -1.5 -0.2 -1.9 -1.3 -0.4 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.6 -0.1 -0.6 0.1 1.8 2.3 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.4 2.4 2.9 2.9 2.3 2.1 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.7 2.1 1.4 1.2 1.7 4.0 3.7 3.1 2.7 1.7 2.1 4.4 5.1 5.7 -0.7 -2.2 3.6 3.4 6.2 2.6 2.8 -0.3 1.2 12.3 13.7 12.2 14.2 12.0 13.9 14.5 14.7 12.3 14.9 15.7 11.7 11.6 12.7 11.7 13.5 14.5 13.7 16.1 15.2 14.9 73.1 72.0 75.0 77.5 77.2 77.8 78.7 80.0 82.0 80.7 78.2 80.1 77.7 77.2 79.9 79.7 82.2 81.8 79.8 81.1 83.0 90.7 90.7 91.2 92.6 92.1 90.6 87.8 86.6 84.7 83.4 81.1 79.6 78.4 77.6 77.2 76.5 76.3 75.6 75.3 74.7 74.9 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.3 9.2 9.0 8.9 8.6 8.4 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.9 10.2 8.1 9.3 10.0 8.8 8.5 8.7 6.8 12.6 11.9 8.9 7.6 8.9 7.0 7.7 8.9 7.8 8.4 8.2 6.6 WAGES AND INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS 2007 2008 2009 2008 2009 2010 2008 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 5 6 7 8 9 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, y-o-y growth rates, % Activity - Total 5.9 8.3 3.4 8.6 9.9 7.1 5.5 4.6 2.3 1.7 3.7 4.3 7.6 8.8 8.7 9.8 11.2 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 8.3 9.1 -0.2 9.3 10.8 6.7 1.2 1.6 -0.5 -2.9 3.3 5.2 9.7 7.9 13.5 6.3 12.9 B Mining and quarrying 6.4 13.4 0.9 13.8 16.0 14.8 5.6 2.4 1.6 -4.9 3.4 4.7 17.0 12.5 17.3 10.0 20.7 C Manufacturing 7.0 7.5 0.8 9.7 9.3 3.4 0.0 -0.5 0.4 3.7 10.1 10.0 8.4 9.6 11.0 6.4 10.8 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 6.2 9.5 3.8 10.1 9.8 8.8 7.9 7.8 5.1 -3.2 4.7 2.4 9.6 7.8 15.3 8.3 6.2 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 7.1 7.8 2.0 9.1 9.0 5.2 4.2 3.2 1.2 0.1 2.7 3.0 6.8 9.8 10.5 5.5 11.3 F Constrution 6.6 7.5 1.0 9.6 9.1 4.3 1.2 1.0 1.6 0.9 2.9 5.8 7.5 9.5 10.0 6.0 11.3 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 7.6 7.7 1.9 9.0 8.8 6.1 4.4 2.3 1.2 0.1 2.6 4.1 8.0 8.9 9.1 7.0 10.2 H Transportation and storage 6.0 8.4 0.7 8.5 10.4 6.6 2.3 2.1 0.5 -1.4 1.1 1.2 7.0 10.2 7.8 13.1 10.2 I Accommodation and food service activities 5.3 8.3 1.6 9.6 10.0 4.9 3.4 1.7 0.6 1.0 2.8 4.2 10.3 8.9 10.3 9.0 10.7 J Information and communication 5.7 7.3 1.4 7.8 8.7 6.2 3.7 3.1 0.8 -1.6 1.0 2.5 6.1 8.3 7.9 8.1 10.3 K Financial and insurance activities 7.4 6.0 -0.7 8.8 8.2 0.0 2.0 -3.8 0.3 -0.5 1.2 3.2 6.4 8.5 7.1 6.3 11.4 L Real estate activities 7.0 6.0 1.9 8.6 5.3 3.6 1.6 0.0 1.8 4.5 2.6 5.3 8.3 7.5 4.7 4.6 6.7 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 7.0 8.4 2.1 8.6 9.1 6.4 4.0 3.3 1.5 0.0 1.6 1.8 7.9 9.2 9.9 7.3 10.3 N Administrative and support service activities 7.5 9.6 1.8 11.4 10.2 8.0 6.6 2.1 -0.2 -0.6 2.5 4.3 11.2 12.2 11.1 8.3 11.2 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 5.1 12.2 5.9 10.8 13.2 13.7 11.5 9.8 2.5 0.5 -1.9 -1.1 10.0 10.4 7.6 18.8 13.3 P Education 3.9 7.0 3.6 5.8 7.7 9.0 6.9 6.1 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.7 5.7 6.1 5.0 10.9 7.3 Q Human health and social work activities 3.1 12.0 12.0 4.3 16.8 21.0 21.4 22.6 5.5 1.4 -0.4 -1.0 3.8 6.0 4.6 24.5 21.5 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 3.6 5.3 3.9 5.8 8.3 5.1 7.0 5.7 2.2 0.9 0.7 1.4 6.9 6.6 4.1 11.3 9.4 S Other service activities 3.3 8.2 1.3 8.6 8.5 8.8 4.1 1.0 0.7 0.0 3.2 4.9 8.8 6.7 9.0 8.0 8.3 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate,1 nominal 0.8 0.5 0.4 1.1 0.4 -1.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 1.8 -0.3 -1.9 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 -0.1 Real (relative consumer prices) 2.3 2.8 0.7 4.2 2.6 -0.1 0.4 0.0 0.2 2.3 -0.3 -1.3 3.9 3.9 3.5 2.6 1.6 Real (relative producer prices)2 2.2 0.8 2.8 1.0 -0.2 1.1 3.0 3.4 3.7 1.4 -2.4 -3.3 0.9 0.0 -0.2 0.3 -0.6 USD/EUR 1.371 1.471 1.393 1.562 1.504 1.317 1.302 1.362 1.431 1.478 1.384 1.273 1.556 1.555 1.577 1.498 1.437 Sources of data: SORS, AP, BS, OECD Main Economic Indicators, calculations IMAD. Notes: 1Change of methodology: the calculation of domestic currency's effective exchange rate includes the currencies/prices of Slovenia's 17 trading partners (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Italy, France, Netherlands, Spain, Denmark, United Kingdom, Sweden, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, USA, Switzerland, Japan); weights are the shares of individual trading partners in Slovenian exports and imports of goods within manufacturing (5-8 SITC) in 2001-2003; exports are double weighted; a rise in the index value indicates an appreciation of domestic currency and vice versa. ^Producer prices in manufacturing activities 2008 2009 2010 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9.2 3.9 8.6 6.8 4.2 5.3 5.1 4.1 4.7 3.8 0.7 2.4 1.7 1.3 2.1 2.2 3.6 5.2 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.0 5.1 11.3 -0.1 10.2 1.1 -3.3 6.1 2.0 -1.8 4.7 -0.4 -0.3 -0.7 -5.5 -0.9 -2.5 1.1 3.0 5.7 5.6 4.3 