No. 1, Vol. XXIX, 2023 slovenian economic mirror Slovenian Economic Mirror (Ekonomsko ogledalo) No. 1 / Vol. XXIX / 2023 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Responsible Person: Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Director Editor: Barbara Bratuž Ferk, MSc Authors: Barbara Bratuž Ferk, MSc; Urška Brodar; Lejla Fajić; Marta Gregorčič, PhD; Marjan Hafner, MSc; Matevž Hribernik, MSc; Katarina Ivas, MSc; Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič; Janez Kušar, MSc; Andrej Kuštrin, PhD; Jože Markič, PhD; Helena Mervic; Tina Nenadič, MSc; Jure Povšnar; Denis Rogan, MSc; Urška Sodja; Dragica Šuc, MSc; Ana Vidrih, MSc Editorial Board: Marijana Bednaš, MSc; Lejla Fajić; Marta Gregorčič, PhD; Alenka Kajzer, PhD; Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc; Janez Kušar, MSc Translated by: Špela Potočnik Technical editing and layout: Bibijana Cirman Naglič Ljubljana, January 2023 ISSN 1581-1026 (pdf ) ©2023, Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the spotlight ............................................................................................................................................ 3 Current economic trends ........................................................................................................................ 7 International environment ........................................................................................................................9 Economic developments in Slovenia .................................................................................................. 11 Labour market ............................................................................................................................................. 19 Prices ............................................................................................................................................................... 21 Financial markets ....................................................................................................................................... 22 Balance of payments ................................................................................................................................. 23 Public finance .............................................................................................................................................. 24 Statistical appendix ................................................................................................................................27 The Economic Mirror is prepared based on statistical data available by 13th January 2023. On 1 January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev. 2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, took effect. It includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses. All analyses in the Slovenian Economic Mirror are based on SKD 2008, except when the previous classification, SKD 2002, is explicitly referred to. For more information on the introduction of the new classification see the SURS website http://www.stat.si/eng/skd_nace_2008.asp. All current comparisons (at the monthly, quarterly levels) in the Slovenian Economic Mirror are made on the basis of seasonally adjusted data, while year-on-year comparisons are based on original data. Unless otherwise indicated, all seasonally adjusted data for Slovenia are calculations by IMAD. Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 1/2023 In the spotlight In the spotlight 3 Sentiment indicators for the euro area improved towards the end of last year but still point to a possible contraction in economic activity in the fourth quarter; the ECB expects a substantial slowdown in economic growth this year. Amid high inflation, tight financing conditions and low confidence, quarterly GDP growth in the euro area slowed markedly in the third quarter of 2022, and, according to the available indicators, we can assume that economic activity also contracted in the final quarter. Confidence indicators improved slightly in November and December but still remain low. The ECB expects euro area economic growth to slow from 3.4% last year to 0.5% this year amid elevated uncertainty, high prices, deterioration in household purchasing power, global slowdown and tighter financing conditions, before recovering at a moderate pace to 1.9% in 2024 as the current headwinds ease. In Slovenia, the value of some economic activity indicators continued to decline in the last quarter of 2022; the economic climate improved in the last two months of 2022, but was still weaker than in the same period of 2021. After Slovenia’s export market share in the EU market declined again year-on-year in the third quarter, growth in the export-oriented sectors weakened further towards the end of the year. Growth in foreign trade in services was interrupted in October and real exports of goods to EU Member States continued to decline in current terms in November. The slow strengthening of manufacturing activity seen in the first three quarters of 2022 came to a halt towards the end of the year. Production in most sectors was also lower year-on-year. Turnover in trade and other market services decreased in October. The value of construction put in place increased significantly in the first 11 months of 2022, exceeding the previous year’s level by 44% in November. The slowdown in economic growth in most activities, elevated energy prices and warm weather led to lower consumption of natural gas and electricity. Natural gas consumption in November and December 2022 was 11% and 13% lower respectively than the comparable average consumption of the previous five years, and electricity consumption was 5% lower year-on-year. Household consumption remained similar on average in October and November to the previous quarter. In the last quarter of 2022, the financial situation of households deteriorated slightly in current terms and year-on-year. The impact on the most vulnerable groups was cushioned by government measures to mitigate price increases. We estimate that measures to mitigate price increases for households and enterprises, support businesses and reduce uncertainty about energy supplies this winter also contributed to a slight increase in the value of the economic climate indicator in the last two months of last year. In October, the number of persons in employment continued to rise year-on-year, and at the end of 2022 the number of unemployed was about one-fifth lower than in 2021; the average wage was again lower in real terms in October amid high inflation. As the number of people in employment reached a record high, year-on-year growth was 2.1% in October, slightly lower than in previous months. Growth was still high in construction, which faces major labour shortages. Employment of foreigners is increasingly contributing to overall growth in the number of persons in employment. According to seasonally adjusted data, the number of registered unemployed fell further in December. The number of long-term unemployed and unemployed over 50 has also been declining for more than one and a half years. Amid high inflation, the average gross wage in October was again lower year-on-year in real terms. However, the decline was slightly lower than in previous months, reflecting a less pronounced high base effect and an increase in public sector wages in October and an increase in nominal wages in certain private sector activities facing labour shortage. Year-on-year consumer price inflation edged up slightly in December (to 10.3%). It was higher than in November (when it was 10%), mainly due to stronger growth of service prices, which was 7.2% year-on-year. In our estimation, this was due to the low base resulting partly from the containment measures in force at the end of 2021 and also to higher prices of services in communications, restaurants and hotels, recreational and cultural activities, and health. Food price inflation continued to be the main driver of inflation in 2022, although it weakened slightly year-on-year in December due to the high base from 2021. The year-on-year rise in energy prices also slowed slightly at the end of the year, as prices of petroleum products fell in the face of a sharp decline in oil 4 Aktualno Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 1/2023 prices on the world markets and the appreciation of the euro. The year-on-year growth of Slovenian industrial producer prices has continued to gradually slow; at 19.7% it was still high but about 2 p.p. lower than in the euro area as a whole. The deficit of the consolidated balance of public finances widened towards the end of 2022, but in the first 11 months, at EUR 0.7 billion, it was significantly lower than in the same period of 2021. This was primarily due to lower expenditure on measures to mitigate the consequences of the epidemic, which was EUR 1.9 billion less than in the same period of 2021. At the same time, the scope of measures to cushion the impact of rising energy prices was expanded and is estimated to have contributed EUR 0.9 billion to the deficit in the first 11 months of 2022. The year-on-year increase in total expenditure in the first 11 months of 2022 was significantly lower than in 2021, reflecting lower expenditure on civil servants’ wages and subsidies to companies and lower growth of transfers to individuals and households related to measures to mitigate the consequences of the COVID-19 epidemic. Revenue in the first 11 months of 2022 was 10% higher year-on-year. Compared to the same period of 2021, revenue growth was lower, reflecting lower economic growth, the reduction of some tax burdens and the absence of one-off inflows from the sale of concessions. In the spotlight Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 1/2023 Jan 22 Nov 22 Jan 21 Jan 20 Jan 19 Jan 18 Jan 17 Jan 16 Jan 15 Source: SURS, calculations by IMAD. The deterioration in household purchasing power has been cushioned by government measures; the proportion of households with the lowest incomes facing financial distress has not increased significantly The average wage was still lower in real terms in October amid high inflation Average wage, real growth Running into debt Having to draw on savings Financial distress - total Average wage, nominal growth 20 10 Year-on-year growth, in % 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 15 10 5 0 -5 1 Jul 22 Oct 22 Apr 22 Jan 22 Oct 21 Jul 21 Apr 21 Jan 21 Oct 20 Jul 20 Jan 20 Apr 20 Oct 19 Jul 19 Jan 19 Jan 22 Jan 21 Jan 20 Jan 19 Jan 17 Jan 16 Jan 15 Jan 14 Jan 13 Jan 12 Jan 18 Source: SURS. Source: SURS (Consumer Survey). Inflation picked up slightly in December, mainly due to growth in services prices, and was higher than the average in the euro area Euro area HICP Slovenia HICP 14 Apr 19 -10 0 Dec 22 The general government deficit in the first 11 months of 2022 was significantly lower than in the same period of 2021, mainly due to lower expenditure on measures to mitigate the consequences of the epidemic Euro area HICP - CI Slovenia HICP - CI 2,000 12 General government balance Primary balance 1,000 2 0 -749.6 -1,000 -2,000 -2201.6 -3,000 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 Jul 22 Oct 22 Dec 22 Jan 22 Apr 22 Oct 21 Jul 21 Apr 21 Jan 21 Jul 20 Oct 20 Apr 20 Jan 20 Oct 19 Jul 19 Jan 19 Apr 19 Source: SURS, Eurostat. Note: CI - core inflation. -3542.2 2013 -4,000 -4 2012 -2 -2917.2 Source: MF, Bulletin of Government Finance; calculations by IMAD. I-XI 2022 4 I-XI 2021 6 0 2021 8 2020 Balance, in EUR million 10 2011 Share of answers in %, 12-month moving average Jan 13 Jan 12 Seasonally adjusted real index 2010=100, 3-month moving average Dec 22 Jan 22 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 Source: S&P Global. Note: A reading above 50 signals an expansion, while a figure below 50 indicates a contraction. Year-on-year price growth, in % Goods export Ind. prod. in manufacturing Construction output Turnover in retail trade without motor fuels Turnover in service activities Services Jan 21 Jan 20 Manufacturing Jan 19 Jan 18 PMI value for euro area Composite index 66 62 58 54 50 46 42 38 34 30 26 22 18 14 10 Some indicators of economic activity in Slovenia also declined in the last quarter of 2022 Jan 14 The composite PMI for the euro area rose at the end of 2022 but points to a possible economic downturn in the last quarter 5 current economic trends Current Economic Trends Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 1/2023 9 The international environment Figure 1: Composite PMI for the euro area Dec 22 Services Jan 22 Jan 21 Manufacturing Jan 20 Jan 19 Jan 18 PMI value for euro area Composite index 66 62 58 54 50 46 42 38 34 30 26 22 18 14 10 Source: S&P Global. Note: A reading above 50 signals an expansion, while a figure below 50 indicates a contraction. Although confidence indicators for the euro area improved in November and December, they still point to a possible economic contraction in the last quarter. Amid high inflation, tight financing conditions and low confidence, quarterly GDP growth in the euro area slowed markedly in the third quarter and, according to the available indicators, we can assume that economic activity contracted in the final quarter. Although confidence indicators (ESI and PMI) for the euro area rose slightly in November and December as inflationary pressures eased, orders in industry recorded a slight decline and confidence increased, they are still low. The value of the composite PMI was below 50 for the sixth consecutive month in December, the longest such sequence since 2013. According to the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI), confidence improved monthon-month in December in all activities and among consumers, but it was still significantly lower year-on-year. In December, sentiment also improved in the German economy compared to the previous month, with the ifo Index showing more optimism for current business and activities in the coming months. Source: ECB. 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 Change in inventories and valuables Gross fixed capital formation Government consumption Private consumption Exports of goods and services Real GDP growth (in %) 2014 Contribution to change, in p.p. Figure 2: ECB forecast of economic growth for the euro area Similar to previous forecasts by international institutions, the ECB expects a significant slowdown of economic growth in the euro area in 2023. Amid increased uncertainty, elevated prices, deterioration in household purchasing power, global economic slowdown and tighter financing conditions, euro area economic growth is expected to slow from 3.4% in 2022 to 0.5% in 2023, before rebounding at a moderate pace to 1.9% in 2024 as the current headwinds ease. After a short period of recession (Q4 2022 and Q1 2023), economic activity is expected to pick up in the second half of this year, when, under the assumptions of the baseline scenario, the energy market is expected to rebalance, uncertainty recede, supply bottlenecks resolve, real incomes improve and foreign demand strengthen. Inflation (HICP) is expected to stay elevated in the next few months as pipeline price pressures, the past depreciation of the euro and labour shortage continue to feed through to consumer prices. In 2023, inflation is expected to gradually decline as energy prices fall, from 8.4% last year to 6.3% this year and 3.4% in 2024. 