.^'IMAD O fü Q) £ u £ o o Ü) o u 0) X X • d u^ cB fN cu _Q E cu (D LO Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3826 No. 9 / Vol. XXI / 2015 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Responsible Person: Boštjan Vasle, MSc, Director Editor in Chief: Tina Nenadič, MSc Authors of Current Economic Trends (listed alphabetically): Jure Brložnik, Janez Dodič, Lejla Fajič, Marjan Hafner, MSc, Matevž Hribernik, Slavica Jurančič, Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič, Tanja Kosi Antolič, PhD, Janez Kušar, Jože Markič, PhD, Tina Nenadič, MSc, Mitja Perko, MSc, Jure Povšnar, Ana T. Selan, MSc, Dragica Šuc, MSc. Authors of Selected Topics: Matevž Hribernik (WEF Global Competitiveness Report 2015-2016); Helena Mervic (Social protection expenditure - 2013); Valerija Korošec ,PhD, (Indicators of income inequality and poverty risk 2014. Editorial Board: Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Aleš Delakorda, MSc, Lejla Fajič, Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, Boštjan Vasle, MSc. Translator: Marija Kavčič Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Ema Bertina Kopitar Print: SURS Circulation: 80 copies © The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the spotlight................................................................................................................................................................3 Current economic trends..............................................................................................................................................5 International environment...............................................................................................................................................7 Economic developments in Slovenia.............................................................................................................................8 Labour market..................................................................................................................................................................11 Prices..................................................................................................................................................................................13 Balance of payments.......................................................................................................................................................15 Financial markets.............................................................................................................................................................16 Public finance....................................................................................................................................................................18 Boxes Box 1: Real estate market - Q2 2015............................................................................................................................10 Box 2: Main aggregates of the general government - 1s' half of 2015 and revision for 2011-2014..............................19 Selected topics WEF Global Competitiveness Report 2015-2016......................................................................................................25 Social protection expenditure - 2013..........................................................................................................................26 Indicators of income inequality and poverty risk 2014............................................................................................27 Statistical appendix.....................................................................................................................................................29 The Economic Mirror is prepared based on statistical data available by 7'h October 2015. On January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev.2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia, the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, which includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses, came into force on the mentioned date. In the Slovenian Economic Mirror, all analyses are based on the SKD 2008, except when the previous SKD 2002 classification is explicitly referred to. More general information about the introduction of the new classification is available on the SURS website http://www.stat.si/eng/ skd nace 2008.asp. All seasonally adjusted data in the Economic Mirror are calculations by IMAD. In the spotlight The prospects for economic activity in the euro area remain favourable; the risks are mainly related to the international environment. At the beginning of the second half of the year, short-term indicators of economic activity in the euro area improved slightly while the unemployment rate continued to fall. Confidence indicators show that economic activity will continue to grow in the coming months. International institutions did not change significantly their autumn forecasts for GDP growth in the euro area, expecting growth of around 1.5% in 2015 and 2016. According to the OECD, the ECB and the IMF, the key risks to growth arise from slowing GDP growth in emerging economies, increased uncertainty and fluctuations on global financial markets, and uncertain oil price trends. The values of short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia are mostly rising; only construction activity declined further at the beginning of the second half of the year. The most favourable movements are recorded for merchandise exports and production volume in manufacturing, which were significantly higheryear-on-year in the first seven months of 2015. As a result of increased domestic production activity and the recovery of private consumption, turnover is also rising in the majority of market services. At the same time, activity continues to decline in construction, the only sector that still lags behind the levels from the same period of 2014. Labour market conditions continue to improve; wage growth is modest. Employment is increasing, seasonally adjusted. In the first seven months, it was up year-on-year in most activities, particularly in medium-low-technology manufacturing industries, traditional market services and employment activities. The decline in registered unemployment accelerated in the last two months, seasonally adjusted. At the end of September, 104,758 persons were registered as unemployed, 6.9% less than in September 2014. Gross earnings per employee are rising more slowly this year than in 2014, seasonally adjusted. In the private sector, they remained similar year-on-year in the first seven months, while in the public sector they were 1.2% higher due to the above average growth in public corporations and last year's payments of suspended promotions in the general government. The year-on-year fall in consumer prices (-0.6%) increased slightly in September. Deflation was underpinned by energy prices (a contribution of -1.1 percentage points), which declined more than in previous months. Growth in services prices remained modest, at 0.2 percentage points. Food prices were also slightly higher (0.2 percentage points) than in the same period of 2014. The deleveraging of non-banking sectors at domestic banks is easing; after several months of stagnation, the share of non-performing claims declined in July. In the first eight months of the year, corporate and NFI loan volume decreased less than in the same period of last year, while lending to the government and households increased. In the first seven months, enterprises and NFIs recorded net short-term borrowing abroad, while they continued to make net repayments of long-term loans. Banks' deleveraging abroad was higher than in the same period of 2014 owing to the repayment of a bond and the ouflow of bank deposits. Given the low interest rates, households are increasing only overnight deposits. The creation of impairments and provisions continues to slow. The share of non-performing claims fell slightly more strongly in July (to 11.1%). The general government deficit (EUR 760 m) in the first seven months was lower than in the same period of 2014 (by EUR 184 m) mainly as a result of higher revenues. These were up 2.3% year-on-year primarily owing to higher tax revenues and social security contributions; receipts from the EU budget were also significantly higher, after the strong absorption in July. General government expenditure recorded a modest year-on-year increase in the first seven months (by 0.2%), on account of higher expenditure on reserves and interest payments. Total transfers to individuals and households also rose slightly. This year, Slovenia improved its position on the global competitiveness scale, but remains one of the least competitive countries of the EU. It improved its ranking in all three competitiveness categories, the most in innovation and business sophistication factors. The improvement was primarily the result of more favourable macroeconomic and fiscal indicators, as well as some measures taken in the past two years. This is probably also reflected in the generally more favourable answers of the managers surveyed. Nevertheless, Slovenia remains one of the countries that have slipped the most down the scale after the beginning of the crisis. Similar to previous years, the main barriers to business operations in Slovenia are restrictive labour regulations, inefficient government bureaucracy, high tax rates and limited access to financing. V) ■ö £ Ol E o £ 0 u 01 £ Q) 3 U International environment With an improvement in short-term indicators of economic activity in the euro area at the beginning of the second quarter, the prospects for growth remain favourable. July recorded an increase in production volume in manufacturing (0.4%, seasonally adjusted). Construction output rose (1.0%) after the unfavourable developments in the second quarter, but remains lower than at the beginning of the year. Turnover in retail trade continues to expand (0.3%). The labour market situation is improving, as the unemployment rate fell further in July (to 10.9%). Confidence indicators indicate a continuation of euro area GDP growth in the coming months. After stagnating for five months, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) improved more noticeably in September, particularly in manufacturing, services and trade. In the third quarter, the average value of the Purchasing Managers' Index was the highest in four years, regardless of September's decline. Figure 1: Short-term indicators of economic activity EMU and the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in , 100 !E 90 85 - Industrial production in manufacturing ■ Construction output ■ Turnover in retail trade -ESI (right axis) 75 110 100 !S 95 85 Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. The forecasts of international institutions for economic growth in the euro area in 2015 did not change significantly in the autumn, but the risks to global growth increased. In September, the ECB reduced slightly its forecast for this year's growth in the euro area by 0.1 percentage points to 1.4%. Consensus forecasts for the euro area and Germany were also slightly lower, while the forecasts for Slovenia's other main trading partners remained unchanged. The IMF left its forecasts for euro area GDP growth unchanged in October (1.5%). On the other hand, the OECD raised its interim forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6%, estimating that the low oil prices, the low interest rates and the depreciation of the euro against the US dollar will continue to favourably impact GDP growth in the euro area. According to the OECD, the IMF and the ECB, the key risks to growth are currently stemming from outside the EU area: the slowing GDP growth in emerging economies (China, Russia, Brazil), the rising uncertainty and volatility on global financial markets, and uncertainty surrounding oil price movements in the coming months. Figure 2: Consensus forecasts for 2015 -EMU -Germany -Italy ---- France ----Austria Source: Consensus Forecasts. Table 1: Indicators related to the international environment average change, in %* 2014 VIII 15 IX 15 IX 15/ VIII 15 IX 15/ IX 14 I-IX 15/ I-IX 14 Brent USD, per barrel 98.93 46.58 47.67 2.3 -50.9 -48.1 Brent EUR, per barrel 74.58 42.97 43.32 0.8 -43.3 -35.6 EUR/USD 1.329 1.114 1.122 0.7 -13.0 -17.8 3-month EURIBOR, in % 0.209 -0.028 -0.037 -0.9 -13.4 -24.9 Source: EIA, ECB Euribor; calculations by IMAD. Note: * in Euribor change in basis points. The ECB left its interest rates unchanged in September; its monetary policy remained accommodative. The asset purchases are carried out as planned (EUR 60 bn per month). At its latest meeting, the ECB increased the limit on the share in individual bond issues from 25% to 33%. In the six months since the beginning of the implementation of the expanded asset purchase programme,1 it bought around EUR 360 bn of euro area countries' government bonds. In September, the yield to maturity of Slovenian ten-year government bonds declined slightly again, to 1.89%. The spread against the German bond yield was also smaller than in the previous month (121 basis points). The yields to maturity of 10-year government bonds of most euro area countries rose in September, but their level remained low. 1 The expanded asset purchase programme includes purchases of euro area government and corporate bonds in the total amount of EUR 1,140 bn. 95 ^ 80 90 Figure 3: 10-year government bond yields Figure 5: Short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia 16 10 iw 6 Sourcer: Bloomberg. Figure 4: Prices of Brent crude oil and the USD/EUR exchange rateEUR -Price in EUR (left axis) -Price in USD (left axis) — USD to EUR exchange rate (right axis) 130 120 110 100 90 .Q cc ^^ 70 c^ 60 50 40 30 1.50 1.45 1.40 1.35 1.30 m 1.25 i3 a 1.20 U 1.15 1.10 1.05 1.00 Source: ECB, EIA; calculations by IMAD. Economic developments in Slovenia The values of short-term indicators of economic activity are mostly rising; only activity in construction declined further at the beginning of the second half of the year. Merchandise exports are expanding after the contraction in the first quarter. Production volume in manufacturing also continues to increase. Turnover on foreign markets is increasing in the majority of industries. In some, turnover is also rising on the domestic market. With increased domestic production activity and the recovery of private consumption, turnover is rising in most market services. Activity continues to decline in construction, the only sector that still lags behind the levels of the same period of 2014. - Merchandise exports - Industrial production in manufacturing ----Construction output ----Turnover in retail trade CN CN ro^^ ro^^ ro^^ ro^^ ro^^ ro^^ Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Table 2: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia in % 2014 VII 15/ VI 15 VII 15/ VII 14 I-VII 15/ I-VII 14 Merchandise exports, real1 6.6 0.03 4.3 4.7 Merchandise imports, real1 3.6 -3.33 -0.5 3.5 Services exports, nominal2 4.5 0.63 5.0 5.4 Services imports, nominal2 7.5 -4.33 -1.2 0.7 Industrial production, real 2.2 1.03 3.34 4.94 -manufacturing 4.3 1.13 4.04 5.34 Construction -value of construction put in place, real 19.5 -2.83 -14.0 -7.0 Real turnover in retail trade 0.0 -0.13 0.14 0.94 Nominal turnover in market services (without trade) 2.7 0.93 2.94 3.24 Sources: BoS, Eurostat, SURS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 'External trade statistics; deflated by IMAD, 2balance of payments statistics, 3seasonally adjusted, 4working-day adjusted data. Real merchandise exports are improving after the decline in the first quarter, while imports fell further in July, seasonally adjusted.2 The growth of exports in recent months is a consequence of export growth outside the EU, while exports to the EU maintain the level recorded at the end of 2014.3 Looking at product groups, the total growth mainly results from renewed growth in exports of chemical products and machinery, while exports of road vehicles contracted in the second quarter of this year after the strong growth in the second half of 2014. The 2 The estimate of real merchandise exports is based on nominal exports according to the external trade statistics and industrial producer prices on the foreign market, while real merchandise imports have been estimated on the basis of nominal imports according to the external trade statistics and the index of import prices. 3 Based on original data, we estimate that outside the EU, exports to Serbia, Turkey, Bosnia and Herzegovina, the US and Switzerland increase in particular. 