Slovenian economic mirror April 2009, No. 4. Vol. XV Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3826 No. 4 / Vol. XV / 2009 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Director: Boštjan Vasle, MSc Editor in Chief: Jure Brložnik, MA Matej Adamič (International Environment); Barbara Ferk, MSc, Katarina Ivas, Janez Kušar, Jože Markič, MSc, Tina Nenadič, Mateja Peternelj, MSc, Jure Povšnar (Economic Developments in Slovenia); Saša Kovačič, Tomaž Kraigher, Ana T. Selan, MSc (Labour Market); Slavica Jurančič, Miha Trošt (Prices); Jože Markič, MSc (Balance of Payments); Marjan Hafner (Financial Markets); Barbara Knapič Navarrete, Jasna Kondža (Public Finance); Štefan Skledar ( Possible Measures in Response to the Financial Crisis - Unemployment Benefits); Alenka Kajzer, PhD (Possible Measures in Response to the Financial Crisis -Shortening Working time) Editorial Board: Lidija Apohal Vučkovič, Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, Mateja Peternelj, MSc, Boštjan Vasle, MSc Translator: Marija Kavčič Language Editor: Terry Troy Jackson Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Bibijana Cirman Naglič Print: Tiskarna Solos Circulation: 500 copies The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the Spotlight................................................................................................................................................3 Current Economic Trends................................................................................................................................5 International Environment...............................................................................................................................................7 Economic Developments in Slovenia...............................................................................................................................................8 Labour Market.........................................................................................................................................................................................13 Prices..................................................................................................................................................................................16 Balance of Payments.......................................................................................................................................................18 Financial Markets...................................................................................................................................................................................19 Public Finance..........................................................................................................................................................................................21 Selected Topics..............................................................................................................................................25 Possible Measures in Response to the Financial and Economic Crisis - Unemployment Benefits....................27 Possible Measures in Response to the Financial and Economic Crisis - Shortening Working Time .................29 Statistical Appendix......................................................................................................................................31 Boxes Box 1: (In)solvency.........................................................................................................................................................10 Box 2: Movements on the Real Estate Market...........................................................................................................12 On January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev.2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia, the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, which includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses, came into force on the mentioned date. In the Slovenian Economic Mirror, all analyses are based on the SKD 2008, except when the previous SKD 2002 classification is explicitly referred to. More general information about the introduction of the new classification is available on the SORS website http://www.stat.si/eng/ skd nace 2008.asp. Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2009 3 In the Spotlight In the spotlight As expected, the IMF and the European Commission published revised forecasts of economic trends, according to which GDP in the euro area is set to shrink by 4.0% this year. The EC forecasts suggest a stabilisation of the economy in the second half of the year and a recovery of economic growth at the beginning of 2010. Certain signs of stabilisation are already in sight, as March saw smaller drops of indicators of economic activity in our main trading partners compared with the last months of2008 and some sentiment indicators even improved. There are still significant risks that the crisis might be deeper, particularly if the measures adopted in response to the crisis did not take effect. The ECB cut interest rates in April and May, to 1.0%, and similar to other main central banks, announced the use of more conventional measures. Following steep declines in merchandise exports and the volume of industrial production in November and December, their values remained at similar levels in the first three months of this year, while they dropped significantly y-o-y due to negative movements at the end of2008. After strong monthly declines in November and December 2008, exports and the volume of industrial production remained at similar levels in the first three months of2009, according to seasonally-adjusted data. As a result of the negative developments at the end of last year, the values of merchandise exports and industrial production were lowery-o-y by 22.9% and 18.9%, respectively. A similar situation can be seen in movements of the values of completed construction works in the construction sector and real turnover in retail trade. According to the data on business trends, in addition to insufficient demand, enterprises increasingly report financial difficulties and low availability of funds. In the first four months of this year, the average number of insolvent legal entities and the average total daily amount of their outstanding liabilities increased significantly again. In February, the number of persons in employment was lower, for the first time since the end of 2003; the number of the registered unemployed increased to 82,832 by the end of April. Compared to January, the total number of persons in employment declined by 3,514; of that, 80% were manufacturing and construction. The number of the registered unemployed rose in March and April, contrary to previous years, when it dropped in this period for seasonal reasons. In the first three months of this year, the number of persons who lost work nearly doubled y-o-y and the outflow of unemployed persons to employment was considerably lower. The average nominal gross wage declined in February for the third month in a row (by 2.4%), this time also in the public sector. Its y-o-y growth slowed significantly as well (4.2%). In February, the average wage in the private sector, where drops were recorded for all activities, declined by a nominal 3.0% and in the public sector by 1.3%. Y-o-y wage growth also slowed significantly in both sectors, but remained considerably higher in the public (9.5%) than in the private sector (2.0%). Developments in the first months suggest that the average wage in the private sector might drop in 2009 as a whole. Y-o-y inflation dropped again in April (1.1%), which is, in addition to lower pressures, due to declining economic activity mostly a result of the base effect related to last year's commodity price rises. With oil prices around the current level and in the absence of other price shocks, y-o-y inflation will be slowing in the coming months as well. In the whole euro area, y-o-y inflation remained unchanged (0.6%) in April, according to the first estimate. In the first two months, the current account deficit was EUR 247.9 m lower y-o-y; financial transactions posted a net outflow, despite the issue of a government bond. The narrowing of the current account deficit was largely a result of a lower deficit in merchandise trade, given that imports declined more than exports. The deficits in factor incomes and current transfers were also lower, and so was the surplus in the services balance. Owing to the issue of a three-year government bond in a nominal value of EUR 1 bn, February posted a high net capital inflow into the general government, but the net outflows from the private sector and Bank of Slovenia (decrease in its liabilities to the Eurosystem) were even higher. Lending activity slowed once again significantly in March, net flows of loans were negative largely due to repayment of general government loans, while net corporate and NFI borrowing was at the lowest level since 2005. Contrary to January and particularly February, the government net repaid loans in the amount of EUR 144.4 m in March and net corporate and NFI borrowing only totalled EUR 5.3 m. Household deposits stagnated after four months of growth, while general government deposits, after posting a high net inflow (EUR 1.2 bn) in Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2009 4 In the Spotlight the first two months, saw a net outflow of EUR 242.8 m in March. In the first quarter, turnover on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange was at the lowest level since data have been available (2005), and in April, the main index recorded modest growth after two months of decline. In the first quarter of2009, revenue from taxes and social security contributions dropped by 2.1% relative to the same period last year; according to the non-consolidated data for February, the state budget deficit reached EUR 290 m in the first two months. Y-o-y growth of general government revenue continued to slow in March (for the fifth consecutive month) in the first quarter particularly on account of revenues from corporate income tax (-10.5%) and VAT (-16.5%). In February, state budget revenue was 6.5% lower y-o-y, and expenditure 17.8% higher. The health fund also posted a deficit in February, according to the available data. The absorption of European funds was still modest in the first three months, but is expected to improve in the second half of the year as a result of adopted measures. current economic trends Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2009 Current Economic Trends 6 Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 7 Current Economic Trends International environment The IMF and European Commission published revised forecasts of economic trends for 2009 and 2010, as expected. Both institutions predict the largest contraction of the world economy in the post-war period for this year, but the lowering of their 2009 growth forecasts has slowed in the last month; both institutions now predict a similar contraction of the economy as envisaged by the OECD in March. According to the EC forecast, all EU members are set to post negative growth in 2009, except Cyprus, but there are significant differences between the states. Export-oriented economies will be affected the most, due to the collapse in global trade. Some countries are more directly exposed to the financial and housing-market crisis, while some also face deterioration in external financing conditions following the build-up of imbalances. The most recent forecasts of all international institutions suggest a stabilisation of the situation and a subdued Figure 1: Actual economic growth and the Spring Forecast by the European Commission — EMU growth - Forecast EMU US growth Q u ? -i a a Source: EC Spring Forecast. recovery of the economy, which is also shown by certain indicators of economic activity and sentiment indicators. The European Economic Commission's forecast includes all measures that have been adopted by the countries thus far and without which economic growth in the EU would have been another 1.0 p.p. or 0.75 p.p. lower in 2009 and 2010, respectively, than anticipated now. All forecasts highlight a high uncertainty and the past experience that recovery is usually relatively sluggish when a recession is associated with a financial crisis. This holds all the more true for the current situation when we face the deepest and most globally synchronised recession to date. There are still considerable risks that might make the crisis even deeper, with the greatest danger that the adopted measures will not suffice in breaking the negative feedback loop between deteriorated financial conditions and shrinking economic growth. In the US, the GDP contraction was even more pronounced in Q1 than at the end of2008, though there are already signs of stabilisation. GDP was down 2.6% in the year to Q1, largely due to further declines in private consumption and private investment. The drop in foreign trade deepened as well, more notably in imports than exports. However, there are signs of stabilisation, as certain sentiment indicators have already started to rebound. The situation on the housing market, where prices are already down by around one third relative to their June 2006 peaks, has started to improve as well. The results of the stress test conducted on the 19 largest American financial institutions have already been released, showing that, amid a further tightening of the situation, the banks need USD 75 bn in new capital to ensure capital adequacy, which is below market expectations. These results are an important step in lowering the uncertainty on financial markets. The interest rates of central banks and interest rates on interbank markets continue to decline. The ECB cut its key interest rate by 0.25 p.p. to 1.25% in April, and by another 0.25 p.p. in May, to 1.0%, which is still substantially above the key interest rates of other main world central banks (Fed: 0.0%-0.25%, Bank of England: 0.5 %, Bank of Japan: 0.1 %). Along with the lowering of its key interest rate, the Table 1: IMAD's assumptions for economic growth and forecasts by international institutions 2009 2010 IMF Jan 09 EC Jan 09 IMAD Mar 09 OECD Mar 09 CONS Apr 09 IMF Apr 09 EC Apr 09 IMF Jan 09 EC Jan 09 IMAD Mar 09 OECD Mar 09 CONS Apr 09 IMF Apr 09 EC Apr 09 EMU -2.0 -1.9 -4.1 -4.1 -3.4 -4.2 -4.0 0.2 0.4 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 -0.4 -0.1 EU -1.8 -1.8 -3.9 N/A -3.2 -4.0 -4.0 0.5 0.5 -0.3 N/A 0.3 -0.3 -0.1 DE -2.5 -2.3 -5.1 -5.3 -4.5 -5.6 -5.4 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.5 -1.0 0.3 IT -2.1 -2.0 -4.2 -4.3 -3.6 -4.4 -4.4 -0.1 0.3 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 -0.4 0.1 AT N/A -1.2 -3.5 N/A -2.3 -3.0 -4.0 N/A 0.6 -0.3 N/A 0.1 0.2 -0.1 FR -1.9 -1.8 -3.3 -3.3 -2.5 -3.0 -3.0 0.7 0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.4 -0.2 UK -2.8 -2.8 -3.5 -3.7 -3.3 -4.1 -3.8 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 US -1.6 -1.6 -4.0 -4.0 -2.7 -2.8 -2.9 1.6 1.7 2.5 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.9 i: Eurostat. European Commission Interim Forecast (January 2009). IMF World Economic Outlook (January 2009). Consensus Forecasts (February 2009). Consensus F (March 2009). OECD Economic Outlook (March 2009). IMAD Spring Forecast (April 2009). 4 3 2 0 Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2009 Current Economic Trends 8 ECB announced that, similar to other main central banks, it would start buying covered bonds issued by banks in the euro area, in the amount of EUR 80 bn. The ECB will also double the maximum term of its loans to banks from six to twelve months. The value of the three-month EURIBOR totalled 1.42% on average in April, down 0.21 p.p. from March. In April, oil prices increased to an average of USD 50.2 a barrel. The average oil price was up 7.8% from March and down 54.0% y-o-y. The euro appreciated against other main world currencies in April. The euro gained value against the US dollar again, by 1.1% (the average exchange rate of USD 1.3190 to EUR 1). The euro also appreciated against the Japanese yen (the average exchange rate of JPY 130.24 to EUR 1) and Swiss franc (the average exchange rate of CHF 1.5147 to EUR 1), while the value of the euro dropped relative to the British pound sterling (the average rate of GBP 0.8976 to EUR 1). Economic developments in Slovenia In February, the decline in merchandise trade slowed noticeably at the monthly level for the second month in a row, while in y-o-y terms the value of merchandise trade was considerably lower.1 Following the significant November and December drops (by -11.3% on average), the lowering of merchandise exports (monthly seasonally adjusted) slowed in the first two months of the year (-0.9%); February also saw a lower decline in merchandise imports. In February, merchandise exports were by a nominal 25.1% lower y-o-y, and merchandise imports by 29.1%. Figure 2: Merchandise exports and imports In February, exports and imports dropped y-o-y in nominal terms. The largest contributions to both declines came from trade in road vehicles. In February, merchandise exports to the EU declined by a nominal 25.9% y-o-y, and to non-EU countries by a nominal 23.3%. According to the available data on the structure of exports by SITC, only electricity exports made a visible positive contribution to export growth, while the largest negative contribution came from road vehicle exports, whose growth has been falling y-o-y since May 2008. Similar movements as for export flows were recorded for import flows, with an even greater decline. Merchandise imports from EU Member States dropped by 32.8% y-o-y in February, and from non-EU countries by 14.5%. The breakdown of imports by end-use product groups shows that in January the greatest negative contribution came from imports of road vehicles. In the first two months this year, total merchandise exports were down 25.3% y-o-y and imports as much as 30.2%. In January, the terms of merchandise trade improved, as import prices dropped at a faster pace than prices of exports.2 The terms of merchandise trade have otherwise been improving y-o-y since last November, when oil and non-oil commodity prices started to plunge. In January, export prices were down by 1.4% y-o-y and import prices by 6.2%; the terms of trade thus improved noticeably, by 5.1%. Figure 3: Terms of merchandise trade Terms of trade -----Export prices -Import prices 108 106 104 102 100 98 96 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. The value of trade in services is dropping in y-o-y terms, albeit at a slower pace than the value of merchandise trade. The decline in service exports is mainly due to slower exports of transport services, which are fairly closely linked to the movements of merchandise exports. As a result of the financial and economic crisis, trade in financial, Source: SORS, calculations by IMAD. 94 92 90 80 70 1 According to the external trade statistics. 