KINESIOLOGIA SLOVE NICA 4 (1998)1 : 27- 35 27 Blai lešnik Milan Žvan ASSESSING THE MORPHOLOGIC, MOTORIC AND PSYCHOLOGIC STATUS OF YOUNG BOYS IN ALPINE SKIING BASED ON EXPERT MODELLING OCENJEV~NJE MORFOLOŠK{GA, MOTORICNEGA IN PSIHOLOSKEGA STATUSA MWŠIH DEČKOV V ALPSKEM SMUČANJU NA PODLAGI EKSPERTNEGA MODELIRANJA ABSTRACT We formed for a chosen sample of 24 young alpine skiers (11 -13 years old) a reduced prognostic mo- del of competitive successfulness based on 8 morp- hological, 20 motor and 20 psychological variables, using the »expert system« method. We obtained a predicted value for each competitor on all levels of the decision tree. Then we calculated the linear correlation between the predicted (expert system) and actual successful- ness (criterion). The statistical significance of the Pearson coefficient shows a high correlation and enables us to confirm the validity and quality of the reduced prognostic model and possibilities for its ap- plication in praxis in the future. Keywords: skiing, young boys, morphology, motoric, psychology, successfulness University of Ljubljana - Faculty of Sport, Gortanova 22, Sl-1000 Ljubljana, Sloven ia Phone: + + 386 61 140-10-77 Fax: + + 386 61 448-148 E-mail : Blaz.Lesnik@sp.uni-lj .si IZVLEČEK Na pod lagi 8 morfoloških, 20 motoričnih in 20 psi- holoških dimenzij smo za vzorec 24-ih najboljših mladih alpskih smučarjev (11 do13 let) obl ikovali t.i. reducirani model potencialne uspešnosti mladih tekmovalcev. S pomočjo metode ekspertnega siste- ma (hevristični pristop) smo za vsakega posamezni- ka izračunali ocene tako na najvišjem kot tudi na vseh nižjih nivojih odločitvenega drevesa. V nadaljevanju smo izračunali stopnjo povezanosti med predvideno oceno tekmovalne uspešnosti (eks- pertni sistem) in dejansko uspešnostjo (kriterijska spremenlj ivka). Statistična značilnost izračunanega Pearsonovega koeficienta korelacije kaže na visoko povezanost postavljenega modela z uspešnostjo in hkrati potrjuje tako veljavnost kot tudi kvaliteto re- duciranega modela ter možnost za nadaljnjo upora- bo le-tega v praksi. Ključne besede: smučanje, morfologija, motorika, psihologija, mlajši dečki, uspešnost 28 Blaž Lešnik, Milan Žvan ASSESSING THE MORPHOLOGIC, MOTORIC ANO PSYCHOLOGIC STATUS OF YOUNG BOYS IN ALPINE SKIING ... INTRODUCTION 1 n sport, as in other fie lds, constant change is pre- sent, advances can be only made asa consequence of creativity and ever new approaches to studying and solving existent or new-coming problems. Re- sults in top competitive sport are therefore the con- sequence of suitable professional work, enablingthe development of those dimensions of the psychoso- matic status that are important in a certain sport. The top-level results of current generations of Slove- ne alpine skiers are without doubt the best proof of a quality-orientation of the selection process of younger as well as older categories of competitors. We must keep in mind that the route to the top is through ever stronger competit ion even in the youn- gest categories and because these are the basis on which top results are built, we mustensure for them a suitable, professionally led and o rganised training process. An analysis of the successfulness of athletes can base on the competitive or the potential viewpoint of the successfulness model. Success depends on many factors (4), therefore we cannot take them ali into ac- count. We were forced to limit ourselves to a few, those that have the greatest pred ictive power and most show the potential successfu lness of young competitors in alpine skiing (6). In the competitive realisational viewpoint of the suc- cessfulness model, however, the starting point are the actual results (achieved at competit ions) and we try in reverse to find those factors that most defined the achieved results. By focusing on the three na med subspaces (morp- hologic, motor and psychological subspace) of the general model of potential