5. JANUAR 2005 5 JANUARY 2005 Št. / No 4 19 GRADBENIŠTVO CONSTRUCTION Št. / No 1 POSLOVNE TENDENCE V GRADBENIŠTVU, SLOVENIJA, DECEMBER 2004 BUSINESS TENDENCY IN CONSTRUCTION, SLOVENIA, DECEMBER 2004 Decembra so direktorji ocenili tendence v gradbeništvu slabše kot pretekli mesec. Kazalec zaupanja se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem znižal za 5 odstotnih točk. Bil je enak kot isti mesec lani, hkrati pa za 1 odstotno točko pod lanskim povprečjem. In December 2004, managers estimated business tendencies in construction worse than in the previous month. The confidence indicator fell by 5 percentage points compared to the previous month. It was the same as in December 2003 and fell by 1 percentage point compared to last year’s average. Na gibanje kazalca zaupanja v tem mesecu je vplivalo znižanje sedanjih skupnih naročil in pričakovanega zaposlovanja. The evolution of the confidence indicator in this month was influenced by the fall of overall order books and the expectated employment. Kazalci stanj so se v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem večinoma poslabšali. Pričakovanja za naslednje tri mesece, če izvzamemo pričakovana naročila, niso ugodna. Observed indicators for appreciation of the situation deteriorated compared to the previous month. The expectations for the next three months are not favourable, except for expected orders. 1. KAZALEC ZAUPANJA V GRADBENIŠTVU 1) V SLOVENIJI, MAREC 2002 – DECEMBER 2004 CONSTRUCTION CONFIDENCE INDICATOR 1) IN SLOVENIA, MARCH 2002 – DECEMBER 2004 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D Slov enija / Slov enia pov prečje / av erage © SURS 1) Kazalec zaupanja je povprečje odgovorov (ravnotežij) na vprašanji o sedanjih skupnih naročilih in pričakovanem zaposlovanju. The confidence indicator is an average of responses (balances) to questions on overall order books assessments and employment expectations. Statistične informacije, št. 4/2005 2 Rapid reports No 4/2005 2. GIBANJE EKONOMSKIH KAZALCEV V GRADBENIŠTVU V SLOVENIJI, MAREC 2002 - DECEMBER 2004 EVOLUTION OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS IN CONSTRUCTION IN SLOVENIA, MARCH 2002 - DECEMBER 2004 Obseg gradbenih del / Assessment of building activ ity -40 -20 0 20 40 60 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS -40 -20 0 20 40 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Poslovno stanje / Business situation Tehnične zmogljivosti1) / Technical capacity 1) 0 5 10 15 20 25 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Zagotovljeno delo2) / Assured w ork in hand2) 3,5 3,8 4,1 4,4 4,7 5,0 5,3 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D mesec/month © SURS Ocena stanj Appreciation of situation Pričakovanja v naslednjih 3 mesecih Expectations over the next 3 months -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Skupna naročila / Ov erall order books -60 -10 40 90 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Pričakovana skupna naročila / Order books ex pectations -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Zaposlovanje / Employ ment -40 -20 0 20 40 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje / Employ ment ex pectations Cene / Prices -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Pričakovane cene / Price ex pectations -10 0 10 20 30 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS  originalni podatki raw data - - - - - povprečje average 1) Količina in kakovost opreme glede na povpraševanje v naslednjih 12 mesecih. / Amount and quality of equipment regarding expected demand in the next 12 months. 2) Že začeto ali s pogodbami dogovorjeno delo v primeru normalnih delovnih ur. / With normal working hours, works in progress and contracts in hand. Statistične informacije, št. 4/2005 Rapid reports No 4/2005 3 3.1 Gibanje ekonomskih kazalcev glede na vrsto gradbenih objektov, stavbe, december 2003 - december 2004 Evolution of economic indicators by the type of construction, buildings, December 2003 - December 2004 Obseg gradbenih del / Assessment of building activ ity -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Poslovno stanje / Business situation -40 -20 0 20 40 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Tehnične zmogljivosti1) / Technical capacity 1) -5 0 5 10 15 20 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Zagotovljeno delo2) / Assured w ork in hand2) 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 5,5 6,0 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D mesec/month © SURS Ocena stanj Appreciation of situation Pričakovanja v naslednjih 3 mesecih Expectations over the next 3 months Skupna naročila / Ov erall order books -40 -20 0 20 40 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Pričakovana skupna