.^'IMAD O £ U fü O E o o Ü) aS o cB fN to u| 13 O Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3826 No. 7-8 / Vol. XXI / 2015 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Responsible Person: Boštjan Vasle, MSc, Director Editor in Chief: Barbara Ferk, MSc Authors of Current Economic Trends (listed alphabetically): Jure Brložnik, Janez Dodič, Marjan Hafner, MSc, Matevž Hribernik, Slavica Jurančič, Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič, Tanja Kosi Antolič, PhD, Janez Kušar, Jože Markič, PhD, Tina Nenadič, MSc, Mitja Perko, MSc, Jure Povšnar, Ana T. Selan, MSc, Dragica Šuc, MSc Author of Selected Topics: Valerija Korošec, PhD (Life satisfaction) Editorial Board: Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Aleš Delakorda, MSc, Lejla Fajič , Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, Boštjan Vasle, MSc Translator: Marija Kavčič Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Ema Bertina Kopitar Print: SURS Circulation: 80 copies © The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the spotlight................................................................................................................................................................3 Current economic trends..............................................................................................................................................5 International environment...............................................................................................................................................7 Economic developments in Slovenia.............................................................................................................................8 Labour market..................................................................................................................................................................13 Prices..................................................................................................................................................................................14 Balance of payments.......................................................................................................................................................16 Financial markets.............................................................................................................................................................18 Public finance....................................................................................................................................................................19 Boxes Box 1: Gross domestic product - Q2 2015.....................................................................................................................9 Box 2: Road and rail freight transport - Q1 2015.............................................................................................................12 Selected topics Life satisfaction.................................................................................................................................................................25 Statistical appendix.....................................................................................................................................................27 On January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev.2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia, the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, which includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses, came into force on the mentioned date. In the Slovenian Economic Mirror, all analyses are based on the SKD 2008, except when the previous SKD 2002 classification is explicitly referred to. More general information about the introduction of the new classification is available on the SURS website http://www.stat.si/eng/ skd nace 2008.asp. All seasonally adjusted data in the Economic Mirror are calculations by IMAD. In the spotlight Euro area GDP growth in the first half of 2015 was in line with expectations. In the second quarter, GDP increased by 0.3% (seasonally adjusted) and was 1.2% higher than in the same period of 2014. Most confidence indicators for the euro area indicate a continuation of the recovery in the second half of the year: the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) reached the highest value since 2011 and the PMI continues to indicate positive trends. The lower value of the Ifo Economic Climate Index, on the other hand, indicates uncertainty about the developments in the second half of the year. Uncertainty is also reflected in the projections by the ECB, which lowered slightly its economic growth forecasts for the euro area at the beginning of September (2015: by 0.1 percentage points to 1.4%; 2016: by 0.2 percentage points to 1.7%). Favourable economic developments in Slovenia continued in the second quarter; in addition to exports, a significant contribution to GDP growth was also made by private consumption. GDP rose by 0.7% (seasonally adjusted) and was 2.6% higher year-on-year. Despite a further moderation in year-on-year growth, exports remained the main driver of the recovery, which was reflected in further growth in value added in manufacturing. Household consumption picked up more notably this year with the improvement in the labour market situation and the relatively high value of the consumer confidence indicator. Purchases of durable goods increased further, and purchases of other goods also rose for the first time in a long period. In contrast, construction investment has been decreasing for as long as three quarters after its strong growth since mid-2013. In the first half of this year, real GDP reached 95% of the average level in 2008 (the lowest level in 2013:90.6%). In the second quarter, the number of employed persons rose further; the number of registered unemployed was down again in August. In the first half of the year, the number of employed persons was up in most activities of the private sector, which also recorded higher indicators of economic activity than in the same period last year. The number of registered unemployed is nevertheless falling slightly more slowly than at the beginning of the year owing to a smaller outflow into employment. At the end of August, 107,935 persons were registered as unemployed, 6.0% fewer than in August 2014. Average gross earnings per employee rose further in the second quarter (by 0.3%, seasonally adjusted), but their year-on-year growth in the first half of the year (0.5%) was half lower than in the same period of 2014. This is explained by modest growth in private sector earnings, which is, amid a higher number of workers with relatively low earnings, largely the result of changes in employment structure. In August consumer prices were down year-on-year again. The continuation of year-on-year deflation (-0.3%) was again the result of lower prices of liquid fuels due to the year-on-year fall in euro prices of oil on global markets. For quite a while, deflationary movements have also been impacted by lower prices of other goods, mainly durables. Food prices remain up year-on-year owing to higher prices of unprocessed food. Growth in service prices has slowed notably in recent months. Core inflation remains lower than in the euro area, reflecting lower growth in both service prices and prices of non-energy goods. Domestic non-banking sectors continue to deleverage at Slovenian banks. In the first seven months of 2015, enterprises repaid less while NFIs repaid more than in the same period of 2014. Meanwhile, loans to households (where new lending in the form of housing loans is on the increase) and government loans have expanded this year. The growth of household deposits is slowing year-on-year as a result of low interest rates. The low lending activity of Slovenian banks is accelerating the decline in net interest receipts of the banking system and thus slowing the reduction in the share of non-performing claims. This share has stabilised at around 11.5% in recent months, but its further reduction will require higher lending activity and an increase in the share of new, high-quality claims. The general government deficit (EUR 664 m) in the first half of the year was slightly lower than in the same period of last year. This was the result of increased tax revenues and social contributions related to the improvement in labour market conditions, better performance of companies in 2014, the strengthening of private consumption, and government measures. The main factors in 2015 growth remain the corporate income tax and the value added tax. Expenditure rose less than revenue. Among expenditure categories, current expenditure and investment expenditure were up. ■o £ Ol E o £ 0 u 01 £ 01 3 U International environment In the first half of the year, GDP growth in the euro area was in line with expectations. In the second quarter, it slowed slightly; GDP increased by 0.3% (seasonally adjusted) and was 1.2 % higher than in the same period of 2014. In Germany, Slovenia's largest trading partner, a significant contribution to growth came from foreign demand and growth in domestic consumption, while investment, particularly in construction, was down again. In France, the low growth in household consumption, the main engine of the recovery in the last few quarters, came as a negative surprise. Higher growth than in EMU countries1 was recorded by some non-euro area Member States (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and the United Kingdom). The recovery also continued in the US, while Russia saw the largest decline in GDP since 2009. Figure 1: Economic growth in selected main trading partners Q3 14 ■Q4 14 ■Q1 15 ■Q2 15 -Q2 15 EC forecast Source: Eurostat, EC Forecast (May 2015). Most confidence indicators for the euro area indicate a continuation of the recovery in the second half of the year: the Economic Sentiment Indicator for the euro area (ESI) rose slightly in the last two months, reaching the highest value since 2011. With higher indices for manufacturing and service sectors, the composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), continues to indicate positive trends. Uncertainty about possible future developments is suggested by a decline in the Ifo Economic Climate Index for the euro area, which fell largely owing to deteriorated expectations regarding the recovery in the second half of the year. At the beginning of September, the ECB lowered slightly its projections for economic growth in the euro area (2015: by 0.1 percentage points to 1.4%; 2016: by 0.2 percentage points to 1.7%), while Consensus forecasts have not changed much in the past few months. In the second quarter, credit standards for enterprises and households in the euro area improved; despite the increased loan demand, the net flow of loans declined. According to the ECB Euro Area Lending Survey,2 credit standards for enterprises improved again in the second quarter but less than in previous quarters. With the improvement on financial markets, this was reflected particularly in the narrowing of the interest margins on average loans. The main reasons for the improvement were higher competition between banks and their greater liquidity, which was also a consequence of non-standard measures of the ECB. The demand for loans to enterprises also continues to rise, while the net flow of loans to euro area enterprises was negative, despite the easing of credit conditions. The share of rejected applications for loans rose, which is, according to the ECB, chiefly the result of the banks' unwillingness to take new and large risks. Banks also reported an easing of credit standards on all types of household loans and a significant increase in the demand for household loans. The ECB data show that the net flow of household loans rose slightly in the second quarter. Figure 2: The ECB's Euro Area Bank Lending Survey ^^m Credit standards for loans to enterpr. over the past 3 months (left axis) -Credit standards for loans to enterpr. over the next 3 months (left axis) ----Demand for loans to enterprises over the next 3 months (right axis) -Demand for loans to enterprises over the past 3 months (rigth axis) 40 dj "c 40 a. e5 U ■ -10 -40 -40 IS a a a a a Source: ECB. Note: A positive figure indicates an improvement. The situation on international government bond markets remains relatively stable. After the increase in June, 10-year government bond yields of most euro area countries declined in the last two months. In August the yield to maturity of the Slovenian euro bond dropped slightly relative to July, averaging around 2%. 1 With the exception of Spain. 2 The survey included 137 banks in the euro area. 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 Figure 3: 10-year government bond yields 18 16 14 2 m m LO LO ji 5Ž 5Ž ji ji Sourcer: Bloomberg. The ECB kept its interest rates unchanged in July; its asset purchase programme proceeds smoothly. As stated by the ECB, the monetary policy measures3 are implemented in line with expectations and remain focused on ensuring price stability. The monetary policy stance remains accommodative. Prices of Brent crude oil slumped in the last two months, averaging around USD 48 per barrel in August. According to the IEA, the strong price decline in recent months has mainly been due to the surplus supply on the oil Figure 4: Prices of Brent crude oil and the USD/EUR exchange rate -Price in EUR (left axis) -Price in USD (left axis) -USD to EUR exchange rate (right axis) 130 120 110 100 90 J^ iJ^ 80 3 70 Q 3 60 50 40 30 1,50 1,45 1,40 1,35 1,30 1,25 1,20 1,15 1,10 1,05 1,00 Source: ECB, EIA; calculations by IMAD. 3 In the period from the beginning of the asset purchase to the end of July, the ECB bought around EUR 249 bn of euro area countries' government bonds. market and uncertain prospects for economic growth in some of the world's largest oil consumers (such as China). As the euro gained value against the US dollar, the oil price expressed in euros also dropped sharply, reaching its six-year low in August. According to IMF data, July saw a further decline in dollar prices of non-energy commodities, particularly metals. Table 1: Indicators related to the international environment average change, in %* 2014 VII 15 VIII 15 VIII 15/ VII 15 VIII 15/ VIII 14 I-VIII 15/ I-VII 14 Brent USD, per barrel 98.93 56.56 46.58 -17.6 -54.2 -47.8 Brent EUR, per barrel 74.58 51.72 42.97 -16.9 -44.6 -34.6 EUR/USD 1.329 1.100 1.114 1.3 -16.3 -18.3 3-month EURIBOR, in % 0.209 -0.019 -0.028 -0.9 -26.9 -26.3 Source: EIA, ECB Euribor; calculations by IMAD. Note: * in Euribor change in basis points. Economic developments in Slovenia After the interruption of growth in the first quarter, real merchandise exports increased again in the second quarter, while imports fell slightly (seasonally adjusted).4 Real merchandise exports rose by 0.7%, mainly owing to increased exports to outside the EU. In the first half of the year, they were up 6.3% year-on-year (in the same period of last year: 4.7%), for the most part owing to larger exports of motor vehicles, which were mainly due to last year's beginning of the production of two new car models. A significant contribution to growth was also made by the metal industry.5 Real merchandise imports, which are slightly more volatile at the quarterly level, fell Figure 5: Merchandise trade - real 5,900 a a Source: SURS. 4 According to the National Accounts Statistics. 