.^'IMAD O fü Q) £ u E o > o fN O Ü) o u 0) s (V _Q E cu u Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3826 No. 12 / Vol. XVII / 2011 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Director: Boštjan Vasle, MSc Editor in Chief: Jure Brložnik, MA Slovenian Economic Mirror was prepared by: Matevž Hribernik, (International environment); Barbara Ferk, MSc, Janez Kušar, Jože Markič, PhD, Tina Nenadič, MSc, Jure Povšnar, Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič, Ana Vidrih, MSc, (Economic developments in Slovenia); Mojca Lindič, MSc, Ana T. Selan, MSc (Labour market); Slavica Jurančič, Ivo Lavrač, PhD, Miha Trošt (Prices); Jože Markič, PhD (Balance of payments); Marjan Hafner (Financial markets); Jasna Kondža, Dragica Šuc, MSc (Public finance); Urška Lušina, MSc (time series seasonal adjustment) Editorial Board: Lidija Apohal Vučkovič, Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Lejla Fajič, Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, Boštjan Vasle, MSc Translator: Marija Kavčič Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Bibijana Cirman Naglič Print: Circulation: 90 copies © The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the spotlight................................................................................................................................................................3 Current economic trends..............................................................................................................................................5 International environment...............................................................................................................................................7 Economic activity in Slovenia..........................................................................................................................................9 Labour market..................................................................................................................................................................13 Prices..................................................................................................................................................................................15 Balance of payments.......................................................................................................................................................17 Financial markets.............................................................................................................................................................19 Public finance....................................................................................................................................................................21 Boxes Box 1: Changes to the Stability and Growth Pact and draft EU fiscal compact......................................................8 Box 2: Comparison of the movements of residential property prices in Europe................................................17 Statistical appendix.....................................................................................................................................................25 On January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev.2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia, the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, which includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses, came into force on the mentioned date. In the Slovenian Economic Mirror, all analyses are based on the SKD 2008, except when the previous SKD 2002 classification is explicitly referred to. More general information about the introduction of the new classification is available on the SORS website http://www.stat.si/eng/ skd nace 2008.asp. All seasonally adjusted data in the Economic Mirror are calculations by IMAD. In the spotlight The forecasts for 2012 economic growth in Slovenia's main trading partners continued to decline in December. In December, the ECB revised downwards its forecast for economic growth in 2012 to the interval between -0.4% and 1.0%. The Consensus forecasts were scaled back as well. In the period between August (when IMAD's Autumn Forecast was prepared) and December, the Consensus forecast for euro area economic growth in 2012 was cut from 1.5% to -0.1%. The tensions on government bond markets have intensified further in recent months. A decline in activity is also indicated by current data on economic activity and confidence indicators. To ease the situation, European leaders agreed on a Fiscal Pact in December, which is to be signed as an international agreement between EU Member States presumably in March. Along with the enforced Stability and Growth Pact reform, the Fiscal Pact is aimed at strengthening fiscal policy coordination and enhancing the credibility of EU Member States in managing public finances. In December, the ECB also took a more proactive approach to resolving the crisis. In addition to cutting its key interest rate further, it introduced additional non-standard measures to increase bank liquidity. In a longer-term refinancing operation, it granted EUR 489 bn in loans to 523 banks for a period of three years. Low economic activity continued in Slovenia at the beginning of the last quarter of 2011. Growth in real merchandise exports slowed at the end of the third and the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2011, according to our estimate. The real volume of manufacturing output, having started to decline mid-2011, contracted once again in October, mainly owing to medium-low-technology industries, which mainly produce intermediate products and tend to be the first to respond to lower demand, according to our estimate. October recorded a substantial decline in the value of construction put in place, and that in all construction sectors, with activity hitting the lowest level in the period of the crisis. Since the beginning of the latter half of the year, real turnover in retail trade has been growing only on the back of the sale of automotive fuels. The economic sentiment indicator shows that economic activity will also be low in the period ahead. The labour market situation deteriorated further in the last months of 2011; the modest growth of the average gross wage continued to reflect wage growth in the private sector. The number of employed persons excluding self-employed farmers has been declining ever since October2008, according to seasonally adjusted data. It dropped 7.4%, or over 60 thousand persons, in the three years to October 2011. Registered unemployment was up in November and December, seasonally adjusted. At the end of 2011, the number of registered unemployed persons climbed to 112.754, which is the highest figure in the period of the crisis and 50 thousand persons more than at the beginning of the crisis in October 2008. The average gross wage per employee continued to increase modestly in October, which was, given the stagnation in the public sector as a result of austerity measures, still due to growth in the private sector. October's wage growth in the private sector was a result of increased payments for overtime work and extraordinary year-end payments, which usually start to be disbursed that month. In 2011, inflation stood at 2.0%, which is a similar level as in previous three years. In 2011, price rises in Slovenia and the entire euro area (where inflation was at 2.8%) were impacted by weak economic activity and oil and food price growth at the beginning of the year. Higher energy and food prices thus contributed 0.9 p.p. each to Slovenia's inflation in 2011, while in contrast to previous years, the net effect of changes in taxation was modest, around 0.1 p.p. Lower price growth in Slovenia than in the euro area was largely a result of weaker economic activity. Lending activity declined at a somewhat slower pace in October and November, but financing conditions of banks tightened further. After a modest net flow of loans in October, the lending activity of domestic banks stagnated in November. The volume of domestic bank loans to domestic non-banking sectors shrank by nearly EUR 230 m in the first eleven months of 2011, while the same period of 2010 it had still seen net inflows of EUR 1.1 bn. Corporate and NFI borrowing abroad is slowing and loan maturities are shortening, which could also reflect deteriorated perceptions about Slovenia's creditworthiness on financial markets. In October, banks continued to make net repayments of foreign loans, which amounted to EUR 1.4 bn in the first ten months as a whole, being a tenth higher than in the same period of the year before. The quality of banks' assets deteriorated further, with the volume of bad claims already accounting for over one tenth of total claims at the end of October. Banks thus intensified the creation of impairments and provisions to EUR 780 m by the end of November. However, given a further deterioration of the quality of banks' assets, we estimate that banks were insufficiently restrictive in creating impairments and provisions, as at the end of October, the volume of total impairments and provisions would have covered only the volume of non-performing, i.e. D- and E-rated, claims. In the first nine months of 2011, general government revenue recorded higher y-o-y growth than general government expenditure, so that the deficit was smaller than in the same period of the preceding year. The higher y-o-y revenue growth in the first nine months was mainly due to a large increase in revenue from corporate income tax at the beginning of the year as a result of high payments in arrears, while other main revenues recorded modest growth. Owing to higher indebtedness and unfavourable labour market conditions, the expenditure side saw a continuation of high y-o-y growth in expenditure on interest and transfers to individuals and households. In the first nine months the deficit of the consolidated balance of public finances totalled EUR 1,337 m, which is less than in the same period of the preceding year (EUR 1,669 m). ■ö £ Q) E o £ O u Q) £ Q) 3 U International environment In December, international institutions continued to revise downwards their forecasts for economic growth. The ECB forecast for 2012 economic growth in the euro area deteriorated significantly in comparison with September's interval of 0.4% to 2.2% and totalled between -0.4% and 1.0% in December. The forecast was revised for similar reasons as with other institutions, i.e. deteriorated financing conditions, mainly as a result of uncertainties on financial markets due to the sovereign debt crisis, coupled with lower expectations regarding domestic and foreign demand. The Consensus forecasts were also scaled back again in December, projecting a contraction of economic activity for 2012 (-0.1%). Economic growth in Germany and France is expected to be very low (0.5% and 0.1%, respectively), while Italy's GDP will decline. The Consensus forecasts for economic growth in Slovenia's main trading partners in Eastern and SouthEastern Europe, which account for more than a quarter of Slovenia's exports, have also been cut significantly in recent months. The deterioration of forecasts is borne out by the current data on industrial production, new orders and activity in the construction sector and services, as well as confidence indicators, most of which still indicate a decline in activity. Figure 1: Lowering of the Consensus forecast for GDP growth in 2012 -EMU -Germany - France -Italy that have started until mid-2013. The introduction of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) was accelerated by one year, to enter into force in July 2012, and the EU Member States are to ensure its lending capacity of EUR 500 bn. To deal with the crisis, the Member States will provide additional resources for the IMF of up to EUR 200 bn, in the form of bilateral loans. Despite the agreement, financial market tensions continued, as did the credit rating downgrades of individual countries in the euro area. In December, the ECB stepped in and became more proactive in resolving the crisis. In addition to cutting its key interest rate on the main refinancing operations by a further 0.25 p.p. to 1.0%, it introduced additional nonstandard measures to increase bank liquidity. At the end of December, it conducted the first of the two longer-term refinancing operations with a maturity of three years. Funds were available in an unlimited amount, and 523 banks borrowed EUR 489 bn at an interest rate of 1.0%. The ECB also continued with the Securities Markets Programme and purchased EUR 7.6 bn in government bonds in December (a total of EUR 211 bn since the beginning of the Programme in May 2010). Figure 2: 10-year government bond yield spread vis-avis German bonds |E IÜ C y ^ C y ^^ un C^ ^^ un C^ Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Source: Consensus Forecasts. The situation on general government bond markets remained tight in December and the ECB took a more proactive approach to resolving the crisis. At December's meeting of the European Council, the Member States agreed to step up measures to address the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area and strengthen the coordination of economic and fiscal policies. The temporary European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), which has already provided financial assistance to Greece, Ireland and Portugal, will remain active in financing programmes December saw further cuts in interbank interest rates in the euro area. The three-month EURIBOR declined by an average of 5 b.p. to 1.43% in December, being up 41 b.p. y-o-y. The main reason for the fall in interbank interest rates is the new cut in the key ECB interest rate. The three-month USD LIBOR rose (by 8 b.p. to 0.55%), while the CHF LIBOR remained at the level of November (0.05%). In December, the euro depreciated once again against most of the main global currencies. The euro lost value relative to the US dollar for the fourth month in a row, by 2.8% to USD 1.32 per one euro, dropping to the level recorded in the previous December. The euro also declined relative to 2.5 Box 1: Changes to the Stability and Growth Pact and draft EU fiscal compact In December a new legislative package entered into force, which brings significant changes to the Stability and Growth Pact (hereinafter the Pact).1 The new rules complement the European semester and are aimed at enhancing fiscal discipline and reinforcing the surveillance of national macroeconomic policies. To strengthen fiscal discipline, the new legislation places greater emphasis on the level of public debt and the sustainability of public finances. The countries violating the rules of the Pact and failing to adopt appropriate measures according to recommendations will be subject to financial sanctions proposed by the European Commission, unless the proposed sanctions are turned down by a qualified majority of the Council of Ministers.2 A Member State will be subject to the excessive deficit