successfu lness (3) we on- ly slightly limited its dimensionality. A full treatment of the three subspaces would namely sti li be unma- nageable. Therefore we further reduced the men- tioned subspaces to those 48 dimensions, which are considered in theory and praxis as the best indica- tors of the status and leve! of preparedness of young competitors for successful competition. In general we can treatthe potential model of morp- hologic dimensions (1) asa very simplified whole that offers a suffic iently precise and (for ski ing) es- sential i nsight i nto the complex of the morphological characteristics of an individual. O n the basi s of some other studies (6, 8) we can say that only larger depar- tures from the average values in ind ividual variables would lessen the possibility for ach ieving good re- sults. The potential model of specific and basic motor cl imPnc;ionc; rP nrP,Pntc; ;:i rPrt::iin r nmmnn rlPnnmi- nator of an assessment of the motor status of the competitors. It consists of a part of those pri mary key specific potential dimensions w hich are the condi- t io-sine-qua-non for successfulness in alpine skiing. It is a fact that the w hole process in sport is about transforming competitors into a state that enables top results. However, as is evident from the general model of successfulness (4), the motoric dimensions are not the only ones defining successfu l competiti- ve appearances. Together w ith the morphologic and functional dimensions t hey represent the primary potential successfulness dimensions, wh ile the psychologica l dimensions are a part of the tertiary specific potential dimensions and are of course also essentia I for ach ievement of resu lts. Among the psychic characteristics we feel that three complexes are specially important for young alpine skiers, they ensure (from the psychological point of v iew) a relat ively holistic insight into the individual and his/her possibi lities for success . This is the fi rst and t ill now the most complex battery of tests (4) meant for younger categories and it seems that it is also usefu l in praxis. Spo rt Psychology is only one of the branches of psychology and represents an important part that can add greatly to achieving good (or bad) results in sports. This subspace is also treated by differentcom- plexes that are essential for successfulness in alpine skiing. We tried to take into account the fact that psychological factors that influence the successful- ness of an athlete depend to a lesser or greater de- gree on genetic, socialisational and other (training) effects. Therefore it was our purpose to fi nd also among specific psychic abil ities, motivation and per- sonal ity characteristics the key ones that determine successfulness of younger categories in alpine skiing. The psychological characteristics that construct the presented model w ill enable us to infer results in ot- her, not used, butstill importantdimensions: The presentation of the reduced model of potential successfulness for the competit ive category of junior boys in alpine skiing is only a pa rt, which we discus- sed in this work in close connection with the actual successfulness of the mentioned competitive cate- gory. For this purpose we constructed a competitive model of successfulness, built of levels defined by the nature and level of competition, as shown in Table 1 . In order to keep the competitive data objective and relevant only the third level competitions (competi- t ions for the Radenska Cup) were taken into ac- count. Finding the actual (competitive) successful- ness means trying to evaluate the achieved results of each individual, but not by the objective success on thP r nr ,r,P /timP\ h, ,t t hrn, ,ah nnintc oi\/Pn h" ~lf"I\/P- Blaž Lešnik, Milan Žvan ASSESSING THE MORPHOLOGIC, MOTORIC ANO PSYCHOLOGIC STATUS OF YOUNG BOYS IN ALPINE SKIING .. 