2 According to the external trade statistics. Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2009 9 Current Economic Trends Figure 4: Industrial production in manufacturing Figure 5: Movement of inventories in manufacturing - Original data - Seasonally adjusted data — Inventories per unit of production — Stock of inventories / ( Source: SORS, calculations by IMAD. insurance and construction services also began to slow this year. In February, the largest negative contributions to export growth came from exports of road and maritime transport services and construction services. Looking at imports, the largest negative contributions came from imports of maritime and railway transport services and insurance. In the first two months of 2009, exports of services fell by a nominal 9.6% y-o-y and imports of services by 6.7%. In February, the decline in production activity in manufacturing slowed, but production activity was again notably lower y-o-y. Relative to January, it went down by 1.2% according to the seasonally-adjusted data, while relative to February 2008, the volume of production was 24.2% lower (working-day adjusted data), which largely reflects the fast production decline over the last months of 2008. The volume of production was lower than in February 2008 in all manufacturing industries, most notably in certain predominantly export-oriented and less technology-intensive activities, such as the leather (-51.2%), textile (-40.2%) and furniture industries (-36.3%). A considerable decline was also seen in turnover from sales (-24.1%), both on domestic and foreign markets. Table 2: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia In % 2007 2008 II 09/ I 09 II 09/ II 08 Exports1 16.9 4.7 3.2 -23.1 -goods 16.3 1.2 6.4 -25.1 -services 20.1 20.8 -8.3 -13.1 Imports1 18.3 6.1 5.9 -26.3 -goods 18.1 5.5 5.5 -29.3 -services 20.1 9.8 8.3 -2.6 Industrial production 7.2 -1.2 -0.92 -22.33 -manufacturing 8.5 -1.3 -1.22 -24.23 Construction -value of construction put in place 18.5 15.7 1.12 -25.03 Distributive trade - turnover in distributive trade and the sale and repair of motor wehicles 9.5 10.4 -5.52 -11.93 Hotels and restaurants - turnover in hotels and restaurants 0.3 -4.0 -1.62 -10.93 Figure 6: Limiting factors and capacity utilisation in manufacturing according to business trends -----Financial problems -Insufficient foreign demand -----Shortage of labour in general -Capacity utilisation (right axis) 80 70 60 jj 50 la 0 40 ta 1 30 20 10 0 a a a a Source: SORS. Sources: BS, SORS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1balance of payments statistics, Seasonally adjusted ,3working-day adjusted data. 2 According to the external trade statistics. 90 90 80 80 70 85 80 75 70 p 65 60 Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 10 Current Economic Trends Box 1: (In)solvency The number of insolvent legal entities increased in the first quarter of2009 relative to the final quarter of2008. The average monthly number of legal entities which had outstanding matured liabilities for more than five consecutive days in a month increased by 5.4%. The total number of bankruptcy procedures filed against legal entities was up 4.8%, while the total number of personal bankruptcy procedures filed against sole proprietors rose by one third. The number of legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities for more than five days in a month was highest in March 2009 (3,902); most of them were in construction, trade, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles and manufacturing. In Q1 2009, two compulsory settlement procedures1 were launched against long-term insolvent legal entities (both against legal persons), 65 bankruptcy procedures (35.4% in trade, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles; 16.9% in manufacturing and 15.4% in construction) and 20 personal bankruptcy procedures against sole proprietors (within that 40.0% in hotels and restaurants and 20%, respectively, in trade, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles, and construction). Figure 7: Legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities for more than 5 days in a month Other activities (left axis) ^^m Manufacturing (left axis) Construction (left axis) Trade; maintenance and repair of motor vehicles (left axis) -Average total daily amount of outstanding liabilities (right axis) 4000 i-,-,-,-i- 160 Figure 8: Beginning of bankruptcy procedures 3500 Ž 2000 140 120 100 c o 80 1 cc ZD LU 60 40 20 0 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Source: AJPES. Oct 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Source: AJPES. 1 For more on the characteristics of these procedures, see SEM, March 2009. 35 30 25 20 3000 15 2500 10 1500 5 1000 0 0 In recent months, the level of inventories posted somewhat slower growth, but inventories are still rising. Inventories of finished and intermediate products in industry are increasing and were 7.1% higher in the first two months than in the same period last year. Amid a sharp drop in demand, inventories per unit of production increased notably in the last analysed months, despite a considerable decline in production activity. If there is no significant pick-up in demand, we can expect further adjustments of the volume of production, due to increased inventories. According to the quarterly data on business trends, insufficient foreign demand remained the most frequently reported limiting factor to production in April, and capacity utilisation dropped once again. Based on data from April's business tendency survey in manufacturing, similar to January, enterprises cited insufficient demand, particularly foreign demand, as the most limiting factor to production. Nearly 70% of the surveyed enterprises were faced with this limitation. Compared with January, enterprises also more frequently reported uncertain economic conditions as a factor limiting production (47%), followed by financial problems (24%) and unpaid bills (20 %). Enterprises also estimated that at the beginning of Q2, their competitive positions continued to deteriorate on all markets, compared with Q1 2009, most notably outside the EU. The low capacity utilisation in January (74.5%) dropped further in April, to 68.9%, a new record low (data since Q1 1996). In March, electricity production increased largely on account of higher hydro-energy output, while electricity consumption dropped y-o-y for the 13th month in a row. Electricity output was up 8.6% y-o-y in March, in hydroelectric power plants by more than half. Electricity consumption was 12.0% lower y-o-y, as a result of lower production in manufacturing. Of the total, 44% of the decline still came from decreased consumption in aluminium production, while all direct consumers together (production of iron and steel, in addition to aluminium production) Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 11 Current Economic Trends contributed almost two thirds to the total consumption decline. Electricity consumption from the distribution network (4.8% lower y-o-y) contributed one third. Monthly net exports of electricity strengthened further in March, to 249 GWh (more than 20% of output). In Q1, the total electricity output was 6.6% higher y-o-y, while consumption was 10.4% lower. Figure 9: International road and rail freight transport (measured in tonne-km) -International road freight transport -International railway freight transport Figure 10: Value of construction put in place 30 25 20 f 15 or ra 10 o 5 0 -5 -10 -Original data -Seasonally adjusted data L A /AsV \ /f\ / r\ n / 7 aaaoaaaoaa a a Source: SORS, calculations by IMAD. Source: SORS. the value of construction put in place was up 1.1% from that in January, but was still considerably lower than at the beginning of 2008. In the first two months, the value of construction put in place was 25.9% lower than in the same period last year. The largest decline was posted for non-residential construction (-32.8%), while in residential construction3 the value remained at a similar level as last year. Certain indicators suggest a significant decline in road transport in Q1; in Q4 2008, road freight transport still posted strong y-o-y growth, while the growth of rail transport declined. In Q4, the volume of rail freight transport dropped by 3.6% due to a decline in international transport (-7.0%); at the annual level, it was lower as well (-2.3%). The volume of road freight transport increased by 17.2% in Q4, almost solely on account of further strong growth in international transport (25.7%), which is the main reason for strong growth in the total year 2008 (18.4%). The effects of the crisis are also visible in the road transport sector and had already been suggested by lower rolling stock renovation in Q4 2008, which decreased further in Q1 2009, when the number of new truck registrations dropped by 46.7% y-o-y (by 78.1% for road tractors and 64.5% for trailers). The decline is also indicated by other indicators such as the volume of German industrial production, the volume of domestic construction activity, exports of road transport services and data by the national motorway company DARS on the passage of trucks through highway toll stations. As a result of the crisis and in the wake of the Slovenian presidency of the EU in 2008, the volume of air transport and airport traffic continued to decline at an accelerating pace in the first two months of this year (in February by 18.7% and 25.7%, respectively). In February, construction activity was at a similar level as a month earlier. According to the seasonally-adjusted data, New contracts and orders in construction declined at the beginning of the year. According to the construction Figure 11: Limiting factors in construction according to business trends 70 60 50 g 40 o 30 "U 20 10 0 - Insufficient demand - High cost of capital Access to bank credits Shortage of skilled labour ™ < Source: SORS. 3 In interpreting data on the value of residential construction, it should be noted that these figures exclude the activity of smaller enterprises, where the main activity is judged to be the construction of residential buildings. 35 75 50 15 Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 12 Current Economic Trends Figure 12: Movements of second-hand dwelling prices and transactions on the housing market - Prices of flats Transactions -fats Box 2: Movements on the Real Estate Market According to the SORS data, housing prices continued to drop gradually in Q4 2008 from their peak values of Q1 2008. The decline was also recorded by the Surveying and Mapping Authority of the Republic of Slovenia (SMARS) and Slonep.1 The decline in the prices of flats thus accelerated somewhat in Q4 2009, also according to the data by SORS; for the first time, prices also dropped y-o-y (-2.9%). Prices started to mirror, albeit with a time lag and to a smaller extent, the drop in demand, which was evidenced by a further strong decline in the number of transactions (sales). The number of market transactions in second-hand dwellings taken into account in the calculation by SORS (omitting less probable and outlier prices) had been declining for a year and a half, and was in Q4 2008 at the lowest level since data have been available (January 2004). The continuation of the strong decline in the number of transactions had already been highlighted in our February analysis of SMARS data for Q4 2008. With regard to prices, the SMARS data on the average value of transactions in flats and houses indicated a drop relative to Q3 2008, but nevertheless still showed some y-o-y growth. The Q4 2008 price drop was also evidenced by the Slonep data on advertised prices of flats in Ljubljana representing the largest share, around one third of the whole Slovenian market of flats. In Q4 2008, these prices declined by an average of 2.3%, the first quarterly decline since the average value of advertised prices of Ljubljana's dwellings started to be calculated in 2003. The available SMARS and Slonep figures for Q1 2009 indicate that the downward trends in the number of transactions and prices of flats continue. The first (still uncleansed) SMARS data suggest a further decline in the number of transactions, and the Slonep data a further gradual drop in prices of Ljubljana's flats. Source: SORS, calculations by IMAD. 1 For more on the differences between the methodologies of these institutions, see SEM, December 2008. statistics, the value of the stock of contracts was 11.0% lower in January than a year before, and the value of new contracts decreased by 28.8% y-o-y in the first two months. Seasonally-adjusted data on business trends show a similar picture, as both the overall order-book and the expected order-book indicators dropped to their lowest values since the beginning of measurement (March 2002). The most important limiting factor is insufficient demand, which also hit a new high again in April. Real turnover dropped in February at the monthly level and for the year as a whole in all sectors of retail trade.4 The total real turnover recorded the largest y-o-y decline in the whole period observed (since January 2001). In the sale of non-food products, which saw the largest y-o-y turnover decline in the past eight years (-8.7%), only specialised stores with pharmaceutical, medical and cosmetic products posted turnover growth. In the sale of motor vehicles, turnover declined for the fifth consecutive month (-25.0%), which is also indicated by the number of new passenger car registrations, which was more than a fifth (-21.9%) lower than a year earlier. Turnover in the sale of automotive fuels also declined (-21.3%), and so did turnover in the sale of food products, beverages and tobacco (-6.4%). The confidence indicator in retail trade improved somewhat in April, but remained at a lower level than in the first months of the year. Activity in hotels and restaurants slowed in February, according to the available data. Real turnover declined Figure 13: Real turnover in retail trade —♦— Sale and repair of motor vehicles -Retail trade ----- -Automotive fuel - -Food, beverages, tobacco - - Non-food 50 - es 40 g ar er 30 a g n iv 20 vo m h tn 10 o m- m 0 ,h 5 or -10 rg -o- -20 -30 4 In retail trade, sale and repair of motor vehicles (47+45). o < ^ o Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 13 Current Economic Trends again, in monthly and y-o-y terms. The lower y-o-y turnover in hotels and restaurants and accommodation services was strongly underpinned by lower numbers of tourists'arrivals (-18.8%) and overnight stays (-15.2%), which posted the largest drops since data have been available (since January 1991), mainly as a result of fewer arrivals and overnight stays by foreign tourists. In the first two months of the year, real turnover in hotels and restaurants dropped by nearly a tenth y-o-y (-8.9%), also due to a lower number of tourists' overnight stays (-6.3%). In Q1, household expenditure was significantly lower than a year before. Turnover in retail trade went down by 5.1% and natural persons registered nearly 25% fewer new cars. Consumer borrowing was modest and households made net repayments of consumer loans (in the amount of EUR 30 m). The consumer confidence indicator was also much lower than a year earlier: consumers were the most pessimistic about the economic situation, increased unemployment and major purchases in the next 12 months. The y-o-y real rise in the net wage bill was still relatively high on average in Q1 (4.6%), largely due to the base effect in public sector wages. In April, consumption did not become any stronger, according to the available data, given that the number of new car registrations by natural persons dropped by more than a third relative to the previous April, and consumer confidence declined once again. Figure 14: Private consumption indicators I Net wage bill (real terms) Number of first car registrations by natural persons ** Turnover in retail trade (real terms) * - Consumer confdence indicator, original value (right axis) Source: SORS, MI-IAAD. Note: »data from March 2006 onward. »» SCA 2008. The business sentiment indicator fell to a new low in April (January 2000), even though in recent months its decline slowed month-on-month. The overall indicator declined again, chiefly due to lower values of indicators in service sectors and construction. The consumer confidence indicator also dropped, showing the largest increase in Figure 15: Business tendency -Economic sentiment -----Manufacturing -Retail trade -----Consumers -Service act. Construction 40 30 ^ 20 et .H 10 d a = 0 a I -10 eas à -20 la vrot -30 ta cdi -40 -50 -60 ^ t m w 0 0 0 0 an ul an lu Source: SORS. consumers' pessimism about their financial situation in the next 12 months. The values of all situation indicators fell once again in manufacturing, while the indicators of expectations rose, except