Slovenian economic mirror September 2009, No. 9. Vol. XV Slovenian Economic Mirror (Ekonomsko ogledalo) ISSN 1318-3826 No. 9/ Vol. XV / 2009 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Director: Boštjan Vasle, MSc Editor in Chief: Jure Brložnik, MA Lejla Fajić (In the Spotlight - Autumn Forecast of Economic Trends 2009), Jure Brložnik, MA, Matevž Hribernik (International Environment); Barbara Ferk, MSc, Janez Kušar, Jože Markič, PhD, Tina Nenadič, Metka Stare, PhD, Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič (Economic Developments in Slovenia); Saša Kovačič, Tomaž Kraigher, Ana T. Selan, MSc (Labour Market); Slavica Jurančič, Miha Trošt (Prices); Jože Markič, PhD (Balance of Payments); Marjan Hafner (Financial Markets); Barbara Knapič Navarrete, Jasna Kondža (Public Finance); Matevž Hribernik (Indices of International Competitiveness of Slovenia's Economy); Janja Pečar (Employment and Unemployment by Region); Tanja Čelebič, MSc (Participation of the Adult Population in Lifelong Learning). Editorial Board: Lidija Apohal Vučkovič, Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Lejla Fajić, Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, Boštjan Vasle, MSc Translator: Marija Kavčič Language Editor: Terry Troy Jackson. Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Bibijana Cirman Naglič Print: Tiskarna Present d.o.o. Circulation: 90 copies The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the Spotlight................................................................................................................................................3 Current Economic Trends................................................................................................................................5 International Environment...............................................................................................................................................7 Economic Developments in Slovenia...............................................................................................................................................8 Labour Market.........................................................................................................................................................................................13 Prices..................................................................................................................................................................................16 Balance of Payments.......................................................................................................................................................18 Financial Markets...................................................................................................................................................................................19 Public Finance..........................................................................................................................................................................................21 Selected Topics..............................................................................................................................................25 Indices of International Competitiveness of Slovenia's Economy ...................................................................................27 Employment and Unemployment by Region...........................................................................................................................27 Participation of the Adult Population in Lifelong Learning.................................................................................................29 Statistical Appendix......................................................................................................................................33 Boxes Box 1: Trade in Services in the First Half of 2009 ........................................................................................................9 Box 2: Construction Activity in Slovenia and in the EU............................................................................................12 On January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev.2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia, the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, which includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses, came into force on the mentioned date. In the Slovenian Economic Mirror, all analyses are based on the SKD 2008, except when the previous SKD 2002 classification is explicitly referred to. More general information about the introduction of the new classification is available on the SORS website http://www.stat.si/eng/ skd nace 2008.asp. Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 3 In the Spotlight In the spotlight - Autumn forecast of economic trends 2009 The level of economic activity in Slovenia will fall this year (by 7.3%) as a result of the international financial and economic crisis and, to a lesser extent, the expected cooling in infrastructure investment. Owing to the high integration of Slovenia's economy in international trade flows, the decline in economic activity in 2009 is largely the result of a significant drop in exports of goods and services, which are expected to contract by close to 18% in real terms this year. The drop in foreign orders and (gradually) also domestic orders was, with diminishing volumes of production and lower capacity utilisation, also followed by a decline in investment in machinery and equipment. With the cyclical slowdown in investment, particularly in infrastructure, which was even deeper than expected due to difficulties in financing, the volume of gross fixed capital formation is expected to drop by 21% this year. Such macroeconomic conditions also entail increased risks of losing employment and, consequently, income from work, to which households have responded by increasing precautionary saving and cutting back on spending. Household consumption expenditure is expected to drop by 2.0% this year.As expected, only government consumption will post stronger growth (3.2 %), given the functioning of automatic fiscal stabilisers, high growth in the compensation of employees and last year's and this year's impacts of fiscal policy measures. The fall in inventories will also make a significant contribution to the decline in GDP (-2.5 p.p.), after three years of inventory growth. The decline in foreign and domestic demand will be felt most notably in manufacturing, construction and distributive trades, while public services will be the only sector expected to rise. Value added in manufacturing is projected to decline by 18% this year, with the worst results posted in mainly export-oriented and low-technology-intensive industries (the manufacture of textiles, clothing, leather and metal products), which reflects the negative impact that the unfavourable technological structure of Slovenian industry has upon economic results. After several boom years in construction, mainly related to the construction of roads and buildings, value added will also drop in this sector, as expected by 12%. The decline of activity in manufacturing and construction has also crucially impacted economic activity, particularly in business services, wholesale trade and freight transport; value added in market services is, on average, set to drop by 5.4% this year. Value added is only expected to increase in public services, by 2.6%. Amid sluggish recovery in Slovenia's main trading partners and weak impulses from domestic demand, economic growth will be modest in 2010. GDP is forecast to increase by 0.9% in real terms, under the strong impact of what is assumed to be a modest rebound in the international environment. Assuming that Slovenia retains its market shares, exports will increase by around 4% in real terms. These movements will influence value added growth in manufacturing and market services, while the slow rebound in manufacturing will also be partly structural in nature, as production programmes in low-technology-intensive industries are expected to continue to shrink. Deteriorating conditions on the labour market will still have a negative impact on household consumption, which is therefore not yet expected to increase next year, while government consumption is also facing restrictions owing to the low level of revenue inflows. Largely due to the expected decline in construction investment, gross fixed capital formation will also decline the next year, but the decline will be much lower (2%) than in 2009. Next year, investment will also be positively influenced by general government expenditure on investment, particularly investment transfers, which are to be29.8 % higher. Given that the labour market tends to adjust with a lag, employment will also decline (and unemployment rise) next year, when economic activity is expected to be getting stronger. Approximately 24,000 employees, on average, are going to lose jobs this year (-2.4%, according to national accounts), mostly in manufacturing, where production will see the deepest fall. With value added dropping much more steeply than employment this year, the labour market is also expected to adjust further in the next year (by close to 16,000 persons, or -1.6%). The average annual number of the registered unemployed will climb to around 86,000 this year (last year 63,200), while the average registered unemployment rate will be 9.1 % (last year 6.7%). In 2010, the average number of the registered unemployed is expected to rise to around 102,000, in large part as a result of the movements (strong growth) of unemployment in 2009; the registered unemployment rate will thus rose to 10.6%. Weak economic activity as well as oil and food price drops resulted in significantly slower consumer price growth, which will average 1% this year and 1.5% in 2010. Since the second half of last year, inflation has been abating at a rapid pace, mainly due to the "base effect" in prices of liquid fuels and, to a lesser extent, food. In the absence of commodity price shocks, relatively weak economic activity also played a part in easing price shocks in Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 4 In the Spotlight other products and services. This year will see the greatest impact of tax changes on inflation since 2002, with duties on all excise products being raised in order to mitigate the shortfalls in public finance revenue. Inflation is projected to rise gradually from the low level of the summer months by the end of2009, totalling 1.0% in the year as a whole. Assuming that global economic activity will gradually rebound in 2010 amid somewhat higher prices of energy and other commodities, upward pressures on price growth are expected to increase in the entire euro area; average inflation is thus projected to rise to 1.5% in Slovenia. There is a great gap between private and public sector wage rises, as wage movements in the private sector are adjusting to tougher conditions this year, while in the public sector, wage movements are impacted by the process of eliminating wage disparities. In the private sector, the gross wage will increase by 0.8% in nominal terms (last year by 7.8%), while in the public sector, it will be 7.0% higher (last year 9.8%) due to disbursements of funds to eliminate wage disparities (with the first quarter of funds paid last year and the second quarter this year). Wage policy for next year has yet to be settled for both the private and the public sector. Assuming that government measures in the area of public sector wage policy are enforced, nominal gross wage growth will be limited to 1.0% in 2010.If these measures are not carried out, wage growth in the public sector will climb to around 10%. In the private sector, we do not yet expect any further pressures on wage growth from the labour market next year; with a slight rebound in economic activity and one working day more, the gross wage is expected to increase by a nominal 2.4% Given the rapid slowdown of inflation, price competitiveness is not expected to be a significant limiting factor to business operations this year and the next, while cost competitiveness continues to deteriorate this year. This year, the deterioration in cost competitiveness will mainly be a result of a strong fall in labour productivity, but it is set to slow next year when labour productivity is projected to increase again, and when the growth of the compensation of employees per employee will decelerate further as a result of the anticipated slowdown in wage growth. The movements of the current account of the balance of payments are significantly different this year from what was recorded in previous years. In previous years, vigorous economic growth and the structure of growth marked by particularly strong investment demand, coupled with commodity price rises, considerably increased the current account deficit, which will narrow notably this year and the next in the absence of these factors. The surplus from the first half of the year will, mainly due to the expected seasonal movements in merchandise trade and a smaller improvement in the terms of trade, turn into a deficit in the second half of the year, though this deficit will be, at 0.2% of GDP, significantly lower than last year (6.2% of GDP). This development will be largely due to a lower deficit in merchandise trade. The current account is also expected to be balanced in 2010. The risks for the realisation of the baseline scenario of the autumn report are (in the following two years) mainly related to the recovery in the international environment and wage growth in the public sector. Risks to the realisation of the central scenario of the economic activity forecast remain exceptionally high and are distributed asymmetrically towards lower-than-predicted economic growth, particularly for 2010. If the recovery in the international environment proves to be slower, Slovenia's GDP will also continue to decline next year, while in 2011, the increase in all consumption aggregates and, consequently, GDP will be lower than assumed in the baseline scenario. A risk that macroeconomic relationships will deteriorate in the coming years also arises from public sector wages and social transfers posting stronger growth in 2010 than what was forecast in the baseline scenario. The realisation of this risk might lead to further measures to curb other general government expenditure, which would have a pro-cyclical effect in a year of weak economic growth, or to a further increase in general government debt. Higher borrowing would gradually result in increased country risk premiums, contributing significantly to higher public debt servicing costs and crowding out the private sector. At the same time, with stronger wage growth, the cost competitiveness of Slovenia's economy would deteriorate noticeably for the second year in a row, which might, in the medium term, jeopardise the position of Slovenian enterprises on foreign markets and thus Slovenia's potential for achieving higher rates of economic growth. Specifically, the materialisation of this scenario would -due to the unsustainable relationship between general government revenue and expenditure - gradually increase the need to secure new public finance revenues, thus adding to the tax burden on the economy, while also increasing inflationary pressures in the medium term. current economic trends Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 7 Current Economic Trends International environment International institutions (EC, IMF, OECD) expect that the global economy will recover slightly in the second half of this year. In its interim autumn forecast, based on movements in the seven largest European economies, the European Commission predicts an equal fall in GDP this year as forecast in the spring (-4.0%), despite weaker-than-expected economic activity in the first half of the year, estimating that the short-term outlook for EU economy growth improved.The OECD came to similar conclusions, revising upwards its forecast of GDP growth in the euro area for this year by 0.9 p.p., to -3.9% in its interim economic assessment in September. The improvement of near-term prospects is a result of a slightly better situation on financial markets, signs of recovery in world trade, a further improvement in confidence indicators (in September, the confidence indicator for the euro area increased for the sixth consecutive month), the anticipated turn in the inventory cycle, and particularly, the unprecedented stimulus packages implemented by governments and central banks. Mainly owing to the temporary nature of the last two factors and a continued high level of uncertainty, the EC allows for the possibility that economic activity in the European economies may decelerate again at the turn of the year. These expectations for the following year are also shared by other institutions, which do not anticipate any rapid recovery of economic activity, at least not before the end of 2010. In the autumn, the IMF thus revised upwards its forecasts for global GDP for this year (-1.1%) and the next (3.1%), though emphasising, at the same time, that the recovery will be slow, prolonged and rather uncertain. In its Global Financial Stability Report, the IMF cautions that the situation on financial markets remains fairly uncertain, even though the substantive stabilisation efforts are already Figure 1: Actual and forecast economic growth in the entire euro area and Germany -EMU -----EMU, forecast -Germany -----Germany, forecast Table 1: IMAD assumptions and forecasts by international institutions for economic growth \ / \ \ <''' U ''''' U—'''''' \ / \/ 2009 2010 OECD Sep 09 EC Sep 09 CONS Sep 09 IMAD Sep 09 IMF Oct 09 CONS Sep 09 IMAD Sep 09 IMF Oct 09 EMU -3.9 -4.0 -3.9 -3.9 -4.2 1.0 0.4 0.3 EU N/A -4.0 -4.0 -4.2 -4.2 0.7 0.2 0.5 DE -4.8 -5.1 -5.0 -4.8 -5.3 1.3 0.9 0.8 IT -5.2 -5.0 -5.0 -5.2 -5.1 0.5 -0.2 0.2 AT N/A N/A -3.8 -3.5 N/A 0.1 0.0 N/A FR -2.1 -2.1 -2.2 -2.1 -2.4 1.1 0.6 0.3 UK -4.7 -4.3 -4.3 -4.7 -4.4 1.1 -0.3 0.9 ZDA -2.8 N/A -2.6 -2.8 -2.7 2.4 0.9 1.5 Source: OECD Economic Outlook Interim Assessment (September 2009), European Commission Interim Forecast (September 2009), Consensus Forecasts (September 2009), IMAD Autumn Forecast of Economic Trends (September 2009), IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2009). yielding results. The IMF has otherwise revised downwards its estimates of total losses in the global financial system between 2007 and 2010 from April's USD 4,000 bn to USD 3,400 bn (5.6% of global GDP in 2008), of which bank losses amount to USD 2,800 bn. According to the IMF estimates, banks have already recognised USD 1,300 bn of losses through the first half of this year, which means that the process of cleaning up bank balance sheets has not yet been completed. Thus far, US banks have recognised about 60% of anticipated write-downs, while euro area and UK banks have recognised only about 40% of their likely losses. The IMF also gave an estimate of the need for additional capital, assessing that US banks need USD 130 bn, European banks USD 310 bn and their British counterparts USD 120 bn. Looking ahead, the IMF questions, among other key issues, whether financial institutions can provide sufficient credit to sustain an economic recovery, estimating that bank loan supplies will be falling not only until the end of this year, but also in 2010. The situation on financial markets has nonetheless stabilised in recent months, which is also corroborated by the second ECB auction at the end of September, offering banks unlimited funds with a maturity of one year and at a 1.0% interest rate, for the second time this year. Banks sought EUR 75.2 bn in loans this time (compared with EUR 442 bn in June), which is, according to analysts, attributable to the fact that, thanks to the concerted efforts of central banks and governments, the financial system is sufficiently liquid for banks to be able to obtain the necessary funding elsewhere. Oil price movement slowed to a level below USD 70/barrel in September. The average monthly price of Brent oil dropped by 6.5% in September, totalling USD 67.7/ barrel. According to the IEA, oil demand is stabilising and is expected to remain low in advanced economies until the end of the year, which is one of the reasons for September's price drop. o o o o o Source: Eurostat, Consensus Forecasts (September 2009). 