6. MAJ 2005 6 MAY 2005 št./No 123 20 TRGOVINA IN DRUGE STORITVENE DEJAVNOSTI DISTRIBUTIVE TRADE AND OTHER SERVICE ACTIVITIES št./No 20 POSLOVNE TENDENCE V TRGOVINI NA DROBNO, SLOVENIJA, APRIL 2005 BUSINESS TENDENCY IN RETAIL TRADE, SLOVENIA, APRIL 2005 V aprilu 2005 se je desezonirana vrednost kazalca zaupanja v trgovini na drobno glede na pretekli mesec dvignila za 4 odstotne točke. Vrednost kazalca se je dvignila tudi v primerjavi z lanskim aprilom in v primerjavi z lanskim povprečjem, in sicer za 2 odstotni točki oziroma 1 odstotno točko. In April 2005 the seasonally adjusted retail trade confidence indicator showed an increase compared to the previous month, i.e. by 4 percentage points. The indicator also went up compared to April 2004 and to last year's average, i.e. by 2 percentage points and 1 percentage point, respectively. Na dvig vrednosti kazalca zaupanja sta vplivali boljši oceni sedanjega in pričakovanega poslovnega položaja ter ocena o zmanjšanem obsegu zalog. This rise of the confidence indicator was determined by the improvement in the assessment of the present and expected business situation as well as by the assessment of the lower volume of stocks. Večina kazalcev stanj se je izboljšala, le kazalca obseg zalog in prodajne cene sta se poslabšala. Tudi večina kazalcev pričakovanj se je izboljšala, razen kazalcev pričakovane prodajne cene in pričakovano povpraševanje, ki sta se poslabšala. Situation indicators mostly improved. Only the indicators of the volume of stocks and the selling prices worsened. The expectation indicators mostly improved also. Exceptions were indicators of the expected selling prices and expected demand, which worsened. Slika 1: KAZALEC ZAUPANJA1) V SLOVENIJI IN EU2) JANUAR 1999 - APRIL 2005 Chart 1: CONFIDENCE INDICATOR1) IN SLOVENIA AND EU2) JANUARY 1999 - APRIL 2005 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 J 1999 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2000 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2001 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2002 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 F M A desezonirani podatki - Slovenija seasonally adjusted data - Slovenia desezonirani podatki - EU seasonally adjusted data - EU dolgoletno povprečje long-term average ©SURS % 1) Kazalec zaupanja je povprečje ravnotežij na vprašanja o sedanjem in pričakovanem poslovnem položaju ter sedanjem obsegu zalog (obrnjen predznak). The confidence indicator is an average of responses (balances) to questions on present and expected business situation and present volume of stocks (the latter with inverted sign). 2) Vir podatkov je Evropska komisija (http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/indicators/businessandconsumersurveys_en.htm). Podatki o EU za zadnji mesec niso na voljo. Source for EU data is European Commission (http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/indicators/businessandconsumersurveys_en.htm). Data for EU for the last month are not available. Statistične informacije, št. 123/2005 2 Rapid Reports No 123/2005 2. GIBANJE EKONOMSKIH KAZALCEV V TRGOVINI NA DROBNO V SLOVENIJI, JANUAR 1999 -APRIL 2005 EVOLUTION OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS IN RETAIL TRADE IN SLOVENIA, JANUARY 1999 - APRIL 2005 Ocena stanj Appreciation of situation Pričakovanja v naslednjih 3 mesecih Expectations in the next 3 months -15 0 15 30 45 60 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Poslovni položaj1) / Business situation1) 0 15 30 45 60 75 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Pričakovani poslovni položaj / Exected business situation -30 -15 0 15 30 45 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Prodajne cene¹) / Selling prices¹) -40 -20 0 20 40 60 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Pričakovane prodajne cene¹) / Selling prices expectations¹) -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Finančni položaj / Financial situation -50 -30 -10 10 30 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje1) / Expected