for expected employment. Labour market In February, the number of persons in employment was lower than in the same month of 2008 (-0.3%), for the first time since the end of 2003. The number of employed persons dropped notably y-o-y in manufacturing (by 14,315) and in agriculture and mining, while in other sectors it was still higher than a year before. Relative to January, the number of persons in employment dropped by a further 0.4% in February (3,514 persons); within that as much as 80% in manufacturing and construction. The number of vacancies and the number of persons hired rose for seasonal reasons in March, but remained about a third lower y-o-y. The number of work permits for foreigners increased again, to 92,642 in March, 28.5% more than a year earlier. Most foreign workers work in activities with the lowest average wages. The number of the registered unemployed increased again in March, unlike the past years when it had already started to decline for seasonal reasons in February. In March, the number of registered unemployed persons increased by a further 2,500 to 79,682 and in the first quarter as a whole, by a total of 13,443. The number of persons who lost work almost doubled (24,836) relative to the first quarter of 2008. The outflow of unemployed persons to employment was lower as well (9,472), and so was the number of persons struck off the unemployment register for other reasons. In Q1, the number of registered vacancies was 38.2% lower than in the same quarter of 2008, and the number of persons hired dropped by 32.7%. -12 14 Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2009 Current Economic Trends Figure 16: Formally employed and registered unemployed persons -Employed 2009 (left axis) ----Employed 2008 (left axis) ---------Employed 2007 (left axis) -Unemployed 2009 (right axis) ----Unemployed 2008 (right axis) -........Unemployed 2007 (right axis) Table 3: Labour market indicators S « N. X-- --- ______ —___ in % 2007 2008 II 09/ I 08 II 09/ II 08 Labour force 1.6 -0.6 0.0 0.8 Persons in formal employment 3.5 3.1 -0.4 -0.3 - Employed in in enterprises and organisations and by those self-employed 3.3 3.1 -0.4 -0.2 Registered unemployed -16.9 11.4 4.4 15.2 Average nominal gross wage 5.9 8.3 -2.4 4.2 - private sector 6.91 7.81 -3.0 2.0 - public sector 4.11 9.71 -1.3 9.5 2008 II 08 I 09 II 09 Rate of registered unemployment, in % 6.7 7.1 7.0 8.2 Average nominal gross wage (in EUR) 1,391.43 1,325.73 1,416.40 1,381.87 Private sector (in EUR) 1,315.49 1,246.83 1,310.70 1,271.42 Public sector (in EUR) 1,642.58 1,583.46 1,756.23 1,733.31 Source: SORS, calculations by IMAD. Sources: ESS, SORS; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1SCA2002. 120 100 90 80 70 60 50 In February, the registered unemployment rate was at 8.2%, already 1.9 p.p. higher than in September, when it hit the lowest value to date (6.3%). In April, the number of the registered unemployed increased by another 3,204, to 82,832. In February, wages declined for the third month in a row, this time in both sectors; their y-o-y growth also decelerated significantly again. The gross wage per employee declined in February, except in the public administration, by 2.4% on average in nominal, and by a further 0.5 p.p. in real terms. At the y-o-y level, nominal growth decelerated, dropping to 4.2% (9.3% in February 2008), totalling 5.5% in the first two months as a whole. The largest contribution (5.5%) came from public sector wages. The private sector posted negative wage growth for the third consecutive month. In previous years, the gross wages in the private sector were usually somewhat lower in February than in January, but there are typically fewer working days in February. This February saw a 3.0% nominal drop in the average gross wage, despite the same number of working days, which is attributable to a decline in economic activity, which has already led to Figure 17: Vacancies, people hired and the number of unemployed per vacancy 40 8 Figure 18: Nominal gross wage per employee - Number of unemployed per vacancy (right axis) a a Source: ESS, calculations by IMAD. -Total -Private sector i \ (A-N;S) î \ -----Public sector i \ (O-R) i t ........' \ 1 A 1 /.\ i / A\ / / \ ff Ys/ / ' \ / //i - - t \/ « V t i 1 < ~1 O — Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 18 16 30 7 14 20 6 12 10 5 10 g0 4 8 3 6 2 4 0 Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 15 Current Economic Trends Table 4: Persons in formal employment by activity Number in 1,000 Y-o-y growth rates, % 2008 XII 08 II 09 2008/ 2007 II 09/ XII 08 II 09/ I 09 II 09/ II 08 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 39.7 38.8 37.8 -1.8 -2.6 0.0 -7.3 B Mining and quarrying 3.6 3.4 3.4 -5.2 -0.2 -0.2 -8.0 C Manufacturing 222.4 216.3 209.6 -0.5 -3.1 -1.1 -6.4 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 7.7 7.7 7.8 -1.1 1.1 1.1 2.4 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 8.8 9.0 8.9 4.7 -1.0 0.0 2.5 F Constrution 87.9 89.5 87.7 12.2 -2.0 -0.6 5.5 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 115.8 116.9 115.9 3.5 -0.8 -0.3 1.0 H Transportation and storage 51.2 51.4 50.8 5.4 -1.3 -0.5 0.7 I Accommodation and food service activities 33.8 34.3 33.9 1.7 -1.1 0.1 1.5 J Information and communication 21.9 22.4 22.5 4.8 0.3 0.2 4.8 K Financial and insurance activities 24.3 24.6 24.7 4.2 0.1 -0.9 3.4 L Real estate activities 4.2 4.3 4.3 9.6 0.2 -1.0 10.8 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 42.8 44.4 44.2 7.1 -0.5 -0.4 6.0 N Administrative and support service activities 26.0 26.0 25.5 5.2 -2.2 -0.8 1.2 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 51.0 50.8 51.0 1.3 0.3 -0.3 0.2 P Education 60.0 61.0 61.4 1.5 0.7 0.4 2.5 Q Human health and social work activities 51.0 51.6 51.8 2.7 0.3 0.5 1.8 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 13.8 14.0 14.0 6.5 -0.1 0.2 1.8 S Other service activities 12.8 13.1 13.1 1.3 -0.4 0.3 4.8 T Activities of households as employers, undiferentiated goods - and services - producing activities of households for own use 0.5 0.5 0.5 6.4 -1.2 0.8 10.1 Source: SORS, calculations by IMAD. the implementation of a shorter workweek. The average wage dropped in all sectors. The y-o-y rise in private sector wages totalled 2.0% in nominal terms and almost halved relative to January. These movements suggest that the average wage in the private sector may drop in 2009. In the public sector, wages were lower in February than in January and their growth also slowed noticeably y-o-y. The average gross wage in the public sector was 1.3% lower compared with the month before. The gross wage in the public administration saw a modest increase (0.4%), while in education the gross wage practically stagnated (-0.2%). Unexpectedly high declines were posted by the health and social care sector (-4.4%) and cultural, recreational and sporting activities (-2.8%)5. In the health sector, payments for overtime work declined by more than a tenth, but the largest part of the wage decline was a result of January's high base (due to the 5 Particularly due to the decline in wages in sectors carrying out special gambling activities (-6.1%). disbursement of performance bonuses and payments for increased workload for the past year). Y-o-y growth of the gross wage in the public sector otherwise slowed from January's 15.3% to 9.5%, which is attributable to the high base of February 20086 and a significant February decline of wages in the aforementioned sectors; however, it was still notably higher than in the private sector. The Ministry of Public Administration7 found that upon the transition to the new wage system, the level of difficulty had been (in some units) increased for certain jobs8, and the government has requested the line ministries to conduct appropriate inspections based on which these irregularities will be rectified. 6 Last February, public sector wages were adjusted for higher-than-anticipated inflation in 2007, by 3.4%, with payment for the difference accrued since January. 7 'Actualised estimate of financial consequences of the introduction of the new wage system on the basis of data by ministries on job systemisation and paid wages', March 2009. 8 Particularly in the fields of education and sports, health, social care, agriculture and forestry and compulsory social security. 16 Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2009 Current Economic Trends Prices Y-o-y inflation dropped again in April, to 1.1%, while consumer prices remained almost unchanged relative to February (0.1%). The moderation of inflation is partly a consequence of the high base, given that commodity prices (oil prices, in particular) increased significantly in the same period of 2008, which is this year, in the absence of these shocks, reflected in lower inflation. The ease of inflationary pressures is also in great part related to the decline in economic activity, which was even faster in the first months of the year. In the first four months of 2009, consumer prices increased by 1.2% (2.1% last year). Inflation was relatively high (1.0%) in March, as usual for this period of the year, while y-o-y inflation continued to slow (1.8%). The expected further slowing of y-o-y inflation is, in addition to the ease in upward pressures on prices as a result of deteriorated economic conditions, in large part a consequence of the base effect, which is mainly related to the rising prices of oil in the first half of last year. This effect is reflected in a negative contribution to Figure 19: Breakdown of y-o-y inflation 8 I Liquid fuels Food I Other Services Figure 20: Inflation in Slovenia and in the total euro area -Slovenia: Inflation -----Slovenia: Inflat. excl. energy and unproces. food -Euro area: Inflation ----Euro area: Inflat. excl. energy and unproces. food 8 ï 5 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. O < ^ Source: SORS, Eurostat. 5 7 ; 4 6 3 2 4 3 0 2 0 Table 5: Prices in % 2008 2009 XII 2008/ XII 2007 O (I 08-XII 08)/ O (I 06-XII 07) III 09/ II 09 III 09/ III 08 $ (II 08-III 08)/ O (II 06-III 07) Consumer prices (CPI) 2.1 5.7 1.0 1.8 4.5 Goods 1.3 6.0 1.1 1.1 4.4 - Fuel and energy -7.2 10.6 0.2 -4.6 4.5 - Other 3.2 5.0 1.5 2.1 4.1 Services 3.8 5.0 0.9 3.3 4.5 Consumer prices (HICP) 1.8 5.5 1.1 1.6 4.3 Administered prices1 -7.8 9.6 -0.5 -6.4 4.7 - Energy -11.9 14.4 -0.9 -11.0 7.5 - Other 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.2 Core inflation - trimmean 2.6 3.9 0.6 2.0 3.3 - excluding (fresh) food & energy 3.9 4.6 1.1 3.1 4.2 Consumer prices in the EMU 1.6 3.3 0.4 0.6 2.7 Producer prices of domestic manufacturers - domestic market 3.5 5.6 0.0 0.8 4.4 - EMU 0.1 2.2 -1.7 -1.7 1.7 Sources: SORS. Eurostat. calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 due to annual changes of the administered price index. figures are not directly comparable across years. Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2009 Current Economic Trends 17 inflation of rises in prices of liquid fuels for transport and heating (-0.9 p.p.). Service price rises contributed 1.0 p.p. to inflation; food price rises, 0.5 p.p.; and rises of prices of other goods, 1.2 p.p. Domestic producer prices of manufactured goods on the domestic market remained unchanged in March and their y-o-y growth continues to slow. Electricity prices increased for the second successive month (by 1.3% in March), but prices in the manufacture of metals and metal products declined. Compared with February, y-o-y producer price growth dropped by 0.4 p.p. y-o-y, to 0.8%. Manufacturing even posted negative y-o-y price growth in March (-0.7%), mainly as a consequence of negative y-o-y growth rates in the manufacture of food products (-2.3 %) and in the manufacture of metals and metal products (-8.9%). The price competitiveness of the Slovenian economy was stable in the first two months of2009. The real effective exchange rate deflated by relative consumer prices9 was at December's level in February, given that the nominal Figure 21: Producer prices of manufactured goods on the domestic market Figure22: Real and nominal effective exchange rates 18 15 12 9 ë 6 3 o m 3 o ^ 0 -3 - Producer prices of manufactured goods, total - Manufacture of food products ■ Manufacture of metals and metal products Source: SORS. effective exchange rate was stable in the first two months and consumer price growth in Slovenia was similar to that in Slovenia's trading partners. In the first two months, the real effective exchange rate was only slightly higher y-o-y (0.2%), as given a slight decline in the nominal effective exchange rate, the increase of relative prices was low as well (0.6%). In terms of price competitiveness, Slovenia was one of the middle-ranked euro area countries this year. Six Member States boasted better cost competitiveness than a year earlier, while in all other EU countries cost competitiveness declined. Slovenia's price competitiveness against its partners outside the EU was improving, owing to the significant euro volatility on 114 112 110 108 106 o f 104 10 0 ™ 102 x u "U _£ 100 98 .....N ominal effective exchange rate al, deflated by PPI al, deflated by CPI -Re -Re \ \ - Source: ECB, SORS, OECD; calculations by IMAD. foreign exchange markets (depreciation against the USD, CHF and JPY with a concurrent appreciation against the CZK, PLN, HUF and SEK), while its price competitiveness against the EU countries outside the euro area continued to deteriorate. Price competitiveness in manufacturing improved in the first two months of 2009 and its y-o-y deterioration slowed. In February, the real effective exchange rate deflated by relative producer prices in manufacturing (on the domestic market)10 was lower than in December ( 0.5%), while in the first two months of 2009 it was higher than in the comparable period of 2008 (2.0%). Figure 23: Real effective exchange rates of euro-area members in the first two months of 2009, deflated by HICP 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 -C % or 0.5 CT ^ O 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 ||ir — nj g y m Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD. 94 92 13.4 12 9 In Slovenia, compared with its trading partners. 10 In Slovenia, compared with its trading partners. Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 18 Current Economic Trends The y-o-y deterioration resulted from a producer price drop in Slovenia's trading partners (-1.9% in the first two months), amid notably slower growth of producer prices in Slovenia (down to 0.5 %). Balance of payments In the first two months, the current account deficit (EUR 94.2 m) narrowed by EUR 247.9 m y-o-y. The decline was largely a result of a lower deficit in merchandise trade. The deficits in factor incomes and current transfers also declined, but so did the surplus in the services balance. In February, the current account deficit was higher than in the previous month, totalling EUR 80.3 m, EUR 59.9 m less than in February last year. The merchandise deficit was lower y-o-y than last November and totalled EUR 22.4 m in February, the lowest figure since May 2006. Also in February, the decline was mainly due to a lower deficit in trade with the EU and in part to a lower surplus in trade with non-EU countries. In the first two months, the total trade deficit was EUR 266.5 m lower y-o-y, dropping to EUR 54.0 m. Following January's modest growth, the surplus in the services balance was at EUR 78.1 m in February, EUR 39.2 m lower y-o-y. It posted EUR 200.6 m in the first two months of 2009, EUR 36.4 m less than in the same period last year. The decline was mainly underpinned by lower net exports of transport services. In the first two months of 2009, the factor income deficit Table 6: Balance of payments I-II 09, EUR m Inflows Outflows Balance1 Balance, I-II 08 Current account 3,359.7 3,453.9 -94.2 -342.1 - Trade balance (FOB) 2,483.6 2,537.6 -54.0 -320.6 - Services 629.0 428.5 200.6 237.0 - Income 170.0 314.1 -144.2 -157.6 Current transfers 77.2 173.7 -96.6 -100.9 Capital and financial account 1,591.3 -1,605.7 -14.4 335.4 - Capital account 21.5 -31.0 -9.5 8.3 - Capital transfers 21.2 -29.6 -8.4 9.1 - Non-produced, non-financial assets 0.3 -1.4 -1.1 -0.9 - Financial account 1,569.8 -1,574.7 -4.9 327.1 - Direct investment 44.1 -85.1 -41.0 51.5 - Portfolio investment 734.5 181.9 916.4 705.1 - Financial derivates -20.0 0.8 -19.2 5.7 - Other investment 728.6 -1,672.3 -943.7 -472.4 - Assets 724.9 0.0 724.9 -825.0 - Liabilities 3.7 -1,672.3 -1,668.6 352.6 -Reserve assets 82.6 0.0 82.6 37.1 Net errors and omissions 108.6 0.0 108.6 6.7 Sources: BS. Note: 'a minus sign (-) in the balance indicates a surplus of imports over exports in the current account and a rise in assets in the capital and financial account and the central bank's international reserves. Figure 24: Components of the current account balance ^^■Current account Current transfers Factor incomes Services balance -Trade balance 200 dropped chiefly on account of net interest payments on foreign loans, despite lower net interest receipts from portfolio investment, both as a result of declining interest rates on international financial markets. The somewhat lower deficit in current transfers was largely linked to a lower deficit in other general government current transfers (lower net payments of taxes and contributions to the rest of the world). 