8 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends In September, the main central banks kept their key interest rates unchanged, while interest rates on interbank markets continue to decline. The euro continues to appreciate against the US dollar. The value of the three-month EURIBOR declined by 0.08 p.p. in September relative to August, totalling 0.772% on average in the month as a whole. The average exchange rate of the euro was USD 1.4561 to EUR 1, up 2.0% from August or 8.2% from December 2008. The value of the euro has appreciated against the British pound sterling by 4.0% since December 2008, while having dropped relative to the Japanese yen (-1.7%). The value of the Swiss franc against the euro remained roughly the same in September compared to December 2008. Economic activity in Slovenia Seasonally adjusted, the value of most short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia dropped somewhat in July.1 The seasonally adjusted value of the nominal merchandise exports declined in July (-1.2%), following four months of modest growth. The volume of industrial production in manufacturing remained at roughly the same level in July (-0.2%, seasonally adjusted), after growing for two months. The seasonally adjusted value of construction put in place dropped in July (-4.6%) for the fourth month in a row. Real turnover in hotels and restaurants has been dropping for quite a while (-0.7%), while the total turnover in retail trade (seasonally adjusted) stayed at approximately the same level in July as in previous months. In July, the values of nominal merchandise exports, the volume of production in manufacturing and construction put in place were about one fifth lower y-o-y, while real turnover in retail trade and hotels and restaurants dropped by more than a tenth. The sentiment indicator is still substantially lower than in the same period last year, even though it increased in September for the fifth consecutive month. The value of merchandise trade remained low in the first seven months of this year.2 According to seasonally adjusted data, merchandise exports dropped somewhat in July (-1.2%), after growing slightly in the previous four months, and were 22.4% lower y-o-y. According to data for the first half of the year, export flows to Slovenia's main trading partners continued to fall, but the decline in road vehicle exports, the main component in Slovenia's exports,3 was less pronounced than the drop in exports of other products. The measures taken in certain European countries to stimulate car purchases had a positive impact on a gradual monthly increase in the volume of Slovenian production and exports of road vehicles. Road vehicle exports to Slovenia's main trading partners in the EU4 1 All seasonally adjusted data in the Economic Mirror are calculations by IMAD. 2 According to the external trade statistics. 3 The share of road vehicles in Slovenia's total merchandise exports totalled 15.5% in the first half of the year. 4 In the EU, Slovenia's main trading partners are Germany, with a 20.4% share in total merchandise exports in the first half of this year, Italy (11.7%), France (8.0%) and Austria (7.8%), and outside the EU, Croatia (8.0%). Figure 2: Values of short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia -Merchandise exports (nom.) -Industrial production in manufact. ---------Value of construction put in place -Turnover in trade Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. dropped y-o-y in the second quarter of this year (-1.1%), but significantly less than in the first quarter (-18.1%). In the first half of the year as a whole, Slovenia exported approximately 90% of all vehicles into EU countries, the most to France and Germany, where Slovenia's sales also increased y-o-y. Looking at other main SITC groups, the negative contribution to the overall y-o-y growth in merchandise exports increased further in the second quarter. Regarding Slovenia's exports to its five main trading partners, the second quarter saw a stronger y-o-y decline than the first in merchandise exports to Italy (-29.2%), Austria (-24.9%), France (-12.3%) and Croatia (-28.2%), while a smaller decline was only recorded for merchandise exports to Germany (-16.1%). Figure 3: Export growth structure according to the SITC ■ Road vehicles œ Iron and steel; non-ferrous metals and metal products ■ General industrial machinery; electrical machinery and equipment a a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 9 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends Figure 4:Terms of merchandise trade Terms of trade -----Export prices -Import prices Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Merchandise imports increased month-on-month in July (1.1%), while dropping by 32.3% y-o-y. In the second quarter, merchandise imports dropped somewhat more in nominal terms (-33.3%) than in the first (-26.7%). The breakdown of merchandise trade by end-use products shows that the decline mainly came from lower imports of intermediate products as a result of the shrinking volume of Slovenia's industrial production, as well as the drop in oil and other primary commodity prices. In terms of the SITC structure, the greatest declines were reported for exports of road vehicles as well as oil and oil products. The terms of merchandise trade have improved for the third quarter in a row (in the second quarter of this year by 7.1% y-o-y). Oil and other primary commodity prices in euros saw a considerable drop (by 47.6% and 17.4%, respectively). Slovenian producer prices on foreign markets declined as well (-2.6%), albeit with a lag behind European producer prices. Amid these producer price movements, import prices dropped by 11.0% y-o-y (in the first quarter by 6.0%) and export prices by 4.7% (in the first quarter by 1.6%). In July, industrial production in manufacturing remained at the level of the previous month (seasonally adjusted), after two months of growth, posting a smaller y-o-y drop than in the first half of the year. Industrial production dropped Box 1: Trade in services in the first half of 2009 Experience from previous world economic crises shows that trade in services is affected by a crisis with a lag, and to a lesser extent than merchandise trade.1 Its impacts are more severe in services closely linked to merchandise trade, such as transport, or those strongly integrated into production processes. A lower impact is, at least at the beginning, seen in services for final consumption, such as travel services. These trends are confirmed by data on Slovenian trade in services for the first half of the year, given that both exports and imports of services dropped notably in the first half of 2009, compared with the same period last year, yet considerably less than merchandise trade. The surplus in services trade remains high, despite the decline, and higher than in the first six months of 2007. On the export side, travel services were least affected by the recession, as inflows recorded only a small decline, while outflows related to travel even increased. The largest decline was, as expected, posted for exports of transport services (by 30.1%), which is linked to an even higher y-o-y decline in merchandise exports in the first half of this year. Imports of transport services saw a sizeable decline as well (-27.9%). In the first half of 2009, exports of other services also posted a notable drop, which was most noticeable in construction (-31.8%) and insurance services (-28.2%), and in merchanting (-26.3%), while exports of communication services even increased, which suggests that these services are of utmost importance in the modern economies, from the aspect of intermediate consumption as well as by final consumers. This is additionally confirmed by the fact that imports of these services recorded only a slight drop. Imports of construction services, in contrast, posted an exceptional decline (by nearly 50%), likely as a result of lower dynamics in motorway construction (completion of the motorway network). Imports of certain types of services, however, are still growing rapidly despite the crisis, e.g. computer and financial services, and in licences, patents and copyrights. These are services that are crucial to increasing efficiency and upgrading the technological level of the economy. 1 At the beginning of 2009, the Bank of Slovenia introduced a new source of collecting data on trade in services (replacing data on banks' payment transactions according to the accrual principle by the BST report); there is, therefore, a break in the data series in the services balance. Backward calculations were made only for 2008, which enables comparability with the data for 2009. Figure 5:Trade in services in the first half of 2009 Services ■ Imports Construction services ■ Exports Transport Insurance services Merchanting Personal, cultural, recreational serv. Licences, patents and copyrights ; Financial services Other services a Computer and IT services Other business services i Travel services ■ ■ Communications services 11..........111 ■ ill -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Y-o-y growth, % Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. 10 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends Table 2: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia In % 2008 VII 09/ VI 09 VII 09/ VII 09 I-VII 09/ I-VII 08 Exports1 4.8 2.5 -21.2 -21.7 -goods 1.3 -2.0 -22.5 -23.0 -services 21.6 20.4 -16.4 -15.9 Imports1 6.4 7.9 -29.3 -28.0 -goods 5.7 3.3 -31.8 -30.3 -services 10.8 33.9 -15.9 -11.8 Industrial production -1.2 0.22 -20.43 -22.23 -manufacturing -1.3 0.32 -21.23 -23.63 Construction -value of construction put in place 15.7 -4.62 -20.63 -19.33 Distributive trade - turnover in distributive trade and the sale and repair of motor wehicles 10.4 0.32 -15.23 -12.93 Hotels and restaurants - turnover in hotels and restaurants -2.7 -0.72 -12.03 -11.23 Sources: BS, SORS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 'balance of payments statistics, Seasonally adjusted ,3working-day adjusted data. by 21.2% from the same month last year (working-day adjusted). In July, the greatest y-o-y drop was, for the first time this year, recorded in industries mainly oriented to the domestic market (except for the manufacture of beverages). In these industries, the volume of production Figure 6: Turnover from sales and industrial production by export propensity - Jan.-Jun. 2009/Jan.- Jun. 2008 -July 2009/July 2008 -15 -17 Turnover from sale by geographic area Production according to export WM C II La LI WM H I Ci H Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. ï E ■ S E declined the least in the first months of the crisis, but the deepening of the y-o-y decline since the second quarter of this year shows that the consequences of the international economic crisis are also gradually spilling over into industries that are not directly dependent on exports. Meanwhile, consistent with the movement of merchandise exports, the y-o-y decline in the volume of production in industries mainly oriented to foreign markets diminished again in July. Such movements as 13 19 Table 3: Persons in formal employment by activity Number in 1,000 Growth rates, % 2008 XII 2008 VII 2009 2008/ 2007 VII 2009/ XII 2008 VII 2009/ VI 2009 VII 2009/ VII 2008 Mfr. of food products (10, 11, 12) 16.2 16.0 15.6 -3.7 -2.9 0.4 -3.8 Mfr. of textiles (13, 14) 17.3 16.1 13.9 -3.8 -13.5 -1.9 -19.9 Mfr. of leather and related products (15) 4.3 4.2 3.5 -6.3 -17.1 -1.2 -20.4 Mfr. of wood, products of wood, cork (16) 11.2 10.7 9.5 -7.2 -11.0 -0.6 -14.4 Manufacture of paper and print. and reproduction of recorded media (17, 18) 10.7 10.5 10.0 -6.1 -4.7 -1.0 -6.1 Mfr. of coke and petroleum products (19) 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.2 2.0 -1.0 6.4 Mfr. of chemicals and chemical products and basic pharm. products (20, 21) 12.2 12.1 11.8 -0.5 -2.1 1.0 -2.9 Mfr. of rubber and plastic products (22) 14.3 14.0 12.9 0.2 -7.4 -0.6 -9.3 Mfr. of oth. n.-metallic mineral pr. (23) 9.9 9.7 8.5 -1.2 -12.2 0.2 -14.0 Mfr. of basic metals and fabricated metal products (24, 25) 43.7 43.0 39.0 3.2 -9.3 -1.0 -11.2 Mfr. of computer, optical products and electrical equipment (26, 27) 29.7 29.0 26.6 -1.4 -8.2 -0.9 -10.7 Mfr. of machinery and equipment n.e.c. (28) 16.9 16.1 14.4 5.5 -10.5 -1.3 -14.7 Mfr. of motor vehicles, trailers and other transport equipment (29, 30) 15.8 15.1 13.3 3.8 -11.6 -1.1 -16.0 Mfr. of furniture and other manufacturing (31, 32) 14.0 13.7 12.8 -1.0 -6.6 -0.9 -9.1 Repair of machinery and equipment (33) 6.1 6.1 5.8 -2.0 -5.1 -0.3 -3.8 Total 222.4 216.3 197.8 -0.5 -8.5 -0.7 -11.2 Source: SORS, calculations by IMAD. Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 11 Current Economic Trends recorded since the second quarter of this year are typical for most export-oriented industries, except for the less technology-intensive ones (such as the textile and leather industries). The greatest shift was this year seen in the manufacture of transport vehicles, which posted the greatest y-o-y drop in the volume of production at the beginning of the crisis (particularly in the last quarter of 2008). The number of persons employed in manufacturing continues to fall, as expected, given the strong productivity decline owing to a significantly lower volume of production since the onset of the economic crisis. In July, the number of employed persons dropped by 11.2% (24,870), relative to the year before. The greatest y-o-y decline in the number of employees was recorded in export-oriented low-technology-intensive industries (particularly the textile, leather and wood-processing industries), which had also posted the greatest y-o-y production declines in the first half of this year. The number of employees in these industries was as much as one fifth (or by 5,926) lower than in July last year. The deepest y-o-y drop in the number of employees was again posted in industries mainly oriented to the domestic market (by 7.9%). Given that the decline in the volume of production deepened in these industries in the last month and that the greatest y-o-y production activity drop was thus recorded in July, labour productivity was down by as much as 15.1% in July, from what was recorded in the same month last year (in manufacturing by 10.9%, on average). In the future, a greater adjustment of employment may thus also be seen in these industries. The greatest labour productivity decline was otherwise recorded in the manufacture of furniture (-38.4%), where the number of employees, with an above-average5 share of employees included in the full-time work subsidy scheme, dropped by 9.3%, and which recorded one of the greatest production volume declines (44.2%). Business expectation indicators improved again in September, according to the business trends data for manufacturing. Most enterprises expect production to increase in the final quarter. The expected production indicator was positively affected by higher optimism of enterprises with regard to total demand. Specifically, the expected total demand indicator also improved in September, mainly under the influence of enterprises expressing optimism regarding their future exports, as for the first time since last September, the share of enterprises expecting exports to increase exceeded the share of those expecting them to decline. However, the share of enterprises expecting employment to drop in the coming three months is still higher than the share of those expecting it to increase (by 23.0 p.p.), but expectations regarding employment are nevertheless becoming less unfavourable than early this year. Construction activity declined again in July. According to seasonally adjusted data, the value of construction put in place had been rising until March, after which it dropped, being 16.2 % lower in July from what had been recorded in March. It dropped by roughly one fifth compared with the same month last year. Low activity in non-residential construction continues, as it does in civil engineering, but the decline in civil engineering is smaller. Residential construction picked up in July, but these data do not include smaller enterprises whose main activity is, by our estimate, the construction of residential buildings. Judging from new orders and business trend indicators, construction activity will remain low. Figure 7: Indicators of expected business trends in manufacturing 40 - Production expectations Expected employment - Expected total demand ■ Selling price expectations Expected export order-books 30 e .2 20 a S 10 ta 1 0 d S -10 f -20 lal -30 5 In the manufacturing sector, 29.2% of all employees, on average, were included in the subsidy scheme, and in the manufacture of furniture, 36.7% of all employees. The number of people employed in construction has been stable in recent months, but mainly due to a favourable seasonal effect. In the last five months (since February) of Figure 8: Value of construction put in place • Construction -total • Residential buildings • Civil engineering works • Buildings - Total - Non-residential buildings Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 12 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends Box2: Construction activity in Slovenia and in the EU Figure 9: Value of construction put in place in Slovenia and other EU countries in the second quarter 2009 Buildings ■ Civil engineering works I Construction - total In addition to a great dependency on exports, a greater drop in construction is also one of the reasons why economic growth in Slovenia dropped more notably than in the EU in the first half of this year. According to data on the value of construction put in place, in the second quarter, construction activity in Slovenia declined by 19.2%, which is one of the greatest drops in the EU.1 Only the three Baltic states recorded greater declines. In Slovenia, the decline was as much as 10.1 p.p. higher than the total drop in the EU. Slovenia posted great declines (among the greatest in the EU) for all construction sectors (construction of buildings and civil engineering works), which is also linked to the past movements in this area. In the construction of buildings, the value of construction put in place was highest in countries that had posted high rises of the prices of flats (as well as business premises) in the past; the strongest growth was seen in Germany, which had recorded low or even negligible increases in real estate prices and construction activity in previous years. In civil engineering, activity increased in quite a number of EU Member States, which may also be attributable to the countercyclical fiscal policy: specifically, civil engineering works are to a great extent financed from public funds. Slovenian construction activity was thus affected by two factors: lower prices or a high supply of flats (as well as other buildings) and, at the same time, strong infrastructure investment growth in previous years, also as a result of a great need for appropriate infrastructure. 