7. NOVEMBER 2005 7 NOVEMBER 2005 št./No 300 17 RUDARSTVO IN PREDELOVALNE DEJAVNOSTI MINING AND MANUFACTURING št./No 34 POSLOVNE TENDENCE V PREDELOVALNIH DEJAVNOSTIH, SLOVENIJA, OKTOBER 2005 BUSINESS TENDENCY IN MANUFACTURING, SLOVENIA, OCTOBER 2005 Desezonirana vrednost kazalnika zaupanja v predelovalnih dejavnostih je bila v oktobru 2005 enaka kot v septembru 2005. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani je bila nižja za 3 odstotne točke, v primerjavi z lanskim povprečjem je vrednost padla za 2 odstotni točki. In October 2005 the seasonally adjusted value of the confidence indicator remained the same as in August 2005. In comparison to October 2004 the value was down by 3 percentage points and 2 percentage points below last year’s average. Na kazalnik zaupanja so vplivala višja raven skupnih naročil in nižja proizvodna pričakovanja ter zaloge končnih izdelkov. The confidence indicator was influenced by the rise of overall order-books and the fall of production expectations and stocks of finished products. Kazalniki stanj so se v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem večinoma izboljšali, pričakovanja za naslednje tri mesece so večinoma ugodna. The observed indicators for appreciation of the situation mainly improved in comparison to the previous month. The expectations for the next three months are mostly favourable. 1. KAZALNIK ZAUPANJA 1) V SLOVENIJI IN EU 2), JANUAR 1996 - OKTOBER 2005 1. CONFIDENCE INDICATOR 1) IN SLOVENIA AND EU 2), JANUARY 1996 – OCTOBER 2005 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % desezonirani podatki - Slovenija / seasonally adjusted data - Slovenia desezonirani podatki - EU / seasonally adjusted data - EU dolgoletno povprečje / long-term average ©SURS 1) Kazalnik zaupanja je povprečje odgovorov (ravnotežij) na vprašanja o proizvodnih pričakovanjih, skupnih naročilih in zalogah končnih izdelkov (obrnjen predznak). Podatki so desezonirani. The confidence indicator is an average of responses (balances) to questions on production expectations, overall order-books and stocks of finished products (the latter with inverted sign). Data are seasonally adjusted. 2) Vir / Source: http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/indicators/businessandconsumersurveys_en.htm. Podatki za EU za zadnji mesec niso na voljo./ Data for EU for the last month are not available. Statistične informacije, št. 300/2005 2 Rapid Reports No 300/2005 2. GIBANJE EKONOMSKIH KAZALNIKOV V PREDELOVALNIH DEJAVNOSTIH V SLOVENIJI, JANUAR 1996 - OKTOBER 2005 EVOLUTION OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS IN MANUFACTURING IN SLOVENIA, JANUARY 1996 - OCTOBER 2005 Ocena stanj Appreciation of situation Pričakovanja v naslednjih 3 mesecih Expectations in the next 3 months -40 -20 0 20 40 60 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Proizvodnja / Production -20 0 20 40 60 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Pričakovana proizvodnja / Production expectations -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Izvozna naročila / Export order-books -20 0 20 40 60 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Pričakovan izvoz / Expected export order-books -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Skupna naročila / Overall order-books -20 0 20 40 60 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Pričakovano skupno povpraševanje / Expected total demand -10 0 10 20 30 40 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Zaloge končnih izdelkov / Stocks of finished products -30 -20 -10 0 10 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Pričakovane cene / Selling price expectations 3,8 4,0 4,2 4,4 4,6 4,8 5,0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 ©SURS mesec / month Zagotovljena proizvodnja / Assured production -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje1) / Expected employment1) originalni podatki / raw data desezonirani podatki / seasonally adjusted data dolgoletno povprečje/ long-term average 1) Sezonska komponenta ni prisotna. / The seasonal component is not included. Statistične informacije, št. 300/2005 Rapid Reports No 300/2005 3 3. GIBANJE EKONOMSKIH KAZALNIKOV V PREDELOVALNIH DEJAVNOSTIH V SLOVENIJI IN EU, JANUAR 1996 - OKTOBER 20051) EVOLUTION OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS IN MANUFACTURING IN SLOVENIA AND EU, JANUARY 1996 - OCTOBER 20051) Ocena stanj Appreciation of situation Pričakovanja v naslednjih 3 mesecih Expectations in the next 3 months -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Proizvodnja / Production -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Pričakovana proizvodnja / Production expectations -60 -40 -20 0 20 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Izvozna naročila / Export order-books -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Pričakovan izvoz²) / Expected export