0 Source: BS Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2009 19 Current Economic Trends Following three months of net financial inflows, financial transactions posted net outflows in February. February saw a pronounced inflow of capital into the general government due to the issue of a government bond, but net capital outflows from the private sector and Bank of Slovenia were even higher. International financial transactions (excluding international monetary reserves) reached a net capital outflow of EUR 87.5 m in the first two months of 2009. Direct investment posted net outflows in the amount of EUR 41.0 m in the first two months. Outward foreign direct investment was somewhat higher y-o-y, while inward foreign direct investment flows declined, largely due to modest investment in equity capital. Portfolio investment reached a net capital inflow of EUR 916.4 m in the first two months. In January, the Republic of Slovenia issued a benchmark three-month government bond in a nominal value of EUR 1 bn. The government spent EUR 200 m on the final repayment of debt based on the issued RS56 bond, putting the rest in domestic commercial banks, which placed the bulk of assets in foreign accounts and short-term liquid investment - money market instruments. The net capital outflow from other investment also continued in February and totalled EUR 943.7 m in the first two months of 2009. The net outflow of currency and household deposits reached EUR 969.2 m, in great part as a result of February's payment of liabilities of the BS to the Eurosystem (EUR 935.7 m). The stock of the BS's short-term gross external debt thus declined, to EUR 2.8 bn at the end of February. This is also why Slovenia's gross external debt was lower at the end of February, totalling EUR 38.1 bn (104.3% of estimated GDP), while gross external assets in debt instruments amounted to EUR 28.6 bn (78.2% of GDP). The net external debt position totalled EUR 9.5 bn at the end of February (26.0% of estimated GDP), dropping by EUR 40 m compared to January. Financial markets The lending activity slowed significantly again in March. Net flows were negative, as a consequence of net repayment of general government loans (EUR 144.4 m), which was most probably the reason for a net outflow of general government deposits in the amount of EUR 242.8 m in March. Net borrowing of enterprises and NFI from domestic banks almost ceased, posting the lowest figure since comparable data have been available (2005). Sources on foreign interbank markets remained rather limited and household deposits stagnated in March. Looking at positive movements, the maturity structure continued to change in favour of long-term deposits. The volume of net household borrowing remained rather low in March. In the currency structure, stronger growth was otherwise posted for borrowing in the form of euro loans, which was the highest in the last eight months (EUR 64.5 m), most probably as a result of swaps of foreign currency loans with loans nominated in euros, as the former were repaid in a net amount of EUR 48.2 m. The volume of housing loans continued to slow, and was, reaching EUR 20.4 m, by EUR 1.4 m lower than in February. Once again households strengthened net repayment of consumer loans, which had thus already posted a negative net flow for the fourth consecutive month. Enterprises and NFI borrowed only EUR 5.3 m in net in March, just slightly over 2% of the monthlyaverage for the last 12 months. While corporate borrowing accounted for the largest part of net flows in previous months, enterprises repaid loans in a net amount of EUR 29.9 m this time, solely as a result of repayment of working capital loans; the volume of investment loans remained modest as well. By contrast, net borrowing by NFI increased slightly in March, amounting to EUR 35.7 m, the highest figure in Figure 25: Financial transactions of the balance of payments ^^B Other investment ^^B Financial derivatives Portfolio investment ^^B Direct investment — Net financial flow 1000 800 600 400 n oi 1 200 0 -200 -400 -600 Figure 26: Net flows and growth of domestic bank loans to domestic non-banking sectors Households (left) Enterprises&NFI (left) Government (left) -----Households (right) -Enterprises$ NFI (right) -Total (right) c 400 oi 1 300 cc 2 200 100 0 -100 -200 20 Î Source: BS. Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. 40 30 10 0 20 Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2009 Current Economic Trends the last four months. In terms of structure by purpose, only NFI investment loans stood out slightly, totalling EUR 14.2 m. Enterprises and NFI thus borrowed EUR 302.5 m in net from domestic banks in Q1, nearly three quarters less than in the comparable period last year. A much less noticeable decline was recorded for corporate and NFI borrowing abroad, which even strengthened somewhat in February. Enterprises and NFI raised foreign loans in a net amount of EUR 69.5 m, the highest value in the last three months. In the first two months of 2009, enterprises thus raised foreign loans in a net amount of EUR 110.0 m, almost a tenth lower figure than in the comparable period last year. The maturity structure of corporate borrowing abroad is quite favourable, given that practically the total volume of net flows comes from long-term loans, while short-term loans were repaid in a net amount of EUR 0.5 m in the first two months of the year. Contrary to enterprises, banks continue to net repay foreign loans. February's net repayments were otherwise at the lowest level (EUR 39.3 m) in the past four months of repayment, but banks had net repaid long-term loans already for the third month in a row; raising of short-term loans is, on the other hand, fairly modest as well. In the first two months of 2009, banks thus repaid foreign loans in a net amount of EUR 178.5 m, while they borrowed EUR 223.3 m in net in the comparable period last year. The y-o-y growth rate of the volume of loans is still falling at an accelerated pace and was at 13.6% in March, the lowest since comparable data have been available (2005). The volume of foreign currency loans declined for the third consecutive month, while the volume of euro loans stagnated for the first time since the adoption of the euro. In Q1 2009, banks granted loans to domestic non-banking sectors in a net amount of EUR 445.9 m, slightly over 30% of the value posted in the comparable period last year. The slowdown of credit activity in the euro area as a whole Table 7: Financial market indicators Domestic bank loans to non-banking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR bn Nominal loan growth, % 31. XII 08 31. III 09 31. III 09/ 28. II 09 31. III 09/ 31. XII 08 31. III 09/ 31. III 08 Loans total 31,551.0 31,996.9 -0.4 1.4 13.6 Enterprises and NFI 23,139.4 23,441.9 0.0 1.3 14.4 Government 584.6 686.8 -17.4 17.5 25.6 Households 7,827.0 7,868.2 0.2 0.5 10.3 Consumer credits 2,883.9 2,854.4 -0.4 -1.0 2.9 Lending for house purchase 3,395.3 3,461.6 0.6 2.0 20.1 Other lending 1,547.7 1,552.2 0.5 0.3 5.2 Bank deposits total 13,689.1 13,994.3 0.0 2.2 8.6 Overnight deposits 5,249.4 5,276.5 1.4 0.5 -1.9 Short-term deposits 5,644.8 5,742.7 -1.8 1.7 5.9 Long-term deposits 1,957.7 2,333.1 4.9 19.2 86.4 Deposits redeemable at notice 837.2 642.1 -10.9 -23.3 -22.5 Mutual funds 1,513.4 1,420.1 -0.1 -6.2 -39.6 Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BS, SMA (Securities Market Agency); calculations by IMAD. Figure 27: Net flows of corporate and NFI borrowing by purpose ■ Other loans ■ Loans for gross fixed capital formation ■ Working capital loans 750 600 450 no E 300 c 3 150 0 -150 -300 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. was even more pronounced, as net flows of loans reached only 5% of the value posted in the comparable period last year and the y-o-y growth rate had already dropped to a low figure of 3.2%. Households in the euro area net repaid loans in the first three months of 2009, while enterprises and NFI reached only slightly over 15% of the 2008 level. In March, household deposits in banks practically stagnated, after rising continuously in the previous four months. March was thus strongly marked by a flow of assets from short-term (-EUR 103.5 m) into long-term deposits, which otherwise recorded the lowest net inflows (EUR 109.6 m) in the last four months. After posting high net flows in the first two months of 2009 (EUR 1.2 bn), Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2009 21 Current Economic Trends Figure 28: Net flows of household deposits into banks and mutual funds and y-o-y growth rates ^^^ Mutual funds (left axis) ^^^M Other deposits (left axis) Long-term time deposits (left axis) 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 — Deposits, total (right axis) Long-term time deposits (right axis) Mutual funds (right axis) / ✓ / v / / / « / i i t / / * * ■1 1 1 , ✓ M* - _ i _ ■ _ ft i JTÎI m nrnii y nr I n« \ Fl ri 1 V \ Apr 07 Jun 07 Aug 07 778888889 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ■j-iu-Q^ccg-MU-Q Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 Turnover on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange strengthened somewhat in March. Posting EUR 72.7 m, it nevertheless fell behind the 12-month average by more than a tenth. In Q1 2009, the total turnover stood at EUR 162.5 m, the lowest value since the last quarter of 2005. Following two consecutive months of growth, market capitalisation dropped by 1.4% in March, chiefly as a result of a lower market capitalisation of shares (by 2.6%) due to the negative movements on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange, while the market capitalisation of bonds remained unchanged. In April, the main index on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange recorded 2.7% growth, after two months of decline. Even stronger growth was posted by indices on developed markets, in the interval between 7.3% (DOW JONES) and 16.7% (DAX), which can largely be attributed to positive expectations for measures adopted in response to the crisis and relatively better-than-expected business results. Public finance general government deposits in domestic banks posted a net outflow of EUR 242.8 m in March. After February's net inflows, mutual funds recorded net outflows once again in March, in the amount of EUR 21.7 m, the highest value in the past four months. Outflows were mainly posted for stock and mixed mutual funds. Despite a relatively high outflow, the volume of assets managed by mutual funds shrank by a mere EUR 1.8 m (0.1 %), as in this period, mutual funds recorded positive yields, mainly as a result of favourable developments on foreign capital markets. By the end of March, the volume of assets in mutual funds managed by domestic administrators dropped to EUR 1.4 bn, almost two fifths less than in the year before. Figure 29: Movement of the SBI20 and other main indices FTSE -DOW -DAX -SBI20 Source: Finance.yahoo.com, www.mscibarra.com, Lbo. In the first three months of the year, revenue from taxes and social security contributions dropped by 2.1% relative to the same period last year. According to the data on paid taxes and social security contributions,11 the payments totalled EUR 3.1 bn. The slowdown of growth in general government revenue, which had already been pronounced in the previous four months, continued in March, for all categories of taxes and contributions. In the first three months of 2009, the fastest y-o-y increase was recorded for revenue from excise duties (13.3%), largely as a result of several increases of excise duties on liquid fuels for transport and heating in recent months and the increase in excise duties on alcohol in March. In the first three months, relatively strong growth was also recorded for revenue from wage-related taxes, specifically from personal income tax (7.9%) and social security contributions (6.4%), although revenues from both these sources had already slowed noticeably in March compared with February. Advance payments of corporate income tax are declining from month to month, largely due to the statutory possibility of using a different method of their determination, which enables enterprises to take account of deteriorated business results. In March, the advance payment reached less than 60% of the value recorded for this tax in the year before. In the first three months as a whole, the advance payments were by a high percentage of 10.5% lower than in the same period last year. Revenue from value added tax declined for the third month in a row; in the first three months, it decreased by 16.5% on average y-o-y, which (amid the problems regarding the timing of tax payments and refunds) mainly reflected a decline in economic activity. 11 Based on the Report on Payments of All Public Revenues, January-February 2009, Public Payments Administration. Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 22 Current Economic Trends Tabale 8: Consolidated general government revenues and expenditure 2008 2009 EUR m % of GDP Growth, % I 2009 in EUR m I 09/ I 08 Revenues - total 15,335.0 41.3 9.5 1,123.1 1.0 - Tax revenues 13,937.2 37.5 9.2 1,068.5 -1.1 - Taxes on income and profit 3,442.1 9.3 18.0 249.4 -11.9 - Social security contributions 5,095.0 13.7 10.8 433.4 -9.8 - Domestic taxes on goods and servises 4,805.3 12.9 6.8 370.7 8.4 - Receipts from the EU budget 365.4 1.0 5.0 7.5 57.4 Expenditure - total 15,434.7 41.6 10.9 1,119.8 -8.7 - Wages and other personnel expenditure 3,580.6 9.6 9.3 305.5 -13.7 - Purchases of goods and services 2,525.9 6.8 14.2 171.7 -10.8 - Transfers to individuals and households 5,616.2 15.1 10.3 463.1 -10.8 - Capital expenditure 1,252.0 3.4 10.7 57.4 -6.9 - Capital transfers 458.0 1.2 37.0 12.8 -42.5 - Payment to the EU budget 427.9 1.2 20.2 32.1 42.7 Source: MF. According to the consolidated balance,12 general government revenue and expenditure totalled EUR 1.1 bn in January. Revenue declined y-o-y (-1.0%), while expenditure increased (8.7%). In the last seven years, revenue declined in y-o-y terms only in January 2002. This January, expenditure growth almost doubled relative to last year. In terms of the economic structure of expenditures, in January the largest increase was seen in expenditure on investment transfers; as expected, wages and other personnel expenditures also posted noticeable increases. High growth was also recorded for expenditure on goods and services and transfers to individuals and households. Among transfers, January saw the highest rise in expenditure on transfers to the unemployed (30.9%) and expenditure on other transfers to individuals and households (29.1%), within which free meals for secondary school students were introduced in September and free kindergarten care for the second child in a family. Strong growth (18.0%) was also recorded for family benefits and parental allowances, given the increases in the number of beneficiaries as well as in their bases (wages). In January, growth of expenditure on pensions was 9.7%, while expenditure on social security transfers was modest (4.1%); expenditure on sickness benefits even declined (-0.8). Expenditure on interest payments declined by 6.6% in January. Payments to the EU budget were also significantly lower than in January last year. According to the first non-consolidated data for February, state budget revenue declined by 6.4% y-o-y in the first 12 The consolidated balance (according to the cash flow methodology) includes revenues and expenditures of state and local government budgets, and revenues and expenditures of the pension and health funds. Figure 30: Taxes and social security contributions -Value added tax -Excise duties Source: PPA; calculations by IMAD, (the figures were adjusted to match the given period) two months of 2009, while state budget expenditure concurrently increased by 17.8%. The state government deficit climbed to EUR 290 m in the first two months. The health fund also posted a deficit (EUR 33 m) at the end of the first two months, given that revenue increased by 7.3% and expenditure by 25.3%. With the transfer from the state budget in the amount of EUR 193 m, the pension fund was balanced at the end of the first two months; revenue and expenditure rose by 8.8%. The total balance of local government budgets was also negative in January, when local government budgets posted a deficit of EUR 16 m, given that revenue declined by 15.5% and expenditure increased by 17.2% y-o-y. Slovenian Economic Mirror, February 2009 23 Current Economic Trends Figure 31: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 18 16 es 14 TO ar er va 12 ni vo 10 £ tn o 8 £ m _c 6 5 or 4 O -Total revenues -Total expenditures Amending the Republic of Slovenia Budget for 2008 and 2009 Implementation Act, which introduces solutions to enhance the absorption of EU funds. Absorption is to be accelerated by enabling advance payments from EU funds. If determined that cohesion policy funds are not used in line with the planned dynamics and set goals, the government will be able, on a request from the managing authority, to reallocate the rights to use not only the earmarked EU funds, but also the funds for national participation. In line with the European Commission recommendations, at the end of March, the government office for regional policy launched a media campaign for the promotion of the European Cohesion Policy for operational programmes from the financial 2007-2013 perspective; the deadline for the implementation of cohesion policy programmes under the previous financial perspective has been extended to the end of 2010, and for structural funds to the end of June 2009. O < ^ O Source: MF; valculations by IMAD. 2 0 Slovenia's contribution to the EU budget amounted to EUR 32.4 m in March. In the first three months as a whole, Slovenia had already paid nearly one third of all funds it is bound to pay into the EU budget in 2009 according to the approved supplementary budget. Based on the supplementary budget, Slovenia's obligations to the EU budget increased by EUR 52.9 m with regard to the adopted budget, as a result of the adopted EU budget for 2009 and a new system of own resources.13 Slovenia received EUR 21.6 m from the EU budget. More than half came from funds under the Common Agricultural Policy, mainly for rural development programmes. Slightly less than 30% was funded by the pre-accession ISPA programme, and slightly more than 15% from the structural funds; within that, two thirds were from the European Social Fund and one third from the Regional Development Fund. Slovenia did not receive any funding