Slovenian Economic Mirror J IMAD Economic Analyses/June 2007 No. 6, Vol. XIII Slovenian Economic Mirror presents current macroeconomic developments as well as selected economic, social and environmental issues. The publication consists of articles, which present the main economic indicators, assess the realisation of the spring and autumn forecasts, and monitor implementation of economic policies (earnings, public finance, prices, competitiveness, etc.). The periodical is published monthly, except in September. This issue of Slovenian Economic Mirror was prepared by: Boštjan Vasle (In the Spotlight), Jure Brložnik (International Environment - Selected Countries of Former Yugoslavia), Jože Markič (Balance of Payments - Current Account, Balance of Payments - Capital & Financial Account), Miha Trošt (Price Trends & Policy), Marjan Hafner (Money Market - Household Savings, Money Market - Loans), Tomaž Kraigher (Labour Market), Saša Kovačič (Earnings), Katarina Ivas (Manufacturing), Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič (Distributive Trade, Tourism), Barbara Ferk (Private Consumption and Household Indebtedness), Tanja Čelebič (Youth in Secondary Schools by Type of Education Programme, Youth in Secondary Schools by Field of Study), Mojca Vendramin (Greenhouse Gas Emissions), Maja Kersnik (Risk of Poverty and Income Inequality). Director: Janez Šušteršič. Editor in Chief: Luka Žakelj. Translator: Tina Potrato. Language Editor: Murray Bales. Technical Editor: Ema Bertina Kopitar. Statistical Appendix, Data Preparation & Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman. Distribution: Katja Ferfolja. Printed by: Tiskarna Štrok. Concept & Design: Sandi Radovan, Studio DVA. Circulation: 610 copies. Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development Gregorčičeva 27, 1000 Ljubljana (+386 1) 478 10 12 fax: 478 10 70 Editor in chief: luka.zakeli@gov.si Translator: tina.potrato@gov.si Distribution: publicistika.umar@gov.si SEM can be found on the Internet at http://www.gov.si/umar/ Publication is included in Ebsco Publishing Database and Internet Securities Database. © Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, 2007. The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 6/2007 p. 2 In the Spotlight The labour market is responding to the high 7.2% economic growth p. 3 International Environment Favourable GDP growth rates expected in the countries of former Yugoslavia this year p. 4 Balance of Payments - Current Account Higher current account deficit in the first quarter due to higher deficit in factor incomes p. 5 Balance of Payments - Capital & Financial Account Higher capital inflow in Q1 due to BS' entry to the Eurosystem p. 6 Price Trends & Policy Dynamics of food prices in Slovenia consistent with corresponding trends in Europe p. 7 Money Market - Household Savings Faster growth of time deposits in 2007 p. 8 Money Market - Loans Exceptionally high lending activity of Slovenian banks in April p. 9 Labour Market Employment is still rising while the registered unemployment rate is declining p. 10 Earnings Nominal drop in private sector wages caused by the shorter working month p. 11 Manufacturing High contribution of metal industry to the growth of manufacturing p. 12 Distributive Trades Value added growth strengthened further in the first quarter p. 13 Tourism Strong performance of tourism continues this year p. 14 Private Consumption & Household Indebtedness Real growth of consumption still moderate p. 15 SELECTED TOPICS Youth in Secondary Schools by Type of Education Programme The percentage of youth enrolled in grammar school is still increasing p. 19 Youth in Secondary Schools by Field of Study The structure of youth enrolled in secondary schools by field of study is not adjusted to the needs of the labour market pp. 20, 21 Greenhouse Gas Emissions The increase in GHG emissions is relatively high in Slovenia in comparison with both GDP growth and level of development pp. 22, 23 Risk of Poverty and Income Inequality The at-risk-of-poverty rate and income inequality remain low after the changeover to a new methodology p. 24 Data: (pp. A 1-A 12), Main indicators (p. A 13), International Comparisons (pp. A 14-15), Graphs (pp. A 16-17). Selected indicators of current economic Latest Compared to the previous month same period of previous year developments, change in % Data latest data pre-latest data pre-pre latest data Industrial production (value based) April -7.8 10.1 9.1 9.1 Manufacturing April -7.9 11.4 10.4 10.6 Electricity, gas and water supply April -9.2 -8.8 -8.1 -5.7 Value of construction put in place, real terms April 6.5 34.4 35.5 33.9 Exports of goods (nominal terms)1 March 18.7 18.4 18.3 17.7 Imports of goods (nominal terms)1 March 17.2 16.6 19.0 23.3 Real effective exchange rate2 April 0.9 1.5 1.4 1.4 Gross wage per employee, real terms April -2.3 3.0 3.0 3.1 Total household savings in banks3, nominal terms March 0.0 8.7 8.6 8.0 General government revenue, real terms May -10.6 2.6 1.8 4.2 Number of persons in paid employment April 0.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 Number of registered unemployed May -2.5 -18.1 -17.9 -17.4 Number of job vacancies May -6.1 5.3 8.0 6.9 Month current previous pre-previous Registered unemployment rate April 7.9 8.1 8.4 Month current cumulative annual4 Consumer prices June 0.4 2.9 3.6 Producer prices (domestic market) May 0.3 3.7 5.1 Sources of data: SORS, BS, ESS, estimates and calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1balance of payments' statistics; 2euro's exchange rate for Slovenia measured by relative consumer prices; the calculation of the effective exchange rate includes the currencies/prices of Slovenia's 17 trading partners (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Italy, France, Netherlands, Spain, Denmark, United Kingdom, Sweden, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, USA, Switzerland, Japan); weights are the shares of individual trading partners in Slovenian exports and imports of goods within manufacturing (5-8 SITC) in 2001-2003; exports are double weighted; 3the year-on-year growth rate is defined as the ratio between the stock at the end of the current month and the stock in the same month of the previous year; 4total in the last 12 months. In the Spotlight Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 6/2007 p. 3 The latest data confirm the improved spring forecasts of economic trends in the EU for 2007 while the deceleration in the USA will be stronger than expected at the beginning of the year. The average growth rate of industrial production in the euro area was 0.4 p.p. higher in the first four months of the year than in the same period of 2006. The unemployment rate, which has been declining since March 2005, totalled 7.1% in April, almost one percentage point less than in the same month of 2006. The expected continuation of the favourable trends is also corroborated by the dynamic factor model of DG ECFIN, which shows that GDP growth will remain at the level of the first quarter (0.6%) in the second and third quarters. The economies of former Yugoslavia are also expected to grow at similar rates as in 2006 this year, with a substantial acceleration only being projected in Macedonia (see p. 4). On the other hand, figures for the US housing market indicate that the recession in this segment will last longer than was anticipated a few months ago and hence also cause a greater slowdown of GDP growth. In addition to the high investment activity, the favourable conditions in the international environment and the related high export growth rates were the main factors of the 7.2% GDP growth achieved in the first quarter. Within gross fixed capital formation, which rose by 21.6%, the fastest growth was recorded in investment in motorway construction (34.3%) thanks to the favourable weather conditions which enabled swift realisation of projects. Investment in housing construction, likewise additionally supported by mild weather, also continued to grow vigorously (18.1%). The high growth of investment in machinery and equipment (10.8%) was largely underpinned by the favourable business climate. Meanwhile, the growth of household consumption (3.4%) rose only slightly in the first quarter, although some short-term consumption indicators (especially consumer confidence and new car registrations) presaged a stronger acceleration and although the changed tax legislation also accelerated the growth of net wages. The increase in government consumption (2.2%) was even more modest. External trade rose strongly in the first quarter this year. Exports of goods and services increased by a real 13.6%; the increase in exports to the EU-27 countries was almost level with that to non-member states. Due to the strong dependency of exports on imports and the high domestic consumption, particularly gross fixed capital formation, import growth also remained at a high level (13.7%). Amid the nearly level growth of imports and exports and the improved terms of trade, the current account deficit rose somewhat in the first quarter, year on year, as a result of the increase in the factor incomes deficit, which was largely due to higher interest payments (also see p. 5). The real growth of value added was 7.1% higher in the first three months of the year than in the same period of 2006 and exceeded the relatively high growth rate from the final quarter of 2006 by 0.9%. The acceleration of the year-on-year value added growth rate seen in the first quarter this year was largely underpinned by the stronger growth in primary activities coupled with the continued favourable trends in market services. It was chiefly driven by the robust growth of manufacturing industries and construction, the two largest sectors of primary activities (A-F). The increase in manufacturing's value added reflected the continued strong cycle of the international environment on one hand and the high activity in construction on the other. Market services saw a continuation of favourable trends in all activities except hotels and restaurants. The estimated structure of growth shows that activity was particularly high in those market services segments that are closely linked with manufacturing and construction (part of distributive trades, the banking sector, merchandise trade, real estate and business services). The growth of value added in public services (L-O) is still moderating gradually after the more substantial increases in 2003-2005. The strong business cycle of the first quarter also benefited the labour market. The number of people in employment according to the labour force survey rose by 1.3% in the first quarter of 2007, year on year. Survey unemployment, although higher than in the previous quarter, was 17.5% lower than in the comparable period of 2006. While such dynamics are a usual seasonal phenomenon in the spring, they have been even more pronounced this year. A comparison between survey-based employment growth and the much higher formal employment growth indicates that the decline in various informal types of employment is still under way (see p. 10). Amid the high economic growth and the improved conditions in the labour market, wage growth remains comparable with that of 2006. In the four months to April, the real growth of the gross wage per employee totalled 3.0% (4.0% in the private and 1.2% in the public sector; see p. 11). The key wage policy guidelines, according to which wage growth should not exceed productivity growth, thus remain in place both at the level of each sector and aggregately. The consumer price rise in the first half of the year was higher than the comparable increase in 2006. Higher food prices were the key factor of the higher inflation in the six months to June (also see p. 7). Their contribution to inflation totalled 0.9 p.p., double the figure from the first half of 2006. As oil prices rebounded in the first half of the year, they added 0.7 p.p. to inflation (0.9 p.p. in the same period of 2006). The rounding-up of prices and the price rises that accompanied the introduction of the euro are estimated to have contributed another 0.24 p.p., half thereof in January. Following the considerable price swings in the first half of the year, average inflation remained unchanged in June at 2.5% while year-on-year inflation rose by 0.7 p.p., to 3.6%. International Environment - Selected Countries of Former Yugoslavia Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 6/2007 p. 4 Comparison of different forecasts or assumptions of real GDP growth (in %) 2006 2007 2008 IMAD SF 07 Unicredit May 07 CONS May 07 EIU June 07 IMAD SF 07 Unicredit May 07 CONS May 07 EIU June 07 Croatia 4.8 4.5 4.2 4.5 4.7 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 Bosnia & Herzegovina 6.0 5.5 5.7 5.9 5.5 5.5 6.0 6.2 6.0 Serbia 5.7 5.2 5.2 6.0 5.6 5.2 5.4 5.8 5.4 Macedonia 3.1 4.0 N/A 4.1 N/A 4.0 N/A 4.2 N/A Source of data: IMAD, Spring Forecast 2007; Unicredit CEE Quarterly (May 2007); Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts (May 2007); Economist Intelligence Unit Country Reports (June 2007); Eurostat. GDP growth rates in the countries of former Yugoslavia are expected to remain similar as last year in 2007, with a notable acceleration only being projected for Macedonia. Economic growth in all four countries will mainly be propelled by investment growth; the growth of private consumption will also continue (BiH, Serbia) or accelerate (Croatia, Macedonia). These countries are also gradually moving towards price stability as inflation is set to decline in all four countries this year. On the other hand, international institutions warn that structural reforms that would allow these countries to achieve higher growth rates in the long term have stalled or are happening too slowly. Economic growth in Croatia will slow down gradually this and next year after the three-year peak reached last year. The European Commission forecasts almost equal GDP growth as last year. The growth of private consumption is expected to accelerate slightly this year (from 3.5% to 4.0%) as a result of wage rises and increases in social transfers ahead of the autumn elections. The growth of government consumption is also projected to pick up (from 2.2% to 3.0%) thanks to hiring new employees. Investment will remain the main engine of the economy despite its expected lower growth rate (from 10.9% to 8.5%). The growth of exports will continue to accelerate (from 6.9% to 7.2%) while the growth of imports (from 7.3% to 6.8%) will moderate slightly this year. The stable currency makes it possible to achieve stable inflation, which is projected to fall from 3.2% in 2006 to 2.3% this year. Data on the strong growth of industrial production (around 8.0%) in the four months to April indicate that economic growth probably accelerated in Q1 compared with Q4 of 2006. On the other hand, the growth of goods exports slackened off considerably in Q1 (2.1%) while import growth remained high (8.0%). GDP growth in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which totalled 6.0% in 2006, will ease off slightly this year and rebound to approximately last year's level in 2008. This year, the economy will chiefly be driven by investment as the planned public infrastructure projects will push up the growth of investment in construction. The growth of investment in machinery and equipment will also be high due to the need for higher production capacities. Despite the expected slowdown in the growth of loans, private consumption will also remain strong. Last year, the growth of industrial production topped 10% for the third consecutive year. Similarly high growth rates are also expected this and next year. After the substantial acceleration of inflation in 2006, which was mainly caused by the introduction of VAT, when the growth of retail prices rose from 3.7% to 7.2% at the annual level, inflation slowed down in Q1 this year. Serbia will record similarly high GDP growth as last year. Investment will be the key driver of economic growth this year, both in newly privatised companies and public investments linked to the realisation of the national