10 Current Economic Trends Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 1/2023 Figure 3: Commodity prices, December 2022 Energy Food 180 The average energy commodity prices on international markets fell to the levels recorded before the start of the war in Ukraine. With relatively mild weather and European storage capacities still relatively filled, the euro prices of natural gas on the European market (Dutch TTF) fell by 2.7% compared to November, while they were 1% higher year-on-year. As the global economy is cooling, the dollar price of Brent crude oil decreased by 11.4% to USD 81 per barrel in December, though it was still up 9.1% year-on-year. The monthly decline in the euro price of oil was slightly greater at 14.8%, due to the weaker dollar, while year-on-year, the price of oil in euros was 16.4% higher. According to the World Bank, the average dollar price of non-energy commodities rose by 1% in December on the previous month, with metal and wood prices increasing. Dollar prices of nonenergy commodities were lower year-on-year on average (by 2.4%), though still significantly higher than before the epidemic. Food prices on international commodity markets were higher than a year ago (by 6.3%), while prices of industrial raw materials, fertilisers, and metals and minerals were lower. Non-energy commodities Metals 160 Index 2010=100 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Dec 22 Jan 23 Jan 22 Jan 21 Jan 20 Jan 19 Jan 18 Jan 17 Jan 16 Jan 15 Jan 14 Jan 13 Jan 12 0 Source: World Bank. NEER 102 After deteriorating in the summer months, price competitiveness returned to the early 2022 level in the autumn but remained well below its long-term average. By the end of 2022, the euro had appreciated against most currencies of Slovenia’s major non-euro area trading partners, especially against Asian currencies. The deterioration in price competitiveness due to the appreciation of the euro was mitigated by slightly lower (but still high) inflation, which during the summer months was well above the inflation recorded in Slovenia’s trading partners. The price competitiveness indicator (real effective exchange rate deflated by the HICP) has thus returned to the early 2022 level after having deteriorated significantly. With relatively marked fluctuations in 2022, nominal and real effective exchange rates remain below their long-term averages. REER hicp 100 98 96 Nov 22 Jun 22 Jan 22 Aug 21 Oct 20 Mar 21 May 20 Dec 19 Jul 19 Feb 19 Sep 18 Apr 18 Nov 17 Jan 17 94 Jun 17 Long-term average since ERM II entry =100 Figure 4: Effective exchange rates, November 2022 Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD. NEER - nominal effective exchange rate, REER hicp - real effective exchange rate deflated by HICP. A rise in the index means appreciation of the euro and/or an increase in relative prices against a basket of 37 tradingpartners. Table 1: Prices of oil, natural gas and non-energy commodities, the USD/EUR exchange rate and EURIBOR average Brent USD, per barrel Brent EUR, per barrel Natural gas (TTF)2, EUR/MWh change, in %1 2022 XI 22 XII 22 XII 22/XI 22 XII 22/XII 21 2022/2021 100.79 91.42 81.00 -11.4 9.1 42.6 95.79 89.73 76.49 -14.7 16.4 60.6 131.98 119.33 116.17 -2.7 1.0 179.6 -11.0 USD/EUR 1.054 1.020 1.059 3.8 -6.3 3-month EURIBOR, in % 0.342 1.825 2.066 24.1 264.8 89.1 123.59 114.18 115.33 1.0 -2.4 10.6 Non-energy commodity prices, index 2010=100 Source: EIA, ECB, World Bank; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1 for Euribor, change is in basis points, 2 trading point for natural gas in the Netherlands. Current Economic Trends Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 1/2023 11 Current economic trends Nov 22 Jan 22 Jan 21 Jan 20 Jan 19 Jan 18 Jan 17 Jan 16 Jan 15 Jan 14 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 Jan 13 Goods export Ind. prod. in manufacturing Construction output Turnover in retail trade without motor fuels Turnover in service activities Jan 12 Seasonally adjusted real index 2010=100, 3-month moving average Figure 5: Short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia, October–November 2022 Source: SURS, calculations by IMAD. In Slovenia, the value of some indicators of economic activity continued to decline in the last quarter of 2022; the economic climate improved in the last two months of 2022 but was still weaker than in the same period of 2021. Following a year-on-year fall in Slovenia’s export market share in the EU market in the third quarter, growth in the export-oriented sectors weakened further towards the end of the year. Growth in foreign trade in services was interrupted in October and real exports of goods to EU Member States continued to decline in current terms in November. The slow strengthening of manufacturing activity seen in the first three quarters of 2022 came to a halt towards the end of the year. Production in most sectors was also lower year-on-year. Turnover in trade and other market services decreased in October. The value of construction put in place increased significantly in the first 11 months of 2022, exceeding the previous year’s level by 44% in November. The slowdown in economic growth in most activities, elevated energy prices and warm weather led to lower consumption of natural gas and electricity. Natural gas consumption in November and December 2022 was 11% and 13% lower respectively than the comparable average consumption of the previous five years, and electricity consumption was 5% lower year-on-year. Household consumption remained similar on average in October and November to the previous quarter. In the last quarter of 2022, the financial situation of households deteriorated slightly both in current terms and year-on-year. The impact on the most vulnerable groups was cushioned by government measures to mitigate price increases. We estimate that measures to mitigate price increases for households and enterprises, support businesses and reduce uncertainty about energy supplies this winter also contributed to a slight increase in the value of the sentiment indicator in the last two months of last year. Dec 22 Sep 22 Jun 22 Mar 22 Dec 21 Croatia Slovenia Sep 21 Jun 21 Mar 21 France Germany Dec 20 Sep 20 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 Jun 20 Austria Italy Mar 20 Year-on-year change, in % Figure 6: Electricity consumption, December 2022 Source: ENTSO-E and Bruegel.org. Notes: Only consumption on working days (between 8.00 and18.00) is considered. The percentages are adjusted for temperature differences. 3-month moving averages are shown until August 2022. Electricity consumption was 5% lower year-onyear in December. In our estimation, both industrial and household consumption were lower. Due to high electricity prices, in certain energy-intensive industrial companies in particular production volume has been reduced and manufacturing technologies have possibly been modernised to increase energy efficiency. The year-on-year lower household consumption may have resulted from energy saving and/or from fewer people working from home. Compared to December 2021, consumption was also lower in our main trading partners (by 4% in Italy and Croatia, 5% in Austria and Germany, and 11% in France). 12 Current Economic Trends Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 1/2023 Figure 7: Electricity consumption by consumption group, December 2022 Industry Households Small business consumption Total distribution network consumption Year-on-year change, in % 30 20 10 0 -10 Oct 22 Dec 22 Jul 22 Jan 22 Apr 22 Oct 21 Jul 21 Apr 21 Jan 21 Jul 20 Oct 20 Apr 20 -30 Jan 20 -20 Source: SODO; calculations by IMAD. Note: Excluding the effect of temperature differences. In December 2022, industrial and household consumption in the distribution network were lower year-on-year, while small business consumption was higher. Industrial consumption was 6.8% lower than in December 2021. According to our estimate, this was due to the lower consumption by some energyintensive companies, which reduced their production volume under the impact of high electricity prices or improved the energy efficiency of their production processes. Household consumption was also lower than in December 2021 (by 2.6%), mainly due to more rational energy consumption and possibly also because fewer people worked from home. Small business consumption1 was 2.2% higher year-on-year in December 2022 due to the absence of COVID-19 containment measures. 1 In this consumption group, consumption is most frequently measured in shops and service activities. This group also includes warehouses, agricultural activity, etc. and large manufacturing plants that do not consume significant amounts of electricity at some measurement points. 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 September -10 Source: Plinovodi d.o.o., calculations by IMAD. Note: Final data until 30 November. 2/1/23 19/12/22 5/12/22 21/11/22 7/11/22 24/10/22 26/9/22 10/10/22 12/9/22 October 15/8/22 -30 -10 December August 1/8/22 -20 0 November -20 -30 Difference to the comparable five-year average, in % Daily consumption of natural gas in Slovenia Average comparable natural gas consumption over the previous 5 years 14-day moving averages of daily declines (right axis) Average monthly decline (right axis) 29/8/22 Natural gas consumption, in GWh Figure 8: Natural gas consumption, December 2022 With the warm weather, natural gas consumption in October was more than a fifth below the comparable average consumption over the last five years.2 In the last two months of 2022, the gap narrowed again, amounting to 11% and 13% respectively. Part of industry3 reacted to the high gas prices by reducing production output and thus consumption. Government measures4 also contributed to a more rational use of gas. After a warm October, the gap with comparable gas consumption in previous years narrowed towards the end of the year. By mid-November, EU Member States were able to ensure that their gas storage capacities were almost full, but since then the storage level has been gradually declining.5 According to preliminary data, gas consumption in Slovenia from 1 August 2022 to 5 January 2023 was 14% lower than the comparable average consumption over the last five years, which is slightly below the EU recommendations for gas consumption reduction in the August 2022 to March 2023 period. 2 3 4 5 In accordance with Council Regulation (EU) 2022/1369 of 5 August 2022 on coordinated demand-reduction measures for gas, in the period from 1 August 2022 to 31 March 2023 all EU Member States have to reduce their gas consumption by at least 15% compared to their average consumption in the same period over the last five years. According to SURS data, in 2021 most of the gas in Slovenia, 62%, was consumed directly in manufacturing and construction, 15% in households and the rest mainly for the production of heat and electricity. Possible measures under the Regulation include replacement of gas with liquid fuels in electricity generation, measures to encourage fuel switch in industry, obligations to reduce heating and cooling in public buildings, and awareness raising campaigns. The Government has already implemented some of these measures. According to Plinovodi, gas storage capacities in the EU were 95.5% full on 12 November 2022, but then this percentage started to decline and was 83.5% on 1 January 2023. Current Economic Trends Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 1/2023 13 Figure 9: Value of fiscally verified invoices – nominal, December 2022 50 40 Y-on-y change , in % 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 Jul 22 Jan 22 Apr 22 Oct 21 Jul 21 Jan 21 Apr 21 Oct 20 Jul 20 Jan 20 Apr 20 -40 Oct 22 Dec 22 -30 Source: FURS Financial Administration of the Republic of Slovenia; calculations by IMAD. Amid high price growth, the value of fiscally verified invoices in December was higher year-on-year in nominal terms and compared to the same period of 2019 (by 12% and by 16% respectively). With two fewer working days in the month, the slightly lower growth than in the previous month (15%) was mainly due to somewhat lower growth in retail trade (10%), where growth slowed in all three main sectors (wholesale trade, retail trade and sales of motor vehicles). Partly due to the low base in December 2021, when strict COVID-19 containment measures were in place,6 turnover growth continued to strengthen in accommodation and food service activities (to 30% – 35% for food and beverages and 17% for accommodation establishments) and gambling and betting (to 40%). Nominal growth also remained high in creative, arts and entertainment activities (54%) and sports activities and amusement and recreation activities (28%). 6 Following the extension of the vaccinated/tested/recovered rule to users of most services in September, November 2021 saw the introduction of a restriction on the opening hours of hotels and restaurants, the closure of nightclubs, bars and other venues offering music, the restriction of gatherings of people, and proof of compliance with the vaccinated/tested/recovered rule in combination with an ID document, among other measures. Figure 10: Trade in goods – in real terms, November 2022 Exports to the EU Imports from the EU 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Nov 22 Jan 22 Jan 21 Jan 20 Jan 19 Jan 18 Jan 17 Jan 16 Jan 15 Jan 14 Jan 13 80 Jan 12 Seasonally adjusted real index 2010=100, 3-month moving average 190 Goods trade with EU countries continued to decrease in November. Real trade in goods with EU countries decreased by around 4% (seasonally adjusted). It was also lower year-on-year. The decline in trade with EU countries was due to uncertainty and low sentiment indicator values in industry and among consumers in some of Slovenia’s main trading partners, notably Germany and Italy. According to initial estimates, trade in intermediate products (excluding petroleum products) in particular has declined in recent months.7 In the first 11 months, exports to EU countries rose by 5.5% year-onyear and imports by 2.6%. Sentiment in export-oriented industries improved slightly in December, but export orders remained very low with the great uncertainty in the international environment. 7 Data on new loans are available until October 2022. 14 Current Economic Trends Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 1/2023 Figure 11: Slovenia’s export market share in the EU market, Q3 2022 Market share Slovenian exports to the EU Imports from the EU 40 20 10 0 -10 Q1 22 Q3 22 Q1 21 Q1 20 Q1 19 Q1 18 Q1 17 Q1 16 Q1 15 Q1 14 Q1 13 Q1 12 Q1 11 Q1 10 -30 Q1 09 -20 Q1 08 Year-on-year change, in % 30 Source: SURS, Eurostat. Slovenia’s export market share in the EU market continued to decline in the third quarter of 2022. Amid strong year-on-year nominal growth in the euro value of Slovenian merchandise exports and even stronger growth in EU merchandise imports,8 initial estimates suggest that Slovenia’s market share in the EU market fell by 4.3% year-on-year in the third quarter and by 5.1% in the first three quarters combined. Although the decline was largely due to lower foreign demand for products that account for a relatively large share of Slovenian exports (a structural effect), the export performance of individual products also deteriorated. Market shares decreased for most major manufacturing product groups (road vehicles, electrical machinery, apparatus and equipment, and pharmaceuticals) but increased for industrial machinery. Among energy-intensive products, market shares declined for chemical and non-metallic mineral products, while they increased for metals (iron, steel and aluminium) and paper. Among Slovenia’s main trading partners, France and Germany recorded the strongest drops compared to both the previous year and the pre-epidemic level. 