procedure if it exceeds the reference value for public debt (60% of GDP) and fails to reduce public debt appropriately in a period of three years.3 To promote attainment by the Member States of their medium-term budgetary objectives (MTOs), the reform introduces an expenditure ceiling determined according to the potential growth of the Member State concerned. The new mechanism is meant to improve budgetary planning and correct imbalances in Member States' budgets. Another important feature of the new legislative package and reformed economic governance of the EU is the emphasis on early detection and correction of excessive imbalances, particularly within the euro area. The new regulations introduce a new surveillance mechanism which enables timely recognition and, if necessary, correction, of macroeconomic imbalances or a loss of competitiveness. At its meeting in December, the European Council agreed on a draft fiscal compact to complement December's changes to the Pact. The compact includes four main measures, but the timetable of their enforcement (and possible transition periods) has yet to be defined. The fiscal compact will presumably be concluded in March 2012 as an international agreement between EU Member States that will accede to it. It will enter into force only after it has been ratified in Member States' national parliaments. The EU Member States that will sign the agreement shall have balanced national budgets or a budgetary surplus. This principle will be deemed respected if a country's annual structural deficit does not exceed 0.5% of nominal GDP, or else an automatic corrective mechanism will be set off. This rule is also to be introduced in Member States' national legal systems at constitutional or equivalent level. Member States shall converge towards their specific reference levels in the area of public finances according to a timetable proposed by the Commission. Moreover, the Member States in Excessive Deficit Procedure will have to submit to the Commission and the Council for endorsement, their structural reform plans for the elimination of excessive deficits. The rules of the Pact will be additionally reinforced for the euro area Member States. As soon as a Member State is in breach of the ceiling (3% of GDP), there shall be automatic consequences unless decided otherwise by a qualified majority of the Council. The new provisions for automatic sanctions will also include the specification of a numerical benchmark for debt reduction for Member States with a government debt in excess of 60%. In the context of stronger surveillance, euro area Member States will have to submit to the Commission their draft budgetary plans. The Commission will thus be able to request certain revisions and corrections of budgetary plans even before their formal adoption. Moreover, Member States will also have to report on their plans for issuing national debt securities (bonds). 1 A package of six legislative proposals on economic governance became effective on 13 December 2011. 2 The number of a Member State's votes is related to the size of its population. A qualified majority is defined as at least 255 out of 345 Member States' votes, which come from at least 14 Member States. 3 In a period of three years, the average annual reduction should amount to 1/20 of the gap between the actual public debt level and the reference value of 60% of GDP. Currently, 23 EU Member States (14 of which are euro area members) are already in the excessive deficit procedure and these countries are granted a three-year transition period for meeting the rule. the Japanese yen (by 2.4%, to JPY 102.55 to EUR 1), the British pound sterling (by 1.6%, to GDP 0.845 to EUR 1) and the Swiss franc (by 0.3%, to CHF 1.23 to EUR 1). In 2011, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar averaged USD 1.39 to EUR 1. The euro thus gained 5.0% against the US dollar in 2011. In the year as a whole, the value of the euro dropped most notably relative to the Swiss franc (by 10.7%) and the Japanese yen (by 4.5%). Commodity prices in dollars dropped once again in December. The price of Brent oil fell by 2.5% to USD 107.98 a barrel in December (expressed in EUR, it was up 0.2% to EUR 81.77 a barrel). The average oil price in 2011 exceeded the record values of 2008 and totalled USD 111.3 a barrel (up 39.8% from 2010). Expressed in EUR, it was EUR 79.9 (up 33.0%). Having soared particularly in the first three months of the year, oil prices have been stable since April, albeit high. Non-energy commodity prices continued to drop in December, according to preliminary data. According to the most recent IMF figures, prices dwindled by 2.5% in November (down 5.6% y-o-y). The main contribution to the monthly decline came from lower prices of industrial commodities, largely metals (-3.8%), while food prices remained at roughly the same level as in the previous month. Figure 3: Interest rate on the main refinancing operations and interbank interest rates Key ECB interest rate -3-month EURIBOR _ 5 Assumption for 3-month EURIBOR (ECB Dec. 11) 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Ji Ji Source: ECB,www.euribor.org. Figure 4: Prices of Brent crude oil and the USD/EUR exchange rate -Price in EUR (left axis) -----Price in USD (left axis) -- Exchange rate of USD to EUR (right axis) ^ ^ g C^ C^ C^ C^ C3 C3 Source: ECB, EIA; calculations by IMAD. Economic developments in Slovenia Low economic activity continued in Slovenia at the beginning of the last quarter of 2011. According to our estimate, growth in real merchandise exports slowed at the end of the third and the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2011. The real volume of manufacturing output has been shrinking since the beginning of the second half of 2011, largely on account of medium-low-technology industries, which mainly produce intermediate products and tend to be the first to respond to lower demand, according to our estimate. October recorded a substantial decline in the value of construction put in place, in all construction segments, with activity hitting the lowest level in the period of the crisis. Since the middle of the year, real turnover in retail trade has been growing only on the back of the sale of automotive fuels. Nominal data show that turnover in wholesale trade has been increasing since the middle, and turnover in service activities since the beginning of 2011. Figure 5: Short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia -Merchandise exports ra 110 90 - industrial production in manufacturing ■ Value of construction put in place Turnover in trade 80 60 50 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Merchandise exports1 remain the key engine of Slovenia's economic activity, despite signs of slowing growth. Real seasonally adjusted export growth moderated in the second and third quarters of 2011 after the acceleration in the first. At the end of the third and the beginning of the last quarter of the year, the growth of seasonally adjusted real merchandise exports eased further, according to our estimate.2 The y-o-y rate of real growth was lower as well, totalling a mere 2.1% in October, according to our estimate. By the end of 2011, growth had decelerated further, which we estimate was due to growing tensions in Slovenia's main trading partners in the euro area. Against the background of subdued domestic demand and slower export growth, the growth of merchandise imports3 is slowing as well. We estimate that real merchandise imports4 (seasonally adjusted), which had fluctuated more than exports in 2011, mainly stagnated from the beginning of the 2nd quarter and until October. The available data on nominal imports according to SITC sections indicate that imports of the largest component 1 According to the external trade statistics. 2 The estimate of real exports is based on nominal exports according to the external trade statistics and industrial producer prices on the foreign market. 3 According to the external trade statistics. 4 The estimate of real imports is based on nominal imports according to the external trade statistics and industrial producer prices on the foreign market. 70 40 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 in the group of intermediate products, goods for production, declined in the third quarter relative to the second. We estimate that this is primarily a result of the contraction of manufacturing output, which is also linked to the moderation of export growth. Imports of consumer and investment goods maintained the achieved level in the third quarter as well and continue to reflect weak domestic demand. Figures 6 : Estimate of real merchandise exports and imports 105 100 95 80 75 70 Merchandise exports Merchandise imports Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. October saw further growth in exports of services, while imports declined. Exports of services were up once again in October, seasonally adjusted, by 2.2%. They grew 9.3% y-o-y, again mainly on the back of travel services, as well as communication services. On the other hand, imports of services decreased in October (-1.6%, seasonally adjusted) and were, for the first time in a long period, lower than Figure 7: Trade in services -Exports of services -Imports of services in the same month of the previous year (-2.1%). The y-o-y decline was mainly attributable to lower imports of maritime and road transport services, and imports of licences, patents and copyrights. Imports of construction services also continue to fall y-o-y. In the first ten months of 2011, exports of services increased by 8.3% and imports by 2.7% in nominal terms relative to the same period of the year before. Table 1: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia in % 2010 X 11/ IX 11 X 11/ X 10 I-X 11/ I-X 10 Exports1 12.2 -7.1 7.2 12.4 -goods 13.7 -6.6 6.7 13.5 -services 6.6 -9.1 9.3 8.3 Imports1 14.3 -9.5 0.9 11.8 -goods 16.1 -8.9 1.3 13.3 -services 4.5 -13.8 -2.1 2.7 Industrial production 6.2 -2.62 1.03 4.03 -manufacturing 6.6 -3.02 0.83 4.23 Construction -value of construction put in place -16.9 -14.12 -25.33 -27.23 Real turnover in retail trade -0.2 1.22 2.23 2.03 Nominal turnover market services (without distributive trades) 6.3 1.02 6.53 5.33 Sources: BS, Eurostat, SORS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1balance of payments statistics, ^seasonally adjusted, 3working-day adjusted data. The volume of manufacturing production has been shrinking since mid-2011. Following a decline in Q3, production volume contracted once more in October (-3.0%, seasonally adjusted). The decline was again attributable to medium-low-technology industries, which primarily produce intermediate goods5 and tend to be the first to respond to a decline in demand, according to our estimate. After a substantial drop at the beginning of 2011 and an additional decline in the second half of the year, October's production in medium-low-technology industries was at the level recorded in the first half of 2010. Production in medium-high- and high-technology industries, which stagnated most of the year 2011, rose modestly in September and October, largely on account of the manufacture of electrical appliances and motor vehicles.6 October recorded further production growth in the least technology-intensive industries. Manufacturing production, which had still been up 6.4% y-o-y in the first half of the year (working-day adjusted), was only 0.9% higher in the second half of the year up to and including October. Manufacturing industries face bleak prospects at the beginning of 2012. Business expectations about demand worsened again in December. In the third quarter, business expectations deteriorated particularly with regard to exports, while in the last quarter of 2011, the more ^^ 5 With the exception of the repair and installation of machinery and equipment and a small part of the metal industry. 6 This is IMAD's estimate, as production data are original. 90 i;^ 85 Figure 8: Production volume in manufacturing according to technology intensity 110 105 ■:>100 E -1= 95 o E 90 85 ■O !Z 80 J^ 75 !Z O (5 70 - Manufacturing total ■ High-and medium-high-technology-intensive industries - Medium-low-technology-intensive industries ■ Low-technology-intensive industries ^^ ^^ Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. pessimistic attitude about demand was attributable to domestic demand, according to our estimate. The decline in total demand is also reflected in indicators of export and total orders, which fell most notably in the latter half of the year. At the end of the year, most of the enterprises surveyed reported lower production than usual in that time of the year.7 Weaker demand is also corroborated by revenues from sales, which dropped further in October (-1.8%, seasonally adjusted), following Q2 and Q3 declines. This was a consequence of lower revenues from sales on the foreign market, while revenues from sales on the domestic market remained unchanged in October after declining in the previous two quarters of the year. Figure 9: Business trends in manufacturing - selected indicators -Total orders -Expected total demand 40 - Production Export orders Expected export order-books ■J -40 -60 -80 1 ii" 1 JK /- V V -"« /A'"-' j i :...;.. ■"7........ h\ V r.......1.........f" .........t.........r— : : : J .....-V.............. : : : : ......1.........i.........1......... :::::: .........1........ : : : : Construction activity dropped again in October, hitting the lowest value in the time of the crisis. After September's growth (7.1%, seasonally adjusted), the value of construction put in place dropped once again in October (-14.1%, seasonally adjusted), being down 25.3% from the previous October. Low activity was recorded for all construction sectors, but the value of construction work done dropped most notably in civil engineering (-17.2%). However, these data pertain to major companies and the drop of activity according to data that include smaller companies may be smaller.8 In 2010, the value added of companies with more than 50 employees in the preceding year declined by 29.9%,9 while the value added of smaller companies dropped only by 1.8%. The prospects remain uncertain, as, after significant monthly fluctuations, the value of new contracts in large construction companies dropped by 11.7% in October, being down 31.5% y-o-y in the first ten months of 2011. In the first ten months of 2011, the value of new contracts in the construction of buildings dropped by half and in civil engineering by 5.2%. Figure 10: Value of construction put in place -Construction - total -Residential buildings -----Non-residential buildings -----Civil engineering works 120 60 50 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Turnover increased in all trade sectors in October. Real turnover in the sale and repair of motor vehicles, which recorded relatively high growth in 2010, stagnated in 2011 according to seasonally adjusted data. Amid monthly fluctuations, October's turnover was roughly 5% below the 2008 average. The Q3 growth of real turnover in retail trade continued into October, being still driven by turnover growth in the sale of automotive fuels. According to our estimate, the latter is a result of increased turnover in transport activities, as well as, most likely, lower prices of certain automotive fuels in comparison with the neighbouring countries. On the other hand, turnover in Source: SORS. 7 Except in August 2011 for the first time since July 2009. 