employment1) 0 10 20 30 40 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Obseg zalog1) / Volume of stocks1) -15 0 15 30 45 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Pričakovana skupna nabava / Expected orders -20 0 20 40 60 80 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Raven prodaje¹) / Level of sales¹) -15 0 15 30 45 60 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Pričakovano povpraševanje / Expected demand originalni podatki raw data desezonirani podatki seasonally adjusted data dolgoletno povprečje long-term average 1) Sezonska komponenta ni prisotna. / No seasonal component. Statistične informacije, št. 123/2005 Rapid Reports No 123/2005 3 Ocena konkurenčnosti in gibanje prodaje / Appreciation of competition and evolution of sales -10 0 10 20 30 40 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Konkurenčnost / Competition -15 0 15 30 45 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Gibanje prodaje1) / Evolution of sales1) originalni podatki raw data desezonirani podatki seasonally adjusted data dolgoletno povprečje long-term average 1) Sezonska komponenta ni prisotna. / No seasonal component. Omejitveni dejavniki v trgovini na drobno / Obstacles in retail trade 0 20 40 60 80 100 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ni omejitev / no limits težave s povpraševanjem / demand difficulties težave s ponudbo / supply difficulties hude omejitve / severe obstacles Grafikon o omejitvah v trgovini na drobno prikazuje deleže podjetij, ki se soočajo z naslednjimi skupinami omejitev: –- Skupina "ni omejitev" zajema podjetja, ki nimajo težav pri prodaji. – Skupina "težave s povpraševanjem" zajema podjetja, ki imajo težave z nizkim povpraševanjem in konkurenco v sektorju. – Skupina "težave s ponudbo" zajema podjetja, ki imajo težave s slabo ponudbo, visokimi stroški dela, visoko ceno denarja, težavami z dostopnostjo do bančnih posojil, premajhno prodajno površino in premajhnimi skladiščnimi prostori. – Skupina "hude omejitve" zajema podjetja, ki imajo hkrati težave z dejavniki iz skupine "težave s povpraševanjem" kot tudi z dejavniki iz skupine "težave s ponudbo". The chart on retail trade obstacles shows the share of enterprises faced with the following groups of problems: - Group "no limits" includes enterprises with no limits to retail. - Group "demand difficulties" includes enterprises faced with low demand and competition in own sector. - Group "supply difficulties" includes enterprises faced with bad supply, high cost of labour, high cost of finance, problems with access to bank credits, small sales surface and small storage capacity. - Group "severe obstacles" includes enterprises faced with problems from the group "demand difficulties" and those from the group "supply difficulties" at the same time. Statistične informacije, št. 123/2005 4 Rapid Reports No 123/2005 3. GIBANJE EKONOMSKIH KAZALCEV V TRGOVINI NA DROBNO V SLOVENIJI IN EU1), JANUAR 1999 - APRIL 2005 EVOLUTION OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS IN RETAIL TRADE IN SLOVENIA AND EU1), JANUARY 1999 - APRIL 2005 Ocena stanj Appreciation of situation Pričakovanja v naslednjih 3 mesecih Expectations in the next 3 months -40 -20 0 20 40 60 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Poslovni položaj / Business situation -20 0 20 40 60 80 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % Pričakovani poslovni položaj / Expected business situation ©SURS 0 10 20 30 40 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Obseg zalog / Volume of stocks -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje / Expected employment -30 -15 0 15 30 45 60 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 % ©SURS Pričakovana skupna nabava / Expected orders desezonirani podatki - Slovenija seasonally adjusted data - Slovenia desezonirani podatki – EU seasonally adjusted data - EU 1) Vir podatkov je Evropska komisija (http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/indicators/businessandconsumersurveys_en.htm). Podatki