8 The high values of foreign trade flows are mainly influenced by strong price increases. Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. Oct 22 Jan 22 Jan 21 Jan 20 Jan 19 Jan 18 Imports of services Jan 17 Jan 16 Jan 15 Jan 14 Jan 13 Exports of services 1000 950 900 850 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 Jan 12 In EUR million, seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average Figure 12: Trade in services – nominal, October 2022 The growth in foreign trade in services was interrupted in October (seasonally adjusted). Compared to previous months, both imports and exports of services decreased. Trade fell in travel and other business services9 and a more pronounced decline was also recorded in transport services. This was mainly linked to lower trade in goods and cooling of economic activity in Slovenia’s main trading partners. Among main services, only ICT services saw an increase in trade (seasonally adjusted). Due to the low base from 2021, year-on-year growth in trade in services remained very high in the first ten months (29.4%), exceeding pre-epidemic levels (January–October 2019) by a quarter. However, due to low levels at the beginning of 2022, the services most affected by the containment measures (tourism-related services and personal, cultural and recreation services) continued to lag behind their pre-crisis levels in the same period.10 9 10 Spending by foreign tourists, same-day visitors and transit passengers in Slovenia decreased more significantly, while spending by Slovenian guests abroad increased slightly. The same is true for other business services, where exports fell and imports increased. From June 2022, the values of tourism-related services and personal, cultural and recreation services have been higher than in the same month of 2019. Current Economic Trends Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 1/2023 15 Figure 13: Production volume in manufacturing, November 2022 High-tech ind. Medium-low-tech. ind. 280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 Nov Jan 22 23 Jan 22 Jan 21 Jan 20 Jan 19 Jan 18 Jan 17 Jan 16 Jan 15 Jan 14 Jan 13 80 Jan 12 Seasonally adjusted real index 2010=100, 3-month moving averages Manufacturing, tot. Medium-high-tech. ind. Low-tech ind. Source: SURS, calculations IMAD. The slow strengthening of manufacturing activity seen in the first three quarters of 2022 came to a halt towards the end of the year. Production in most sectors was also lower year-on-year. After year-on-year growth in the first half of the year, production in lowtechnology industries (in addition to the more energyintensive paper industry and, in recent months, also in the wood-processing and furniture industries and the manufacture of food products) was lower year-on-year from the middle of last year. Especially in October and November, medium-low-technology industries (with the exception of the manufacture of fabricated metal products, which is less energy intensive) and some medium-high-technology industries also lagged behind the previous year’s level. In the latter industries, we assess that this is more related to supply chain disruptions and lower demand (in the manufacture of motor vehicles and the manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c.) than to energy intensity (which is greater in the chemical industry). In high-technology industries, production in the manufacture of ICT equipment and, in our estimation, the pharmaceutical industry remained higher than a year ago, with output in the first 11 months of 2022 up by onefifth compared to the same period of 2021. Growth in all other sectors was below 2% on average over the same period. Seasonally adjusted data 3-month moving averages, seasonally adjusted 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Jan 22 Jan 21 Jan 20 Jan 19 Jan 18 Jan 17 Jan 16 Jan 15 Jan 14 Jan 13 40 Nov 22 50 Jan 12 Real construction production index (2010=100) Figure 14: Activity in construction, November 2022 According to figures on the value of construction put in place, construction activity in November was considerably higher than in 2021. The value of construction put in place increased significantly in 2022 and was 44% higher year-on-year in November. Compared to previous years, construction of buildings stands out in terms of the level of activity. Activity was also high in civil engineering, while it was lower in specialised construction work (installation works and building completion). The implicit deflator of the value of construction work put in place (used to measure prices in the construction sector) was 17% in November, which was slightly less than in previous months. However, some other data suggest significantly lower construction activity. The value of industrial production in two activities traditionally strongly linked to construction does not point to such high growth. Production in other mining and quarrying was 10% higher in November than in the same month of 2021, while it was 9% lower in the manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products. 16 Current Economic Trends Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 1/2023 Total Sale of motor vehicles Wholesale trade Retail trade Retail trade, except fuel 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 . by IMAD. Source: SURS; calculations Nov 22 Jan 22 Jan 21 Jan 20 Jan 19 Jan 18 Jan 17 Jan 16 Jan 15 Jan 14 Jan 13 80 Jan 12 Seasonally adjusted real index 2010=100, 3-month moving average Figure 15: Turnover in trade, October–November 2022 Average turnover in October and November was close to that recorded in the third quarter in real terms. Turnover in retail trade excluding fuel fell in October, partly due to the timing of the holidays, but rose in November, according to preliminary SURS data. The average for both months was similar to Q3. In October and November, turnover was higher year-on-year in retail sales of nonfood products, while sales of food, beverages and tobacco products were lower. Turnover in the sale of motor vehicles, where, after a significant increase in the third quarter, turnover declined in October and, according to preliminary data, also in November, also remained lower than a year ago. In October, turnover further declined in wholesale trade, where year-on-year growth also continued to weaken Jan 22 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: * including real estate. Oct 22 Jan 21 Jan 20 Jan 19 Jan 18 Jan 17 Jan 16 Jan 15 Jan 14 Jan 13 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Total * Transportation and storage (H) Information and communication activities (J) Professional and technical activities (M) Administrative and support service activities (N) Accommodation and food service activities (I) Jan 12 Seasonally adjusted real index 2010=100, 3-month moving average Figure 16: Turnover in market services, October 2022 Real income from market services fell in October. It fell in current terms for the second month in a row, this time by 1%, while it was 3.3% higher year-on-year. After two months of sustained growth, turnover in transportation and storage again fell significantly, most markedly in storage. A slightly lower turnover was also recorded in professional and technical activities, with a more pronounced decline in architectural and engineering services. After declining, turnover increased again in accommodation and food service activities. Turnover in information and communication activities increased again, mainly due to higher turnover in computer services on both the domestic and international markets. Turnover growth in administrative and support service activities slowed, with a renewed decline in travel and employment agencies. In the first ten months of last year, turnover was higher year-on-year in all activities, though that of travel and employment agencies still lagged behind the pre-epidemic levels (October 2019), by 24% and 14% respectively. Table 2: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia In % 2021 XI 22/X 22 XI 22/XI 21 I-XI 22/I-XI 21 Merchandise exports, real1 14.3 6.63 11.7 15.7 - to the EU 14.1 -3.93 -4.2 5.5 3 Merchandise imports, real 16.1 -2.4 6.0 12.2 - from the EU 12.0 -4.13 -1.4 2.6 Industrial production, real 10.2 0.63 -3.6 2.4 - manufacturing 11.8 0.33 0.3 4.8 Construction - value of construction put in place, real -0.5 -3.43 44.0 30.9 I-X 22/I-X 21 1 In % 2021 X 22/IX 22 X 22/X 21 Services exports, nominal2 19.2 -9.73 14.1 33.1 Services imports, nominal2 19.0 -2.83 9.4 24.2 Distributive trades - real turnover 11.6 -2.83 6.64 12.74 Market services (without trade) - real turnover 12.8 -1.03 5.14 13.44 Sources: BoS, Eurostat, SURS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1 External trade statistics, deflated by IMAD, 2 balance of payments statistics, 3 seasonally adjusted, 4 working-day adjusted data. Current Economic Trends Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 1/2023 17 Road Road – cross-trade Road - loaded, unloaded and national Railway 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 Q3 22 Q1 22 Q1 21 Q1 20 Q1 19 Q1 18 Q1 17 Q1 16 Q1 15 Q1 14 60 Q1 13 80 Q1 12 In million tkm, seas. adj. index 2010=100 Figure 17: Road and rail transport, Q3 2022 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. The volume of road freight transport continued to decrease significantly in the third quarter of 2022, while the volume of rail transport remained stable. The volume of road transport performed by Slovenian vehicles decreased significantly quarter-on-quarter for the second quarter in a row and was almost 5% lower than in the same quarter of 2019 (cross-trade by 8% and other road transport by 1%). The sharp quarter-onquarter decline was related to the decline in the volume of transport performed at least partially on Slovenian territory (exports, imports and national transport combined). The share of cross-trade transport performed by Slovenian vehicles in total transport thus increased markedly (to 47%) and was no longer significantly lower than in the same period before the epidemic (when it was 49%).11 Rail freight transport, already declining before the epidemic, was about 7% lower than in the same quarter of 2019. 11 The share of foreign vehicle traffic on Slovenian motorways (measured in kilometres driven) was only 1 p.p. lower in Q3 2022 than in the same period of 2019, according to DARS data. Figure 18: Selected indicators of household consumption, October–November 2022 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: The Q4 2022 figure for the turnover in accommodation and food service is value for October, for others is the average value for October and November. Q1 22 Q4 22 Q1 21 Q1 20 Q1 19 Q1 18 Q1 17 Q1 16 Q1 15 Q1 14 Q1 13 Q1 12 Q1 11 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Q1 10 Seasonally adjusted index 2010=100 Household consumption Real turnover in the sale of non-food products Real turnover in the sale of food and beverages Real turnover in the accommodation and food service activities Sale of passenger cars to natural persons At the beginning of the last quarter of last year, household expenditure remained similar to the third quarter. In October and November, expenditure on nonfood products was similar to previous months, with a further slowdown in year-on-year growth due to a higher base. Sales of new passenger cars continued to decline, with October and November well below 2021 sales (by one-fifth) and pre-COVID-19 sales (by 37%). Sales of food, beverages and tobacco products, which account for about 20% of total household expenditure, were also slightly lower.12 After the deadline for the redemption of vouchers expired in June, the number of overnight stays by domestic tourists declined in the following months, and consequently also expenditure on tourist services in the domestic market,13 while expenditure on tourist services abroad increased compared to the previous year.14 12 13 14 The share of expenditure on food, beverages and tobacco products in total household final consumption expenditure in the territory of Slovenia was 18.8% in 2019, 20.7% in 2020 and 19% in 2021. Overall, turnover in accommodation and food service activities was 15% higher year-on-year in real terms in October, due in particular to higher spending by foreign tourists (the number of their overnight stays was 61% higher year-on-year). In November, the number of overnight stays by domestic tourists was still lower year-on-year (by 43%), while the number of overnight stays by foreign tourists was higher (by 65%). Yearon-year turnover growth was also affected by the low base from 2021, as the vaccinated/tested/recovered rule was extended to users of most services in mid-September 2021. In October, imports of private travel were 26% higher in nominal terms. 18 Current Economic Trends Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 1/2023 Figure 19: Economic sentiment, December 2022 Economic sentiment Retail trade Construction 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 Jan 22 Dec 22 Jan 23 Jan 21 Jan 20 Jan 19 Jan 18 Jan 17 Jan 16 Jan 15 Jan 14 -50 Jan 13 -40 Jan 12 Seasonally adjusted indicator value, 3-month moving average 30 Manufacturing Service activities Consumers Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. The value of the Economic Sentiment Indicator rose for the second month in a row in December but remained down year-on-year. However, the gap with the previous year was the smallest in seven months. Confidence rose for the second month in a row in all activities except for remaining unchanged in services in December, while it was significantly higher among consumers. We assume that this was mainly related to measures to mitigate rising prices for households and companies, support for businesses, and lower uncertainty related to energy supply this winter. Year-on-year, confidence remained higher in retail trade and services, while it was lower in manufacturing, among consumers and, slightly, in construction. In manufacturing, this was related to the situation in the international environment (high prices of intermediate goods and energy and uncertainty about economic growth in Slovenia’s main trading partners), while lower confidence among consumers was related to lower purchasing power due to high prices. Transactions in existing residential properties Transactions in new residential properties Prices of existing residential properties Prices of new residential properties 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 Q1 22 Q3 22 Q1 21 Q1 20 Q1 19 Q1 18 Q1 17 Q1 16 Q1 15 Q1 14 Q1 13 Q1 12 Q1 11 Q1 10 Q1 09 0 Q1 08 Index 2010=100, 4-quarter moving averages Figure 20: Real estate, Q3 2022 Amid a further decline in the number of transactions, the growth in prices of dwellings continued in Q3 2022. Prices increased by 2.4% compared to the second quarter and, following an increase of 11.5% in 2021 as a whole, were 15.4% higher year-on-year. The high growth was mainly due to higher prices of existing dwellings (by 15.6%), where the number of transactions was the lowest in 18 months (10% lower year-on-year). Prices of newly built dwellings were also higher (by 13.7%), but these dwellings accounted for only 1% of all transactions (39 transactions) due to insufficient supply. The total value of housing transactions for all types of dwellings sold in the third quarter was EUR 385 million, about 5% less than in the same quarter of 2021. Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: Due to methodological changes transaction data are available from 2010 onwards. Figure 21: Households facing financial distress, December 2022 Running into debt Having to draw on savings Financial distress - total 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Source: SURS (Consumer Survey). Jan 22 Dec 22 Jan 21 Jan 20 Jan 19 Jan 18 Jan 17 Jan 16 Jan 15 Jan 14 Jan 13 0 Jan 12 Share of answers in %, 12-month moving average 10 The financial situation of households deteriorated slightly over the last quarter of 2022 compared to the previous quarter and year-on-year. At the same time, the proportion of households in the lowest income quartile facing financial distress15 did not increase significantly. In our view, government measures such as the energy allowance for the poorest households (recipients of social assistance or income support and disabled persons), the dearness allowance for families with children, the allowance for pensioners and the capping of energy prices have also made an important contribution. Households facing financial distress continued to cover their financial needs to a greater extent by drawing on savings, and the proportion of households running into debt increased slightly. 15 Financial distress is defined as households having to draw on savings or run into debt to cover current expenditures. Current Economic Trends Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 1/2023 19 Labour market Figure 22: Number of persons in employment, October 2022 920 Number of employed according to SRE, in ‘000, seasonally adjusted 900 880 860 840 820 800 780 760 Jan 22 Oct 22 Jan 21 Jan 20 Jan 19 Jan 18 Jan 17 Jan 16 Jan 15 Jan 14 Jan 13 Jan 12 740 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. With the number of people in employment reaching a record high, year-on-year growth was 2.1% in October, slightly lower than in previous months. It remained high in construction, which faces major labour shortages. The employment of foreign workers has recently been increasingly contributing to overall growth in the number of people in employment – in October, foreign workers contributed 77% to year-on-year employment growth. Consequently, the share of foreign nationals among all persons in employment is also increasing, up 1.3 p.p. to 13.8% in the last year. Activities with the largest share of foreign workers are construction (47%), transportation and storage (32%), and administrative and support service activities (26%). In the first ten months, the number of people in employment rose by an average of 2.6% year-on-year. Figure 23: Number of registered unemployed, December 2022 All unemployed Long-term unemployed 120 100 80 60 40 20 Jan 22 Jan 21 Jan 20 Jan 19 Jan 18 Jan 17 Jan 16 Jan 15 Jan 14 Jan 13 Jan 12 0 Dec 22 Number of registered unemployed in '000 140 Source: ESS. According to the seasonally adjusted data, the monthly decline in the number of registered unemployed was larger in December (2.2%) than in previous months. According to the original data, 53,181 people were unemployed at the end of December, 1.2% more than at the end of November. This largely reflects seasonal trends related to a higher inflow into unemployment due to expiry of fixed-term employment contracts. Unemployment was down 19.4% year-on-year. Under conditions of high demand for labour, which is also reflected in the high vacancy rate, the number of long-term unemployed has also been declining since May 2021 – their number was almost one-third lower year-on-year in December. The number of unemployed people over 50, who are often long-term unemployed, is also declining – in December, their number was a little less than one-fifth lower than a year ago. Figure 24: Number of FSA beneficiaries and UB recipients, November 2022 120 100 80 60 40 Sources: MDDSZ, ESS, calculations by IMAD. Jan 22 Jan 21 Jan 20 Jan 19 Jan 18 Jan 17 Jan 16 Jan 15 Jan 14 0 Nov 22 20 Jan 13 Number of recipients in '000, seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average Recipients of financial social assistance (FSA) Recipients of unemployment benefits (UB) In November, the number of financial social assistance (FSA) beneficiaries and unemployment benefit (UB) recipients fell year-on-year by more than 10%. According to seasonally adjusted data, the number of FSA beneficiaries remained at October’s level, while the number of UB recipients increased slightly. According to original data, the number of FSA beneficiaries has been declining since mid-2021 and reached its lowest level in October 2022. This was mainly due to the improved labour market situation and – in a context of labour shortages – to the increased employment of longterm unemployed, who are often FSA beneficiaries. In November, 77.852 people received FSA, which is 10.9% less than in November 2021. The number of UB recipients was also lower year-on-year in November, by 11.4% (14,059 people according to original data). 20 Current Economic Trends Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 1/2023 Private sector 20 Public sector Total 16 12 8 4 0 -4 -8 -12 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Oct 22 Jan 22 Jan 21 Jan 20 Jan 19 Jan 18 Jan 17 Jan 16 Jan 15 Jan 14 -20 Jan 13 -16 Jan 12 Year-on-year growth, 3-month moving average, in % Figure 25: Average nominal gross wage per employee, October 2022 Amid high inflation, the average gross wage fell by 2.4% year-on-year in real terms in October; the decline was more pronounced in the public sector than in the private sector. In the private sector, the yearon-year real decline (1.9%) was lower than in the previous months, while in transportation and storage, an activity with above-average labour shortage, wages increased year-on-year. In the public sector, the year-on-year real decline (3.1%) was also lower than in previous months, mainly due to the agreement on wage increases from October this year. The average wage in health and social work activities, where wages also increased in December 2021 (though not for all employees), was higher yearon-year in real terms. Compared to October last year, the average gross wage increased by 7.3% in nominal terms – by 6.5% in the public sector and by 7.9% in the private sector. Table 3: Indicators of labour market trends Change, in % 2021 X 22/IX 22 X 22/X 21 I-X 22/I-X 21 Persons in formal employment2 1.3 0.2 2.0 2.5 Average nominal gross wage 2.1 6.1 1.1 7.3 private sector 6.1 1.3 7.9 6.2 public sector 6.5 0.7 6.5 -4.2 -6.7 of which general government 7.0 3.5 5.8 of which public corporations 4.7 -0.5 8.5 4.0 2021 X 21 IX 22 X 22 Rate of registered unemployment (in %), seasonally adjusted 7.6 7.0 5.6 5.5 Change, in % 2021 XII 22/XI 22 XII 22/XII 21 I-XII 22/I-XII 21 Registered unemployed -12.6 1.2 -19.4 -23.8 Sources: ESS, SURS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1 Seasonally adjusted. 2 Persons in paid employment, self-employed persons and farmers (SRDAP). Current Economic Trends Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 1/2023 21 Prices Figure 26: Consumer prices, December 2022 Year-on-year consumer price inflation edged up slightly to 10.3% in December. It was thus higher than in November, mainly due to the stronger increase in services prices, which were 7.2% higher year-on-year. We estimate that this was, in addition to the low base resulting partly from containment measures in force at the end of 2021, also due to higher prices of services in December in communications, restaurants and hotels, recreational and cultural activities, and health. Last year, the largest upward impact on inflation came from higher prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages (3.1 p.p.). While their year-on-year increase at the end of the year was somewhat lower (18.6%) than in November, due to the high base, prices in this group continued to rise significantly month-on-month (by 1.7%, slightly above the monthly average of the previous year). The year-onyear increase in energy prices continued to slow slightly towards the end of the year, to around 16% according to our estimate, and the contribution to inflation was slightly below 2 p.p. The slowdown in economic activity and the reduction of bottlenecks and cost pressures in commodity markets are also contributing to a gradual slowdown in the rise in durable goods prices, which were 8.2% higher year-on-year in December, while the increase in semi-durable goods prices (3.8%) remained relatively modest. Jan 22 Jan 21 Jan 20 Jan 19 Jan 18 Jan 17 Jan 16 Dec 22 Euro area Jan 15 Jan 14 Jan 13 Jan 12 Year-on-year inflation, in % Slovenia 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 Source: SURS, Eurostat. Figure 27: Slovenian industrial producer prices, November 2022 Domestic market Non-domestic market 150 Index 2015=100 140 130 120 110 Source: SURS. Jan 22 Jan 21 Jan 20 Jan 19 Jan 18 Jan 17 Jan 16 Jan 15 Jan 14 Jan 13 Jan 12 90 Nov 22 Jan 23 100 The year-on-year growth of Slovenian industrial producer prices continues to gradually weaken and was 19.7% in November, while it was about 2 p.p. higher in the euro area as a whole. In November, price growth on the domestic market was lower year-on-year than in October (22.7%), while it strengthened slightly on foreign markets (16.2%). Amid a monthly price decline of about 7%, the year-on-year increase in energy prices has slowed, but still amounts to almost 80%. However, price increases of intermediate goods continued to slow gradually in the face of subdued economic activity, with prices 21.3% higher year-on-year. After slowing in recent months, growth in prices for capital goods accelerated slightly in November (10.5%). The increase in consumer goods prices continued to strengthen (14%), especially of non-durable goods (14.4%), while price growth in durable goods remained at slightly above 12%. Table 4: Consumer price growth, in % I 22-XII 22/ I 21-XII 21 XII 22/XI 22 XII 22/XII 21 4.9 8.8 0.2 10.3 4.0 12.5 1.7 18.9 19.1 23.1 -3.6 15.9 Services 1.5 5.0 0.8 7.7 Other XII 21/XII 20 Total Food Fuels and energy 4.4 6.3 0.3 7.5 Core inflation - excluding food and energy 3.1 5.8 0.5 7.4 Core inflation - trimmed mean2 3.6 8.3 0.6 9.5 1 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1 Clothing, footwear, furniture, passenger cars, alcoholic beverages, tobacco, etc.; 2 An approach that excludes the share of extreme price changes in each month. 22 Current Economic Trends Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 1/2023 Financial markets Figure 28: Growth in loans to domestic non-banking sectors, October 2022 Consumer loans Lending for house purchase Enterprises and NFIs Total 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 Jan 22 Jan 21 Jan 20 Jan 19 Jan 18 Jan 17 Jan 16 Jan 15 Jan 14 Jan 13 Jan 12 -40 Nov 22 Year-on-year growth, in % 30 Source: BoS. Figure 29: Government bonds, Q4 2022 Austria Portugal 8 Ireland Slovenia Italy Spain Germany 7 Yields to maturity, in % 6 5 4 3 2 1 After slowing in the previous two months, the year-onyear growth in the volume of bank loans to domestic non-banking sectors increased slightly in November, to 11.1%. The increase was due to stronger growth in corporate and NFI loans, mainly due to the low base. The volume of these loans increased by around EUR 50 million, which is less than one-third of the average monthly increase over the 11-month period. Year-on-year growth in household loans remained around 8% in November. Growth in domestic non-banking sector deposits was slightly below 8% in recent months, while deposits of non-financial corporations are still growing at a faster rate. After having largely declined since August last year, the volume of household deposits rose slightly in November. In our view, this was partly due to government measures such as the energy allowance for the poorest households, the dearness allowance for families with children and the allowance for pensioners. The normalisation of monetary policy in recent months has led to an increase in both active and passive interest rates. The increase in the latter was much less pronounced in Slovenia, both in terms of lending rates and in comparison with the euro area as a whole. The quality of banks’ assets remains solid and the share of non-performing loans is slightly above 1%. Yields to maturity of euro area government bonds increased again in the last quarter of 2022. This was still mainly due to the high inflation in the euro area and the associated acceleration of monetary policy normalisation. The yield to maturity of the Slovenian government bond was 3.38% in the fourth quarter of last year, the highest level since 2014 and more than 300 basis points higher than in the same period of 2021. The spread to the German bond was 125 basis points, which is 75 basis points higher than a year ago. 0 Jan 22 Jan 21 Jan 20 Jan 19 Jan 18 Jan 17 Jan 16 Jan 15 Jan 14 Jan 13 -2 Dec 22 Jan 23 -1 Source: Bloomberg. Table 5: Financial market indicators Nominal amounts, EUR million Nominal loan growth, % Domestic bank loans to non-banking sector and household savings 30. XI 21 31. XII 21 30. XI 22 30. XI 22/31. X 22 Loans total 23,886.0 23,989.4 26,527.6 0.4 11.1 10,951.1 10,944.6 12,716.7 0.4 16.1 -2.4 Enterprises and NFI 30. XI 22/30. XI 21 Government 1,420.7 1,488.4 1,386.2 0.7 Households 11,514.1 11,556.4 12,424.7 0.3 7.9 2,599.5 2,590.7 2,617.6 0.2 0.7 10.4 Consumer credits Lending for house purchase 7,429.3 7,479.0 8,202.5 0.3 Other lending 1,485.3 1,486.7 1,604.7 0.3 8.0 24,230.2 24,469.9 25,714.5 0.6 6.1 20,939.8 21,230.8 22,888.5 0.5 9.3 3,290.4 3,239.1 2,826.1 1.4 -14.1 Bank deposits total Overnight deposits Term deposits Government bank deposits, total Deposits of non-financial corporations, total 486.1 725.3 798.1 -0.2 64.2 8,519.4 9,030.5 9,498.4 0.7 11.5 Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BoS; calculations by IMAD. Note: NFI – Non-monetary Financial Institutions. Current Economic Trends Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 1/2023 23 Balance of payments Figure 30: Current account of the balance of payments, November 2022 Trade in goods Primary income Current account 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 -1000 -2000 -3000 Jan 22 Nov 22 Jan 21 Jan 20 Jan 19 Jan 18 Jan 17 Jan 16 Jan 15 Jan 14 Jan 13 -4000 Jan 12 12-month cumulatives, in EUR million 5000 The current account of the balance of payments in the first 11 months of 2022 recorded a deficit of EUR 217.9 million, compared to a surplus of EUR 2.2 billion in the same period of 2021. With imports growing faster than exports, the significant reduction in the current account balance was mainly