investment plan, although the latter was criticised by the IMF, which questioned the purpose of some of the projects in light of the recommended structural changes in the economy. The vigorous growth of private consumption will continue, still supported by the exceptionally high wage growth. In January, for example, the year-on-year increase in real net wages totalled a high 25%. The increase in exports will be underpinned by the gradual expansion of production capacities in export-oriented enterprises while import growth will remain high on the back of the strong growth of domestic consumption. After the lowering of inflation in 2006 when the average growth of retail prices fell from 17.3% in 2005 to 12.7%, an even stronger decline in inflation is projected this year, to 5.7%. The year-on-year retail inflation totalled 4.6% in April, compared with 15.5% in the same month last year. Following the slowdown in 2006, economic growth in Macedonia will finally accelerate slightly this and next year. This is also confirmed by data on the 7.0% year-on-year growth in Q1. According to the EC forecast, real GDP growth will total 4.3% this year and 5.3% in 2008, which probably indicates that the reforms aimed at improving the business environment will already begin taking effect this year. This year an acceleration is expected especially in investment growth (from 9.0% in 2006 to 12.0%) as well as private consumption (from 4.0% to 4.5%), whereas the growth of government consumption will remain stable (3.0%) thanks to the country's commitment to prudent fiscal policy. The export and import growth rates will be similar as last year in the next two years (both between 14.0% and 15.0%). Inflation is projected to dip to 2.0% this year after the acceleration seen in 2006 (from 0.5% to 3.2%). Balance of Payments - Current Account Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 6/2007 p. 5 Balance of Payments, Jan-Mar 2007, EUR million Inflows Outflows Balance1 Balance Jan-Mar 2006 Current account 5,917.3 6,092.0 -174.7 -163.5 Trade balance (FOB) 4,771.3 4,936.6 -165.2 -203.9 Services 782.4 585.1 197.4 206.8 Transport 257.6 154.7 102.9 108.4 Travel 216.7 103.8 112.9 174.3 Other services 308.1 326.5 -18.4 -75.9 Labour and capital income 162.3 302.5 -140.2 -77.5 Current transfers 201.2 267.8 -66.7 -88.9 Source of data: BS. Note: 1a minus sign (-) in the balance indicates a surplus of imports over exports in the current account and an increase in assets in the capital and financial account and the central bank's international reserves. The current account deficit recorded in the first quarter this year was largely the result of the growing deficit in factor incomes. With the slightly higher surplus in labour income, the net capital expenditure rose considerably year on year. Although commercial banks' interest earned on loans extended to the rest of the world increased, the payments of interest to the rest of the world were even higher due to the strong borrowing seen over the last few years (mostly long-term loans). The net payments of interest on loans granted between affiliated enterprises within foreign direct investment are rising as well. In the first quarter this year, external trade surged at the year-on-year level (by 16.5% in nominal terms). Exports of goods and services rose by a nominal 16.8% while imports of goods and services climbed by 16.1%. The robust growth of exports was underpinned by the strong cycle in the EU countries that boosted domestic industrial production. Imports also rose vigorously due to the strong dependency between imports and exports and the high increase in domestic consumption, particularly in gross fixed capital formation. The terms of trade with the rest of the world improved somewhat at the year-on-year level in the first quarter (by 0.5 p.p.). The purchasing power of exports or the real value of income from exports (the ratio between the nominal export index and the import price index) rose by 14.2% year on year. Data on regional trade show parity in the growth of goods exports to the EU countries and to other countries; exports of road vehicles are rising again. The nominal growth of goods exports in the first quarter totalled 18.0% to the EU-27 countries and 18.1% to non-EU countries. Looking at the structure of the SITC, both the growth of primary products and industrial goods strengthened, partly due to the rising prices of industrial products and primary commodities. The biggest increase in industrial products was recorded in exports of chemical products (by 23.8%) and products classified by material (by 22.2%). As expected, the growth of road vehicles exports picked up as well (by 17.4%). Imports from non-EU countries are still rising at a faster pace than imports from the EU; the growth of primary commodities imports slowed down due to lower oil prices. Imports from non-EU countries surged by 20.4% while imports from the EU-27 increased by 14.7%. In terms of the SITC structure, imports of industrial products saw a stronger increase (21.7%) than imports of primary commodities (3.4%). Within industrial products, imports of products classified by material enjoyed the strongest growth - 29.2% (driven mainly by imports of iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, and metal products). Imports of petroleum and its products fell by 13.7% year on year as a result of the lower price of Brent crude. The latter declined by 6.2% over the same period of 2006 (from USD 61.9 to USD 58.1). The share of oil decreased by 1.8 p.p. to 5.1%, year on year. The trade deficit narrowed along with the surplus in trade in services. The lowering of the trade deficit was underpinned by the lower deficit in merchandise trade with the EU countries on one hand and by the higher surplus in trade with non-EU countries on the other. Trade in services recorded slower year-on-year growth than trade in goods, partly due to the changed methodology1. The changeover to the new methodology had the relatively smallest impact on trade in transport services, whereas trade in travel and other services is characterised by stronger volatility. The deficit in the current transfers account narrowed somewhat, mostly due to the lower deficit of the government sector. Slovenia received EUR 87.1 m from the EU budget in the first quarter this year, which is EUR 39.1 m more than in the same period of 2006. The main increases were recorded in the funds intended for implementing the common agricultural policy and internal policies. Payments to the EU budget totalled EUR 100 m, EUR 6 m more than in the same period last year. At the beginning of the year (during the first three months), the European Commission can require member states to pay triple the amount of their average monthly payments to the EU budget to cover increased costs for the CAP. This February, the Commission called up an almost three-month payment under the headings of VAT, GNP and the UK rebate in the amount of EUR 67.9 m. Slovenia's net budgetary position relative to the EU budget thus recorded a deficit of EUR 12.9 m in the first quarter (a deficit of EUR 46 m was recorded in the same period of 2006). 1The main source of data on trade in services in Slovenia is the Bank of Slovenia, which collects data in accordance with the guidelines of the International Monetary Fund. Approximately half of the source in travel services comprises payment transactions, which banks no longer report unless their value is higher than EUR 12,500. The BS thus lost an important source of data. It estimates the value of transactions worth less than EUR 12,500 on its own. Due to these methodological changes, the value of travel services in Q1 was probably underestimated. Non-residents' spending in Slovenia was probably more underrated than residents' spending abroad. Balance of Payments - Capital & Financial Account Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 6/2007 p. 6 Balance of Payments, Jan-Mar 2007, EUR million Inflows Outflows Balance1 Balance, Jan-Mar 2006 Capital and financial account 5,209.5 -4,326.9 882.6 103.0 Capital account 57.6 -51.6 6.0 -8.1 Capital transfers 57.6 -50.7 6.9 -8.6 Patents, Licences 0.0 -0.9 -0.9 0.6 Financial account 5,151.9 -4,275.3 876.6 111.0 Direct investment 174.1 -281.8 -107.7 -63.8 Portfolio investment 1,230.8 -1,857.9 -627.2 -257.2 Financial derivatives 0.0 2.0 2.0 -2.0 Other investment 3,694.0 -2,137.6 1,556.4 526.2 Assets 18.9 -1,998.5 -1,979.6 -389.0 Liabilities 3,675.1 -139.1 3,536.0 915.2 International reserves (BS) 53.0 0.0 53.0 -92.2 Statistical error 0.0 -707.9 -707.9 60.5 Source of data: BS. Note: a minus sign (-) in the balance indicates the surplus of imports over exports in the current account and the rise in assets in the capital and financial account and the central bank's international reserves. By entering the EMU, the Bank of Slovenia joined the Eurosystem, which brought about some methodological changes in the collection of balance of payments data and the treatment of international reserves and their redistribution across other items. At the same time, the transfer of the BS' monetary policy to the Eurosystem has resulted in some balance of payments flows which were not observed in previous years and are the result of the adaptation to the changes in monetary instruments. These changes had the biggest impact on the flows of investment in securities and other investment (see the table) as well as the increase in gross external debt. Financial transactions of the balance of payments recorded a much higher net capital inflow in the first quarter this year than in the same period of 2006. It totalled EUR 823.5 m, compared with EUR 203.2 m in the same period last year (excluding international reserves). The increase was largely due to the BS' activity in the Eurosystem. As a result, the BS incurred liabilities to the Eurosystem in the amount of EUR 3,347.3 m due to the non-cash payments in euros made through the Target and Step 2 systems (under other investment). The BS also recorded an increase in the currency and deposit claims on euro area countries and claims in euros on other countries (EUR 1,037.5 in Q1), mainly as a result of the transfer of a segment of international reserves to this item (also see SEM 4/2007: 7). The increase in the net outflow in investment in securities mainly reflected the redirection of commercial banks' assets released upon the maturing of BS' bills falling due. With the adoption of the euro, bills lost their role as a monetary policy instrument. Their stock is therefore decreasing. In the first quarter of 2007, a substantial increase was observed in Slovenian business banks' portfolio investments in foreign bonds (notably in government bonds of the euro area) and debentures (in the total amount of EUR 1,173.6 m) and in money market instruments (by EUR 761.4 m). Commercial banks partly used the funds released in this way to repay long-term loans abroad in the first quarter (in the amount of EUR 223.2 m). The borrowing of the government sector created the largest capital inflow in securities investment. In March, the government issued a 'Slobond' bond worth EUR 1 bn with a 4% fixed interest rate, payable in 2018. Under the heading of loans, the government sector recorded a net repayment of EUR 19.4 m of long-term loans in the first quarter. Another corollary of the BS' activity in the Eurosystem was an increase in the gross external debt in the first quarter. Gross external debt amounted to EUR 28,129 m, which is EUR 4,235 m more than at the end of 2006. 79.0% of this increase is attributable to the BS' liabilities to the Eurosystem. External debt of the private sector, which used to be the main factor of the rising gross external debt in the previous years, decreased somewhat in this period as commercial banks reduced their debt. The statistical error was relatively high. It totalled 2.2% of the estimated GDP for 2007. This is explained by the difficulty of separating the euro currency that the BS puts into circulation from that obtained from transactions with non-residents. The statistical error emerges in the net financial capital outflow, which causes an overestimated balance of the financial account of the BoP (see the table). Graph: Portfolio investments of Slovenian commercial banks before and after Slovenia's entry to the euro area, flows in EUR m -2000 Money market instruments Bonds and debentures i Debt securities (=bonds and debentures + money market instruments) Equity securities 2005 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2006 Q1 2007 Sources of data: BS, calculations by IMAD. Note: a minus sign indicates an increase in assets. -2000 Price Trends & Policy Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 6/2007 p. 7 2006 2007 Price indices Dec 2006/ O (Jan 06-Dec 06)/ May 2007/ May 2007/ O (Apr 06-May 07)/ Dec 2005 O (Jan 05-Dec 05) April 2007 May 2006 O (Apr 05-May 06) Consumer prices (CPI) 102.8 102.5 101.2 102.9 102.5 Goods 102.1 102.0 101.2 102.3 101.8 Fuels and energy 103.9 108.2 102.5 101.9 103.6 Other 101.7 100.5 100.9 102.4 101.4 Services 104.3 103.4 101.1 104.1 103.8 Consumer prices (HICP) 103.0 102.5 101.1 103.1 102.6 Administered prices1 102.1 105.8 101.8 101.6 102.6 Energy 103.7 108.0 102.6 101.5 103.4 Other 97.9 100.2 99.8 101.7 100.9 Core inflation: - trimmean 102.7 102.8 100.9 101.9 102.3 - excluding food & energy 102.0 101.2 100.8 101.9 101.6 Producer prices: - domestic market 102.8 102.3 100.3 105.1 103.5 - EMU 106.3 102.6 100.3 107.6 105.5 Consumer prices in the EMU 101.9 102.2 100.2 101.9 102.0 Sources of data: CPI, HICP, IPI: SORS; administered prices and core inflation: IMAD's estimate; MUICP in the EU: Eurostat (provisional data) and IMAD's recalculation. Note: figures are not directly comparable between the years due to the annual changes of the administered prices index. Prices rose by 1.2% in May. Average inflation, which has not changed significantly since December 2005, remained at 2.5% in May. May's year-on-year inflation totalled 2.9%, 0.3 p.p. more than in April. May's high inflation largely reflected the increases in the prices of food, clothing and footwear, package holidays, and liquid fuels for transport and heating. Food prices rose by 1.8% and contributed 0.3 p.p. to inflation. On the other hand, the prices of liquid fuels for transport and heating also went up in May over April, pushing inflation up by a further 0.3 p.p. The 3.3% rise in the prices of clothing and footwear added another 0.3 p.p. to the inflation in May. The same contribution came from the increase in the prices of package holidays. The prices of package holidays rose somewhat more in the first five months this year than in the same period of the previous two years. Oil prices in the global market have been rising slowly but steadily this year. They rose from around USD 58/barrel in Q1 to approximately USD 68.5/barrel in Q2. The main reasons for the higher prices are higher than expected global economic growth and the fact that the OPEC is currently pumping two million barrels per day less than last year. In addition, oil prices are also affected by the geopolitical tensions in Nigeria and Iran and the lower petrol stocks in the USA at the beginning of the driving season when demand increases considerably. In the six months to June, the oil price and the consequent increase in the prices of liquid fuels for transport and heating thus contributed slightly over 0.7 p.p. to the inflation in Slovenia. Slovenia's integration into the international environment is also reflected in the prices of food whose dynamics have closely followed that of the EU in recent years. The relative price changes vary across the European countries due to different price levels. Food prices in Slovenia rose by 5.4% in the first five months of the year, contributing a good 0.8 p.p. to the inflation in this period, of which fresh or seasonal foods comprised 0.5 p.p. In France, the price rise in seasonal foods accounted for the total food price rise contribution to inflation, whereas in Germany and Italy it added approximately one-half. Otherwise, the dynamics of food prices are very similar in all of these