8 See Box 5 in the Autumn Forecast of Economic Trends 2011. 9 The set of companies covered by the survey on construction put in place differs from that of companies with more than 50 employees, but they should be very similar, according to our estimate. 90 80 70 40 30 20 20 0 the sale of food and non-food products, which had been roughly unchanged since the end of 2009, declined in the second half of 2011. Nominal turnover in wholesale trade, which had been increasing in the second half of 2011, saw even stronger growth in October (6.3%, seasonally adjusted). However, turnover still lags most notably behind the 2008 average of all three main trade sectors. Figure 11: Turnover in trade sectors -Retail trade, real ■ Automotive fuel, real ■ Sale, repair of motor vehicles , real -Wholesale, nominal Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. October recorded further growth in nominal turnover in market services (excluding distributive trades).10 After in the past two years the overall growth mainly resulted from transportation and storage, in October turnover increased in most market services. Within transportation Figure 12: Nominal turnover in market services (without distributive trades) -Total -Transportation and storage (H) -----Accomodation and food service activities (I) J, -----Information and communication (J) -----Professional, scient. and technical activ. ( Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. and storage, turnover in land transport expanded more notably at the beginning of the year, while turnover in warehousing and support activities for transportation has grown more strongly in recent months. This is the only of the five main market service activities that has already significantly exceeded the level recorded in 2008. With monthly fluctuations, turnover in accommodation and food service activities is growing steadily on account of the rising number of overnight stays, and has already reached the average level of 2008. Nominal turnover in information and communication services grew substantially in October, after having declined in the third quarter. Professional and technical services saw a continuation of third quarter growth, but their turnover still lags most notably behind the average level in 2008. Household consumption remained modest in the last quarter of 2011. In November, the net wage bill remained at roughly the same level as in September (seasonally adjusted). In October and November, it was 2.0% lower in real terms relative to the same period of the preceding year. In 2011 as a whole, the number of first passenger car registrations was, despite December's increase, 12.6% lower than in 2010. Data on business trends indicate that consumers remain pessimistic with regard to major purchases in the months ahead. Amid the overall improvement of expectation indicators, the value of the consumer confidence indicator rose in December, but remains low, meaning that no significant improvement of household demand can be expected in the coming months. Figure 13: Household consumption indicators g 110 90 .EE 70 60 - Turnover in retail trade excluding automotive fuels (left axis) - No. of first car registrations by natural persons (left axis) • Net wage bill (left axis) - Consumer confdence indicator, seasonally adjusted (right axis) 10 \ '—, 1 --s. .......1........r...............i^*"....... -10 -20 iS -30 -50 10 Activities from H to N subject to the Council Regulation (EC) No. 1165/98 concerning short-term statistics. Source: S^ORS, MI-IAAD. " Even though it ceased todeteriorate, thesentiment indicator still indicates low economic activity. The seasonally adjusted indicator value, which had been declining between May and October, remained unchanged in the last three months of the year. In all three months, it was still lower than in the same period of the preceding year. Having £ 100 0 80 50 been deteriorating since May, manufacturing confidence improved slightly in November and December, but the majority of managers still evaluated their business situation as bad. The confidence indicator in retail trade, which had fluctuated most of the year, remained relatively high in the last four months. The confidence indicator in other service activities deteriorated for the fourth month in a row. The confidence indicator in construction grew slightly in December, but remained by far the lowest Figure 14: Business trends - Economic sentiment ■ Retail trade - Construction Source: SORS. Table 2: Persons in employment by activity among all activities. Consumer confidence remains fairly low as well, despite December's improvement. Labour market The number of employed persons according to the statistical register11 declined again in October according to seasonally adjusted data. It has mainly been dropping since October 2008, in October 2011 by an additional 0.1%. Broken down by activities (original data), in October, the number of formally employed persons dropped most notably relative to September in transportation and storage activities and in the construction sector, while it increased the most in manufacturing and education. October's registered unemployment rate (11.9%) remained at the level of the preceding month, seasonally adjusted. Registered unemployment rose in November according to seasonally adjusted data. A total of 111,069 persons were jobless at the end of November, 7.0% more than in the same month of the preceding year. Within inflows into unemployment (8,592), particularly the number of firsttime job seekers declined relative to October, as October is characterised by a seasonal inflow of people who have finished school and are looking for a job. Outflows from unemployment increased in November compared with the previous month (8,428 persons), largely due to deletions of unemployed people for neglect of duties (particularly due to their inactivity as job seekers) and Number in '000 Change in umber 2010 X 10 IX 11 X 11 10/09 X 11/ IX 11 X 11/ X 10 I-X 11/ I-X 10 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 33.4 33.3 38.8 38.1 -4,437 -616 4,829 5,418 B Mining and quarrying 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 -308 -30 -139 -113 C Manufacturing 188.6 188.4 185.2 186.8 -11,253 1,579 -1,637 -4,445 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 8.0 8.0 7.9 8.0 54 42 -25 -106 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 9.2 9.3 9.6 9.7 138 32 386 202 F Construction 78.5 77.1 67.0 66.2 -8,231 -800 -10,905 -10,764 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 111.8 111.2 109.4 109.5 -2,842 148 -1,683 -2,340 H Transportation and storage 47.9 47.7 47.9 46.7 -1,874 -1,112 -983 -982 I Accommodation and food service activities 33.2 32.9 32.5 32.4 -806 -71 -425 -872 J Information and communication 22.6 22.8 22.6 22.6 59 72 -172 124 K Financial and insurance activities 24.3 24.5 24.0 24.0 -208 -72 -505 -47 L Real estate activities 4.3 4.4 4.0 4.0 -34 -12 -323 -211 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 46.8 47.6 48.0 48.1 2,037 162 476 1,213 N Administrative and support service activities 26.4 27.0 26.4 26.5 840 62 -518 -7 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 52.0 52.0 51.2 51.3 502 67 -748 -700 P Education 63.5 64.4 64.9 65.2 1,833 280 803 1,185 Q Human health and social work activities 53.2 53.6 54.5 54.6 1,080 150 1,028 867 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 14.2 14.2 13.9 13.9 125 39 -328 -344 S Other service activities 13.5 13.6 13.3 13.3 185 4 -253 -201 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 1 Employed and self-employed persons, excluding self-employed farmers. Figure 15: Seasonally adjusted labour market movements -Employed according to the statistical register(left axis) -Registered unemployed (right axis) Table 3: Labour market indicators 180 ro 160 cS 140 120 100 C 80 Ti 60 'i^ 40 Source: SORS, ESS; calculations by IMAD those who had found work. Among the outflows from unemployment for reasons other than employment, the number of people deleted from the register due to retirement also grew at the end of 2011, as it had in 2010. The duration of unemployment increased further in November, to 643 days. In the private sector, the gross wage per employee increased again in October, seasonally adjusted, while in the public sector, it remained stagnant due to austerity measures. The Table 4: Wages by activity in % 2010 X 11/ IX 11 X 11/ X 10 I-X 11/ I-X 10 Labour force -1.0 0.4 -0.3 -0.1 Persons in formal employment -2.7 0.0 -1.3 -0.7 - Employed in enterprises and organisations and by those self-employed -2.6 0.1 -2.2 -1.3 Registered unemployed 16.4 3.6 8.0 -0.8 Average nominal gross wage 3.9 0.2 1.5 2.2 - private sector 5.1 0.1 2.1 2.9 - public sector -0.1 0.5 -0.2 0.0 2010 X 10 IX 11 X 11 Rate of registered unemployment, in % 10.8 11.0 11.9 11.9 Average nominal gross wage (in EUR) 1,494.88 1,487.86 1,506.87 1,510.44 Private sector (in EUR) 1,414.65 1,404.18 1,431.01 1,432.97 Public sector (in EUR) 1,750.61 1,752.20 1,740.69 1,748.56 Sources: ESS, SORS; calculations by IMAD. Opomba: 1The division into the private and public sectors is (for easier and consistent comparison of wage and productivity growth) adjusted to SORS' division of activities in the quarterly release of GDP. The public sector comprises activities O-Q and the private sector all other activities (A-N, R-S). The growth rates of the average gross wage per employee for 2009 and 2010 are therefore also slightly changed, ^seasonally adjusted data. otherwise modest increase in the private sector was due to higher payments for overtime work and extraordinary payments at the end of the year, a small part of which is usually already disbursed in October. In the first ten months, the y-o-y wage growth, as in 2010, resulted from private sector growth (2.9%) but was much lower than in the same period of the year before (3.9%). Gross wage per employee, in EUR Growth rates, % 2010 X 2011 2010/ 2009 X 11/ IX 11 X 11/ X 10 I-X 11/ I-X 10 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 1,267.00 1,273.27 5.8 -1.6 0.2 3.7 B Mining and quarrying 1,904.97 1,952.90 4.0 -0.5 9.7 3.8 C Manufacturing 1,311.57 1,337.97 9.0 -0.3 2.8 4.0 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 2,095.67 2,052.21 3.7 1.0 3.7 3.5 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 1,444.70 1,424.35 2.2 0.6 2.2 1.0 F Constrution 1,211.63 1,222.75 4.4 -1.1 -0.5 2.2 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 1,325.08 1,363.65 3.7 1.4 2.4 2.7 H Transportation and storage 1,421.14 1,456.14 2.0 0.7 3.5 3.1 I Accommodation and food service activities 1,074.27 1,086.16 4.0 0.2 0.6 2.8 J Information and communication 2,092.15 2,069.22 2.6 -2.1 1.2 1.3 K Financial and insurance activities 2,144.81 2,055.08 1.0 -0.9 -0.6 1.6 L Real estate activities 1,477.74 1,482.45 3.0 0.0 1.7 3.3 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 1,765.21 1,746.97 1.6 1.7 0.5 0.0 N Administrative and support service activities 952.15 985.83 4.1 -0.8 2.4 3.6 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 1,778.20 1,769.58 -0.6 -0.7 -1.3 0.4 P Education 1,730.26 1,742.84 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.2 Q Human health and social work activities 1,746.86 1,733.99 -0.3 1.6 -0.5 -0.7 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 1,731.32 1,752.31 0.5 3.1 1.6 -0.6 S Other service activities 1,397.40 1,397.62 4.2 0.2 0.0 1.4 200 Figure 16: Outflow from the unemployment register -Found work -Transition into inactivity -----Neglect of duties 7,000 6,000 5,000 Figure 18: Headline and core inflation in Slovenia and in the euro area Source: ESS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 17: Average gross wage per employee -Total -----Private sector -Public sector 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 ;s 1,400 1,300 1,200 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Note: Private sector (activities A-N; R-S), Public sector (activities O-Q). Prices Consumer prices rose 2.0% in Slovenia and 2.8%12 in the euro area in 2011. In 2011, the general price level rises in Slovenia and the entire euro area were impacted by sluggish economic activity and higher oil and food prices at the beginning of the year. We estimate that Slovenia's lower inflation is largely due to weaker economic activity. At the end of the year it was also significantly affected by seasonal factors. In 2011, inflation stood at a similar level as in the previous three years. Over the past four years, price dynamics were mainly affected by the economic crisis and consequent 1 -HICP -Slovenia 6 -----HICP core inflation -Slovenia -HICP -Euro area 1 5 / --V— \ - 0 -4 -12 -16 and metal products. November saw somewhat stronger price growth in the manufacture of clothing. In the first eleven months of 2011, Slovenia was still among the Member States with relatively large improvements in price competitiveness compared with the same period of the preceding year, despite a gradual deterioration since the middle of the year.13 The price competitiveness of the economy deteriorated again in November, while in most other euro area countries it improved. Because of growth in relative prices, the real effective exchange rate deflated by the HICP strengthened at the monthly level in November for the fourth month in a row. It was also higher than in the previous December and November, while in the first eleven months it had still been lower than in the same period of the year before. After in the first seven months of 2011 Slovenia had been in the group of euro area countries with more pronounced improvements in price competitiveness, it was among those with greater losses in price competitiveness between August and November. The deterioration of Slovenia's position among euro area members was partly related to monthly growth in relative prices, which in most other Member States have remained unchanged since August, or dropped. The deterioration was also partly attributable to the monthly growth of the 13 Slovenia was ranked 2nd among the eight Member States which had improved price competitiveness y-o-y, as it was only Ireland that had recorded a larger drop in the real effective exchange rate deflated by the HICP than Slovenia in the first eleven months. ^ 4 Box 2: Comparison of the movements of residential property prices in Europe Eurostat released1 the first comparable residential property price indices for EU Member States. They are based on data provided by national statistical institutes and cover the period from the first quarter of 2005 until the second quarter of 2011. The indices pertain to all residential properties owned by households.2 Eurostat's calculation is otherwise still merely experimental and data for individual country are hard to compare, as definitions have not yet been fully harmonised. For Slovenia, Eurostat used only data on existing residential property. To enable international comparison, we therefore added SORS data on prices of new houses and flats. - Slovenia - Euro area Spain - Ireland Slovenia -new and second-hand dwellings* rlGG 9G .......1- The movements of residential property prices in Slovenia are Figure 21: Residential Property Price Index similar to those in the euro area, even though Slovenia's real estate market is under greater pressure of the economic crisis and particularly the crisis in construction. After dropping in 2009, residential property prices in Slovenia and in the euro area as a whole started to increase slowly again but are nevertheless still lower than before the crisis. The difference lies in the extent of fluctuations: in Slovenia, prices dropped more notably during the crisis than, on average, in the euro area,3 but in recent months they have also been rising somewhat faster than in the euro area, even though Slovenia has suffered the sharpest fall in construction activity. Together with Spain and Ireland, where the breakdown of the real estate market was one of the main reasons for the deep economic crisis, Slovenia already had faster growth of residential property prices than the euro area average before 2007. In the first quarter of 2007, when it entered the euro area, the increase in real estate prices in Slovenia was, with the exception of that in Malta, even the largest in the EU and thus also larger than in Spain and Ireland. However, unlike in Slovenia, after 2009, residential property prices in Spain and Ireland have been dropping, while Slovenia's market responded to the crisis with a smaller number of transactions rather than with lower prices. 