.^'IMAD O fü Q) £ u E o >< O Ü) m CD fN O u 0) Ö cu _Q o Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3826 No. 10 / Vol. XIX / 2013 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Responsible Person: Boštjan Vasle, MSc, Director Editor in Chief: Barbara Ferk, MSc Authors of Current Economic Trends (listed alphabetically): Jure Brložnik, Urška Brodar, Gonzalo Caprirolo, Janez Dodič, Marjan Hafner, MSc, Matevž Hribernik, Slavica Jurančič, Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič, Janez Kušar, Urška Lušina, MSc, Jože Markič, PhD, Helena Mervic, Tina Nenadič, MSc, Mitja Perko, MSc, Jure Povšnar, Ana T. Selan, MSc, Dragica Šuc, MSc Author of Selected Topic: Matevž Hribernik (The Doing Business 2014 report by the World Bank) Editorial Board: Lidija Apohal Vučkovič, Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Lejla Fajič , Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, Boštjan Vasle, MSc Translator: Marija Kavčič Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Bibijana Cirman Naglič Print: SURS Circulation: 80 copies © The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the spotlight................................................................................................................................................................3 Current economic trends..............................................................................................................................................5 International environment...............................................................................................................................................7 Economic developments in Slovenia.............................................................................................................................8 Labour market..................................................................................................................................................................13 Prices..................................................................................................................................................................................15 Balance of payments.......................................................................................................................................................18 Financial markets.............................................................................................................................................................20 Public finance....................................................................................................................................................................22 Boxes Box 1: (In)solvency...........................................................................................................................................................10 Box 2: Absorption of Cohesion Policy funds in the programming period 2007-2013...................................................24 Selected topic The Doing Business 2014 report by the World Bank.................................................................................................27 Statistical appendix.....................................................................................................................................................29 The Economic Mirror is prepared based on statistical data available by 5 November 2013. On January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev.2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia, the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, which includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses, came into force on the mentioned date. In the Slovenian Economic Mirror, all analyses are based on the SKD 2008, except when the previous SKD 2002 classification is explicitly referred to. More general information about the introduction of the new classification is available on the SURS website http://www.stat.si/eng/ skd nace 2008.asp. All seasonally adjusted data in the Economic Mirror are calculations by IMAD. In the spotlight The slow improvement in the euro area continues; the IMF predicts a decline in GDP for this year, followed by weak growth in 2014. In August, industrial production in manufacturing and new orders increased in the euro area as a whole. Turnover in retail trade was up for the third month in a row, and construction output also continued to rise. The confidence indicators also indicate improvement in economic activity. The IMF and the European Commission forecast a 0.4% decline in euro area GDP for this year, and 1% and 1.1% growth, respectively, for 2014. The IMF stresses the completion of the banking union to prevent financial market fragmentation as a top priority for the euro area, while in the Commission's opinion, significant risks to growth stem from deleveraging, financial market fragmentation and high unemployment rate. The values of short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia show a continuation of growth in exports and construction put in place. The values of exports and construction put in place are visibly higher than at the beginning of the year, while manufacturing production and turnover in retail trade are stagnating (seasonally adjusted). However, the values of all these indicators except exports remained lower in the first eight months compared with the same period last year and do not yet indicate a year-on-year recovery of GDP in the third quarter, according to our estimate. The total value of the sentiment indicator has been almost unchanged for several months. Looking at individual confidence indicators, the value of the confidence indicator in the construction sector is improving, and so is, slightly, the value of the consumer confidence indicator; in retail trade the confidence indicator is falling, while it is stagnant in other sectors. In the last two months the labour market situation has not changed much, but it has deteriorated significantly relative to last year. The number of employed persons has remained almost unchanged since the spring (seasonally adjusted), albeit much lower than last year. On average, 119,542 persons were registered as unemployed in the first nine months of the year, 9.6% more than in the same period last year. The inflows into unemployment increased particularly due to a significant rise in first-time jobseekers and persons who became unemployed due to the termination of their fixed-term contracts, while the outflow from unemployment was mainly due to increased participation in active employment policy programmes and a lower number of persons deleted from the register for breaches of regulations. In the first eight months the average gross earnings were lower than in the same period last year, mainly on account of lower earnings in the general government sector. With unchanged monthly growth of prices, year-on-year inflation dropped to 1.3% in October. The monthly consumer price movement was mainly impacted by the usual seasonal dynamics - higher prices of clothing and footwear and lower prices of holiday packages. Monthly inflation and the decline in year-on-year inflation (from 1.4% in September) were also a result of lower prices of liquid fuels. Year-on-year inflation in the euro area declined in October, totalling 0.7% (in September 1.1%). The situation in the Slovenian banking system continues to deteriorate. The stock of domestic non-banking sector loans is much larger this year than in 2012, which is related to lower supply of funding and lower loan demand due to the bad situation in the banking sector and in the economy. Liquidity pressures on the Slovenian banking system remain significant. At the end of August the proportion of bad claims already accounted for 17.1% of the banking sector's total exposure, and the volume of bad claims almost reached EUR 8 bn. In the first three quarters impairments and provisions increased by a fifth relative to the same period last year. The consolidated balance of public finances recorded a deficit of EUR 1,268 m in the first eight months of this year. The deficit was EUR 251 m larger than in the same period last year. Revenue (EUR 9.4 bn) was down 3.5%, while expenditure (EUR 10.7 bn) was down 0.9%. All categories of revenue were lower year-on-year. Among expenditure categories, only interest payments and payments into the EU budget were up, while the largest declines were recorded for expenditures on social transfers (excluding pensions), goods and services and wages. ■o £ Q) E o £ 0 u 01 £ 01 3 U International environment Short-term indicators of economic activity and confidence indicators indicate continued weak economic recovery in the euro area in the third quarter. Following July's decline, industrial production in manufacturing increased by 1.1% in August, seasonally adjusted, being down 2.4% in year-on-year terms. New orders in the manufacturing sector also rose visibly in August, up 1.6%, seasonally adjusted. Turnover in retail trade expanded for the third month in a row, and the increase in construction output seen in the past several months continued.1 Having increased for the fifth consecutive month, the Economic Sentiment Indicator ESI approached its long-term average, while the values of some other confidence indicators (PMI, Ifo, Zew) continue to indicate improvement in euro area economic activity. The IMF forecasts a 0.4% fall in euro area GDP for this year, and 1% growth for 2014. This is a smaller decline than projected in July, by 0.2 percentage points for 2013 and by 0.1 percentage points for 2014. According to the IMF, the top priority of the euro area is to complete the banking union and reduce financial market fragmentation. In October the IMF revised downwards its forecast for global economic growth, citing the decline in economic activity in emerging countries as the main reason. World growth is expected to be slightly lower than according to the July forecast, 2.9% in 2013 and 3.6% in 2014. The main reason is weaker economic growth in emerging markets as a result of structural problems2 and a cyclical slowdown in Figure 1: Short-term indicators of economic activity in the euro area - Industrial production In manufacturing ■ Construction put in place ■ Turnover in retail trade -ESI 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 growth (tightened financial conditions, lower commodity prices). According to the IMF, global economic growth in 2014 is associated with significant downside risks related to the unstable financial system in the euro area, monetary policies of the US and slower growth in emerging market economies, in particular China. The required government bond yields declined in October in both the most vulnerable countries and those with the highest credit rating of AAA. The problems related to the US government shutdown and disagreement about lifting the debt ceiling increased investors' demand for "safer" investments, which was reflected in a decline in the yields of EU countries with the highest credit rating. The yield spreads to the German 10-year government bonds of the most vulnerable countries also declined. Figure 2: Yields on 10-year government bonds ---Spain Austria : 14 10 ;; 6 Source: Bloomberg. Interbank interest rates in the euro area did not change significantly in October and remained low, but the credit standards for euro area companies deteriorated again. The three-month EURIBOR rate has been around 0.2% since the beginning of the year (in October at 0.226%). The three-month USD and CHF LIBOR rates also remained roughly unchanged (0.24% and 0.02%, respectively). According to the ECB Euro Area Bank Lending Survey, 5% more banks reported a tightening of their credit standards than an easing in the third quarter of this year (in the first quarter 7%). The credit standards deteriorated for enterprises of all sizes and for all loan maturities, once again mainly due to the banks' negative expectations regarding the recovery in individual industries. Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. 1 Seasonally adjusted, turnover in retail trade rose by 0.7% in August and the value of construction put in place by 0.5%. 2 The IMF highlights insufficient infrastructure investment and problems on the labour market as the most problematic factors in most emerging market economies. The euro appreciated against the US dollar again in October. The value of the euro increased by 2.2% against the US dollar, to USD 1.364 to EUR 1, hitting the highest 16 8 4 2 0 level since October 2011.3 The euro remained practically unchanged against the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc and the British pound (133.32 JPY to EUR 1; 1.232 CHF to EUR 1; 0,847 GBP to EUR 1). The oil price plummeted in October following September's increase. The average price of Brent crude oil was USD 109.2 a barrel in October, down 2.1% from September and down 2.2% year-on-year. Prices of Brent crude in euros dropped by 3.7% to EUR 79.9 per barrel, and were 6.8% lower year-on-year. Non-energy commodity prices fell again in September, by 2.2%, reaching this year's low, and were 4.5% lower than the same period last year. After several months of increase, metal prices also dropped in September, by 1.7%, as a result of weaker demand from emerging economies. According to provisional data, non-energy commodity prices will also continue to decline in October. Figure 3: Prices of Brent crude oil and the USD/EUR exchange rate -Price in EUR (left axis) -Price in USD (left axis) -Exchange rate of USD to EUR (right axis) 1.8 1.6 1.2 9 1.0 0.6 20 Source: ECB, EIA; calculations by IMAD. Economic developments in Slovenia Short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia at the monthly level show a continuation of growth in exports and construction put in place. The values of exports and construction put in place are visibly higher than at the beginning of the year, while the values of manufacturing production and turnover in retail trade remain stagnant (seasonally adjusted). Compared with the same period last year, all these indicators (except exports) remained lower in the first eight months, and do not indicate a year-on-year recovery of GDP in the third quarter, according to our estimate. The total value of the sentiment indicator has been nearly unchanged for several months. Broken down by individual indicators, the confidence indicator in the construction sector is improving; the consumer confidence indicator has also increased slightly, while the confidence indicator is falling in retail trade, and stagnating in other sectors. Figure 4: Short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia , 120 g i : 110 i g : 100 ; 90 - Merchandise exports - industrial production in manufacturing Construction put in place Turnover in retail trade S2 80 70 60 50 40 !S 30 A i 1..........^ ' \ ^ \ ............i..... .........................i o ^ ^ Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Table 1: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia in % 2012 VIII 13/ VII 13 VIII 13/ VIII 12 I-VIII 13/ I-VIII 12 Exports1 1.9 -17.1 -2.5 2.1 -goods 0.8 -21.3 -3.7 1.4 -services 6.7 -1.2 1.2 5.2 Imports1 -2.6 -13.5 -6.9 -3.6 -goods -3.0 -15.6 -8.4 -3.8 -services -0.1 -2.4 1.1 -2.2 Industrial production -1.1 0.92 -3.23 -1.63 -manufacturing -2.3 -0.42 -4.13 -2.33 Construction -value of construction put in place -16.8 -2.82 -4.63 -12.43 Real turnover in retail trade -2.3 2.42 -3.73 -4.13 Nominal turnover in market services (without trade) -2.8 1.92 0.43 -1.33 Sources: BS, Eurostat, SURS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1balance of payments statistics, ^seasonally adjusted, 3working-day adjusted data. August recorded further growth in real merchandise exports, according to our estimate, and real imports also rose somewhat, seasonally adjusted.4 Real merchandise exports in August were otherwise 3.0% smaller than in the same month last year (original data), mainly due to 3 The exchange rate movement was significantly affected by the uncertainty regarding the developments in the US Congress. 4 The estimate of real merchandise exports has been made on the basis of nominal exports according to the external trade statistics and industrial producer prices on the foreign market, while real imports have been estimated based on nominal imports according to the external trade statistics and the index of import prices. 