order-books²) -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Skupna naročila / Overall order-books -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Pričakovano skupno povpraševanje²) / Expected total demand²) -10 0 10 20 30 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Zaloge končnih izdelkov / Stocks of finished products -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Pričakovane cene / Selling price expectations -2,0 0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 ©SURS mesec / month Zagotovljena proizvodnja²) / Assured production²) -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje²) / Expected employment²) Slovenija / Slovenia EU 1) Vir / Source: http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/indicators/businessandconsumersurveys_en.htm Podatki za EU za zadnji mesec niso na voljo. Podatki so desezonirani. / Data for EU for the last month are not available. Data are seasonally adjusted. 2) Kazalnik opazujejo v EU vsake tri mesece. / In the EU the indicator is observed every three months. Statistične informacije, št. 300/2005 4 Rapid Reports No 300/2005 4. GIBANJE EKONOMSKIH KAZALNIKOV V PREDELOVALNIH DEJAVNOSTIH V SLOVENIJI IN EU, 1. ČETRTLETJE 1996 - 4. ČETRTLETJE 2005 - ČETRTLETNI PODATKI EVOLUTION OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS IN MANUFACTURING IN SLOVENIA AND EU, 1st QUARTER 1996 – 4th QUARTER 2005 - QUARTERLY DATA 4.1 Omejitve v proizvodnji v Sloveniji Production obstacles in Slovenia 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 četrtletje / quarter šibko povpraševanje / weakness in demand ni omejitev / no limits težave s preskrbo / supply difficultuies hude omejitve / severe obstacles © SURS Graf o omejitvah v proizvodnji prikazuje delež zaposlenih, ki se soočajo z naslednjimi skupinami problemov: - Skupina "šibko povpraševanje" zajema zaposlene, ki imajo probleme z nezadostnim domačim povpraševanjem, nezadostnim tujim povpraševanjem in/ali konkurenčnim uvozom. - Skupina "ni omejitev" zajema zaposlene, ki nimajo nobenih proizvodnih težav. - Skupina "težave s preskrbo" zajema zaposlene, ki imajo probleme s pomanjkanjem delavcev, surovin, izdelkov, opreme in/ali finančne probleme. Ta skupina zajema še zaposlene, ki jih pri proizvodnji omejujeta tudi nejasna zakonodaja in negotove gospodarske razmere. - Skupina "hude omejitve" zajema zaposlene, ki imajo hkrati težave tako z dejavniki iz skupine "šibko povpraševanje" kot tudi z dejavniki iz skupine "težave s preskrbo". The chart on production obstacles shows the share of employees who are facing the following groups of problems: - Group "weakness in demand" includes employees who are facing insufficient domestic and foreign demand and competitive imports. - Group "no limits" includes employees with no limits to production. - Group "supply difficulties" includes employees who are facing shortage of labour in general, shortage of raw materials and semi-finished products, lack of appropriate equipment, problems with unpaid bills, financial problems and unclear economic conditions. - Group "severe obstacles" includes employees who are facing at the same time problems from the group "weakness in demand" and those from the group "supply difficulties". Statistične informacije, št. 300/2005 Rapid Reports No 300/2005 5 4.2 Ustreznost proizvodnih zmogljivosti glede na pričakovano povpraševanje v naslednjih 12 mesecih, Slovenija in EU Assessment of current production capacities according to expected demand in the next 12 months, Slovenia and EU 0 10 20 30 40 50 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 četrtletje / quarter % © SURS 4.3 Izkoriščenost proizvodnih zmogljivosti v Sloveniji in v EU1 Current capacity utilisation in Slovenia and EU1 75 77 79 81 83 85 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 četrtletje / quarter % desezonirani podatki - Slovenija / seasonally adjusted data - Slovenia desezonirani podatki - EU / seasonally adjusted data EU © SURS 4.4 Konkurenčni položaj na domačem trgu, trgih držav članic EU in trgih zunaj EU2 Competitive position on the domestic market, foreign market inside the EU and outside the EU2 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 četrtletje / quarter % na domačem trgu / on the domestic market na trgih držav EU / on the markets inside the EU na trgih zunaj EU / on the markets outside the EU © SURS 1 Prikazana je povprečna stopnja izkoriščenosti zmogljivosti (tehnično-tehnoloških, človeških itd.) / The chart shows the average capacity utilisation (technology, human resources, etc) 2 Podatki so desezonirani. / Data are seasonally adjusted. Statistične informacije, št. 300/2005 6 Rapid Reports No 300/2005 METODOLOŠKA POJASNILA METHODOLOGICAL EXPLANATIONS NAMEN STATISTIČNEGA RAZISKOVANJA PURPOSE OF STATISTICAL SURVEY Namen kvalitativne Ankete o poslovnih tendencah (PA-IND/M) je mesečno pridobivanje informacij o trenutnih