18 = 14 12 ^ 8 4 2 0 decline in merchandise imports is due to smaller imports of consumer goods (particularly passenger cars); imports of intermediate goods continue to rise while imports of investment goods maintain the level of the second half of last year. Real merchandise exports were up 4.7% year-on-year in the first seven months while imports were up 3.5%. Figure 6: Merchandise trade - real -Exports -Imports 5Ž 5Ž ji ji ji Source: SURS; calculatons by IMAD. Nominal exports of services remain higher than in the same period of 2014; with the continuation of modest growth, imports are also higher year-on-year (seasonally adjusted) for the first time in a long period.4 In the first seven months, exports of services were up 5.4% year-on-year, again as a consequence of higher exports of transport and travel services. Meanwhile, imports were up 0.7%, largely on account of higher imports of Figure 7:Trade in services - nominal -Exports of services -Imports of services technical, trade-related and transport services. Imports of construction services remain lower than one year ago due to the completion of works on a major energy facility, as do imports of professional and management consultancy services, which recorded strong growth at the beginning of 2014 due to the payment of the costs of the banks' asset quality review. Production volume in manufacturing increased further in July, seasonally adjusted. It was higher than in the second quarter in all groups of manufacturing industries according to technology intensity (seasonally adjusted). In the first seven months, manufacturing production was up 5.3% year-on-year (working-day adjusted). It increased the most in more technology-intensive industries, but was also up year-on-year in medium-low and in most low-technology industries. Sales revenues also expanded in most industries in the first seven months of 2015, being up 5.4% on average over the same period of 2014. On foreign markets, sales revenues increased in most industries. They declined particularly in some low-technology industries (alongside the textile industry, the most in the manufacture of beverages). On the domestic market, sales revenues were up especially in some low- and medium-low-technology industries: in addition to the metal and textile industries, also in the wood-processing and furniture industries, which are more domestic-market oriented than the majority of other industries. Figure 8: Production volume in manufacturing according to technology intensity ^■Jan-Jul 2014 ^^ Jan-Jul 2015 -------Average technology-intensity Jan-Jul 2014 -Average technology-intensity Jan-Jul 201 5 # 25 f^ 20 15 10 5 ^^ 0 -5 -10 Ji Source: BoS; calculatons by IMAD. 4 According to the balance of payments statistics. Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: Pharmaceutic.ind., IMAD estimate. The value of construction put in place dropped further in July (seasonally adjusted). Activity in the construction of civil-engineering works declined for the fourth consecutive month and was 17.0% lower year-on-year in July. The value of construction put in place in non-residential construction also fell, but it remained more or less unchanged year-on-year in the first seven Figure 9: Value of construction put in place 80 70 60 50 40 30 10 -Total ----Residential buildings -Non-residential buildings ----Civil-engineering works Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. months. The construction of residential buildings is still significantly lower than last year. The stock of contracts and the value of new contracts in construction remain low. The stock of contracts in the construction sector dropped further in July and was 15% lower than at the beginning of the year. The value of new contracts otherwise rose in July, but remained at the lowest level since 2000. In July, turnover in wholesale trade rose further, while turnover in other trade sectors remained similar to the second quarter, seasonally adjusted. Boosted by further growth in domestic production activity, nominal turnover in wholesale trade continued to rise and was up 1.2% year-on-year in the first seven months. Growth in the sale of motor vehicles and in some retail trade segments indicates a further pick-up in private consumption. Real turnover in the sale and repair of motor vehicles, which otherwise contracted slightly in July after the strong growth in previous months, was up 13.2% year-on-year Box 1: Real estate market - Q2 2015 The number of residential property transactions increased in the second quarter of the year and was a fifth higher than in the same period one year before. The majority of transactions were in existing flats,1 the number of which reached a seven-year high. The sales of new dwellings were also up, but they were still significantly lower than before the crisis. We estimate that the rebound in real estate transactions was - in addition to the still low prices - also due to the relatively low effective interest rate on housing loans, lower uncertainty after the stabilisation of the banking system and improved consumer confidence owing to the recovery on the labour market. Residential property prices rose in the second quarter for the third time in a row and were up year-on-year for the first time in three years. After reaching the lowest level since 2007 in the third quarter of 2014, the prices of dwellings have been rising and were up 3.6% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2015. The prices of existing dwellings rose, but the prices of newly built dwellings increased even more and were 7.2% higher year-on-year. Figure 10: Transactions in new and existing dwellings Figure 11: Prices of new and existing dwellings 160 E 120 100 80 - Transactions in existing flats - Transactions in new flats ----Transactions in existing houses ----Transactions in new houses a a a a Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. 95 85 80 75 - Prices of existing flats -Prices of new flats ----Prices of existing houses ----Prices of new houses a a a a Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. 1 Existing flats constitute two thirds of all real estate transactions. 20 0 90 - 60 40 70 Figure 12: Turnover in trade subsectors - Retail trade, real ----Motor vehicles and repair, real -Wholesale trade, nominal Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. in the first seven months, in addition to higher sales to natural persons, also due to higher sales to legal entities.5 In retail trade, real turnover increased in the sale of nonfood products and, after the interruption in the second quarter, particularly in the sale of furniture, household appliances, construction material and audio and video recordings. Meanwhile, turnover fell notably in the sale of automotive fuels, the only trade subsector to be down year-on-year in the first seven months. Figure 13: Nominal turnover in market services (other than trade) -Total - Transport and storage (H) ----Communication activities (J) ----Professional-technical activities (M) -Administration and support service activities (N) ----Accommodation and food service activities (I) ^^ ^^ ^^ ^^ Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. 5 In the first seven months, the sales of cars used by natural persons were up 15.7% year-on-year (within that, the sales via leasing by a quarter); the sales of cars used by legal entities were 6.6% higher. Nominal turnover in market services continues to grow (seasonally adjusted). As a result of the increased use of flexible forms of employment, strong growth is still recorded in employment services (employment placement agencies). Amid the strengthening of domestic production activity and exports, turnover continues to increase in transport services; this year, it is also rising in computer programming and legal and accounting activities. With a gradual rebound in private consumption and a higher number of foreign tourists, turnover is also expanding in accommodation and food service activities and travel agencies. A further contraction is recorded only in telecommunication services; activity in architectural and engineering services remains low. The economic sentiment indicator, reaching the highest levels since the beginning of the crisis this year, remained high in September. After deteriorating in the second quarter, confidence in retail trade improved during the next three months, while confidence in construction deteriorated further. Confidence in manufacturing and service activities and among consumers remained high in the third quarter. Figure 14: Business trends -Economic sentiment ----Retail trade -----Construction 20 -Manufacturing —»— Service activ. ---Consumers Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Labour market In July, the number of employed persons6 increased further (0.1%, seasonally adjusted; 1.5%, year-on-year). In the first seven months it was up in most private sector activities, particularly in medium-low-technology manufacturing industries, accommodation and food service activities, transportation, and distributive trades. The largest increase was recorded in employment activities, where 6 According to the Statistical Register of Employment; these are persons in paid employment and self-employed persons except farmers. Table 3: Employed persons by activity Number in '000 Change in number 2014 VII 15 VI 15 VII 14 VII 15/VII 14 I-VII 15/I-VII 14 Manufacturing 178.3 180.9 180.6 178.4 2,574 1,729 Construction 54.0 55.5 55.6 55.4 160 475 Market services 339.0 348.5 348.1 340.1 8,394 9,447 -of which: Employment activities 10.6 14.7 14.5 10.6 4,059 4,771 Public services 171.0 171.0 172.4 170.4 685 861 Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 48.8 48.2 48.3 49.1 -808 -768 Education 66.0 65.4 66.7 65.0 442 558 Human health and social work activities 56.2 57.4 57.4 56.3 1,051 1,070 Other1 55.5 49.5 50.5 57.7 -8,169 -3,741 Total 797.8 805.5 807.1 801.8 3,644 8,771 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: 'Agriculture and hunting, forestry, fishing; mining; electricity, gas and steam supply; water supply, sewerage, waste-management and remediation activities Figure 15: Employed persons according to SRE and registered unemployed persons -Employed according to SRE (left axis) -Registered unemployed (right axis) „ 800 i5 780 Table 4: Indicators of labour market trends 770 750 740 E 720 in % 2014 VII 15/ VI 15 VII 15/ VII 14 I-VII 15/ I-VII 14 Persons in formal employment2 0.5 0.1' 0.5 1.1 Registered unemployed 0.2 -0.5' -5.7 -5.9 Average nominal gross wage 1.1 0.0' 0.4 0.5 - private sector 1.4 -0.2' -0.1 0.2 - public sector 0.9 0.2' 1.4 1.2 -of which general government 0.6 -0.1' 0.3 0.8 2014 VII 14 VI 15 VII 15 Rate of registered unemployment (in %), seasonally adjusted 13.1 13.0 12.4 12.3 Average nominal gross wage (in EUR) 1,540.25 1,535.66 1,539.82 1,541.83 Private sector (in EUR) 1,424.32 1,421.83 1,416.61 1,420.11 Public sector (in EUR) 1,757.29 1,750.06 1,773.77 1,773.74 -of which general government (in EUR) 1,726.43 1,714.98 1,747.88 1,719.27 Source: SURS, ESS; calculations by IMAD. Sources: ESS. SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: 'seasonally adjusted, 2 Persons in paid employment, self-employed persons and farmers. the year-on-year growth has eased significantly since the beginning of the year. In public services, employment rose particularly in health and social work and education, while it declined in public administration. The decline in registered unemployment accelerated in the last two months (seasonally adjusted). The number of registered unemployed declined 1.1% in September (seasonally adjusted). At the end of September, '04,758 persons were registered as unemployed, 6.9% fewer than in September 2014. In the first nine months of 2015, fewer persons registered as unemployed than in the same period last year, mainly as fewer lost work for business reasons or due to bankruptcies. The number of first-time jobseekers was also lower than one year before. The outflow from unemployment was also slightly smaller, primarily owing to a smaller outflow into employment (also as fewer people were included in public works). Amid economic growth, in the past two years significantly more unemployed persons have been hired than in previous years. Average gross earnings per employee remained unchanged in July (seasonally adjusted); this year, their growth (0.5%) was half lower than last year. In the private sector, average earnings fell in July (-0.2%, seasonally adjusted). They are stagnating this year, with monthly fluctuations. In the first seven months, they were up 0.2% year-on-year. Their weak growth is largely attributable to changes in the structure of employment as a result of a rising number of workers with relatively low wages, and deflationary movements. In the public sector, average earnings rose further in July (0.2%, seasonally adjusted), owing to growth in public corporations;7 in the general government, they remained 7 Public corporations are corporations controlled by units of the general government sector, the basic criterion for determining control being majority ownership (owning more than half of the voting shares). They include companies, banks, insurance corporations, old people's homes, pharmacies, etc. Figure 16: Average gross earnings per employee - Gross earnings per empoloyee ----Private sector -Public sector ---- - of which, general government sector ----- - of which, public corporations Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 17: Growth in gross earnings per employee by activity group 2 Other market services (J-N; R-S) Public Traditional Industry (B-E) services market (O-Q) services (G-I) Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. similar to the previous month. In the first seven months, public sector earnings were up 1.2% year-on-year, with equal contributions coming from growth in public corporations8 and growth in the general government.9 In the first seven months earnings rose in half of the activities, while in the same period of 2014 they were up in most. The strongest growth was recorded in financial and insurance activities (2.6%).10 Outstanding growth was 8 This was significantly higher in public financial than in public non-financial corporations, but the latter made a larger contribution to the total growth of average earnings in public corporations. 9 Growth in the general government was attributable to last year's payments of suspended promotion raises and this year's wage movements. 10 A breakdown by sector shows significantly higher growth in public financial (3.4%) than private financial companies (2.0%). also reported for gross earnings in industry,11 particularly in manufacturing activities (2.0%), but it was more modest than in the same period of 2014 (3.5%). Among market services, earnings were around 1% higher year-on-year in distributive trades, information, professional-technical and transport services; in others, they were lower than one year before.12 Earnings in public service activities were also up year-on-year (0.4%). Prices With a large fall in energy prices, the year-on-year decline in consumer prices deepened slightly in September (-0.6%), while food and services prices remained higher. With current oil price movements on global markets,13 the year-on-year decline in energy prices (a contribution of -1.1 percentage points) deepened and mainly reflected the year-on-year falls in the prices of liquid fuels and gas. Electricity prices remained higher year-on-year owing to the increase in RES charges in the previous month. Food prices were somewhat higher than one year before (0.2 percentage points), again mainly as a result of the higher prices of unprocessed food. Growth in services prices remained modest, at 0.2 percentage points. Core inflation is still low. Figure 18: Breakdown of year-on-year inflation Other Services Fuels and energy ^HFood Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. In the euro area, prices were also down year-on-year in September (-0.1%), after recording modest growth in previous months. As in Slovenia, energy prices also declined in the euro area (-0.9 percentage points), but in Slovenia their contribution to deflation was larger due to their larger share in the structure of household consumption. The prices of services, which are rising 11 Including manufacturing, mining, and electricity and water supply. 12 Notably in other activities (S) (-2.4%), accommodation and food service activities (-1.6%), and real estate activities (-1.3%). 13 Euro prices of Brent crude were down 44% year-on-year in September. 4 3 0 Table 5: Consumer price growth, in % 2014 VIII 15/VII 15 VIII 15/VIII 14 Total 0.2 0.1 -0.3 Food -1.0 -0.4 1.8 Fuels and energy -4.1 -0.8 -6.1 Services 2.8 0.6 0.5 Other1 0.2 0.2 0.2 Total excluding food and energy 1.3 0.4 0.3 Core inflation - trimmean2 0.0 0.2 0.3 Administered prices -2.6 -2.4 -8.6 Tax impact - contribution in percentage points. 