o EU za zadnji mesec niso na voljo. Podatki so desezonirani. Source for EU data is European Commission (http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/indicators/businessandconsumersurveys_en.htm). Data for EU for the last month are not available. Data are seasonally adjusted. Statistične informacije, št. 123/2005 Rapid Reports No 123/2005 5 METODOLOŠKA POJASNILA METHODOLOGICAL EXPLANATIONS NAMEN STATISTIČNEGA RAZISKOVANJA PURPOSE OF THE STATISTICAL SURVEY Namen kvalitativne Ankete o poslovnih tendencah v trgovini na drobno (vprašalnik PA-TRG) je mesečno pridobivanje informacij o trenutnih stanjih glavnih ekonomskih kazalcev ter ocenitev njihovega gibanja v naslednjih mesecih. Rezultati anket so osnova za izračun kazalca zaupanja v trgovini na drobno in kazalca gospodarske klime, ki vključuje poleg kazalca zaupanja v trgovini na drobno tudi kazalec zaupanja pri potrošnikih in kazalec zaupanja v predelovalnih dejavnostih. The purpose of the qualitative Survey on Business Tendency (questionnaire PA-TRG) is to get monthly information about current situations of major economic indicators and to evaluate their movement in the following months. The results of the survey are the basis for evaluation of the confidence indicator in retail trade and latter on also for the sentiment indicator, which also includes the consumer confidence indicator and the confidence indicator in manufacturing. Panelno anketo o poslovnih tendencah v trgovini na drobno izvajamo v Sloveniji od januarja 1999 s poenotenim vprašalnikom, na podlagi poenotene metodologije in z enako periodiko, kakor jo izvajajo v državah članicah Evropske unije že več desetletij, kar omogoča neposredno primerljivost podatkov. The Panel Survey on Business Tendency in Retail Trade is being carried out in Slovenia since January 1999 with the harmonised questionnaire, methodology and periodicity, which have been used in EU Member States for several decades. Therefore, all data are directly comparable. ENOTA OPAZOVANJA OBSERVATION UNITS Opazujemo podjetja, ki so po Standardni klasifikaciji dejavnosti razvrščena v trgovino na drobno, in sicer v naslednja oddelka: − 50 - Prodaja, vzdrževanje in popravila motornih vozil; trgovina na drobno z motornimi gorivi, − 52 - Trgovina na drobno, razen z motornimi vozili; popravila izdelkov široke porabe. We are monitoring units that are registered in retail trade or sale of motor vehicles in the following divisions: − 50 - Sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles, retail sale of fuels − 52 - Retail trade, except of motor vehicles, repair of personal and household goods Vzorec podjetij je oblikovan na podlagi dveh meril: − razvrstitve trgovskega podjetja po SKD-ju in − velikosti trgovskega podjetja (prihodek, skladno z zakonom o gospodarskih družbah). They were selected into the panel by two criteria: − the classification of the enterprise according to the Standard Classification of Activities (SCA) and − the size of the enterprises (turnover in accordance with the Law on Business Companies). VIRI SOURCES Na vprašalnik PA - TRG odgovarjajo direktorji podjetij ali drugi vodilni delavci med 1. in 10. v mesecu. Respondents answering to the monthly PA-TRG questionnaire are managers of enterprises or other executives. They respond between the 1st and the 10th of the month. ZAJETJE COVERAGE V panelni vzorec smo zajeli vsa velika in srednje velika podjetja ter 32 % malih podjetij (ali 39 % prihodka malih podjetij), ki so razvrščena v dejavnost trgovine na drobno ali trgovine z motornimi vozili. Opisani panelni vzorec pokriva 43 % podjetij vzorčnega okvira ali 94 % prihodka v trgovini na drobno in trgovini z motornimi vozili. The panel includes all large and medium-sized enterprises and 32% of small enterprises (or 39% of their turnover), the principal activity of which is classified into retail trade and sale of motor vehicles. The panel covers 43% of enterprises of the studied population or 94% of turnover in retail trade