stanjih glavnih ekonomskih kazalnikov ter ocenitev njihovega gibanja v naslednjih mesecih. Rezultati anket so osnova za izračun kazalnika zaupanja v predelovalnih dejavnostih in kazalnika gospodarske klime, ki vključuje poleg kazalnika zaupanja v predelovalnih dejavnostih tudi kazalnik zaupanja pri potrošnikih in kazalnik zaupanja v trgovini na drobno. The purpose of the qualitative Survey on Business Tendency (hereinafter: PA- IND/M) is to get monthly information about current situations of major economic indicators and to evaluate their movement in the following months. The results of the survey are the basis for evaluation of the confidence indicator in manufacturing and latter on also for the sentiment indicator, which also includes the consumer confidence indicator and the confidence indicator in retail trade. Panelno anketo o poslovnih tendencah v predelovalnih dejavnostih izvajamo v Sloveniji od aprila 1995 s poenotenim vprašalnikom, na podlagi poenotene metodologije in z enako periodiko, kot jo izvajajo v državah članicah Evropske unije že več desetletij. Zato so vsi podatki neposredno primerljivi. We have been carrying out the Survey on Business Tendency in Manufacturing in Slovenia since April 1995 with the harmonised questionnaire, methodology and periodicity, which have been used in EU Member States for several decades. Therefore, all data are directly comparable. ENOTA OPAZOVANJA OBSERVATION UNITS Opazujemo podjetja, ki so razvrščena v predelovalne dejavnosti, to je v oddelke Standardne klasifikacije dejavnosti (SKD) od 15 do 36, ter so bila izbrana v panel podjetij na podlagi dveh meril: We are monitoring units that are registered in manufacturing - divisions 15 to 36 of the Standard Classification of Activities (SKD). They were selected into the panel by two criteria: − velikosti podjetja (število zaposlenih, skladno z zakonom o gospodarskih družbah) in − the size of the enterprise (the number of employees in accordance with the Companies Act) and − razvrstitve podjetja po SKD-ju. − the classification of the enterprise according to the SKD. VIRI SOURCES Na vprašalnik odgovarjajo direktorji podjetij ali drugi vodilni delavci med 1. in 10. v mesecu. Rezultate pa objavimo že okoli 20. v istem mesecu. Respondents are managers of enterprises or other executives. They respond between the 1st and the 10th in the month. Results are published approximately on the 20th day of the current month. ZAJETJE COVERAGE V panelni vzorec smo zajeli vsa velika podjetja, 59 % srednjevelikih (ali 64 % zaposlenih) in 18 % malih podjetij (ali 22 % zaposlenih). Panelni vzorec pokriva 39 % podjetij vzorčnega okvira ali 76 % zaposlenih v predelovalnih dejavnostih. The panel includes all large enterprises, 59% of medium-sized enterprises (or 64% of employees) and 18% of small enterprises (or 22% of employees); the panel covers 39% of the enterprises of the studied population or 76% of employees in manufacturing. NAČIN ZBIRANJA PODATKOV METHOD OF DATA COLLECTING Anketo izvajamo mesečno po pošti, vsako četrtletje (januar, april, julij in oktober) pa mesečni anketi dodamo še sedem četrtletnih vprašanj. The survey is carried out monthly by mail; we include seven additional questions to the monthly survey each quarter (January, April, July and October). UTEŽEVANJE ODGOVOROV WEIGHTS FOR RESPONSES Odgovori so uteženi tako, da odražajo relativno pomembnost posameznega podjetja v vzorcu. Znotraj oddelkov SKD so odgovori uteženi s številom zaposlenih. Responses to individual questions are weighted so that they reflect the relative importance of an individual enterprise in the panel. Inside divisions of the Standard Classification of Activities (SKD), responses are weighted with the number of employees. NEODGOVORI NON-RESPONSES Neodgovore vsak mesec obdelamo skladno s poenoteno metodologijo; delež neodgovorov se giblje med 3 % in 15 % (povprečno 9 %). Non-responses are processed every month according to the harmonised methodology and vary between 3% and 15% (9% on average). DEFINICIJE DEFINITIONS Grafikoni prikazujejo ravnotežja po posameznih vprašanjih. Ravnotežje je razlika med pozitivnimi in negativnimi odgovori, izražena v odstotkih. The charts show the balance by individual questions. The balance is the difference between positive and negative answers, expressed in percent. The Statistične informacije, št. 300/2005 Rapid Reports No 300/2005 7 Ravnotežja prikazujejo gibanje opazovanih ekonomskih spremenljivk (stanj in pričakovanj), ne pa dejanskih velikosti ekonomskih kazalnikov. balance shows the movement of observed economic variables (present situation and future expectations), and not the real size of economic indicators. Ko so prikazane daljše časovne vrste podatkov ali primerjave kazalnikov z EU-jem, so vrednosti desezonirane. To so vrednosti, pri katerih je izključen vpliv sezone, vsebujejo pa trend-cikel in naključno