naročila / Order books ex pectations -30 -10 10 30 50 70 90 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Zaposlovanje / Employ ment -20 -10 0 10 20 30 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje / Employ ment ex pectations -40 -20 0 20 40 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Cene / Prices -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Pričakovane cene / Price ex pectations 0 10 20 30 40 50 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS  stavbe buildings  gradbeništvo construction - - - - - - povprečje average 1) Količina in kakovost opreme glede na povpraševanje v naslednjih 12 mesecih. / Amount and quality of equipment regarding expected demand in the next 12 months. 2) Že začeto ali s pogodbami dogovorjeno delo v primeru normalnih delovnih ur. / With normal working hours, works in progress and contracts in hand. Statistične informacije, št. 4/2005 4 Rapid reports No 4/2005 3.2 Gibanje ekonomskih kazalcev glede na vrsto gradbenih objektov, stanovanjske stavbe, december 2003 - december 2004 Evolution of economic indicators by the type of construction, residential buildings, December 2003 - December 2004 Obseg gradbenih del / Assessment of building activ ity -40 -10 20 50 80 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Poslovno stanje / Business situation -30 -10 10 30 50 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Tehnične zmogljivosti1) / Technical capacity 1) -15 -5 5 15 25 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Zagotovljeno delo2) / Assured w ork in hand2) 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 5,5 6,0 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D mesec/month © SURS Ocena stanj Appreciation of situation Pričakovanja v naslednjih 3 mesecih Expectations over the next 3 months Skupna naročila / Ov erall order books -45 -25 -5 15 35 55 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Pričakovana skupna naročila / Order books ex pectations -50 -20 10 40 70 100 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Zaposlovanje / Employ ment -30 -10 10 30 50 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje / Employ ment ex pectations -40 -20 0 20 40 60 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Cene / Prices -40 -20 0 20 40 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Pričakovane cene / Price ex pectations 0 20 40 60 80 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS  stanovanjske stavbe residential buildings  gradbeništvo construction - - - - - - povprečje average 1) Količina in kakovost opreme glede na povpraševanje v naslednjih 12 mesecih. / Amount and quality of equipment regarding expected demand in the next 12 months. 2) Že začeto ali s pogodbami dogovorjeno delo v primeru normalnih delovnih ur. / With normal working hours, works in progress and contracts in hand. Statistične informacije, št. 4/2005 Rapid reports No 4/2005 5 3.3 Gibanje ekonomskih kazalcev glede na vrsto gradbenih objektov, gradbeni inženirski objekti, december 2003 - december 2004 Evolution of economic indicators by the type of construction, civil engineering, December 2003 - December 2004 Obseg gradbenih del / Assessment of building activ ity -60 -30 0 30 60 90 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Poslovno stanje / Business situation -40 -20 0 20 40 60 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Tehnične zmogljivosti1) / Technical capacity 1) 0 10 20 30 40 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Zagotovljeno delo2) / Assured w ork in hand2) 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 5,5 6,0 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D mesec/month © SURS Ocena stanj Appreciation of situation Pričakovanja v naslednjih 3 mesecih Expectations over the next 3 months Skupna naročila / Ov erall order books -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Pričakovana skupna naročila / Order books ex pectations -70 -30 10 50 90 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Zaposlovanje / Employ ment -30 -15 0 15 30 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje / Employ ment ex pectations -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Cene / Prices -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Pričakovane cene / Price ex pectations -10 0 10 20 30 40 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS  gradbeni inženirski objekti civil engineering  gradbeništvo construction - - - - - - povprečje average 1) Količina in kakovost opreme glede na povpraševanje v naslednjih 12 mesecih. / Amount and quality of equipment regarding expected demand in the next 12 months. 