5.6 7.1 8.6 39.0 -4.7 16.0 10.1 5.3 1.7 4.3 -5.9 9.4 2.3 6.2 -3.5 -20.3 16.1 -8.7 2.0 3.5 4.7 1.4 14.0 -0.8 0.8 1.8 6.7 -1.4 5.7 0.1 -0.5 0.4 -0.4 -1.3 0.1 0.1 -0.6 1.6 1.9 4.6 4.3 6.7 8.3 15.2 10.7 10.1 9.4 8.1 11.0 25.2 2.2 3.2 9.4 6.1 8.1 7.6 5.5 10.3 5.6 2.9 6.7 -10.4 -8.6 12.1 3.5 6.6 4.3 3.3 0.8 3.0 1.6 6.5 14.0 -1.0 4.8 4.4 3.6 4.6 3.5 1.0 5.2 1.6 1.2 0.9 -3.3 2.1 1.1 0.0 3.0 5.1 3.5 3.6 2.0 1.6 2.9 7.3 -1.0 7.2 1.7 -0.6 2.5 0.5 -0.9 3.4 2.9 0.6 1.4 -1.4 1.1 2.9 1.0 2.9 4.6 7.2 5.8 4.5 2.1 6.5 8.0 3.9 6.6 6.1 3.5 3.6 1.5 2.9 2.4 1.6 1.5 0.6 0.4 -0.8 0.6 0.3 2.4 5.2 4.2 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.5 7.1 7.5 5.2 3.9 2.4 0.6 2.9 2.2 1.1 2.0 -4.8 4.4 -1.0 -3.3 0.5 -1.5 1.8 3.2 1.5 1.6 0.5 1.8 3.4 7.5 2.0 5.4 3.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 0.4 1.3 1.4 0.6 -0.2 -0.3 3.2 0.0 2.2 1.8 4.4 3.7 4.2 4.6 4.0 4.1 7.8 5.5 5.4 6.9 1.8 2.5 3.4 2.5 3.4 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.7 -3.6 -1.6 0.0 1.6 1.5 2.3 3.1 2.1 2.9 4.3 1.2 -6.3 8.1 3.8 0.6 1.7 -4.2 -5.4 -1.6 2.0 0.5 -1.7 6.3 -1.8 -5.1 1.0 1.6 1.1 2.5 -0.6 7.6 5.0 1.2 4.5 1.5 5.0 2.9 1.4 0.6 1.3 -0.6 -0.5 1.9 1.4 2.0 4.2 5.3 4.0 1.8 3.3 2.7 3.7 3.9 8.4 4.1 3.1 9.3 1.8 8.8 3.1 4.3 4.7 4.6 2.2 3.3 2.0 1.1 1.3 0.4 0.6 -0.9 1.0 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.5 2.1 1.7 3.9 8.4 8.6 7.1 9.1 5.1 5.5 3.2 1.6 1.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -1.0 -1.8 1.1 -1.2 4.1 4.7 5.1 4.1 3.9 3.8 5.3 12.9 16.0 12.3 15.2 8.8 10.7 11.0 10.0 8.4 5.3 -0.3 2.6 1.1 -2.0 2.4 -1.1 -1.5 -3.0 -2.1 -0.6 -0.5 0.9 -0.1 8.0 9.4 9.6 9.3 4.2 7.3 6.6 6.0 5.7 2.9 -1.7 2.6 1.8 0.0 -0.1 0.5 0.5 -0.4 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.7 1.2 21.3 20.5 21.4 25.5 18.9 20.0 26.5 22.2 19.3 16.0 0.4 1.7 2.4 0.8 1.0 -1.6 1.2 -0.6 -2.3 -0.2 -0.4 0.7 0.2 10.7 -3.2 9.1 8.2 6.4 6.3 7.2 6.0 4.0 5.8 0.1 1.1 3.2 -0.5 -0.1 0.5 0.6 1.0 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.9 1.1 9.0 6.3 11.3 2.6 5.3 4.3 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.3 -0.4 -0.4 0.6 3.4 2.2 4.1 6.1 3.9 4.7 6.0 5.9 -1.3 -1.7 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.6 -0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.9 2.2 2.3 0.9 0.4 -0.3 -1.1 -1.1 -1.9 -2.7 -2.1 -2.3 0.3 -0.7 0.0 -0.1 0.5 0.8 -0.2 0.1 0.3 -0.4 0.2 0.9 2.1 3.3 1.5 0.5 -0.1 -1.1 -0.4 -1.4 -2.2 -1.6 -1.4 -0.6 0.8 3.2 2.8 2.8 3.5 2.9 3.2 4.0 4.2 3.1 3.8 3.8 1.6 -1.0 -1.9 -2.1 -3.2 -3.8 -2.9 -3.3 -2.9 -2.5 1.332 1.273 1.345 1.324 1.279 1.305 1.319 1.365 1.402 1.409 1.427 1.456 1.482 1.491 1.461 1.427 1.369 1.357 1.341 1.257 1.221 1.277 1.289 PRICES 2007 2008 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 7 8 9 10 11 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 3.6 5.7 0.9 6.1 3.3 1.8 0.7 -0.2 1.1 1.4 2.1 2.1 6.9 6.0 5.5 4.9 3.1 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 7.8 10.1 0.6 9.8 4.9 3.2 0.9 -0.7 -1.0 -1.4 0.7 2.6 12.2 10.1 7.2 5.3 5.6 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 6.5 3.2 6.7 0.7 2.1 3.0 7.2 8.5 7.9 7.1 6.5 7.3 -0.2 0.5 1.8 2.1 2.1 Clothing and footwear 2.1 4.4 -0.6 2.1 5.2 1.8 1.2 -2.2 -3.0 -5.0 -1.9 -0.6 0.8 1.7 3.7 6.1 4.6 Housing, water, electricity, gas 2.6 9.7 -0.3 11.5 5.3 1.7 -2.1 -3.5 3.0 8.3 11.3 12.0 13.6 10.4 10.5 9.0 4.8 Furnishings, household equipment 4.5 5.8 4.0 6.5 6.7 6.1 4.5 3.5 1.9 1.3 0.8 1.3 5.9 6.4 7.3 7.0 6.7 Medical, pharmaceutical products 1.1 2.9 4.0 4.9 5.8 8.7 5.3 1.4 0.7 -0.6 0.6 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.4 Transport 0.3 1.9 -3.0 4.1 -2.2 -3.7 -4.5 -4.1 0.6 1.2 -0.1 -1.8 4.9 3.7 3.7 2.6 -3.6 Communications 0.3 0.6 -4.1 0.1 -1.7 -4.3 -4.7 -4.3 -3.2 0.0 1.4 1.3 0.7 0.5 -0.9 -0.9 0.0 Recreation and culture 3.6 4.4 3.0 4.8 3.2 3.0 3.6 2.8 2.5 1.2 0.4 -0.2 5.6 4.9 4.0 2.8 3.2 Education 1.9 5.2 3.4 4.8 6.1 5.1 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.0 1.9 1.6 4.6 4.6 5.0 6.0 6.1 Catering services 7.3 9.6 4.4 10.4 8.7 6.3 4.9 4.0 2.7 1.9 1.9 -2.9 10.7 10.4 10.0 9.7 8.8 Miscellaneous goods & services 3.6 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.4 3.8 3.3 4.4 3.9 2.3 2.0 0.5 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.2 HCPI 3.8 5.5 0.9 6.2 3.1 1.7 0.6 -0.2 1.4 1.7 2.4 2.3 6.9 6.0 5.6 4.8 2.9 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and eneray) 2.6 4.6 1.9 4.7 4.0 3.1 2.6 1.2 0.7 0.0 0.4 0.4 5.1 4.7 4.5 4.1 3.9 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total 4.2 3.8 -1.3 5.1 3.2 1.1 -1.5 -3.1 -1.8 -1.0 2.3 3.4 4.9 5.5 4.8 4.2 3.3 Domestic market 5.5 5.6 -0.4 6.2 4.2 1.5 -0.4 -1.5 -1.1 0.2 2.0 2.8 6.3 6.7 5.7 5.0 4.0 Non-domestic market 3.0 2.2 -2.2 3.9 2.3 0.8 -2.6 -4.5 -2.5 -2.1 2.6 4.0 3.6 4.3 4.0 3.3 2.7 euro area 5.1 2.2 -3.5 4.2 1.5 -0.6 -4.5 -6.0 -3.0 -2.4 2.5 4.0 4.1 4.8 3.8 3.1 1.4 non-euro area -0.5 2.1 0.3 3.4 3.9 3.5 1.1 -1.7 -1.6 -1.6 2.7 3.8 2.5 3.3 4.3 3.9 5.1 Import price indices 4.0 1.3 -3.3 3.8 1.4 -2.1 -4.6 -4.7 -1.8 4.0 8.8 7.8 3.5 3.3 4.7 3.7 1.6 PRICE CONTROL,1 y-o-y growth rates, % Energy prices 0.6 12.4 -12.3 21.1 -1.2 -12.9 -17.7 -17.3 0.4 16.1 18.8 15.9 24.8 20.0 18.4 14.1 -4.3 Oil products -0.9 11.7 -12.0 21.1 -5.7 -16.3 -18.9 -15.9 6.2 21.9 20.3 13.5 25.5 20.0 17.7 12.2 -9.4 Basic utilities -2.3 0.6 3.6 -1.3 1.1 1.7 0.9 0.8 10.8 - - - 1.3 -5.