4. AVGUST 2005 4 AUGUST 2005 št./No 218 20 TRGOVINA IN DRUGE STORITVENE DEJAVNOSTI DISTRIBUTIVE TRADE AND OTHER SERVICE ACTIVITIES št./No 39 POSLOVNE TENDENCE V TRGOVINI NA DROBNO, SLOVENIJA, JULIJ 2005 BUSINESS TENDENCY IN RETAIL TRADE, SLOVENIA, JULY 2005 V juliju 2005 se je desezonirana vrednost kazalca zaupanja v trgovini na drobno izboljšala v vseh treh primerjavah, in sicer je bila njegova vrednost v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem višja za 3 odstotne točke, v primerjavi z lanskim julijem za 7 odstotnih točk, v primerjavi z lanskim povprečjem pa za 5 odstotnih točk. In July 2005 the seasonally adjusted retail trade confidence indicator improved in all three comparisons. Compared to the previous month it went up by 3 percentage points, compared to July 2004 by 7 percentage points and compared to last year's average by 5 percentage points. Na gibanje vrednosti kazalca zaupanja so vplivale boljša ocena sedanjega poslovnega položaja, boljša ocena pričakovanega poslovnega položaja in tudi ocena o manjšem obsegu zalog. This development of the indicator was due to improvement in the assessment of the present and expected business situation as well as the assessment of decreased volume of stocks. Vsi kazalci stanj so se povečali, kazalec obseg zalog pa se je zmanjšal. Tudi večina kazalcev pričakovanj se je izboljšala. Izjema sta bila kazalca pričakovano zaposlovanje in pričakovano povpraševanje, ki sta se poslabšala. All situation indicators rose except the indicator of the volume of stocks fell. The expectation indicators mostly improved also. Exceptions were indicators of the expected employment and expected demand, which worsened. Slika 1: KAZALEC ZAUPANJA1) V SLOVENIJI IN EU2) JANUAR 1999 - JULIJ 2005 Chart 1: CONFIDENCE INDICATOR1) IN SLOVENIA AND EU2) JANUARY 1999 - JULY 2005 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 J 1999 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2000 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2001 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2002 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 F M A M J J desezonirani podatki - Slovenija seasonally adjusted data - Slovenia desezonirani podatki - EU seasonally adjusted data - EU dolgoletno povprečje long-term average ©SURS % 1) Kazalec zaupanja je povprečje odgovorov (ravnotežij) na vprašanja o sedanjem in pričakovanem poslovnem položaju ter sedanjem obsegu zalog (obrnjen predznak). The confidence indicator is an average of responses (balances) to questions on present and expected business situation and present volume of stocks (the latter with inverted sign). 2) Vir podatkov je Evropska komisija (http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/indicators/businessandconsumersurveys_en.htm). Podatki o EU za zadnji mesec niso na voljo. Source for EU data is European Commission (http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/indicators/businessandconsumersurveys_en.htm). Data for EU for the last month are not available. Statistične informacije, št. 218/2005 2 Rapid Reports No 218/2005 2. GIBANJE EKONOMSKIH KAZALCEV V TRGOVINI NA DROBNO V SLOVENIJI, JANUAR 1999 - JULIJ 2005 EVOLUTION OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS IN RETAIL TRADE IN SLOVENIA, JANUARY 1999 - JULY 2005 Ocena stanj Appreciation of situation Pričakovanja v naslednjih 3 mesecih Expectations in the next 3 months -15 0 15 30 45 60 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Poslovni položaj1) / Business situation1) 0 15 30 45 60 75 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Pričakovani poslovni položaj / Expected business situation -30 -15 0 15 30 45 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Prodajne cene1) / Selling prices1) -40 -20 0 20 40 60 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Pričakovane prodajne cene1) / Selling prices expectations1) -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Finančni položaj / Financial situation -50 -30 -10 10 