5 An estimate based on detailed data according to the external trade statistics available for the first five months of this year. Box 1: Gross domestic product - Q2 2015 In the second quarter, favourable economic developments continued; in addition to exports, a significant contribution to growth was also made by private consumption. GDP rose by 0.7% (seasonally adjusted) and was 2.6% higher year-on-year. Although their year-on-year growth (5.5%) slowed further, exports remained the main driver of the recovery, which was also reflected in further growth in value added in manufacturing. Private consumption, having started to recover last year after two years of significant decline, is rising more notably this year. This was already indicated by household consumption indicators, particularly the improvement in the situation on the labour market, where the year-on-year increase in employment (1.6%) was the largest since 2008, and the improvement in the consumer confidence indicator, which was close to the highest level so far. The year-on-year 1.7% increase in household spending was underpinned by increasing purchases of durable goods, although spending on other goods (which account for the largest part of private consumption) also rose more visibly for the first time in a long period. Against the background of the favourable developments in private consumption and domestic production activity, the second quarter recorded further year-on-year growth in value added in distributive trades, transport and other service activities. Together with the good tourist season, higher household spending also had a favourable impact on growth in value added in accommodation and food service activities. After increasing strongly since mid-2013, construction investment has not recorded growth for as long as three quarters, which is also reflected in a renewed year-on-year decline in value added in the construction sector. Private investment is otherwise picking up gradually, in our estimation, but its growth remains weak. Figure 6: GDP level in Slovenia and its main trading partners —•—Slovenia -Germany -------France ---Italy -Austria -------Croatia 108 106 104 102 TT c^ 100 98 96 Ü 94 92 o !S 90 88 86 cS O O O Source: Eurostat; calculationa by IMAD. Figure 7: Expenditure structure of change in GDP, Slovenia Private consumption Government consumption Gross fixed capital formation llililll Chang. in invent. and valuables Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services -Real GDP growth (right axis) O O Source: SURS. Table 2: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia in % 2014 VI 15/ V 15 VI 15/ VI 14 I-VI 15/ I-VI 14 Merchandise exports, real1 6.6 1.03 9.8 4.8 Merchandise imports, real1 3.6 5.23 6.6 4.3 Services exports, nominal2 4.1 2.03 6.8 5.8 Services imports, nominal2 7.4 -0.13 6.3 0.8 Industrial production, real 2.2 -0.63 3.14 4.54 -manufacturing 4.3 -0.33 4.14 5.64 Construction -value of construction put in place, real 19.5 -1.73 -12.1 -5.8 Real turnover in retail trade 0.0 -0.83 1.8 1.1 Nominal turnover in market services (without trade) 2.7 0.83 4.5 3.3 Sources: BoS, Eurostat, SURS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1External trade statistics; deflated by IMAD, 2balance of payments s 3seasonally adjusted, 4working-day adjusted data. by 0.5% in the second quarter. As a result of their growth in the middle of 2014 and the beginning of 2015, they were up 5.8% year-on-year in the first half of 2015 (in the same period of 2014: 2.0%), mainly on account of higher imports of production goods and transport equipment. Exports of services continued to grow in the second quarter; imports also rose (seasonally adjusted).6 Real services exports increased 0.9%. In the first half of the year, they were 3.9% higher than in the same period of 2014. This year's growth is mainly underpinned by higher exports of travel and transport services. Imports of services were up 0.6%; in the first half of the year, they were down 0.2%, chiefly owing to the high base from the beginning of last year. 6 According to the National Accounts Statisticts. Figure 8: Services trade - real 1,500 1,400 a a a a a Source: SURS. In the second quarter, production volume in manufacturing continued to rise (seasonally adjusted). Its growth was otherwise more modest than in the previous quarter due to significantly lower growth in medium-low-technology industries, where production had increased significantly in the first quarter mainly due to higher activity in the metal industry. In more technology-intensive industries, production volume was up again after the stagnation in the first quarter. In low-technology industries the recovery remained modest (seasonally adjusted). In the first six months, manufacturing production was up 5.6% year-on-year (working-day adjusted). The largest year-on-year increase was recorded in the manufacture of transport vehicles, which is mainly related to the beginning of the commercial production of new passenger cars in Figure 9: Production volume in manufacturing by technology intensity —•— Low-technology industries - Medium-low-technology industries 110 105 100 95 X -i^ 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 ------Medium-high- and high-technology industries -Manufacturing, total the second half of 2014.7 Production was also higher than in the same period of 2014 in the majority of other sectors, particularly in the manufacture of metals and in the furniture industry, which lags most notably behind the pre-crisis levels, alongside the textile industry, where production dropped again. The prospects for manufacturing remain favourable. In August the share of enterprises that expect exports and total demand to increase in the next three months remained around 20% higher than the share of those that have no such expectations. The percentage of enterprises expecting growth in production is similar. Only the share of those that expect growth in sales prices is falling, after it increased in the first half of the year. Most enterprises also remain optimistic about hiring. The number of persons employed in manufacturing continues to rise this year (seasonally adjusted). In the first eight months it was up 0.8% year-on-year (roughly 1,590 persons). It increased the most in the metal industry (by 4.5% or 1,620 persons). It remained lower than a year before in the textile industry (by 14.0% or 970 persons), in the manufacture of non-metallic mineral products and in some more technology-intensive industries8 (together around 670 persons or 1.5%). Figure 10: Indicators of expectations in manufacturing -Expected production -Expected prices ----Expected hiring ----Expected total demand ----Expected exports —•— Confidence indicator c T c T Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. The value of construction put in place dropped again in the second quarter (seasonally adjusted). This was mainly attributable to lower activity in the construction of civil-engineering works, where the value of construction put in place fell by 10.0% and was 12% lower year-on-year. In non-residential buildings, the value of construction o o o o Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. 7 As in the second half of the year the contribution of the manufacture of new passenger cars will peter out, the whole sector will see much more modest growth than in the first half of the year. 8 In the manufacture of ICT and electrical equipment and in the manufacture of other machinery and equipment. put in place strengthened slightly, while falling again in residential buildings. The stock of contracts and the value of new contracts in the construction sector dropped further. In the second quarter, the stock of contracts fell more notably in all three construction segments. The value of new contracts was also down, reaching the lowest level since 2000. Figure 11: Value of construction put in place -Construction ----Residential buildings -Non-residential buildings ----Civil-engineering works 70 60 50 40 30 20 a a a Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. In the second quarter, turnover in retail trade stagnated, while turnover in wholesale trade and in the sale of motor vehicles continued to grow (seasonally adjusted). It was up year-on-year in all sectors, owing to the strengthening of private consumption and domestic production activity. The strong year-on-year growth of turnover in the sale and repair of motor vehicles was underpinned by higher sales of passenger cars to both natural and legal persons.9 Turnover in the sale of non-food and food products was also up year-on-year. After increasing in the previous quarter, it otherwise stagnated or declined respectively, seasonally adjusted. Among non-food products, turnover strengthened year-on-year in the sale of clothing and footwear, furniture, and pharmaceutical and cosmetic products. The sales of household appliances and audio and video recordings were down year-on-year, after the strong growth in 2014 and in the first quarter. With turnover growth in the sale of automotive fuels, which fell notably in the previous two quarters, total turnover in retail trade was higher than a year before. Turnover was also up in wholesale trade, which is rising this year after last year's stagnation. 9 The sale to natural persons rose by 3.6% year-on-year and the sale to legal persons by 12.4%. The sale to natural persons via leasing was also up, by 21.8%. Figure 12: Turnover in trade sub-sectors -Retail trade, real ----Sale, repair of motor vehicles, real -Wholesale trade, nom. 115 a a a Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 13: Turnover in retail trade 105 100 95 90 Ji- 85 80 75 -The sale of automotive fuels -The sale of food, beverages and tobacco products ----The sale of non-food products a a a a a Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. In the second quarter of 2015, nominal turnover in market services (excluding distributive trades)10 strengthened further (seasonally adjusted) and was up year-on-year in most main services. At the quarterly level (and year-on-year), turnover rose the most in administrative and support service activities, where it was up in employment services and travel agency activities. Turnover also rose notably in the transportation sector, where it grew in warehousing and land transport activities. With a higher number of overnight stays, turnover in accommodation and food service activities increased slightly again and was therefore significantly higher year-on-year. In information and communication services, turnover shrank due to a considerable decline in telecommunication services (with 10 Activities from H to N (SCA 2008) subject to the Council Regulation (EC) No. 1165/98 concerning short-term statistics. 10 0 large providers in particular), which was not offset even by the strong growth in computer programming (where turnover already exceeded the pre-crisis level by almost a tenth).11 Turnover in professional and technical services was slightly lower year-on-year (it remained at a relatively high level in accounting services and at a relatively low level in architectural services). Figure 14: Nominal turnover in market services (other than trade) -Total -Transportation and storage (H) ----Communications (J) ----Professional-technical (M) -Administrative and support service (N) a a a Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Confidence in the economy, which is this year the highest since the beginning of the crisis, improved further in August. The improvement was mainly due to higher confidence in the manufacturing sector and among consumers. Figure 15: Business trends -Economic sentiment ----Retail trade -Construction -Manufacturing - Service activ. ----Consumers Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. 11 The year-on-year movement of turnover in the two information sectors is even more strongly reflected in the movement of services exports in these two sectors (-20% and 18%, respectively; BS). Box2: Road and rail freight transport - Q1 2015 The volumes of road and rail freight transport remain relatively high. In the first quarter of 2015 road freight transport otherwise declined by 1.3% (seasonally adjusted), but was as much as 17.8% higher year-on-year due to its strong growth in the previous three quarters. National transport rose by 23.4% and international transport (which represents the majority of road transport) by 17.1%. Within international transport, cross-trade transport increased the most year-on-year (by 23.3%), while the shipment of goods that are loaded or unloaded in Slovenia rose much less. Transport carried out by transport companies has been rising strongly in the past few quarters, while transport by natural persons has stagnated for as much as two years.1 The volume of rail freight transport also fell slightly in the first quarter of 2015 (seasonally adjusted). It has maintained a relatively high level for one and a half years.2 Railway operators otherwise reduced the volume of goods carried in transit relative to the same period last year, while significantly increasing other modes of international transport, outgoing transport in particular. Figure 16: Road and rail freight transport ---Road - international (left axis) -Road - national (rigth axis) -Rail (right axis) 3,900 1,100 a a a a Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. 1 In Q1 2015 transport by legal entities accounted for more than two thirds of total transport. 2 In Q1 2015, rail transport was 18% higher relative to the pre-crisis year (road transport less than 8% higher). Confidence in service activities is also higher than at the beginning of the year. In other sectors confidence is not improving this year, but remains relatively high. Labour market In the second quarter, the number of employed persons^^ continued to increase (0.4%, seasonally adjusted). In the first half of the year, the number of employed persons was up in most activities of the private sector,13 where indicators of economic activity were also higher than in the same period last year. The largest increase was recorded in employment activities, which provide labour to other sectors, but the year-on-year growth in these activities is gradually declining.14 In public 12 According to the Statistical Register of Employment; these are persons in paid employment and self-employed persons except farmers. 13 Particularly in medium-low-technology manufacturing activities, accommodation and food service activities, land transport and distributive trades (retail trade in particular). 