and sale of motor vehicles. NAČIN ZBIRANJA PODATKOV METHOD OF DATA COLLECTION Anketo izvajamo mesečno po pošti. The survey is carried out monthly by mail. UTEŽEVANJE ODGOVOROV WEIGHTS FOR RESPONSES Odgovori so uteženi tako, da odražajo relativno pomembnost posameznega podjetja v vzorcu. Znotraj razredov SKD so odgovori uteženi s prihodkom. Responses to individual questions are weighted so that they reflect relative importance of an individual enterprise in the panel. Inside the SCA classes responses are weighted with the turnover. NEODGOVORI NON-RESPONSES Neodgovore vsak mesec obdelamo skladno s poenoteno metodologijo. Non-responses are processed every month in accordance with the harmonized methodology. DEFINICIJE IN POJASNILA DEFINITIONS AND EXPLANATIONS Ravnotežje je razlika med pozitivnimi in negativnimi odgovori, izraženimi v odstotkih. Ravnotežja prikazujejo gibanje opazovanih ekonomskih kazalcev (stanj in pričakovanj), ne pa dejanskih velikosti ekonomskih kazalcev. Grafikoni prikazujejo ravnotežja po posameznih vprašanjih. The balance is the difference between positive and negative answers, expressed in percent. The balance shows the movement of observed economic indicators (present situation and future expectations), and not the real size of economic indicators. The charts show the balance by individual questions. Statistične informacije, št. 123/2005 6 Rapid Reports No 123/2005 Grafi prikazujejo desezonirane vrednosti. To so vrednosti, pri katerih je izločen vpliv sezonskih dejavnikov, vsebujejo pa trend - cikel in naključno komponento. Podatki za EU so desezonirani z metodo DAINTIES, za Slovenijo pa z metodo TRAMO/SEATS, ki temelji na ARIMA modelih. Data in the charts are seasonally adjusted. Values are adjusted for the seasonal component and include the trend-cycle component and the irregular component. Data for the EU are seasonally adjusted by the DAINTIES method and for Slovenia by the TRAMO/SEATS method, which is based on ARIMA models. Pri oblikovanju modelov smo upoštevali obdobje od januarja 1999 do januarja 2005. Pri pričakovanem povpraševanju se model za leto 2005 zaradi narave podatkov razlikuje od modela za leto 2004. Pri sedanjem poslovnem položaju, obsegu zalog, pričakovanem zaposlovanju, prodajnih cenah, pričakovanih prodajnih cenah, ravni prodaje in gibanju prodaje za to obdobje leta sezonska komponenta ni prisotna. The designing of the models is based on the time period from January 1999 to January 2005. Due to the nature of the data, the 2005 model differs from the 2004 model as regards expected demand. Present business situation, volume of stocks, expected employment, selling prices, selling prices expectations, level of sales and evolution of sales for this period of year have no seasonal component. Kazalec zaupanja je povprečje odgovorov (ravnotežij) na vprašanja o sedanjem in pričakovanem poslovnem položaju ter sedanjem obsegu zalog (obrnjen predznak). The confidence indicator shows an average of responses (balances) to questions on present and expected business situation and present volume of stocks (the latter with inverted sign). OBJAVLJANJE REZULTATOV PUBLISHING Sodelujoči v anketi prejmejo informacijo o dejavnosti, v katero so uvrščeni. Participants in the survey get the information on the activity of their enterprises. Drugim uporabnikom so ti podatki dostopni na ravni trgovine na drobno in po velikostnih razredih podjetij. Objavljamo jih mesečno v Statističnih informacijah in podatkovni bazi SI-STAT (http://www.stat.si). Other users can get data for retail trade and data for large, medium-sized and small enterprises published monthly in Rapid Reports and in the SI- STAT database (http://www.stat.si/eng). VPRAŠANJA: QUESTIONS: − Ocene stanj: • Ocena poslovnega položaja v zadnjih 3 mesecih: dober, zadovoljiv - normalen glede na sezono, slab? • Prodajne cene so v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem: višje, enake, nižje? • Ocena finančnega položaja v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem: boljši, enak, slabši? • Ocena obsega zalog: premajhne, ustrezne - normalne glede na sezono, prevelike? • Ocena prodaje glede na isti mesec lanskega leta: na višji ravni, na isti ravni, na nižji ravni? − Appreciation of situation: • Assessment of the present business situation over the past 3 months: good, satisfactory (normal for the season), bad? • Selling prices compared to the last month: up, unchanged, down? • Assessment of financial situation compared to the last month: better, same, worse? • Assessment of volume of stocks: too small, adequate (normal for the season), too large? • Assessment of sales compared to the same month of the previous year: at a higher level, unchanged, at a lower level? − Pričakovanja v naslednjih mesecih: • Pričakovani poslovni položaj čez 6 mesecev: boljši, enak, slabši? • Pričakovane prodajne cene v naslednjih 3 mesecih: višje, enake, nižje? • Pričakovano zaposlovanje v naslednjih 3 mesecih: povečalo, ostalo enako, zmanjšalo? • Pričakovani obseg skupne nabave (tuji in domači dobavitelji) v naslednjih 3 mesecih: večji, enak, manjši? • Pričakovano povpraševanje v naslednjih 3 mesecih: povečalo, ostalo enako, zmanjšalo? − Expectation in the next months: • Expected business situation 6 months ahead: better, same, worse? • Selling price expectations for the next 3 months: up, unchanged, down? • Employment expectations for the next 3 months: up, unchanged, down? • Expectations on orders to place with total suppliers (domestic and foreign) in the next 3 months: up, unchanged, down? • Expected demand for the next 3 months: up, unchanged, down? • Ocena konkurence na vašem področju glede na pretekli mesec: večja, enaka, manjša? • Ocena gibanja prodaje za to obdobje leta: dobro, zadovoljivo, slabo? • Dejavniki, ki ovirajo izboljšanje sedanjega položaja: ni omejitev, nizko povpraševanje, slaba ponudba, visoki stroški dela, visoka cena denarja, težka dostopnost do bančnih posojil, premajhna prodajna površina, premajhni skladiščni prostori, konkurenca v sektorju, ostalo? • Pričakovani obseg nabave pri domačih dobaviteljih v naslednjih 3 mesecih: večji, enak, manjši, nimamo domačih dobaviteljev? • Pričakovani obseg nabave pri tujih dobaviteljih v naslednjih 3 mesecih: večji, enak, manjši, nimamo tujih dobaviteljev? • Assessment of competition in own sector compared to the last month: up, unchanged, down? • Assessment of sales for this period of year: good, satisfactory, bad? • Factors limiting the improvement of the present business situation: none, low demand, bad supply, high labour costs , high costs of finance, problems with access to bank credits, small sales surface, small storage capacity, competition in own sector, other? • Expectations on orders to place with domestic suppliers in the next 3 months: up, unchanged, down, no domestic suppliers? • Expectations on orders to place with foreign suppliers in the next 3 months: up, unchanged, down, no foreign suppliers? Statistične informacije, št. 123/2005 Rapid Reports No 123/2005 7 KOMENTAR COMMENT V aprilu 2005 se je desezonirana vrednost kazalca zaupanja v trgovini na drobno glede na pretekli mesec dvignila za 4 odstotne točke. Na dvig vrednosti kazalca zaupanja sta vplivali boljši oceni sedanjega in pričakovanega poslovnega položaja ter ocena o zmanjšanem obsegu zalog. Vrednost kazalca se je dvignila tudi v primerjavi z lanskim aprilom in v primerjavi z lanskim povprečjem, in sicer za 2 odstotni točki oziroma 1 odstotno točko. In April 2005 the seasonally adjusted retail trade confidence indicator showed an increase compared to the previous month, i.e. by 4 percentage points. This rise was due to the improvement in the assessment of the present and expected business situation as well as by the assessment of the lower volume of stocks. The indicator also went up compared to April 2004 and to last year's average, i.e. by 2 percentage points and 1 percentage point, respectively. OCENA STANJ APPRECIATION OF SITUATION POSLOVNI POLOŽAJ BUSINESS SITUATION V aprilu 2005 se je kazalec poslovni