1.4 -- one working day less, according to our estimate. The base effect was also high, given the relatively strong year-on-year growth in exports in August 2012. In the first eight months as a whole, real merchandise exports were up 1.8% year-on-year, almost entirely on the back of exports of medical and pharmaceutical products and exports, i.e. re-exports, of oil and oil derivatives. The year-on-year fall in real merchandise imports in August was substantial (-7.7%), which we estimate was mainly related to the year-on-year drop in manufacturing output.5 In the first eight months of this year real merchandise imports were down 1.2% year-on-year, primarily due to shrinking domestic consumption. Figure 6: Nominal trade in services -Exports -Imports -----Exports (12-m moving ave.) -----Imports (12-m moving ave.) Figure 5: Real merchandise trade -Exports - -----Exports (12-m moving ave.) ----- Imports Imports (12-m moving ave.) Source: BS; calcualtions by IMAD. After the decline in services trade in July, nominal exports of services remained unchanged in August, while imports rose (seasonally adjusted).6 Exports of other business services and transport and travel rose modestly, while exports of the group of other services7 declined again. In the first eight months exports of services were up year-on-year (5.2%, orig.), with exports of intermediation, construction and communication services making the largest contributions to growth. August's growth in services imports was underpinned by rising imports of other business services and the group of other services. In the first eight months imports were down year-on-year (-2.2%, orig.) largely on account of smaller imports of licences, patents and copyrights, travel and miscellaneous business, professional and technical services. 5 Detailed data on the structure of merchandise imports are available only until July. The estimate is based on August's 4.1% year-on-year decline in manufacturing output, with imports of goods for production representing the largest share of merchandise imports, over a third. 6 According to the balance of payments statistics. 7 When adjusting data for seasonal effects, we include communication, construction, financial, computer and information activities, personal service activities, arts, entertainment and recreation activities, government services, insurances and licences, patents and copyrights into the group of other services. Together, they account for just over a tenth of services exports and almost a third of services imports. Source: BS; calcualtions by IMAD. Production volume in manufacturing decreased slightly again in August. Production volume in industries of higher technology intensity has been dropping since the beginning of the year; in medium-low-technology industries it rose, while in low-technology industries it remained at a similar level as at the end of last year (seasonally adjusted). Amid a decline, production volume in industries of higher technology intensity was down slightly year-on-year in the first eight months as a whole (-0.9%), with the largest fall still recorded in the manufacture of transport vehicles. Production in medium-low-technology industries in the first eight months as a whole was also lower than in the same period last year (-1.0%), despite growth. The largest decline was observed in the manufacture of non-metal mineral products, which can be explained by the still modest construction activity. Figure7: Production volume in manufacturing industries according to technology intensity -----Low-technology industries —-— Medium-low-technology industries -Medium-high and high-technology industries -Manufacturing, total Box 1: (In)solvency Short-term insolvency of business entities increased in the third quarter of this year and reached the highest level since 2008. According to AJPES records, a fifth more legal entities than in the same period last year had outstanding matured liabilities1 on average per month, and the amount of these liabilities was 11.4% higher. In the first nine months of this year the number of such legal entities rose by more than a quarter year-on-year in administrative and support service activities, and in professional, scientific and technical activities. In September this year the largest amount of outstanding liabilities was again recorded by legal entities in construction and manufacturing. Three quarters of these legal entities with outstanding liabilities were micro enterprises. In the first nine months of this year 14.8% more sole proprietors and own-account workers had outstanding matured liabilities than in the same period last year, while the average monthly amount of these liabilities was a quarter higher. The total number of compulsory settlement proceedings filed against legal persons in the first three quarters of this year has already exceeded the 2012 figure. The number of compulsory settlement proceedings started in the third quarter was the same as in the third quarter last year, being highest in trade, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles. The number of bankruptcy proceedings initiated against legal entities rose. The number of bankruptcy proceedings filed against legal entities, having averaged 132 per quarter in the period between 2009 and the end of the first half of 2013, rose to 317 in the third quarter.2 In the first nine months, 292 legal entities were deleted from the register of companies due to bankruptcy, 16% fewer than in the same period last year; in the same period, 33 sole proprietors were deleted from the register, which is 52% of the 2012 figure. The increase in the number of bankruptcy proceedings is estimated to be a result of the amendment to the ZFPPIPP,3 which was adopted to speed up the bankruptcy proceedings and prevent attrition of insolvent debtors. The amended Act makes it easier and faster for creditors to enter into the company ownership structure as economic owners and thus take over supervision of management. Moreover, the creditors in larger, permanently illiquid companies will be able - through the creditors' committee - to convert receivables into equity stakes without the consent of the owners, and thus preserve the ability of the company to continue its operations. In addition to these novelties, larger amendments to the Act are also being prepared. In line with the Act on Prevention of Late Payments, the ninth round4 of multilateral set-offs of liabilities and receivables between business entities was conducted in September. A total of 7,623 debtors reported EUR 580 m in liabilities to 28,978 creditors. More than half of debtors managed to set off their obligations, but the total amount that was set off totalled only EUR 40.3 m Tabela 2: Legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities for more than five consecutive days in a month, September 2013 Activity Number of legal entities with outstanding matured obligations, September 2013 Growth in % Average daily amount of outstanding matured liabilities, September 2013, in EUR 1.000 Growth in % Average daily amount of outstanding matured liabilities IX 13/ IX 12 I-IX 13/ I-IX 12 IX 13/ IX 12 I-IX 13/ I-IX 12 per legal entity, September 2013 in EUR 1.000 C Manufacturing 932 7.7 23.8 111,573 41.4 55.6 120 F Construction 1,566 9.7 20.3 177,312 -16.6 -7.3 113 G Trade; maintenance and repair of motor vehicles 1,492 4.5 13.5 106,314 -11.2 23.1 71 H Transportation and storage 395 4.5 11.4 32,709 19.7 -18.1 83 I Hotels and restaurants 575 13.9 23.6 38,105 109.1 63.2 66 K Financial and insurance activities 119 33.7 15.7 106,203 42.9 110.5 892 L Real estate activities 245 11.9 20.4 46,083 5.0 15.0 188 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 957 14.7 27.3 67,360 -5.5 -32.0 70 N Druge raznovrstne poslovne dejavnosti 248 19.2 31.1 16,442 -26.5 0.9 66 Other activities (A,B,D,E,J,O-S) 999 11.4 18.9 55,027 12.4 -11.4 55 TOTAL 7,528 9.9 19.9 757,128 5.5 11.4 101 Source: AJPES. 1 I.e., outstanding matured liabilities for more than five consecutive days in a month. 2 The majority of bankruptcy proceedings were filed in the sale and repair of motor vehicles; construction, manufacturing and professional, scientific and technical activities; 67% in total. 3 Official Gazette of the RS, No. 47/2013, 31 May 2013. 4 This is the thirtieth round of the compulsory multilateral set-offs since April 2011, when the Act entered into force. In all thirty rounds together the mutual indebtedness between business entities in Slovenia declined by EUR 1.7 bn. Figure 8: Legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities for more than five consecutive days in a month and the average total amount of outstanding liabilities Average no. of legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities (left axis) -Average daily amount of outstanding matured liabilities, EUR m (right axis) 7,000 6,000 5,000 1= 4,000 D Z. 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 800 700 600 500 E cc 400 =3 J= 300 200 100 0 Figure 9: Filing of bankruptcy proceedings ^■Bankruptcies against legal entities (left axis) -Personal bankruptcies against sole proprietors (right axis) 40^ I- 40 a a a a Source: AJPES, Slovenian Business Register 30 20 1 10 a a a Source: AJPES Production in all low-technology industries was down relative to the same period last year (-7.0% overall), most notably in wood-processing and furniture industries. construction of buildings, in particular non-residential buildings, is likely a consequence of the extremely low level of activity in the spring. The value of construction put in place declined in August, seasonally adjusted, but remained higher than at the beginning of the year. Having declined strongly in previous years, construction activity has picked up in all three construction segments in recent months.8 The strengthening of activity in civil-engineering works is related to the construction of municipal infrastructure co-financed by EU funds, while the rebound in the Figure 10: Value of construction put in place, 2008=100 average, seasonally adjusted E 40 20 Total Residential buildings Non-residential buildings Civil-engineering works Ji Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. 8 According to seasonally adjusted data, the value of construction put in place in the last three months was 10.0% higher than in the previous three months (March-May). The value of the stock of contracts in the construction sector indicates a continuation of favourable developments, particularly in civil engineering. The value of the stock of contracts in the construction sector in August was 29.9% higher than in August 2012, of which by as much as 72.3% in civil engineering. Data on business trends in construction also show favourable movements: the indicator of total orders has improved strongly this year, reaching the highest value since 2008 (the outburst of the crisis) in September, while the share of companies citing insufficient demand among the limiting factors to Figure 11: Total orders and insufficient demand -Insufficient demand -Total orders (right axis) Sš 100 50 i ,;s 60 i 85 ii Ji Ji ii 35 25 15 5 0 80 80 20 60 -10 40 20 0 0 -100 production dropped to the lowest level since 2008. The short-term prospects for future construction activity thus remain positive. Turnover in retail trade stagnated, turnover in the sale of motor vehicles was lower, while turnover in wholesale trade started to pick up again (seasonally adjusted). Turnover in retail trade in August was similar to that before the fluctuations in response to the increase in VAT. Within retail trade, real turnover rose most notably in the sale of automotive fuels, most likely due to increased trade in other goods and services that are also sold by companies registered in this activity,9 given that the quantity of automotive fuels sold lagged behind last year's level. After a significant decline in July, turnover in the sale and repair of motor vehicles rose slightly in August due to larger sales of new cars to legal entities. Nominal turnover in wholesale trade has been strengthening since April, except in July, but remains below the 2012 levels. Figure 12: Turnover in trade sectors -Retail trade, real ----- of which automotive fuels, real -----Sale, repair of motor vehicles, real -Wholesale trade, nom. Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Recording 1.9% growth in August (seasonally adjusted), nominal turnover in market services (excluding trade)10 continued the trend of modest growth observed since autumn2012. In August turnover rose in all main services except accommodation and food service activities, which remain at the same level as a year earlier. The largest increase was recorded in information and communication services (by 4.8%), where turnover was only a few percent below the 2008 average. The pre-crisis year average was exceeded only by turnover in transportation and storage activities, which reached one of the highest levels thus far due to its growth in the last two months. Turnover in administrative and support service activities has been strengthening significantly in 2013 particularly on 9 For example, electricity, natural gas and merchandise, and in August and September, the sale of EuroBasket 2013 tickets, memorabilia and fan gear. 10 Activities from H to N (SKD 2008) subject to the Council Regulation (EC) No. 1165/98 concerning short-term statistics. account of employment agencies, although its growth has been impacted by low turnover in travel agencies (70% of the 2008 level). The downward trend of turnover in professional and technical services continues, despite August's growth. Within these, turnover remains at one of the lowest levels since 2008 in both legal-accounting and architectural-engineering services. Figure 13: Nominal turnover in market services (other than trade) -Total -Transportation and storage (H) -----Communication activ. (J) -----Professional, technical activ. (M) -Administrative and support service activities (N) -----Accommodation and food service activities (I) JŠ J; Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. The main components of household income continued to decline in the third quarter. In the first nine months the net wage bill was down 3.9% year-on-year in real terms (-2.4% in the same period last year). Transfers to individuals and households11 in the first eight months were 3.2% lower year-on-year in real terms (-4.3% in the same period last year). The volume of consumer loans was down 8.6% year-on-year in September; in the first nine months households repaid EUR 147 m in consumer loans, slightly less than a year earlier (EUR 168 m). The volume of household loans remained almost unchanged. Household deposits in banks were down 1.9% year-on-year at the end of September; in the first nine months households reduced deposits by EUR 359 m, much more than in the same period last year (by EUR 115 m). According to the most recent SURS data, household disposable income in the first half of the year was 4.2% lower year-on-year in real terms.12 After the slight increase in consumption (particularly durable goods consumption) before the increase in VAT, short-term indicators ofhousehold consumption expenditure mainly stagnated inthe thirdquarter. Spending on durable goods,13 having been falling rapidly again since the beginning of 11 According to the consolidated global public finance balance of the MF. 12 Quarterly non-financial accounts by institutional sectors, Slovenia, 2nd quarter 2013, September 30, 2013. 13 Turnover in the sale of furniture, household appliances, construction material and audio/video recordings in specialised stores. Figure 120 14: Household consumption indicators - No. of first passenger car registrations by natural persons (left axis) - Net wage bill (left axis) - Furniture, construction material ■ Household appliances, audio and video recordings Consumer confdence indicator, seasonally adj. (right axis) 20 Ü lü 10 i? 0 E -10 o E -20 r^. -30 J^ -40 -50 -60 i^c c -70 Source: SURS, MZIP; calculations by IMAD. 2012, rose by 0.5% in August (seasonally adjusted), after the significant fluctuations in June and July related to the VAT rate increase. After the decline in the previous two months, car purchases by natural persons strengthened slightly (5%, seasonally adjusted), but the number of car registrations nevertheless remains very low.14 In October the value of the consumer confidence indicator dropped again after considerable fluctuations in previous months, which was mainly attributable to the fairly pessimistic views of consumers on saving possibilities in the next 12 months. Figure 15: Business trends - Economic sentiment ■ Retail trade - Construction Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. 