due to goods trade balance, which turned from a surplus to a deficit at the end of 2021. The services surplus increased, especially in trade in travel, as receipts from foreign tourists who visited Slovenia were significantly higher year-on-year (by EUR 1.2 billion) than expenditure of Slovenian tourists abroad (by EUR 0.5 billion). Trade in transport services also contributed to the growth of the surplus in services trade. Net outflows of primary and secondary income were higher year-on-year. The primary income deficit was higher mainly because more customs duties were paid into the EU budget, while subsidies received from the EU budget were also lower. The higher secondary income deficit arose from higher private sector transfers abroad. Trade in services Secondary income Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. Table 6: Balance of payments I-XI 2022, in EUR million Inflows Outflows Balance Balance, I-XI 2021 Current account 51,925.3 52,143.1 -217.9 2,193.7 39,118.2 41,221.3 -2,103.1 1,132.9 Services 9,977.2 6,759.6 3,217.6 2,246.4 Primary income 1,734.4 2,584.5 -850.1 -724.4 Secondary income 1,095.5 1,577.8 -482.3 -461.2 Capital account 3,598.6 3,868.6 -270.0 111.4 Financial account 6,386.2 5,877.6 -508.6 2,349.6 Goods Direct investment 1,876.3 810.5 -1,065.8 -257.1 Portfolio investment 1,537.8 1,084.4 -453.4 2,471.7 Other investment 3,044.2 3,884.2 840.0 -639.8 0.0 -20.7 -20.7 44.5 Statistcal error Source: BoS. Note: The methodology of the Slovenian Balance of Payments and International Investment Position statistics follows the recommendations in the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual published by the International Monetary Fund. On the current and capital accounts, the term “inflows” means total receipts and the term “outflows” means total expenditures; “balance” is the difference between inflows and outflows. On the financial account, “outflows” mean assets, while “inflows” mean liabilities abroad; “balance” is the difference between outflows and inflows. In financial inflows and outflows, the increase is recorded with a plus sign and the decrease with a minus sign. 24 Current Economic Trends Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 1/2023 Public finance Figure 31: Expenditure to mitigate the consequences of the COVID-19 epidemic 2020 2021 As expected, the deficit of the consolidated balance of public finances16 widened at the end of 2022, but in the first 11 months it was significantly lower than in the same period of 2021. In the first 11 months of 2022, the deficit was EUR 0.7 billion (EUR 0.4 billion in November), compared to EUR 2.2 billion in the same period of 2021. The lower deficit was strongly influenced by lower expenditure on measures to mitigate the consequences of the epidemic, the amount of which was EUR 1.9 billion lower year-on-year. At the same time, the scope of measures to cushion the impact of the surge in energy prices increased. According to the Fiscal Council’s estimate, the two sets of measures accounted for EUR 0.9 billion in the first 11 months of 2022.17 Revenue of the consolidated general government budgetary accounts was 9.9% higher year-on-year in the first 11 months of 2022. Compared to the same period of 2021 (14.2%), revenue growth moderated, reflecting lower growth in economic activity, the reduction of some tax burdens (VAT and excise duty on energy and personal income tax) and the absence of the one-off inflows from the sale of concessions that took place in 2021. In the first 11 months of 2022, expenditure was 2.1% higher year-on-year. This is a much smaller increase than in the same period of 2021 (10.3%), reflecting lower expenditure on civil servants’ wages and subsidies for businesses and a slowdown in the growth of transfers to individuals and households related to measures to mitigate the consequences of the COVID-19 epidemic. The driver of expenditure growth was investment, which saw a 31.5% increase. 2022 1000 900 800 In EUR million 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Q1 Source: MF, FS. Q2 Q3 Q4 16 17 The consolidated balance of public financing on a cash basis. Estimate of measures on revenues and expenditures of the state budget, Fiscal Council, Monthly information, December 2022. Figure 32: EU budget receipts, November 2022 Total receipts (January–November 2021) Expected reimbursements in the revised budget 2022 Total receipts (January–November 2022) Common Agricultural Policy Structural Funds Cohesion Fund Receipts from centralised funds and other Other receipts (RRP) 0 100 Source: MF. 200 300 400 In EUR million 500 600 Slovenia’s net budgetary position against the EU budget was positive in the first 11 months of 2022 (at EUR 158.0 million). In this period, Slovenia received EUR 812.4 million from the EU budget (68.3% of receipts envisaged in the state budget for 2022) and paid EUR 654.4 million into it (91.6% of planned payments). The bulk of receipts were resources from structural funds (45.3% of all reimbursements to the state budget) and resources for the implementation of the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policy (29.1%). The share of resources from the EU Cohesion Fund was significantly smaller (9.3%). The second instalment of the advance payment for the implementation of RRP was paid into the state budget from the Recovery and Resilience Facility. According to SVRK data, by the end of November 2022, Slovenia had absorbed (payments to beneficiaries) 73% of the funds available under the 2014–2020 financial perspective (including React-EU). Current Economic Trends Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 1/2023 25 Table 7: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure on a cash basis I-XI 2021 Category REVENUES TOTAL Tax revenues1 I-XI 2022 Y-o-y growth, in % EUR m 19,289.2 14.2 21,199.9 9,856.6 16.6 11,086.6 Personal income tax 2,554.7 14.9 2,638.1 Corporate income tax 1,026.8 47.7 1,445.6 Taxes on immovable property I-XI 2021 Y-o-y growth, in % EUR m 238.6 7.2 254.2 Value added tax 3,812.8 16.9 4,350.7 Excise duties 1,349.2 7.8 1,367.1 Category 9.9 EXPENDITURE TOTAL Salaries, wages and other 12.5 personnel expenditures2 3.3 Expenditure on goods and services 40.8 Interest payments 6.6 Reserves I-XI 2022 EUR m Y-o-y growth, in % 10.3 21,949.6 2.1 17.1 4,989.1 -5.9 2,819.9 9.9 3,070.1 8.9 719.1 -6.0 648.5 -9.8 Y-o-y growth, in % EUR m 21,490.8 5,299.6 284.5 37.7 483.6 70.0 8,449.1 11.9 8,512.6 0.8 1.3 Other current transfers 1,894.6 -16.8 1,663.5 -12.2 1,466.0 31.6 1,927.8 31.5 558.0 16.2 654.4 17.3 14.1 Transfers to individuals and households Social security contributions 7,168.0 8.7 7,662.0 6.9 Investment expenditure Non-tax revenues 1,211.0 17.0 1,279.2 5.6 Payments to the EU budget Receipts from the EU budget 774.4 24.1 816.5 Other 279.2 50.1 355.7 5.4 GENERAL GOVERNMENT BALANCE 27.4 PRIMARY BALANCE -2,201.6 -749.6 -1,485.9 -151.7 Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1 Unlike tax revenues in the consolidated balance of public finance. 2 Labour costs include social contributions by the employer. statistical appendix Statistical Appendix Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 1/2023 Main indicators GDP (real growth rates, in %) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 29 2024 Autumn Forecast 2022 3.2 4.8 4.5 3.5 -4.3 8.2 5.0 1.4 2.6 GDP in EUR million (current prices) 40,443 43,011 45,876 48,533 47,021 52,208 57,921 61,951 65,311 GDP per capita in EUR (current prices) 19,589 20,820 22,142 23,233 22,361 24,770 27,432 29,275 30,792 GDP per capita (PPS)1 23,600 25,100 26,400 27,700 26,500 29,100 84 86 87 88 89 90 11.2 9.5 8.2 7.7 8.7 7.6 5.8 5.5 5.3 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 8.0 6.6 5.1 4.5 5.0 4.7 4.2 4.1 3.9 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 1.3 1.8 1.3 1.0 -3.7 6.8 1.9 0.7 2.0 -0.1 1.4 1.7 1.6 -0.1 1.9 8.9 6.0 2.9 0.5 1.7 1.4 1.8 -1.1 4.9 9.8 3.9 2.2 6.2 11.1 6.2 4.5 -8.6 14.5 5.0 2.5 4.7 Exports of goods 5.7 11.0 5.7 4.5 -5.5 13.4 1.4 1.3 3.7 Exports of services 8.0 11.2 7.7 4.6 -20.0 19.3 20.2 7.2 8.6 6.3 10.7 7.1 4.7 -9.6 17.6 6.5 2.2 3.8 Imports of goods 6.6 10.7 7.4 5.0 -8.6 17.2 5.0 1.6 3.5 Imports of services 4.7 10.5 5.4 3.0 -15.0 19.5 15.0 6.1 5.9 1,932 2,674 2,731 2,884 3,552 1,985 -312 -324 64 4.8 6.2 6.0 5.9 7.6 3.8 -0.5 -0.5 0.1 44,325 43,231 42,139 44,277 47,792 50,477 109.6 100.5 91.9 91.2 101.6 96.7 1.107 1.129 1.181 1.120 1.141 1.184 1.058 1.022 1.022 4.4 1.9 3.5 5.3 -6.9 9.5 5.4 0.3 1.9 54.0 52.5 52.0 52.4 50.1 51.1 53.9 53.5 53.2 2.4 0.4 2.9 1.8 4.1 5.8 1.4 1.7 1.9 19.0 18.5 18.2 18.3 20.6 20.6 19.1 19.5 19.4 -3.6 10.2 10.2 5.1 -7.9 13.7 6.5 2.5 2.0 17.4 18.3 19.3 19.6 18.9 20.3 22.3 22.1 21.8 GDP per capita (PPS EU27=100)1 Rate of registered unemployment Inflation2, year average Inflation2, end of the year INTERNATIONAL TRADE Exports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) Imports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) Current account balance, in EUR million As a per cent share relative to GDP Gross external debt, in EUR million As a per cent share relative to GDP Ratio of USD to EUR DOMESTIC DEMAND Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) As a % of GDP Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) As a % of GDP Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) As a % of GDP Source: SURS, Bank of Slovenia, Eurostat, IMAD recalculations and forecasts (Autumn forecast, September 2022). Notes: 1 Measured in purchasing power standard. 2 Consumer price index. 3 Balance of payments statistics (exports FOB, imports FOB); the calculation of real growth rates excludes the impact of exchange rate changes and price fluctuations on foreign markets. 30 Statistical Appendix Production Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 1/2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2020 2020 2021 3.1 -5.2 10.2 -2.9 1.4 3.3 25.5 6.2 7.9 6.0 2.7 2.0 2.1 -3.4 -2.1 -6.6 8.5 7.6 0.1 -2.7 -30.7 10.8 27.2 5.5 22.8 26.3 3.5 -5.0 11.8 -2.7 1.6 4.3 28.8 8.1 8.4 6.9 5.7 4.8 2.1 -0.8 -9.1 -5.3 -6.8 -2.1 -8.1 -5.3 -9.3 0.8 -6.7 -30.5 -31.0 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q3 Q2 11 2021 12 1 2 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D B Mining and quarrying C Manufacturing D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 4.0 -2.5 -2.4 4.5 -14.7 4.8 4.7 -1.5 -2.2 -1.0 -3.9 -12.6 -6.2 CONSTRUCTION2, real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total 3.4 -0.7 -0.5 2.7 6.1 -0.5 11.5 1.1 -11.0 21.8 25.2 29.1 17.3 -0.8 -1.6 -7.3 -0.1 -0.6 14.4 2.8 23.9 34.8 36.0 17.5 -16.1 34.6 53.8 58.5 41.1 18.6 9.5 52.4 4.4 2.7 5.9 4.8 9.6 6.1 14.3 8.0 -2.4 15.7 9.6 2.4 26.7 -1.0 3.0 -8.6 2.2 -11.0 12.8 -6.7 -9.2 -3.5 22.5 13.8 18.7 19.9 19.3 5.2 -8.0 -9.0 -15.8 -7.1 Transportation and storage 3.2 -8.0 14.3 -6.7 1.7 5.7 28.4 12.5 12.5 11.6 11.9 7.1 4.0 8.8 -8.9 0.9 Information and communication activities 1.0 -0.2 7.6 2.4 0.6 2.1 11.6 6.6 9.9 6.0 15.6 9.0 0.3 -1.5 -4.4 5.4 Professional, scientific and technical activities 5.8 -3.0 10.6 -0.2 -0.5 8.1 23.1 3.4 9.1 9.2 10.7 9.7 0.4 1.9 -0.3 1.4 Administrative and support service activities -5.9 -24.1 13.1 -23.2 -21.7 -7.9 14.5 23.7 22.3 17.2 16.7 -2.3 -17.5 -21.9 -16.1 -14.8 2.5 -7.4 11.6 -2.7 -7.6 3.5 18.2 5.3 19.7 14.3 12.7 13.1 -9.2 -7.0 -12.5 -3.9 Real turnover in retail trade 3.4 -8.9 18.9 -6.3 -12.0 3.6 17.5 13.8 40.5 26.9 26.0 26.1 -15.2 -10.4 -14.1 -1.0 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles 3.8 -13.9 8.1 3.8 -16.6 8.9 24.7 -8.2 9.3 -8.4 -7.2 -3.2 -19.7 -23.2 -19.2 -10.0 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade 1.3 -3.6 7.5 -2.1 -0.7 1.4 16.3 4.0 8.9 13.9 10.1 7.7 -0.5 0.5 -41.7 22.2 -13.5 -72.8 -86.3 118.6 14.9 283.2 679.7 180.0 4.2 -2.5 32.8 10.4 172.1 -42.8 -82.4 126.7 78.8 1.7 -70.5 42.9 -65.7 -88.4 -89.0 103.3 81.8 332.9 7.6 -37.1 20.8 -12.9 -62.5 -60.0 Buildings Civil engineering MARKET SERVICES, year-on-year real growth rates, % Services, total DISTRIBUTIVE TRADES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover 1.8 -8.4 -3.5 -87.9 -91.1 -91.9 -89.4 -50.3 -81.1 -86.1 -86.9 -87.7 78.8 394.5 61.2 -92.0 -93.9 -94.7 -90.9 19.5 153.2 208.2 103.4 19.4 -70.6 -74.8 -71.8 -66.2 143.4 148.3 119.9 134.7 154.1 192.6 151.6 185.1 221.1 47.7 44.4 38.0 37.2 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, % Total, overnight stays Domestic tourists, overnight stays Foreign tourists, overnight stays Accommodation and food service activities 49.2 -15.0 263.8 690.2 AGRICULTURE Purchase of agricultural products, in EUR m 553.7 535.5 601.4 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values*) Sentiment indicator 6.0 -11.8 2.4 -8.6 -9.2 -3.7 4.0 5.8 3.7 4.4 2.3 -2.2 -12.8 -9.5 -6.8 -3.6 0 -9 8 -3 1 6 10 10 7 8 1 -3 -1 1 5 4 in construction 11 -5 18 -3 -1 8 18 20 24 26 22 16 -4 0 3 8 in services 21 -10 8 -10 -10 -3 8 14 15 15 19 17 -17 -11 -7 -2 in retail trade 19 1 5 11 -6 -16 17 13 6 16 26 20 -10 -9 -22 -17 -10 -26 -22 -24 -30 -24 -20 -20 0 -26 -31 -39 -33 -30 -29 -21 Confidence indicator in manufacturing consumer confidence indicator Source: SURS. Notes: 1Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. *Seasonally adjusted data. Statistical Appendix Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 1/2023 2021 2022 3 4 5 6 12 1 14.5 34.9 25.9 17.5 3.8 9.8 5.6 0.7 8.3 15.9 14.9 0.0 3.8 0.1 3.7 4.3 1.0 4.1 1.1 -3.3 - - 7.4 -20.7 -3.4 15.9 -19.1 -30.0 -41.0 -6.5 -0.7 58.5 46.1 24.0 18.5 26.2 4.1 -7.2 -5.4 39.2 40.4 -33.1 - - 16.2 39.5 29.3 19.7 5.6 11.9 7.7 1.2 9.4 16.0 12.1 3.2 5.9 3.2 6.6 7.2 3.2 7.7 3.9 0.9 - - -5.0 -2.2 -5.9 -7.8 -12.8 -5.4 -9.7 -3.1 -2.5 7.7 34.7 -34.6 -20.8 -36.0 -28.1 -27.0 -22.5 -35.7 -34.4 -42.0 - - 6.4 10.6 5.4 18.7 -0.4 0.4 3.2 -8.9 -13.7 -9.7 15.2 32.2 18.6 15.0 30.2 29.8 29.9 31.8 26.1 54.6 - - 49.3 40.5 27.2 41.0 27.6 3.2 20.6 -14.3 -17.3 -16.7 15.1 54.4 34.7 57.7 55.3 48.4 37.0 95.9 51.8 104.1 - - 22.3 3.1 5.1 35.1 9.7 -3.5 16.8 3.4 -8.6 0.7 24.0 18.8 8.0 11.2 21.0 -1.1 8.5 11.4 -8.9 14.4 - - 13.5 28.3 22.8 17.8 10.9 16.6 14.0 17.2 17.9 20.9 25.7 15.3 19.3 21.4 20.5 16.5 4.2 6.7 4.9 3.3 - - 25.3 40.3 26.9 20.3 10.7 15.9 11.4 12.2 13.3 12.0 18.2 9.6 8.5 10.5 14.0 11.2 3.7 10.5 7.4 0.1 - - 5.6 11.5 13.6 9.9 3.6 11.5 5.2 8.5 9.6 11.3 9.4 -1.0 9.5 14.0 10.9 21.5 6.9 12.0 8.3 5.6 - - 22.5 32.3 24.7 14.6 -2.8 2.1 10.7 7.3 11.0 8.9 14.3 7.7 6.6 8.5 14.2 9.5 7.9 15.4 6.9 6.7 - - 9.1 15.2 14.5 13.8 22.4 21.8 26.8 27.3 13.5 26.3 18.9 12.4 20.0 20.5 20.7 10.1 -4.3 -4.5 1.8 -0.2 - - 27.7 33.3 15.5 9.3 -0.8 8.9 8.4 11.6 23.7 24.5 21.8 12.7 10.3 12.4 15.1 10.6 9.8 17.2 12.7 4.0 - - 28.2 23.2 15.6 14.5 8.4 14.4 19.1 32.8 42.5 46.2 32.7 21.1 27.3 28.3 26.5 23.4 21.9 32.4 24.3 7.2 - - 75.0 113.5 16.5 -4.3 -18.3 -2.0 -1.8 -7.3 17.3 22.6 1.0 -6.1 -16.1 -9.4 -3.1 -9.3 -5.7 -2.2 -1.5 -1.6 - - 14.9 15.0 11.2 -0.4 8.2 4.6 3.7 13.7 9.5 21.4 13.4 9.0 8.6 13.7 8.0 4.9 10.3 8.1 3.1 - - -58.2 787.2 706.9 66.6 10.0 18.7 15.4 118.7 745.3 995.0 804.7 685.0 599.8 730.4 257.8 94.9 17.1 1.9 -9.5 -15.1 -9.9 - -54.3 6626.2 762.7 71.1 -11.9 -14.6 26.4 -45.7 -51.7 -54.5 -55.6 -42.7 - -61.6 262.1 611.2 57.6 55.7 87.6 117.2 215.8 516.4 616.7 997.0 596.6 555.2 1172.0 539.8 244.9 91.2 52.3 38.8 61.3 64.9 - -21.6 171.4 49.5 25.7 18.2 21.0 19.3 81.1 214.4 256.6 220.2 190.1 215.4 183.6 107.8 67.5 24.3 19.2 14.5 19.3 23.6 7 31 8 9 10 -19.7 11 2 3 4 5 6 88.1 909.9 1289.3 664.9 761.4 643.1 466.0 