0.4 0.1 0.0 Source: SURS, Ministry of Economic Development and Technology; calculations by IMAD.Notes: 1 Clothing, footwear, furniture, passenger cars, alcoholic beverages, tobacco, etc.; 2The trimmean approach excludes the share of extreme price changes in each month. The optimum share is determined as a difference between the moving average and the calculated trimmed mean in the period of the last five years. Figure 20: Industrial producer prices and import prices -PPI (domestic market) ----PPI (foreign market) -Import prices -1^6 Figure 19: Headline and core inflation in Slovenia and in the euro area -Slovenia HICP ----Slovenia HICP - core inflation -Euro area HICP 4 0 ----Euro area HICP - core inflation 3.5 3.0 # 2.5 2.0 ^ 1.5 1.0 ^ 0.5 >- 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 Source: Eurostat. faster than in Slovenia, were up (0.6 percentage points), as were the prices of unprocessed food (0.2 percentage points). Industrial producer prices were down year-on-year in August on the domestic and foreign markets; import prices were lower too. The price decline on the domestic market (-0.4%) deepened slightly, notably in the chemical, pharmaceutical and food-processing industries. The prices in the metal industry were the same as one year earlier, after increasing in previous months. Prices also remained similar to those in September 2014 in most other industries. On foreign markets, prices were down year-on-year for the first time in a year (-0.4%) mainly owing to a larger fall outside the euro area. Prices in the euro area were equal to those one year before. Import prices were down year-on-year in August (-0.5%), after ji ji ji ji ji Source: SURS. the modest growth in previous months. In addition to the lower oil prices on global markets, the decline mainly reflected price declines in the chemical, pharmaceutical and food-processing industries, while price growth in the metal industry eased. In July, price competitiveness improved further, but the improvement was smaller than in most other euro area countries. The real effective exchange rate deflated by the relative HICP14 was lower year-on-year in July, as it has been for more than one year due to the depreciation of the euro against the currencies of most main trading partners15 and a decline in relative prices. This year, Figure 21: Real effective exchange rate (HICP deflator) -HICP Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD. 14 Slovenian prices relative to prices in the trading partners. 15 Particularly against the US dollar, the Chinese yuan, the South Korean won, the British pound and the Swiss franc. 10 8 4 2 -4 Slovenia is in the group of euro area countries with relatively smaller year-on-year price competitiveness gains, which can be attributed to the geographical structure of its trade.16 Balance of payments In the first seven months, the current account surplus was up year-on-year primarily owing to the further growth of the surplus in international trade in goods and services. The balance of primary income was negative (in the same period of 2014, positive); the deficit in secondary income was somewhat larger than in the same period last year mainly owing to the net outflow of various current transfers of the private sector. In one year to July, the current account surplus reached 7.0% of estimated GDP. The surplus in external trade continues to increase this year. In the first seven months, the higher surplus in merchandise trade was mainly due to faster growth in exports to the EU and lower imports from non-EU Member States. The higher surplus in trade in services was contributed primarily by larger surpluses in trade in travel and transport services, and, to a lesser degree, trade in all other services. The bulk of the deficit in primary income is attributable to the net outflows of investment income and a smaller net inflow of other primary income. In the first seven months, Figure 22: Components of the current account of the balance of payments 2,500 2,000 1,500 : 1,000 ■ Secondary income ■ Trade in services -Current account balance ■ Primary income ■ Merchandise trade -500 -1,000 I.-VII. 2011 I.-VII. 2012 I.-VII. 2013 I.-VII. 2014 I.-VII. 2015 Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. 16 As Slovenia has an above-average share of trade with the euro area, it is relatively less susceptible to the volatility of the euro. Furthermore, this year the euro has mainly been losing value against the currencies of those trading partners that account for relatively smaller shares in Slovenia's trade outside the euro area (US, United Kingdom, Asian countries), while being stable against the currencies of those with relatively larger shares (Croatia, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Poland). the deficit of investment income was up year-on-year as a result of higher estimated losses of Slovenian direct investors abroad.17 The surplus in other primary income was lower due to lower subsidies from the EU budget and higher net payments of taxes on production and imports. The net outflow of international financial transactions18 in the first seven months was larger than in the same period last year. Portfolio investment, having seen a net inflow in the same period of 2014, recorded a net outflow. The net outflow of other investment was smaller than one year before; direct investment flows remained modest. Portfolio investment recorded a net outflow in the first seven months mainly as a result of the lower government borrowing. The government borrowed EUR 188 m net by issuing securities (in the same period of last year, EUR 3.9 bn). Having repaid a portion of liabilities to foreign portfolio investors in the first half of the year, it issued a 10-year bond in the amount of EUR 1.25 bn with a 2.125% interest rate in July. Meanwhile, the BoS increased investment in long-term debt securities. Looking at the private sector, investment funds (with the exception of money market funds), insurance companies and pension funds were buying foreign securities, which is explained by higher yields on foreign financial markets. The net outflow of other investment in the first seven months was smaller than in the same period last year. Last year's high net outflows were chiefly the result of increased assets from currency and deposits in foreign accounts and private sector deleveraging abroad. In the first seven months of this year, capital flows were more moderate. The BoS was withdrawing deposits from its Figure 23: Financial transactions of the balance of payments ■ Other investment «Financial derivatives ■ Portfolio investment ■ Direct investment I.-VII. 2011 I.-VII. 2012 I.-VII. 2013 I.-VII. 2014 I.-VII. 2015 Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. 17 On the current account of the balance of payments, the coverage of losses is recorded as negative reinvested earnings of direct investors. 18 Financial account excluding reserve assets. 0 Table 6: Balance of payments I-VII 15, in EUR m Inflows Outflows Balance1 Balance I-VII 14 Current account 18,581.4 17,018.9 1,562.5 1,478.8 Goods 14,077.6 13,056.8 1,020.8 714.7 Services 3,280.2 2,172.9 1,107.2 955.3 Primary income 761.6 1,025.0 -263.4 96.8 Secondary income 462.0 764.2 -302.1 -288.1 Capital account 334.4 282.9 51.5 -19.4 Gross acquisitions/disposals of non-produced non-financial assets 91.2 86.5 4.7 7.4 Capital transfers 243.2 196.4 46.9 -26.8 Financial account -981.9 675.1 1,656.9 1,392.3 Direct investment 448.5 208.8 -239.6 -357.9 Portfolio investment -651.5 609.2 1,260.7 -4,630.0 Financial derivatives -50.1 -24.2 26.0 -7.0 Other investment -728.7 -130.5 598.2 6,223.4 Assets 0.0 -130.5 -130.5 4,012.0 Liabilities -728.7 0.0 728.7 -2,211.4 Reserve assets 0.0 11.7 11.7 163.9 Net errors and omissions 0.0 42.9 42.9 -67.1 Source: BoS. Note: 1a minus sign (-) in the balance indicates a surplus of imports over exports in the current account and a rise in assets in the capital and financial account and the central bank's international reserves. foreign accounts. Domestic commercial banks continued to make loan repayments abroad, but in smaller amounts than in the same period last year. Meanwhile, non-residents increased withdrawals of deposits from Slovenian banks. Direct investment recorded a net inflow in the first seven months. It mainly reflected the inflow of equity capital of foreign direct investors.19 In outward foreign direct investment, inter-company loans predominated. Financial markets The deleveraging of non-banking sectors at domestic banks is gradually slowing; new lending has decreased slightly. Enterprises and NFIs are deleveraging; lending to households has been declining in the past three months. In the first eight months,20 the volume of loans to domestic non-banking sectors contracted by around EUR 690 m. New loans to non-banking sectors amounted to EUR 6.7 bn, which is 2% less than in the same period last year. Lending to less risky entities (households, the government) increased. Banks continue to deleverage abroad. The maturity structure of deposits continues to deteriorate. 19 As a result of the transformation of a long-term loan into an equity stake. 20 In loan movements in the first eight months of 2015, the change in volume as at 31 August 2015 relative to 31 December 2014 is shown. Figure 24: Changes in domestic bank loans to households, enterprises and NFIs and the government ■ Households «Enterprises and NFIs Government ♦Total 400 200 0 -200 -400 Ču -600 -800 -1,000 -1,200 -1,400 I-VIII 2011 I-VIII 2012 I-VIII 2013 I-VIII 2014 I-VIII 2015 Source: BoS; calculationy by IMAD. The volume of household loans declined in the last three months due to the slowing growth in housing loans. In the first eight months, the total volume of loans increased by about EUR 50 m. Only the volume of housing loans is on the rise (EUR 118 m), also as a result of new lending for housing purposes. The decline in consumer loans and loans for other purposes is slowing gradually. The decline in the volume of corporate and NFI loans at domestic banks continues to ease gradually. In the first eight months, the volume of corporate and NFI loans contracted by around EUR 800 m, which is approximately 20% less than in the same period last year. The slowdown is primarily due to the slower deleveraging, as new lending was around 15% smaller than in the same period of last year. NFIs are deleveraging abroad; the net flow of corporate borrowing is still positive. In the first seven months, enterprises recorded net borrowing of EUR 25 m abroad solely as a result of short-term net borrowing (over EUR 110 m), which is rising this year. They continue to make net repayments of long-term loans, but the outflow of these loans has slowed this year. NFIs have significantly increased net repayments of long-term loans abroad this year (EUR 220 m), while the net flow of their short-term loans is similar to that of enterprises. The differences between domestic and foreign interest rates21 continue to narrow gradually. In July, they amounted to around 100 basis points. Banks' deleveraging abroad continues. In the first seven months, banks repaid EUR 1.4 m, a 2.5 times higher figure than in the same period last year. This surge is primarily 21 Interest rates on loans of over EUR 1 m with a variable, or up to one year, with a fixed initial interest rate. Table 7\ Financial market indicators Domestic bank loans to nonbanking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR bn Nominal loan growth, % 31. XII 14 31. VIII 15 31. VIII 15/31. VII 15 31. VIII 15/31. XII 14 31. VIII 15/31. VIII 14 Loans total 22,883.1 22,195.0 -0.5 -3.0 -11.5 Enterprises and NFI 12,300.4 11,495.3 -1.0 -6.5 -21.3 Government 1,820.3 1,887.9 0.0 3.7 14.2 Households 8,762.5 8,811.8 -0.1 0.6 0.0 Consumer credits 2,104.1 2,059.0 -0.5 -2.1 -4.3 Lending for house purchase 5,348.0 5,465.7 -0.1 2.2 2.5 Other lending 1,310.5 1,287.1 0.7 -1.8 -3.2 Bank deposits total 15,355.6 15,624.2 -0.2 1.7 2.5 Overnight deposits 7,373.6 8,504.1 0.9 15.3 18.5 Short-term deposits 3,272.5 2,695.9 -2.9 -17.6 -21.3 Long-term deposits 4,704.9 4,414.6 -0.6 -6.2 -4.8 Deposits redeemable at notice 4.6 9.5 -2.0 108.3 94.6 Mutual funds 2,150.7 2,269.0 -7.4 5.5 7.7 Government bank deposits, total 1,909.4 2,261.7 -0.5 18.4 -10.5 Overnight deposits 24.6 497.5 -5.3 1,922.9 2.5 Short-term deposits 860.6 370.2 -24.6 -57.0 -73.3 Long-term deposits 955.2 1,252.4 13.0 31.1 106.7 Deposits redeemable at notice 69.0 141.5 -4.9 105.0 208.3 Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BoS, SMA (Securities Market Agency); calculations by IMAD. Note: NFI - Non-monetary Financial Institutions. due to the repayment of a matured bond and a larger outflow of bank deposits, while the repayment of foreign loans is slowing. According to BoS data, the maturing of liabilities to foreign banks will slow notably in the coming months. Figure 25: Net repayments of foreign liabilities of domestic banks ■ Long-term loans ■ Short-term loans «Deposits «Notes ♦Total 500 -500 E -1,000 cc Üu " -1,500 -2,000 -2,500 -3,000 I-VII 2011 I-VII 2012 I-VII 2013 I-VII 2014 I-VII 2015 Source: BoS. The increase in household and government deposits is slowing; the maturity structure of deposits is rapidly deteriorating. In the first eight months, the volume of household deposits rose by around EUR 270 m. The low interest rates on deposits already have a significant adverse impact on the maturity structure of deposits. The shorter maturity of deposits is also one of the factors that have a negative effect on the lending activity of banks. Only overnight deposits are rising rapidly, which is, according to our estimate, due to the transfer of deposits with an agreed maturity, which decreased by more than 10% in the first eight months of the year. Government deposits rose by around EUR 350 m in the first eight months, their movement being largely dependent on liquidity needs of the government budget, according to our estimate. The creation of impairments and provisions continues to slow; after several months of stagnation (since March), the share of non-performing claims fell slightly more strongly in July. It reached 11.1%, the decline being the result of a smaller volume of non-performing claims (particularly against foreigners) and a larger volume of loans (particularly to foreign banks, but also to domestic banks). Because of the gradual decline in non-performing claims, the creation of additional provisions and impairments is slowing. It amounted to around EUR 120 m in the first seven months, which is more than half less than in the comparable period of 2014. 0 Figure 26: Creation of impairments and provisions and the share of arrears of more than 90 days in the classified claims in the Slovenian banking system Provisions and impairments -Share of arrears of over 90 days (right axis) 500 450 400 350 300 ^^ 250 200 150 662 2254 ■ ll y -50 20 18 16 14 12 8 6 4 2 Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. Public finance The general government deficit22 in the first seven months totalled EUR 760 m, EUR 184 m less than in the same period of 2014. The primary balance23 was also lower year-on-year, at minus EUR 73 m. The lower deficit reflects higher revenue, whose year-on-year growth mainly arises from the more favourable labour market situation and higher economic activity, better performance of companies in 2014 (and consequent payments of the underpaid Figure 27: Budget balance and primary budget balance ■ Budget balance ■ Primary budget balance 0 -200 -400 -600 E -800 cc ^^^ -1,000 -1,200 -1,400 -1,600 -1,800 I.-VII. I.-VII. 2014 2015 Source: MF, Bulletin of Government Finace; calculations by IMAD. 22 According to the consolidated general government budgetary accounts on a cash basis. 23 The budget balance excluding net interest payments. corporate income tax for the previous year in 2015), the strengthening of private consumption, and government measures.24 The 2.3% year-on-year growth of general government revenue in the first seven months was, in addition to higher tax revenues and social contributions, also due to higher receipts from the EU budget as a result of the strong absorption in July. Among tax revenues, which were up 5.9%, revenues from the corporate income tax (CIT) and the value added tax (VAT) increased the most. The growth of revenue collected from VAT, which strengthened in July, arises from growth in private consumption and measures for more efficient VAT collection, while the year-on-year increase in revenue from CIT mainly stems from the positive settlement of this tax for 2014. In addition to social security contributions (3.5% growth, year-on-year),25 revenue from the personal income tax was also up year-on-year under the impact of improved labour market conditions. Taxes on immovable property were also higher, as a result of the deferment of collection of compensation for the use of building ground for 2014 to 2015, as were, amid somewhat higher excise duties, revenues from excise duties, particularly on energy. The increase in the categories that recorded revenue growth more than offset the year-on-year decline in nontax revenues (-31.9%) stemming from this year's lower payment of the surplus from the treasury single account (TSA) management into the state budget and last year's payment of concession fees for mobile telephony radio frequencies. General government expenditure was somewhat higher year-on-year in the first seven months of 2015 (by 0.2%), which is mainly related to higher expenditure on reserves and interest payments. The increase in the allocation of funds for reserves (92.2% growth) is related to transfers to the new budget funds, the water protection fund and the climate change fund.26 The increase in interest payments (by 3.1%) is attributable to the higher public debt, whose interest rate structure is otherwise slightly more favourable year-on-year. Social security transfers were up due to the inclusion of the annual pension supplement and changes in social legislation;27 sickness benefits were also higher. Labour costs, expenditure on 24 Such as: the broadening of the base for social contributions; increasing the CO2 tax; increasing the rates of the taxes on financial and insurance services; and measures aimed at improving the efficiency of tax collection. 