under the Cohesion Policy in March. The first three months of 2008 still show poor absorption of European funds, which is expected to improve in the second part of the year. Along with the supplementary budget, the National Assembly also adopted the Act 13 In March, the Council Decision of 7 June 2007 on the system of the European Communities' own resources (2007/436/EC, Euratom) entered into force with retroactive effect from 1 January 2007, along with a new regulation on the system of own resources. The most important changes related to the adjustment of the system are a reduction of the call-in rate for VAT-based own resources to 0.30%, gross reductions in annual GNI-based contributions of the Netherlands and Sweden for 2007-2013 and full participation of the UK in financing costs of enlargement, except in certain cases as stipulated by the Decision, with a phased introduction in 2009 and 2010. The Decision also determines new ceilings of GNI-based contributions and adjustments in case of modifications to the ESA 95, which entail a significant change in the level of GNI. 24 Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2009 Current Economic Trends selected topics 26 Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2009 Selected Topics Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2009 27 Selected Topics Possible Measures in Response to the Financial and Economic Crisis - Unemployment Benefits In response to the financial and economic crisis, numerous European countries are implementing measures to increase the social security of the most vulnerable population groups, including the unemployed. In the period of strong economic growth and low unemployment, it was relatively easy for the unemployed to find jobs. Being unemployed for relatively short periods of time, they could more easily survive on low employment benefits which were also meant to stimulate workers to quickly find new jobs. However, in a time of crisis, unemployment increases at a rapid pace and people remain jobless for increasingly longer periods of time, which makes it harder to subsist on low unemployment benefits. In Slovenia, a particularly vulnerable group is the young unemployed who receive the lowest unemployment benefits and that for an extremely short period of time. Within the framework of integrated flexicurity policies, the EC's report "Flexicurity in Times of Crisis"13 highlights the importance of implementing measures to support the most vulnerable groups. The EC stresses that, in light of the growing number of the unemployed, it is especially important to maintain an appropriate level of social security benefits for groups that are hit the hardest by the crisis. Among possible measures, it cites extended coverage (increase in the number of recipients) or a longer duration of unemployment benefits. In the "Inventory of Member States Policy Responses to the Crisis in the Field of Employment and Social Policies,"14 the EC states that some Member States are expanding the eligibility for full or earnings-related benefits to persons with a short employment history (France, Finland, Portugal). Certain Member States are providing an allowance to compensate workers in part-time employment seeking full-time contracts (Portugal), or to cover the lost earnings of workers working short time due to the crisis. Many Member States are extending either the length of benefit eligibility (Lithuania, Portugal, Romania) or the amount received (Belgium, Bulgaria, France, Portugal). Some countries are also extending the scope of unemployment insurance in favour of young people whose fixed-term employment contracts expired (France) and some have introduced "partial" unemployment (France). In Slovenia, the unemployment benefit is regulated by the EUIA,15 under which the right to cash benefit may be claimed by an insured person whose employment contract with one or more employers lasted at least 12 months during the last 18 months prior to its termination, provided that general requirements are satisfied. The cash benefit assessment 13 Flexicurity in Times of Crisis, EMCO/16/260309/EN. 14 Inventory of Member States Policy Responses to the Crisis in the Field of Employment and Social Policies, EMCO/04/160209/ EN-rev. 15 Employment and Unemployment Insurance Act. basis is the average monthly wage earned by the insured person in 12 months prior to unemployment. The cash benefit totals 70% of the assessment basis for the first three months and 60% in the subsequent months. The duration of the right to cash benefit shall not exceed: 3 months for insurance of 1 to 5 years; 6 months for insurance of 5 to 15 years; 9 months for insurance of 15 to 25 years; 12 months for insurance of over 25 years; 18 months for insured persons older than 50 years and for insurance over 25 years; 24 months for insured persons older than 55 years and for insurance of over 25 years. A comparison of possible unemployment benefit durations by countries shows that the unemployed in Slovenia are eligible for unemployment benefits for a shorter time than in most other European countries. The comparison shows that in Slovenia the unemployed receive unemployment benefits for a shorter time than the unemployed in most other European countries. Altogether 15 out of 31 countries have longer benefit durations for all the abovestated six categories, and 22 for the first four categories. Slovenia ranks lowest for the first category ('insurance of 1 to 5 years'), with the duration of eligibility for benefits of only three months. Among 31 countries, the time of receiving unemployment benefits is only shorter in Hungary and Malta. The condition under the EUIA which regulates the right to cash unemployment benefit is very tough, particularly on people on fixed-term employment contracts many of whom are young. For example, a person who has been on a fixed-term contract for less than 12 months (it may be his/her first job) and was unemployed for 9 months before that job, is not entitled to any cash unemployment benefits after his/her employment contract expires. Various authors16 state that unemployment insurance systems that are more universal and less rigorously bound to the principles of insurance offer better protection for atypical workers. For example, fixed-term employees are disadvantaged if the payment benefit is strongly tied to the length of time worked. This is also characteristic of the Slovenian unemployment insurance system, which is insurance-based. The comparison thus reveals that as part of anti-crisis measures, it might be worth considering an extension of the duration of entitlement to cash benefits for young insured persons or the unemployed, particularly for the first category of insured persons (insurance of 1 to 5 years), who are eligible for cash benefits for only 3 months. The conditions to obtain the right to cash benefit should be loosened as well, to cover workers with atypical and uncertain forms of employment, including the employees on fixed-term employment contracts. 16 Schulze Buschoff K., Protsch P.: (A-)typical and (in-)secure? Social protection and "non-standard" forms of employment in Europe. International Social Security Review, Vol. 61, 4/2008) Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2009 28 Selected Topics Table 9: Duration of eligibility to unemployment benefit compared with Slovenia Country Longer Shorter Luxembourg for all categories of insured persons Ireland for insurance of 1 to 5 yearslncluding insurance of over 25 years for insured persons older than 50 and 55 years and insurance over 25 years Netherlands for all categories of insured persons Austria for all categories of insured persons Sweden for insurance of 1 to 5 yearsincluding insurance of over 25 years for insured persons older than 50 and 55 years and insurance over 25 years Denmark for all categories of insured persons Belgium for all categories of insured persons Finland for all categories of insured persons United Kingdom for all categories of insured persons Germany for all categories of insured persons France for all categories of insured persons Spain for all categories of insured persons Italy for all categories of insured persons Greece for all categories of insured persons Cyprus for insurance of 1 to 5 years for other categories of insured persons Czech Republic for insurance of 1 to 5 years for other categories of insured persons Malta for all categories of insured persons Portugal for all categories of insured persons Estonia for insurance of 1 to 5 yearsincluding insurance of over 25 years for insured persons older than 50 and 55 years and insurance over 25 years Slovakia for insurance of 1 to 5 years for other categories of insured persons Hungary for all categories of insured persons Lithuania for insurance of 1 to 5 years for other categories of insured persons Latvia for insurance of 1 to 5 years for other categories of insured persons Poland for insurance of 1 to 5 years for other categories of insured persons Romania for insurance of 1 to 5 years including insurance of over 25 years for insured persons older than 50 and 55 years and insurance over 25 years Bulgaria for insurance of 1 to 5 yearsincluding insurance of over 25 years for insured persons older than 50 and 55 years and for insurance of over 25 years Norway for all categories of insured persons Iceland for all categories of insured persons Switzerland for insurance of 1 to 5 yearsincluding insurance of over 25 years for insured persons older than 50 and 55 years and insurance of over 25 years Liechtenstein for insurance of 1 to 5 yearsincluding insurance of over 25 years for insured persons older than 50 and 55 years and insurance of over 25 years Source: MISSOC - Social protection systems in Member States as per 1 July 2008. Note: The starting point for the comparison is the unemployment benefit duration for the above-mentioned six categories of insured persons in Slovenia compared with benefit durations for similar categories of insured or unemployed persons elsewhere in Europe. The EU Member States are ranked by GDP per capita in PPP in 2007 (Source: IMAD, Development Report 2008) from the country with the highest to the country with the lowest value. Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2009 29 Selected Topics Possible Measures in Response to the Financial and Economic Crisis -Shortening Working Time Shortening of the working time may be one form of adjusting to the changed situation on markets and to the crisis. The purpose of promoting shorter working hours is to keep jobs despite a temporary decline in demand. Certain countries have thus decided to support employment contracts for shorter working time, compensating for the lost hours in different ways, even though some economists view this measure as costly and inefficient in the long run. In its survey of measures implemented by the EU Member States in the field of employment and social policies in response to the crisis, the European Commission states that this measure has thus far been implemented in Germany, Austria, Belgium, France, the Netherlands, Poland, Slovenia and Slovakia. How some of these countries are implementing this measure is presented in the further text. Germany has a long tradition of social partnership agreements on the use of various working time flexibility instruments. In Germany, the implementation of a federal scheme supporting shorter working hours dates back to 1990, when this measure was instituted to retain employment and provide training after the unification of Germany into a single state. In the present economic crisis, this programme is intended for enterprises deciding to move workers to shorter working hours outside the provisions of the collective agreements. After exhausting all possibilities for flexible working time provided by the collective agreement, enterprises can apply for subsidies from "the short time working fund." Enterprises are eligible for subsidies: (i) if they would have to reduce employment by one-third and wages by 10%; (ii) if the reduction in hours results from a shortage of orders; and (iii) after having reached agreement with the works council. Under this scheme, employers are subsidised in the amount of 60-67% of employees' wages. Employees keep all their rights deriving from the health and pension systems, as employers are obliged to pay employers' social security contributions for employees receiving the benefit, and the state pays employees' social security contributions for the whole wage. The state also supports enterprises that provide additional training to employees working shorter hours. The period of eligibility to receive benefits for shorter working time was extended from 12 to 18 months in January 2009 and this measure is in force until the end of 2009. The state supports the shortening of working hours instead of layoffs by refunding one half of employers' social security contributions. For enterprises which provide workers with the possibility of further education and training, the state refunds all of the employers' social contributions. Under a special programme for training workers on shorter hours, Germany simultaneously co-funds the training costs in the amount of 25%-80%; this programme is co-financed by the European Social Fund. Austria introduced a similar system as Germany, although it is somewhat more restrictive. Support for the employer is limited up to a maximum of 6 months. The system will be in force until the end of 2010. The duration of the support was initially limited to a maximum of three months, but was extended in February of this year. Workers can now also obtain grants for training. The Netherlands broadened the scheme whereby enterprises are assisted from public unemployment funds, and extended the coverage under the regulation on short-time work from situations of force majeure (flood, fire) to enterprises affected by the financial and economic crisis. Expecting only a temporary decline in demand, enterprises are willing to retain workers if the loss of their income is compensated from public unemployment funds. To qualify for the compensation of the loss of income, enterprises must prove that they experienced a fall in profits of 30% in the last two months before applying for the financial support. Enterprises are eligible for the compensation for the loss of income for a period of 6-24 weeks. The compensation for temporary unemployment accounts for three quarters of the employee's wage in the first two months, and 70% thereafter. Only permanent employees are eligible for this compensation, for a maximum period of 24 months. France gives subsidies for work hours lost covering 50%-80% of hourly gross wages. In most sectors, the government subsidises 800 hours lost per worker per year, and 1000 hours per worker per day in the textile, clothing and footwear and automobile industries. In 2009, France also introduced partial unemployment (eligibility for partial unemployment benefit for workers working less than 18 hours per week. Slovenia also adopted the Act on Partial Subsidising of Full-Time Jobs, which should be revamped and upgraded to improve the efficiency of targeting. Under this act, enterprises are eligible for a subsidy of EUR 60-120 per month per employee included in the short-time working scheme. Subsidies should not only be aimed at keeping jobs but should also give enterprises and individuals a possibility to restructure. It would be thus sensible to use the "non-working" time of employees for education and training to increase their possibilities to find employment in case of a dismissal as a result of restructuring or closing down of the enterprise. Compared with other countries, the subsidy in Slovenia is relatively low and should be increased, while at the same time clearer rules should be set for determining eligibility and proving that troubles are related to the financial and economic crisis. 30 Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2009 Selected Topics statistical appendix 32 Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2009 Statistical Appendix Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2009 33 Statistical Appendix MAIN INDICATORS 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Spring forecast 2009 estimate forecast forecast GDP (real growth rates, in %) 4.3 4.3 5.9 6.8 3.5 -4.0 1.0 2.7 GDP in EUR million (current prices and current exchange rate) 27,073 28,704 31,008 34,471 37,126 36,598 37,427 39,266 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices and current exchange rate) 13,599 14,346 15,446 17,076 18,204 18,015 18,377 19,239 GDP per capita (PPS)1 18,700 19,600 20,700 22,200 23,100 - - - GDP per capita (PPS EU27=100)1 86 87 88 89 92 - - - Gross national income (current prices and current exchange rate) 26,760 28,460 30,640 33,792 36,299 35,736 36,314 38,074 Gross national disposable income (current prices and current exchange rate) 26,716 28,316 30,424 33,531 36,018 35,598 36,236 38,000 Rate of registered unemployment 10.3 10.2 9.4 7.7 6.7 8.9 10.3 10.2 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 6.3 6.5 6.0 4.9 4.4 6.0 7.0 7.0 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 4.0 4.5 4.3 3.7 0.6 1.5 2.8 3.1 Inflation,2 year average 3.6 2.5 2.5 3.6 5.7 0.4 1.6 2.6 Inflation,2 end of the year 3.2 2.3 2.8 5.6 2.1 1.4 2.2 3.0 INTERNATIONAL TRADE - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS Exports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 12.4 10.6 12.5 13.8 3.3 -8.6 1.7 5.4 Exports of goods 12.8 10.3 13.4 13.1 1.0 -10.2 1.0 4.9 Exports of services 10.9 12.0 8.6 17.0 13.9 -2.1 4.4 7.0 Imports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 13.3 6.6 12.2 15.7 3.5 -10.3 1.6 5.2 Imports of goods 14.6 6.8 12.7 15.1 3.4 -11.5 1.1 5.0 Imports of services 5.6 5.5 8.8 19.7 4.5 -2.6 4.3 6.1 Current account balance, in EUR million -720 -498 -771 -1,455 -2,180 -809 -1,311 -1,528 As a per cent share relative to GDP -2.6 -1.7 -2.5 -4.2 -5.9 -2.2 -3.5 -3.9 Gross external debt, in EUR million 15,343 20,496 24,067 34,752 38,997 38,1574 - As a per cent share relative to GDP 56.7 71.4 77.6 100.8 105.0 - - - Ratio of USD to EUR 1.242 1.244 1.254 1.371 1.46 1.27 1.27 1.27 DOMESTIC DEMAND - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) 2.7 2.6 2.9 5.0 2.2 -0.6 1.0 2.0 As a % of GDP* 55.0 54.4 53.0 52.2 52.7 53.2 53.4 53.3 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) 3.4 3.3 4.1 2.5 3.7 3.2 3.8 3.2 As a % of GDP* 18.9 19.0 18.8 17.7 17.9 19.6 20.8 21.1 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) 5.6 3.8 10.4 11.9 6.2 -12.0 1.0 4.0 As a % of GDP* 24.9 25.3 26.3 27.5 28.0 25.0 25.1 25.5 Sources of data: SORS, BS, Eurostat-New Cronos, estimate, calculations and forecasts by IMAD. Notes: 1Measured in purchasing power standard; 2Consumer price index; 3Balance of payments statistics (exports F.O.B., imports F.O.B.); real growth rates are adjusted for inter currency changes and changes in prices on foreign markets; 4End February 2009; *Shares GDP are calculated for GDP in current prices at fixed exchange rate (EUR=239.64). Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2009 34 Statistical Appendix PRODUCTION 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 1 2 3 4 5 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D 5.7 7.2 -1.3 8.5 7.5 7.5 5.3 2.2 4.2 -0.5 -10.7 - 8.8 9.0 8.0 13.0 4.1 B Mining and quarrying 7.5 5.5 0.2 5.9 18.5 8.1 -7.3 9.2 -4.1 -1.4 -2.3 - -22.3 5.7 40.3 28.4 12.5 C Manufacturing 6.2 8.5 -1.5 10.0 8.8 8.2 7.2 2.4 4.3 -0.4 -11.8 - 10.3 10.8 9.0 14.4 5.2 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 -1.0 -11.1 2.1 -8.1 -14.8 -5.0 -15.9 -2.3 8.2 -1.1 4.5 - 0.2 -11.9 -13.1 -10.9 -16.1 CONSTRUCTION,2 real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total 15.7 18.5 15.7 43.8 32.6 16.2 0.2 32.5 17.0 15.7 4.2 - 42.9 42.3 45.7 38.5 49.8 Buildings 17.1 14.3 11.5 22.2 31.0 7.3 4.2 37.8 7.3 11.5 -2.0 - 28.6 12.3 26.2 24.9 55.2 Civil engineering 14.6 21.9 18.9 70.0 33.8 23.3 -2.6 28.0 24.3 18.6 8.9 - 59.0 84.1 67.6 51.3 46.0 TRANSPORT, tonne-km in m, y-o-y growth rates, % Tonne-km in road transport 9.8 13.4 18.4 7.0 0.1 30.2 19.1 26.7 23.5 7.7 17.2 - - - - - - Tonne-km in rail transport 3.9 6.8 -2.3 14.9 12.1 5.8 -3.7 -5.3 -2.9 2.9 -3.6 - - - - - - Distributive trades, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* 6.3 9.7 10.1 6.0 8.3 12.3 11.8 15.7 13.1 10.5 2.3 - 1.9 6.0 9.5 8.9 9.5 Real turnover in retail trade 2.7 6.1 12.2 3.4 3.2 7.8 9.6 14.0 15.5 12.7 7.2 -5.0 -0.2 2.2 7.7 3.6 3.4 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles 17.8 19.2 6.2 12.8 21.3 24.8 17.9 22.0 9.6 5.6 -9.9 -24.4 7.5 15.8 14.4 22.3 24.6 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade 10.5 16.1 17.1 19.6 15.0 15.1 15.2 20.7 23.9 20.9 4.8 - 19.6 19.0 20.2 21.7 15.5 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, % Total, overnight stays 2.0 7.0 1.8 4.8 10.1 6.8 5.5 4.2 1.0 1.8 0.6 -7.4 1.7 7.2 5.4 19.7 7.6 Domestic tourists, overnight stays 1.9 4.9 5.2 0.5 13.7 2.3 5.5 4.8 4.6 4.7 7.2 0.8 -8.4 5.4 2.3 23.4 8.6 Foreign tourists, overnight stays 2.0 8.4 -0.5 9.0 7.9 9.8 5.5 3.6 -1.3 0.1 -4.8 -15.0 8.9 9.8 8.4 17.6 7.0 Turnover in hotels and restaurants 6.1 0.4 -4.1 -1.4 -0.5 2.3 0.9 -2.7 -2.8 -4.9 -5.9 - -3.1 -2.0 0.5 -0.8 -2.0 AGRICULTURE, y-o-y growth rates, % Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EUR m 106.7 492.2 529.9 101.3 109.7 120.8 160.3 117.9 125.6 134.1 152.3 - 32.2 31.1 37.9 37.5 38.4 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**) Sentiment indicator 10 13 2 15 15 13 11 10 8 4 -14 -29 15 15 14 15 16 Confidence indicator - in manufacturing 10 12 -5 13 13 11 11 8 0 -8 -20 -29 12 14 12 13 14 - in construction 4 17 3 19 21 15 13 14 10 3 -17 -41 14 20 22 21 22 - in services 27 29 22 30 30 30 26 30 27 25 6 -14 31 29 30 32 28 - in retail trade 22 27 22 23 26 29 29 29 29 26 5 -14 20 26 24 27 26 Consumer confidence indicator -14 -11 -20 -8 -7 -10 -18 -20 -16 -16 -28 -40 -8 -9 -8 -10 -4 Source of data: SORS. Notes: 1Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. *Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels; **Seasonally adjusted data. Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2009 35 Statistical Appendix 2007 2008 2009 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 6.1 9.7 9.3 3.8 11.0 3.0 1.3 0.5 8.8 -2.0 10.4 -0.2 2.7 -2.1 -5.8 5.7 -3.0 -14.7 -15.8 -20.0 -21.2 - - 15.3 3.8 30.6 -7.2 -0.9 -5.9 -16.4 18.9 14.1 -1.1 3.8 -11.8 -4.2 22.9 -29.4 10.4 -0.8 -16.3 16.9 -8.6 -4.2 - - 7.4 10.6 9.6 4.7 12.7 4.4 4.0 0.7 9.3 -2.0 10.8 -0.1 2.4 -2.5 -5.2 5.8 -3.1 -15.7 -18.1 -21.9 -23.1 - - -17.4 -5.1 -1.6 -8.2 -10.9 -14.4 -21.5 -6.3 1.2 -1.2 8.1 4.2 12.2 0.2 -5.5 1.9 1.0 4.7 7.5 -5.7 -2.0 - - 14.9 17.3 33.5 2.3 7.3 6.2 -14.3 39.4 40.5 21.4 22.8 13.8 15.4 15.9 8.6 22.4 15.1 -2.3 -3.6 -26.9 -25.0 - - 17.2 16.7 17.1 -8.7 0.5 18.4 -5.4 56.3 44.8 18.6 10.5 3.1 8.9 0.2 10.7 24.2 12.0 -11.5 -6.9 -32.7 -17.4 - - 13.1 17.7 48.5 10.5 11.7 -2.3 -21.0 23.9 36.8 23.8 32.4 21.7 20.4 28.0 7.0 21.3 17.0 5.4 -0.6 -20.3 -31.8 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 6.5 10.6 12.9 13.4 16.8 11.7 7.0 18.1 23.8 7.2 17.4 11.8 10.3 12.6 5.8 12.8 2.8 1.0 3.1 -6.0 -15.4 - - 2.5 4.5 6.3 12.8 11.0 9.5 8.5 12.8 23.8 7.0 16.2 19.1 11.4 13.4 10.8 13.8 7.3 7.0 7.1 2.8 -12.2 -5.3 - 17.2 27.3 32.7 16.0 32.7 17.7 3.4 34.7 26.3 9.4 22.0 -1.1 9.0 12.3 -7.4 10.6 -7.4 -12.5 -10.1 -27.0 -23.9 -22.5 - 8.4 19.7 12.7 13.2 19.5 19.2 7.5 21.6 30.1 12.3 31.9 20.6 19.2 22.9 11.2 28.0 11.6 2.1 0.5 -15.7 -18.9 - - 6.0 6.0 9.6 3.6 4.6 8.3 4.0 2.9 9.0 0.5 -8.5 14.0 -2.4 3.6 3.2 -3.2 -2.1 -4.4 8.7 3.6 -15.2 -12.0 - 12.0 0.9 7.2 -3.7 4.2 2.6 9.6 12.1 11.7 -8.5 8.5 10.5 -2.1 1.1 8.9 3.9 6.0 4.4 11.0 9.6 -8.3 5.0 - 2.1 9.8 11.0 7.8 4.8 13.7 -0.9 -2.6 5.6 8.9 -18.3 16.2 -2.6 5.3 -0.2 -6.8 -7.4 -11.9 6.5 -0.6 -24.8 -25.0 - 1.2 0.5 4.7 1.7 1.3 0.1 1.1 -3.4 2.6 -6.7 -3.1 1.7 -6.6 -4.7 -5.6 -4.4 -3.2 -5.7 -8.4 - - - - 33.8 38.3 41.8 40.7 46.2 53.1 61.0 38.5 39.3 40.0 42.6 43.0 39.9 44.5 42.2 47.4 49.0 45.3 58.1 32.9 32.6 - - 14 15 14 11 10 10 12 10 10 11 10 8 5 5 4 3 -3 -17 -22 -28 -28 -31 -32 12 12 12 10 10 11 11 10 7 6 3 0 -3 -6 -8 -10 -15 -21 -25 -28 -29 -31 -33 21 17 16 11 12 10 18 13 12 17 13 11 7 7 0 2 -5 -16 -29 -37 -40 -47 -54 30 32 30 27 28 23 28 28 31 30 29 26 25 25 26 24 19 4 -4 -9 -14 -20 -24 26 26 27 35 28 29 31 27 28 33 29 30 27 29 26 23 23 0 -7 -11 -12 -19 -16 -8 -5 -8 -16 -17 -19 -17 -23 -20 -16 -12 -18 -19 -18 -19 -12 -17 -33 -35 -44 -38 -37 -41 Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2009 36 Statistical Appendix LABOUR MARKET 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1 2 3 4 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 910.7 925.3 942.5 919.1 923.5 924.6 934.2 937.7 940.9 942.2 949.2 918.0 919.2 920.0 921.6 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)1 824.8 854.0 879.3 841.8 852.7 856.1 865.4 870.8 879.4 881.7 885.1 838.0 841.5 845.8 849.0 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 37.7 40.4 39.7 41.8 40.8 39.9 39.2 40.8 39.9 39.2 38.9 41.7 41.7 41.9 40.8 In industry, construction 310.9 321.9 330.4 315.6 321.4 324.1 326.8 327.1 331.2 333.0 330.4 313.9 315.4 317.3 319.6 Of which: in manufacturing 221.7 223.6 222.4 222.8 223.9 223.4 224.2 224.0 224.0 222.3 219.1 222.2 222.8 223.3 223.6 in construction 69.5 78.4 87.9 72.9 77.5 80.6 82.5 83.2 87.1 90.5 91.1 71.9 72.8 74.1 76.1 In services 476.2 491.6 509.1 484.4 490.5 492.1 499.4 503.0 508.3 509.4 515.9 482.4 484.3 486.6 488.7 Of which: in public administration 50.4 50.3 51.0 49.9 50.3 50.4 50.6 50.8 51.0 51.1 51.0 49.9 49.9 49.9 50.1 in education, health-services, social work 108.0 108.8 111.1 118.6 118.8 116.6 119.2 119.9 120.1 118.4 121.9 108.0 108.4 108.7 108.9 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 741.6 766.0 789.9 753.1 764.7 768.6 777.8 781.2 790.3 792.7 795.3 749.5 752.9 757.0 761.3 In enterprises and organisations 675.1 696.1 717.6 685.8 695.0 697.5 706.2 710.4 718.0 719.8 722.0 682.8 685.6 689.0 692.4 By those self-employed 66.5 69.9 72.3 67.3 69.8 71.1 71.6 70.8 72.2 73.0 73.2 66.7 67.3 68.0 68.9 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 83.3 87.9 89.4 88.7 87.9 87.6 87.6 89.6 89.2 88.9 89.8 88.5 88.6 88.8 87.8 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 85.8 71.3 63.2 77.3 70.9 68.4 68.8 66.8 61.4 60.5 64.1 80.0 77.7 74.2 72.6 Female 47.0 39.1 33.4 42.0 39.3 38.0 37.3 35.6 32.8 32.1 33.0 43.2 42.1 40.7 40.2 By age: under 26 18.2 11.9 9.1 14.0 11.6 10.3 11.7 10.3 8.4 7.7 10.0 15.1 14.2 12.8 12.2 aged over 50 21.8 22.2 21.9 22.4 22.2 22.1 22.2 22.6 21.9 21.7 21.6 22.4 22.5 22.4 22.3 Unskilled 33.7 28.0 25.4 30.4 27.7 27.0 26.9 26.8 24.6 24.3 25.8 31.6 30.7 29.0 28.2 For more than 1 year 41.9 36.5 32.3 38.8 36.7 35.5 35.0 34.0 32.5 31.9 31.0 39.6 39.0 37.9 37.4 Those receiving benefits 22.7 16.6 14.4 19.1 16.8 15.8 14.7 15.0 13.6 13.9 15.1 19.9 19.1 18.3 17.2 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 9.4 7.7 6.7 8.4 7.7 7.4 7.4 7.1 6.5 6.4 6.8 8.7 8.4 8.1 7.9 Male 7.7 6.2 5.6 6.9 6.1 5.9 6.0 6.0 5.4 5.4 5.8 7.2 7.0 6.6 6.3 Female 11.5 9.6 8.1 10.3 9.6 9.3 9.0 8.6 7.9 7.8 7.9 10.6 10.3 10.0 9.8 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE 5.2 21.5 13.7 8.7 5.4 0.6 6.7 5.7 4.2 1.9 1.9 6.7 1.2 0.8 1.6 New unemployed first-job seekers 18.6 14.7 12.5 2.9 2.4 2.3 7.2 2.2 1.8 1.9 6.5 1.3 0.8 0.9 1.0 Redundancies 63.8 52.5 53.0 15.4 11.6 12.6 12.9 12.5 10.7 12.5 17.4 7.6 3.8 4.0 4.0 Registered unemployed who found employment 57.4 49.1 41.7 14.8 12.1 11.3 10.9 12.4 9.7 9.9 9.6 5.1 4.4 5.2 4.2 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 39.2 28.0 26.1 7.6 6.9 6.2 7.4 6.4 6.3 5.9 7.4 2.0 2.5 3.1 2.4 Increase in number of work permits for foreigners 7.8 15.3 24.6 3.9 4.9 4.3 2.2 6.0 9.5 7.0 2.1 0.3 1.2 2.5 3.6 Retirements2 20.6 20.7 22.5 5.2 4.7 5.0 5.9 5.4 4.8 6.3 6.1 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.7 Deaths2 2.4 2.4 2.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Others who found employment2 24.8 14.4 16.0 14.3 9.1 4.5 9.9 8.8 3.2 4.4 6.0 9.1 3.5 1.8 0.8 REGISTERED VACANCIES3 19.0 20.2 20.0 20.5 21.0 20.4 19.1 21.6 21.1 21.5 15.9 20.0 17.8 23.6 20.6 For a fixed term, in % 75.3 76.5 74.5 76.7 77.5 77.2 74.4 73.0 74.0 76.5 74.7 77.1 75.1 77.5 76.9 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 48.3 60.2 81.1 52.6 59.3 63.0 65.8 68.7 79.0 86.3 90.5 51.0 52.2 54.7 58.3 As % of labour force 5.3 6.5 8.6 5.7 6.4 6.8 7.0 7.3 8.4 9.2 9.5 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.3 NEW JOBS 155.9 160.0 162.7 39.1 40.7 38.7 41.5 40.9 41.0 42.7 38.1 13.5 11.6 13.9 14.4 Sources of data: SORS, PDII, ESS. Notes: 1In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. Data for previous years dating back to January 2000 have also been calculated according to the new methodology. 2Estimated by IMAD, based on data by PDII and ESS; 3according to ESS. Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2009 37 Statistical Appendix 2007 2008 2009 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 923.6 925.4 924.5 923.1 926.0 934.0 935.8 932.8 936.6 937.9 938.5 939.1 940.8 942.7 941.4 940.5 944.6 950.7 950.3 946.5 946.2 945.9 852.9 856.2 854.4 854.6 859.4 864.5 867.4 864.4 867.3 870.9 874.2 876.6 879.6 882.0 879.9 879.8 885.3 888.1 886.9 880.3 872.2 868.7 40.8 40.8 39.9 39.9 39.9 39.3 39.3 39.2 40.7 40.8 40.8 39.9 39.9 39.8 39.3 39.2 39.2 38.9 38.9 38.8 37.8 37.8 321.5 323.1 323.5 323.6 325.2 327.1 327.9 325.3 325.8 327.1 328.5 330.0 331.2 332.6 332.5 332.5 333.9 333.7 331.5 325.9 320.1 317.4 224.0 224.0 223.5 223.1 223.5 224.4 224.7 223.5 223.7 224.0 224.2 224.1 223.9 224.0 222.7 222.2 222.2 221.3 219.8 216.3 211.8 209.6 77.5 78.9 79.9 80.5 81.5 82.5 83.1 81.8 82.1 83.1 84.2 85.8 87.1 88.4 89.7 90.2 91.6 92.2 91.5 89.5 88.3 87.7 490.6 492.3 491.0 491.1 494.3 498.1 500.3 499.9 500.9 503.1 504.9 506.8 508.6 509.6 508.1 508.1 512.2 515.5 516.5 515.6 514.4 513.6 50.3 50.4 50.4 50.4 50.4 50.5 50.5 50.7 50.9 50.9 50.7 50.9 50.9 51.1 50.9 51.0 51.2 51.1 51.1 50.8 51.2 51.0 109.0 109.1 107.9 107.6 109.1 109.7 109.9 109.7 110.3 110.8 111.0 111.2 111.0 110.9 109.7 109.4 111.4 112.0 112.5 112.6 112.8 113.2 764.9 768.1 767.0 767.1 771.6 777.0 779.7 776.7 777.9 781.3 784.3 787.6 790.5 792.8 791.1 790.9 796.1 798.5 797.0 790.2 783.0 779.5 695.1 697.5 696.2 696.1 700.1 705.2 707.7 705.9 707.8 710.5 713.0 715.8 718.2 720.2 718.5 718.2 722.6 724.6 723.4 718.1 712.6 709.7 69.8 70.6 70.8 71.0 71.5 71.8 72.0 70.8 70.2 70.8 71.3 71.8 72.3 72.6 72.7 72.7 73.5 74.0 73.5 72.2 70.4 69.7 88.0 88.1 87.3 87.5 87.8 87.5 87.7 87.7 89.4 89.6 89.9 89.1 89.2 89.2 88.8 88.9 89.2 89.6 89.9 90.0 89.2 89.3 70.7 69.3 70.1 68.5 66.7 69.5 68.4 68.4 69.2 67.0 64.3 62.4 61.2 60.7 61.6 60.7 59.3 62.6 63.4 66.2 73.9 77.2 39.2 38.5 39.3 38.1 36.7 38.0 37.1 36.7 36.9 35.7 34.3 33.5 32.6 32.4 33.0 32.3 31.1 32.7 32.6 33.7 37.2 38.5 11.5 11.1 11.1 10.4 9.5 12.2 11.6 11.2 11.1 10.3 9.5 8.8 8.4 8.1 8.1 7.8 7.3 9.8 9.9 10.2 11.7 12.3 22.3 22.0 22.2 22.1 22.0 22.1 22.1 22.3 22.8 22.7 22.3 22.0 21.9 21.8 21.9 21.7 21.4 21.4 21.5 21.9 23.6 24.1 27.7 27.1 27.2 27.0 26.7 27.0 26.8 27.1 27.6 26.9 25.9 25.0 24.6 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.9 25.5 27.0 30.1 31.4 36.8 36.0 35.8 35.6 35.0 35.3 35.0 34.7 34.7 34.0 33.3 32.7 32.5 32.2 32.1 31.8 31.6 31.4 30.9 30.8 31.2 31.0 16.9 16.3 16.3 16.0 15.2 14.8 14.5 14.7 15.6 15.1 14.2 13.7 13.6 13.4 13.9 13.9 13.7 14.1 14.4 16.8 20.9 22.8 7.7 7.5 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.1 6.9 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.6 6.7 7.0 7.8 8.2 6.1 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.8 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.0 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.6 5.7 6.1 6.9 7.3 9.6 9.4 9.6 9.3 9.0 9.2 9.0 8.9 8.9 8.6 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.8 8.0 7.8 7.5 7.9 7.9 8.1 9.0 9.3 2.0 1.8 -0.9 -1.4 2.9 8.0 1.8 -3.0 3.8 1.4 0.6 0.6 1.7 2.0 -1.3 -0.9 4.1 6.1 -0.5 -3.8 -0.3 -0.2 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.0 5.3 1.2 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 4.6 1.2 0.8 1.2 1.0 4.0 3.7 4.9 3.5 4.2 4.5 4.3 4.1 5.8 3.4 3.3 3.6 3.4 3.6 4.6 3.4 4.5 5.2 5.5 6.6 10.4 6.9 4.1 3.7 3.0 3.8 4.4 4.3 4.1 2.5 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.6 3.2 2.9 2.3 3.1 4.5 4.0 3.2 2.4 3.2 2.7 2.5 2.0 1.6 1.9 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.2 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.6 2.0 1.7 2.0 1.6 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.2 0.7 1.9 1.7 -0.5 2.2 1.6 0.5 1.7 0.3 0.2 -0.2 2.4 3.8 4.2 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.9 1.9 1.7 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.6 2.4 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.6 2.2 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.8 2.3 1.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 3.3 5.0 -0.7 -0.9 6.1 5.5 4.6 -0.3 7.1 1.6 0.0 -0.4 1.7 2.0 -0.8 -0.7 6.0 4.3 2.7 -1.1 1.3 1.9 19.3 23.1 18.8 19.7 22.8 24.4 18.7 14.2 22.4 22.8 19.8 21.6 21.6 20.2 19.8 20.1 24.7 19.7 15.7 12.3 13.7 12.2 79.1 76.6 78.4 77.1 76.5 76.4 75.2 69.8 71.9 73.0 74.2 72.7 74.4 74.9 76.9 76.8 76.0 74.9 75.6 73.1 72.0 75.0 60.1 59.5 61.7 63.3 63.9 65.6 65.9 66.1 65.8 68.3 72.1 76.3 79.1 81.6 83.8 86.7 88.6 90.3 90.4 90.7 90.7 91.2 6.5 6.4 6.7 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.0 7.3 7.7 8.1 8.4 8.7 8.9 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.6 13.4 13.0 11.8 9.9 16.9 18.2 13.6 9.7 14.5 13.0 13.4 15.4 13.1 12.5 12.7 10.4 19.6 17.8 11.4 8.9 10.2 8.1 Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2009 38 Statistical Appendix WAGES AND INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1 2 3 4 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, y-o-y growth rates, % Activity - Total 4.8 5.9 8.3 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.7 7.8 8.6 9.9 7.1 6.4 4.8 5.0 5.9 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 5.6 8.3 9.2 6.8 7.4 7.0 11.4 10.3 9.3 10.8 6.7 9.4 5.8 5.3 9.2 B Mining and quarrying 4.5 6.4 13.6 3.2 3.8 5.3 12.6 9.4 13.8 16.0 14.8 3.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 C Manufacturing 5.6 7.0 7.6 6.0 6.1 7.0 8.6 8.2 9.7 9.3 3.4 8.0 5.4 4.7 7.2 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 5.5 6.2 9.4 2.3 4.9 5.2 11.1 9.3 10.1 9.8 8.8 3.6 1.9 1.5 2.8 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 3.7 7.1 7.8 5.5 5.6 6.8 10.0 8.3 9.1 9.0 5.2 6.6 6.6 3.3 7.7 F Constrution 6.4 6.6 7.6 7.2 6.7 5.7 6.7 7.7 9.6 9.1 4.3 8.6 6.3 6.7 7.7 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 5.3 7.6 7.8 8.1 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.5 9.0 8.8 6.1 9.1 6.8 8.2 8.6 H Transportation and storage 3.6 6.0 8.5 5.9 4.6 5.7 7.7 8.7 8.5 10.4 6.6 6.8 5.1 5.8 5.1 I Accommodation and food service activities 4.1 5.3 8.4 3.7 5.1 4.6 7.8 9.3 9.6 10.0 4.9 3.6 2.5 5.0 5.1 J Information and communication 3.9 5.7 7.3 7.4 5.4 5.7 4.6 6.8 7.8 8.7 6.2 10.4 7.5 4.4 6.0 K Financial and insurance activities 8.6 7.4 6.1 8.1 7.8 6.2 7.6 8.6 8.8 8.2 0.0 8.8 8.9 6.6 6.4 L Real estate activities 4.6 7.0 6.0 7.6 7.8 7.4 5.6 6.8 8.6 5.3 3.6 6.7 3.7 12.4 6.7 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 4.9 7.0 8.4 5.0 6.8 7.1 8.9 9.7 8.6 9.1 6.4 5.2 4.8 5.1 6.9 N Administrative and support service activities 2.5 7.5 9.5 4.7 5.9 9.4 9.8 8.6 11.4 10.2 8.0 4.5 4.1 5.6 5.1 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 2.9 5.1 12.2 2.5 4.9 6.5 6.4 11.1 10.8 13.2 13.7 2.6 1.7 3.2 3.9 P Education 4.8 3.9 7.0 4.8 5.6 3.1 2.4 5.5 5.8 7.7 9.0 4.9 4.5 4.9 5.4 Q Human health and social work activities 2.4 3.1 12.0 2.6 3.7 4.0 2.1 5.5 4.3 16.8 21.0 3.0 1.9 2.9 3.1 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 1.3 3.6 5.4 5.2 2.3 4.0 3.0 2.4 5.8 8.3 5.1 2.3 2.2 11.2 1.7 S Other service activities 1.5 3.3 8.1 2.2 2.9 3.0 5.1 6.6 8.6 8.5 8.8 3.6 1.2 1.8 3.0 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate,1 nominal 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.4 -1.1 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.8 Real (relative consumer prices) 0.7 2.3 2.8 1.4 1.8 2.3 3.7 4.5 4.2 2.6 -0.1 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.4 Real (relative producer prices)2 -0.6 2.4 1.0 2.7 2.2 2.4 2.2 1.5 1.4 0.2 0.8 2.9 2.8 2.3 2.1 USD/EUR 1.256 1.371 1.471 1.311 1.348 1.374 1.449 1.500 1.562 1.504 1.317 1.300 1.307 1.324 1.352 Sources of data: SORS, AP, BS, OECD Main Economic Indicators, calculations IMAD. Notes: 1Change of methodology: the calculation of domestic currency's effective exchange rate includes the currencies/prices of Slovenia's 17 trading partners (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Italy, France, Netherlands, Spain, Denmark, United Kingdom, Sweden, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, USA, Switzerland, Japan); weights are the shares of individual trading partners in Slovenian exports and imports of goods within manufacturing (5-8 SITC) in 2001-2003; exports are double weighted; a rise in the index value indicates an appreciation of domestic currency and vice versa. 