27. FEBRUAR 2004 27 FEBRUARY 2004 17 RUDARSTVO IN PREDELOVALNE DEJAVNOSTI MINING AND MANUFACTURING št./No 6 št./No 63 Statistične informacije, št. 63/2004 2 Rapid Reports No 63/2004 Statistične informacije, št. 63/2004 Rapid Reports No 63/2004 3 Statistične informacije, št. 63/2004 4 Rapid Reports No 63/2004 METODOLOŠKA POJASNILA METHODOLOGICAL EXPLANATIONS NAMEN STATISTIČNEGA RAZISKOVANJA PURPOSE OF STATISTICAL SURVEY Namen kvalitativne Ankete o poslovnih tendencah (PA-IND/M) je mesečno pridobivanje informacij o trenutnih stanjih glavnih ekonomskih kazalcev ter ocenitev njihovega gibanja v naslednjih mesecih. Rezultati anket so osnova za izračun kazalca zaupanja v predelovalnih dejavnostih in kazalca gospodarske klime, ki vključuje poleg kazalca zaupanja v predelovalnih dejavnostih tudi kazalec zaupanja pri potrošnikih in kazalec zaupanja v trgovini na drobno. The purpose of the qualitative Survey on Business Tendency (hereinafter: PA-IND/M) is to get monthly information about current situations of major economic indicators and to evaluate their movement in the following months. The results of the survey are the basis for evaluation of the confidence indicator in manufacturing and latter on also for the sentiment indicator, which also includes the consumer confidence indicator and the confidence indicator in retail trade. Panelno anketo o poslovnih tendencah v predelovalnih dejavnostih izvajamo v Sloveniji od aprila 1995 s poenotenim vprašalnikom, na podlagi poenotene metodologije in z enako periodiko, kot jo izvajajo v državah članicah Evropske unije že več desetletij. Zato so vsi podatki neposredno primerljivi. We have been carrying out the Survey on Business Tendency in Manufacturing in Slovenia since April 1995 with the harmonised questionnaire, methodology and periodicity, which have been used in EU Member States for several decades. Therefore, all data are directly comparable. ENOTA OPAZOVANJA OBSERVATION UNITS Opazujemo podjetja, ki so razvrščena v predelovalne dejavnosti, to je v oddelke Standardne klasifikacije dejavnosti (SKD) od 15 do 36, ter so bila izbrana v panel podjetij na podlagi dveh meril: We are monitoring units that are registered in manufacturing - divisions 15 to 36 of the Standard Classification of Activities (SKD). They were selected into the panel by two criteria: velikosti podjetja (število zaposlenih, skladno z zakonom o gospodarskih družbah) in the size of the enterprise (the number of employees in accordance with the Companies Act) and razvrstitve podjetja po SKD-ju. the classification of the enterprise according to the SKD. VIRI SOURCES Na vprašalnik odgovarjajo direktorji podjetij ali drugi vodilni delavci med 1. in 10. v mesecu. Rezultate pa objavimo že okoli 20. v istem mesecu. Persons responding to the monthly questionnaire are managers of enterprises or other executives. They respond between the 1st and the 10th in the month. Results are published approximately on the 20th of the current month. ZAJETJE COVERAGE V panelni vzorec smo zajeli 96 % velikih podjetij (ali 96 % zaposlenih), 56 % srednjevelikih (ali 60 % zaposlenih) in 18 % malih podjetij (ali 19 % zaposlenih). Panelni vzorec pokriva 37 % podjetij vzorčnega okvira ali 76 % zaposlenih v predelovalnih dejavnostih. The panel includes 96% of large enterprises (or 96% of employees), 56% of medium-sized enterprises (or 60% of employees) and 18% of small enterprises (or 19% of employees); the panel covers 37% of the enterprises of the studied population or 76% of employees in manufacturing. NAČIN ZBIRANJA PODATKOV METHOD OF DATA COLLECTING Anketo izvajamo mesečno po pošti, vsako četrtletje (januar, april, julij in oktober) pa mesečni anketi dodamo še sedem četrtletnih vprašanj. The survey is carried out monthly by mail, each quarter (January, April, July and October) we are including seven more questions to the monthly survey. UTEŽEVANJE ODGOVOROV WEIGHTS FOR RESPONSES Odgovori so uteženi tako, da odražajo relativno pomembnost posameznega podjetja v vzorcu. Znotraj oddelkov SKD so odgovori uteženi s številom zaposlenih. Responses