6G a a a a a Source: Eurostat, SORS; calculations by IMAD. Note: *SORS. 1 Experimental house price indices in the euro area and the European Union in the second quarter of 2011. Eurostat, November 2011. 2 Both new and existing flats and houses. It is different than the SORS index of real estate prices, which are regularly monitored in the Economic Mirror and refer only to flats. Data for them are shown separately for new and existing flats and comprise the period from the first quarter of 2007. 3 Including the prices of new residential property, the drop in Slovenia was even larger. Figure 22: Real effective exchange rate (HICP deflator) 106 104 102 > 100 98 96 94 - Slovenia - Germany Austria - Italy France ....................AAi. i r\»V V nominal effective exchange rate, which declined in most other Member States. Because of different external trade structure, the negative effect of the appreciation of the euro against the CZK, HUF, PLN and CHF on Slovenia's price competitiveness was relatively greater, while the positive effect of the drop of the euro against the USD, JPY and GBP was relatively smaller.14 14 In the euro area, share of trade with Balance of payments Slovenia maintained a more or less balanced current account of the balance of payments until October 2011. October recorded a surplus of EUR 49.4 m. The y-o-y improvement (a deficit of EUR 41.2 m in October 2010) was a result of an improved balance of trade in goods and services. On the other hand, the deficit in the balance of factor incomes widened y-o-y, while the surplus in current transfers was somewhat smaller. The deficit in current transactions in the first ten months of 2011 (EUR 20.2 m) was much lower than in the same period of the year before (EUR 247.8 m). Slovenia has an above-average share of external trade with Hungary, the Czech Republic, Poland and Switzerland, and a below-average the US, Japan and the UK. Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD. The surplus in goods and services trade widened y-o-y again in October. In October, the merchandise trade deficit was substantially smaller y-o-y, while the surplus in services trade was up. In the first ten months, the merchandise trade deficit widened y-o-y, primarily as a result of a wider deficit in trade with the EU. Meanwhile, the surplus in services was EUR 462 m larger than in the same period of the preceding year, mainly on account of a wider surplus in trade in travel and transport services. The deficit of the balance of factor incomes continued to increase y-o-y due to higher net interest payments to the rest of the world, while the surplus in current transfers declined somewhat y-o-y in October. The balance of factor incomes is crucially affected by net repayments of interest, which are up y-o-y from the third quarter of 2010. As a result of issued government bonds and the maturity dynamics of interest payments, net interest payments of the general government sector were up more than EUR 75 m y-o-y in the first ten months of 2011. Commercial banks also paid more interest abroad than they received. In view that commercial banks' net external debt declined by EUR 1.1 bn to EUR 6.8 bn from October 2010 to October 2011, we estimate that the y-o-y increase in net interest payments by commercial banks reflects higher interbank interest rates, and probably also higher margins. The y-o-y narrowing of October's surplus in the balance of current transfers was a consequence of higher net payments of private sector's insurance. On the other hand, Slovenia continued to see successful drawing of funds from the EU budget. Figure 23: Net interest payments by sector General government Private sector 30 -Total Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. In the first ten months of 2011, financial transactions15 posted a net capital outflow of EUR 636.4 m (in the same period of the preceding year, a net inflow of 368.1 m). In October, financial transactions recorded a net capital outflow of EUR 284.0 m, in contrast to the net inflow in the amount of EUR 37.3 m in October 2010. Direct investment saw net outflows in the amount of EUR 35.6 m in October, with modest equity flows. Portfolio investment recorded a net inflow in the amount of EUR 144.4 m, mainly as a result of net purchases of domestic commercial banks' Table 6: Balance of payments I-X 11, EUR m Inflows Outflows Balance1 Balance, I - X 10 Current account 23,255.7 23,276.0 -20.2 -247.8 - Trade balance (FOB) 17,247.5 18,179.8 -932.2 -851.7 - Services 4,169.8 2,800.2 1,369.6 1,124.7 - Income 740.2 1,277.1 -536.9 -439.9 Current transfers 1,098.2 1,018.8 79.4 -80.8 Capital and financial account 3,108.0 -3,728.0 -620.0 483.9 - Capital account 156.1 -177.9 -21.8 67.5 - Capital transfers 153.9 -172.4 -18.5 70.2 - Non-produced, non-financial assets 2.2 -5.6 -3.4 -2.7 - Financial account 2,951.9 -3,550.1 -598.2 416.3 - Direct investment 469.6 38.3 507.9 72.9 - Portfolio investment 2,249.7 -247.8 2,001.9 1,627.4 - Financial derivates 18.0 -126.8 -108.8 -109.3 - Other investment 176.3 -3,213.7 -3,037.4 -1,222.9 - Assets 0.0 -2,539.2 -2,539.2 11.1 - Liabilities 176.3 -674.6 -498.2 -1,234.0 - Reserve assets 38.2 0.0 38.2 48.3 Net errors and omissions 640.2 0.0 640.2 -236.1 Sources: BS. Note: 1a minus sign (-) in the balance indicates a surplus of imports over exports in the current account and a rise in assets in the capital and financial account and the central bank's international reserves.. 15 Excluding international monetary reserves and statistical errors. debt securities by foreigners. In October, the highest net outflow was recorded by other investment of all main components of the financial account of the balance of payments (EUR 390.6 m). Looking at external claims, the greatest increase was posted for domestic household deposits in accounts abroad. Short-term commercial crediting improved as well, which had to do with growing exports of goods. Regarding liabilities, most transactions were done through the banking sector, with domestic commercial banks having repaid a portion of long-term loans. Figure 24: Financial transactions of the balance of payments by instrument Financial derivatives Direct investment Portfolio investment Other investment 2 000 -Net financial flow 1,600 1,200 800 400 0 äE Figure 25: Net flows of domestic banks' loans to domestic non-banking sectors Households ^^Enterprlses&NF^ ^^ Government -Total -400 -1,200 -1,600 -2,000 JŠ Source: BS. Financial markets The lending activity of domestic banks stagnated in November. Borrowing was recorded only by the government, while households and, to a lesser extent, enterprises and NFIs, repaid their loans in November. The volume of domestic bank loans to domestic non-banking sectors shrank by nearly EUR 230 m in the first eleven months of 2011, while in the same period of 2010 there had still been net inflows in the amount of EUR 1.1 bn. Despite a somewhat slower decline of lending activity in the last two months, the financing conditions of banks have tightened further. Banks are facing a further outflow of both domestic deposits and foreign deposits and loans. Outflows increased significantly in November, according to our estimate also as a result of new tensions on international financial markets, because of which banks find it all the more difficult to refinance maturing liabilities. Households recorded net repayments of domestic bank loans in November. Net repayments were largely a result of repayments of housing loans, which is also attributable to the lower value of the Swiss franc. Euro borrowing eased 100 0 -100 -200 -300 Ji Ji Source: BS; calculations by IM AD. substantially relative to previous months. It was stagnant and at the lowest level in the last three years. Household net borrowing in the first eleven months of 2011 totalled only EUR 185.2 m, less than a quarter of the level in the same period of the preceding year. November's net repayments of corporate and NFI loans with domestic banks totalled EUR 1.1 m. Enterprises recorded net borrowing again, while NFIs net repaid their loans. In the first eleven months, corporate and NFI net repayments climbed to a high EUR 373.2 m, while the same period of 2010 still recorded net inflows in the amount of EUR 24.8 m. Corporate and NFI borrowing abroad has moderated substantially in recent months. Enterprises have also recorded somewhat stronger borrowing in the form of Figure 26: Net corporate and NFI borrowing abroad and gaps in interest rates Loans (left axis) -Diff. between domestic and foreign interest rates (right axis) 250 SI 50 cc F2 0 100 50 350 300 200 Table 7: Financial market indicators Domestic bank loans to nonbanking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR bn Nominal loan growth, % 31. XII 10 30. XI 11 30. XI 11/ 31. X 11 30. XI 11/ 31. XII 10 30. XI 11/ 30. XI 10 Loans total 33,519.35 33,292.43 0.0 -0.7 -0.8 Enterprises and NFI 23,039.29 22,666.09 0.0 -1.6 -2.2 Government 1,197.94 1,159.04 1.2 -3.2 1.3 Households 9,282.12 9,467.30 -0.1 2.0 2.6 Consumer credits 2,833.17 2,753.61 0.2 -2.8 -3.4 Lending for house purchase 4,837.08 5,136.23 -0.3 6.2 8.4 Other lending 1,611.87 1,577.46 -0.2 -2.1 -3.5 Bank deposits total 14,839.57 15,018.42 -0.2 1.2 2.3 Overnight deposits 6,200.38 6,510.69 2.3 5.0 6.3 Short-term deposits 4,473.15 3,975.39 -4.5 -11.1 -11.4 Long-term deposits 4,156.68 4,525.15 0.4 8.9 11.5 Deposits redeemable at notice 9.35 7.19 -2.2 -23.1 -30.0 Mutual funds 2,048.36 1,822.21 -2.8 -11.0 -8.4 Government bank deposits total 2,678.50 2,885.58 -7.1 7.7 -1.8 Overnight deposits 64.40 154.00 89.5 139.1 170.4 Short-term deposits 555.35 739.83 -28.8 33.2 -8.1 Long-term deposits 2,055.29 1,989.55 0.3 -3.2 -4.1 Deposits redeemable at notice 3.46 2.21 -34.1 -36.1 -36.1 Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BS, SMA (Securities Market Agency); calculations by IMAD. short-term loans. In October alone, the net flow of short-term loans totalled close to EUR 20 m, while long-term loans were, in smaller amounts, net repaid for the third month in a row. The decline in loan volume and shorter loan maturities in recent months could also reflect the fact that financial markets are gradually ranking Slovenia among riskier countries, which makes it even harder for enterprises and NFIs to access foreign sources of finance. In the first ten months of 2011, enterprises and NFIs net repaid somewhat less than EUR 130 m in loans at home Figure 27: Net flows of loans to the non-banking sector in the euro area 1 Households lEnterprises&NFI I Government -Total 180 150 120 90 60 c (D 30 cc 3 m 0 -30 -60 -90 -120 and abroad, nearly twice as much as in the same period of 2010. The volume of loans in the euro area dropped further in November. At EUR 11.7 bn, the decline was otherwise nearly two thirds lower than in October. This time, loans were net repaid particularly by enterprises and NFIs, but their net flows in the first eleven months were nevertheless more than half higher than in the same period of 2010. The net borrowing of households and general government was below that in 2010. Figure 28: Net bank borrowing abroad 1,400 —. , - T—!—!