30 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje1) / Expected employment1) -10 0 10 20 30 40 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Obseg zalog1) / Volume of stocks1) -15 0 15 30 45 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Pričakovana skupna nabava / Expected orders -20 0 20 40 60 80 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Raven prodaje1) / Level of sales1) -15 0 15 30 45 60 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Pričakovano povpraševanje / Expected demand originalni podatki raw data desezonirani podatki seasonally adjusted data dolgoletno povprečje long-term average 1) Sezonska komponenta ni prisotna. / No seasonal component. Statistične informacije, št. 218/2005 Rapid Reports No 218/2005 3 Ocena konkurenčnosti in gibanje prodaje / Appreciation of competition and evolution of sales -10 0 10 20 30 40 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Konkurenčnost / Competition -15 0 15 30 45 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Gibanje prodaje1) / Evolution of sales1) originalni podatki raw data desezonirani podatki seasonally adjusted data dolgoletno povprečje long-term average 1) Sezonska komponenta ni prisotna. / No seasonal component. Omejitveni dejavniki v trgovini na drobno / Obstacles in retail trade 0 20 40 60 80 100 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ni omejitev / no limits težave s povpraševanjem / demand difficulties težave s ponudbo / supply difficulties hude omejitve / severe obstacles ©SURS Grafikon o omejitvah v trgovini na drobno prikazuje deleže podjetij, ki se soočajo z naslednjimi skupinami omejitev: - Skupina "ni omejitev" zajema podjetja, ki nimajo težav pri prodaji. - Skupina "težave s povpraševanjem" zajema podjetja, ki imajo težave z nizkim povpraševanjem in konkurenco v sektorju. - Skupina "težave s ponudbo" zajema podjetja, ki imajo težave s slabo ponudbo, visokimi stroški dela, visoko ceno denarja, težavami z dostopnostjo do bančnih posojil, premajhno prodajno površino in premajhnimi skladiščnimi prostori. - Skupina "hude omejitve" zajema podjetja, ki imajo hkrati težave z dejavniki iz skupine "težave s povpraševanjem" kot tudi z dejavniki iz skupine "težave s ponudbo". The chart on retail trade obstacles shows the share of enterprises faced with the following groups of problems: - Group "no limits" includes enterprises with no limits to retail. - Group "demand difficulties" includes enterprises faced with low demand and competition in own sector. - Group "supply difficulties" includes enterprises faced with bad supply, high cost of labour, high cost of finance, problems with access to bank credits, small sales surface and small storage capacity. - Group "severe obstacles" includes enterprises faced with problems from the group "demand difficulties" and those from the group "supply difficulties" at the same time. Statistične informacije, št. 218/2005 4 Rapid Reports No 218/2005 3. GIBANJE EKONOMSKIH KAZALCEV V TRGOVINI NA DROBNO V SLOVENIJI IN EU1), JANUAR 1999 - JULIJ 2005 EVOLUTION OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS IN RETAIL TRADE IN SLOVENIA AND EU1), JANUARY 1999 - JULY 2005 Ocena stanj Appreciation of situation Pričakovanja v naslednjih 3 mesecih Expectations in the next 3 months -40 -20 0 20 40 60 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Poslovni položaj / Business situation -20 0 20 40 60 80 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % Pričakovani poslovni položaj / Expected business situation ©SURS -10 0 10 20 30 40 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Obseg zalog / Volume of stocks -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje / Expected employment -30 -15 0 15 30 45 60 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Pričakovana skupna nabava / Expected orders desezonirani podatki - Slovenija seasonally adjusted data - Slovenia desezonirani podatki - EU seasonally adjusted data - EU 1) Podatki o EU za zadnji mesec niso na