2) Že začeto ali s pogodbami dogovorjeno delo v primeru normalnih delovnih ur. / With normal working hours, works in progress and contracts in hand. Statistične informacije, št. 4/2005 6 Rapid reports No 4/2005 4.1 Gibanje ekonomskih kazalcev v podjetjih z dejavnostjo gradnja objektov in delov objektov, december 2003 - december 2004 Evolution of economic indicators in enterprises engaged in construction works, December 2003 - December 2004 Obseg gradbenih del / Assessment of building activ ity -70 -20 30 80 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Poslovno stanje / Business situation -40 -20 0 20 40 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Tehnične zmogljivosti1) / Technical capacity 1) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Zagotovljeno delo2) / Assured w ork in hand2) 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 5,5 6,0 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D mesec/month © SURS Ocena stanj Appreciation of situation Pričakovanja v naslednjih 3 mesecih Expectations over the next 3 months Skupna naročila / Ov erall order books -40 -20 0 20 40 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Pričakovana skupna naročila / Order books ex pectations -60 -10 40 90 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Zaposlovanje / Employ ment -20 -10 0 10 20 30 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje / Employ ment ex pectations -40 -20 0 20 40 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Cene / Prices -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Pričakovane cene / Price ex pectations -10 0 10 20 30 40 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS  gradnja objektov in delov objektov construction works  gradbeništvo construction - - - - - - povprečje average 1) Količina in kakovost opreme glede na povpraševanje v naslednjih 12 mesecih. / Amount and quality of equipment regarding expected demand in the next 12 months. 2) Že začeto ali s pogodbami dogovorjeno delo v primeru normalnih delovnih ur. / With normal working hours, works in progress and contracts in hand. Statistične informacije, št. 4/2005 Rapid reports No 4/2005 7 4.2 Gibanje ekonomskih kazalcev v podjetjih z dejavnostjo inštalacije pri gradnjah, december 2003 - december 2004 Evolution of economic indicators in enterprises engaged in installing equipment and fixtures, December 2003 - December 2004 Obseg gradbenih del / Assessment of building activ ity -40 -20 0 20 40 60 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Poslovno stanje / Business situation -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Tehnične zmogljivosti1) / Technical capacity 1) -20 -10 0 10 20 30 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Zagotovljeno delo2) / Assured w ork in hand2) 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 5,5 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D mesec/month © SURS Ocena stanj Appreciation of situation Pričakovanja v naslednjih 3 mesecih Expectations over the next 3 months Skupna naročila / Ov erall order books -40 -20 0 20 40 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Pričakovana skupna naročila / Order books ex pectations -60 -30 0 30 60 90 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Zaposlovanje / Employ ment -40 -20 0 20 40 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje / Employ ment ex pectations -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Cene / Prices -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Pričakovane cene / Price ex pectations -30 -15 0 15 30 45 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS  inštalacije pri gradnjah installation of equipment and fixtures  gradbeništvo construction - - - - - - povprečje average 1) Količina in kakovost opreme glede na povpraševanje v naslednjih 12 mesecih. / Amount and quality of equipment regarding expected demand in the next 12 months. 2) Že začeto ali s pogodbami dogovorjeno delo v primeru normalnih delovnih ur. / With normal working hours, works in progress and contracts in hand. Statistične informacije, št. 4/2005 8 Rapid reports No 4/2005 4.3 Gibanje ekonomskih kazalcev v podjetjih z dejavnostjo zaključna gradbena dela, december 2003 - december 2004 Evolution of economic indicators in enterprises engaged in finishing works, December 2003 - December 2004 Obseg gradbenih del / Assessment of building activ ity -60 -20 20 60 100 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Poslovno stanje / Business situation -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Tehnične zmogljivosti1) / Technical capacity 1) -15 -5 5 15 25 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Zagotovljeno delo2) / Assured w ork in hand2) 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0 6,0 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D mesec/month © SURS Ocena stanj Appreciation of situation