14 In the first nine months the number of first car registrations by natural persons was 17.9% lower year-on-year. Amid an increase (by 8.4%) in first registrations of cars acquired by natural persons through leasing, and company-owned cars used for private purposes, the total number of first car registrations used by natural persons declined by 7.9%. See also Slovenian Economic Mirror, 9/2013. The value of the sentiment indicator has been practically unchanged since June. Confidence in the construction sector is improving, and so is, slightly, consumer confidence, but confidence in other sectors is stagnating. In October confidence improved visibly in retail trade, but consumer confidence deteriorated, so that the value of the indicator was lower than at the beginning of the year. Labour market The number of employed persons,15 which was still falling at the beginning of the year, has remained almost unchanged since spring (seasonally adjusted). In the first eight months it nevertheless remained 2.9% lower than last year (having declined most in the construction sector). The increase in registered unemployment in recent months was less pronounced than at the beginning of the year. A total of 114,669 persons were unemployed in September, slightly fewer than in August (-0.1%, seasonally adjusted), but 8.8% more than in September last year. In the third quarter the number of unemployed persons increased by 0.5%, seasonally adjusted, being up 9.4% year-on-year. On average, 119,542 persons were registered as unemployed in the first nine months of the year, 9.6% more than in the same period last year. Unemployment flows reflect a decline in economic activity and increased government engagement in active employment policy schemes. The inflow into unemployment is thus higher this year (by 8.8%), mainly due to an outstanding inflow of first-time jobseekers (up 33.2%), while the outflow Table 3: Indicators of labour market trends in % 2012 VIII 13/ VII 13 VIII 13/ VIII 12 I-VIII 13/ I-VIII 12 Labour force -1.5 -0.2 -0.5 -1.1 Persons in formal employment -1.7 -0.11 -1.9 -2.6 Employed in enterprises and organisations and by those self-employed -1.6 -0.2 -2.4 -3.1 Registered unemployed -0.5 0.41 9.9 9.7 Average nominal gross wage 0.1 -0.11 -0.4 -0.5 - private sector 0.5 0.01 -0.2 0.2 - public sector -0.9 -0.41 -0.6 -1.5 -of which general government -2.2 -0.21 -2.0 -3.1 2012 VIII 12 VII 13 VIII 13 Rate of registered unemployment (in %), seasonally adjusted 12.0 11.9 13.1 13.2 Average nominal gross wage (in EUR) 1,525.47 1,512.95 1,510.02 1,506.88 Private sector (in EUR) 1,395.84 1,393.82 1,390.09 1,391.14 Public sector (in EUR) 1,762.88 1,731.39 1,731.66 1,720.16 -of which general government (in EUR) 1,761.15 1,728.80 1,694.69 1,694.94 Sources: ESS. SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1seasonally adjusted. 15 According to SRE; these are employed and self--employed persons excluding self-employed farmers. Figure 16: Employed persons according to the statistical register and registered unemployed persons 840 800 780 760 al on 740 1= T^ 720 o 700 Ii 680 - Employed according to SRE, left axis - Registered unemployed It axis ..........1 1..........'..........'...... ..........i....... ! V "i...... .....1.............i___________ ! ^ _____i.............i-........., ..........i...... \--A • .................. .......-..........-............. 240 220 T3 200 '■TD 180 C (D 160 140 120 o 100 E C 80 60 40 tü —^ tü —^ —^ tü —^ tü —^ Source: SURS, ESS; calculations by IMAD. from unemployment (up 2.3% in the first nine months) increased particularly due to higher participation in active employment policy programmes that mean employment (public works, subsidies for self-employment). The average gross earnings per employee remained unchanged again in August (seasonally adjusted), but they were down slightly relative to the same month last year. Gross earnings in the private sector16 remained unchanged again in August (seasonally adjusted), as they had in the last year and a half.17 Gross earnings in the public sector declined by almost as much as they had increased in the previous month, mainly due to the fluctuation of wages in public corporations.18 Earnings in the government sector, which have been on a downward trend since the enforcement of the ZUJF in the middle of 2012, dropped further. In the first eight months the average gross earnings were 0.5% lower than in the same period last year. In the private sector they remained at a similar level as a year earlier, while in the government sector they were down 3.1% due to the adoption of the Table 4: Persons in formal employment by activity Number in '000 Change in Number 2012 VIII 12 VII 13 VIII 13 2012/ 2011 VIII 13/ VII 13 VIII 13/ VIII 12 I-VIII 13/ I-VIII 12 Manufacturing 182.9 182.5 177.6 177.3 -1,919 -370 -5,222 -6,296 Construction 59.8 60.2 55.5 55.5 -8,047 75 -4,651 -7,032 Market services 338.4 337.3 333.4 332.8 -3,805 -626 -4,479 -6,791 -of which: Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 107.8 107.2 103.7 103.5 -1,848 -163 -3,698 -3,863 Public services 171.6 170.6 169.4 169.2 1,438 -239 -1,421 -1,860 Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 50.7 50.8 49.1 49.2 -650 26 -1,617 -1,703 Education 65.5 64.3 64.5 64.4 778 -173 101 -237 Human health and social work activities 55.4 55.6 55.8 55.7 1,311 -92 95 79 Other 57.3 57.8 58.4 58.4 -1,632 45 597 1,168 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Table 5: Wages by activity Gross wage per employee, in EUR Change, in % 2012 VIII 2013 2012/2011 VIII 13/ VII 13 VIII 13/ VIII 12 I-VIII 13/ I-VIII 12 Private sector activities (A-N; R-S) 1,463.64 1,458.62 0.8 -0.4 0.1 0.4 Industry (B-E) 1,444.29 1,475.38 2.5 0.5 2.0 2.4 - of which manufacturing 1,397.25 1,430.98 2.5 0.7 2.0 2.4 Construction 1,205.65 1,192.08 -2.5 -1.3 -1.7 -1.7 Traditional services (G-I) 1,354.04 1,335.02 0.3 -0.8 -0.3 -0.2 Other market services (J-N;R-S) 1,713.36 1,669.58 -0.3 -0.7 -1.9 -1.5 Public service activities (O-Q) 1,710.91 1,651.43 -2.2 0.2 -1.7 -2.9 - Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 1,752.03 1,718.32 -1.8 -0.3 -0.8 -1.8 - Education 1,676.80 1,584.44 -3.3 0.1 -2.2 -4.2 - Human health and social work activities 1,712.37 1,669.48 -1.3 0.8 -1.8 -2.2 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. 16 Starting June 2012, we comment on data on earnings in the private sector and in the public sector (within the latter, particularly in the general government sector), and only exceptionally on earnings in private sector activities and public service activities; for more see SEM 06/12, Selected Topics - Monitoring the movements of wages and wage earners in the public and private sectors. 17 The growth rates in 2010 and 2011 were impacted particularly by the increase in the minimum wage and changes in employment structure. 18 Having risen by 1.4% in July, the average gross earnings in public corporations declined by 0.8% in August (seasonally adjusted), according to our estimate, mainly due to extraordinary payments in public financial (insurance) companies. 860 820 660 Table 6: Unemployment flows I-IX 11 I-IX 12 I-IX 13 INFLOW OF UNEMPLOYED - TOTAL 70.272 68.943 75.040 Jobseekers who lost work 59.880 61.472 65.191 bankruptcy of the company 6.326 3.469 2.870 business reasons or compulsory settlement 11.609 13.124 13.177 termination of fixed-term contracts 32.277 34.967 39.463 other reasons 9.668 9.912 9.681 First-time jobseekers 7.928 7.290 9.709 Other (transitions between records) 2.464 181 140 OUTFLOW OF UNEMPLOYED - TOTAL 73.244 76.256 78.432 Unemployed who found work 48.142 44.863 50.995 public works 1.235 3.552 5.086 self-employment 4.121 2.849 3.452 Transitions into inactivity 10.227 10.585 9.618 retirement 6.790 7.387 6.293 Breaches of regulations 9.318 14.577 10.835 Other (transfer to other registers, other) 5.557 6.231 6.984 Figure 18: Headline and core inflation in Slovenia and in the euro area Figure 17: Average gross earnings per employee -Total -----Private sector -Public sector -of which, general government sector ^ 1,900 ---- -of which, public corporations Source: SURS. ZUJF in 2012 and an additional reduction in earnings this year. The decline in the public sector was somewhat smaller due to the above-average growth of average earnings in public corporations (2.0%). Prices Consumer prices did not change in Slovenia in October, while year-on-year inflation declined in Slovenia and in the euro area. The monthly movement was mainly impacted by the usual seasonal dynamics. Higher prices of clothing and footwear increased monthly growth by 0.5 percentage 4 - Slovenia HICP ■ Slovenia HICP - core inflation - Euro area HICP ■ Euro area HICP - core infation rx , ; .J'W Source: Eurostat. points, while lower prices of holiday packages reduced it by 0.3 percentage points. In addition to the usual seasonal factors, monthly inflation was also marked by lower prices of liquid fuels. These were in turn reflected in lower year-on-year inflation, which was at 1.3% in October. Year-on-year inflation in the euro area declined in October and totalled 0.7% (1.1% in September), according to Eurostat's provisional data. September's decline in year-on-year inflation was mainly a result of the base effect in services prices and lower prices of energy. Consumer prices were up 1.4% year-on-year in September, 0.8 percentage points less than in August. The lower growth is largely a result of previous movements in services prices - i.e. the effect of the abolition of subsidies for school meals in September 2012, when prices of school Figure 19: Breakdown of year-on-year inflation 8 - 7 I 4 ■b 3 1 8 6 5 3 2 0 6 5 2 u 0 -1 -2 Table 7: Breakdown of the HICP into sub-groups - September 2013 Slovenia Euro area Cum. % Weight % Contribution in p.p. Cum. % Weight % Contribution in p.p. Total HICP 1.6 100.0 1.6 0.8 100.0 0.8 Goods 1.0 65.7 0.7 0.8 57.7 0.5 Processed food, alcohol and tobacco 2.1 16.1 0.3 1.5 12.0 0.2 Non-processed food 4.4 7.4 0.3 0.6 7.3 0.0 Non-energy industrial goods -1.1 27.9 -0.3 0.1 27.4 0.0 Durables -0.9 9.7 -0.1 -0.8 8.8 -0.1 Non-durables 0.9 8.8 0.1 0.8 8.0 0.1 Semi-durables -2.1 9.4 -0.2 1.6 10.5 0.2 Energy 3.1 14.4 0.4 1.6 11.0 0.2 Electricity for households 12.6 2.7 0.3 4.4 2.6 0.1 Natural gas -1.0 1.1 0.0 -0.5 1.8 0.0 Liquid fuels for heating 0.6 1.5 0.0 -0.2 0.9 0.0 Solid fuels 0.8 0.9 0.0 1.3 0.1 0.0 District heating -1.3 0.9 0.0 -1.5 0.6 0.0 Fuels and lubricants 1.6 7.4 0.1 1.4 5.0 0.1 Services 2.6 34.3 0.9 0.9 42.3 0.4 Services - dwellings 5.6 3.0 0.2 1.5 10.3 0.2 Services - transport 2.9 5.8 0.2 1.4 7.2 0.1 Services - communications 2.2 3.5 0.1 -2.6 3.1 -0.1 Services - recreation, repairs, personal care 2.9 13.9 0.4 0.9 14.7 0.1 Services - other services 1.2 8.1 0.1 0.3 7.1 0.0 HICP excluding energy and non-processed food 1.2 78.2 0.9 0.7 81.7 0.6 Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Note: ECB classification meals rose by 73.8%, according to SURS data. In addition to prices of services, the decline in year-on-year inflation also reflected lower prices of energy, particularly prices of fuels for transport and heating, which fell by 3.7% in September mainly as a consequence of the year-on-year decline in euro prices of oil. The latter also affected the dynamics of year-on-year inflation in the euro area, which dropped slightly relative to August (1.1%). The absence of price shocks and weak economic activity continue to show in a moderate movement of core inflation, which dropped in September after increasing in July and August due to the introduction of higher VAT rates. The modest year-on-year growth of industrial producer prices on the domestic market continued for the fifth consecutive month, while prices on foreign markets declined again. Domestic industrial producer prices on the domestic market did not change in September (0.1%). Price growth in the manufacture of food products (1.2%) slowed further, while prices in the manufacture of metals and metal products (-2.3%) remained lower. Price rises in the production of most other activities did not represent any significant pressure on total price growth either. Industrial producer prices on foreign markets continued to fall (-0.9%, year-on-year), with the largest decline recorded in the manufacture of metals and metal products (-3.8%) and prices also dropping in the manufacture of chemicals and chemical products (-1.6%). Figure 20: Movements of domestic industrial producer prices on the domestic and foreign markets -PPI (domestic market) -----Mfr.of basic metals,fabric.metal prod.,exc. mach,equip.(domestic) ---Mfr. of food products; beverages; tobacco products (domestic) 20 PPI (foreign market) 16 12 # 8 4 " -4 -8 -12 -16 Source: SURS. Import prices were down year-on-year again in September. Prices of imported products continued to drop in September, and were down 1.6% relative to the same period last year. Besides by lower prices of oil derivatives, growth was also impacted by lower prices in the manufacture of metals and metal products (-5.7%), as 0 well as a decline of prices in the manufacture of food products (-0.1%), the first since the end of 2009. The price competitiveness of the economy continued to deteriorate year-on-year in August. The nominal effective exchange rate increased relative to the same period last year as a result of the strengthening of the euro against most EU and non-EU currencies, in particular against the JPY, USD and GBP. At the same time, relative prices continued to grow year-on-year.19 The real effective exchange rate measured by the HICP was therefore higher year-on-year in August and in the first eight months (by 2.7% and 1.3%, respectively), after three years of continuous decline. In terms of year-on-year loss in price competitiveness, Slovenia was around the middle of euro area countries in the first eight months of the year. Owing to the structure of its external trade, the strengthening of the nominal effective exchange rate was among the smallest,20 and growth in relative prices, which was also due to one-off factors,21 among the largest in the euro area. Figure 21: Real effective exchange rates of euro area countries deflated by HICP and ULC ■ REER ULC (Jan-Jun 2013) BREER HICP (Jan-Aug 2013) Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD. In the second quarter the cost competitiveness of the economy improved again year-on-year. As a result of a modest nominal increase22 in labour costs per employee and renewed growth in labour productivity due to a further decline in employment, nominal and real unit labour costs dropped in the second quarter. Given that in Slovenia's main trading partners they mostly increased, the real effective exchange rate deflated by relative unit labour costs declined as well. In the first half of the year 19 Slovenian prices in comparison with those of the trading partners. 20 As Slovenia has an above-average share of merchandise trade with the euro area, the appreciation of the euro has a smaller impact on the nominal effective exchange rate (and conversely). 21 Higher prices of school meals and higher annual road user charges.. 22 In real terms, labour costs per employee were down again, by 0.9%. 