countries, with Slovenia showing the biggest relative changes, which could be explained by the fact that prices in Slovenia are lower than in other analysed countries (see the graph). Graph: Food price index in Slovenia and selected European countries (2005=100) 110 105 100 95 x aj "a - 90 85 f » r< * ______^ * y -K- Germany - France _ _ _ . Italy Slovenia 80 CM CM CM CM CO CO mmmmcDCDCDCD Sources of data: Eurostat, calculations by IMAD. Money Market - Household Savings Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 6/2007 p. 8 Household savings in banks and mutual funds managed by domestic administrators EUR m, nominal Nominal growth rates, % 31 Dec 2006* 30 Apr 2007 30 Apr 2007/ 31 March 2007 30 Apr 2007/ 31 Dec 2006* 30 Apr 2007/ 30 Apr 2006* Total savings 11,451.3 11,630.5 0.0 1.6 8.7 Euro savings, total 7,181.3 11,207.5 0.1 N/A N/A Overnight deposits1 3,730.9 5,254.3 0.0 N/A N/A Short-term deposits 2,558.1 4,361.0 -1.2 N/A N/A Long-term deposits 677.2 1,121.3 2.2 N/A N/A Dep. redeemable at notice 215.0 471.0 10.7 N/A N/A Foreign currency savings 4,270.0 422.9 -2.6 N/A N/A Overnight deposits1 1,794.3 177.3 -5.5 N/A N/A Short-term deposits 1,877.1 189.0 -0.7 N/A N/A Long-term deposits 474.4 44.8 -2.3 N/A N/A Dep. redeemable at notice 124.2 11.8 12.8 N/A N/A Mutual funds2 1,967.3 2,565.6 4.2 30.4 70.0 Source of data: Monthly Bulletin of the BS, IMAD's calculations. Notes: 1demand deposits, 2data for April 2007; *due to the transfer of euro loans to domestic currency loans, data from previous years are not comparable with data for 2007, and calculations of growth rates are therefore senseless. The total volume of household deposits in banks stagnated for the second month running in April. As in March, only euro deposits recorded a modest increase that month while foreign currency deposits continued to decline gradually. Despite this halt, the growth in the first four months of the year was one percentage point higher than in the same period of 2006. This is also confirmed by the net flows which amounted to EUR 179.2 m in this period and were 2.6-times higher than in the comparable period last year. The maturity structure of household deposits in banks has been improving somewhat this year. While overnight deposits rose considerably in previous years, this year has seen an increase in time deposits, which went up by 4.6% in the first four months of the year after having declined by 0.8% in the same period of 2006. Deposits redeemable at notice have been growing at an almost 10% average monthly rate, having risen by 42.3% from the end of 2006 to the end of April and thus having contributed three-quarters to this year's growth despite their mere 4.2% share. Their net flows achieved 80% of the total net flows of household deposits in banks in the four months to April. The strong growth of deposits redeemable at notice is probably attributable to the higher interest rates on these deposits (see the graph). The relatively high growth of the volume of assets managed by domestic mutual funds continued in May, when it was almost one-third higher than at the end of 2006. In the five months to May, the volume of assets in money market mutual funds enjoyed the strongest growth (40.3%) but their contribution to overall growth was negligible because of their small share which totals just 0.3%. Stock mutual funds contributed by far the most to overall growth (over 20 p.p.). The total volume of assets amounted to EUR 2,565.6 m by the end of May. Monthly inflows into mutual funds have topped EUR 40 m for the fifth month running, after having rarely achieved the level of EUR 35 m in the previous two years. Such high values may be attributable to the changed tax legislation and launching of mutual funds in the Balkan markets. For the first time since January 2007, all groups of mutual funds recorded net inflows in May. Only the net inflows in stock mutual funds decreased somewhat compared with the previous month as a result of the slowdown in the net inflows to those mutual funds which target their investments at the Balkan markets. The total net inflows into domestic-managed mutual funds amounted to EUR 246.1 m in the first five months of the year, 4.4-times more than in the comparable period of 2006. Since the increase in the volume of assets managed by mutual funds exceeded the value of net flows 2.5-fold in May, we estimate that the funds again achieved positive returns in that month. Graph: Evolution of deposit interest rates 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 Time deposits up to 1 year ■ Time deposits over 1 and up to 2 years ■ Deposits redeemable at notice announced up to 3 months in advance ■ Deposits redeemable at notice announced over 3 months in advance Source of data: BS. Money Market - Loans Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 6/2007 p. 9 Domestic banks' loans Nominal amounts, EUR m Nominal loan growth, % 31 Dec 2006* 30 Apr 2007 30 Apr 2007/ 31 Mar 2007 30 Apr 2007/ 31 Dec 2006* 30 Apr 2007/ 30 Apr 2006* Loans total 20,052.9 22,025.3 3.4 9.8 25.0 Domestic currency loans 7,317.2 20,825.8 3.2 N/A N/A Enterprises and NFI 3,926.5 15,149.7 3.9 N/A N/A Households 2,896.4 5,094.3 1.5 N/A N/A Government 494.3 581.8 0.0 N/A N/A Foreign currency loans 12,735.8 1,199.5 7.4 N/A N/A Enterprises and NFI 10,091.3 526.5 9.4 N/A N/A Households 2,484.3 657.5 6.1 N/A N/A Government 160.1 15.5 -2.9 N/A N/A Household loans by purpose 5,380.7 5,751.8 2.0 6.9 24.3 Consumer credits 2,286.6 2,392.3 1.6 4.6 16.4 Lending for house purchase 1,955.8 2,133.8 3.2 9.1 40.0 Other lending 1,138.3 1,225.6 1.0 7.7 17.0 Source of data: BS Bulletin, calculations by IMAD. Notes: NFI - non-monetary financial institutions; *due to the transfer of euro loans to domestic currency loans, data from previous years are not comparable with data for 2007, and calculations of growth rates are therefore senseless. The lending activity of Slovenian banks strengthened considerably in April. At the monthly level, the volume of loans achieved their highest growth since 2005 (the time since comparable data are available). The monthly net flows amounted to EUR 734.3 m, which is 50% more than the highest value recorded thus far. The high growth was underpinned by the stronger borrowing of enterprises and NFI, while the volume of net household borrowing moderated somewhat in April (after the high 2.7% growth in March). The total net flows thus achieved the value of EUR 1,972.4 m in the four months to April, close to a third more than in the comparable period last year. The volume of loans to enterprises and NFI rose by 4.1%. Compared with the previous months, the highest increase was seen in the growth of working capital loans, which represent a good two-thirds of the total corporate loans. Their growth nevertheless fell 0.1 p.p. behind the 4.3% growth of investment loans, which rose for the third consecutive month. In April alone, enterprises and NFI net borrowed loans in the amount of EUR 620.4 m, whereas in the first four months of the year the net flows amounted to EUR 1,658.4 m, 42.8% more than in the comparable period last year. We estimate that this year's net flows of foreign currency loans comprise less than 10% of the net flows of loans taken out in domestic banks. After the strong growth in March, household borrowing eased off somewhat but it nevertheless remains at a high level. Households recorded net borrowing in the amount of EUR 371.0 m in the first four months of the year, close to 7.6% more than in the same period of 2006. Households are still extensively taking out housing loans, which comprise nearly half of the total net flows of household loans. Their percentage in the total volume of loans climbed by 0.7 p.p. to 37.0% in the four months to April. This is still much less than in the other EMU countries where household housing loans topped 70% at the end of April. It appears that households that take out foreign currency loans in domestic banks are more exposed to currency risk than enterprises and NFI. Foreign currency loans are estimated to account for approximately 30% of the total net flows. A large part of these loans is probably in Swiss francs, which still have a lower interest rate. Moreover, this type of borrowing has also supported the favourable movement of the Swiss franc, which has been depreciating since 2004 with minor swings and is currently at the lowest level against the euro since 1999 (since data are available). The growth of loans to the non-banking sectors in the EMU is slowing down gradually but is still at a relatively high level. Their volume increased by 0.9% in April and by 3.8% in the first four months of the year, which is 0.5 p.p. less than a year ago. The total net flows have achieved the value of EUR 344.7 bn this year, 3.8% less than in the comparable period of 2006, while the share of Slovenian banks amounted to just 0.5% of the total value. Graph: Net flows of domestic banks' loans to domestic sectors 800 600 400 g 200 Ï 0 DJ -200 -400 -600 LO LO LO LO LO LO LO LO LO LO LO 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 h- h- 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n b ra M y n Ö. Q. tc O c n b ra M y n Ö. Q. tc O c n b a ~3 e Ll_ < a M u —} u A e S o Z e D a e Ll_ < a M u u A e S o Z e D a e Ll_ Source of data: SURS, BS; calculations by IMAD. Labour Market Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 6/2007 p. 10 Selected labour market indicators thousands % growth Jan-Dec 2006 Apr 2006 Dec 2006 Apr 2007 Apr 07/ Mar 07 Jan-Apr 07/ Jan-Apr 06 O 2006/ O 2005 Registered labour force (A=B+C) 910.7 909.9 911.3 921.6 0.2 1.2 0.6 People in formal employment* 824.8 819.9 833.0 849.0 0.4 3.4 1.4 in enterprises and organisations 675.1 671.5 681.7 692.4 0.5 2.8 1.3 by those self-employed 66.5 65.5 67.5 68.9 1.3 5.1 1.7 self-employed and farmers 83.3 82.9 83.8 87.8 -1.2 6.6 2.1 Registered unemployed 85.8 90.0 78.3 72.6 -2.2 -17.9 -6.6 women 47.0 49.1 42.6 40.2 -1.3 -16.9 -4.9 aged over 40 39.7 40.9 37.7 37.7 -1.1 -7.3 -0.9 unemployed over 1 year 41.9 43.0 39.7 37.4 -1.3 -11.4 -3.6 Rate of registered unemployment (C/A), % 9.4 9.9 8.6 7.9 - - - male 8.9 8.2 7.1 6.3 - - - female 12.0 12.0 10.5 9.8 - - - Job vacancies 19.0 18.4 15.9 20.6 -12.6 8.0 12.3 for a fixed term, % 75.3 75.4 76.4 76.9 - - - Sources of data: SORS, ESS, IMAD's calculations. Note: persons in employment according to administrative sources. The number of people in formal employment rose by a further 0.4% in April while the registered unemployment rate decreased to 7.9%. There was particularly an increase in the number of the employed (by 4,271 or 0.6%) while the number of self-employed declined due to the lower estimated number of farmers (by 1,188 or 3.3%). The average number of persons in employment was thus 3.4% higher in the first four months of the year than in the same period last year (see the table). The male registered unemployment rate (6.3%) is still considerably lower than the female one (9.8%). Employment measured by the labour force survey also rose in the first quarter of 2007 while the number of the survey unemployed remained low. The number of people in employment rose by 2,000 or 0.2% compared with the previous quarter and by 12,000 or 1.3% year on year. Although the number of the unemployed was 2,000 (3.6%) higher than in the previous quarter, it was 12,000 (17.5%) lower than in the same quarter of 2006. The total labour force is therefore also smaller than a year ago. A comparison between the increase in survey employment and a much higher increase in formal employment shows that the decline in various types of informal employment, which started already in the final quarter of 2006, is still under way. The number of registered unemployed fell to 70,730 in May. This is 1,843 or 2.5% fewer than in April and 16,381 or 18.8% fewer than in May 2006. 5,132 were newly registered as unemployed, 3,998 of whom had lost work; 4,137 unemployed people were hired. The number of registered unemployed declined by a further 2,451 for other reasons. The flows were similar as in April, but the difference between the number of people who found work and those who lost it decreased. Along with the decline in total employment, the number of registered unemployed is also falling in some critical categories, but the shares of these categories in total unemployment are rising again. The shares of youth and first-time job-seekers are decreasing while the shares of the elderly and of the long-term unemployed are rising. The share of the unemployed aged over 50 rose from 25.1% to 31.5% in a year, while the share of those aged over 40 increased from 46.1% to 52.7%. The share of the long-term unemployed increased from 48.5% in May 2006 to 52.0% in May 2007. The average duration of unemployment lengthened by 2 months and 12 days over a year (to 26 months and 18 days), the most for the unqualified unemployed - by 3.5 months (to 36 months and 3 days). The shares of unemployed women and highly-educated people are rising as well. Within the total number of the unemployed, there were 55.4% of the former and 9.9% of the latter in May, while their numbers are gradually decreasing. In the five months to May, on average 2,180 unemployed persons had a higher education and 5,072 had university qualifications. The declared labour demand and the number of people hired were lower in May this year than in 2006. The former (19,338) fell by 4.9% while the latter (13,393) decreased by 3.5%. Both categories also shrank in comparison with April this year, by 6.1% and 6.8%, respectively. Graph: Shares of characteristic categories of registered unemployment, by quarter 2005-2007 60 nt 50 e my 40 o m e 30 n u 20 tot C 10 Unemployed for over one year -A- Unskilled -0- First-job seekers -3K-Aged over 50 2004 average Q1 2005 Q2 Q3 Source of data: Q4 Q1 2006 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2007 - With a higher education B C D E 0 Earnings Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 6/2007 p. 11 Gross wage per employee, growth index Wages in In nominal terms In real terms1 EUR Apr 2007 Apr 07/ Mar 07 Apr 07/ Apr 06 Jan-Apr 07/ Jan-Apr 06 Apr 07/ Mar 07 Apr 07/ Apr 06 Jan-Apr 07/ Jan-Apr 06 Gross wage per employee, total 1,237.42 98.8 105.9 105.5 97.7 103.2 103.0 Private sector (activities A-K) 1,163.55 98.3 106.9 106.5 97.2 104.2 104.0 A Agriculture 1,024.69 100.1 109.4 107.2 99.0 106.6 104.7 B Fisheries 1,069.74 116.4 109.9 99.6 115.2 107.1 97.2 C Mining and quarrying 1,487.39 98.6 103.3 103.5 97.5 100.7 101.1 D Manufacturing 1,068.94 97.3 107.1 106.2 96.2 104.3 103.7 E Electricity, gas and water supply 1,483.26 98.9 104.2 103.3 97.8 101.6 100.9 F Construction 1,010.79 97.3 107.5 107.2 96.3 104.8 104.7 G Wholesale, retail; certain repairs 1,129.95 98.9 108.6 108.2 97.8 105.9 105.6 H Hotels and restaurants 904.92 99.9 104.4 104.1 98.8 101.8 101.6 I Transport, storage & communications 1,316.15 96.9 105.4 106.3 95.8 102.7 103.9 J Financial intermediation 1,897.03 103.7 106.5 107.5 102.5 103.8 105.0 K Real estate, renting, business services 1,300.07 98.4 105.6 105.4 97.4 103.0 102.9 Public services (activities L to O) 1,454.06 100.1 104.2 103.7 99.0 101.5 101.2 L Public administration 1,451.86 100.5 103.8 102.8 99.4 101.2 100.4 M Education 1,533.21 100.2 105.5 105.0 99.1 102.8 102.5 N Health and social work 1,386.12 101.3 103.2 102.8 100.2 100.6 100.4 O Other social and personal services 1,388.74 96.3 102.9 103.8 95.3 100.3 101.3 Source of data: SORS and IMAD's calculations for the private sector and public services. Note: deflated by the consumer price index. The gross wage per employee declined as expected in April, by 1.2% in nominal and by 2.3% in real terms. The three-day shorter working month resulted in an 1.7% decrease in the private sector's gross wages (activities A to K). The effect of the shorter working month was most visible in the group of industry and construction (C, D, E, F) where the gross wage per employee fell by a nominal 2.6%. After these activities recorded the highest growth in wages in the previous month, they now also witnessed the biggest drop. In production services (activities G, H, and I), the nominal