Pričakovanja v naslednjih 3 mesecih Expectations over the next 3 months Skupna naročila / Ov erall order books -40 -10 20 50 80 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Pričakovana skupna naročila / Order books ex pectations -60 -10 40 90 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Zaposlovanje / Employ ment -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje / Employ ment ex pectations -30 -10 10 30 50 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Cene / Prices -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Pričakovane cene / Price ex pectations -20 0 20 40 D 2003 J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS  zaključna gradbena dela finishing works  gradbeništvo construction - - - - - - povprečje average 1) Količina in kakovost opreme glede na povpraševanje v naslednjih 12 mesecih. / Amount and quality of equipment regarding expected demand in the next 12 months. 2) Že začeto ali s pogodbami dogovorjeno delo v primeru normalnih delovnih ur. / With normal working hours, works in progress and contracts in hand. Statistične informacije, št. 4/2005 Rapid reports No 4/2005 9 5. GIBANJE EKONOMSKIH KAZALCEV V GRADBENIŠTVU V EU, MAREC 2002 - DECEMBER 20041) EVOLUTION OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS IN CONSTRUCTION IN THE EU, MARCH 2002 – DECEMBER 20041) Kazalec zaupanja2 / Confidence indicator2 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Obseg gradbenih del / Assessment of building activ ity -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Skupna naročila / Ov erall order books -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Zagotovljeno delo3 / Assured w ork in hand3 7,0 7,5 8,0 8,5 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D mesec/month © SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje / Employ ment ex pectations -15 -10 -5 0 5 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS Pričakovane cene / Price ex pectations -10 -5 0 5 10 15 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D % © SURS 1) Podatki o EU za zadnji mesec nam niso na voljo. Podatki so desezonirani. / Data for the EU for the last month are not available. Data are seasonally adjusted. 2) Kazalec zaupanja je povprečje ravnotežij na vprašanji o sedanjih skupnih naročilih in pričakovanem zaposlovanju. The confidence indicator is an average of balances to questions on overall order books assessments and employment expectations. 3) Že začeto ali s pogodbami dogovorjeno delo v primeru normalnih delovnih ur. / With normal working hours, works in progress and contracts in hand. Statistične informacije, št. 4/2005 10 Rapid reports No 4/2005 6. OMEJITVENI DEJAVNIKI V GRADBENIŠTVU V SLOVENIJI, MAREC 2002 - DECEMBER 2004 FACTORS LIMITING BUILDING ACTIVITY IN SLOVENIA, MARCH 2002 - DECEMBER 2004 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D ni omejitev / no limits težav e s pov prašev anjem / w eakness in demand težav e s ponudbo / supply difficulties hude omejitv e / sev ere obstacles © SURS Graf ponazarja delež zaposlenih v gradbeništvu, ki se soočajo z naslednjimi skupinami težav: - Skupina "ni omejitev" zajema zaposlene, ki nimajo omejitev. - Skupina "težave s povpraševanjem" zajema zaposlene, ki imajo težave z nezadostnim povpraševanjem in konkurenco v dejavnosti. - Skupina "težave s ponudbo" zajema zaposlene, ki imajo težave s slabimi vremenskimi pogoji, visokimi finančnimi stroški, visokimi stroški materiala in dela, težave pri pridobivanju kreditov. V to skupnino sodijo tudi podjetja, ki imajo težave s pomanjkanjem usposobljenih delavcev, opreme in materialov. - Skupina "hude omejitve" zajema zaposlene, ki imajo hkrati težave tako z dejavniki iz skupine "šibko povpraševanje" kot tudi z dejavniki iz skupine "težave s preskrbo". The chart on production obstacles shows the share of employees who are facing the following groups of problems: - Group "no limits" includes employees with no limits in building activity. - Group "weakness in demand" includes employees who are facing insufficient demand and competition in own sector. - Group "supply difficulties" includes employees who are facing bad weather conditions, high cost of finance, materials and/or labour; difficulties with access to bank credits, lack of equipment, and shortage of skilled labour and shortage of materials. - Group "severe obstacles" includes employees who are facing at the same time problems from the group "weakness in demand" and those from the group "supply difficulties". Statistične informacije, št. 4/2005 Rapid reports No 4/2005 11 METODOLOŠKA POJASNILA METHODOLOGICAL EXPLANATIONS NAMEN STATISTIČNEGA RAZISKOVANJA PURPOSE OF STATISTICAL SURVEY Namen kvalitativne Ankete o poslovnih tendencah v gradbeništvu (PA-GRAD/M) je mesečno