30 20 10 0 0 tw -10 or rg -20 -o- -30 -40 -50 -60 — (Tl^vO —I^CCI— 2 S Source: Eurostat. 1 x< S ^ 1 The analysis is made using the currently available quarterly data by Eurostat. For three Member States (Belgium, Cyprus and Ireland), data are not available. this year, the number of persons in employment declined by a mere 0.6%. According to seasonally adjusted data, the number of employed persons dropped by a total of 3.7% in this period, posting ever greater declines from month to month (with the July decline reaching a high 1.0%). In July, total real turnover in retail trade6 remained at approximately the same level for the third month in a row Figure 10: Turnover in retail trade and in the sale and repair of motor vehicles - Total retail trade - Automotive fuel --------- Food, beverages, tobacco --------- Non-food -Motor vehicles, motorcycles, spare parts Ï 20 i/.-A y 7 I'/'V ■V--.. s\ w MY; A (seasonally adjusted), while the decline in real turnover deepened y-o-y. The y-o-y turnover decline was even deeper in July in all sectors with the exception of non-specialised stores mainly selling food, which have one of the lowest rates of decline this year, and in specialised stores selling pharmaceutical, medicinal and cosmetic products, which have posted higher turnovers in most months this year than in 2008. In July, the greatest y-o-y decline (by 25%) was, as in previous months, posted in specialised stores selling automotive fuels (partly also as a consequence of excise duty policy and relatively higher fuel prices compared with the neighbouring countries), and in the sale and repair of motor vehicles (due to a more than one fifth lower number of first car registrations). In July, turnover also declined by one fifth in specialised stores selling food, beverages and tobacco products, and in those selling furniture, household equipment, construction material and audio/video recordings. In the first seven months, total turnover in retail trade was more than 13% lower y-o-y. Nominal turnover in wholesale trade dropped again in July; the decline in turnover was much deeper y-o-y. After high increases in 2008, nominal turnover in wholesale trade was more than a quarter lower this July, and in the first seven months as a whole, more than a fifth lower than what was recorded in the same period last year. Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 6 In total retail trade, sale and repair of motor vehicles (47+45). Turnover in hotels and restaurants was lower in July (seasonally adjusted), also significantly lower y-o-y. The lower y-o-y turnover in hotels and restaurants in July was 40 0 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 13 Current Economic Trends Figure 11: Tourist overnight stays and turnover in hotels and restaurants -Turnover in hotels and restaurants - Overnight stays - total Figure 13: Business tendency 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 ----Overnight stays - domestic --------Overnight stays -foreign Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. largely due to fewer overnight stays by foreign tourists (by more than one tenth), while the number of domestic tourists' overnight stays increased appreciably again. Total real turnover in the first seven months of this year was lower y-o-y by more than a tenth. Household consumption on the domestic market and abroad continued to decline in July and August. Turnover in retail trade was lower, respectively, in July and August compared with a month earlier, meaning a decline of 11.9% and 13.2%, respectively, in y-o-y terms. Consumption of durable goods dropped most notably again (by around one fifth), while resident household consumption abroad declined for the third month in row (private travel). Household borrowing remains modest, even though the flows of consumer loans have already Figure 12: Selected indicators of household consumption ^^B Turnover in retail trade (left axis) No. of first car registrations by natural persons (left axis) -Consumer conf dence indicator (right axis) 30 - Economic sentiment Retail trade - Services Manufacturing Consumers Construction Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 Source: SORS. been growing slightly since April; EUR 8 m worth of loans raised in August nevertheless accounted for less than 60% of the value recorded in August 2008. The good news is that consumers became much more optimistic regarding the general economic situation in the future and their own financial position in September, which was reflected in the highest value of the consumer confidence indicator (-16) in the period since last September (-12). The value of the sentiment indicator increased again in September, this time mainly on account of the improvement of the confidence indicator in manufacturing and the consumer confidence indicator. The value of the sentiment indicator has been growing slightly since April, but is still 20 points lower than in the same months last year. The consumer confidence indicator and the confidence indicator in manufacturing improved, while the value of the confidence indicators in services, construction and retail trade remained unchanged. Labour market The decline in employment slowed in July. The total number of employed persons dropped by 0.4%, a full 2.8% lower y-o-y. According to seasonally adjusted data, the number of employed persons only declined by 0.1% in July; a decline in employment is typical for that month of the year due to the termination of temporary employment contracts before the summer holidays. Like every year, this decline was strongest in education (1,005 persons or 1.6%). Also in July, the number of persons in employment dropped most notably in manufacturing, but also in distributive trades, construction and transport. In September, the number of registered unemployed persons increased again, after dropping in August. At the end of September, the number of the registered unemployed 40 20 10 0 14 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends Figure 14: Persons in employment by activity Jan.-Jul. 2008/ Jan.-Jul. 2007 Bjan.-jul. 2009/ Jan.-Jul. 2008 Total Agriculture Manu Constrution Market Public -facturing services services Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 15: Persons in formal employment and registered unemployed -Employed 2009 (left axis) ---Employed 2008 (left axis) ---------Employed 2007 (left axis) -Unemployed 2009 (right axis) ---Unemployed 2008 (right axis) ---------Unemployed 2007 (right axis) 110 100 90 80 70 60 ižisli^iasis Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 900 10 880 , 5 860 840 0 820 z 800 780 760 50 totalled 88,366, 0.3% more than in August and 49.0% more than in September last year, when the number of unemployed persons hit an all-time low. According to data for August, the inflow into unemployment was a quarter lower than in July, yet still 57.8% higher than in the previous August. In August, 16.0% more unemployed persons found work than in July and 47.8% more than in August last year; the number of the unemployed who found work has thus been significantly higher than in the same period last year for the fifth month in a row. However, the number of vacancies declined in August (by 16.7%, compared with July), as did the number of people Table 4: Persons in formal employment by activity Number in 1,000 Y-o-y growth rates, % 2008 XII 08 VII 09 2008/ 2007 VII09/ XII 08 VII09/ VI 09 VII 09/ VII 08 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 39.7 38.8 37.9 -1.8 -2.2 -0.2 -3.4 B Mining and quarrying 3.6 3.4 3.3 -5.2 -2.5 -0.8 -6.3 C Manufacturing 222.4 216.3 197.8 -0.5 -8.5 -0.7 -11.2 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 7.7 7.7 7.9 -1.1 2.2 -0.3 2.9 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 8.8 9.0 9.1 4.7 1.8 0.3 2.7 F Constrution 87.9 89.5 87.2 12.2 -2.6 -0.3 -2.8 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 115.8 116.9 114.1 3.5 -2.3 -0.3 -1.3 H Transportation and storage 51.2 51.4 49.6 5.4 -3.4 -0.4 -3.5 I Accommodation and food service activities 33.8 34.3 34.3 1.7 0.1 -0.2 1.4 J Information and communication 21.9 22.4 22.5 4.8 0.4 0.0 2.9 K Financial and insurance activities 24.3 24.6 24.6 4.2 -0.1 -0.5 1.2 L Real estate activities 4.2 4.3 4.4 9.6 2.6 0.0 4.4 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 42.8 44.4 44.6 7.1 0.4 0.2 4.2 N Administrative and support service activities 26.0 26.0 25.4 5.2 -2.3 0.1 -3.0 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 51.0 50.8 51.7 1.3 1.8 0.2 1.6 P Education 60.0 61.0 60.7 1.5 -0.5 -1.6 3.4 Q Human health and social work activities 51.0 51.6 52.2 2.7 1.2 -0.2 2.6 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 13.8 14.0 14.1 6.5 0.3 -0.3 2.1 S Other service activities 12.8 13.1 13.4 1.3 1.7 0.6 4.0 T Activities of households as employers, undiferentiated goods - and services -producing activities of households for own use 0.5 0.5 0.6 6.4 9.5 -1.4 7.2 Source: SORS, calculations by IMAD. Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 15 Current Economic Trends hired (by 22.1%). Both remain more than a third lower than last year. The registered unemployment rate totalled 9.4% in July (the level of July 2006). The average wage per employee dropped slightly in July, while its growth slowed y-o-y; despite its further decline, the gap between wage rises in the private and public sectors remains wide. The gross wage per employee dropped by a nominal 0.3 % in July, while its growth slowed to 3.8 %, y-o-y. It totalled 4.8% in the first seven months, 3.5 p.p. less than in the same period last year. In the private sector, the average wage per employee increased slightly in July and its growth slowed y-o-y. As the private sector gross wage posted a very modest increase in July (0.3%), its growth slowed to 2.0% y-o-y. The trend of decelerating growth was even much more pronounced in payments for overtime work, as their share in the structure Figure 16: Nominal gross wage per employee Figure 18: Gross wages in the public sector 18 16 14 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 17: Gross wages in the private sector - Industry and construction (B-F) - Services (G-N;S) Public administration - Education - Human health and social work act. Arts, entertainment and recreation a; 20 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. of gross earnings almost halved relative to last year. In the first seven months of the year, this sector's gross wage posted 2.1% growth y-o-y, which is significantly less than a year earlier (9.0%); the lowest growth7 was recorded for the industry and construction group (B-F; 0.8%) and the highest for production services (G-I; 2.7%). The average wage per employee in the public sector also dropped in July and its y-o-y growth slowed. The average gross wage in the public sector dropped 1.9% in July.8 Its growth slowed again y-o-y, but was still much higher Table 5: Labour market indicators in % 2008 VII 09/ VI 08 VII 09/ VII 08 I-VII 09/ I-VII 08 Labour force -0.6 -0.2 0.2 0.6 Persons in formal employment 3.1 -0.4 -2.8 -1.4 - Employed in in enterprises and organisations and by those self-employed 3.1 -0.5 -3.4 -1.6 Registered unemployed 11.4 2.3 43.7 28.4 Average nominal gross wage 8.3 -0.3 3.8 4.8 - private sector 7.8 0.3 2.0 2.1 - public sector 9.8 -1.9 7.2 11.1 2008 VII 08 VI 09 VII 09 Rate of registered unemployment, in % 6.7 6.5 9.1 9.4 Average nominal gross wage (in EUR) 1391.43 1372.46 1429.12 1424.23 Private sector (in EUR) 1315.49 1301.07 1322.92 1326.60 Public sector (in EUR) 1642.58 1610.48 1759.92 1726.24 Sources: ESS, SORS; calculations by IMAD. Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 7 In that period, the greatest nominal gross wage declines were posted in financial and insurance activities (-0.6%) and in manufacturing (-0.2%). 8 It dropped in all sectors; most notably in education (-2.4%), followed by health and social work (-1.9%), public administration (-1.6%) and cultural, recreational and sporting activities (-0.7%). 30 25 15 10 5 0 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 10 8 ct 6 4 2 0 16 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends (7.2%) than the growth of the average gross wage in the private sector. In the first seven months of the year, the gross wage in the public sector increased by 11.1%, 4.4 p.p. more than in the comparable period last year. The highest growth was recorded in health and social work (21.1%) and the lowest in education (6.0%). Prices Slovenia saw deflation again in September. Consumer prices dropped by 0.2% in September and by 0.1% compared with September last year. In the first nine months of this year, prices increased by 1.3 % (last year by 3.5%). According to the first Eurostat data, y-o-y deflation in the euro area totalled -0.3% in September, 0.1 p.p. more than in August. Figure 19: Inflation in Slovenia and in the whole euro area 7 6 5 f 4 o ro 3 o ^ 2 1 0 -1 - Inflation - Core inflation (tream mean) - Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) - Euro area: Inflation ■"v__ - \ \ \ A / "" / / . \ \ \ \ \ \ Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Inflation continued to slow in Slovenia in the first eight months of the year in comparison to last year. The key reasons for the easing of y-o-y inflation in Slovenia were the same as in the euro area. Since the second half of last year, inflation has been abating at a rapid pace, mainly due to the "base effect" in prices of liquid fuels and, to a lesser extent, food. The decline in the prices of liquid fuels contributed -0.7 p.p. to 0.0% y-o-y inflation in August, and the decline in food prices -0.1 p.p. In the absence of commodity price shocks, relatively weak economic activity also played a part in the softening of price pressures in other groups of products and services (0.8 p.p.) included in the consumer price index. Lower y-o-y price rises than in August last year were posted by ten out of twelve main consumer price index groups; the softening of inflationary pressures is also indicated by various core inflation measures, as well as a slowdown in prices of services at producers, in the production of most of the manufacturing and other industry sectors for sale on the domestic market, and rises of producer prices of imported manufactured goods. The movement of the price competitiveness of Slovenia's economy was still relatively less favourable than in other euro area countries. The gradual deterioration in the price competitiveness of the economy was interrupted in July. The real effective exchange rate as measured by relative consumer prices dropped in July (by 1.0%) and therefore also posted slower growth this year (a slowdown to 1.3%, compared with December). Posting similar dynamics to last year, it was only slightly higher y-o-y in the first seven months (0.1%). In most euro area countries, price competitiveness improved in the first seven months over the comparable period last year, and it deteriorated less than in Slovenia, compared with December. The relatively less favourable movement of Slovenia's price competitiveness was partly due to the decline (or weaker growth) of consumer prices in most of the other countries in the euro area.To a certain extent, it also resulted from the structure of Slovenia's foreign trade, characterised by an above-average share of trade with the EU. Slovenia's price competitiveness was therefore more notably affected by the appreciation of the euro against other EU currencies, while the influence of the euro's depreciation against the currencies outside the EU was less pronounced. The price competitiveness in manufacturing accelerated more rapidly y-o-y in July, due to a lower y-o-y decline of producer prices in Slovenia compared with its trading partners. The real effective exchange rate deflated by relative producer price rises in manufacturing therefore increased y-o-y (by 4.1% in July, by 3.3% in the first seven months as a whole). As the movement of producer prices in Slovenia tends to adjust to price movements in its trading partners with a time-lag, the price competitiveness in Figure 20: Real effective exchange rates of euro area members deflated by HICP, in the first seven months of 2009 ■ Nominal effective exchange rate ■ Relative CPI ■ Real effective exchange rate ■ ■ ■ j ■ ■ 1 1 i ■ r r i i i i ■ r ■ i Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD. 10 8 6 4 ? 2 0 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 17 Current Economic Trends Table 6: Prices 2008 2009 in % XII 2008/ XII 2007 ® (I 08-XII 08)/ ® (I 06-XII 07) VIII 09/ VII 09 VIII 09/ VIII 08 ® (IX 08-VIII 09)/ ® (IX 06-VIII 07) Consumer prices (CPI) 2.1 5.7 0.0 0.0 1.9 Goods 1.3 6.0 -0.1 -1.1 1.1 - Fuel and energy -7.2 10.6 0.5 -6.6 -3.4 - Other 3.2 5.0 -0.2 -0.1 1.9 Services 3.8 5.0 0.5 2.5 3.4 Consumer prices (HICP) 1.8 5.5 0.1 0.1 1.7 Administered prices1 -7.8 9.6 0.5 -6.9 -4.1 - Energy -11.9 14.4 0.7 -12.8 -7.3 - Other 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.6 1.2 Core inflation - trimmean 2.6 3.9 0.1 0.9 2.0 - excluding (fresh) food & energy 3.9 4.6 0.1 1.3 3.0 Consumer prices in the EMU 1.6 3.3 0.3 -0.2 1.1 Producer prices of domestic manufacturers - domestic market 3.1 5.6 -0.1 -1.7 1.5 - EMU -0.1 2.1 0.6 -6.4 -1.7 Sources: SORS. Eurostat. calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 due to annual changes of the administered price index. figures are not directly comparable across years. manufacturing had already improved somewhat in July (by 0.7%) relative to December. In the second quarter, Slovenia still posted worse cost competitiveness movements than other euro area countries. Slovenia was one of the euro area as well as EU countries with the greatest deteriorations in cost competitiveness since the third quarter of last year. In the second quarter of 2009, the deterioration of cost competitiveness eased due to slower growth in the compensation of employees Figure 21: Cost competitiveness of the economy 18 16 14 12 10 # 8 -C 5 6 o öI 4 o ^ 2 0 -2 -4 I Compensation per employee, nominal Labour productivity, real - ULC, nominal ULC, real - Real effective exchange rate, deflator ULC oaaaoaaaoaaaoa a a a a Source: SORS, ECB, OECD, Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Figure 22: Real unit labour costs in the second quarter of 2009 in EU members ■ Compensation per employee, real ■ Labour productivity, real ♦ RULC Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. per employee, but remained pronounced due to a significant labour productivity decline (by 5.3%)9. 9 Slower growth in the compensation of employees per employee, particularly due to lower y-o-y wage rises in the private sector, also contributed to slower growth in unit labour costs, which was nevertheless still high (to 11.3% in nominal terms, compared with 15% in Q1, and to 8.2% in real terms, compared with 11.3%). The labour productivity decline was still pronounced (-7.8% compared with -8.8%). The real growth of the effective exchange rate deflated by relative growth of nominal labour unit costs was, consequently, lower as well (5.3%, by our estimate, compared with 8.4% in Q1). 12 9 6 £ 3 I 0 ? -3 -6 -9 -12 -15 18 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends Balance of payments The current account of the balance of payments recorded a surplus of EUR 59.4 m in the first seven months of this year (a deficit of EUR 1,257.8 m in the same period last year). In July, the current account balance ran a surplus for the fourth consecutive month (EUR 42.3 m). With a faster contraction of imports than exports, the deficit in merchandise trade saw the greatest y-o-y decline. After posting surpluses in May and June, the balance of merchandise trade recorded a slight deficit in July (EUR 11.8 m). The deficit in the factor income balance also narrowed, which was also mainly due to lower net interest payments by domestic commercial banks on loans taken out abroad in July; the deficit in the balance of current transfers was lower as well, mainly as a consequence of higher receipts from the EU budget. The surplus in the services balance narrowed mainly due to lower net exports of travel and road transport services; a somewhat lower deficit was also posted for trade in all other services (various business, professional and technical services). International financial transactions (excluding monetary reserves) posted a net capital outflow of EUR 238.7 m in the first seven months (EUR 1,672.5 m in the same period last year). Due to the sale of NLB bonds, the net capital inflow of the private sector was higher than the net capital outflows of the general government (a net decline of foreign investment in general government debt securities) and the BS (a decline in liabilities to the TARGET position). The net capital inflow thus totalled EUR 96.3 m in July (EUR 490.4 m in the previous July). Table 7: Balance of payments Figure 23: Components of the current account balance I Trade balance I Factor incomes -Current account Services balance Current transfers Source: BS. With outflows exceeding inflows since February this year, indirect investment posted a net outflow in July (EUR 69.1 m). Equity capital flows were modest, while affiliated subsidiaries mainly made net repayments of loans to parent companies. Portfolio investment recorded a net capital inflow of EUR 874.6 m in July. Specifically, NLB sold a three-year state guaranteed bond in the nominal amount of EUR 1.5 bn with a fixed interest rate of 3.25% on international financial markets. The proceeds are intended for long-term credits to enterprises and households. Other investment posted net outflows in July, I-VII 09, EUR m Inflows Outflows Balance1 Balance, I-VII 08 Current account 12,879.4 12,820.0 59.4 -1,257.8 - Trade balance (FOB) 9,423.5 9,527.4 -104.0 -1,419.4 - Services 2.410,1 1,705.6 704.6 932.7 - Income 592.2 1,041.5 -449.3 -622.9 Current transfers 453.6 545.5 -91.9 -148.2 Capital and financial account 3,031.5 -3,130.8 -99.3 1,586.8 - Capital account 140.9 -108.4 32.5 -11.4 - Capital transfers 139.9 -102.6 37.3 -10.4 - Non-produced, non-financial assets 1.0 -5.8 -4.8 -1.0 - Financial account 2,890.6 -3,022.4 -131.8 1,598.2 - Direct investment -26.8 -448.8 -475.6 97.7 - Portfolio investment 2,636.7 227.3 2,864.0 -712.7 - Financial derivates -29.2 4.7 -24.5 36.2 - Other investment 203.0 -2,805.6 -2,602.6 2,251.2 - Assets 203.0 -361.9 -158.9 -1,053.7 - Liabilities 0.0 -2,443.7 -2,443.7 3,305.0 -Reserve assets 106.8 0.0 106.8 -74.3 Net errors and omissions 40.0 0.0 40.0 -329.0 Sources: BS. Note: 1a minus sign (-) in the balance indicates a surplus of imports over exports in the current account and a rise in assets in the capital and financial account and the central bank's international reserves. 0 19 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends Figure 24: Financial transactions of the balance of payments Figure 25: Net flows and growth of domestic bank loans to domestic non-banking sectors Direct investment I Financial derivatives - Net financial flow Portfolio investment I Other investment in the amount of EUR 709.2 m. With regard to assets, the highest outflow was recorded for deposits of domestic commercial banks in banks abroad. Regarding liabilities, domestic banks raised short-term loans in the amount of EUR 613.8 m, while they repaid EUR 627.5 m worth of short-term debt. Slovenia's gross external debt amounted to EUR 39 bn at the end of July (108.7 % of estimated GDP) and gross external assets in debt instruments EUR 29.2 bn (81.3 % of GDP). Slovenia's net external debt totalled EUR 9.8 bn (27.4% of GDP) at the end of July and declined by EUR 35 m compared with the end of 2008 (gross external assets in debt instruments by EUR 206 m, gross external debt by EUR 241 m).The greatest decline was posted for short-term claims of the BS on non-residents, as the BS transferred a portion of its currency and deposits from abroad on account of its position towards the Eurosystem. The general government increased indebtedness by issuing bonds, while the private sector, most notably commercial banks, was repaying its external debts. Net external debt gradually contracted, despite the significant increase in the general government net external debt, given an even more pronounced reduction in the net external debt of the private sector. Financial markets Lending activity declined again in August, after being somewhat higher in July. Banks recorded net lending in the amount of EUR 69.0 m in August. Household borrowing accounts for by far the greatest share, though this also declined slightly compared with the previous month. Corporate and NFI net borrowing was rather low, despite the operationalisation of the guarantee scheme. The y-o-y growth rate of the volume of loans has been declining for more than a year and a half, dropping to a low of 6.2% by I Households (left axis) I Government (left axis) - Enterprises& NFI (right axis) 700 600 500 c 400 oi 1 300 cc 3 200 100 0 -100 -200 Enterprises&NFI (left axis) Households (right axis) Total (right axis) 40 35 30 25 20* S 15 or g 10 y-o- 5 0 -5 -10 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. the end of August, the lowest value since comparable data have been available.10 In the first eight months of 2009, banks recorded net lending to domestic non-banking sectors in the amount of EUR 796.5 m (slightly more than one fifth of that posted in the comparable period of 2008). Sources of finance on international interbank markets are still fairly limited. Inflows of household deposits to banks are also increasingly lower (down by almost one half compared with last year). Government bank deposits thus represented the main source of finance in the first eight months of the year, while (judging from the current movements) bonds will also become an important source of finance to banks in the future. The volume of net household borrowing was at EUR 80.9 m in August, almost one fifth lower than a month earlier. Housing loans accounted for nearly three quarters of total net borrowing, being (at EUR 57.1 m) at the highest level this year, while borrowing for other purposes (EUR 15.9 m) slowed notably relative to the previous month, but nonetheless exceeded this year's monthly average. Borrowing in the form of consumer loans was also fairly modest this time. In the first eight months of 2009, banks recorded net lending to households in the amount of EUR 308.5 m, close to 40% of the figure from the comparable period of 2008. Enterprises and NFI recorded a positive, if modest, net flow of borrowing from domestic banks (EUR 33.5 m) for the second month in a row. Net borrowing was recorded both by enterprises and NFI. In contrast to July, borrowing was largely based on working capital loans. Enterprises and NFI thus borrowed a net EUR 317.2 m from domestic banks in the first eight months of the year, nearly 10% of the volume in the comparable period last year. The y-o-y growth rate of the total volume of loans 0 Year 2005. Source: BS 20 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends Table 8: Financial market indicators Domestic bank loans to non-banking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR bn Nominal loan growth, % 31. XII 08 31. VIII 08 31. VIII 09/ 31. VII 09 31. VIII 09/ 31. XII 08 31. VIII 09/ 31. VIII 08 Loans total 31.549,1 32.345,6 0.2 2.5 6.2 Enterprises and NFI 23.137,5 23.454,7 0.1 1.4 4.9 Government 584.6 755.4 -5.7 29.2 46.9 Households 7.827,0 8.135,5 1.0 3.9 7.0 Consumer credits 2.883,9 2.877,2 0.3 -0.2 -0.2 Lending for house purchase 3.395,3 3.693,7 1.6 8.8 16.6 Other lending 1.547,7 1.564,7 1.0 1.1 0.7 Bank deposits total 13.689,1 14.126,2 0.2 3.2 5.9 Overnight deposits 5.249,4 5.628,0 0.9 7.2 4.4 Short-term deposits 5.644,8 5.414,8 -1.6 -4.1 -0.9 Long-term deposits 1.957,7 2.542,8 3.2 29.9 57.2 Deposits redeemable at notice 837.2 540.6 -2.2 -35.4 -38.0 Mutual funds 1.513,4 1.750,0 1.8 15.6 -19.8 Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BS, SMA (Securities Market Agency); calculations by IMAD. taken out by enterprises and NFI dropped below 5% at the end of August. Also in July, enterprises net borrowed abroad, this time in the amount of EUR 27.1 m, and thus reached approximately two thirds of this year's monthly average. In the first seven months of this year, enterprises posted net borrowing from foreign banks in the amount of EUR 286.9 m, which is otherwise only 6.9% less than in the comparable period last year. The decline is due to net repayment of short-term loans in the amount of EUR 62.1 m, while net borrowing in the form of long-term loans strengthened by more than a half. The reason borrowing abroad has not seen a more notable slowdown or even strengthened in the long term may be attributable to the differences between domestic and foreign interest rates (the euro area average), which have been hovering around 30 basis points in recent months. Banks were thus also net repaying loans in July, yet this time only in the amount of EUR 13.8 m, only one percent of the figure recorded in June. A closer comparison shows that the negative flow results from repayment of long-term loans in the amount of EUR 627.5 m, the highest net repayment of this type of loans so far, which is most likely a consequence of NLB having repaid a major loan; NLB financed this sizeable repayment by issuing bonds in the amount of EUR 1.5 bn. Bonds are likely to become, also due to state guarantees, an increasingly important source of acquiring long-term foreign funds. In the first seven months, banks thus net repaid EUR 2.1 bn in foreign loans, while in the same period of last year, the net flow was still positive (EUR 1.9 bn). Credit market conditions remain fairly tight also in the euro area as a whole. In August, the y-o-y growth rate thus dropped to 0.3%. This growth is mainly a consequence of the 3.6% increase in the volume of government loans, while the volume of corporate and NFI loans recorded, for the first time this year, a y-o-y decline at the end of August (1.1%). All borrowers combined repaid a net EUR 31.7 bn of loans in the first eight months of this year. The volume household deposits strengthened only slightly in August, posting a lower y-o-y inflow. The increase was to the greatest extent due to long-term deposits, which exceeded 3% growth for the second time in a row. The volume of overnight deposits was also somewhat higher. Net inflows of household deposits in banks thus totalled EUR 437.1 m in the first eight months of this year, down 45% from the same period last year. The decline was largely a result of outflows from short-term deposits and deposits redeemable at notice. After posting net outflows Figure 26: Maturity structure of net bank borrowing abroad 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 -600 -700 Long-term loans -4- 614 f..... ÖSSSSSSSg «211-211« Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. 818 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 21 Current Economic Trends Figure 27: Net inflows of household deposits in banks and mutual funds and y-o-y growth rates Mutual funds (left axis) Other deposits (left axis) Long-term time deposits (left axis) -Deposits, total (right axis) -----Long-term time deposits (right axis) 1000 -----Mutual funds (right axis) 800 0 -200 -400 -600 100 80 60 40*? o 20 & o 0 ^ -20 -40 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. from banks for three successive months, government deposits recorded a net inflow again in August, but this time only in the amount of EUR 47.0 m. The bulk of these new inflows came from short-term deposits.The net inflow of government deposits to domestic banks thus rose to EUR 1.7 bn in the first eight months of this year, which is nearly 1.5 times more than in the comparable period last year. In August, mutual funds managed by domestic administrators recorded a net inflow for the second time in a row (EUR 4.6 m). Though this is the second highest figure this year, it only reaches slightly over a tenth of the average monthly value from 2007, when net inflows were the highest to date. Practically all net inflows in August came from the net inflows to the more risky stock mutual funds, given that the volume of these inflows rose to Figure 28: Movement of the SBI20 and other main indices FTSE -DOW -DAX -SBI20 120 EUR 5.3 m, the highest figure since December 2007. Net outflows from mutual funds thus totalled a mere EUR 4.7 m in the first eight months of this year, while reaching a high of EUR 131.8 m in the comparable period last year. The volume of assets in mutual funds managed by domestic administrators recorded 1.8% growth in August, largely as a consequence of positive movements on capital markets, which (by our estimate) accounted for more than 85% of this growth. In the first eight months of this year, it strengthened by as much as 15.6% relative to December 2008. The turnover on the Ljubljana stock exchange strengthened notably in August, despite the seasonal counter-factors (holidays), and reached EUR 327.4 m. This is only slightly below the total value recorded in the first seven months of the year and the highest value so far. This movement is merely a consequence of the increased turnover related to the confiscation of shares pledged by companies with domestic banks. In August, the volume of the market capitalisation of securities on the Ljubljana stock exchange recorded a decline for the second consecutive month, this time by 0.3%, again largely as a result of the market capitalisation of shares, which declined by one percent this time. The volume of market capitalisation strengthened by nearly a fifth in the first eight months of this year. More than three quarters of the increase came from 36.5% growth in the market capitalisation of bonds as a consequence of the new issues of government bonds. After two consecutive negative months, the value of the SBI20 index recorded 3.7% growth in September. The movements of indices on main foreign capital markets were fairly uneven in September. The MSCI World index, whose value is measured in euros, increased for the seventh month in a row, but posted significant differences between individual indices this time. The main index on the London Stock Exchange recorded 4.7% growth, while the value of the main index on the Tokyo stock exchange dropped by 3.4%. Public finance In the first eight months of the year, revenue from taxes and social security contributions dropped by 7.6% relative to the same period last year. According to the data on paid taxes and social security contributions,11 payments totalled EUR 8.7 bn. The slowdown of general government revenue growth continued for most categories of taxes and contributions. Only revenues from excise duties and social security contributions increased y-o-y in the first eight months of the year (17.3% and 2.8%, respectively), while all other taxes declined. The government was implementing the policy of raising duties on all excise products, which increased revenue from excise duties. Social security contributions have been following the wage bill dynamics and their growth is slowing from Source: Finance.yahoo.com, www.mscibarra.com, Lbo. 11 Based on the Report on Payments of All Public Revenues, January-August 2009, Public Payments Administration. 100 90 80 S 70 ra 60 50 m 40 30 22 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends Figure 29: Taxes and social security contributions ---------Taxes on income and profit -Social security contributions -Domestic taxes on goods and services » Other taxes Figure 30: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 r ! \ i * ^ \ A i V 18 15 es 12 t g ar er 9 a m ni 6 o y- 3 tn o b 0 00 _c or TO o >- -9 -12 -Total revenues Total expenditures \J Source: Public Payments Administration; calculations by IMAD. month to month. Revenue from personal income tax declined by 3.4% y-o-y in the first eight months, largely due to higher tax refunds based on final personal income tax assessments for 2008, as well as significantly lower inflows of income from entrepreneurial profits and income from capital gains. In the first eight months, prepayments of corporate income tax reached only half of what was recorded last year, as taxpayers are able to request a prepayment reduction based on deteriorated current business performance and this year's lower statutory tax rate (21%). Revenue from value-added tax was almost 11.3% lower in the first eight months of the year, following the economic activity decline, amid other problems regarding the timing of tax payments and tax refunds. According to the consolidated balance12 of the MF, general government revenue declined by 6.9% y-o-y in the first seven months of the year, totalling EUR 8.1 bn, while general government expenditure increased by 10.5% to EUR 9.2 bn. A further decline in general government revenue with a concurrent sizeable increase in general government expenditure is a result of the counter-cyclical effects of automatic stabilisers, as well as certain problems continuing from the past (public sector wages, pensions, inefficiency of public procurement procedures, etc.). Despite the July surplus of EUR 36 m, the consolidated balance of public financing reported a deficit of EUR 1,080 m in the first seven months of this year. In terms of economic structure of expenditures, in the first seven months of the year, the greatest y-o-y increase was seen in expenditure on investment and investment transfers (20.4%), and wages and other personnel expenditures (13.8%). Growth of transfers to individuals and households 12 The consolidated balance (according to the cash flow methodology) includes revenues and expenditures of state and local government budgets, as well as revenues and expenditures of the pension and health funds. Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. is also getting stronger (10.9%), particularly expenditure on transfers to the unemployed (76.9%). Following the valorisations of pensions in November 2008 and February this year, pension expenditure saw a 9.1% y-o-y increase in the first seven months of the year. Growth in expenditure on goods and services totalled 4.1% and is slowing from month to month. After the fairly successful movements over the past four months, refunds from the EU budget into the state budget declined in August. Refunds from the Cohesion Fund were at the lowest level since January. With refunds from structural funds being lower as well, the funds under the Common Agricultural Policy accounted for the bulk of receipts (EUR 13 m from the total of EUR 18.4 m). Figure 31: Planned and absorbed EU funds Structural policy Common Agricultural Policy Other Pre-accession EU funds Funds planned by the state budget for 2009 Funds planned by the state budget for 2008 Total funds received in 2009 (Jan-Aug.) Total funds received in 2008 (Jan-Dec) 100 200 300 EUR million Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. 400 50 500 23 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends Table 9: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 2008 2009 EUR m % of GDP Growth, % I-VII 2009 in EUR m VII 09/ VII 08 I-VII 09/ I-VII 08 Revenues - total 15.335,0 41.3 9.5 8.112,0 -4.2 -6.9 - Tax revenues 13.937,2 37.5 9.2 7.417,6 -4.7 -8.0 - Taxes on income and profit 3.442,1 9.3 18.0 1.616,3 -2.2 -23.0 - Social security contributions 5.095,0 13.7 10.8 2.990,6 -0.3 3.7 - Domestic taxes on goods and servises 4.805,3 12.9 6.8 2.638,3 -6.3 -4.3 - Receipts from the EU budget 365.4 1.0 5.0 284.8 64.5 57.9 Expenditure - total 15.434,7 41.6 10.9 9.191,7 9.7 10.5 - Wages and other personnel expenditure 3.580,6 9.6 9.3 2.297,6 11.4 13.8 - Purchases of goods and services 2.525,9 6.8 14.2 1.370,7 1.4 4.1 - Transfers to individuals and households 5.616,2 15.1 10.3 3.543,1 11.3 10.9 - Capital expenditure 1.252,0 3.4 10.7 499.3 12.4 12.8 - Capital transfers 458.0 1.2 37.0 171.6 4.4 49.5 - Payment to the EU budget 427.9 1.2 20.2 262.2 -11.6 10.0 Source: MF. Given that the receipts from the EU budget to the state budget were much lower than the payments of Slovenia's obligations against the EU budget, the net surplus almost halved in comparison with the previous month (dropping to EUR 11.4 m). selected topics Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 27 Selected Topics Indices of international competitiveness of Slovenias economy In the first half of this year, the deterioration of the economic situation in Slovenia was not reflected in international indicators of economic competitiveness. These indicators follow the surveys rather than the actual indicators of economic trends, which may be one of the reasons why Slovenia advanced in certain key international comparisons of economic competitiveness this year. Improving the value of the global competitiveness index (by 0.1 points, to 4.6), Slovenia was ranked five places higher (37th) among the 133 countries analysed, according to the WEF report.13 Slovenia ranks in the middle of the EU average (improvement by two ranks, to 14th), with only the Czech Republic and Estonia placed higher among the new EU Member States. According to the World Bank Doing Business report,14 Slovenia's performance improved somewhat (ranked 53rd among the 183 countries analysed). A higher ranking in the WEF report than last year (by 7 places, to 26th rank) is largely a result of lower scores given to other countries. The factors behind the improvement were good health and educational systems, high innovative capacity, good infrastructure and improved macroeconomic stability. The introduction of the one-stop shop system (e-VEM) for all businesses brought about a significant reduction in administrative burdens, making it easier and faster to start a business (the time required to start a business has been reduced to six days and the number of procedures required to three), which also translated into a higher ranking on the Doing Business index. Another important improvement was also seen in procedures for acquiring construction permits, which have been shortened and simplified. The main barriers in the business environment are limited access to financing (19% of respondents within the WEF research), restrictive labour regulations (14.4%) and inefficient government bureaucracy (12.1%). Around 10% of respondents also said that business in Slovenia was impeded by complicated tax regulations and high tax rates. Similar results are also stated in the Doing Business report, where despite improving the total ranking, Slovenia deteriorated its rank (or stagnated) in six out of eleven indicators, including those of tax environment and access to credit. As in previous years, it ranked lowest on the employing workers indicator (162nd place), mostly owing to the rigidity on the labour market and high firing costs. Some of these problems are also exposed by the indicators of economic freedom. According to the Economic Freedom of the World15 research published in September, 13 Global Competitiveness Report 2009-2010, World Economic Forum (September 2009). 14 Doing Business 2010, World Bank Group (September 2009). 15 Economic Freedom of the World: 2009 Annual Report, James Gwartney and Robert Lawson et al., Fraser Institute (September 2009). Slovenia's greatest problem is the size of government and related high general government consumption and high taxes. The Index of Economic Freedom16 , shows similar results, indicating that in addition to government size and government spending, Slovenia also has room for improvement on its labour market, particularly in terms of rigid labour regulations impeding more dynamic employment and productivity growth. Employment and unemployment by region The consequences of the economic crisis started to show on the labour market in the last quarter of2008, when the number of employed persons declined and the number of the unemployed rose in most regions. The economic crisis translated into a lower number of employed persons with a small lag. In most regions, the number of employed started to fall in November 2008, while the number of unemployed had already grown since October. In the first half of this year, these movements intensified, with the number of employed persons declining most notably relative to the first half of 2009 in the Pomurska, Koroška and Zasavska regions (-2.6%, -2.6% and -2.4%, respectively). However, the number of employed persons was still rising slightly in the Obalno-kraška, Osrednjeslovenska and Spodnjeposavska regions (0.8%, 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively). The number of jobs by region has started to decline as well, but jobs still tend to be concentrated in the Osrednjeslovenska Table 10: Movements of groups of unemployed people by region I-VI 2008 /I-VI 2009, in % Statistical region Unemployed Persons in employment Active population Jobs Osrednjeslovenska 23.4 0.2 1.4 0.7 Obalno-kraška 23.2 0.8 2.0 1.2 Gorenjska 52.1 -1.5 0.8 -2.6 Goriška 49.0 -1.9 0.3 -2.4 Savinjska 18.8 -1.9 -0.2 -1.7 Jugovzhodna Slo. 34.1 -1.6 0.6 -2.9 Pomurska 16.0 -2.6 -0.2 -2.9 Notranjsko-kraška 34.5 -0.9 0.9 0.6 Podravska 21.8 -2.0 0.2 -2.5 Koroška 44.3 -2.6 0.8 -3.7 Spodnjeposavska 20.7 0.1 1.7 -0.1 Zasavska 21.8 -2.4 -0.4 -4.1 SLOVENIA 25.9 -1.2 0.7 -1.2 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 16 The 2009 Index of Economic Freedom, the Heritage Foundation & Wall Street Journal, 2009 Heritage Foundation in cooperation with the Wall Street Journal. 28 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Selected Topics region. In the first half of 2009, the y-o-y decline in the number of jobs by region was greater than the decline in the number of persons in employment (by the place of residence). The number of jobs declined in all but three regions, showing that jobs continue to be concentrated in the Osrednjeslovenska region, which accounted for almost two thirds of all jobs in Slovenia in the first half of 2009. The number of the unemployed rose most notably in the two regions that had posted the lowest registered unemployment rates in the first half of last year. On average, the number of the unemployed increased by a quarter y-o-y in the first half of 2009. The largest increases were posted in the Gorenjska and Goriška regions (52.1% and 49.0%, respectively) and the smallest in the Pomurska region (16.0%); however, this will change with the Mura company going bankrupt.With around 2,500 workers left without jobs, the number of the unemployed will increase by around 50% with regard to the first half of last year, and the registered unemployment rate to 20% or higher - by far the most among the statistical regions. A level this high has so far only been recorded in the Podravska region in 1997 (22.7%). In the first half of 2009, the same regions recorded above-average registered unemployment rates as in the first half of last year, but regional disparities are narrowing. In most regions, the registered unemployment rates had been lowest in September 2008, but they increased in the following month (by 1.7 p.p., on average), and have been growing steadily ever since. In the first six months of this year, the greatest y-o-y increase in the registered unemployment rate was posted in the Koroška region (3.1 p.p.). Above-average increases were also posted by two regions with below-average rates - the Gorenjska (2.2 p.p.) and Goriška (2.1 p.p.) regions, which had the lowest rates in the first half of 2008 (4.3%), and the Jugovzhodna Slovenija (2.1 p.p.), which passed from a below-average to an above-average rate in June 2009, while being close to the national average in the first half of this year. Above-average registered unemployment rates are still posted by the same regions as in the first half of 2008. The Pomurska and Podravska regions remained the worst performing regions in terms of this indicator (14.6% and Figure 32: Registered unemployment rate by region, I-VI 2009 25 o 10 <3 ■ The average of the region ♦ The best-performing municipality in the region X The worst-performing municipality in the region X X ■ X ■ i ♦ X ■ i ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ 20 5 0 Table 11: Labour market movements, by region Statistical region I-VI 2008/I-VI 2009, in % Youth (up to 25) Education levels I and II Tertiary education Women Men Above 40 Above 50 Long-term unemployed Due to bankruptcies First-time job-seekers Due to loss of fixed-term employment Permanently redundant Osrednjeslovenska 30.6 23.9 22.1 16.6 30.2 16.3 10 -8.4 93 6.3 27.3 36.8 Obalno-kraška 45.4 26.1 19.9 9.2 38.6 13.4 11.9 -12.5 63.9 14 41.7 30.7 Gorenjska 91.1 63.1 10 45 59.7 34.6 17.1 -6.6 184.8 19.8 75.7 78.8 Goriška 92.3 57.3 31.6 38 59.7 34.4 22.9 -6.6 62.5 6.1 87.2 63.5 Savinjska 26.2 21.8 11.3 13.4 25.3 9.7 5.6 -11.7 12.3 -4.7 38.9 30.2 Jugovzhodna Slo. 51.2 25.2 44.7 27.5 41.5 21.4 17.3 -3.8 33.4 12.4 59.9 43.5 Pomurska 16.1 13.5 27.8 10.4 22.1 13.9 13.4 -4.5 16.6 -7.4 31.8 29.7 Notranjsko-kraška 51.4 44 13.9 26.4 42.3 25.3 16.2 -1.7 32.1 0.9 53.7 54 Podravska 29.4 20.6 14 9.8 37.7 15.9 11 -8.8 21.7 -3.1 48.5 46.7 Koroška 84.9 51.5 28.1 27.8 66.8 21 14.2 -2.1 -2.6 12.4 77.9 67.2 Spodnjeposavska 35.9 15.3 28.1 9.6 34.5 8.7 3.6 -4.7 17.2 9.6 39 14.6 Zasavska 25.3 19.9 3.7 8.2 39.8 17 14.9 -3.2 10.5 -10.3 37.7 60.1 SLOVENIA 36.5 26.1 20 16.9 36.2 17.3 11.7 -7.6 39.7 1.8 45.7 42.3 Source: Employment Service of Slovenia; calculations by IMAD. Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 29 Selected Topics 11.3%, respectively), while among the above-average regions, the Koroška region deteriorated the most (by three places). The registered unemployment rate in the Pomurska region exceeded the Slovenian average by close to three quarters, being by a factor of 2.3 or by 8.3 p.p. higher than in the region with the lowest rate - the Osrednjeslovenska region (6.3%). Regional disparities are diminishing due to faster unemployment growth in regions with below-average rates.The regional dispersion was 26% in the first six months of this year; it declined by 2.8 p.p. with regard to the first quarter of 2008, being the lowest since 2000. The disparities in the registered unemployment rates among municipalities are much greater. In the first half of this year, the highest registered unemployment rate was recorded in the municipality of Rogašovci (23.0%) in the Pomurska region. All of the ten municipalities with the highest rates were in the Pomurska region. The lowest rate was posted in the municipality of Cerkno (3.3%) in the Goriška region. Among the ten municipalities with the lowest rates, as many as six were in the Osrednjeslovenska region, two in the Gorenjska region and one in the Goriška and Jugovzhodna Slovenia, respectively. Within regions, the disparities between the municipalities with the lowest and highest rates were greatest in the Pomurska region (almost 13 p.p.). The smallest difference between the extreme municipalities (1.5 p.p.) was posted in the Notranjsko-kraška region, where none of the municipalities exceeded the Slovenian average. A great disparity was also observed in the Jugovzhodna region, where unemployment hit hardest the municipalities of Kostel and Kočevje and the municipalities of Bela Krajina (Črnomelj, Semič, Metlika). Particularly due to the growing unemployment in these municipalities, the Jugovzhodna Slovenia region exceeded the Slovenian average in June 2009 in terms of the registered unemployment rate. Broken down by regions, unemployment affected individual groups of the unemployed in a different way. In the first half of the year, the Gorenjska, Goriška and Koroška regions saw above-average y-o-y increases in the number of less-educated unemployed people and young people below the age of 25. The unemployment rate for men increased more than for women, as the economic crisis mainly affected activities that employ more men (construction, transport, the manufacture of metals, etc.). In addition to these groups, people older than 50 also tend to be more exposed to unemployment. The number of these increased most notably in the Goriška, Jugovzhodna Slovenija, Gorenjska and Notranjsko-kraška regions. The number of people losing jobs after their companies went bankrupt increased the most in the Gorenjska, Osrednjeslovenska, Obalno-kraška and Goriška regions. Participation of the adult population in lifelong learning Lifelong learning is a means of improving human capital and thus individual employability, but it also has a positive impact on economic growth and social cohesion. The participation of adults in formal and non-formal education can play a great role in closing the gap between the supply of knowledge, skills and competences on the labour market, and demand. Moreover, it improves an individual's flexibility and competitiveness on the labour market and diminishes the probability of transition into unemployment.17 In addition to formal education, participation in non-formal education enhances also employability. Through its impacts on unemployment and employment, lifelong learning also diminishes, on average, the poverty risk and has a positive impact on social cohesion. With regards to the economy, it is an important means of improving the quality of human capital and productivity and is a driver of economic development. Contributing to an individual's flexibility, lifelong learning is one of the four components of the flexicurity concept,18 in addition to flexible contractual arrangements, active labour market policies and modern social security systems. Slovenia exceeded the EU target in the area of lifelong learning; however, it recorded a decline in the participation in lifelong learning last year. The EU objective that the educational systems within the EU should achieve by 2010 is to raise the percentage of people in the age group 25-64 participating in lifelong learning to at least 12.5%. To monitor how this objective is being implemented, the European Commission developed the indicator of participation in lifelong learning.19 With 13.9% of the adult population aged 25-64 participating in formal and non-formal education in 2008, Slovenia exceeded the European average by 4.3 p.p. However, it lags significantly behind some economically more advanced Northern European countries in terms of this indicator. In Slovenia, participation in lifelong learning has been dropping since 2005. It totalled 16.2% in 2004, 2.3 p.p. 17 According to the Labour Force Survey, Slovenia posts, in the 15-64 age group, a lower unemployment rate for individuals with a low level of education (having completed no more than primary school) than those with an upper secondary and a tertiary education. 18 See: European Commission, Towards Common Principles of Flexicurity, 2007. 19 The indicator refers to the proportion of persons aged 25-64 receiving some form of lifelong learning in the four weeks preceding the survey. The indicator is computed on the basis of the annual average and refers to just one quarter of the year. The change in computing the indicator was introduced in October 2006. Experts point to the methodological shortcomings of the indicator, particularly as regards the measuring of participation in education and training in just the final weeks preceding the survey. This means that the results strongly depend on the time the survey is carried out. Furthermore, the term "lifelong learning" is inadequate, as in addition to formal education and non-formal education/ learning at the age of 25-64, lifelong learning also encompasses informal learning over one's whole lifetime. Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 30 Selected Topics Table 12: Participation in lifelong learning, total and by age group In % Total By age group 2003 2007 2008 25-39 40-54 55-64 65-74 EU-27 8.5 9.5 9.6 13.3 8.1 4.7 2.1 Austria 8.6 12.8 13.2 19.0 11.5 5.8 3.5 Belgium 7.0 7.2 6.8 9.7 6.1 3.4 1.3 Bulgaria 1.3 1.3 1.4 3.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 Cyprus 7.9 8.4 8.5 12.3 6.6 3.9 1.4 Czech Republic 5.1 5.7 7.8 11.6 6.7 2.7 0.6 Denmark 24.2 29.2 30.2 37.2 28.6 22.6 19.6 Estonia 6.7 7.0 9.8 14.2 8.2 4.3 1.5 Finland 22.4 23.4 23.1 31.0 22.7 13.3 7.7 France 7.1 7.4 7.2 10.3 6.8 3.0 1.0 Germany 6.0 7.8 7.9 13.5 5.9 3.1 1.0 Greece 2.6 2.1 2.9 5.6 1.6 0.4 0.0 Hungary 4.5 3.6 3.1 5.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 Irland 5.9 7.6 10.2 9.3 6.3 3.6 2.3 Italy 4.5 6.2 6.3 10.2 4.7 2.2 0.9 Latvia 7.8 7.1 6.8 10.7 5.2 2.3 0.6 Lithuania 3.8 5.3 4.9 9.3 3.2 0.0 0.2 Luxembourg 6.5 7.0 8.5 12.4 7.4 2.7 1.3 Malta 4.2 6.0 6.2 9.2 5.4 2.9 1.8 Netherlands 16.4 16.6 17.0 24.0 15.6 8.5 4.3 Poland 4.4 5.1 4.7 8.9 2.6 0.7 0.0 Portugal 3.2 4.4 5.3 8.4 3.2 0.9 0.3 Romania 1.1 1.3 1.5 2.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 Slovakia 3.7 3.9 3.3 5.4 2.3 0.9 0.4 Slovenia 13.3 14.8 13.9 22.5 10.1 5.4 3.2 Spain 4.7 10.4 10.4 14.5 8.4 4.8 3.7 Sweden 31.8 32.4 N/A 28.4 21.1 14.7 11.7 United Kingdom 27.2 20.0 19.9 23.7 19.8 13.6 5.3 Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. more than in 2008. Unlike in most of the other EU-27 countries and the EU-27 average, participation diminished in Slovenia in 2008, by 0.9 p.p., which is the greatest fall among the EU-27 countries, in which participation declined. In 2003-2008,20 the participation of adults in lifelong learning in Slovenia increased less than the EU-27 average (Slovenia: 0.6 p.p., EU-27: 1.1 p.p.). The participation of adults in lifelong learning depends on several factors: the availability of suitable programmes, distance from the place of residence/work, costs of education, access to information on education and individual needs for education. In addition to these factors, socio-economic characteristics (gender, age, attained formal education, profession, labour status, 20 In 2003, the methodology of computing this indicator was changed; the values for Slovenia are therefore comparable since that year. income, etc.) also have a great impact on participation in lifelong learning. Young people, people with a higher level of education, the employed, and those with higher income are more inclined to participate in formal and nonformal education. The differences in the participation in lifelong learning with regard to age, attained educational level and activity status are also seen in Slovenia. The participation of older people in education in Slovenia is low. In all analysed age groups, the participation of adults in formal and non-formal education is higher than the EU-27 average. However, participation declines rapidly with age and is low in higher age groups (55-64 years and 6574). The difference between the participation rates of the 25-34 group and the 55-64 group is one of the greatest in the EU-27. The low participation rate of the population aged 55-64 may also be linked with the low employment Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 31 Selected Topics Figure 33: Participation of adults aged 25-64 in lifelong learning, by age 25-64 25-39 40-54 55-64 65-74 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. rate in this age group. Given that lifelong learning may be an important factor in enhancing the employability of older people, it would also be worthwhile to increase the participation of this age group. The Lisbon Strategy puts a special emphasis on the significance of education of the working-age population, but given the demographic changes (population ageing), it is essential that retired people participate in education as well. Education in the post-retirement period helps the elderly to maintain mental capabilities and the ability to take care of themselves, consequently reducing the need for long-term care services; therefore, it would also be sensible to promote higher participation in the education of the 65-74 age group. The differences between the participation rates in lifelong learning with regard to educational attainment are still great, despite the decline in 2003-2008. The participation of adults in lifelong learning is strongly related to the attained level of formal education and increases rapidly with education.21 In 2008, the participation of people with a tertiary education in lifelong learning totalled 24.6%, exceeding by 11.5 p.p. the participation of those with an upper secondary education and by 21.7 p.p. the participation of those with a low22 education. In the 2003-2008 period, the differences between the participation rates of people with a tertiary education and those with an upper secondary education, and between the participation rates of people with a tertiary education and those with a low education declined, though particularly due to a lower number of people with a tertiary education. With regard to activity status, a particularly low participation in education was recorded for inactive persons. The data on participation in lifelong learning by activity status indicate the highest proportion with employed persons. The participation of employed persons totalled 15.8% in 2008, exceeding that of the unemployed by 1.2 p.p.; this difference diminished compared with 2003. The participation of inactive population in lifelong learning is relatively low, approximately one half lower than in the other two groups. Increasing the participation of adults in lifelong learning is an important challenge in the field of education. Despite its generally favourable international position, Slovenia faces a problem of great disparities in the participation in lifelong learning with regard to the socio-economic characteristics of the population. Increasing the participation in education of people with a low education, the elderly and inactive population is an important challenge. 25 20 15 10 5 0 Figure 34: Participation of adults aged 25-64 in lifelong learning, by education and labour status I 2003 2007 ■ 2008 30 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 21 As data on the participation in lifelong learning with regard to educational attainment and activity status are not available at the international level (Eurostat), only data for Slovenia are shown. 22 The number of people with a low education included in lifelong learning, which is used to calculate the indicator of the participation of people with a low education in lifelong learning, is a less accurate estimate by SORS. statistical appendix Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 35 Statistical Appendix MAIN INDICATORS 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Autumn forecast 2009 estimate forecast forecast GDP (real growth rates, in %) 4.3 4.5 5.8 6.8 3.5 -7.3 0.9 2.5 GDP in EUR million (current prices and current exchange rate) 27,162 28,750 31,055 34,568 37,135 35,870 36,386 38,058 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices and current exchange rate) 13,599 14,369 15,467 17,123 18,367 17,657 17,866 18,647 GDP per capita (PPS)1 18,700 19,600 20,700 22,200 23,100 - - - GDP per capita (PPS EU27=100)1 86.4 87.4 87.6 89.2 92.1 - - - Gross national income (current prices and current fiksni exchange rate) 26,760 28,506 30,683 33,854 36,278 35,244 35,527 37,004 Gross national disposable income (current prices and current fiksni exchange rate) 26,716 28,362 30,467 33,627 35,993 35,065 35,441 36,783 Rate of registered unemployment 10.3 10.2 9.4 7.7 6.7 9.1 10.6 10.9 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 6.3 6.5 6.0 4.9 4.4 5.7 6.7 7.3 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 4.0 4.7 4.2 3.7 0.7 -5.0 2.5 3.4 Inflation,2 year average 3.6 2.5 2.5 3.6 5.7 1.0 1.5 2.5 Inflation,2 end of the year 3.2 2.3 2.8 5.6 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.7 INTERNATIONAL TRADE - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS Exports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 12.4 10.6 12.5 13.7 2.9 -17.9 4.1 6.8 Exports of goods 12.8 10.3 13.4 13.8 0.0 -19.0 3.6 6.5 Exports of services 10.9 12.0 8.6 13.2 16.2 -13.5 6.1 7.8 Imports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 13.3 6.6 12.2 16.3 2.9 -19.8 1.8 4.9 Imports of goods 14.6 6.8 12.7 15.8 2.6 -21.9 1.3 4.8 Imports of services 5.6 5.5 8.8 19.7 4.9 -6.1 4.4 5.6 Current account balance, in EUR million -720 -498 -771 -1,646 -2,287 -82 10 29 As a per cent share relative to GDP -2.6 -1.7 -2.5 -4.8 -6.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 Gross external debt, in EUR million 15,343 20,496 24,067 34,752 38,997 38,9974 - As a per cent share relative to GDP 56.7 71.4 77.6 100.8 105.0 - - - Ratio of USD to EUR 1.242 1.244 1.254 1.371 1.46 1.27 1.27 1.27 DOMESTIC DEMAND - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) 2.7 2.6 2.9 6.7 2.0 -2.0 0.0 1.0 As a % of GDP* 55.0 54.2 52.8 52.7 52.7 53.7 53.8 53.2 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) 3.4 3.4 4.0 0.7 6.2 3.2 -1.5 0.0 As a % of GDP* 18.9 19.0 18.8 17.3 18.1 20.1 19.7 19.4 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) 5.6 3.7 9.9 11.7 7.7 -21.0 -2.0 3.0 As a % of GDP* 24.9 25.5 26.5 27.7 28.9 23.7 23.2 23.3 Sources of data: SORS, BS, Eurostat-New Cronos, estimate, calculations and forecasts by IMAD. Notes: 1Measured in purchasing power standard; 2Consumer price index; 3Balance of payments statistics (exports F.O.B., imports F.O.B.); real growth rates are adjusted for inter currency changes and changes in prices on foreign markets; 4End July2009; *Shares GDP are calculated for GDP in current prices at fixed exchange rate (EUR=239.64). Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 36 Statistical Appendix PRODUCTION 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009 2007 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 7 8 9 10 11 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D 5.7 7.2 -1.4 7.5 7.5 5.3 2.1 4.0 -0.6 -10.9 -19.1 -23.5 9.7 9.3 3.8 11.0 3.0 B Mining and quarrying 7.5 5.5 -0.6 18.5 8.1 -7.3 9.1 -4.8 -2.4 -3.5 -7.8 -11.7 3.8 30.6 -7.2 -0.9 -5.9 C Manufacturing 6.2 8.5 -1.6 8.8 8.2 7.2 2.3 4.1 -0.4 -11.9 -20.7 -24.6 10.6 9.6 4.7 12.7 4.4 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 -1.0 -11.1 2.1 -14.8 -5.0 -15.9 -2.3 8.2 -1.1 4.5 -3.6 -9.1 -5.1 -1.6 -8.2 -10.9 -14.4 CONSTRUCTION,2 real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total 15.7 18.5 15.7 32.6 16.2 0.2 32.5 17.0 15.7 4.2 -19.2 -19.0 17.3 33.5 2.3 7.3 6.2 Buildings 17.1 14.3 11.5 31.0 7.3 4.2 37.8 7.3 11.5 -2.0 -20.8 -21.8 16.7 17.1 -8.7 0.5 18.4 Civil engineering 14.6 21.9 18.9 33.8 23.3 -2.6 28.0 24.3 18.6 8.9 -17.6 -17.2 17.7 48.5 10.5 11.7 -2.3 TRANSPORT, tonne-km in m, y-o-y growth rates, % Tonne-km in road transport 9.8 13.4 18.4 0.1 30.2 19.1 26.7 23.5 7.7 17.2 -12.7 - - - - - - Tonne-km in rail transport 3.9 6.8 -2.3 12.1 5.8 -3.7 -5.3 -2.9 2.9 -3.6 -24.1 - - - - - - Distributive trades, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* 6.3 9.7 10.1 8.3 12.3 11.8 15.7 13.1 10.5 2.3 -10.2 -15.7 10.6 12.9 13.4 16.8 11.7 Real turnover in retail trade 2.7 6.1 12.2 3.2 7.8 9.6 14.0 15.5 12.7 7.2 -5.7 -11.7 4.5 6.3 12.8 11.0 9.5 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles 17.8 19.2 6.2 21.3 24.8 17.9 22.0 9.6 5.6 -9.9 -24.0 -28.1 27.3 32.7 16.0 32.7 17.7 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade 10.5 16.1 17.1 15.0 15.1 15.2 20.7 23.9 20.9 4.8 -16.2 -23.7 19.7 12.7 13.2 19.5 19.2 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, % Total, overnight stays 2.0 7.0 1.8 10.1 6.8 5.5 4.2 1.0 1.8 0.6 -3.3 -3.8 6.0 9.6 3.6 4.6 8.3 Domestic tourists, overnight stays 1.9 4.9 5.2 13.7 2.3 5.5 4.8 4.6 4.7 7.2 5.2 2.3 0.9 7.2 -3.7 4.2 2.6 Foreign tourists, overnight stays 2.0 8.4 -0.5 7.9 9.8 5.5 3.6 -1.3 0.1 -4.8 -11.0 -7.9 9.8 11.0 7.8 4.8 13.7 Turnover in hotels and restaurants 6.7 2.3 -2.8 1.2 4.0 2.9 -1.8 -1.6 -3.1 -4.4 -9.9 -12.2 2.5 6.6 2.8 2.8 2.6 AGRICULTURE, y-o-y growth rates, % Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EUR m 106.7 492.2 529.9 109.7 120.8 160.3 117.9 125.6 134.1 152.3 105.4 105.9 38.3 41.8 40.7 46.2 53.1 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**) Sentiment indicator 10 13 1 15 13 11 10 7 4 -17 -25 -23 14 14 12 12 10 Confidence indicator - in manufacturing 10 12 -5 13 12 10 7 1 -5 -22 -30 -30 12 12 11 11 9 - in construction 4 17 3 22 15 13 14 11 3 -16 -41 -53 17 17 11 12 10 - in services 27 29 22 30 30 26 30 27 25 7 -13 -18 32 30 27 27 23 - in retail trade 22 27 23 26 29 30 29 28 27 8 -17 -19 26 28 34 28 30 Consumer confidence indicator -14 -11 -20 -7 -10 -17 -20 -16 -16 -28 -40 -31 -5 -8 -17 -17 -19 Source of data: SORS. Notes: 1Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. *Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels; **Seasonally adjusted data. Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 37 Statistical Appendix 2007 2008 2009 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1.3 5.2 12.9 1.7 14.8 3.8 6.8 2.0 -2.0 9.3 0.5 -11.7 -13.2 -21.7 -22.0 -18.0 -30.1 -22.2 -22.0 -20.1 - - -16.4 23.1 18.8 3.6 9.5 -4.4 5.6 34.4 -19.2 14.4 -1.0 -14.7 18.8 -7.1 -3.3 -10.7 -24.4 -12.4 -11.8 1.2 - - 4.0 5.8 13.6 2.0 15.6 4.2 6.7 1.7 -1.2 9.8 0.8 -12.5 -15.4 -23.8 -24.0 -19.3 -31.7 -23.4 -22.8 -20.8 - - -21.5 -6.3 1.2 -1.2 8.1 4.2 12.2 0.2 -5.5 1.9 1.0 4.7 7.5 -5.6 -1.9 -3.2 -9.9 -5.3 -11.8 -14.1 - - -14.3 39.4 40.5 21.4 22.8 13.8 15.4 15.9 8.6 22.4 15.1 -2.3 -3.6 -26.9 -22.7 -9.7 -20.4 -20.8 -15.9 -20.6 - - -5.4 56.3 44.8 18.6 10.5 3.1 8.9 0.2 10.7 24.2 12.0 -11.5 -6.9 -32.7 -17.3 -12.7 -18.0 -23.5 -23.4 -23.3 - - -21.0 23.9 36.8 23.8 32.4 21.7 20.4 28.0 7.0 21.3 17.0 5.4 -0.6 -20.3 -27.5 -7.3 -22.0 -19.1 -10.7 -19.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 7.0 18.1 23.8 7.2 17.4 11.8 10.3 12.6 5.8 12.8 2.8 1.0 3.1 -6.3 -15.6 -8.8 -16.9 -17.2 -12.9 -15.1 - - 8.5 12.8 23.8 7.0 16.2 19.1 11.4 13.4 10.8 13.8 7.3 7.0 7.1 2.1 -13.4 -5.3 -9.8 -15.1 -10.1 -11.9 -13.2 - 3.4 34.7 26.3 9.4 22.0 -1.1 9.0 12.3 -7.4 10.6 -7.4 -12.5 -10.1 -27.5 -24.5 -20.4 -34.7 -25.7 -23.1 -25.9 -16.3 - 7.5 21.6 30.1 12.3 31.9 20.6 19.2 22.9 11.2 28.0 11.6 2.1 0.5 -16.7 -19.1 -13.2 -24.8 -25.1 -20.8 -27.1 - - 4.0 2.9 9.0 0.5 -8.5 14.0 -2.4 3.6 3.2 -3.2 -2.1 -4.4 8.7 3.6 -6.1 -6.9 3.6 -11.4 -1.8 -0.8 -1.0 - 9.6 12.1 11.7 -8.5 8.5 10.5 -2.1 1.1 8.9 3.9 6.0 4.4 11.0 9.6 -1.5 10.7 4.3 -2.2 4.4 13.3 9.0 - -0.9 -2.6 5.6 8.9 -18.3 16.2 -2.6 5.3 -0.2 -6.8 -7.4 -11.9 6.5 -0.6 -12.5 -20.5 3.0 -16.9 -6.3 -10.3 -7.0 - 3.2 -2.5 3.6 -5.7 -2.5 2.9 -5.0 -3.3 -3.8 -2.1 -1.1 -4.3 -7.6 -8.3 -12.4 -9.1 -10.2 -13.2 -12.9 -12.0 - - 61.0 38.5 39.3 40.0 42.6 43.0 39.9 44.5 42.2 47.4 49.0 45.3 58.1 32.9 32.6 39.9 36.3 35.5 34.1 35.9 - - 11 11 10 10 10 7 5 5 4 3 -6 -21 -24 -25 -24 -26 -26 -23 -21 -21 -20 -17 10 9 6 6 4 1 -2 -3 -5 -8 -12 -27 -29 -30 -29 -29 -29 -27 -25 -26 -23 -20 18 13 12 17 13 11 8 7 1 2 -4 -16 -29 -37 -40 -47 -54 -49 -54 -50 -56 -55 28 28 31 31 30 26 24 24 27 24 19 4 -3 -9 -14 -19 -23 -17 -14 -12 -12 -8 31 26 28 32 29 29 27 29 25 24 25 4 -3 -14 -15 -20 -17 -17 -18 -16 -10 -10 -16 -23 -20 -16 -12 -18 -19 -18 -18 -13 -18 -33 -35 -43 -38 -37 -41 -29 -23 -25 -26 -18 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 38 Statistical Appendix LABOUR MARKET 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009 2007 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 7 8 9 10 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 910.7 925.3 942.5 923.5 924.6 934.2 937.7 940.9 942.2 949.2 945.9 945.6 924.5 923.1 926.0 934.0 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)1 824.8 854.0 879.3 852.7 856.1 865.4 870.8 879.4 881.7 885.1 869.0 861.0 854.4 854.6 859.4 864.5 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 37.7 40.4 39.7 40.8 39.9 39.2 40.8 39.9 39.2 38.9 37.8 38.0 39.9 39.9 39.9 39.3 In industry, construction 310.9 321.9 330.4 321.4 324.1 326.8 327.1 331.2 333.0 330.4 317.4 309.3 323.5 323.6 325.2 327.1 Of which: in manufacturing 221.7 223.6 222.4 223.9 223.4 224.2 224.0 224.0 222.3 219.1 209.5 201.4 223.5 223.1 223.5 224.4 in construction 69.5 78.4 87.9 77.5 80.6 82.5 83.2 87.1 90.5 91.1 87.8 87.6 79.9 80.5 81.5 82.5 In services 476.2 491.6 509.1 490.5 492.1 499.4 503.0 508.3 509.4 515.9 513.8 513.7 491.0 491.1 494.3 498.1 Of which: in public administration 50.4 50.3 51.0 50.3 50.4 50.6 50.8 51.0 51.1 51.0 51.1 51.5 50.4 50.4 50.4 50.5 in education, health-services, social work 108.0 108.8 111.1 109.0 108.2 109.8 110.7 111.0 110.1 112.4 113.2 114.1 107.9 107.6 109.1 109.7 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 741.6 766.0 789.9 764.7 768.6 777.8 781.2 790.3 792.7 795.3 779.7 770.8 767.0 767.1 771.6 777.0 In enterprises and organisations 675.1 696.1 717.6 695.0 697.5 706.2 710.4 718.0 719.8 722.0 709.9 701.9 696.2 696.1 700.1 705.2 By those self-employed 66.5 69.9 72.3 69.8 71.1 71.6 70.8 72.2 73.0 73.2 69.8 68.8 70.8 71.0 71.5 71.8 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 83.3 87.9 89.4 87.9 87.6 87.6 89.6 89.2 88.9 89.8 89.3 90.3 87.3 87.5 87.8 87.5 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 85.8 71.3 63.2 70.9 68.4 68.8 66.8 61.4 60.5 64.1 76.9 84.6 70.1 68.5 66.7 69.5 Female 47.0 39.1 33.4 39.3 38.0 37.3 35.6 32.8 32.1 33.0 38.4 41.6 39.3 38.1 36.7 38.0 By age: under 26 18.2 11.9 9.1 11.6 10.3 11.7 10.3 8.4 7.7 10.0 12.2 13.1 11.1 10.4 9.5 12.2 aged over 50 21.8 22.2 21.9 22.2 22.1 22.2 22.6 21.9 21.7 21.6 24.1 25.6 22.2 22.1 22.0 22.1 Unskilled 33.7 28.0 25.4 27.7 27.0 26.9 26.8 24.6 24.3 25.8 31.2 33.6 27.2 27.0 26.7 27.0 For more than 1 year 41.9 36.5 32.3 36.7 35.5 35.0 34.0 32.5 31.9 31.0 31.0 30.4 35.8 35.6 35.0 35.3 Those receiving benefits 22.7 16.6 14.4 16.8 15.8 14.7 15.0 13.6 13.9 15.1 22.8 27.4 16.3 16.0 15.2 14.8 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 9.4 7.7 6.7 7.7 7.4 7.4 7.1 6.5 6.4 6.8 8.1 8.9 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.4 Male 7.7 6.2 5.6 6.1 5.9 6.0 6.0 5.4 5.4 5.8 7.3 8.1 6.0 5.9 5.8 6.0 Female 11.5 9.6 8.1 9.6 9.3 9.0 8.6 7.9 7.8 7.9 9.2 10.0 9.6 9.3 9.0 9.2 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE 5.2 21.5 13.7 5.4 0.6 6.7 5.7 4.2 1.9 1.9 -0.8 -0.1 -0.9 -1.4 2.9 8.0 New unemployed first-job seekers 18.6 14.7 12.5 2.4 2.3 7.2 2.2 1.8 1.9 6.5 3.2 2.6 0.7 0.6 1.0 5.3 Redundancies 63.8 52.5 53.0 11.6 12.6 12.9 12.5 10.7 12.5 17.4 24.8 22.5 4.9 3.5 4.2 4.5 Registered unemployed who found employment 57.4 49.1 41.7 12.1 11.3 10.9 12.4 9.7 9.9 9.6 9.5 11.8 3.0 3.8 4.4 4.3 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 39.2 28.0 26.1 6.9 6.2 7.4 6.4 6.3 5.9 7.4 5.2 6.5 1.6 1.9 2.7 2.6 Increase in number of work permits for foreigners 7.8 15.3 24.6 4.9 4.3 2.2 6.0 9.5 7.0 2.1 1.9 -4.8 2.2 1.6 0.5 1.7 Retirements2 20.6 20.7 22.5 4.7 5.0 5.9 5.4 4.8 6.3 6.1 5.4 5.5 1.6 1.1 2.3 2.2 Deaths2 2.4 2.4 2.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Others who found employment2 24.8 14.4 16.0 9.1 4.5 9.9 8.8 3.2 4.4 6.0 4.0 13.3 -0.7 -0.9 6.1 5.5 REGISTERED VACANCIES3 19.0 20.2 20.0 21.0 20.4 19.1 21.6 21.1 21.5 15.9 13.4 13.4 18.8 19.7 22.8 24.4 For a fixed term, in % 75.3 76.5 74.5 77.5 77.2 74.4 73.0 74.0 76.5 74.7 74.9 77.9 78.4 77.1 76.5 76.4 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 48.3 60.2 81.1 59.3 63.0 65.8 68.7 79.0 86.3 90.5 91.5 90.2 61.7 63.3 63.9 65.6 As % of labour force 5.3 6.5 8.6 6.4 6.8 7.0 7.3 8.4 9.2 9.5 9.7 9.5 6.7 6.9 6.9 7.0 NEW JOBS 155.9 160.0 162.7 40.7 38.7 41.5 40.9 41.0 42.7 38.1 27.5 27.3 11.8 9.9 16.9 18.2 Sources of data: SORS, PDII, ESS. Notes: 1In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. Data for previous years dating back to January 2000 have also been calculated according to the new methodology. 2Estimated by IMAD, based on data by PDII and ESS; 3according to ESS. Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 39 Statistical Appendix 2007 2008 2009 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 935.8 932.8 936.6 937.9 938.5 939.1 940.8 942.7 941.4 940.5 944.6 950.7 950.3 946.5 946.2 945.9 945.7 946.1 945.3 945.6 944.1 867.4 864.4 867.3 870.9 874.2 876.6 879.6 882.0 879.9 879.8 885.3 888.1 886.9 880.3 872.2 868.7 866.0 863.2 860.8 859.1 855.6 39.3 39.2 40.7 40.8 40.8 39.9 39.9 39.8 39.3 39.2 39.2 38.9 38.9 38.8 37.8 37.8 37.8 38.0 38.0 38.0 37.9 327.9 325.3 325.8 327.1 328.5 330.0 331.2 332.6 332.5 332.5 333.9 333.7 331.5 325.9 320.1 317.4 314.7 311.8 309.1 307.1 305.3 224.7 223.5 223.7 224.0 224.2 224.1 223.9 224.0 222.7 222.2 222.2 221.3 219.8 216.3 211.8 209.6 207.0 203.6 201.2 199.2 197.8 83.1 81.8 82.1 83.1 84.2 85.8 87.1 88.4 89.7 90.2 91.6 92.2 91.5 89.5 88.3 87.7 87.5 87.8 87.5 87.5 87.2 500.3 499.9 500.9 503.1 504.9 506.8 508.6 509.6 508.1 508.1 512.2 515.5 516.5 515.6 514.4 513.6 513.5 513.5 513.7 514.0 512.4 50.5 50.7 50.9 50.9 50.7 50.9 50.9 51.1 50.9 51.0 51.2 51.1 51.1 50.8 51.2 51.0 51.3 51.4 51.5 51.6 51.7 109.9 109.7 110.3 110.8 111.0 111.2 111.0 110.9 109.7 109.4 111.4 112.0 112.5 112.6 112.8 113.2 113.7 114.0 114.2 114.1 113.0 779.7 776.7 777.9 781.3 784.3 787.6 790.5 792.8 791.1 790.9 796.1 798.5 797.0 790.2 783.0 779.5 776.6 773.3 770.5 768.5 764.5 707.7 705.9 707.8 710.5 713.0 715.8 718.2 720.2 718.5 718.2 722.6 724.6 723.4 718.1 712.6 709.7 707.3 704.3 701.7 699.8 696.5 72.0 70.8 70.2 70.8 71.3 71.8 72.3 72.6 72.7 72.7 73.5 74.0 73.5 72.2 70.4 69.7 69.3 69.0 68.8 68.7 68.0 87.7 87.7 89.4 89.6 89.9 89.1 89.2 89.2 88.8 88.9 89.2 89.6 89.9 90.0 89.2 89.3 89.5 90.0 90.3 90.6 91.1 68.4 68.4 69.2 67.0 64.3 62.4 61.2 60.7 61.6 60.7 59.3 62.6 63.4 66.2 73.9 77.2 79.7 82.8 84.5 86.5 88.5 37.1 36.7 36.9 35.7 34.3 33.5 32.6 32.4 33.0 32.3 31.1 32.7 32.6 33.7 37.2 38.5 39.5 40.8 41.5 42.5 43.5 11.6 11.2 11.1 10.3 9.5 8.8 8.4 8.1 8.1 7.8 7.3 9.8 9.9 10.2 11.7 12.3 12.7 13.2 13.1 13.0 13.0 22.1 22.3 22.8 22.7 22.3 22.0 21.9 21.8 21.9 21.7 21.4 21.4 21.5 21.9 23.6 24.1 24.5 25.1 25.7 26.1 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.6 26.9 25.9 25.0 24.6 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.9 25.5 27.0 30.1 31.4 32.2 33.0 33.5 34.2 34.7 35.0 34.7 34.7 34.0 33.3 32.7 32.5 32.2 32.1 31.8 31.6 31.4 30.9 30.8 31.2 31.0 30.7 30.4 30.3 30.5 30.7 14.5 14.7 15.6 15.1 14.2 13.7 13.6 13.4 13.9 13.9 13.7 14.1 14.4 16.8 20.9 22.8 24.5 25.9 27.6 28.7 28.9 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.1 6.9 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.6 6.7 7.0 7.8 8.2 8.4 8.8 8.9 9.1 9.4 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.0 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.6 5.7 6.1 6.9 7.3 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.5 9.0 8.9 8.9 8.6 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.8 8.0 7.8 7.5 7.9 7.9 8.1 9.0 9.3 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.5 1.8 -3.0 3.8 1.4 0.6 0.6 1.7 2.0 -1.3 -0.9 4.1 6.1 -0.5 -3.8 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.3 -0.7 0.3 -1.5 1.2 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 4.6 1.2 0.8 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 4.3 4.1 5.8 3.4 3.3 3.6 3.4 3.6 4.6 3.4 4.5 5.2 5.5 6.6 10.4 6.9 7.5 8.2 7.4 7.0 7.3 4.1 2.5 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.6 3.2 2.9 2.3 3.1 4.5 4.0 3.2 2.4 3.2 2.7 3.6 3.7 4.3 3.9 4.0 2.5 2.2 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.6 2.0 1.7 2.0 1.6 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.2 0.7 1.9 2.5 2.4 2.2 1.9 2.1 0.3 0.2 -0.2 2.4 3.8 4.2 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.9 1.9 1.7 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.5 1.4 -0.6 -1.5 -2.7 -1.2 2.1 1.6 2.4 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.6 2.2 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.8 2.3 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 4.6 -0.3 7.1 1.6 0.0 -0.4 1.7 2.0 -0.8 -0.7 6.0 4.3 2.7 -1.1 1.3 1.7 1.1 3.9 3.7 5.5 2.1 18.7 14.2 22.4 22.8 19.8 21.6 21.6 20.2 19.8 20.1 24.7 19.7 15.7 12.3 13.7 12.2 14.2 12.0 13.9 14.5 14.7 75.2 69.8 71.9 73.0 74.2 72.7 74.4 74.9 76.9 76.8 76.0 74.9 75.6 73.1 72.0 75.0 77.5 77.2 77.8 78.7 80.0 65.9 66.1 65.8 68.3 72.1 76.3 79.1 81.6 83.8 86.7 88.6 90.3 90.4 90.7 90.7 91.2 92.6 92.1 90.6 87.8 86.6 7.0 7.1 7.0 7.3 7.7 8.1 8.4 8.7 8.9 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.3 9.2 13.6 9.7 14.5 13.0 13.4 15.4 13.1 12.5 12.7 10.4 19.6 17.8 11.4 8.9 10.2 8.1 9.3 10.0 8.8 8.5 8.7 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 40 Statistical Appendix WAGES AND INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009 2007 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 4 5 6 7 8 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, y-o-y growth rates, % Activity - Total 4.8 5.9 8.3 5.6 5.8 6.7 7.8 8.6 9.9 7.1 5.5 4.6 9.5 7.6 8.8 8.7 9.8 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 5.6 8.3 9.2 7.4 7.0 11.4 10.3 9.3 10.8 6.7 1.2 1.6 10.3 9.7 7.9 13.5 6.3 B Mining and quarrying 4.5 6.4 13.6 3.8 5.3 12.6 9.4 13.8 16.0 14.8 5.6 2.4 11.8 17.0 12.5 17.3 10.0 C Manufacturing 5.6 7.0 7.6 6.1 7.0 8.6 8.2 9.7 9.3 3.4 0.0 -0.5 11.3 8.4 9.6 11.0 6.4 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 5.5 6.2 9.4 4.9 5.2 11.1 9.3 10.1 9.8 8.8 7.9 7.8 13.2 9.6 7.8 15.3 8.3 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 3.7 7.1 7.8 5.6 6.8 10.0 8.3 9.1 9.0 5.2 4.2 3.2 10.7 6.8 9.8 10.5 5.5 F Constrution 6.4 6.6 7.6 6.7 5.7 6.7 7.7 9.6 9.1 4.3 1.2 1.0 11.9 7.5 9.5 10.0 6.0 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 5.3 7.6 7.8 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.5 9.0 8.8 6.1 4.4 2.3 10.0 8.0 8.9 9.1 7.0 H Transportation and storage 3.6 6.0 8.5 4.6 5.7 7.7 8.7 8.5 10.4 6.6 2.3 2.1 8.3 7.0 10.2 7.8 13.1 I Accommodation and food service activities 4.1 5.3 8.4 5.1 4.6 7.8 9.3 9.6 10.0 4.9 3.4 1.7 9.5 10.3 8.9 10.3 9.0 J Information and communication 3.9 5.7 7.3 5.4 5.7 4.6 6.8 7.8 8.7 6.2 3.7 3.1 8.9 6.1 8.3 7.9 8.1 K Financial and insurance activities 8.6 7.4 6.1 7.8 6.2 7.6 8.6 8.8 8.2 0.0 2.0 -3.8 11.8 6.4 8.5 7.1 6.3 L Real estate activities 4.6 7.0 6.0 7.8 7.4 5.6 6.8 8.6 5.3 3.6 1.6 0.0 10.1 8.3 7.5 4.7 4.6 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 4.9 7.0 8.4 6.8 7.1 8.9 9.7 8.6 9.1 6.4 4.0 3.3 8.7 7.9 9.2 9.9 7.3 N Administrative and support service activities 2.5 7.5 9.5 5.9 9.4 9.8 8.6 11.4 10.2 8.0 6.6 2.1 10.8 11.2 12.2 11.1 8.3 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 2.9 5.1 12.2 4.9 6.5 6.4 11.1 10.8 13.2 13.7 11.5 9.8 12.0 10.0 10.4 7.6 18.8 P Education 4.8 3.9 7.0 5.6 3.1 2.4 5.5 5.8 7.7 9.0 6.9 6.1 5.7 5.7 6.1 5.0 10.9 Q Human health and social work activities 2.4 3.1 12.0 3.7 4.0 2.1 5.5 4.3 16.8 21.0 21.4 22.6 3.2 3.8 6.0 4.6 24.5 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 1.3 3.6 5.4 2.3 4.0 3.0 2.4 5.8 8.3 5.1 7.0 5.7 3.9 6.9 6.6 4.1 11.3 S Other service activities 1.5 3.3 8.1 2.9 3.0 5.1 6.6 8.6 8.5 8.8 4.1 1.0 10.3 8.8 6.7 9.0 8.0 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate,1 nominal 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.4 -1.1 -0.3 -0.3 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 Real (relative consumer prices) 0.7 2.3 2.8 1.8 2.3 3.7 4.5 4.2 2.6 -0.1 0.4 0.0 4.7 3.9 3.9 3.5 2.6 Real (relative producer prices)2 -0.6 2.4 1.0 2.0 2.2 1.8 1.3 1.2 -0.1 1.0 2.8 2.6 2.2 0.9 0.0 -0.2 0.3 USD/EUR 1.256 1.371 1.471 1.348 1.374 1.449 1.500 1.562 1.504 1.317 1.302 1.362 1.575 1.556 1.555 1.577 1.498 Sources of data: SORS, AP, BS, OECD Main Economic Indicators, calculations IMAD. Notes: 1Change of methodology: the calculation of domestic currency's effective exchange rate includes the currencies/prices of Slovenia's 17 trading partners (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Italy, France, Netherlands, Spain, Denmark, United Kingdom, Sweden, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, USA, Switzerland, Japan); weights are the shares of individual trading partners in Slovenian exports and imports of goods within manufacturing (5-8 SITC) in 2001-2003; exports are double weighted; a rise in the index value indicates an appreciation of domestic currency and vice versa. 2Producer prices in manufacturing activities Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 41 Statistical Appendix 2007 2008 2009 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 4.9 6.6 7.1 6.5 6.1 9.3 8.0 9.5 7.6 8.8 8.7 9.8 11.2 9.2 3.9 8.6 6.8 4.2 5.3 5.1 4.1 4.7 3.8 3.6 7.4 16.1 10.2 8.3 16.1 6.7 10.3 9.7 7.9 13.5 6.3 12.9 11.3 -0.1 10.2 1.1 -3.3 6.1 2.0 -1.8 4.7 -0.4 6.6 8.8 9.4 20.6 5.2 9.7 13.3 11.8 17.0 12.5 17.3 10.0 20.7 39.0 -4.7 16.0 10.1 5.3 1.7 4.3 -5.9 9.4 2.3 6.2 8.1 9.4 8.2 6.0 10.2 8.5 11.3 8.4 9.6 11.0 6.4 10.8 6.7 -1.4 5.7 0.1 -0.5 0.4 -0.4 -1.3 0.1 0.1 8.5 12.1 9.9 11.8 8.4 10.2 9.3 13.2 9.6 7.8 15.3 8.3 6.2 25.2 2.2 3.2 9.4 6.1 8.1 7.6 5.5 10.3 5.6 6.8 8.2 12.6 8.5 7.2 9.8 8.1 10.7 6.8 9.8 10.5 5.5 11.3 14.0 -1.0 4.8 4.4 3.6 4.6 3.5 1.0 5.2 1.6 3.3 6.7 7.7 5.5 7.5 8.8 6.7 11.9 7.5 9.5 10.0 6.0 11.3 7.3 -1.0 7.2 1.7 -0.6 2.5 0.5 -0.9 3.4 2.9 6.9 7.1 8.5 6.9 6.5 8.8 7.1 10.0 8.0 8.9 9.1 7.0 10.2 8.0 3.9 6.6 6.1 3.5 3.6 1.5 2.9 2.4 1.6 5.4 6.2 8.6 8.2 8.9 8.5 8.6 8.3 7.0 10.2 7.8 13.1 10.2 7.1 7.5 5.2 3.9 2.4 0.6 2.9 2.2 1.1 2.0 3.2 7.0 8.8 7.5 9.8 10.4 7.9 9.5 10.3 8.9 10.3 9.0 10.7 7.5 2.0 5.4 3.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 0.4 1.3 1.4 3.2 8.1 -2.6 10.1 3.3 6.4 10.5 8.9 6.1 8.3 7.9 8.1 10.3 7.8 5.5 5.4 6.9 1.8 2.5 3.4 2.5 3.4 2.5 2.2 13.8 8.0 1.8 7.4 7.9 10.6 11.8 6.4 8.5 7.1 6.3 11.4 1.2 -6.3 8.1 3.8 0.6 1.7 -4.2 -5.4 -1.6 2.0 5.9 5.0 7.6 3.9 6.3 8.3 5.8 10.1 8.3 7.5 4.7 4.6 6.7 4.5 1.5 5.0 2.9 1.4 0.6 1.3 -0.6 -0.5 1.9 6.6 8.3 10.0 8.3 9.2 10.5 9.3 8.7 7.9 9.2 9.9 7.3 10.3 9.3 1.8 8.8 3.1 4.3 4.7 4.6 2.2 3.3 2.0 9.5 9.7 10.2 9.6 8.7 9.5 7.7 10.8 11.2 12.2 11.1 8.3 11.2 8.4 8.6 7.1 9.1 5.1 5.5 3.2 1.6 1.4 0.0 5.9 5.9 6.5 6.9 6.8 14.3 12.0 12.0 10.0 10.4 7.6 18.8 13.3 12.9 16.0 12.3 15.2 8.8 10.7 11.0 10.0 8.4 5.3 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.2 3.1 7.8 5.6 5.7 5.7 6.1 5.0 10.9 7.3 8.0 9.4 9.6 9.3 4.2 7.3 6.6 6.0 5.7 2.9 3.2 1.8 1.8 2.6 3.1 7.2 6.1 3.2 3.8 6.0 4.6 24.5 21.5 21.3 20.5 21.4 25.5 18.9 20.0 26.5 22.2 19.3 16.0 3.7 1.7 3.3 3.8 4.5 5.9 -2.8 3.9 6.9 6.6 4.1 11.3 9.4 10.7 -3.2 9.1 8.2 6.4 6.3 7.2 6.0 4.0 5.8 2.9 2.9 7.4 4.9 6.6 6.2 6.9 10.3 8.8 6.7 9.0 8.0 8.3 9.0 6.3 11.3 2.6 5.3 4.3 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 -0.1 -1.3 -1.7 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.6 -0.3 0.1 -0.1 2.0 3.6 3.9 3.6 4.4 4.3 4.7 4.7 3.9 3.9 3.5 2.6 1.6 0.3 -0.7 0.0 -0.1 0.5 0.8 -0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.4 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.4 2.2 0.9 0.0 -0.2 0.3 -0.6 -0.6 0.8 3.2 2.8 2.8 3.4 2.9 3.2 3.9 4.1 1.390 1.423 1.468 1.457 1.472 1.475 1.553 1.575 1.556 1.555 1.577 1.498 1.437 1.332 1.273 1.345 1.324 1.279 1.305 1.319 1.365 1.402 1.409 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 42 Statistical Appendix PRICES 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009 2007 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 6 7 8 9 10 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 2.5 3.6 5.7 3.0 3.6 5.4 6.6 6.6 6.1 3.3 1.8 0.7 3.6 3.8 3.5 3.5 5.1 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 2.3 7.8 10.1 6.5 8.2 12.6 14.0 12.0 9.8 4.9 3.2 0.9 6.9 7.6 6.9 10.0 13.3 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 3.7 6.5 3.2 6.0 8.0 6.5 5.4 5.0 0.7 2.1 3.0 7.2 6.0 8.1 8.5 7.6 6.4 Clothing and footwear -0.5 2.1 4.4 0.9 3.3 2.5 4.9 5.2 2.1 5.2 1.8 1.2 2.4 2.7 4.1 3.1 1.8 Housing, water, electricity, gas 5.3 2.6 9.7 1.0 2.2 7.6 10.5 11.4 11.5 5.3 1.7 -2.1 1.7 1.9 3.2 1.4 6.7 Furnishings, household equipment 4.1 4.5 5.8 5.2 3.6 4.0 4.5 5.5 6.5 6.7 6.1 4.5 5.7 4.5 3.3 3.0 3.6 Medical, pharmaceutical products -1.7 1.1 2.9 1.4 1.1 0.4 -0.5 1.7 4.9 5.8 8.7 5.3 1.7 2.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 Transport 1.3 0.3 1.9 0.8 -0.9 1.6 2.9 2.9 4.1 -2.2 -3.7 -4.5 1.5 0.9 -1.6 -1.9 0.4 Communications 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.3 2.2 1.9 0.1 -1.7 -4.3 -4.7 1.2 1.2 1.2 -0.7 -0.7 Recreation and culture 2.1 3.6 4.4 2.5 4.6 4.7 4.6 5.0 4.8 3.2 3.0 3.6 3.3 4.4 4.9 4.5 4.9 Education 3.1 1.9 5.2 0.6 2.2 3.6 4.7 5.4 4.8 6.1 5.1 3.0 1.4 1.4 1.4 3.7 3.6 Catering services 4.5 7.3 9.6 6.6 7.0 8.7 9.3 10.0 10.4 8.7 6.3 4.9 6.4 6.5 6.9 7.6 7.9 Miscellaneous goods & services 4.1 3.6 3.9 3.1 3.7 3.4 3.9 4.5 3.8 3.4 3.8 3.3 3.2 3.3 4.0 3.8 3.0 HCPI 2.5 3.8 5.5 3.3 3.7 5.5 6.5 6.4 6.2 3.1 1.7 0.6 3.8 4.0 3.4 3.6 5.1 Core inflation (trim mean) 2.8 2.3 3.9 2.0 2.5 3.1 4.4 4.4 4.1 2.8 2.1 1.2 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.7 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) 1.1 2.6 4.6 1.9 2.9 3.9 4.7 4.9 4.7 4.0 3.1 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.7 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total 2.3 4.2 3.8 4.7 4.1 3.6 3.4 3.7 5.1 3.2 1.1 -1.5 4.6 4.4 4.2 3.9 3.8 Domestic market 2.4 5.5 5.6 5.1 5.5 6.5 6.0 6.1 6.2 4.2 1.5 -0.4 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.9 6.4 Non-domestic market 2.1 3.0 2.2 4.3 2.9 0.7 0.9 1.5 3.9 2.3 0.8 -2.6 4.0 3.5 3.1 2.0 1.2 euro area 2.4 5.1 2.2 7.4 4.8 1.5 1.4 1.7 4.2 1.5 -0.6 -4.5 6.8 5.6 4.9 3.9 2.2 non-euro area 1.6 -0.5 2.1 -0.7 -0.3 -0.5 0.1 1.0 3.4 3.9 3.5 1.1 -0.5 0.0 0.3 -1.1 -0.4 Import price indices 5.8 4.0 1.3 6.7 2.5 0.1 -0.2 0.3 3.8 1.4 -2.1 -4.6 6.2 3.0 3.6 0.8 -0.2 PRICE CONTROL,1 y-o-y growth rates, % Energy prices 8.0 0.6 12.4 -0.1 -1.6 6.2 13.1 16.9 21.1 -1.2 -12.9 -17.7 0.9 1.3 -2.6 -3.6 2.2 Oil products 10.3 -0.9 11.7 -2.2 -4.3 7.4 14.8 17.4 21.1 -5.7 -16.3 -18.9 -0.8 -0.8 -5.5 -6.6 2.1 Basic utilities -2.6 -2.3 0.6 -6.2 -3.7 8.4 1.4 1.3 -1.3 1.1 1.7 0.9 -6.0 -6.0 0.7 -5.7 14.3 Transport & communications 1.5 0.6 -0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 -1.3 -1.3 -1.2 -1.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Other controlled prices 2.6 2.9 1.8 2.6 3.0 3.0 1.4 1.7 1.7 2.4 2.4 6.8 2.3 2.2 3.8 3.0 3.0 Direct control - total 7.0 3.1 8.6 3.2 1.6 5.9 9.5 11.7 13.7 -0.2 -7.8 -10.9 4.0 4.3 2.9 -2.3 3.9 Source of data: SORS, calculations and estimates IMAD. Note: 1 the structure of groups varies, data published are not directly comparable to those published previously. The electricity market was liberalized on 1 July 2007. Data from July 2007 onwards are not comparable. Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 43 Statistical Appendix 2007 2008 2009 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 5.7 5.6 6.4 6.5 6.9 6.5 6.4 7.0 6.9 6.0 5.5 4.9 3.1 2.1 1.6 2.1 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 -0.6 0.0 11.7 12.9 13.9 14.6 13.5 12.3 12.1 11.6 12.2 10.1 7.2 5.3 5.6 3.8 3.5 3.1 3.0 2.0 0.6 0.0 -1.3 -0.4 6.6 6.6 5.7 5.5 5.1 4.8 5.0 5.1 -0.2 0.5 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.7 4.0 4.3 8.4 9.0 9.1 8.6 3.5 2.1 2.9 4.8 6.7 7.0 4.6 4.1 0.8 1.7 3.7 6.0 4.6 4.8 2.3 0.6 2.3 0.5 1.9 1.1 -1.3 -1.7 8.2 8.0 11.7 9.6 10.4 9.4 11.4 13.4 13.6 10.4 10.5 9.0 4.8 2.4 0.8 3.0 1.2 0.1 -2.3 -4.0 -4.9 -3.5 4.1 4.3 4.0 4.3 5.2 5.7 5.7 5.2 5.9 6.4 7.3 7.0 6.7 6.5 6.5 6.7 5.1 4.7 4.2 4.5 4.0 4.0 0.5 0.0 -0.9 -1.2 0.5 1.4 1.7 1.9 4.5 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.4 6.7 9.5 9.8 6.9 5.4 5.5 5.1 1.9 1.6 2.5 1.9 2.8 2.7 3.1 2.1 2.4 4.4 4.9 3.7 3.6 2.6 -3.6 -5.4 -5.1 -2.5 -3.6 -3.5 -4.7 -5.2 -5.6 -3.5 -0.2 1.9 1.0 2.8 2.9 2.8 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.5 -0.9 -0.9 0.0 -4.3 -3.7 -4.7 -4.6 -5.2 -4.4 -4.4 -4.1 -4.2 4.6 4.7 4.1 4.9 4.9 5.4 4.4 5.3 5.6 4.9 4.0 2.8 3.2 3.6 2.8 2.8 3.4 3.3 3.6 4.1 3.0 2.7 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.8 7.0 7.0 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 5.0 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.3 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 9.6 8.6 9.2 9.4 9.4 10.1 9.9 10.1 10.7 10.4 10.0 9.7 8.8 7.7 6.5 6.3 6.0 5.1 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.2 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.7 4.2 3.3 3.1 3.5 4.5 4.4 5.7 5.7 6.4 6.4 6.6 6.2 6.2 6.8 6.9 6.0 5.6 4.8 2.9 1.8 1.4 2.1 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.2 -0.6 0.1 3.3 3.2 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.7 4.0 3.6 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.0 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.9 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.9 5.1 5.3 4.9 4.7 5.1 4.7 4.5 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.2 2.8 3.1 2.6 2.6 2.6 1.4 1.3 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.5 4.4 4.9 5.5 4.8 4.2 3.3 2.2 1.9 1.1 0.3 -0.5 -1.6 -2.4 -3.0 -3.3 6.9 6.4 6.5 5.6 5.7 6.1 6.1 5.9 6.3 6.7 5.7 5.0 4.0 3.5 2.3 1.2 0.8 0.2 -0.7 -0.7 -1.3 -1.7 0.3 0.6 0.6 1.3 0.9 0.5 1.1 2.8 3.6 4.3 4.0 3.3 2.7 1.0 1.5 1.0 -0.1 -1.2 -2.5 -4.0 -4.7 -4.9 1.2 1.0 1.0 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.9 3.7 4.1 4.8 3.8 3.1 1.4 0.1 0.2 -0.3 -1.7 -3.1 -4.1 -6.2 -6.7 -6.4 -1.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.5 0.4 1.3 1.1 2.5 3.3 4.3 3.9 5.1 2.7 4.2 3.5 2.9 2.5 0.5 0.2 -0.6 -2.0 0.0 0.5 -0.7 -0.1 0.1 -0.3 0.5 0.8 3.5 3.3 4.7 3.7 1.6 -1.0 -2.4 -1.3 -2.7 -3.8 -4.8 -5.2 -4.7 -5.0 8.4 7.9 12.4 12.1 14.8 11.9 15.5 23.2 24.8 20.0 18.4 14.1 -4.3 -12.7 -15.0 -8.9 -14.6 -14.5 -18.0 -20.1 -21.5 -16.3 10.3 9.8 14.0 14.1 16.4 12.6 15.3 24.1 25.5 20.0 17.7 12.2 -9.4 -18.9 -19.5 -11.2 -17.9 -15.6 -19.4 -21.2 -20.9 -14.8 6.5 4.8 2.8 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 -5.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 2.5 2.5 2.9 2.9 2.1 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.9 1.9 1.1 1.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 6.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 4.9 7.1 6.6 9.3 8.8 10.4 8.5 10.8 15.7 16.3 12.2 12.4 9.7 -2.2 -7.8 -9.4 -5.0 -9.0 -8.6 -11.2 -12.9 -13.7 -10.2 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 44 Statistical Appendix BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009 2007 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 7 8 9 10 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, in EUR m Current account -77' -',646 -2,287 -274 -538 -692 -425 -486 -642 -733 -208 225 -252 -''2 -'73 -'60 Goods' -',666 -2,650 -359 -40' -664 -489 -668 -75' -743 -'30 37 -89 -''7 -'95 -'80 Exports '7,028 '9,798 20,048 5,027 4,927 5,062 5,084 5,349 5,038 4,577 3,945 4,077 ',74' ',478 ',708 ',855 Imports '8,179 2',464 22,698 5,386 5,328 5,726 5,573 6,0'7 5,789 5,320 4,075 4,040 ',830 ',595 ',903 2,035 Services 993 ',047 ',609 330 306 '67 334 475 487 3'4 264 339 78 '24 '05 67 Exports 3,572 4,'45 5,040 ',002 ',259 ',0'8 ',053 ',299 ',480 ',209 928 ',05' 426 447 385 37' Imports 2,580 3,098 3,43' 672 953 85' 7'9 824 993 895 664 7'2 349 324 280 303 Income -440 -789 -',039 -207 -376 -'35 -'50 -259 -394 -236 -2'3 -'77 -2'7 -'09 -5' -52 Receipts 872 ','69 ',264 293 298 343 266 326 335 336 252 257 97 9' ''0 ''' Expenditure ',3'2 ',957 2,303 50' 674 478 4'6 585 729 572 464 434 3'4 200 '60 '64 Current transfers -'73 -239 -206 -38 -67 -60 -'20 -33 '6 -69 -'29 26 -24 -'0 -33 5 Receipts 785 94' 783 233 230 278 '44 '90 229 220 ''9 26' 7' 93 65 '07 Expenditure 958 ','80 989 27' 296 338 264 223 2'3 289 248 235 96 '04 97 '0' Capital and financial account ',092 ',920 2,395 240 384 982 435 74' 632 588 -'27 -'3 338 39 7 '7' Capital account -'3' -52 -43 -27 -32 -8 -8 3 -8 -30 -5 40 -'' 3 -24 7 Financial account ',223 ',972 2,438 267 4'6 990 443 738 640 6'8 -'22 -53 349 36 3' '64 Direct investment -'74 -2'0 38' -40 9 56 ''4 -'42 '28 28' -'33 -274 '00 5' -'42 '03 Domestic abroad -687 -',3'7 -932 -295 -438 -256 -'25 -450 -236 -'22 -'28 -325 -'54 -6' -224 8 Foreign in Slovenia 5'3 ','06 ',3'3 255 447 3'2 239 308 364 402 -5 5' 254 ''2 82 96 Portfolio investment -',442 -2,255 575 -',203 378 -806 305 -','52 '65 ',257 875 ',''5 234 '20 24 -360 Financial derivatives -'3 -'5 46 0 -20 '2 30 4 5 6 -23 -7 -7 -7 4 Other investment ',57' 4,3'3 ',4'5 ',52' '7 ',665 75 ',947 340 -947 -954 -939 -''0 -'20 246 397 Assets -',939 -4,74' -562 -4'9 -',365 -574 -978 -'87 388 2'5 805 -287 -594 -345 -427 -290 Commercial credits -442 -400 -'43 -'80 29 '36 -5'8 -'70 -9 554 5' 3 30 '55 -'56 -233 Loans -733 -',895 -54' -456 -44' -627 5' -442 '58 -308 277 -73 -2'9 -'48 -74 -'3' Currency and deposits -743 -2,454 ''7 2'7 -942 -85 -502 385 258 -23 47' -220 -39' -355 -'96 66 Other assets -2' 7 5 0 -'2 ' -9 40 -'9 -7 7 2 -'4 3 8 Liabilities 3,5'0 9,054 ',977 ',940 ',382 2,239 ',054 2,'34 -48 -','62 -',759 -652 484 225 673 687 Commercial credits 479 499 -67 55 -89 266 '79 309 -'9 -537 -380 -79 59 -303 '55 '63 Loans 2,064 3,84' ',868 ',554 9'0 ',345 644 ',472 242 -490 -5'7 -',279 23' 254 426 2'0 Deposits 998 4,727 '90 338 567 6'3 253 346 -272 -'37 -858 700 '88 28' 98 328 Other liabilities -30 -'3 -'3 -7 -6 '6 -22 7 2 ' -5 6 7 -8 -6 -'4 International reserves2 ',28' '40 2' 32 64 -8' 80 ' 2' ''4 46 '32 -8 -9' 20 Statistical error -32' -273 -'08 34 '54 -290 -'0 -255 '0 '46 335 -2'2 -86 74 '66 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods ',680 ',936 2,24' 508 466 505 523 576 598 544 444 457 '66 '40 '59 '8' Intermediate goods 9,368 '0,436 '0,760 2,670 2,559 2,597 2,752 2,893 2,730 2,385 ',978 2,005 9'7 778 864 959 Consumer goods 5,709 7,035 6,808 ',746 ',79' ',850 ',753 ',8'7 ',648 ',590 ',479 ',574 6'9 522 650 678 Import of investment goods 2,565 3,03' 3,44' 736 755 882 773 928 862 878 58' 540 246 2'4 295 305 Intermediate goods '',3'9 '2,875 '3,735 3,2'2 3,'63 3,348 3,4'7 3,668 3,543 3,'07 2,366 2,320 ','05 955 ','04 ','63 Consumer goods 4,456 5,60' 5,870 ',446 ',4'2 ',506 ',459 ',520 ',475 ',4'6 ','93 ',229 478 424 5'0 575 Sources of data: BS, SORS. Notes: 'exports and imports (F.O.B.) include also the adjustment for exports and imports of goods by ITRS and duty-free shops reports; 2 reserve assets of the BS. Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 45 Statistical Appendix 2007 2008 2009 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 3 4 5 6 7 -197 -335 -178 -117 -130 -120 -201 -165 -347 -157 -138 -236 -164 -334 -39 -112 -57 45 76 105 42 -191 -293 -188 -134 -166 -160 -285 -223 -263 -298 -190 -266 -180 -297 -34 -31 -65 -40 17 61 -12 1,781 1,426 1,618 1,710 1,757 1,866 1,716 1,767 1,809 1,339 1,891 1,841 1,532 1,204 1,216 1,298 1,431 1,308 1,339 1,430 1,401 1,973 1,719 1,806 1,844 1,923 2,026 2,002 1,990 2,071 1,637 2,080 2,107 1,711 1,501 1,250 1,329 1,496 1,348 1,323 1,368 1,413 46 53 109 106 118 152 170 152 124 166 196 149 107 58 107 63 94 113 114 112 102 297 350 339 335 378 422 433 444 516 487 478 446 372 392 311 281 336 347 347 358 431 251 297 230 229 260 270 263 291 391 320 281 296 264 334 204 218 242 234 232 246 329 -35 -48 -41 -41 -69 -82 -70 -107 -214 -50 -130 -83 -82 -71 -78 -71 -64 -65 -61 -52 -59 111 120 88 88 90 111 106 108 111 115 109 108 105 124 88 83 81 83 86 89 84 146 167 128 129 159 193 177 215 325 165 239 191 187 195 166 154 145 147 147 140 143 -17 -48 -59 -48 -13 -31 -15 12 5 25 -14 -36 -9 -24 -34 -73 -23 37 6 -17 12 89 83 32 54 58 38 58 93 64 106 58 54 80 86 29 40 49 117 80 65 74 106 130 91 102 71 69 73 81 59 82 73 90 89 110 63 113 72 80 74 82 62 311 500 86 228 121 192 346 202 411 187 34 -130 279 439 90 -116 -101 -2 69 -80 41 5 -20 -9 0 2 5 -3 1 -6 -1 -1 4 39 -73 -8 -2 5 -2 -2 44 -3 305 521 95 228 120 188 349 201 417 188 35 -134 239 512 97 -114 -106 1 71 -124 43 -100 53 32 -13 95 -49 -9 -84 125 51 -48 -40 85 235 56 -61 -128 -44 -176 -54 -69 -162 -102 -32 -25 -68 -160 -128 -163 -116 -34 -86 -81 -9 -32 -24 -51 -53 -97 -209 -19 4 62 155 65 11 163 111 119 78 241 85 38 41 94 267 80 -10 -75 53 33 -35 -73 -483 36 16 692 -403 -452 -457 -243 134 -207 238 387 658 212 410 559 -95 981 251 -118 875 4 4 10 10 10 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 -10 -13 0 0 4 -5 0 912 356 36 -497 536 602 797 548 229 238 -127 -516 -489 58 -355 -685 85 -932 -71 64 -709 -360 76 147 -960 -165 384 194 -766 112 -79 355 -435 19 632 122 594 90 -215 -821 749 -677 -17 386 -79 -226 -212 -25 -98 -47 16 147 -172 -43 132 465 145 -45 -50 24 43 -63 -6 -137 -359 175 -44 -80 17 -205 -254 255 -377 280 -286 73 -95 34 218 25 35 -49 -59 -57 -207 56 37 -684 145 346 506 -468 -164 153 269 -115 -191 283 -69 411 129 -273 -813 865 -613 -1 -6 14 -5 -18 46 -9 3 5 -2 -22 9 5 -22 11 10 -15 -1 -2 5 0 1,273 279 -111 463 702 218 603 1,314 117 317 -482 -81 -508 -574 -476 -1,278 -4 -717 749 -685 -33 97 6 -81 105 155 93 220 -4 38 -116 59 -67 -182 -287 -377 -5 2 -28 -32 -19 -8 881 254 117 217 311 -173 512 1,133 112 228 -98 37 -483 -44 -101 28 -444 -329 348 -1,299 13 299 -14 -134 150 236 294 -128 180 -40 206 -438 -51 159 -244 5 -1,303 441 -361 434 627 -10 -4 34 -13 -10 0 4 -2 5 6 0 -5 0 -2 2 -3 2 -4 2 -1 5 -28 -28 72 0 37 -118 85 16 -21 -73 104 -30 33 -17 5 -4 86 31 -5 62 -11 -53 -113 -165 92 -111 9 -72 -145 -37 -64 -30 104 366 -115 -105 -51 228 158 -43 -145 -24 -83 166 159 147 178 199 193 192 191 203 152 243 201 185 158 128 153 163 172 143 142 N/A 928 710 891 934 927 1015 925 953 976 756 998 981 816 589 644 638 696 649 656 700 N/A 651 522 561 580 612 635 578 603 607 411 629 638 511 441 430 493 556 477 525 572 N/A 302 276 248 252 274 316 312 300 294 226 342 289 279 310 172 161 248 190 183 167 N/A 1,186 998 1,116 1,145 1,156 1,225 1,222 1,221 1,291 1,029 1,222 1,309 1,017 782 745 802 819 760 754 806 N/A 490 441 466 474 519 518 503 500 520 404 551 544 441 431 353 388 451 415 406 408 N/A Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 46 Statistical Appendix MONETARY INDICATORS AND INTEREST RATES 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in SIT bn; since 1 January 2007 in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 16.6 67 68 68 68 68 68 68 67 67 67 67 67 67 Central government (S. 1311) 776.6 2,367 2,162 2,748 2,574 2,465 2,408 2,342 2,345 2,348 2,374 2,367 2,412 2,397 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 24.9 118 212 105 107 107 107 110 111 114 112 118 123 124 Households (S. 14, 15) 1289.4 6,818 7,827 5,748 5,892 6,015 6,157 6,323 6,468 6,607 6,830 6,818 6,918 7,009 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 3236.0 18,105 21,149 15,142 15,426 15,788 16,274 16,720 17,004 17,269 17,748 18,105 18,570 18,754 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 368.1 2,305 2,815 1,761 1,747 1,911 2,034 2,083 2,205 2,367 2,396 2,305 2,390 2,411 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 1158.7 2,401 3,666 2,033 2,257 2,211 2,218 2,439 2,448 2,460 2,580 2,401 2,455 2,432 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 2298.2 26,555 32,113 22,297 23,089 23,558 24,146 24,892 25,310 25,864 26,596 26,555 27,164 27,406 In foreign currency 3149.0 1,990 2,370 1,248 1,335 1,456 1,560 1,638 1,699 1,789 1,900 1,990 2,117 2,192 Securities, total 1286.8 3,570 3,346 3,992 3,577 3,484 3,492 3,488 3,573 3,511 3,544 3,570 3,586 3,529 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in SIT bn; since 1 January 2007 in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 2,903.4 20,029 23,129 18,066 18,367 18,446 18,880 19,299 19,386 19,579 19,558 20,029 20,088 20,674 Overnight 1,178.6 6,887 6,605 6,676 6,849 6,953 7,047 6,881 6,907 6,695 6,573 6,887 6,924 6,557 With agreed maturity -short-term 1,251.2 8,913 10,971 7,758 7,777 7,592 7,867 8,331 8,247 8,689 8,723 8,913 8,899 9,862 With agreed maturity -long-term 292.4 2,857 4,157 2,569 2,573 2,693 2,728 2,790 2,874 2,820 2,817 2,857 2,845 2,803 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 181.2 1,372 1,396 1,063 1,168 1,208 1,238 1,297 1,358 1,375 1,445 1,372 1,420 1,452 Deposits in foreign currency, total 1,454.5 559 490 597 615 610 605 628 608 589 585 559 571 560 Overnight 552.7 218 215 264 280 274 270 278 269 255 260 218 248 240 With agreed maturity -short-term 545.5 248 198 251 248 249 242 258 248 241 226 248 229 237 With agreed maturity -long-term 318.3 56 41 60 61 60 61 62 60 60 57 56 55 48 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 38.0 37 36 22 26 27 32 30 31 33 42 37 39 35 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.32 0.36 0.43 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.37 0.42 0.40 0.40 0.44 0.41 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 2.96 3.36 4.45 3.07 3.15 3.26 3.36 3.41 3.61 3.89 3.83 4.04 4.08 3.95 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 4.56 5.80 6.88 5.35 5.37 5.36 5.79 5.98 6.16 6.45 6.44 6.58 6.75 6.40 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 4.64 5.76 6.03 - 4.86 5.12 6.49 - 5.76 5.59 - 6.25 - - INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operations | 2.781 3.851 3.851 3.75 | 3.75 | 4.001 4.001 4.001 4.001 4.001 4.001 4.001 4.001 4.00 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates 3.58 4.28 4.63 3.98 4.07 4.15 4.22 4.54 4.74 4.69 4.64 4.85 4.48 4.36 6-month rates 3.58 4.35 4.72 4.10 4.20 4.28 4.36 4.59 4.75 4.66 4.63 4.82 4.50 4.36 LIBOR CHF 3-month rates 1.51 2.55 2.58 2.32 2.41 2.55 2.72 2.80 2.82 2.79 2.75 2.77 2.70 2.74 6-month rates 1.65 2.65 2.69 2.44 2.54 2.70 2.85 2.86 2.90 2.89 2.85 2.84 2.77 2.77 Sources of data: BS, BBA - British Bankers' Association. Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 47 Statistical Appendix 2008 2009 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1|2|3|4|5|6|7|8 66 66 66 65 66 66 67 69 69 68 69 87 103 121 140 142 151 167 2,392 2,123 2,162 2,052 2,030 2,069 2,046 2,058 2,176 2,162 2,704 2,867 3,134 3,288 3,542 3,472 3,456 3,427 124 128 129 133 136 143 178 184 181 212 223 229 233 243 254 251 257 262 7,133 7,235 7,318 7,409 7,521 7,603 7,705 7,857 7,785 7,827 7,831 7,852 7,868 7,910 7,946 7,951 8,055 8,135 18,938 19,351 19,616 20,064 20,404 20,619 20,872 21,134 21,092 21,149 21,346 21,429 21,469 21,509 21,516 21,517 21,557 21,671 2,494 2,558 2,568 2,736 2,726 2,729 2,798 2,815 2,845 2,815 2,815 2,814 2,851 2,869 2,838 2,835 2,838 2,868 2,444 2,624 2,375 2,386 2,403 2,400 2,737 2,965 2,963 3,666 3,887 3,826 3,786 3,829 4,008 4,365 4,382 4,334 27,768 28,503 28,871 29,380 29,805 30,108 30,888 31,444 31,594 32,113 32,388 32,663 32,648 32,790 33,140 33,353 33,601 33,628 2,280 2,276 2,259 2,263 2,228 2,271 2,344 2,512 2,371 2,370 2,372 2,315 2,190 2,172 2,122 2,059 2,017 2,003 3,477 3,239 3,038 3,137 3,188 3,184 3,104 3,059 3,077 3,346 4,046 4,040 4,504 4,686 4,843 4,979 4,925 5,067 20,779 20,774 20,613 21,144 21,341 21,465 21,992 22,177 22,385 23,129 23,563 24,487 24,334 25,649 26,020 26,576 26,206 25,956 6,787 6,711 6,841 7,071 6,744 6,703 6,918 6,666 6,577 6,605 6,415 6,421 6,609 6,610 6,876 7,163 6,862 7,011 9,745 9,734 9,292 9,439 9,936 9,929 10,038 10,530 10,659 10,971 11,246 12,053 11,705 12,951 13,053 12,015 10,560 10,067 2,814 2,926 3,046 3,170 3,241 3,378 3,519 3,555 3,727 4,157 4,542 4,729 4,827 4,876 4,868 6,182 7,600 7,712 1,433 1,403 1,434 1,464 1,420 1,455 1,517 1,426 1,422 1,396 1,360 1,284 1,193 1,212 1,223 1,216 1,184 1,166 520 529 527 488 491 502 493 537 551 490 504 502 491 489 495 492 480 462 226 222 225 218 220 228 218 244 247 215 242 230 233 231 251 249 239 240 220 224 224 196 192 190 196 213 227 198 181 195 177 180 166 170 166 150 45 45 42 42 43 42 43 44 42 41 42 43 42 42 41 39 39 38 29 38 36 32 36 42 36 36 35 36 39 34 39 36 37 34 36 34 0.41 0.43 0.46 0.46 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.51 0.52 0.43 0.48 0.40 0.34 0.28 0.25 0.23 0.23 - 4.03 4.14 4.20 4.30 4.40 4.39 4.53 4.65 4.56 4.45 4.08 3.40 2.82 2.44 2.28 2.40 2.35 - 6.61 6.53 6.53 6.63 6.71 6.95 6.99 7.10 7.17 6.88 7.05 6.63 5.75 6.75 6.37 6.59 6.74 - 5.63 6.32 5.47 6.63 6.91 6.53 6.94 6.76 7.24 7.74 6.61 6.35 6.34 6.05 6.10 6.19 6.36 - 4.00 4.001 4.001 4.001 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 3.75 | 3.25 | 2.50 | 2.00 | 2.001 1.50 | 1.25 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 4.60 4.78 4.86 4.94 4.96 4.97 5.02 5.11 4.24 3.29 2.46 1.94 1.64 1.42 1.28 1.23 0.98 - 4.59 4.80 4.90 5.09 5.15 5.16 5.22 5.18 4.29 3.37 2.54 2.03 1.78 1.61 1.48 1.44 1.21 - 2.83 2.85 2.78 2.84 2.79 2.75 2.78 3.00 1.97 0.91 0.57 0.51 0.44 0.40 0.40 0.40 - - 2.87 2.93 2.89 2.98 2.94 2.89 2.92 3.09 2.16 1.08 0.71 0.65 0.58 0.54 0.54 0.52 - - Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 48 Statistical Appendix PUBLIC FINANCE 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009 2007 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS-IMF methodology), current prices, EUR m GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 12,958.7 14,006.1 15,339.2 3,454.0 3,429.1 4,059.8 3,369.3 4,005.7 3,857.5 4,106.6 3,282.6 3,543.6 1,182.3 1,222.7 1,024.1 1,323.7 Current revenues 12,395.3 13,467.2 14,792.3 3,374.9 3,332.1 3,805.1 3,274.0 3,881.0 3,733.8 3,903.4 3,204.0 3,322.8 1,159.9 1,168.9 1,003.3 1,259.4 Tax revenues 1 1,762.0 12,757.9 13,937.4 3,199.7 3,123.6 3,606.0 3,110.0 3,702.0 3,472.0 3,653.3 3,058.9 3,164.5 1,089.8 1,099.5 934.2 1,194.1 Taxes on income and profit 2,735.3 2,917.7 3,442.2 914.3 646.3 769.4 694.4 1,106.5 806.5 834.7 707.3 617.5 168.7 251.4 226.3 233.4 Social security contributions 4,231.2 4,598.0 5,095.0 1,123.7 1,139.1 1,251.8 1,203.1 1,254.2 1,272.9 1,364.8 1,285.3 1,280.9 379.2 377.9 382.1 385.1 Taxes on payroll and workforce 472.9 418.1 258.0 99.7 101.5 120.9 59.4 62.2 63.5 72.9 7.4 7.2 34.1 33.6 33.9 34.1 Taxes on property 189.1 206.4 214.9 58.0 67.3 59.0 27.5 62.6 69.6 55.2 20.6 51.5 20.8 31.4 15.2 16.3 Domestic taxes on goods and services 4,077.3 4,498.6 4,805.3 973.0 1,135.5 1,372.5 1,099.4 1,181.7 1,227.8 1,296.4 1,015.4 1,177.5 475.4 395.4 264.6 514.5 Taxes on international trade & transactions 50.7 117.1 120.1 30.7 33.2 31.7 25.6 33.7 31.0 29.8 22.5 29.2 11.5 9.6 12.0 10.4 Other taxes 5.4 2.1 1.8 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.7 -0.6 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 Non-tax revenues 633.3 709.2 854.9 175.2 208.6 199.1 164.0 179.0 261.8 250.1 145.1 158.3 70.1 69.4 69.0 65.3 Capital revenues 166.8 136.6 117.3 15.2 39.6 62.1 28.0 26.9 28.8 33.6 14.1 29.7 13.5 17.1 8.9 14.6 Grants 5.4 11.9 10.4 2.8 2.0 5.0 2.0 2.1 3.1 3.1 2.9 1.7 0.7 -0.1 1.4 1.4 Transferred revenues 42.8 42.5 53.9 1.4 0.4 40.5 1.2 0.9 0.6 51.3 0.2 1.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.8 Receipts from the EU budget 348.4 348.0 365.4 59.6 55.1 147.1 64.0 94.8 91.3 115.3 61.4 187.9 8.1 36.6 10.4 47.6 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TOTAL EXPENDITURES 13,208.7 13,915.5 15,441.7 3,392.6 3,240.0 4,081.8 3,388.6 3,792.9 3,628.8 4,631.4 3,877.1 4,064.9 1,094.3 1,090.3 1,055.3 1,140.5 Current expenditures 5,689.0 5,950.9 6,557.5 1,448.5 1,362.2 1,658.2 1,575.9 1,581.7 1,513.7 1,886.2 1,768.8 1,682.6 450.8 463.5 447.9 483.8 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3,180.3 3,276.9 3,578.9 851.7 814.4 825.0 819.7 906.8 892.5 959.8 965.7 1,006.1 271.1 273.7 269.6 266.2 Expenditures on goods and services 2,073.2 2,212.2 2,527.5 482.6 518.0 721.3 523.1 589.3 586.1 829.0 546.5 617.3 170.2 183.4 164.4 187.4 Interest payments 376.4 357.0 335.2 105.3 17.5 36.7 221.0 69.8 12.9 31.5 246.7 48.4 6.8 3.3 7.4 26.6 Reserves 59.0 104.8 116.0 8.9 12.3 75.2 12.1 15.8 22.2 65.9 10.0 10.9 2.7 3.2 6.5 3.7 Current transfers 5,925.8 6,143.9 6,742.2 1,665.6 1,456.0 1,565.1 1,489.9 1,856.8 1,567.3 1,828.2 1,748.2 1,936.1 525.2 467.0 463.7 473.7 Subsidies 402.9 423.4 476.5 137.9 88.3 92.8 60.5 243.0 57.7 115.3 165.0 126.9 57.3 13.0 18.0 18.0 Current transfers to individuals and households 4,871.5 5,093.3 5,619.2 1,359.2 1,211.1 1,304.0 1,303.5 1,448.9 1,344.8 1,522.0 1,436.2 1,614.8 406.4 403.6 401.1 405.0 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 624.1 595.3 598.3 158.4 145.3 160.8 118.7 151.2 153.2 175.2 140.0 178.5 57.6 47.1 40.6 49.6 Current transfers abroad 27.4 32.0 48.2 10.2 11.3 7.6 7.2 13.6 11.6 15.7 7.0 15.9 4.0 3.3 4.0 1.1 Capital expenditures 901.4 1,130.5 1,255.5 162.9 266.9 567.3 149.0 215.9 350.0 540.6 175.3 236.6 72.2 104.2 90.5 117.3 Capital transfers 404.6 334.3 458.6 55.0 69.3 181.4 30.6 62.3 130.8 234.9 35.9 112.9 22.3 23.2 23.8 35.6 Payments to the EU budget 287.9 355.9 427.9 60.6 85.6 109.8 143.2 76.2 67.0 141.5 148.9 96.6 23.7 32.4 29.5 30.1 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -250.0 90.6 -102.5 - - - - - - - - - - - - Source of data: MF Bulletin. Note: in line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the state are not consolidated. Data prior to 2007 are recalculated on the basis of the irrevocable SIT/EUR exchange rate = 239.64. Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 49 Statistical Appendix 2007 2008 2009 11 1 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1,323.1 1,413.0 1,134.1 1,100.1 1,135.2 1,463.1 1,259.9 1,282.8 1,342.2 1,226.0 1,289.3 1,310.0 1,305.0 1,491.6 1,123.2 1,067.7 1,091.7 1,199.9 1,102.2 1,241.5 1,236.3 1,309.4 1,104.1 1,073.5 1,096.4 1,435.7 1,228.7 1,216.6 1,306.1 1,164.7 1,263.0 1,295.2 1,184.7 1,423.5 1,112.4 1,029.2 1,062.4 1,124.2 1,047.1 1,151.5 1,168.1 1,243.8 1,057.4 1,015.6 1,037.0 1,374.1 1,175.5 1,152.4 1,253.4 1,066.2 1,152.4 1,234.1 1,126.5 1,292.7 1,068.5 980.1 1,010.3 1,076.2 996.5 1,091.7 235.7 300.3 223.0 221.2 250.1 498.3 316.7 291.5 297.9 256.5 252.1 261.1 261.4 312.2 249.4 239.9 218.1 195.9 229.5 192.1 397.3 469.4 394.7 400.0 408.4 419.0 415.8 419.5 425.8 414.8 432.3 435.0 434.9 494.9 433.4 423.7 428.1 433.1 423.8 423.9 36.5 50.3 20.0 19.5 19.9 20.9 20.4 20.9 21.3 20.4 21.8 22.1 22.7 28.1 3.2 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.4 29.3 13.3 8.7 10.5 8.3 12.0 28.6 22.1 23.0 26.5 20.0 16.3 26.6 12.3 5.3 7.9 7.4 7.9 15.8 27.9 459.9 398.0 404.6 354.7 340.1 411.5 383.4 386.9 475.3 336.2 416.3 490.6 371.0 434.9 370.7 298.5 346.2 424.3 316.7 436.5 9.1 12.2 6.3 9.3 9.9 12.3 10.5 10.9 9.8 11.5 9.7 10.2 9.7 9.9 6.3 8.1 8.1 12.4 8.2 8.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 -1.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 68.1 65.7 46.6 58.0 59.4 61.6 53.1 64.3 52.7 98.5 110.6 61.1 58.1 130.9 43.9 49.1 52.2 48.0 50.6 59.7 15.7 31.9 11.1 9.6 7.3 6.2 5.8 14.9 12.9 6.8 9.0 6.1 6.2 21.2 2.8 5.9 5.3 3.9 15.5 10.4 0.8 2.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.8 1.6 0.3 1.2 0.6 1.0 1.6 0.2 0.7 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.7 39.7 -0.1 0.4 0.1 0.7 1.1 -0.4 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.4 49.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 1.0 30.6 69.0 17.7 16.1 30.2 19.3 25.3 50.2 21.5 53.7 16.1 7.7 63.6 43.9 7.5 31.9 21.9 70.6 39.3 78.0 1,249.6 1,691.7 1,030.3 1,140.4 1,218.0 1,228.6 1,363.5 1,200.8 1,139.6 1,179.6 1,309.7 1,259.5 1,452.7 1,919.2 1,119.8 1,408.5 1,348.8 1,255.5 1,477.6 1,331.8 500.7 673.7 451.0 512.3 612.7 528.6 544.9 508.2 507.2 486.1 520.4 535.2 562.4 788.7 502.2 619.0 647.6 569.3 580.8 532.6 273.5 285.3 268.6 266.0 285.1 277.7 338.9 290.3 292.5 292.5 307.6 292.9 306.4 360.5 305.5 333.4 326.8 312.8 374.1 319.2 212.1 321.9 155.0 168.6 199.5 184.8 199.2 205.3 204.0 185.7 196.5 207.5 241.4 380.1 171.8 178.9 195.8 212.5 202.0 202.8 4.9 5.2 22.9 74.2 123.9 61.4 2.5 5.8 4.9 2.2 5.7 22.7 2.0 6.8 21.4 103.1 122.3 41.7 1.9 4.8 10.3 61.3 4.4 3.5 4.1 4.6 4.3 6.8 5.9 5.7 10.6 12.0 12.5 41.3 3.5 3.7 2.8 2.3 2.7 5.9 547.1 544.3 460.5 517.3 512.1 580.1 707.5 569.2 513.9 535.3 518.1 528.4 680.2 619.6 515.3 638.3 594.5 571.1 761.3 603.8 25.6 49.2 5.0 35.0 20.6 86.7 83.7 72.6 16.6 19.4 21.7 27.7 18.5 69.1 9.1 110.6 45.3 31.3 54.7 40.9 470.5 428.5 418.1 441.1 444.3 445.0 566.4 437.5 442.0 464.4 438.4 448.8 600.7 472.5 463.1 480.6 492.5 487.2 643.7 483.9 48.9 62.3 35.7 37.7 45.3 46.2 50.5 54.5 54.0 48.4 50.7 51.4 50.3 73.5 40.9 46.4 52.7 51.0 56.3 71.2 2.2 4.3 1.8 3.5 1.9 2.2 6.9 4.6 1.3 3.0 7.3 0.5 10.7 4.5 2.2 0.7 4.1 1.5 6.6 7.8 121.0 329.0 53.7 44.8 50.5 69.3 68.4 78.2 77.7 98.2 174.1 94.5 96.1 349.9 57.4 60.5 57.4 65.6 83.7 87.3 49.4 96.3 9.0 10.7 10.8 18.9 19.2 24.3 21.8 38.0 70.9 53.0 81.1 100.9 12.8 6.3 16.8 17.1 27.8 68.0 31.3 48.4 56.1 55.3 31.9 31.7 23.6 20.9 18.9 21.9 26.2 48.4 32.9 60.1 32.1 84.4 32.4 32.4 24.1 40.1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 50 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Acronyms Acronyms BS - Bank of Slovenia, EC - European Comission, ECB - European Central Bank, EMU - European Monetary Union, EU -European Union , ESS - Employment Service of Slovenia, GDP - Gross domestic product, HICP - Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, ICT - Information and Communication Technology, IEA - International Energy Agency, IMAD - Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, IMF - International Monetary Fund, MF - Ministry of Finance, NFI - nonmonetary financial institutions, OECD - Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, RS - oRepif Slovenia, PPA - Public Payments Administration of the Republic of Slovenia, SCA - Standard classification of activities, SITC -Standard International Trade Classification, SORS - Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, ULC - Unit Labour Cost, WEF - World Economic Forum. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities (SCA) A- Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B- Mining and quarrying, C- Manufacturing, 10- Manufacture of food products, 11-Manufacture of beverages, 12- Manufacture of tobacco products, 13- Manufacture of textiles, 14- Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15- Manufacture of leather and related products, 16- Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17- Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18-Printing and reproduction of recorded media, 19 - Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, 20 - Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21- Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22- Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23- Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24- Manufacture of basic metals, 25- Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26- Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27- Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28- Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c., 29- Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, 30- Manufacture of other transport equipment, 31-Manufacture of furniture, 32- Other manufacturing, 33- Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D- Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, E- Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities, F-Constrution, G- Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H- Transportation and storage, I-Accommodation and food service activities, J- Information and communication, K- Financial and insurance activities, L-Real estate activities., M- Professional, scientific and technical activities, N- Administrative and support service activities, O- Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P- Education, Q- Human health and social work activities, R- Arts, entertainment and recreation, S- Other service activities, T- Activities of households as employers, undiferentiated goods - and services - reducing activities of households for own use, U- Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AT-Austria, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, EL-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, I-Italy, IE-Ireland, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LV-Latvia, LT-Lithuania, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America.