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Use of cost analysis, estimation and risk management in making project 
management decisions in construction projects
Miloš Jovanović1, José Moreno Pérez2, Bojan Lalić3, Vladimir Todorović4
1 Fakultet tehničkih nauka, Univerzitet u Novom Sadu, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 6, 21000 Novi Sad, Srbija
2 Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain
3 Fakultet tehničkih nauka, Univerzitet u Novom Sadu, Novi Sad, Srbija
4 Fakultet tehničkih nauka, Univerzitet u Novom Sadu, Novi Sad, Srbija
e-pošta: ns.milos@gmail.com; jmoreno@etsii.upm.es; blalic@uns.ac.rs; todorovic.ftn@gmail.com
Abstract
This research was conducted in a construction consultancy company located in Madrid. Scenario of Spanish construction 
company entering Balkan market was created and suggestions were given in that direction. Firstly, cost estimation framework 
used in Planet Cluster company is improved and presented. Interviews with project managers in Serbia and Spain were 
conducted and conclusions are obtained. Secondly, definition of key costs in construction projects is done. Costs are identified 
in three main categories: materials, labour and machinery. After that, market cost analysis of identified key costs in the 
markets of Serbia and Montenegro and Spain was done. Impact on the total budget of the project is measured, and it is 
calculated that construction projects in Serbia are around 25 % cheaper than in Spain. This analysis created an improved 
base for cost estimation, and project management implications in projects executed in the Balkan area. Moreover, list of 
expected types of risk in the market was created, based on interviews with the experts and on the experience of Planet 
Cluster company. Finally, the aim of this paper is to improve project management in construction projects by proposing a 
cost estimation procedure, analysing cost differences between Spain (European Union) and Serbia (non-European Union 
member), and identifying the construction risk present in the markets. 
Key words: cost estimation, construction project management, risk control, cost analysis
1. Introduction
Construction projects consist of many differentparts.Managing this broad variety of data and differencesrequires increase the use and development of 
project management in construction. Project lifecycle 
is divided in four main phases: initiation (pre-study), 
planning, execution and termination (Tonquist, 2004).
Problems that this research paper will try address are the 
following:
■ Causes of poor cost estimation process.
■ Cost assessment in new markets (key cost parameters 
will be defined and their influence on the overall
project budget will be discussed).
■ Analysis of expected risks in the market. 
It is practically impossible to develop a costing model that 
is universal and perfect in any situation. Construction 
costs depend on many different factors and risks involved
(construction method, employees, experience and many 
others). Many estimates are unrealistically low and during 
the approval stage they are furthermore reduced, but 
inevitably rise during the later implementation stage. 
Main factors creating cost estimation error are: insufficient
time, poor tender documentation and insufficient tender
document analysis by team delegated to perform it 
(Fitzgerald, 2000). Many tools of cost estimation can be 
found in practice, but there is not a standard method to 
calculate costs in the construction projects. 
Cost estimation of the projects using innovative 
technology, where we do not have enough expertise can 
lead us to wrong estimations. (Smith, 1996) states that cost 
estimating is often done for new products or processes,
for which good quality historical data does not exist. In 
this case predictive modelling would be a useful helping 
tool. Linear regression is ideal for linear correlations while 
neural network is most adequate for non-linear. Having 
non-linear relations in regression model would change 
results significantly, neural networks should be used in
that case (Sonmez, 2009). Case base reasoning model 
provides better explanation of the calculations made, is 
easier to update and better uses previous projects data 
in compare to other two models (linear regression and 
neural networks). 
Price books method, direct calculation of the prices 
from the special books, gives rough total cost project 
estimation. This method is used by small contractors not
having department or employees dedicated to the cost 
estimation process. Simplicity of this model is an advantage 
but in some complex cost estimation process may be 
misleading. (Akintoye, 2000) determined main factors 
relevant to the cost estimating practice: complexity of the 
project, scale and scope of construction, market condition, 
method of construction, site constraints, client’s financial
condition, build ability and location of the project.