29 Table 1: Competitive model of successfulness (3). COMPETITIVE SUCCESSFULNESS +- INTERNA TIONAL COMPETITION +- DOMESTIC COMPETITION +- COMPETITION 3. LEVEL (6 races for the Radenska Cup competition) +- COMPETITION 2. LEVEL (regional competition) +- COMPETITION 1. LEVEL (inter-club competition) ne SkiingAssociation for a certain placement (ran k) at a competition (9). METHODS SUBJECT SAMPLE A sample of 24 alpine skiers (of adequate qual ity) was analysed in th is study. The skiers had to fulfil the fol lowing criteria: • born in 1983 or 1984 • placed in the fina! list of competitors of the Raden- ska Cup competitions in the season 1994/95 and had more than 100 points • participated in thetrainingprocessoftheirski club • w ithout physical injuries or morphological aber- rations The mark of potential successfulness was computed w ith the expert system method (7). The basi s o f every expert model is the knowledge base, whose forma- 1 ism consists of the criterion tree (model reference), decision rules (model configuration) and the so-ca l- led normal isers. The normalisers are formed accor- d ing the heuristics theory. The criterion tree (model reference) consists of fac- tors which influence successfu lness of athletes in a certain sport. These are ordered in the form of a de- cision tree. The lowest are the basic criteria, that is the tests - the results of the individual obtained with the measurements. These are then combined up- wards into derived criteria. At the highest level is the predicted mark of successfulness (see Table 3). The configuration of the model (see Table 3) - the absolute decision rules, presented in the column »weight«, are set by the expert with decision rules, w here (s)he assesses the contribution of each factor with a certain percentage. This sets the importance of each factor for competitive successfulness. The decision rules can be given in relative percentages (on each level the sum must be 100%) o r absolute percentages - the total sum of the contributions of all the factors is one hundred percent. The individua l factors must be evaluated with the help of normalisers (see Table 3) with w hich we nu- merically set the boundaries of the individual results (in their original metrics) of ali the dimensions (fac- tors). The boundaries must be set for five classes: ex- cellent, very good, good, adequate and not adequa- te. The mark (from 1 to 5) o n the highest leve! of the decision tree w ill then be computed for each indivi- dual, showing the competitors potential successful- ness for alpine ski ing. The formal ism of the knowledge base is presented in the form of a decision tree of successfulness. The lowest levels of the t ree are the basic criteria, whose values are the individual's measured resu lts. The hig- hest level on the other hand represents the so-called potential assessmentofsuccessfulness, which can be computed with the help of the proposed reduced model of successfu lness. The model also gives the pred icted values at all the intermediate levels bet- ween the lowest (measured results) and the highest (assessment of potential successfulness). Our model was therefore defined w ith a relatively small number of variables, even if we were fully awa- re that fully objective results could only be obtained by taking into account all the d imensions of the psychosomatic status. In this way we constructed a reduced model of potential successfulness, consi- sting only the most important morphological, motor (5) and psychological d imensions (4), as shown in Table 2. Table 2: Reduced model of potential successfulness (6). POTENTIAL SUCCESSFULNESS (assessment of successful- ness in alpine skiing) +- MORPHOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS +- MOTORICABILITIES +- PSYCHOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS The Pearson coeffic ient of correlation (r) was used to asses the correlation between the predicted mark of competitive successfulness obtained with the expert system. In the Radenska Cup competit