25 The growth of social security contributions is also partly due to the broadening of the contribution base, particularly by including income from student work. 26 Within the reserves item, there was also an increase in the special purpose funds for scholarships, which since 2013 have been gradually transferred into this category from current transfers. 27 In August 2014, the amount of financial social assistance was adjusted, and in September 2014, the eligibility criteria were relaxed slightly. The limit of assets that are not taken into account when determining eligibility for this social right was raised; for some types of families, child benefit is no longer added to the income in the total amount; a more favourable way of taking into account occasional earnings, such as student work, was introduced. 22 50 0 0 Box2: Main aggregates of the general government - 1s' half of 2015 and revision for 2011-2014 The general government deficit is declining this year.1 In the first half of the year, it accounted for 3.8% of GDP (in the same period of 2014, for 4.4% of GDP). These movements reflect the adoption of measures to increase revenue and contain growth in some expenditure categories in the circumstances of the recovery of the economy. In the first half of the year, revenue growth (3.6%) thus outpaced expenditure growth without one-off events or transfers (1.5%). The deficit excluding these factors totalled 3.4% of GDP in the first half of the year; in the same period of 2014, 4.4% of GDP. The impact of exceptional transfers in the first half of the year was larger than in the same period of 2014 (0.4% of GDP, compared with 0.1% of GDP). It was related to larger capital transfers into companies managed by the BAMC. Table 8: Revenue, expenditure and balance, and general government debt In GDP, % 2011 2012 2013 2014 Revenue 43.3 44.5 45.3 44.9 Expenditure 50.0 48.6 60.3 49.8 General government surplus (+)/deficit (-)" -6.7 -4.1 -15.0 -5.0 Central government -6.7 -3.9 -15.1 -5.0 Local government 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Social security funds 0.0 -0.3 0.2 0.2 Primary surplus (+)/deficit (-) -4.8 -2.1 -12.5 -1.8 Surplus(+)/deficit(-) excluding exceptional transfers2 -5.7 -3.9 -4.3 -3.3 Consolidated gross debt, as at the end of the year 46.4 53.7 70.8 80.8 Source: SURS. Note: 1 Some totals do not necessarily add up due to rounding; 2 Exceptional transfers include: bank recapitalisation (EUR 243 m in 2011, EUR 61 m in 2012, EUR 3,633 m in 2013 and EUR 352 m in 2014), the payments to depositors of LB in Croatia and Bosnia (EUR 257 m in 2014), the assumption of debt of Slovenian Railways (EUR 119 m in 2011), compensation to persons erased from the permanent residence register (EUR 130 m in 2013) and the payment of the third quarter of funds to eliminate wage disparities in the public sector (EUR 94 m in 2013). Half of revenue growth in the first half of the year stemmed from higher tax revenues. The strongest growth among tax revenues arises from the value added tax, the corporate income tax, and the taxes where increased tax rates started to apply this year (on financial and insurance services). Revenue from social contributions also rose, in addition to the improvement in labour market conditions, also due to the broadening of the base for social contributions to student work. Receipts from the EU Cohesion Fund (capital transfers) were also up year-on-year, as were miscellaneous market revenues (revenues from rentals, taxes, fees, etc.). The inflows of current transfers, having increased in 2014 due to one-off factors (revenue of the treasury single account), were lower this year. Property income was also down, owing to lower interest income. Expenditure in the categories for which austerity measures were adopted in the last few years has remained almost unchanged year-on-year in the first half of the year. The austerity measures were aimed at containing expenditure on compensation of employees, subsidies, intermediate consumption and social benefits; the latter also declined due to the lowering of Figure 28: Year-on-year change in general government revenue in the first half of 2015 Source: SURS. Figure 29: Year-on-year change in general government expenditure in the first half of 2015 Source: SURS. Note: Acquisitions less disposals of non-produced non-financial assets, changes in inventories and acquisition less disposals of valuables. 1 Data on the deficit and all revenues and expenditures are derived according to the ESA 2010 methodology. transfers to the unemployed. The increase in total expenditure in the first half of the year was thus the result of increases in other expenditure categories, i.e. interest payments, which have been rising for seven consecutive years, and capital transfers to cover the losses of companies managed by the BAMC. Under the impact of one-off factors due to the sale of the concession for the use of a radio-frequency spectrum, which lowered expenditure in the category of non-produced non-financial assets in 2014, this expenditure was higher this year and made the largest contribution to total expenditure growth in the first half of the year. The forecast for the general government deficit in 2015 remains unchanged from the spring, while the forecast for debt is higher. In October's report under the Excess Deficit Procedure, the general government balance is forecast at 2.9% of GDP. The consolidated debt at the end of 2015 is estimated at 84.0% of GDP. With the unchanged deficit forecast, the higher forecast for debt with regard to April's report (81.6% of GDP) is mainly attributable to the higher pre-financing for 2016. After the revision of the main general government aggregates for 2011-2014, the deficit and debt in the 2011-2014 period are slightly higher than according to previous data. The deficit in this period is EUR 18 m higher per year, on average; general government debt is also higher after the revision, by 0.1% of GDP per year. Table 9: Consolidated general government revenues 2011 2012 2013 2014 I-VII 2014 I-VII 2015 Y-o-y growth, in % EUR m Growth, in % Contribution to growth, perc. p. GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES 1.3 0.1 -1.8 5.2 6.2 8,917.8 2.3 2.3 TAX REVENUES* 4.3 -0.8 -4.5 5.3 7.4 4,715.3 5.9 3.0 Personal income tax 0.7 1.1 -10.1 2.5 2.5 1,112.5 3.0 0.4 Corporate income tax 48.8 -13.6 -54.0 76.6 190.6 355.9 28.3 0.9 Taxes on immovable property 1.4 8.7 7.1 -9.1 -63.5 70.8 103.4 0.4 Value added tax 1.8 -2.9 4.3 4.1 8.8 1,877.3 4.1 0.9 Excise duties 1.6 6.7 -4.5 0.0 -1.4 844.9 2.1 0.2 SOCIAL SECURITY CONTRIBUTIONS 0.6 -0.4 -2.2 2.8 2.4 3,149.1 3.5 1.2 NON-TAX REVENUES -10.2 10.1 8.4 19.8 26.1 504.7 -31.9 -2.7 RECEIPTS FROM THE EU BUDGET 12.5 3.7 11.0 10.9 -1.4 485.6 10.8 0.5 OTHER REVENUES (capital and transferred revenues, donations) -56.5 -4.7 23.5 -49.7 -27.2 63.1 52.4 0.2 Source: MF, Bulletin of Government Finance; calculations by IMAD. Note: * Unlike tax revenues in the consolidated balance of public finance, tax revenues in this table do not include social constributions. Table 10: Consolidated general government expenditure 2011 2012 2013 2014 I-VII 2014 I-VII 2015 Y-o-y growth. in % EUR m Growth. in % Contribution to growth. perc. p. GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE -0.9 -2.5 1.0 2.9 1.4 9,678.2 0.2 0.2 CURRENT EXPENDITURE -0.5 -1.6 0.4 3.0 -0.8 4,177.8 1.1 0.5 Salaries. wages and other personnel expenditures -0.8 -4.0 -3.0 -0.2 -0.6 2,126.8 0.0 0.0 Expenditure on goods and services -2.7 -2.9 -5.7 -0.3 -3.4 1,257.5 -1.6 -0.2 Interest payments 7.9 23.0 29.7 30.6 9.5 698.1 3.1 0.2 Reserves 56.1 -12.2 119.8 -27.9 -40.9 95.4 92.2 0.5 CURRENT TRANSFERS 2.5 -1.7 -0.2 -1.0 -0.5 4,528.8 -0.5 -0.2 Of which: Transfers to individuals and households 4.1 -2.3 -0.6 -0.1 0.1 3,793.9 0.5 0.2 INVESTMENT EXPENDITURE -18.2 -11.5 9.4 27.1 42.4 689.0 -0.5 0.0 PAYMENTS TO THE EU BUDGET 2.1 -3.7 9.0 -5.3 -4.1 282.6 -0.4 0.0 Source: MF. Bulletin of Government Finance; calculations by IMAD. pensions,28 capital expenditure and payments into the EU budget were similar to the same period last year. The largest year-on-year reductions were achieved in expenditure on goods and services (-1.6%) and subsidies (-5.9%). With the decline in the number of unemployed, transfers to unemployed were down as well; transfers to domestic and foreign non-profit organisation and foreign governments were also lower. In the first eight months, the net position of the state budget against the EU budget was more favourable than in the same period of 2014, particularly as a result of the faster absorption from the Cohesion Fund. Until August, the net position was positive, at EUR 223.4 m, compared with EUR 146.2 m in the same period of 2014. Slovenia received EUR 541.3 m from the EU budget, 50.5% of the level envisaged in the revised budget for 2015, and paid EUR 307.9 m into the EU budget, 77.1% of the total amount planned for 2015. More than a third (37.3%) of all receipts were Cohesion Policy funds (41.1% of those planned); receipts from the Structural Funds accounted for 30.3% of all receipts (51.7% of the amount planned) and funds for the implementation of the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies for 29.3% (71.9% of the level planned). The absorption from the Cohesion Fund for Environmental and Transport Infrastructure Development (OP ETID), where Slovenia lags furthest behind in the implementation of projects with regards to the appropriated funds, has accelerated the most this year. In the first eight months, 20.5% more funds were Figure 30: Absorption according to Cohesion Policy funds ■ Total receipts in 2014 (Jan-Aug) ■ Total receipts in 2015 (Jan-Aug) Cohesion Fund European Fund for Regional Development 50 200 100 150 In EUR m Source: Ministry of Finance -Budget Directorate. 28 From this year on, the annual pension supplement (which was previously recorded under pensions) is included among social security transfers. This supplement excluded, pension expenditure was similar to that in the same period last year. reimbursed into the state budget for this purpose than in the same period last year. The accelerated absorption is recorded particularly in the development priorities of sustainable energy use, environmental protection and transport infrastructure, the areas into which Slovenia is also re-allocating funds that will not be spent within other development priorities (railway infrastructure and municipal waste management). Within the OP ETID, almost all public procurement procedures that represented a major obstacle to the implementation of projects for a long period are now completed.29 29 Poročilo o črpanju sredstev evropske kohezijske politike 20072013 za Cilj konvergenca, obdobje januar-junij 2015, julij 2015, SVRK (Data on drawing on the EU Cohesion Policy Funds 20072013, the Convergence Objective, January-June 2015, July 2015, Government Office for Development and European Cohesion Policy. 0 %J a o ■o 01 u 31 Ö! WEF Global Competitiveness Report 2015-2016 According to the WEF30 Global Competitiveness Report for 2015, Slovenia's ranking has improved this year after several years of deterioration. Switzerland, Singapore and the US are at the top the list of the 140 countries covered by the report; six of the top ten countries are from the EU. Relative to last year, Slovenia has advanced by eleven places to 59'h among all countries on the scale, and by two places to 23rd among EU Member States. It has improved its position in all three categories of competitiveness,31 most notably in business sophistication and innovation. The improvement is to a large extent the result of more favourable macroeconomic indicators and some government measures adopted in the past two years (labour market reform, pension reform and the beginning of the restructuring of the banking and the corporate sector). The findings of the WEF report are significantly impacted by the results of the opinion survey, which have improved significantly this year due to the slightly more positive perceptions of managers with regard to doing business in Slovenia than in previous years.32 Similar Figure 31: Comparison of the overall indicator values in Slovenia, the EU and the OECD -EU -Slovenia ----OECD 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 Source: WEF; calculations by IMAD. Note: * the top 10 countries. A higher score indicates a better outcome; the highest score is 7. 30 World Economic Forum. 31 In this year's report, the WEF used 114 indicators grouped in 12 key pillars of competitiveness divided in three categories. The first category, basic requirements, includes institutions, infrastructure, macroeconomic environment, and health and primary education. Efficiency enhancers include higher education and training, goods and labour market efficiency, financial market development, technological readiness and market size. The third category consists of innovation and business sophistication factors. As the methodology has been basically unchanged for several years, it is also possible to make comparisons between years. 32 The number of scores and the rankings largely depend on the surveys among managers. Out of the 114 indicators used in the survey, 80 are soft indicators (based on surveys), while the other 34 are based on statistical data for 2014. The surveys were carried out between February and June this year. movements were already indicated in June's release of the World Competitiveness Scoreboard by the International Institute for Management Development (IMD). Despite the improvement, Slovenia remains one of the countries that have slipped the most down the competitiveness scale since the beginning of the crisis (by 17 places; among EU Member States, by 7 places). The values of individual indicators included in the WEF report are significantly lower than in the pre-crisis period and lower than on average in the EU and OECD, which means that further, more radical, structural adjustments will be required to enhance competitiveness. The main barriers to doing business remain more or less the same as in previous years: restrictive labour regulations, inefficient government bureaucracy, and high tax rates. Another major obstacle to business operations is access to financing, which is also reflected in Slovenia's very low rankings on the indicators of financial market development. Figure 32: The most problematic factors for doing business in Slovenia (WEF survey) Restrictive labour regulations Inefficient governm. bureaucracy Corruption Other 10 15 % of responses Source: WEF. 38.6 25 The higher ranking in the category of basic requirements for competitiveness is mainly due to the improvement in the indicators of macroeconomic environment and institutions. Slovenia remains one of the more competitive countries in terms of health and primary education (15'h) and infrastructure (38th), but its position in these two areas has deteriorated slightly in the past year. In health and primary education, this is due to greater progress made by other countries, while in infrastructure, the decline is mainly attributable to the more negative assessments of the quality of roads and railway infrastructure. Slovenia still ranks very low on individual indicators in the area of institutions, although their values improved slightly this year. Managers remain dissatisfied with public institutions and decision makers, particularly when it comes to the wastefulness of government spending (130'h position) and the burden of government regulation (127'h position), and have low trust in politicians (105'h 0 5 20 4.1 position). Slovenia also