14 In our estimation, a strong increase in the number of persons employed in employment activities may be attributed to employers being cautious about hiring new employees due to the still uncertain economic recovery. services, employment rose particularly in health and social work and in education, while it continued to decline year-on-year in public administration. The data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) also show a further increase in employment in the second quarter (0.2%, seasonally adjusted). The number of registered unemployed continued to decline in August, although at a somewhat slower pace than early in the year (-0.5%, seasonally adjusted). In our estimation, the slight slowdown was mainly attributable to the somewhat smaller outflow into employment, which had still been above average at the beginning of the year. At the end of August, 107,935 persons were registered as unemployed, 6.0% fewer than in August 2014. In the first eight months of 2015, fewer people registered anew than in the same period of 2014, mainly as a result of fewer job losses for business reasons or due to the bankruptcies of companies. There were also fewer first-time jobseekers, most of whom are Figure 17: Employed according to SRE and registered unemployed -Employed persons according to SRE (left axis) -Registered unemployed (right axis) Table 4: Indicators of labour market trends ;s i \ \ S 170 160 <Š (S 150 140 Iii 130 Source: SURS, ESS; calculations by IMAD. Table 3: Employed persons by activity in % 2014 VI 15/ V 15 VI 15/ VI 14 I-VI 15/ I-VI 14 Persons in formal employment2 0.5 0.1' 0.6 1.2 Registered unemployed 0.2 -0.3' -6.1 -6.0 Average nominal gross wage 1.1 0.4' 1.2 0.5 - private sector 1.4 0.9' 1.5 0.3 - public sector 0.9 0.2' 1.0 1.2 -of which general government 0.6 0.1' 0.4 0.8 2014 VI 14 V 15 VI 15 Rate of registered unemployment (in %), seasonally adjusted 13.1 13.1 12.4 12.4 Average nominal gross wage (in EUR) 1,540.25 1,521.38 1,528.50 1,539.82 Private sector (in EUR) 1,424.32 1,396.00 1,396.22 1,416.61 Public sector (in EUR) 1,757.29 1,755.94 1,778.65 1,773.77 -of which general government (in EUR) 1,726.43 1,741.45 1,750.76 1,747.88 Sources: ESS. SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1seasonally adjusted, 2 Persons in paid employment, self-employed persons and farmers. Number in '000 Change in number 2014 VI 15 V 15 VI 14 VI15/ VI 14 I-VI 15/I-VI 14 Manufacturing 178.3 180.6 179.9 178.1 2,449 1,588 Construction 54.0 55.6 55.3 55.0 576 528 Market services 339.0 348.1 347.2 339.8 8,245 9,623 -of which: Employment activities 10.6 14.5 14.4 10.5 4,060 4,890 Public services 171.0 172.4 172.1 171.6 758 890 Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 48.8 48.3 48.0 49.1 -832 -761 Education 66.0 66.7 66.9 66.2 480 578 Human health and social work activities 56.2 57.4 57.2 56.3 1,110 1,073 Other' 55.5 50.5 50.5 57.5 -7,052 -3,003 Total 797.8 807.1 804.9 802.1 4,976 9,625 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1Agriculture and hunting, forestry, fishing; mining; electricity, gas and steam supply; water supply, sewerage, waste-management and remediation activities young people.15 The outflow from the unemployment register was slightly smaller, and so was the outflow into employment, also because fewer people were included in public works. According to the LFS, unemployment otherwise rose somewhat in the second quarter (3.0%, seasonally adjusted) as a result of a larger inflow of previously inactive persons to the labour market, but remained lower year-on-year. Figure 18: Employed persons by activity ■ Q2 2014 ■Q3 2014 ■Q4 2014 BQI 2015 ■Q2 2015 the rising number of workers with relatively low earnings. Amid uninterrupted growth in the past year, earnings in public corporations again recorded above-average growth (1.9%). Consequently, growth was also high in the public sector (1.2%), where it was also underpinned by last year's payments of suspended promotions in the general government. Figure 19: Average gross earnings per employee -Gross earnings per empoloyee ----Private sector -Public sector - of which, general government sector ------ - of which, public corporations Manufacturing Construction Market services Public services Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. a a a a Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Average gross earnings per employee rose by a further 0.3% in the second quarter (seasonally adjusted), but their growth was more modest than in the same period of 2014. This time the increase (seasonally adjusted) was due to both private and public sector earnings. The growth of gross earnings in the private sector resumed (0.3%) after the interruption in the first quarter; since the beginning of last year, earnings have also been rising in the public sector (the second quarter: 0.2%). With unchanged wage policy, it remained the same as one quarter earlier in the general government, while rising further in public corporations,16 mainly owing to the strong growth of earnings in public financial corporations.17 In the first six months, the growth of average gross earnings (0.5%) dropped by half relative to the same period of 2014. This is attributable to the modest growth of earnings in the private sector (0.3%), which is, according to our estimate, for the most part due to changes in employment structure owing to 15 This is also reflected in a notable decline in the number of unemployed in the 15-29 age group; in the first eight months of 2015, unemployment in this age group was down 3,694 year-on-year (11.9%), while total unemployment was down 7,250 (5.9%). 16 Public corporations are corporations controlled by units of the general government sector, the basic criterion for determining control being majority ownership (owning more than half of the voting shares). They include companies, banks, insurance corporations, old people's homes, pharmacies, etc. 17 In these, basic earnings and extraordinary payments went up. Prices The year-on-year decline in consumer prices in August (-0.3%) was a consequence of lower energy prices. Energy prices fell year-on-year (contribution: -0.8 percentage points) mainly due to the lower prices of liquid fuels (-0.9 percentage points) as a result of the year-on-year decline in euro prices of oil on global markets.18 The fall in energy prices was offset slightly by the year-on-year rise in electricity prices (0.1 percentage points) due higher RES charges.19 For quite some time, deflationary movements have also been impacted by lower prices of other goods, primarily durables (-0.2 percentage points). Food prices remained up year-on-year (0.3 percentage points), their growth still arising from higher prices of unprocessed food. Growth in prices of services has slowed significantly in recent months, with prices rising mainly in communication services. Core inflation20 remains lower than in the euro area, reflecting lower growth in both prices of services and prices of non-energy goods. 18 Brent oil prices in EUR were down 45% year-on-year in August. 19 As a result of the increase in RES charges, the final electricity price was 3.3% higher in August. 20 Inflation excluding the effect of energy prices and prices of unprocessed food. Figure 20: Breakdown of year-on-year inflation Fuels and energy 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 JZ 1.5 1.0 o 0.5 0.0 o " -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Inflation in the euro area remained modest in August (0.2%). Price growth was manly underpinned by higher services prices (0.5 percentage points), alongside higher prices of unprocessed food (contribution: 0.2 percentage points) and non-energy commodities (0.2 percentage points). Energy prices remain lower (-0.8 percentage points), for reasons similar to those in Slovenia. Figure 21: Headline and core inflation in Slovenia and in the euro area -Slovenia HICP ----Slovenia HICP - core inflation -Euro area HICP ----Euro area HICP - core inflation 4.0 3.5 3.0 # 2.5 .ä^' 2.0 o 1.5 1.0 ^Š 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 Source: Eurostat. Industrial producer prices on the domestic market were down slightly year-on-year in July (-0.2%); on foreign markets, price growth slowed (0.5%). The year-on-year decline in industrial producer prices on the domestic market in the last two months was a consequence of lower prices in most manufacturing activities, while prices in the manufacture of ICT and electrical equipment (3.9%) and the metal industry (1.4%) rose. After the strengthening at the beginning of this year, price growth on foreign markets declined in the last two months, primarily on account of price movements of goods sold outside the euro area,21 where price growth is slowing again from its high level in April. Import prices remained unchanged year-on-year in July. With lower prices of oil on global markets, they were down due to the lower prices in the manufacture of transport equipment (-0.9%) and up due to the higher import prices in the metal industry (3.3%) and in the manufacture of ICT and electrical equipment (6.7%). Figure 22: Industrial producer prices and import prices - PPI (foreign market) ■ PPI (foreign market) euro area ---PPI (foreign market) non-euro area -Import prices Source: SURS. Table 5: Consumer price growth 2014 VII 15/VI 15 VII 15/VII 14 Total 0.2 -0.8 -0.4 Food -1.0 -0.7 1.4 Fuels and energy -4.1 -0.9 -6.5 Services 2.8 1.7 0.4 Other1 0.2 -2.8 0.3 Total excluding food and energy 1.3 -0.9 0.3 Core inflation - trimmean2 0.0 -0.2 0.2 Administered prices -2.6 -1.2 -7.6 Tax impact - contribution in percentage points. 0.4 0.0 0.0 Source: SURS, Ministry of Economic Development and Technology; calculations by IMAD.Notes: 1 Clothing, footwear, furniture, passenger cars, alcoholic beverages, tobacco, etc.; 2The trimmean approach excludes the share of extreme price changes in each month. The optimum share is determined as a difference between the moving average and the calculated trimmed mean in the period of the last five years. 21 This year, the year-on-year price growth in the euro area is moving around 0.9%; price growth outside the euro area, which was 3.0% in April, totalled -0.2% in July 4 In June price competitiveness continued to improve year-on-year. After declining at the monthly level for ten months, the real effective exchange rate deflated by the relative HICP22 increased in June for the second consecutive month due to the appreciation of the euro against most main trading partners.23 At the year-on-year level, it remained lower, as relative prices were also down with the nominal exchange rate decline. Amid a considerable improvement, the effects of the weak euro on Slovenia's price competitiveness in the first half of Figure 23: Real effective exchange rates, HICP deflator, Slovenia and the euro area -SI against 37 partners (euro area and non-euro area) —SI against 19 partners (non-euro area) ------SI against 18 partners (euro area) -EA against 19 partners (non-euro area) # 3 0 -3 -6 -12 -15 rN m m ii ii ii ii Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD. Figure 24: Real effective exchange rates, HICP deflator, euro area Member States and the euro area Against 19 partners (non-euro area) ■ Against 18 partners (euro area) ♦ Against 37 partners (euro area and non-euro area) Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD. this year were somewhat smaller than in most other euro area countries, which is attributable to the geographical structure of Slovenia's external trade. As Slovenia has an above-average share of trade with the euro area, it is relatively less susceptible to the volatility of the euro.24 Furthermore, in the first half of the year, the euro was depreciating primarily against the currencies of those trading partners that accounted for relatively smaller shares in Slovenia's trade outside the euro area (the US, the United Kingdom, Asian countries); against the currencies of Slovenia's partners with relatively larger shares it was stable (Croatia, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Poland), or strengthened (Russia25). The effects of the weak euro on Slovenia's price competitiveness outside the euro area were therefore smaller. Balance of payments The surplus on the current account of the balance of payments amounted to EUR 806 m in the second quarter of this year. It was still underpinned by the high surplus in merchandise and services trade. The balance of primary income was in deficit, which is rising. The balance of secondary income was also negative. In the last twelve months the current account surplus reached as much as 7% of GDP. Figure 25: Components of the current account of the balance of payments Merchandise trade Services trade Primary income Secondary income 1000 Current account 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 a a a Source: BoS; calculated by IMAD. The surplus in external trade widened again in the second quarter owing to the growing surpluses in merchandise and 22 Slovenian prices relative to those in the trading partners. 23 The Polish zloty, Hungarian forint, US dollar, Swiss franc, Japanese yen, Chinese yuan and South Korean won. 24 The falling of the exchange rate of the euro has a relatively smaller positive effect on Slovenia's price competitiveness; when the euro appreciates, the deterioration of price competitiveness is also smaller. 25 Russia is not included in the group of 37 trading partners, but belongs to a broader group of 56 trading partners, which shows a very similar picture. 9 6 services trade. The widening of the nominal balance in trade was, alongside the quantity factors, also due to the better terms of trade.26 The surplus in merchandise trade was up year-on-year chiefly due to a larger surplus in trade with non-EU Member States, while the surplus in trade with the EU was lower year-on-year.27 The higher surplus in the balance of services trade was mainly impacted by trade in travel and transport services. With increased purchases by non-residents on the domestic market and a further decline in residents' spending abroad, the surplus in trade in travel services rose significantly. The larger surplus of trade in transport services was chiefly the result of a larger surplus in rail, air and road transport. The deficit in primary income increased in the second quarter primarily due to the net outflows of capital income; other primary income recorded a net inflow. The higher deficit in capital income was mainly due to higher losses of Slovenian direct investors abroad.28 Total net interest payments abroad were down year-on-year. Although the required yields are now lower, net interest payments of the government sector continue to increase due to the borrowing in previous years. Interest receipts of the private sector exceed its interest payments abroad due to the deleveraging of commercial banks and higher domestic investment in foreign debt securities.29 The BoS reported positive net interest income from its claims within the Eurosystem and financial assets. In other primary income, subsidies received increased year-on-year. The widening of the deficit in secondary income was mainly the result of lower current transfers of the private sector. In the second quarter, international financial transactions30 recorded a net outflow again, at EUR 817 m (in the same period of last year, EUR 564 m). The net outflows of the government and the private sector were significantly higher than the net inflow of the central bank. In the second quarter, portfolio investment recorded a net outflow of EUR 1,7 bn. Other financial corporations were buying equity and long-term debt securities, which is explained by the relatively high yields on international financial markets. The general government sector repaid a portion of its liabilities to foreign portfolio investors. Direct investment recorded net claims abroad in the 26 The terms of trade have improved for the ninth quarter in a row. They increase the purchasing power of exports of Slovenian companies, which - also due to the falling import prices - lower the operating costs and increase the gross operating surplus. In the second quarter of 2015, they otherwise improved only by 0.2%, due to the faster growth in export than import prices. 