io n series, which is becoming t rad itional in Slovenia for the junior girls and boys age group, five giant slalom, three slalom and two super giant slalom races were held in the competitive season 1995/96. Each race at which a competitor participated and managed to complete the cou rse gave a certain numberof points. The Slo- vene Skiing Association (SZS) ranks the successful- ness of competition participants according to an agreed-upon criterion - first p lace is 150 points, se- cond place 135, third 120, fourth 108, fifth 96 and so on (9). We tried to enhance the objectivity of the 30 Blaž Lešnik, Milan Žvan ASSESSING THE MORPHOLOGIC, MOTORIC ANO PSYCHOLOGIC STATUS OF YOUNG BOYS IN ALPINE SKIING ... Table 3 : Absolute decision rules and normalisers for younger boys (6) Mark: Weight OCENA t-MORFO +- AT +-EKSGEOR t-DOLRAZ i +-AV i +-ADN +-PRAZSO ! +-APKOLL : +- APSSL +- OBSNOG i +-AOSL +- INTGEOR +-AKGT +-AKGSL +-MOTORIKA i t-OSMOT +-ENKOGI . +-MOČ i : +-ODRMOČEN ! +-MMEN3SM +-0D RMOČSO i +-MMENSDM +-REPMOČ i +-MMRTDT +-HITROST i +-MMENS20 ! +-Mf-!GNS20L +-VZDRZLJIV +-MVM1500 +-INKOGI +-KOORDIN . +- MHK ! +- MKKRPN +-MHALT +-MHFRTB15 f-GIBLJIVOST i +-MGATPK +-RAVNOTE +-MRSOSVT i +-MRSOSPT +-SPMOT +- ENKOGI : +-MOČ +-ODRMOČVZ i +-MMRNPK , +-STATMOČ ! +-SMPRE +- INKOGI +-KOORDIN +-MHK i +-MKHRVIS +- MAG i +-SKl9 ! +-MKAGKVS +-MRE i + -MMENSDN +-MKR i +-MKRBNR +-MHALTN + - MHFNTD +-MHFNTL 100.0 19.0 8.0 7.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 2.5 1.8 0.7 2.5 2.5 4.0 2.0 2.0 66.0 26.2 12.4 8.1 4.1 4.1 2.5 2.5 1.5 1.5 3.0 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 13.8 8.7 6.0 6.0 2.7 2.7 1.1 1.1 4.0 2.0 2.0 39.7 14 .7 14.7 8.4 8.4 6.3 6.3 25.0 25.0 S.O s.o 11.5 7.5 4.0 1.6 1.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 1. 7 1. 7 >=4.0 excellent 510-610 1540-1660 860-970 >=90 >=64 460-530 <=7.2 <=11 >=595 > =210 > = 41 <=3.55 <=2.88 <=362 < = 8.7 >=16 >=50 >=5.2 >=5 >=51 > = 85 <=12.9 <=32.8 <=9.7 >=86 >=17 >=22 >=22 Normalisers >=3.5 verygood 430-680 1450-1740 830-1000 >=88 >=60 430-560 <=8.3 <=13.5 >=590 >=205 >=39 <=3.62 <=2.98 <=368 <=8.9 > = 15 >=46 >=5 >=4.5 >=48 >=80 <=13.9 < =33.2 <=9.9 >=80 >=16 >=21 > = 21 >=3.0 good 400-700 1420-1760 800-1030 >=85 >=57 410-570 <=9.4 <=15 >=583 > =199 >=36 <=3.69 < = 3.12 <=376 <=9.1 > =14 >=42 >=4.7 >=4 >=45 >=75 <=15.6 <=34 <=10.1 >=75 > = 15 >=20 >=20 >=2.0 adequate 370-720 1400-1780 780-1050 >=83 >=54 400-600 <=10.5 <=16 >=578 > = 193 > = 33 <=3.76 <=3.2 <=384 <=9.3 > =13 >=38 > =4.3 >=3.6 >=43 >=70 <=17 <=35 < =10.4 >=71 >=14 >=19 >=19 units of measure (millimetres-mm) (millimetres- mm) (millimetres- mm) (millimetres-mm) (millimetres-mm) (millimetres- mm) (millimetres - mm) (millimetres- mm) (centimetres - cm) (centimetres - cm) (no. of repetitions) (seconds - s) (seconds - s) (seconds - s) (seconds -s) (no. of repetitions) (no. of repetitions) (seconds - s) (seconds - s) (no. of repetitions) (seconds- s) (seconds - s) (seconds-s) (seconds - s) (centimetres - cm) (no. of repetitions) (no. of repetitions) (no. of repetitions) Blaž Lešnik, Milan Žvan ASSESSING THE MORPHOLOGIC, MOTORICAND PSYCHOLOGIC STATUS OFYOUNG BOYS IN ALPINE SKIING ... 31 +-PSIHOLOG 15.0 +-SPOSOBNO 5.2 +-PREVODŽS 5.2 ' +-KRČ 3.2 + - HITROSTK 2.6 <=3.8 < = 5.3 <=6.8 <=8 (seconds -s) [ +-STABILK 0.6 <=7 <=15 < = 22 <=30 (seconds-s) +-ERČ 2.0 +-HITREN 1.6 < =7.8 <=8.5 <=9.2 <=9.8 (seconds - s) +-STABEN 0.4 <=O <=1 <=2 <=3 (sum of mistakes) +-MOTIVA( 4.6 +-STORMOT 1.8 . f-SPLOŠNA 0.9 i +-USPNGDEL 0.6 5-7 4-8 3-9 1-11 (points) i +-USPGDELO 0.3 >=8 >=7 >=6 >=4 (points) +-TEKMOT 0.9 +-POZIT 0.6 >=75 > = 72 >=68 >=55 (points) +-NEGAT 0.3 30-42 27-48 24-55 21-80 (points) - NOTRMOT 1.4 >=140 >=135 >=128 >=120 (points) +-CILJORI 1.4 +-ORZMAG 0.7 >=26 >=23 >=20 > =16 (points) +-ORCILJ 0.7 >=28 > = 26 >=24 >=21 (points) + - OSEBLAST 5.2 t -TEKLAST 4.2 i +-ANKSIOZ 2.1 i +- TEKMANKS 1.5 <=37 <=43 <=54 <=57 (points) • +-POTEZANK 0.6 <=37 <=43 <=54 <=57 (points) +-PERCTEKS 2.1 t -PERCDRUG 1.3 i +-OCNASPR 0.7 3-4 2-5 1-5 0-6 (points) 1 +-VPLOCOR 0.6 3-4 2-5 1-5 0-6 (points) +-PERCSEBE 0.4 +-SAMOZAUP 0.1 >=6 >=S >=4 >=2 (points) i +-TEKMOVAL 0.3 >=60 >=55 >=SO >=44 (points) ! +-PERPOMTE 0.4 >=5 >=4 >=3 >=2 (points) -t-AGRESIV 1.0 +-INSTRUM 0.7 >=19 > =16 > =13 >=10 (points) +-REAKTIV 0.3 <=19 <=26 <=29 <=32 (points) VARIABLE SAMPLE The sample of independent (predictor) variables consists of 28 tests (Lešnik 1996): • 8 variables ofthe morphologicsubsystem (MORFO): Body weight (AT), body height (A V), length of lower extremities (ADN), left knee diameter (APKOLL), left ankle diameter (APSSL), left thigh circumference (AOSL), abdominal skin fold (AKGT), left thigh skin fold (AKGSL). • 20 variables of the motor subsystem (MOTORIKA): Basic motor abilities (OSMOT): standingtriple jump (MMEN32M), standing longjump (MMENSDM), sit-ups (MMRDTDT), 20m sprint - high start (MMENS20), 20 m sprint - flyingstart (MHGNS20L), 1500 m run (MVAA 1500), polygon backwards (MKKRPN), plate-tapping with better arm (MHFRTB15), bend and touch (MGATPK), balancing on both legs parallel on balance board (MRSOSVT), balancing on both legs perpendicular on balance board (MRSOSPT), Specific motor abilities (SPMOT): jumps over Swedish bench (MMRNPK), downhill-skiing-position (SMPRE), clirnbing up and down benches and ladders (MKHRVIS), figures of eight around obstacles (SKl9), side-stepping (MKAGKVS), standing longjurnp backwards (MMENSDN), drummingwith hands and feet (MKRBNR), plate-tapping with right leg (MHFNTD), plate-tapping with left leg (MHFNTL). • 20 variables of the psychological subsystem (PSIHOLOG): HITROSTK (cornplex reaction time), STABILK (stability of cornplex reaction), HIT REN (simple reaction tirne), STABEN (stability of simple reaction), USPNGDEL (need for achievement without regard to invested effort), USPGDELO (need for achievement through invested effort), POZIT (positive competitive motivation), NEGAT (negative competitive motivation), NOTRMOT (intrinistic motivation), ORZMAG (win- orientation), ORCILJ (goal-orienlation), TEKMANKS (competitive anxiety), POTEZANK (anxiety trait), OCNASPR (competitor assessment), VPLOCDR (influence of own assessment by others), SAMOZAUP (self-confidence), TEKMOVAL (competitiveness), PERPOMTE (race-im- portance perception), REAKTIV (relative aggression), INSTRUM (instrumenta! aggression). Ali variables in Table 3 are given in bold text. 32 Blaž Lešnik, Milan Žvan ASSESSING THE MORPHOLOGIC, MOTORIC ANO PSYCHOLOGIC STATUS OF YOUNG BOYS IN ALPINE SKIING .. . resu lts in our study by defining as the criterion va- riable (actua l successfulness) the sum of the follo- w ing points: 1 . sum of points of the two best slalom placements (max. 300 po ints), 2. sum of points of three best p lacements in giant slalom (max. 450 points) and 3. points of the best placement in super giant sla- lom (max. 150 points). Table 4 shows the individual criterion values: Table 4: Values of criterion variable for junio r boys rank Surnarne and narne achieved ooints 1 . K 816 2. č 801 3. B 687 4. J 556 5. M 528 6. R 473 7. F 462 8. C 451 9. A 410 1 O. D 361 11. 1 338 12. o 281 13. H 237 14. E 204 15. v 201 16. š 190 17. T 187 18. N ·179 19. z 176 20. u 152 21. L 125 22. p 114 23. G 111 24. s 78 RESU LTS RESULTS OF EXPERT SYSTEM The values of the final marks computed by the ex- pert system method (Table 5) show that there was no competitor in the tested sample with a »notadequa- te« mark on the highest levels. The obtained results are therefore congruent with the quality of the te- sted sample that consists only of the most successfu l competito rs in alpine skiing in the category junior boys. A general overview of t he obtained results of the measured sample wi ll encompass in our case only the first two levels of nodes, formed w ith linear com- binations of the variables on lower levels of the suc- cessfu lness tree. The results in