pridobivanje informacij o trenutnih stanjih glavnih ekonomskih kazalcev ter ocenitev njihovega gibanja v naslednjih mesecih. Rezultati anket so osnova za izračun kazalca zaupanja v gradbeništvu. The purpose of the qualitative Survey on Business Tendency in Construction (hereinafter: PA-GRAD/M) is to get monthly information about current situations of major economic indicators and to evaluate their movement in the following months. The results of the survey are the basis for evaluation of the construction confidence indicator. Anketo o poslovnih tendencah v gradbeništvu izvajamo v Sloveniji od marca 2002 s poenotenim vprašalnikom, na podlagi poenotene metodologije in z enako periodiko, kot jo izvajajo v državah članicah Evropske unije že več desetletij. Zato so vsi podatki neposredno primerljivi. We have been carrying out the Survey on Business Tendency in Construction in Slovenia since March 2002 with the harmonised questionnaire, methodology and periodicity, which have been used in EU Member States for several decades. Therefore, all data are directly comparable. ENOTE OPAZOVANJA OBSERVATION UNITS Opazujemo podjetja, ki so razvrščena v gradbeništvo, to je v oddelek Standardne klasifikacije dejavnosti (SKD) 45 in imajo 11 zaposlenih ali več, ter so bila izbrana na podlagi dveh meril: We are monitoring units that are registered in construction – division 45 of the Standard Classification of Activities (SKD) and have 11 or more employees. They were selected by two criteria: − in sicer velikosti (število zaposlenih, skladno z zakonom o gospodarskih družbah) in − razvrstitve podjetja po SKD-ju. − the size of the enterprise (the number of employees in accordance with the Companies Act) − classification of the enterprise according to the SKD. VIRI SOURCES Na vprašalnik odgovarjajo direktorji podjetij ali drugi vodilni delavci med 1. in 10. v mesecu. Persons responding to the monthly questionnaire are managers of enterprises or other executives. They respond between the 1st and the 10th in the month. ZAJETJE COVERAGE V anketi sodeluje 400 izbranih gradbenih podjetij. V anketo smo zajeli vsa velika in srednjevelika podjetja in vsa mala podjetija z 11 zaposlenimi in več. Approximately 400 enterprises participate in the survey. We included all large and medium-sized enterprises and all small enterprises with 11 employees and more. NAČIN ZBIRANJA PODATKOV METHOD OF DATA COLLECTING Anketo izvajamo mesečno po pošti. The survey is carried out monthly by mail. UTEŽEVANJE ODGOVOROV WEIGHTS FOR RESPONSES Odgovori so uteženi tako, da odražajo relativno pomembnost posameznega podjetja v vzorcu. Znotraj oddelkov SKD so odgovori uteženi s številom zaposlenih. Responses to individual questions are weighted so that they reflect relative importance of individual enterprise in the panel. Inside divisions of Standard Classification of Activities (SKD) responses are weighted with the number of employees. NEODGOVORI NON-RESPONSES Neodgovore vsak mesec obdelamo skladno s poenoteno metodologijo; delež neodgovorov se giba med 5-10 % (povprečno 8 %). Non-responses are processed every month in accordance with the harmonised methodology and vary between 5 and 10% (8% on average). DEFINICIJE DEFINITIONS Grafikoni prikazujejo ravnotežja po posameznih vprašanjih. Ravnotežje je razlika med pozitivnimi in negativnimi odgovori, izražena v odstotkih. Ravnotežja prikazujejo gibanje opazovanih ekonomskih spremenljivk (stanj in pričakovanj), ne pa dejanskih velikosti ekonomskih kazalcev. The charts show the balance by individual questions. The balance is the difference between positive and negative answers, expressed in percent. The balance shows the movement of observed economic variables (present situation and future expectations), and not the real size of economic indicators. Kazalec zaupanja je povprečje odgovorov (ravnotežij) na vprašanja o sedanjih skupnih naročilih in pričakovanemu zaposlovanju. Confidence indicator is defined as the arithmetic mean of the answers (balances) to the questions on order book assessments and employment expectations. Statistične informacije, št. 4/2005 12 Rapid reports No 4/2005 OBJAVLJANJE PODATKOV PUBLISHING Sodelujoči v anketi prejmejo informacijo o gradbeništvu kot celoti, o oddelku SKD, v katerega se po dejavnosti razvrščajo in glede na vrsto gradnje, vendar le, če so izpolnili vprašalnik za tekoči mesec. Persons participating in the survey get information for construction, division in which they are classified and for the type of construction. They get it only if they responded in the current month. Ostalim uporabnikom so dostopni podatki na ravni gradbeništva in njegovih skupin ter podatki glede na vrsto gradnje. Slednji so mesečno objavljeni v Statističnih informacijah – Poslovne tendence v gradbeništvu in v podatkovni bazi SI-STAT na naslovu http://www.stat.si. Other users can get data for construction and its groups, size of enterprises and type of construction. Data are published in the Rapid Reports – Business Tendency in Construction and in the database SI-STAT which is available on the http://www.stat.si/eng. VPRAŠANJA: QUESTIONS: • Obseg gradbenih del v zadnjih 3 mesecih: večji, enak, manjši? • Building activity over the past 3 months: increased, remained unchanged, decreased? • Dejavniki, ki omejujejo gradbeno dejavnost: ni omejitev, nezadostno povpraševanje, slabi vremenski pogoji, visoki stroški materiala, visoki stroški dela, visoki finančni stroški, težave pri pridobivanju kreditov, pomanjkanje usposobljenih delavcev, pomanjkanje opreme, pomanjkanje materialov, velika konkurenca v dejavnosti, ostalo? • Factors limiting building activity: none, insufficient demand, bad weather conditions, high cost of material, high cost of labour, high cost of capital, access to bank credit, shortage of skilled labour, shortage of equipment, shortage of material, competition in own sector, other? • Sedanja naročila v tujini: višja kot normalna, normalna, nižja kot normalna? • Assessment of foreign order books: above normal, normal, below normal? • Sedanja domača naročila: višja kot normalna, normalna, nižja kot normalna? • Assessment of domestic order books: above normal, normal, below normal? • Sedanja skupna naročila: višja kot normalna, normalna, nižja kot normalna? • Assessment of overall order books: above normal, normal, below normal? • Pričakovana naročila v naslednjih 3 mesecih: zrasla, ostala nespremenjena, padla? • Expected order books over the next 3 months: increase, remain unchanged, decrease? • Zaposlovanje v zadnjem mesecu: povečalo, ostalo enako, zmanjšalo? • Assessment of employment: increased, remained unchanged, decreased? • Pričakovano zaposlovanje v naslednjih 3 mesecih: povečalo, ostalo enako, zmanjšalo? • Employment expectations over the next 3 months: increase, remain unchanged, decrease? • Cene so se: zvišale, ostale enake, znižale? • Assessment of prices: increased, remained unchanged, decreased? • Pričakovane cene v naslednjih 3 mesecih: naraščale, ostale enake, padale? • Expected prices over the next 3 months: increase, remain unchanged, decrease? • Tehnične zmogljivosti glede na povpraševanje v naslednjih 12 mesecih: več kot zadostne, zadostne, nezadostne? • Technical capacity regarding expected demand in the next 12 months: more than sufficient, sufficient, not sufficient? • V primeru normalnih delovnih ur že začeto ali s pogodbami zagotovljeno dela za: .... mesecev? • With normal working hours, the work in hand and work already contracted for …. months? • Poslovno stanje v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem: boljše, enako, slabše? • Business situation compared to the previous month: better, the same, worse? Statistične informacije, št. 4/2005 Rapid reports No 4/2005 13 KOMENTAR COMMENT Decembra so direktorji ocenili tendence v gradbeništvu slabše kot pretekli mesec. Kazalec zaupanja se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem znižal za 5 odstotnih točk. Bil je enak kot isti mesec lani, hkrati pa za 1 odstotno točko pod lanskim povprečjem. In December 2004, managers estimated business tendencies in construction worse than in the previous month. The confidence indicator fell by 5 percentage points compared to the previous month. It was the same as in December 2003 and fell by 1 percentage point compared to last year’s average. POSLOVNO STANJE BUSINESS SITUATION Ocena poslovnega stanja se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem zvišala za 3 odstotne točke. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani je bila višja za 1 odstotno točko in 6 odstotnih točk nad lanskim povprečjem. The evaluation of the business situation rose by 3 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to December 2003 it was up by 1 percentage point and compared to last year’s average by 6 percentage points. OBSEG GRADBENIH DEL BUILDING ACTIVITY Ocena obsega gradbenih del se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem znižala za 13 odstotnih točk. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani je bila nižja za 15 odstotnih točk in 2 odstotni točki nad povprečjem lanskega leta. The evaluation of the building activity fell by 13 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to December 2003 it was down by 15 percentage points but up by 2 percentage points compared to last year’s average. SKUPNA NAROČILA IN PRIČAKOVANA SKUPNA NAROČILA OVERALL ORDERS AND EXPECTED ORDERS Vrednost kazalca skupnih naročil se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem znižala za 9 odstotnih točk. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila višja za 5 odstotnih točk in za 13 odstotnih točk nad lanskim povprečjem. The value of the overall orders indicator fell by 9 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to December 2003 it was up by 5 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 13 percentage points. Vrednost kazalca pričakovanih skupnih naročil za naslednje 3 mesece se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem zvišala za 9 odstotnih točk. Bila je enaka kot isti mesec lani in 35 odstotnih točk pod lanskim povprečjem. The value of the expected orders for the next three months rose by 9 percentage points compared to the previous month. It was the same as in December 2003 but down by 35 percentage points compared to last year’s average. ZAPOSLOVANJE IN PRIČAKOVANO ZAPOSLOVANJE EMPLOYMENT AND EXPECTED EMPLOYMENT Ocena zaposlovanja se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem zvišala za 4 odstotne točke. Bila je enaka kot isti mesec lani in 7 odstotnih točk nad povprečjem lanskega leta. The evaluation of the employment indicator rose by 4 percentage points compared to the previous month. It was the same as in December 2003 and up by 7 percentage points compared to last year’s average. Ocena pričakovanega zaposlovanja se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem znižala za 1 odstotno točko. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila nižja za 5 odstotnih točk in 16 odstotnih točk pod povprečjem lanskega leta. The evaluation of expected employment fell by 1 percentage point compared to the previous month. Compared to December 2003 it was down by 5 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 16 percentage points. CENE IN CENOVNA PRIČAKOVANJA PRICES AND PRICE EXPECTATIONS Vrednost kazalca cen se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem znižala za 7 odstotnih točk. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila višja za 8 odstotnih točk in 2 odstotni točki nad povprečjem lanskega leta. The value of the prices indicator fell by 7 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to December 2003 it was up by 8 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 2 percentage points. Cenovna pričakovanja za naslednje 3 mesece so se v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem znižala za 3 odstotne točke. Bila so enaka kot isti mesec lani in 1 odstotno točko pod povprečjem lanskega leta. Price expectations for the next three months fell by 3 percentage points compared to the previous month. They were the same as in December 2003 and down by 1 percentage point compared to last year’s average. TEHNIČNE ZMOGLJIVOSTI TECHNICAL CAPACITY Vrednost kazalca tehničnih zmogljivosti vključuje oceno količine in kakovosti opreme glede na povpraševanje v naslednjih 12 mesecih. The value of the technical capacity indicator includes the evaluation of the quantity and quality of equipment regarding expected demand in the next 12 months. Kazalec se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem zvišal za 4 odstotne točke. Glede na isti mesec lani je bil višji za 11 Compared to the previous month the indicator rose by 4 percentage points. Compared to December 2003 it was up by Statistične informacije, št. 4/2005 14 Rapid reports No 4/2005 odstotnih točk in 4 odstotne točke nad povprečjem lanskega leta. 11 percentage point and 4 percentage points above last year’s average. ZAGOTOVLJENO DELO ASSURED WORK Vrednost kazalca zagotovljenega dela vključuje oceno števila mesecev, za katere je delo zagotovljeno s pogodbami. The value of the assured work indicator includes the evaluation of the number of months for which work is assured by contracts. V decembru so imela podjetja s pogodbami zagotovljeno delo v povprečju za 4,2 meseca. Vrednost kazalca je bila nižja za 0,5 meseca glede na pretekli mesec. Bila je enaka kot isti mesec lani in 0,1 meseca višja od povprečja lanskega leta. In December 2004, enterprises had work assured for 4.2 months on average. The indicator was down by 0.5 month compared to the previous month. It was the same as in December 2003 and up by 0.1 month compared to last year’s average. OMEJITVENI DEJAVNIKI LIMITING FACTORS Med omejitvenimi dejavniki v gradbeništvu so prevladovali dejavniki iz skupine hude omejitve. V tem mesecu se je z njimi spopadalo 58 % zaposlenih (oziroma 42 % podjetij). Among factors limiting building activity, severe obstacles prevailed. In December 2004, 58% of employees (42% of enterprises) were faced with them. Sledili so omejitveni dejavniki iz skupine težave s ponudbo. V tem mesecu se je z njimi srečevalo 23 % zaposlenih (oziroma 38 % podjetij). The second most important obstacles were supply