decline in the gross wage per employee was somewhat smaller (-1.6%). The biggest drop within this group was seen in transport, storage, and communications. The average gross wage in business services (J, K) remained at approximately the same nominal level as in March. It edged up by 0.1% in nominal terms, mainly due to the increase in earnings in financial intermediation. The average gross wage in public services (L to O) also remained roughly at the March level, going up by 0.1% in nominal terms. The biggest increase was recorded in health care, which is typical for this month when there are more hours worked on duty due to holidays. In the four months to April, the average gross wage rose by 5.5% in nominal terms while retaining the 3.0% real growth from the first quarter. In the same period of 2006 and 2005, the real gross wage increased by 2.7% and 2.0%, respectively. The gross wage in the private sector rose at a faster pace, by 6.5% in nominal and 4.0% in real terms. The respective increases in the same period of 2006 and 2005 totalled 3.2% and 2.6%. The growth of gross wages in public services was slower. It totalled 3.7% in nominal and 1.2% in real terms. Public services also recorded slower earnings growth than the private sector in the comparable period of 2006 and 2005 (1.6% and 0.3%, respectively, real terms). Since 2002, the gross wage has been rising by around 1% annually in real terms, except in 2004 when it fell by 0.8% (as a result of the replacement of the adjustment percentage with additional pension insurance in July 2003). The growth of gross wages in the public sector is slower because part of the indexation is set aside for the elimination of disparities in public sector wages. The negotiations on the collective agreement for the public sector and sectoral collective agreements are due to be closed by the end of the year. The reduction of wage disparities is due to begin in 2008. The IMAD's Spring Forecast 2007 assumed that disparities would begin to be eliminated already at the end of 2007. Due to this effect, the increase in the public sector gross wages in 2007 was estimated around 1 p.p. higher. Graph: Nominal gross wage per employee by groups of activities May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Source of data: SORS, calculations by IMAD. Jan 2007 Manufacturing Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 6/2007 p. 12 Growth rates, % Selected economic indicators April 2007/ April 2007/ Jan-Apr 2007/ Jan-Dec 2006/ March 2007 April 2006 Jan-Apr 2006 Jan-Dec 2005 Production value1 -7.9 14.5 11.4 6.5 - highly export-oriented industries'2 -5.0 16.2 13.3 7.6 - mainly export-oriented industries3 -11.2 16.6 13.0 8.8 - mainly domestic-market-oriented industries4 -2.7 8.2 6.1 0.2 Average number of employees 0.1 1.3 1.0 -1.7 Labour productivity -8.0 13.0 10.3 8.3 Level of inventories5 1.4 9.0 6.3 1.8 Turnover5 -9.4 9.7 8.9 5.2 New orders5 -4.5 14.0 9.4 5.5 Industrial producer prices (domestic market) 0.1 3.7 3.9 2.3 - producer prices/inflation -1.0 1.1 1.5 -0.2 Source of data: SORS; IMAD's calculations. Notes: real growth calculated on the basis of data on production value - SORS' recalculation with the IPI (provisional data); Manufacturing industries (DG. DK. DM) which have, according to data on Slovenian commercial companies from the AJPES (2005), earned over 70% of their average net revenues from sales in foreign markets in the last three years on average; Manufacturing industries (DB. DC. DD. DH. DJ. DL. DN) which have earned 50% to 70% of their average net revenues from sales in foreign markets in the last three years on average; "manufacturing industries (DA. DE. DF. DI) which have earned less than 50% of their average net revenues from sales in foreign markets in the last three years; 5real growth. April's drop in production activity was seasonal; at the year-on-year level, production continues to increase. According to the SORS' provisional data, the value of production fell by 7.9% compared with March, which was 3 working days longer. According to seasonally and working-day adjusted data, however, production continued to grow in April. Compared with April 2006, industrial production rose by 14.5%, and by 11.4% if the data are controlled for the different number of working days involved. At the year-on-year level, the strong growth from the first quarter strengthened further and totalled 11.4% in the four months to April. In April, the increase in turnover from sales in the domestic market was again higher than in foreign markets. In the first four months of the year, turnover from sales in the domestic market rose by a real 9.2% while the increase in the foreign market totalled 8.8% (7.2% in the euro area and 11.3% in the foreign currency area). The metal industry has been the main contributor to the expansion of manufacturing this year. Half of the 14 manufacturing sub-industries recorded over 10% growth in the four months to April. The fastest growth in the analysed period was observed in wood-processing -DD (19.6%) and the manufacture of metals and metal products - DJ. The latter industry, which already achieved high growth rates in 2006, increased its production volume by 17.4% in the first four months this year. In addition to the supportive international environment, this industry is also benefiting from the vigorous construction activity at home. The turnover generated in the domestic market rose by a real 16% in the four months to April, while the turnover from foreign markets was up 13.6%. Given this robust growth and the fact that the metal industry is the biggest sub-industry of Slovenian manufacturing, it is not surprising that it contributed more than a quarter to manufacturing's total growth in the four months. This industry is also important for the performance of the labour market. According to the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), it employed 43,962 workers in April (19.1% of the workers employed in manufacturing), 112 more than a month ago and a remarkable 2,855 more than a year ago. However, the boom in the metal industry also involves a high environmental impact. This is one of the most energy-intensive industries that generates less than one-fifth of manufacturing's value added but consumes about one-third of the energy used by this sector (see SEM 5/2007: 17). After the record-high levels seen in recent months, business expectations slipped somewhat in June. The seasonally-adjusted value of the confidence indicator (comprising total order books, inventories, and production expectations) was two percentage points lower than in May. The expectations regarding the production in the next three months declined the most but the estimated level of total order books also slipped somewhat. Among the indicators of expectations, which are not included in the confidence indicator, export expectations fell considerably while the expected total demand is still rising. Graph: Manufacturing's industrial production ■ Original series Trend / cycle ■ I rend / cycle - Seasonally and working-day adjusted Source of data: SORS, IMAD's calculations using the Tramo-Seats method. Distributive Trades Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 6/2007 p. 13 Growth rates, % Selected distributive trades indicators Q1 2007/ Q1 2006/ Q2 2006/ Q3 2006/ Q4 2006/ Q1 2006 Q12005 Q2 2005 Q3 2005 Q4 2005 Total nominal turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of 4.5 9.9 9.0 6.3 3.9 motor vehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels Turnover in retail trade 5.6 3.2 3.9 0.8 2.2 Sale of food, beverages and tobacco 1.7 -2.9 1.0 -0.8 -1.8 Sale of non-food products 9.9 10.3 7.3 2.8 6.9 Turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles and 3.7 17.4 14.8 12.8 5.9 retail sale of automotive fuel Motor vehicles, motorcycles, parts and accessories 8.4 10.7 7.0 15.8 10.8 Maintenance and repair of motor vehicles 6.1 23.9 11.4 15.3 9.0 Automotive fuel -2.6 25.4 26.9 10.0 -0.5 Total nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade 19.3 8.4 9.0 11.6 11.6 Average gross wage per employee1, 2 5.6 3.1 2.1 2.6 4.3 Average number of people in employment1 2.0 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.9 Real growth of value added in distributive trades1 8.1 5.8 5.3 5.9 5.5 Source of data: SORS, calculations by IMAD. Notes: in wholesale and retail trade, the repair of motor vehicles, and personal and household goods; 2deflated by the consumer price index. After the excellent results seen in 2006, the growth of value added in wholesale and retail trade, the repair of motor vehicles, and personal and household goods (activity G) recorded a further substantial increase in the first quarter this year. In real terms, value added was 8.1% higher than in the first quarter of 2006, marking the highest growth since 2000. The acceleration in the year-on-year growth rate of value added in distributive trades was strongly influenced by the high activity in construction and manufacturing since, according to the SORS' survey, the largest increase in turnover was recorded in wholesale trade (see the table) and in some segments of retail trade most closely linked to those two activities (e.g. the sale of non-food products). The strong performance of distributive trades is also reflected in the high 2% growth in the number of employees in this activity. The increase in employment was the highest in wholesale (3.0%) and retail trade (2.2%), while the number of workers employed in the sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles, and in retail sales of automotive fuels declined by 1.1%. The higher increase in retail trade's turnover was largely the result of the stronger sales of non-food products and a rise in the turnover from food sales (see the table). Within the sale of non-food products, the largest nominal increase in turnover was again recorded in specialised shops selling furniture, household equipment, and construction material (by 27.8%). The turnover in non-specialised shops mainly selling nonfood products rose by 7.8% in the first quarter this year after its negative year-on-year growth in the final quarter of 2006. The turnover in the sale of food products, beverages, and tobacco rose slightly in y-o-y terms in both non-specialised shops mainly selling food and in specialised shops selling food, beverages, and tobacco; however, due to last year's drop it has still not rebounded to the 2005 level in either of the two activities. The turnover in the sale and repair of motor vehicles and in retail sale of automotive fuels rose by a nominal 3.7%. Within that, turnover in the sale of motor vehicles, motorcycles, parts, and accessories increased by 8.4%, the turnover in the repair and maintenance of motor vehicles went up by 6.1%, whereas the turnover in the sale of automotive fuels decreased. The good performance of motor vehicles sales is also corroborated by the number of newly registered cars, which rose by 8.4% in the first quarter over the same period of 2006. Graph: Indices of nominal turnover in distributive trades Retail trade Retail sale of fuels ■ Sale of motor vehicles Wholesale trade 100 Q1 2003 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2004 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2005 Source of data: SORS Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2006 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2007 Tourism Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 6/2007 p. 14 Selected indicators for tourism & hotels and restaurants Growth rates, % Q1 2007/ Q1 2006 Q12006/ Q1 2005 Q2 2006/ Q2 2005 Q3 2006/ Q3 2005 Q4 2006/ Q4 2005 Overnight stays, total 4.8 3.1 0.5 0.4 6.6 Domestic tourists 0.5 5.7 -5.6 1.8 7.3 Foreign tourists 9.0 0.6 4.7 -0.4 6.0 Average number of people in employment1 2.1 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.9 Average gross wage per employee1, 2 1.6 2.3 2.6 0.8 2.0 Prices of hotel and restaurant services, total3 6.9 3.9 4.6 4.6 4.6 Prices of catering services3 7.6 4.1 4.5 4.5 4.7 Prices of accommodation services3 4.0 3.0 4.2 4.0 4.1 Source of data: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 'hotels and restaurants; 2deflated by the CPI; 3CPI group or sub-group. The favourable tourism results from 2006 continued in the first months of 2007. The number of overnight stays increased by 4.8% in the first quarter of 2007, year on year, while the number of tourists rose by 7.6%. All three months were favourable for tourism, with the highest growth being recorded in February (by 7.2% and 19.6%, respectively). April enjoyed even more favourable results as the number of tourists surged by 18.3% over April 2006 while the number of their stays went up by 19.2%. The favourable distribution of April and May holidays, coupled with good weather in this period, contributed to the high, 25.3% increase in the number of domestic guests and a 22.6% increase in their overnight stays. The number of foreign tourists and their overnight stays also rose substantially. In the four months to April, 10.8% more tourists stayed on a vacation in Slovenia and made 8.4% overnight stays more than in the same period of 2006. The number of residents' stays rose by 4.8% while that of nonresidents' stays was up 11.5%. In the first quarter of the year, the prices of catering services rose more than in previous quarters. Their increase at the y-o-y level was 7.6%, compared with the 4.4% average rise in 2006. The increase in the prices of catering services in the first quarter can be partly attributed to the adoption of the euro, as shown by the analysis of the effect of euro adoption on inflation in Slovenia, published by the IMAD at the beginning of March. In contrast with the prices of catering services, the dynamics of the prices of accommodation services saw no major changes (see the table). In 2006, tourists made most overnight stays in health, seaside and mountain resorts, with the highest increase having once again been recorded in Ljubljana. The total number of stays by type of resort did not change significantly in comparison with previous years, but the structure of domestic and foreign tourists changed more visibly. Domestic tourists made most overnight stays in health resorts throughout the 19912006 period, in recent years increasingly so. In 2006, the share of overnight stays made by residents in health resorts in total residents' stays rose by 1.1 p.p. to 48.8%. Health resorts were the only destination, apart from other tourist resorts, in which the number of overnight stays increased from 2005. Foreign tourists mostly stayed in mountain, seaside and health resorts last year, similarly as in previous years. For the third year running, Ljubljana recorded the biggest increase in non-residents' stays in 2006 (13.7% y-o-y, half more than in 2003). In addition to the increased interest in Ljubljana as the capital of a new EU member state, the stronger tourist inflow was also underpinned by the launching of some new airlines. The number of nonresidents' overnight stays also rose in health resorts (by 2.2%), other tourist resorts, and other towns. The number of overnight stays in mountain resorts declined in 2006 after several years of growth. Visits to seaside resorts also declined again. Graph: Number of residents' and non-residents' overnight stays by type of resort (2006) 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 □ Foreign tourists' overnight stays □ Domestic tourists' overnight stays Ljubljana (the capital) Health resorts Seaside resorts Mountain resorts Other tourist resorts Other places Source of data: SORS. Private Consumption and Household Indebtedness Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 6/2007 p. 15 Selected private consumption and household indebtedness indicators Real year-on-year growth rates, %* Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Private consumption1 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.0 3.3 Turnover in retail trade2 2.9 2.8 -0.3 0.3 2.3 New car registrations3 0.2 -1.2 7.2 9.0 8.4 Consumer confidence indicator4 -16.0 -16.0 -12.0 -12.0 -7.3 Commercial banks' loans to households (end-of-period stock)5 