položaj dvignil za 9 odstotnih točk v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lanskega leta in v primerjavi z lanskim povprečjem pa je padel za 5 odstotnih točk oziroma 3 odstotne točke. In April 2005 the business situation indicator increased by 9 percentage points compared to the previous month. However, it went down in comparison with April 2004 and last year’s average, i.e. by 5 and 3 percentage points, respectively. PRODAJNE CENE SELLING PRICES Vrednost kazalca prodajne cene se je v mesečni primerjavi znižala za 6 odstotnih točk. Padec vrednosti za 4 odstotne točke je bil zabeležen v primerjavi z istim mesecem lanskega leta, medtem ko se je le-ta v primerjavi z lanskim povprečjem dvignila za 4 odstotne točke. In a month-to-month comparison the indicator of the selling prices went down by 6 percentage points. A fall of the indicator by 4 percentage points was recorded in comparison with April 2004, while it went up in comparison with last year’s average by 4 percentage points. FINANČNI POLOŽAJ FINANCIAL SITUATION Desezonirana vrednost kazalca finančni položaj je bila v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem višja za 3 odstotne točke. V primerjavi z aprilom 2004 je vrednost padla za 3 odstotne točke in se ni spremenila glede na lanskoletno povprečje. The seasonally adjusted indicator of the financial situation rose by 3 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to April 2004 it fell by 3 percentage points and it remained unchanged compared to last year’s average. OBSEG ZALOG VOLUME OF STOCKS Obseg zalog se je v vseh treh primerjavah zmanjšal. V primerjavi s preteklim mesecem se je zmanjšal za 3 odstotne točke, v primerjavi z istim mesecem lani za 2 odstotni točki in v primerjavi z lanskim povprečjem za 7 odstotnih točk. The volume of stocks decreased in all three comparisons. Compared to the previous month it went down by 3 percentage points, compared to April 2004 by 2 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 7 percentage points. RAVEN PRODAJE LEVEL OF SALES Vrednost kazalca raven prodaje se je dvignila v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem za 23 odstotnih točk. V primerjavi z aprilom 2004 je bila vrednost višja za 9 odstotnih točk in v primerjavi z lanskim povprečjem za 5 odstotnih točk. The indicator of the level of sales rocketed compared to the previous month by 23 percentage points. Compared to April 2004 it rose by 9 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 5 percentage points. PRIČAKOVANJA EXPECTATIONS PRIČAKOVANI POSLOVNI POLOŽAJ EXPECTED BUSINESS SITUATION V splošnem se je desezonirana vrednost kazalca pričakovani poslovni položaj dvignila. V primerjavi z marcem 2005 se je dvignila za 8 odstotnih točk, v primerjavi z aprilom 2004 za 10 odstotnih točk in v primerjavi z lanskim povprečjem za 6 odstotnih točk. The seasonally adjusted indicator of the expected business situation showed an overall increase. Compared to March 2005 it increased by 8 percentage points, compared to April 2004 by 10 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 6 percentage points. PRIČAKOVANE PRODAJNE CENE SELLING PRICES EXPECTATIONS Vrednost kazalca pričakovane prodajne cene se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem poslabšala za 12 odstotnih točk. V primerjavi z aprilom 2004 je vrednost padla za 4 odstotne točke in bila 10 odstotnih točk nad lanskim povprečjem. The selling prices expectations indicator markedly worsened compared to the previous month as its value dropped by 12 percentage points. In comparison with April 2004 it fell by 4 percentage points and it was 10 percentage points above last year’s average. Statistične informacije, št. 123/2005 8 Rapid Reports No 123/2005 PRIČAKOVANO ZAPOSLOVANJE EXPECTED EMPLOYMENT V aprilu 2005 se je vrednost kazalca pričakovano zaposlovanje dvignila za 12 odstotnih točk. V primerjavi z aprilom 2004 je bila vrednost višja za 2 odstotni točki in 1 odstotno točko pod lanskim povprečjem. In April 2005 the indicator of the