komponento. Podatki za EU so desezonirani z metodo DAINTIES, za Slovenijo pa z metodo TRAMO/SEATS, ki temelji na modelih ARIMA. Pri oblikovanju modelov je upoštevano časovno obdobje od maja 1995 do januarja 2005, pri časovnih vrstah pričakovan izvoz, pričakovano skupno povpraševanje in povprečno število mesecev zagotovljene proizvodnje od januarja 1997 do januarja 2005, pri časovni vrsti stopnja izkoriščenosti zmogljivosti od drugega četrtletja 1995 do prvega četrtletja 2005, pri časovnih vrstah konkurenčni položaj podjetja na domačem trgu, konkurenčni položaj podjetja na trgih držav članic Evropske unije in konkurenčni položaj podjetja na trgih zunaj Evropske unije pa od prvega četrtletja 2001 do prvega četrtletja 2005. Zaradi narave podatkov se model za leto 2005 razlikuje v primerjavi z modelom za leto 2004 pri skupnih naročilih. Pri časovnih vrstah pričakovano zaposlovanje in stopnja izkoriščenosti zmogljivosti sezonska komponenta ni prisotna. In the charts with longer time series or by comparisons with EU indicators, data are seasonally adjusted. Values are adjusted for the seasonal component, but include the trend-cycle component and the irregular component. Data for EU are seasonally adjusted by the DAINTIES method and for Slovenia by the TRAMO/SEATS method, which is based on ARIMA models. The designing of the models is based on the time period from May 1995 to January 2005, the series expected export order-books, expected total demand and average assured production from January 1997 to January 2005, the series level of capacity utilisation from the second quarter of 1995 to the first quarter of 2005, and the series competitive position on the domestic market, competitive position on the foreign markets inside the EU and competitive position on the markets outside the EU from the first quarter of 2001 to the first quarter of 2005. Because of the nature of data, the model for 2005 differs from the model used in 2004 by overall order-books. In the time series expected employment and level of capacity utilisation the seasonal component is not present. Kazalnik zaupanja je povprečje odgovorov (ravnotežij) na vprašanja o proizvodnih pričakovanjih, skupnih naročilih in zalogah končnih izdelkov. (obrnjen predznak). The confidence indicator is defined as the arithmetic mean of the answers (balances) to the questions on production expectation, assessment of overall order-books and assessment of stocks of finished products (the latter with an inverted sign). OBJAVLJANJE PODATKOV PUBLISHING Sodelujoči v anketi prejmejo informacijo o oddelku SKD, v katerega se po dejavnosti razvrščajo in o predelovalnih dejavnostih, vendar le, če so izpolnili vprašalnik za tekoči mesec. Respondents participating in the survey receive the special information for the division in which they are classified and for manufacturing. They receive it only if they responded in the current month. Drugim uporabnikom so dostopni podatki na ravni predelovalnih dejavnosti in njenih oddelkov in po velikostnih razredih podjetij. Podatki so mesečno objavljeni v Statističnih informacijah – Poslovne tendence v predelovalnih dejavnostih in v podatkovni bazi SI-STAT na naslovu http://www.stat.si/. Other users can get data for manufacturing and its divisions and data for different size groups of enterprises. Data are published in the monthly Rapid Reports – Business tendency in manufacturing and in the database SI-STAT which is available on http://www.stat.si/eng/. MESEČNA VPRAŠANJA MONTHLY QUESTIONS − Proizvodni ritem v opazovanem mesecu: živahnejši, enak, šibkejši? − Production rhythm in the observed month: increased, remain unchanged, decreased? − Ocena ravni izvoznih naročil: višja kot normalno, normalna, nižja kot normalno? − Assessment of current export order-books: above normal, normal, below normal? − Ocena ravni skupnih naročil: višja kot normalno, normalna, nižja kot normalno? − Assessment of current overall order-books: above normal, normal, below normal? − Ocena ravni zalog končnih izdelkov: višja kot normalno, normalna, nižja kot normalno? − Assessment of current stock of finished products: above normal, normal, below normal? − Pričakovana proizvodnja v naslednjih 3 mesecih: naraščala, nespremenjena, padala? − Production expectations over the next 3 months: increase, remain unchanged, decrease? − Pričakovane cene v naslednjih 3 mesecih: naraščale, nespremenjene, padale? − Selling prices expectations over the next 3 months: increase, remain unchanged, decrease? − Pričakovano število zaposlenih v naslednjih 3 mesecih: povečalo, ostalo nespremenjeno, zmanjšalo? − Firm’s total employment expectations over the next 3 months: increase, remain unchanged, decrease? − Pričakovan izvoz v naslednjih 3 mesecih: naraščal, nespremenjen, padal? − Export orders expectations over the next 3 months: increase, remain unchanged, decrease? − Pričakovano skupno