voljo. Vir podatkov je Evropska komisija (http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/indicators/businessandconsumersurveys_en.htm). Data for EU for the last month are not available. Source for EU data is European Commission (http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/indicators/businessandconsumersurveys_en.htm). Statistične informacije, št. 218/2005 Rapid Reports No 218/2005 5 METODOLOŠKA POJASNILA METHODOLOGICAL EXPLANATIONS NAMEN STATISTIČNEGA RAZISKOVANJA PURPOSE OF THE STATISTICAL SURVEY Namen kvalitativne Ankete o poslovnih tendencah v trgovini na drobno (vprašalnik PA-TRG) je mesečno pridobivanje informacij o trenutnih stanjih glavnih ekonomskih kazalcev ter ocenitev njihovega gibanja v naslednjih mesecih. Rezultati anket so osnova za izračun kazalca zaupanja v trgovini na drobno in kazalca gospodarske klime, ki vključuje poleg kazalca zaupanja v trgovini na drobno tudi kazalec zaupanja pri potrošnikih in kazalec zaupanja v predelovalnih dejavnostih. The purpose of the qualitative Survey on Business Tendency (questionnaire PA-TRG) is to get monthly information about current situations of major economic indicators and to evaluate their movement in the following months. The results of the survey are the basis for evaluation of the confidence indicator in retail trade and latter on also for the sentiment indicator, which also includes the consumer confidence indicator and the confidence indicator in manufacturing. Panelno anketo o poslovnih tendencah v trgovini na drobno izvajamo v Sloveniji od januarja 1999 s poenotenim vprašalnikom, na podlagi poenotene metodologije in z enako periodiko, kakor jo izvajajo v državah članicah Evropske unije že več desetletij, kar omogoča neposredno primerljivost podatkov. The Panel Survey on Business Tendency in Retail Trade is being carried out in Slovenia since January 1999 with the harmonised questionnaire, methodology and periodicity, which have been used in EU Member States for several decades. Therefore, all data are directly comparable. ENOTA OPAZOVANJA OBSERVATION UNITS Opazujemo podjetja, ki so po Standardni klasifikaciji dejavnosti razvrščena v trgovino na drobno, in sicer v naslednja oddelka: − 50 - Prodaja, vzdrževanje in popravila motornih vozil; trgovina na drobno z motornimi gorivi, − 52 - Trgovina na drobno, razen z motornimi vozili; popravila izdelkov široke porabe. We are monitoring units that are registered in retail trade or sale of motor vehicles in the following divisions: − 50 - Sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles, retail sale of fuels − 52 - Retail trade, except of motor vehicles, repair of personal and household goods Vzorec podjetij je oblikovan na podlagi dveh meril: − razvrstitve trgovskega podjetja po SKD-ju in − velikosti trgovskega podjetja (prihodek, skladno z zakonom o gospodarskih družbah). They were selected into the panel by two criteria: − the classification of the enterprise according to the Standard Classification of Activities (SKD) and − the size of the enterprises (turnover in accordance with the Law on Business Companies). VIRI SOURCES Na vprašalnik PA - TRG odgovarjajo direktorji podjetij ali drugi vodilni delavci med 1. in 10. v mesecu. Respondents answering to the monthly PA-TRG questionnaire are managers of enterprises or other executives. They respond between the 1st and the 10th of the month. ZAJETJE COVERAGE V panelni vzorec smo zajeli vsa velika in srednje velika podjetja ter 32 % malih podjetij (ali 39 % prihodka malih podjetij), ki so razvrščena v dejavnost trgovine na drobno ali trgovine z motornimi vozili. Opisani panelni vzorec pokriva 43 % podjetij vzorčnega okvira ali 94 % prihodka v trgovini na drobno in trgovine z motornimi vozili. The panel includes all large and medium-sized enterprises and 32% of small enterprises (or 39% of their turnover), the principal activity of which is classified into retail trade and sale of motor vehicles. The panel covers 43% of enterprises of the studied