23 Based on the definition, according to which the tradable sector includes: Slovenia was in a smaller group of euro area and EU countries where cost competitiveness improved relative to the same period last year. Slovenia's position in the euro area and the EU has improved again in relative terms in 2013 for the third year in a row, after the more pronounced deterioration in cost competitiveness at the beginning of the crisis. Figure 22: Real unit labour costs in Slovenia and the EU ^^■RULC Slovenia ^HRULC EU -Productivity Slovenia -Productivity EU -----Compensation per empl. Slovenia ----Compensation per empl. EU ■r...........1............r- a a a a Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Figure 23: Real unit labour costs in EU countries in the first half of 2013 Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Note: *GDP deflator. Particularly the cost competiveness of the trading sector23 improved in the second quarter. In the second quarter and in the first half of the year real unit labour costs declined in manufacturing (for the third quarter in a A agriculture, forestry and fishing, B-E industry excluding construction, G-I trade, transportation, accommodation and food service activities, J information and communication (European Commission, Quarterly report on the euro area, Volume 12 N.2, 2013). Table 8: Indicators of price and cost competitiveness Annual change. in % 2011 2012 q3 12 q4 12 q1 13 q2 13 Effective exchange rate1 Nominal -0.1 -1.2 -1.8 -1.4 0.2 0.6 Real. deflator HICP -1.0 -1.1 -1.2 -0.8 0.9 0.8 Real. deflator ULC -2.5 -3.0 -3.7 -3.0 -2.5 -1.3 Unit labour costs. economy and components Nominal unit labour costs -0.6 0.7 0.9 0.3 1.2 -0.1 Compensation of employees per employee. nominal 1.6 -0.4 -1.2 -1.4 -0.8 0.7 Labour productivity. real 2.2 -1.1 -2.1 -1.7 -2.0 0.8 Real unit labour costs -1.6 0.2 0.7 0.1 1.2 -1.7 Labour productivity. nominal 3.2 -0.6 -1.9 -1.5 -2.0 2.5 Source: SORS. ECB; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 against 36 trading partners. according to ECB. Figure 24: Real unit labour costs by sectors of the economy, in the first half of 2013 Productivity, nominal »Compensation per empl., nominal ♦ RULC Q1-Q2 2013 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. row),24 trade, transportation, accommodation and food service activities and information and communication activities. The decline was a consequence of rising labour productivity due to the adjustment of employment to lower activity amid a concurrent, more modest, increase/ decline in wages. The cost competitiveness of most activities in the non-tradable sector (with the exception of construction) deteriorated due to a larger decline in labour productivity compared with labour costs. Balance of payments The current account surplus continued to increase and was up substantially year-on-year (EUR 1.6 bn) in the first eight months, mostly due to a surplus in merchandise trade (a deficit in the same period last year). The surplus Figure 25: Components of the current account balance, in EUR m ■ Merchandise trade ■ Factor incomes -Current account ■ Services trade ■ Current transfers 24 As well as in the entire industry excluding construction (B-E). -500 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. in services trade was also larger in this period, while the deficit in the balance of factor income declined. The balance of current transfers deteriorated. The merchandise trade balance was in surplus again in August, as a result of a larger year-on-year decline in imports than exports, with the deficit in trade with EU countries shrinking substantially. In the first eight months of the year the merchandise trade surplus stood at EUR 541.6 m (a deficit of EUR 218.6 m in the same period last year ). The surplus in services trade was up slightly year-on-year in August and totalled EUR 1.4 bn in the first eight months of the year (EUR 1.2 bn in the same period last year). The year-on-year improvement in services trade was mainly attributable to the surplus in trade in the group of other services (intermediation, various business, professional and technical services and communication services). The deficit in trade in licences, patents and copyrights was also smaller. The deficit in the balance of factor income is declining year-on-year as a result of a smaller net outflow of income from capital amid an otherwise larger net inflow of income from labour. The decline in the deficit of income from capital was mainly due to a smaller net outflow of equity capital from direct investments (covering net losses of Slovenian direct investors abroad). On the other hand, net payments of interest of the government sector were higher due to the borrowing via long-term bonds and tightened borrowing conditions. Net payments of interest on external debt of the private sector are declining year-on-year amid further deleveraging abroad25 and, partly, as a result of lower interest rates. The BS reports stable net interest receipts, as its external claims in debt instruments exceed its liabilities to the Eurosystem. In the first eight months total net interest payments abroad stood at EUR 310.7 m (EUR 303.6 m in the same period of 2012). Net income from labour is rising due to a larger number of daily migrants abroad and a smaller number of foreign seasonal workers in Slovenia. Figure 26: Net interest payments by sector, EUR m ^MB^ ^MGovernment sector Private sector -Total 30 .- Table 9: Balance of payments Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. The wider deficit in the balance of current transfers in the first eight months was mainly a result of net payments of private sector transfers (taxes on income and property, social contributions and insurance payments). International financial transactions26 recorded a net outflow again in August (EUR 322.4 m), this time due to net outflows of the BS and the private sector, while the government sector recorded a net capital inflow. In August the government sector was drawing a long-term loan abroad and repaid another portion of long-term liabilities to foreign portfolio investors. As a hedge against the currency risk associated with the sale of dollar 25 In the period from the deepening of the financial crisis in September 2008 to the end of August, domestic commercial banks repaid EUR 10.1 bn in external debt; other sectors repaid EUR 0.8 bn. 26 Excluding international monetary reserves and statistical errors. I-VIII 13, v mio EUR Inflows Outflows Balance1 Balance, I-VIII 12 Current account 19,607.0 18,010.7 1,596.2 477.0 - Trade balance (FOB) 14,563.6 14,022.0 541.6 -218.6 - Services 3,555.3 2,135.0 1,420.3 1,197.0 - Income 609.8 825.6 -215.7 -454.2 Current transfers 878.2 1,028.2 -150.0 -47.2 Capital and financial account 1,966.4 -4,343.5 -2,377.1 -480.3 - Capital account 167.4 -221.4 -53.9 -13.3 - Capital transfers 138.6 -203.3 -64.7 -39.2 - Non-produced, non-financial assets 28.8 -18.1 10.8 25.9 - Financial account 1,799.0 -4,122.1 -2,323.1 -467.0 - Direct investment -593.4 -48.2 -641.5 303.0 - Portfolio investment 1,792.1 138.8 1,930.9 -1,595.2 - Financial derivates -37.1 -306.8 -343.9 -55.6 - Other investment 637.4 -3,874.6 -3,237.3 892.1 - Assets 0.0 -1,870.2 -1,870.2 -1,291.4 - Liabilities 637.4 -2,004.4 -1,367.1 2,183.5 - Reserve assets 0.0 -31.4 -31.4 -11.3 Net errors and omissions 780.8 0.0 780.8 3.3 Source: BS. Note: 1a minus sign (-) in the balance indicates a surplus of imports over exports in the current account and a rise in assets in the capital and financial account and the central bank's international reserves. Figure 27: Financial transactions of the balance of payments by sector 3,000 2,000 1,000 I Private sector IBank of Slovenia ■ Government sector - Net financial flow -1,000 -2,000 -3,000 Source: BS. ^^ bonds, the government sector increased the claims in the segment of financial derivatives. The majority of private sector transactions in August were carried out by households and commercial banks. Households again deposited some of their savings in foreign accounts, while commercial banks increased investment in long-term debt securities. The BS lowered its liabilities to the Eurosystem by EUR 224.0 m, mainly due to the 0 implementation of monetary policy operations27 (by EUR 210 m). The commercial banks increased minimum reserves, which reached EUR 1.5 bn by the end of August. The refinancing of banks was modest, and the stock of loans, having persisted at the same level for four months, totalled EUR 3.8 bn at the end of August. Financial markets The situation in the Slovenian banking system continues to deteriorate. September recorded a significant decline in the stock of loans to domestic non-banking sectors again. The decline of over EUR 110 m was mainly attributable to strong corporate deleveraging in Slovenia. The credit crunch thus continues to increase this year. In the first three quarters of this year the stock of domestic nonbanking sector loans fell by as much as EUR 1.3 bn, nearly twice as much as in the same period last year. This significant decline is related to lower supply of funding as a result of the bad situation in the Slovenian banking system, as well as to shrinking demand due to the bad shape of the Slovenian economy overall. Liquidity pressures on the Slovenian banking system remain significant. The outflows of banks' foreign liabilities have otherwise slowed slightly this year, but the outflows of domestic sources of finance, in particular household deposits, are rising. The stock of household loans dropped somewhat again in September after a slight increase in August. The decline in the amount of EUR 7.3 m was primarily a consequence of further repayments of consumer loans and, to some extent, repayments of loans for other purposes, while housing loans rose by around EUR 5 m in September. In the first three quarters this year household loans fell by around EUR 215 bn, approximately twice as much as in the same period last year, largely as a result of the significantly lower borrowing in the form of housing loans. September's corporate and NFI deleveraging, at EUR 106.9 m, is comparable with this year's monthly average. The bulk of deleveraging is still accounted for by corporate loan repayments, while NFI repayments remain modest. In the first three quarters corporate and NFI loans shrank by EUR 1 bn, which is over 50% more than in the same period last year. Enterprises and NFIs recorded net deleveraging abroad in August. Net repayments amounted to EUR 45.8 m and were fairly evenly distributed between long-term and short-term loans. In the first eight months of this year enterprises borrowed as much as EUR 1.1 bn net in foreign loans. Practically the entire net borrowing is Figure 28: Increase in household, corporate, NFI and government loans Households Enterprises and NFI^ ^^BGovernment -Total 27 Typical monetary policy operations related to the Eurosystem are claims (loans) and liabilities of the BS to domestic monetary sectors (overnight deposits). Loans that are used to add liquidity are mainly realised by long-term financing, and partly with main refinancing. Overnight deposits include minimum reserves and other liabilities of credit institutions. Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 29: Net corporate and NFI borrowing abroad and gaps between domestic and foreign interest rates ^^■Short-term loans (left axis) ^^■Long-term loans (left axis) -Diff. between domestic and foreign interest rates (right axis) 700 600 500 400 300 ^^ 200 iE 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. estimated to be a result of one-off events;28 without these events, corporate borrowing abroad would see a modest net outflow this year, according to our estimate. The gaps between domestic and foreign interest rates for corporate and NFI loans widened slightly in August, reaching a very high level, around 220 basis points. The banks continued to make net repayments of foreign liabilities in August, but in a slightly smaller amount than in previous months. The banks thus repaid more than 28 I.e., requalification of liabilities from foreign direct investments into loans from non-affiliated companies, and increased borrowing by one of the energy companies), rather than generally improved access of Slovenian enterprises and NFIs to foreign sources of finance. Table 10: Financial market indicators Domestic bank loans to nonbanking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR bn Nominal loan growth, % 31. XII 12 30. IX 13 30. IX 13/31. VIII 13 30. IX 13/31. XII 12 30. IX 13/30. IX 12 Loans total 31,464.6 30,188.5 -0.4 -4.1 -6.5 Enterprises and NFI 20,456.5 19,457.8 -0.5 -4.9 -9.2 Government 1,741.4 1,679.2 0.1 -3.6 9.9 Households 9,266.7 9,051.5 -0.1 -2.3 -3.1 Consumer credits 2,481.8 2,335.2 -0.4 -5.9 -8.6 Lending for house purchase 5,258.9 5,256.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 Other lending 1,526.1 1,459.6 -0.2 -4.4 -4.9 Bank deposits total 15,051.3 14,691.9 -0.4 -2.4 -1.9 Overnight deposits 6,479.4 6,454.9 -0.1 -0.4 -2.0 Short-term deposits 4,010.9 3,745.6 -1.1 -6.6 -4.0 Long-term deposits 4,554.7 4,483.2 -0.1 -1.6 -0.2 Deposits redeemable at notice 6.2 8.2 38.6 31.5 11.1 Mutual funds 1,830.0 1,812.9 1.5 -0.9 -4.0 Government bank deposits, total 2,562.7 3,757.2 1.7 46.6 76.0 Overnight deposits 196.6 330.7 -20.3 68.2 396.2 Short-term deposits 828.4 1,855.3 8.4 124.0 279.6 Long-term deposits 1,537.1 1,511.9 -0.6 -1.6 -4.2 Deposits redeemable at notice 0.5 59.3 25.4 10,791.4 3,132.5 Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BS, SMA (Securities Market Agency); calculations by IMAD. Figure 30: Net repayments of foreign liabilities of Slovenian banks 2,000 - 1,500 ■■■ 1,000 Bonds Deposits Short-term loans Long-term loans Total -1,000 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. EUR 80 m net in foreign liabilities in August, mainly as a result of net repayments of long-term loans and, to a lesser extent, deposits and short-term loans. In the first eight months of this year the banks repaid EUR 1.5 bn in foreign loans, more than 40% less than in the comparable period last year. In September the stock of household deposits continued to decline, while the stock of government deposits rose slightly. Household deposits shrank by more than EUR 50 m. All types of household deposits except deposits redeemable at notice dropped, particularly short-term deposits (by EUR 43.5 m). In the first three quarters household deposits declined by around EUR 360 m, around two times more than in the same period last year. Government deposits were up EUR 62.8 m in September, with short-term deposits rising in particular. In the first three quarters of this year government deposits at commercial banks rose by around EUR 1.2 bn, in contrast to the same period last year, when they had fallen by more than EUR 700 m. Figure 31: Share of bad and non-performing claims and creation of impairments and provisions in the Slovenian banking system Provisions and impairments (left axis) -Share of non-performing claims (right axis) -Share of bad claims (right axis) 22 20 18 16 14 12 S 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 The deterioration in the quality of bank claims otherwise slowed slightly in August, but was nevertheless relatively significant. The volume of bad claims29 rose by EUR 116.7 m in August. The quality of claims against foreigners30 deteriorated most, and a somewhat stronger deterioration was also recorded in trade. At the end of August bad claims thus accounted for as much as 17.1% (enterprises: 20.4%) of the total exposure of the Slovenian banking sector, which is already over 3 percentage points more than at the end of 2012. The volume of bad claims came close to EUR 8 bn in August. The banks are increasingly creating impairments and provisions, which increased by more than EUR 200 m in September and by almost EUR 880 m in the first three quarters of the year, a fifth more than in the same period last year. Successive Fed announcements and market expectations in the last two months of postponement of the withdrawing of the stimulus have positively influenced Slovenian government bond yields. Government bond yields and stock exchange indexes have reflected US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy statements with respect to the winding down of the central bank's EUR 85-billion-a-month bond purchase program announced on August 18, 2013. The Slovenian's government bond yields have been no exception. Slovenia's 10-year euro denominated bench mark bond fell about 60 basis points towards the end of the month of October following Fed's announcement of policy intentions on September 18, 2013. In its last communication on October 30, 2013, the Fed reaffirmed that it would keep the program in place. Figure 32: 10-year government bond yield spread vis-avis German bond - Portugal -Italy - Slovenia --- France -Spain ---Ireland ^^ ^^ Ü ^^ ^^ ^^ Source: Bloomberg. Public finance The general government deficit in the first eight months of the year was EUR 1.3 bn.31 The increasing deficit trend observed during the year, resulting primarily from lower government revenue, reverted in the month of August due to a decrease in expenditure. The deficit in the first eight months was EUR 251 m bigger than the deficit in same period in the previous year. Government revenue was lower by EUR 345 m or 3.5%, while expenditure was lower by EUR 94 m or 0.9%. The trend fall in revenue after slowing down in July due to higher non-tax revenue and improvement in VAT revenue continued in August. The overall lower revenue in 2013 can be explained primarily by lower tax revenue (down EUR 312 m) and social security contributions (down EUR 163 m). Revenue from the EU budget was slightly lower in the first eight months of the year (down EUR 27 m), while non-tax revenue was higher by EUR 131 m. The main drivers of lower tax revenue are corporate income tax (CIT) (down EUR 252 m) reflecting changes in the CIT system that took place in 2012 (the tax rate and the tax base were reduced, but the pre-payments were still paid according to the higher base) and whose effect on cash accounts is visible in 2013, and a slowdown in economic activity. VAT revenue increased in the months of July and August reflecting the rise in VAT rate after relatively lower revenue in the two previous months. General government expenditure remained lower in the first eight months of 2013 compared to the same period one year earlier. This was mainly a consequence of a reduction in total nominal expenditure in the month of August after four consecutive months of increase. The decline (by EUR 63 m) was mainly due to a larger year-on- Figure 33: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure - General government revenue, total - General government expenditure, total ■li 29 Claims rated C, D and E. 30 Against all entities except foreign financial organisations. ji Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. 