In this article framework of cost categories involved in 
construction projects is created. After identification of key
cost parameters in construction projects, data collection 
process was initiated.
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The selection of suppliers has been done in three different
ways:
■ Initial selection was done through the participation in 
the construction fair in Serbia, where it was observed 
what kinds of technologies are available on the 
market. 
■ Research through internet and construction magazines 
has been carried out.
■ Interviewers are asked for suggestion about reliable 
suppliers. 
Through this process database of key costs has been
created. Following the creation of the prices database, 
comparison between Serbia and Spain has been made. 
In conclusion, oscillation is measured, weights are given 
(compared to the influence in the final project cost) and
conclusions about construction project management are 
summarized.
We can choose between controlling and being 
controlled by the risks in a project. Risk is perceived 
like a threat of the successful project termination 
within projected time, costs and quality level. Managers 
consider risk management techniques too mathematical 
and difficult to use (Akintoye, 1997). Therefore, using a
checklist of possible risk is one of the most widely used 
techniques. Simplified way of managing risks is to create
impact matrix, measuring impact and probability of risk 
occurrence (PMBOK, 2008). In this paper we focused on 
identifying risks available in both countries.
Risk in construction projects is divided in 4 groups: 
Financial, project timeline, design and quality and security 
(Kanda 1997). Also, risk associated with the lifecycle of 
construction project s can be divided in two groups: 
Project planning phase or preconstruction phase and 
project execution phase of construction phase (Akintoye 
1997 & Macomber 1989).
In summary, the research aim of this article was: 
to explore possibilities of cost reduction and project 
management improvements in the Balkan area, improving 
the cost estimation process, by performing cost and risk 
analysis.
2. Methodology
The research is focused on the differences between two
European regions, Spanish and Serbian market, with 
intention of achieving conclusions useful for managing 
international construction projects. Primary aim of this 
research paper was the identification of key cost factors, the
improvement of the cost estimation and risk identification
process.
Qualitative part is done through interviews with 
managers working in construction projects. Interviews are 
conducted both in Serbia and Spain. People interviewed 
have background of civil engineers and architects, 
prominent experts to comment this area. All the people 
interviewed have contacts with residential buildings, which 
are the most common in practice. They are employed in
Spain (two of them) or Serbia (four of them) and their work 
experience was in average 23 years and annual turnover of 
the companies they work in is 6.000.000 euro in average. 
Aim of the interviews was to identify “bottle necks” of the 
project flow and oscillation of the budgeted costs.
Aim of this qualitative research is to identify problems 
(risks), possible solutions, key drivers that need to be 
compared, differences in the project management tools
between these two geographical areas areas.
According to the interviews, expertise and historical 
data of the Planet Cluster company, key cost parameters 
are identified. In other words, most important cost
parameters in construction projects are identified.
Therefore, budget of the whole construction project
was divided in different groups and budget grouping was
proposed. Following, costs of constructing a building 
(as one part of the whole budget) are examined further. 
They present the biggest part in the whole project budget,
and these costs are the ones that are hardest to access. 
Therefore, we choose to measure these costs in Spain and
Serbia and make a numerical comparison. In order to 
make the right comparison, costs carrying more than 70 
% of the total construction budgets are identified, quoted
in both countries and compared. These costs were divided
to the lowest level (labour, materials, machinery) in order 
to get better comparison. In accordance with cost impact 
on the final budget project, management decisions are
suggested. 
Project Management Institute (2008) defines tools
and techniques to identify risks. Methodologies used 
for risk identification in this article were: Interviewing,
information gathering technique and documentation 
review. 
3. Cost estimation methodology
Cost estimation methodology in construction projects is 
not universal and each company has its own way to access 
costs. In this chapter cost categories of the cost estimation, 
that should be involved in the calculation are described. 
Logically, depending on the purpose of the cost estimation, 
data availability, and project phase, cost estimation 
precision will change from rough towards detailed.