27 According to the balance of payments statistics. 28 On the current account of the balance of payments, the coverage of losses is recorded as negative reinvested earnings of companies from outward direct investment. 29 Due to higher returns, investment and pension funds and insurance companies increased investment on international financial markets. 30 Financial account excluding reserve assets. amount of EUR 100 m. Equity capital flows were weak and mainly involved debt financing of companies. After several quarters of net outflows, other investment recorded a net inflow in the second quarter, in the amount of EUR 1 bn, mainly because the central bank withdrew some of its deposits from foreign accounts. Meanwhile, commercial banks continued to deleverage abroad while non-residents were withdrawing deposits from Slovenian banks. Figure 26: Financial transactions of the balance of payments 4,000 3,000 2,000 E 1,000 0 -1,000 -2,000 -3,000 -4,000 ■ Direct investment ■ Financial derivatives -Net financial flow ■ Portfolio investment Other investment a a a Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. Table 6: Balance of payments I-VI 15, in EUR m Inflows Outflows Balance1 Balance I-VI 14 Current account 15,706.7 14,449.5 1,257.3 1,171.5 Goods 11,944.9 11,168.9 776.0 579.8 Services 2,707.5 1,810.2 897.3 764.3 Primary income 667.2 810.9 -143.7 60.2 Secondary income 387.1 659.5 -272.4 -232.8 Capital account 249.1 246.9 2.2 -38.4 Gross acquisitions/disposals of non-produced non-financial assets 73.5 74.7 -1.2 9.5 Capital transfers 175.6 172.2 3.4 -47.9 Financial account -1,769.3 125.2 1,894.5 1,090.7 Direct investment 380.3 154.6 -225.6 -435.7 Portfolio investment -1,604.8 745.8 2,350.6 -4,318.0 Financial derivatives -47.4 -18.4 28.9 -11.3 Other investment -497.4 -759.4 -262.0 5,690.2 Assets 0.0 -759.4 -759.4 3,741.2 Liabilities -497.4 0.0 497.4 -1,949.1 Reserve assets 0.0 2.6 2.6 165.5 Net errors and omissions 0.0 635.0 635.0 -42.4 Source: BoS. Note: 1a minus sign (-) in the balance indicates a surplus of imports over exports in the current account and a rise in assets in the capital and financial account and the central bank's international reserves. Financial markets The deleveraging of domestic non-banking sectors at Slovenian banks continues this year. In the first seven months of 2015,31 the volume of loans declined by around EUR 570 m (i.e. almost half less than in the same period last year). In the first seven months, NFIs repaid more debts than in the same period of 2014. Lending to households (particularly lending in the form of housing loans) and lending to the government rose this year. The low lending activity of the Slovenian banks has further accelerated the decline in net interest receipts of the banking system, which has slowed the reduction in the share of non-performing claims. Growth in household deposits is easing relative to the comparative period last year. Figure 27: Changes in domestic bank loans to households, enterprises and NFIs and the government ■ Households «Enterprises and NFIs ■ Government ♦Total 400 200 0 -200 ^^ -400 Ču -600 -800 -1,000 -1,200 -1,400 I 2011 I-VII 2012 I-VII 2013 I-VII 2014 I-VII 2015 Source: BoS; calculationy by IMAD. The rising volume ofhousehold housing loans is still mainly due to January's appreciation of the Swiss franc while the volume of other loans is falling more slowly than last year. The volume of loans has been rising this year, but in the last two months the total increase declined (in the first seven months it was only around EUR 60 m higher). The volume of housing loans rose (by EUR 125 m), which was to a great extent the result of January's appreciation of the franc.32 Consumer loans and loans for other purposes shrank, yet less than in 2014. Corporate deleveraging is slowing at home and abroad, but NFI deleveraging is rising. In the first seven months, the volume of corporate and NFI loans at domestic banks fell by around EUR 700 m, roughly 20% less than in the same period of 2014. The bulk of decline is attributable to the almost half smaller year-on-year fall in corporate loans (EUR 520 m). In the first half of the year, enterprises recorded net borrowing abroad while NFIs deleveraged. NFI debt repayments abroad exceeded EUR 215 m while enterprises borrowed more than EUR 50 m. This means that financially more stable enterprises are taking advantage of more favourable borrowing abroad, as domestic interest rates remain above the EMU average despite a somewhat faster decline in the recent period. In June the difference between domestic and foreign interest rates33 was around 120 basis points. Banks continue to deleverage abroad. In the first half of the year their net repayments totalled EUR 1.3 bn, up two thirds from the comparable period of 2014, which is a consequence of the repayment of the matured bond and higher net repayments of deposits. The liabilities of the Slovenian banking system against foreign banks thus shrank to EUR 3.4 bn in July34 and represented only 8.1% of the banking system's total assets. Figure 28: Net repayments of foreign liabilities of domestic banks ■ Long-term loans HShort-term loans «Deposits «Notes »Total 0 -200 -400 -600 E r ^ -800 -1,000 -1,200 -1,400 -1,600 -1,800 31 In loan movements in the first seven months of 2015, the change in volume as at 31 July 2015 relative to 31 December 2014 is shown. 32 The volume of foreign currency loans therefore increased by more than EUR 110 m, according to our estimate. I-VI 2011 I-VI 2012 I-VI 2013 I-VI 2014 I-VI 2015 Source: BoS. Household and government deposits are increasing more slowly this year. In the first seven months household deposits rose by around EUR 300 m. Overnight deposits continue to grow (in the first seven months by EUR 1.1 bn) and account for more than half of all household deposits, which is attributable to the low interest rates for term deposits. Government deposits rose by around EUR 360 m in the same period, hovering around EUR 2.2 bn. 33 Interest rates on loans of over EUR 1 m with a variable, or up to one year, with a fixed initial interest rate. 34They were highest in Q3 2008, when they stood at EUR 17.9 bn. Table 7: Financial market indicators Domestic bank loans to nonbanking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR bn Nominal loan growth, % 31. XII 14 31. VII 15 31. VII 15/30. VI 15 31. VII 15/31. XII 14 31. VII 15/31. VII 14 Loans total 22.883,1 22.316,8 -0,5 -2,5 -11,4 Enterprises and NFI 12.300,4 11.608,3 -1,7 -5,6 -21,2 Government 1.820,3 1.887,4 5,5 3,7 14,3 Households 8.762,5 8.821,0 -0,2 0,7 0,1 Consumer credits 2.104,1 2.070,3 -0,1 -1,6 -4,4 Lending for house purchase 5.348,0 5.472,9 0,0 2,3 2,7 Other lending 1.310,5 1.277,8 -1,0 -2,5 -2,7 Bank deposits total 15.355,6 15.656,9 0,5 2,0 3,5 Overnight deposits 7.373,6 8.428,6 2,2 14,3 20,4 Short-term deposits 3.272,5 2.776,8 -1,6 -15,1 -20,2 Long-term deposits 4.704,9 4.441,8 -1,2 -5,6 -4,3 Deposits redeemable at notice 4,6 9,7 11,0 112,5 101,0 Mutual funds 2.150,7 2.449,9 0,8 13,9 20,3 Government bank deposits, total 1.909,4 2.273,1 17,2 19,0 -12,9 Overnight deposits 24,6 525,4 385,1 2.036,3 -28,7 Short-term deposits 860,6 490,7 -8,7 -43,0 -61,0 Long-term deposits 955,2 1.108,2 -7,8 16,0 83,3 Deposits redeemable at notice 69,0 148,8 61,5 115,5 1.217,9 Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BoS, SMA (Securities Market Agency); calculations by IMAD. Note: NFI - Non-monetary Financial Institutions. This year the quality of banks' assets is improving while the creation of additional provisions and impairments is slowing. The volume of arrears of over 90 days is gradually declining. At the end of June, it amounted to EUR 4.1 bn. The share of non-performing claims has stabilised at around 11.5% in the past few months. For its further reduction, it is necessary, in our estimation, to revive the lending activity of banks and reduce the share of non-performing claims by increasing the share of new higher-quality claims. Continuing to slow, the creation of impairments and provisions amounted to around EUR 120 m in the first six months of 2015, almost half less than in the comparable period of 2014. Public finance Figure 29: Creation of impairments and provisions and the share of arrears of more than 90 days in the Slovenian banking system Provisions and impairments -Share of arrears of over 90 days (right axis) "" ■66?2254 -^ 22 20 18 16 14 12 200 ■■ , 10 ^ 150 ......................... 8 100 ........1 6 : üU: 0 : C 1 Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. In the first halfof the year, the general government deficit35 totalled EUR 664 m, which is 44 m less than in the same period of 2014. The lower deficit is the result of higher tax revenues and social contributions. Their growth is related to the improvement in labour market conditions, better performance of companies in 2014 (and consequent payments of the underpaid corporate income tax for the previous year in 2015), the strengthening of private consumption, and government measures.36 The primary budget balance37 was positive (EUR 6 m) and thus more favourable than in the same period last year (minus EUR 53 m). As the shortfall in non-tax revenues was offset by higher revenues from taxes and social contributions, general government revenue was up 0.9% year-on-year in the first 35 According to the consolidated general government budgetary accounts on a cash basis. 36 Such as: expansion of the social contribution base, increase in the €02 tax, increase in the rates of the taxes on financial and insurance services and measures aimed at improving the efficiency of tax collection. 37 The budget balance excluding net interest payments. Table 8: Consolidated general government revenues 2011 2012 2013 2014 I-VI 2014 I-VI 2015 Y-o-y growth, in % EUR m Growth, in % Contribution to growth, perc. p. GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES 1.3 0.1 -1.8 5.2 9.0 7,607.5 0.9 0.9 TAX REVENUES* 4.3 -0.8 -4.5 5.3 10.0 4,083.6 5.9 3.0 Personal income tax 0.7 1.1 -10.1 2.5 2.1 1,077.7 3.0 0.4 Corporate income tax 48.8 -13.6 -54.0 76.6 279.4 311.3 31.4 1.0 Taxes on immovable property 1.4 8.7 7.1 -9.1 -76.6 48.7 208.2 0.4 Value added tax 1.8 -2.9 4.3 4.1 10.1 1,546.2 3.6 0.7 Excise duties 1.6 6.7 -4.5 0.0 5.4 710.6 2.4 0.2 SOCIAL SECURITY CONTRIBUTIONS 0.6 -0.4 -2.2 2.8 2.3 2,692.9 3.3 1.1 NON-TAX REVENUES -10.2 10.1 8.4 19.8 51.4 393.0 -38.7 -3.3 RECEIPTS FROM THE EU BUDGET 12.5 3.7 11.0 10.9 0.3 405.3 1.9 0.1 OTHER REVENUES (capital and transferred revenues, donations) -56.5 -4.7 23.5 -49.7 -10.1 32.6 -10.0 0.0 Source: MF, Bulletin of Government Finance; calculations by IMAD. Note: * Unlike tax revenues in the consolidated balance of public finance, tax revenues in this table do not include social constributions. Table 9: Consolidated general government expenditure 2011 2012 2013 2014 I-VI 2014 I-VI 2015 Y-o-y growth, in % EUR m Growth, in % Contribution to growth, perc. p. GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE -0.9 -2.5 1.0 2.9 1.2 8,271.7 0.3 0.3 CURRENT EXPENDITURE -0.5 -1.6 0.4 3.0 -1.3 3,648.2 0.9 0.4 Salaries, wages and other personnel expenditures -0.8 -4.0 -3.0 -0.2 -0.9 1,830.6 0.1 0.0 Expenditure on goods and services -2.7 -2.9 -5.7 -0.3 -4.8 1,058.2 -1.2 -0.2 Interest payments 7.9 23.0 29.7 30.6 9.7 675.6 0.3 0.0 Reserves 56.1 -12.2 119.8 -27.9 -43.5 83.8 91.4 0.5 CURRENT TRANSFERS 2.5 -1.7 -0.2 -1.0 -0.2 3,800.6 -0.8 -0.4 Of which: Transfers to individuals and households 4.1 -2.3 -0.6 -0.1 0.0 3,157.2 -0.1 -0.1 INVESTMENT EXPENDITURE -18.2 -11.5 9.4 27.1 41.2 557.0 3.1 0.2 PAYMENTS TO THE EU BUDGET 2.1 -3.7 9.0 -5.3 -1.4 265.9 2.8 0.1 Source: MF, Bulletin of Government Finance; calculations by IMAD. Figure 30: Budget balance and primary budget balance ■ Budget balance ■ Primary budget balance 200 0 -200 -400 -600 E -800 m JZ -1,000 -1,200 -1,400 -1,600 -1,800 I.-VI. I.-VI. 2014 2015 Source: MF, Bulletin of Government Finace; calculations by IMAD. half of 2015. The continuation of growth in tax revenues (5.9% year-on-year) was mainly due to higher revenues from the corporate income tax (CIT) and the value added tax (VAT), which had already been the main sources of tax revenue growth last year. Similar to last year, most of the year-on-year growth in CIT revenues arises from payments of the underpaid tax for the previous year, while the higher inflow of VAT mainly reflects the strengthening of private consumption. Higher figures were also recorded by other major tax revenue categories. The inflow of compensation for the use of building ground was up due to the deferment of collection of the tax for 2014 to 2015, while revenue from the personal income tax increased as a result of the improvement on the labour market. The latter was also reflected in higher social contributions (3.3% year-on-year growth) whose growth was also underpinned by the expansion of contribution bases.38 The decline in non-tax revenues (-38.7%) reflects 38 Since 1 February 2015, full contributions for pension and disability insurance and employers' contributions for health insurance are to be paid on student work. the lower surplus from the treasury single account management paid into the state budget and the absence of some one-off revenues received last year (particularly the payment of concession fees for mobile telephony radio frequencies). As a result of the growth of current expenditure and capital expenditure, general government expenditure was slightly higher year-on-year in the first half of the 2015. The increase in current expenditure (by 0.9%) was mainly attributable to higher reserves;39 labour costs and interest payments were also somewhat higher, while expenditure on goods and services was slightly lower but is approaching the level from the same period last year after being partially frozen temporarily before the adoption of the revised state budget for 2015. After last year's strong increase, capital expenditure recorded moderate (3.1%) year-on-year growth (mainly due to the decline in the first quarter); payments into the EU budget were also up (2.8%).40 Current transfers were down year-on-year (-0.8), which is related to lower transfers to the unemployed, payments of pensions, subsidies (whose year-on-year lags are smaller and smaller) and lower transfers to domestic and foreign non-profit organisations. Among the growing categories of current transfers were social security transfers and sickness benefits, which is partly related to changes in social legislation. The net position of the state budget against the EU budget in the first seven months was positive at EUR 201.4 m (EUR 152.2 m in the same period of last year). Slovenia received EUR 483.9 m from the EU budget, 45.1% of the level envisaged in the revised budget for 2015, and paid EUR 282.5 m into the EU budget, 70.7% of the total amount planned. Around a third of all receipts were Cohesion Policy funds (34.7%; 34.1% of those planned) and funds for the implementation of the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies (32.85; the highest absorption rate relative to expectations, 71.9%). Revenue from Structural Funds accounted for 29.2% of all receipts (44.6% absorption). In June and July together, receipts to the state budget totalled EUR 128.5 m, while payments to the EU budget amounted to EUR 41.3 m. The net position was therefore positive again - EUR 24.2 m in June and EUR 62.9 m in July. Figure 31: Receipts from the EU budget, January - July 2014 and 2015 ■ Total receipts (Jan-Jul 2015) ■ Total receipts (Jan-Jul 2014) Cohesion Fund Common Agricultural Policy Other 50 100 150 In EUR m Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. 