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.7 25.0 Household savings in banks (end-of-period stock)5 5.5 6.1 6.1 7.7 8.7 Sources of data: SORS, DUNZ, BS, calculations by IMAD. Notes: 'unless otherwise indicated; SORS, real growth rate - consumption of households The year-on-year growth of household consumption (3.4%) strengthened somewhat in the first quarter (3.2% in Q1 of 2006). The accelerated growth of consumption was indicated by some short-term consumption indicators - notably consumer confidence and new car registrations, whereas the increase in retail trade turnover was somewhat lower than last year. Income indicators do not provide an unequivocal explanation of the evolution of household receipts. The net wage bill (according to AJPES) rose by a real 0.4% in the first quarter, year on year. On the other hand, the SORS' data on the growth of the average net wage and persons in paid employment show that the net wage bill rose relatively significantly (by 7.5%; compared with less than half this growth -3.4% - achieved in the same period of 2006). The reason for the growth of the wage bill is the increase in net wages due to the changed personal income tax rates and the increase in persons employed by legal entities (by 2.7% y-o-y; in Q1 of 2006 by 0.8%). Although these two indicators are based on two different methodologies of data collection, their observed dynamics from the previous periods were very similar. The most notable short-term consumption indicators are high consumer confidence and an increase in new car registrations. The consumer confidence indicator reached its highest value in the first quarter (consumers gave the highest estimates thus far to the advisability of saving and the current financial situation in the household). After the poor performance in the first two months (0.2% and -0.9%), in March turnover in retail trade enjoyed the highest year-on-year increase (7.6%) since December 2005 (also see p. 13). Even so, the turnover rose by 0.6 p.p. less than last year in the first quarter. Within retail trade, the highest growth generally was recorded in the group furniture, household appliances, and construction material; the 25% rise is in line with our estimated increase in the purchases of durable and semi-durable goods in 2007 (see e.g. Spring Report 2006, p. 56). The increase in the turnover in the sale of motor vehicles (11.3%) is consistent with the high growth of new car registrations (8.4%), which began to increase in the middle of 2006. Both non-residents' spending in Slovenia (-25.0%) and residents' spending abroad (-9.4%) declined. In the structure of exports of services, travel now comprises only 27.7% (in 2006 almost 40%), but this seems to be related to the change in the balance of payments methodology (changeover to direct reporting; also see p. 5), which is precisely what caused the relatively high nominal growth of household consumption (8.6%), because consumption in the domestic market is increased by residents' spending abroad (which represented 3.7% of the consumption in the domestic market) and decreased by nonresidents' spending in Slovenia (9.2% of the consumption in the domestic market) which, however, dropped significantly and resident consumption was therefore higher. Some consumption indicators also recorded favourable dynamics in the second quarter. The dynamics of the net wage bill according to the AJPES (6.6%) and the SORS (7.4%) were similar again after three months of strong divergence. In April and May together, 13.6% more new cars were registered than a year ago. The consumer confidence indicator was again high in the second quarter (-9.0). On the other hand, the strong growth of retail trade turnover seen in March did not continue in April (2.0%). The year-on-year nominal growth of the volume of loans moderated somewhat. Despite the high base, the volume of housing loans is growing at the fastest pace (39.7%; its growth rate almost halved in comparison with March 2006). The volume of consumer loans increased by 15.6% (in March 2006 by 9.4%), while the volume of other loans rose by 22.3% (17.8%). The net flows were a good one-tenth higher in nominal terms than in the first quarter of 2006 (when they rose by more than half). The highest nominal growth rates of net flows were achieved by other loans (57.7%) while the flows of housing and consumer loans were slightly lower than a year ago (by 0.2% and 2.7%, respectively). The year-on-year growth rate of the volume of loans fell to 24.3% in April, which is the lowest rate since June 2005, while their net flows declined by 2.5%. Graph: Private consumption with related indicators and net flows of loans E ra 320 300 280 J 260 Ë 01 240 g 220 200 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2006 Sources of data: SORS, AJPES, MF, BS, calculations by IMAD. Q1 2007 □ Private consumption □ Net flows of loans, right axis — Wage bill, SORS ■ Turnover in retail trade — Wage bill, AJPES Selected Topics Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 6/2007 pp. 17-24 Youth in Secondary Schools by Type of Education Programme Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 6/2007 p. 19 Youth enrolled1 in secondary schools Graduates2 of secondary schools Number Change in number (%) Structure (%) Number Change in number (%) 06/07 05/0606/07 00/0106/07 00/01 05/06 06/07 05/06 04/0505/06 00/0105/06 Total 96,310 -3.6 -8.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 24.021 0.7 -3.9 2-year lower vocational p. 1,625 -14.6 -52.7 3.3 1.9 1.7 601 -10.6 -41.9 3-year middle vocational p. 15,939 -9.8 -37.8 24.4 17.7 16.5 5.054 -7.2 -26.6 4- and 5- year technical and other professional p. 32,078 -1.6 -4.6 32.1 32.6 33.3 6.725 4.4 -15.5 Grammar schools 37,850 -1.5 11.6 32.4 38.5 39.3 8.629 7.0 39.8 3+2 and differential programmes 7,047 -5.1 -9.2 7.4 7.4 7.3 2.355 -10.7 -16.7 Vocational course 343 11.0 261.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 176 87.2 1.073.3 Matura course 1,428 -7.6 277.8 0.4 1.5 1.5 481 -2.6 353.8 Source-, SORS, Rapid Reports No. 34, 2007; No. 203, 2006; No. 66, 2004; No. 270, 2002. Notes: 1data for the beginning of the academic year; 2data for the end of academic year. The participation of youth in secondary education is increasing. Due to the smaller generation sizes, the number of youth enrolled in secondary schools declined in 2000/2001-2006/2007, to 96,310 in 2006/2007 (2005/2006: 99,860; 2000/2001: 104,840), but the percentage of the generation aged 15-19 enrolled in secondary schools increased to total 79.2% in 2006/2007 (2000/2001: 75.3%). This rise was partly due to the changed structure of youth enrolled in secondary schools by type of programme. The percentage of youth enrolled in 2- and 3-year vocational schools is declining while the percentage of youth in 4- and 5-year programmes is growing, which is why young people remain in secondary education for a longer time. Due to the declining numbers of youth enrolled in secondary schools, the number of secondary school graduates also fell in the observed period, to 24,021 in 2005/2006 (2000/2001: 25,002). The number of youth in vocational and professional schools is decreasing whereas the number of those in technical and professional schools remains approximately the same. One of the main objectives of vocational and technical education is to acquire the knowledge, competences, and skills required for work. In 2000/2001-2006/2007, the percentage of youth in lower and middle vocational schools declined considerably, as did their number (see the table). The number of graduates from these programmes is consequently falling as well. Due to the diminishing enrolment of youth in vocational schools in recent years, the number of graduates from these programmes is expected to continue falling in the future. The percentages of pupils in 4- and 5-year technical and other professional programmes and in 3+2 and differential programmes remain roughly the same. The share of pupils enrolled in the vocational course, mainly intended for those who finished grammar school and wish to obtain secondary vocational qualifications, increased slightly. Enrolment in grammar schools is rising. One of the main goals of grammar schools is to prepare pupils for higher education studies. The policy of encouraging young people to study at university resulted in an increase in the share of youth enrolled in grammar schools between 2000/2001 and 2006/2007 and consequently in the share of graduates from these programmes (2005/2006: 35.9%; 2000/2001: 24.7%), which impacted on the size of the potential population for enrolment in universities. Enrolment in a university is conditional on having successfully passed the matura exam, which may be taken by pupils who successfully completed the fourth year of grammar school or the matura course. 2.0% of youth completed the latter in 2005/2006 (0.4% in 2000/2001). Given that the percentages of youth enrolled in general and technical grammar schools and in the matura course are rising, we can expect an additional increase in the percentage of graduates from these schools. Graph: Structure of secondary school graduates by type of education programme 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 4— 50% -I— 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2000/2001 2001/2002 2002/2003 2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 Sources of data: SORS, Rapid Reports No 34/2007, No 203/2006, No 86/2006, No 66/2004. □ Matura course □ Vocational course □ Grammar schools □ 4- & 5-year technical and other professional programmes □ 3+2 programmes and in differencial programmes □ 3-year middle vocational programmes □ 2-year lower vocational programmes Youth in Secondary Schools by Field of Study Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 6/2007 p. 20 Youth enrolled1 in secondary schools Graduates2 of secondary schools Number A of the number (%) Structure (%) Number A of the number (%) Structure (%) 06/07 00/0106/07 00/01 05/06 06/07 05/06 00/0105/06 00/01 04/05 05/06 Total 96,310 -8.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 24.021 -3.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 Agriculture 3,954 -32.8 5.6 4.4 4.1 1.264 -28.1 7.0 5.3 5.3 Forestry 119 -15.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 41 13.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 Leather processing - - 0.04 - - - - 0.1 - - Textiles 219 -88.9 1.9 0.3 0.2 105 -86.2 3.0 0.8 0.4 Chemistry, pharmacy, rubber processing and nonmetals 1,042 -6.8 1.1 1.0 1.1 228 -10.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 Wood processing 1,968 -39.0 3.1 2.2 2.0 625 -35.6 3.9 2.9 2.6 Construction 1,968 -26.7 2.6 2.0 2.0 473 -35.1 2.9 2.1 2.0 Catering and tourism 5,000 -9.9 5.3 5.3 5.2 1.269 7.3 4.7 5.1 5.3 Economics 15,628 -27.0 20.4 17.8 16.2 4.894 -17.5 23.7 21.7 20.4 Paper and printing 994 68.5 0.6 1.0 1.0 191 85.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 Electrotechnics and computer science 7,899 5.7 7.1 7.6 8.2 1.574 -11.6 7.1 6.1 6.6 Metallurgy and mechanical engineering 7,118 -13.0 7.8 7.2 7.4 1.840 -18.4 9.0 8.0 7.7 Transport and communications 1,324 11.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 234 13.0 0.8 1.2 1.0 Mining 97 -30.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 22 -33.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 Human health activities 5,916 11.0 5.1 5.7 6.1 1.254 7.4 4.7 5.0 5.2 Teacher training 1,767 70.1 1.0 1.7 1.8 395 145.3 0.6 1.2 1.6 Social sciences - - 0.8 - - - - 0.9 - - Culture 534 -20.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 71 -39.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 Grammar schools3 39,278 14.5 32.7 40.0 40.8 9.110 45.1 25.1 36.3 37.9 Personal services 1,485 -47.2 2.7 1.6 1.5 431 -52.1 3.6 1.9 1.8 Internal affairs - - - 0.2 - - - 0.4 - - Youth in secondary education by field of study Source of data: SORS, Rapid Reports No. 34, 2007; No. 203, 2006; No. 66, 2004; No. 270, 2002. Notes: 1data for the beginning of the academic year; 2data for the end of the academic year. ^Youth enrolled in grammar schools and participating in the preparatory courses for the final examination (matura). 4A few pupils were enrolled in leather processing programmes in 2001/2002, but their number is so small that their share equals 0.0% when rounded up. The main purpose of vocational and technical secondary education is to equip young people with the knowledge and skills they will need at work. In order for the national economy to function well it is vital that the structure of youth who have graduated from secondary schools and the structure of youth enrolled in secondary schools is adapted to current and future labour market needs. The main challenge of education and employment policies is to encourage young people to opt for vocations facing a shortage based on the anticipated future needs in the labour market. The structure of young graduates from secondary schools by field of study changed somewhat from 2000/2001 till 2005/2006. The percentage of graduates fell in most fields except in grammar schools, which recorded a considerable increase (see the table). 2005/2006 saw the highest percentage of youth who finished grammar school, whereas the shares of graduates in other types of schools (technical and vocational) declined. The second highest shares were recorded in economics, followed by metallurgy and mechanical engineering. The lowest shares of young graduates were observed in the fields of mining, forestry, and culture. The structure of youth enrolled in secondary schools is also changing. In 2006/2007, the percentage of youth enrolled in grammar schools was the highest, followed by economics and metallurgy and mechanical engineering. The lowest shares were observed in the mining, forestry, and textiles schools (see the table). Compared with 2005/2006, the percentages of youth enrolled in specific fields rose in six out of 18 fields, mostly in grammar schools, followed by electrotechnics and computer science, and health care. The sharpest drops in the shares of enrolled pupils were seen in economics, agriculture, and forestry. The number of enrolled pupils declined in most fields of study during the period analysed (see Graph 2), which will affect the number of graduates in each field and consequently the supply of youth for specific profiles in the labour market. Although the structure of enrolled pupils and the structure of graduates have changed in the period since 2000/2001, the changes have been too slow in some fields (e.g. construction, catering and tourism). The number of graduates from secondary schools of economics is declining. It fell to 4,894 in 2005/2006 (down from 5,934 in 2000/2001). This drop is considerably bigger than the Slovenian average in percentage terms (see the table). Since the number of youth enrolled in this field is declining as well (down from 17,747 to 15,628), we expect that the number of graduates in this field will decline somewhat further in the years ahead. Youth in Secondary Schools by Field of Study Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 6/2007 p. 21 The number of secondary school graduates in electrotechnics and computer science, and in metallurgy and mechanical engineering has declined. The number of the former fell to 1,574 in 2005/2006 (1,780 in 2000/2001), while the number of the latter declined to 1,840 (from 2,256). We presume that young people partly base their decisions on further study in the field of study they completed at secondary school. The share of students and graduates at the tertiary level of science and technology studies, which also include mechanical engineering, electrotechnics, and computer science, is relatively low in Slovenia. One way to increase the percentage of science and technology students at the tertiary level could be to encourage young people to study these fields at secondary school. It would therefore be reasonable to already promote enrolment in these fields at the secondary education level. In 2006/2007, the number of pupils enrolled in electrotechnics and computer science schools rose while the number of those enrolled in metallurgy and mechanical engineering did not (see graph 2). Given the current trends we do not expect a significant increase in the number of young graduates from these fields in the next few years. The number of young people who finished secondary schools in the field of textiles has decreased. In 2005/2006 it dropped to 105 (from 761 in 2000/2001). This decline was largely caused by the recession in the Slovenian textile industry. The number of pupils enrolled in textile schools is declining rapidly. It fell by 28.2% between 2005-2006 and 2006-2007 alone. Due to the drop in enrolment seen in recent years we can expect that the number of graduates from this field will continue to decline in the future. Enrolment should be raised in the fields of catering and tourism, and construction. Labour skilled in catering, tourism, and construction is in shortage in Slovenia, but the structure of youth enrolled in schools has not adapted to market needs. There were 473 graduates from construction schools in 2005/2006, their number having declined since 2000/2001. The number of youth enrolled in secondary schools of construction is falling as well, and we can therefore expect an additional decline in the number of graduates from this field in the years to come. The second field encountering shortages of skilled workers is catering and tourism. Although the number of graduates in this field increased from 2000/2001 to 2005/2006, the rise totalled a mere 7%. Both fields are facing the same problem - an under-average percentage of pupils who successfully finish each school year (average: 90.6%; construction: 87.7%, catering and tourism: 84.9%), despite an improvement in this rate in both fields from around 80% in 2000/2001. Graph 1: Changes in the number of secondary school graduates, total and by field of study, 2004/20052005/2006 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 IE i r ^ 8 = Vir podatkov : SURS. Graph 2: Changes in the number of youth enrolled in secondary schools, total and by field of study, 2005/2006-2006/2007 500 0 -500 -1,000 -1,500 -2,000 -2,500 -3,000 -3,500 -4,000 izzn=n= E E Vir podatkov SURS. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 6/2007 p. 22 Graph 1: Increase in greenhouse gas emissions and GDP growth in 2000-2004 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 □ GDP Greenhouse gas emissions LU FI MT AT ES EE LV SI IT CY GR SK PT HU EU EU SE NL BE PL FR DK IE UK DE CZ LT Source of data: Eurostat. 15 25 It has been scientifically proved that global warming is the result of human activity (IPCC, 2007: Fourth Assessment Report). Over the past 100 years, the average global temperature has increased (by 0.7'C; in Europe by 0.9'C) and the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere has exceeded the pre-industrial level. The last decade has been the warmest in the period since temperatures have been measured instrumentally (from 1850), and the growth of GHG concentrations has been higher than in the past 50 years on average. This is due primarily to fossil fuel combustion in the energy and transport sectors. In 2005, the Kyoto Protocol came into force as a supplement to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change whose aim is to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate change. Together with other developed countries that ratified the Kyoto Protocol, both the EU (then comprising 15 countries) and Slovenia made a commitment to reduce GHG emissions by 8% in the 2008-2012 period relative to the base year (1990; for Slovenia: 1986). To achieve this target, the EU-15 agreed on burden-sharing, which means that eight countries received reduction targets, two had targets for emissions on parity with 1990 levels while five countries were allowed increases (see Graph 3). To reach its Kyoto target, the EU introduced an internal GFG emissions trading system, which is one of the flexible Kyoto mechanisms. The other two flexible mechanisms are the Joint Implementation for projects aimed at reducing emissions by contracting parties to the Kyoto Protocol and the Clean Development Mechanism in developing countries. The Kyoto parties may also achieve part of their GHG emissions reduction targets through carbon sinks by expanding wood increments or by forestation, however only as a consequence of human activity. The structure of GHG emissions in Slovenia is similar to the global structure. The greatest contributor is carbon dioxide (82.2% in 2005; ARSO), which is generated mainly by the combustion of fuel; it is followed by methane (10.4%) deriving mostly from waste and agriculture, and nitrous oxide (N2O, 6.3%), whose main sources are again agriculture and transport. Emissions of F-gases (HFC, PFC, and SF6 -industrial gases that are replacing ozone-harming substances and are used as refrigerants and in the manufacture of plastic foams, pneumatics, shoes etc.) are very small (1.2%) but their effect is far from insignificant due to their large greenhouse effect. GHG emissions have risen slightly since 2000, in both some of the old and some of the new EU member states. In 2004, GHG emissions in the EU-15 were 0.9% below the base year (1990) level. In this period, there was a substantial increase in GHG emissions from transport; the energy sector's emissions also rose somewhat, while other sectors cut their emissions. The UK and Germany, which produce almost a third of the EU's total emissions, reduced their emissions from the energy sector significantly; the first mainly by a shift to gas fuel, the second by improving the efficiency of energy production from coal. Emissions in the EU-10 were 23% below the base level in 2004, largely as a result of the restructuring of these economies in the transition period. However, transport emissions of these countries have also risen sharply since 1995. In the period since 2000, GHG emissions in the EU-15 have been rising slightly, with notable rising trends being observed in Luxembourg, Finland, Austria, Spain, and Italy. In these countries (except Spain), the increase in emissions was also higher than GDP growth in the analysed period (see Graph 1). GHG emissions decreased in the UK and Germany, the two largest emitters in the EU, and in Ireland and Denmark. In the EU-10, emissions in 2000-2004 only declined in the Czech Republic, while the largest increases were observed in Malta, Estonia, Latvia and Slovenia. Comparing the performance of countries only for 2004, the biggest reductions were recorded in Denmark and Finland while the highest increases were observed in Lithuania, Luxembourg, Spain, Malta and Slovenia. The lagging of emissions growth behind GDP growth is relatively less favourable in Slovenia than in other EU countries. By sector, most emissions are generated in the energy sector excluding transport (59%), in transport (21%), agriculture (9%), industrial processes (8%), and waste disposal (3%). The percentages are given for the EU-15 average in 2004 and are practically equal for Slovenia. Economic growth as a lever of energy consumption is a significant factor of GHG generation. However, emissions also depend on energy sources, technologies, economic structure and factors that determine efficient energy use. In agriculture and waste, the level of emissions produced largely depends on sustainable development factors (waste management, intensity of livestock breeding). In Slovenia, economic growth has been faster than GHG emissions growth since 1995, except in 2001. Since 2001, the gap has averaged 2.8 p.p.; it was bigger in 2003 when emissions decreased (as a result of slower GDP growth and lower output of the thermal power plant Šoštanj due to its regular overhaul). The lagging of GHG emissions growth Greenhouse Gas Emissions Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 6/2007 p. 23 behind GDP growth in Slovenia was at a similar level as in Sweden, France and Belgium in 2000-2004. This is not a very favourable achievement because these economies are more developed and the contribution of structural changes in the economy to the reduction of emissions is smaller. In addition to other EU-10 countries (except Malta), bigger gaps between GDP and GHG emissions growth were recorded in Ireland, Greece and the UK in this period (see Graph 1). The EU-15 can only achieve the Kyoto target by applying additional measures, whereas the EU-10 will meet its target without any problem due to economic transition. According to the trends observed thus far in GHG emissions, emissions in the EU-15 were still 2.3 p.p. above the target in 2004 (see Graph 2). Only Sweden and the UK are projected to meet or even exceed their targets with existing policies. Finland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, France, Germany, and Greece will meet their targets by employing additional measures and flexible Kyoto mechanisms. Belgium, Denmark, Ireland, Spain, Austria, Italy and Portugal will not reach the target despite all measures and mechanisms. Projections for 2010 (EEA) show that GHG emissions in the EU-15 will only be 0.6% below the base level; flexible Kyoto mechanisms will enable an additional reduction of 2.6 p.p. In order to achieve the 8% reduction target, additional measures will have to be taken to reduce the GHG emissions by a further 4.6 p.p. The use of sinks will contribute 0.8 p.p. to the reduction of emissions. The EU-10 countries (except Cyprus and Malta, which do not have a target under the Kyoto Protocol) are projected to meet their Kyoto targets with existing policies and measures. Slovenia is the only exception, planning to reach its target with additional measures and use of carbon sinks totalling 1.3 Mt CO2, which equals almost 6.5% of GHG emissions in 2005. The EU promotes active and effective policy to reduce the human impacts on climate change. GHG emissions are mostly related to the scope and type of energy production and consumption. Therefore, they can be reduced by shifting technologies, fuels, and raw materials, and by reducing the scale of these activities. The solution to this problem requires a different approach than most other environmental problems because no end-of-pipe systems (such as e.g. filtration systems for SO2 emissions) are available for the reduction of these emissions. The EU plays a leading role in international climate protection. This year's March European Council decided to transform Europe into an energy-efficient and low greenhouse-gas-emitting economy. Under its climate protection policy, the European Council made a firm commitment that until the conclusion of a global and comprehensive post-2012 agreement, and regardless of the commitments of other countries, the EU would achieve at least a 20% reduction of GHG compared to 1990 by 2020, or at least a 30% reduction by 2020 and a 60%-80% reduction by 2050 provided that other countries also commit themselves to comparable reductions and that the more advanced developing countries also contribute adequately according to their capabilities. The internal burden sharing in GHG reductions across member states will be based on the principles of fairness and transparency, and will take into account the national circumstances and the relevant base years for the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, as well as the socioeconomic and other relevant parameters. Graph 2: Distance-to-target (burden-sharing targets) for the EU in 2004, including Kyoto flexible mechanisms and carbon sinks SE UK DE FR NL BE LU GR PT AT ES EU 1 LV EE HU PL SK CZ Source of data: EEA, February 2007. Note: percentage points below (-) or above (+) the target value (hypothetical linear value that should have been achieved in 2004 in order to meet the Kyoto target in 2010); by country classified according to their burden-sharing targets. Graph 3: Kyoto burden-sharing targets for the EU-15 - agreed reductions/increases in greenhouse gas emissions, % 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 I-1 TUT mr ES GR PT SE FR FI LU AT BE Source of data: EEA, 2007. NL DK IT UK DE E Risk of Poverty and Income Inequality Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 6/2007 p. 24 Risk of poverty and income inequality in Slovenia in 2003 and 2004 According to the Household Budget _Survey_ Income excluding income in kind Income including income in kind According to the EU-SILC survey -NEW Income excluding income in kind Income including income in kind Year 2003 2004 2003 2004 2003 2004 2003 2004 At-risk-of-poverty rate, in % 11.7 11.8 10.0 10.4 N/A 12.1* N/A 11.4 At-risk-of-poverty threshold - monthly, in EUR1 366.3 384.6 395 413.4 N/A 439.8 N/A 459.6 At-risk-of-poverty threshold for a household consisting of two adults and two children - monthly, in EUR1 769 807.7 829.8 868.2 N/A 923.6 N/A 965.4 At-risk-of-poverty rate before social transfers (old-age and survivor's pensions are included in income2), in % 18.9 19.4 16.2 17.2 N/A 25.8 N/A 24.8 At-risk-of-poverty rate before all social transfers3, in % 40.8 40.6 36.9 37.4 N/A 42.2 N/A 40.9 Inequality of income distribution - quintile share ratio (80/20) 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.2 N/A 3.4 N/A 3.3 Inequality of income distribution - Gini coefficient, in % 24.0 24.1 22.1 22.4 N/A 23.8 N/A 23.0 Source of data: SORS; Social cohesion indicators, Slovenia, 1997-2003; First Release, 14 October 2005, No. 229; Social cohesion indicators, 2004 -provisional data; First Release; 9 February 2007. Notes: *On Eurostat's website, this figure is published under 2005 because the Eurostat classified it on the basis of the year when the EU-SILC survey was conducted, although the figure is based on income from 2004. Further, the at-risk-of-poverty rate is calculated without including income in kind, although the published 2003 figure was calculated by including income in kind for all new member states and by excluding it for the old member states. According to Eurostat's exchange rate. 2According to data from the Household Budget Survey, income also includes disability pensions. 