to individual questions are weighted so that they reflect relative importance of individual enterprise in the panel. Inside divisions of Standard Classification of Activities (SKD) responses are weighted with the number of employees. NEODGOVORI NON-RESPONSES Neodgovore vsak mesec obdelamo skladno s poenoteno metodologijo; delež neodgovorov se giba med 3-15 % (povprečno 9 %). Non-responses are processed every month in accordance with the harmonised methodology and vary between 3 and 15% (9% on average). DEFINICIJE DEFINITIONS Grafikoni prikazujejo ravnotežja po posameznih vprašanjih. Ravnotežje je razlika med pozitivnimi in negativnimi odgovori, izražena v odstotkih. Ravnotežja prikazujejo gibanje opazovanih ekonomskih spremenljivk (stanj in pričakovanj), ne pa dejanskih velikosti ekonomskih kazalcev. The charts show the balance by individual questions. The balance is the difference between positive and negative answers, expressed in percent. The balance shows the movement of observed economic variables (present situation and future expectations), and not the real size of economic indicators. Statistične informacije, št. 63/2004 Rapid Reports No 63/2004 5 Ko so prikazane daljše časovne vrste podatkov ali primerjave kazalcev z EU so vrednosti desezonirane. To so vrednosti, pri katerih je izključen vpliv sezone, vsebujejo pa trend-cikel in naključno komponento. Podatki za EU so desezonirani z metodo DAINTIES, za Slovenijo pa z metodo TRAMO/SEATS, ki temelji na ARIMA modelih. Pri oblikovanju modelov je upoštevano časovno obdobje od marca 1995 do januarja 2004. Zaradi narave podatkov se modeli za leto 2004 razlikujejo v primerjavi z modeli za leto 2003 le pri kazalcu zaupanja. Zaradi narave podatkov serija Ustreznost proizvodnih zmogljivosti ni desezonirana, saj sezonska komponenta ni prisotna. In the charts with longer time series or by comparisons with EU indicators, data are seasonally adjusted. Values are adjusted for seasonal component, which include trend-cycle component and irregular component. Data for EU are seasonally adjusted by DAINTIES method and for Slovenia by TRAMO/SEATS method, which is based on ARIMA models. The designing of the models is based on the time period from March 1995 till January 2004. Because of the nature of data, models for 2004 differ from those used in 2003 only by confidence indicator. Because of the nature of data the series Current production capacity is not seasonally adjusted, because of absence of seasonal component. Kazalec zaupanja je povprečje odgovorov (ravnotežij) na vprašanja o proizvodnih pričakovanjih, skupnih naročilih in zalogah končnih izdelkov (obrnjen predznak). The confidence indicator is defined as the arithmetic mean of the answers (balances) to the questions on production expectation, assessment of overall order books and assessment of stocks of finished products (the latter with inverted sign). OBJAVLJANJE PODATKOV PUBLISHING Sodelujoči v anketi prejmejo informacijo o oddelku SKD, v katerega se po dejavnosti razvrščajo in o predelovalnih dejavnostih, vendar le, če so izpolnili vprašalnik za tekoči mesec. Persons participating in the survey get the special information for division in which they are classified and for manufacturing. They get it only if they responded in the current month. Drugim uporabnikom so dostopni podatki na ravni predelovalnih dejavnosti in njenih oddelkov in po velikostnih razredih. Slednji so mesečno objavljeni v Statističnih informacijah. Other users can get data for manufacturing and its divisions. Data for manufacturing, large, medium and small enterprises are published in the Rapid Reports. MESEČNA VPRAŠANJA: MONTHLY QUESTIONS: • Proizvodni ritem v opazovanem mesecu: živahnejši, enak, šibkejši? • Production rhythm in the observed month: increased, remain unchanged, decreased? • Ocena ravni izvoznih naročil: višja kot normalno, normalna, nižja kot normalno? • Assessment of current export order books: above normal, normal, below normal? • Ocena ravni skupnih naročil: višja kot normalno, normalna, nižja kot normalno? • Assessment