population or 94% of turnover in retail trade and sale of motor vehicles. NAČIN ZBIRANJA PODATKOV METHOD OF DATA COLLECTION Anketo izvajamo mesečno po pošti. The survey is carried out monthly by mail. UTEŽEVANJE ODGOVOROV WEIGHTS FOR RESPONSES Odgovori so uteženi tako, da odražajo relativno pomembnost posameznega podjetja v vzorcu. Znotraj razredov SKD so odgovori uteženi s prihodkom. Responses to individual questions are weighted so that they reflect relative importance of an individual enterprise in the panel. Inside the SKD classes responses are weighted with the turnover. NEODGOVORI NON-RESPONSES Neodgovore vsak mesec obdelamo skladno s poenoteno metodologijo. Non-responses are processed every month in accordance with the harmonized methodology. DEFINICIJE IN POJASNILA DEFINITIONS AND EXPLANATIONS Ravnotežje je razlika med pozitivnimi in negativnimi odgovori, izraženimi v odstotkih. Ravnotežja prikazujejo gibanje opazovanih ekonomskih kazalcev (stanj in pričakovanj), ne pa dejanskih velikosti ekonomskih kazalcev. Grafikoni prikazujejo ravnotežja po posameznih vprašanjih. The balance is the difference between positive and negative answers, expressed in percent. The balance shows the movement of observed economic indicators (present situation and future expectations), and not the real size of economic indicators. The charts show the balance by individual questions. Statistične informacije, št. 218/2005 6 Rapid Reports No 218/2005 Grafi prikazujejo desezonirane vrednosti. To so vrednosti, pri katerih je izločen vpliv sezonskih dejavnikov, vsebujejo pa trend - cikel in naključno komponento. Podatki za EU so desezonirani z metodo DAINTIES, za Slovenijo pa z metodo TRAMO/SEATS, ki temelji na ARIMA modelih. Data in the charts are seasonally adjusted. Values are adjusted for the seasonal component and include the trend-cycle component and the irregular component. Data for the EU are seasonally adjusted by the DAINTIES method and for Slovenia by the TRAMO/SEATS method, which is based on ARIMA models. Pri oblikovanju modelov smo upoštevali obdobje od januarja 1999 do januarja 2005. Pri pričakovanem povpraševanju se model za leto 2005 zaradi narave podatkov razlikuje od modela za leto 2004. Pri sedanjem poslovnem položaju, obsegu zalog, pričakovanem zaposlovanju, prodajnih cenah, pričakovanih prodajnih cenah, ravni prodaje in gibanju prodaje za to obdobje leta sezonska komponenta ni prisotna. The designing of the models is based on the time period from January 1999 to January 2005. Due to the nature of the data, the 2005 model differs from the 2004 model as regards expected demand. Present business situation, volume of stocks, expected employment, selling prices, selling prices expectations, level of sales and evolution of sales for this period of year have no seasonal component. Kazalec zaupanja je povprečje odgovorov (ravnotežij) na vprašanja o sedanjem in pričakovanem poslovnem položaju ter sedanjem obsegu zalog (obrnjen predznak). The confidence indicator shows an average of responses (balances) to questions on present and expected business situation and present volume of stocks (the latter with inverted sign). OBJAVLJANJE REZULTATOV PUBLISHING Sodelujoči v anketi prejmejo informacijo o dejavnosti, v katero so uvrščeni. Participants in the survey get the information on the activity of their enterprises. Drugim uporabnikom so ti podatki dostopni na ravni trgovine na drobno in po velikostnih razredih podjetij. Objavljamo jih mesečno v Statističnih informacijah in podatkovni bazi SI-STAT (http://www.stat.si). Other users can get data for retail trade and data for large, medium-sized and small enterprises published monthly in Rapid Reports and in the SI- STAT database (http://www.stat.si/eng). VPRAŠANJA: QUESTIONS: − Ocene stanj: • Ocena poslovnega položaja v zadnjih 3 mesecih: dober, zadovoljiv - normalen glede na sezono, slab? • Prodajne cene so v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem: višje, enake, nižje? • Ocena finančnega