povpraševanje v naslednjih 3 mesecih: krepilo, enako, slabelo? − Expected total demand over the next 3 months: increase, remain unchanged, decrease? − Ob sedanjem proizvodnem ritmu je zagotovljena proizvodnja za: .... mesecev? − Duration of production assured by current overall order books: for … months? Statistične informacije, št. 300/2005 8 Rapid Reports No 300/2005 ČETRTLETNA VPRAŠANJA QUARTERLY QUESTIONS − Omejitveni dejavniki v proizvodnji: ni omejitev, nezadostno domače povpraševanje, nezadostno tuje povpraševanje, konkurenčen uvoz, pomanjkanje delavcev na splošno, pomanjkanje usposobljenih delavcev, pomanjkanje surovin, pomanjkanje polizdelkov, pomanjkanje ustrezne opreme, neplačništvo, finančni problemi, nejasna gospodarska zakonodaja, negotove gospodarske razmere, ostalo? − Limits to production: none, insufficient domestic demand, insufficient foreign demand, competitive imports, shortage of labour in general, shortage of skilled labour, shortage of raw materials, shortage of semi- finished products, lack of appropriate equipment, problems with unpaid bills, financial problems, unclear economic legislation, uncertain economic conditions, other? − Sedanje proizvodne zmogljivosti: prevelike, ustrezne, premajhne? − Assessment of current production capacity: more than sufficient, sufficient, not sufficient? − Sedanja stopnja izkoriščenosti zmogljivosti: .... odstotkov? − Current level of capacity utilisation: in percentage of full capacity? − Konkurenčni položaj podjetja na domačem trgu v zadnjih 3 mesecih: boljši, nespremenjen, slabši? − Competitive position on the domestic market over the past 3 months: improved, remained unchanged, deteriorated? − Konkurenčni položaj podjetja na trgih držav članic Evropske Unije v zadnjih 3 mesecih: boljši, nespremenjen, slabši? − Competitive position on the foreign markets inside the EU over the past 3 months: improved, remained unchanged, deteriorated? − Konkurenčni položaj podjetja na trgih izven Evropske Unije v zadnjih 3 mesecih: boljši, nespremenjen, slabši? − Competitive position on the markets outside the EU over the past 3 months: improved, remained unchanged, deteriorated? − Obseg novih naročil se je v zadnjih 3 mesecih: povečal, ostal nespremenjen, zmanjšal? − New orders over the past 3 months: increased, remain unchanged, decreased? KOMENTAR COMMENT Oktobra 2005 so direktorji ocenili tendence v predelovalnih dejavnostih enako kot pretekli mesec. Desezonirana vrednost kazalnika zaupanja je bila v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem enaka, v primerjavi z istim mesecem lani je bila nižja za 3 odstotne točke in 2 odstotni točki pod lanskim povprečjem. In October 2005, managers estimated business tendencies in manufacturing as being the same as in the previous month. The seasonally adjusted value of the confidence indicator remained the same as in September 2005. Compared to October 2004 the value of the confidence indicator fell by 3 percentage points and was 2 percentage points below last year’s average. PROIZVODNJA in PRIČAKOVANA PROIZVODNJA PRODUCTION and PRODUCTION EXPECTATIONS Desezonirana vrednost kazalnika proizvodnje je bila v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem višja za 1 odstotno točko. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila enaka in 5 odstotnih točk pod lanskim povprečjem. The seasonally adjusted value of the production indicator was up by 1 percentage point compared to the previous month. Compared to October 2004 it was the same and 5 percentage points below last year’s average. Desezonirana vrednost kazalnika proizvodnih pričakovanj za naslednje 3 mesece je bila v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem nižja za 2 odstotni točki. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani je bila nižja za 9 odstotnih točk in 4 odstotne točke pod lanskim povprečjem. The seasonally adjusted value of the production expectations for the next three months fell by 2 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to October 2004 it was down by 9 percentage points and 4 percentage points below last year’s average. IZVOZNA NAROČILA in PRIČAKOVANI IZVOZ EXPORT ORDER-BOOKS and EXPECTED EXPORT ORDER-BOOKS Desezonirana vrednost kazalnika ravni izvoznih naročil je bila v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem višja za 4 odstotne točke. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila nižja za 4 odstotne točke in 3 odstotne točke nad lanskim povprečjem. The seasonally adjusted value of the export order-books indicator was up by 4 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to October 2004 it was down by 4 percentage points and compared to last year’s average it was up by 3 percentage points. Desezonirana vrednost kazalnika pričakovanega izvoza za naslednje 3 mesece je bila v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem nižja za 7 odstotnih točk. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani je bila nižja za 9 odstotnih točk in 2 odstotni točki pod povprečjem lanskega leta. The seasonally adjusted value of the expected export order-books in the next three months was down by 7 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to October 2004 it was down by 9 percentage points and 2 percentage points below last year’s average. SKUPNA NAROČILA in PRIČAKOVANO SKUPNO POVPRAŠEVANJE OVERALL ORDER-BOOKS and EXPECTED TOTAL DEMAND Desezonirana vrednost kazalnika ravni skupnih naročil je bila v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem višja za 5 odstotnih točk. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila enaka in 3 odstotne točke nad povprečjem lanskega leta. The seasonally adjusted value of the overall order-books indicator rose by 5 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to October 2004 it was the same and 3 percentage points above last year’s average. Desezonirana vrednost kazalnika pričakovanega skupnega povpraševanja za naslednje 3 mesece je bila v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem višja za 3 odstotne točke. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila nižja za 9 odstotnih točk in enaka povprečju lanskega leta. The seasonally adjusted value of the expected total demand for the next three months rose by 3 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to October 2004 it was down by 9 percentage points and equal to last year’s average. ZALOGE KONČNIH IZDELKOV STOCKS OF FINISHED PRODUCTS Desezonirana vrednost kazalnika ravni zalog končnih izdelkov je bila v The seasonally adjusted value of the stocks of finished products indicator fell Statistične informacije, št. 300/2005 Rapid Reports No 300/2005 9 primerjavi s preteklim mesecem nižja za 3 odstotne točke. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila enaka in 1 odstotno točko nad povprečjem lanskega leta. by 3 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to October 2004 it was the same and compared to last year’s average it was up by 1 percentage point. PRIČAKOVANE CENE SELLING PRICE EXPECTATIONS Desezonirana vrednost kazalnika cenovnih pričakovanj za naslednje 3 mesece je bila višja za 4 odstotne točke glede na pretekli mesec. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani je bila nižja za 5 odstotnih točk in 1 odstotno točko pod povprečjem lanskega leta. The seasonally adjusted value of selling price expectations for the next three months rose by 4 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to October 2004 it was down by 5 percentage points and was 1 percentage point below last year’s average. ZAGOTOVLJENA PROIZVODNJA ASSURED PRODUCTION Ob oktobrskem proizvodnem ritmu imajo podjetja zagotovljeno proizvodnjo v povprečju za 4,2 meseca. To je za 0,1 meseca manj kot lani v tem mesecu in 0,2 meseca pod povprečjem lanskega leta. With the same production rhythm as in October 2005, production in enterprises is assured on average for the next 4.2 months. This is 0.1 month less than in October 2004 and 0.2 month below last year’s average. Največ podjetij (22,5 %) ima proizvodnjo zagotovljeno v povprečju za 3 mesece. Sledijo podjetja (17,1 %), ki imajo proizvodnjo zagotovljeno v povprečju za 2 meseca, in podjetja (15,9 %), ki imajo proizvodnjo zagotovljeno v povprečju za več kot 10 mesecev. Za pol meseca ima zagotovljeno proizvodnjo v povprečju 7,3 % podjetij, ob oktobrskem proizvodnem ritmu pa nima zagotovljene proizvodnje v povprečju 2,0 % podjetij. In most enterprises (22.5%) production is assured for three months. They are followed by enterprises whose production is assured for two months (17.1%) and those whose production is assured for more than ten months (15.9%). Should the October production rhythm continue, 7.3% of enterprises have production assured for half a month while 2.0% of enterprises have no assured production. PRIČAKOVANO ZAPOSLOVANJE EXPECTED EMPLOYMENT Vrednost kazalnika pričakovanj glede zaposlovanja v naslednjih 3 mesecih je bila enaka glede na pretekli mesec. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani je bila nižja za 6 odstotnih točk in 5 odstotnih točk pod povprečjem lanskega leta. The value of expected employment for the next three months remained the same as in the previous month. Compared to October 2004 it was down by 6 percentage points and 5 percentage points below last year’s average. OMEJITVE V PROIZVODNJI LIMITS TO PRODUCTION V oktobru 2005 ni imelo omejitev v proizvodnji 27 % zaposlenih (oziroma 17 % podjetij). Glede na isti mesec lani je bil odstotek višji za 8 odstotnih točk in 8 odstotnih točk nad lanskim povprečjem. In October 2005, 27% of employees (17% of enterprises) faced no limits, which is 8 percentage points more than in October 2004 and 8 percentage points above last year’s average. Sledili so omejitveni dejavniki iz skupine