—I—r 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 c 200 (D ^^ 0 13 -200 -400 -600 -800 -1,000 -1,200 -1,400 ■ Deposits Short-term ■ ^^ Long-term -Total ,, ^^ is ^^ J; ^^ Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD. Source: BS. In October, banks operating in Slovenia continued to repay loans taken out abroad. Net repayments totalled over EUR 250 m, and in the first ten months banks net repaid EUR 1.4 bn in foreign loans and deposits, a tenth more than in the same period of 2010. As liquidity pressures on banks strengthened substantially in 2011 amid a concurrent significant decline in the availability of financial resources on interbank markets, at the end of the year, the ECB took additional measures to soften liquidity problems and stimulate lending. The most important measure is a longer-term refinancing operation with a maturity of 36 months and the ECB already granted almost EUR 500 bn in loans to EU banks at its first auction at the end of December. The quality of banks' assets deteriorates further and banks continue to create provisions, but these are deteriorating less than the quality of assets. By the end of October, the share of bad assets had already accounted for more than a tenth of total bank claims and their volume (EUR 5.1 bn) had been almost a third higher than at the end of 2010. The bulk of growth comes from an increase in non-performing claims, which already represent more than half of all bad assets, while the growth of C-rated claims eased substantially due to strong outflows into lower grades. With a rapid increase in non-performing claims, banks increasingly created impairments and provisions, which, totalling more than EUR 780 m, almost reached the 2010 level in the first eleven months, even though in previous years, the creation of impairments and provisions was most vigorous in December. At the end of October, the volume of total impairments and provisions would have nonetheless covered only the volume of non-performing, i.e. D- and E-rated, claims, which means that amid a further deterioration of the quality of banks' assets banks were even insufficiently restrictive in creating impairments and provisions. Figure 29: Creation of additional impairments and provisions and the share of non-performing claims in Slovenia's banking system ^^m Provisions and impairments (left axis) -Share of non-performing claims (right axis) -Share of C-rated claims (right axis) 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 2.5 JS 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. In November, household and government deposits recorded net outflows in the total amount of almost EUR 250 m. Household deposits accounted for a mere tenth of total net outflows and were due to a substantial decline in short-term deposits (EUR 187.8 m), the bulk of which were shifted to overnight deposits, while long-term deposits had recorded weak growth for the second month in a row. Net inflows of household deposits dropped more than half y-o-y in the first eleven months of 2011, totalling EUR 178.9 m, which is, according to our estimate, attributable to tensions on both the labour market and financial markets. In November, the volume of government deposits in banks shrank by EUR 222.0 m, which was one of larger declines in 2011. As households, the government also mainly withdrew short-term deposits, though it also slightly increased overnight deposits. In the first eleven months, net inflows of government deposits to Slovenian banks totalled nearly EUR 280 m (with two issues of bonds in the total amount of EUR 3 bn), in contrast to net outflows of close to EUR 1 bn recorded in the same period of 2010. Figure 30: Net inflows of household and government deposits in banks ■ Households I Government deposits -Total 1,250 1,000 750 500 250 0 -250 -500 -750 -1,000 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. Public finance According to the consolidated balance16 of the MF, in the first nine months of 2011, the y-o-y growth of general government revenue was higher than in the same period of the preceding year, while growth in expenditure was lower. Y-o-y growth in general government revenue, which was high between March and May, has since been slowing. The higher y-o-y growth in the first nine months was 16 The consolidated balance (according to the cash flow methodology) includes revenues and expenditures of the state and local government budgets, as well as revenues and expenditures of the pension and health funds (the Institute for Pension and Disability Insurance, and the Health Insurance Institute of Slovenia). Table 8: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 2010 2011 EUR m % of GDP Growth, % I-IX11 v mio EUR I-IX 11/ I-IX 10 Revenue - total 14,789.5 41.8 2.7 10,965.5 5.1 - Tax revenues 12,848.3 36.3 -0.8 9,736.5 4.0 - Taxes on income and profit 2,490.7 7.0 -11.2 2,026.0 13.5 - Social security contributions 5,234.5 14.8 1.4 3,921.4 1.3 - Domestic taxes on goods and servises 4,780.6 13.5 2.6 3,531.2 2.2 - Receipts from the EU budget 724.6 2.0 21.5 540.3 41.3 Expenditure - total 16,675.9 47.1 1.9 12,302.6 1.6 - Wages and other personnel expenditure 3,914.9 11.1 0.1 2,931.1 -0.1 - Purchases of goods and services 2,510.5 7.1 0.1 1,803.5 1.9 -Domestic and foreign interest payments 488.1 1.4 45.3 497.4 8.4 - Transfers to individuals and households 6,274.5 17.7 4.2 4,933.9 4.6 - Capital expenditure 1,305.1 3.7 0.9 632.0 -13.0 - Capital transfers 388.4 1.1 -21.6 212.2 -3.2 - Payment to the EU budget 396.8 1.1 -9.7 300.8 -4.7 Source: MF, Public Finance Bulletin. mainly attributable to a large increase in revenue from corporate income tax due to the base effect as a result of tax assessments. Revenues from other main taxes and social security contributions recorded modest growth. Non-tax revenues were down from the same period of the preceding year. Y-o-y growth rates of general government expenditure have been slowing since mid-2011, i.e. the time of the adoption of measures to contain budgetary expenditure. Looking at the economic structure, all expenditure categories were up y-o-y in the first nine months, except expenditure on capital and capital transfers, payments into the EU budget and subsidies. Expenditures on interest and transfers to individuals and households continued to grow at high y-o-y rates. In view of deteriorating labour market conditions and systemic changes, the growth of transfers to the unemployed remained high, despite a slight easing. Growth in expenditure on social security allowances is moderating as well, while pension expenditure has been stable since the valorisation in February. Growth in expenditure on goods and services slowed somewhat, while expenditure on wages and other personnel expenditures were down slightly from the same period of the preceding year. In the first nine months of 2011, the public finance deficit totalled EUR 1,337 m (EUR 1,669 m in the same period of the previous year). The state budget deficit stood at EUR 1,313 m in the first nine months, which is much lower than a year before (EUR 1,589 m). The total balance of local government budgets recorded a surplus in the amount of EUR 22.1 m, while the health fund ran a deficit of EUR 47.7 m. The transfer from the state budget into the pension fund totalled EUR 1,115. m (up 1.9% from the same period of 2010). Figure 31: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 1,500 1,450 i® 1,400 > 1,350 o 1,300 O 1,250 ^^ 1,200 1,150 1,100 -;-;-;-;-;-;-;-;-;-;-;-r" - General government revenues ; ; -General government expenditures i Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. In the first eleven months of 2011, Slovenia's net budgetary surplus towards the EU budget amounted to EUR 307 m, which is a 2.4-fold increase relative to the same period of 2010 (EUR 128 m). In November 2011, Slovenia received EUR 86.5 m from the EU budget, which is the highest figure in 2011, with the exception of March (EUR 99.7 m). Its contributions to the EU budget amounted to EUR 35.3 m, so that Slovenia's positive net budgetary position totalled close to EUR 51 m. By the end of November, Slovenia had received just below EUR 676 m from the EU budget, 79% of the level envisaged in the supplementary budget (47% in the same period of 2010). The bulk of receipts are resources from structural funds (EUR 444.6 m), which also have the highest absorption rate (88.4%). They are followed by revenues under the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies (EUR 177.3 m), with just below 80% of the level planned. Resources from the Cohesion fund (EUR 43 m) represent only 6.3% of this year's total receipts from the EU budget, and their low absorption rate (41% of what was planned) is mainly due to failed public tenders for large infrastructure projects (railway infrastructure). By the end of November, Slovenia had paid EUR 368.9 m into the EU budget, close to 94% of the foreseen amount. Figure 32: Planned and absorbed EU funds Internal policies Funds planned in the supplementary budget for 2011 Funds planned in the state budget for 2010 Total funds received in 2011 (Jan. -Nov.) Total funds received in 2010 (Jan. -Dec.) 200 300 400 500 EUR million Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. 0 600 X "O C o a a (U "5 u (U MAIN INDICATORS 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Autumn forecast 2011 GDP (real growth rates, in %) 5.8 6.9 3.6 -8.0 1.4 1.5 2.0 2.5 GDP in EUR million (current prices and current exchange rate) 31,050 34,562 37,280 35,311 35,416 35,924 37,334 38,871 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices and current exchange rate) 15,464 17,120 18,437 17,295 17,286 17,601 18,256 18,974 GDP per capita (PPS)1 20,700 22,100 22,800 20,700 21,200 - - - GDP per capita (PPS EU27=100)' 88 88 91 88 87 - - - Gross national income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate) 30,677 33,828 36,232 34,593 34,894 35,357 36,522 38,032 Gross national disposable income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate) 30,462 33,601 35,871 34,344 34,940 35,420 36,460 38,039 Rate of registered unemployment 9.4 7.7 6.7 9.1 10.7 11.8 11.8 11.8 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 6.0 4.9 4.4 5.9 7.2 8.0 8.0 8.0 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 4.2 3.4 1.0 -6.3 4.0 3.0 2.0 2.5 Inflation,2 year average 2.5 3.6 5.7 0.9 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.0 Inflation,2 end of the year 2.8 5.6 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.9 INTERNATIONAL TRADE - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS Exports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 12.5 13.7 2.9 -17.2 9.5 7.9 6.3 6.7 Exports of goods 13.4 13.9 0.5 -18.1 11.0 8.7 6.9 7.1 Exports of services 8.6 13.2 14.3 -13.7 4.1 4.6 3.8 4.9 Imports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 12.2 16.7 3.7 -19.6 7.2 5.2 4.6 4.9 Imports of goods 12.7 16.2 3.0 -20.8 8.0 5.5 4.6 4.9 Imports of services 8.8 19.7 8.2 -12.0 2.6 3.1 4.9 5.4 Current account balance, in EUR million -771 -1646 -2574 -456 -297 -351 -181 378 As a per cent share relative to GDP -2.5 -4.8 -6.9 -1.3 -0.8 -1.0 -0.5 1.0 Gross external debt, in EUR million 24,067 34,783 39,234 40,294 40,699 42,4985 As a per cent share relative to GDP 77.5 100.6 105.2 114.1 114.9 Ratio of USD to EUR 1.254 1.371 1.471 1.393 1.327 1.418 1.434 1.434 DOMESTIC DEMAND - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) 2.8 6.1 3.7 -0.1 -0.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 As a % of GDP4 52.8 52.4 53.2 55.8 56.0 56.3 55.3 54.4 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) 4.0 0.6 6.1 2.9 1.5 0.3 -0.5 0.1 As a % of GDP4 18.8 17.3 18.1 20.3 20.8 20.8 20.1 19.6 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) 10.4 13.3 7.8 -23.3 -8.3 -7.5 6.0 5.0 As a % of GDP4 26.5 27.8 28.8 23.4 21.6 20.0 20.8 21.5 Sources of data: SORS, BS, Eurostat, calculations and forecasts by IMAD (Autumn Report, September 2011). Notes: 1Measured in purchasing power standard. ^Consumer price index. 3Balance of payments statistics (exports F.O.B., imports F.O.B.); real growth rates are adjusted for inter currency changes and changes in prices on foreign markets. 4Shares GDP are calculated for GDP in current prices at fixed exchange rate (EUR=239.64). 5End October 2011. PRODUCTION 2008 2009 2010 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 10 11 12 1 2 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D 2.5 -17.4 6.2 -18.4 -7.1 -0.4 10.7 7.2 7.4 8.9 4.0 0.3 -19.6 -1.8 4.7 -8.4 -1.6 B Mining and quarrying 5.5 -2.9 11.0 6.1 4.8 -7.2 11.9 23.7 15.7 -5.2 -9.2 -9.6 -4.3 32.4 -14.8 -5.5 -16.5 C Manufacturing 2.6 -18.7 6.6 -19.5 -7.9 -0.1 12.0 7.3 7.1 9.5 4.4 0.1 -20.8 -2.6 5.2 -8.8 -1.3 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 2.1 -6.6 1.8 -9.7 -5.5 -2.8 -0.5 3.6 7.0 6.6 3.4 4.9 -5.6 -4.6 -6.3 -7.7 -2.0 CONSTRUCTION,2 real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total 15.7 -21.0 -17.0 -24.5 -20.5 -18.9 -16.8 -16.4 -16.2 -25.3 -31.1 -25.4 -28.3 -18.3 -9.5 -11.3 -24.2 Buildings 11.5 -22.5 -14.0 -27.4 -19.6 -7.4 -12.4 -16.5 -19.2 -41.5 -46.5 -34.3 -28.2 -20.0 -7.4 -6.6 -10.2 Civil engineering 18.9 -19.9 -19.0 -22.6 -21.1 -29.3 -19.6 -16.2 -14.1 -6.3 -20.7 -20.0 -28.4 -17.2 -11.3 -15.9 -38.5 TRANSPORT, tonne-km in m, y-o-y growth rates, % Tonne-km in road transport 18.4 -9.2 7.9 -12.3 -4.7 19.8 10.7 9.5 -6.3 -3.2 1.5 - - - Tonne-km in rail transport -2.3 -24.2 28.2 -30.7 -15.9 18.8 33.9 32.2 28.2 23.3 10.8 34.7 - - Distributive trades, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* 10.1 -13.0 3.6 -16.0 -10.0 -1.4 4.9 4.7 5.3 6.7 5.8 7.3 -13.0 -11.1 -5.9 -4.8 -3.6 Real turnover in retail trade 12.2 -10.6 -0.1 -13.8 -11.1 -4.7 0.3 2.0 1.8 2.7 1.8 2.7 -12.9 -13.5 -7.0 -8.5 -5.2 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles 6.2 -21.7 12.1 -23.6 -8.1 6.3 15.4 11.8 14.1 15.4 15.0 17.8 -16.0 -7.2 -1.2 5.2 -0.4 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade 17.1 -21.4 1.4 -26.7 -18.1 -7.9 4.0 5.5 3.7 12.2 3.6 4.5 -23.4 -19.0 -11.1 -10.8 -13.1 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, %, new methodology from 2009 onwards Total, overnight stays 1.8 -3.4 -1.5 -1.8 -5.3 -0.4 -2.4 -2.2 0.4 3.1 6.6 6.6 -2.9 -7.2 -6.5 1.0 -2.1 Domestic tourists, overnight stays 5.2 2.8 -4.2 6.7 -4.0 1.3 -3.0 -9.6 -0.3 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.9 -5.1 -9.2 3.5 -0.1 Foreign tourists, overnight stays -0.5 -8.0 0.7 -7.1 -6.4 -2.1 -2.0 3.2 1.0 6.5 11.3 10.2 -6.5 -9.3 -3.7 -0.9 -5.2 Nominal turnover market services (without distributive trades) 6.7 -7.8 2.8 -8.0 -11.0 0.0 1.5 4.2 5.4 5.7 4.7 4.6 -11.2 -11.6 -10.3 0.5 -1.5 AGRICULTURE, y-o-y growth rates, % Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EUR m 529.9 449.3 454.5 109.0 129.0 94.6 106.7 115.6 137.5 100.4 113.3 125.7 43.4 38.4 47.2 29.7 28.6 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**) Sentiment indicator 3 -22 -9 -18 -13 -12 -9 -6 -8 -7 -4 -6 -12 -14 -13 -10 -11 Confidence indicator - in manufacturing -5 -23 -1 -19 -12 -7 -1 2 0 4 3 -1 -15 -11 -11 -6 -8 - in construction 2 -50 -57 -54 -51 -57 -60 -56 -53 -52 -46 -44 -55 -48 -49 -55 -56 - in services 27 -14 -3 -9 -1 -2 -5 -2 -2 1 4 3 5 -5 -2 5 2 - in retail trade 22 -13 7 -9 -7 -6 11 12 12 1 14 2 -7 -7 -6 -8 -6 Consumer confidence indicator -20 -30 -25 -23 -25 -25 -22 -27 -25 -27 -25 -25 -26 -24 -26 -25 -24 Source of data: SORS. Notes: 'Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. "Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels. »»Seasonally adjusted data. 2010 2011 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 8.1 8.5 14.1 9.6 6.3 12.4 4.0 4.8 4.3 13.8 13.9 6.9 6.7 3.6 4.6 3.7 -0.9 -1.4 2.9 -1.4 0.2 9.4 19.0 7.4 15.9 37.4 19.2 20.7 -2.5 39.7 -5.6 -0.7 -8.4 -4.3 -22.4 0.6 -8.3 -17.7 -2.3 -8.2 9.0 9.7 15.2 11.0 7.4 13.1 3.0 4.8 5.0 12.4 14.9 7.1 7.5 3.6 5.5 4.0 -1.3 -2.4 3.3 -1.8 - - 1.9 -2.1 3.1 -2.3 -3.6 1.2 13.6 2.2 0.6 17.4 10.6 5.9 3.2 5.3 2.9 2.0 4.0 11.8 -0.4 3.8 - - -19.8 -17.9 -15.5 -17.2 -17.4 -13.0 -18.7 -18.0 -17.5 -12.2 -20.9 -23.6 -29.7 -27.0 -29.3 -36.2 -27.0 -31.2 -17.5 -25.3 -5.5 -13.7 -7.5 -15.8 -11.2 -17.8 -20.3 -17.4 -28.1 -12.4 -25.9 -41.2 -53.1 -37.9 -48.0 -52.8 -36.0 -36.7 -30.0 -33.9 -30.8 -20.6 -20.3 -18.0 -21.0 -10.0 -17.6 -18.3 -10.3 -12.1 -15.4 2.7 -5.2 -19.0 -16.6 -25.9 -21.2 -28.0 -9.7 -20.4 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 4.2 3.1 4.2 7.3 2.4 5.0 6.8 4.2 9.0 4.1 8.7 9.8 3.9 3.4 6.0 1.3 -0.1 6.4 2.4 1.4 - -0.5 -1.7 -1.0 3.6 1.8 1.0 3.1 1.3 3.6 0.4 4.0 5.5 0.6 0.3 1.8 -1.0 -1.1 5.7 2.2 1.1 2.2 14.1 14.5 16.0 15.6 3.8 16.2 15.3 10.7 20.2 14.1 19.2 18.3 9.8 9.8 14.0 5.9 2.2 8.0 2.8 2.1 -4.0 -0.9 -3.4 5.0 10.8 3.1 7.9 5.6 1.1 4.8 5.3 11.2 15.4 10.4 4.2 5.9 0.8 -0.6 8.5 6.0 10.6 - - 0.1 -1.7 -3.0 -2.5 -1.7 -3.6 -0.3 2.5 -0.8 -1.2 4.9 -1.9 6.7 13.6 -4.2 10..6 4.1 7.0 9.8 1.9 7.1 1.1 2.1 -7.2 -3.3 -9.0 -11.1 -7.9 -3.0 -0.5 3.2 0.1 -2.0 2.7 9.3 -3.0 -3.4 -3.7 2.1 7.3 -2.9 8.6 - -1.0 -4.6 -0.1 -1.8 4.3 1.6 4.4 7.0 -1.1 -5.4 8.6 -1.7 11.0 17.2 -5.0 21.6 9.7 10.0 11.2 5.5 5.5 - 1.1 -1.4 2.3 3.6 5.6 4.8 2.2 6.8 4.5 4.9 7.2 4.9 5.1 7.0 0.5 6.8 2.2 