31 According to the consolidated balance on a cash basis. 0 Table 11: Taxes and social security contributions EUR m Growth, % Structure, % I-VIII 2013 VIII 13/VIII 12 I-VIII 13/I-VIII 12 I-VIII 2012 I-VIII 2013 General government revenue - total 9,409.4 -2.4 -3.5 100.0 100.0 Corporate income tax 130.0 -32.1 -66.0 3.9 1.4 Personal income tax 1,207.1 -4.0 -5.0 13.0 12.8 Value added tax 1,894.8 2.6 -2.6 19.9 20.1 Excise duties 968.8 -12.1 -5.0 10.5 10.3 Social security contributions 3,390.7 -6.0 -4.6 36.4 36.0 Other general government revenues 1,818.0 15.5 15.0 16.2 19.3 Source: PPA - Report on Payments of All Public Revenues; calculations by IMAD. Table 12: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 2012 2013 EUR m % of GDP Growth, % I-VIII 13, EUR m I-VIII 13/I-VIII 12 Revenue - total 14,995.1 42.3 0.1 9,409.4 -3.5 - Tax revenues 13,117.6 37.0 -0.7 8,178.3 -5.5 - Taxes on income and profit 2,656.6 7.5 -2.5 1,339.3 -19.1 - Social security contributions 5,244.1 14.8 -0.4 3,390.7 -4.6 - Domestic taxes on goods and servises 4,876.0 13.7 0.4 3,199.3 -1.2 - Receipts from the EU budget 845.2 2.4 3.7 486.8 -5.3 Expenditure - total 16,117.9 45.4 -2.6 10,677.5 -0.9 - Wages and other personnel expenditure 3,185.1 9.0 -4.4 2,413.3 -5.7 - Purchases of goods and services 2,370.3 6.7 -3.0 1,485.2 -6.2 -Domestic and foreign interest payments 648.0 1.8 23.0 620.0 19.1 - Transfers to individuals and households 6,383.6 18.0 -2.3 4,276.8 -1.2 - Capital expenditure 912.3 2.6 -10.9 451.0 -8.6 - Capital transfers 320.2 0.9 -13.9 138.8 -0.3 - Payment to the EU budget 390.3 1.1 -3.7 327.9 10.1 Deficit -1,122.8 -3.2 -28.2 -1,268.1 24.6 Source: MF, Public Finance Bulletin. year reduction in expenditure in goods and services and social transfers than in previous months, but it was also a result of lower expenditure on wages. In the first eight months expenditure on wages was down by EUR 147 m,32 purchases of goods and services by EUR 98 m, investments by EUR 53 m and social security contributions by EUR 30 m. Expenditure increased due to interest payments (EUR 99 m), use of the budget reserves (EUR 55 m), subsidies (EUR 32 m) and payments to the EU budget (EUR 30 m). The reduction of social transfers continued across all categories with the main exception of expenditure on pensions (up EUR 75 m). The positive growth in pension expenditure can be explained primarily by the increase in the number of pensioners. The most important reductions in social transfers concern family benefits and parental compensations and scholarships. 32 The decline in expenditure on wages was, in addition to the 2013 and 2012 intervention measures in the area of wages, also impacted by lower employment in public administration and defence and compulsory social security (by 3.3% year-on-year in the first eight months as a whole), while employment in education and health care remained similar to last year. Figure 34: Planned and absorbed EU funds, 2013 ■ Funds planned in the revised state budget for 2013 ■ Total receipts in 2013 (January-September) Other Structural Funds Common Agricultural Policy 200 500 300 400 In EUR m Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. 0 600 700 Box 2: Absorption of Cohesion Policy funds in the programming period 2007-2013 In the financial framework 2007-2013 Slovenia has been granted EUR 4.1 bn for the implementation of the Cohesion Policy (OP RR,' OP RČV,2 OP ROPI3), EUR 4.0 bn of which (98.5%) was absorbed by the end of September (as at 30 September 2013). The total value of signed contracts was EUR 3.5 bn, while payments to the beneficiaries amounted to EUR 2.3 bn. The highest absorption relative to the available funds was recorded for OP ROPI projects (100.8%), while OP RR and OP RČV projects absorbed 97.4% and 96.2% of all the available funds, respectively. Despite the high percentage of absorbed funds, the OP ROPI has the worst absorption rate with regard to the available funds (28.1%). The absorption rates of the OP RČV and the OP RR are significantly higher, 61.5% and 71.7%, respectively. Despite the highest absorption, the OP RR has the largest delays (in the amount of EUR 84.2 m) and the lowest growth (14.9%) in reimbursements to the state budget in the current year. The smallest delays (in the amount of EUR 68.9 m) and the highest growth (29.2%) in reimbursements in the current year are recorded for OP RČV projects, while the delays in OP ROPI projects amount to EUR 68.9 m, and growth in reimbursements to 20%. Figure 35: Absorption of Cohesion Policy funds in the 2007-2013 period (as at 27 September 13) ■ Available furnds ■ Signed contracts ■ Payments to beneficiaries ■ Reimbursements to the state budget ■ Delays in reimbursements I Absorption relative to available funds 2007-2013 (right axis) 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 £ 1,200 I 1,000 800 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 OP RR OP RCV OP ROPI Source: Ministy of Economic Development and Technology The OP ROPI is the most critical in terms of compliance with the N+3/2 rule.4 The difficulties encountered in the implementation of environmental and infrastructure projects are mainly associated with lengthy audit procedures and appeals against public procurement procedures, spatial problems, bankruptcies in the construction sector and liquidity problems of beneficiaries. Based on Article 94 of Council Regulation No 1083/2006, Slovenia's obligations by the end of 2013 were reduced slightly because of objective problems in the implementation of major environmental and infrastructure projects, so that the deadline for the absorption of cohesion funds for these projects will be extended. 1 Operational Programme for Strengthening Regional Development Potentials. 2 Operational Programme for Human Resources Development. 3 Operational Programme of Environmental and Transport Infrastructure Development. 4 Funds allocated in year N should be absorbed within two/three years. Figure 36: Receipts from the EU budget in 2012 and 2013 ■ Total receipts in 2013 (January-September) ■ Total receipts in 2012 (January-September) Common Agricultural Policy The net surplus of Slovenia's budget against the EU budget in the first nine months was smaller (by EUR 176.4 m) than in the same period last year (EUR 222.4 m). Despite low payments in the last four months, the highest absorption rate (67.4%) was recorded for funds received under the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies (EUR 200.7 m; in September EUR 4.8 m), and the lowest (26.6%) for receipts from the Cohesion Fund (EUR 61.4 m; in September EUR 9.4 m). The absorption from Structural Funds in the first nine months was lower (41.7%) than in the same period last year (62.8%), although the nominal value of receipts into the state budget (EUR 260 m) remained unchanged.33 In EUR m Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. 33 To comply with the N+2/3 rule, the revised budget envisages EUR 624 m in receipts from structural funds in 2013; in 2012, EUR 413 m. 0 M u a o ■Ö 01 u 31 0! The Doing Business 2014 report by the World Bank Slovenia's ranking on the ease of doing business according to the World Bank's Doing Business 2014 report has deteriorated slightly. Among the 189 evaluated countries, Singapore, Hong Kong and New Zealand top the scale, as in previous years. Two EU Member States, Denmark and the United Kingdom, also rank high. This year's report places Slovenia 33rd out of all countries surveyed (two places lower than last year), and 13'h among the EU Member States (two places higher than last year).34 The decline in the total ranking was not a result of deterioration in the quality of regulatory environment, but was attributable to the fact that some other, less developed countries in particular, made much greater headway than Slovenia (Macedonia, Rwanda). Among EU countries, the greatest progress was recorded for Greece, where several reforms concerning the ease of starting a business, protection of investors and trading across borders have been carried out in the last year under the pressure from the international community. Despite the deterioration, Slovenia ranks higher according to the World Bank report than according to the competitiveness surveys by the WEF and the IMD, as the World Bank's methodology of measuring the ease of doing business takes into account only the indicator of the quality of regulatory environment,35 while the subjective assessments of managers and the current macroeconomic conditions have no impact on the results. The distance to frontier measure36 for Slovenia also shows that Slovenia narrowed its gap with the topranking countries in terms of the ease of doing business in the period between 2006 and 2013, mainly as a result of measures that made it easier and faster to start a business. According to the World Bank survey, one major reform was implemented this year37 to make it easier to do business in Slovenia. To simplify dealing with construction permits, Slovenia eliminated the requirement to obtain project conditions from the water and sewerage provider. This should shorten the time needed to obtain a construction permit for a typical warehouse by 15 days to 182 days, which is still longer than in other developed countries. In the last year Slovenia has advanced in two areas only, while it has slipped in four and remained unchanged in three.38 Much as in previous years, Slovenia scores highest on the indicator of investor protection (17'h), with Ireland and the UK being the only countries with better protection in the EU. The IMD report, in contrast, places Slovenia very low precisely with regard to minority shareholder protection, which is largely related to the pessimistic attitude of managers, as the IMD indicator relies on a survey. Slovenia also ranks relatively high on the indicators of getting electricity (32nd) and starting a business (38'h), given that it now takes two procedures and six days to start a business, compared with as many as 60 days in 2008. Similar to last year, when significant changes with regard to the introduction of on-line business operations were Table 13: Slovenia's ranking according to the "Doing Business" report Rank Change 2013/2012 2012 (DB 2013) 2013 (DB 2014) Ease of doing business 31 33 -2 Starting a business 33 38 -5 Dealing with construction permits 58 59 -1 Registering property 80 83 -2 Getting electricity 32 32 0 Getting credit 105 109 -4 Protecting investors 14 14 0 Paying taxes 59 54 -5 Trading across borders 46 48 -2 Enforcing contracts 56 52 +4 Resolving insolvency 41 41 0 Source: Doing Business, World Bank , 2013. Note: The survey included 189 countries. Because of methodological changes, this year's rankings can only be compared with last year's. 34 Much as in previous years, the methodology of calculation was changed again in the latest report, so that the countries' ranks are not directly comparable with those for previous years. They can be compared only with results for the preceding year, which were re-calculated by the methodology for the current year. For detailed information, see http://www.doingbusiness.org/. 35 Data are collected from registers, regulations, decrees and surveys of public officials, and the comparison is based on the number of the necessary procedures and the time and costs involved. 36 To assess the countries' progress over time, the World Banks regularly releases the distance to frontier measure, which enables year-to-year comparison with the best-performing countries. For more on the methodology see http://www.doingbusiness.org/data/distance%20to%20frontier. 37 The survey was conducted in the first half of this year. 38 The ease on doing business index captures 10 areas, i.e. starting a business, dealing with construction permits, registering property, getting electricity, getting credit, protecting investors, paying taxes, trading across borders, enforcing contracts and resolving insolvency. made, Slovenia has also improved its position in the area of paying taxes (54'h, up 5 places from last year). It has also advanced on the indicator of contract enforcement, mainly due to somewhat shorter court proceedings. Slovenia has declined further on the indicator of getting credit (by 4 places to 109'h), where it has scored very low for several years. This is a result of deficiencies in existing legislation and a lack of a good credit information system for users, which has a significant effect on both the availability and costs of loans for Slovenian enterprises. Burdensome procedures for obtaining documentation and permits are still a major obstacle to doing business in Slovenia.39 Procedures involving private/commercial applicants are typically much shorter. The most time-consuming procedures are obtaining the necessary permits from the administrative units and registering construction projects in official records, which significantly increase the time needed to register real estate (105.5 days) and obtain a construction permit (182 days). Slovenian companies also spend more time paying taxes (260 hours) than their counterparts in developed countries (the OECD average is 175 hours). Despite improvement in the last year, contract enforcement also takes very long, 1270 days, which is much more than in other comparable countries (e.g. OECD: 529 days). According to the World Bank, efficient contract enforcement, in particular, can have significant positive effects especially on medium-sized and small enterprises and entrepreneurs, which cannot afford lengthy court proceedings due to limited liquid assets. 39 The procedures are calculated based on a typical business operating in the capital of a given country. X "ö C a a (ü "5 (U MAIN INDICATORS 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Autumn forecast 2013 GDP (real growth rates, in %) 3.4 -7.9 1.3 0.7 -2.5 -2.4 -0.8 0.4 GDP in EUR million (current prices and current exchange rate) 37,244 35,420 35,485 36,150 35,319 34,908 35,132 35,747 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices and current exchange rate) 18,420 17,349 17,320 17,610 17,172 16,942 17,027 17,305 GDP per capita (PPS)1 22,700 20,300 20,500 21,000 20,900 GDP per capita (PPS EU27=100)1 91 86 83 83 81 Gross national income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate) 36,273 34,823 35,028 35,759 34,931 34,196 34,362 34,910 Gross national disposable income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate) 35,904 34,519 34,875 35,680 34,721 34,295 34,268 34,758 Rate of registered unemployment 6.7 9.1 10.7 11.8 12.0 13.3 13.6 13.5 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 4.4 5.9 7.3 8.2 8.9 10.7 11.0 10.6 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 0.8 -6.2 3.5 2.4 -1.7 -0.1 0.6 1.1 Inflation,2 year average 5.7 0.9 1.8 1.8 2.6 2.0 1.9 1.4 Inflation,2 end of the year 2.1 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.7 2.3 1.4 1.7 INTERNATIONAL TRADE - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS Exports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 4.0 -16.1 10.2 7.0 0.6 2.0 3.0 4.1 Exports of goods 1.8 -16.6 12.0 8.2 -0.1 1.6 3.1 4.3 Exports of services 14.3 -14.0 3.5 1.9 3.7 3.8 2.7 3.2 Imports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 3.7 -19.2 7.4 5.6 -4.7 0.1 2.1 3.9 Imports of goods 3.0 -20.2 8.3 6.6 -5.1 0.3 2.0 3.9 Imports of services 8.2 -12.4 2.6 -0.6 -2.2 -1.0 2.5 4.2 Current account balance, in EUR million -2,028 -173 -50 146 1,159 1,731 1,765 1,817 As a per cent share relative to GDP -5.4 -0.5 -0.1 0.4 3.3 5.0 5.0 5.1 Gross external debt, in EUR million 39,234 40,294 40,723 40,241 40,838 40.0265 As a per cent share relative to GDP 105.3 113.8 114.8 111.3 115.6 116.1 Ratio of USD to EUR 1.471 1.393 1.327 1.392 1.286 1.320 1.331 1.331 DOMESTIC DEMAND - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) 2.3 -0.1 1.5 0.8 -4.8 -3.5 -2.7 0.5 As a % of GDP4 51.8 54.8 56.4 56.8 56.3 55.7 54.8 54.7 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) 5.9 2.5 1.3 -1.6 -1.3 -2.5 -1.5 -1.0 As a % of GDP4 18.1 20.2 20.8 20.8 20.8 20.4 20.3 20.0 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) 7.1 -23.8 -15.3 -5.5 -8.2 -1.6 -4.0 -0.9 As a % of GDP4 28.6 23.1 19.7 18.6 17.8 17.7 17.2 17.1 Sources of data: SURS, BS, Eurostat, calculations and forecasts by IMAD (Autumn Forecast, September 2013). Notes: 1Measured in purchasing power standard. ^Consumer price index. ^Balance of payments statistics (exports F.O.B., imports F.O.B.); real growth rates are adjusted for inter currency changes and changes in prices on foreign markets. 4Shares GDP are calculated for GDP in current prices at fixed exchange rate (EUR=239.64). 