continues to rank low on the indicators of the efficiency in settling disputes (115'h) and challenging regulations (105'h), where its position has otherwise improved amid the increased efficiency of courts33 and higher trust in the judicial system. With an improvement in some indicators of public finances, Slovenia has also risen 9 places to 89'h position regarding the macroeconomic environment. However, it has to be noted that GDP growth was not taken into account in this calculation and is included in the survey only as an explanatory indicator. In the category of efficiency enhancers, Slovenia's position improved slightly in most areas. Slovenia still ranks high on the indicators of secondary and higher education and training (22nd) and technological readiness (35'h). The crisis has significantly affected the stability of the Slovenian banking system in the past few years, which is reflected in a notable deterioration in indicators related to financial system development. In line with expectations, Slovenia improved its position in most of these indicators after the beginning of banking system stabilisation, but nevertheless ranks low (128'h). Particularly the assessments of bank liquidity and the ability to access financing are low compared with other countries (137th position on both indicators). In the area of labour market efficiency, the tax burden on labour income remains high (139th place) and the rules on firing and hiring (136th place) and the flexibility in wage determination (124th place) are still assessed poorly despite the amendments to the labour market regulations in 2013. Slovenia has advanced the most in the category of business sophistication and innovation. The improvement in business sophistication is mainly due to a more positive assessment of production process sophistication and a broader presence of companies in the value chain, while Figure 33: Comparison of WEF indicators for Slovenia and innovation-driven economies - Innovation-driven economies* 2014/201 5 -Slovenia 2014/2015 ---Slovenia 2008/2009 Institutions 7 ■•■ Infrastructure Technological readiness primary educat. Higher education and training Financial market development Goods market efficiency Labour market efficiency Source: WEF; calculations by IMAD. Note: *the top 10 countries. A higher score indicates a better outcome; the highest score is 7. the state of cluster development remains a weakness (94'h place). Slovenia has significantly improved its ranking in the area of innovation, by nine places to 33rd. For the first time in several years, the managers surveyed have improved their assessments of the capacity of Slovenian enterprises for innovation (by 34 places to 41s'), which is related to the high quality of research institutions (31s' place) and higher tax relief for R&D.34 Social protection expenditure - 2013 In 2013, social protection expenditure declined for the second year in a row. The decline was attributable to changes to social legislation35 and fiscal consolidation measures,36 which entered into force in 2012 and affected most social protection functions in 2012 and 2013. Slovenia allocated EUR 8,924 m for social protection schemes in 2013, 2.2% less in real terms than in 2012. The largest decline was recorded for expenditure on the disability function, which accounts for around 6.0% of total social protection expenditure. Expenditure on this function decreased as a consequence of a lower number of beneficiaries of disability pensions and changes in eligibility criteria for care allowance.37 Expenditure on sickness and health care, which represents around 30% of total social protection expenditure, also decreased. As a result of austerity measures, which reduced certain rights (or limited their level) in the area of family benefits and parental compensation,38 expenditure on the family/ children function (around 8% of total expenditure) went down as well. On the other hand, expenditure on old age, which makes up the largest share of expenditure (42.3%), expanded, which is related to the accelerated retirement before the adoption of the new pension legislation, a larger size of the retiring generation and the partial restoration of pensions.39 Expenditures on housing, unemployment and social exclusion not elsewhere classified, which together account for 6% of total expenditure, were also up. In 2013, social protection expenditure accounted for 24.9% of GDP. Its share was up 3.9 percentage points relative to 2008 owing to higher expenditure in the first years of the crisis and for demographic reasons, combined with a fall in GDP. The largest share of expenditure was again accounted for by expenditure on the old age function (10.3% of GDP), which expanded the most due to the 33 For more see Development Report 2015, Chapter 2.4.2, The Functioning of the Public Administration and the Judiciary. 34 For more see Development Report 2015, Chapter 3.2, Innovation Capacity. 35 Zakon o uveljavljanju pravic iz javnih sredstev (ZUPJS)/Exercise of Rights to Public Funds Act. 36 Zakon za uravnoteženje javnih finance (ZUJF)/Fiscal Balance Act. 37 With the social legislation reform (Zakon o socialno varstvenih prejemkih/Financial Social Assistance Act), care allowance became a social protection right as of 1 January 2013 and the number of beneficiaries claiming this right decreased notably. 38 Large family allowance, childbirth allowance, child benefit, etc. 39 In 2013, the Constitutional Court ruled that the pensions paid from the budget that were unconstitutionally reduced by the ZUJF had to be brought to the previous levels in two parts: the first part to be paid in 2013 and the remainder in 2014. Table 11: Social protection expenditure by function Nominal growth, in % As a % of GDP 2008 2012 2013 2008 2012 2013 Expenditure - total* 8.1 -0.9 -0.5 21.0 24.9 24.9 Social benefits 8.3 -0.9 -0.3 20.5 24.5 24.4 1. Sickness/health care 13.4 1.1 -4.4 6.9 7.9 7.5 2. Disability 4.6 -8.3 -5.9 1.6 1.6 1.5 3. Old age 5.7 0.1 4.2 7.9 9.9 10.3 4. Survivors 9.2 -4.9 -0.2 1.5 1.6 1.6 5. Family/children 10.9 -5.4 -5.8 1.7 2.1 2.0 6. Unemployment -4.1 -7.2 8.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 7. Housing -20.0 100.0 33.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 8. Social exclusion not elsewhere classified -4.8 12.7 1.7 0.4 0.6 0.7 Sources: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: *Total expenditure is the sum of social benefits, administration costs and other expenditure. Social protection expenditure as a % of GDP is calculated on the basis of the most recent GDP data available (First release from 31 August 2015). Figure 34: Structure of social protection receipts ■ Social contributions by employears ■ Social contributions by protected persons General govenment contributions 30 25 20 15 10 5 2008 2012 Source: SURS. 2013 ageing of the population and hence a rising number of pensioners (7.9% of GDP in 2008). Only the share of expenditure on sickness and health care declined relative to 2012 (by 0.4 percentage points to 7.5% of GDP), but remained higher than in 2008, while the shares of other expenditure groups in GDP remained basically the same during the crisis or rose slightly. After falling in 2012, the share of general government contributions in social protection receipts increased again in 2013 (by 1.1 percentage points to 34.9%). General government contributions amounted to EUR 3,110 m, up 3.0% from 2012, when they had declined owing to changes in legislation. Social contributions paid by protected persons and social contributions by employers together (38.0% and 26.3%,«40 respectively) represent the largest share of receipts for financing social protection schemes. In 2013, their total contribution decreased due to a decline in employment and wages.41 40 In Slovenia, the share of employers' contributions is smaller than in most other EU Member States. 41 Revenues from social contributions of both social security funds (Pension and Disability Insurance Institute of Slovenia and Indicators of income inequality and poverty risk 2014 The indicators of income inequality deteriorated further in 2014. Income inequality in Slovenia is nevertheless still lower than in the EU. The Gini coefficient rose by 0.6 percentage points to 25% while income inequality measured by the income quintile share ratio (the S80/ S20 ratio) increased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.7. The indicators of income inequality and poverty risk are calculated on the basis of income distribution in 2013, which reflects the economic crisis, fiscal consolidation measures and changes to the social protection system, which entered into force in 2012.42 The increase in income inequality during the crisis was attributable to a decline in income in lower income brackets. The share of income per family member in the lowest quintile has decreased by 0.8 percentage points since Figure 35: Differences in the shares of disposable income per household member, by decile, 2007-2014 0.3 0.0 0.1 ■ 0.0 0.1 -0.6 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th decile decile decile decile decile deciledecile decile decile decile Source: Eurostat. Health Insurance Institute of Slovenia) declined in 2013. 42 See the previous topic, Social Protection Expenditure in 2013. 40 35 0 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2015 Selected Topics Table 12: Basic indicators of poverty and unequal distribution of income, Slovenia, 2007-2014 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Based on income from 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Inequality of income distribution Quintile share ratio (80/20) 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.7 Gini coefficient 23.2 23.4 22.7 23.8 23.8 23.7 24.4 25.0 At-risk-of-poverty threshold for Single person (EUR/month) 495 545 593 587 600 606 593 596 Family of four (EUR/month) 1,040 1,144 1,246 1,232 1,260 1,273 1,245 1,251 Relative at-risk-of-poverty gap* (%) 19.4 19.3 20.2 20.2 19.9 19.1 20.4 22.0 Median income of households below the at-risk-of-poverty threshold (EUR/month) 399 440 473 468 481 490 472 465 Number of people below the at-risk-of-poverty threshold, in '000 225 241 223 254 273 271 291 290 At-risk-of-poverty rate: A before pensions and before social transfers (%) 39.7 38.5 37.8 39.9 40.2 41.9 42.3 42.5 B before social transfers* (%) 23.1 23.0 22.0 24.2 24.2 25.2 25.3 25.1 C total population (after pensions and social transfers) (%) 11.5 12.3 11.3 12.7 13.6 13.5 14.5 14.5 Note: *The relative at-risk-of-poverty gap is the difference between the at-risk-of-poverty threshold and the median equivalised disposable income of people below the at-risk-of-poverty threshold, expressed as a percentage of the at-risk-of poverty threshold. 2007, while the corresponding share in the highest quintile has increased by 1.0 percentage points. Looking at deciles, during the crisis the share of income declined the most in the bottom income deciles and increased the most in the top income deciles. persons in the 25-29 age group (more for women than for men) and in the 'pre-retirement' age groups of 50-59 (more for women) and 60-64 (more for men).43 In terms of activity status, the risk of poverty increased only in the group of 'other inactive persons. The at-risk-of-poverty rate remained unchanged in 2014, at 14.5% (around 290,000 persons). It declined slightly for the most vulnerable population groups (households with children, one-person households older than 65, unemployed), in our estimation due to changes to social legislation adopted in 2013. The largest increase was recorded for the at-risk-of poverty rate for one-person households younger than 65. Broken down by age and gender, in 2014 the at-risk-of poverty rate rose the most for children younger than 18 (more for boys than for girls), Figure 36: At-risk-of-poverty rate in Slovenia and the EU -Slovenia -EU 18 Figure 37: At-risk-of-poverty rates of selected socioeconomic groups - Two adults, no dependent children - Two adults, three or more dependent children ----One adult, one dependent child —A— One-person household ----One-person household, under 65 years -One-person household, 65 years plus 40 30 20 10 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Eurostat, SURS. Note: until 2009, EU-27; then EU-28. Source: SURS. Note: The at-risk-of-poverty rates are calculated based on income earned in 201 3. In 2014, the at-risk-of-poverty threshold rose by 3 euros per month owing to a slight increase in the average disposable household income. At the same time, the median income of people below the threshold of relative poverty fell by another 7 euros. The relative at-risk-of-poverty gap thus rose from 20.2% to 22.0% and was the largest since the beginning of the crisis. 43 See Development Report 2015, indicator: Unemployment Benefit Coverage. 60 50 0 X "O C o a a (U "!5 u (U MAIN INDICATORS 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Autumn forecast 2015 GDP (real growth rates, in %) 1.2 0.6 -2.7 -1.1 3.0 2.7 2.3 2.3 GDP in EUR million (current prices) 36,252 36,896 35,988 35,907 37,303 38,520 39,919 41,153 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices) 17,694 17,973 17,498 17,435 18,093 18,633 19,247 19,800 GDP per capita (PPS)1 21,100 21,500 21,600 21,700 22,600 GDP per capita (PPS EU28=100)' 83 83 82 82 83 Rate of registered unemployment 10.7 11.8 12.0 13.1 13.1 12.3 11.8 11.1 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 7.3 8.2 8.9 10.1 9.7 9.4 8.9 8.5 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 3.4 2.4 -1.8 0.3 2.5 1.2 1.2 1.4 Inflation,2 year average 1.8 1.8 2.6 1.8 0.2 -0.4 0.8 1.4 Inflation,2 end of the year 1.9 2.0 2.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 1.2 1.6 INTERNATIONAL TRADE Exports of goods and services (real growth rates, in %) 10.2 6.9 0.6 3.1 5.8 5.0 5.2 4.9 Exports of goods 12.0 8.0 0.4 3.3 6.4 5.3 5.4 5.0 Exports of services 3.4 2.5 1.5 1.9 3.4 3.9 4.2 4.3 Imports of goods and services (real growth rates, in %) 6.8 5.0 -3.7 1.7 4.0 4.9 3.8 5.0 Imports of goods 7.6 6.0 -4.3 2.5 3.7 5.4 3.8 5.1 Imports of services 3.1 -0.4 0.2 -3.1 6.0 1.9 4.0 4.5 Current account balance3, in EUR million -43 68 930 2,023 2,607 2,387 2,870 2,776 As a per cent share relative to GDP -0.1 0.2 2.6 5.6 7.0 6.2 7.2 6.7 Gross external debt, in EUR million 42,123 41,669 42,872 41,658 46,314 45,387* As a per cent share relative to GDP 116.2 112.9 119.1 116.0 124.2 Ratio of USD to EUR 1.327 1.392 1.286 1.328 1.329 1.109 1.102 1.102 DOMESTIC DEMAND Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) 1.3 0.0 -2.5 -4.1 0.7 2.0 2.6 2.2 As a % of GDP 56.0 56.0 56.7 55.0 53.3 52.3 52.0 52.1 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) -0.5 -0.7 -2.3 -1.5 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 As a % of GDP 20.3 20.4 20.3 19.8 19.1 18.5 18.5 18.1 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) -13.3 -4.9 -8.8 1.7 3.2 2.0 -1.8 5.0 As a % of GDP 21.3 20.2 19.3 19.7 19.6 19.7 19.0 19.7 Sources of data: SURS, BoS, Eurostat, calculations and forecasts by IMAD (Autumn Forecast, September 2015). Notes: 'Measured in purchasing power standard; 2Consumer price index; 3 Balance of payments statistics; "End July 2015. PRODUCTION 2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 2015 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 8 9 10 11 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D -1.1 -0.9 2.2 -1.7 -1.1 1.6 0.7 2.3 3.1 2.6 6.1 4.6 -5.7 0.8 -1.6 -0.4 B Mining and quarrying -7.4 1.3 -3.8 -9.6 -7.1 16.8 -1.6 33.0 -9.6 -28.1 1.1 -12.5 -1.1 -21.7 -8.0 6.0 C Manufacturing -2.3 -1.5 4.3 -2.0 -1.4 1.2 3.3 3.1 5.1 5.6 6.1 5.2 -6.7 0.6 -2.2 -0.4 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 10.5 3.9 -14.2 1.9 3.2 3.1 -18.3 -10.0 -11.5 -16.1 5.8 3.0 1.7 6.2 5.1 -1.3 CONSTRUCTION,2 real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total -16.8 -2.5 19.5 -10.5 -3.4 22.8 36.8 40.0 19.8 -3.3 0.6 -9.5 -5.3 -5.9 28.2 31.4 Buildings -17.3 -20.4 3.8 -25.1 -16.6 5.1 6.7 6.5 8.0 -4.5 -4.3 -2.8 -19.6 -11.4 10.8 3.1 Civil engineering -16.6 6.3 26.5 -2.6 1.7 27.1 52.5 55.7 25.1 -1.9 2.5 -11.8 2.2 -5.5 31.8 41.5 MARKET SERVICES, year-on-year growth rates, % Services, total -2.8 -0.3 2.7 -0.1 0.5 1.1 3.5 2.0 4.3 1.1 3.4 3.0 -2.1 5.0 1.3 0.3 Transportation and storage 0.0 -0.1 6.2 -0.2 0.6 1.6 7.2 6.1 7.0 4.5 2.3 3.1 -1.5 2.8 0.8 1.3 Information and communication activities -2.9 0.4 1.1 0.9 1.7 0.6 5.0 -0.3 0.6 -0.5 1.5 1.9 1.0 4.4 1.2 -1.9 Professional, scientific and technical activities -7.6 -2.1 -1.8 -1.2 -3.1 -0.6 -4.7 -2.5 6.6 -5.7 3.4 -0.8 -11.2 11.1 -0.7 0.5 Administrative and support service activities -4.5 3.7 2.5 5.5 3.7 5.4 0.2 -1.6 1.8 10.1 14.1 15.1 2.0 7.5 6.2 3.6 Distributive trades, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* -3.6 -1.0 2.4 2.1 -2.2 3.2 2.4 -1.2 5.7 2.6 4.9 6.7 -3.4 1.4 2.2 2.7 Real turnover in retail trade -2.2 -3.7 0.0 -2.6 -4.6 -0.7 -0.7 -1.0 2.3 -0.8 0.8 1.4 -4.6 -3.9 -0.9 -1.4 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles -6.3 4.7 7.2 11.1 3.4 11.6 8.6 -1.7 12.8 9.0 11.6 15.7 -0.2 14.0 8.4 10.4 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade 0.8 -0.2 3.8 1.1 -1.4 4.7 6.2 3.0 6.0 0.1 0.2 1.8 -4.6 -0.2 2.3 1.8 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, %, new methodology from 2009 onwards Total, overnight stays 1.2 0.3 -0.5 -1.5 2.9 0.6 -2.0 -14.0 -3.4 3.9 6.8 28.1 2.2 3.2 4.0 -3.2 Domestic tourists, overnight stays -4.9 -3.4 -3.5 -5.3 -2.4 0.5 -3.4 -8.1 -7.7 1.6 6.8 12.7 -4.6 -3.5 4.3 -2.3 Foreign tourists, overnight stays 5.6 2.8 1.4 0.9 5.6 0.7 -0.6 -17.4 -1.4 5.6 6.9 37.9 5.8 6.4 3.8 -4.0 Accommodation and food service activities -1.1 -1.4 2.1 -3.0 0.5 2.9 2.8 3.3 1.2 1.1 6.7 4.3 -0.6 1.3 3.9 0.7 AGRICULTURE, y-o-y growth rates, % Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EUR m 480.4 478.4 506.9 111.1 123.2 139.6 113.6 122.8 132.5 138.0 102.5 111.4 37.1 41.0 49.3 41.7 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**) Sentiment indicator -16.9 -13.2 -2.2 -14.4 -12.0 -11.3 -8.4 -2.0 -0.1 1.5 4.1 5.1 -11.6 -11.3 -12.4 -10.5 Confidence indicator - in manufacturing -11 -5 2 -6 -4 -2 -1 3 3 3 6 5 -4 -2 -4 -1 - in construction -41 -22 -11 -23 -18 -16 -14 -10 -10 -10 -10 -15 -16 -16 -17 -15 - in services -12 -12 5 -13 -11 -10 -5 6 6 11 15 16 -10 -12 -12 -7 - in retail trade 2 2 9 0 8 3 2 7 10 18 17 15 4 6 16 -5 Consumer confidence indicator -35 -33 -22 -34 -33 -34 -30 -26 -17 -17 -15 -10 -33 -31 -37 -34 Source of data: SURS. Note: "Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. *Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels. **Seasonally adjusted data. 2013 2014 2015 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 8.0 -0.2 -1.4 3.7 0.8 0.0 6.1 5.2 -1.3 4.7 2.9 1.5 3.5 3.3 7.1 7.8 0.7 5.4 7.5 2.2 74.1 30.2 0.0 -27.5 69.7 17.6 10.1 -18.7 -25.3 20.3 -4.5 -24.1 -52.5 -14.9 -3.9 28.9 -35.3 2.3 8.3 10.5 7.7 2.5 1.0 6.3 1.0 0.1 8.3 6.9 1.2 6.4 5.1 3.8 8.3 3.3 6.9 7.9 1.2 6.0 8.2 2.8 - - 5.5 -21.6 -19.4 -13.8 -9.7 -4.7 -15.3 -6.0 -15.7 -13.0 -16.2 -13.7 -18.1 4.4 9.2 4.1 4.2 0.5 4.6 -4.4 - - 6.8 34.5 28.8 44.6 47.2 45.0 30.4 27.7 27.5 6.7 -1.8 -10.5 4.6 -2.7 6.0 -0.9 -6.8 -9.6 -11.9 -14 0.8 6.2 4.7 8.5 9.8 11.3 -0.2 13.6 15.9 -4.0 -5.1 -12.6 7.0 -0.3 -6.7 -5.5 -4.6 -1.1 -2.7 -5.8 6.3 49.1 41.1 63.0 65.1 60.4 44.6 34.1 32.5 11.6 0.4 -8.7 4.5 -4.1 11.9 0.9 -7.5 -12.2 -15 -17 - - 1.9 2.8 2.9 4.7 2.3 2.5 1.3 7.0 3.3 2.7 1.8 -0.6 2.0 0.9 5.7 3.7 1.4 2.7 4.9 3.3 - - 2.8 6.5 5.9 8.9 4.6 6.1 7.6 7.3 3.6 9.8 2.5 2.4 8.9 -2.0 5.7 3.2 0.8 2.2 6.3 2.5 2.3 5.3 6.0 3.8 1.1 0.2 -2.1 3.4 -0.4 -1.0 -0.3 -0.7 -0.6 -0.9 3.2 2.4 2.9 0.3 2.5 2.7 -1.4 -7.2 -6.3 -1.2 -0.6 -1.4 -5.1 17.5 9.8 -4.1 -0.5 -9.0 -7.1 2.8 5.8 2.0 -4.5 1.5 0.7 1.9 6.4 0.5 0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -0.2 -3.7 4.2 -0.7 2.0 8.8 9.6 12.0 13.4 12.8 15.9 12.4 13.4 19.2 9.6 - - 4.8 2.2 1.9 3.2 2.5 -3.2 -2.9 8.4 1.1 7.9 2.9 0.7 4.2 2.0 6.3 6.4 2.6 8.1 9.7 3.3 - - 0.1 -1.1 -0.6 -0.5 3.0 -3.2 -2.8 3.0 -0.8 4.8 -0.7 -1.3 -0.3 -1.2 2.9 0.9 -0.8 2.5 2.6 0.2 16.3 8.8 6.9 10.1 1.5 -3.4 -3.0 19.4 5.7 13.6 9.4 4.0 13.9 7.6 12.1 15.2 8.7 17.4 21.2 9.2 10.2 5.1 5.2 8.4 5.8 -0.1 3.3 6.3 2.3 9.4 1.6 0.1 -1.4 -6.8 3.4 4.4 -2.2 1.8 5.8 1.5 - - 0.1 -0.4 -3.4 -2.1 7.8 -2.9 4.8 -5.1 -1.3 -4.7 6.0 -0.7 5.6 6.2 12.4 2.2 6.1 8.1 6.7 10.9 - - -0.9 -6.9 -5.7 2.4 -3.6 1.0 -1.3 -7.7 -8.7 -5.8 8.2 -0.7 -3.6 9.6 9.9 1.0 10.5 -2.9 7.4 8.3 - - 1.1 4.3 -0.2 -5.8 15.5 -4.9 8.3 -3.8 2.1 -4.2 4.5 -0.7 13.9 4.0 15.7 3.2 3.7 14.2 6.3 12.1 4.1 1.4 2.0 5.1 4.2 2.7 2.9 0.7 4.5 -1.6 3.5 0.2 -0.4 6.9 8.0 5.3 4.3 5.4 3.2 5.4 48.5 38.4 36.0 39.2 42.6 39.4 40.7 48.0 38.8 45.7 47.4 40.9 49.7 34.1 32.1 36.3 37.1 37.0 37.4 43.4 -11.0 -8.8 -9.0 -7.4 -5.3 -0.2 -0.4 1.2 -1.7 0.3 2.3 0.9 1.4 2.9 4.0 5.5 5.0 5.2 5.1 3.5 6.9 5.9 -2 -3 0 0 2 3 5 6 2 2 3 2 4 4 5 9 4 6 6 6 8 5 -17 -15 -17 -10 -16 -5 -8 -7 -12 -11 -9 -11 -10 -11 -10 -10 -15 -15 -14 -16 -15 -19 -10 -5 -6 -4 3 9 7 6 6 7 11 12 11 12 16 16 18 16 15 15 15 16 -2 9 0 -3 1 17 2 11 10 10 18 22 13 23 19 9 21 18 5 5 16 23 -32 -29 -31 -29 -31 -25 -22 -17 -21 -13 -13 -20 -17 -14 -17 -14 -12 -11 -6 -14 -5 -6 LABOUR MARKET 2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 2015 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 8 9 10 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 920.2 913.4 917.9 913.8 910.5 916.5 912.9 919.8 917.5 921.3 919.7 917.5 909.8 910.2 916.7 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)' 810.0 793.6 797.8 795.0 794.4 795.8 784.2 799.6 803.0 804.4 798.0 805.0 793.2 795.5 798.0 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 37.0 38.2 35.4 38.9 38.1 38.4 31.7 37.1 37.5 35.1 32.8 30.5 38.1 38.1 38.5 In industry, construction 263.1 252.2 252.4 252.5 253.5 252.9 249.0 252.9 254.1 253.8 250.4 255.2 253.1 254.0 254.8 Of which: in manufacturing 182.9 177.7 178.3 177.6 177.5 177.8 177.3 178.2 178.6 179.2 178.8 179.9 177.3 177.6 178.1 in construction 59.8 54.3 54.0 54.6 55.7 54.6 51.5 54.6 55.4 54.5 51.8 55.3 55.5 56.0 56.1 In services 510.0 503.2 510.0 503.6 502.8 504.6 503.5 509.7 511.4 515.5 514.9 519.3 502.0 503.4 504.7 Of which: in public administration 50.7 49.1 48.8 49.3 49.1 48.9 48.7 49.0 49.0 48.5 48.1 48.2 49.2 48.9 48.8 in education, health-services, social work 120.9 121.0 122.2 121.1 120.5 121.6 121.6 122.4 121.6 123.1 123.3 124.1 120.0 121.2 121.6 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 717.0 698.7 703.0 700.0 699.6 699.2 693.8 703.5 706.1 708.8 704.2 712.9 698.6 700.5 701.7 In enterprises and organisations 662.6 647.6 652.6 648.5 647.9 648.1 645.2 653.1 654.7 657.2 654.6 661.5 647.0 648.6 649.7 By those self-employed 54.5 51.1 50.5 51.5 51.7 51.1 48.6 50.4 51.3 51.6 49.7 51.4 51.6 51.9 52.0 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 93.0 94.9 94.8 95.0 94.7 96.6 90.4 96.1 97.0 95.6 93.8 92.1 94.6 95.0 96.3 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 110.2 119.8 120.1 118.8 116.1 120.7 128.8 120.2 114.5 116.9 121.6 112.5 116.6 114.7 118.7 Female 52.2 57.4 59.6 56.7 57.0 58.9 61.2 59.4 58.4 59.6 60.0 57.7 57.4 56.5 58.5 By age: 15 to 29 24.9 28.8 30.4 27.7 26.7 31.6 33.6 30.5 27.4 30.2 30.0 26.5 26.7 26.3 30.8 aged over 50 38.2 38.9 37.3 39.3 38.1 37.3 39.0 37.7 36.5 36.0 37.8 36.8 38.3 37.5 37.0 Primary education or less 33.3 34.2 33.8 34.1 32.6 33.6 36.4 33.8 32.1 32.8 35.3 32.0 32.7 32.3 32.7 For more than 1 year 55.2 55.4 59.9 54.3 55.0 57.7 60.7 59.9 59.1 59.7 61.1 60.1 54.5 55.7 56.6 Those receiving benefits 33.9 33.0 26.6 33.7 30.3 28.7 32.7 26.2 23.9 23.7 28.7 22.4 30.5 29.4 28.2 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 12.0 13.1 13.1 13.0 12.8 13.2 14.1 13.1 12.5 12.7 13.2 12.3 12.8 12.6 13.0 Male 11.5 12.5 12.0 12.5 11.9 12.4 13.5 12.1 11.1 11.4 12.3 11.0 11.9 11.7 12.1 Female 12.6 13.8 14.3 13.7 13.8 14.1 14.8 14.2 14.1 14.2 14.4 13.8 13.9 13.6 14.0 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE 5.3 6.0 -4.6 -6.0 -1.9 9.3 2.7 -9.4 -4.8 6.9 -1.4 -7.9 -0.5 -1.9 4.1 New unemployed first-job seekers 16.3 19.1 18.5 2.6 3.4 9.4 4.2 2.7 3.3 8.4 3.5 2.2 0.9 1.5 6.0 Redundancies 90.3 88.7 83.9 18.5 19.6 23.5 25.9 17.3 17.7 23.1 24.4 16.3 5.5 6.4 7.2 Registered unemployed who found employment 58.3 65.1 74.0 18.1 15.8 14.1 20.7 21.4 16.6 15.3 21.8 19.0 4.1 6.4 5.4 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 43.1 37.3 33.2 9.1 9.2 9.9 6.8 7.9 9.2 9.3 7.5 7.5 2.9 3.4 3.8 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 33.9 30.5 25.1 31.7 29.8 27.8 26.3 25.7 24.8 23.6 22.6 23.3 29.8 29.3 28.5 As % of labour force 3.7 3.3 2.7 3.5 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 3.3 3.2 3.1 Source of data: SURS, PDII, ESS. Note: 'In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly Figure for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. 2013 2014 2015 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 917.5 915.3 911.4 913.0 914.4 920.2 919.8 919.4 918.0 916.5 918.1 922.3 922.2 919.4 918.5 919.9 920.6 917.9 917.3 917.3 915.0 798.2 791.3 781.6 783.3 787.7 796.6 800.1 802.1 801.8 801.7 805.5 806.4 806.8 800.0 794.3 797.4 802.5 803.0 804.9 807.1 805.5 38.4 38.4 31.6 31.7 32.0 36.8 37.0 37.3 37.5 37.5 37.6 35.2 35.1 35.1 32.6 32.7 33.0 30.5 30.5 30.5 29.5 254.6 249.3 248.3 248.5 250.0 252.0 253.3 253.4 253.9 253.7 254.7 255.5 255.5 250.4 249.1 249.9 252.2 254.2 255.1 256.2 256.5 178.3 177.0 177.1 177.4 177.5 178.1 178.4 178.1 178.4 178.5 179.0 179.4 179.6 178.6 178.5 178.8 179.1 179.3 179.9 180.6 180.9 55.8 52.0 51.1 50.7 52.6 53.9 54.8 55.0 55.4 55.1 55.7 55.9 55.8 51.9 50.9 51.3 53.2 55.0 55.3 55.6 55.5 505.3 503.7 501.7 503.1 505.7 507.8 509.7 511.4 510.4 510.5 513.2 515.7 516.2 514.5 512.6 514.7 517.3 518.2 519.2 520.4 519.5 49.0 48.9 48.6 48.7 48.9 48.9 49.0 49.1 49.1 48.9 48.9 48.7 48.5 48.3 48.0 48.1 48.2 48.2 48.0 48.3 48.2 121.8 121.3 121.1 121.7 122.1 122.3 122.5 122.5 121.3 121.1 122.4 122.9 123.3 123.1 122.6 123.4 123.9 124.0 124.1 124.1 122.8 701.5 694.4 691.5 693.0 696.9 700.8 704.0 705.6 705.1 704.9 708.2 710.9 711.2 704.4 701.0 703.6 708.2 710.9 712.7 714.9 714.3 649.9 644.8 643.1 644.8 647.8 651.0 653.6 654.7 654.1 653.6 656.4 658.6 659.0 654.0 651.8 654.3 657.6 659.6 661.3 663.5 663.0 51.7 49.6 48.5 48.2 49.1 49.8 50.4 51.0 51.0 51.3 51.7 52.3 52.2 50.4 49.1 49.3 50.6 51.4 51.4 51.4 51.3 96.7 97.0 90.1 90.3 90.7 95.8 96.1 96.5 96.7 96.9 97.4 95.5 95.6 95.5 93.3 93.8 94.3 92.0 92.2 92.1 91.2 119.3 124.0 129.8 129.8 126.7 123.6 119.7 117.4 116.2 114.8 112.6 115.9 115.4 119.5 124.3 122.6 118.1 114.9 112.4 110.2 109.6 58.7 59.4 61.4 61.2 61.0 60.3 59.1 58.6 58.9 58.6 57.7 59.9 59.6 59.5 60.9 59.9 59.2 58.5 57.6 56.8 56.9 31.5 32.5 33.9 33.9 33.1 31.9 30.3 29.2 28.1 27.4 26.7 30.4 30.1 30.2 30.8 30.2 29.0 27.7 26.4 25.4 24.8 36.8 37.9 39.2 39.1 38.8 38.4 37.6 37.1 36.9 36.6 35.9 35.7 35.6 36.7 38.1 37.9 37.3 37.0 36.8 36.7 36.6 33.0 35.2 36.5 36.9 35.7 34.7 33.7 33.2 32.5 32.0 31.7 32.0 32.1 34.4 36.1 35.9 33.9 32.7 31.9 31.4 31.0 57.1 59.4 61.0 60.6 60.5 60.7 59.9 59.2 59.0 58.9 59.2 59.5 59.6 60.1 61.5 61.0 60.8 60.3 59.9 60.0 59.5 28.0 29.9 33.8 33.0 31.3 27.4 26.0 25.2 24.7 23.8 23.2 23.2 22.4 25.5 29.4 29.4 27.3 23.1 22.4 21.8 21.8 13.0 13.5 14.2 14.2 13.9 13.4 13.0 12.8 12.7 12.5 12.3 12.6 12.5 13.0 13.5 13.3 12.8 12.5 12.3 12.0 12.0 12.1 13.0 13.7 13.7 13.2 12.6 12.1 11.7 11.4 11.2 10.9 11.1 11.1 12.0 12.6 12.5 11.7 11.3 11.0 10.7 10.6 14.1 14.2 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.4 14.2 14.0 14.2 14.2 13.9 14.3 14.2 14.2 14.6 14.4 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.6 13.6 0.6 4.7 5.8 -0.1 -3.0 -3.1 -4.0 -2.3 -1.2 -1.4 -2.2 3.3 -0.5 4.0 4.8 -1.7 -4.5 -3.2 -2.5 -2.1 -0.7 2.0 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.7 5.9 1.5 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 7.0 9.3 13.1 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.3 5.8 6.6 4.8 6.3 7.1 6.2 9.8 12.5 5.9 6.0 5.8 5.2 5.3 6.5 5.2 3.5 6.2 6.0 8.5 7.6 7.6 6.3 5.6 4.3 6.7 6.3 5.0 4.0 6.2 6.5 9.0 7.3 6.0 5.7 5.2 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.1 1.9 2.6 2.5 2.8 3.0 2.7 3.5 3.4 3.2 2.7 2.8 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.6 27.9 27.1 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.0 25.7 25.4 25.0 24.7 24.6 24.6 23.4 22.8 22.6 22.3 22.8 23.1 23.6 23.2 23.3 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.5 WAGES EUR m 2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 2015 2014 Q2 15 July 15 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, nominal y-o-y growth rates, % TOTAL 1,540 1,537 1,542 0.1 -0.2 1.1 -0.5 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.6 Private sector activities (A-N; R-S) 1,495 1,488 1,502 0.8 0.7 1.5 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.3 0.4 0.8 Public service activities (OPQ) 1,675 1,689 1,662 -2.2 -2.3 0.3 -3.0 -1.6 -1.1 -1.1 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.2 Industry (B-E) 1,529 1,521 1,555 2.5 2.6 3.2 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.7 2.7 3.4 2.9 1.4 1.9 Trad. market services (GHI) 1,369 1,375 1,376 0.3 0.1 1.0 -0.1 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.9 1.3 0.2 1.4 Other market services (J-N; R-S) 1,686 1,666 1,669 -0.3 -1.3 -0.3 -1.5 -0.6 -1.1 -0.4 0.5 -0.5 -0.8 -0.5 -0.9 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 1,311 1,290 1,323 -1.1 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.0 3.0 0.4 -0.3 2.3 0.5 -0.7 0.0 B Mining and quarrying 2,128 2,003 2,176 3.6 -2.0 5.9 -6.8 -2.9 -2.4 2.9 8.3 10.7 2.0 -8.9 -4.8 C Manufacturing 1,483 1,482 1,504 2.5 2.8 3.3 2.9 3.0 3.6 3.9 2.8 3.1 3.2 2.1 2.3 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 2,340 2,257 2,454 3.3 3.0 2.6 2.8 3.6 -0.1 5.2 -1.1 6.5 -0.1 -4.4 1.7 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 1,475 1,461 1,521 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.1 1.0 1.3 -0.2 2.2 1.5 2.2 1.3 0.3 F Constrution 1,192 1,179 1,202 -2.5 -1.4 0.3 -2.1 0.1 -1.4 -0.1 0.7 -0.2 0.9 -0.7 -0.8 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 1,395 1,408 1,401 0.8 0.4 1.2 0.0 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.3 0.4 1.8 H Transportation and storage 1,466 1,463 1,489 -0.4 -0.2 1.1 0.2 -0.9 0.8 0.9 0.0 0.3 3.0 0.7 1.4 I Accommodation and food service activities 1,081 1,076 1,074 -0.8 -0.4 -0.2 -0.7 -0.6 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.6 -2.0 -2.2 -1.0 J Information and communication 2,074 2,064 2,095 -0.4 -1.4 0.1 -2.7 -1.1 -1.4 -2.8 1.7 0.8 0.8 2.6 -0.2 K Financial and insurance activities 2,212 2,274 2,262 1.1 0.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.3 -0.2 2.7 -0.2 2.3 3.9 1.9 L Real estate activities 1,489 1,453 1,458 -0.6 -0.3 -1.2 0.2 -0.6 0.2 -0.8 -1.1 -0.5 -2.4 -1.1 -1.6 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 1,715 1,701 1,718 -1.1 -2.4 1.1 -3.4 -1.5 -2.6 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.2 0.8 1.7 N Administrative and support service activities 1,016 1,006 1,018 0.7 0.0 2.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 3.3 2.7 2.6 1.2 0.3 -0.6 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 1,744 1,761 1,762 -1.8 -1.4 1.0 -2.1 -0.6 -0.6 -0.9 1.2 2.1 1.5 1.8 0.7 P Education 1,622 1,633 1,585 -3.3 -3.3 0.0 -4.2 -2.0 -1.3 -1.2 -0.1 0.7 0.7 0.5 -0.1 Q Human health and social work activities 1,676 1,690 1,665 -1.3 -2.0 -0.1 -2.3 -2.2 -1.4 -1.2 -0.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 1,614 1,605 1,572 -2.8 -3.0 -0.5 -3.8 -1.4 -1.0 -0.4 -0.5 0.2 -1.1 -0.5 -0.2 S Other service activities 1,376 1,338 1,336 -0.9 -0.4 -1.1 -0.7 -1.1 0.9 -1.4 -0.7 -0.3 -2.2 -1.9 -2.8 Source of data: SURS, calculations by IMAD. 2013 2014 2015 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0.3 0.7 0.7 1.6 0.4 1.0 0.5 1.7 1.7 0.7 1.6 1.1 1.0 1.4 0.2 -0.3 1.6 0.8 -0.2 1.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 1.4 2.7 0.9 1.5 0.8 2.0 2.0 0.5 1.8 1.3 1.0 1.7 0.0 -0.7 1.9 1.1 -0.3 1.7 0.6 -1.0 -1.5 -1.2 -1.2 -0.9 -0.2 -0.1 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.5 3.1 3.3 5.8 2.1 2.2 1.8 4.0 4.3 1.8 4.2 2.2 2.2 4.1 0.2 -0.1 4.2 2.8 0.4 2.6 1.6 0.1 2.0 0.9 0.9 1.7 0.8 -0.1 1.4 1.0 0.2 1.4 0.6 2.4 0.9 -0.1 0.1 0.4 1.5 0.8 1.8 1.2 -1.9 -1.0 -0.3 0.4 -1.4 1.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 -0.8 -0.9 0.8 -2.2 -0.8 -0.1 -2.1 0.7 -1.3 -2.0 0.6 -0.9 1.9 6.2 -1.7 2.3 0.9 2.1 -2.3 -0.8 1.8 1.5 3.6 2.3 -2.1 1.5 -0.9 0.3 -1.3 -2.0 -1.5 3.6 -0.4 -13.0 3.3 -8.1 19.1 -0.9 7.2 10.4 7.3 10.1 12.2 9.9 -0.2 0.9 5.5 -4.0 -20.3 -0.5 -1.0 -5.5 -7.7 1.8 4.4 3.9 4.0 5.3 2.4 2.5 1.8 4.3 4.6 1.1 3.7 2.7 2.5 4.4 0.3 1.1 4.8 3.0 0.6 3.2 1.2 -0.9 -5.9 1.8 11.9 2.3 -1.2 -0.9 -1.0 -0.1 10.3 9.5 -3.0 -0.1 2.9 -0.4 -9.8 -2.8 3.5 0.9 0.6 5.7 0.8 2.2 0.2 0.5 -1.3 1.1 0.8 4.8 2.7 -2.0 3.8 2.3 1.6 2.7 -0.2 1.0 3.0 1.0 -0.6 0.6 3.1 -2.5 -0.5 -1.4 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.2 -1.4 0.7 0.1 1.4 1.1 -0.9 -1.0 -0.1 -1.0 -1.8 0.3 -0.6 1.3 1.5 0.8 0.8 2.2 1.1 0.2 1.6 0.9 0.7 1.7 1.0 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.6 1.9 1.1 2.5 1.9 -2.7 3.0 1.3 0.8 0.5 -0.1 -0.5 0.6 0.9 -0.8 0.9 0.4 7.1 1.5 -0.5 1.6 1.0 2.0 0.8 1.4 1.0 -0.6 2.4 -0.1 1.4 0.5 0.0 -1.3 1.7 1.6 -0.5 0.6 -1.2 -2.7 -2.0 -2.4 -3.2 -1.0 -1.2 -0.4 -1.3 -1.7 -2.3 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -6.9 3.6 0.2 1.5 0.9 -0.2 1.7 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.8 0.5 6.5 -1.4 -0.7 1.5 1.6 -3.0 1.5 0.3 0.3 -1.1 2.8 4.3 0.8 0.3 1.0 -1.7 7.5 -1.0 0.5 8.5 -1.8 5.1 2.7 -1.6 4.8 1.1 0.4 -0.4 -1.1 -0.9 -0.5 -1.6 -1.6 -0.3 -0.1 -1.0 -0.4 -1.8 -2.7 -2.6 -1.1 -1.6 -0.5 -1.0 -1.6 -2.2 -0.9 -2.6 -3.0 -1.6 -0.3 2.3 -0.2 -1.7 3.4 2.9 -0.3 2.1 2.4 0.7 3.7 1.0 1.9 -0.4 2.1 2.0 0.9 0.2 2.1 -0.3 3.2 3.8 2.8 2.2 3.2 2.5 3.6 2.1 2.1 0.7 1.1 1.9 0.4 -0.1 0.5 -0.5 -2.0 0.8 -0.7 -1.0 -1.5 -1.5 -0.8 -0.3 0.8 0.9 1.9 1.6 1.9 2.8 0.8 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.0 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.5 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -1.5 -1.2 -0.5 -0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.4 -1.8 -1.3 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 0.7 0.3 1.2 0.4 1.1 0.5 -0.4 0.6 -0.2 0.2 0.9 0.2 -0.7 0.2 -0.5 -1.1 -0.4 0.8 -1.6 -0.7 -1.7 0.8 -1.0 1.5 0.0 -1.4 -2.6 0.7 -0.5 -1.4 0.3 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -1.5 -0.5 2.3 -1.6 -1.0 -1.7 -2.1 -0.7 0.8 0.3 -0.8 -0.3 -1.8 -1.7 -3.0 -2.8 -1.9 -1.1 -2.1 -3.4 -3.0 -2.6 PRICES AND INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS 2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 2015 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 8 9 10 11 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 2.6 1.8 0.2 1.5 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.6 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 2.