položaja v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem: boljši, enak, slabši? • Ocena obsega zalog: premajhne, ustrezne - normalne glede na sezono, prevelike? • Ocena prodaje glede na isti mesec lanskega leta: na višji ravni, na isti ravni, na nižji ravni? − Appreciation of situation: • Assessment of the present business situation over the past 3 months: good, satisfactory (normal for the season), bad? • Selling prices compared to the last month: up, unchanged, down? • Assessment of financial situation compared to the last month: better, same, worse? • Assessment of volume of stocks: too small, adequate (normal for the season), too large? • Assessment of sales compared to the same month of the previous year: at a higher level, unchanged, at a lower level? − Pričakovanja v naslednjih mesecih: • Pričakovani poslovni položaj čez 6 mesecev: boljši, enak, slabši? • Pričakovane prodajne cene v naslednjih 3 mesecih: višje, enake, nižje? • Pričakovano zaposlovanje v naslednjih 3 mesecih: povečalo, ostalo enako, zmanjšalo? • Pričakovani obseg skupne nabave (tuji in domači dobavitelji) v naslednjih 3 mesecih: večji, enak, manjši? • Pričakovano povpraševanje v naslednjih 3 mesecih: povečalo, ostalo enako, zmanjšalo? − Expectation in the next months: • Expected business situation 6 months ahead: better, same, worse? • Selling price expectations for the next 3 months: up, unchanged, down? • Employment expectations for the next 3 months: up, unchanged, down? • Expectations on orders to place with total suppliers (domestic and foreign) in the next 3 months: up, unchanged, down? • Expected demand for the next 3 months: up, unchanged, down? • Ocena konkurence na vašem področju glede na pretekli mesec: večja, enaka, manjša? • Ocena gibanja prodaje za to obdobje leta: dobro, zadovoljivo, slabo? • Dejavniki, ki ovirajo izboljšanje sedanjega položaja: ni omejitev, nizko povpraševanje, slaba ponudba, visoki stroški dela, visoka cena denarja, težka dostopnost do bančnih posojil, premajhna prodajna površina, premajhni skladiščni prostori, konkurenca v sektorju, ostalo? • Pričakovani obseg nabave pri domačih dobaviteljih v naslednjih 3 mesecih: večji, enak, manjši, nimamo domačih dobaviteljev? • Pričakovani obseg nabave pri tujih dobaviteljih v naslednjih 3 mesecih: večji, enak, manjši, nimamo tujih dobaviteljev? • Assessment of competition in own sector compared to the last month: up, unchanged, down? • Assessment of sales for this period of year: good, satisfactory, bad? • Factors limiting the improvement of the present business situation: none, low demand, bad supply, high labour costs , high costs of finance, problems with access to bank credits, small sales surface, small storage capacity, competition in own sector, other? • Expectations on orders to place with domestic suppliers in the next 3 months: up, unchanged, down, no domestic suppliers? • Expectations on orders to place with foreign suppliers in the next 3 months: up, unchanged, down, no foreign suppliers? Statistične informacije, št. 218/2005 Rapid Reports No 218/2005 7 KOMENTAR COMMENT V juliju 2005 se je desezonirana vrednost kazalca zaupanja v trgovini na drobno izboljšala v vseh treh primerjavah, in sicer je bila njegova vrednost v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem višja za 3 odstotne točke, v primerjavi z lanskim julijem za 7 odstotnih točk, v primerjavi z lanskim povprečjem pa za 5 odstotnih točk. In July 2005 the seasonally adjusted retail trade confidence indicator improved in all three comparisons. Compared to the previous month it went up by 3 percentage points, compared to July 2004 by 7 percentage points and compared to last year's average by 5 percentage points. OCENA STANJ APPRECIATION OF SITUATION POSLOVNI POLOŽAJ BUSINESS SITUATION V juliju 2005 je bila vrednost kazalca poslovni položaj za 4 odstotne točke višja kot v preteklem mesecu. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lanskega leta in v primerjavi z lanskim povprečjem se je njegova vrednost znižala, in to za 3 odstotne točke oziroma 2 odstotni točki. In July 2005 the business situation indicator rose by 4 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to July 2004 and to last year’s average it fell by 3 and by 2 percentage points, respectively. PRODAJNE CENE SELLING PRICES Vrednost kazalca prodajne cene je v mesečni primerjavi zrasla, in sicer za 2 odstotni točki v primerjavi z junijem 2005. Hkrati je bila za 6 odstotnih točk višja kot v lanskem juliju in za 1 odstotno točko nižja od lanskega povprečja. In a month-to-month comparison the indicator of the selling prices went up by 2 percentage points compared to June 2005. Its rise by 6 percentage points was also recorded in comparison with July 2004 and it was 1 percentage point below last year’s average. FINANČNI POLOŽAJ FINANCIAL SITUATION Desezonirana vrednost kazalca finančni položaj se je v vseh treh primerjavah malo izboljšala. V primerjavi s preteklim mesecem se je le-ta povečala za 2 odstotni točki, v primerjavi z istim mesecem lani za 5 odstotnih točk in v primerjavi z lanskim povprečjem za 1 odstotno točko. The seasonally adjusted indicator of the financial situation slightly improved in all three comparisons. Compared to the previous month it was up by 2 percentage points, compared to July 2004 by 5 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 1 percentage point. OBSEG ZALOG VOLUME OF STOCKS Kazalec obseg zalog je opazno padel v vseh treh primerjavah. V primerjavi z junijem 2005 je padel za 8 odstotnih točk, v primerjavi z julijem 2004 za 20 odstotnih točk in v primerjavi z lanskim povprečjem za 15 odstotnih točk. The volume of stocks indicator plummeted in all three comparisons. Compared to June 2005 it plummeted by 8 percentage points, compared to July 2004 by 20 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 15 percentage points. RAVEN PRODAJE LEVEL OF SALES Vrednost kazalca raven prodaje se je v primerjavi z junijem 2005 povečala za 3 odstotne točke. V primerjavi z julijem 2004 je njegova vrednost padla za 6 odstotnih točk, hkrati pa je bila za 7 odstotnih točk višja od lanskega povprečja. The indicator of the level of sales rose by 3 percentage points in comparison with June 2005. Compared to July 2004 it fell by 6 percentage points and it rose by 7 percentage points compared to last year’s average. PRIČAKOVANJA EXPECTATIONS PRIČAKOVANI POSLOVNI POLOŽAJ EXPECTED BUSINESS SITUATION V juliju 2005 je desezonirana vrednost kazalca pričakovani poslovni položaj v primerjavi z junijem 2005 nekoliko zrasla (za 1 odstotno točko). V primerjavi z julijem 2004 se je vrednost tega kazalca dvignila za 6 odstotnih točk, v primerjavi z lanskim povprečjem pa za 5 odstotnih točk. In July 2005 the seasonally adjusted indicator of the expected business situation showed a small increase of 1 percentage point compared to June 2005. In comparison with July 2004 it was up by 6 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 5 percentage points. PRIČAKOVANE PRODAJNE CENE SELLING PRICES EXPECTATIONS Vrednost kazalca pričakovane prodajne cene se je opazno izboljšala. V primerjavi s preteklim mesecem se je vrednost dvignila za 8 odstotnih točk, v primerjavi z julijem 2004 se je povzpela za 28 odstotnih točk in bila 9 odstotnih točk nad lanskim povprečjem. The selling prices expectations indicator markedly improved. Compared to the previous month it climbed up by 8 percentage points. In comparison with July 2004 it rocketed by 28 percentage points and it was 9 percentage points above last year’s average. Statistične informacije, št. 218/2005 8 Rapid Reports No 218/2005 PRIČAKOVANO ZAPOSLOVANJE EXPECTED EMPLOYMENT V juliju 2005 je vrednost kazalca pričakovano zaposlovanje v vseh primerjavah izrazito padla. Glede na junij 2005 se je njegova vrednost znižala za 7 odstotnih točk, glede na julij 2004 je bila nižja za 13 odstotnih točk, za 9 odstotnih točk pa je bila nižja od lanskega povprečja. In July 2005 the indicator of the expected