3The figure only takes into account individuals without pensions or other social transfers - the risk of poverty would be this high if the population did not receive any pensions or other social transfers. Changes in the methodology for calculating at-risk-of-poverty rates and other social cohesion indicators do not allow a direct comparison between the years 2003 and 2004. The EU-SILC (EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions) survey was first conducted in Slovenia in February 2005. The reference year for income from this survey is 2004 (data were published in Feb. 2007). The survey covers various aspects of the population's living standards: income, living conditions, health, activity, and education. This is a panel survey that will allow monitoring individuals over time (4 years), which will serve as the basis for the calculation of a structural indicator - at-persistent-risk-of-poverty rate - which has hitherto not been calculated in Slovenia. Until 2003, the calculation of the risk of poverty and other social cohesion indicators was based on data from the Household Budget Survey, which was primarily intended to measure household expenditure. The new survey enables better data coverage. It is the result of harmonising the methodology with the EU (EC regulation) and is also based on administrative sources (e.g. personal income tax). Further, it ensures a higher statistical value of data than the previous methodology because it includes around 13,500 households (HBS around 3,000). The new survey also brings different methodological approaches such as the inclusion of disability pension in social transfers, a different classification of company car use under income in kind, etc. For this reason, data from the two surveys are not comparable (there is a break in the series). We can only analyse them separately, taking into account the methodological reservations. In order to allow an overview of the changes in the field of social cohesion, however, the national Statistical Office has published data calculated from both sources (see the table). The calculation based on the old methodology shows that in 2004 the risk of poverty and income inequality remained practically on a par with the 2003 levels. In 2004, the at-risk-of-poverty rate (including income in kind) was 10.4% (10.0% in 2003). For the EU-25, figures based on the old methodology are only available for 2003, when the average at-risk-of-poverty rate was 15%. The calculation excluding income in kind for Slovenia shows an 11.8% at-risk-of-poverty rate in 2004 (11.7% in 2003). The indicators of income distribution reveal a very low rate of income inequality. The calculation according to the new methodology shows a relatively low at-risk-of-poverty rate and a very low income inequality. In 2004, the at-risk-of-poverty rate totalled 11.4% if income in kind is included and 12.1% if it is excluded (EU-25 average: 16%). The quintile share ratio showed one of the most even distributions of income (according to both concepts, the income of the richest 20% of the population was a respective 3.4 and 3.3-times higher than the income of the poorest 20%). The quintile share ratio for the EU-25 totalled 4.9. The Gini coefficient was similarly low. It totalled 23.8% if income in kind is excluded (only Sweden and Denmark had lower values in the EU-25) and 23% if income in kind is included. The 12.1% at-risk-of-poverty rate measured in Slovenia is the result of improved methodology. Its main advantage is that it ensures better coverage of income and hence a more precise measurement of the at-risk-of-poverty rate, which is higher than the rate based on the old methodology but does not indicate any change in the trend. The next at-risk-of-poverty rate figure calculated with the new methodology (for 2005) will be published at the end of 2007. Only then (when two figures based on the same methodology are available) will it be possible to conduct statistically correct comparisons between at-risk-of-poverty rates. Statistical Appendix Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 6/2007 pp. 1-17 Gross Domestic Product / I Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 6/2007 p. A 2 2003-2004 constant previous year prices, 2005-2004 constant 2004 prices In SIT m In EUR m Real growth rates in % 2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 2009 2003 2004 2005 2006 forecast 2004 2005 2006 forecast VALUE ADDED BY ACTIVITIES AND GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT A Agriculture, hunting, forestry 123,680 149,634 138,342 132,255 557 563 571 17.1 -5.2 -4.4 1.0 1.0 1.5 B Fishing 896 881 869 884 4 4 4 -16.9 9.5 1.7 0.0 1.0 1.0 C Mining and quarrying 23,617 27,037 30,948 31,737 132 132 1 31 2.5 -0.2 2.6 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 D Manufacturing 1,259,492 1,386,846 1,444,152 1,550,355 6,845 7,176 7,499 4.1 2.8 7.4 5.8 4.8 4.5 E Electricity, gas and water supply 140,256 149,089 173,849 176,805 741 753 756 0.8 6.6 1.7 0.5 1.5 0.5 F Construction 274,175 294,211 322,680 360,659 1,597 1,712 1,772 1.3 4.0 11.8 6.1 7.2 3.5 G Wholesale, retail; certain repairs 553,700 610,259 653,633 689,909 3,003 3,117 3,220 3.1 4.0 5.6 4.3 3.8 3.3 H Hotels and restaurants 110,905 116,979 123,365 130,211 571 601 631 -0.1 0.7 5.6 5.0 5.3 5.0 I Transport, storage and communications 334,458 360,946 451,071 479,488 2,121 2,238 2,383 0.1 9.0 6.3 6.0 5.5 6.5 J Financial intermediation 221,699 260,587 276,319 300,799 1,362 1,464 1,567 17.2 10.4 8.9 8.5 7.5 7.0 K Real estate, renting and business services 742,611 826,027 901,517 939,841 4,091 4,266 4,458 4.7 3.6 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.5 L Public administration and defence 311,343 357,775 349,322 355,784 1,526 1,569 1,600 7.3 2.3 1.9 2.8 2.8 2.0 M Education 269,600 296,231 326,464 333,613 1,426 1,461 1 ,498 2.7 3.0 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.5 N Health and social work 241,059 261,747 278,144 284,263 1,219 1,256 1,300 3.7 2.9 2.2 2.8 3.0 3.5 O Other community and personal services 158,845 175,356 199,499 207,080 907 957 1,010 5.7 5.8 3.8 5.0 5.5 5.5 P Private households with employed persons 1,163 1,228 1,436 1,386 6 6 6 -8.1 5.9 -3.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 VALUE ADDED (A+...+P) 4,767,499 5,274,834 5,671,609 5,975,070 26,108 27,274 28,406 4.5 3.9 5.3 4.7 4.5 4.2 Taxes on products and services 751,595 827,981 884,055 919,417 4,005 4,158 4,320 4.2 4.8 4.0 4.4 3.8 3.9 Less: subsidies on products and services 21,731 31,976 31,237 30,487 125 122 119 7.1 -0.6 -2.4 -2.0 -2.0 -3.0 GDP 5,497,364 6,070,840 6,524,427 6,864,000 29,988 31,309 32,607 4.4 4.0 5.2 4.7 4.4 4.1 Source of data: SORS 2003-2005; IMAD's calculations and Spring Forecast 2007. Real growth rates: SORS 2003-2006; IMAD's calculations and Spring Forecast 2007. Note: a comparison of nominal values is possible under the technical assumption of the SIT/EUR exchange rate = 239.64, which has been used since 2007. Gross Domestic Product / II Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 6/2007 p. A 3 Current prices, in SIT m Current prices, in EUR m Structure in %, current prices, GDP=100 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 forecast forecast SUPPLY AND USE OF GROSS NATIONAL DISPOSABLE INCOME 1. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 5,813,540 6,271,795 6,620,145 7,126,012 31,918 34,444 36,783 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 2. Net primary income from the rest of the world -46,845 -75,400 -61,078 -87,702 -433 -464 -540 -1.2 -0.9 -1.2 -1.4 -1.3 -1.5 3. GROSS NATIONAL INCOME (1+2) 5,766,695 6,196,395 6,559,066 7,038,310 31,485 33,980 36,243 98.8 99.1 98.8 98.6 98.7 98.5 4. Net current transfers from the rest of the world 3,527 -14,815 -32,675 -53,754 -191 -81 -40 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -0.6 -0.2 -0.1 5. GROSS NATIONAL DISPOSABLE INCOME ( 3+4 ) 5,770,222 6,181,580 6,526,391 6,984,556 31,294 33,899 36,203 98.6 98.6 98.0 98.0 98.4 98.4 6. Final consumption expenditure 4,381,447 4,666,049 4,931,809 5,220,816 23,134 24,602 26,087 74.4 74.5 73.3 72.5 71.4 70.9 Private consumption 3,242,319 3,438,530 3,636,387 3,848,237 17,034 18,078 19,159 54.8 54.9 54.0 53.4 52.5 52.1 Government consumption 1,139,128 1,227,519 1,295,422 1,372,579 6,100 6,524 6,928 19.6 19.6 19.3 19.1 18.9 18.8 7. GROSS SAVINGS ( 5-6 ) 1,388,776 1,515,531 1,594,581 1,763,740 8,160 9,297 10,116 24.2 24.1 24.8 25.6 27.0 27.5 8. GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION 1,436,604 1,680,755 1,724,428 1,956,119 8,788 9,569 10,180 26.8 26.0 27.5 27.5 27.8 27.7 9. SURPLUS ON THE CURRENT ACCOUNT WITH THE ROW (7-8) -47,829 -165,224 -129,846 -192,379 -629 -273 -64 -2.6 -2.0 -2.7 -2.0 -0.8 -0.2 Source of data: SORS 2003-2006, BS; IMAD's calculations and Spring Forecast 2007. Note: a comparison of nominal values is possible under the technical assumption of the SIT/EUR exchange rate = 239.64, which has been used since 2007. EXPENDITURE STRUCTURE OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, 2000-2006 constant previous year prices In SIT m In EUR m Real growth rates, in % GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (3+4+5) 5,497,364 6,070,840 6,524,427 6,864,000 29,988 31,309 32,607 4.4 4.0 5.2 4.7 4.4 4.1 1. Exports of goods and services 3,155,890 3,651,048 4,157,224 4,570,904 20,924 22,839 24,849 12.5 10.5 10.0 9.7 9.2 8.8 2. Imports of goods and services 3,186,667 3,685,560 4,106,912 4,534,031 20,566 22,345 24,110 13.4 7.0 10.4 8.7 8.6 7.9 3. EXTERNAL BALANCE * (1-2) -30,777 -34,512 50,312 36,873 358 494 738 -0,5* 2,0* -0,3* 0,7* 0,5* 0,8* 4. FINAL CONSUMPTION 4,150,646 4,505,482 4,811,325 4,975,387 21,509 22,233 22,923 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.4 3.1 Private consumption 3,075,724 3,327,207 3,556,451 3,673,077 15,906 16,468 17,025 2.6 3.4 3.3 3.8 3.5 3.4 Government consumption (individual and collective) 1,074,922 1,178,275 1,254,875 1,302,309 5,603 5,765 5,898 3.4 2.2 3.8 3.1 2.9 2.3 5. GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION 1,377,495 1,599,870 1,662,790 1,851,740 8,121 8,582 8,946 11.4 -1.1 11.4 5.1 5.7 4.2 Gross fixed capital investment 1,296,953 1,459,991 1,559,267 1,744,180 7,708 8,213 8,575 7.9 1.5 11.9 5.9 6.6 4.4 Changes in inventories and valuables* 80,542 139,879 103,523 107,560 414 369 371 1,0* -0,6* 0,1* -0,1* -0,1* 0,0* Source of data: Nominal: SORS 2003-2005, BS; IMAD's calculations and Spring Forecast 2007. Real growth rates: SORS 2003-2006, BS; IMAD's calculations and Spring Forecast 2007. Note: a comparison of nominal values is possible under the technical assumption of the SIT/EUR exchange rate = 239.64, which has been used since 2007. *as contributions to real GDP growth (in percentage points). Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD Industrial Production No. 6/2007 p. A 4 2006 2007 2006 2007 2002 2003 2004 2000 2006 QI QII QIII QIV QI 3 4 0 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION by sectors *, indices, 2000=100; January 2007 data are provisional INDUSTRY, total 105.4 106.9 112.8 116.5 123.7 117.8 124.1 122.1 130.7 128.6 127.6 113.5 130.1 128.7 124.8 108.4 133.1 134.7 139.8 117.7 125.0 121.4 139.4 128.4 C Mining and quarrying 99.2 104.9 97.6 104.2 114.9 103.8 115.2 106.4 134.3 115.2 103.6 108.8 124.8 112.0 98.1 102.2 119.0 135.2 152.6 115.1 95.7 109.4 140.4 135.7 D Manufacturing 104.8 106.5 111.6 115.6 123.2 116.6 124.1 122.6 129.5 128.7 127.4 112.8 130.4 129.2 125.6 108.0 134.1 134.5 139.0 114.9 124.4 121.6 140.2 129.1 DA Food, beverages, tobacco 98.6 99.6 89.4 88.0 86.7 76.8 88.4 87.4 94.4 78.4 82.8 82.0 89.4 93.7 87.1 86.3 88.7 87.8 103.4 91.9 74.9 75.0 85.3 88.3 DB Textiles & textile products 80.5 71.3 61.7 54.1 52 57.4 49.4 54.0 47.3 56.5 57.8 44.4 49.5 54.2 59.8 44.0 58.2 51.2 49.9 40.9 54.9 52.3 62.2 51.8 DC Leather & leather products 83.6 72.7 68.2 72.7 76.5 78.3 77.8 72.1 77.7 72.8 86.6 66.5 85.8 81.2 67.0 66.5 82.9 90.3 91.1 51.6 86.0 61.0 71.5 52.6 DD Wood & wood products 94.3 91.0 94.7 100.7 104.1 93.7 109.7 104.5 108.4 111.9 107.4 99.9 116.7 112.6 109.8 88.4 115.2 114.7 119.6 91.0 97.3 111.0 127.3 120.0 DE Paper, publishing, printing 1 100.9 100.6 101.2 104.8 103.8 100.6 103.1 102.1 109.6 103.1 112.0 98.5 109.0 101.9 101.1 98.0 107.2 110.5 113.3 104.9 102.8 93.9 112.6 104.7 DF Coke, petrol. prod., nuclear fuel 2 34.2 36.3 - - - - - - 20.9 22.3 - - - - - 15.8 19.9 21.1 21.6 19.9 22.8 21.2 23.0 18.8 DG Chem., prod., man-made fibers 114.5 128.0 147.5 158.7 179.4 173.0 183.3 172.1 189.3 201.1 178.7 173.5 196.3 180.0 191.6 154.4 170.4 207.4 198.6 161.9 209.4 193.6 200.4 206.8 DH Rubber & plastic products 99.8 103.6 116.5 122.2 130 120.2 126.8 136.9 135.9 135.2 132.0 114.3 132.6 133.4 134.6 124.8 151.4 145.6 149.7 112.3 127.4 125.5 152.6 131.2 DI Non-metal mineral products 100.9 101.6 84.6 78.7 83.6 66.7 88.0 90.7 89.2 78.3 79.2 75.6 90.6 97.8 91.7 85.3 95.0 96.4 98.0 73.1 71.6 72.5 90.7 85.2 DJ Basic metals & fabricated. prod. 108.3 112.0 107.8 116.3 130.3 121.1 130.9 131.7 137.4 142.3 132.7 118.4 138.0 136.3 133.2 120.0 141.9 148.9 147.1 116.2 140.2 134.3 152.5 138.4 DK Machinery & equipment nec. 128.6 120.9 138.5 140.9 149.5 143.7 147.8 144.7 161.7 163.6 159.3 135.9 151.3 156.2 153.6 121.2 159.4 162.4 173.4 149.2 154.0 154.2 182.5 161.1 DL Electrical & optical equipment 110.3 122.8 153.0 157.7 182.4 168.0 182.9 183.9 194.6 187.5 181.3 152.5 198.1 198.2 172.6 152.8 226.3 194.6 211.1 178.2 173.8 176.2 212.4 186.9 DM Transport equipment 106.4 111.7 152.7 184.7 177.4 200.1 185.5 149.5 174.4 194.7 230.1 182.0 186.9 187.6 176.4 75.6 196.5 176.1 180.7 166.4 179.2 184.8 220.1 184.6 DN Manufacturing nec. 106.3 102.6 103.4 108.7 108.3 104.1 108.7 108.6 111.7 107.2 119.5 99.0 116.1 111.1 109.4 97.6 118.8 115.6 122.8 96.8 100.9 105.6 115.2 103.9 E Electricity, gas & water supply 3 115.3 111.3 132.9 130.9 129.6 137.6 122.3 117.7 140.9 126.4 137.2 121.6 122.1 123.3 121.2 113.1 118.7 130.7 137.5 154.6 142.4 117.5 119.3 108.3 NUMBER OF PERSONS IN PAID EMPLOYMENT IN INDUSTRY 4 Total, in 1000 259.9 255.1 251.7 247.3 243.3 242.8 243.0 243.0 244.7 244.6 242.6 242.4 242.9 243.6 242.9 242.7 243.3 244.6 245.4 244.0 244.1 244.8 245.0 245.2 C Mining & quarrying 5.1 4.8 4.4 4.2 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 D Manufacturing 243.1 238.9 236.1 231.8 227.9 227.5 227.5 227.5 229.2 229.4 227.3 227.0 227.5 228.0 227.4 227.2 227.8 229.1 229.9 228.7 228.9 229.6 229.7 230.0 E Electricity, gas & water supply 11.7 11.4 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.5 CONSTRUCTION 5, real indices of construction put in place, indices 2000=100 Construction 97.9 105.7 108.4 111.7 128.8 76.7 120.0 149.0 169.4 103.5 90.6 101.1 115.0 143.9 140.4 132.3 174.2 188.1 163.2 157.0 88.7 98.1 123.8 133.2 Buildings 104.2 104.9 114.6 126.4 144.2 100.3 131.4 165.3 179.6 121.5 114.8 119.0 117.8 157.3 152.7 156.1 187.1 191.9 169.9 177.0 107.2 115.3 141.9 144.1 Civil engineering 92.1 106.4 102.6 98.0 114.5 54.8 109.5 133.8 160.0 91.7 68.1 84.5 112.5 131.5 128.9 110.2 162.3 184.6 157.1 138.4 76.6 86.8 111.8 126.1 Persons in paid employment in construction 4 99.4 99.1 97.5 102.0 109.6 102.5 108.6 113.1 114.3 114.0 104.0 106.5 108.7 110.5 112.2 112.9 114.2 114.9 115.2 112.7 112.9 114.4 114.8 118.0 Source of data: SORS. Notes: *From February 2004 onwards the industrial production indices have been provisional. For the period up until January 2004 they are calculated according to data on produced quantities of industrial goods. From February 2004 onwards, data on production value have been taken as the basis for the calculation. The value of production is calculated according to the following formula: turnover in the month (x) + value of stocks in the month (x) - value of stocks in the month (x-1).1Enterprises with activity of publishing are excluded; 2data not published because of confidentiality; 3only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. In January 2005, the SORS adopted a new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARiMa model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labor Force Survey. Data for previous years dating back to January 2000 have also been calculated according to the new methodology. 5The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD Production No. 6/2007 p. A 5 2006 2007 2006 2007 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 QI QII QIII QIV QI 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 TRANSPORT Passenger-km in transport for hire or reward (1000) 1,143 1,065 980 848 850 21 1 236 180 223 208 73 82 81 50 46 85 79 77 66 70 62 76 69 Passenger-km in rail transport, in m 749 778 764 777 788 1 91 197 189 210 196 62 69 66 60 58 70 72 71 69 Passenger-km in air transport, in m 794 837 896 1,019 1,044 182 251 411 200 182 69 77 104 147 143 121 83 60 57 62 56 65 79 Tonne-km in rail transport, in m 3,078 3,274 3,466 3,402 3,373 799 815 817 942 918 267 287 261 289 259 269 31 5 321 306 Tonne-km in maritime transport, in m 28,578 28,361 37,047 52,513 49,155 13,498 11,545 12,618 11,494 10,813 3,494 3,552 4,498 4,709 3,955 3,954 4,381 2,846 4,267 4,477 2,949 3,387 4,884 Tonne-km in road transport, in m 6,609 7,040 9,007 11,033 12,112 2,901 3,413 2,778 3,020 2,972 - - - - - - - - - - - - - Urban passenger traffic, in m 103.9 98.4 100.2 97.2 94.0 27.3 24.3 14.6 27.7 26.3 8.6 8.1 7.6 4.0 3.7 6.9 9.1 9.4 9.2 8.7 8.5 9.1 8.3 Airport passengers traffic, in 000 866 922 1,047 1,228 1,339 236 334 488 282 251 90 112 132 169 171 148 116 88 79 82 78 91 108 Harbour freight transport, in 000 t 9,305 10,788 12,063 12,625 15,462 3,871 3,877 3,555 4,158 4,282 1,103 1,372 1,402 1,245 895 1,416 1,426 1,362 1,370 1,197 1,323 1,762 1,091 Transport of gas, million m3 1,007 1,098 1,097 1,136 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - TOURISM, overnight stays, in 000 Total 7,321 7,503 7,589 7,573 7,722 1,404 1,814 3,115 1,389 1,472 474 575 765 1,157 1,209 749 548 407 434 472 497 502 565 Domestic tourists 3,300 3,327 3,226 3,173 3,233 697 691 1,226 620 700 169 220 303 498 457 271 219 197 203 177 282 242 207 Foreign tourists 4,021 4,175 4,363 4,399 4,489 708 1,123 1,889 769 771 306 355 462 659 753 478 329 209 231 296 215 261 358 Health resorts 2,327 2,360 2,417 2,464 2,434 523 573 853 484 555 158 197 217 275 324 255 219 83 183 175 191 189 205 Seaside 2,052 2,010 2,002 1,949 1,871 201 493 961 216 203 139 139 215 367 346 248 118 31 67 47 62 94 139 AGRICULTURE, slaughter in slaughterhouses, in 000 tons Cattle 40.5 43.1 40.1 37.4 37.9 8.9 9.0 8.4 11.7 8.0 2.9 3.3 2.8 2.5 2.9 2.9 3.4 4.0 4.3 2.6 2.5 2.9 3 Pigs 37.1 37.3 34.6 31.7 33.6 8.3 9.1 7.9 8.4 8.2 2.8 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.6 3.1 2.7 2.5 2.9 2.9 Poultry 51.4 56.0 52.0 53.4 49.2 12.4 12.0 12.3 12.5 13.9 3.