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 4.1 3.6 -0.3 3.6 4.1 2.3 1.0 -0.6 -1.0 -0.7 -0.3 1.1 4.3 3.5 2.4 2.2 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 6.5 7.0 3.6 7.5 7.4 3.0 2.7 4.4 3.6 3.7 4.2 2.1 7.5 7.1 3.0 3.0 Clothing and footwear -0.2 0.2 -0.9 -1.2 1.0 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 -0.1 -1.6 -0.9 -1.8 0.1 1.7 0.3 0.1 Housing, water, electricity, gas 3.8 3.1 0.1 2.9 2.8 4.6 1.4 0.3 -0.3 -0.8 -1.6 -1.3 2.7 2.1 3.9 4.8 Furnishings, household equipment 0.1 -1.2 -1.2 -1.8 -1.2 -0.6 -0.9 -0.2 -2.0 -1.6 -1.8 -1.9 -0.8 -1.5 -0.4 -0.4 Medical, pharmaceutical products 0.4 -0.5 -0.1 -2.1 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.7 -0.9 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 Transport 3.3 0.3 0.2 -0.5 0.5 -0.4 -0.2 1.9 -0.1 -0.9 -4.5 -4.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.6 -0.3 Communications -2.4 -1.2 -1.9 -1.9 1.2 -0.1 -1.4 -0.5 -2.8 -2.8 -0.5 -1.3 2.5 1.1 1.6 -0.5 Recreation and culture 1.4 0.1 0.7 -0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 -0.1 -0.2 3.0 4.2 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.9 0.4 Education 2.9 2.6 0.1 4.6 1.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.1 -0.5 0.1 -0.3 Catering services 4.5 6.5 1.1 8.8 7.0 1.6 0.9 1.7 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.2 9.9 2.0 2.0 1.5 Miscellaneous goods & services 2.4 1.3 1.6 2.7 0.5 -0.5 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.7 1.0 HCPI 2.8 1.9 0.4 1.8 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 -0.5 -0.8 2.2 1.5 1.1 1.2 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) 2.0 1.6 1.0 1.4 1.9 1.2 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.4 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.4 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total 0.9 0.0 -0.6 0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.8 -1.1 -0.5 -0.1 0.1 0.6 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 Domestic market 1.0 0.3 -1.1 0.3 0.1 -0.3 -1.0 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 Non-domestic market 0.7 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 -0.6 -0.9 -0.6 -0.8 0.1 0.7 0.5 1.3 -0.2 -0.9 -0.9 -1.1 euro area 0.1 -0.4 -0.7 0.0 -0.7 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -0.6 0.8 0.7 1.0 -0.3 -1.0 -1.0 -1.5 non-euro area 2.0 0.3 1.1 0.7 -0.3 0.0 1.1 0.8 1.8 0.6 0.1 1.8 0.0 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 Import price indices 1.9 -0.4 -1.4 -0.5 -0.3 -1.5 -2.1 -1.4 -1.0 -1.2 -0.7 0.2 -0.4 -1.6 -1.5 -2.0 PRICE CONTROL,1 y-o-y growth rates, % Energy prices 12.7 0.2 -1.9 0.1 -0.7 -4.1 -4.6 -0.2 -1.5 -1.0 -9.0 -7.5 -1.3 -4.2 -5.9 -3.8 Oil products 13.0 1.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 -0.4 -0.9 4.2 1.7 -2.0 -11.9 -9.6 -0.3 -3.5 -2.4 -0.2 Transport & communications 1.6 11.3 11.1 8.6 17.3 10.9 14.6 15.8 7.3 7.3 1.1 0.0 17.3 17.3 17.3 8.0 Other controlled prices2 -0.6 -1.5 3.6 -2.9 -0.8 1.5 2.2 5.7 3.2 3.2 5.0 0.5 -0.8 -0.8 2.7 0.8 Direct control - total 9.2 1.2 0.5 0.5 1.0 -0.8 -1.0 2.6 0.4 -0.1 -7.5 -6.4 0.5 -1.6 -1.4 -1.0 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS3, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate,4 nominal -1.4 1.0 0.3 0.5 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.9 0.0 -1.0 -3.1 -3.7 2.0 1.3 1.4 1.6 Real (deflator HICP) -1.2 1.3 -0.1 0.6 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.9 -0.7 -1.4 -3.6 -4.8 2.6 1.4 1.3 1.6 Real (deflator ULC) -3.5 0.7 -2.8 0.1 0.8 3.2 -0.6 -1.9 -2.5 -6.2 -6.0 USD / EUR 1.2856 1.3282 1.3288 1.3066 1.3246 1.3611 1.3697 1.3712 1.3252 1.2492 1.1270 1.1047 1.3310 1.3348 1.3635 1.3493 Source of data: SURS, ECB; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 The structure of groups varies. Data for individual years are not fully comparable to those published previously. On 1 July 2007, the electricity market was liberalised. 2 After a longer period of unchanged prices, at the beginning of 2013, the Decree on the pricing of mandatory local public services in the field of environmental protection (Official Gazette of the RS, No. 87/2012) transferred the responsibility for approving price changes to local communities. 3 Change of the source for effective exchange rate series as of April 2012: a new source, ECB; 4 Harmonised effective exchange rate - a group of 20 EU Member States and 17 euro area countries; an increase in value indicates appreciation of the national currency and vice versa. 2013 2014 2015 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.7 -0.5 -0.7 -0.4 -0.3 2.2 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.0 -0.9 -1.0 -1.1 -1.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -1.2 -1.3 -0.3 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.8 3.0 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.4 4.9 6.0 3.5 3.5 3.8 3.7 3.4 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.1 1.8 0.6 1.1 1.0 -2.9 -2.2 -3.2 2.5 -0.6 -1.1 -1.3 -0.5 1.7 -1.2 -1.7 -2.6 -0.5 1.4 -0.6 -3.1 -2.4 -1.7 -1.2 0.0 -0.7 5.2 3.6 0.4 0.1 -0.9 0.4 1.3 0.2 -0.5 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -1.3 -1.5 -1.9 -1.3 -1.0 -1.3 -1.5 -1.9 -0.8 -0.9 -1.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.1 0.4 -0.7 -1.6 -2.3 -2.1 -2.3 -1.1 -1.3 -1.4 -1.9 -2.1 -2.3 -2.1 -1.4 -0.4 -0.4 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.6 -0.7 -1.0 -0.9 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 0.4 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 1.2 1.3 -0.3 0.1 -0.9 0.2 1.3 2.3 2.1 0.8 -0.2 -0.9 -0.4 -0.1 -2.2 -4.8 -4.6 -4.0 -5.1 -4.0 -4.2 -4.5 -4.8 -1.5 -1.6 -1.3 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 0.6 -2.0 -3.1 -3.4 -3.5 -2.4 -2.5 -2.6 1.2 0.1 -0.8 -0.5 -2.6 1.7 1.7 -0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 0.1 1.8 3.0 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.3 1.3 2.2 1.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.4 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.4 2.0 1.7 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.8 -0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.4 -3.2 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.5 -3.6 5.8 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.6 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8 -0.5 -0.5 -1.0 -0.9 -1.4 -1.1 -0.9 -0.6 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -1.1 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.2 -1.0 -1.2 -1.1 -1.0 -0.9 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.7 -0.6 -0.9 -0.4 -1.2 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.8 1.1 1.0 0.5 -0.4 -1.4 -1.2 -1.8 -1.2 -2.0 -1.4 -1.2 -1.2 -0.5 -0.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.6 1.2 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.0 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.3 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.9 1.3 2.2 1.8 0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.2 1.1 3.0 1.6 1.0 -0.2 -1.0 -0.9 -1.5 -2.0 -2.7 -1.9 -1.1 -1.2 -1.1 -0.8 -1.1 -0.5 -0.9 -2.3 -1.5 -0.9 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -2.5 -3.4 -5.7 -4.6 -2.9 0.9 1.3 0.2 -1.9 -2.9 0.5 0.7 -4.0 -9.8 -9.4 -7.6 -8.5 -6.7 -7.4 -9.0 -10.3 1.6 0.8 -2.5 -0.9 1.5 6.0 5.2 4.1 1.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -5.7 -13.2 -12.3 -10.2 -11.5 -8.4 -8.8 -10.9 -12.6 8.0 14.6 14.6 14.6 15.8 15.8 15.8 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.7 1.4 1.4 6.4 6.4 4.2 3.6 2.3 3.6 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.4 5.7 5.8 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.1 1.4 -0.1 0.1 -2.0 -1.2 0.6 3.6 3.6 1.9 0.0 -0.7 1.2 1.2 -2.6 -8.4 -7.9 -6.2 -7.4 -5.6 -6.2 -7.6 -8.6 1.5 0.9 0.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -0.8 -1.2 -2.2 -2.9 -4.2 -4.5 -3.6 -3.0 -3.2 -2.5 1.3 0.8 0.0 1.2 0.9 1.1 0.6 -0.1 -0.7 -1.2 -1.5 -1.3 -1.4 -2.6 -3.4 -4.7 -5.4 -4.8 -4.3 -4.2 -3.3 1.3704 1.3610 1.3659 1.3823 1.3813 1.3732 1.3592 1.3539 1.3316 1.2901 1.2673 1.2472 1.2331 1.1621 1.1350 1.0838 1.0779 1.1150 1.1213 1.0996 1.1139 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 2015 2013 Q2 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BPM6 methodology, EUR m Current account 930 2,023 2,607 585 474 479 505 666 703 733 425 759 141 143 190 178 Goods -81 708 1,210 249 233 33 281 299 309 320 349 429 149 -6 90 63 Exports 21,256 21,692 22,989 5,540 5,330 5,499 5,549 5,727 5,721 5,992 5,875 6,072 1,925 1,511 1,894 1,994 Imports 21,337 20,984 21,780 5,292 5,096 5,466 5,268 5,428 5,411 5,672 5,526 5,643 1,776 1,516 1,804 1,931 Services 1,509 1,761 1,736 486 533 341 321 443 578 395 407 477 189 199 146 133 Exports 5,106 5,314 5,555 1,305 1,552 1,315 1,177 1,382 1,595 1,401 1,254 1,445 532 541 479 448 Imports 3,597 3,553 3,819 819 1,018 974 856 939 1,018 1,006 847 969 343 342 333 315 Primary income -271 -172 -87 -62 -177 17 67 -7 -114 -33 -166 -39 -137 -13 -27 -14 Receipts 1,159 1,078 1,403 283 234 287 333 403 321 346 276 393 85 81 67 65 Expenditures 1,430 1,249 1,491 345 410 270 266 410 436 380 441 432 222 94 95 79 Secondary income -227 -275 -252 -88 -116 88 -165 -68 -70 51 -166 -107 -59 -38 -18 -3 Receipts 931 925 942 192 202 335 182 242 196 322 185 202 66 59 77 79 Expenditures 1,157 1,201 1,193 280 317 247 347 310 266 271 351 309 125 97 96 83 Capital account 41 71 -176 -13 -4 67 0 -39 13 -150 30 -28 13 -3 -14 19 Financial account -142 1,350 2,339 241 425 138 518 572 688 561 544 785 27 157 241 268 Direct investment -466 -47 -600 175 -103 -169 109 -545 -350 185 -359 96 -100 47 -50 -188 Assets -439 24 146 29 -124 46 131 45 -42 12 30 131 -33 -48 -43 10 Liabilities 27 71 746 -146 -21 214 21 590 308 -173 390 35 67 -95 7 198 Portfolio investment 220 -3,967 -3,968 -2,094 424 -2,167 -3,097 -1,221 80 270 624 1,672 130 89 204 27 Financial derivatives 89 32 -3 -13 10 15 -2 -9 2 7 22 7 6 2 2 5 Other investment 45 5,327 6,821 2,154 11 2,489 3,351 2,340 1,030 102 277 -1,014 -91 21 81 424 Assets 456 732 4,800 405 -308 -127 1,710 2,031 298 761 341 -1,571 -32 -268 -7 281 Other equity 155 152 82 68 2 68 12 70 1 -1 8 -2 1 1 0 70 Currency and deposits 38 564 5,037 180 -163 128 1,515 1,964 469 1,089 47 -1,487 -5 -35 -123 147 Loans 371 1 -300 171 -96 -46 -78 -48 -98 -75 -80 -101 -12 -81 -2 31 Insurance, pension schemes, and standardised guarantee schemes 28 -10 8 -18 0 -4 17 -3 -4 -2 12 0 0 0 0 -1 Trade credit and advances -49 19 -14 1 -43 -281 204 83 -51 -249 346 35 -16 -144 118 35 Other assets -88 6 -14 3 -8 7 40 -35 -19 0 8 -16 1 -8 -1 -1 Liabilities 411 -4,595 -2,021 -1,748 -319 -2,616 -1,640 -309 -732 659 64 -558 59 -289 -88 -144 Other equity 0 -29 3 0 0 -30 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Currency and deposits 1,019 -4,169 -831 -1,943 433 -2,748 -1,075 -54 21 278 -325 -498 545 -255 143 -244 Loans -938 -269 -1,239 63 -558 -91 -365 -297 -691 115 378 -72 -344 48 -262 10 Insurance, pension schemes, and standardised guarantee schemes 41 39 -54 31 -10 -2 -1 -40 -2 -10 -7 0 -3 -3 -3 -1 Trade credit and advances 285 -182 -141 73 -163 240 -214 81 -46 39 13 6 -136 -63 37 88 Other liabilities 5 16 240 28 -21 14 16 -2 -13 238 5 7 -2 -16 -3 3 Special drawing rights (SDR) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserve assets -31 5 89 19 83 -30 157 8 -74 -3 -20 23 82 -3 4 -1 Net errors and omissions -1,113 -743 -92 -330 -45 -408 13 -55 -28 -22 88 54 -127 17 65 71 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods 2,112 2,163 2,341 533 531 579 551 590 573 629 582 633 204 149 178 197 Intermediate goods 12,138 12,425 13,032 3,159 3,115 3,100 3,231 3,254 3,237 3,202 3,268 3,402 1,115 912 1,088 1,163 Consumer goods 6,811 6,960 7,676 1,824 1,672 1,791 1,773 1,874 1,887 2,134 2,002 2,036 604 449 619 623 Import of investment goods 2,402 2,573 2,760 667 564 696 647 696 635 796 657 709 204 155 205 221 Intermediate goods 14,005 13,635 13,541 3,448 3,282 3,448 3,284 3,364 3,366 3,403 3,452 3,516 1,165 987 1,130 1,237 Consumer goods 5,671 5,906 6,382 1,485 1,475 1,554 1,517 1,611 1,603 1,657 1,604 1,631 509 438 528 549 Source of data: BS, SURS. Note: The methodology of the Slovenian balance of payments and international investment position statistics follows the recommendations in the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual released by the International Monetary Fund. 2013 2014 2015 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1|2|3|4|5|6|7 89 212 136 54 315 285 186 196 307 14 381 349 104 280 123 -28 330 212 176 371 378 -6 -25 75 41 165 140 17 142 135 -31 205 180 45 96 91 38 220 35 132 262 243 1,866 1,639 1,795 1,756 1,998 1,951 1,845 1,930 2,034 1,546 2,142 2,167 1,998 1,828 1,814 1,868 2,194 1,947 1,952 2,173 2,131 1,872 1,664 1,721 1,715 1,832 1,811 1,828 1,788 1,899 1,576 1,936 1,987 1,953 1,731 1,722 1,830 1,974 1,912 1,820 1,911 1,888 116 92 88 82 151 155 141 147 191 222 165 130 129 136 138 98 171 191 138 148 223 414 454 388 355 434 461 449 472 553 542 501 478 418 504 396 392 465 490 459 496 580 297 362 301 272 283 305 309 325 362 320 337 348 289 369 258 295 294 299 321 348 357 -7 39 17 15 36 26 33 -66 37 -143 -8 8 -63 21 -70 -74 -22 24 -46 -17 -58 72 151 78 85 170 168 122 112 137 85 99 92 91 163 70 71 135 175 94 124 93 79 112 61 71 134 142 89 178 101 228 107 84 154 142 140 145 157 151 140 141 151 -14 105 -43 -84 -37 -37 -5 -26 -55 -34 20 31 -6 27 -37 -90 -39 -38 -48 -21 -30 63 192 63 60 59 74 94 73 59 43 94 120 81 121 56 67 62 68 61 73 75 77 87 106 144 97 111 99 100 114 77 75 89 88 95 93 157 101 106 109 94 105 6 42 1 1 -2 7 -29 -16 19 -17 10 20 52 -223 8 16 6 -2 -20 -6 49 23 -153 183 -99 434 180 156 237 302 -55 441 108 184 269 427 22 95 216 172 398 328 40 -20 95 -16 31 -103 -94 -348 78 -230 -198 30 39 116 -48 -53 -259 -126 -11 233 23 72 -36 81 -13 63 15 -7 37 92 -127 -8 125 1 -114 40 41 -51 25 52 54 47 33 -16 -14 3 32 118 87 385 14 104 190 95 -38 -230 88 94 208 151 63 -180 24 -1,823 -371 -408 -2,738 49 -946 -219 -56 -312 106 286 425 -662 506 193 302 129 1,051 328 293 -1,036 1 9 -1 -3 2 -10 2 -1 4 -3 0 10 -4 2 -6 20 7 3 1 4 -3 1,799 265 436 2,542 372 1,246 456 637 533 93 404 -343 772 -328 264 -171 185 -668 -158 -187 1,334 52 -459 538 1,099 74 1,177 328 526 271 -98 125 -234 598 398 481 -261 121 -995 -178 -399 1,100 -4 2 1 5 6 69 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -2 2 0 6 -1 -2 0 0 -7 -12 459 1,049 7 1,028 410 527 411 -4 62 -369 690 768 457 -343 -68 -863 -232 -392 1,087 13 -90 7 -26 -59 24 -22 -50 -69 1 -30 1 -32 -44 -8 -49 -22 -45 -18 -38 -4 -1 -1 6 6 6 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 4 4 4 0 0 0 0 2 -318 24 105 75 87 -75 71 -55 -109 114 101 -30 -321 19 128 199 -80 68 47 13 48 -41 41 -39 38 -29 16 -22 -14 15 -19 33 -30 -3 7 -1 2 -6 6 -17 4 -1,748 -725 102 -1,443 -299 -69 -128 -112 -262 -191 -278 109 -175 725 218 -90 -64 -327 -19 -212 -235 0 -30 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1,839 -665 311 -1,299 -88 -24 -6 -23 28 45 -52 16 -17 278 -84 -131 -110 -190 -201 -107 -33 -20 -81 13 -187 -191 39 -160 -176 -165 -256 -270 -52 -70 237 664 -224 -62 7 177 -257 -57 -1 -1 0 0 0 -13 -13 -13 -1 -1 -1 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 107 45 -267 57 -3 -58 14 126 -107 -3 63 87 -31 -18 -367 231 148 -167 25 148 -172 4 7 45 -14 -16 -14 37 -25 -17 23 -19 61 -54 231 7 36 -38 23 -20 4 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 -35 62 116 -21 -7 11 4 -2 -20 -52 -14 38 -27 24 -76 32 -43 12 54 9 -72 -407 45 -153 121 -112 -1 57 -25 -52 49 -261 27 213 295 34 -241 5 16 32 -99 197 185 168 179 204 203 183 204 207 161 205 226 202 201 169 192 221 204 212 217 N/A 1,069 869 1,079 1,018 1,135 1,117 1,062 1,075 1,156 893 1,187 1,195 1,099 909 1,025 1,058 1,185 1,143 1,092 1,166 N/A 599 569 559 569 645 634 583 657 662 475 750 729 707 698 608 626 768 614 657 764 N/A 241 234 187 203 257 244 224 229 230 182 223 267 272 257 193 210 254 239 230 239 N/A 1,208 1,003 1,112 1,051 1,121 1,109 1,139 1,117 1,188 974 1,204 1,200 1,195 1,008 1,094 1,135 1,223 1,210 1,129 1,176 N/A 516 490 474 517 526 547 552 513 551 472 580 593 554 511 494 533 577 536 527 568 N/A MONETARY INDICATORS AND INTEREST RATES 2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 221 233 263 233 233 233 233 232 231 232 233 233 239 239 Central