5End August 2013. PRODUCTION 2010 2011 2012 2011 2012 2013 2011 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 8 9 10 11 12 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D 7.1 1.3 -1.1 2.8 -0.8 -3.8 -0.2 -1.6 -0.4 -2.3 -2.4 -1.4 -2.1 1.5 -3.1 -0.4 -8.3 B Mining and quarrying 13.9 -7.9 -7.4 -9.0 -9.6 -8.7 -10.2 -2.3 -3.5 -13.3 8.7 -7.8 -17.2 -2.4 -7.2 -3.0 -17.0 C Manufacturing 7.6 1.1 -2.3 2.9 -1.1 -4.6 -1.0 -3.0 -2.1 -3.1 -3.7 -1.6 -3.3 1.8 -3.8 -1.6 -8.8 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 1.8 5.0 10.5 3.8 5.1 4.0 8.3 12.7 16.1 6.1 7.0 1.3 11.9 -0.3 4.7 13.2 -4.0 CONSTRUCTION,2 real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total -16.9 -24.8 -16.8 -30.1 -24.5 -19.1 -15.3 -16.7 -13.2 -21.6 -24.5 -10.5 -30.4 -16.3 -24.4 -7.8 -24.0 Buildings -14.0 -39.7 -17.3 -46.5 -34.3 -35.9 -13.0 -6.7 -18.1 -30.0 -40.9 -25.1 -36.7 -30.0 -33.3 -28.6 -44.5 Civil engineering -19.0 -15.3 -16.6 -20.7 -19.9 -10.1 -21.2 -20.9 -10.1 -16.2 -8.5 -2.6 -28.0 -9.7 -21.0 0.7 -7.0 TRANSPORT, tonne-km in m, y-o-y growth rates, % Tonne-km in road transport 7.9 3.2 -3.4 1.5 3.6 11.7 6.0 -5.3 -5.9 -7.8 -2.7 -1.8 Tonne-km in rail transport 28.2 9.7 -7.5 10.8 8.5 -1.6 -8.7 -8.0 -5.8 -7.5 -0.1 0.4 Distributive trades, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* 3.6 3.1 0.2 3.6 2.9 -0.5 0.6 -4.3 -3.2 -2.7 -4.9 -5.8 6.3 2.4 0.7 -0.5 -1.8 Real turnover in retail trade -0.1 1.4 0.3 0.4 2.2 0.2 2.5 -2.7 -1.7 -1.0 -2.6 -3.8 5.5 2.1 0.5 1.2 -1.2 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles 12.2 6.6 0.0 9.9 4.4 -1.9 -2.8 -7.2 -5.7 -6.4 -9.8 -10.3 8.0 3.0 1.2 -3.6 -3.5 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade 1.3 5.8 0.6 3.8 4.6 3.4 3.4 -0.6 1.2 -1.2 -5.4 1.1 8.5 5.7 5.7 5.7 -0.9 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, %, new methodology from 2009 onwards Total, overnight stays -1.5 5.3 -4.0 6.6 6.6 3.1 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.9 -3.4 -1.5 7.0 9.8 1.9 7.0 1.2 Domestic tourists, overnight stays -4.2 0.5 -10.9 0.4 0.8 0.4 -0.5 -4.6 -7.5 -5.2 -6.1 -5.3 2.1 7.3 -2.9 8.6 -3.3 Foreign tourists, overnight stays 0.7 9.1 0.9 11.3 10.2 5.5 2.0 5.1 6.3 8.1 -0.6 0.9 10.0 11.2 5.5 5.2 5.8 Nominal turnover market services (without distributive trades) 2.7 3.7 -1.1 4.7 4.8 -0.3 -0.6 0.5 -0.4 -3.7 -6.2 -2.8 4.8 7.5 -1.5 0.2 0.5 AGRICULTURE, y-o-y growth rates, % Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EUR m 454.5 478.9 481.7 113.3 125.7 139.5 108.4 110.4 128.4 134.5 104.4 111.1 39.8 43.7 48.9 44.0 46.7 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**) Sentiment indicator -9 -7 -17 -4 -6 -10 -12 -16 -19 -21 -15 -1^ -7 -6 -10 -10 -11 Confidence indicator - in manufacturing -1 0 -11 3 -1 -6 -6 -11 -14 -13 -9 -5 -2 -1 -7 -7 -5 - in construction -57 -46 -41 -46 -44 -43 -40 -44 -40 -39 -30 -22 -44 -43 -42 -45 -41 - in services -3 1 -12 3 3 -4 -8 -8 -14 -18 -12 -12 5 2 0 -2 -9 - in retail trade 7 8 2 13 1 12 6 5 1 -4 -3 3 -11 12 13 13 10 Consumer confidence indicator -25 -25 -35 -24 -25 -24 -26 -36 -39 -37 -29 -33 -27 -23 -26 -26 -20 Source of data: SURS. Note: 'Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. *Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels. **Seasonally adjusted data. 2012 2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0.5 3.3 -3.6 2.2 -3.9 -2.6 3.6 3.1 -6.7 5.2 -4.9 -7.5 0.2 -0.6 -6.3 3.2 -2.1 -5.0 2.4 -5.3 - - 6.1 -11.4 -22.0 -8.2 9.8 -7.0 -5.7 1.4 -5.8 1.2 -17.9 -24.9 -9.6 12.9 24.1 -2.5 -9.2 -11.5 3.7 -1.3 0.0 1.9 -4.2 1.9 -5.5 -4.9 1.8 1.6 -8.4 4.7 -5.5 -9.1 -0.9 -0.8 -8.5 2.9 -2.4 -5.2 2.4 -6.1 3.5 16.3 5.3 5.6 9.4 24.0 22.6 16.2 9.8 11.8 2.3 4.9 11.3 0.0 10.2 6.1 0.7 -2.4 1.7 - - -21.7 -24.3 -3.1 -13.5 -23.8 -11.7 -19.6 -14.4 -6.4 -22.5 -26.1 -14.8 -23.2 -14.0 -31.7 -18.7 -11.6 -2.0 1.8 -4.6 - - -31.1 -31.0 27.6 -7.2 -15.6 4.4 -23.9 -11.9 -18.6 -34.6 -19.4 -35.4 -38.2 -28.0 -50.1 -36.2 -24.2 -14.1 -19.1 -18.4 -18.1 -22.8 -22.0 -18.6 -26.5 -17.0 -17.1 -15.7 1.2 -15.0 -27.2 -2.1 -8.6 -0.6 -13.6 -6.3 -5.9 3.5 11.0 2.8 - - - - - - - - - - - - 2.6 1.0 -1.8 -4.0 -5.2 -3.7 -0.6 -3.7 -10.3 -3.4 -5.4 -7.9 -4.9 -8.7 -7.8 2.7 1.3 2.6 -4.2 -3.5 - - 4.0 3.5 -0.1 -3.5 -3.1 -1.6 -0.6 -0.8 -6.6 -4.1 -5.8 -7.4 -4.4 -9.4 -7.3 -1.8 -1.9 -3.9 -5.0 -4.8 -0.1 -3.5 -4.7 -5.0 -8.8 -7.7 -0.6 -10.8 -17.9 -2.1 -4.5 -9.2 -5.7 -7.4 -8.5 11.3 6.8 15.5 -2.7 -0.1 - 8.5 3.8 -0.8 0.0 0.4 -2.2 7.2 2.8 -5.4 4.9 -2.1 -6.5 1.6 -5.6 -10.9 5.8 -0.9 -1.3 0.8 -4.6 0.2 -0.3 2.4 -0.9 7.9 -1.9 1.3 2.5 -1.4 -3.5 9.3 2.2 -10.5 0.2 0.6 -11.6 9.2 -2.4 3.4 2.2 - - -0.3 -3.3 2.8 -14.3 -1.6 0.9 -9.9 -4.1 -9.8 -6.6 -8.1 -0.7 -10.0 -1.3 -8.2 -6.0 2.0 -10.0 0.7 -4.6 0.6 4.5 1.9 9.4 14.1 -3.7 8.4 6.3 3.1 -1.3 28.2 4.9 -10.8 2.5 9.3 -15.0 13.3 2.6 4.8 5.8 0.3 -3.6 1.4 -0.9 2.6 -0.1 1.1 0.6 -2.9 -4.2 -0.3 -6.6 -7.4 -3.5 -7.3 -2.7 -3.0 -3.3 0.4 0.1 34.3 35.1 39.0 37.0 38.3 35.1 47.2 37.9 43.3 47.1 41.0 46.3 33.9 32.2 38.4 37.5 38.7 34.9 45.1 37.1 - - -12 -12 -12 -16 -14 -17 -16 -19 -21 -23 -22 -17 -16 -16 -13 -14 -14 -12 -12 -12 -12 -13 -3 -6 -8 -9 -11 -13 -12 -15 -15 -16 -13 -9 -12 -8 -7 -9 -5 -2 -5 -4 -3 -5 -43 -39 -39 -44 -44 -43 -41 -37 -41 -42 -41 -35 -30 -30 -30 -26 -20 -20 -22 -15 -16 -17 -11 -9 -5 -8 -7 -10 -11 -14 -17 -20 -19 -15 -13 -13 -11 -9 -14 -14 -11 -9 -14 -13 5 9 5 9 2 3 0 1 3 -5 -4 -3 -1 -6 -3 -5 -2 16 12 5 5 9 -27 -26 -26 -39 -33 -36 -35 -35 -46 -39 -38 -34 -30 -31 -26 -26 -37 -37 -37 -33 -32 -35 LABOUR MARKET 2010 2011 2012 2011 2012 2013 2011 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 9 10 11 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 935.5 934.7 920.2 937.5 931.1 933.3 926.6 923.7 915.2 915.2 912.9 913.8 931.5 935.3 934.5 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)' 835.0 824.0 810.0 828.4 823.9 821.7 812.7 816.5 809.1 801.7 789.2 795.0 824.5 824.4 823.4 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 33.4 38.8 37.0 40.1 38.8 38.0 35.2 37.8 37.4 37.4 37.4 38.9 38.8 38.1 38.1 In industry, construction 287.3 272.9 263.1 274.2 272.7 271.0 265.4 266.3 263.1 257.5 249.9 252.5 272.7 273.5 272.1 Of which: in manufacturing 188.6 184.8 182.9 184.7 184.4 186.2 184.6 184.1 182.5 180.4 177.8 177.6 185.2 186.8 186.6 in construction 78.5 67.8 59.8 69.3 67.9 64.4 60.5 61.6 60.1 56.9 52.0 54.6 67.0 66.2 65.0 In services 514.3 512.3 510.0 514.1 512.4 512.7 512.1 512.4 508.6 506.8 502.0 503.6 513.1 512.8 513.2 Of which: in public administration 52.0 51.4 50.7 51.5 51.4 51.3 50.9 51.2 50.8 50.0 49.3 49.3 51.2 51.3 51.4 in education, health-services, social work 116.7 118.8 120.9 118.8 118.5 120.1 120.7 121.6 120.3 121.0 120.7 121.1 119.3 119.8 120.2 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 747.2 729.1 717.0 731.9 728.9 727.4 720.9 722.7 716.2 708.4 696.1 700.0 729.7 730.1 729.0 In enterprises and organisations 685.7 671.8 662.6 673.9 671.3 670.7 666.4 667.4 661.4 655.1 645.8 648.5 672.2 672.7 671.9 By those self-employed 61.5 57.2 54.5 58.0 57.6 56.6 54.5 55.4 54.8 53.3 50.2 51.5 57.4 57.4 57.0 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 87.8 94.9 93.0 96.5 95.0 94.4 91.8 93.8 92.9 93.3 93.1 95.0 94.8 94.3 94.5 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 100.5 110.7 110.2 109.1 107.2 111.6 114.0 107.2 106.1 113.5 123.7 118.8 107.0 110.9 111.1 Female 47.9 52.1 52.2 50.9 51.1 53.3 53.2 51.0 50.9 53.8 57.0 56.7 51.3 53.5 53.4 By age: under 26 13.9 12.9 11.9 12.6 11.3 13.4 12.7 10.8 10.1 14.0 14.2 13.0 11.2 13.6 13.5 aged over 50 31.4 39.0 38.2 39.1 38.7 38.2 39.2 38.1 37.4 38.1 40.7 39.3 38.4 38.2 37.9 Unskilled 37.5 39.5 39.4 39.2 38.1 39.3 41.0 39.2 37.8 39.5 43.4 40.6 38.3 38.7 39.0 For more than 1 year 42.8 50.2 55.2 48.6 49.6 53.8 57.2 55.1 54.5 53.9 54.4 54.3 50.4 51.8 52.9 Those receiving benefits 30.0 36.3 33.9 36.4 34.9 34.4 37.8 33.2 31.5 33.0 39.3 33.7 34.4 33.9 33.7 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 10.7 11.8 12.0 12.2 11.5 12.0 12.3 11.6 11.6 12.4 13.5 13.0 11.5 11.9 11.9 Male 10.1 11.4 11.5 11.9 10.9 11.3 11.9 11.1 11.0 11.9 13.4 12.5 10.8 11.1 11.2 Female 11.6 12.4 12.6 12.5 12.3 12.7 12.7 12.3 12.3 13.0 13.8 13.7 12.3 12.7 12.7 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE 13.3 2.7 5.3 -6.9 0.0 5.7 -1.9 -5.2 -0.2 12.6 4.6 -6.0 0.1 3.9 0.2 New unemployed first-job seekers 16.8 14.4 16.3 2.0 2.7 6.5 2.4 1.9 3.0 9.0 3.7 2.6 1.4 4.4 1.3 Redundancies 83.5 82.2 90.3 16.8 18.7 22.3 22.6 17.9 20.9 28.9 27.1 18.5 6.6 6.9 7.1 Registered unemployed who found employment 57.0 61.0 58.3 17.2 13.4 12.9 17.3 14.0 13.5 13.5 17.2 18.1 5.4 4.4 4.5 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 29.9 32.8 43.1 8.5 8.0 10.2 9.6 11.1 10.7 11.8 9.2 9.1 2.5 3.1 3.8 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 41.6 35.6 33.9 35.5 34.7 34.3 34.2 34.4 33.9 33.2 32.6 31.7 34.9 34.5 34.3 As % of labour force 4.4 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.7 Source of data: SURS, PDII, ESS. Note: 'In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. ^According to ESS. 2011 2012 2013 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 930.1 927.5 927.1 925.4 926.0 923.7 921.3 917.4 914.5 913.8 918.0 916.5 911.0 913.0 912.9 912.7 914.3 914.0 913.1 911.5 909.8 817.3 811.6 812.0 814.5 816.9 816.9 815.7 810.5 808.4 808.3 807.1 805.0 792.9 788.7 788.9 790.1 793.0 795.4 796.5 794.4 793.2 37.9 35.2 35.1 35.3 37.7 37.8 37.9 37.2 37.4 37.6 37.5 37.4 37.4 37.5 37.3 37.4 38.7 39.0 39.1 38.1 38.1 267.4 265.4 264.7 266.1 266.6 266.6 265.7 264.0 263.2 262.2 261.1 259.5 251.9 249.8 249.5 250.3 251.6 252.6 253.1 253.4 253.1 185.1 184.6 184.6 184.6 184.4 184.2 183.8 182.9 182.5 182.1 181.8 181.2 178.4 177.8 177.8 177.9 177.5 177.7 177.7 177.6 177.3 62.1 60.7 59.9 61.0 61.7 61.8 61.4 60.5 60.2 59.6 59.0 58.1 53.5 52.0 51.8 52.4 54.0 54.8 55.2 55.5 55.5 512.0 510.9 512.2 513.1 512.6 512.5 512.1 509.3 507.9 508.5 508.5 508.1 503.7 501.4 502.1 502.4 502.6 503.8 504.3 502.9 502.0 51.2 50.8 50.9 50.9 51.1 51.2 51.2 50.8 50.8 50.7 50.2 50.2 49.6 49.2 49.4 49.2 49.3 49.3 49.4 49.1 49.2 120.3 119.9 120.8 121.5 121.6 121.7 121.4 120.3 119.8 120.8 121.1 121.3 120.6 120.4 120.8 121.0 120.9 121.2 121.3 120.3 120.0 723.0 719.6 720.3 722.7 723.0 723.1 722.1 717.7 715.6 715.2 713.7 711.6 699.9 695.5 695.8 696.9 698.2 700.3 701.5 699.8 698.6 667.6 665.2 666.1 667.9 667.7 667.7 666.7 662.8 660.9 660.5 659.2 657.7 648.3 645.3 645.8 646.4 647.0 648.7 649.7 648.0 647.0 55.5 54.5 54.2 54.8 55.3 55.4 55.3 55.0 54.7 54.7 54.5 53.9 51.6 50.3 50.0 50.5 51.1 51.5 51.8 51.8 51.6 94.3 91.9 91.8 91.8 93.9 93.8 93.6 92.8 92.8 93.1 93.4 93.4 93.1 93.2 93.0 93.2 94.8 95.1 95.0 94.6 94.6 112.8 116.0 115.0 110.9 106.8 106.8 105.6 106.9 106.1 105.4 110.9 111.5 118.1 124.3 124.1 122.6 121.3 118.6 116.6 117.1 116.6 53.2 54.2 53.4 52.0 51.7 50.9 50.5 51.2 50.9 50.5 53.3 53.3 54.9 57.2 56.9 56.9 57.3 56.7 56.2 57.3 57.4 13.2 13.2 12.9 12.0 11.4 10.7 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.1 14.2 14.0 13.8 14.4 14.4 13.8 13.1 13.1 12.6 12.5 12.2 38.4 39.6 39.4 38.6 38.5 38.1 37.7 37.9 37.4 37.1 37.0 37.1 40.2 41.2 40.9 40.1 39.5 39.5 38.9 38.6 38.3 40.1 41.4 41.6 40.0 40.0 39.0 38.4 38.2 37.7 37.5 38.3 38.7 41.6 43.6 43.8 42.8 41.8 40.5 39.6 39.2 38.9 56.7 58.0 57.3 56.3 55.4 55.0 54.7 54.6 54.6 54.3 54.3 53.6 53.8 54.7 54.4 54.2 54.6 54.4 53.9 54.7 54.5 35.5 38.5 38.3 36.7 34.2 33.4 31.9 32.1 31.4 31.2 31.5 31.9 35.6 40.3 39.2 38.4 35.8 33.9 31.4 31.0 30.5 12.1 12.5 12.4 12.0 11.8 11.6 11.5 11.7 11.6 11.5 12.1 12.2 13.0 13.6 13.6 13.4 13.3 13.0 12.8 12.9 12.8 11.6 12.1 12.1 11.6 11.3 11.0 10.9 11.0 11.0 10.9 11.4 11.6 12.7 13.4 13.5 13.2 12.8 12.4 12.1 12.0 11.9 12.7 13.0 12.8 12.5 12.4 12.2 12.2 12.4 12.4 12.3 12.9 12.9 13.3 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.8 13.6 13.5 13.8 13.9 1.7 3.2 -0.9 -4.2 -1.8 -2.3 -1.2 1.3 -0.8 -0.6 5.4 0.6 6.6 6.2 -0.2 -1.4 -1.3 -2.8 -2.0 0.5 -0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.4 6.3 1.8 0.9 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 8.2 10.6 6.1 5.9 6.5 5.8 5.6 8.0 5.6 7.3 8.4 8.2 12.2 14.2 6.3 6.6 7.1 6.1 5.3 7.7 5.5 4.0 5.0 5.2 7.1 5.5 4.7 3.9 4.0 4.0 5.5 4.9 5.1 3.4 6.2 4.8 6.2 6.3 6.5 5.3 5.3 4.1 3.3 3.3 2.6 3.7 3.5 4.1 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.8 4.3 4.3 3.2 3.4 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2 2.7 2.9 2.9 34.2 34.2 34.2 34.2 34.7 34.4 34.1 33.8 33.9 33.9 33.6 33.3 32.7 32.9 32.8 32.2 32.3 32.0 31.0 30.4 29.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 WAGES AND INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS 2010 2011 2012 2011 2012 2013 2011 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 10 11 12 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, y-o-y growth rates, % Activity - Total 3.9 2.0 0.1 2.0 1.7 1.1 1.6 0.3 -0.7 -1.0 -1.0 -0.5 1.5 1.1 0.8 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 5.7 3.1 -1.1 4.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -0.8 1.1 0.2 4.1 -3.5 B Mining and quarrying 4.0 3.9 3.6 0.3 5.8 5.9 8.4 10.6 2.2 -5.2 4.1 -6.8 9.7 2.2 6.8 C Manufacturing 8.9 3.9 2.5 3.6 3.5 3.1 3.4 2.5 2.0 2.3 1.6 2.9 2.8 4.6 1.8 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 3.8 2.3 3.3 5.2 3.5 -0.5 5.6 3.9 4.9 -0.5 6.2 2.8 3.7 -8.1 5.6 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 2.2 -0.1 0.1 1.5 1.1 -2.7 2.1 -0.5 0.4 -1.4 0.3 0.1 2.2 -7.5 -1.3 F Constrution 4.5 1.9 -2.5 1.5 0.3 0.5 -0.3 -2.8 -2.8 -3.8 -2.4 -2.1 -0.5 2.3 -0.5 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 3.7 2.8 0.8 2.6 2.3 3.0 2.1 1.6 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 2.4 4.3 2.4 H Transportation and storage 2.0 2.7 -0.4 3.0 3.9 1.6 2.2 0.6 -1.7 -2.3 -1.1 0.2 3.5 0.8 0.8 I Accommodation and food service activities 4.0 2.1 -0.8 2.4 2.0 -0.6 -0.4 -0.7 -1.0 -1.1 -1.3 -0.7 0.6 -1.9 -0.3 J Information and communication 2.6 0.9 -0.4 1.2 1.8 -0.2 0.3 1.3 -1.2 -2.0 -0.6 -2.7 1.2 -0.4 -1.3 K Financial and insurance activities 1.0 0.7 1.1 2.4 0.8 -2.4 4.5 -1.7 2.2 -0.3 -2.1 1.2 -0.6 -6.2 0.5 L Real estate activities 2.9 3.0 -0.6 2.9 3.4 1.6 1.1 -1.3 -0.6 -1.3 -1.1 0.2 1.7 1.0 2.0 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 1.6 -0.4 -1.1 0.2 -0.6 -1.6 -0.5 -0.8 -1.7 -1.3 -2.2 -3.4 0.5 -2.9 -2.3 N Administrative and support service activities 4.0 3.5 0.7 3.2 3.9 2.7 3.0 0.3 -0.9 0.2 -2.4 0.7 2.4 3.2 2.5 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security -0.6 0.3 -1.8 0.6 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -1.5 -3.2 -2.4 -2.4 -2.1 -1.3 0.2 -0.1 P Education 0.6 0.2 -3.3 -0.1 -0.3 0.4 -0.3 -2.2 -5.0 -5.6 -5.4 -4.2 1.0 -0.4 0.5 Q Human health and social work activities -0.3 -0.7 -1.3 -0.8 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -1.0 -1.7 -2.1 -2.3 -2.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 0.5 -0.7 -2.8 -1.2 -1.0 -0.3 -0.6 -1.5 -4.4 -4.6 -5.7 -3.8 1.6 -1.6 -0.8 S Other service activities 4.2 0.9 -0.9 1.5 0.6 -1.1 0.5 -0.6 -1.0 -2.4 -0.6 -0.7 0.0 -1.6 -1.8 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS1, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate,2 nominal -2.1 -0.1 -1.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 -0.5 -1.3 -1.8 -1.4 0.2 0.6 -0.1 0.2 0.1 Real (deflator HICP) -1.8 -1.0 -1.1 -0.5 -1.2 -0.5 -0.9 -1.3 -1.2 -0.8 0.9 0.8 -0.5 -0.3 -0.7 Real (deflator ULC) -1.6 -2.3 -3.0 -1.4 -2.1 -2.8 -1.9 -3.3 -3.7 -3.0 -2.5 -1.3 USD/EUR 1.3268 1.3917 1.2856 1.4393 1.4126 1.3480 1.3110 1.3196 1.2515 1.2974 1.3204 1.3066 1.3706 1.3556 1.3179 Source of data: SURS, ECB; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 Change of the source for effective exchange rate series as of April 2012: a new source, ECB; before that, own calculations (IMAD). 2 Harmonised effective exchange rate - a group of 20 EU Member States and 17 euro area countries; an increase in value indicates appreciation of the national currency and vice versa. 2012 2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2.2 2.0 0.7 1.0 1.3 -1.3 -0.1 -0.7 -1.2 0.4 -2.4 -0.7 -0.3 -1.7 -1.0 -0.2 -0.8 -0.4 0.8 -0.4 2.1 0.3 -2.1 -0.1 -0.5 -2.5 1.3 -1.9 -3.9 2.5 -5.9 -2.0 1.8 -4.6 0.2 0.6 1.5 1.1 2.2 -3.6 10.0 11.9 3.8 4.0 14.9 13.2 1.4 5.4 -0.2 1.5 1.7 -18.0 10.4 0.6 1.1 -5.4 -10.3 -4.8 -1.8 -4.9 4.5 3.8 1.9 2.7 3.9 1.0 4.3 1.3 0.3 5.2 0.5 1.4 3.5 0.3 1.1 4.4 2.3 2.0 3.4 2.0 5.5 8.0 3.6 5.2 6.5 0.3 4.0 2.6 8.3 7.8 -6.6 -0.5 5.0 2.6 10.9 6.6 0.7 1.3 10.0 3.1 3.1 2.8 0.5 0.4 0.7 -2.5 4.0 -0.1 -2.6 2.2 -7.0 1.5 2.7 -1.1 -0.8 1.6 -0.2 -1.1 -0.5 1.7 1.1 1.4 -3.1 -1.3 -0.4 -6.6 -1.4 -1.9 -5.1 0.2 -6.8 -4.6 -1.2 -3.0 -2.9 -2.2 -3.2 -0.9 1.1 -1.7 3.3 2.2 1.0 2.9 1.8 0.0 0.7 0.5 -1.0 0.5 -0.8 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 0.4 -0.5 0.6 -0.1 1.1 -0.4 3.7 0.8 2.0 1.5 2.1 -1.9 -6.3 -1.3 2.7 -1.1 -3.9 -1.6 -1.1 -1.4 -0.8 0.7 0.3 -0.4 1.7 0.3 0.2 0.4 -1.7 -1.4 0.5 -1.2 -0.1 -1.1 -1.9 -0.9 -0.9 -1.4 -2.4 -1.3 -0.2 0.1 -0.6 -1.7 -0.7 -1.