122.4 7 8 9 10 11 12 - 44.8 42.6 46.7 45.5 56.2 44.6 53.3 72.7 59.8 60.1 48.3 46.2 57.1 57.8 64.0 63.3 81.0 62.3 77.8 90.8 - - -0.8 -0.9 5.4 7.5 5.9 6.4 5.2 3.2 3.1 4.7 5.4 6.5 1.2 3.9 2.5 0.4 -1.3 -0.4 -5.0 -5.3 -1.7 0.8 10 8 11 10 11 11 8 4 6 10 9 10 4 4 1 -1 -1 -1 -8 -9 -5 -3 14 16 19 20 18 19 24 24 21 27 27 26 26 22 25 18 16 17 14 19 23 24 -1 -1 9 15 12 14 16 18 16 12 14 16 14 19 19 18 16 20 15 14 20 20 -10 6 18 26 14 19 7 1 5 13 16 15 16 28 27 23 25 21 15 13 17 23 -23 -25 -18 -17 -18 -20 -21 -24 -27 -24 -24 -21 -33 -28 -31 -34 -39 -39 -40 -38 -37 -31 32 Statistical Appendix Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 1/2023 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 Labour market 2019 2020 2021 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 968.4 973.9 974.6 971.2 975.5 973.6 972.5 972.2 980.0 976.9 976.2 976.5 978.5 973.3 973.9 973.7 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)1 894.2 888.9 900.3 884.1 890.5 886.2 897.3 903.5 914.0 912.5 920.2 923.0 891.2 881.8 885.8 891.1 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 24.9 26.4 25.7 Q3 26.4 Q4 26.3 Q1 25.7 Q2 25.8 Q3 25.7 Q4 25.6 Q1 24.9 Q2 24.9 Q3 24.9 12 26.2 1 25.6 2 3 25.6 25.8 In industry, construction 291.7 288.5 294.1 286.0 288.9 288.4 293.1 295.4 299.6 300.1 303.6 305.9 290.9 286.1 288.3 290.8 - in manufacturing 207.9 202.8 205.6 200.1 202.5 202.8 205.4 205.9 208.4 209.1 210.5 210.6 204.1 201.7 202.7 203.9 - in construction In services - in public administration - in education, health-services and social work 63.9 64.9 67.8 577.6 574.0 580.4 49.0 49.3 49.6 65.1 65.6 65.1 67.0 68.7 70.2 70.2 72.2 74.2 571.7 575.3 572.1 578.4 582.3 588.8 587.6 591.8 592.2 49.4 49.6 49.3 49.7 49.6 49.8 49.4 49.5 49.5 66.1 65.1 66.3 574.1 570.1 571.9 574.5 49.6 64.0 49.1 49.3 49.4 137.8 141.5 146.1 141.0 143.8 144.4 146.0 145.5 148.4 148.9 149.7 148.8 143.9 143.4 144.5 145.4 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 801.9 794.6 804.4 790.0 795.6 791.6 801.9 807.3 817.0 815.8 822.8 824.8 796.2 787.4 791.2 796.1 In enterprises and organisations 749.2 744.8 756.2 739.9 746.7 744.6 753.7 758.3 768.3 768.3 774.4 776.0 748.3 740.8 744.3 748.8 By those self-employed 52.7 49.8 48.2 50.1 48.9 46.9 48.2 49.0 48.7 47.5 48.4 48.8 47.9 46.6 46.8 47.3 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 92.3 94.3 95.8 94.1 94.9 94.7 95.5 96.2 97.0 96.7 97.4 98.2 95.0 94.4 94.7 94.9 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 74.2 85.0 74.3 87.1 85.0 87.4 75.2 68.7 66.0 64.4 55.9 53.4 87.3 91.5 88.1 82.6 Female 37.5 42.6 37.9 44.1 43.0 44.1 38.6 35.4 33.5 32.1 28.3 27.4 43.8 45.7 44.2 42.3 By age: 15 to 29 14.1 17.2 14.2 17.1 18.0 17.7 14.1 12.0 12.8 11.9 10.0 9.5 18.3 18.9 17.8 16.4 Aged over 50 29.7 31.0 28.2 31.3 30.3 31.6 28.7 27.1 25.5 25.2 22.4 21.2 30.9 32.6 31.7 30.4 Primary education or less 23.4 26.4 23.5 26.6 26.1 27.5 23.7 21.6 21.1 20.9 17.7 16.7 27.3 28.9 27.8 25.9 For more than 1 year 38.1 38.0 40.5 38.1 38.9 41.5 41.9 40.2 38.3 35.5 31.0 27.9 39.4 41.3 41.3 41.9 Those receiving benefits 19.3 25.9 18.9 25.6 24.0 25.1 17.6 16.7 16.3 17.8 14.3 14.5 25.2 28.0 25.4 22.0 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 7.7 8.7 7.6 9.0 8.7 9.0 7.7 7.1 6.7 6.6 5.7 5.5 8.9 9.4 9.0 8.5 Male 6.9 8.0 6.9 8.1 7.9 8.2 6.9 6.3 6.1 6.0 5.2 4.9 8.1 8.7 8.3 7.6 Female 8.5 9.6 8.5 10.0 9.7 9.9 8.7 8.0 7.5 7.2 6.4 6.2 9.9 10.3 10.0 9.5 -0.3 1.0 -1.8 -1.9 1.2 -1.5 -3.8 -1.7 -0.1 -1.8 -2.2 -0.6 3.1 4.2 -3.4 -5.4 New unemployed first-job seekers 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 1.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 1.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 Redundancies 5.4 7.4 4.5 6.0 6.4 6.0 3.3 4.1 4.6 5.1 3.4 3.9 7.2 9.9 4.3 4.0 Registered unemployed who found employment 4.7 5.4 5.0 6.5 4.6 6.4 5.7 4.3 3.6 5.1 4.0 3.1 2.9 4.6 6.7 8.0 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.6 2.0 33.1 37.6 41.8 37.7 38.1 38.8 40.7 42.7 44.9 46.7 49.1 50.7 38.4 38.4 38.8 39.1 3.4 3.9 4.3 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE FIXED TERM WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS As % of labour force Sources: SURS, ZPIZ, ESS. Note: 1 In January 2005, SURS adopted a new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figure for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. Statistical Appendix Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 1/2023 2021 33 2022 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 972.6 972.1 972.8 972.6 971.4 972.6 978.5 978.8 982.7 977.3 977.4 975.9 976.4 975.9 976.2 976.6 975.5 977.3 983.2 11 12 893.3 897.0 901.7 901.9 902.1 906.4 911.8 913.4 916.8 909.5 912.6 915.4 918.3 920.1 922.3 922.3 921.6 925.2 930.2 25.8 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.5 24.9 24.9 24.8 24.8 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 291.8 292.7 294.8 295.3 294.9 296.1 298.5 298.5 301.7 298.3 300.3 301.6 303.0 303.3 304.4 306.0 305.3 306.4 308.3 204.8 205.1 206.2 205.8 205.6 206.3 207.9 207.9 209.5 208.3 209.2 209.8 210.3 210.4 210.6 210.6 210.3 210.9 212.2 66.3 66.9 67.7 68.7 68.5 69.0 69.6 69.8 71.3 69.3 70.4 71.0 71.8 72.1 72.8 74.4 74.0 74.4 75.0 575.7 578.4 581.1 580.9 581.4 584.6 587.7 589.3 589.5 586.3 587.4 589.0 590.5 591.8 593.1 591.3 591.3 593.9 597.0 49.6 49.7 49.6 49.6 49.7 49.7 49.9 49.8 49.7 49.3 49.4 49.5 49.5 49.6 49.4 49.5 49.5 49.5 49.6 145.7 146.1 146.2 144.9 144.7 146.8 147.9 148.6 148.8 148.4 148.9 149.3 149.4 149.7 149.8 148.4 148.2 150.0 151.2 798.3 801.5 805.8 805.9 805.9 810.0 815.0 816.4 819.7 813.1 816.0 818.4 821.1 822.6 824.6 824.3 823.4 826.7 831.3 750.6 753.4 757.1 757.0 756.9 761.0 766.0 767.6 771.4 765.9 768.5 770.6 773.0 774.3 775.9 775.5 774.6 777.9 782.3 47.6 48.2 48.8 49.0 49.0 49.0 49.0 48.8 48.3 47.2 47.5 47.8 48.2 48.4 48.7 48.8 48.7 48.8 49.0 95.1 95.4 95.8 96.0 96.2 96.5 96.9 97.0 97.0 96.4 96.6 96.9 97.2 97.4 97.7 98.0 98.2 98.5 98.9 79.3 75.1 71.1 70.7 69.3 66.1 66.7 65.4 66.0 67.8 64.8 60.5 58.1 55.9 53.9 54.3 53.9 52.0 53.0 52.5 53.2 40.8 38.5 36.4 36.5 35.9 33.8 34.1 33.4 33.0 33.5 32.3 30.5 29.4 28.2 27.3 27.9 27.8 26.5 26.9 26.6 26.4 15.3 14.1 12.9 12.4 12.1 11.5 13.1 12.7 12.7 12.7 11.9 11.0 10.5 9.9 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.2 10.9 10.6 10.4 29.6 28.7 27.7 27.7 27.2 26.3 25.9 25.3 25.4 26.3 25.3 24.0 23.1 22.4 21.7 21.6 21.3 20.8 20.4 20.3 20.4 24.9 23.7 22.4 22.0 21.6 21.1 21.0 20.7 21.5 22.3 21.1 19.3 18.4 17.6 17.0 16.8 16.7 16.5 16.5 16.6 17.2 42.3 41.9 41.4 40.8 40.3 39.6 39.3 38.3 37.2 37.0 35.7 33.9 32.4 31.0 29.6 28.6 28.0 27.1 26.5 25.9 25.4 18.9 17.4 16.4 17.1 16.6 16.4 15.9 15.9 17.2 19.6 17.5 16.2 14.7 14.2 13.9 14.6 14.8 14.2 13.0 14.1 8.5 7.7 7.3 7.3 7.1 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.9 6.6 6.2 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.3 7.3 6.9 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.1 6.4 6.1 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.8 9.2 8.7 8.2 8.3 8.1 7.7 7.7 7.5 7.4 7.6 7.3 6.9 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.0 6.0 -3.4 -4.1 -4.1 -0.4 -1.4 -3.2 0.5 -1.3 0.6 1.9 -3.1 -4.2 -2.5 -2.2 -2.0 0.5 -0.4 -1.9 0.9 -0.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.7 2.6 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.8 2.6 0.7 0.4 3.5 3.3 3.1 5.1 3.4 3.8 4.1 4.2 5.4 8.0 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.3 3.4 4.5 3.4 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.5 5.6 5.9 5.7 4.1 3.3 5.7 4.1 3.8 2.9 4.6 5.0 5.8 4.4 3.9 3.6 2.5 2.3 4.6 3.6 3.2 2.5 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.8 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.3 1.9 40.0 40.8 41.4 42.0 42.6 43.6 44.2 45.0 45.7 46.1 46.4 47.6 48.3 49.2 49.7 50.2 50.7 51.2 51.7 51.7 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.3 34 Statistical Appendix Wages Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 1/2023 in EUR 2021 Q3 22 Oct 22 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, nominal in € 2019 2020 2021 2020 Q3 2021 Q4 Q1 Q2 2022 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 y-o-y growth rates, % TOTAL 1,970 1,999 2,024 4.3 5.8 6.1 4.8 6.7 10.6 5.7 5.4 2.9 -1.2 0.8 5.0 Private sector activities (A–N; R–S) 1,852 1,939 1,947 3.6 3.8 5.8 3.9 3.2 6.1 3.9 5.9 6.9 4.0 6.6 6.7 Public service activities (OPQ) 2,335 2,190 2,267 6.5 10.5 6.8 6.3 16.0 20.9 10.3 4.2 -6.8 -12.5 -11.8 0.5 Industry (B–E) 1,918 2,024 2,000 3.4 3.4 5.7 3.1 2.7 4.2 5.3 6.5 6.9 4.4 6.9 7.6 Trad. market services (GHI) 1,679 1,759 1,797 3.4 2.8 6.1 3.8 1.9 6.8 3.4 5.3 7.9 4.5 7.5 6.6 Other market services (J–N; R–S) 2,092 2,164 2,176 5.1 5.0 5.7 5.1 4.3 7.3 3.3 5.5 6.6 3.4 5.7 5.6 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 1,546 1,699 1,752 3.0 4.6 3.8 3.5 2.4 1.8 0.9 4.9 7.4 6.8 10.1 10.0 B Mining and quarrying 2,415 2,569 2,545 0.3 5.1 2.3 2.8 3.7 -3.2 -2.9 6.1 9.1 0.4 3.4 5.7 C Manufacturing 1,882 1,984 1,964 3.5 3.2 6.2 3.0 2.7 4.6 6.1 7.0 7.2 4.8 6.9 7.4 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 2,776 2,987 2,864 4.3 4.0 1.5 3.2 1.5 -0.7 0.6 2.3 3.6 0.1 8.5 11.2 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 1,814 1,900 1,890 2.7 4.2 4.3 3.6 3.0 4.1 2.9 4.6 5.4 4.1 7.4 6.5 F Construction 1,488 1,591 1,620 2.2 5.5 7.1 5.2 5.7 8.9 3.6 7.5 7.9 6.8 7.1 6.5 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 1,767 1,830 1,873 3.9 4.2 5.4 4.8 3.9 5.9 3.0 5.2 7.1 4.8 7.7 5.7 H Transportation and storage 1,643 1,768 1,810 1.6 -0.1 5.0 1.0 -2.4 2.7 2.7 4.6 9.6 7.0 8.6 8.9 I Accommodation and food service activities 1,330 1,471 1,474 4.8 -3.8 12.7 2.2 -9.5 4.9 12.2 9.7 20.4 12.4 12.7 7.3 J Information and communication 2,597 2,719 2,699 5.7 4.5 4.7 4.1 3.6 4.5 3.4 5.6 5.4 4.9 6.0 5.9 K Financial and insurance activities 2,790 2,782 2,818 4.6 2.5 5.0 2.3 0.8 5.7 2.9 4.2 7.1 3.1 8.9 5.1 L Real estate activities 1,737 1,803 1,844 5.2 4.2 3.7 4.5 1.3 4.0 0.1 3.6 6.4 3.9 5.8 5.4 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 2,176 2,252 2,247 4.6 4.0 6.3 4.0 3.5 7.2 4.0 6.1 7.5 4.0 4.7 4.9 N Administrative and support service activities 1,333 1,432 1,444 5.1 4.7 5.9 3.9 4.1 5.2 3.0 6.6 8.2 5.8 8.1 8.6 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 2,514 2,408 2,461 8.9 7.4 6.9 3.6 9.0 16.0 10.3 2.9 -1.3 -9.8 -10.6 1.9 P Education 2,125 1,997 2,089 6.1 6.2 8.9 8.3 6.5 10.1 16.1 8.2 1.5 -5.7 -10.7 -5.7 Q Human health and social work activities 2,433 2,243 2,323 5.1 17.7 4.8 6.6 31.4 36.2 5.7 1.2 -17.1 -20.0 -13.8 6.6 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 1,945 1,961 2,016 4.3 0.0 9.4 4.5 -1.1 7.5 11.7 7.3 10.5 3.0 2.4 0.5 S Other service activities 1,541 1,608 1,653 4.7 4.5 3.4 3.7 3.0 8.9 -1.9 3.6 2.7 1.1 5.6 5.9 Source: SURS, calculations by IMAD. Statistical Appendix Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 1/2023 2021 2 3 4 5 6 7 35 2022 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 8.1 14.3 3.0 6.1 7.7 7.1 4.8 4.1 3.6 2.8 2.1 -2.7 -1.0 -0.1 0.4 -0.9 2.8 3.2 5.7 6.1 7.3 3.6 11.8 2.1 2.4 7.1 6.1 5.9 5.7 5.4 8.0 7.0 3.1 3.8 5.1 5.7 7.7 6.5 5.7 7.0 7.2 7.7 18.9 19.4 5.5 15.9 9.1 9.8 2.4 0.2 -0.9 -10.1 -9.0 -14.4 -11.3 -11.8 -11.0 -18.3 -5.5 -3.0 2.0 3.0 6.1 2.0 9.3 3.0 4.0 8.5 7.0 6.4 6.1 3.8 7.6 8.9 2.6 4.6 5.9 5.2 8.6 7.0 6.3 7.9 8.5 8.0 4.0 14.2 1.6 1.6 6.5 4.9 5.9 5.3 7.5 9.2 6.4 4.4 3.5 5.7 7.2 7.8 7.4 5.8 6.9 7.3 8.3 4.6 12.1 2.5 1.6 5.6 6.2 4.9 5.3 5.5 7.6 6.3 3.2 3.2 3.8 5.5 6.8 4.9 5.2 6.0 5.7 6.9 2.4 4.6 -0.5 -2.1 5.3 5.7 5.9 3.1 5.5 9.9 6.6 5.9 6.4 8.4 8.8 10.1 11.5 7.4 9.5 13.1 12.0 -7.3 0.2 -6.8 -4.4 2.8 7.5 3.9 7.0 0.2 -2.3 30.1 -5.3 2.1 4.4 -0.4 1.2 9.5 3.3 8.1 5.9 8.6 2.1 10.1 3.3 4.8 10.1 7.5 6.8 6.6 4.1 7.7 9.5 2.9 4.9 6.5 5.6 8.1 7.0 6.6 8.1 7.5 8.0 0.0 0.3 8.7 1.9 -8.0 2.4 3.3 1.2 1.5 7.1 1.7 -0.1 2.5 -1.9 -1.2 20.6 7.0 2.9 4.2 27.6 8.3 3.3 7.5 2.2 0.6 5.8 5.1 4.7 3.9 3.5 8.8 3.6 4.2 3.2 4.9 7.9 7.1 7.3 5.2 7.9 6.5 6.8 6.7 15.5 1.3 1.0 8.4 6.9 8.0 7.6 7.0 11.0 5.7 5.8 6.7 7.7 5.7 8.3 7.2 5.3 7.7 6.5 8.1 3.6 11.7 2.3 1.0 5.6 4.2 5.8 5.5 6.3 7.2 7.4 4.5 3.6 6.3 8.6 7.6 6.9 4.9 5.9 6.3 7.7 1.1 7.7 1.0 1.8 4.9 5.0 5.3 3.4 6.0 15.7 6.5 7.1 5.5 8.4 7.5 9.2 9.3 7.9 9.3 9.5 10.2 -2.9 27.8 2.7 14.0 16.8 10.3 8.8 9.8 22.2 21.6 15.9 11.8 13.8 11.7 15.1 14.5 10.3 6.8 7.2 7.8 7.6 4.9 7.9 2.7 1.7 5.6 5.2 6.2 5.3 3.1 6.1 6.8 7.2 4.0 3.5 4.8 10.6 2.6 6.0 4.2 7.6 7.3 0.7 11.2 3.0 5.7 0.1 5.1 2.2 5.3 5.0 10.5 5.1 1.0 1.2 6.1 11.9 5.1 9.8 6.0 7.0 2.4 6.6 3.7 6.7 0.6 -1.6 1.1 4.3 2.9 3.7 4.0 8.1 6.7 3.0 3.4 5.4 5.8 5.4 6.2 5.2 5.2 5.7 7.5 5.1 12.2 4.5 1.1 6.3 6.3 6.2 5.6 6.0 7.3 8.7 4.9 2.8 4.2 3.5 6.0 4.5 4.6 5.2 4.9 6.2 1.2 8.4 0.7 0.6 7.6 8.3 4.8 6.8 7.6 9.6 7.3 2.4 7.8 7.2 7.8 9.1 7.6 6.7 10.4 8.7 9.2 15.5 15.3 10.6 14.8 5.3 3.1 3.1 2.7 0.1 -2.7 -1.3 -13.2 -9.9 -5.9 -9.0 -20.0 -1.3 0.6 2.8 2.3 6.3 6.2 10.7 7.8 25.4 15.0 21.2 4.8 -1.3 3.7 2.9 -2.2 -7.6 -3.2 -6.3 -5.9 -16.3 -9.4 -13.2 -3.0 0.5 2.2 35.5 31.3 1.8 8.7 6.6 3.9 -0.5 0.0 -6.1 -24.2 -18.8 -20.6 -18.9 -20.4 -16.8 -18.7 -4.4 6.4 6.9 6.5 10.4 0.9 17.9 8.8 7.8 17.7 10.0 7.3 4.7 11.2 14.6 5.7 1.4 6.9 0.8 4.8 3.6 -0.7 0.1 0.0 1.4 0.5 6.8 14.2 -5.1 -5.0 4.0 4.1 3.0 3.7 5.8 3.1 -0.8 -1.7 0.5 4.5 6.0 5.7 5.0 5.4 6.4 5.9 7.7 36 Statistical Appendix Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 1/2023 2020 2021 2022 2020 Prices and indicators of overall competitiveness 2020 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % -1.1 4.9 10.3 -0.7 -0.5 1.9 2.2 4.2 6.0 8.5 10.7 10.1 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 1.0 3.9 18.6 2.0 -0.3 -1.3 -1.0 1.8 5.9 10.8 13.8 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 3.2 2.4 6.0 3.5 3.5 3.6 4.1 1.8 2.8 5.0 Clothing and footwear -5.4 5.9 2.3 -4.5 -4.2 1.2 1.8 3.3 4.4 Housing, water, electricity, gas -0.6 8.6 13.3 -0.3 1.7 8.5 3.6 7.9 Furnishing, household equipm. -0.4 5.7 12.9 -0.2 -0.1 1.7 2.5 Medical, pharmaceutical produ. 4.9 -0.5 7.2 3.8 1.1 2.5 -5.9 12.5 9.3 -6.7 -2.6 0.6 -3.6 1.2 0.9 -3.9 3.4 6.9 Education 0.7 0.5 Catering services 0.6 Miscellaneous goods & services 2021 2022 2 -0.7 -1.0 0.1 18.3 1.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.7 6.4 6.2 3.2 3.8 3.4 3.3 2.0 2.9 2.3 -5.4 0.9 -4.8 -8.8 8.4 13.5 22.0 14.6 -0.6 -1.6 -1.1 7.7 4.7 8.0 10.7 12.2 12.5 -0.4 -0.3 0.2 -0.1 2.7 0.6 4.2 3.0 3.7 5.7 4.9 2.1 0.6 0.5 5.3 9.0 13.0 13.0 16.3 16.9 10.1 -5.9 -4.5 -2.6 -0.8 0.3 0.2 -0.7 -3.5 -4.2 -4.6 -3.8 -0.8 0.6 1.0 0.5 -0.5 -1.7 -3.0 -2.9 -2.2 1.2 4.0 5.9 5.3 6.6 -3.9 -2.9 -3.9 -2.3 1.