government (S. 1311) 5,057 6,563 7,240 5,451 5,361 4,999 5,108 5,024 4,995 4,965 4,881 6,563 6,448 6,437 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 610 581 685 610 600 600 601 601 604 610 570 581 585 585 Households (S. 14, 15) 9,267 8,917 8,762 9,141 9,107 9,099 9,050 9,059 9,052 9,031 8,996 8,917 8,879 8,849 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 19,470 14,902 11,729 19,022 18,889 18,832 18,639 18,633 18,501 18,102 17,918 14,902 14,691 14,599 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 2,135 1,763 1,485 2,000 1,990 1,999 1,992 1,983 1,978 1,962 1,966 1,763 1,993 1,968 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 5,194 5,020 3,684 4,957 5,423 5,255 5,190 5,320 5,311 5,198 4,752 5,020 5,014 5,294 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 34,558 29,620 25,155 33,765 34,040 33,902 33,612 33,754 33,705 33,198 32,569 29,620 29,594 29,706 In foreign currency 1,309 1,097 950 1,236 1,235 1,223 1,203 1,192 1,177 1,152 1,144 1,097 1,090 1,075 Securities, total 5,862 7,026 7,469 6,177 6,091 5,657 5,762 5,669 5,554 5,513 5,366 7,026 6,921 6,944 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 29,582 27,051 25,843 29,665 30,497 29,943 30,228 30,184 30,194 30,091 29,645 27,051 27,255 27,501 Overnight 8,678 8,558 10,157 8,919 8,806 8,923 9,124 9,055 8,812 8,861 8,729 8,558 8,779 9,066 With agreed maturity -short-term 7,056 6,689 5,955 7,148 7,712 7,626 7,652 7,696 8,260 8,222 8,110 6,689 6,730 6,888 With agreed maturity -long-term 13,780 11,569 9,267 13,424 13,787 13,189 13,203 13,159 12,843 12,688 12,495 11,569 11,422 11,264 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 68 235 464 174 192 205 249 274 279 320 311 235 324 283 Deposits in foreign currency, total 552 487 510 520 548 536 520 541 521 506 511 487 493 488 Overnight 372 324 354 361 354 340 342 362 333 324 334 324 328 324 With agreed maturity -short-term 123 91 84 103 103 113 97 95 109 104 98 91 93 93 With agreed maturity -long-term 56 72 72 55 91 82 81 84 79 78 79 72 72 71 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.20 0.11 0.07 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.08 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 2.31 1.86 0.98 2.01 2.01 1.97 1.89 1.78 1.65 1.56 1.48 1.46 1.36 1.22 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 5.48 5.40 5.06 5.49 5.39 5.30 5.34 5.31 5.11 5.49 5.17 5.36 5.38 5.42 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 5.32 3.86 4.41 3.48 5.68 3.03 2.66 3.37 3.73 4.71 4.59 6.58 3.96 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operation^ 0.8^ 0.5^ 0.1^ 0.7^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.2^ 0.2^ 0.2^ 0.25 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates 0.570 0.221 0.210 0.209 0.201 0.210 0.221 0.226 0.223 0.226 0.223 0.275 0.292 0.288 6-month rates 0.830 0.336 0.309 0.324 0.299 0.321 0.336 0.342 0.340 0.342 0.327 0.373 0.396 0.387 LIBOR 3-month rates 0.066 0.021 0.013 0.020 0.018 0.018 0.020 0.018 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.022 0.018 6-month rates 0.146 0.080 0.066 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.072 0.075 0.083 0.081 Source of data: BS, EUROSTAT. 2014 2015 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1|2|3|4|5|6|7|8 245 209 227 228 229 230 230 237 246 263 265 282 445 642 838 1,045 1,299 1,488 6,476 6,154 6,262 6,296 6,459 6,512 6,581 6,936 7,010 7,240 7,443 7,502 7,163 7,368 7,380 7,387 7,449 7,445 584 582 577 582 594 596 606 611 618 685 654 631 633 633 633 635 634 631 8,853 8,850 8,835 8,810 8,808 8,814 8,813 8,807 8,791 8,762 8,842 8,802 8,834 8,826 8,847 8,836 8,821 8,812 14,544 14,531 14,429 14,039 13,867 13,764 13,586 12,603 12,511 11,729 11,823 11,726 11,674 11,569 11,493 11,396 11,190 11,137 1,962 1,945 1,929 1,921 1,881 1,858 1,873 1,665 1,654 1,485 1,463 1,455 1,642 1,519 1,511 1,466 1,470 1,405 4,818 5,012 4,863 3,896 4,347 4,108 3,732 4,037 3,915 3,684 3,657 3,696 3,479 3,353 3,365 3,008 3,181 3,443 29,154 29,298 29,017 27,756 28,005 27,645 27,220 26,425 26,191 25,155 25,232 25,179 24,885 24,707 24,661 24,240 24,316 24,469 1,046 1,036 1,025 1,019 1,010 1,011 994 986 973 950 1,059 1,003 983 957 955 937 904 874 7,028 6,731 6,845 6,763 6,933 6,987 6,968 7,240 7,326 7,469 7,576 7,615 7,539 7,566 7,574 7,512 7,487 7,495 27,034 27,187 27,067 26,577 27,060 26,869 26,318 26,492 26,309 25,843 25,930 25,800 25,389 25,884 25,894 25,715 25,974 26,073 8,979 9,278 9,390 9,582 10,236 10,138 9,870 10,329 10,398 10,157 10,731 10,947 10,842 11,200 11,458 11,533 12,080 12,278 6,893 7,215 7,088 6,768 6,876 6,928 6,720 6,477 6,250 5,955 5,708 5,610 5,350 5,302 5,217 5,032 4,896 4,743 10,852 10,389 10,252 9,875 9,585 9,368 9,265 9,172 9,155 9,267 9,078 8,838 8,762 8,916 8,707 8,574 8,411 8,513 310 305 337 352 363 435 463 514 506 464 413 405 435 466 512 576 587 539 490 496 496 508 510 516 538 528 535 510 566 604 601 585 612 620 616 616 333 335 336 350 345 354 354 348 353 354 401 447 442 433 464 469 468 475 90 94 92 90 96 92 115 110 110 84 86 77 81 75 71 77 73 69 67 67 68 68 69 70 69 70 72 72 79 80 78 77 77 74 75 72 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.03 1.15 1.07 1.04 1.00 0.93 0.89 0.85 0.81 0.74 0.66 0.58 0.51 0.46 0.39 0.37 0.36 0.31 0.33 5.26 5.58 5.23 4.84 5.2 5.01 5.09 4.65 4.72 4.38 4.17 4.85 3.34 3.49 3.5 3.39 3.38 3.36 4.21 6.63 5.51 1.53 5.05 2.82 4.66 3.07 4.5 3.89 2.40 3.39 4.58 1.9 0.25 0.2^ 0.2^ 0.1^ 0.1^ 0.1^ 0.0^ 0.0^ 0.0^ 0.0^ 0.0^ 0.0^ 0.0^ 0.0^ 0.0^ 0.0^ 0.0^ 0.05 0.305 0.330 0.325 0.241 0.205 0.192 0.097 0.083 0.081 0.081 0.063 0.048 0.027 0.006 -0.010 -0.014 -0.019 -0.028 0.407 0.430 0.417 0.333 0.305 0.292 0.200 0.184 0.182 0.176 0.152 0.126 0.097 0.074 0.057 0.049 0.049 0.044 0.021 0.017 0.016 0.012 0.013 0.020 0.008 0.008 0.006 -0.020 -0.466 -0.889 -0.802 -0.812 -0.791 -0.782 -0.762 -0.729 0.078 0.075 0.068 0.069 0.072 0.073 0.059 0.057 0.053 0.023 -0.403 -0.773 -0.707 -0.727 -0.704 -0.711 -0.710 -0.681 PUBLIC FINANCE 2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 Q^ Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 12 1 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS-IMF methodology), current prices, EUR m GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 14,999.1 14,728.2 15,492.0 3,495.0 3,733.1 4,080.2 3,634.1 3,905.1 3,686.5 4,266.2 3,635.6 3,971.9 1,604.1 1,231.9 Current revenues 14,030.6 13,637.4 14,377.0 3,293.1 3,510.9 3,648.8 3,409.9 3,695.2 3,501.4 3,770.4 3,413.4 3,756.1 1,293.5 1,199.3 Tax revenues 13,118.3 12,648.4 13,191.6 3,107.4 3,188.1 3,406.0 3,147.0 3,317.0 3,237.5 3,490.1 3,252.4 3,524.1 1,196.5 1,135.8 Taxes on income and profit 2,656.6 2,137.4 2,385.9 510.9 442.5 606.9 595.6 686.3 466.3 637.7 601.7 786.4 229.1 207.0 Social security contributions 5,244.1 5,127.2 5,272.5 1,283.4 1,261.3 1,317.6 1,303.9 1,302.5 1,300.7 1,365.3 1,339.5 1,353.4 469.7 430.5 Taxes on payroll and workforce 25.6 23.4 20.2 6.1 5.5 6.3 4.8 5.3 4.7 5.4 4.5 4.9 2.5 1.7 Taxes on property 233.9 254.1 244.2 67.8 91.3 70.8 19.2 29.3 100.3 95.4 26.9 41.7 15.3 6.8 Domestic taxes on goods and services 4,876.1 5,027.4 5,191.2 1,224.7 1,357.0 1,406.5 1,170.9 1,300.1 1,350.5 1,369.6 1,246.0 1,322.2 485.0 478.9 Taxes on international trade & transactions 82.5 77.5 77.7 22.9 18.2 17.0 19.1 19.0 18.5 21.1 21.3 21.5 5.1 5.0 Other taxes -0.6 1.3 -0.2 -8.4 12.4 -19.2 33.5 -25.7 -3.5 -4.5 12.5 -6.0 -10.2 6.0 Non-tax revenues 912.3 989.0 1,185.4 185.7 322.8 242.7 262.9 378.2 264.0 280.3 161.1 232.0 97.0 63.5 Capital revenues 62.5 67.1 51.4 13.1 12.8 30.4 11.6 10.5 13.1 16.2 10.8 16.2 20.2 3.8 Grants 9.2 32.7 18.9 2.7 14.7 2.4 1.3 11.0 4.3 2.2 2.4 1.7 1.6 0.6 Transferred revenues 51.7 52.7 4.5 0.4 50.9 0.9 1.4 0.4 0.5 2.3 1.2 0.3 0.2 0.7 Receipts from the EU budget 845.1 938.4 1,040.3 185.6 143.8 397.7 209.9 188.0 167.2 475.2 207.8 197.5 288.5 27.4 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TOTAL EXPENDITURES 16,125.7 16,286.4 16,751.2 4,011.6 3,846.2 4,291.2 4,290.2 3,957.1 4,009.3 4,494.6 4,290.6 3,981.1 1,591.3 1,439.9 Current expenditures 6,813.5 6,838.4 7,042.1 1,819.0 1,496.7 1,679.8 1,923.6 1,692.4 1,581.3 1,844.8 1,969.7 1,678.5 582.1 624.9 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3,727.7 3,616.7 3,610.4 936.6 871.2 900.4 919.5 908.4 883.3 899.2 926.1 904.5 319.8 299.6 Expenditures on goods and services 2,373.0 2,238.9 2,232.3 565.9 526.7 587.2 531.7 538.8 546.9 614.8 500.2 558.0 231.1 176.4 Interest payments 647.9 840.1 1,097.4 295.2 77.8 148.0 451.8 221.9 131.0 292.6 497.2 178.4 2.3 141.9 Reserves 64.9 142.6 102.1 21.3 20.8 44.2 20.5 23.3 20.1 38.2 46.2 37.6 28.9 7.0 Current transfers 7,687.0 7,671.3 7,591.9 1,893.7 1,922.4 1,906.6 1,984.3 1,848.4 1,883.4 1,875.8 1,936.5 1,864.1 660.9 697.0 Subsidies 502.7 519.5 467.4 111.9 77.5 139.6 205.5 80.3 71.3 110.2 201.2 79.1 56.6 119.7 Current transfers to individuals and households 6,384.2 6,343.1 6,335.0 1,585.9 1,626.0 1,554.5 1,561.9 1,600.0 1,621.1 1,552.1 1,564.3 1,592.9 523.9 514.9 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 741.0 734.2 714.3 185.2 185.7 205.3 204.5 147.7 173.2 188.8 156.5 180.5 78.8 56.5 Current transfers abroad 59.0 74.4 75.2 10.7 33.2 7.2 12.3 20.4 17.8 24.7 14.5 11.6 1.6 6.0 Capital expenditures 915.0 1,031.8 1,444.4 146.3 259.7 484.2 188.1 269.8 414.6 572.0 175.3 285.0 236.4 68.6 Capital transfers 319.9 319.5 270.0 52.0 69.3 155.6 31.5 50.7 67.9 119.8 37.9 58.7 84.5 1.7 Payments to the EU budget 390.3 425.5 402.9 100.5 98.0 65.0 162.7 95.9 62.2 82.1 171.1 94.8 27.3 47.7 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -1,126.6 -1,558.2 -1,259.2 -516.6 -113.1 -211.0 -656.1 -52.0 -322.8 -228.3 -654.9 -9.3 12.8 -208.0 Source of data: Bulletin of Government Finance. Note: In line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the general government are not consolidated. 2014 2015 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1|2|3|4|5|6|7 1,196.6 1,205.6 1,286.1 1,337.4 1,281.7 1,175.8 1,166.8 1,343.9 1,382.2 1,317.0 1,569.3 1,312.5 1,075.1 1,248.0 1,439.8 1,197.0 1,335.1 1,310.2 1,140.1 1,070.6 1,185.4 1,279.3 1,230.5 1,130.0 1,147.2 1,224.2 1,260.4 1,185.2 1,325.1 1,276.7 998.9 1,137.9 1,327.0 1,151.1 1,278.0 1,199.4 994.4 1,016.8 1,116.3 1,072.3 1,128.4 1,029.8 1,058.3 1,149.4 1,157.6 1,117.5 1,216.2 1,221.6 945.9 1,084.9 1,272.4 1,036.3 1,215.5 1,087.8 199.3 189.3 241.3 185.7 259.4 75.3 191.5 199.5 197.0 204.1 236.6 207.6 202.6 191.5 323.0 187.7 275.7 81.3 445.0 428.5 435.7 432.5 434.2 436.8 432.9 431.1 438.2 439.1 488.0 454.6 440.4 444.5 455.0 449.0 449.4 456.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 2.1 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.7 1.8 6.6 5.9 11.9 6.0 11.4 23.6 37.5 39.2 27.6 40.4 28.2 11.1 10.0 5.8 9.0 11.9 20.9 25.5 329.6 362.4 444.9 439.2 416.0 489.1 383.2 478.2 485.4 421.5 462.8 504.8 361.2 379.9 482.1 375.3 464.8 517.4 7.2 6.9 6.6 5.7 6.7 6.2 5.9 6.3 6.9 6.7 7.6 5.9 6.2 9.1 8.0 6.7 6.8 7.0 5.3 22.2 -25.9 1.4 -1.2 -3.0 5.9 -6.4 0.9 4.1 -9.1 36.0 -76.0 52.5 -6.5 4.2 -3.7 -1.4 145.7 53.8 69.1 207.0 102.2 100.3 88.9 74.8 102.8 67.7 108.9 55.1 53.0 53.0 54.6 114.9 62.6 111.6 4.4 3.4 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.7 3.9 4.4 4.1 4.0 9.8 3.3 3.7 3.8 4.5 4.2 7.5 11.1 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.5 9.5 0.3 0.2 3.8 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.3 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 19.1 52.0 130.5 96.6 53.8 37.5 40.6 15.3 111.3 115.6 126.3 233.3 32.0 71.6 104.1 107.1 41.3 49.1 80.2 1,474.7 1,375.6 1,335.2 1,326.2 1,295.8 1,411.8 1,279.4 1,318.2 1,500.5 1,389.9 1,608.1 1,422.5 1,402.5 1,465.5 1,335.7 1,296.4 1,348.8 1,406.7 672.0 626.6 622.5 536.0 533.9 516.5 524.0 540.7 686.6 568.3 591.0 637.9 619.2 712.6 573.6 546.4 558.3 529.8 345.1 274.9 287.5 290.5 330.4 299.5 294.0 289.8 294.6 293.1 311.2 316.7 303.8 305.6 287.1 290.4 326.9 296.3 184.2 171.1 183.3 165.5 190.0 207.9 169.9 169.1 179.6 182.4 253.6 153.8 146.7 199.7 179.7 165.4 212.8 199.5 135.9 173.9 143.0 73.3 5.7 3.4 53.2 74.4 204.6 84.5 3.5 142.8 159.3 195.2 97.8 73.4 7.1 22.5 6.8 6.7 8.8 6.8 7.7 5.8 6.9 7.4 7.8 8.3 22.7 24.7 9.4 12.1 9.0 17.2 11.4 11.6 652.4 634.9 590.1 644.3 614.0 717.7 580.1 585.6 599.7 618.5 657.9 676.1 619.9 640.4 614.1 617.0 633.0 728.3 65.7 20.2 31.9 33.2 15.1 31.0 18.1 22.2 23.9 43.8 42.6 78.3 103.0 19.9 10.9 29.5 38.7 17.8 524.3 522.8 531.0 543.8 525.1 613.3 502.8 505.0 513.3 517.6 521.3 515.8 516.7 531.7 542.5 520.8 529.7 636.7 57.4 90.7 25.1 55.8 66.8 59.3 56.7 57.1 59.2 54.3 75.3 75.7 -3.8 84.6 56.0 62.1 62.4 71.4 5.0 1.3 2.0 11.4 7.0 14.0 2.4 1.3 3.3 2.7 18.7 6.3 4.0 4.2 4.6 4.8 2.2 2.4 59.1 60.4 75.0 92.5 102.3 129.7 131.4 153.4 151.2 141.8 285.2 63.9 43.5 67.9 93.1 83.3 108.7 115.9 9.4 20.4 14.8 20.3 15.6 22.6 22.8 22.4 44.3 31.0 40.9 10.3 17.0 10.6 20.3 14.4 24.1 16.0 81.7 33.3 32.7 33.1 30.0 25.2 21.0 16.0 18.7 30.3 33.1 34.3 102.9 33.9 34.7 35.4 24.8 16.6 -278.0 -170.0 -49.1 11.2 -14.1 -236.0 -112.6 25.7 -118.4 -72.8 -38.8 -110.0 -327.4 -217.5 104.1 -99.5 -13.7 -96.5 Acronyms Acronyms in the text AJPES - Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, BoS - Bank of Slovenia, CPI - Consumer Price Index, DDPO - Corporate income tax/CIT, EC - European Commission, ECB - European Central Bank, EIA - Energy Information Administration, EMU - European Monetary Union, ESA-2010 - European System of Accounts 2010, ESI - Economic Sentiment Indicator, ESS - Employment Service of Slovenia, EU - European System of Integrated Social Protection Statistics, EUR - Euro, EUROSTAT - Statistical Office of the European Union, GDP - Gross domestic product, HICP-Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, ICT - Information and Communication Technology, IMAD - Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, MF - Ministry of Finance, NEER - Nominal Effective Exchange Rate, NFI - Non-monetary Financial Institutions, OECD - Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, OI - core inflation, PDII - Pension and Disability Insurance Institute, PMI - Purchasing Managers Index, REER - Real Effective Exchange Rate, RS - Republic of Slovenia, SITC - Standard International Trade Classification, SKD - Standard Classification of Activities, SRE - Statistical Register of Employment, SURS - Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, TSA - Treasury Single Account, UL - Official Gazette , USD - US Dollar, VAT - value added tax, ZZZS - The Health Insurance Institute of Slovenia. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities A - Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B - Mining and quarrying, C - Manufacturing, 10 - Manufacture of food products, 11 - Manufacture of beverages, 12 - Manufacture of tobacco products, 13 - Manufacture of textiles, 14 - Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15 - Manufacture of leather and related products, 16 - Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17 - Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18 - Printing and reproduction ofrecorded media, 19- Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, 20- Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21 - Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22 - Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23 - Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24 - Manufacture of basic metals, 25 - Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26 - Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27 - Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28 - Manufacture of machinery and equipmentn.e.c.,29- Manufacture ofmotor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers,30- Manufacture ofother transport equipment, 31 - Manufacture of furniture, 32 - Other manufacturing, 33 - Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D-Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply,E-Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediationactivities, F - Construction, G - Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H - Transportation and storage, I - Accommodation and food service activities, J - Information and communication, K - Financial and insurance activities, L - Real estate activities, M - Professional, scientific and technical activities, N - Administrative and support service activities, O - Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P - Education, Q - Human health and social work activities, R - Arts, entertainment and recreation, S - Other service activities, T - Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods- and services- producing activities of households for own use, U - Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AT-Austria, BA-Bosnia and Herzegovina, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, HR-Croatia, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IE-Ireland, IL-Israel, IT-Italy, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RS-Republic of Serbia, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America. Slovenian economic mirror September, No. 9, Vol. XXI