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 2.3 1.7 -0.1 0.8 -1.2 -3.1 0.1 -7.1 1.6 -1.1 -0.5 -0.1 -4.3 -1.9 -1.9 -0.8 -1.8 1.5 8.4 3.8 -0.4 -4.4 -0.2 1.8 1.8 3.0 3.5 -4.0 0.3 -1.0 -3.6 -1.6 0.4 3.5 -0.1 4.0 -1.4 2.3 2.5 -1.5 -0.1 -1.3 -2.4 0.1 -1.0 -1.1 0.1 -2.3 -1.6 -0.4 -2.1 -0.7 -0.2 0.6 0.2 -0.3 -1.4 0.0 -0.5 -1.1 -0.7 1.0 -2.7 -0.8 -1.9 -2.4 -0.9 -1.9 -1.0 -0.3 -3.5 -2.8 -3.0 -4.1 -3.0 -2.3 -2.4 2.1 5.1 2.0 -0.2 1.7 -0.6 -0.1 0.0 -2.5 1.4 -1.1 0.5 -0.5 -4.3 -2.3 1.4 0.0 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.6 -0.4 -0.7 -0.7 -0.3 -3.5 -3.4 -3.3 -2.9 -2.9 -2.6 -1.6 -1.7 -2.9 -2.6 -2.2 -3.0 -1.0 -0.4 -0.8 0.1 -0.6 -0.5 -1.5 -0.4 -4.6 -4.8 -5.0 -5.2 -5.8 -5.8 -5.3 -5.9 -5.0 -5.4 -4.2 -5.8 -2.5 -2.4 -2.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.6 -0.3 -1.0 -1.6 -2.2 -2.0 -1.0 -2.8 -3.0 -0.4 -2.7 -2.5 -1.6 -3.0 -2.1 -1.7 -2.2 -1.8 -1.3 -1.9 1.3 -0.9 0.0 -3.5 -4.1 -3.6 -5.4 -6.3 -3.9 -3.7 -4.7 -4.7 -7.5 -4.0 -3.2 -4.2 -0.7 -2.6 2.0 -0.4 0.0 -0.6 0.1 -1.2 -0.1 -2.2 -0.7 -1.2 -4.0 -1.9 -0.8 -0.1 -0.7 1.0 -1.2 -1.9 -0.8 -1.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.9 -1.2 -1.2 -1.5 -1.8 -2.1 -1.5 -1.6 -1.7 -0.9 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.6 2.0 -0.9 -0.6 -1.3 -1.1 -1.4 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -0.5 -1.0 -1.3 -0.2 0.8 1.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 1.6 2.7 2.7 1.2905 1.3224 1.3201 1.3162 1.2789 1.2526 1.2288 1.2400 1.2856 1.2974 1.2828 1.3119 1.3288 1.3359 1.2964 1.3026 1.2982 1.3189 1.3080 1.3310 PRICES 2010 2011 2012 2011 2012 2013 2011 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 7 8 9 10 11 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 1.8 1.8 2.6 1.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.9 2.6 2.3 1.5 2.1 0.9 0.9 2.1 2.7 2.7 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 1.0 4.4 4.1 3.7 5.1 3.9 4.2 3.9 4.4 4.4 3.6 4.1 2.9 3.8 4.4 5.6 4.8 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 7.2 5.7 6.5 3.7 4.9 4.2 5.1 7.2 9.5 10.6 7.5 7.4 5.4 2.8 3.0 4.8 4.9 Clothing and footwear -1.9 -1.5 -0.2 -4.2 0.9 -2.2 1.6 0.7 -0.8 2.1 -1.2 1.0 -4.2 -4.9 -3.4 2.0 2.1 Housing, water, electricity, gas 10.2 5.6 3.8 4.8 5.4 4.9 4.2 4.4 1.8 2.1 2.9 2.8 4.4 4.9 5.1 5.5 5.7 Furnishings, household equipment 1.4 2.7 0.1 2.4 1.7 1.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.9 -1.1 -1.8 -1.2 3.5 1.7 2.1 1.8 2.0 Medical, pharmaceutical products 2.1 1.6 0.4 0.8 0.3 -0.2 1.4 0.2 0.3 -0.2 -2.1 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.2 Transport -0.3 1.0 3.3 1.1 1.7 2.6 3.2 3.9 3.5 1.5 -0.5 0.5 0.1 1.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 Communications 1.4 1.2 -2.4 2.3 -1.8 -1.2 -2.9 -3.6 -2.0 -3.8 -1.9 1.2 3.4 2.5 0.9 -1.8 -0.3 Recreation and culture 0.4 -1.5 1.4 -1.7 -0.8 2.6 1.2 1.2 0.4 -0.3 -0.5 0.6 -1.8 -2.0 -1.2 -0.3 -0.9 Education 1.6 1.7 2.9 1.9 1.4 1.1 1.3 4.3 4.8 4.6 4.6 1.4 1.6 1.6 2.5 1.8 0.9 Catering services -2.5 -6.8 4.5 -6.2 2.0 2.3 2.5 3.7 9.4 9.2 8.8 7.0 -10.2 -9.8 2.7 2.0 2.0 Miscellaneous goods & services 1.4 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.5 1.2 3.3 2.8 2.4 2.7 0.5 2.2 2.3 2.7 2.4 2.5 HCPI 2.1 2.1 2.8 1.5 2.6 2.5 2.5 3.2 3.0 2.7 1.8 2.2 1.1 1.2 2.3 2.9 2.8 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) 0.3 1.3 2.0 1.2 2.3 2.2 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.4 1.9 1.0 0.8 1.9 2.3 2.5 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total 2.1 4.5 0.9 4.1 3.6 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.2 -0.2 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.7 3.6 Domestic market 2.0 3.8 1.0 3.7 2.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.1 2.9 Non-domestic market 2.2 5.3 0.7 4.6 4.4 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.2 -0.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.3 4.3 euro area 2.2 6.1 0.1 5.1 4.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 -0.5 0.4 0.0 -0.7 4.8 5.2 5.2 4.4 4.7 non-euro area 2.1 3.6 2.0 3.5 3.8 3.4 2.0 1.3 1.5 0.6 0.7 -0.3 4.1 3.2 3.2 4.1 3.5 Import price indices 7.4 5.4 1.9 4.5 2.9 1.9 1.2 1.3 3.2 0.8 -0.5 -0.3 4.5 4.8 4.3 4.1 3.0 PRICE CONTROL,1 y-o-y growth rates, % Energy prices 16.5 10.9 12.7 8.3 10.8 12.1 12.5 14.5 11.6 5.6 0.1 -0.7 6.3 9.1 9.6 10.8 11.9 Oil products 17.3 11.9 13.0 9.9 11.7 12.3 12.7 14.4 12.6 6.4 0.4 0.4 7.7 10.8 11.3 12.3 12.7 Transport & communications 1.8 1.1 1.6 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 5.7 8.6 8.6 17.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Other controlled prices 1.3 0.0 -0.6 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 -1.8 -3.9 -2.9 -0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 Direct control - total 14.2 2.8 9.2 0.5 2.1 7.3 9.5 11.0 8.9 4.3 0.5 1.0 -1.0 1.1 1.4 2.2 2.9 Source of data: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 The structure of groups varies. Data for individual years are not fully comparable to those published previously. On 1 July 2007, the electricity market was liberalised. Since July 2007, the data are not comparable. 2 After a longer period of unchanged prices, at the beginning of 2013, the Decree on the pricing of mandatory local public services in the field of environmental protection (Official Gazette of the RS, No. 87/2012) transferred the responsibility for approving price changes to local communities. 2011 2012 2013 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2.0 2.3 2.9 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.9 3.3 2.7 2.3 2.7 2.4 2.7 2.0 1.5 1.2 1.9 2.6 2.2 1.4 4.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.7 4.3 3.7 4.1 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.2 4.7 5.2 4.1 3.9 3.3 3.1 4.4 4.4 4.3 3.5 4.9 4.1 3.9 4.7 5.1 5.2 5.1 7.4 7.1 7.0 9.6 9.5 9.4 11.2 10.7 10.0 7.8 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.1 -1.5 -2.2 -3.5 -1.2 0.2 3.0 1.6 0.8 1.8 -0.3 -1.5 -1.7 0.8 1.6 6.5 -1.3 0.0 -3.1 -0.5 1.1 0.1 1.7 5.0 4.7 5.3 4.7 4.0 3.7 4.9 3.9 4.2 5.2 2.7 1.5 1.3 0.7 2.8 2.9 3.3 2.8 2.5 3.4 2.7 2.1 1.4 1.3 1.5 0.8 0.7 0.1 -0.7 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.8 -1.2 -0.7 -0.5 -1.5 -1.1 -2.2 -1.9 -1.4 -1.3 -0.8 -1.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 1.5 1.5 1.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.2 -0.7 -2.0 -2.1 -2.2 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.0 2.5 3.3 4.1 2.8 2.6 2.4 4.5 4.7 3.9 3.3 3.4 2.0 1.9 0.6 -0.9 -0.9 0.2 2.0 0.0 -0.4 -3.3 -0.1 -1.2 -2.4 -2.6 -3.2 -2.8 -3.1 -4.4 -3.2 -1.6 -3.3 -1.1 -3.6 -4.6 -3.2 -2.2 -2.3 -1.3 0.0 2.5 1.1 -1.2 0.8 6.8 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.1 0.9 0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 0.7 0.9 0.2 1.6 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 5.9 5.7 4.8 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 0.1 -0.5 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.8 2.6 2.1 1.4 0.9 8.9 9.1 9.7 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.0 8.6 8.6 9.1 9.6 9.9 2.0 2.8 2.9 2.7 1.9 1.9 1.1 0.6 2.5 3.7 3.7 3.1 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.9 3.1 1.2 0.2 0.1 2.1 2.3 2.8 2.4 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.6 3.1 3.7 3.2 2.8 3.1 2.8 2.9 2.2 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.8 2.2 1.5 2.1 2.4 2.6 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.2 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.5 2.0 2.1 1.7 3.6 2.4 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.3 0.0 -0.4 2.6 1.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.3 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 4.5 3.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.3 -0.2 -0.6 -0.2 -0.9 4.7 2.8 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.5 -0.5 0.2 -0.1 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -0.3 -1.0 4.0 3.5 3.3 3.4 2.8 1.7 1.4 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.3 -0.3 0.0 -0.6 1.8 0.9 2.1 2.8 2.0 1.2 0.3 0.1 1.1 2.7 2.9 3.7 3.0 2.1 0.6 -0.3 -0.6 -1.3 0.5 1.2 -0.4 -1.6 9.7 10.3 12.0 13.8 14.7 11.8 10.9 10.1 14.6 18.8 14.7 10.4 9.8 7.5 6.4 2.9 -0.6 -0.7 1.8 3.8 -1.3 -4.2 10.3 10.5 12.2 14.2 15.3 11.9 10.8 9.2 14.4 19.4 15.8 11.4 10.5 8.1 7.7 3.6 -0.8 -0.9 3.1 5.5 -0.3 -3.5 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 17.3 17.3 17.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 -3.0 -1.1 -1.1 -3.9 -3.9 -3.9 -3.8 -3.8 -1.1 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 1.3 2.0 9.5 10.6 11.1 9.0 8.5 7.9 11.0 14.0 10.1 8.5 8.1 5.6 4.9 2.4 -0.1 -0.3 2.0 4.3 0.5 -1.6 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2010 2011 2012 2011 2012 2013 2011 Q^ Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 8 9 10 11 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, in EUR m Current account -50 146 1,159 120 -47 0 96 262 320 482 486 712 -110 17 84 7 Goods1 -830 -957 -110 -189 -194 -356 -149 -45 60 24 135 253 -132 -91 -39 -106 Exports 18,973 21,450 21,631 5,539 5,285 5,403 5,364 5,559 5,283 5,424 5,393 5,660 1,546 1,942 1,849 1,913 Imports 19,804 22,407 21,741 5,728 5,479 5,758 5,514 5,604 5,223 5,400 5,257 5,407 1,677 2,033 1,888 2,019 Services 1,281 1,476 1,803 406 377 375 418 444 528 414 504 536 132 155 152 127 Exports 4,593 4,842 5,166 1,186 1,393 1,217 1,118 1,237 1,502 1,310 1,201 1,311 467 461 414 381 Imports 3,312 3,365 3,363 781 1,016 841 700 793 974 896 698 776 335 305 263 254 Income -588 -524 -552 -128 -235 -81 -145 -168 -198 -42 -72 -80 -87 -55 -29 -37 Receipts 583 936 699 249 221 259 131 188 174 206 224 234 65 82 81 78 Expenditure 1,172 1,460 1,251 378 456 340 276 356 372 247 296 314 153 137 110 115 Current transfers 88 151 18 32 4 62 -28 31 -70 86 -80 4 -23 8 0 24 Receipts 1,231 1,404 1,410 328 319 371 348 366 285 411 332 355 74 125 96 117 Expenditure 1,143 1,253 1,392 296 315 310 377 336 355 325 412 352 97 118 96 94 Capital and financial account 530 -474 -1,206 -257 -81 -175 67 -249 -540 -484 -908 -876 -43 -94 -297 -53 Capital account 54 -85 -92 0 -3 -80 -24 11 -30 -49 -5 -40 -2 5 0 11 Financial account 476 -389 -1,114 -257 -78 -94 91 -260 -511 -434 -903 -835 -41 -99 -297 -64 Direct investment 428 633 166 236 260 151 146 98 84 -162 -52 -643 68 123 -83 -51 Domestic abroad 156 -85 212 32 54 -156 41 127 39 5 -101 58 41 57 -77 3 Foreign in Slovenia 272 718 -46 204 206 307 105 -29 45 -167 49 -701 26 66 -6 -54 Portfolio investment 1,956 1,839 -218 -297 -441 -20 -923 124 -982 1,564 132 2,042 -63 -448 225 -179 Financial derivatives -117 -155 -203 -19 -28 -24 -23 -21 -31 -129 23 -229 -4 -21 -8 2 Other investment -1,810 -2,777 -890 -188 98 -221 851 -455 439 -1,726 -1,073 -1,986 -57 218 -417 120 Assets 779 -1,490 -1,474 -169 -363 567 -1,466 -95 205 -118 -1,322 -703 -25 166 -361 301 Commercial credits -174 -49 65 -88 44 316 -347 -35 109 339 -360 -48 202 -118 -135 42 Loans 203 -55 -319 -22 48 19 3 -95 84 -310 26 -180 27 41 -48 23 Currency and deposits 669 -1,341 -1,177 -58 -422 249 -1,131 11 -33 -24 -982 -398 -235 244 -187 233 Other assets 81 -46 -45 0 -33 -18 10 24 45 -124 -6 -76 -18 -1 9 3 Liabilities -2,589 -1,287 584 -19 461 -788 2,317 -359 234 -1,608 250 -1,284 -32 51 -56 -181 Commercial credits 362 107 265 -19 -82 17 161 136 -96 63 -301 97 -253 178 -20 133 Loans -986 -1,234 -729 -298 203 -752 -121 -223 -178 -208 374 602 -41 5 -201 -429 Deposits -1,954 -169 1,026 334 340 -57 2,287 -288 530 -1,503 188 -1,981 237 -99 158 103 Other liabilities -11 9 23 -36 0 3 -11 17 -22 39 -12 -2 25 -33 7 12 International reserves2 19 72 31 12 33 19 39 -6 -21 19 67 -19 15 29 -15 44 Statistical error -480 328 47 137 128 174 -163 -13 220 2 421 164 153 77 214 46 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods 1,875 2,042 2,112 532 514 540 477 569 514 552 516 525 156 176 175 179 Intermediate goods 10,172 12,008 12,138 3,124 3,024 2,931 3,063 3,101 3,019 2,955 3,077 3,183 910 1,100 1,037 1,058 Consumer goods 6,592 6,950 6,811 1,769 1,631 1,803 1,685 1,734 1,604 1,788 1,676 1,833 441 627 597 632 Import of investment goods 2,324 2,505 2,402 617 589 736 562 584 570 687 645 663 166 219 203 226 Intermediate goods 12,247 14,107 14,005 3,610 3,472 3,490 3,636 3,578 3,410 3,382 3,477 3,465 1,065 1,283 1,209 1,262 Consumer goods 5,530 5,943 5,671 1,526 1,502 1,524 1,435 1,400 1,350 1,486 1,394 1,488 474 552 504 537 Source of data: BS, SURS. Note: 'Exports and imports (F.O.B.) include also the adjustment for exports and imports of goods by ITRS and duty-free shops reports. 2Reserve assets of the BS. 2011 2012 2013 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 3 4 5 6 7 8 -91 -23 -76 195 89 23 150 59 61 200 196 230 56 63 84 340 301 146 265 253 145 -211 -115 -39 4 7 -31 -21 48 -73 84 43 98 -117 -49 61 123 138 -14 129 144 9 1,641 1,646 1,726 1,992 1,807 1,862 1,891 1,829 1,606 1,848 1,961 1,926 1,537 1,717 1,741 1,935 1,966 1,850 1,844 1,965 1,546 1,851 1,761 1,765 1,988 1,800 1,892 1,912 1,781 1,679 1,764 1,918 1,828 1,654 1,765 1,680 1,812 1,828 1,865 1,714 1,821 1,537 97 152 106 161 148 156 140 147 189 192 183 145 86 168 122 214 171 185 179 190 191 421 377 325 417 392 410 434 512 512 477 467 415 427 388 351 462 427 434 451 525 518 325 225 219 256 244 254 295 366 323 285 284 270 341 220 229 248 256 249 271 335 327 -14 -35 -41 -68 -44 -99 -25 -110 -32 -56 -8 -14 -19 -26 -24 -23 -21 -31 -28 -31 -33 100 41 42 48 54 63 72 54 55 65 58 59 88 74 73 77 78 78 78 79 73 114 77 83 116 98 162 97 164 87 121 66 73 108 100 97 100 99 109 106 110 106 38 -25 -101 98 -23 -3 56 -25 -24 -21 -21 1 106 -30 -76 26 14 6 -16 -50 -23 158 73 68 207 97 113 156 112 85 88 90 109 212 86 95 151 138 115 102 100 91 120 97 169 110 120 116 100 137 109 109 112 108 106 116 171 125 124 110 118 151 113 176 87 152 -172 -168 -162 81 -55 -243 -242 -384 -348 248 -406 -97 -406 -347 -176 -353 -262 -332 -91 -4 -6 -14 24 5 -18 9 -10 -29 -13 -40 3 -1 -5 0 0 -27 -13 4 -12 267 90 158 -158 -193 -167 100 -65 -233 -213 -372 -308 245 -405 -92 -406 -346 -149 -340 -266 -319 285 -53 77 123 -92 144 45 87 -28 25 -45 31 -149 52 30 -134 -700 -2 59 50 3 -83 -12 17 36 -6 53 80 13 43 -16 -6 42 -32 -7 -3 -91 -7 24 40 -4 -1 367 -41 60 87 -86 91 -35 74 -71 41 -39 -11 -117 60 32 -43 -693 -26 18 54 4 -66 221 -820 -324 76 133 -86 -644 -152 -187 1,674 -54 -56 -156 17 271 -143 2,589 -404 -129 -114 -18 0 9 -31 -6 -7 -7 -9 -3 -19 -44 -40 -44 -34 65 -8 -8 -68 -153 -83 -55 76 -10 834 27 -171 -435 151 541 -46 -56 -1,982 -256 512 -291 -214 -568 488 -2,694 220 -22 -156 628 -612 102 -956 -383 119 169 122 147 -64 -294 -422 597 -346 -385 -591 -246 -427 -30 -33 188 409 -86 -85 -176 24 -32 -27 16 158 -65 -28 37 330 -66 -80 -214 -30 58 -76 -11 184 44 22 128 -147 -153 -28 86 40 51 -8 17 -49 -277 4 9 13 -71 -68 -41 11 75 203 -544 42 -629 -258 164 105 36 -77 8 -132 -406 514 -291 -315 -377 -76 -419 97 -35 -78 -29 -3 17 -4 4 15 5 30 15 0 -151 -4 31 6 1 -13 -70 3 -9 2 8 -551 602 732 983 212 -554 -18 419 -193 8 -1,688 166 -85 55 171 23 734 -2,267 250 11 -344 -96 -79 147 93 -16 -72 224 -8 -144 56 6 18 40 -234 85 -152 1 35 61 -123 -138 -121 77 -211 14 103 -213 -114 -83 -62 -32 14 -194 -28 34 -151 492 675 -14 -59 -383 44 -319 550 833 904 115 -278 -126 527 12 -9 -1,726 358 -136 274 234 -319 68 -2,299 251 524 -250 -15 54 -36 -29 10 9 -2 -17 1 -6 18 -17 38 -18 3 2 -10 12 -4 -7 0 -10 -68 59 48 0 -2 -4 -41 -3 23 26 11 -18 22 11 33 17 25 -61 -82 3 -85 -64 -76 -23 80 139 -231 -4 182 42 188 118 -304 343 13 66 45 30 88 9 187 186 144 159 175 183 189 196 172 164 179 193 191 168 155 159 202 180 176 169 198 N/A 837 957 996 1,110 1,009 1,049 1,042 1,052 935 1,032 1,116 1,062 777 1,007 989 1,081 1,110 1,053 1,020 1,112 N/A 573 500 528 657 559 572 603 554 460 590 610 628 550 507 557 612 635 583 615 610 N/A 307 174 159 228 186 201 197 217 163 190 219 209 259 195 195 254 218 259 186 199 N/A 1,018 1,171 1,171 1,294 1,177 1,209 1,192 1,175 1,096 1,140 1,244 1,160 978 1,223 1,110 1,144 1,201 1,201 1,064 1,177 N/A 483 447 456 533 449 475 475 442 447 461 530 508 448 444 467 483 491 489 507 513 N/A MONETARY INDICATORS AND INTEREST RATES 2010 2011 2012 2011 2012 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 138 102 221 76 76 76 76 77 76 83 102 111 119 182 Central government (S. 1311) 3,419 4,299 5,057 3,327 3,282 3,276 3,328 3,355 3,387 3,436 4,299 4,465 4,580 4,801 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 526 584 610 530 533 534 536 535 541 554 584 588 589 588 Households (S. 14, 15) 9,282 9,454 9,267 9,383 9,425 9,507 9,490 9,468 9,481 9,467 9,454 9,421 9,391 9,412 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 21,646 20,876 19,470 21,714 21,725 21,656 21,537 21,369 21,444 21,434 20,876 20,976 20,896 20,933 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 2,497 2,229 2,135 2,341 2,325 2,323 2,292 2,298 2,286 2,277 2,229 2,210 2,234 2,323 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 5,811 5,445 5,194 5,275 5,259 5,224 5,422 5,375 5,491 5,224 5,445 5,111 4,846 5,644 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 35,994 35,692 34,558 35,811 35,836 35,720 35,854 35,763 35,970 35,784 35,692 35,407 35,334 36,103 In foreign currency 1,843 1,536 1,309 1,751 1,724 1,794 1,705 1,628 1,586 1,557 1,536 1,529 1,505 1,492 Securities, total 5,345 5,659 5,862 5,008 4,990 5,007 5,046 5,008 5,075 5,052 5,659 5,837 5,697 6,105 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 26,767 28,420 29,582 27,205 27,384 27,392 27,423 27,337 27,631 27,376 28,420 28,359 27,926 30,197 Overnight 8,155 8,245 8,678 8,237 8,259 8,303 8,241 8,236 8,058 8,436 8,245 8,399 8,195 8,177 With agreed maturity -short-term 8,193 7,868 7,056 8,614 8,615 8,471 8,468 8,369 8,372 7,791 7,868 7,688 7,468 7,553 With agreed maturity -long-term 10,337 12,248 13,780 10,324 10,470 10,567 10,662 10,683 11,148 11,089 12,248 12,180 12,171 14,395 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 82 59 68 30 40 51 52 49 53 60 59 92 92 72 Deposits in foreign currency, total 463 579 552 459 464 488 476 486 494 538 579 570 564 577 Overnight 285 386 372 295 304 317 305 320 329 365 386 391 384 384 With agreed maturity -short-term 121 133 123 111 107 113 108 109 109 114 133 117 120 132 With agreed maturity -long-term 55 59 56 52 52 57 62 57 55 58 59 61 59 60 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.21 0.22 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.26 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.23 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 1.81 2.15 2.31 2.15 2.20 2.20 2.18 2.17 2.24 2.27 2.28 2.39 2.35 2.38 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 5.53 5.46 5.48 5.42 5.52 5.39 5.49 5.45 5.50 5.43 5.27 5.37 5.40 5.46 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 5.76 5.69 5.32 5.82 5.97 6.17 6.48 5.91 4.25 5.20 6.51 3.79 3.00 6.04 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operation^ 1.0^ 1.2^ 0.8^ 1.2^ 1.2^ 1.5^ 1.5^ 1.5^ 1.5^ 1.2^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.00 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates 0.81 1.39 0.57 1.42 1.49 1.60 1.55 1.54 1.58 1.48 1.43 1.22 1.05 0.86 6-month rates 1.08 1.64 0.83 1.71 1.75 1.82 1.75 1.74 1.78 1.71 1.67 1.50 1.35 1.16 LIBOR CHF 3-month rates 0.19 0.12 0.07 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.06 0.01 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.10 6-month rates 0.27 0.18 0.15 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.12 0.05 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.14 0.16 Source of data: BS, BBA - British Bankers' Association. 