Important to mention is that there are different steps
of the project design (conceptual, basic and executive) 
and that different cost estimation is needed (rough or
more detailed). Along with different phases of the project,
error limits change. According to (Hereida, 1996), in 
the conceptual design of the project (rough estimation) 
oscillation of the costs is from -20 % till 30 % while in 
the last phase (executive) situation is different and error
goes from -3 % till 5 %. According to the (PMBOK, 2008, 
p.168) in the project initiation phase, ROM - Rough 
Order Magnitude estimate is in range of ± 50 %, while 
later on in the project with more information available, 
cost estimation error range will decrease to the ±10 %. 
Therefore, depending on the project phase, and data
available, the cost estimation will be more or less precise
In this chapter we proposed cost groups that should 
be used in the cost estimation process of the residential 
construction projects. Model used in the Planet Cluster 
company is improved and presented in this chapter.
Firstly, we will mention calculation methodology 
of different cost groups. NPV - Net Present Value rule
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is common calculation methodology used by investors 
to evaluate their investment decision. NPV depends on 
future cash flows of the project. According to (Brealey,
Corporate finance, 2007):
PV = ∑ CashFlow(t)/(1+DiscountRate(t))t  NPV= I0+ PV
Therefore, NPV method is used to evaluate feasibility of
the project investment. Further, we will elaborate different
cost categories needed to be involved in this calculation. 
As previously mentioned, precision of the cost estimation 
will largely depend on the project phase. 
Cost categories involved in the construction project 
estimation:
1. Land costs – buying, cleaning and preparing the land. 
Preparation of the land often carries hidden and
unexpected costs.
2. Construction costs – all costs incurred while 
constructing the building (object): labour, materials 
and machinery. This cost category is examined in
detail in the cost analysis section.
3. Facility management costs – involve whole lifecycle of 
the project. In construction projects this mainly refers 
to maintenance and warranty costs, which depends on 
the contract type.
4. Legal and permission costs – permits requested for 
start of construction phase and approvals needed for 
the use permit in the end of construction phase. 
5. Management costs or fixed costs – in accounting
referred as fixed costs: permanent labour, machines,
offices and other assets in the company that are
involved in the project.
6. Cost of capital – cost of financial sources obtained for
the project (debt or shareholder equity).
7. Mark-up and unexpected costs – planned profit from
the project, but also a buffer for the unexpected costs.
4. Cost analysis
We will focus on the construction costs group, since they 
present the biggest expense and they have the maximum 
change from one project to another. Construction costs in 
Spain and Serbia will be compared. 
Firstly, we should focus on the project planning 
phase. When we understand type of activities involved 
in construction projects, division and comparison of the 
costs done will be clear. So, activity in construction project 
is presented as follows:
Unique code | Description | Position | Duration | 
Material | Machinery | Labour | Cost
Figure 1: Graphical presentation of one activity
From the Figure 1 we can see data needed to create an 
activity in construction projects. Data of interest for us were: 
material, machinery and labour and cost. We compared 
cost difference of these 3 groups (material, machinery and
labour). Selection criteria for key cost parameters of these 
3 groups were to involve most common costs in all the 
projects reviewed. Key costs chosen present more than 70 
% of costs in all projects. In total, 9 residential buildings 
projects constructed in Barcelona and Madrid with value 
between 3-15.000.000 euro and size of between 5-18.000 
square meters are reviewed.
After key cost definition, their quotation in both
countries is done and difference is measured. Short
example of this calculation is given in the Table 1:
Table 1: Cost comparison between Serbia and Spain
Unit Quantity
Cost in 
Serbia
Cost in 
Spain
Difference
Materials:
Sand m3 7.5 € 8 € 93.75 %
Concrete 
MB30
m3 67 € 63,89 € 104.87 %
Labour:
Low 
qualified
1 2 €/h
16,61 
€/h
12.04 %
Machines:
Hand mixer 
125 litres
1 189 € 212 € 89.15 %
Difference = cost in Serbia/cost in Spain. If price in Serbia
is lower, difference column will be less than 100  %, while
if price is higher, difference column will show more than
100 %. 