employment decreased noticeably. In comparison with June 2005 it dropped by 7 percentage points, in comparison with July 2004 by 13 percentage points and in comparison with last year’s average by 9 percentage points. PRIČAKOVANA SKUPNA NABAVA EXPECTED ORDERS V juliju 2005 je bila desezonirana vrednost kazalca pričakovana skupna nabava za 5 odstotnih točk višja kot v juniju 2005, za 8 odstotnih točk višja kot v juliju 2004 in za 6 odstotnih točk višja od lanskega povprečja. In July 2005 the seasonally adjusted indicator of the expected orders climbed up by 5 percentage points in comparison with June 2005, compared to July 2004 by 8 percentage points and it was 6 percentage points above last year’s average. PRIČAKOVANO POVPRAŠEVANJE EXPECTED DEMAND V juliju 2005 je desezonirana vrednost kazalca pričakovano povpraševanje padla za 1 odstotno točko v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani je bila njegova vrednost nižja za 4 odstotne točke oziroma za 1 odstotno točko v primerjavi z lanskim povprečjem. In July 2005 the seasonally adjusted indicator of the expected demand went down by 1 percentage point compared to the previous month. Compared to July 2004 it was down by 4 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 1 percentage point. KONKURENČNOST COMPETITION Desezonirana vrednost kazalca konkurenčnost je bila za 1 odstotno točko višja od vrednosti v preteklem mesecu. Tudi v primerjavi z istim mesecem lani je njegova vrednost zrasla za 1 odstotno točko in bila hkrati za 2 odstotni točki pod lanskim povprečjem. The seasonally adjusted indicator of the competition slightly rose, i.e. by 1 percentage point when compared to the previous month. Its value also grew by 1 percentage point in comparison with July 2004 but it went down by 2 percentage points in comparison with last year’s average. GIBANJE PRODAJE ZA TO OBDOBJE LETA EVOLUTION OF SALES FOR THIS PERIOD OF YEAR V juliju 2005 je bil zabeležen izrazit dvig vrednosti kazalca gibanje prodaje za to obdobje leta: v primerjavi z junijem 2005 je bila vrednost tega kazalca višja za 17 odstotnih točk, v primerjavi z istim mesecem lanskega leta za 13 odstotnih točk in v primerjavi z lanskim povprečjem za 14 odstotnih točk. In July 2005 the value of the evolution of sales indicator showed an enormous overall rise. Compared to June 2005 it rocketed by 17 percentage points, compared to July 2004 by 13 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 14 percentage points. OMEJITVENI DEJAVNIKI V TRGOVINI NA DROBNO OBSTACLES IN RETAIL TRADE V trgovini na drobno se je 33 % podjetij (oz. 25 % prihodka) srečevalo z dejavniki iz skupine "hude omejitve". Delež teh podjetij se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem zmanjšal za 2 odstotni točki, medtem ko je v primerjavi z istim mesecem lanskega leta ostal nespremenjen. In retail trade 33% of enterprises (25% of turnover) were faced with “severe obstacles” in trading. Compared to the previous month the share of these enterprises fell by 2 percentage points, while it remained unchanged compared to the same month last year. Podjetij, ki so se srečevala s skupino dejavnikov "težave s ponudbo", je bilo 32 % (oz. 24 % prihodka), to je za 3 odstotne točke več kot v preteklem mesecu in za prav toliko več kot v juliju 2004. The share of enterprises faced with “supply difficulties” was 32% (24% of turnover). This share rose by 3 percentage points compared to the previous month as well as compared to July 2004. Podjetij, ki so se srečevala s skupino dejavnikov "težave s povpraševanjem", je bilo 26 % (oz. 32 % prihodka), kar je bilo za 1 odstotno točko manj kot v juniju 2005 in za 3 odstotne točke manj kot v juliju 2004. The share of enterprises faced with “demand difficulties” was 26% (32% of turnover), which was 1 percentage point less than in June 2005 and 3 percentage points less than in July 2004. Podjetij, ki pri svojem poslovanju niso imela omejitev, je bilo 9 % (oz. 19 % prihodka) oziroma prav toliko kot v preteklem