expected employment went up by 12 percentage points. In comparison with April 2004 it rose by 2 percentage points and it was 1 percentage point below last year’s average. PRIČAKOVANA SKUPNA NABAVA EXPECTED ORDERS V primerjavi z marcem 2005 je bila desezonirana vrednost kazalca pričakovana skupna nabava višja za 7 odstotnih točk. V primerjavi z aprilom 2004 je bila vrednost višja za 3 odstotne točke, v primerjavi z lanskim povprečjem pa se je znižala za 1 odstotno točko. In comparison with March 2005 the seasonally adjusted indicator of the expected orders increased by 7 percentage points. Compared to April 2004 it went up by 3 percentage points and compared to last year’s average it slid by 1 percentage point. PRIČAKOVANO POVPRAŠEVANJE EXPECTED DEMAND V aprilu 2005 je bilo zabeleženo poslabšanje desezonirane vrednosti kazalca pričakovano povpraševanje, in sicer za 2 odstotni točki. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani je bila njegova vrednost višja za 7 odstotnih točk in je ostala enaka v primerjavi z lanskim povprečjem. In April 2005 a fall of the seasonally adjusted indicator of the expected demand was recorded, i.e. by 2 percentage points. In comparison with April 2004 it rose by 7 percentage points and it remained the same in comparison with last year’s average. KONKURENČNOST COMPETITION Desezonirana vrednost kazalca konkurenčnost se je rahlo dvignila (za 1 odstotno točko) v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani in z lanskim povprečjem je njegova vrednost padla, in sicer za 4 odstotne točke oziroma 5 odstotnih točk. The seasonally adjusted indicator of the competition went up slightly (by 1 percentage point) compared to the previous month. Compared to April 2004 and to last year’s average its value fell, i.e. by 4 and 5 percentage points, respectively. GIBANJE PRODAJE ZA TO OBDOBJE LETA EVOLUTION OF SALES FOR THIS PERIOD OF YEAR Vrednost kazalca gibanje prodaje za to obdobje leta je bila višja (za 12 odstotnih točk) v primerjavi z marcem 2005. Po drugi strani, se je njegova vrednost opazno znižala (za 11 odstotnih točk) v primerjavi z istim mesecem lanskega leta in padla za 4 odstotne točke glede na lansko povprečje. The value of the evolution of sales indicator rose significantly (by 12 percentage points) compared to March 2005. On the other hand, it noticeably worsened (by 11 percentage points) compared to the same month previous year and it fell by 4 percentage points in comparison with last year’s average. OMEJITVENI DEJAVNIKI V TRGOVINI NA DROBNO OBSTACLES IN RETAIL TRADE V trgovini na drobno se je 36 % podjetij (oz. 26 % prihodka) srečevalo z dejavniki iz skupine "hude omejitve". Delež teh podjetij se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem in tudi v primerjavi z istim mesecem lanskega leta dvignil za 1 odstotno točko oziroma 3 odstotne točke. In retail trade 36% of enterprises (26% of turnover) were faced with “severe obstacles” in trading. Compared to the previous month and to the same month of the last year the share of these enterprises rose, i.e. by 1 and 3 percentage points, respectively. Podjetij, ki so se srečevala s skupino dejavnikov "težave s ponudbo", je bilo 28 % (oz. 22 % prihodka). Delež teh podjetij je bil enak kot v preteklem mesecu, medtem ko je glede na isti mesec lanskega leta padel za 4 odstotne točke. The share of enterprises faced with “supply difficulties” was 28% (22% of turnover). This share was the same as in the previous month while it fell by 4 percentage points compared to April 2004. Podjetij, ki so se srečevala s skupino dejavnikov "težave s povpraševanjem", je bilo 26 % (oz. 34 % prihodka), kar je bilo za 1 odstotno točko manj kot v preteklem mesecu in za 1 odstotno točko več kot v lanskem aprilu. The share of enterprises faced with “demand difficulties” was 26% (34% of turnover), which was 1 percentage point less than in the previous month and 1 percentage point more than in April 2004. Podjetij, ki niso imela omejitev v poslovanju, je bilo 10 % (oz. 18 % prihodka). Delež