of current overall order books: above normal, normal, below normal? • Ocena ravni zalog končnih izdelkov: višja kot normalno, normalna, nižja kot normalno? • Assessment of current stock of finished products: above normal, normal, below normal? • Pričakovana proizvodnja v naslednjih 3 mesecih: naraščala, nespremenjena, padala? • Production expectations over the next 3 months: increase, remain unchanged, decrease? • Pričakovane cene v naslednjih 3 mesecih: naraščale, nespremenjene, padale? • Selling prices expectations over the next 3 months: increase, remain unchanged, decrease? • Pričakovano število zaposlenih v naslednjih 3 mesecih: povečalo, ostalo nespremenjeno, zmanjšalo? • Firm’s total employment expectations over the next 3 months: increase, remain unchanged, decrease? • Pričakovan izvoz v naslednjih 3 mesecih: naraščal, nespremenjen, padal? • Export orders expectations over the next 3 months: increase, remain unchanged, decrease? • Pričakovano skupno povpraševanje v naslednjih 3 mesecih: krepilo, enako, slabelo? • Expected total demand over the next 3 months: increase, remain unchanged, decrease? • Ob sedanjem proizvodnem ritmu je zagotovljena proizvodnja za: .... mesecev? • Duration of production assured by current overall order books: for … months? ČETRTLETNA VPRAŠANJA: QUARTERLY QUESTIONS: • Omejitveni dejavniki v proizvodnji: ni omejitev, nezadostno domače povpraševanje, nezadostno tuje povpraševanje, konkurenčen uvoz, pomanjkanje delavcev na splošno, pomanjkanje usposobljenih delavcev, pomanjkanje surovin, pomanjkanje polizdelkov, pomanjkanje ustrezne opreme, neplačništvo, finančni problemi, nejasna gospodarska zakonodaja, negotove gospodarske razmere, ostalo? • Limits to production: none, insufficient domestic demand, insufficient foreign demand, competitive imports, shortage of labour in general, shortage of skilled labour, shortage of raw materials, shortage of semi-finished products, lack of appropriate equipment, problems with unpaid bills, financial problems, unclear economic legislation, uncertain economic conditions, other? • Sedanje proizvodne zmogljivosti: prevelike, ustrezne, premajhne? • Assessment of current production capacity: more than sufficient, sufficient, not sufficient? • Sedanja stopnja izkoriščenosti zmogljivosti: .... odstotkov? • Current level of capacity utilisation: in percentage of full capacity? • Konkurenčni položaj podjetja na domačem trgu v zadnjih 3 mesecih: boljši, nespremenjen, slabši? • Competitive position on the domestic market over the past 3 months: improved, remained unchanged, deteriorated? • Konkurenčni položaj podjetja na trgih držav članic Evropske Unije v zadnjih 3 mesecih: boljši, nespremenjen, slabši? • Competitive position on the foreign markets inside the EU over the past 3 months: improved, remained unchanged, deteriorated? • Konkurenčni položaj podjetja na trgih zunaj Evropske Unije v zadnjih 3 mesecih: boljši, nespremenjen, slabši? • Competitive position on the markets outside the EU over the past 3 months: improved, remained unchanged, deteriorated? • Obseg novih naročil se je v zadnjih 3 mesecih: povečal, ostal nespremenjen, zmanjšal? • New orders over the past 3 months: increased, remain unchanged, decreased? Statistične informacije, št. 63/2004 6 Rapid Reports No 63/2004 KOMENTAR COMMENT Februarja so direktorji tendence v predelovalnih dejavnostih ocenili boljše kot pretekli mesec – desezonirana vrednost kazalca zaupanja je bila v februarju za 1 odstotno točko višja kot v januarju. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani je bila ta vrednost za 1 odstotno točko nižja, hkrati pa za 2 odstotni točki nad lanskim povprečjem. In February managers estimated business tendencies in manufacturing as being better than in the previous month. The seasonally adjusted value of the confidence indicator rose by 1 percentage point compared to the previous month. Compared to February 2003 the value of the confidence indicator fell by 1 percentage point and was 2 percentage points above last year’s average. Na gibanje kazalca zaupanja v tem mesecu sta vplivali nižja raven zalog končnih izdelkov in padec proizvodnih pričakovanj. The evolution of the confidence indicator in this month was influenced by the fall of stocks of finished products and the fall of production expectations. PROIZVODNJA in PROIZVODNA PRIČAKOVANJA PRODUCTION and PRODUCTION EXPECTATIONS Desezonirana vrednost kazalca proizvodnje se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem zvišala za 3 odstotne točke. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila višja za 11 odstotnih točk, glede na lansko povprečje pa za 3 odstotne točke višja. The seasonally adjusted value of the production indicator rose by 3 percentage points over the previous month. Compared to February 2003 it was up by 11 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 3 percentage points. Desezonirana vrednost kazalca proizvodnih pričakovanj za naslednje 3 mesece se je znižala za 8 odstotnih točk. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani je bila nižja za 6 odstotnih točk in za 1 odstotno točko od lanskega povprečja. The seasonally adjusted value of production expectations for the next three months fell by 8 percentage points. Compared to February 2003 it was down by 6 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 1 percentage point. ZAGOTOVLJENA PROIZVODNJA ASSURED PRODUCTION Ob februarskem proizvodnem ritmu imajo podjetja zagotovljeno proizvodnjo v povprečju za 4,4 meseca. To je enako kot lani v tem mesecu in za 0,1 meseca nad lanskim povprečjem. With the same production rhythm as in February, production in enterprises is assured on average for the next 4.4 months. This is the same as in February 2003 and 0.1 month over last year’s average. Največ podjetij (18,6 %) ima proizvodnjo zagotovljeno v povprečju za več kot 10 mesecev. Sledijo podjetja (17,9 %), ki imajo proizvodnjo zagotovljeno v povprečju za 3 mesece, in podjetja (14,7 %), ki imajo proizvodnjo zagotovljeno v povprečju za 2 meseca. Za pol meseca ima zagotovljeno proizvodnjo v povprečju 9,0 % podjetij, ob februarskem proizvodnem ritmu pa nima zagotovljene proizvodnje v povprečju 1,9 % podjetij. In most enterprises (18.6%) production is assured for more than 10 months. They are followed by enterprises whose production is assured for three months (17.9%) and enterprises whose production is assured for two months (14.7%). Should the February production rhythm continue, 9.0% of enterprises have production assured for half a month and 1.9% of enterprises have no assured production. IZVOZ in IZVOZNA PRIČAKOVANJA EXPORT ORDER BOOKS and EXPECTED EXPORT ORDER BOOKS Desezonirana vrednost kazalca ravni izvoznih naročil se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem znižala za 3 odstotne točke. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani je bila višja za 7 odstotnih točk in za 4 odstotne točke nad lanskim povprečjem. The seasonally adjusted value of the export order books indicator fell by 3 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to February 2003 it was up by 7 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 4 percentage points. Desezonirana vrednost kazalca pričakovanega izvoza za naslednje 3 mesece se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem znižala za 7 odstotnih točk. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani je bila nižja za 6 odstotnih točk in za 2 odstotni točki nad povprečjem lanskega leta. The seasonally adjusted value of expected export in the next three months fell by 7 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to February 2003 it was down by 6 percentage points while compared to last year’s average it was up by 2 percentage point. SKUPNA NAROČILA in PRIČAKOVANO SKUPNO POVPRAŠEVANJE OVERALL ORDER BOOKS and EXPECTED TOTAL DEMAND Desezonirana vrednost kazalca ravni skupnih naročil je ostala enaka v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila višja za 4 odstotne točke in enaka lanskoletnemu povprečju. The seasonally adjusted value of the overall order books indicator remained the same as in the previous month. Compared to February 2003 it was up by 4 percentage points and was the same as last year’s average. Statistične informacije, št. 63/2004 Rapid Reports No 63/2004 7 Desezonirana vrednost kazalca pričakovanega skupnega povpraševanja za naslednje 3 mesece se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem znižala za 12 odstotnih točk. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila nižja za 12 odstotnih točk, za 6 odstotnih točk pa je bila nižja od lanskega povprečja. The seasonally adjusted value of expected total demand for the next three months dropped by 12 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to February 2003 it was down by 12 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 6 percentage points. PRIČAKOVANE CENE SELLING PRICE EXPECTATIONS Desezonirana vrednost kazalca cenovnih pričakovanj za naslednje 3 mesece je ostala enaka v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani je bila nižja za 1 odstotno točko in enaka lanskoletnemu povprečju. The seasonally adjusted value of selling price expectations for the next three months remained the same as in the previous month. Compared to February 2003 it was down by 1 percentage point and was the same as last year’s average. ZALOGE STOCKS OF FINISHED PRODUCTS Desezonirana vrednost kazalca ravni zalog končnih izdelkov se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem znižala za 7 odstotnih točk. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila višja za 1 odstotno točko in enaka lanskoletnemu povprečju. The seasonally adjusted value of the stocks of finished products indicator fell by 7 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to February 2003 it was up by 1 percentage point and was the same as last year’s average. PRIČAKOVANO ZAPOSLOVANJE EXPECTED EMPLOYMENT Desezonirana vrednost kazalca pričakovanj glede zaposlovanja v naslednjih 3 mesecih se je glede na pretekli mesec znižala za 1 odstotno točko. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani je bila nižja za 4 odstotne točke in 1 odstotno točko pod lanskim povprečjem. The seasonally adjusted value of expected employment for the next three months fell by 1 percentage point compared to the previous month. Compared to February 2003 it was down by 4 percentage points while compared to last year’s average it was down by 1 percentage point. Statistično raziskovanje je sofinancirala Evropska komisija. Za objavljene podatke in besedila je odgovoren izključno Statistični urad Republike Slovenije in ne Evropska komisija. The business survey is co-financed by the European Commission. However, the European Commission accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever with regard to the material published in this document. Sestavila / Prepared by: Brigita Vrabič Kek Izdaja, založba in tisk Statistični urad Republike Slovenije, Ljubljana, Vožarski pot 12 - Uporaba in objava podatkov dovoljena le z navedbo vira - Odgovarja generalna direktorica mag. Irena Križman - Urednica zbirke Statistične informacije Avguština Kuhar de Domizio - Slovensko besedilo jezikovno uredila Ivanka Zobec - Angleško besedilo jezikovno uredil Boris Panič - Tehnični urednik Anton Rojc - Naklada 107 izvodov - ISSN zbirke Statistične informacije 1408-192X - ISSN podzbirke Rudarstvo in predelovalne dejavnosti 1408-8908 - Informacije daje Informacijsko središče, tel.: (01) 241 51 04 - El. pošta: info.stat@gov.si - http://www.stat.si. Edited, published and printed by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, Ljubljana, Vožarski pot 12 - These data can be used provided the source is acknowledged - Director-General Irena Križman - Rapid Reports editor Avguština Kuhar de Domizio - Slovene language editor Ivanka Zobec - English language editor Boris Panič - Technical editor Anton Rojc - Total print run 107 copies - ISSN of Rapid Reports 1408-192X - ISSN of subcollection Mining and Manufacturing 1408-8908 - Information is given by the Information Centre of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, tel.: +386 1 241 51 04 - E-mail: info.stat@gov.si - http://www.stat.si.