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 Transport & communications 0.6 -0.4 0.6 -1.3 -1.3 -1.2 -1.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 1.1 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 Other controlled prices 2.9 1.8 4.9 1.7 2.4 2.4 6.8 5.6 4.9 4.9 0.4 0.1 1.1 1.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 Direct control - total 3.1 8.6 -6.9 13.7 -0.2 -7.8 -10.9 -10.9 2.9 14.1 16.1 14.4 16.3 12.2 12.4 9.7 -2.2 Source of data: SORS, calculations and estimates IMAD. Note: 1 the structure of groups varies, data published are not directly comparable to those published previously. The electricity market was liberalized on 1 July 2007. Data from July 2007 onwards are not comparable. Since July 2009, formation of prices for utility services is no longer under government control.. 2008 2009 2010 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2.1 1.6 2.1 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 -0.6 0.0 -0.1 0.0 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.4 2.3 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.0 3.8 3.5 3.1 3.0 2.0 0.6 0.0 -1.3 -0.4 -0.4 -1.2 -0.8 -1.1 -2.4 -1.2 -0.7 -0.1 0.4 1.7 2.8 2.9 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.7 4.0 4.3 8.4 9.0 9.1 8.6 7.7 7.7 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.6 5.9 9.9 5.1 4.5 5.2 8.2 8.5 4.8 2.3 0.6 2.3 0.5 1.9 1.1 -1.3 -1.7 -3.6 -2.7 -2.8 -3.4 -5.9 -5.7 -3.6 -0.9 -2.4 -2.3 -2.1 -1.7 1.9 2.4 0.8 3.0 1.2 0.1 -2.3 -4.0 -4.9 -3.5 -2.2 -1.7 4.5 6.3 7.6 8.4 8.9 10.7 11.6 11.7 12.4 12.3 11.4 6.5 6.5 6.7 5.1 4.7 4.2 4.5 4.0 4.0 2.5 2.1 2.2 1.5 1.8 1.6 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.5 1.3 2.2 6.7 9.5 9.8 6.9 5.4 5.5 5.1 1.9 1.6 0.7 0.6 1.3 0.3 -0.3 -0.7 -0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 2.8 4.0 5.2 -5.4 -5.1 -2.5 -3.6 -3.5 -4.7 -5.2 -5.6 -3.5 -3.1 -2.8 1.9 2.9 2.3 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.4 -1.5 -1.2 -2.0 -2.1 -4.3 -3.7 -4.7 -4.6 -5.2 -4.4 -4.4 -4.1 -4.2 -4.6 -3.7 -4.0 -1.9 -0.6 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.6 -0.3 0.7 3.5 3.6 2.8 2.8 3.4 3.3 3.6 4.1 3.0 2.7 2.7 3.1 2.7 1.7 1.7 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.6 -0.2 -0.6 -0.3 0.3 6.1 6.0 6.3 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.4 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 0.9 7.7 6.5 6.3 6.0 5.1 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.2 3.3 3.1 2.3 2.6 2.0 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.2 -11.2 3.4 3.4 3.7 4.2 3.3 3.1 3.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 3.6 3.3 2.3 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.0 0.7 0.4 0.4 1.8 1.4 2.1 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.2 -0.6 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.7 2.4 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.1 3.9 3.2 2.8 3.1 2.6 2.6 2.6 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 2.2 1.9 1.1 0.3 -0.5 -1.6 -2.4 -3.0 -3.3 -2.8 -2.4 -1.9 -1.2 -1.4 -1.2 -0.2 1.0 2.9 3.0 3.4 3.5 3.2 3.5 2.3 1.2 0.8 0.2 -0.7 -0.7 -1.3 -1.7 -1.6 -1.4 -1.1 -0.7 -0.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.8 1.0 1.5 1.0 -0.1 -1.2 -2.5 -4.0 -4.7 -4.9 -4.0 -3.2 -2.6 -1.7 -2.8 -2.5 -0.9 1.3 3.2 3.3 4.2 4.1 3.6 0.1 0.2 -0.3 -1.7 -3.1 -4.1 -6.2 -6.7 -6.4 -4.8 -3.9 -2.8 -2.3 -3.0 -3.1 -1.0 1.3 3.2 3.1 4.5 4.1 3.4 2.7 4.2 3.5 2.9 2.5 0.5 0.2 -0.6 -2.0 -2.4 -1.9 -2.3 -0.6 -2.4 -1.5 -0.8 1.4 3.2 3.6 3.4 4.1 4.0 -1.0 -2.4 -1.3 -2.7 -3.8 -4.8 -5.2 -4.7 -5.0 -4.5 -3.7 -2.1 0.4 3.3 3.2 5.4 8.3 9.4 8.7 7.6 7.9 7.7 -12.7 -15.0 -8.9 -14.6 -14.5 -18.0 -20.1 -21.5 -16.3 -13.9 -12.6 3.8 13.0 16.9 13.9 17.5 20.1 20.5 15.8 17.4 15.6 14.6 -18.9 -19.5 -11.2 -17.9 -15.6 -19.4 -21.2 -20.9 -14.8 -11.5 -9.4 10.3 21.9 24.4 18.6 22.8 22.7 22.8 15.6 15.2 13.2 12.1 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 16.3 15.4 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 1.1 1.1 1.1 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 6.