200 250 39 This year reserves also include resources of the water protection fund and the climate change fund; special purpose funds for scholarships, which have since 2013 been gradually transferred into this category from current transfers, are also higher year-on-year. 40 The amount paid into the EU budget will also be higher year-on-year, due to a higher gross national income and revenue from VAT in 2014 (compared with 2013) and the amendments to the EU budget that call for higher payments. 0 %J a o ■Ö 01 u 31 Ö! V) Life satisfaction41 According to the latest measurement (spring 2015), life satisfaction did not change compared with the previous measurement (autumn 2014) and remains lower than before the crisis. The proportion of satisfied people in Slovenia (81%) is similar to the EU average (80%), but the gap between the two narrowed significantly during the crisis. In spring 2015, life satisfaction in the EU as a whole was 3 percentage points higher than in spring 2008, while in Slovenia it was 8 percentage points lower. Figure 32: Life satisfaction in Slovenia and on average in the EU Figure 33: Life satisfaction in EU Member States, 2008 and 2015 -EU -Slovenia 92 90 88 86 80 78 76 74 ----EU - the average of 22 measurements ----Slovenia - the average of 22 measurements rNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrN CC^CC^CC^CC^CC^C Ö1 CC^ C ÖICC^ cc^ cc^ Source: Standard Eurobarometer. Slovenia is one of the countries where satisfaction declined the most during the crisis. Since 2008 overall life satisfaction has worsened the most in Greece, Cyprus, Spain and Slovenia, which are some of the countries that were hit hardest by the crisis. Satisfaction increased the most in Hungary, Lithuania and Germany. Throughout this period, overall life satisfaction has been highest in northern EU countries, while it was lowest in new Member States and those with significant fiscal problems. In Slovenia, satisfaction with the economic and employment situation has been slowly rising in the past two years. Having reached its low in 2013 (4%), satisfaction with the economy rose to 10% by spring 2015. Satisfaction with the employment situation in the country was similarly low, but it increased from 2% in spring 2013 to 5% in spring 2015. 41 The Eurobarometer survey measures life satisfaction with the following question: All things considered, how satisfied would you say you are with your life these days? The possible answers are: very satisfied, satisfied, dissatisfied and very dissatisfied. In the context of our analysis, the category of satisfied people includes those very satisfied and satisfied. 100 Spring 2015 90 «Spring 2008 ■ i-i 80 70 60 50 40 30 ii . 'im ■ ■ Source: Standard Eurobarometer. Figure 34: Assessment of satisfaction and one-year optimistic expectations of the economic and employment situation in the country -Assessment of satisfaction with the econ. sit. in the country -Assessment of satisfaction with the empl. sit. in the country ------Expectations of an improvement in the econ. sit. in the country ------Expectations of an improvement in the empl. sit. in the country 60 ; 30 20 '0 CNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrNrN E E -fE E E E E E -IE Source: Standard Eurobarometer. Notes: In the case of only one annual measurement, this is regarded as the annual average. In measuring 'optimism', we observe the proportion of those that expect a change for the better among the possible answers. In contrast, more than half of respondents in Slovenia are satisfied with their personal employment situation and their personal financial situation. Both proportions are otherwise lower than a year earlier and below the EU average (the personal employment situation: 53% Slovenia, 58% EU average; the personal financial situation: 60% Slovenia, 68% EU average). In spring 2015, the proportion of those expecting an improvement rose in Slovenia in all four areas. These proportions have already come close to the level seen before the economic crisis, but are still lower than 50 40 0 on average in the EU. It is typical that the worse the assessment of the current situation, the more optimistic and unreal the expectations above the future can be. They also tend to change rapidly under the impact of extraordinary events (media scandals, international problems). This is especially typical for the assessment of the economy and employment situation in a country where people form opinions on the basis of media reports, the opinion of experts or the general public. Figure 35: Assessment of satisfaction and one-year expectations with regard to the personal financial and employment situation in Slovenia -Personal employment situation -Personal financial situation ------Expectations of an impr. in the financial sit. of one's own household 80 70 60 50 jz 40 30 20 10 0 coc^c^oo<— <— cNCNroroTrTrLn == Source: Standard Eurobaromete^.Notes: Inl^he case o^only one annual measurement, this is regarded as the annual average. In measuring 'optimism', we observe the proportion of those that expect a change for the better among the possible answers. X "ö C O a a (O "iS u (O (O MAIN INDICATORS 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Spring forecast 2015 GDP (real growth rates, in %) 1.2 0.6 -2.7 -1.1 3.0 2.4 2.0 2.1 GDP in EUR million (current prices) 36,252 36,896 35,988 35,907 37,303 38,558 39,474 40,701 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices) 17,694 17,973 17,498 17,435 18,093 18,635 19,032 19,583 GDP per capita (PPS)1 21,100 21,500 21,600 21,700 22600 GDP per capita (PPS EU28=100)' 83 83 82 82 83 Rate of registered unemployment 10.7 11.8 12.0 13.1 13.1 12.5 12.0 11.2 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 7.3 8.2 8.9 10.1 9.7 9.2 8.6 7.9 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 3.4 2.4 -1.8 0.3 2.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 Inflation,2 year average 1.8 1.8 2.6 1.8 0.2 -0.2 1.0 1.4 Inflation,2 end of the year 1.9 2.0 2.7 0.7 0.2 0.4 1.4 1.3 INTERNATIONAL TRADE Exports of goods and services (real growth rates, in %) 10.2 6.9 0.6 3.1 5.8 5.6 6.2 5.0 Exports of goods 12.0 8.0 0.4 3.3 6.4 6.3 6.7 5.2 Exports of services 3.4 2.5 1.5 1.9 3.4 2.6 4.2 4.2 Imports of goods and services (real growth rates, in %) 6.8 5.0 -3.7 1.7 4.0 5.2 4.7 5.2 Imports of goods 7.6 6.0 -4.3 2.5 3.7 5.4 4.8 5.3 Imports of services 3.1 -0.4 0.2 -3.1 6.0 4.1 4.3 4.4 Current account balance3, in EUR million -43 68 930 2,023 2,607 2,266 2,366 2,549 As a per cent share relative to GDP -0.1 0.2 2.6 5.6 7.0 5.9 6.0 6.3 Gross external debt, in EUR million 42,123 41,669 42,872 41,658 46,314 44,921* As a per cent share relative to GDP 116.2 112.9 119.1 116.0 124.2 Ratio of USD to EUR 1.327 1.392 1.286 1.328 1.329 1.137 1.135 1.135 DOMESTIC DEMAND Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) 1.3 0.0 -2.5 -4.1 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.8 As a % of GDP 56.0 56.0 56.7 55.0 53.3 51.6 51.7 51.6 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) -0.5 -0.7 -2.3 -1.5 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 As a % of GDP 20.3 20.4 20.3 19.8 19.1 18.5 18.3 18.0 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) -13.3 -4.9 -8.8 1.7 3.2 4.8 -2.0 4.0 As a % of GDP 21.3 20.2 19.3 19.7 19.6 20.6 20.1 20.6 Sources of data: SURS, BoS, Eurostat, calculations and forecasts by IMAD (Spring Forecast, March 2015). Notes: 1Measured in purchasing power standard; 2Consumer price index; 3 Balance of payments statistics; "End June 2015. PRODUCTION 2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 2015 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 7 8 9 10 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D -1.1 -0.9 2.2 -1.7 -1.1 1.6 0.7 2.3 3.1 2.6 5.4 3.9 1.2 -5.7 0.8 -1.6 B Mining and quarrying -7.4 1.3 -3.8 -9.6 -7.1 16.8 -1.6 33.0 -9.6 -28.1 1.1 -12.6 2.4 -1.1 -21.7 -8.0 C Manufacturing -2.3 -1.5 4.3 -2.0 -1.4 1.2 3.3 3.1 5.1 5.6 6.2 5.1 1.1 -6.7 0.6 -2.2 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 10.5 3.9 -14.2 1.9 3.2 3.1 -18.3 -10.0 -11.5 -16.1 -1.3 -3.9 1.9 1.7 6.2 5.1 CONSTRUCTION,2 real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total -16.8 -2.5 19.5 -10.5 -3.4 22.8 36.8 40.0 19.8 -3.3 0.3 -9.8 1.8 -5.3 -5.9 28.2 Buildings -17.3 -20.4 3.8 -25.1 -16.6 5.1 6.7 6.5 8.0 -4.5 -5.3 -2.7 -19.1 -19.6 -11.4 10.8 Civil engineering -16.6 6.3 26.5 -2.6 1.7 27.1 52.5 55.7 25.1 -1.9 2.5 -12.1 11.0 2.2 -5.5 31.8 MARKET SERVICES, year-on-year growth rates, % Services, total -2.8 -0.3 2.7 -0.1 0.5 1.1 3.5 2.0 4.3 1.1 3.5 3.1 -1.4 -2.1 5.0 1.3 Transportation and storage 0.0 -0.1 6.2 -0.2 0.6 1.6 7.2 6.1 7.0 4.5 2.3 3.1 0.4 -1.5 2.8 0.8 Information and communication activities -2.9 0.4 1.1 0.9 1.7 0.6 5.0 -0.3 0.6 -0.5 1.5 2.0 -0.2 1.0 4.4 1.2 Professional, scientific and technical activities -7.6 -2.1 -1.8 -1.2 -3.1 -0.6 -4.7 -2.5 6.6 -5.7 3.4 -0.6 -10.1 -11.2 11.1 -0.7 Administrative and support service activities -4.5 3.7 2.5 5.5 3.7 5.4 0.2 -1.6 1.8 10.1 14.1 15.4 1.7 2.0 7.5 6.2 Distributive trades, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* -3.6 -1.0 2.4 2.1 -2.2 3.2 2.4 -1.2 5.7 2.6 4.9 6.7 -4.3 -3.4 1.4 2.2 Real turnover in retail trade -2.2 -3.7 0.0 -2.6 -4.6 -0.7 -0.7 -1.0 2.3 -0.8 0.8 1.5 -5.2 -4.6 -3.9 -0.9 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles -6.3 4.7 7.2 11.1 3.4 11.6 8.6 -1.7 12.8 9.0 11.6 15.6 -2.7 -0.2 14.0 8.4 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade 0.8 -0.2 3.8 1.1 -1.4 4.7 6.2 3.0 6.0 0.1 0.2 2.0 0.7 -4.6 -0.2 2.3 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, %, new methodology from 2009 onwards Total, overnight stays 1.2 0.3 -0.5 -1.5 2.9 0.6 -2.0 -14.0 -3.4 3.9 6.8 28.1 3.4 2.2 3.2 4.0 Domestic tourists, overnight stays -4.9 -3.4 -3.5 -5.3 -2.4 0.5 -3.4 -8.1 -7.7 1.6 6.8 12.7 0.7 -4.6 -3.5 4.3 Foreign tourists, overnight stays 5.6 2.8 1.4 0.9 5.6 0.7 -0.6 -17.4 -1.4 5.6 6.9 37.9 4.8 5.8 6.4 3.8 Accommodation and food service activities -1.1 -1.4 2.1 -3.0 0.5 2.9 2.8 3.3 1.2 1.1 6.8 4.5 0.9 -0.6 1.3 3.9 AGRICULTURE, y-o-y growth rates, % Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EUR m 480.4 478.4 506.9 111.1 123.2 139.6 113.6 122.8 132.5 138.0 102.5 111.4 45.1 37.1 41.0 49.3 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**) Sentiment indicator -16.9 -13.2 -2.2 -14.4 -12.0 -11.3 -8.4 -1.9 -0.1 1.5 4.1 5.1 -13.2 -11.6 -11.3 -12.4 Confidence indicator - in manufacturing -11 -5 2 -6 -4 -2 -1 3 3 3 6 5 -5 -4 -3 -4 - in construction -41 -22 -11 -23 -18 -16 -14 -10 -10 -10 -11 -15 -22 -16 -16 -17 - in services -12 -12 5 -13 -11 -10 -5 6 6 11 15 16 -12 -10 -12 -12 - in retail trade 2 2 9 0 8 3 2 6 10 18 17 14 13 4 7 16 Consumer confidence indicator -35 -33 -22 -34 -33 -34 -30 -26 -17 -17 -15 -10 -36 -33 -31 -37 Source of data: SURS. Note: 1Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. *Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels. **Seasonally adjusted data. 2013 2014 2015 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -0.4 8.0 -0.2 -1.4 3.7 0.8 0.0 6.1 5.2 -1.3 4.7 2.9 1.5 3.5 2.6 6.4 7.1 0.0 4.8 6.8 - 6.0 74.1 30.2 0.0 -27.5 69.7 17.6 10.1 -18.7 -25.3 20.3 -4.5 -24.1 -52.5 -14.9 -3.8 28.9 -35.3 2.3 8.0 -0.4 7.7 2.5 1.0 6.3 1.0 0.1 8.3 6.9 1.2 6.4 5.1 3.8 8.3 3.4 7.0 8.0 1.2 6.0 8.1 -1.3 5.5 -21.6 -19.4 -13.8 -9.7 -4.7 -15.3 -6.0 -15.7 -13.0 -16.2 -13.7 -18.1 -2.7 1.8 -3.0 -2.8 -6.2 -2.4 - 31.4 6.8 34.5 28.8 44.6 47.2 45.0 30.4 27.7 27.5 6.7 -1.8 -10.5 4.6 -2.7 6.0 -1.7 -6.9 -9.8 -12.1 3.1 0.8 6.2 4.7 8.5 9.8 11.3 -0.2 13.6 15.9 -4.0 -5.1 -12.6 7.0 -0.3 -6.7 -8.3 -5.2 -0.5 -2.7 41.5 6.3 49.1 41.1 63.0 65.1 60.4 44.6 34.1 32.5 11.6 0.4 -8.7 4.5 -4.1 11.9 0.9 -7.5 -12.8 -15.3 0.3 1.9 2.8 2.9 4.7 2.3 2.5 1.3 7.0 3.3 2.7 1.8 -0.6 2.0 0.9 5.7 3.8 1.4 2.6 5.1 - - 1.3 2.8 6.5 5.9 8.9 4.6 6.1 7.6 7.3 3.6 9.8 2.5 2.4 8.9 -2.0 5.7 3.2 0.8 2.1 6.2 -1.9 2.3 5.3 6.0 3.8 1.1 0.2 -2.1 3.4 -0.4 -1.0 -0.3 -0.7 -0.6 -0.9 3.2 2.4 2.9 0.2 2.9 0.5 -1.4 -7.2 -6.3 -1.2 -0.6 -1.4 -5.1 17.5 9.8 -4.1 -0.5 -9.0 -7.1 2.8 5.8 2.0 -4.5 1.7 1.0 3.6 6.4 0.5 0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -0.2 -3.7 4.2 -0.7 2.0 8.8 9.6 12.0 13.4 12.8 16.0 12.3 13.3 20.1 - - 2.7 4.8 2.2 1.9 3.2 2.5 -3.2 -2.9 8.4 1.1 7.9 2.9 0.7 4.2 2.0 6.3 6.4 2.6 8.0 9.8 - -1.4 0.1 -1.1 -0.6 -0.5 3.0 -3.2 -2.8 3.0 -0.8 4.8 -0.7 -1.3 -0.3 -1.2 2.9 0.9 -0.8 2.5 2.8 10.4 16.3 8.8 6.9 10.1 1.5 -3.4 -3.0 19.4 5.7 13.6 9.4 4.0 13.9 7.6 12.1 15.2 8.7 17.1 21.2 1.8 10.2 5.1 5.2 8.4 5.8 -0.1 3.3 6.3 2.3 9.4 1.6 0.1 -1.4 -6.8 3.4 4.3 -2.2 2.0 6.2 -3.2 0.1 -0.4 -3.4 -2.1 7.8 -2.9 4.8 -5.1 -1.3 -4.7 6.0 -0.7 5.6 6.2 12.4 2.2 6.1 8.1 6.7 -2.3 -0.9 -6.9 -5.7 2.4 -3.6 1.0 -1.3 -7.7 -8.7 -5.8 8.2 -0.7 -3.6 9.6 9.9 1.0 10.5 -2.9 7.4 - -4.0 1.1 4.3 -0.2 -5.8 15.5 -4.9 8.3 -3.8 2.1 -4.2 4.5 -0.7 13.9 4.0 15.7 3.2 3.7 14.2 6.3 - 0.7 4.1 1.4 2.0 5.1 4.2 2.7 2.9 0.7 4.5 -1.6 3.5 0.2 -0.4 6.9 8.1 5.5 4.5 5.2 3.7 41.7 48.5 38.4 36.0 39.2 42.6 39.4 40.7 48.0 38.8 45.7 47.4 40.9 49.7 34.1 32.1 36.3 37.1 37.0 37.4 - - -10.5 -11.0 -8.8 -9.0 -7.4 -5.3 -0.2 -0.3 1.2 -1.7 0.3 2.2 0.9 1.4 2.8 4.0 5.5 5.0 5.2 5.1 3.5 6.9 -1 -2 -3 0 0 2 3 5 6 2 2 3 2 4 4 5 9 4 6 6 6 8 -15 -17 -15 -17 -10 -16 -5 -8 -6 -12 -11 -9 -12 -10 -12 -10 -10 -15 -15 -14 -16 -15 -7 -10 -5 -6 -4 3 9 7 6 6 7 11 12 11 12 16 16 18 16 15 15 15 -5 -2 9 0 -3 1 17 1 11 10 10 18 22 13 23 19 9 21 17 5 5 16 -34 -32 -29 -31 -29 -31 -25 -22 -17 -21 -13 -13 -20 -17 -14 -17 -14 -12 -11 -6 -14 -5 LABOUR MARKET 2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 2015 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 7 8 9 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 920.2 913.4 917.9 913.8 910.5 916.5 912.9 919.8 917.5 921.3 919.7 917.5 911.5 909.8 910.2 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)' 810.0 793.6 797.8 795.0 794.4 795.8 784.2 799.6 803.0 804.4 798.0 805.0 794.4 793.2 795.5 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 37.0 38.2 35.4 38.9 38.1 38.4 31.7 37.1 37.5 35.1 32.8 30.5 38.1 38.1 38.1 In industry, construction 263.1 252.2 252.4 252.5 253.5 252.9 249.0 252.9 254.1 253.8 250.4 255.2 253.4 253.1 254.0 Of which: in manufacturing 182.9 177.7 178.3 177.6 177.5 177.8 177.3 178.2 178.6 179.2 178.8 179.9 177.6 177.3 177.6 in construction 59.8 54.3 54.0 54.6 55.7 54.6 51.5 54.6 55.4 54.5 51.8 55.3 55.5 55.5 56.0 In services 510.0 503.2 510.0 503.6 502.8 504.6 503.5 