Table 2 demonstrates two phases of construction 
project. Construction projects may be divided in 14 
different physical construction steps starting with rough
works, and ending with soft works. Construction phases
are: 1) Soil movements, 2) foundations, 3) structure, 4) roof, 
5) isolation, 6) enclosure, 7) wall lining, 8) pavements, 9) 
carpentry aluminium, 10) carpentry wood, 11) plumbing, 
12) ventilations, 13) electricity and 14) portable water. For 
each construction phase proportion of material, labour 
and machinery and auxiliary resources involved is given. 
Short example of this division is presented in the Table 2.
Table 2: Labour, machinery, materials and auxiliary resource in 
different construction phases (source: Planet Cluster company)
Soil movements
5,94 % of total project 
cost
Excavation:
     Labour 15,29 %
     Machines 65,61 %
     Auxiliary resources 19,1 %
Levelling:
     Labour 31,88 %
     Machines 24,64 %
     Auxiliary resources 43,48 %
Table 3, connect first two tables and shows impact of price
difference between Spain and Serbia in material, labour
and machinery on the total project costs. Therefore Table 3
includes multiplication of the cost difference, involvement
in phases and impact on the total price of the project. 
Short example of the table 3.
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Basically, the rows of the table present Table 2 and columns 
(captions) take the results from the Table 1. In the final
three columns of the table (reduction of costs, impact on 
costs, total cost reduction) results and impact on the final
project cost can be observed.
Columns with results (reduction of costs, impact on 
costs, total cost reduction) are the one we need for the cost 
analysis.
■ Reduction of costs is calculated as a sum of the 
multiplications of the elements in row and column. Sum 
product matrix excel function was used. The purpose
of this calculation is estimate reduction in price of one 
action keeping in mind all the cost involved. In the 
table example, excavation phase in Serbia is cheaper 
and costs 65,67 % of the price in Spain. 
■ Impact on costs, is taken from the Table 2. This column
shows how much is the cost of each construction phase 
involved in the total cost of the project. In other words, 
this column tells us how much will change in each 
construction phase change total project budget.
■ Total cost reduction, is calculated as a multiplication 
of one reduction of cost of the construction phase with 
percentage presenting construction phase´s impact 
on the total project cost. Both columns are already 
explained in the text. What kind of information is given 
by this column? Each construction’s phase involvement 
in the final projects budget. Summing up the rows will
give us the impact on the total project price. From the 
table presented we can see that sum is 73,35 %. That
means that construction project budget in Serbia will 
be 73,35 % of budget in Spain. Therefore, It can be
concluded that same project from Spain executed in 
Serbia will be for one quarter cheaper.
4.1 Result analysis 
Cost analysis presented in Tables 1, 2 and 3 creates 
foundation of this research paper and they show: cost 
comparison, construction phases division (financial and
project resources) and cost difference impact on total
project costs. 
The key outlines from these tables are (key cost
parameters are presented in Table 1):
■ In average, labour is five times cheaper in Serbia;
■ Difference between low and highly qualified labour in
Serbia is close to 250 %; 
■ Materials in Serbia are cheaper but with lower quality; 
■ Biggest cost reduction in the project is coming from 
enclosure, wall lining phase and carpentry construction 
phases influenced by low labour and wood prices in
Serbia; 
■ Projects in Serbia cost around one quarter less in 
comparison with Spain.
4.2 Sensitivity analysis and graphical 
presentation
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Table 3: Cost differences impact on the total cost of the construction projects
Labour Machinery
Auxiliary 
resources
Reduction of 
Costs
Impact on 
costs
Total cost 
reduction
16,11 % 76,15 % 69,36 % ......
1. Soil
movements
Excavation 15,29 % 65,61 % 19,10 % ...... 65,67 %
Levelling 31,88 % 24,64 % 43,48 % ...... 54,06 % 5,94 % 3,25 %
Transport of 
soil mass
43,59 % ...... 44,48 %
......
2. 