Table 5 show a quite large range bet- ween the marks on the highest level of the success- fulness tree (the highest level is marked as OCENA). It can be seen that most of t he 24 subjects received the marks good (11 ) and adequate (9). On ly one competitor received the mark excellent, the remai- ning three were assessed with »very good«. Such re- sults are a quite logical consequence of the highly set standards for selection of competitors into the selec- tions of the junior categories of alpine skiers. Two thirds (16) of the competitors received a mark above 3.0, wh ich represents quite a good result, attested also by the 3.1 average va lue. A comparison of the three main sublevels of the mo- del (the sublevels are marked as MORFO- morpho- logic dimensions, MOTORI KA - motoric dimensions and PSIHOLOG - psychological dimensions) gives a first glance impression that the marks are quite si- milar (Table 6). A closer inspection of the morpho- logy subspace shows that only one competitor recei- ved a mark lower than 3.0. However, w e must men- t ion thatespecially in the interna! geometric charac- teristics node (INTGEOR) some »not adequate« marks are present, mostly due to bad results in the skin-folds. The morphology subspace shows mostly high marks, also attested by the average mark of the measured sample of 3.6, w hich is higher than thatof motorics (2. 9) and psychology (3 .4). Si nce the morp- hology subspace is less important for ski ingthan mo- Table 5: The values of the final evaluations, obtained by the expert system method : Rank Skier Age Mark l. A 13 4.23 excellent 2 B 13 3.82 verygood 3. C 13 3.58 very good 4. D 13 3.55 very good 5. E 13 3.49 good 6. F 13 3.40 good 7. G 13 3.32 good 8. H 13 3.31 good 9. 1 13 3.30 good 10. J 13 3.26 good 11. K 13 3.25 good 12. L 13 3.17 good 13. M 13 3.12 good 14. N 13 3.09 good 15. o 13 3.06 good 16. p 12 2.96 adequate 17. R 12 2.94 adequate 18. s 13 2.92 adequate 19. T 12 2.91 adequate 20. u 13 2.62 adequate 21. v 12 2.61 adequate 22. w 13 2.50 adequate 23. X 12 2 .42 adequate 24. y 12 2.26 adequate Marks on the higher levels of the decision tree are shown on the Table 6. Blaž Lešnik, Milan Žvan ASSESSING THE MORPHOLOGIC, MOTORICAND PSYCHOLOGIC STATUS OFYOUNG BOYS IN ALPINE SKIING .. 33 torics, it also has a lower weight (19%) as can be seen in Table 6. The problems of settingthe norms for the morphologic, motor and psychological subspaces come mostly from the changes in development, cha- racteristic for the age span of this sample. The status of the subject in the motoric subspace has the greatest influence on successfulness also in ski- ing, therefore the weight is the largest, in our case 66% (Table 3). Because of this we set all the norms of the motoric dimensions high in light of the used sample. Proof of this can be seen in the factthat on- ly the best marked subject achieved the mark »ex- cellent«. However, the quality of the sample is atte- sted to by the fact that- in spite of harsh norms - more than half achieved a mark above 3 .O and that only two subjects were assessed with »not adequa- te«. M ost of the marks are »adequate« and »good«, mirrored in the average mark of the motoric status of 2.9, wh ich is lower than the average values of the other two subsystems. The psychological complex of dimensions has in many instances a decisive influence on success in al- pine skiing, both in the younger and the older age categories (Lešnik 1996). The mark of psychological Table 6: Marks on the higher levels of the decision tree A-Mark B-Ma rk C-Mark O-Mark E-Ma rk F-Ma rk OCENA 4.2 exc. 3.8v.g 3.6v.g. 3.5 v.g. 3.5 good 3.4 good +-MORFO 4.0 exc. 3.5 v.g. 3.2 good 4.6 exc. 4.3 exc. 4.0 exc. ! +-AT 3.7 v.g. 3.8v.g. 2.3 adq. 4.8exc. 4.2 exc. 4.3 exc. i +-EKSGEOR 4.3 exc. 4.2 exc. 3.6v.g. 4.6 exc. 4.5 exc. 4.7 exc. i +-INTGEOR 4.2 exc. 1.6n.ad. 4.4 exc. 4.0 exc. 4.0v.g. 2.4 adq. +-MOTORIKA 4.5 exc. 3.9v.g. 3.7v.g. 3.3 good 3.3 good 3.2 good ! + -OSMOT 4.6 exc. 3.8v.g. 4.0 exc. 4.2 exc. 4.4 exc. 2.5 adq. ! +-SPMOT 4.4 exc. 4.0v.g. 3.5 good 2.7 adq. 2.5 adq. 3.6v.g. + - PSIHOLOG 3.4 good 3.9v.g. 3.5 good 3.5 v.g. 3.4 good 3.Sv.g. +-SPOSOBNO 3.9v.g. 3.6v.g. 3.4 good 3.7 v.g. 3.4 good 4.3 exc. + - MOTIVAC 2.7 adq. 4.0 exc. 3.5 good 3.0good 3.2 good 2.9 adq. +-OSEBLAST 3.5 v.g. 4.0 exc. 3.5 good 3.9v.g. 3.Sv.g. 3.4 good C- Mark H-Mark 1-Ma rk )-Mark K- Mark L-Mark OCENA 3.3 good 3.3 good 3.3 good 3.3 good 3.2 good 3.2 good +-MORFO 3.2 good 3.6v.g. 3.8v.g. 3 .7v.g. 3.7v.g. 3.7 v.g. ! +-AT 2.3adq. 3.1 good 3.4 good 3.9v g. 4.0v.g. 3.9vg. ! + - EKSGEOR 3.6v.g. 3.9v.g. 4.1 exc. 3.Bv.g. 4.0 exc. 4.4 exc. [ +-INTGEOR 4 .2 exc. 4.3 exc. 4.2 exc. 3.0good 2.Sadq. 1.8 n.ad. +-MOTORIKA 3.3 good 3 .1 good 3 .1 good 3.2 good 3 .1 good 3.0 adq. i +-OSMOT 3.3 good 3.2 good 2.2 adq. 3.4 good 2.9adq . 2.8 adq. i +-SPMOT 3.3 good 3.0 adq. 3 .6v.g. 3.1 good 3.3 good 3.1 good + - PSIHOLOG 3.4 good 4.0v.g. 3.6v.g. 3.0good 3.3 good 3.3 good +- SPOSOBNO 3.6v.g. 3.8v.g. 3.9v.g. 2.2 adq. 3.7v.g. 3.3 good +-MOTIVAC 3.0 adq. 4.2 exc. 3.2 good 3.3 good 3.0good 3.4 good +- OSEB LAST 3.6v.g. 3.9v.g. 3.7v.g. 3.5 v.g. 3.2 good 3.4 good M-M a rk N-Mark O-Mark P-Ma rk R-Ma rk S-Mark OCENA 3.1 good 3.1 good 3.1 good 3.0 adq. 2.9 adq. 2.9adq. +-MORFO 3.7v.g. 3.3 good 3.6 v.g. 3 5 good 3.3 good 3.6v.g. +-AT 3.8v.g 4.0exc. 3.1 good 3.5v.g. 4.3 exc. 3.7v.g. +-EKSGEOR 4.5 exc. 4.2 exc. 3.Bv.g. 4 0v.g. 4.1 exc. 4.2 exc. i +-INTGEOR 1.8 n.ad. 0.1 n.ad. 4.1 exc. 2.5 adq. O.O n.ad. 2.3 adq. +-MOTORIKA 2.9 adq. 2.9adq . 2.8 adq. 2.8 adq. 2.7 adq. 2.6 adq. ! +-OSMOT 2.3 adq. 2.5 adq . 2.3 adq. 3.3 good 2.9 adq 3.4,good ! + - SPMOT 3.3 good 3.2 good 3.2 good 2.5 adq. 2.6 adq. 2.1 adq. +- PSIHOLOG 3.4 good 3.6v.g. 3.4 good 3 o adq. 3.4 good 3.3 good +-SPOSOBNO 3.2 good 2.9adq. 3.3 good 2.4 adq . 3.5 good 2.1 adq. +-MOTIVA( 3.7v.g. 4.1 exc. 3.2 good 3.5 good 3.3 good 3.7 v.g, +-OSEB LAST 3.4 good 3.8v.g. 3.6v.g. 3.1 good 3.6v.g. 4.0 exc. T-Mark U-Ma rk V-Mark W-Mark X-Mar k Y-Mar k OCENA 2.9 adq. 2.6adq. 2.6 adq. 2.5adq. 2.4 adq. 2.3 adq +-MORFO 3.9v.g. 3.2 good 3.5 v.g. 3.1 good 4.1 exc. 2.9adq. ! + - AT 3.9v.g. 3.7v.g. 2.8 adq. 3.6v.g. 3.6v.g. 1.9 n.ad. [ + - EKSGEOR 4.8 exc. 4.0v.g. 3.9v.g. 4.2 exc. 4.4 exc. 3 .3 good [ + -INTGEOR 2.3 adq. 0.8 n.ad 4.3 exc. O.O n.ad. 4.6 exc. 4.4 exc. +-MOTORIKA 2.4 adq. 2.4 adq. 2.2 adq. 2.1 adq. 1.6 n.ad. 1.8n.ad. [ +-OSMOT 2.6 adq. 2.4 adq. 1.8n.ad. 1.8 n.ad. 1.6 n.ad. 1.3 n.ad. ! + -SPMOT 2.3 adq. 2.4 adq. 2.5 adq. 2.4 adq. 1.6n.ad. 2.1 adq. + -PSIHOLOG 3.7v.g. 3.0 adq. 3.1 good 3.5 good 3.8v.g. 3.5 good + - SPOSOBNO 3.8v.g. 1.2 n.ad. 3.3 good 2.8 adq. 3.6v.g. 3.6v.g. + - MOTIVA( 3.4 good 4.4 exc. 2.6 adq. 4.0v.g. 3.9v.g. 3.1 good + - OSEB LAST 3.9v.g. 3.5 v.g. 3 .4 good 3.7 v.g. 4.0exc. 3.6v.g. 34 Blaž Lešnik, Milan Žvan ASSESSING THE MORPHOLOGIC, MOTORIC ANO PSYCHOLOGIC STATUS OF YOUNG BOYS IN ALPINE SKIING ... dimensions is a linear combination of nodes deal ing with psychicabilit ies (SPOSOBO), motivation (MO- TIVA() and personality characteristics (OSEB LAST) of the competitors. We feel that the importance of this subsystem, at least in comparison with the other two, is lower and is set at 1 5%. Since all the compe- t itors received marks above 3.0 this attests to thei r high level of psychic characteristics and abilities. The average mark of the psychological dimensions was 3.4. RESULTS OF CORRELATION BETWEEN BY THE EXPERT SYSTEM PREDICTED COMPETITIVE SUCCESSFULNESS (HEURISTIC APPROACH) AND ACTUAL SUCCESSFULNESS (POINTS) We tried to form the expert system in such a way that it would have the greatest possible power for predic- ting the competitive result in alpine skiing in the ju- nior boys category. The computed Pearson correla- tion coefficient shows a h igh level of correlation bet- ween the predicted and the actual competitive re- sult -0.50, which is statistically sign ificant at the 5% error level. The obtained results