509.7 511.4 515.5 514.9 519.3 502.9 502.0 503.4 Of which: in public administration 50.7 49.1 48.8 49.3 49.1 48.9 48.7 49.0 49.0 48.5 48.1 48.2 49.1 49.2 48.9 in education, health-services, social work 120.9 121.0 122.2 121.1 120.5 121.6 121.6 122.4 121.6 123.1 123.3 124.1 120.3 120.0 121.2 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 717.0 698.7 703.0 700.0 699.6 699.2 693.8 703.5 706.1 708.8 704.2 712.9 699.8 698.6 700.5 In enterprises and organisations 662.6 647.6 652.6 648.5 647.9 648.1 645.2 653.1 654.7 657.2 654.6 661.5 648.0 647.0 648.6 By those self-employed 54.5 51.1 50.5 51.5 51.7 51.1 48.6 50.4 51.3 51.6 49.7 51.4 51.8 51.6 51.9 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 93.0 94.9 94.8 95.0 94.7 96.6 90.4 96.1 97.0 95.6 93.8 92.1 94.6 94.6 95.0 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 110.2 119.8 120.1 118.8 116.1 120.7 128.8 120.2 114.5 116.9 121.6 112.5 117.1 116.6 114.7 Female 52.2 57.4 59.6 56.7 57.0 58.9 61.2 59.4 58.4 59.6 60.0 57.7 57.3 57.4 56.5 By age: 15 to 29 24.9 28.8 30.4 27.7 26.7 31.6 33.6 30.5 27.4 30.2 30.0 26.5 27.0 26.7 26.3 aged over 50 38.2 38.9 37.3 39.3 38.1 37.3 39.0 37.7 36.5 36.0 37.8 36.8 38.6 38.3 37.5 Primary education or less 33.3 34.2 33.8 34.1 32.6 33.6 36.4 33.8 32.1 32.8 35.3 32.0 32.9 32.7 32.3 For more than 1 year 55.2 55.4 59.9 54.3 55.0 57.7 60.7 59.9 59.1 59.7 61.1 60.1 54.7 54.5 55.7 Those receiving benefits 33.9 33.0 26.6 33.7 30.3 28.7 32.7 26.2 23.9 23.7 28.7 22.4 31.0 30.5 29.4 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 12.0 13.1 13.1 13.0 12.8 13.2 14.1 13.1 12.5 12.7 13.2 12.3 12.9 12.8 12.6 Male 11.5 12.5 12.0 12.5 11.9 12.4 13.5 12.1 11.1 11.4 12.3 11.0 12.0 11.9 11.7 Female 12.6 13.8 14.3 13.7 13.8 14.1 14.8 14.2 14.1 14.2 14.4 13.8 13.8 13.9 13.6 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE 5.3 6.0 -4.6 -6.0 -1.9 9.3 2.7 -9.4 -4.8 6.9 -1.4 -7.9 0.5 -0.5 -1.9 New unemployed first-job seekers 16.3 19.1 18.5 2.6 3.4 9.4 4.2 2.7 3.3 8.4 3.5 2.2 1.0 0.9 1.5 Redundancies 90.3 88.7 83.9 18.5 19.6 23.5 25.9 17.3 17.7 23.1 24.4 16.3 7.7 5.5 6.4 Registered unemployed who found employment 58.3 65.1 74.0 18.1 15.8 14.1 20.7 21.4 16.6 15.3 21.8 19.0 5.3 4.1 6.4 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 43.1 37.3 33.2 9.1 9.2 9.9 6.8 7.9 9.2 9.3 7.5 7.5 2.9 2.9 3.4 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 33.9 30.5 25.1 31.7 29.8 27.8 26.3 25.7 24.8 23.6 22.6 23.3 30.4 29.8 29.3 As % of labour force 3.7 3.3 2.7 3.5 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 3.3 3.3 3.2 Source of data: SURS, PDII, ESS. Note: 'In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly Figure for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. 2013 2014 2015 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 916.7 917.5 915.3 911.4 913.0 914.4 920.2 919.8 919.4 918.0 916.5 918.1 922.3 922.2 919.4 918.5 919.9 920.6 917.9 917.3 917.3 798.0 798.2 791.3 781.6 783.3 787.7 796.6 800.1 802.1 801.8 801.7 805.5 806.4 806.8 800.0 794.3 797.4 802.5 803.0 804.9 807.1 38.5 38.4 38.4 31.6 31.7 32.0 36.8 37.0 37.3 37.5 37.5 37.6 35.2 35.1 35.1 32.6 32.7 33.0 30.5 30.5 30.5 254.8 254.6 249.3 248.3 248.5 250.0 252.0 253.3 253.4 253.9 253.7 254.7 255.5 255.5 250.4 249.1 249.9 252.2 254.2 255.1 256.2 178.1 178.3 177.0 177.1 177.4 177.5 178.1 178.4 178.1 178.4 178.5 179.0 179.4 179.6 178.6 178.5 178.8 179.1 179.3 179.9 180.6 56.1 55.8 52.0 51.1 50.7 52.6 53.9 54.8 55.0 55.4 55.1 55.7 55.9 55.8 51.9 50.9 51.3 53.2 55.0 55.3 55.6 504.7 505.3 503.7 501.7 503.1 505.7 507.8 509.7 511.4 510.4 510.5 513.2 515.7 516.2 514.5 512.6 514.7 517.3 518.2 519.2 520.4 48.8 49.0 48.9 48.6 48.7 48.9 48.9 49.0 49.1 49.1 48.9 48.9 48.7 48.5 48.3 48.0 48.1 48.2 48.2 48.0 48.3 121.6 121.8 121.3 121.1 121.7 122.1 122.3 122.5 122.5 121.3 121.1 122.4 122.9 123.3 123.1 122.6 123.4 123.9 124.0 124.1 124.1 701.7 701.5 694.4 691.5 693.0 696.9 700.8 704.0 705.6 705.1 704.9 708.2 710.9 711.2 704.4 701.0 703.6 708.2 710.9 712.7 714.9 649.7 649.9 644.8 643.1 644.8 647.8 651.0 653.6 654.7 654.1 653.6 656.4 658.6 659.0 654.0 651.8 654.3 657.6 659.6 661.3 663.5 52.0 51.7 49.6 48.5 48.2 49.1 49.8 50.4 51.0 51.0 51.3 51.7 52.3 52.2 50.4 49.1 49.3 50.6 51.4 51.4 51.4 96.3 96.7 97.0 90.1 90.3 90.7 95.8 96.1 96.5 96.7 96.9 97.4 95.5 95.6 95.5 93.3 93.8 94.3 92.0 92.2 92.1 118.7 119.3 124.0 129.8 129.8 126.7 123.6 119.7 117.4 116.2 114.8 112.6 115.9 115.4 119.5 124.3 122.6 118.1 114.9 112.4 110.2 58.5 58.7 59.4 61.4 61.2 61.0 60.3 59.1 58.6 58.9 58.6 57.7 59.9 59.6 59.5 60.9 59.9 59.2 58.5 57.6 56.8 30.8 31.5 32.5 33.9 33.9 33.1 31.9 30.3 29.2 28.1 27.4 26.7 30.4 30.1 30.2 30.8 30.2 29.0 27.7 26.4 25.4 37.0 36.8 37.9 39.2 39.1 38.8 38.4 37.6 37.1 36.9 36.6 35.9 35.7 35.6 36.7 38.1 37.9 37.3 37.0 36.8 36.7 32.7 33.0 35.2 36.5 36.9 35.7 34.7 33.7 33.2 32.5 32.0 31.7 32.0 32.1 34.4 36.1 35.9 33.9 32.7 31.9 31.4 56.6 57.1 59.4 61.0 60.6 60.5 60.7 59.9 59.2 59.0 58.9 59.2 59.5 59.6 60.1 61.5 61.0 60.8 60.3 59.9 60.0 28.2 28.0 29.9 33.8 33.0 31.3 27.4 26.0 25.2 24.7 23.8 23.2 23.2 22.4 25.5 29.4 29.4 27.3 23.1 22.4 21.8 13.0 13.0 13.5 14.2 14.2 13.9 13.4 13.0 12.8 12.7 12.5 12.3 12.6 12.5 13.0 13.5 13.3 12.8 12.5 12.3 12.0 12.1 12.1 13.0 13.7 13.7 13.2 12.6 12.1 11.7 11.4 11.2 10.9 11.1 11.1 12.0 12.6 12.5 11.7 11.3 11.0 10.7 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.4 14.2 14.0 14.2 14.2 13.9 14.3 14.2 14.2 14.6 14.4 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.6 4.1 0.6 4.7 5.8 -0.1 -3.0 -3.1 -4.0 -2.3 -1.2 -1.4 -2.2 3.3 -0.5 4.0 4.8 -1.7 -4.5 -3.2 -2.5 -2.1 6.0 2.0 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.7 5.9 1.5 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.8 7.2 7.0 9.3 13.1 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.3 5.8 6.6 4.8 6.3 7.1 6.2 9.8 12.5 5.9 6.0 5.8 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.2 3.5 6.2 6.0 8.5 7.6 7.6 6.3 5.6 4.3 6.7 6.3 5.0 4.0 6.2 6.5 9.0 7.3 6.0 5.7 3.8 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.1 1.9 2.6 2.5 2.8 3.0 2.7 3.5 3.4 3.2 2.7 2.8 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.5 28.5 27.9 27.1 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.0 25.7 25.4 25.0 24.7 24.6 24.6 23.4 22.8 22.6 22.3 22.8 23.1 23.6 23.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5 WAGES EUR m 2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 2015 2014 Q2 15 Jun 15 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, nominal y-o-y growth rates, % TOTAL 1540 1535 1544 0.1 -0.2 1.1 -1.0 -0.5 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.2 0.5 Private sector activities (A-N; R-S) 1495 1489 1499 0.8 0.7 1.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.3 0.4 Public service activities (OPQ) 1675 1671 1680 -2.2 -2.3 0.3 -3.6 -3.0 -1.6 -1.1 -1.1 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.8 Industry (B-E) 1529 1538 1534 2.5 2.6 3.2 1.9 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.7 2.7 3.4 2.9 1.4 Trad. market services (GHI) 1369 1354 1389 0.3 0.1 1.0 -0.6 -0.1 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.9 1.3 0.2 Other market services (J-N; R-S) 1686 1672 1674 -0.3 -1.3 -0.3 -1.9 -1.5 -0.6 -1.1 -0.4 0.5 -0.5 -0.8 -0.5 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 1311 1265 1287 -1.1 0.8 0.7 -0.8 1.1 0.0 3.0 0.4 -0.3 2.3 0.5 -0.7 B Mining and quarrying 2128 1966 1997 3.6 -2.0 5.9 4.1 -6.8 -2.9 -2.4 2.9 8.3 10.7 2.0 -8.9 C Manufacturing 1483 1502 1493 2.5 2.8 3.3 1.6 2.9 3.0 3.6 3.9 2.8 3.1 3.2 2.1 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 2340 2233 2303 3.3 3.0 2.6 6.2 2.8 3.6 -0.1 5.2 -1.1 6.5 -0.1 -4.4 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 1475 1450 1461 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.3 0.1 1.0 1.3 -0.2 2.2 1.5 2.2 1.3 F Constrution 1192 1169 1180 -2.5 -1.4 0.3 -2.4 -2.1 0.1 -1.4 -0.1 0.7 -0.2 0.9 -0.7 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 1395 1384 1421 0.8 0.4 1.2 -0.2 0.0 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.3 0.4 H Transportation and storage 1466 1447 1483 -0.4 -0.2 1.1 -1.1 0.2 -0.9 0.8 0.9 0.0 0.3 3.0 0.7 I Accommodation and food service activities 1081 1055 1077 -0.8 -0.4 -0.2 -1.3 -0.7 -0.6 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.6 -2.0 -2.2 J Information and communication 2074 2087 2067 -0.4 -1.4 0.1 -0.6 -2.7 -1.1 -1.4 -2.8 1.7 0.8 0.8 2.6 K Financial and insurance activities 2212 2243 2295 1.1 0.1 1.2 -2.1 1.2 1.2 0.3 -0.2 2.7 -0.2 2.3 3.9 L Real estate activities 1489 1465 1447 -0.6 -0.3 -1.2 -1.1 0.2 -0.6 0.2 -0.8 -1.1 -0.5 -2.4 -1.1 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 1715 1712 1711 -1.1 -2.4 1.1 -2.2 -3.4 -1.5 -2.6 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.2 0.8 N Administrative and support service activities 1016 1008 1002 0.7 0.0 2.4 -2.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 3.3 2.7 2.6 1.2 0.3 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 1744 1748 1741 -1.8 -1.4 1.0 -2.4 -2.1 -0.6 -0.6 -0.9 1.2 2.1 1.5 1.8 P Education 1622 1622 1623 -3.3 -3.3 0.0 -5.4 -4.2 -2.0 -1.3 -1.2 -0.1 0.7 0.7 0.5 Q Human health and social work activities 1676 1662 1692 -1.3 -2.0 -0.1 -2.3 -2.3 -2.2 -1.4 -1.2 -0.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 1614 1594 1622 -2.8 -3.0 -0.5 -5.7 -3.8 -1.4 -1.0 -0.4 -0.5 0.2 -1.1 -0.5 S Other service activities 1376 1347 1343 -0.9 -0.4 -1.1 -0.6 -0.7 -1.1 0.9 -1.4 -0.7 -0.3 -2.2 -1.9 Source of data: SURS, calculations by IMAD. 2013 2014 2015 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.7 1.6 0.4 1.0 0.5 1.7 1.7 0.7 1.6 1.1 1.0 1.4 0.2 -0.3 1.6 0.8 -0.2 1.2 1.3 0.8 1.5 1.4 2.7 0.9 1.5 0.8 2.0 2.0 0.5 1.8 1.3 1.0 1.7 0.0 -0.7 1.9 1.1 -0.3 1.7 -0.9 -1.0 -1.5 -1.2 -1.2 -0.9 -0.2 -0.1 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.1 2.7 3.5 3.1 3.3 5.8 2.1 2.2 1.8 4.0 4.3 1.8 4.2 2.2 2.2 4.1 0.2 -0.1 4.2 2.8 0.4 2.6 1.2 0.1 2.0 0.9 0.9 1.7 0.8 -0.1 1.4 1.0 0.2 1.4 0.6 2.4 0.9 -0.1 0.1 0.4 1.5 0.8 1.8 -0.4 -1.9 -1.0 -0.3 0.4 -1.4 1.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 -0.8 -0.9 0.8 -2.2 -0.8 -0.1 -2.1 0.7 -1.3 -2.0 0.6 0.9 1.9 6.2 -1.7 2.3 0.9 2.1 -2.3 -0.8 1.8 1.5 3.6 2.3 -2.1 1.5 -0.9 0.3 -1.3 -2.0 -1.5 3.6 5.1 -13.0 3.3 -8.1 19.1 -0.9 7.2 10.4 7.3 10.1 12.2 9.9 -0.2 0.9 5.5 -4.0 -20.3 -0.5 -1.0 -5.5 -7.7 2.4 4.4 3.9 4.0 5.3 2.4 2.5 1.8 4.3 4.6 1.1 3.7 2.7 2.5 4.4 0.3 1.1 4.8 3.0 0.6 3.2 7.4 -0.9 -5.9 1.8 11.9 2.3 -1.2 -0.9 -1.0 -0.1 10.3 9.5 -3.0 -0.1 2.9 -0.4 -9.8 -2.8 3.5 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.8 2.2 0.2 0.5 -1.3 1.1 0.8 4.8 2.7 -2.0 3.8 2.3 1.6 2.7 -0.2 1.0 3.0 1.0 -0.6 0.6 -1.1 -2.5 -0.5 -1.4 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.2 -1.4 0.7 0.1 1.4 1.1 -0.9 -1.0 -0.1 -1.0 -1.8 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.5 0.8 0.8 2.2 1.1 0.2 1.6 0.9 0.7 1.7 1.0 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.6 1.9 1.1 2.5 2.5 -2.7 3.0 1.3 0.8 0.5 -0.1 -0.5 0.6 0.9 -0.8 0.9 0.4 7.1 1.5 -0.5 1.6 1.0 2.0 0.8 1.4 0.8 -0.6 2.4 -0.1 1.4 0.5 0.0 -1.3 1.7 1.6 -0.5 0.6 -1.2 -2.7 -2.0 -2.4 -3.2 -1.0 -1.2 -0.4 -1.3 -1.1 -2.3 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -6.9 3.6 0.2 1.5 0.9 -0.2 1.7 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.8 0.5 6.5 -1.4 -0.7 1.5 2.7 -3.0 1.5 0.3 0.3 -1.1 2.8 4.3 0.8 0.3 1.0 -1.7 7.5 -1.0 0.5 8.5 -1.8 5.1 2.7 -1.6 4.8 0.5 0.4 -0.4 -1.1 -0.9 -0.5 -1.6 -1.6 -0.3 -0.1 -1.0 -0.4 -1.8 -2.7 -2.6 -1.1 -1.6 -0.5 -1.0 -1.6 -2.2 -2.1 -2.6 -3.0 -1.6 -0.3 2.3 -0.2 -1.7 3.4 2.9 -0.3 2.1 2.4 0.7 3.7 1.0 1.9 -0.4 2.1 2.0 0.9 1.0 2.1 -0.3 3.2 3.8 2.8 2.2 3.2 2.5 3.6 2.1 2.1 0.7 1.1 1.9 0.4 -0.1 0.5 -0.5 -2.0 0.8 0.8 -1.0 -1.5 -1.5 -0.8 -0.3 0.8 0.9 1.9 1.6 1.9 2.8 0.8 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.0 0.2 1.0 0.8 -1.5 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -1.5 -1.2 -0.5 -0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 -1.8 -0.4 -1.8 -1.3 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 0.7 0.3 1.2 0.4 1.1 0.5 -0.4 0.6 -0.2 0.2 0.9 0.2 -0.7 -1.4 -0.5 -1.1 -0.4 0.8 -1.6 -0.7 -1.7 0.8 -1.0 1.5 0.0 -1.4 -2.6 0.7 -0.5 -1.4 0.3 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 0.9 -0.5 2.3 -1.6 -1.0 -1.7 -2.1 -0.7 0.8 0.3 -0.8 -0.3 -1.8 -1.7 -3.0 -2.8 -1.9 -1.1 -2.1 -3.4 -3.0 PRICES AND INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS 2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 2015 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 7 8 9 10 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 2.6 1.8 0.2 1.5 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.6 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 2.6 2.2 1.4 1.3 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 4.1 3.6 -0.3 3.6 4.1 2.3 1.0 -0.6 -1.0 -0.7 -0.3 1.1 4.4 4.3 3.5 2.4 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 6.5 7.0 3.6 7.5 7.4 3.0 2.7 4.4 3.6 3.7 4.2 2.1 7.5 7.5 7.1 3.0 Clothing and footwear -0.2 0.2 -0.9 -1.2 1.0 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 -0.1 -1.6 -0.9 -1.8 1.1 0.1 1.7 0.3 Housing, water, electricity, gas 3.8 3.1 0.1 2.9 2.8 4.6 1.4 0.3 -0.3 -0.8 -1.6 -1.3 3.4 2.7 2.1 3.9 Furnishings, household equipment 0.1 -1.2 -1.2 -1.8 -1.2 -0.6 -0.9 -0.2 -2.0 -1.6 -1.8 -1.9 -1.3 -0.8 -1.5 -0.4 Medical, pharmaceutical products 0.4 -0.5 -0.1 -2.1 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.7 -0.9 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.0 Transport 3.3 0.3 0.2 -0.5 0.5 -0.4 -0.2 1.9 -0.1 -0.9 -4.5 -4.4 2.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.6 Communications -2.4 -1.2 -1.9 -1.9 1.2 -0.1 -1.4 -0.5 -2.8 -2.8 -0.5 -1.3 0.0 2.5 1.1 1.6 Recreation and culture 1.4 0.1 0.7 -0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 -0.1 -0.2 3.0 4.2 1.5 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.9 Education 2.9 2.6 0.1 4.6 1.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 4.6 0.1 -0.5 0.1 Catering services 4.5 6.5 1.1 8.8 7.0 1.6 0.9 1.7 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.2 9.6 9.9 2.0 2.0 Miscellaneous goods & services 2.4 1.3 1.6 2.7 0.5 -0.5 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.9 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.7 HCPI 2.8 1.9 0.4 1.8 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 -0.5 -0.8 2.8 2.2 1.5 1.1 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) 2.0 1.6 1.0 1.4 1.9 1.2 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.4 2.0 2.1 1.7 1.6 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total 0.9 0.0 -0.6 0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.8 -1.1 -0.5 -0.1 0.1 0.6 -0.3 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 Domestic market 1.0 0.3 -1.1 0.3 0.1 -0.3 -1.0 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.2 Non-domestic market 0.7 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 -0.6 -0.9 -0.6 -0.8 0.1 0.7 0.5 1.3 -0.6 -0.2 -0.9 -0.9 euro area 0.1 -0.4 -0.7 0.0 -0.7 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -0.6 0.8 0.7 1.0 -0.8 -0.3 -1.0 -1.0 non-euro area 2.0 0.3 1.1 0.7 -0.3 0.0 1.1 0.8 1.8 0.6 0.1 1.8 -0.3 0.0 -0.6 -0.4 Import price indices 1.9 -0.4 -1.4 -0.5 -0.3 -1.5 -2.1 -1.4 -1.0 -1.2 -0.7 0.2 1.2 -0.4 -1.6 -1.5 PRICE CONTROL,1 y-o-y growth rates, % Energy prices 12.7 0.2 -1.9 0.1 -0.7 -4.1 -4.6 -0.2 -1.5 -1.0 -9.0 -7.5 3.8 -1.3 -4.2 -5.9 Oil products 13.0 1.