2Producer prices in manufacturing activities Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2009 39 Statistical Appendix 2007 2008 2009 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 5.8 5.2 6.9 5.7 4.9 6.6 7.1 6.5 6.1 9.3 8.0 9.5 7.6 8.8 8.7 9.8 11.2 9.2 3.9 8.6 6.8 4.2 7.7 5.4 8.4 9.0 3.6 7.4 16.1 10.2 8.3 16.1 6.7 10.3 9.7 7.9 13.5 6.3 12.9 11.3 -0.1 10.2 1.1 -3.3 4.3 4.2 6.1 3.3 6.6 8.8 9.4 20.6 5.2 9.7 13.3 11.8 17.0 12.5 17.3 10.0 20.7 39.0 -4.7 16.0 10.1 5.3 6.0 5.2 7.6 7.1 6.2 8.1 9.4 8.2 6.0 10.2 8.5 11.3 8.4 9.6 11.0 6.4 10.8 6.7 -1.4 5.7 0.1 -0.5 2.4 9.5 2.0 5.0 8.5 12.1 9.9 11.8 8.4 10.2 9.3 13.2 9.6 7.8 15.3 8.3 6.2 25.2 2.2 3.2 9.4 6.1 5.5 3.7 7.7 6.1 6.8 8.2 12.6 8.5 7.2 9.8 8.1 10.7 6.8 9.8 10.5 5.5 11.3 14.0 -1.0 4.8 4.4 3.6 7.8 4.6 8.6 5.4 3.3 6.7 7.7 5.5 7.5 8.8 6.7 11.9 7.5 9.5 10.0 6.0 11.3 7.3 -1.0 7.2 1.7 -0.6 6.9 6.8 7.9 7.8 6.9 7.1 8.5 6.9 6.5 8.8 7.1 10.0 8.0 8.9 9.1 7.0 10.2 8.0 3.9 6.6 6.1 3.5 5.4 3.4 6.4 5.3 5.4 6.2 8.6 8.2 8.9 8.5 8.6 8.3 7.0 10.2 7.8 13.1 10.2 7.1 7.5 5.2 3.9 2.4 4.6 5.7 5.7 4.9 3.2 7.0 8.8 7.5 9.8 10.4 7.9 9.5 10.3 8.9 10.3 9.0 10.7 7.5 2.0 5.4 3.9 3.0 4.1 6.2 7.6 6.3 3.2 8.1 -2.6 10.1 3.3 6.4 10.5 8.9 6.1 8.3 7.9 8.1 10.3 7.8 5.5 5.4 6.9 1.8 10.1 6.8 8.9 7.7 2.2 13.8 8.0 1.8 7.4 7.9 10.6 11.8 6.4 8.5 7.1 6.3 11.4 1.2 -6.3 8.1 3.8 0.6 7.7 8.9 8.6 7.7 5.9 5.0 7.6 3.9 6.3 8.3 5.8 10.1 8.3 7.5 4.7 4.6 6.7 4.5 1.5 5.0 2.9 1.4 7.1 6.2 8.0 6.7 6.6 8.3 10.0 8.3 9.2 10.5 9.3 8.7 7.9 9.2 9.9 7.3 10.3 9.3 1.8 8.8 3.1 4.3 6.6 5.9 8.9 9.7 9.5 9.7 10.2 9.6 8.7 9.5 7.7 10.8 11.2 12.2 11.1 8.3 11.2 8.4 8.6 7.1 9.1 5.1 5.2 5.7 8.7 4.9 5.9 5.9 6.5 6.9 6.8 14.3 12.0 12.0 10.0 10.4 7.6 18.8 13.3 12.9 16.0 12.3 15.2 8.8 6.3 5.1 4.2 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.2 3.1 7.8 5.6 5.7 5.7 6.1 5.0 10.9 7.3 8.0 9.4 9.6 9.3 4.2 3.6 4.3 5.4 3.4 3.2 1.8 1.8 2.6 3.1 7.2 6.1 3.2 3.8 6.0 4.6 24.5 21.5 21.3 20.5 21.4 25.5 18.9 0.8 4.4 5.0 3.2 3.7 1.7 3.3 3.8 4.5 5.9 -2.8 3.9 6.9 6.6 4.1 11.3 9.4 10.7 -3.2 9.1 8.2 6.4 2.6 2.9 3.8 2.2 2.9 2.9 7.4 4.9 6.6 6.2 6.9 10.3 8.8 6.7 9.0 8.0 8.3 9.0 6.3 11.3 2.6 5.3 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 -0.1 -1.3 -1.7 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 1.7 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.0 3.6 3.9 3.6 4.4 4.3 4.7 4.7 3.9 3.9 3.5 2.6 1.6 0.3 -0.7 0.0 -0.1 0.5 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.4 2.4 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.7 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.7 -0.3 -0.6 0.5 2.7 2.0 2.1 1.351 1.342 1.372 1.362 1.390 1.423 1.468 1.457 1.472 1.475 1.553 1.575 1.556 1.555 1.577 1.498 1.437 1.332 1.273 1.345 1.324 1.279 Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2009 40 Statistical Appendix PRICES 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 1 2 3 4 5 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 2.5 3.6 5.7 2.3 3.0 3.6 5.4 6.6 6.6 6.1 3.3 1.8 2.7 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.9 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 2.3 7.8 10.1 3.7 6.5 8.2 12.6 14.0 12.0 9.8 4.9 3.2 4.0 3.0 3.9 6.3 6.3 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 3.7 6.5 3.2 5.5 6.0 8.0 6.5 5.4 5.0 0.7 2.1 3.0 5.5 5.4 5.6 5.7 6.2 Clothing and footwear -0.5 2.1 4.4 1.8 0.9 3.3 2.5 4.9 5.2 2.1 5.2 1.8 3.6 2.6 -0.5 -0.7 1.0 Housing, water, electricity, gas 5.3 2.6 9.7 -0.2 1.0 2.2 7.6 10.5 11.4 11.5 5.3 1.7 -0.1 -0.9 0.4 1.0 0.4 Furnishings, household equipment 4.1 4.5 5.8 5.0 5.2 3.6 4.0 4.5 5.5 6.5 6.7 6.1 5.1 5.3 4.7 4.8 5.2 Medical, pharmaceutical products -1.7 1.1 2.9 1.5 1.4 1.1 0.4 -0.5 1.7 4.9 5.8 8.7 0.9 1.4 2.3 1.4 1.1 Transport 1.3 0.3 1.9 -0.2 0.8 -0.9 1.6 2.9 2.9 4.1 -2.2 -3.7 -0.4 -0.9 0.6 0.4 0.4 Communications 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.3 2.2 1.9 0.1 -1.7 -4.3 1.4 -0.7 -0.6 -0.3 0.2 Recreation and culture 2.1 3.6 4.4 2.5 2.5 4.6 4.7 4.6 5.0 4.8 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.6 2.2 1.4 3.0 Education 3.1 1.9 5.2 1.1 0.6 2.2 3.6 4.7 5.4 4.8 6.1 5.1 0.5 1.5 1.1 -1.1 1.4 Catering services 4.5 7.3 9.6 6.9 6.6 7.0 8.7 9.3 10.0 10.4 8.7 6.3 6.9 7.1 6.7 6.6 6.8 Miscellaneous goods & services 4.1 3.6 3.9 4.2 3.1 3.7 3.4 3.9 4.5 3.8 3.4 3.8 5.0 4.7 3.0 2.9 3.1 HCPI 2.5 3.8 5.5 2.6 3.3 3.7 5.5 6.5 6.4 6.2 3.1 1.7 2.8 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.1 Core inflation (trim mean) 2.8 2.3 3.9 1.6 2.0 2.5 3.1 4.4 4.4 4.1 2.8 2.1 2.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and eneray) 1.1 2.6 4.6 1.9 1.9 2.9 3.9 4.7 4.9 4.7 4.0 3.1 2.3 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.9 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total 2.3 4.2 3.8 4.3 4.7 4.1 3.6 3.4 3.7 5.1 3.2 1.1 3.9 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.8 Domestic market 2.4 5.5 5.6 4.7 5.1 5.5 6.5 6.0 6.1 6.2 4.2 1.5 3.6 5.3 5.1 5.0 5.1 Non-domestic market 2.1 3.0 2.2 4.0 4.3 2.9 0.7 0.9 1.5 3.9 2.3 0.8 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.4 4.4 euro area 2.4 5.1 2.2 7.0 7.4 4.8 1.5 1.4 1.7 4.2 1.5 -0.6 7.0 6.8 7.4 7.7 7.7 non-euro area 1.6 -0.5 2.1 -0.7 -0.7 -0.3 -0.5 0.1 1.0 3.4 3.9 3.5 -0.4 -0.4 -1.2 -0.7 -0.8 Import price indices 5.8 4.0 1.3 7.0 6.7 2.5 0.1 -0.2 0.3 3.8 1.4 -2.1 7.8 6.6 6.7 7.0 6.8 PRICE CONTROL,1 y-o-y growth rates, % Energy prices 8.0 0.6 12.4 -2.0 -0.1 -1.6 6.2 13.1 16.9 21.1 -1.2 -12.9 -0.4 -4.6 -0.8 -0.3 -1.0 Oil products 10.3 -0.9 11.7 -4.0 -2.2 -4.3 7.4 14.8 17.4 21.1 -5.7 -16.3 -2.0 -7.5 -2.3 -2.6 -3.3 Basic utilities -2.6 -2.3 0.6 -6.3 -6.2 -3.7 8.4 1.4 1.3 -1.3 1.1 1.7 -7.4 -5.8 -5.8 -6.5 -6.0 Transport & communications 1.5 0.6 -0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 -1.3 -1.3 -1.2 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 Other controlled prices 2.6 2.9 1.8 3.0 2.6 3.0 3.0 1.4 1.7 1.7 2.4 2.4 2.4 3.3 3.4 3.1 2.4 Direct control - total 7.0 3.1 8.6 1.9 3.2 1.6 5.9 9.5 11.7 13.7 -0.2 -7.8 2.8 0.0 2.8 3.1 2.6 Source of data: SORS, calculations and estimates IMAD. Note: 1 the structure of groups varies, data published are not directly comparable to those published previously. The electricity market was liberalized on 1 July 2007. Data from July 2007 onwards are not comparable. Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2009 41 Statistical Appendix 2007 2008 2009 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 3.6 3.8 3.5 3.5 5.1 5.7 5.6 6.4 6.5 6.9 6.5 6.4 7.0 6.9 6.0 5.5 4.9 3.1 2.1 1.6 2.1 1.8 6.9 7.6 6.9 10.0 13.3 11.7 12.9 13.9 14.6 13.5 12.3 12.1 11.6 12.2 10.1 7.2 5.3 5.6 3.8 3.5 3.1 3.0 6.0 8.1 8.5 7.6 6.5 6.6 6.6 5.7 5.5 5.1 4.8 5.0 5.1 -0.2 0.5 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.7 4.0 2.4 2.7 4.1 3.1 1.8 3.5 2.1 2.9 4.8 6.7 7.0 4.6 4.1 0.8 1.7 3.7 6.1 4.6 4.8 2.3 0.6 2.3 1.7 1.9 3.2 1.4 6.7 8.2 8.0 11.7 9.6 10.4 9.3 11.4 13.4 13.6 10.4 10.5 9.0 4.8 2.4 0.8 3.0 1.2 5.7 4.5 3.3 3.0 3.6 4.1 4.3 4.0 4.3 5.2 5.7 5.7 5.2 5.9 6.4 7.3 7.0 6.7 6.5 6.5 6.7 5.1 1.7 2.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.0 -0.9 -1.2 0.5 1.4 1.7 1.9 4.5 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.4 6.7 9.5 9.8 6.9 1.5 0.9 -1.6 -1.9 0.4 2.5 1.9 2.8 2.7 3.1 2.1 2.4 4.4 4.9 3.7 3.7 2.6 -3.6 -5.4 -5.1 -2.5 -3.6 1.2 1.2 1.2 -0.7 -0.7 -0.2 1.9 1.0 2.8 2.9 2.8 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.5 -0.9 -0.9 0.0 -4.3 -3.7 -4.7 -4.6 3.3 4.4 4.8 4.5 4.9 4.6 4.7 4.1 4.9 4.9 5.4 4.4 5.3 5.6 4.9 4.0 2.8 3.2 3.6 2.8 2.8 3.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.8 7.0 7.0 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 5.0 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.3 3.2 6.4 6.5 7.0 7.6 7.9 9.6 8.6 9.2 9.4 9.4 10.1 9.9 10.1 10.7 10.4 10.0 9.7 8.8 7.7 6.5 6.3 6.0 3.2 3.3 4.0 3.8 3.0 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.7 4.4 4.5 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.7 4.2 3.8 4.0 3.4 3.6 5.1 5.7 5.7 6.4 6.4 6.6 6.2 6.2 6.8 6.9 6.0 5.6 4.8 2.9 1.8 1.4 2.1 1.6 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.7 3.3 3.2 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.7 4.0 3.6 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.0 2.4 2.0 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.7 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.9 5.1 5.3 4.9 4.7 5.1 4.7 4.5 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.2 2.8 3.1 4.6 4.4 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.5 4.4 4.9 5.5 4.8 4.2 3.3 2.2 1.9 1.1 0.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.9 6.4 6.9 6.4 6.5 5.6 5.8 6.2 6.1 5.9 6.3 6.7 5.7 5.0 4.0 3.5 2.3 1.2 0.8 4.0 3.5 3.1 2.0 1.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 1.3 0.9 0.5 1.1 2.8 3.6 4.3 4.0 3.3 2.7 1.0 1.5 1.0 -0.1 6.8 5.6 4.9 3.9 2.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.9 3.7 4.1 4.8 3.8 3.1 1.4 0.1 0.2 -0.3 -1.7 -0.5 0.0 0.3 -1.1 -0.4 -1.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.5 0.4 1.3 1.1 2.5 3.3 4.3 3.9 5.1 2.7 4.2 3.5 2.9 6.2 3.0 3.6 0.8 -0.2 0.0 0.5 -0.7 -0.1 0.1 -0.3 0.5 0.8 3.5 3.3 4.7 3.7 1.6 -1.0 -2.4 -1.3 -2.7 0.9 1.3 -2.6 -3.6 2.2 8.4 7.9 12.4 12.1 14.8 11.9 15.5 23.2 24.8 20.0 18.4 14.1 -4.3 -12.7 -15.0 -8.9 -14.6 -0.8 -0.8 -5.5 -6.6 2.1 10.3 9.8 14.0 14.1 16.4 12.6 15.3 24.1 25.5 20.0 17.7 12.2 -9.4 -18.9 -19.5 -11.2 -17.9 -6.0 -6.0 0.7 -5.7 14.3 6.5 4.8 2.8 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 -5.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.1 2.3 2.2 3.8 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.1 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.9 1.9 1.1 1.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 4.0 4.3 2.9 -2.3 3.9 7.1 6.6 9.3 8.8 10.4 8.5 10.8 15.7 16.3 12.2 12.4 9.7 -2.2 -7.8 -9.4 -5.0 -9.0 Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2009 42 Statistical Appendix BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1 2 3 4 5 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, in EUR m Current account -77' -',455 -2,055 -96 -2'6 -480 -663 -468 -432 -472 -682 '7 -'09 -3 -'05 -'00 Goods' -',666 -2,622 -242 -359 -40' -664 -485 -657 -744 -737 -82 -80 -80 -'34 -'46 Exports '7,028 '9,798 20,033 4,783 5,027 4,927 5,062 5,083 5,349 5,034 4,568 ',47' ',5'4 ',798 ',586 ',729 Imports '8,179 2',464 22,655 5,025 5,386 5,328 5,726 5,568 6,006 5,777 5,305 ',553 ',594 ',878 ',720 ',874 Services 993 ','93 ',782 275 366 354 '98 368 502 533 379 '23 56 97 ''6 ''9 Exports 3,572 4,29' 5,'82 897 ',038 ',307 ',049 ',087 ',326 ',526 ',244 32' 254 323 347 337 Imports 2,580 3,098 3,400 622 672 953 85' 7'9 824 993 864 '98 '98 226 230 2'8 Income -440 -708 -',026 -52 -'88 -356 -''2 -239 -247 -284 -255 -'6 -'6 -20 -74 -43 Receipts 872 ','69 ',303 234 293 298 344 293 329 329 352 76 75 82 93 '00 Expenditure ',3'2 ',877 2,329 286 48' 654 456 533 576 6'3 607 92 9' '02 '67 '43 Current transfers -'73 -274 -'88 -76 -34 -78 -86 -''' -30 22 -70 -7 -69 0 -'4 -30 Receipts 785 905 804 '97 237 2'9 252 '48 '93 232 230 5' 59 87 75 65 Expenditure 958 ','78 992 273 27' 296 338 259 223 2'0 300 58 '28 87 89 95 Capital and financial account ',092 ',7'3 2,22' 28' '77 339 9'5 4'9 823 44' 537 -'87 220 249 22 -66 Capital account -'3' -52 -84 '5 -27 -32 -8 -' -22 -39 -23 '8 6 -9 0 -7 Financial account ',223 ',765 2,305 266 204 37' 923 420 845 480 560 -205 2'4 258 22 -59 Direct investment -'74 -269 256 -248 -64 -4 47 '48 -22 -86 2'6 -''4 -'35 2 -43 -'00 Domestic abroad -687 -',3'9 -983 -326 -296 -439 -257 -'59 -324 -332 -'68 -'07 -'57 -62 -'48 -''6 Foreign in Slovenia 5'3 ',050 ',239 79 232 435 304 306 302 246 384 -8 22 64 '04 '7 Portfolio investment -',442 -2,264 606 -624 -',204 377 -8'4 30' -','27 '80 ',252 -902 -'52 430 -4'4 -620 Financial derivatives -'3 -2' 6 2 -2 -'2 -'0 2 ' 3 0 6 -4 ' 0 0 Other investment ',57' 4,'79 ',4'6 ',080 ',484 -22 ',636 50 ',9'4 382 -930 620 628 -'68 425 726 Assets -',939 -4,877 -772 -2,4'3 -455 -',405 -605 -997 -207 350 82 -734 -836 -843 -847 48' Commercial credits -442 -394 -2'2 -385 -'80 32 '39 -508 -'66 -7 470 -27 -'64 -'94 -97 -'0 Loans -733 -',890 -540 -372 -456 -435 -627 53 -44' '62 -3'3 -2' -90 -26' -48 -2'3 Currency and deposits -743 -2,60' -38 -',675 '82 -990 -''8 -533 358 2'4 -77 -754 -575 -345 -685 70' Other assets -2' 7 '7 '8 0 -'2 ' -9 42 -'9 3 68 -7 -43 -'6 3 Liabilities 3,5'0 9,057 2,'89 3,493 ',939 ',383 2,24' ',047 2,'2' 32 -',0'2 ',355 ',464 675 ',272 245 Commercial credits 479 503 '67 269 55 -88 268 '77 30' 69 -380 -'72 2'8 223 -'9 89 Loans 2,064 3,840 ',848 32 ',554 9'0 ',345 640 ',467 234 -492 '46 -52 -62 ',02' 30' Deposits 998 4,727 '90 3,208 338 567 6'3 253 346 -272 -'37 ',406 ',282 52' 279 -'40 Other liabilities -30 -'4 -'7 -'6 -7 -6 '6 -22 7 2 -3 -25 '6 -6 -9 -5 International reserves2 ',28' '40 2' 55 32 64 -8' 80 ' 2' '85 -'23 -7 55 -65 Statistical error -32' -258 -'67 -'85 39 '4' -252 48 -39' 3' '45 '70 -''0 -245 84 '66 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods ',680 ',933 2,229 456 508 466 504 523 577 595 534 '36 '34 '85 '59 '76 Intermediate goods 9,368 '0,438 '0,755 2,609 2,670 2,560 2,593 2,75' 2,892 2,729 2,383 8'' 835 963 854 92' Consumer goods 5,709 7,0'4 6,809 ',647 ',746 ',790 ',858 ',753 ',8'6 ',647 ',592 503 52' 623 545 592 Import of investment goods 2,565 3,004 3,433 658 736 740 870 772 928 860 873 '98 2'' 249 229 265 Intermediate goods '',3'9 '2,874 '3,7'8 3,'52 3,2'2 3,'62 3,344 3,4'5 3,662 3,54' 3,099 ',006 987 ','59 ',0'6 ',''9 Consumer goods 4,456 5,609 5,852 ',238 ',446 ',4'3 ',508 ',456 ',5'4 ',467 ',4'5 359 402 477 478 494 Sources of data: BS, SORS. Notes: 'exports and imports (F.O.B.) include also the adjustment for exports and imports of goods by ITRS and duty-free shops reports; 2 reserve assets of the BS. Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2009 43 Statistical Appendix 2007 2008 2009 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 -10 -230 -93 -158 -173 -184 -306 -202 -140 -126 -110 -190 -132 -201 -183 -89 -221 -146 -315 -14 -80 -79 -89 -117 -195 -180 -191 -293 -188 -132 -164 -156 -281 -220 -261 -296 -186 -268 -180 -289 -32 -22 1,712 1,741 1,478 1,708 1,855 1,781 1,426 1,617 1,709 1,756 1,866 1,716 1,767 1,807 1,338 1,889 1,837 1,526 1,205 1,203 1,280 1,791 1,830 1,595 1,903 2,035 1,973 1,719 1,806 1,841 1,921 2,022 1,997 1,987 2,069 1,634 2,075 2,104 1,706 1,494 1,235 1,303 130 94 141 119 79 56 63 120 117 131 153 183 166 140 183 210 174 127 79 123 78 354 443 465 399 382 307 360 350 346 391 422 446 457 532 503 491 459 383 402 328 301 224 349 324 280 303 251 297 230 229 260 270 263 291 391 320 281 285 256 323 206 223 -71 -210 -102 -44 -45 -28 -39 -78 -80 -82 -78 -79 -91 -88 -96 -100 -91 -83 -80 -75 -69 100 97 91 110 112 112 120 97 96 100 109 110 110 113 107 108 119 116 117 88 82 171 307 193 154 157 139 159 175 176 182 187 189 200 201 203 208 211 199 197 163 151 10 -25 -15 -38 -27 -22 -37 -56 -45 -10 -30 -14 14 7 27 -12 -36 -10 -24 -30 -67 96 70 89 59 74 85 93 33 55 59 40 59 95 65 108 60 57 83 90 33 44 87 96 104 97 101 106 130 89 100 70 69 73 81 58 81 72 93 93 114 63 111 221 323 19 -2 139 286 491 96 240 84 221 329 273 166 232 43 -91 293 335 64 -79 -20 -11 3 -24 7 5 -20 5 3 -9 7 -6 -23 -10 0 -29 -1 28 -49 -8 -2 240 334 16 21 132 281 511 91 236 93 214 335 296 176 232 73 -89 265 385 72 -77 79 96 45 -145 99 -103 50 41 11 96 -50 -2 29 -90 96 -92 -32 86 162 28 -69 -32 -154 -61 -224 6 -159 -104 -43 -40 -76 -155 -132 -37 -210 -26 -96 -90 -18 -61 -33 -52 111 250 107 79 93 56 154 83 51 173 105 130 67 120 122 5 57 104 223 61 -17 -169 234 119 24 -360 -490 36 17 688 -404 -426 -457 -244 134 -207 253 379 657 216 366 550 -2 -7 -5 -1 -11 0 1 3 3 -3 1 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 -9 -11 333 -121 -136 235 384 901 351 30 -503 522 605 777 531 202 239 -59 -469 -461 1 -310 -633 -89 -605 -360 -439 -302 -372 70 139 -964 -172 388 182 -778 99 -97 348 -453 -3 538 130 595 -73 31 155 -154 -233 -18 390 -76 -224 -208 -23 -96 -46 16 144 -168 -40 128 382 164 -36 -194 -214 -148 -74 -131 -136 -359 174 -41 -80 17 -205 -253 257 -377 282 -286 73 -100 34 219 165 -408 -371 -211 53 -217 45 27 -694 134 346 493 -481 -179 138 255 -136 -209 268 -76 406 13 -14 3 -1 8 -1 -6 14 -5 -18 48 -9 3 5 -2 -22 9 5 -12 9 6 423 484 225 674 686 1,273 282 -108 461 695 217 595 1,309 103 336 -407 -17 -458 -537 -440 -1,228 -15 59 -303 156 163 97 8 -78 106 150 94 214 -8 29 -95 135 -3 -130 -246 -343 44 232 231 254 425 209 881 254 116 215 309 -175 511 1,131 108 225 -100 37 -485 -44 -102 28 199 188 281 98 328 299 -14 -134 150 236 294 -128 180 -40 206 -438 -51 159 -244 5 -1,303 6 7 -8 -6 -14 -4 34 -13 -10 0 4 -2 5 6 0 -5 0 -2 -2 0 4 -1 132 -8 -91 20 -28 72 0 37 -118 85 16 -21 -73 104 -30 33 -17 5 -4 86 -211 -93 74 160 34 -101 -185 106 -99 42 -111 -139 -142 36 -50 45 312 -146 -20 -50 159 174 166 140 160 180 165 159 147 178 199 194 192 191 202 151 241 198 181 156 126 N/A 895 918 778 864 959 927 707 891 934 926 1,015 925 953 976 755 998 980 815 589 633 N/A 610 619 520 651 679 653 526 561 580 612 635 577 603 607 411 629 638 510 444 431 N/A 242 246 199 295 303 299 268 247 251 273 316 312 300 293 225 342 288 278 307 166 N/A 1,077 1,105 955 1,102 1,161 1,185 998 1,116 1,143 