šibko povpraševanje. V tem mesecu se je z njimi srečevalo 26 % zaposlenih (oziroma 29 % podjetij), kar je za 2 odstotni točki manj kot isti mesec lani in enako lanskemu povprečju. The second most important limits were demand difficulties. In October 2005, 26% of employees (29% of enterprises) faced these limits, which is 2 percentage points less than in October 2004 and equal to last year’s average. Z dejavniki iz skupine hude omejitve se je v tem mesecu srečalo 24 % zaposlenih (oziroma 26 % podjetij) v predelovalnih dejavnostih. Glede na isti mesec lani je bil odstotek višji za 1 odstotno točko in za 4 odstotne točke pod lanskim povprečjem. The third most important limits were severe obstacles. In October 2005, 24% of employees (26% of enterprises) faced these limits, which is 1 percentage point more than in October 2004 and 4 percentage points below last year’s average. V tem mesecu se je z omejitvenimi dejavniki iz skupine težave s preskrbo spopadalo 23 % zaposlenih (oziroma 28 % podjetij), kar je za 7 odstotnih točk manj kot lani v tem mesecu in 5 odstotnih točk pod povprečjem lanskega leta. In October 2005, 23% of employees (28% of enterprises) faced supply difficulties. That is 7 percentage points less than in October 2004 and 5 percentage points below last year’s average. Podrobnejši pregled omejitvenih dejavnikov v proizvodnji pokaže, da je/so oktobra 20051: A more detailed overview of limits to production shows that in October 20051: − 33 % zaposlenih (ali 30 % podjetij) omejevalo nezadostno tuje povpraševanje; − 33% of employees (or 30% of enterprises) were limited by insufficient foreign demand, − 28 % zaposlenih (ali 39 % podjetij) omejevalo nezadostno domače povpraševanje; − 28% of employees (or 39% of enterprises) were limited by insufficient domestic demand, − 20 % zaposlenih (ali 22 % podjetij) omejeval konkurenčni uvoz; − 20% of employees (or 22% of enterprises) were limited by competitive imports, − 17 % zaposlenih (ali 19 % podjetij) omejevalo pomanjkanje usposobljenih delavcev; − 17% of employees (or 19% of enterprises) were limited by shortage of skilled labour, − 14 % zaposlenih (ali 21 % podjetij) omejevale neporavnane obveznosti iz poslovanja; − 14% of employees (or 21% of enterprises) were limited by problems with unpaid bills, 1 Podjetja lahko označijo več dejavnikov, ki omejujejo njihovo proizvodnjo, zato vsota odstotkov ni 100. Enterprises can select several factors limiting their business, so the total in not 100%. Statistične informacije, št. 300/2005 10 Rapid Reports No 300/2005 − 10 % zaposlenih (ali 12 % podjetij) imelo težave zaradi negotovih gospodarskih razmer; − 10% of employees (or 12% of enterprises) were limited by uncertain economic conditions, − 9 % zaposlenih (ali 8 % podjetij) omejevalo pomanjkanje ustrezne opreme; − 9% of employees (or 8% of enterprises) were limited by lack of appropriate equipment, − 8 % zaposlenih (ali 7 % podjetij) omejevali drugi dejavniki, npr. nelojalna konkurenca, tečajna politika, pomanjkanje zmogljivosti, visoki stroški dela; − 8% of employees (or 7% of enterprises) were limited by other factors such as unfair competition, exchange-rate policy, lack of capacity, high labour costs, − 6 % zaposlenih (ali 12 % podjetij) omejevali finančni problemi, kot so neugodni pogoji kreditiranja, težave pri pridobivanju kreditov itd; − 6% of employees (or 12% of enterprises) were limited by financial problems such as unfavourable credit terms, difficulties in obtaining credits, etc., − 5 % zaposlenih (ali 7 % podjetij) omejevala nejasna gospodarska zakonodaja; − 5% of employees (or 7% of enterprises) were limited by unclear economic legislation, − 4 % zaposlenih (ali 6 % podjetij) omejevalo pomanjkanje surovin; − 4% of employees (or 6% of enterprises) were limited by shortage of raw materials, − 3 % zaposlenih (ali 6 % podjetij) omejevalo pomanjkanje delavcev na splošno; − 3% of employees (or 6% of enterprises) were limited by shortage of labour in general, − 1 % zaposlenih (ali 1 % podjetij) omejevalo pomanjkanje polizdelkov. − 1% of employees (or 1% of enterprises) was limited by shortage of semi- finished products. Največja omejitev v proizvodnji je nezadostno tuje povpraševanje, sledijo nezadostno domače povpraševanje, konkurenčni uvoz in pomanjkanje usposobljenih delavcev. The most important factor limiting production is insufficient foreign demand, followed by insufficient domestic demand, competitive imports and lack of appropriate equipment. IZKORIŠČENOST ZMOGLJIVOSTI CAPACITY UTILISATION Oktobrska povprečna izkoriščenost zmogljivosti je bila 82,8-odstotna oziroma najvišja v celotnem opazovanem obdobju. V primerjavi z julijem 2005 je bila višja za 1,0 odstotno točko, v primerjavi z istim mesecem lani in lanskim povprečjem je bila višja za 1,3 odstotne točke. In October 2005 the average capacity utilisation was 82.8%, which is 1.0 percentage point higher than in July 2005 and the best result since we started conducting the survey. Compared to October 2004 and last year’s average it was up by 1.3 percentage point. USTREZNOST PROIZVODNIH ZMOGLJIVOSTI CURRENT PRODUCTION CAPACITY Ustreznost proizvodnih zmogljivosti je bila glede na pričakovano povpraševanje v naslednjih dvanajstih mesecih za 6 odstotnih točk nižja kor v juliju 2005. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani je bila nižja za 1 odstotno točko in 2 odstotni točki pod povprečjem lanskega leta. The assessment of current production capacity in comparison with expected demand in the next 12 months was lower by 6 percentage points compared to July 2005. Compared to October 2004 it was down by 1 percentage point and 2 percentage points below last year’s average. KONKURENČNI POLOŽAJ COMPETITIVE POSITION Desezonirana vrednost konkurenčnega položaja podjetij na domačem trgu je bila enaka kot julija 2005. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila nižja za 2 odstotni točki in 2 odstotni točki pod lanskim povprečjem. The seasonally adjusted assessment of competitive position on the domestic market was the same as in July 2005. Compared to October 2004 and last year’s average it was down by 2 percentage points. Desezonirana vrednost konkurenčnega položaja podjetij na trgih držav članic EU je bila v primerjavi z julijem 2005 višja za 2 odstotni točki. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila višja za 3 odstotne točke in 2 odstotni točki nad lanskim povprečjem. Compared to July 2005, the seasonally adjusted assessment of enterprise’s competitive position on markets of the EU Member States was up by 2 percentage points. It was up by 3 percentage points compared to October 2004 and 2 percentage points above last year’s average. Desezonirana vrednost konkurenčnega položaja podjetij na trgih zunaj EU je bila v primerjavi z julijem 2005 nižja za 1 odstotno točko. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila višja za 5 odstotnih točk in za 3 odstotne točke nad lanskim povprečjem. Compared to July 2005, the seasonally adjusted assessment of enterprise’s competitive position on the markets outside EU was down by 1 percentage point. Compared to October 2004 it was up by 5 percentage points and 3 percentage points above last year’s average. Statistično raziskovanje je sofinancirala Evropska komisija. Za objavljene podatke in besedila je odgovoren izključno Statistični urad Republike Slovenije in ne Evropska komisija. The business survey is co-financed by the European Commission. However, the European Commission accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever with regard to the material published in this publication. Sestavila / Prepared by: Brigita Vrabič Kek Izdaja, založba in tisk Statistični urad Republike Slovenije, Ljubljana, Vožarski pot 12 - Uporaba in objava podatkov dovoljena le z navedbo vira - Odgovarja generalna direktorica mag. Irena Križman - Urednica zbirke Statistične informacije Marina Urbas - Slovensko besedilo jezikovno uredila Joža Lakovič - Angleško besedilo jezikovno uredil Boris Panič - Tehnični urednik Anton Rojc - Naklada 690 izvodov - ISSN zbirke Statistične informacije 1408-192X - ISSN podzbirke Rudarstvo in predelovalne dejavnosti 1408-8908 - Informacije daje Informacijsko središče, tel.: (01) 241 51 04 - El. pošta: info.stat@gov.si - http://www.stat.si. Edited, published and printed by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, Ljubljana, Vožarski pot 12 - These data can be used provided the source is acknowledged - Director-General Irena Križman - Rapid Reports editor Marina Urbas - Slovene language editor Joža Lakovič - English language editor Boris Panič - Technical editor Anton Rojc - Total print run 690 copies - ISSN of Rapid Reports 1408-192X - ISSN of subcollection Mining and manufacturing 1408-8908 - Information is given by the Information Centre of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, tel.: +386 1 241 51 04 - E-mail: info.stat@gov.si - http://www.stat.si. i f r cij Marina Urbas – Področ a urednica Brigita Vrabič Kek - Slovensko besedilo jezikovno uredila Joža Lakovič - Angleško b sedilo jezikovno uredil Boris Panič - Naklada 100 izvodov - IS N zbirk Statističn informacije 1408-192X - ISSN podzbirke Rudarstvo i pr delovalne dejavnosti 1408-8908 - Informacije daje Info macijsko središče, tel.: (01) 241 51 04 - El. pošta: info.stat@gov.si - http://www.stat.si. Marina Urbas – Subject-matter editor Brigit Vrabič Kek - Sloven language editor Joža Lakovič - English language edit r Bo s Pa ič - Total print run 100 copies - ISSN of Rapid Reports 1408-192X - ISSN f subcollection Mining and manufacturing 1408-8908 - Information is given by the I formation Centre of the Statistical Office of the Republ c of Slovenia, tel.: +386 1 241 51 04 - E-mail: inf .stat@gov.si - http://www.stat.si.