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 -0.4 -0.9 4.2 1.7 -2.0 -11.9 -9.6 5.5 -0.3 -3.5 -2.4 Transport & communications 1.6 11.3 11.1 8.6 17.3 10.9 14.6 15.8 7.3 7.3 1.1 0.0 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 Other controlled prices2 -0.6 -1.5 3.6 -2.9 -0.8 1.5 2.2 5.7 3.2 3.2 5.0 0.5 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 2.7 Direct control - total 9.2 1.2 0.5 0.5 1.0 -0.8 -1.0 2.6 0.4 -0.1 -7.5 -6.4 4.3 0.5 -1.6 -1.4 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS3, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate,4 nominal -1.2 1.0 0.3 0.5 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.9 0.0 -1.0 -3.1 -3.7 1.6 2.0 1.3 1.4 Real (deflator HICP) -1.1 1.3 -0.1 0.6 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.9 -0.7 -1.4 -3.6 -4.8 2.6 2.6 1.4 1.3 Real (deflator ULC) -3.0 0.7 -2.8 0.1 0.8 3.2 -0.6 -1.9 -2.5 -6.2 -6.0 USD/EUR 1.2856 1.3 1.3 1.3066 1.3246 1.3611 1.3697 1.3712 1.3252 1.2492 1.1270 1.1047 1.3080 1.3310 1.3348 1.3635 Source of data: SURS, ECB; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 The structure of groups varies. Data for individual years are not fully comparable to those published previously. On 1 July 2007, the electricity market was liberalised. 2 After a longer period of unchanged prices, at the beginning of 2013, the Decree on the pricing of mandatory local public services in the field of environmental protection (Official Gazette of the RS, No. 87/2012) transferred the responsibility for approving price changes to local communities. 3 Change of the source for effective exchange rate series as of April 2012: a new source, ECB; 4 Harmonised effective exchange rate - a group of 20 EU Member States and 17 euro area countries; an increase in value indicates appreciation of the national currency and vice versa. 2013 2014 2015 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1.3 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.7 -0.5 -0.7 -0.4 2.2 2.2 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.0 -0.9 -1.0 -1.1 -1.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -1.2 -1.3 -0.3 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.4 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.4 4.9 6.0 3.5 3.5 3.8 3.7 3.4 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.1 1.8 0.6 1.1 0.1 -2.9 -2.2 -3.2 2.5 -0.6 -1.1 -1.3 -0.5 1.7 -1.2 -1.7 -2.6 -0.5 1.4 -0.6 -3.1 -2.4 -1.7 -1.2 0.0 4.8 5.2 3.6 0.4 0.1 -0.9 0.4 1.3 0.2 -0.5 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -1.3 -1.5 -1.9 -1.3 -1.0 -1.3 -1.5 -1.9 -0.4 -0.9 -1.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.1 0.4 -0.7 -1.6 -2.3 -2.1 -2.3 -1.1 -1.3 -1.4 -1.9 -2.1 -2.3 -2.1 -1.4 -0.4 0.0 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.6 -0.7 -1.0 -0.9 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 0.4 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 1.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 -0.9 0.2 1.3 2.3 2.1 0.8 -0.2 -0.9 -0.4 -0.1 -2.2 -4.8 -4.6 -4.0 -5.1 -4.0 -4.2 -4.5 -0.5 -1.5 -1.6 -1.3 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 0.6 -2.0 -3.1 -3.4 -3.5 -2.4 -2.5 -2.6 1.2 0.1 -0.8 -0.5 -2.6 1.7 0.4 -0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 0.1 1.8 3.0 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.3 1.3 2.2 1.0 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.5 1.4 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.4 2.0 1.7 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.8 -0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 -3.2 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.5 -3.6 5.8 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.6 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -0.7 1.4 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.6 -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 -1.0 -0.9 -1.4 -1.1 -0.9 -0.6 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -1.1 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.2 -1.0 -1.2 -1.1 -1.0 -0.9 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -1.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.9 -0.4 -1.2 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.8 1.1 1.0 0.5 -1.5 -1.4 -1.2 -1.8 -1.2 -2.0 -1.4 -1.2 -1.2 -0.5 -0.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.6 1.2 0.8 1.0 0.8 -0.3 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.3 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.9 1.3 2.2 1.8 0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.2 1.1 3.0 1.6 1.0 -0.2 -2.0 -0.9 -1.5 -2.0 -2.7 -1.9 -1.1 -1.2 -1.1 -0.8 -1.1 -0.5 -0.9 -2.3 -1.5 -0.9 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 -3.8 -2.5 -3.4 -5.7 -4.6 -2.9 0.9 1.3 0.2 -1.9 -2.9 0.5 0.7 -4.0 -9.8 -9.4 -7.6 -8.5 -6.7 -7.4 -9.0 -0.2 1.6 0.8 -2.5 -0.9 1.5 6.0 5.2 4.1 1.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -5.7 -13.2 -12.3 -10.2 -11.5 -8.4 -8.8 -10.9 8.0 8.0 14.6 14.6 14.6 15.8 15.8 15.8 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.8 3.7 1.4 1.4 6.4 6.4 4.2 3.6 2.3 3.6 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.4 5.7 5.8 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.1 -1.0 -0.1 0.1 -2.0 -1.2 0.6 3.6 3.6 1.9 0.0 -0.7 1.2 1.2 -2.6 -8.4 -7.9 -6.2 -7.4 -5.6 -6.2 -7.6 1.6 1.5 0.9 0.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -0.8 -1.2 -2.2 -2.9 -4.2 -4.5 -3.6 -3.0 -3.2 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.0 1.2 0.9 1.1 0.6 -0.1 -0.7 -1.2 -1.5 -1.3 -1.4 -2.6 -3.4 -4.7 -5.4 -4.8 -4.3 -4.3 1.3493 1.3704 1.3610 1.3659 1.3823 1.3813 1.3732 1.3592 1.3539 1.3316 1.2901 1.2673 1.2472 1.2331 1.1621 1.1350 1.0838 1.0779 1.1150 1.1213 1.0996 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 2015 2013 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BPM6 methodology, EUR m Current account 954 2,023 2,607 585 474 479 505 666 703 733 451 806 215 141 143 190 Goods -36 708 1,210 249 233 33 281 299 309 320 342 434 134 149 -6 90 Exports 21,256 21,692 22,989 5,540 5,330 5,499 5,549 5,727 5,721 5,992 5,872 6,073 1,810 1,925 1,511 1,894 Imports 21,292 20,984 21,780 5,292 5,096 5,466 5,268 5,428 5,411 5,672 5,530 5,639 1,677 1,776 1,516 1,804 Services 1,509 1,761 1,736 486 533 341 321 443 578 395 407 490 165 189 199 146 Exports 5,106 5,314 5,555 1,305 1,552 1,315 1,177 1,382 1,595 1,401 1,254 1,453 449 532 541 479 Imports 3,597 3,553 3,819 819 1,018 974 856 939 1,018 1,006 847 963 283 343 342 333 Primary income -292 -172 -87 -62 -177 17 67 -7 -114 -33 -132 -11 -75 -137 -13 -27 Receipts 1,138 1,078 1,403 283 234 287 333 403 321 346 276 391 62 85 81 67 Expenditures 1,430 1,249 1,491 345 410 270 266 410 436 380 408 403 136 222 94 95 Secondary income -227 -275 -252 -88 -116 88 -165 -68 -70 51 -166 -107 -10 -59 -38 -18 Receipts 931 925 942 192 202 335 182 242 196 322 185 202 82 66 59 77 Expenditures 1,157 1,201 1,193 280 317 247 347 310 266 271 351 309 92 125 97 96 Capital account 41 71 -176 -13 -4 67 0 -39 13 -150 30 -28 -4 13 -3 -14 Financial account 1,028 1,350 2,339 241 425 138 518 572 688 561 1,055 839 216 27 157 241 Direct investment -466 -47 -600 175 -103 -169 109 -545 -350 185 -326 100 -52 -100 47 -50 Assets -439 24 146 29 -124 46 131 45 -42 12 30 124 -93 -33 -48 -43 Liabilities 27 71 746 -146 -21 214 21 590 308 -173 356 24 -41 67 -95 7 Portfolio investment 220 -3,967 -3,968 -2,094 424 -2,167 -3,097 -1,221 80 270 624 1,726 349 130 89 204 Financial derivatives 89 32 -3 -13 10 15 -2 -9 2 7 22 7 -9 6 2 2 Other investment 1,215 5,327 6,821 2,154 11 2,489 3,351 2,340 1,030 102 755 -1,017 -134 -91 21 81 Assets 1,634 732 4,800 405 -308 -127 1,710 2,031 298 761 819 -1,579 140 -32 -268 -7 Other equity 155 152 82 68 2 68 12 70 1 -1 8 -2 -1 1 1 0 Currency and deposits 1,216 564 5,037 180 -163 128 1,515 1,964 469 1,089 525 -1,499 19 -5 -35 -123 Loans 371 1 -300 171 -96 -46 -78 -48 -98 -75 -80 -94 33 -12 -81 -2 Insurance, pension schemes, and standardised guarantee schemes 28 -10 8 -18 0 -4 17 -3 -4 -2 12 0 -6 0 0 0 Trade credit and advances -49 19 -14 1 -43 -281 204 83 -51 -249 346 33 86 -16 -144 118 Other assets -88 6 -14 3 -8 7 40 -35 -19 0 8 -16 9 1 -8 -1 Liabilities 418 -4,595 -2,021 -1,748 -319 -2,616 -1,640 -309 -732 659 64 -561 274 59 -289 -88 Other equity 0 -29 3 0 0 -30 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Currency and deposits 1,026 -4,169 -831 -1,943 433 -2,748 -1,075 -54 21 278 -325 -498 267 545 -255 143 Loans -938 -269 -1,239 63 -558 -91 -365 -297 -691 115 378 -70 -99 -344 48 -262 Insurance, pension schemes, and standardised guarantee schemes 41 39 -54 31 -10 -2 -1 -40 -2 -10 -7 0 10 -3 -3 -3 Trade credit and advances 285 -182 -141 73 -163 240 -214 81 -46 39 13 1 69 -136 -63 37 Other liabilities 5 16 240 28 -21 14 16 -2 -13 238 5 7 26 -2 -16 -3 Special drawing rights (SDR) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserve assets -31 5 89 19 83 -30 157 8 -74 -3 -20 23 61 82 -3 4 Net errors and omissions 33 -743 -92 -330 -45 -408 13 -55 -28 -22 574 62 6 -127 17 65 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods 2,112 2,163 2,341 533 531 579 551 590 573 629 577 N/A 173 204 149 178 Intermediate goods 12,138 12,425 13,032 3,159 3,115 3,100 3,231 3,254 3,237 3,202 3,261 N/A 1,012 1,115 912 1,088 Consumer goods 6,811 6,960 7,676 1,824 1,672 1,791 1,773 1,874 1,887 2,134 1,991 N/A 614 604 449 619 Import of investment goods 2,402 2,573 2,760 667 564 696 647 696 635 796 654 N/A 189 204 155 205 Intermediate goods 14,005 13,635 13,541 3,448 3,282 3,448 3,284 3,364 3,366 3,403 3,448 N/A 1,057 1,165 987 1,130 Consumer goods 5,671 5,906 6,382 1,485 1,475 1,554 1,517 1,611 1,603 1,657 1,597 N/A 505 509 438 528 Source of data: BS, SURS. Note: The methodology of the Slovenian balance of payments and international investment position statistics follows the recommendations in the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual released by the International Monetary Fund. 2015 10 11 12 10 11 12 178 89 212 136 54 315 285 186 196 307 14 381 349 104 280 134 -23 340 223 191 392 63 -6 -25 75 41 165 140 17 142 135 -31 205 180 45 96 91 32 219 35 136 262 1,994 1,866 1,639 1,795 1,756 1,998 1,951 1,845 1,930 2,034 1,546 2,142 2,167 1,998 1,828 1,813 1,865 2,194 1,950 1,956 2,166 1,931 1,872 1,664 1,721 1,715 1,832 1,811 1,828 1,788 1,899 1,576 1,936 1,987 1,953 1,731 1,722 1,833 1,974 1,915 1,820 1,904 133 116 92 88 82 151 155 141 147 191 222 165 130 129 136 138 98 171 193 139 159 448 414 454 388 355 434 461 449 472 553 542 501 478 418 504 396 392 465 490 459 504 315 297 362 301 272 283 305 309 325 362 320 337 348 289 369 258 295 294 297 320 346 -14 -7 39 17 15 36 26 33 -66 37 -143 -8 8 -63 21 -59 -63 -11 33 -37 -8 65 72 151 78 85 170 168 122 112 137 85 99 92 91 163 70 71 135 175 94 123 79 79 112 61 71 134 142 89 178 101 228 107 84 154 142 129 134 146 141 130 131 -3 -14 105 -43 -84 -37 -37 -5 -26 -55 -34 20 31 -6 27 -37 -90 -39 -38 -48 -21 79 63 192 63 60 59 74 94 73 59 43 94 120 81 121 56 67 62 68 61 73 83 77 87 106 144 97 111 99 100 114 77 75 89 88 95 93 157 101 106 109 94 19 6 42 1 1 -2 7 -29 -16 19 -17 10 20 52 -223 8 16 6 -2 -20 -6 268 23 -153 183 -99 434 180 156 237 302 -55 441 108 184 269 438 34 584 221 173 446 -188 40 -20 95 -16 31 -103 -94 -348 78 -230 -198 30 39 116 -37 -41 -248 -114 -16 231 10 72 -36 81 -13 63 15 -7 37 92 -127 -8 125 1 -114 40 41 -51 25 51 48 198 33 -16 -14 3 32 118 87 385 14 104 190 95 -38 -230 77 82 197 139 68 -183 27 -1,823 -371 -408 -2,738 49 -946 -219 -56 -312 106 286 425 -662 506 193 303 129 1,051 328 347 5 1 9 -1 -3 2 -10 2 -1 4 -3 0 10 -4 2 -6 20 7 3 1 4 424 1,799 265 436 2,542 372 1,246 456 637 533 93 404 -343 772 -328 264 -171 663 -675 -152 -191 281 52 -459 538 1,099 74 1,177 328 526 271 -98 125 -234 598 398 481 -261 599 -1,002 -176 -400 70 -4 2 1 5 6 69 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -2 2 0 6 -1 -2 0 147 -7 -12 459 1,049 7 1,028 410 527 411 -4 62 -369 690 768 457 -343 410 -870 -230 -399 31 13 -90 7 -26 -59 24 -22 -50 -69 1 -30 1 -32 -44 -8 -49 -22 -45 -18 -31 -1 -1 -1 6 6 6 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 4 4 4 0 0 0 35 2 -318 24 105 75 87 -75 71 -55 -109 114 101 -30 -321 19 128 199 -80 68 46 -1 48 -41 41 -39 38 -29 16 -22 -14 15 -19 33 -30 -3 7 -1 2 -6 6 -17 -144 -1,748 -725 102 -1,443 -299 -69 -128 -112 -262 -191 -278 109 -175 725 218 -90 -64 -327 -24 -210 0 0 -30 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -244 -1,839 -665 311 -1,299 -88 -24 -6 -23 28 45 -52 16 -17 278 -84 -131 -110 -190 -201 -107 10 -20 -81 13 -187 -191 39 -160 -176 -165 -256 -270 -52 -70 237 664 -224 -62 7 173 -250 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 -13 -13 -13 -1 -1 -1 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 0 0 0 88 107 45 -267 57 -3 -58 14 126 -107 -3 63 87 -31 -18 -367 231 148 -167 25 143 3 4 7 45 -14 -16 -14 37 -25 -17 23 -19 61 -54 231 7 36 -38 23 -20 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 6 -35 62 116 -21 -7 11 4 -2 -20 -52 -14 38 -27 24 -76 32 -43 12 54 71 -72 -407 45 -153 121 -112 -1 57 -25 -52 49 -261 27 213 295 40 238 0 2 60 197 197 185 168 179 204 203 183 204 207 161 205 226 202 201 169 190 221 204 211 N/A 1,163 1,069 869 1,079 1,018 1,135 1,117 1,062 1,075 1,156 893 1,187 1,195 1,099 909 1,025 1,058 1,184 1,145 1,095 N/A 623 599 569 559 569 645 634 583 657 662 475 750 729 707 698 607 626 769 616 660 N/A 221 241 234 187 203 257 244 224 229 230 182 223 267 272 257 193 210 254 240 232 N/A 1,237 1,208 1,003 1,112 1,051 1,121 1,109 1,139 1,117 1,188 974 1,204 1,200 1,195 1,008 1,093 1,137 1,223 1,214 1,145 N/A 549 516 490 474 517 526 547 552 513 551 472 580 593 554 511 494 534 578 535 509 N/A 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 MONETARY INDICATORS AND INTEREST RATES 2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 221 233 263 229 233 233 233 233 232 231 232 233 233 239 Central government (S. 1311) 5,057 6,563 7,240 5,048 5,451 5,361 4,999 5,108 5,024 4,995 4,965 4,881 6,563 6,448 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 610 581 685 609 610 600 600 601 601 604 610 570 581 585 Households (S. 14, 15) 9,267 8,917 8,762 9,159 9,141 9,107 9,099 9,050 9,059 9,052 9,031 8,996 8,917 8,879 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 19,470 14,902 11,729 19,152 19,022 18,889 18,832 18,639 18,633 18,501 18,102 17,918 14,902 14,691 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 2,135 1,763 1,485 2,028 2,000 1,990 1,999 1,992 1,983 1,978 1,962 1,966 1,763 1,993 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 5,194 5,020 3,684 5,389 4,957 5,423 5,255 5,190 5,320 5,311 5,198 4,752 5,020 5,014 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 34,558 29,620 25,155 34,336 33,765 34,040 33,902 33,612 33,754 33,705 33,198 32,569 29,620 29,594 In foreign currency 1,309 1,097 950 1,264 1,236 1,235 1,223 1,203 1,192 1,177 1,152 1,144 1,097 1,090 Securities, total 5,862 7,026 7,469 5,780 6,177 6,091 5,657 5,762 5,669 5,554 5,513 5,366 7,026 6,921 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 29,582 27,051 25,843 30,070 29,665 30,497 29,943 30,228 30,184 30,194 30,091 29,645 27,051 27,255 Overnight 8,678 8,558 10,157 8,997 8,919 8,806 8,923 9,124 9,055 8,812 8,861 8,729 8,558 8,779 With agreed maturity -short-term 7,056 6,689 5,955 7,140 7,148 7,712 7,626 7,652 7,696 8,260 8,222 8,110 6,689 6,730 With agreed maturity -long-term 13,780 11,569 9,267 13,775 13,424 13,787 13,189 13,203 13,159 12,843 12,688 12,495 11,569 11,422 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 68 235 464 158 174 192 205 249 274 279 320 311 235 324 Deposits in foreign currency, total 552 487 510 549 520 548 536 520 541 521 506 511 487 493 Overnight 372 324 354 363 361 354 340 342 362 333 324 334 324 328 With agreed maturity -short-term 123 91 84 128 103 103 113 97 95 109 104 98 91 93 With agreed maturity -long-term 56 72 72 57 55 91 82 81 84 79 78 79 72 72 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.20 0.11 0.07 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 2.31 1.86 0.98 2.10 2.01 2.01 1.97 1.89 1.78 1.65 1.56 1.48 1.46 1.36 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 5.48 5.40 5.06 5.03 5.49 5.39 5.30 5.34 5.31 5.11 5.49 5.17 5.36 5.38 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 5.32 3.86 4.41 3.70 3.48 5.68 3.03 2.66 3.37 3.73 4.71 4.59 6.58 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operation^ 0.8^ 0.5^ 0.1^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.2^ 0.2^ 0.25 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates 0.570 0.221 0.210 0.206 0.209 0.201 0.210 0.221 0.226 0.223 0.226 0.223 0.275 0.292 6-month rates 0.830 0.336 0.309 0.329 0.324 0.299 0.321 0.336 0.342 0.340 0.342 0.327 0.373 0.396 LIBOR 3-month rates 0.066 0.021 0.013 0.022 0.020 0.018 0.018 0.020 0.018 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.022 6-month rates 0.146 0.080 0.066 0.090 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.072 0.075 0.083 Source of data: BS, EUROSTAT. 