4.7 6.9 1.6 - - 36.4 35.5 36.0 35.1 37.4 36.2 42.1 45.7 44.1 47.7 32.9 30.5 36.9 36.9 39.6 36.8 42.2 39.8 43.7 48.9 -15 -12 -9 -6 -5 -7 -7 -7 -8 -8 -7 -7 -6 -4 -3 -5 -5 -7 -6 -10 -10 -10 -6 -3 -2 1 5 1 1 3 -1 -1 4 4 3 5 3 1 0 -2 -2 -8 -7 -5 -61 -62 -58 -59 -60 -56 -51 -50 -54 -56 -55 -50 -50 -49 -44 -45 -46 -42 -43 -43 -46 -41 -12 -9 -4 -3 -1 -2 -2 -4 -2 -1 0 -2 4 5 3 3 3 5 2 0 -3 -9 -5 9 9 14 10 14 12 13 10 12 -4 12 -4 13 17 13 -2 -8 16 15 16 14 -26 -24 -22 -21 -27 -27 -27 -26 -24 -26 -26 -28 -26 -27 -24 -23 -24 -27 -23 -26 -26 -20 LABOUR MARKET 2008 2009 2010 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 11 12 1 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 942.5 944.5 935.5 942.6 943.9 935.8 937.8 933.8 934.8 936.8 937.5 931.1 945.5 941.3 935.7 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)' 879.3 858.2 835.0 854.3 848.4 836.3 839.2 835.4 829.3 821.9 828.4 823.9 850.0 844.7 836.1 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 39.7 37.9 33.4 37.9 37.8 31.9 34.6 34.0 33.3 38.0 40.1 38.8 37.8 37.7 31.9 In industry, construction 330.4 306.9 287.3 304.0 296.8 290.9 289.2 287.0 281.9 273.7 274.2 272.7 297.6 294.0 291.5 Of which: in manufacturing 222.4 199.8 188.6 196.7 191.7 190.0 189.4 188.1 186.8 184.1 184.7 184.4 192.1 190.6 190.0 in construction 87.9 86.8 78.5 86.9 84.8 80.9 79.6 78.6 75.0 69.7 69.3 67.9 85.2 83.3 81.5 In services 509.1 513.4 514.3 512.4 513.7 513.5 515.3 514.3 514.1 510.2 514.1 512.4 514.6 512.9 512.6 Of which: in public administration 51.0 51.5 52.0 51.7 51.6 51.8 52.3 52.1 51.8 51.2 51.5 51.4 51.7 51.6 51.6 in education, health-services, social work 111.1 113.8 116.7 113.3 114.7 115.9 116.8 116.3 118.0 117.8 118.8 118.5 114.9 114.7 115.4 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 789.9 767.4 747.2 762.9 756.1 750.1 751.0 747.0 740.6 728.1 731.9 728.9 757.7 752.4 749.7 In enterprises and organisations 717.6 699.4 685.7 695.5 690.5 687.2 688.7 685.7 681.3 671.4 673.9 671.3 691.8 687.8 686.4 By those self-employed 72.3 67.9 61.5 67.4 65.7 62.9 62.3 61.4 59.3 56.7 58.0 57.6 65.9 64.6 63.3 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 89.4 90.8 87.8 91.4 92.2 86.2 88.1 88.3 88.7 93.8 96.5 95.0 92.3 92.2 86.4 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 63.2 86.4 100.5 88.3 95.6 99.4 98.6 98.4 105.5 114.9 109.1 107.2 95.4 96.7 99.6 Female 33.4 42.4 47.9 43.2 46.4 47.0 46.8 47.8 50.2 52.9 50.9 51.1 46.5 46.5 47.2 By age: under 26 9.1 13.3 13.9 12.8 15.2 14.7 13.5 12.4 15.1 14.5 12.6 11.3 15.1 14.8 15.0 aged over 50 21.9 26.2 31.4 26.9 28.3 29.6 30.3 31.1 34.5 40.1 39.1 38.7 28.3 28.7 29.5 Unskilled 25.4 34.1 37.5 34.8 36.6 38.2 37.1 36.6 38.2 41.6 39.2 38.1 36.4 37.2 38.3 For more than 1 year 32.3 31.5 42.8 31.1 33.4 38.1 41.8 44.0 47.2 48.7 48.6 49.6 33.3 34.4 36.9 Those receiving benefits 14.4 27.4 30.0 28.6 30.8 31.6 29.3 29.3 29.7 39.7 36.4 34.9 30.3 31.2 32.2 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 6.7 9.1 10.7 9.4 10.1 10.6 10.5 10.5 11.3 12.3 12.2 11.5 10.1 10.3 10.6 Male 5.6 8.3 10.1 8.5 9.3 10.1 9.9 9.7 10.7 12.0 11.9 10.9 9.3 9.6 10.0 Female 8.1 10.2 11.6 10.4 11.1 11.3 11.3 11.5 12.1 12.6 12.5 12.3 11.2 11.2 11.4 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE -2.2 30.4 13.3 1.9 8.3 2.2 -0.7 -0.3 12.1 3.9 -6.9 0.0 0.9 1.2 2.9 New unemployed first-job seekers 12.5 17.0 16.8 3.0 8.1 2.9 2.4 2.8 8.7 3.2 2.0 2.7 1.3 0.9 1.0 Redundancies 53.0 90.5 83.5 19.9 23.2 19.9 16.6 18.5 28.6 24.4 16.8 18.7 7.9 6.8 8.6 Registered unemployed who found employment 41.7 48.6 57.0 14.2 13.1 14.2 12.8 15.5 14.5 17.5 17.2 13.4 4.8 3.9 5.0 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 26.1 28.5 29.9 6.9 9.9 6.3 6.9 6.0 10.7 6.2 8.5 8.0 3.6 2.5 1.7 REGISTERED VACANCIES3 240.5 161.3 174.6 41.9 39.0 37.9 44.3 45.9 46.5 45.5 52.9 52.3 11.7 11.6 12.7 For a fixed term, in % 74.5 78.1 80.7 80.8 78.6 78.9 81.2 82.2 80.0 81.5 81.0 82.8 80.1 77.7 77.2 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 51.5 54.9 41.6 53.0 47.3 44.1 42.1 40.7 39.4 38.0 35.5 34.7 47.2 45.8 44.8 As % of labour force 5.5 5.8 4.4 5.6 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.1 3.8 3.7 5.0 4.9 4.8 NEW JOBS 162.7 111.4 104.1 28.2 28.3 23.6 25.1 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.3 26.3 8.9 7.6 8.9 Sources of data: SORS, PDII, ESS. Notes: 'In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. Data for previous years dating back to January 2000 have also been calculated according to the new methodology. ^Estimated by IMAD, based on data by PDII and ESS; 3According to ESS. 2010 2011 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 935.8 935.8 938.6 937.3 937.5 934.3 933.0 934.1 938.2 937.2 929.0 936.0 937.3 937.1 938.4 937.7 936.3 931.7 930.0 931.5 935.3 836.0 836.9 839.3 838.9 839.3 835.9 834.0 836.2 835.5 833.4 819.0 820.9 821.7 823.1 826.9 829.0 829.2 824.2 823.0 824.5 824.4 31.9 31.9 34.6 34.6 34.7 34.1 34.0 34.0 33.3 33.3 33.1 38.0 38.0 38.1 40.1 40.1 40.1 38.9 38.8 38.8 38.1 290.6 290.7 289.9 289.2 288.6 287.9 286.5 286.6 285.8 283.9 276.0 274.4 273.6 273.1 273.5 274.7 274.4 272.6 272.8 272.7 273.5 189.9 190.0 189.7 189.4 189.0 188.5 187.7 188.1 188.4 187.9 184.1 183.9 184.3 184.3 184.3 185.1 184.6 183.8 184.0 185.2 186.8 80.7 80.5 80.1 79.5 79.3 79.1 78.6 78.2 77.1 75.8 72.1 70.7 69.5 68.9 69.1 69.4 69.4 68.4 68.4 67.0 66.2 513.5 514.4 514.7 515.1 516.1 514.0 513.4 515.7 516.4 516.1 509.9 508.5 510.1 511.9 513.3 514.3 514.7 512.7 511.4 513.1 512.8 51.8 52.0 52.3 52.3 52.4 52.2 52.1 52.1 52.0 52.0 51.5 51.2 51.2 51.2 51.5 51.6 51.6 51.4 51.5 51.2 51.3 115.9 116.4 116.7 116.8 116.9 115.8 115.6 117.5 117.9 118.5 117.7 117.3 117.8 118.3 118.6 118.9 119.0 118.2 118.1 119.3 119.8 749.8 750.9 750.9 750.8 751.3 748.1 745.7 747.3 746.8 744.6 730.5 727.3 727.8 729.0 730.5 732.5 732.6 729.0 728.1 729.7 730.1 686.9 688.3 688.5 688.6 689.1 686.3 684.4 686.4 686.2 684.8 673.0 670.7 671.3 672.1 672.9 674.3 674.4 671.1 670.5 672.2 672.7 62.8 62.7 62.4 62.2 62.1 61.8 61.3 61.0 60.5 59.8 57.6 56.6 56.6 56.9 57.6 58.2 58.2 57.9 57.5 57.4 57.4 86.3 86.0 88.4 88.0 88.1 87.8 88.3 88.9 88.8 88.8 88.5 93.5 93.8 94.1 96.4 96.5 96.6 95.1 95.0 94.8 94.3 99.8 98.9 99.3 98.4 98.2 98.4 99.0 97.9 102.7 103.8 110.0 115.1 115.6 113.9 111.6 108.6 107.1 107.6 107.0 107.0 110.9 47.0 46.6 47.0 46.7 46.8 47.5 48.1 47.7 49.8 49.5 51.2 53.2 53.2 52.4 51.8 50.7 50.2 50.9 51.0 51.3 53.5 14.7 14.3 14.1 13.4 13.0 12.6 12.5 12.2 15.7 15.1 14.4 14.7 14.7 14.1 13.4 12.5 11.9 11.5 11.1 11.2 13.6 29.7 29.7 30.1 30.3 30.5 30.9 31.1 31.3 31.7 33.0 38.9 40.2 40.2 39.9 39.4 39.1 38.8 38.9 38.8 38.4 38.2 38.4 37.9 37.6 37.1 36.7 36.4 36.6 36.7 37.2 37.5 39.9 41.6 41.9 41.2 40.1 39.1 38.4 38.1 37.9 38.3 38.7 37.9 39.4 40.6 41.8 42.9 43.2 44.1 44.6 46.7 47.5 47.4 48.6 49.0 48.7 48.8 48.6 48.5 48.8 49.6 50.4 51.8 31.7 30.9 29.9 29.2 28.9 29.0 29.4 29.4 28.2 29.7 31.2 39.2 40.2 39.8 37.5 36.4 35.3 35.2 35.1 34.4 n.p. 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 10.9 11.1 11.8 12.3 12.3 12.2 11.9 11.6 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.9 10.1 10.0 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.7 10.1 10.4 11.4 12.0 12.0 11.9 11.5 11.2 11.0 11.0 10.9 10.8 11.1 11.3 11.2 11.3 11.2 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.5 12.0 11.9 12.4 12.7 12.7 12.5 12.3 12.1 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.7 0.2 -0.9 0.4 -0.9 -0.2 0.2 0.6 -1.1 4.8 1.1 6.2 5.1 0.5 -1.7 -2.4 -2.9 -1.6 0.5 -0.6 0.1 3.9 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.4 6.3 1.4 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.4 4.4 5.4 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.4 6.1 5.7 6.7 7.1 8.2 13.2 11.8 6.0 6.6 5.4 5.6 5.7 6.4 5.7 6.6 6.9 4.0 5.1 3.9 4.7 4.2 4.8 4.0 6.8 4.8 4.9 4.7 5.8 4.9 6.8 6.0 6.3 4.9 4.0 4.1 5.4 4.4 2.0 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.8 2.4 3.8 3.6 3.3 2.2 1.6 2.4 2.5 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.9 2.5 3.1 11.7 13.5 14.5 13.7 16.1 15.2 14.9 15.8 17.4 14.7 14.3 15.2 14.3 16.0 15.7 17.8 19.3 15.5 17.2 19.5 15.8 79.9 79.7 82.2 81.8 79.8 81.1 83.0 82.6 81.4 80.4 78.1 80.9 81.7 81.8 81.5 82.1 79.3 80.9 83.5 83.9 84.0 44.2 43.3 42.9 42.1 41.4 40.7 40.8 40.7 40.2 39.4 38.5 38.3 38.1 37.7 37.4 34.6 34.5 34.5 34.7 34.9 34.5 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 7.0 7.7 8.9 7.8 8.4 8.2 6.6 13.0 10.9 8.8 7.8 10.0 7.6 9.6 9.4 9.2 8.7 7.6 6.5 12.3 11.9 WAGES AND INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS 2008 2009 2010 2009 2010 2011 2009 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 7 8 9 10 11 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, y-o-y growth rates, % Activity - Total 8.3 3.4 3.9 2.3 1.7 3.7 4.3 4.2 3.3 3.1 2.0 1.7 3.8 0.7 2.4 1.7 1.3 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 9.1 -0.2 5.8 -0.5 -2.9 3.3 5.2 7.4 6.9 7.1 4.2 1.1 -0.4 -0.3 -0.7 -5.5 -0.9 B Mining and quarrying 13.4 0.9 4.0 1.6 -4.9 3.4 4.7 1.9 6.0 3.6 0.3 5.8 2.3 6.2 -3.5 -20.3 16.1 C Manufacturing 7.5 0.8 9.0 0.4 3.7 10.1 10.0 8.7 6.8 5.4 3.6 3.5 0.1 -0.6 1.6 1.9 4.6 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 9.5 3.8 3.7 5.1 -3.2 4.7 2.4 3.6 4.4 1.6 5.2 3.5 5.6 2.9 6.7 -10.4 -8.6 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 7.8 2.0 2.2 1.2 0.1 2.7 3.0 2.0 1.3 -0.1 1.5 1.1 1.6 1.2 0.9 -3.3 2.1 F Constrution 7.5 1.0 4.4 1.6 0.9 2.9 5.8 4.1 5.2 5.5 1.5 0.3 2.9 0.6 1.4 -1.4 1.1 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 7.7 1.9 3.7 1.2 0.1 2.6 4.1 4.3 3.9 3.2 2.6 2.3 1.6 1.5 0.6 0.4 -0.8 H Transportation and storage 8.4 0.7 2.0 0.5 -1.4 1.1 1.2 2.5 3.1 2.3 3.0 3.9 2.0 -4.8 4.4 -1.0 -3.3 I Accommodation and food service activities 8.3 1.6 4.0 0.6 1.0 2.8 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.7 2.4 2.0 1.4 0.6 -0.2 -0.3 3.2 J Information and communication 7.3 1.4 2.6 0.8 -1.6 1.0 2.5 3.4 3.5 1.0 1.2 1.8 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.7 -3.6 K Financial and insurance activities 6.0 -0.7 1.0 0.3 -0.5 1.2 3.2 2.6 -2.6 2.3 2.4 0.8 2.0 0.5 -1.7 6.3 -1.8 L Real estate activities 6.0 1.9 3.0 1.8 4.5 2.6 5.3 2.9 1.0 4.1 2.9 3.4 1.9 1.4 2.0 4.2 5.3 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 8.4 2.1 1.6 1.5 0.0 1.6 1.8 2.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 -0.6 2.0 1.1 1.3 0.4 0.6 N Administrative and support service activities 9.6 1.8 4.1 -0.2 -0.6 2.5 4.3 4.6 4.8 4.3 3.2 3.9 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -1.0 -1.8 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 12.2 5.9 -0.6 2.5 0.5 -1.9 -1.1 0.4 0.3 1.2 0.6 -0.1 5.3 -0.3 2.6 1.1 -2.0 P Education 7.0 3.6 0.6 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.7 -0.1 -0.3 2.9 -1.7 2.6 1.8 0.0 Q Human health and social work activities 12.0 12.0 -0.3 5.5 1.4 -0.4 -1.0 0.3 -0.3 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 16.0 0.4 1.7 2.4 0.8 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 5.3 3.9 0.5 2.2 0.9 0.7 1.4 1.2 -1.2 -0.2 -1.2 -1.0 5.8 0.1 1.1 3.2 -0.5 S Other service activities 8.2 1.3 4.2 0.7 0.0 3.2 4.9 5.5 3.3 2.7 1.5 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.3 -0.4 -0.4 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate,1 nominal 0.5 0.4 -1.7 0.3 1.8 -0.3 -1.9 -2.3 -2.2 -1.3 0.6 0.6 -0.1 0.2 0.9 2.2 2.3 Real (relative consumer prices) 2.8 0.7 -1.4 0.2 2.3 -0.3 -1.4 -1.7 -2.3 -1.9 -0.3 -0.9 -0.4 0.2 0.9 2.1 3.3 Real (relative producer prices)2 0.8 2.9 -2.8 3.7 1.4 -2.4 -3.3 -2.9 -2.8 -2.1 -0.7 -1.0 4.1 3.1 3.8 3.9 1.6 USD/EUR 1.471 1.393 1.327 1.431 1.478 1.384 1.273 1.291 1.359 1.367 1.439 1.413 1.409 1.427 1.456 1.482 1.491 Sources of data: SORS, AP, BS, ECB, OECD Main Economic Indicators; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 'Relative to 17 trading partners; weights are the shares of individual trading partners in Slovenian exports and imports of goods within manufacturing (5-8 SITC) in 2001-2003; exports are double weighted; a rise in the index value indicates an appreciation of domestic currency and vice versa. ^Industrial producer prices in manufacturing activities. 2009 2010 2011 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2.1 2.2 3.6 5.2 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.0 5.1 3.6 2.7 4.1 3.1 3.3 4.3 1.7 1.4 2.8 2.0 1.3 2.5 1.4 1.5 -2.5 1.1 3.0 5.7 5.6 4.3 5.6 7.1 8.6 6.6 5.6 5.9 9.3 7.7 8.0 5.7 2.5 6.8 3.4 -1.5 3.8 1.1 0.2 -8.7 2.0 3.5 4.7 1.4 14.0 -0.8 0.8 1.8 3.1 -0.4 0.8 18.6 3.4 0.4 6.8 9.0 -5.8 -1.4 6.4 4.3 6.6 9.7 4.3 6.7 8.3 15.2 10.7 10.1 9.4 8.1 11.0 7.0 5.1 8.3 6.8 5.6 10.1 1.0 1.9 5.2 3.8 1.8 5.2 3.4 2.8 12.1 3.5 6.6 4.3 3.3 0.8 3.0 1.6 6.5 2.7 -3.4 13.0 1.6 -0.2 1.2 3.7 1.6 7.2 6.8 3.6 4.7 2.2 3.7 1.1 0.0 3.0 5.1 3.5 3.6 2.0 1.6 2.9 1.5 -1.2 3.3 1.5 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 -1.1 3.4 2.3 -1.2 3.3 1.1 2.2 2.9 1.0 2.9 4.6 7.2 5.8 4.5 2.1 6.5 3.8 5.6 5.6 4.4 6.1 6.4 4.2 -0.5 1.6 3.4 -0.9 0.9 0.8 -0.5 0.6 0.3 2.4 5.2 4.2 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.5 2.9 3.8 4.3 1.5 2.2 2.4 3.3 2.0 3.2 1.7 2.4 0.5 -1.5 1.8 3.2 1.5 1.6 0.5 1.8 3.4 2.3 2.6 4.0 2.7 2.7 3.4 0.8 1.5 2.0 5.4 9.6 4.0 -1.5 3.5 0.0 2.2 1.8 4.4 3.7 4.2 4.6 4.0 4.1 5.5 5.1 4.1 4.3 5.1 5.6 3.5 2.8 1.7 2.6 1.3 3.3 1.6 0.6 -1.6 0.0 1.6 1.5 2.3 3.1 2.1 2.9 4.3 3.1 1.1 5.9 3.3 2.1 1.4 -0.6 1.2 1.7 0.5 -0.3 2.5 3.1 1.2 -5.1 1.0 1.6 1.1 2.5 -0.6 7.6 5.0 1.2 1.5 -4.1 -4.6 1.4 5.2 1.6 0.3 2.6 9.0 -4.0 -1.7 3.2 0.9 -0.6 4.0 1.8 3.3 2.7 3.7 3.9 8.4 4.1 3.1 1.5 0.8 2.3 -0.4 3.0 2.9 6.5 2.2 4.4 2.3 2.0 4.7 3.4 1.7 -0.9 1.0 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.5 2.1 1.7 3.9 1.3 -0.2 1.4 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 -0.3 -1.2 0.2 -0.9 0.5 1.1 -1.2 4.1 4.7 5.1 4.1 3.9 3.8 5.3 4.6 5.5 5.7 3.1 5.3 4.5 3.0 2.9 2.8 3.8 3.5 3.1 5.2 2.4 2.4 -1.1 -1.5 -3.0 -2.1 -0.6 -0.5 0.9 -0.1 0.3 1.3 0.6 -0.9 0.5 1.0 2.2 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 -0.6 -1.3 -0.1 0.5 0.5 -0.4 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.7 1.2 1.2 0.6 1.2 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 0.1 1.0 1.0 -1.6 1.2 -0.6 -2.3 -0.2 -0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 -1.2 -1.4 -0.7 -0.5 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.1 -1.0 -0.5 -0.5 -0.1 0.5 0.6 1.0 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.5 -2.2 0.0 -1.5 -0.6 -0.3 0.3 -1.6 -2.1 0.1 -0.2 -1.2 -1.4 1.6 0.6 3.4 2.2 4.1 6.1 3.9 4.7 6.0 5.9 4.5 5.4 3.7 1.0 2.5 3.8 1.7 0.0 2.4 2.0 -1.0 1.6 1.1 0.0 0.9 0.4 -0.3 -1.1 -1.1 -1.9 -2.7 -2.1 -2.3 -2.5 -2.0 -2.2 -2.5 -2.1 -1.2 -0.6 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.5 -0.3 1.5 0.5 -0.1 -1.1 -0.4 -1.4 -2.2 -1.6 -1.4 -2.0 -1.8 -2.5 -2.5 -2.4 -2.1 -1.1 -0.8 0.0 -0.2 -1.1 -1.1 -0.3 -0.4 -1.0 -1.9 -2.1 -3.2 -3.8 -2.9 -3.2 -2.9 -2.5 -3.2 -2.8 -2.4 -3.2 -2.7 -1.9 -1.6 -0.7 -1.1 -0.2 -1.1 -0.7 -1.1 -1.9 1.461 1.427 1.369 1.357 1.341 1.257 1.221 1.277 1.2894 1.3067 1.390 1.366 1.322 1.336 1.365 1.400 1.444 1.435 1.439 1.426 1.434 1.377 1.371 PRICES 2008 2009 2010 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 9 10 11 12 1 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 5.7 0.9 1.8 -0.2 1.1 1.4 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.3 -0.1 0.0 1.6 1.8 1.5 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 10.1 0.6 1.0 -0.7 -1.0 -1.4 0.7 2.6 2.0 3.9 5.0 3.7 -0.4 -1.2 -0.8 -1.1 -2.4 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 3.2 6.7 7.2 8.5 7.9 7.1 6.5 7.3 8.1 8.1 6.3 3.7 7.7 7.7 8.1 8.0 7.9 Clothing and footwear 4.4 -0.6 -1.9 -2.2 -3.0 -5.0 -1.9 -0.6 -0.4 -0.7 -2.4 -4.2 -3.6 -2.7 -2.8 -3.4 -5.9 Housing, water, electricity, gas 9.7 -0.3 10.2 -3.5 3.0 8.3 11.3 12.0 9.0 6.8 5.4 4.8 -2.2 -1.7 4.5 6.3 7.6 Furnishings, household equipment 5.8 4.0 1.4 3.5 1.9 1.3 0.8 1.3 2.1 2.7 3.9 2.4 2.5 2.1 2.2 1.5 1.8 Medical, pharmaceutical products 2.9 4.0 2.1 1.4 0.7 -0.6 0.6 4.0 4.6 2.9 2.