Foundations
Level rising 38,91 % 13,58 % ...... 66,78 %
Core walls 27,06 % 2,26 % ...... 81,94 %
Foundation 24,83 % 2,55 % 2,38 % ...... 83,14 % 5,23 % 4,25 %
Pile caps 1,92 % 0,39 % ...... 105,65 %
Bases 
construction
41,38 % 3,44 % ...... 68,40 %
......
3.
Structure
Slab 9,07 % 0,04 % 0,13 % ...... 99,19 % 13,96 % 13,85 %
......
73,35 %
Figure 2: Subtracted impact of Spanish project with Serbian 
project
Figure 2 is based on the cost difference in construction steps
coming from the Table. On the axis, fourteen phases of 
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construction are marked. Percentage on the vertical bar 
presents difference between Spanish and Serbian market.
Phases 6 and 7 (enclosure and lining) are creating the 
greatest cost difference of around 15 %, while the total
difference between cost of project in Serbia and Spain
is 26,65 %. Also, negative impact can be observed in the 
phase 11 (plumbing), which means that phase 11 is more 
expensive in Serbia compared to Spain.
5. Risk identificationst
Risks in construction projects are widely discussed 
in literature, in this article we focused on prioritizing 
and comparing risk in Serbia and Spain. Serbia is not a 
European Union member, labour wages are much lower, 
regulations are stricter in Spain, geographical location and 
climate is much different between these two countries.
Therefore, risks with higher probability of appearing
in Serbia are:
■ Financial risk is highest in the Serbian market
■ Currency fluctuation is pretty high in Serbia and it is
important to develop a strategy
■ Preconstruction preparation and wrong project 
estimation risk are available in Serbia due to the poor 
ground installation schemes and little time devoted
■ Security risk of the workers is a consequence of lower 
regulations
■ High labour rotation is a consequence of low salaries
■ Climate risk is much higher in Serbia and winter 
period present a potential problem
■ Political risk is higher in Serbia due to the political 
instability in the area
■ Supply chain management risk is higher in Serbia due 
to existence of borders 
In Spanish market:
■ Time management risk, penalties for project delays are 
much higher and therefore, more important.
■ Contract risk, due to the better law system in Spain, 
contract agreement has greater impact in Spain
■ Quality offered and expected in the market is much
higher.
■ Greater diversity of construction technologies are 
available and used in Spain than in Serbia. 
6. Conclusion
The global aim of this research paper was to improve
project management in construction projects. Specific
objectives of the research were focused on cost 
estimation improvements, cost analysis and its impact 
on cost differences on the project budget and finally, risk
identification and differences in both markets.
Conclusions of the interviews conducted are the 
following: 
■ Biggest change in the project price comes from the 
additional works performed (which are out of the 
project scope) and not from the poor cost estimation 
process. 
■ Biggest threat to the construction projects in Serbia is 
coming from the financial risk.   
■ Short time for project planning causes two main 
problems: wrong project specification leading to the
wrong project scope definition and wrong estimation
of the current situation on the construction site 
arising from bad preconstruction preparation and 
estimation.
■ Currency fluctuation is affecting the construction
market in Serbia due to the fact that most of the 
machines and materials are imported and time (price) 
Figure 3: Sensitivity analysis of labour price increases and 
cements price decrease
Table 4: Sensitivity analysis of labour price increases and cements 
price decrease
cement -20 % cement -10 % cement
Labour 69,23 % 71,29 % 73,35 %
labour, +100 %, 
+50 % 
74,39 % 76,45 % 78,52 %
labour,+200 %, 
+100 % 
79,56 % 81,62 % 83,68 %
labour, +300 %, 
+150 %
84,72 % 86,78 % 88,84 %
Sensitivity analysis was done for two units: cement and 
labour. Those units are chosen to be investigated since
they are expected to change in the future.
Labour prices in Serbia are expected to rise 
significantly. Three groups of labour are identified and
prices are increased from 50 to 300 %. At the same time 
prices of cement in Serbia are decreased. Entering EU will 
probably imply labour prices increase, and termination 
of the cement price lobby in Serbia, and therefore price 
decrease. 