2014 2015 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1|2|3|4|5|6|7 239 245 209 227 228 229 230 230 237 246 263 265 282 445 642 838 1,045 1,299 6,437 6,476 6,154 6,262 6,296 6,459 6,512 6,581 6,936 7,010 7,240 7,443 7,502 7,163 7,368 7,380 7,387 7,449 585 584 582 577 582 594 596 606 611 618 685 654 631 633 633 633 635 634 8,849 8,853 8,850 8,835 8,810 8,808 8,814 8,813 8,807 8,791 8,762 8,842 8,802 8,834 8,826 8,847 8,836 8,821 14,599 14,544 14,531 14,429 14,039 13,867 13,764 13,586 12,603 12,511 11,729 11,823 11,726 11,674 11,569 11,493 11,396 11,190 1,968 1,962 1,945 1,929 1,921 1,881 1,858 1,873 1,665 1,654 1,485 1,463 1,455 1,642 1,519 1,511 1,466 1,470 5,294 4,818 5,012 4,863 3,896 4,347 4,108 3,732 4,037 3,915 3,684 3,657 3,696 3,479 3,353 3,365 3,008 3,181 29,706 29,154 29,298 29,017 27,756 28,005 27,645 27,220 26,425 26,191 25,155 25,232 25,179 24,885 24,707 24,661 24,240 24,316 1,075 1,046 1,036 1,025 1,019 1,010 1,011 994 986 973 950 1,059 1,003 983 957 955 937 904 6,944 7,028 6,731 6,845 6,763 6,933 6,987 6,968 7,240 7,326 7,469 7,576 7,615 7,539 7,566 7,574 7,512 7,487 27,501 27,034 27,187 27,067 26,577 27,060 26,869 26,318 26,492 26,309 25,843 25,930 25,800 25,389 25,884 25,894 25,715 25,974 9,066 8,979 9,278 9,390 9,582 10,236 10,138 9,870 10,329 10,398 10,157 10,731 10,947 10,842 11,200 11,458 11,533 12,080 6,888 6,893 7,215 7,088 6,768 6,876 6,928 6,720 6,477 6,250 5,955 5,708 5,610 5,350 5,302 5,217 5,032 4,896 11,264 10,852 10,389 10,252 9,875 9,585 9,368 9,265 9,172 9,155 9,267 9,078 8,838 8,762 8,916 8,707 8,574 8,411 283 310 305 337 352 363 435 463 514 506 464 413 405 435 466 512 576 587 488 490 496 496 508 510 516 538 528 535 510 566 604 601 585 612 620 616 324 333 335 336 350 345 354 354 348 353 354 401 447 442 433 464 469 468 93 90 94 92 90 96 92 115 110 110 84 86 77 81 75 71 77 73 71 67 67 68 68 69 70 69 70 72 72 79 80 78 77 77 74 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 1.22 1.15 1.07 1.04 1.00 0.93 0.89 0.85 0.81 0.74 0.66 0.58 0.51 0.46 0.39 0.37 0.36 5.42 5.26 5.58 5.23 4.84 5.2 5.01 5.09 4.65 4.72 4.38 4.17 4.85 3.34 3.49 3.5 3.39 3.96 4.21 6.63 5.51 1.53 5.05 2.82 4.66 3.07 4.50 3.89 2.40 3.39 4.58 .. 0.2^ 0.2^ 0.2^ 0.2^ 0.1^ 0.1^ 0.1^ 0.0^ 0.0^ 0.0^ 0.0^ 0.0^ 0.05 0.0^ 0.0^ 0.0^ 0.0^ 0.05 0.288 0.305 0.330 0.325 0.241 0.205 0.192 0.097 0.083 0.081 0.081 0.063 0.048 0.027 0.006 -0.010 -0.014 -0.019 0.387 0.407 0.430 0.417 0.333 0.305 0.292 0.200 0.184 0.182 0.176 0.152 0.126 0.097 0.074 0.057 0.049 0.049 0.018 0.021 0.017 0.016 0.012 0.013 0.020 0.008 0.008 0.006 -0.020 -0.466 -0.889 -0.802 -0.812 -0.791 -0.782 -0.762 0.081 0.078 0.075 0.068 0.069 0.072 0.073 0.059 0.057 0.053 0.023 -0.403 -0.773 -0.707 -0.727 -0.704 -0.711 -0.710 PUBLIC FINANCE 2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 2015 2013 Q^ Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 11 1 12 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS-IMF methodology), current prices, EUR m GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 14,999.1 14,728.2 15,492.0 3,495.0 3,733.1 4,080.2 3,634.1 3,905.1 3,686.5 4,266.2 3,635.6 3,971.9 1,201.0 1,604.1 Current revenues 14,030.6 13,637.4 14,377.0 3,293.1 3,510.9 3,648.8 3,409.9 3,695.2 3,501.4 3,770.4 3,413.4 3,756.1 1,144.3 1,293.5 Tax revenues 13,118.3 12,648.4 13,191.6 3,107.4 3,188.1 3,406.0 3,147.0 3,317.0 3,237.5 3,490.1 3,252.4 3,524.1 1,067.1 1,196.5 Taxes on income and profit 2,656.6 2,137.4 2,385.9 510.9 442.5 606.9 595.6 686.3 466.3 637.7 601.7 786.4 190.0 229.1 Social security contributions 5,244.1 5,127.2 5,272.5 1,283.4 1,261.3 1,317.6 1,303.9 1,302.5 1,300.7 1,365.3 1,339.5 1,353.4 427.8 469.7 Taxes on payroll and workforce 25.6 23.4 20.2 6.1 5.5 6.3 4.8 5.3 4.7 5.4 4.5 4.9 2.0 2.5 Taxes on property 233.9 254.1 244.2 67.8 91.3 70.8 19.2 29.3 100.3 95.4 26.9 41.7 35.7 15.3 Domestic taxes on goods and services 4,876.1 5,027.4 5,191.2 1,224.7 1,357.0 1,406.5 1,170.9 1,300.1 1,350.5 1,369.6 1,246.0 1,322.2 408.8 485.0 Taxes on international trade & transactions 82.5 77.5 77.7 22.9 18.2 17.0 19.1 19.0 18.5 21.1 21.3 21.5 6.1 5.1 Other taxes -0.6 1.3 -0.2 -8.4 12.4 -19.2 33.5 -25.7 -3.5 -4.5 12.5 -6.0 -3.2 -10.2 Non-tax revenues 912.3 989.0 1,185.4 185.7 322.8 242.7 262.9 378.2 264.0 280.3 161.1 232.0 77.2 97.0 Capital revenues 62.5 67.1 51.4 13.1 12.8 30.4 11.6 10.5 13.1 16.2 10.8 16.2 5.5 20.2 Grants 9.2 32.7 18.9 2.7 14.7 2.4 1.3 11.0 4.3 2.2 2.4 1.7 0.5 1.6 Transferred revenues 51.7 52.7 4.5 0.4 50.9 0.9 1.4 0.4 0.5 2.3 1.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 Receipts from the EU budget 845.1 938.4 1,040.3 185.6 143.8 397.7 209.9 188.0 167.2 475.2 207.8 197.5 50.2 288.5 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TOTAL EXPENDITURES 16,125.7 16,286.4 16,751.2 4,011.6 3,846.2 4,291.2 4,290.2 3,957.1 4,009.3 4,494.6 4,290.6 3,981.1 1,367.6 1,591.3 Current expenditures 6,813.5 6,838.4 7,042.1 1,819.0 1,496.7 1,679.8 1,923.6 1,692.4 1,581.3 1,844.8 1,969.7 1,678.5 565.1 582.1 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3,727.7 3,616.7 3,610.4 936.6 871.2 900.4 919.5 908.4 883.3 899.2 926.1 904.5 295.5 319.8 Expenditures on goods and services 2,373.0 2,238.9 2,232.3 565.9 526.7 587.2 531.7 538.8 546.9 614.8 500.2 558.0 183.1 231.1 Interest payments 647.9 840.1 1,097.4 295.2 77.8 148.0 451.8 221.9 131.0 292.6 497.2 178.4 78.8 2.3 Reserves 64.9 142.6 102.1 21.3 20.8 44.2 20.5 23.3 20.1 38.2 46.2 37.6 7.7 28.9 Current transfers 7,687.0 7,671.3 7,591.9 1,893.7 1,922.4 1,906.6 1,984.3 1,848.4 1,883.4 1,875.8 1,936.5 1,864.1 628.6 660.9 Subsidies 502.7 519.5 467.4 111.9 77.5 139.6 205.5 80.3 71.3 110.2 201.2 79.1 48.5 56.6 Current transfers to individuals and households 6,384.2 6,343.1 6,335.0 1,585.9 1,626.0 1,554.5 1,561.9 1,600.0 1,621.1 1,552.1 1,564.3 1,592.9 513.9 523.9 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 741.0 734.2 714.3 185.2 185.7 205.3 204.5 147.7 173.2 188.8 156.5 180.5 63.3 78.8 Current transfers abroad 59.0 74.4 75.2 10.7 33.2 7.2 12.3 20.4 17.8 24.7 14.5 11.6 2.9 1.6 Capital expenditures 915.0 1,031.8 1,444.4 146.3 259.7 484.2 188.1 269.8 414.6 572.0 175.3 285.0 125.2 236.4 Capital transfers 319.9 319.5 270.0 52.0 69.3 155.6 31.5 50.7 67.9 119.8 37.9 58.7 29.6 84.5 Payments to the EU budget 390.3 425.5 402.9 100.5 98.0 65.0 162.7 95.9 62.2 82.1 171.1 94.8 19.1 27.3 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -1,126.6 -1,558.2 -1,259.2 -516.6 -113.1 -211.0 -656.1 -52.0 -322.8 -228.3 -654.9 -9.3 -166.6 12.8 Source of data: Bulletin of Government Finance. Note: In line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the general government are not consolidated. 2014 2015 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1,231.9 1,196.6 1,205.6 1,286.1 1,337.4 1,281.7 1,175.8 1,166.8 1,343.9 1,382.2 1,317.0 1,569.3 1,312.5 1,075.1 1,248.0 1,439.8 1,197.0 1,335.1 1,199.3 1,140.1 1,070.6 1,185.4 1,279.3 1,230.5 1,130.0 1,147.2 1,224.2 1,260.4 1,185.2 1,325.1 1,276.7 998.9 1,137.8 1,327.0 1,151.1 1,278.0 1,135.8 994.4 1,016.8 1,116.3 1,072.3 1,128.4 1,029.8 1,058.3 1,149.4 1,157.6 1,117.5 1,216.2 1,221.6 945.9 1,084.9 1,272.4 1,036.3 1,215.5 207.0 199.3 189.3 241.3 185.7 259.4 75.3 191.5 199.5 197.0 204.1 236.6 207.6 202.6 191.5 323.0 187.7 275.7 430.5 445.0 428.5 435.7 432.5 434.2 436.8 432.9 431.1 438.2 439.1 488.0 454.6 440.4 444.5 455.0 449.0 449.4 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 2.1 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.7 6.8 6.6 5.9 11.9 6.0 11.4 23.6 37.5 39.2 27.6 40.4 28.2 11.1 10.0 5.8 9.0 11.9 20.9 478.9 329.6 362.4 444.9 439.2 416.0 489.1 383.2 478.2 485.4 421.5 462.8 504.8 361.2 379.9 482.1 375.3 464.8 5.0 7.2 6.9 6.6 5.7 6.7 6.2 5.9 6.3 6.9 6.7 7.6 5.9 6.2 9.1 8.0 6.7 6.8 6.0 5.3 22.2 -25.9 1.4 -1.2 -3.0 5.9 -6.4 0.9 4.1 -9.1 36.0 -76.0 52.5 -6.5 4.2 -3.7 63.5 145.7 53.8 69.1 207.0 102.2 100.3 88.9 74.8 102.8 67.7 108.9 55.1 53.0 53.0 54.5 114.9 62.6 3.8 4.4 3.4 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.7 3.9 4.4 4.1 4.0 9.8 3.3 3.7 3.8 4.5 4.2 7.5 0.6 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.5 9.5 0.3 0.2 3.8 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.3 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 27.4 52.0 130.5 96.6 53.8 37.5 40.6 15.3 111.3 115.6 126.3 233.3 32.0 71.6 104.1 107.1 41.3 49.1 1,439.9 1,474.7 1,375.6 1,335.2 1,326.2 1,295.8 1,411.8 1,279.4 1,318.2 1,500.5 1,389.9 1,608.1 1,422.5 1,402.5 1,465.5 1,335.7 1,296.5 1,348.9 624.9 672.0 626.6 622.5 536.0 533.9 516.5 524.0 540.7 686.6 568.3 591.0 637.9 619.2 712.6 573.6 546.4 558.5 299.6 345.1 274.9 287.5 290.5 330.4 299.5 294.0 289.8 294.6 293.1 311.2 316.7 303.8 305.6 287.1 290.4 327.0 176.4 184.2 171.1 183.3 165.5 190.0 207.9 169.9 169.1 179.6 182.4 253.6 153.8 146.7 199.7 179.7 165.4 212.9 141.9 135.9 173.9 143.0 73.3 5.7 3.4 53.2 74.4 204.6 84.5 3.5 142.8 159.3 195.2 97.8 73.4 7.1 7.0 6.8 6.7 8.8 6.8 7.7 5.8 6.9 7.4 7.8 8.3 22.7 24.7 9.4 12.1 9.0 17.2 11.4 697.0 652.4 634.9 590.1 644.3 614.0 717.7 580.1 585.6 599.7 618.5 657.9 676.1 619.9 640.4 614.1 617.0 633.0 119.7 65.7 20.2 31.9 33.2 15.1 31.0 18.1 22.2 23.9 43.8 42.6 78.3 103.0 19.9 10.9 29.5 38.7 514.9 524.3 522.8 531.0 543.8 525.1 613.3 502.8 505.0 513.3 517.6 521.3 515.8 516.7 531.8 542.5 520.8 529.7 56.5 57.4 90.7 25.1 55.8 66.8 59.3 56.7 57.1 59.2 54.3 75.3 75.7 -3.8 84.6 56.0 62.1 62.4 6.0 5.0 1.3 2.0 11.4 7.0 14.0 2.4 1.3 3.3 2.7 18.7 6.3 4.0 4.2 4.6 4.8 2.2 68.6 59.1 60.4 75.0 92.5 102.3 129.7 131.4 153.4 151.2 141.8 285.2 63.9 43.5 67.9 93.1 83.3 108.6 1.7 9.4 20.4 14.8 20.3 15.6 22.6 22.8 22.4 44.3 31.0 40.9 10.3 17.0 10.6 20.3 14.4 24.1 47.7 81.7 33.3 32.7 33.1 30.0 25.2 21.0 16.0 18.7 30.3 33.1 34.3 102.9 33.9 34.7 35.4 24.8 -208.0 -278.0 -170.0 -49.1 11.2 -14.1 -236.0 -112.6 25.7 -118.4 -72.8 -38.8 -110.0 -327.4 -217.5 104.0 -99.5 -13.8 Acronyms Acronyms in the text AJPES - Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, BoS - Bank of Slovenia, CPI - Consumer Price Index, DDPO - Corporate income tax/CIT, EC - European Commission, ECB - European Central Bank, EIA - Energy Information Administration, EMU - European Monetary Union, ESA-2010 - European System of Accounts 2010, ESI - Economic Sentiment Indicator, ESS - Employment Service of Slovenia, EU - European System of Integrated Social Protection Statistics, EUR - Euro, EUROSTAT - Statistical Office of the European Union, GDP - Gross domestic product, HICP-Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, ICT - Information and Communication Technology, IMAD - Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, MF - Ministry of Finance, NEER - Nominal Effective Exchange Rate, NFI - Non-monetary Financial Institutions, OECD - Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, OI - core inflation, PDII - Pension and Disability Insurance Institute, PMI - Purchasing Managers Index, REER - Real Effective Exchange Rate, RS - Republic of Slovenia, SITC - Standard International Trade Classification, SKD - Standard Classification of Activities, SRE - Statistical Register of Employment, SURS - Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, TSA - Treasury Single Account, UL - Official Gazette , USD - US Dollar, VAT - value added tax, ZZZS - The Health Insurance Institute of Slovenia. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities A - Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B - Mining and quarrying, C - Manufacturing, 10 - Manufacture of food products, 11 - Manufacture of beverages, 12 - Manufacture of tobacco products, 13 - Manufacture of textiles, 14 - Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15 - Manufacture of leather and related products, 16 - Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17 - Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18 - Printing and reproduction ofrecorded media, 19- Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, 20 - Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21 - Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22 - Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23 - Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24 - Manufacture of basic metals, 25 - Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26 - Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27 - Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28 - Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c., 29- Manufacture ofmotor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, 30- Manufacture of other transport equipment, 31 - Manufacture of furniture, 32 - Other manufacturing, 33 - Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D-Electricity, gas, steamand air conditioning supply,E-Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediationactivities, F - Construction, G - Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H - Transportation and storage, I - Accommodation and food service activities, J - Information and communication, K - Financial and insurance activities, L - Real estate activities, M - Professional, scientific and technical activities, N - Administrative and support service activities, O - Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P - Education, Q - Human health and social work activities, R - Arts, entertainment and recreation, S - Other service activities, T - Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods- and services- producing activities of households for own use, U - Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AT-Austria, BA-Bosnia and Herzegovina, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, HR-Croatia, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IE-Ireland, IL-Israel, IT-Italy, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RS-Republic of Serbia, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America. Slovenian economic mirror July-August 2015, No. 7-8, Vol. XXI