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -7.8 -9.4 -5.0 -9.0 -8.6 -11.2 -12.9 -13.7 -10.2 -8.6 -7.6 6.0 11.8 14.6 12.6 15.2 16.7 17.2 14.4 15.5 14.3 13.5 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2007 2008 2009 2008 2009 2010 2008 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 8 9 10 11 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, in EUR m Current account -1,646 -2,489 -526 -544 -698 -757 -304 64 -235 -51 -121 -37 -198 -132 -255 -156 Goods1 -1,666 -2,650 -699 -668 -751 -743 -156 -29 -228 -286 -127 -174 -298 -190 -266 -180 Exports 19,798 20,048 16,167 5,349 5,038 4,577 3,934 4,064 3,950 4,219 4,213 4,712 1,339 1,891 1,841 1,532 Imports 21,464 22,698 16,866 6,017 5,789 5,320 4,090 4,093 4,178 4,505 4,340 4,886 1,637 2,080 2,107 1,711 Services 1,047 1,493 1,114 460 413 304 239 311 296 269 217 313 142 174 141 110 Exports 4,145 5,043 4,301 1,299 1,475 1,219 918 1,049 1,272 1,061 911 1,095 486 476 447 378 Imports 3,098 3,549 3,187 839 1,062 915 679 738 977 793 695 783 344 302 306 268 Income -789 -1,030 -782 -277 -357 -231 -230 -200 -241 -112 -157 -134 -55 -97 -90 -74 Receipts 1,169 1,261 665 315 335 342 131 176 138 220 206 239 116 110 109 107 Expenditure 1,957 2,292 1,447 592 691 573 361 376 378 332 363 373 171 207 199 181 Current transfers -239 -302 -159 -59 -4 -87 -158 -18 -62 79 -54 -42 13 -20 -40 -12 Receipts 941 870 957 215 254 238 141 266 176 374 258 215 115 66 61 87 Expenditure 1,180 1,172 1,116 274 257 325 299 283 238 296 312 257 102 86 101 99 Capital and financial account 1,920 2,545 220 763 631 703 -25 -57 129 173 101 286 210 6 -117 291 Capital account -52 -25 -9 7 -4 -26 -4 41 -4 -42 45 2 1 1 5 41 Financial account 1,972 2,571 230 756 635 729 -20 -98 133 214 56 284 209 5 -122 251 Direct investment -210 381 -539 -123 82 299 3 -415 -46 -81 -39 77 56 -90 -29 93 Domestic abroad -1,317 -949 -121 -439 -248 -132 104 -260 35 1 -121 32 -35 -98 -82 -10 Foreign in Slovenia 1,106 1,329 -419 317 330 431 -100 -155 -81 -82 82 45 91 8 53 103 Portfolio investment -2,255 572 4,625 -1,155 166 1,258 874 1,151 2,293 307 1,102 500 -207 239 387 658 Financial derivatives -15 46 -2 4 5 6 -23 12 12 -2 -22 -35 2 2 2 2 Other investment 4,313 1,551 -4,021 1,949 380 -855 -988 -891 -2,112 -29 -1,047 -207 254 -116 -515 -486 Assets -4,741 -427 -273 -185 434 300 746 -161 -1,053 194 277 -591 -63 366 -434 18 Commercial credits -400 -142 417 -170 -9 554 62 166 -37 227 -229 -212 146 -171 -43 131 Loans -1,895 -325 -29 -442 158 -91 40 -91 -23 45 -359 503 -377 280 -286 73 Currency and deposits -2,454 35 -587 387 304 -155 638 -239 -1,004 18 867 -876 170 279 -115 -191 Other assets 7 4 -75 40 -19 -8 7 2 12 -96 -2 -6 -2 -22 9 5 Liabilities 9,054 1,978 -3,747 2,134 -54 -1,156 -1,735 -730 -1,059 -223 -1,323 385 317 -482 -80 -504 Commercial credits 499 -73 -459 309 -25 -536 -301 -105 25 -78 98 269 -117 59 -66 -182 Loans 3,841 1,869 -2,941 1,472 242 -489 -571 -1,331 -73 -966 -415 -194 228 -98 37 -483 Deposits 4,727 190 -318 346 -272 -137 -858 700 -983 822 -1,079 368 206 -438 -51 159 Other liabilities -13 -7 -29 7 2 6 -5 6 -28 -2 72 -59 0 -5 0 3 International reserves2 140 21 167 80 1 21 114 46 -13 20 62 -50 104 -30 33 -17 Statistical error -273 -56 305 -219 67 54 329 -7 106 -122 19 -249 -11 127 372 -135 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods 1,936 2,241 1,783 576 598 544 442 461 407 473 404 456 152 243 201 185 Intermediate goods 10,436 10,760 8,090 2,893 2,730 2,385 1,977 1,996 2,025 2,093 2,237 2,541 756 998 981 816 Consumer goods 7,035 6,808 6,144 1,817 1,648 1,590 1,474 1,568 1,482 1,620 1,539 1,681 411 629 638 511 Import of investment goods 3,031 3,441 2,288 928 862 878 583 551 521 633 449 605 226 342 289 279 Intermediate goods 12,875 13,735 9,823 3,668 3,543 3,107 2,381 2,335 2,458 2,649 2,682 3,027 1,029 1,222 1,309 1,017 Consumer goods 5,601 5,870 5,004 1,520 1,475 1,416 1,195 1,262 1,255 1,292 1,264 1,315 404 551 544 441 Sources of data: BS, SORS. Notes: 1exports and imports (F.O.B.) include also the adjustment for exports and imports of goods by ITRS and duty-free shops reports; 2 reserve assets of the BS. 2008 2009 2010 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1|2|3|4|5|6|7|8 -346 -75 -137 -92 4 18 42 -84 -136 -15 -55 87 -83 -27 -131 38 -47 -84 94 44 5 -297 -48 -37 -71 -67 -7 45 -50 -161 -17 -50 -79 -158 -17 -87 -23 -71 -121 17 -14 -84 1,204 1,214 1,293 1,427 1,304 1,333 1,427 1,401 1,065 1,484 1,499 1,471 1,248 1,231 1,330 1,651 1,474 1,567 1,671 1,604 1,301 1,501 1,262 1,330 1,498 1,371 1,340 1,382 1,451 1,226 1,501 1,549 1,550 1,406 1,248 1,417 1,674 1,545 1,688 1,653 1,618 1,386 53 92 60 87 103 112 96 59 125 111 114 85 70 74 63 80 90 107 116 84 135 394 307 278 334 344 348 357 436 447 389 367 322 373 293 281 337 348 359 389 470 479 341 215 218 246 241 236 261 376 322 278 253 237 303 219 218 257 257 252 273 386 345 -67 -71 -82 -76 -56 -77 -67 -96 -66 -79 -63 17 -65 -56 -55 -45 -49 -45 -40 -52 -53 126 48 42 41 51 55 69 51 43 44 45 107 69 66 64 77 74 82 83 73 72 193 119 124 118 107 132 137 146 109 123 108 90 134 122 119 122 123 127 123 125 125 -35 -48 -78 -32 24 -11 -31 2 -35 -30 -55 64 70 -28 -52 26 -17 -25 0 26 8 90 35 45 61 116 80 69 80 53 43 60 148 166 63 83 112 54 82 79 115 87 125 83 124 93 92 90 101 77 87 73 116 83 96 91 135 86 72 107 78 90 79 529 188 -96 -117 15 98 -170 104 -66 92 95 -7 85 60 81 -40 146 17 123 17 11 -72 -7 -2 5 -2 -1 45 -3 -2 1 1 25 -67 -7 -2 55 2 -3 3 -8 -4 601 196 -95 -121 18 99 -215 106 -64 91 94 -32 153 67 84 -95 145 20 119 24 15 235 148 -14 -132 -100 -255 -61 -40 27 -34 -17 -89 25 29 -46 -22 1 31 45 56 70 -40 129 -7 -18 -74 -189 3 26 24 -15 -25 36 -10 -8 -77 -36 -23 24 30 6 15 275 20 -6 -114 -26 -66 -64 -65 3 -18 8 -126 36 37 31 15 23 6 15 50 55 213 410 559 -95 1,005 263 -118 864 -216 1,644 -14 -71 392 1,357 -449 194 606 -203 97 86 -35 2 -10 -13 0 4 8 -1 -2 6 8 3 3 -7 -2 -2 -19 -1 -11 -23 -1 0 145 -349 -713 74 -888 20 -24 -663 90 -1,539 115 114 -258 -1,368 573 -252 -493 263 23 -114 -16 717 73 603 70 -152 -730 721 -656 719 -1,116 219 -349 323 157 69 51 -4 -641 53 618 -234 466 149 -26 -62 70 141 -45 -6 85 -117 -68 -31 326 -4 -41 -184 -35 -91 -86 -4 185 122 -185 206 19 48 -62 -77 -58 72 -37 -8 48 5 -54 29 -333 430 17 56 103 -38 151 98 413 127 -269 -808 838 -592 556 -968 292 -367 93 222 75 570 -406 -554 83 521 -449 -22 11 10 -15 -1 -2 5 0 6 6 3 2 -100 -6 5 -1 7 -14 0 -3 68 -572 -422 -1,316 4 -736 751 -745 -7 -629 -423 -104 462 -581 -1,525 504 -303 -489 904 -30 -732 218 -288 -299 -33 30 -48 -32 -25 20 -110 116 88 80 -246 -85 68 115 56 129 84 -37 -171 -43 -125 18 -464 -328 349 -1,353 12 -30 -55 -159 32 -839 -40 -18 -356 -276 328 -245 -35 -33 -244 5 -1,303 441 -361 434 627 -10 -491 -482 -36 358 500 -1,394 448 -133 -206 455 118 -631 415 3 -3 2 -4 2 -1 5 -30 3 -2 2 -8 4 -6 6 72 -63 -8 12 -28 7 5 -4 86 31 -5 62 -11 -53 29 12 8 11 1 51 7 4 32 -60 -23 -3 -4 -184 -113 234 209 -19 -115 128 -20 202 -77 -40 -79 -3 -33 50 3 -100 67 -217 -60 -16 158 128 152 162 171 141 149 147 110 150 167 154 151 117 120 167 143 156 158 157 N/A 589 644 637 695 646 652 698 722 552 751 782 730 581 658 725 854 805 855 882 875 N/A 441 429 491 555 478 524 567 517 392 572 540 578 502 447 475 617 517 546 619 559 N/A 310 172 161 249 190 187 175 170 154 197 218 208 207 121 148 180 211 215 179 177 N/A 782 758 803 820 762 759 814 861 711 886 913 937 799 794 879 1,009 948 1,058 1,020 1,020 N/A 431 353 389 453 437 416 408 434 381 441 447 433 413 357 390 516 417 448 449 441 N/A MONETARY INDICATORS AND INTEREST RATES 2007 2008 2009 2008 2009 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 67 68 160 66 65 66 66 67 69 69 68 69 87 103 Central government (S. 1311) 2,367 2,162 3497 2,162 2,052 2,030 2,069 2,046 2,058 2,176 2,162 2,704 2,867 3,134 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 118 212 376 129 133 136 143 178 184 181 212 223 229 233 Households (S. 14, 15) 6,818 7,827 8413 7,318 7,409 7,521 7,603 7,705 7,857 7,785 7,827 7,831 7,852 7,868 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 18,105 21,149 21682 19,616 20,064 20,404 20,619 20,872 21,134 21,092 21,149 21,346 21,429 21,469 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 2,305 2,815 2703 2,568 2,736 2,726 2,729 2,798 2,815 2,845 2,815 2,815 2,814 2,851 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 2,401 3,666 5301 2,375 2,386 2,403 2,400 2,737 2,965 2,963 3,666 3,887 3,826 3,786 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 26,555 32,113 34730 28,871 29,380 29,805 30,108 30,888 31,444 31,594 32,113 32,388 32,663 32,648 In foreign currency 1,990 2,370 1895 2,259 2,263 2,228 2,271 2,344 2,512 2,371 2,370 2,372 2,315 2,190 Securities, total 3,570 3,346 5348 3,038 3,137 3,188 3,184 3,104 3,059 3,077 3,346 4,046 4,040 4,504 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, l n EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 20,029 23,129 27967 20,613 21,144 21,341 21,465 21,992 22,177 22,385 23,129 23,563 24,487 24,334 Overniaht 6,887 6,605 7200 6,841 7,071 6,744 6,703 6,918 6,666 6,577 6,605 6,415 6,421 6,609 With agreed maturity -short-term 8,913 10,971 9766 9,292 9,439 9,936 9,929 10,038 10,530 10,659 10,971 11,246 12,053 11,705 With agreed maturity -long-term 2,857 4,157 9703 3,046 3,170 3,241 3,378 3,519 3,555 3,727 4,157 4,542 4,729 4,827 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 1,372 1,396 1298 1,434 1,464 1,420 1,455 1,517 1,426 1,422 1,396 1,360 1,284 1,193 Deposits in foreign currency, total 559 490 433 527 488 491 502 493 537 551 490 504 502 491 Overniaht 218 215 237 225 218 220 228 218 244 247 215 242 230 233 With agreed maturity -short-term 248 198 123 224 196 192 190 196 213 227 198 181 195 177 With agreed maturity -long-term 56 41 45 42 42 43 42 43 44 42 41 42 43 42 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 37 36 27 36 32 36 42 36 36 35 36 39 34 39 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.36 0.46 0.28 0.46 0.46 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.51 0.52 0.43 0.48 0.40 0.34 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 3.36 4.30 2.51 4.20 4.30 4.40 4.39 4.53 4.65 4.56 4.45 4.08 3.40 2.82 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 5.80 6.77 6.43 6.53 6.63 6.71 6.95 6.99 7.10 7.17 6.88 7.05 6.63 5.75 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 5.76 6.62 6.28 5.47 6.63 6.91 6.53 6.94 6.76 7.24 7.74 6.61 6.35 6.34 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operation^ 3.8^ 3.8^ 1.2^ 4.0^ 4.0^ 4.2^ 4.2^ 4.2^ 3.7^ 3.2^ 2.5^ 2.0^ 2.0^ 1.50 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates 4.28 4.63 1.23 4.86 4.94 4.96 4.97 5.02 5.11 4.24 3.29 2.46 1.94 1.64 6-month rates 4.35 4.72 1.44 4.90 5.09 5.15 5.16 5.22 5.18 4.29 3.37 2.54 2.03 1.78 LIBOR CHF 3-month rates 2.55 2.58 0.38 2.78 2.84 2.79 2.75 2.78 3.00 1.97 0.91 0.57 0.51 0.44 6-month rates 2.65 2.69 0.50 2.89 2.98 2.94 2.89 2.92 3.09 2.16 1.08 0.71 0.65 0.58 Sources of data: BS, BBA - British Bankers' Association. 