difficulties. In December 2004, 23% of employees (38% of enterprises) faced them. Z dejavniki iz skupine šibko povpraševanje se je v tem mesecu srečalo 11 % zaposlenih (oziroma 14 % podjetij). The third most important obstacles were demand difficulties. In December 2004, 11% of employees (14% of enterprises) faced them. Le 8 % zaposlenih (oziroma 6 % podjetij) v tem mesecu ni imelo omejitev v proizvodnji. Only 8% of employees (6% of enterprises) experienced no obstacles in December 2004. Podrobnejši pregled omejitvenih dejavnikov v gradbeništvu pokaže, da je/so v tem mesecu:1 A more detailed overview of factors limiting building activity shows that in December:1 • 50 % podjetij (ali 65 % zaposlenih) omejevala velika konkurenca v dejavnosti; • 50% of enterprises (or 65% of employees) were limited by competition in own sector; • 37 % podjetij (ali 41 % zaposlenih) omejevalo pomanjkanje usposobljenih delavcev; • 37% of enterprises (or 41% of employees) were limited by shortage of skilled labour; • 34 % podjetij (ali 40 % zaposlenih) omejevali visoki stroški dela; • 34% of enterprises (or 40% of employees) were limited by high costs of labour; • 31 % podjetij (ali 31 % zaposlenih) omejevali visoki stroški materiala; • 31% of enterprises (or 31% of employees) were limited by high costs of material; • 23 % podjetij (ali 22 % zaposlenih) omejevali slabi vremenski pogoji; • 23% of enterprises (or 22% of employees) were limited by bad weather conditions; • 20 % podjetij (ali 20 % zaposlenih) omejevali visoki finančni stroški; • 20% of enterprises (or 20% of employees) were limited by high costs of capital; • 13 % podjetij (ali 10 % zaposlenih) omejevalo nezadostno povpraševanje; • 13% of enterprises (or 10% of employees) were limited by insufficient demand; • 13 % podjetij (ali 7 % zaposlenih) omejevali drugi dejavniki; • 13% of enterprises (or 7% of employees) were limited by other factors; • 11 % podjetij (ali 10 % zaposlenih) omejevale težave pri pridobivanju kreditov; • 11% of enterprises (or 10% of employees) were limited by access to bank credits; • 6 % podjetij (ali 8 % zaposlenih) ni imelo omejitev; • 6% of enterprises (or 8% of employees) experienced no limits; • 1 % podjetij (ali 4 % zaposlenih) omejevalo pomanjkanje materialov; • 1% of enterprises (or 4% of employees) were limited by shortage of material; • 1 % podjetij (ali 1 % zaposlenih) omejevalo pomanjkanje opreme. • 1% of enterprises (or 1% of employees) was limited by lack of equipment. 1 Podjetja lahko označijo več dejavnikov, ki omejujejo njihovo proizvodnjo, zato vsota odstotkov ni 100. Enterprises can select several factors limiting their business, so the total is not 100%. Statistične informacije, št. 4/2005 Rapid reports No 4/2005 15 Največja omejitev v gradbeništvu je velika konkurenca v dejavnosti, sledijo pomanjkanje usposobljenih delavcev in visoki stroški dela. The most important factor limiting building activity is competition in own sector, followed by shortage of skilled labour and high costs of labour. Le 6 % podjetij v gradbeništvu ni imelo omejitev. Only 6% of enterprises experienced no limits in building activity. Statistično raziskovanje je sofinancirala Evropska komisija. Za objavljene podatke in besedila je odgovoren izključno Statistični urad Republike Slovenije in ne Evropska komisija. The business survey is co-financed by the European Commission. However, the European Commission accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever with regard to the material published in this document. Sestavila / Prepared by: Jelena Čirjakovič Izdaja, založba in tisk Statistični urad Republike Slovenije, Ljubljana, Vožarski pot 12 - Uporaba in objava podatkov dovoljena le z navedbo vira - Odgovarja generalna direktorica mag. Irena Križman - Urednica zbirke Statistične informacije Marina Urbas - Slovensko besedilo jezikovno uredila Joža Lakovič - Angleško besedilo jezikovno uredil Boris Panič - Naklada 420 izvodov - ISSN zbirke Statistične informacije 1408-192X - ISSN podzbirke Gradbeništvo 1408-9300 - Informacije daje Informacijsko središče, tel. (01) 241 51 04 - El. pošta:info.stat@gov.si - http://www.stat.si. Edited, published and printed by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, Ljubljana, Vožarski pot 12 - These data can be used provided the source is acknowledged - Director-General Irena Križman - Rapid Reports editor Marina Urbas - Slovene language editor Joža Lakovič - English language editor Boris Panič - Total print run 420 copies - ISSN of Rapid Reports 1408-192X - ISSN of subcollection Construction 1408-9300 - Information is given by the Information Centre of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, tel.: +386 1 241 51 04 - E-mail: info.stat@gov.si - http://www.stat.si.