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 1.3 0.3 -0.3 Transport 1.9 -3.0 -0.3 -4.1 0.6 1.2 -0.1 -1.8 -0.5 0.8 0.5 1.1 -3.1 -2.8 1.9 2.9 2.3 Communications 0.6 -4.1 1.4 -4.3 -3.2 0.0 1.4 1.3 2.8 2.7 1.6 2.3 -4.6 -3.7 -4.0 -1.9 -0.6 Recreation and culture 4.4 3.0 0.4 2.8 2.5 1.2 0.4 -0.2 0.1 -2.6 -1.0 -1.7 2.7 3.1 2.7 1.7 1.7 Education 5.2 3.4 1.6 2.7 2.7 2.0 1.9 1.6 0.8 1.7 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.4 Catering services 9.6 4.4 -2.5 4.0 2.7 1.9 1.9 -2.9 -11.0 -11.0 -10.9 -6.2 3.3 3.1 2.3 2.6 2.0 Miscellaneous goods & services 3.9 3.8 1.4 4.4 3.9 2.3 2.0 0.5 0.7 1.4 2.3 2.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 3.6 3.3 HCPI 5.5 0.9 2.1 -0.2 1.4 1.7 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.5 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.1 1.8 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) 4.6 1.9 0.3 1.2 0.7 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.1 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total 3.8 -1.3 2.1 -3.1 -1.8 -1.0 2.3 3.4 3.8 5.7 4.8 4.1 -2.8 -2.4 -1.9 -1.2 -1.4 Domestic market 5.6 -0.4 2.0 -1.5 -1.1 0.2 2.0 2.8 3.2 4.5 4.1 3.7 -1.6 -1.4 -1.1 -0.7 -0.1 Non-domestic market 2.2 -2.2 2.2 -4.5 -2.5 -2.1 2.6 4.0 4.4 6.9 5.5 4.6 -4.0 -3.2 -2.6 -1.7 -2.8 euro area 2.2 -3.5 2.2 -6.0 -3.0 -2.4 2.5 4.0 4.8 8.2 6.5 5.1 -4.8 -3.9 -2.8 -2.3 -3.0 non-euro area 2.1 0.3 2.1 -1.7 -1.6 -1.6 2.7 3.8 3.5 4.0 3.1 3.5 -2.4 -1.9 -2.3 -0.6 -2.4 Import price indices 1.3 -3.3 7.4 -4.7 -1.8 4.0 8.8 7.8 8.9 8.9 5.5 4.5 -4.5 -3.7 -2.1 0.4 3.3 PRICE CONTROL,1 y-o-y growth rates, % Energy prices 12.4 -12.3 16.5 -17.3 0.4 16.1 18.8 15.9 15.3 15.1 9.9 8.3 -13.9 -12.6 3.8 13.0 16.9 Oil products 11.7 -12.0 17.3 -15.9 6.2 21.9 20.3 13.5 14.6 15.7 10.5 9.9 -11.5 -9.4 10.3 21.9 24.4 Basic utilities 0.6 3.6 - 0.8 10.8 - - - - - - - 0.8 0.8 16.3 15.4 - Transport & communications -0.4 0.6 1.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Other controlled prices 1.8 4.9 1.3 5.6 4.9 4.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 Direct control - total 8.6 -6.9 14.2 -10.9 2.9 14.1 16.1 14.4 12.2 7.2 1.5 0.5 -8.6 -7.6 6.0 11.8 14.6 Source of data: SORS, calculations and estimates IMAD. Note: 'The structure of groups varies, data published are not directly comparable to those published previously. The electricity market was liberalized on 1 July 2007. Data from July 2007 onwards are not comparable. Since July 2009, formation of prices for utility services is no longer under government control. 2010 2011 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1.3 1.4 2.3 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.4 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.9 1.7 2.2 1.3 0.9 0.9 2.1 2.7 2.7 -1.2 -0.7 -0.1 0.4 1.7 2.8 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.9 2.2 3.7 4.1 3.9 4.2 6.3 4.6 2.9 3.8 4.4 5.6 4.8 7.6 5.9 9.9 5.1 4.5 5.2 8.2 8.5 8.2 8.0 8.1 7.8 8.3 8.3 6.3 6.4 6.2 5.4 2.8 3.0 4.8 4.9 -5.7 -3.6 -0.9 -2.4 -2.3 -2.1 -1.7 1.9 -1.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -2.1 -2.8 -1.5 -3.0 -4.2 -4.9 -3.4 2.0 2.1 8.4 8.9 10.7 11.6 11.7 12.4 12.3 11.4 11.7 7.1 8.3 7.4 6.6 6.5 6.3 5.9 3.9 4.4 4.9 5.1 5.5 5.7 1.6 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.5 1.3 2.2 2.0 1.8 2.6 2.4 2.5 3.3 3.5 4.2 3.9 3.5 1.7 2.1 1.8 2.0 -0.7 -0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 2.8 4.0 5.2 5.1 4.4 4.3 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.8 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.4 -1.5 -1.2 -2.0 -2.1 -0.6 -1.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.6 -0.3 0.7 3.5 2.5 2.8 3.2 1.4 3.3 3.3 2.3 1.9 0.5 3.4 2.5 0.9 -1.8 -0.3 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.6 -0.2 -0.6 -0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.4 -0.9 -6.5 -0.4 -0.5 -1.1 -1.3 -1.8 -2.0 -1.2 -0.3 -0.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 0.9 0.4 1.3 0.7 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.5 1.8 0.9 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.2 -11.2 -10.9 -11.0 -11.1 -11.1 -11.1 -10.9 -11.2 -10.9 -10.5 -10.2 -9.8 2.7 2.0 2.0 2.3 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.0 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.2 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.7 2.4 2.5 1.6 1.8 2.7 2.4 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.1 2.1 1.6 2.2 2.3 2.0 2.4 2.0 2.4 1.6 1.1 1.2 2.3 2.9 2.8 -0.1 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 1.9 2.3 2.5 -1.2 -0.2 1.0 2.9 3.0 3.4 3.5 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.2 5.2 5.9 6.0 5.7 4.2 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.7 3.6 0.1 0.5 0.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.5 4.0 4.8 4.8 5.0 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.1 2.9 -2.5 -0.9 1.3 3.2 3.3 4.2 4.1 3.6 3.9 4.5 4.9 6.4 7.1 7.2 6.4 4.9 5.1 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.3 4.3 -3.1 -1.0 1.3 3.2 3.1 4.5 4.1 3.4 4.1 4.8 5.6 7.5 8.6 8.6 7.9 5.8 5.8 4.8 5.2 5.2 4.4 4.7 -1.5 -0.8 1.4 3.2 3.6 3.4 4.1 4.0 3.2 3.6 3.6 4.0 3.6 4.2 3.0 2.8 3.6 4.1 3.2 3.2 4.1 3.5 3.2 5.4 8.3 9.4 8.7 7.6 7.9 7.7 7.6 8.9 10.3 10.4 8.5 7.9 6.3 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.8 4.3 4.1 3.0 13.9 17.5 20.1 20.5 15.8 17.4 15.6 14.6 18.2 12.2 15.7 15.5 15.6 14.3 12.0 9.7 7.9 6.3 9.1 9.6 10.8 9.6 18.6 22.8 22.7 22.8 15.6 15.2 13.2 12.1 16.6 11.6 15.6 15.8 16.3 15.2 12.7 10.2 8.7 7.7 10.8 11.3 12.3 11.3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 4.9 4.9 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 12.6 15.2 16.7 17.2 14.4 15.5 14.3 13.5 15.9 9.2 11.8 11.8 5.4 4.5 3.0 1.5 0.1 -1.0 1.1 1.4 2.2 1.4 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2008 2009 2010 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 qH Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 10 11 12 1 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, in EUR m Current account -2,574 -456 -297 -268 -10 -4 -118 -84 -91 -54 69 -85 -37 99 -72 30 Goods1 -2,648 -703 -1,205 -230 -287 -190 -273 -234 -508 -307 -264 -294 -50 -79 -158 -25 Exports 20,032 16,167 18,386 3,950 4,219 4,205 4,695 4,640 4,847 5,020 5,342 5,118 1,499 1,471 1,248 1,228 Imports 22,680 16,870 19,591 4,180 4,506 4,394 4,968 4,874 5,355 5,327 5,607 5,412 1,549 1,550 1,406 1,253 Services 1,424 1,165 1,308 258 303 291 356 346 315 353 442 401 130 95 78 99 Exports 4,957 4,347 4,633 1,222 1,104 981 1,129 1,348 1,176 1,084 1,225 1,430 384 333 387 315 Imports 3,533 3,182 3,325 964 800 690 773 1,001 861 732 783 1,029 254 238 308 216 Income -1,062 -766 -507 -235 -107 -51 -158 -202 -95 -147 -140 -188 -62 18 -62 -17 Receipts 1,262 666 682 137 221 135 194 168 185 213 237 220 45 107 70 42 Expenditure 2,324 1,432 1,188 372 328 186 353 370 280 360 377 408 107 89 132 59 Current transfers -287 -152 106 -61 81 -53 -43 6 196 47 32 -4 -55 65 70 -27 Receipts 887 966 1,218 177 377 263 220 274 461 374 316 307 61 149 167 65 Expenditure 1,174 1,118 1,112 238 296 317 263 268 265 328 284 311 116 84 97 93 Capital and financial account 2,605 154 319 211 80 -19 253 190 -106 87 -289 -117 75 -50 54 5 Capital account -25 -9 8 -4 -42 46 3 16 -56 -7 -6 -7 1 25 -67 -7 Financial account 2,631 164 311 215 121 -65 251 174 -50 94 -283 -110 75 -75 121 12 Direct investment 346 -644 334 -36 -86 -132 74 57 335 74 252 218 -30 -81 25 -37 Domestic abroad -983 -174 60 22 -20 -51 59 19 32 0 37 56 -29 35 -26 16 Foreign in Slovenia 1,329 -470 274 -58 -66 -81 15 37 303 73 214 162 -2 -115 51 -54 Portfolio investment 572 4,628 1,947 2,293 310 1,106 508 -54 388 2,591 -314 -419 -14 -71 394 1,357 Financial derivatives 46 -2 -117 12 -2 -22 -65 -14 -15 -80 -15 -12 3 3 -7 -2 Other investment 1,645 -3,985 -1,872 -2,041 -120 -1,077 -216 167 -746 -2,500 -218 71 109 63 -292 -1,356 Assets -333 -277 683 -976 105 241 -594 531 504 -1,569 -206 -395 213 -403 295 172 Commercial credits -142 416 -174 -35 226 -223 -213 30 232 -320 -88 45 -69 -32 327 0 Loans -325 -1 164 -39 46 -348 510 20 -18 -101 -22 51 -1 35 13 -24 Currency and deposits 130 -613 609 -913 -68 815 -885 387 292 -1,152 -97 -458 281 -407 59 203 Other assets 4 -80 84 11 -99 -2 -6 94 -2 6 2 -33 3 2 -104 -6 Liabilities 1,978 -3,708 -2,555 -1,065 -226 -1,319 378 -364 -1,250 -931 -13 466 -105 465 -587 -1,528 Commercial credits -73 -452 364 24 -75 91 262 -63 73 199 -13 -83 89 82 -246 -89 Loans 1,869 -2,911 -974 -78 -973 -403 -189 -8 -373 -386 -298 209 -160 33 -846 -39 Deposits 190 -318 -1,934 -983 822 -1,079 358 -305 -909 -787 334 340 -36 358 500 -1,394 Other liabilities -7 -27 -11 -28 0 72 -54 12 -42 42 -36 1 2 -8 5 -6 International reserves2 21 167 19 -13 20 62 -50 18 -11 9 12 33 8 11 1 51 Statistical error -31 302 -21 58 -70 22 -135 -106 197 -33 220 202 -38 -49 18 -35 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods 2,241 1,783 1,811 407 473 403 456 442 510 440 507 497 167 154 151 116 Intermediate goods 10,760 8,090 9,951 2,025 2,093 2,235 2,542 2,544 2,630 2,841 3,042 2,970 782 730 581 657 Consumer goods 6,808 6,144 6,481 1,482 1,620 1,533 1,663 1,620 1,664 1,699 1,740 1,596 540 578 502 445 Import of investment goods 3,441 2,288 2,293 521 633 450 612 570 661 555 608 576 218 208 207 122 Intermediate goods 13,735 9,823 12,117 2,458 2,649 2,711 3,064 3,032 3,311 3,438 3,512 3,417 913 937 799 794 Consumer goods 5,870 5,004 5,470 1,255 1,292 1,290 1,355 1,351 1,475 1,378 1,508 1,500 447 433 413 362 Sources of data: BS, SORS. Notes: 'Exports and imports (F.O.B.) include also the adjustment for exports and imports of goods by ITRS and duty-free shops reports. 2Reserve assets of the BS. 2010 2011 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 -112 78 -27 -87 -5 -21 -58 -6 -41 -57 7 -6 -95 46 40 -76 106 41 -122 -4 49 -121 -44 -99 -147 -27 -45 -122 -68 -155 -151 -202 -71 -116 -119 -95 -170 1 -8 -166 -120 -67 1,328 1,649 1,468 1,566 1,661 1,604 1,306 1,729 1,656 1,700 1,491 1,534 1,602 1,884 1,694 1,836 1,813 1,735 1,490 1,893 1,767 1,448 1,693 1,567 1,713 1,688 1,649 1,428 1,797 1,811 1,850 1,693 1,605 1,718 2,003 1,789 2,005 1,812 1,743 1,656 2,013 1,834 84 107 119 125 113 88 115 143 132 87 97 123 94 136 162 136 144 90 135 176 174 302 363 373 370 386 462 448 437 394 356 426 353 326 405 414 392 418 478 479 473 431 218 256 254 245 274 374 333 295 262 269 330 230 233 269 252 256 275 387 344 298 257 -24 -11 -28 -39 -91 -90 -57 -56 -28 -36 -31 -55 -55 -37 -53 -41 -46 -59 -65 -64 -62 40 53 58 72 64 65 52 51 54 52 80 61 63 88 70 85 82 77 70 72 71 64 64 85 112 156 155 108 106 81 88 110 117 118 125 123 126 128 136 135 137 132 -52 26 -18 -25 0 25 6 -25 9 43 144 -2 -17 66 26 -1 8 18 -25 4 4 85 113 57 83 80 117 89 68 103 125 234 84 129 161 114 104 98 116 70 120 101 136 87 75 108 80 92 83 93 93 82 90 86 147 95 88 105 91 99 96 116 96 35 -59 88 5 160 142 -40 88 59 -236 71 -151 57 181 10 21 -320 2 -38 -82 -301 -2 55 2 -3 4 -8 -4 27 3 4 -63 -9 1 1 -2 0 -4 -7 -4 3 -2 37 -114 86 8 157 149 -36 61 56 -240 134 -141 56 180 12 21 -316 9 -34 -85 -299 -72 -23 -26 19 81 89 36 -68 74 213 47 -83 -13 169 98 97 56 17 74 128 -36 -54 -14 -11 29 41 8 25 -14 -8 36 5 -57 22 35 -7 7 37 -57 42 71 -55 -18 -9 -15 -11 41 80 11 -54 82 178 43 -26 -34 134 106 90 19 74 31 57 20 -446 195 609 -202 100 78 -29 -103 68 182 138 1,136 -207 1,661 -360 271 -224 72 -48 -444 144 -2 -19 -11 -21 -33 -5 -4 -5 -8 -4 -4 -29 -31 -20 -5 -5 -5 0 0 -12 -2 550 -271 -518 272 31 -9 -34 211 -97 -615 -34 -1,176 288 -1,612 266 -343 -141 -68 -75 214 -391 44 25 -24 -631 61 697 -203 37 -168 -624 1,296 -1,056 337 -850 60 -99 -167 -511 -33 149 -370 -42 -182 -37 -88 -87 -6 195 -158 -102 -68 402 -217 29 -132 -84 30 -35 -40 200 -116 -131 19 -343 415 25 70 127 18 -124 -33 -3 18 -51 4 -55 14 -16 -19 -19 29 41 -50 62 551 -409 -554 78 568 -488 308 -20 -547 858 -779 311 -685 119 -109 -107 -438 -244 223 -198 5 -1 7 -13 0 9 73 12 -13 -5 17 -9 -7 22 11 -3 -6 -14 -19 0 9 506 -296 -494 902 -30 -705 168 173 71 8 -1,330 -119 -49 -763 206 -244 26 442 -42 66 -21 69 112 54 127 82 -30 -182 149 135 61 -123 -43 61 181 142 8 -164 -9 -262 188 14 -18 -346 -279 328 -238 -40 -21 53 -240 242 -375 -109 -86 -190 -213 -226 141 242 -41 8 -200 448 -133 -206 455 109 -607 348 -46 180 -288 -801 3 -8 -781 274 -26 86 202 237 -99 158 6 72 -63 -8 17 -28 23 17 -5 -7 -30 30 -15 27 2 0 -38 7 25 -31 7 7 4 32 -60 -23 -3 -4 25 19 -16 -13 10 17 -18 13 1 -2 -12 15 29 -15 77 -20 -62 82 -155 -121 97 -82 -18 293 -79 156 38 -227 -50 55 215 -43 159 86 251 120 167 142 155 158 159 125 159 164 170 176 126 141 173 153 180 174 174 153 170 N/A 725 853 803 856 883 878 713 952 920 927 783 888 904 1,050 977 1,042 1,023 998 893 1,079 N/A 473 615 513 543 607 554 458 607 558 591 515 509 544 646 548 594 598 546 426 624 N/A 149 180 213 218 180 179 148 243 188 226 247 148 173 234 183 221 204 204 163 210 N/A 906 1,010 956 1,068 1,040 1,039 888 1,106 1,153 1,128 1,030 1,032 1,106 1,299 1,129 1,238 1,145 1,107 1,044 1,267 N/A 395 533 430 462 463 452 420 479 496 536 443 421 451 505 470 551 487 468 476 556 N/A MONETARY INDICATORS AND INTEREST RATES 2008 2009 2010 2009 2010 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 68 160 138 151 167 166 161 161 160 176 177 140 140 142 Central government (S. 1311) 2,162 3,497 3,419 3,456 3,427 3,610 3,625 3,581 3,497 3,334 3,382 2,884 2,897 3,001 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 212 376 526 257 262 281 305 336 376 390 395 390 392 395 Households (S. 14, 15) 7,827 8,413 9,282 8,055 8,135 8,231 8,295 8,345 8,413 8,452 8,480 8,601 8,647 8,701 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 21,149 21,704 21,646 21,557 21,671 21,704 21,688 21,645 21,704 21,792 21,896 21,950 22,062 21,997 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 2,815 2,680 2,497 2,838 2,868 2,846 2,846 2,772 2,680 2,684 2,669 2,620 2,606 2,558 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 3,666 5,302 5,811 4,382 4,334 4,723 4,563 4,589 5,302 6,141 5,093 5,057 5,555 5,638 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 32,113 34,731 35,994 33,601 33,628 34,045 33,922 33,962 34,731 35,678 34,817 34,893 35,430 35,620 In foreign currency 2,370 1,895 1,843 2,017 2,003 1,969 1,939 1,919 1,895 1,904 1,894 1,887 1,859 1,852 Securities, total 3,346 5,345 5,345 4,925 5,067 5,380 5,460 5,386 5,345 5,211 5,204 4,723 4,871 4,819 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 23,129 27,965 26,767 26,207 25,956 26,950 26,861 26,932 27,965 28,953 28,198 27,716 27,949 28,085 Overnight 6,605 7,200 8,155 6,862 7,011 7,079 6,940 7,028 7,200 7,949 7,139 7,396 7,351 7,732 With agreed maturity -short-term 10,971 10,408 8,193 11,167 10,667 11,332 11,109 10,917 10,408 10,385 10,137 9,233 9,006 8,674 With agreed maturity -long-term 4,157 9,788 10,337 7,630 7,749 8,000 8,257 8,396 9,788 10,042 10,390 10,583 11,067 11,196 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 1,396 569 82 548 529 539 555 591 569 577 532 504 525 483 Deposits in foreign currency, total 490 434 463 480 463 463 458 453 434 426 438 436 450 496 Overnight 215 238 285 239 240 244 242 261 238 240 241 250 270 299 With agreed maturity -short-term 198 141 121 195 178 171 169 142 141 133 137 127 121 130 With agreed maturity -long-term 41 45 55 39 38 43 42 43 45 48 52 55 55 59 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 36 10 2 7 7 5 5 7 10 5 8 4 4 8 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.46 0.28 0.21 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.21 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 4.30 2.51 1.82 2.35 2.27 2.14 2.04 1.97 2.00 1.91 1.75 1.69 1.66 1.72 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 6.77 6.43 5.53 6.74 6.57 6.64 6.74 5.00 6.28 6.11 6.08 5.33 5.80 5.38 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 6.62 6.28 5.75 6.36 6.20 6.66 6.47 5.94 6.06 6.15 6.31 5.64 5.98 6.03 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operation^ 3.8^ 1.2^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.00 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates 4.63 1.23 0.81 0.98 0.86 0.77 0.74 0.72 0.71 0.68 0.66 0.64 0.64 0.69 6-month rates 4.72 1.44 1.08 1.21 1.12 1.04 1.02 0.99 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.96 0.98 LIBOR CHF 3-month rates 2.58 0.37 0.19 0.37 0.34 0.30 0.27 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.19 6-month rates 2.69 0.50 0.27 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.28 Sources of data: BS, BBA - British Bankers' Association. 