2009 2010 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1|2|3|4|5|6|7|8|9 121 140 142 151 167 166 161 161 160 176 177 140 140 142 141 140 142 140 3,288 3,542 3,472 3,456 3,427 3,610 3,625 3,581 3,497 3,334 3,382 2,884 2,897 3,001 3,125 3,130 3,326 3,422 243 254 251 257 262 281 305 336 376 390 395 390 392 395 401 415 421 417 7,910 7,946 7,951 8,055 8,135 8,231 8,295 8,345 8,413 8,452 8,480 8,601 8,647 8,701 8,897 8,917 9,062 9,106 21,509 21,516 21,517 21,557 21,671 21,704 21,688 21,645 21,704 21,792 21,896 21,950 22,062 21,997 22,015 22,020 21,816 21,862 2,869 2,838 2,835 2,838 2,868 2,846 2,846 2,772 2,680 2,684 2,669 2,620 2,606 2,558 2,537 2,516 2,502 2,503 3,829 4,008 4,365 4,382 4,334 4,723 4,563 4,589 5,302 6,141 5,093 5,057 5,555 5,638 6,115 5,459 5,315 5,396 32,790 33,140 33,353 33,601 33,628 34,045 33,922 33,962 34,731 35,678 34,817 34,893 35,430 35,620 36,524 35,990 35,899 35,750 2,172 2,122 2,059 2,017 2,003 1,969 1,939 1,919 1,895 1,904 1,894 1,887 1,859 1,852 1,392 1,355 1,367 1,694 4,686 4,843 4,979 4,925 5,067 5,380 5,460 5,386 5,345 5,211 5,204 4,723 4,871 4,819 5,174 5,112 5,175 5,263 25,649 26,020 26,576 26,206 25,956 26,950 26,860 26,930 27,965 28,953 28,198 27,716 27,949 28,085 27948 27,077 27,357 26,817 6,610 6,876 7,163 6,862 7,011 7,079 6,940 7,028 7,200 7,949 7,139 7,396 7,351 7,732 7834 7,868 8,027 8,029 12,951 13,053 12,015 10,560 10,067 10,720 10,487 10,283 9,779 9,722 9,479 8,582 8,347 8,029 8400 8,593 8,634 8,096 4,876 4,868 6,182 7,600 7,712 7,952 8,190 8,315 9,688 9,928 10,260 10,431 10,894 11,005 11539 10,460 10,529 10,532 1,212 1,223 1,216 1,184 1,166 1,199 1,243 1,304 1,298 1,354 1,320 1,307 1,357 1,319 175 156 167 160 489 495 492 480 462 462 457 454 433 426 439 436 450 495 708 465 495 465 231 251 249 239 240 244 242 261 238 240 241 250 270 299 512 283 310 280 180 166 170 166 150 144 141 122 123 117 120 110 103 104 130 122 121 125 42 41 39 39 38 43 42 43 45 48 52 54 54 57 64 58 61 57 36 37 34 36 34 31 32 28 27 21 26 22 23 35 2 2 3 3 0.28 0.25 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.19 0.19 - - 2.44 2.28 2.40 2.35 2.27 2.14 2.04 1.97 2.00 1.91 1.75 1.69 1.66 1.72 1.74 1.87 - 6.75 6.37 6.59 6.74 6.57 6.64 6.74 5.00 6.28 6.11 6.08 5.33 5.80 5.38 5.42 5.12 - 6.05 6.10 6.19 6.36 6.20 6.66 6.47 5.94 6.06 6.15 6.31 5.64 5.98 6.03 6.19 5.40 - 1.2^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.00 1.42 1.28 1.23 0.98 0.86 0.77 0.74 0.72 0.71 0.68 0.66 0.64 0.64 0.69 0.73 0.85 0.90 0.88 1.61 1.48 1.44 1.21 1.12 1.04 1.02 0.99 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.96 0.98 1.01 1.10 1.15 1.14 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.37 0.34 0.30 0.27 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.19 0.10 0.13 0.16 - 0.54 0.54 0.52 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.28 0.20 0.22 0.23 - PUBLIC FINANCE 2007 2008 2009 2008 2009 2010 2008 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q^ Q2 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS-IMF methodology), current prices, EUR m GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 14,006.1 15,339.2 14,408.0 4,005.7 3,857.5 4,106.6 3,283.0 3,542.8 3,558.8 4,023.5 3,310.2 3,476.9 1,342.2 1,226.0 1,289.3 1,310.0 Current revenues 13,467.2 14,792.3 13,639.5 3,881.0 3,733.8 3,903.4 3,204.0 3,322.8 3,470.3 3,642.3 3,157.8 3,367.7 1,306.1 1,164.7 1,263.0 1,295.2 Tax revenues 12,757.9 13,937.4 12,955.4 3,702.0 3,472.0 3,653.3 3,058.9 3,164.5 3,279.0 3,453.0 2,983.4 3,189.2 1,253.4 1,066.2 1,152.4 1,234.1 Taxes on income and profit 2,917.7 3,442.2 2,805.1 1,106.5 806.5 834.7 707.3 617.5 735.5 744.8 635.5 594.4 297.9 256.5 252.1 261.1 Social security contributions 4,598.0 5,095.0 5,161.3 1,254.2 1,272.9 1,364.8 1,285.3 1,280.9 1,260.6 1,334.5 1,274.4 1,303.8 425.8 414.8 432.3 435.0 Taxes on payroll and workforce 418.1 258.0 28.5 62.2 63.5 72.9 7.4 7.2 6.2 7.7 6.3 7.2 21.3 20.4 21.8 22.1 Taxes on property 206.4 214.9 207.0 62.6 69.6 55.2 20.6 51.5 74.6 60.2 24.1 58.9 23.0 26.5 20.0 16.3 Domestic taxes on goods and services 4,498.6 4,805.3 4,660.2 1,181.7 1,227.8 1,296.4 1,015.4 1,177.5 1,184.2 1,283.1 1,023.9 1,199.2 475.3 336.2 416.3 490.6 Taxes on international trade & transactions 117.1 120.1 90.5 33.7 31.0 29.8 22.5 29.2 17.2 21.7 18.7 24.7 9.8 11.5 9.7 10.2 Other taxes 2.1 1.8 2.9 1.0 0.7 -0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 -1.2 Non-tax revenues 709.2 854.9 684.1 179.0 261.8 250.1 145.1 158.4 191.3 189.3 174.4 178.5 52.7 98.5 110.6 61.1 Capital revenues 136.6 117.3 106.5 26.9 28.8 33.6 14.1 29.7 19.3 43.5 9.8 17.8 12.9 6.8 9.0 6.1 Grants 11.9 10.4 11.1 2.1 3.1 3.1 2.9 1.7 1.9 4.7 2.9 2.2 1.6 0.3 1.2 0.6 Transferred revenues 42.5 53.9 54.3 0.9 0.6 51.3 0.2 1.5 1.1 51.5 0.5 2.3 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.4 Receipts from the EU budget 348.0 365.4 596.5 94.8 91.3 115.3 61.8 186.9 66.2 281.5 139.2 86.9 21.5 53.7 16.1 7.7 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TOTAL EXPENDITURES 13,915.5 15,441.7 16,368.2 3,792.9 3,628.8 4,631.4 3,877.1 4,064.6 3,767.1 4,659.5 4,035.2 4,121.8 1,139.6 1,179.6 1,309.7 1,259.5 Current expenditures 5,950.9 6,557.5 6,797.3 1,581.7 1,513.7 1,886.2 1,768.8 1,682.7 1,578.1 1,771.3 1,795.6 1,756.5 507.2 486.1 520.4 535.2 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3,276.9 3,578.9 3,912.3 906.8 892.5 959.8 965.0 1,005.6 955.4 985.9 956.6 1,012.9 292.5 292.5 307.6 292.9 Expenditures on goods and services 2,212.2 2,527.5 2,506.8 589.3 586.1 829.0 547.1 618.0 603.9 741.4 557.0 623.7 204.0 185.7 196.5 207.5 Interest payments 357.0 335.2 335.9 69.8 12.9 31.5 246.7 48.4 12.0 29.0 272.6 110.0 4.9 2.2 5.7 22.7 Reserves 104.8 116.0 42.3 15.8 22.2 65.9 10.0 10.9 6.8 14.9 9.4 9.9 5.9 5.7 10.6 12.0 Current transfers 6,143.9 6,742.2 7,340.3 1,856.8 1,567.3 1,828.2 1,748.2 1,936.1 1,736.9 1,918.2 1,849.0 1,995.1 513.9 535.3 518.1 528.4 Subsidies 423.4 476.5 597.9 243.0 57.7 115.3 165.0 126.9 86.5 219.4 160.7 122.8 16.6 19.4 21.7 27.7 Current transfers to individuals and households 5,093.3 5,619.2 6,024.1 1,448.9 1,344.8 1,522.0 1,436.2 1,614.8 1,475.9 1,497.6 1,529.0 1,671.1 442.0 464.4 438.4 448.8 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 595.3 598.3 679.5 151.2 153.2 175.2 140.0 178.5 164.5 195.1 150.6 188.6 54.0 48.4 50.7 51.4 Current transfers abroad 32.0 48.2 38.9 13.6 11.6 15.7 7.0 15.9 9.9 6.1 8.7 12.6 1.3 3.0 7.3 0.5 Capital expenditures 1,130.5 1,255.5 1,293.3 215.9 350.0 540.6 175.3 237.2 297.5 584.1 192.8 212.4 77.7 98.2 174.1 94.5 Capital transfers 334.3 458.6 495.2 62.3 130.8 234.9 35.9 112.9 86.0 259.9 47.2 90.0 21.8 38.0 70.9 53.0 Payments to the EU budget 355.9 427.9 439.3 76.2 67.0 141.5 148.9 95.6 68.7 126.1 150.6 67.8 18.9 21.9 26.2 48.4 SURPLUS / DEFICIT 90.6 -102.5 -1,961.4 - - - - - - - - - - - - Source of data: MF Bulletin. Note: in line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the state are not consolidated. Data prior to 2007 are recalculated on the basis of the irrevocable SIT/EUR exchange rate = 239.64. 2008 2009 2010 11 1 12 1 1 2 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1,305.0 1,491.6 1,123.2 1,067.7 1,092.1 1,199.9 1,102.2 1,240.7 1,285.0 1,182.6 1,091.2 1,241.3 1,364.0 1,418.1 1,076.9 1,164.2 1,069.1 1,083.1 1,146.4 1,247.4 1,184.7 1,423.5 1,112.4 1,029.2 1,062.4 1,124.2 1,047.1 1,151.5 1,240.6 1,157.6 1,072.2 1,218.5 1,170.6 1,253.2 1,048.1 1,116.0 993.6 1,063.0 1,113.2 1,191.5 1,126.5 1,292.7 1,068.5 980.1 1,010.3 1,076.2 996.5 1,091.7 1,194.2 1,087.7 997.1 1,164.1 1,113.3 1,175.5 994.1 1,053.8 935.4 1,000.9 1,057.0 1,131.4 261.4 312.2 249.4 239.9 218.1 195.9 229.5 192.1 291.4 233.6 210.4 234.2 232.4 278.2 224.3 219.9 191.3 108.0 210.0 276.4 434.9 494.9 433.4 423.7 428.1 433.1 423.8 423.9 424.5 417.3 418.8 428.7 426.3 479.5 424.0 414.6 435.7 437.4 431.5 434.8 22.7 28.1 3.2 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.6 1.7 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.9 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.2 2.5 26.6 12.3 5.3 7.9 7.4 7.9 15.8 27.9 22.6 34.6 17.4 17.1 30.4 12.7 6.7 8.6 8.8 9.7 31.2 18.0 371.0 434.9 370.7 298.5 346.2 424.3 316.7 436.5 445.4 395.4 343.5 474.0 413.3 395.8 331.1 401.7 291.0 434.8 373.4 391.1 9.7 9.9 6.3 8.1 8.1 12.4 8.2 8.6 7.4 5.1 4.7 7.4 8.1 6.1 5.7 6.9 6.1 8.3 8.4 8.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 58.1 130.9 43.8 49.1 52.2 48.0 50.6 59.8 46.4 69.8 75.1 54.3 57.3 77.7 54.0 62.2 58.2 62.2 56.2 60.1 6.2 21.2 2.8 5.9 5.3 3.9 15.5 10.4 8.2 6.4 4.7 6.8 9.2 27.5 2.3 2.7 4.8 7.3 5.3 5.2 1.0 1.6 0.2 0.7 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.8 1.0 1.0 2.7 0.2 0.2 2.5 0.8 1.0 0.3 49.