mesecu in kot v juliju 2004. Only 9% of enterprises (19% of turnover) experienced no obstacles. The share of these enterprises stayed the same compared to the previous month and compared to July 2004. Podrobnejši pregled omejitvenih dejavnikov v trgovini na drobno1): − 47 % podjetij (ali 49 % prihodka) je omejevala konkurenca v sektorju, − 38 % podjetij (ali 35 % prihodka) so omejevali visoki stroški dela, − 30 % podjetij (ali 30 % prihodka) je omejevalo nezadostno povpraševanje, A more detailed overview of obstacles in retail trade1) shows that: − 47% of enterprises (or 49% of turnover) were limited by competition in their own sector, − 38% of enterprises (or 35% of turnover) were limited by high cost of labour, − 30% of enterprises (or 30% of turnover) were limited by insufficient demand, 1) Podjetja lahko označijo več dejavnikov, ki omejujejo njihovo poslovanje, zato vsota odstotkov ni 100. Enterprises can select several obstacles to their business, so the total is not 100%. Statistične informacije, št. 218/2005 Rapid Reports No 218/2005 9 − 22 % podjetij (ali 22 % prihodka) je omejevala visoka cena denarja, − 13 % podjetij (ali 6 % prihodka) je omejevala premajhna prodajna površina, − 13 % podjetij (ali 4 % prihodka) so omejevali drugi dejavniki, kot so finančna nedisciplina, visoke najemnine, slaba lokacija itd., − 11 % podjetij (ali 17 % prihodka) je omejevala dostopnost do bančnih posojil, − 10 % podjetij (ali 19 % prihodka) ni imelo omejitev v poslovanju, − 8 % podjetij (ali 5 % prihodka) so omejevali premajhni skladiščni prostori, − 3 % podjetij (ali 1 % prihodka) je omejevala slaba ponudba. − 22% of enterprises (or 22% of turnover) were limited by the high cost of money, − 13% of enterprises (or 6% of turnover) were limited by shortage of sales surface, − 13% of enterprises (or 4% of turnover) were limited by other factors such as lack of financial discipline, high rents, bad location, etc., − 11% of enterprises (or 17% of turnover) were limited in their access to bank credits, − 10% of enterprises (or 19% of turnover) experienced no obstacles, − 8% of enterprises (or 5% of turnover) were limited by small storage capacity, − 3% of enterprises (or 1% of turnover) were limited by supply shortage. Statistično raziskovanje je sofinancirala Evropska komisija. Za objavljene podatke in besedila je odgovoren izključno Statistični urad Republike Slovenije in ne Evropska komisija. The business survey is co-financed by the European Commission. However, the European Commission accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever with regard to the material published in this publication. Sestavila / Prepared by: Darja Regoršek Izdaja, založba in tisk Statistični urad Republike Slovenije, Ljubljana, Vožarski pot 12 - Uporaba in objava podatkov dovoljena le z navedbo vira - Odgovarja generalna direktorica mag. Irena Križman - Urednica zbirke Statistične informacije Marina Urbas - Urednica podzbirke Darja Regoršek - Slovensko besedilo jezikovno uredila Ivanka Zobec - Angleško besedilo jezikovno uredil Boris Panič - Naklada 100 izvodov - ISSN zbirke Statistične informacije 1408-192X - ISSN podzbirke Trgovina in druge storitvene dejavnosti 1408-9327 - Informacije daje Informacijsko središče, tel.: (01) 241 51 04 - El. pošta: info.stat@gov.si - http://www.stat.si. Edited, published and printed by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, Ljubljana, Vožarski pot 12 - These data can be used provided the source is acknowledged - Director-General Irena Križman - Rapid Reports editor Marina Urbas - Subject-matter editor Darja Regoršek - Slovene language editor Ivanka Zobec - English language editor Boris Panič - Total print run 100 copies - ISSN of Rapid Reports 1408-192X - ISSN of subcollection Distributive trade and other service activities 1408-9327 - Information is given by the Information Centre of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, tel.: +386 1 241 51 04 - E-mail: info.stat@gov.si - http://www.stat.si.