2010 2011 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 |2|3|4|5|6|7|8|9|10|11 141 140 142 140 139 139 138 132 101 99 76 76 76 76 76 77 76 83 3,120 3,130 3,326 3,422 3,447 3,453 3,419 3,332 3,326 3,409 3,319 3,327 3,282 3,276 3,328 3,355 3,387 3,436 401 415 421 417 434 497 526 538 536 541 532 530 533 534 536 535 541 554 8,897 8,928 9,062 9,119 9,149 9,225 9,282 9,226 9,233 9,276 9,304 9,383 9,425 9,507 9,490 9,468 9,481 9,467 22,015 22,024 21,815 21,862 21,848 21,790 21,646 21,793 21,775 21,772 21,782 21,714 21,725 21,656 21,537 21,369 21,444 21,434 2,525 2,524 2,502 2,488 2,496 2,497 2,497 2,454 2,402 2,372 2,350 2,341 2,325 2,323 2,292 2,298 2,286 2,277 6,120 5,445 5,315 5,399 5,079 5,688 5,811 5,674 5,740 6,504 5,179 5,275 5,259 5,224 5,422 5,375 5,491 5,224 35,929 35,495 35,381 35,616 35,430 35,931 35,994 35,993 36,008 36,712 35,736 35,811 35,836 35,720 35,854 35,763 35,975 35,784 1,915 1,860 1,884 1,828 1,742 1,777 1,843 1,760 1,739 1,691 1,689 1,751 1,724 1,794 1,705 1,628 1,580 1,557 5,234 5,112 5,175 5,263 5,282 5,444 5,345 5,265 5,266 5,470 5,043 5,008 4,990 5,007 5,046 5,008 5,075 5,052 27,929 27,079 27,358 26,819 26,696 27,486 26,767 27,630 27,235 28,129 27,080 27,205 27,384 27,392 27,423 27,337 27,631 27,376 7,976 7,936 8,041 8,031 7,926 8,119 8,155 8,245 8,179 8,799 8,206 8,237 8,259 8,303 8,241 8,236 8,058 8,436 8,377 8,574 8,621 8,096 8,100 8,256 8,193 8,816 8,483 8,724 8,477 8,614 8,615 8,471 8,468 8,369 8,372 7,791 11,401 10,413 10,529 10,532 10,587 11,003 10,337 10,496 10,550 10,583 10,375 10,324 10,470 10,567 10,662 10,683 11,148 11,089 175 156 167 160 83 108 82 73 23 23 22 30 40 51 52 49 53 60 705 462 491 462 456 471 463 452 453 449 444 459 464 488 476 486 494 538 513 280 307 277 286 291 285 282 287 284 286 295 304 317 305 320 329 365 129 122 121 125 113 118 121 115 116 113 107 111 107 113 108 109 109 114 61 58 60 57 55 59 55 53 49 51 50 52 52 57 62 57 55 58 2 2 3 3 2 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0.22 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.26 1.83 1.87 1.82 1.85 1.86 1.88 1.94 2.04 1.98 2.04 2.08 2.15 2.20 2.20 2.18 2.17 2.24 2.27 5.42 5.12 5.33 5.17 5.50 5.43 5.65 5.85 5.17 5.45 5.51 5.42 5.52 5.39 5.49 5.45 5.5 5.43 5.61 5.40 5.84 4.98 5.72 6.00 5.44 5.83 5.45 5.4 5.25 5.82 5.97 6.17 6.48 5.91 4.25 5.20 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.2^ 1.2^ 1.2^ 1.5^ 1.5^ 1.5^ 1.5^ 1.25 0.73 0.85 0.90 0.88 1.00 1.04 1.02 1.02 1.09 1.18 1.32 1.42 1.49 1.60 1.55 1.54 1.58 1.48 1.01 1.10 1.15 1.14 1.22 1.27 1.25 1.25 1.35 1.48 1.62 1.71 1.75 1.82 1.75 1.74 1.78 1.71 0.10 0.13 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.06 0.01 0.04 0.20 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.12 0.05 0.08 - PUBLIC FINANCE 2008 2009 2010 2009 2010 2011 2010 Q3 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 4 1 5 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS-IMF methodology), current prices, EUR m GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 15,339.2 14,408.0 14,794.0 3,558.8 4,023.5 3,310.2 3,477.0 3,649.9 4,356.8 3,600.7 3,826.7 3,667.8 1,083.1 1,146.4 Current revenues 14,792.3 13,639.5 13,771.5 3,470.3 3,642.3 3,157.4 3,366.8 3,462.4 3,784.8 3,364.6 3,638.6 3,490.7 1,062.1 1,113.2 Tax revenues 13,937.4 12,955.4 12,848.4 3,279.0 3,453.0 2,983.4 3,189.2 3,186.0 3,489.9 3,155.9 3,451.0 3,296.0 1,000.9 1,057.0 Taxes on income and profit 3,442.2 2,805.1 2,490.7 735.5 744.8 635.5 594.4 554.5 706.4 635.4 827.7 639.2 108.0 210.0 Social security contributions 5,095.0 5,161.3 5,234.5 1,260.6 1,334.5 1,274.4 1,303.8 1,293.5 1,362.9 1,300.6 1,316.9 1,314.9 437.4 431.5 Taxes on payroll and workforce 258.0 28.5 28.1 6.2 7.7 6.3 7.2 6.5 8.1 6.7 7.6 7.8 2.5 2.2 Taxes on property 214.9 207.0 219.7 74.6 60.2 24.1 58.9 76.7 60.0 24.0 53.8 72.1 9.7 31.2 Domestic taxes on goods and services 4,805.3 4,660.2 4,780.7 1,184.2 1,283.1 1,023.9 1,199.2 1,231.6 1,325.9 1,165.5 1,217.4 1,234.4 434.8 373.4 Taxes on international trade & transactions 120.1 90.5 90.7 17.2 21.7 18.7 24.7 22.5 24.8 23.7 27.6 27.7 8.3 8.4 Other taxes 1.8 2.9 4.0 0.7 1.0 0.5 1.0 0.7 1.8 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.3 Non-tax revenues 854.9 684.1 923.0 191.3 189.3 174.1 177.6 276.5 294.9 208.7 187.6 194.7 61.2 56.2 Capital revenues 117.3 106.5 175.7 19.3 43.5 9.8 17.9 26.1 121.9 7.6 21.6 15.8 7.3 5.3 Grants 10.4 11.1 12.6 1.9 4.7 2.9 2.2 2.5 5.0 2.4 3.0 2.2 0.8 1.0 Transferred revenues 53.9 54.3 109.5 1.1 51.5 0.5 2.3 3.8 102.9 2.3 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.6 Receipts from the EU budget 365.4 596.5 724.7 66.2 281.5 139.6 87.8 155.1 342.2 223.9 163.2 158.6 12.0 26.3 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TOTAL EXPENDITURES 15,441.7 16,368.2 16,692.7 3,767.1 4,659.5 4,035.1 4,122.7 3,948.1 4,586.9 4,190.6 4,158.8 4,107.7 1,322.7 1,464.5 Current expenditures 6,557.5 6,800.8 6,960.4 1,578.1 1,771.3 1,795.2 1,757.3 1,636.9 1,771.0 1,898.2 1,742.3 1,648.8 613.9 594.4 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3,578.9 3,911.9 3,912.4 955.4 985.9 956.4 1,012.5 963.6 980.0 966.5 1,009.8 1,019.1 313.9 377.2 Expenditures on goods and services 2,527.5 2,510.3 2,512.4 603.9 741.4 556.8 624.9 587.7 743.1 585.4 616.1 610.6 193.4 211.9 Interest payments 335.2 336.1 488.2 12.0 29.0 272.6 110.0 76.4 29.2 311.3 108.1 10.7 104.0 1.5 Reserves 116.0 42.5 47.4 6.8 14.9 9.4 9.9 9.2 18.8 35.0 8.2 8.3 2.7 3.9 Current transfers 6,742.2 7,339.4 7,628.5 1,736.9 1,918.2 1,849.0 1,995.1 1,810.9 1,973.6 1,941.9 2,076.1 2,060.8 612.0 753.2 Subsidies 476.5 597.9 581.9 86.5 219.4 160.7 122.8 103.7 194.7 171.2 127.6 109.4 39.7 42.2 Current transfers to individuals and households 5,619.2 6,024.5 6,277.7 1,475.9 1,497.6 1,529.0 1,671.1 1,514.7 1,562.9 1,606.1 1,745.3 1,740.9 510.2 647.4 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 598.3 678.1 728.8 164.5 195.1 150.6 188.6 183.3 206.3 158.8 186.2 192.8 60.2 60.3 Current transfers abroad 48.2 38.9 40.1 9.9 6.1 8.7 12.6 9.1 9.6 5.9 17.0 17.8 1.9 3.2 Capital expenditures 1,255.5 1,294.1 1,310.6 297.5 584.1 192.8 212.5 321.1 584.3 168.8 196.5 220.8 58.6 67.2 Capital transfers 458.6 494.6 396.4 86.0 259.9 47.5 90.1 82.0 176.9 42.4 73.3 94.4 18.6 19.5 Payments to the EU budget 427.9 439.3 396.8 68.7 126.1 150.6 67.8 97.3 81.1 139.3 70.6 82.9 19.6 30.2 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -102.5 -1,960.2 -1,898.7 - - - - - Source of data: MF Bulletin. Note: In line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the general government are not consolidated. * In the "corrected outturn" column, certain categories of revenues that remained on unallocated fund accounts were estimated based on previous months' dynamics. Unallocated funds are a consequence of the introduction of a new DURS information system and the modification of the fiscal revenue payment system on 1 October 2011. 2010 2011 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 10* 1,247.5 1,183.6 1,286.2 1,180.1 1,188.3 1,461.5 1,707.1 1,205.5 1,118.2 1,277.0 1,256.2 1,269.2 1,301.3 1,097.3 1,220.5 1,220.5 1,293.7 1,293.7 1,191.5 1,110.0 1,232.7 1,119.7 1,132.5 1,263.8 1,388.4 1,147.1 1,045.0 1,172.5 1,185.3 1,208.5 1,244.8 1,037.4 1,181.0 1,100.7 1,239.1 1,239.1 1,131.4 1,027.0 1,103.3 1,055.6 1,073.1 1,189.1 1,227.7 1,094.8 950.0 1,111.1 1,131.8 1,141.3 1,177.8 976.9 1,111.6 1,041.2 1,174.0 1,174.0 276.4 114.1 226.9 213.4 218.8 219.0 268.6 215.1 208.1 212.1 294.5 237.9 295.4 106.0 221.0 235.8 103.2 224.1 434.8 432.7 428.8 432.0 434.9 436.4 491.6 437.7 424.6 438.4 438.3 439.6 439.0 436.3 431.5 436.1 172.8 420.0 2.5 2.6 1.9 2.0 2.6 2.4 3.1 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 1.9 2.1 0.9 2.6 18.0 24.7 27.4 24.6 13.7 31.2 15.1 7.4 8.3 8.3 7.1 25.7 21.0 25.4 30.8 28.0 4.7 9.5 391.1 444.4 411.2 376.1 393.8 492.0 440.2 424.5 299.4 441.6 380.3 426.2 410.9 397.3 420.1 331.1 446.5 456.8 8.1 8.4 6.8 7.3 9.2 7.1 8.5 7.8 7.7 8.2 9.1 9.4 9.0 9.2 6.4 8.2 7.3 7.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 1.2 0.5 0.0 -0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 438.5 53.6 60.1 83.0 129.4 64.1 59.5 74.7 160.8 52.3 95.0 61.4 53.5 67.2 66.9 60.6 69.4 59.6 65.1 65.1 5.3 9.4 13.5 3.3 7.3 31.1 83.5 2.0 2.7 2.8 10.9 3.4 7.3 5.1 4.2 5.1 3.6 3.6 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.5 1.2 1.9 1.9 0.9 0.4 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 2.0 0.9 0.9 0.5 100.9 1.5 1.5 0.0 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 50.3 0.2 0.2 49.5 61.2 38.1 55.8 46.7 63.7 231.8 54.1 70.0 99.8 58.9 56.0 48.2 54.3 35.1 63.9 50.3 50.3 1,335.4 1,302.9 1,272.4 1,372.8 1,373.5 1,419.6 1,793.9 1,418.8 1,408.1 1,363.7 1,359.2 1,476.8 1,322.7 1,308.2 1,321.2 1,325.6 1,332.2 1,332.2 548.9 529.5 529.0 578.4 557.2 543.8 670.0 638.7 636.7 622.9 629.0 585.2 528.1 535.5 540.4 569.6 544.3 544.3 321.5 319.7 324.8 319.0 329.2 322.8 328.0 325.9 315.9 324.8 312.1 377.6 320.2 321.4 320.5 312.7 322.0 322.0 219.6 203.2 200.5 183.9 203.2 216.9 323.0 202.2 183.8 199.4 213.1 203.3 199.7 207.5 215.7 180.6 196.5 196.5 4.6 4.0 0.9 71.5 21.9 1.5 5.8 88.6 134.5 88.2 101.3 1.5 5.3 3.9 2.3 71.7 21.9 21.9 3.3 2.5 2.8 4.0 2.9 2.7 13.2 22.0 2.5 10.5 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.6 1.9 4.5 3.9 3.9 629.9 608.7 590.1 612.0 624.5 633.0 716.1 673.8 628.0 640.2 635.7 781.7 658.7 620.4 619.7 615.1 611.3 611.3 40.9 39.3 27.6 36.8 46.4 50.2 98.1 97.5 46.4 27.4 40.9 36.8 49.9 22.7 22.9 23.6 17.0 17.0 513.6 509.1 501.2 504.4 516.8 519.5 526.6 521.5 532.4 552.1 534.6 673.0 537.8 530.1 529.8 522.6 527.1 527.1 68.0 59.0 59.4 64.9 58.2 59.0 89.1 51.2 48.7 58.8 54.9 61.9 69.4 61.5 65.9 61.7 65.9 65.9 7.5 1.4 1.9 5.8 3.1 4.2 2.3 3.6 0.4 1.9 5.4 9.9 1.7 6.2 1.1 7.2 1.2 1.2 86.7 108.2 99.7 113.2 116.1 161.6 306.6 58.8 50.7 59.4 54.2 62.0 80.3 78.5 105.5 82.5 94.6 94.6 52.0 25.6 22.1 34.3 40.7 68.1 68.2 12.5 11.5 18.4 20.4 21.1 31.8 41.4 29.1 26.3 49.3 49.3 17.9 30.8 31.6 34.9 35.1 13.1 33.0 35.1 81.3 22.9 19.9 26.9 23.8 32.3 26.5 32.1 32.8 32.8 - - - - - - - - - Acronyms Acronyms in the text BS - Bank of Slovenia, EC - European Commission, ECB - European Central Bank, EFSF - European Financial Stability Facility, ESM - European Stability Mechanism, ESS - Employment Service of Slovenia, EU - European Union, GDP - Gross Domestic Product, HICP - Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, IMAD - Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, IMF - International Monetary Fund, MF - Ministry of Finance, MI - Ministry of the Interior, MTO - Medium-term Objective, NFI - Non-monetary Financial Institutions, RS - Republic of Slovenia, SCA - Standard Classification of Activities, SMA -Securities Market Agency, SORS - Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, SRE - Statistical Register of Employment. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities (SCA) A - Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B - Mining and quarrying, C - Manufacturing, 10 - Manufacture of food products, 11 - Manufacture of beverages, 12 - Manufacture of tobacco products, 13 - Manufacture of textiles, 14 - Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15 - Manufacture of leather and related products, 16 - Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17 - Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18 - Printing and reproduction of recordedmedia, 19-Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, 20- Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21 - Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22 - Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23 - Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24 - Manufacture of basic metals, 25 - Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26 - Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27 - Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28 - Manufacture of machinery and equipmentn.e.c.,29-Manufacture ofmotor vehicles, trailersandsemi-trailers,30-Manufactureofother transport equipment, 31 - Manufacture of furniture, 32 - Other manufacturing, 33 - Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D-Electricity,gas,steamandairconditioningsupply,E-Watersupplysewerage,wastemanagementandremediationactivities, F - Construction, G - Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H - Transportation and storage, I - Accommodation and food service activities, J - Information and communication, K - Financial and insurance activities, L -Real estate activities, M - Professional, scientific and technical activities, N - Administrative and support service activities, O - Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P - Education, Q - Human health and social work activities, R - Arts, entertainment and recreation, S - Other service activities, T - Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods- and services- producing activities of households for own use, U - Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AT-Austria, BA-Bosnia and Herzegovina, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, HR-Croatia, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IE-Ireland, IL-Israel, IT-Italy, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RS-Republic of Serbia, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America. Slovenian economic mirror December 2011, No. 12. Vol. XVII