therefore confirm and statistically prove the quality of the chosen in- dependent variables, as well as the reference and configuration of the constructed potential model of successfulness for the given sample of subjects. The border values of statistically significant Pearson correlat ion coefficients for 24 subjects are: r = 0.41 * at 5-percent error level r = 0.52** at 1-percent error level. Table 7: Correlation between predicted and actual successfulness for younger boys TOČKE OCENA O.SO* DISCUSSION The possibi lity of further use of the constructed mo- del of successfulness was confirmed by computing the correlation between the predicted mark by the expert system and the actual competit ive result. The obtained Pearson correlation coefficient of O.SO (Table 7) attests to both the quality of the predictor variables selection and the adequacy of the set nor- malisers - meant for future practical use with the competitors in the junior boys category in alpine ski- ing. The problem that this study attempts to solve is ad- ding information to the theory of successfulness in alpine skiing. Since we have till now only guessed at the connection between the dimensions of the com- petitors' psychosomatic status and their competiti- ve successfulness, we tried to obtain in this study a representative sample, which would enable suffi- cient valid ity, reliability and generalizability of the obtained results. The reference and configuration of the reduced model of successfulness for the junior boys category are based on the morphological, mo- tor and psychologica l subspaces of the competitors' psychosomatic status. Existent studies dealing with these problems are either out-of-date or represent only a partial contribution to finding and explaining the competitive successfulness of athletes in ski ing. Numerous studies, confirmed also in praxis, will enable us to deal not only in hypotheses but also construct a generally valid and accepted theory of successfulness in alpine skiing. The constructed successfulness model enables also more precise planning and controlling of the indivi- dual transformation process, where we should aim for achieving the individua lly set goals. The use of the expert modelling for monitoring the psychoso- matic status of athletes would be welcome both in clubs as well as atthe level of various competitive se- lections. It is possible to direct the training process, w ith the aim of influencing those abilities that have the dominant role for achieving top competitive re- sults in alpine ski ing, on the basis of the computed results in this study. An individually oriented training process is the basis for an optimal insight into the psychosomatic status of each individual competitor. The subject sample consisted of all best competitors in the category, those which in ouropinion represent the future competi t ive pinnacle of Slovene skiing. Because we expect the progress of the morphologic, motoric and psychological dimensions by next ge- nerations we made the norms quite harsh, which is proven by the computed final marks of potential suc- cessfulness. In constructing the model of potential successfulness we had to take into account many ac- companying factors, which negatively affect the di- mensions used as independent variables, especially in the age period under consideration . Amongthese one should mention especial ly the disharmony bet- ween the skeleta! and muscular development, but also psychologica l and social factors (2) . A selective approach in considering predictors re- presents a novelty in top competitive sport. This ap- proach is however hindered by the fact that the psychosomatic status of competito rs can only be Blaž Lešnik, Milan Žvan ASSESSING THE MORPHOLOGIC, MOTORIC ANO PSYCHOLOGIC STATUS OF YOUNG BOYS IN ALPINE SKIING .. 35 described with any precision with a large number of variables. 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