Changes in prices are showed in Figure 3, both in 
table and on graph, for better presentation of the results. 
From the results obtained using Table 4, it can be seen 
that impact on the project budget changes from 69,23 % 
to 88,84 %. Therefore, in the future we can expect that the
price difference will decrease between Spain and Serbia
but it still expected that constructing in Serbia will be 
cheaper. Also, it may be observed that just two units have 
changed the price and that it influences significantly on
the cost analysis. 
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difference between planning and execution phase. This
fact significantly affects cost estimation process.
■ Climate risk is present in both markets but in Serbia is 
of greater importance and affects flow of operations.
■ High labour rotation on the construction sites (due to 
law salaries, no learning curve exploitation)
According to previous objectives, the following key 
conclusions are summarized:
■ Cost estimation methodology is proposed and seven 
different cost groups are identified.
■ Four conclusions can be obtained from the cost 
analysis:
 ■ Construction project budget in Serbia is 27 % 
cheaper compared to Spain. In average, materials, 
labour and machinery is cheaper in Serbia but the 
cost analysis provide us exact impact of those cost 
differences on the project budget.   
 ■ Serbian market is suitable for prefabrication 
technology and also specialization trainings are 
preferable. This conclusion is due to the high cost
difference of the labour categories, and low labour
prices in general.
 ■ Tight management control is needed in two 
construction phases: enclosure and wall lining, due to 
the quality risks.  
 ■ Possibility of using materials, labour and 
machinery from Spain for the project executed in 
Serbia was investigated, and no clear opportunity was 
identified.
■ Risk identification in the Serbian and Spanish markets
is created. Risk more expected to happen in Serbia 
are: financial, currency fluctuation, preconstruction
preparation, security, climate, political and supply 
chain management. Risks of significance in Spain are:
time management, contract, quality and construction 
technology.
In summary, with all the information provided in this 
paper, construction companies interested in Serbian 
market will be able to improve project management in 
areas of: cost estimation and risk control, associated with 
future projects implemented in Balkan area. The whole
costing model puts together different cost components
and can be easily updated.
References
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[3]. Smith, A. E.; Mason, A. K. (1997). Cost Estimation 
Predictive Modeling: Regression versus neural network, The
Engineering Economist: A Journal Devoted to the problems 
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Miloš Jovanović is a PhD student at University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Technical Sciences, Industrial Engineering and 
Management department. He has five year integrated study MSc degree in Electrical Engineering, from University of Novi
Sad. After that he finished international two year master program in Industrial Management and obtained joint degree
from 3 Universities: Politecnico de Madrid, Politecnico di Milano and Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) Stockholm. He 
has done 6 month intership at Planet Cluster construction consultancy company in Madrid, where important input to this 
research paper was created. His research field is Project Management.  
José Moreno Pérez is Professor of Business Administration degree in Industrial Engineering in the Department of Industrial 
Engineering, Business Administration and Statistics, School of Industrial Engineering at the Polytechnic University of 
Madrid. He has a PhD in Industrial Engineering from the Polytechnic University of Madrid. He has long working experience 
as an auditor and his research field is Management Control.
Bojan Lalić, M. Sc., graduated at Faculty of Technical Sciences at University of Novi Sad, Serbia in the field of industrial 
engineering and management. Since 2002 he is working as research and teaching assistant within courses Operation 
Management, Production Systems, Strategic Project Management and Electronic Business. He is author and co-author of 
numerous papers in international Journals. Bojan is lecturer at MBA program and specialistic study programmes. M. Sc. 
Lalic is Institut Program Manager at Cisco Entrepreneur Institute.
Vladimir Todorović is M. Sc. student at University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Technical Sciences, Industrial Engineering and 
Management department. He has five year integrated study MSc degree in Electrical Engineering, at the Department
of Power, Electronics and Telecommunications Engineering at University of Novi Sad. He was a project management 
member of the first student Tempus project implemented in Serbia: “Implementation of Students’ Parliament in Serbia
and Montenegro”. His research field is Innovation and Project Management.