teh podjetij je ostal enak tako glede na pretekli mesec kot tudi glede na april 2004. Only 10% of enterprises (18% of turnover) experienced no obstacles. The share of these enterprises remained the same as in the previous month and in April 2004. Podrobnejši pregled omejitvenih dejavnikov v trgovini na drobno1): − 47 % podjetij (ali 52 % prihodka) je omejevala konkurenca v sektorju, − 39 % podjetij (ali 35 % prihodka) so omejevali visoki stroški dela, − 32 % podjetij (ali 29 % prihodka) je omejevalo nezadostno povpraševanje, − 21 % podjetij (ali 24 % prihodka) je omejevala visoka cena denarja, A more detailed overview of obstacles in retail trade1) shows that: − 47% of enterprises (or 52% of turnover) were limited by competition in own sector, − 39% of enterprises (or 35% of turnover) were limited by high cost of labour, − 32% of enterprises (or 29% of turnover) were limited by insufficient demand, − 21% of enterprises (or 24% of turnover) were limited by high cost of money, 1) Podjetja lahko označijo več dejavnikov, ki omejujejo njihovo poslovanje, zato vsota odstotkov ni 100. Enterprises can select several obstacles to their business, so the total is not 100%. Statistične informacije, št. 123/2005 Rapid Reports No 123/2005 9 − 14 % podjetij (ali 7 % prihodka) je omejevala premajhna prodajna površina, − 12 % podjetij (ali 8 % prihodka) je omejevala dostopnost do bančnih posojil, − 12 % podjetij (ali 4 % prihodka) so omejevali drugi dejavniki, kot so finančna nedisciplina, visoke najemnine, slaba lokacija itd., − 11 % podjetij (ali 18 % prihodka) ni imelo omejitev v poslovanju, − 7 % podjetij (ali 4 % prihodka) so omejevali premajhni skladiščni prostori, − 3 % podjetij (ali 1 % prihodka) je omejevala slaba ponudba. − 14% of enterprises (or 7% of turnover) were limited by shortage of sales surface, − 12% of enterprises (or 8% of turnover) were limited by access to bank credits, − 12% of enterprises (or 4% of turnover) were limited by other factors such as lack of financial discipline, high rents, bad location, etc., − 11% of enterprises (or 18% of turnover) experienced no obstacles, − 7% of enterprises (or 4% of turnover) were limited by small storage capacity, − 3% of enterprises (or 1% of turnover) were limited by supply shortage. Statistično raziskovanje je sofinancirala Evropska komisija. Za objavljene podatke in besedila je odgovoren izključno Statistični urad Republike Slovenije in ne Evropska komisija. The business survey is co-financed by the European Commission. However, the European Commission accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever with regard to the material published in this document. Sestavila / Prepared by: Darja Regoršek Izdaja, založba in tisk Statistični urad Republike Slovenije, Ljubljana, Vožarski pot 12 - Uporaba in objava podatkov dovoljena le z navedbo vira - Odgovarja generalna direktorica mag. Irena Križman - Urednica zbirke Statistične informacije Marina Urbas – Urednica podzbirke Darja Regoršek - Slovensko besedilo jezikovno uredila Joža Lakovič - Angleško besedilo jezikovno uredil Boris Panič - Naklada 105 izvodov - ISSN zbirke Statistične informacije 1408-192X - ISSN podzbirke Trgovina in druge storitvene dejavnosti 1408-9327 - Informacije daje Informacijsko središče, tel.: (01) 241 51 04 - El. pošta: info.stat@gov.si - http://www.stat.si. Edited, published and printed by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, Ljubljana, Vožarski pot 12 - These data can be used provided the source is acknowledged - Director-General Irena Križman - Rapid Reports editor Marina Urbas – Subject-matter editor Darja Regoršek -Slovene language editor Joža Lakovič - English language editor Boris Panič - Total print run 105 copies - ISSN of Rapid Reports 1408-192X - ISSN of subcollection Distributive trade and other service activities 1408-9327 - Information is given by the Information Centre of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, tel.: +386 1 241 51 04 - E-mail: info.stat@gov.si - http://www.stat.si.