1,156 1,224 1,219 1,219 1,291 1,028 1,222 1,307 1,015 777 739 N/A 475 478 424 511 576 492 440 466 473 517 515 501 498 519 402 546 543 439 433 350 N/A Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2009 44 Statistical Appendix MONETARY INDICATORS AND INTEREST RATES 2006 2007 2008 2007 1 |2|3|4|5|6|7|8|9| 10 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in SIT bn; since 1 January 2007 in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 16.6 67 68 69 69 69 68 68 68 68 68 67 67 Central government (S. 1311) 776.6 2,367 2,162 3,184 3,219 2,944 2,748 2,574 2,465 2,408 2,342 2,345 2,348 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 24.9 118 212 108 106 107 105 107 107 107 110 111 114 Households (S. 14, 15) 1289.4 6,818 7,827 5,428 5,488 5,633 5,748 5,892 6,015 6,157 6,323 6,468 6,607 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 3236.0 18,105 21,150 14,086 14,250 14,660 15,142 15,426 15,788 16,274 16,720 17,004 17,269 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 368.1 2,305 2,815 1,554 1,563 1,574 1,761 1,747 1,911 2,034 2,083 2,205 2,367 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 1158.7 2,401 3,663 3,505 2,770 2,267 2,033 2,257 2,211 2,218 2,439 2,448 2,460 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 2298.2 26,555 32,115 21,761 21,634 21,726 22,297 23,089 23,558 24,146 24,892 25,310 25,864 In foreign currency 3149.0 1,990 2,370 1,048 1,100 1,160 1,248 1,335 1,456 1,560 1,638 1,699 1,789 Securities, total 1286.8 3,570 3,344 5,055 4,662 4,299 3,992 3,577 3,484 3,492 3,488 3,573 3,511 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in SIT bn; since 1 January 2007 in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 2,903.4 20,029 23,129 17,823 17,912 17,914 18,066 18,367 18,446 18,880 19,299 19,386 19,579 Overnight 1,178.6 6,887 6,605 6,645 6,598 6,648 6,676 6,849 6,953 7,047 6,881 6,907 6,695 With agreed maturity -short-term 1,251.2 8,913 10,971 7,673 7,837 7,639 7,758 7,777 7,592 7,867 8,331 8,247 8,689 With agreed maturity -long-term 292.4 2,857 4,157 2,486 2,492 2,560 2,569 2,573 2,693 2,728 2,790 2,874 2,820 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 181.2 1,372 1,396 1,019 985 1,067 1,063 1,168 1,208 1,238 1,297 1,358 1,375 Deposits in foreign currency, total 1,454.5 559 490 634 614 607 597 615 610 605 628 608 589 Overnight 552.7 218 215 311 293 285 264 280 274 270 278 269 255 With agreed maturity -short-term 545.5 248 198 240 239 237 251 248 249 242 258 248 241 With agreed maturity -long-term 318.3 56 41 64 64 62 60 61 60 61 62 60 60 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 38.0 37 36 19 18 23 22 26 27 32 30 31 33 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.32 0.36 0.43 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.37 0.42 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 2.96 3.36 4.45 2.83 2.91 3.01 3.07 3.15 3.26 3.36 3.41 3.61 3.89 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 4.56 5.80 6.88 5.16 5.44 5.50 5.35 5.37 5.36 5.79 5.98 6.16 6.45 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 4.64 5.76 6.03 5.49 6.53 4.86 5.12 6.49 5.76 5.59 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operations | 2.781 3.85 | 3.851 3.50 3.501 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 4.001 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 4.00 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates 3.58 4.28 4.63 3.75 3.82 3.89 3.98 4.07 4.15 4.22 4.54 4.74 4.69 6-month rates 3.58 4.35 4.72 3.89 3.94 4.00 4.10 4.20 4.28 4.36 4.59 4.75 4.66 LIBOR CHF 3-month rates 1.51 2.55 2.58 2.15 2.21 2.26 2.32 2.41 2.55 2.72 2.80 2.82 2.79 6-month rates 1.65 2.65 2.69 2.26 2.32 2.36 2.44 2.54 2.70 2.85 2.86 2.90 2.89 Sources of data: BS, BBA - British Bankers' Association. Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2009 45 Statistical Appendix 2007 2008 2009 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 67 67 67 67 66 66 66 65 66 66 67 69 69 68 69 87 103 2,374 2,367 2,412 2,397 2,392 2,123 2,162 2,052 2,030 2,069 2,046 2,058 2,176 2,162 2,702 2,868 3,132 112 118 123 124 124 128 129 133 136 143 178 184 181 212 223 229 233 6,830 6,818 6,918 7,009 7,133 7,235 7,318 7,409 7,521 7,603 7,705 7,857 7,785 7,827 7,831 7,852 7,868 17,748 18,105 18,570 18,754 18,938 19,351 19,616 20,064 20,404 20,619 20,872 21,134 21,092 21,150 21,349 21,437 21,469 2,396 2,305 2,390 2,411 2,494 2,558 2,568 2,736 2,726 2,729 2,798 2,815 2,845 2,815 2,815 2,814 2,851 2,580 2,401 2,455 2,432 2,444 2,624 2,375 2,386 2,403 2,400 2,737 2,965 2,963 3,663 3,887 3,827 3,791 26,596 26,555 27,164 27,406 27,768 28,503 28,871 29,380 29,805 30,108 30,888 31,444 31,594 32,115 32,392 32,672 32,648 1,900 1,990 2,117 2,192 2,280 2,276 2,259 2,263 2,228 2,271 2,344 2,512 2,371 2,370 2,372 2,315 2,190 3,544 3,570 3,586 3,529 3,477 3,239 3,038 3,137 3,188 3,184 3,104 3,059 3,077 3,344 4,043 4,040 4,506 19,558 20,029 20,088 20,674 20,779 20,774 20,613 21,144 21,341 21,465 21,992 22,177 22,385 23,129 23,565 24,487 24,334 6,573 6,887 6,924 6,557 6,787 6,711 6,841 7,071 6,744 6,703 6,918 6,666 6,577 6,605 6,415 6,421 6,609 8,723 8,913 8,899 9,862 9,745 9,734 9,292 9,439 9,936 9,929 10,038 10,530 10,659 10,971 11,247 12,053 11,705 2,817 2,857 2,845 2,803 2,814 2,926 3,046 3,170 3,241 3,378 3,519 3,555 3,727 4,157 4,543 4,729 4,827 1,445 1,372 1,420 1,452 1,433 1,403 1,434 1,464 1,420 1,455 1,517 1,426 1,422 1,396 1,360 1,284 1,193 585 559 571 560 520 529 527 488 491 502 493 537 551 490 504 502 491 260 218 248 240 226 222 225 218 220 228 218 244 247 215 242 230 233 226 248 229 237 220 224 224 196 192 190 196 213 227 198 181 195 177 57 56 55 48 45 45 42 42 43 42 43 44 42 41 42 43 42 42 37 39 35 29 38 36 32 36 42 36 36 35 36 39 34 39 0.40 0.40 0.44 0.41 0.41 0.43 0.46 0.46 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.51 0.52 0.43 0.48 0.40 - 3.83 4.04 4.08 3.95 4.03 4.14 4.20 4.30 4.40 4.39 4.53 4.65 4.56 4.45 4.08 3.40 - 6.44 6.58 6.75 6.40 6.61 6.53 6.53 6.63 6.71 6.95 6.99 7.10 7.17 6.88 7.05 6.63 - - 6.25 - - 5.63 6.32 5.47 6.63 6.91 6.53 6.94 6.76 7.24 7.74 6.61 6.35 - 4.00 1 4.00 1 4.00 1 4.00 1 4.001 4.001 4.001 4.001 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 3.75 | 3.25 | 2.501 2.001 2.001 1.50 4.64 4.85 4.48 4.36 4.60 4.78 4.86 4.94 4.96 4.97 5.02 5.11 4.24 3.29 2.46 1.94 1.64 4.63 4.82 4.50 4.36 4.59 4.80 4.90 5.09 5.15 5.16 5.22 5.18 4.29 3.37 2.54 2.03 1.78 2.75 2.77 2.70 2.74 2.83 2.85 2.78 2.84 2.79 2.75 2.78 3.00 1.97 0.91 0.57 0.51 - 2.85 2.84 2.77 2.77 2.87 2.93 2.89 2.98 2.94 2.89 2.92 3.09 2.16 1.08 0.71 0.65 - Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2009 46 Statistical Appendix PUBLIC FINANCE 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2007 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS-IMF methodology), current prices, EUR m GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 12,958.7 14,006.1 15,335.0 3,063.2 3,454.0 3,429.1 4,059.8 3,369.3 4,005.7 3,857.5 4,102.4 1,060.6 958.7 1,043.9 1,293.0 1,172.5 Current revenues 12,395.3 13,467.2 14,790.4 2,955.0 3,374.9 3,332.1 3,805.1 3,274.0 3,881.0 3,733.8 3,901.6 1,034.4 926.2 994.4 1,272.6 1,158.0 Tax revenues 1 1,762.0 12,757.9 13,937.2 2,828.7 3,199.7 3,123.6 3,606.0 3,110.0 3,702.0 3,472.0 3,653.2 994.5 883.2 951.0 1,219.0 1,094.2 Taxes on income and profit 2,735.3 2,917.7 3,442.2 587.7 914.3 646.3 769.4 694.4 1,106.5 806.5 834.7 188.2 189.9 209.7 462.9 288.3 Social security contributions 4,231.2 4,598.0 5,095.0 1,083.4 1,123.7 1,139.1 1,251.8 1,203.1 1,254.2 1,272.9 1,364.8 358.4 360.5 364.6 371.1 371.9 Taxes on payroll and workforce 472.9 418.1 258.0 96.1 99.7 101.5 120.9 59.4 62.2 63.5 72.9 32.8 32.1 31.1 32.8 32.4 Taxes on property 189.1 206.4 214.8 22.2 58.0 67.3 59.0 27.5 62.6 69.6 55.1 6.2 7.9 8.1 10.7 27.2 Domestic taxes on goods and services 4,077.3 4,498.6 4,805.3 1,017.6 973.0 1,135.5 1,372.5 1,099.4 1,181.7 1,227.8 1,296.4 403.2 286.9 327.6 332.5 363.3 Taxes on international trade & transactions 50.7 117.1 120.1 21.5 30.7 33.2 31.7 25.6 33.7 31.0 29.8 5.5 6.3 9.7 .9 oj 11.0 Other taxes 5.4 2.1 1.8 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.7 -0.6 0.3 -0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 Non-tax revenues 633.3 709.2 853.2 126.3 175.2 208.6 199.1 164.0 179.0 261.8 248.4 39.9 43.0 43.4 53.6 63.8 Capital revenues 166.8 136.6 114.9 19.7 15.2 39.6 62.1 28.0 26.9 28.8 31.2 7.5 6.1 6.1 6.0 4.1 Grants 5.4 11.9 10.1 2.1 2.8 2.0 5.0 2.0 2.1 3.1 2.8 0.7 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.7 Transferred revenues 42.8 42.5 54.2 0.2 1.4 0.4 40.5 1.2 0.9 0.6 51.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 Receipts from the EU budget 348.4 348.0 365.4 86.2 59.6 55.1 147.1 64.0 94.8 91.3 115.3 17.9 26.0 42.3 13.4 8.7 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TOTAL EXPENDITURES 13,208.7 13,915.5 15,434.7 3,201.2 3,392.6 3,240.0 4,081.8 3,388.6 3,792.9 3,628.8 4,624.4 983.7 1,108.8 1,108.7 1,061.8 1,242.4 Current expenditures 5,689.0 5,950.9 6,555.7 1,482.0 1,448.5 1,362.2 1,658.2 1,575.9 1,581.7 1,513.7 1,884.4 489.3 473.2 519.5 506.4 506.3 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3,180.3 3,276.9 3,580.6 785.8 851.7 814.4 825.0 819.7 906.8 892.5 961.5 262.1 262.1 261.6 261.8 321.9 Expenditures on goods and services 2,073.2 2,212.2 2,525.9 490.3 482.6 518.0 721.3 523.1 589.3 586.1 827.4 192.1 146.0 152.2 155.1 169.3 Interest payments 376.4 357.0 335.1 197.5 105.3 17.5 36.7 221.0 69.8 12.9 31.4 32.4 62.4 102.7 87.1 12.0 Reserves 59.0 104.8 114.1 8.3 8.9 12.3 75.2 12.1 15.8 22.2 64.0 2.6 2.7 3.0 2.4 3.1 Current transfers 5,925.8 6,143.9 6,741.1 1,457.2 1,665.6 1,456.0 1,565.1 1,489.9 1,856.8 1,567.3 1,827.1 434.9 507.9 514.4 468.2 639.5 Subsidies 402.9 423.4 476.4 104.4 137.9 88.3 92.8 60.5 243.0 57.7 115.2 6.7 54.8 42.8 10.0 39.7 Current transfers to individuals and households 4,871.5 5,093.3 5,616.2 1,219.0 1,359.2 1,211.1 1,304.0 1,303.5 1,448.9 1,344.8 1,519.0 388.1 415.5 415.5 409.2 537.7 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 624.1 595.3 600.3 130.9 158.4 145.3 160.8 118.7 151.2 153.2 177.2 39.7 35.5 55.6 48.5 54.7 Current transfers abroad 27.4 32.0 48.2 2.9 10.2 11.3 7.6 7.2 13.6 11.6 15.7 0.3 2.1 0.5 0.6 7.3 Capital expenditures 901.4 1,130.5 1,252.0 133.4 162.9 266.9 567.3 149.0 215.9 350.0 537.0 44.7 46.3 42.4 46.6 55.6 Capital transfers 404.6 334.3 458.0 28.6 55.0 69.3 181.4 30.6 62.3 130.8 234.3 6.5 9.4 12.7 16.5 19.3 Payments to the EU budget 287.9 355.9 427.9 100.0 60.6 85.6 109.8 143.2 76.2 67.0 141.5 8.3 71.9 19.7 24.1 21.6 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -250.0 90.6 -99.7 - - - - - - - - - - - - Source of data: MF Bulletin. Note: in line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the state are not consolidated. Data prior to 2007 are recalculated on the basis of the irrevocable SIT/EUR exchange rate = 239.64. Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2009 47 Statistical Appendix 2007 2008 2009 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 988.5 1,182.3 1,222.7 1,024.1 1,323.7 1,323.1 1,413.0 1,134.1 1,100.1 1,135.2 1,463.1 1,259.9 1,282.8 1,342.2 1,226.0 1,289.3 1,310.0 1,305.0 1,487.4 1,123.1 944.3 1,159.9 1,168.9 1,003.3 1,259.4 1,236.3 1,309.4 1,104.1 1,073.5 1,096.4 1,435.7 1,228.7 1,216.6 1,306.1 1,164.7 1,263.0 1,295.2 1,184.7 1,421.7 1,112.3 886.5 1,089.8 1,099.5 934.2 1,194.1 1,168.1 1,243.8 1,057.4 1,015.6 1,037.0 1,374.1 1,175.5 1,152.4 1,253.4 1,066.2 1,152.4 1,234.1 1,126.5 1,292.5 1,068.5 163.1 168.7 251.4 226.3 233.4 235.7 300.3 223.0 221.2 250.1 498.3 316.7 291.5 297.9 256.5 252.1 261.1 261.4 312.2 249.4 380.7 379.2 377.9 382.1 385.1 397.3 469.4 394.7 400.0 408.4 419.0 415.8 419.5 425.8 414.8 432.3 435.0 434.9 494.9 433.4 34.5 34.1 33.6 33.9 34.1 36.5 50.3 20.0 19.5 19.9 20.9 20.4 20.9 21.3 20.4 21.8 22.1 22.7 28.1 3.2 20.0 20.8 31.4 15.2 16.3 29.3 13.3 8.7 10.5 8.3 12.0 28.6 22.1 23.0 26.5 20.0 16.3 26.6 12.2 5.3 277.2 475.4 395.4 264.6 514.5 459.9 398.0 404.6 354.7 340.1 411.5 383.4 386.9 475.3 336.2 416.3 490.6 371.0 434.8 370.7 10.7 11.5 9.6 12.0 10.4 9.1 12.2 6.3 9.3 9.9 12.3 10.5 10.9 9.8 11.5 9.7 10.2 9.7 9.9 6.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 -1.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 57.9 70.1 69.4 69.0 65.3 68.1 65.7 46.6 58.0 59.4 61.6 53.1 64.3 52.7 98.5 110.6 61.1 58.1 129.2 43.8 5.1 13.5 17.1 8.9 14.6 15.7 31.9 11.1 9.6 7.3 6.2 5.8 14.9 12.9 6.8 9.0 6.1 6.2 18.9 2.8 1.4 0.7 -0.1 1.4 1.4 0.8 2.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.8 1.6 0.3 1.2 0.6 1.0 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.8 39.7 -0.1 0.4 0.1 0.7 1.1 -0.4 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.4 49.5 1.7 0.2 37.5 8.1 36.6 10.4 47.6 30.6 69.0 17.7 16.1 30.2 19.3 25.3 50.2 21.5 53.7 16.1 7.7 63.6 43.9 7.5 1,088.3 1,094.3 1,090.3 1,055.3 1,140.5 1,249.6 1,691.7 1,030.3 1,140.4 1,218.0 1,228.6 1,363.5 1,200.8 1,139.6 1,179.6 1,309.7 1,259.5 1,452.7 1,912.1 1,119.8 435.8 450.8 463.5 447.9 483.8 500.7 673.7 451.0 512.3 612.7 528.6 544.9 508.2 507.2 486.1 520.4 535.2 562.4 786.8 502.1 268.0 271.1 273.7 269.6 266.2 273.5 285.3 268.6 266.0 285.1 277.7 338.9 290.3 292.5 292.5 307.6 292.9 306.4 362.2 305.5 158.2 170.2 183.4 164.4 187.4 212.1 321.9 155.0 168.6 199.5 184.8 199.2 205.3 204.0 185.7 196.5 207.5 241.4 378.5 171.7 6.2 6.8 3.3 7.4 26.6 4.9 5.2 22.9 74.2 123.9 61.4 2.5 5.8 4.9 2.2 5.7 22.7 2.0 6.7 21.4 3.4 2.7 3.2 6.5 3.7 10.3 61.3 4.4 3.5 4.1 4.6 4.3 6.8 5.9 5.7 10.6 12.0 12.5 39.4 3.5 557.8 525.2 467.0 463.7 473.7 547.1 544.3 460.5 517.3 512.1 580.1 707.5 569.2 513.9 535.3 518.1 528.4 680.2 618.5 515.4 88.2 57.3 13.0 18.0 18.0 25.6 49.2 5.0 35.0 20.6 86.7 83.7 72.6 16.6 19.4 21.7 27.7 18.5 69.0 9.1 412.2 406.4 403.6 401.1 405.0 470.5 428.5 418.1 441.1 444.3 445.0 566.4 437.5 442.0 464.4 438.4 448.8 600.7 469.5 463.1 55.2 57.6 47.1 40.6 49.6 48.9 62.3 35.7 37.7 45.3 46.2 50.5 54.5 54.0 48.4 50.7 51.4 50.3 75.5 40.9 2.3 4.0 3.3 4.0 1.1 2.2 4.3 1.8 3.5 1.9 2.2 6.9 4.6 1.3 3.0 7.3 0.5 10.7 4.5 2.2 60.7 72.2 104.2 90.5 117.3 121.0 329.0 53.7 44.8 50.5 69.3 68.4 78.2 77.7 98.2 174.1 94.5 96.1 346.4 57.4 19.2 22.3 23.2 23.8 35.6 49.4 96.3 9.0 10.7 10.8 18.9 19.2 24.3 21.8 38.0 70.9 53.0 81.1 100.3 12.8 14.8 23.7 32.4 29.5 30.1 31.3 48.4 56.1 55.3 31.9 31.7 23.6 20.9 18.9 21.9 26.2 48.4 32.9 60.1 32.1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 48 Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2009 Acronyms Acronyms AJPES - Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, CAPS - Collective Agreement for Public Sector, EC - European Commision, ECB - European Central Bank, EEB - Electricity Balance, ESS - Employment Service of Slovenia, ESA - European System of Acounts, FED - Federal Reserve System, GDP - Gross domestic product, GNI - gross national income, , HICP - harmonised index of consumer prices, IMAD - Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, IMF - International Monetary Fund, MF - Ministry of Finance, NFI - non-monetary financial institutions, OECD - Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, OPEC -Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, PPA - Public Payments Administration of the Republic of Slovenia, SCA - Standard classification of activities, SITC - Standard International Trade Classification, SORS - Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, ULC - Unit Labour Costs, VAT - value added tax, ZFPP - Financial Operations of Companies Act, ZFPPIPP - Financial Operations, Insolvency Proceedings and Compulsory Dissolution Act, ZPPSL - Compulsory Settlement, Bankruptcy and Liquidation Act. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities (SCA) A- Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B- Mining and quarrying, C- Manufacturing, 10- Manufacture of food products, 11-Manufacture of beverages, 12- Manufacture of tobacco products, 13- Manufacture of textiles, 14- Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15- Manufacture of leather and related products, 16- Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17- Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18-Printing and reproduction of recorded media, 19 - Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, 20 - Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21- Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22- Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23- Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24- Manufacture of basic metals, 25- Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26- Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27- Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28- Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c., 29- Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, 30- Manufacture of other transport equipment, 31-Manufacture of furniture, 32- Other manufacturing, 33- Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D- Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, E- Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities, F-Constrution, G- Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H- Transportation and storage, I-Accommodation and food service activities, J- Information and communication, K- Financial and insurance activities, L-Real estate activities., M- Professional, scientific and technical activities, N- Administrative and support service activities, O- Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P- Education, Q- Human health and social work activities, R- Arts, entertainment and recreation, S- Other service activities, T- Activities of households as employers, undiferentiated goods - and services - reducing activities of households for own use, U- Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AT-Austria, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, EL-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, I-Italy, IE-Ireland, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LV-Latvia, LT-Lithuania, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America, PL-Poland, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia.