25. JANUAR 2007 25 JANUARY 2007 Št./No 8 19 GRADBENIŠTVO CONSTRUCTION Št./No 3 POSLOVNE TENDENCE V GRADBENIŠTVU, SLOVENIJA, JANUAR 2007 BUSINESS TENDENCY IN CONSTRUCTION, SLOVENIA, JANUARY 2007 Direktorji so poslovne tendence v gradbeništvu ocenili januarja 2007 slabše kot pretekli mesec. Desezonirana vrednost kazalnika zaupanja je bila za 1 odstotno točko nižja kot pretekli mesec. V primerjavi z lanskim januarjem je bila višja za 25 odstotnih točk in za 8 odstotnih točk je bila višja od povprečja lanskega leta. In January 2007, managers estimated business tendencies in construction as being worse than in the previous month. The seasonally adjusted value of the confidence indicator fell by 1 percentage point compared to the previous month. Compared to January 2006 it was up by 25 percentage points and it was 8 percentage points above last year’s average. V tem mesecu posebej izstopajo še kazalniki pričakovano zaposlovanje, pričakovane cene in število mesecev zagotovljenega dela; tokrat so namreč dosegli najvišje vrednosti v celotnem opazovanem obdobju. In January the expected employment, expected prices and assured work indicators reached the highest values in the whole observed period. Kazalniki stanj so se v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem večinoma izboljšali; izjeme so le kazalniki zaposlovanje, cene in poslovno stanje. Pričakovanja za naslednje tri mesece so ugodna. Compared to the previous month, the observed indicators for the appreciation of the situation mostly improved, except for employment, prices and business situation. The expectations for the next three months are favourable. 1. KAZALNIK ZAUPANJA V GRADBENIŠTVU1) V SLOVENIJI IN EU2), MAREC 2002–JANUAR 2007 CONSTRUCTION CONFIDENCE INDICATOR1) IN SLOVENIA AND EU2), MARCH 2002–JANUARY 2007 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % desezonirani podatki - Slovenija / seasonally adjusted data - Slovenia dolgoletno povprečje / long-term average desezonirani podatki - EU / seasonally adjusted data - EU © SURS 1) Kazalnik zaupanja je povprečje odgovorov (ravnotežij) na vprašanji o sedanjih skupnih naročilih in pričakovanem zaposlovanju. Podatki so desezonirani. The confidence indicator is an average of responses (balances) to questions on overall order-books assessments and employment expectations. Data are seasonally adjusted. 2) Vir / Source: http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/indicators/businessandconsumersurveys_en.htm. Podatki za EU za zadnji mesec niso na voljo. / Data for EU for the last month are not available. Statistične informacije, št. 8/2007 2 Rapid reports No 8/2007 2. GIBANJE EKONOMSKIH KAZALNIKOV V GRADBENIŠTVU V SLOVENIJI, MAREC 2002–JANUAR 2007 EVOLUTION OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS IN CONSTRUCTION IN SLOVENIA, MARCH 2002–JANUARY 2007 Obseg gradbenih del / Assessment of building activity -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 % © SURS -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 % © SURS Poslovno stanje / Business situation Tehnične zmogljivosti1) / Technical capacity1) -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 % © SURS Zagotovljeno delo2) / Assured work in hand2) 3,5 3,8 4,1 4,4 4,7 5 5,3 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 mesec/month © SURS Ocena stanj Appreciation of situation Pričakovanja v naslednjih 3 mesecih Expectations over the next 3 months -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 % © SURS Skupna naročila / Overall order-books -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 70 90 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 % © SURS Pričakovana skupna naročila / Order-books expectations -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 % © SURS Zaposlovanje / Employment -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 % © SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje / Employment expectations Cene / Prices -45 -30 -15 0 15 30 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 % © SURS Pričakovane cene / Price expectations -10 0 10 20 30 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 % © SURS ⎯ originalni podatki / raw data desezonirani podatki / seasonally adjusted data - - - - - dolgoletno povprečje / long-term average 1) Količina in kakovost opreme glede na povpraševanje v naslednjih 12 mesecih. / Amount and quality of equipment regarding expected demand in the next 12 months. 2) Že začeto ali s pogodbami dogovorjeno delo pri običajnih delovnih urah. / With normal working hours, works in progress and contracts in hand. Statistične informacije, št. 8/2007 Rapid reports No 8/2007 3 3. GIBANJE EKONOMSKIH KAZALNIKOV GLEDE NA VRSTO GRADBENIH OBJEKTOV, SLOVENIJA, JANUAR 2006– JANUAR 2007 EVOLUTION OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS BY THE TYPE OF CONSTRUCTION, SLOVENIA, JANUARY 2006– JANUARY 2007 3.1 Gibanje ekonomskih kazalnikov za stavbe, Slovenija, januar 2006–januar 2007 Evolution of economic indicators for buildings, Slovenia, January 2006–January 2007 Obseg gradbenih del / Assessment of building activity -60 -20 20 60 100 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Poslovno stanje / Business situation -40 -20 0 20 40 60 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Tehnične zmogljivosti1) / Technical capacity1) -5 0 5 10 15 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Zagotovljeno delo2) / Assured work in hand2) 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 5,5 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 mesec/month © SURS Ocena stanj Appreciation of situation Pričakovanja v naslednjih 3 mesecih Expectations over the next 3 months Skupna naročila / Overall order-books -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Pričakovana skupna naročila / Order-books expectations -30 -10 10 30 50 70 90 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Zaposlovanje / Employment -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje / Employment expectations -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Cene / Prices -20 -10 0 10 20 30 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Pričakovane cene / Price expectations 0 10 20 30 40 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS ⎯ stavbe buildings ⎯ gradbeništvo construction - - - - - - dolgoletno povprečje long-term average 1) Količina in kakovost opreme glede na povpraševanje v naslednjih 12 mesecih. / Amount and quality of equipment regarding expected demand in the next 12 months. 2) Že začeto ali s pogodbami dogovorjeno delo pri običajnih delovnih urah. / With normal working hours, works in progress and contracts in hand. Statistične informacije, št. 8/2007 4 Rapid reports No 8/2007 3.2 Gibanje ekonomskih kazalnikov za stanovanjske stavbe, Slovenija, januar 2006–januar 2007 Evolution of economic indicators for residential buildings, Slovenia, January 2006–January 2007 Obseg gradbenih del / Assessment of building activity -60 -20 20 60 100 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Poslovno stanje / Business situation -40 -20 0 20 40 60 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Tehnične zmogljivosti1) / Technical capacity1) -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Zagotovljeno delo2) / Assured work in hand2) 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 5,5 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 mesec/month © SURS Ocena stanj Appreciation of situation Pričakovanja v naslednjih 3 mesecih Expectations over the next 3 months Skupna naročila / Overall order-books -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 70 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Pričakovana skupna naročila / Order-books expectations -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Zaposlovanje / Employment -30 -10 10 30 50 70 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje / Employment expectations -20 0 20 40 60 80 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Cene / Prices -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Pričakovane cene / Price expectations -15 0 15 30 45 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS ⎯ stanovanjske stavbe residential buildings ⎯ gradbeništvo Construction - - - - - - dolgoletno povprečje long-term average 1) Količina in kakovost opreme glede na povpraševanje v naslednjih 12 mesecih. / Amount and quality of equipment regarding expected demand in the next 12 months. 2) Že začeto ali s pogodbami dogovorjeno delo pri običajnih delovnih urah. / With normal working hours, works in progress and contracts in hand. Statistične informacije, št. 8/2007 Rapid reports No 8/2007 5 3.3 Gibanje ekonomskih kazalnikov za gradbene inženirske objekte, Slovenija, januar 2006–januar 2007 Evolution of economic indicators for civil engineering, Slovenia, January 2006–January 2007 Obseg gradbenih del / Assessment of building activity -80 -40 0 40 80 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Poslovno stanje / Business situation -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 70 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Tehnične zmogljivosti1) / Technical capacity1) -5 0 5 10 15 20 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Zagotovljeno delo2) / Assured work in hand2) 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 5,5 6,0 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 mesec/month © SURS Ocena stanj Appreciation of situation Pričakovanja v naslednjih 3 mesecih Expectations over the next 3 months Skupna naročila / Overall order-books -70 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Pričakovana skupna naročila / Order-books expectations -60 -30 0 30 60 90 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Zaposlovanje / Employment -30 -10 10 30 50 70 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje / Employment expectations -45 -30 -15 0 15 30 45 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Cene / Prices -20 -10 0 10 20 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Pričakovane cene / Price expectations 0 10 20 30 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS ⎯ gradbeni inženirski objekti civil engineering ⎯ gradbeništvo Construction - - - - - - dolgoletno povprečje long-term average 1) Količina in kakovost opreme glede na povpraševanje v naslednjih 12 mesecih. / Amount and quality of equipment regarding expected demand in the next 12 months. 2) Že začeto ali s pogodbami dogovorjeno delo pri običajnih delovnih urah. / With normal working hours, works in progress and contracts in hand. Statistične informacije, št. 8/2007 6 Rapid reports No 8/2007 4. GIBANJE EKONOMSKIH KAZALNIKOV V PODJETJIH PO DEJAVNOSTIH, SLOVENIJA, JANUAR 2006– JANUAR 2007 EVOLUTION OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS IN ENTERPRISES BY ACTIVITY, SLOVENIA, JANUARY 2006– JANUARY 2007 4.1 Gibanje ekonomskih kazalnikov v podjetjih z dejavnostjo gradnja objektov in delov objektov, Slovenija, januar 2006–januar 2007 Evolution of economic indicators in enterprises engaged in construction works, Slovenia, January 2006–January 2007 Obseg gradbenih del / Assessment of building activity -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Poslovno stanje / Business situation -45 -25 -5 15 35 55 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Tehnične zmogljivosti1) / Technical capacity1) -10 0 10 20 30 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Zagotovljeno delo2) / Assured work in hand2) 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 5,5 6,0 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 mesec/month © SURS Ocena stanj Appreciation of situation Pričakovanja v naslednjih 3 mesecih Expectations over the next 3 months Skupna naročila / Overall order-books -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Pričakovana skupna naročila / Order-books expectations -50 -25 0 25 50 75 100 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Zaposlovanje / Employment -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje / Employment expectations -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Cene / Prices -15 -5 5 15 25 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Pričakovane cene / Price expectations 0 5 10 15 20 25 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS ⎯ gradnja objektov in delov objektov construction works ⎯ gradbeništvo Construction - - - - - - dolgoletno povprečje long-term average 1) Količina in kakovost opreme glede na povpraševanje v naslednjih 12 mesecih. / Amount and quality of equipment regarding expected demand in the next 12 months. 2) Že začeto ali s pogodbami dogovorjeno delo pri običajnih delovnih urah. / With normal working hours, works in progress and contracts in hand. Statistične informacije, št. 8/2007 Rapid reports No 8/2007 7 4.2 Gibanje ekonomskih kazalnikov v podjetjih z dejavnostjo inštalacije pri gradnjah, Slovenija, januar 2006–januar 2007 Evolution of economic indicators in enterprises engaged in installing equipment and fixtures, Slovenia, January 2006–January 2007 Obseg gradbenih del / Assessment of building activity -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Poslovno stanje / Business situation -45 -30 -15 0 15 30 45 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Tehnične zmogljivosti1) / Technical capacity1) -10 0 10 20 30 40 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Zagotovljeno delo2) / Assured work in hand2) 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 5,5 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 mesec/month © SURS Ocena stanj Appreciation of situation Pričakovanja v naslednjih 3 mesecih Expectations over the next 3 months Skupna naročila / Overall order-books -55 -35 -15 5 25 45 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Pričakovana skupna naročila / Order-books expectations -30 0 30 60 90 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Zaposlovanje / Employment -30 -10 10 30 50 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje / Employment expectations -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Cene / Prices -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Pričakovane cene / Price expectations -20 -10 0 10 20 30 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS ⎯ inštalacije pri gradnjah installation of equipment and fixtures ⎯ gradbeništvo Construction - - - - - - dolgoletno povprečje long-term average 1) Količina in kakovost opreme glede na povpraševanje v naslednjih 12 mesecih. / Amount and quality of equipment regarding expected demand in the next 12 months. 2) Že začeto ali s pogodbami dogovorjeno delo pri običajnih delovnih urah. / With normal working hours, works in progress and contracts in hand. Statistične informacije, št. 8/2007 8 Rapid reports No 8/2007 4.3 Gibanje ekonomskih kazalnikov v podjetjih z dejavnostjo zaključna gradbena dela, Slovenija, januar 2006–januar 2007 Evolution of economic indicators in enterprises engaged in finishing works, Slovenia, January 2006–January 2007 Obseg gradbenih del / Assessment of building activity -70 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 70 90 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Poslovno stanje / Business situation -40 -20 0 20 40 60 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Tehnične zmogljivosti1) / Technical capacity1) -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Zagotovljeno delo2) / Assured work in hand2) 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 5,5 6,0 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 mesec/month © SURS Ocena stanj Appreciation of situation Pričakovanja v naslednjih 3 mesecih Expectations over the next 3 months Skupna naročila / Overall order-books -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Pričakovana skupna naročila / Order-books expectations -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Zaposlovanje / Employment -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 35 45 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje / Employment expectations -30 -15 0 15 30 45 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Cene / Prices -20 -10 0 10 20 30 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS Pričakovane cene / Price expectations -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 % © SURS ⎯ zaključna gradbena dela finishing works ⎯ gradbeništvo Construction - - - - - - dolgoletno povprečje long-term average 1) Količina in kakovost opreme glede na povpraševanje v naslednjih 12 mesecih. / Amount and quality of equipment regarding expected demand in the next 12 months. 2) Že začeto ali s pogodbami dogovorjeno delo pri običajnih delovnih urah. / With normal working hours, works in progress and contracts in hand. Statistične informacije, št. 8/2007 Rapid reports No 8/2007 9 5. GIBANJE EKONOMSKIH KAZALNIKOV V GRADBENIŠTVU V SLOVENIJI IN EU, MAREC 2002–JANUAR 20071) EVOLUTION OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS IN CONSTRUCTION IN SLOVENIA ANDTHE EU, MARCH 2002– JANUARY 20071) Obseg gradbenih del / Assessment of building activity -20 0 20 40 60 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 % © SURS Zagotovljeno delo2) / Assured work in hand2) 3,5 4,5 5,5 6,5 7,5 8,5 9,5 10,5 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 mesec/month © SURS Skupna naročila / Overall order-books -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 % © SURS Pričakovane cene / Price expectations -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 % © SURS Pričakovano zaposlovanje / Employment expectations -20 -10 0 10 20 30 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 % © SURS Slovenija / Slovenia EU 1) Vir / Source: http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/indicators/businessandconsumersurveys_en.htm. Podatki o EU za zadnji mesec niso na voljo. Podatki so desezonirani. / Data for the EU for the last month are not available. Data are seasonally adjusted. 2) Že začeto ali s pogodbami dogovorjeno delo pri običajnih delovnih urah. Kazalnik opazujejo v EU vsake 3 mesece. / With normal working hours, works in progress and contracts in hand. In the EU the indicator is observed every three months. Statistične informacije, št. 8/2007 10 Rapid reports No 8/2007 6. OMEJITVENI DEJAVNIKI V GRADBENIŠTVU V SLOVENIJI, MAREC 2002–JANUAR 2007 FACTORS LIMITING BUILDING ACTIVITY IN SLOVENIA, MARCH 2002–JANUARY 2007 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% M 2002 A M J J A S O N D J 2003 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2004 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2005 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2006 F M A M J J A S O N D J 2007 ni omejitev / no limits težave s povpraševanjem / weakness in demand težave s ponudbo / supply difficulties hude omejitve / severe obstacles © SURS Graf ponazarja deleže zaposlenih v gradbeništvu, ki imajo naslednje skupine težav: – Skupina "ni omejitev" zajema zaposlene, ki se ne soočajo z omejitvami. – Skupina "težave s povpraševanjem" zajema zaposlene, ki imajo težave z nezadostnim povpraševanjem in konkurenco v dejavnosti. – Skupina "težave s ponudbo" zajema zaposlene, ki imajo težave s slabimi vremenskimi pogoji, visokimi finančnimi stroški, visokimi stroški materiala in dela, težave pri pridobivanju kreditov. V to skupino sodijo tudi podjetja, ki imajo težave s pomanjkanjem usposobljenih delavcev, opreme in materialov. – Skupina "hude omejitve" zajema zaposlene, ki imajo hkrati težave z dejavniki iz skupine "šibko povpraševanje" in z dejavniki iz skupine "težave s preskrbo". The chart on production obstacles shows the share of employees who are facing the following groups of problems: – Group "no limits" includes employees with no limits in building activity. – Group "weakness in demand" includes employees who are facing insufficient demand and competition in own sector. – Group "supply difficulties" includes employees who are facing bad weather conditions, high cost of finance, materials and/or labour; difficulties with access to bank credits, lack of equipment, and shortage of skilled labour and shortage of materials. – Group "severe obstacles" includes employees who are facing at the same time problems from the group "weakness in demand" and those from the group "supply difficulties". Statistične informacije, št. 8/2007 Rapid reports No 8/2007 11 METODOLOŠKA POJASNILA METHODOLOGICAL EXPLANATIONS NAMEN STATISTIČNEGA RAZISKOVANJA PURPOSE OF STATISTICAL SURVEY Namen kvalitativne Ankete o poslovnih tendencah v gradbeništvu (PA-GRAD/M) je mesečno pridobivanje informacij o trenutnih stanjih glavnih ekonomskih kazalnikov ter ocenitev njihovega gibanja v naslednjih mesecih. Rezultati anket so osnova za izračun kazalnika zaupanja v gradbeništvu. The purpose of the qualitative Survey on Business Tendency in Construction (hereinafter: PA-GRAD/M) is to get monthly information about current situations of major economic indicators and to evaluate their movement in the following months. The results of the survey are the basis for evaluation of the construction confidence indicator. Anketo o poslovnih tendencah v gradbeništvu izvajamo v Sloveniji od marca 2002 s poenotenim vprašalnikom, na podlagi poenotene metodologije in z enako periodiko, kot jo izvajajo v državah članicah Evropske unije že več desetletij. Zato so vsi podatki neposredno primerljivi. We have been carrying out the Survey on Business Tendency in Construction in Slovenia since March 2002 with the harmonised questionnaire, methodology and periodicity, which have been used in EU Member States for several decades. Therefore, all data are directly comparable. ENOTE OPAZOVANJA OBSERVATION UNITS Opazujemo podjetja, ki so razvrščena v gradbeništvo, to je v oddelek 45 Standardne klasifikacije dejavnosti (SKD), in imajo 11 zaposlenih ali več ter so bila izbrana na podlagi dveh meril, in sicer: We are monitoring units that are registered in construction – division 45 of the Standard Classification of Activities (SKD) and have 11 or more employees. They were selected by two criteria: − velikosti (število zaposlenih, skladno z zakonom o gospodarskih družbah) in − razvrstitve podjetja po SKD. − the size of the enterprise (the number of employees in accordance with the Companies Act), − classification of the enterprise according to the SKD. VIRI SOURCES Na vprašalnik odgovarjajo direktorji podjetij ali drugi vodilni delavci med 1. in 10. v mesecu za tekoči mesec. Respondents to the monthly questionnaire are managers of enterprises or other executives. They respond between the 1st and the 10th in the month for the current month. ZAJETJE COVERAGE V anketo smo zajeli vsa velika in srednje velika podjetja in 75 % malih podjetij (ali 74 % zaposlenih). Panelni vzorec pokriva 82 % podjetij vzorčnega okvira ali 93 % zaposlenih v gradbeništvu. The panel includes all large and medium-sized enterprises and 75% of small enterprises (or 74% of employees). The panel covers 82% of the enterprises of the studied population or 93% of employees in construction. NAČIN ZBIRANJA PODATKOV METHOD OF DATA COLLECTING Anketo izvajamo mesečno po pošti. The survey is carried out monthly by mail. UTEŽEVANJE ODGOVOROV WEIGHTS FOR RESPONSES Odgovori so uteženi tako, da odražajo relativno pomembnost posameznega podjetja v vzorcu. Znotraj oddelkov SKD so odgovori uteženi s številom zaposlenih. Responses to individual questions are weighted so that they reflect relative importance of an individual enterprise in the panel. Inside divisions of Standard Classification of Activities (SKD) responses are weighted with the number of employees. NEODGOVORI NON-RESPONSES Neodgovore vsak mesec obdelamo skladno s poenoteno metodologijo; delež neodgovorov se giblje med 5 in 10 % (povprečno 8 %). Non-responses are processed every month in accordance with the harmonised methodology and vary between 5 and 10% (8% on average). DEFINICIJE DEFINITIONS Grafikoni prikazujejo ravnotežja po posameznih vprašanjih. Ravnotežje je razlika med pozitivnimi in negativnimi odgovori, izražena v odstotkih. Ravnotežja prikazujejo gibanje opazovanih ekonomskih spremenljivk (stanj in pričakovanj), ne pa dejanskih velikosti ekonomskih kazalnikov. The charts show the balance by individual questions. The balance is the difference between positive and negative answers, expressed in percent. The balance shows the movement of observed economic variables (present situation and future expectations), and not the real size of economic indicators. Ko so prikazane daljše časovne vrste podatkov ali primerjave kazalnikov s kazalniki EU, so vrednosti desezonirane. To so vrednosti, pri katerih je izključen vpliv In the charts with longer time series or by comparisons with EU indicators, data are seasonally adjusted. Values are adjusted for the seasonal component, but include the trend-cycle Statistične informacije, št. 8/2007 12 Rapid reports No 8/2007 sezone, vsebujejo pa trend-cikel in naključno komponento. Podatki za EU so desezonirani z metodo DAINTIES, za Slovenijo pa z metodo TRAMO/SEATS, ki temelji na modelih ARIMA. Pri oblikovanju modelov je upoštevano časovno obdobje od marca 2002 do januarja 2006. component and the irregular component. Data for EU are seasonally adjusted by the DAINTIES method and for Slovenia by the TRAMO/SEATS method, which is based on ARIMA models. The designing of the models is based on the time period from March 2002 to January 2006. Kazalnik zaupanja v gradbeništvu je povprečje odgovorov (ravnotežij) na vprašanji o sedanjih skupnih naročilih in pričakovanemu zaposlovanju. Confidence indicator in construction is defined as the arithmetic mean of the answers (balances) to the questions on order-books assessments and employment expectations. OBJAVLJANJE PODATKOV PUBLISHING Sodelujoči v anketi prejmejo informacijo o gradbeništvu kot celoti, o oddelku SKD, v katerega se po dejavnosti razvrščajo in glede na vrsto gradnje, vendar le, če so izpolnili vprašalnik za tekoči mesec. Persons participating in the survey get information for construction, division in which they are classified and for the type of construction. They get it only if they responded in the current month. Ostalim uporabnikom so dostopni podatki na ravni gradbeništva in njegovih skupin ter podatki glede na vrsto gradnje. Slednji so mesečno objavljeni v Statističnih informacijah – Poslovne tendence v gradbeništvu in v podatkovni bazi SI-STAT na naslovu http://www.stat.si. Other users can get data for construction and its groups, size of enterprises and type of construction. Data are published in the Rapid Reports – Business Tendency in Construction and in the SI-STAT database which is available at http://www.stat.si/eng. VPRAŠANJA: QUESTIONS: • Obseg gradbenih del v zadnjih 3 mesecih: večji, enak, manjši? • Building activity over the past 3 months: increased, remained unchanged, decreased? • Dejavniki, ki omejujejo gradbeno dejavnost: ni omejitev, nezadostno povpraševanje, slabi vremenski pogoji, visoki stroški materiala, visoki stroški dela, visoki finančni stroški, težave pri pridobivanju kreditov, pomanjkanje usposobljenih delavcev, pomanjkanje opreme, pomanjkanje materialov, velika konkurenca v dejavnosti, ostalo? • Factors limiting building activity: none, insufficient demand, bad weather conditions, high cost of material, high cost of labour, high cost of capital, access to bank credit, shortage of skilled labour, shortage of equipment, shortage of material, competition in own sector, other? • Sedanja naročila v tujini: višja kot normalna, normalna, nižja kot normalna? • Assessment of foreign order books: above normal, normal, below normal? • Sedanja domača naročila: višja kot normalna, normalna, nižja kot normalna? • Assessment of domestic order books: above normal, normal, below normal? • Sedanja skupna naročila: višja kot normalna, normalna, nižja kot normalna? • Assessment of overall order books: above normal, normal, below normal? • Pričakovana naročila v naslednjih 3 mesecih: zrasla, ostala nespremenjena, padla? • Expected order books over the next 3 months: increase, remain unchanged, decrease? • Zaposlovanje v zadnjem mesecu: povečalo, ostalo enako, zmanjšalo? • Assessment of employment: increased, remained unchanged, decreased? • Pričakovano zaposlovanje v naslednjih 3 mesecih: povečalo, ostalo enako, zmanjšalo? • Employment expectations over the next 3 months: increase, remain unchanged, decrease? • Cene so se: zvišale, ostale enake, znižale? • Assessment of prices: increased, remained unchanged, decreased? • Pričakovane cene v naslednjih 3 mesecih: naraščale, ostale enake, padale? • Expected prices over the next 3 months: increase, remain unchanged, decrease? • Tehnične zmogljivosti glede na povpraševanje v naslednjih 12 mesecih: več kot zadostne, zadostne, nezadostne? • Technical capacity regarding expected demand in the next 12 months: more than sufficient, sufficient, not sufficient? • Pri običajnih delovnih urah že začeto ali s pogodbami zagotovljeno dela za: ... mesecev? • With normal working hours, the work in hand and work already contracted for … months? • Poslovno stanje v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem: boljše, enako, slabše? • Business situation compared to the previous month: better, the same, worse? 1) Podjetja lahko označijo več dejavnikov, ki omejujejo njihovo dejavnost, zato vsota odstotkov ni 100. Enterprises can select several factors limiting their business, so the total is not 100%. Statistične informacije, št. 8/2007 Rapid reports No 8/2007 13 KOMENTAR COMMENT Januarja 2007 so direktorji ocenili poslovne tendence v gradbeništvu slabše kot pretekli mesec. Desezonirana vrednost kazalnika zaupanja je bila za 1 odstotno točko nižja kot pretekli mesec. V primerjavi z januarjem 2006 je bila višja za 25 odstotnih točk in za 8 odstotnih točk je bila višja od povprečja lanskega leta. In January 2007, managers estimated business tendencies in construction as being worse than in the previous month. The seasonally adjusted value of the confidence indicator fell by 1 percentage point compared to the previous month. Compared to January 2006 it was up by 25 percentage points and it was 8 percentage points above last year’s average. POSLOVNO STANJE BUSINESS SITUATION Desezonirana vrednost kazalnika poslovno stanje je bila v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem nižja za 5 odstotnih točk. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani je bila višja za 18 odstotnih točk in za 6 odstotnih točk je bila višja od lanskega povprečja. Compared to the previous month the seasonally adjusted value of the business situation indicator fell by 5 percentage points. Compared to January 2006 it was up by 18 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 6 percentage points. OBSEG GRADBENIH DEL BUILDING ACTIVITY Desezonirana vrednost kazalnika obseg gradbenih del se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem zvišala za 2 odstotni točki in s tem dosegla najvišjo vrednost po aprilu 2002. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila višja za 47 odstotnih točk in za 22 odstotnih točk je bila višja od povprečja lanskega leta. The seasonally adjusted value of the building activity indicator rose by 2 percentage points compared to the previous month and has reached the highest value since April 2002. Compared to January 2006 and last year’s average it was up by 47 and 22 percentage points, respectively. SKUPNA NAROČILA IN PRIČAKOVANA SKUPNA NAROČILA OVERALL ORDER-BOOKS AND EXPECTED ORDER- BOOKS Desezonirana vrednost kazalnika skupna naročila se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem zvišala za 3 odstotne točke. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila višja za 31 odstotnih točk in za 13 odstotnih točk je bila višja od lanskega povprečja. The seasonally adjusted value of the overall order-books indicator rose by 3 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to January 2006 and last year’s average it was up by 31 and 13 percentage points, respectively. Desezonirana vrednost kazalnika pričakovana skupna naročila za naslednje tri mesece se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem zvišala za 1 odstotno točko. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila nižja za 2 odstotni točki in za 3 odstotne točke je bila nižja od povprečja lanskega leta. The seasonally adjusted value of the expected order-books for the next three months rose by 1 percentage point compared to the previous month. Compared to January 2006 it was down by 2 percentage points and 3 percentage points below last year’s average. ZAPOSLOVANJE IN PRIČAKOVANO ZAPOSLOVANJE EMPLOYMENT AND EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATIONS Desezonirana vrednost kazalnika zaposlovanje se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem znižala za 11 odstotnih točk. V primerjavi z istim mesecem lani je bila višja za 18 odstotnih točk in za 4 odstotne točke je bila višja od povprečja lanskega leta. The seasonally adjusted value of the employment indicator fell by 11 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to January 2006 it was up by 18 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 4 percentage points. Desezonirana vrednost kazalnika pričakovano zaposlovanje se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem zvišala še za 1 odstotno točko in s tem dosegla najvišjo vrednost v celotnem opazovanem obdobju. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila višja za 18 odstotnih točk in za 5 odstotnih točk je bila višja od lanskega povprečja. The seasonally adjusted value of the expected employment indicator rose by 1 percentage point compared to the previous month and reached the highest value in the whole observed period. Compared to January 2006 it was up by 18 percentage points and compared to last year’s average by 5 percentage points. CENE IN CENOVNA PRIČAKOVANJA PRICES AND PRICE EXPECTATIONS Desezonirana vrednost kazalnika cene se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem znižala za 2 odstotni točki. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila višja za 5 odstotnih točk in za 3 odstotne točke je bila višja od povprečja lanskega leta. The seasonally adjusted value of the prices indicator fell by 2 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to January 2006 it was up by 5 percentage points and was 3 percentage points above last year’s average. Desezonirana vrednost kazalnika cenovna pričakovanja za naslednje tri mesece se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem zvišala za 4 odstotne točke in s tem dosegla najvišjo vrednost v celotnem opazovanem obdobju. Glede na isti The seasonally adjusted value of the price expectations indicator for the next three months rose by 4 percentage points compared to the previous month and reached the highest value in the whole observed period. Compared to Statistične informacije, št. 8/2007 14 Rapid reports No 8/2007 mesec lani je bila višja za 18 odstotnih točk in za 9 odstotnih točk je bila višja od povprečja lanskega leta. January 2006 it was up by 18 percentage points and 9 percentage points above last year’s average. TEHNIČNE ZMOGLJIVOSTI TECHNICAL CAPACITY Desezonirana vrednost kazalnika tehnične zmogljivosti zajema oceno količine in kakovosti opreme glede na povpraševanje v naslednjih 12 mesecih. The seasonally adjusted value of the technical capacity indicator includes the evaluation of the quantity and quality of equipment regarding expected demand in the next 12 months. Desezonirana vrednost tega kazalnika se je v primerjavi s preteklim mesecem zvišala za 3 odstotne točke. Glede na isti mesec lani je bila nižja za 6 odstotnih točk in za 1 odstotno točko je bila nižja od lanskega povprečja. The seasonally adjusted value of this indicator rose by 3 percentage points compared to the previous month. Compared to January 2006 it fell by 6 percentage points and was 1 percentage point below last year’s average. ZAGOTOVLJENO DELO ASSURED WORK IN HAND Desezonirana vrednost kazalnika zagotovljeno delo temelji na oceni števila mesecev, za katere je delo zagotovljeno s pogodbami. The value of the assured work indicator includes the evaluation of the number of months for which work is assured by contracts. V januarju 2007 so imela podjetja s pogodbami zagotovljeno delo v povprečju za 5,2 meseca, kar je najvišja vrednost v celotnem opazovanem obdobju. To je za 1,1 meseca več kot v istem mesecu lani in za 0,8 meseca več od povprečja lanskega leta. In January 2007, enterprises had work assured for 5.2 months on average, which is 1.1 month more than in January 2006 and 0.8 month more than last year’s average. OMEJITVENI DEJAVNIKI LIMITING FACTORS Med omejitvenimi dejavniki v gradbeništvu so prevladovali dejavniki iz skupine hude omejitve. V tem mesecu se je z njimi spopadalo 47 % zaposlenih (oziroma 32 % podjetij). Among factors limiting building activity, severe obstacles prevailed. In January 2007, 47% of employees (32% of enterprises) were faced with them. Sledili so omejitveni dejavniki iz skupine težave s ponudbo. V tem mesecu se je z njimi srečevalo 25 % zaposlenih (oziroma 38 % podjetij). The second most important obstacles were supply difficulties. In January 2007, 25% of employees (38% of enterprises) faced them. Dejavniki iz skupine šibko povpraševanje so v tem mesecu povzročali težave 12 % zaposlenih (oziroma 13 % podjetij). The third most important obstacles were demand difficulties. In January 2007, 12% of employees (13% of enterprises) faced them. 15 % zaposlenih (oziroma 16 % podjetij) v tem mesecu ni imelo omejitev. 15% of employees (16% of enterprises) experienced no obstacles in January 2007. Podrobnejši pregled omejitvenih dejavnikov v gradbeništvu v tem mesecu pokaže naslednje1): A more detailed overview of factors limiting building activity shows that in this month1): • 41 % podjetij (ali 57 % zaposlenih) je omejevala velika konkurenca v dejavnosti; • 41% of enterprises (or 57% of employees) were limited by competition in own sector; • 40 % podjetij (ali 39 % zaposlenih) je omejevalo pomanjkanje usposobljenih delavcev; • 40% of enterprises (or 39% of employees) were limited by shortage of skilled labour; • 29 % podjetij (ali 37 % zaposlenih) so omejevali visoki stroški dela; • 29% of enterprises (or 37% of employees) were limited by high costs of labour; • 25 % podjetij (ali 19 % zaposlenih) so omejevali visoki stroški materiala; • 25% of enterprises (or 19% of employees) were limited by high costs of material; • 14 % podjetij (ali 15 % zaposlenih) so omejevali visoki finančni stroški; • 14% of enterprises (or 15% of employees) were limited by high costs of capital; • 14 % podjetij (ali 11 % zaposlenih) so omejevale slabe vremenske razmere; • 14% of enterprises (or 11% of employees) were limited by bad weather conditions; • 8 % podjetij (ali 10 % zaposlenih) je omejevalo nezadostno povpraševanje; • 8% of enterprises (or 10% of employees) were limited by insufficient demand; • 7 % podjetij (ali 5 % zaposlenih) so omejevali drugi dejavniki; • 7% of enterprises (or 5% of employees) were limited by other factors; • 6 % podjetij (ali 3 % zaposlenih) so omejevale težave pri pridobivanju kreditov; • 6% of enterprises (or 3% of employees) were limited by access to bank credits; Statistične informacije, št. 8/2007 Rapid reports No 8/2007 15 • 2 % podjetij (ali 1 % zaposlenih) je omejevalo pomanjkanje opreme; • 2% of enterprises (or 1% of employees) were limited by lack of equipment; • 1 % podjetij (ali 1 % zaposlenih) je omejevalo pomanjkanje materialov. • 1% of enterprises (or 1% of employees) enterprises were limited by shortage of material. Najobsežnejša omejitev v gradbeništvu je bila ponovno velika konkurenca v dejavnosti, sledile so ji pomanjkanje usposobljenih delavcev, visoki stroški dela in visoki stroški materiala. The most important factor limiting building activity was competition in own sector, followed by shortage of skilled labour, high costs of labour and material. Statistično raziskovanje je sofinancirala Evropska komisija. Za objavljene podatke in besedila je odgovoren izključno Statistični urad Republike Slovenije, in ne Evropska komisija. The business survey is co-financed by the European Commission. However, the European Commission accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever with regard to the material published in this publication. Sestavila / Prepared by: Brigita Vrabič Kek Izdaja, založba in tisk Statistični urad Republike Slovenije, Ljubljana, Vožarski pot 12 - Uporaba in objava podatkov dovoljena le z navedbo vira - Odgovarja generalna direktorica mag. Irena Križman - Urednica zbirke Statistične informacije Marina Urbas – Področna urednica Brigita Vrabič Kek - Slovensko besedilo jezikovno uredila Ivanka Zobec - Angleško besedilo jezikovno uredil Boris Panič - Naklada 360 izvodov - ISSN zbirke Statistične informacije 1408-192X - ISSN podzbirke Gradbeništvo 1408-9300 - Informacije daje Informacijsko središče, tel. (01) 241 51 04 - El. pošta:info.stat@gov.si - http://www.stat.si. Edited, published and printed by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, Ljubljana, Vožarski pot 12 - These data can be used provided the source is acknowledged - Director-General Irena Križman - Rapid Reports editor Marina Urbas – Subject-matter editor Brigita Vrabič Kek - Slovene language editor Ivanka Zobec - English language editor Boris Panič - Total print run 360 copies - ISSN of Rapid Reports 1408-192X - ISSN of subcollection Construction 1408- 9300 - Information is given by the Information Centre of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, tel.: +386 1 241 51 04 - E-mail: info.stat@gov.si - http://www.stat.si.