2012 2013 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 |2|3|4|5|6|7|8|9 169 188 204 227 227 207 226 224 221 232 233 229 233 233 233 233 232 231 4,752 4,796 4,811 4,870 4,814 4,874 5,138 5,144 5,057 5,036 5,111 5,048 5,451 5,361 4,999 5,108 5,024 4,995 591 580 584 589 590 585 583 580 610 609 613 609 610 600 600 601 601 604 9,380 9,380 9,362 9,341 9,346 9,338 9,341 9,318 9,267 9,191 9,160 9,159 9,141 9,107 9,099 9,050 9,059 9,052 20,922 20,843 20,693 20,561 20,506 20,398 20,294 20,044 19,470 19,425 19,265 19,152 19,022 18,889 18,832 18,639 18,633 18,501 2,320 2,300 2,291 2,247 2,244 2,210 2,204 2,186 2,135 2,116 2,102 2,028 2,000 1,990 1,999 1,992 1,983 1,978 5,527 5,613 5,918 5,248 5,229 5,210 4,930 5,012 5,194 5,085 5,300 5,389 4,957 5,423 5,255 5,190 5,320 5,311 35,955 35,979 36,202 35,461 35,440 35,316 35,131 34,943 34,558 34,349 34,342 34,336 33,765 34,040 33,902 33,612 33,754 33,705 1,472 1,458 1,439 1,423 1,402 1,372 1,354 1,348 1,309 1,263 1,277 1,264 1,236 1,235 1,223 1,203 1,192 1,177 6,066 6,076 6,018 5,972 5,886 5,928 6,004 5,990 5,862 5,846 5,927 5,780 6,177 6,091 5,657 5,762 5,669 5,554 30,165 30,208 30,322 29,703 29,591 29,354 29,457 30,062 29,582 29,575 29,961 30,070 29,665 30,497 29,943 30,228 30,184 30,193 8,404 8,375 9,151 8,573 8,632 8,523 8,648 8,763 8,678 8,726 9,185 8,997 8,919 8,806 8,923 9,124 9,055 8,812 7,362 7,441 7,111 7,134 7,052 6,964 6,980 7,417 7,056 6,905 6,827 7,140 7,148 7,712 7,626 7,652 7,696 8,261 14,319 14,309 13,982 13,930 13,852 13,751 13,755 13,763 13,780 13,863 13,829 13,775 13,424 13,787 13,189 13,203 13,159 12,841 80 83 78 66 55 116 74 119 68 81 120 158 174 192 205 249 274 279 568 559 583 597 591 579 571 576 552 538 554 549 520 548 536 520 541 521 385 381 397 410 412 397 388 399 372 372 383 363 361 354 340 342 362 333 124 116 125 125 119 124 126 119 123 109 114 128 103 103 113 97 95 109 58 61 60 61 59 57 56 57 56 56 56 57 55 91 82 81 84 79 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.19 0.19 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.10 2.38 2.37 2.29 2.27 2.23 2.23 2.28 2.28 2.24 2.28 2.18 2.10 2.01 2.01 1.97 1.89 1.78 5.36 5.45 5.42 5.37 5.41 5.62 5.53 6.00 5.31 5.46 6.40 5.03 5.49 5.39 5.30 5.34 5.31 5.81 6.27 5.83 3.94 5.06 6.52 6.51 5.48 5.57 3.75 3.76 3.70 3.48 5.68 3.03 2.66 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.7^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.5^ 0.50 0.74 0.68 0.66 0.50 0.33 0.25 0.21 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.22 0.21 0.21 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.23 1.04 0.97 0.93 0.78 0.60 0.48 0.41 0.36 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.33 0.32 0.30 0.32 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.11 0.11 0.09 0.07 0.05 0.05 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.18 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.16 0.16 0.11 0.12 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 PUBLIC FINANCE 2010 2011 2012 2011 2012 2013 2012 Q^ Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 1 2 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS-IMF methodology), current prices, EUR m GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 14,794.0 14,982.3 14,999.1 3,826.7 3,538.4 4,016.5 3,618.4 3,712.2 3,577.2 4,091.3 3,420.0 3,495.3 1,181.7 1,094.3 Current revenues 13,771.5 14,037.9 14,030.6 3,638.6 3,319.1 3,715.6 3,410.8 3,485.9 3,367.4 3,766.5 3,184.7 3,293.5 1,152.0 1,056.4 Tax revenues 12,848.4 13,209.2 13,118.3 3,451.0 3,129.7 3,472.7 3,172.7 3,314.0 3,170.4 3,461.2 2,946.8 3,107.4 1,106.6 952.1 Taxes on income and profit 2,490.7 2,723.5 2,656.6 827.7 562.9 697.5 629.5 723.0 511.1 793.0 577.1 510.9 214.7 219.2 Social security contributions 5,234.5 5,267.6 5,244.1 1,316.9 1,303.8 1,346.2 1,342.5 1,332.8 1,306.4 1,262.4 1,264.9 1,283.4 443.5 438.0 Taxes on payroll and workforce 28.1 29.2 25.6 7.6 6.7 8.2 7.2 6.4 5.8 6.1 5.5 6.1 2.0 2.0 Taxes on property 219.7 215.2 233.9 53.8 84.2 53.1 26.6 64.8 79.4 63.1 24.2 67.8 8.2 9.7 Domestic taxes on goods and services 4,780.7 4,856.2 4,876.1 1,217.4 1,148.4 1,324.9 1,164.0 1,164.5 1,244.1 1,303.4 1,039.2 1,224.7 443.6 282.4 Taxes on international trade & transactions 90.7 100.2 82.5 27.6 23.8 25.1 22.3 21.9 17.9 20.5 19.4 22.9 6.7 7.3 Other taxes 4.0 17.2 -0.6 -0.1 -0.2 17.6 -19.4 0.5 5.8 12.6 16.5 -8.4 -12.1 -6.6 Non-tax revenues 923.0 828.7 912.3 187.6 189.5 242.9 238.1 171.9 197.0 305.3 237.9 186.1 45.4 104.3 Capital revenues 175.7 65.3 62.5 21.6 14.4 21.7 10.5 10.8 11.7 29.5 10.7 13.1 2.2 4.2 Grants 12.6 10.4 9.2 3.0 1.0 4.0 1.3 1.8 1.6 4.5 12.9 2.7 0.2 0.3 Transferred revenues 109.5 53.8 51.7 0.4 50.5 0.6 0.1 0.5 50.0 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 Receipts from the EU budget 724.7 814.9 845.1 163.2 153.3 274.6 195.6 213.2 146.6 289.7 211.2 185.6 27.2 33.5 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TOTAL EXPENDITURES 16,692.7 16,546.3 16,125.7 4,159.0 3,955.7 4,240.0 4,326.5 3,857.4 3,836.0 4,105.7 4,129.2 4,002.4 1,491.0 1,446.9 Current expenditures 6,960.4 6,926.7 6,813.5 1,742.3 1,645.5 1,640.3 1,995.1 1,668.7 1,553.2 1,596.6 1,838.8 1,813.6 679.4 648.3 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3,912.4 3,882.7 3,727.7 1,010.3 955.0 950.4 958.3 973.9 910.8 884.7 903.5 931.6 331.1 316.5 Expenditures on goods and services 2,512.4 2,443.4 2,373.0 615.7 603.4 638.9 589.7 599.1 551.1 633.1 560.1 565.4 206.6 191.7 Interest payments 488.2 526.7 647.9 108.1 78.0 29.3 431.8 81.5 79.4 55.3 319.1 295.2 136.4 134.8 Reserves 47.4 73.9 64.9 8.2 9.1 21.6 15.3 14.3 11.8 23.4 56.2 21.3 5.4 5.3 Current transfers 7,628.5 7,818.9 7,687.0 2,076.4 1,855.7 1,944.4 1,957.3 1,878.7 1,903.2 1,947.8 1,944.9 1,890.4 707.5 632.8 Subsidies 581.9 496.3 502.7 127.6 69.1 128.2 177.1 107.8 57.3 160.5 190.5 111.9 117.0 40.5 Current transfers to individuals and households 6,277.7 6,533.5 6,384.2 1,745.6 1,583.0 1,598.3 1,609.2 1,588.7 1,636.6 1,549.7 1,576.7 1,586.0 535.4 534.5 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 728.8 737.2 741.0 186.2 189.0 203.2 158.0 169.6 196.7 216.8 154.4 181.8 49.0 53.4 Current transfers abroad 40.1 52.0 59.0 17.0 14.5 14.6 13.0 12.5 12.6 20.8 23.3 10.7 6.1 4.3 Capital expenditures 1,310.6 1,023.5 915.0 196.5 266.5 391.6 165.3 179.2 223.4 347.2 141.1 145.9 56.7 55.0 Capital transfers 396.4 372.1 319.9 73.3 97.0 159.4 47.0 44.3 74.3 154.3 42.5 52.0 12.3 18.6 Payments to the EU budget 396.8 405.1 390.3 70.6 91.0 104.4 161.8 86.5 82.0 59.9 161.8 100.5 35.1 92.2 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -1,898.7 -1,564.1 -1,126.6 - - - - - - - - - - - Source of data: Bulletin of Government Finance. Note: In line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the general government are not consolidated. * Data on revenues for November 2012 include corrections in DURS records for the period January-October 2012, which were due to the rectification of technical errors in the new DURS information system. 2012 2013 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11M 12 1|2|3|4|5|6|7|8 1,342.3 1,283.2 1,159.7 1,269.3 1,188.8 1,234.9 1,153.5 1,300.4 1,304.0 1,486.9 1,183.1 1,143.6 1,093.3 1,186.9 1,134.2 1,174.2 1,289.8 1,204.7 1,202.5 1,230.7 1,101.4 1,153.8 1,120.0 1,189.9 1,057.5 1,256.4 1,228.5 1,281.6 1,130.5 1,072.6 981.6 1,107.7 1,061.4 1,124.4 1,225.2 1,159.4 1,114.0 1,174.5 1,049.3 1,090.3 1,059.0 1,107.5 1,003.9 1,188.8 1,161.5 1,111.0 1,076.5 955.1 915.2 1,046.5 997.0 1,063.9 1,061.0 1,063.1 195.6 248.3 194.8 279.9 91.6 210.5 209.0 215.7 311.1 266.3 199.9 194.1 183.1 70.9 163.5 276.6 62.6 188.7 461.0 441.3 449.0 442.5 432.2 446.0 428.2 430.0 360.0 472.3 424.7 418.9 421.4 432.4 426.3 424.7 423.0 419.4 3.2 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.2 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.6 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.6 8.7 10.5 27.4 26.9 26.3 26.4 26.6 20.0 30.5 12.7 6.1 9.0 9.0 17.3 30.4 20.1 32.1 29.3 438.0 460.7 371.2 332.7 496.8 414.2 333.2 512.5 444.9 346.1 438.3 319.3 281.6 521.1 375.5 328.1 527.3 408.0 8.3 8.8 6.6 6.5 5.9 5.6 6.3 7.6 7.5 5.4 5.3 6.3 7.9 8.3 7.6 7.0 6.6 6.3 -0.7 2.7 -1.9 -0.3 4.2 3.0 -1.4 1.0 5.9 5.7 0.3 5.7 10.5 -5.7 -8.2 5.5 7.2 9.7 88.5 56.2 52.1 63.6 60.9 82.4 53.6 67.6 67.0 170.7 54.1 117.5 66.3 61.2 64.4 60.5 164.2 96.3 4.1 2.4 3.5 4.8 4.7 2.9 4.1 3.6 5.3 20.6 4.0 3.5 3.1 4.1 4.6 4.4 5.8 2.6 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.3 1.1 3.1 0.2 12.4 0.3 0.9 0.3 1.4 10.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.1 49.8 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.4 134.9 49.4 53.9 109.9 63.7 41.3 41.6 39.7 68.9 181.1 47.9 55.1 108.2 74.1 67.9 43.6 48.0 42.0 1,388.7 1,366.7 1,249.3 1,241.5 1,346.7 1,241.2 1,248.1 1,332.7 1,352.4 1,420.6 1,456.8 1,346.5 1,325.9 1,450.0 1,255.0 1,297.4 1,367.5 1,178.1 667.4 628.1 515.4 525.2 530.0 507.0 516.2 563.7 530.6 502.2 663.7 566.9 608.2 725.4 517.1 571.0 498.4 459.2 310.7 329.8 315.6 328.5 323.3 305.0 282.5 294.3 314.8 275.6 325.4 267.3 310.7 292.8 279.0 359.7 289.5 288.5 191.4 216.0 192.1 191.0 199.0 195.1 157.0 215.4 209.5 208.3 198.2 155.3 206.6 197.3 193.5 174.6 198.4 161.4 160.6 77.3 2.6 1.6 5.1 2.2 72.1 48.5 2.3 4.5 133.3 101.8 83.9 227.9 38.8 28.5 3.9 1.7 4.7 5.0 5.2 4.1 2.5 4.7 4.6 5.5 4.1 13.8 6.8 42.4 7.0 7.3 5.7 8.3 6.5 7.6 617.1 638.5 627.2 613.0 697.0 607.4 598.8 611.3 662.3 674.2 679.6 639.7 625.6 637.5 630.3 622.6 731.8 582.5 19.6 47.2 31.8 28.8 14.7 20.6 22.0 27.4 68.1 65.0 94.2 60.0 36.3 33.2 44.7 34.1 28.4 21.2 539.3 530.2 531.1 527.4 611.7 519.8 505.1 524.2 511.8 513.6 526.3 521.5 529.0 534.5 525.5 526.0 610.4 503.6 55.6 56.3 59.0 54.2 67.3 62.3 67.0 56.7 70.0 90.1 54.5 41.5 58.4 67.2 54.6 60.0 67.1 53.7 2.6 4.6 5.2 2.7 3.3 4.6 4.7 3.0 12.3 5.5 4.6 16.8 1.9 2.6 5.6 2.5 25.8 4.0 53.6 50.9 63.9 64.3 76.7 72.4 74.2 86.5 95.7 165.0 49.5 50.4 41.2 37.8 50.6 57.5 80.9 83.1 16.1 14.3 10.2 19.8 23.5 24.5 26.3 43.3 41.6 69.4 12.6 11.9 17.9 16.1 23.3 12.7 23.0 21.3 34.6 34.9 32.5 19.1 19.5 29.9 32.6 27.9 22.2 9.8 51.3 77.5 33.0 33.2 33.7 33.6 33.5 32.0 - - - - - - - - - Acronyms Acronyms in the text AJPES - Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, BoE - Bank of England, BoJ - Bank of Japan, BS - Bank of Slovenia, CHF - Swiss Franc, EC - European commission, ECB - European Central Bank, EIA - Energy Information Administration, EMU - European Monetary Union, ES - European Council, ESI - Economic Sentiment Indicator, ESS - Employment Service of Slovenia, ESSPROS - European System of Integrated Social Protection Statistics, Euribor - Euro Interbank Offered Rate, EUROSTAT - Statistical Office of the European Union, FED - Federal Reserve System, GBP - British pound, GDP - Gross domestic product, HICP-Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, HUF - Hungarian Forint, ifo - Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, IMAD - Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, IMD - International Institute for Management Development, IMF - International Monetary Fund, JPY - Japanese yen, LFS- Labour Force Survey, Libor - London Interbank Offered Rate, MF - Ministry of Finance, NEER - Nominal Effective Exchange Rate, NFI - Non-monetary Financial Institutions, OI - core inflation, OP RR - Operational Programme for Strengthening Regional Development Potentials, OP RČV, - Operational Programme for Human Resource Development, OP ROPI - Operational Programme of Environmental and Transport Infrastructure Development, PDII - Pension and Disability Insurance Institute, PMI - Purchasing Managers Index, PRS - Slovenian Business Register, REER - Real Effective Exchange Rate, RS - Republic of Slovenia, RULC - Relative Unit Labor Cost, SCA - Standard Classification of Activities, SRE - Statistical Register of Employment, SURS - Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, ULC - Unit Labour Costs, USD - US Dollar, ZUJF - Fiscal Balance Act, ZEW - Centre for European Economic Research, - Fiscal Balance Act , ZZZS - The Health Insurance Institute of Slovenia. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities (SCA) A - Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B - Mining and quarrying, C - Manufacturing, 10 - Manufacture of food products, 11 - Manufacture of beverages, 12 - Manufacture of tobacco products, 13 - Manufacture of textiles, 14 - Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15 - Manufacture of leather and related products, 16 - Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17 - Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18 - Printing and reproduction of recorded media, 19- Manufacture of coke andrefinedpetroleum products, 20 - Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21 - Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22 - Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23 - Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24 - Manufacture of basic metals, 25 - Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26 - Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27 - Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28 - Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c., 29- Manufactureof motorvehicles,trailersand semi-trailers, 30- Manufactureof othertransportequipment, 31 - Manufacture of furniture, 32 - Other manufacturing, 33 - Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D-Electricity,gas,steamandairconditioningsupply,E-Watersupplysewerage,wastemanagementandremediationactivities, F - Construction, G - Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H - Transportation and storage, I - Accommodation and food service activities, J - Information and communication, K - Financial and insurance activities, L -Real estate activities, M - Professional, scientific and technical activities, N - Administrative and support service activities, O -Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P - Education, Q - Human health and social work activities, R - Arts, entertainment and recreation, S - Other service activities, T - Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods- and services- producing activities of households for own use, U - Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AT-Austria, BA-Bosnia and Herzegovina, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, HR-Croatia, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IE-Ireland, IL-Israel, IT-Italy, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RS-Republic of Serbia, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America. Slovenian economic mirror October 2013, No. 10, Vol. XIX