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.5 49.3 1.7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.8 63.6 43.9 7.5 31.9 22.4 70.6 39.3 77.0 34.7 18.4 13.1 14.5 133.9 133.1 26.3 45.0 67.9 11.1 26.3 49.5 1,452.7 1,919.2 1,119.8 1,408.5 1,348.8 1,255.5 1,478.1 1,330.9 1,249.6 1,264.6 1,252.9 1,402.4 1,443.7 1,813.4 1,307.1 1,372.2 1,355.9 1,322.8 1,464.3 1,334.7 562.4 788.7 502.2 619.0 647.6 569.3 580.8 532.6 539.0 535.4 503.7 557.2 542.0 672.1 520.1 631.7 643.8 614.0 594.2 548.2 306.4 360.5 305.3 333.1 326.6 312.7 374.0 318.9 325.6 318.1 311.7 325.4 323.6 336.9 316.7 315.2 324.7 314.0 377.3 321.6 241.4 380.1 172.0 179.1 196.0 212.7 202.2 203.1 207.1 213.2 183.6 206.1 213.8 321.5 170.8 179.3 206.9 193.4 211.5 218.7 2.0 6.8 21.4 103.1 122.3 41.7 1.9 4.8 4.4 1.7 6.0 21.6 1.7 5.8 28.7 134.5 109.4 104.0 1.5 4.6 12.5 41.3 3.5 3.7 2.8 2.3 2.7 5.9 1.9 2.4 2.4 4.2 2.9 7.8 3.9 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.9 3.3 680.2 619.6 515.3 638.3 594.5 571.1 761.3 603.8 583.7 570.0 583.1 591.2 652.6 674.4 651.3 578.4 619.3 612.0 753.2 629.9 18.5 69.1 9.1 110.6 45.3 31.3 54.7 40.9 27.3 22.6 36.6 38.4 97.7 83.4 111.1 22.6 27.0 39.7 42.2 40.9 600.7 472.5 463.1 480.6 492.5 487.2 643.7 483.9 492.1 496.7 487.0 491.7 497.7 508.3 495.1 506.0 527.9 510.2 647.4 513.6 50.3 73.5 40.9 46.4 52.7 51.0 56.3 71.2 62.1 49.6 52.9 59.0 55.7 80.3 42.5 48.3 59.8 60.2 60.3 68.0 10.7 4.5 2.2 0.7 4.1 1.5 6.6 7.8 2.2 1.1 6.7 2.2 1.5 2.4 2.6 1.6 4.5 1.9 3.2 7.5 96.1 349.9 57.4 60.5 57.4 65.6 84.1 87.4 87.5 101.9 108.1 119.3 147.4 317.3 73.6 60.9 58.3 58.5 67.2 86.7 81.1 100.9 12.8 6.3 16.8 17.1 27.8 68.0 22.7 28.1 35.1 82.3 68.2 109.4 18.8 14.1 14.3 18.6 19.5 51.9 32.9 60.1 32.1 84.4 32.4 32.4 24.1 39.1 16.7 29.1 22.8 52.4 33.4 40.3 43.3 87.0 20.3 19.6 30.2 17.9 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Acronyms Acronyms in the text AJPES - Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, BMASK - Bundesministerium fur Arbeit, Soziales und Konsumentenschutz, BS - Bank of Slovenia, EC - European Commission, ECB - European Central Bank, ELES - Electro Slovenia, ESI - Economic Sentiment Indicator, ESS - Employment Service of Slovenia, GDP - Gross domestic product, HICP - Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, IAADP - Internal Administrative Affairs Directorate, IMAD - Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, IMF - International Monetary Fund, MF - Ministry of Finance, MI - Ministry of the Interior, NFI - Non-monetary Financial Institutions, OECD - Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, PMI - Purchasing Managers Indice, PPA - Public Payments Administration of the Republic of Slovenia, RS - Republic of Slovenia, SCA - Standard Classification of Activities, SITC - Standard International Trade Classification, SORS - Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, WIIW - The Wienna Institute for International Economic Studies, ZEW - Centre for European Economic Research. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities (SCA) A-Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B-Mining and quarrying, C-Manufacturing, 10-Manufacture of food products, 11-Manufacture of beverages, 12-Manufacture of tobacco products, 13-Manufacture of textiles, 14-Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15-Manufacture of leather and related products, 16- Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17-Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18-Printing and reproduction of recorded media, 19 - Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, 20-Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21-Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22-Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23- Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24-Manufacture of basic metals, 25-Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26-Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27-Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28-Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c., 29- Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, 30-Manufacture of other transport equipment, 31-Manufacture of furniture, 32-Other manufacturing, 33-Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D-Electricity,gas,steam and air conditioning supply,E-Water supplysewerage, waste management and remediationactivities, F-Construction, G-Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H-Transportation and storage, I-Accommodation and food service activities, J- Information and communication, K- Financial and insurance activities, L-Real estate activities, M-Professional, scientific and technical activities, N-Administrative and support service activities, O-Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P-Education, Q-Human health and social work activities, R-Arts, entertainment and recreation, S-Other service activities, T-Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods - and services - producing activities of households for own use, U-Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AT-Austria, BA-Bosnia and Herzegovina, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, HR-Croatia, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IT-Italy, IL-Israel, IE-Ireland, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RS-Republic of Serbia, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America. Slovenian economic mirror October 2010, No. 10. Vol. XVI