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.5 1.3 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 6.1 10.8 0.7 0.6 1.3 4.0 5.8 7.1 9.0 9.1 10.2 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.7 -2.1 8.9 0.9 0.5 -0.3 -0.1 -0.4 0.9 2.6 4.1 6.7 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.6 HICP -1.2 5.1 10.8 -0.9 -0.6 2.0 2.3 4.5 6.3 9.0 11.3 10.6 -1.2 -0.9 -1.1 0.1 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) -0.1 3.1 7.4 0.2 -0.2 0.6 1.5 2.5 4.3 5.6 6.3 6.9 -0.1 0.6 -0.4 -0.8 Recreation and culture Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 12 2021 -1.1 Communications Q1 Q4 1 Transport Q4 3 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total -0.2 10.6 -0.1 1.2 3.6 7.5 9.9 15.6 21.7 21.1 -0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0 1.0 10.6 0.9 1.9 4.2 8.0 10.1 17.2 24.8 25.2 1.0 1.3 1.7 2.6 -1.4 10.6 -1.1 0.4 2.9 6.9 9.7 13.9 18.5 17.0 -1.4 -0.4 0.4 1.3 Euro area -1.2 11.6 -0.8 1.3 3.8 7.0 10.5 15.1 20.5 19.3 -1.2 0.4 1.4 2.2 Non-euro area -1.8 8.5 -1.9 -1.5 1.1 6.7 8.0 11.4 14.6 12.6 -1.8 -2.0 -1.8 -0.6 -2.6 25.9 -3.4 1.3 8.6 14.9 24.5 27.5 29.5 24.9 -2.6 -0.8 0.6 4.0 Domestic market Non-domestic market Import price indices INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS1, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate2, nominal 0.8 0.0 1.3 1.2 0.4 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 1.5 1.6 1.5 0.6 Real (deflator HICP) -0.4 -0.7 0.0 -0.5 0.2 -1.3 -1.1 -1.0 -0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 Real (deflator ULC) 3.7 0.1 6.4 4.2 0.1 2.7 -6.5 -8.2 -7.3 1.141 1.184 1.193 1.206 1.206 1.179 1.144 1.123 1.065 1.007 1.217 1.217 1.210 1.190 USD / EUR Sources: SURS, ECB; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1 Source for effective exchange rate series ECB; 2 Harmonised effective exchange rate – a group of 18 EU Member States and 18 euro area countries; an increase in value indicates appreciation of the national currency and vice versa. Statistical Appendix Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 1/2023 2021 4 5 6 7 8 37 2022 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2.1 2.1 1.4 2.0 2.1 2.4 3.0 4.6 4.9 5.8 6.9 5.4 6.9 8.1 10.4 11.0 11.0 10.0 10 9.9 11 10.0 10.3 -0.4 -2.5 -0.9 -1.1 -1.4 -0.4 0.3 1.1 3.9 4.6 6.3 6.9 9.2 10.8 12.5 13.2 13.8 14.4 17.2 19.0 18.6 3.6 3.4 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.0 0.7 2.2 2.4 2.4 3.0 3.1 4.6 5.1 5.3 5.9 6.5 6.8 7.0 5.5 6.0 -0.1 2.0 1.7 4.3 1.8 -0.7 -1.2 5.3 5.9 2.1 5.6 5.5 1.4 2.6 2.0 1.8 2.6 4.2 2.7 1.9 2.3 11.2 11.8 2.5 3.1 3.2 4.4 6.7 8.3 8.6 10.7 13.2 1.3 6.2 10.4 23.9 24.6 25.3 16.2 15.6 14.9 13.3 1.9 2.0 1.3 2.1 3.2 2.3 3.4 5.0 5.7 7.6 8.0 8.5 9.2 10.5 12.3 12.0 11.6 13.0 12.5 12 12.9 1.7 2.7 3.2 2.5 2.9 2.7 3.0 -0.6 -0.5 4.1 4.1 4.4 3.2 2.7 3.2 3.4 3.8 4.0 3.7 6.3 7.2 4.8 5.6 5.5 8.2 9.2 9.6 11.7 14.7 12.5 12.5 12.5 14.1 15.1 16.7 17.2 19.7 16.5 14.5 10.4 10.5 9.3 -2.0 1.2 1.4 -0.4 -0.4 -1.3 -3.5 -3.5 -3.6 -4.4 -3.6 -4.6 -2.7 -5.9 -5.3 -3.7 -4.0 -3.8 -2.2 -1.4 1.2 -2.5 -3.3 -2.8 -2.7 -2.3 -1.6 -0.9 1.2 3.4 4.1 5.4 2.4 6.2 5.9 5.7 4.8 5.2 5.9 6.6 6.2 6.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.4 0.6 0.9 2.5 3.1 3.7 5.2 5.2 6.2 6.1 6.8 7.1 7.3 7.9 9.6 9.5 8.8 9.0 9.6 9.9 9.8 10.8 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.7 -2.1 0.7 1.1 0.8 2.3 2.4 3.1 3.6 4.1 4.7 5.5 5.8 8.9 2.2 2.2 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.7 3.5 4.9 5.1 6.0 7.0 6.0 7.4 8.7 10.8 11.7 11.5 10.6 10.3 10.8 10.8 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.5 2.9 3.1 3.8 4.7 4.5 5.4 5.5 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.7 6.5 7.4 2.4 3.5 4.8 6.2 7.7 8.6 9.2 9.9 10.6 12.3 16.5 17.9 20.4 22.5 22.2 21.1 21.0 21.3 20.6 19.7 3.0 4.6 5.1 6.9 8.2 9.0 9.5 10.1 10.6 12.8 18.4 20.3 23.4 25.7 25.4 24.6 25.3 25.7 25.1 23.2 1.8 2.4 4.6 5.4 7.1 8.2 8.8 9.7 10.6 11.7 14.5 15.4 17.3 19.3 18.9 17.5 16.7 16.8 16 16.2 2.7 2.9 5.7 5.6 7.2 8.3 9.5 10.4 11.6 12.5 16.1 16.7 18.8 21.6 21.2 20.1 19.3 18.4 16.7 16.6 -0.3 1.4 2.2 5.0 7.0 8.1 7.5 8.1 8.5 10.0 11.4 12.9 14.5 14.7 14.5 12.5 11.7 13.7 14.6 15.4 7.0 8.6 10.3 12.8 14.1 17.8 22.5 25.0 25.9 26.4 26.7 29.3 29.2 30.2 29.2 26.6 25.6 22.6 17.7 14.3 0.6 0.5 -0.1 -0.3 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -1 -1.5 -1.2 -1.4 -1.7 -1.4 -1.0 -1.5 -1.5 -1.3 -0.7 -0.1 0.8 0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -1.6 -1.3 -1.4 -0.7 -1.1 -0.6 0.0 -2.3 -1.7 -0.8 1.0 1.0 0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -0.7 1.198 1.215 1.205 1.182 1.177 1.177 1.160 1.141 1.130 1.131 1.134 1.102 1.082 1.058 1.057 1.018 1.013 0.990 0.983 1.020 12 38 Statistical Appendix Balance of payments Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 1/2023 2019 2020 2021 2020 Q3 2021 Q4 Q1 Q2 2022 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020 Q3 11 2021 12 1 2 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BPM6 methodology, EUR m Current account 2,884 3,552 1,985 825 972 944 384 560 98 -239 -170 146 280 182 360 Goods 1,298 2,333 882 692 520 641 339 63 -160 -549 -716 -428 183 64 259 224 163 Exports 31,999 29,622 35,255 7,360 7,991 8,268 8,815 8,473 9,699 10,002 10,951 10,782 2,776 2,395 2,426 2,649 Imports 30,701 27,289 34,373 9,860 10,550 11,667 11,211 6,668 7,471 7,627 8,476 8,410 2,594 2,330 2,167 2,486 2,907 2,057 2,455 580 528 463 570 733 688 592 910 1,092 131 148 135 140 Exports 8,659 6,956 8,447 1,838 1,864 1,594 1,896 2,505 2,452 2,130 2,747 3,281 541 681 461 507 Imports 5,751 4,899 5,992 1,259 1,336 1,131 1,325 1,772 1,764 1,538 1,837 2,190 410 533 326 367 Services Primary income -821 -386 -863 -358 15 17 -428 -149 -303 -148 -221 -385 8 -1 38 9 Receipts 1,749 1,653 1,960 353 481 475 513 428 544 494 487 393 157 196 186 152 Expenditures 2,569 2,039 2,823 712 466 458 941 577 847 642 708 778 148 197 148 143 Secondary income -500 -452 -489 -88 -91 -177 -97 -88 -127 -135 -144 -131 -42 -29 -71 -89 934 994 1,124 219 309 241 325 272 287 283 314 309 102 108 73 77 1,434 1,447 1,614 307 400 418 422 360 414 418 458 441 144 137 144 166 Receipts Expenditures Capital account Financial account Direct investment -222 -258 54 -33 -131 91 -67 45 -14 -70 -109 -73 -3 -112 -25 9 2,068 2,984 2,254 601 894 1,131 371 179 572 -485 -245 156 435 16 336 730 -762 262 -398 -202 504 -18 -735 -171 526 -363 -279 -320 15 446 -95 22 Assets 1,157 708 1,397 -64 566 342 155 349 551 280 317 164 80 303 -28 207 Liabilities 1,919 446 1,795 139 62 360 890 520 25 644 595 484 65 -142 67 185 734 -1,826 3,203 1,315 740 -170 1,630 39 1,704 -1,298 644 -290 516 640 -1,133 484 Portfolio investment Financial derivatives -163 53 30 5 27 2 10 39 -63 -45 59 13 5 -2 Other investment 2,221 4,329 -1,406 -543 -440 1,305 -542 -374 -1,795 1,162 -604 684 -121 -1,120 1,543 235 Assets 3,276 4,832 2,932 -690 205 3,192 253 537 -1,049 335 -1,306 1,777 1,387 27 4 10 0 0 0 2 2,811 4,757 1,422 -790 122 2,345 438 342 351 57 165 13 1 22 -1 Other equity Currency and deposits Loans Insurance, pension schemes, and standardised guarantee schemes Trade credit and advances Other assets Liabilities Other equity Currency and deposits Loans Insurance, pension schemes, and standardised guarantee schemes Trade credit and advances Other liabilities Special drawing rights (SDR) Reserve assets Net errors and omissions -21 10 1,733 927 1,365 8 10 2 0 0 -1 0 0 11 358 -1,292 905 430 1,423 213 -947 1,464 1,066 155 -8 -21 226 -27 186 33 47 49 37 14 -2 5 1 12 3 0 8 -13 -1 -1 2 2 266 0 29 -225 875 67 -142 666 205 100 -96 919 366 11 90 -460 187 -43 -47 254 -23 62 21 42 88 102 -74 -64 -88 -14 54 87 39 1,055 502 4,339 -146 645 1,887 795 911 746 572 1,531 681 456 -186 234 1,152 2 4 -38 0 3 2 -42 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 2 1 0 1,009 800 2,359 116 263 788 909 371 290 526 237 543 109 5 315 180 -149 -410 -17 -325 131 758 -371 -401 -1 -438 781 244 230 -146 -2 794 27 55 21 6 -9 30 27 8 -44 22 -34 22 -3 -3 10 10 62 -137 1,123 20 293 202 268 63 590 438 433 -100 132 -24 -132 130 104 190 215 36 -35 107 4 194 -90 25 115 -29 -13 -20 42 38 0 0 675 0 0 0 0 675 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 37 166 824 26 62 13 7 707 97 77 37 23 15 36 16 -8 -594 -310 214 -192 53 96 55 -425 488 -176 34 83 158 -54 1 497 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR million Export of investment goods 4,067 900 991 917 999 978 1,172 1,086 1,244 1,180 329 325 261 297 Intermediate goods 17,045 15,446 19,633 3,841 3,552 3,797 4,148 4,544 4,848 4,841 5,400 6,096 6,686 6,725 1,454 1,202 1,382 1,445 Consumer goods 12,661 13,928 15,744 1,278 3,430 3,539 3,987 3,987 3,856 3,913 4,199 6,251 6,255 1,201 999 1,255 4,885 964 1,258 1,073 1,221 1,172 1,419 1,376 1,459 1,438 464 416 304 347 Intermediate goods 18,508 16,434 24,076 3,963 4,658 4,732 5,702 6,303 7,338 7,930 9,084 8,944 1,770 1,378 1,346 1,513 Consumer goods 11,183 11,670 12,588 2,871 3,210 2,905 3,209 3,020 3,454 3,725 4,388 4,174 1,082 1,033 901 906 Import of investment goods 4,391 4,008 Sources: BoS, SURS. Note: The methodology of the Slovenian balance of payments and international investment position statistics follows the recommendations in the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual released by the International Monetary Fund. Statistical Appendix Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 1/2023 2021 3 4 5 6 7 360 336 219 184 138 -90 51 104 3,192 2,974 2,901 2,884 2,717 2,833 188 176 626 39 2022 8 9 10 11 12 1 131 177 252 199 86 -49 26 58 3,030 2,875 2,505 3,093 2,926 2,789 2,554 3,067 149 246 185 259 603 573 719 813 438 427 425 474 -30 -1 -52 136 164 167 -16 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 107 -208 128 -229 -138 -64 -47 -60 -122 -96 364 -17 62 32 -251 -7 -279 -262 -262 -294 -160 -234 -268 74 -262 -148 3,253 3,358 3,089 3,046 3,152 3,804 3,406 3,696 3,849 3,555 3,269 3,958 3,634 3,749 3,195 3,326 3,339 3,054 3,431 4,066 3,669 3,990 4,008 3,789 3,537 3,884 3,896 3,897 289 252 228 209 171 180 241 313 298 300 304 337 450 345 279 831 861 790 780 882 631 681 818 878 879 991 1,065 1,065 1,151 939 880 628 572 572 537 553 674 460 501 577 565 581 691 761 728 701 594 601 -376 -114 -14 -20 -70 -95 -138 8 -77 -79 -69 -21 -131 -121 -121 -144 -70 -27 178 171 133 163 131 138 177 229 225 131 138 144 195 148 126 122 145 159 201 165 230 546 248 178 151 208 272 368 217 208 217 213 216 279 247 243 289 229 228 -23 -10 -65 -25 -20 -43 -42 -57 -28 -44 -52 -38 -45 -30 -68 -71 -45 -16 -30 -42 92 101 118 106 92 97 83 96 80 110 97 91 95 99 100 115 100 88 122 97 92 108 124 128 171 117 117 126 138 138 138 141 143 133 144 130 183 171 132 138 128 134 107 5 -40 -32 19 10 16 33 10 -57 -20 23 -73 -9 -36 -64 -35 15 -53 -26 9 65 449 109 -187 -349 303 225 618 50 -96 278 -327 -436 -204 220 -262 203 -237 190 -103 169 -146 56 -269 -68 -399 -80 -3 -88 525 142 -141 -88 -127 -148 -31 -220 -29 -7 -257 -56 42 164 175 208 -228 27 76 246 602 147 -198 97 179 4 180 63 73 256 -184 92 76 -26 108 443 276 171 107 79 334 77 5 -57 185 306 153 211 283 102 262 73 148 34 119 479 920 621 90 -667 543 162 876 97 -2 5 3 2 -5 -8 -8 12 13 -473 -219 -434 111 397 -933 162 -803 -225 28 -23 -91 367 403 -132 265 -341 48 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -186 -38 -96 145 381 -51 27 -694 103 -45 -63 100 -39 -23 41 2 0 0 0 4 4 732 -1,797 68 431 256 85 304 -251 200 -240 448 42 -14 -17 -31 -17 -17 -11 13 24 22 -2 14 -766 2,113 -257 -694 -416 345 -532 450 -209 443 -605 203 -757 1,811 -69 -9 218 212 498 -176 371 1,170 -138 -4 8 10 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 -121 -477 1,642 -184 -553 -171 133 468 -270 598 1,095 -368 -76 59 67 100 -87 -6 66 98 47 42 -42 48 27 9 88 4 1 1 1 0 0 0 3 3 3 -4 -4 -4 0 0 14 213 45 91 69 -7 -81 187 273 88 -457 326 203 390 296 26 44 96 -246 161 144 42 -105 13 -23 52 64 19 5 20 14 68 -80 -83 89 -8 3 -60 45 -24 -108 78 -59 501 195 343 256 7 801 103 463 274 9 -302 188 686 634 -133 1,030 -627 580 727 466 -206 0 0 0 -42 0 0 0 2 1 -2 0 -1 1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 1 294 369 285 255 93 7 271 180 149 -39 107 91 328 30 -38 244 59 263 221 46 385 -34 -166 -106 -99 -9 84 -477 -10 82 -73 -112 -290 -35 331 -24 474 -423 381 286 50 -301 10 9 9 9 3 3 3 -15 -15 -15 7 7 7 -11 -11 -11 7 7 7 0 0 203 3 154 111 -137 -54 254 343 0 246 -269 371 335 212 -107 328 -247 -46 192 359 -240 27 -19 0 23 57 86 52 -38 56 -109 -35 10 50 72 47 -4 -23 -26 21 11 -51 0 0 0 0 0 675 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 12 -13 9 6 704 -3 8 24 65 64 6 6 4 27 6 -3 4 22 13 57 -402 108 11 -65 -499 116 -42 386 -67 169 170 -121 -225 -131 303 -138 361 -156 -121 -61 98 359 329 334 336 331 285 363 359 397 416 313 347 425 372 411 461 384 347 448 410 N/A 1,717 1,600 1,585 1,662 1,671 1,413 1,758 1,836 1,916 1,648 1,865 1,904 2,328 2,084 2,253 2,349 2,241 2,000 2,484 2,228 N/A 1,454 1,337 1,303 1,347 1,446 1,061 1,349 1,375 1,388 1,150 1,313 1,320 1,566 1,679 2,083 2,489 2,062 1,811 2,382 1,722 N/A 421 392 413 416 372 386 414 434 484 502 381 506 490 420 498 541 481 457 499 458 N/A 1,874 1,748 1,971 1,983 2,151 1,855 2,297 2,424 2,314 2,601 2,520 2,346 3,064 2,803 3,437 2,844 2,838 2,890 3,216 3,004 N/A 1,098 1,153 1,029 1,028 944 1,021 1,055 1,153 1,170 1,130 961 1,348 1,416 1,508 1,369 1,510 1,418 1,427 1,329 1,454 N/A 40 Statistical Appendix Monetary indicators and interest rates Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 1/2023 2019 2020 2020 2021 8 9 2021 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR million Claims of the BoS on central government 7,719 11,805 14,460 10,011 10,438 11,012 11,421 11,805 11,771 11,863 12,264 12,359 12,710 13,268 Central government (S,1311) 4,696 4,520 3,538 4,872 4,705 4,701 4,640 4,520 4,339 4,549 4,656 4,441 4,564 4,610 602 639 693 608 602 598 607 639 638 643 638 634 632 621 10,981 10,997 11,556 10,926 10,970 11,025 11,007 10,997 10,937 10,940 11,028 11,045 11,118 11,137 Non-financial corporations (S,11) 9,589 9,363 9,828 9,593 9,557 9,552 9,548 9,364 9,505 9,521 9,629 9,512 9,554 9,497 Non-monetary financial institutions (S,123, 124, 125) 1,661 1,640 1,602 1,666 1,656 1,653 1,642 1,640 1,633 1,647 1,619 1,624 1,617 1,706 Monetary financial institutions (S,121, 122) 5,230 7,969 10,607 7,390 7,096 7,266 7,729 7,969 8,595 8,104 8,568 8,634 8,669 10,009 27,913 30,341 34,136 29,494 29,625 29,858 30,299 30,342 30,993 30,524 31,151 31,131 31,260 32,655 391 345 284 368 354 352 343 345 337 330 324 316 310 310 4,382 4,361 3,302 5,116 4,528 4,499 4,447 4,361 4,235 4,468 4,577 4,359 4,499 4,531 Other government (S,1312,1313,1314) Households (S,14, 15) Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency In foreign currency Securities, total SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR million Deposits in domestic currency, total 31,109 34,567 38,152 33,345 33,420 33,639 34,003 34,567 34,947 35,161 35,665 35,566 35,770 37,094 Overnight 21,278 25,218 29,146 23,862 23,904 24,092 24,573 25,218 25,641 25,916 26,521 26,586 26,857 27,352 With agreed maturity – short-term 3,478 3,381 2,707 3,333 3,356 3,387 3,352 3,381 3,334 3,280 3,214 3,079 3,025 2,949 With agreed maturity – long-term 5,723 5,348 5,849 5,535 5,520 5,482 5,435 5,348 5,323 5,309 5,309 5,272 5,266 6,240 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 630 620 450 615 640 678 643 620 649 656 621 629 622 553 Deposits in foreign currency, total 634 723 828 699 728 706 711 723 721 740 786 776 810 789 Overnight 577 675 790 638 672 655 662 675 671 696 739 731 766 747 With agreed maturity – short-term 26 25 27 37 32 28 26 25 28 24 26 25 26 25 With agreed maturity – long-term 31 23 11 24 24 23 23 23 22 20 21 20 18 17 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 0 0 0 - - - - - - - - - - - INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.17 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.13 0.11 0.14 0.12 0.12 0.14 0.12 2.21 1.72 2.05 2.06 2.00 2.05 2.00 1.86 1.89 1.79 1.74 1.70 1.66 1.13 1.11 1.00 1.16 1.38 0.32 1.82 1.56 0.78 2.03 0.78 0.80 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 2.66 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 1.68 1.23 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operations 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3-month rates -0.356 -0.425 -0.425 -0.480 -0.491 -0.509 -0.521 -0.538 -0.547 -0.541 -0.539 -0.538 -0.540 -0.543 6-month rates -0.302 -0.364 -0.364 -0.433 -0.463 -0.494 -0.509 -0.519 -0.529 -0.521 -0.516 -0.516 -0.513 -0.515 3-month rates -0.737 -0.708 -0.760 -0.710 -0.751 -0.769 -0.771 -0.788 -0.765 -0.755 -0.753 -0.747 -0.747 -0.752 6-month rates -0.684 -0.659 -0.715 -0.658 -0.707 -0.727 -0.729 -0.738 -0.725 -0.711 -0.707 -0.706 -0.703 -0.709 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR LIBOR Sources: BoS, EUROSTAT. Statistical Appendix Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 1/2023 2021 41 2022 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 14,012 14,316 14,332 14,365 14,736 14,460 14,546 14,391 13,642 13,380 13,290 13,055 13,574 13,025 12,457 12,425 12,733 4,523 4,325 4,183 3,762 3,705 3,538 3,658 3,680 3,464 3,496 3,458 3,429 3,430 3,318 3,114 3,060 3,086 619 628 627 627 636 693 706 698 693 691 689 692 691 695 695 702 710 11,223 11,299 11,365 11,449 11,514 11,556 11,583 11,638 11,779 11,859 11,965 12,037 12,140 12,252 12,333 12,387 12,425 9,560 9,481 9,511 9,945 9,886 9,828 10,113 10,223 10,330 10,539 10,589 10,664 10,968 11,131 11,098 11,281 11,349 1,700 1,710 1,726 1,731 1,737 1,602 1,616 1,637 1,734 1,743 1,752 1,772 1,820 1,828 1,852 1,883 1,865 9,796 10,069 10,135 9,858 9,931 10,607 10,424 10,047 9,941 9,264 9,830 8,687 8,844 8,832 9,227 8,834 9,124 32,593 32,875 33,010 33,252 33,347 34,136 34,283 34,071 34,213 33,792 34,381 33,413 33,958 34,239 34,682 34,599 34,982 307 314 298 295 293 284 281 273 303 320 298 295 310 302 292 265 262 4,438 4,240 4,146 3,727 3,667 3,302 3,432 3,474 3,320 3,368 3,495 3,463 3,511 3,401 3,226 3,193 3,229 37,159 37,331 37,242 37,128 37,224 38,152 37,999 38,015 37,946 38,013 38,338 37,574 37,805 38,130 38,293 38,537 38,573 27,599 27,860 28,010 27,989 28,272 29,146 29,166 29,238 29,338 29,592 29,899 30,138 30,374 30,790 30,951 30,845 31,170 2,892 2,811 2,808 2,761 2,687 2,707 2,619 2,596 2,674 2,622 2,666 2,639 2,719 2,693 2,790 3,057 2,848 6,158 6,141 5,931 5,831 5,746 5,849 5,737 5,713 5,523 5,459 5,441 4,515 4,441 4,366 4,263 4,332 4,228 510 519 493 547 519 450 477 468 411 340 332 282 271 281 289 303 327 812 817 804 835 839 828 834 851 965 1,007 1,036 1,093 1,103 1,133 1,161 1,066 1,033 771 776 771 803 803 790 799 817 847 883 894 953 964 1,005 1,041 957 927 25 26 19 19 24 27 24 24 109 115 134 132 131 120 113 102 99 16 15 14 13 12 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.12 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.15 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.11 0.14 0.16 1.69 1.65 1.69 1.63 1.67 1.69 1.66 1.66 1.65 1.67 1.79 2.02 2.22 2.52 2.64 2.96 3.36 1.40 0.89 1.36 0.95 0.10 1.08 1.46 0.79 0.97 0.92 1.48 2.1 1.02 2.74 3.03 .. 3.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 1.25 1.25 2.00 2.50 -0.545 -0.548 -0.545 -0.550 -0.567 -0.582 -0.560 -0.532 -0.495 -0.448 -0.386 -0.239 0.037 0.395 1.011 1.428 1.825 2.066 -0.516 -0.527 -0.522 -0.527 -0.534 -0.545 -0.527 -0.476 -0.417 -0.311 -0.144 0.162 0.467 0.837 1.596 1.997 2.321 2.567 -0.756 -0.769 -0.756 -0.766 -0.779 -0.778 - - - - - - - - - - - - -0.715 -0.723 -0.720 -0.714 -0.721 -0.726 - - - - - - - - - - - - 42 Statistical Appendix Public finance Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 1/2023 2019 2020 2021 2020 Q3 2021 Q4 Q1 Q2 2022 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021 Q3 1 2 3 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS–IMF methodology), current prices GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES, EUR million TOTAL REVENUES 19,232.3 18,528.6 21,382.6 4,892.9 4,892.0 4,803.9 5,574.1 5,151.3 5,853.2 5,613.9 6,079.7 5,647.1 1,674.5 1,484.6 1,644.8 Current revenues 18,293.3 17,578.7 20,124.0 4,634.5 4,617.4 4,525.9 5,334.6 4,874.2 5,389.3 5,138.5 5,824.1 5,396.6 1,613.4 1,422.4 1,490.2 17,179.1 16,460.4 18,785.7 4,343.3 4,379.8 4,241.4 4,902.8 4,565.8 5,075.6 4,813.0 5,455.3 5,029.7 1,491.5 1,326.7 1,423.2 Tax revenues Taxes on income and profit 3,614.0 3,261.8 3,981.3 832.8 304.8 317.1 320.0 Social security contributions 7,021.3 7,289.9 7,928.1 1,954.5 1,912.5 1,915.2 1,998.0 1,964.1 2,050.9 2,048.8 2,090.9 2,098.3 628.1 643.0 644.1 Taxes on payroll and workforce Taxes on property Domestic taxes on goods and services 764.7 925.2 941.8 1,205.5 785.5 1,048.5 1,049.7 1,485.3 23.2 21.6 23.9 5.6 6.1 5.0 5.9 6.0 7.0 6.0 6.7 6.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 296.4 287.3 316.9 111.3 96.4 33.5 84.8 102.2 96.3 32.4 82.1 128.6 9.9 8.7 14.9 6,126.7 5,493.3 6,359.2 1,565.1 1,482.7 1,268.6 1,566.9 1,692.2 1,831.5 1,574.1 1,744.1 1,866.6 504.1 350.8 413.7 Taxes on international trade & transactions 98.6 102.4 177.4 25.3 28.7 28.1 34.6 36.7 78.0 67.2 56.9 85.6 7.6 9.0 11.5 Other taxes -1.1 4.1 -1.1 -83.4 -71.7 49.2 7.2 -20.9 -36.6 34.7 -10.8 11.3 35.4 -3.5 17.3 1,114.2 1,118.2 1,338.4 291.3 237.6 284.5 431.7 308.4 313.7 325.5 368.8 366.9 121.9 95.7 66.9 Non-tax revenues Capital revenues 136.4 146.9 228.3 31.3 64.3 36.4 54.9 56.0 81.1 64.1 66.3 64.3 4.1 14.4 17.8 Grants 13.8 17.5 21.9 6.9 1.1 6.7 2.0 10.3 2.9 12.2 29.6 12.3 1.0 5.6 0.2 Transferred revenues 58.3 54.8 57.3 30.6 2.3 1.7 2.1 51.4 2.0 0.4 22.0 30.2 0.9 0.5 0.4 730.5 730.7 951.2 189.6 206.9 233.3 180.5 159.5 377.9 398.8 137.8 143.8 55.2 41.8 136.3 18,968.8 22,070.6 24,299.8 5,250.2 6,092.2 6,102.6 5,932.1 5,580.0 6,685.1 5,929.4 5,967.0 5,825.2 2,067.3 1,724.0 2,311.2 Receipts from the EU budget GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES, EUR m TOTAL EXPENDITURES Current expenditures 8,228.3 9,127.8 10,393.6 2,201.0 2,493.2 2,659.0 2,495.4 2,362.5 2,876.7 2,677.1 2,327.8 2,483.2 789.4 719.6 1,150.0 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 4,470.5 4,965.3 5,765.3 1,242.2 1,221.7 1,484.0 1,623.4 1,330.1 1,327.7 1,292.4 1,393.8 1,380.5 501.9 432.0 550.1 Expenditures on goods and services 2,728.0 3,020.7 3,336.6 739.0 933.4 724.9 767.0 794.0 1,050.7 841.9 803.5 835.1 195.8 235.9 293.3 Interest payments 791.5 778.0 732.2 187.0 95.0 386.9 45.5 204.6 95.2 336.1 16.4 212.6 82.5 24.8 279.7 Reserves 238.4 363.8 559.5 32.8 243.2 63.1 59.5 33.9 403.1 206.7 114.2 55.0 9.2 27.0 26.9 8,704.2 10,867.7 11,318.7 2,632.9 2,706.9 3,018.3 2,984.0 2,605.1 2,711.3 2,801.0 2,973.4 2,542.0 1,156.8 837.8 1,023.7 Current transfers Subsidies Current transfers to individuals and households Current transfers to nonprofit institutions, other current domestic transfers Current transfers abroad Capital expenditures 467.9 1,449.3 867.3 100.8 171.9 67.4 57.2 7,323.9 8,250.8 9,167.7 2,061.9 2,032.5 2,494.4 2,374.0 2,158.6 2,140.7 2,293.2 2,448.0 2,223.4 972.6 674.8 846.9 827.7 1,083.2 1,131.0 305.5 264.2 296.4 302.3 111.5 157.1 188.0 195.8 248.9 376.7 197.6 276.6 298.3 358.4 277.8 276.7 197.0 3.1 88.6 105.9 152.7 16.6 33.4 29.9 31.0 36.7 55.1 41.9 52.9 20.7 9.3 7.0 13.6 1,252.9 1,230.6 1,544.7 263.2 561.9 194.3 278.0 402.4 670.0 225.8 432.6 487.6 47.3 62.7 84.4 84.7 84.4 Capital transfers 273.6 318.5 413.9 68.0 178.0 33.4 55.7 86.2 238.6 43.2 60.5 132.5 4.8 11.4 17.3 Payments to the EU budget 509.7 526.0 628.9 85.1 152.2 197.5 119.1 123.8 188.5 182.2 172.7 180.0 69.1 92.5 35.9 SURPLUS / DEFICIT 263.5 -3,542.1 -2,917.2 -357.3 -1,200.1 -1,298.6 -358.0 -428.7 -831.9 -315.5 112.7 -178.1 -392.8 -239.4 -666.4 Source: MF, Consolidated balance of public financing. Statistical Appendix Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 1/2023 2021 4 5 6 7 8 43 2022 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1,894.8 1,880.1 1,799.2 1,647.4 1,725.0 1,779.0 1,868.0 1,891.9 2,093.4 2,035.8 1,782.6 1,795.5 2,043.9 2,011.2 2,024.7 1,807.8 1,898.1 1,941.2 1,903.0 1,956.2 1,802.4 1,799.2 1,733.0 1,571.4 1,669.8 1,633.1 1,803.4 1,697.6 1,888.3 1,822.8 1,685.9 1,629.8 1,949.4 1,894.0 1,980.7 1,750.1 1,806.2 1,840.2 1,800.2 1,868.3 1,739.7 1,550.9 1,612.3 1,470.3 1,570.2 1,525.3 1,699.0 1,615.6 1,761.0 1,737.9 1,518.8 1,556.2 1,850.3 1,791.4 1,813.7 1,633.5 1,688.2 1,708.0 1,720.2 1,730.5 411.8 414.8 378.9 141.7 334.6 309.2 331.7 327.6 389.2 332.6 348.2 368.9 406.6 578.7 500.0 132.7 371.6 328.5 347.1 381.2 664.9 665.6 667.5 661.3 658.9 643.9 639.5 651.3 760.1 680.4 677.2 691.2 704.3 698.5 688.2 700.6 697.7 700.0 693.7 730.2 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.3 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.7 2.2 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.4 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 19.5 27.3 38.1 35.7 34.1 32.4 43.5 33.2 19.7 12.4 8.5 11.5 20.5 23.2 38.5 48.9 41.6 38.1 45.1 33.8 622.4 447.4 497.0 643.4 517.1 531.7 661.1 576.3 594.1 623.0 483.3 467.7 638.3 531.2 574.6 681.5 594.3 590.8 613.1 565.5 11.6 10.5 12.5 11.4 10.1 15.2 29.1 15.5 33.3 27.0 14.0 26.2 27.0 15.0 14.9 39.1 18.2 28.3 30.7 21.2 7.5 -16.5 16.2 -25.5 13.5 -8.9 -8.0 9.6 -38.2 60.3 -14.4 -11.3 51.5 -57.2 -5.1 28.2 -37.1 20.1 -11.8 -3.7 62.7 248.3 120.8 101.1 99.6 107.7 104.4 82.0 127.3 84.8 167.1 73.6 99.2 102.6 167.0 116.6 118.0 132.2 80.1 137.8 16.4 15.3 23.2 23.4 13.4 19.2 27.5 26.8 26.8 18.5 23.6 21.9 23.0 22.0 21.2 22.5 22.5 19.2 26.7 24.6 0.5 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.4 9.5 0.4 2.0 0.6 0.9 11.1 0.2 0.4 29.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 11.8 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.2 1.9 31.1 20.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 20.0 1.5 0.0 30.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 75.5 65.0 40.0 21.1 21.4 116.9 36.0 165.1 176.8 193.5 61.8 143.4 70.6 46.1 21.1 34.9 39.2 69.7 75.1 61.0 1,772.8 1,969.8 2,189.5 1,901.1 1,885.3 1,793.6 1,736.7 2,139.4 2,809.0 1,906.6 1,793.1 2,229.6 1,873.8 1,923.8 2,169.4 1,952.5 1,938.5 1,934.3 1,909.3 2,318.6 708.1 858.8 928.4 794.6 832.5 735.5 662.4 943.8 1,270.5 803.2 739.3 1,134.6 704.6 749.2 874.1 813.4 887.5 782.3 796.0 907.1 423.6 554.4 645.4 448.8 487.7 393.6 402.7 474.0 451.0 424.2 427.2 441.0 414.7 432.5 546.7 447.3 517.9 415.4 429.4 493.0 230.4 282.3 254.3 267.0 267.5 259.5 233.5 285.7 531.5 226.4 262.0 353.5 243.4 272.3 287.8 283.2 286.9 265.0 278.2 311.5 36.3 3.9 5.3 63.1 68.4 73.1 15.8 66.3 13.2 17.8 23.6 294.8 8.4 3.4 4.6 56.2 65.1 91.3 17.5 65.9 17.9 18.2 23.4 15.7 8.9 9.3 10.4 117.8 274.9 134.8 26.5 45.4 38.2 40.9 35.1 26.7 17.6 10.7 70.9 36.8 958.0 1,111.8 929.2 836.7 839.3 829.5 906.8 975.0 972.5 885.2 943.3 982.3 917.4 1,073.7 902.5 773.3 866.2 914.2 856.1 1,003.7 84.7 116.0 101.6 43.3 46.9 21.3 12.3 64.7 80.1 115.9 29.7 42.4 69.9 107.7 18.2 34.8 23.8 42.2 28.9 58.9 734.0 731.5 908.5 779.9 672.7 706.1 720.4 701.7 718.6 772.9 749.9 770.5 767.2 743.5 937.3 773.9 731.1 718.4 727.7 820.2 77.2 105.1 94.3 95.9 100.9 101.5 88.0 120.9 149.5 74.7 92.5 110.7 132.0 46.8 97.8 86.1 12.7 98.3 92.6 98.6 18.2 5.4 7.4 10.2 16.1 10.4 8.7 19.5 26.9 9.1 13.1 19.7 13.2 19.3 20.4 7.7 5.7 7.3 6.9 25.9 86.1 91.3 100.6 128.9 138.1 135.4 159.1 175.4 335.5 52.1 77.2 96.5 105.6 177.7 149.2 147.9 176.0 163.7 164.7 275.2 24.1 14.5 17.1 19.4 32.7 34.1 32.5 49.0 157.1 12.1 16.8 14.3 23.6 16.6 20.3 35.2 30.4 66.9 38.0 67.6 40.4 47.2 31.4 29.1 45.3 49.4 53.2 64.4 70.9 66.6 74.7 40.9 57.7 62.9 52.0 53.5 71.2 55.3 54.5 65.0 -89.7 -390.3 -253.7 -160.3 -14.6 131.2 -247.5 -715.6 129.2 -10.6 -434.1 170.1 87.4 -144.7 -144.7 -40.4 6.9 -6.3 -362.4 122.0 44 Acronyms Slovenian Economic Mirror, No 1/2023 Acronyms Acronyms in the text AJPES – Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, BoS – Bank of Slovenia, CI – core inflation, DARS – Motorway Company of the Republic of Slovenia, EC – European Commission, EBA – European Banking Authority, ECB – European Central Bank, EIA – Energy Information Administration, ENTSO-E – European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity, ESF – European Social Fund, ESI – Economic Sentiment Indicator, ESRR – European Regional Development Fund, ESS – Employment Service of Slovenia, EU – European union, EUR – Euro, EURIBOR – Euro Interbank Offer Rate, EUROSTAT – Statistical Office of the European Union, FC – Fiscal Council, FURS – Financial Administration of the Republic of Slovenia, GDP – Gross domestic product, GNI – gross national income, HICP – Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, ICT – Information and Communication Technology, IMAD – Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, IMF – International Monetary Fund, MF – Ministry of Finance, NEER – Nominal Effective Exchange Rate, NFI – Non-monetary Financial Institutions, OECD – Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, PMI – Purchasing Managers' Index, REACT-EU – Recovery Assistance for Cohesion and the Territories of Europe, REER – Real Effective Exchange Rate, RS – Republic of Slovenia, RRP – Recovery and Resilience Plan, SRE – Statistical Register of Employment, SURS – Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, SVRK – Government Office for Development and European Cohesion Policy, TTF – Title Transfer Facility, USD – US Dollar, VAT – value added tax, ZPIZ – Pension and Disability Insurance Institute of Slovenia, ZZZS – The Health Insurance Institute of Slovenia. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities A – Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B – Mining and quarrying, C – Manufacturing, 10 – Manufacture of food products, 11 – Manufacture of beverages, 12 – Manufacture of tobacco products, 13 – Manufacture of textiles, 14 – Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15 – Manufacture of leather and related products, 16 – Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17 – Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18 – Printing and reproduction of recorded media, 19 – Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, 20 – Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21 – Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22 – Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23 – Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24 – Manufacture of basic metals, 25 – Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26 – Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27 – Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28 – Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c., 29 – Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, 30 – Manufacture of other transport equipment, 31 – Manufacture of furniture, 32 – Other manufacturing, 33 – Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D – Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, E – Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities, F – Construction, G – Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H – Transportation and storage, I – Accommodation and food service activities, J – Information and communication, K – Financial and insurance activities, L – Real estate activities, M – Professional, scientific and technical activities, N – Administrative and support service activities, O – Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P – Education, Q – Human health and social work activities, R – Arts, entertainment and recreation, S – Other service activities, T – Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods- and services- producing activities of households for own use, U – Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AT-Austria, BA-Bosnia and Herzegovina, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, CZ-Czech Republic, CYCyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, HR-Croatia, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IE-Ireland, IL-Israel, IT-Italy, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RS-Republic of Serbia, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America. slovenian economic mirror No. 1, Vol. XXIX, 2023