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 3.8 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.6 4.1 5.2 4.6 Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EURO m 101.6 103.3 102.4 103.7 106.7 21.7 25.6 26.1 33.4 101.3 8.1 8.9 8.6 7.9 8.9 9.3 9.6 10.5 13.3 32.2 31.1 37.9 37.5 FISHING, in 000 tons Catches in marine waters 1459.8 1087.5 815.9 1021.6 736.7 131.1 155.0 271.3 278.4 174.5 36.3 36.6 82.1 84.2 92.7 94.3 91.4 51.8 36.1 83.4 65.3 25.8 39.6 Source of data: SORS. Balance of Payments Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 6/2007 p. A 6 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2006 2007 2006 2007 QI QII QIII QIV QI 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, in EUR m Current account 247 -1 96 -720 -547 -756 -163 52 -214 -431 -175 -97 36 -30 46 -96 -71 -47 -23 -188 -221 -2 -135 -37 Trade balance 1 -265 -543 -1,009 -1,026 -1,121 -204 -117 -258 -542 -165 -1 19 18 -77 -59 -76 -115 -67 -93 -186 -263 -62 -58 -45 Exports 11,082 11,417 12,933 14,599 17,032 4,028 4,285 4,163 4,555 4,771 1,509 1,334 1,463 1,488 1,453 1,175 1,535 1,578 1,601 1,376 1,469 1,510 1,792 Imports 11,347 11,960 13,942 15,625 18,152 4,232 4,403 4,421 5,097 4,937 1,628 1,316 1,540 1,547 1,529 1,290 1,601 1,670 1,788 1,639 1,531 1,568 1,837 Services 620 540 688 856 885 207 254 213 211 197 76 69 94 90 29 95 89 1 03 46 61 108 37 53 Exports 2,440 2,465 2,783 3,210 3,538 729 864 1,040 906 782 263 257 292 315 340 386 314 309 291 306 293 223 266 Imports 1,820 1 ,925 2,095 2,354 2,653 522 610 826 695 585 1 87 187 197 226 311 291 224 206 244 244 186 186 213 Income -168 -219 -322 -283 -349 -77 -78 -92 -102 -140 -28 -35 -25 -18 -30 -29 -33 -35 -33 -34 -40 -50 -50 Receipts 490 510 530 641 737 157 192 188 200 162 54 57 63 72 62 62 64 63 62 75 55 52 56 Expenditure 657 728 852 924 1,086 234 270 280 302 303 82 92 88 90 92 91 97 98 95 109 94 102 106 Current transfers 60 26 -76 -94 -171 -89 -6 -77 2 -67 -26 -16 -23 33 -19 -22 -36 2 -15 15 -8 -63 5 Receipts 500 474 561 708 784 160 224 163 238 201 58 58 57 1 08 61 55 47 84 59 95 49 64 88 Expenditure 439 449 638 802 955 249 230 240 236 268 83 75 81 75 80 77 83 83 73 80 58 127 83 Capital and financial account 3 46 698 404 1,010 103 112 345 450 883 78 80 10 21 152 82 111 -1 33 75 508 152 371 360 Capital account -164 -1 65 -96 -114 -118 -8 -21 -32 -57 6 -6 8 -9 -19 -21 6 -17 -8 -9 -41 19 -4 -9 Financial account 167 211 794 518 1,128 111 132 377 508 877 84 73 19 40 174 75 128 -1 26 84 549 134 374 369 Direct investment 1,556 -1 51 224 -58 -287 -64 -60 5 -167 -108 40 6 -44 -22 31 -28 2 -45 -177 54 -93 -62 47 Domestic abroad -166 -421 -441 -503 -590 -108 -178 -109 -194 -282 1 -87 -18 -73 -8 -33 -68 -43 -159 8 -95 -136 -51 Foreign in Slovenia 1,722 270 665 445 303 45 118 114 27 174 39 93 -26 51 39 5 70 -2 -18 46 2 74 98 Portfolio investment -69 -223 -637 -1,618 -1,458 -257 -178 -351 -672 -627 -39 -28 -106 -45 -86 -271 6 -65 -183 -424 -905 -151 429 Financial derivatives 0 0 6 -10 -13 -2 -10 -3 2 2 0 0 -9 -1 -6 1 2 -3 2 4 5 -4 1 Other investment 565 849 945 2,393 1,605 526 85 43 950 1,556 -53 19 168 -1 02 -175 120 98 56 355 540 939 717 -99 Assets -538 -730 -1,308 -1,531 -1,899 -389 -881 -380 -249 -1,980 -271 -58 -600 -222 40 -22 -399 85 -23 -311 -471 -739 -770 Commercial credits -135 -1 16 -237 -195 -431 -288 -180 -76 114 -387 -1 28 -62 -57 -61 -35 76 -118 -92 -54 259 -29 -159 -199 Loans -174 -223 -281 -413 -713 -158 -179 -96 -280 -343 -98 -32 -60 -87 -46 30 -80 -50 -73 -157 -18 -75 -250 Currency and deposits -157 -323 -720 -835 -747 57 -522 -199 -83 -1,269 -45 36 -483 -74 121 -128 -192 227 104 -413 -489 -499 -281 Other assets -71 -68 -69 -88 -9 0 0 -9 0 19 0 -1 1 0 0 0 -9 0 0 -1 65 -6 -40 Liabilities 1,104 1 ,579 2,252 3,924 3,503 91 5 966 423 1,199 3,536 218 78 768 1 20 -215 141 497 -30 378 851 1,410 1,456 670 Commercial credits 95 59 214 236 448 -1 0 129 58 271 283 27 14 49 65 71 -61 48 1 24 111 37 -157 213 227 Loans 838 1 ,1 23 1,671 2,649 2,056 365 849 369 473 29 1 58 48 856 -55 -40 149 260 -53 300 225 154 -54 -71 Deposits 130 428 335 1,014 1,061 587 1 8 464 -139 25 -2 -114 116 -243 61 191 -96 -35 594 -435 295 2 Other liabilities 39 -31 33 25 -61 -27 -13 -12 -10 3,363 8 16 -23 -6 -2 -7 -2 -5 1 -5 1,847 1,002 513 International reserves 2 -1,885 -264 256 -189 1,281 -92 295 684 394 53 1 36 76 10 21 0 409 254 20 -68 86 376 187 -126 -8 Statistical error -250 1 50 22 144 -254 61 -164 -132 -19 -708 18 -117 20 -67 -57 -11 -64 1 56 113 -287 -150 -235 -323 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods 1,542 1 ,634 1,873 2,058 2,492 551 615 622 705 N/A 224 186 212 217 222 168 231 224 245 236 N/A N/A N/A Intermediate goods 5,245 5,463 6,342 6,990 8,429 1,992 2,139 2,094 2,203 N/A 744 656 736 750 720 604 770 772 810 621 N/A N/A N/A Consumer goods 4,175 4,188 4,568 5,349 5,840 1,432 1,453 1,366 1,589 N/A 523 470 482 501 485 367 515 560 532 497 N/A N/A N/A Import of investment goods 2,072 2,322 2,494 2,624 3,076 629 723 746 978 N/A 253 213 239 271 245 204 297 276 344 358 N/A N/A N/A Intermediate goods 6,816 7,079 8,348 9,534 11,064 2,632 2,713 2,738 2,981 N/A 1,012 796 950 966 972 800 966 1,010 1,072 900 N/A N/A N/A Consumer goods 2,686 2,838 3,301 3,646 4,172 992 1,011 986 1,183 N/A 383 310 352 349 320 289 376 399 409 375 N/A N/A N/A Sources of data: BS, SORS. Notes: Exports and imports (F.O.B.) include also the adjustment for exports and imports of goods by ITRS and duty-free shops reports; 2 reserve assets of the BS. Monetary Indicators Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 6/2007 p. A 7 2005 2006 2006 2007 December 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 MONETARY SYSTEM - CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, end of the month, in SIT bn Banknotes and coins 217.3 152.8 205.9 206.8 207.5 220.9 216.5 220.7 212.1 210.3 213.1 214.0 197.6 152.8 2,709 2,684 2,689 2,721 Overnight deposits at other MFI 1,491.0 1,694.1 1,475.5 1,482.4 1,513.3 1,535.3 1,571.7 1,598.7 1,595.6 1,594.9 1,605.7 1,590.4 1,612.5 1,694.1 6,902 6,866 6,867 6,887 Overnight deposits of NFI at the BS 3.1 5.0 3.5 2.8 5.7 6.5 4.9 3.6 3.6 5.7 4.8 6.0 4.5 5.0 47 37 36 37 Overnight deposits of other government sector (central government excluded) at the BS 3.3 1.3 2.2 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.1 1.8 2.2 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.3 6 7 5 5 Total overnight deposits at the BS 6.4 6.4 5.7 4.8 7.6 8.5 7.0 5.3 5.9 7.8 6.9 7.9 6.4 6.4 53 43 41 43 Deposits with agreed maturity at the BS 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - Deposits with agreed maturity at other MFI 1,688.0 1,747.3 1,728.4 1,742.3 1,730.3 1,661.7 1,682.0 1,678.2 1,710.8 1,692.2 1,735.0 1,720.9 1,744.1 1,747.3 7,379 7,441 7,607 7,514 Deposits at redeemable notice 164.9 197.5 138.2 140.6 163.6 172.0 168.7 179.8 166.0 170.8 182.7 184.6 187.9 197.5 962 91 8 985 991 Debt securities, units/shares of money market funds and repos 9.5 9.2 8.8 9.1 9.4 9.7 9.1 6.7 7.0 7.7 7.3 7.5 7.9 9.2 29 32 46 52 Banknotes and coins and demand deposits 1,713.9 1,853.3 1,687.0 1,694.1 1,728.4 1,764.8 1,795.3 1,824.8 1,813.5 1,812.9 1,825.7 1,812.3 1,816.5 1,853.3 9,664 9,593 9,597 9,650 Banknotes and coins and deposits with maturity of up to two years 3,524.6 3,798.1 3,553.9 3,577.4 3,622.9 3,598.9 3,646.6 3,683.3 3,690.7 3,675.9 3,743.4 3,717.7 3,748.5 3,798.1 18,005 17,952 18,189 18,156 Banknotes and coins and instruments with maturity of up to two years 3,534.2 3,807.2 3,562.7 3,586.5 3,632.3 3,608.5 3,655.7 3,690.0 3,697.7 3,683.6 3,750.7 3,725.2 3,756.4 3,807.2 18,035 17,984 18,235 18,208 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in SIT bn Claims of the BS on central government 17.6 16.6 17.3 17.3 17.1 16.9 16.9 16.9 16.9 16.8 16.9 16.8 16.8 16.6 69 69 69 68 Central government (S. 1311) 780.5 776.6 808.0 792.9 767.3 773.6 777.2 774.9 774.5 777.8 782.2 792.5 787.7 776.6 3,204 3,241 2,965 2,747 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 17.8 24.9 19.2 19.4 23.9 23.8 23.4 23.2 23.4 20.6 20.4 21.5 21.8 24.9 108 1 06 107 105 Households (S. 14, 15) 976.0 1,289.8 1,040.6 1,053.2 1,080.5 1,108.6 1,138.2 1,157.3 1,180.4 1,203.7 1,229.2 1,252.3 1,277.6 1,289.8 5,428 5,488 5,637 5,752 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 2,620.9 3,245.5 2,695.3 2,738.2 2,800.0 2,882.7 2,910.3 2,951.5 2,988.9 3,025.0 3,096.8 3,157.9 3,214.5 3,245.5 14,087 14,250 14,666 15,142 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 230.9 365.6 231.2 243.6 253.1 263.0 278.0 283.0 287.5 296.5 303.5 325.7 338.3 365.6 1,554 1,563 1,569 1,761 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 1,408.2 1,157.1 1,493.7 1,496.0 1,485.2 1,407.3 1,438.3 1,413.4 1,293.7 1,235.5 1,249.4 1,265.8 1,244.9 1,157.1 3,615 2,879 2,381 2,033 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 2,099.2 2,307.3 2,106.1 2,136.3 2,124.1 2,132.1 2,114.1 2,149.9 2,121.8 2,136.1 2,152.6 2,200.9 2,223.5 2,307.3 21,870 21,743 21,845 22,301 In foreign currency 2,199.4 3,109.6 2,286.2 2,352.9 2,455.8 2,539.0 2,618.8 2,716.2 2,748.5 2,814.9 2,894.6 2,992.1 3,048.8 3,109.6 1,048 1,100 1,160 1,248 Securities, total 1,791.0 1,442.6 1,895.7 1,853.9 1,830.1 1,787.9 1,832.5 1,737.3 1,678.1 1,608.1 1,634.4 1,622.8 1,612.5 1,442.6 5,076 4,684 4,321 3,991 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in SIT bn Deposits in domestic currency, total 2,608.5 2,904.1 2,692.7 2,651.4 2,651.7 2,685.9 2,704.6 2,749.2 2,751.9 2,773.1 2,846.7 2,885.5 2,893.7 2,904.1 17,823 17,912 17,914 18,066 Overnight 987.0 1,178.1 962.5 950.4 991.4 1,003.6 1,032.6 1,073.0 1,056.9 1,057.6 1,067.4 1,052.8 1,079.0 1,178.1 6,645 6,598 6,648 6,676 With agreed maturity - short-term 1,175.5 1,252.9 1,295.1 1,264.0 1,222.8 1,229.3 1,233.5 1,225.4 1,257.0 1,270.0 1,323.3 1,361.3 1,353.8 1,252.9 7,673 7,837 7,639 7,758 With agreed maturity - long-term 309.9 291.9 312.7 313.2 295.1 295.7 286.4 285.2 282.7 285.8 286.9 305.0 287.5 291.9 2,486 2,492 2,560 2,569 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 136.0 181.2 122.3 123.9 142.3 157.2 152.1 165.6 155.3 159.8 169.1 166.3 173.3 181.2 1,019 985 1,067 1,063 Deposits in foreign currency, total 1,349.9 1,454.0 1,344.7 1,372.8 1,403.8 1,367.3 1,417.4 1,432.4 1,424.9 1,420.9 1,433.9 1,425.8 1,448.4 1,454.0 634 614 607 597 Overnight 395.6 552.7 542.5 550.7 546.3 546.0 559.0 556.9 559.1 565.0 562.8 564.7 576.3 552.7 311 293 285 264 With agreed maturity - short-term 623.7 544.7 474.9 491.5 516.0 480.9 514.1 533.6 521.4 506.3 517.6 510.0 519.0 544.7 240 239 237 251 With agreed maturity - long-term 295.2 318.5 295.7 297.9 300.5 302.8 310.9 307.8 311.1 316.1 319.2 313.8 317.5 318.5 64 64 62 60 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 35.4 38.0 31.6 32.7 41.0 37.6 33.4 34.1 33.3 33.6 34.3 37.3 35.7 38.0 19 18 23 22 Source of data: Bank of Slovenia. Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD Prices No. 6/2007 p. A 8 Indices, 2005 = 100 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2006 2007 2006 2007 QI QII QIII QIV QI 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 GROWTH IN SELECTED PRICE INDICATORS CPI 89.2 94.2 97.6 100.0 102.5 100.8 102.8 103.2 103.2 103.1 103.2 102.9 102.6 103.3 103.6 102.8 103.1 103.6 102.9 102.7 103.8 104.9 106.1 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 95.9 100.3 100.8 100.0 102.3 101.6 102.0 102.3 103.1 105.3 102.8 102.1 101.7 102.6 102.7 101.9 103.4 104.0 105.7 104.7 105.5 107.5 109.3 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 80.8 91.0 96.3 100.0 103.7 101.5 101.9 105.2 106.2 107.1 101.8 102.1 105.3 105.1 105.2 106.3 106.1 106.2 106.9 107.0 107.4 107.6 108.1 Clothing and footwear 93.5 99.3 101.0 100.0 99.5 93.7 104.8 94.0 105.5 95.4 105.7 104.5 92.5 90.5 99.2 104.9 106.2 105.5 92.9 93.3 100.1 103.4 106.8 Housing, water, electricity, gas 80.2 85.4 91.7 100.0 105.3 104.4 106.1 107.0 103.8 104.2 106.6 105.9 106.5 106.8 107.6 103.3 103.8 104.2 103.6 103.9 105.1 106.7 107.0 Furnishings, household equip. 90.1 94.3 96.5 100.0 104.1 101.9 102.9 105.2 106.2 107.0 102.8 102.9 104.1 105.6 106.0 106.1 106.1 106.4 106.9 106.7 107.5 108.0 108.2 Medical, pharmaceutical products 93.4 98.8 100.3 100.0 98.3 98.4 98.5 98.0 98.3 99.9 98.6 98.3 98.0 98.1 97.9 98.0 98.2 98.7 99.2 99.7 100.8 100.0 99.7 Transport 88.0 92.1 97.4 100.0 101.3 99.9 101.8 103.0 100.3 99.7 102.6 101.7 102.0 103.8 103.0 100.3 100.1 100.6 99.8 99.3 100.1 101.6 102.9 Communications 98.5 99.8 100.0 100.0 100.3 100.0 99.2 100.4 101.5 100.0 99.5 98.5 99.4 99.6 102.2 102.2 101.1 101.1 101.5 99.3 99.2 99.3 99.7 Recreation and culture 89.8 94.2 97.7 100.0 102.1 100.0 101.7 105.8 101.1 102.5 101.4 103.1 106.3 107.8 103.3 100.6 100.9 101.8 102.3 102.9 102.3 102.0 104.4 Education 83.5 87.1 93.4 100.0 103.1 102.0 104.1 103.5 102.9 103.1 104.1 104.1 104.1 104.1 102.1 102.9 102.9 102.9 103.0 103.1 103.0 103.0 105.6 Catering services 84.9 91.1 95.8 100.0 104.5 102.2 104.0 105.4 106.3 109.2 104.0 104.4 104.9 105.3 105.8 106.0 105.5 107.4 108.9 109.3 109.6 110.3 111.0 Miscellaneous goods & services 88.8 94.5 98.1 100.0 104.1 102.1 103.9 104.4 105.9 106.4 104.0 104.0 104.4 104.2 104.6 105.7 105.8 106.1 106.2 106.5 106.7 106.7 107.2 HCPI 89.1 94.2 97.6 100.0 102.5 100.8 102.8 103.2 103.3 103.4 103.3 103.0 102.7 103.4 103.7 102.9 103.2 103.7 103.1 103.0 104.1 105.3 106.5 Producer price indices (domestic market) 91.0 93.3 97.4 100.0 102.4 101.3 102.2 102.6 103.3 105.9 102.2 102.4 102.6 102.3 102.9 103.1 103.1 103.6 104.3 106.5 106.8 107.1 107.4 Intermediate goods 89.6 91.4 96.9 100.0 103.5 101.9 103.3 104.1 104.7 109.1 103.3 103.7 104.0 103.7 104.7 104.4 104.5 105.3 106.1 110.4 110.8 111.3 111.8 Capital goods 94.8 94.7 97.0 100.0 100.2 99.8 99.6 100.5 100.8 101.2 99.3 100.0 100.1 100.4 100.9 100.9 100.7 100.9 101.4 101.0 101.4 101.4 101.0 Consumption goods 91.8 95.3 98.1 100.0 101.5 101.0 101.6 101.2 102.1 103.1 101.6 101.6 101.4 101.1 101.2 102.1 101.9 102.3 102.8 103.0 103.4 103.2 103.5 PRICE CONTROL1 Energy prices 81.1 83.3 89.4 100.0 108.0 104.7 109.6 111.9 105.9 102.6 111.4 109.7 110.4 112.7 112.6 106.2 105.5 105.9 103.6 100.4 103.7 107.5 110.3 Oil products 78.9 80.2 86.7 100.0 110.3 105.6 113.4 116.3 105.7 101.4 116.1 113.8 114.5 117.5 117.0 106.5 105.1 105.6 102.9 98.4 103.0 107.5 112.3 Electricity for households 90.4 93.8 98.6 100.0 101.6 100.8 100.8 102.0 102.7 101.7 100.8 100.8 100.8 102.7 102.7 102.7 102.7 102.7 101.9 101.0 102.4 107.1 107.1 Basic utilities 83.4 88.6 96.2 100.0 97.4 100.1 100.9 100.9 87.8 93.8 100.7 100.7 100.7 100.9 100.9 83.3 89.3 90.7 92.5 94.4 94.4 94.7 94.7 Transport & communications 91.5 95.2 97.9 100.0 101.5 101.2 101.6 101.6 101.6 101.9 101.6 101.6 101.6 101.6 101.6 101.6 101.6 101.6 101.7 101.8 102.2 102.2 102.2 Other controlled prices 86.0 89.8 95.7 100.0 102.6 101.8 102.2 103.2 103.3 104.9 102.2 102.3 103.2 103.2 103.2 103.2 103.3 103.3 104.2 105.1 105.3 105.3 104.7 Direct control - total 82.5 85.5 91.5 100.0 107.0 103.7 107.3 110.2 106.9 105.6 108.5 107.4 107.9 109.5 113.3 106.5 106.9 107.3 106.0 104.1 106.6 109.4 111.3 Source of data: SORS, calculations and estimates IMAD. Note: 1 the structure of groups varies, data published are not directly comparable to those published previously. Interest Rates and Investment Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 6/2007 p. A 9 End year 2006 2007 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 3 4 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits - - - 0.47 0.32 0.36 0.34 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.28 0.27 0.28 0.27 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.34 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year - - - 3.34 2.96 3.02 3.03 2.99 2.98 2.86 2.81 2.82 2.80 2.81 2.84 2.83 2.91 3.01 3.07 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans 1-5 year fixed interest rate - - 4.18 4.99 4.56 4.68 4.80 4.51 4.26 4.74 4.57 4.60 4.42 5.19 4.29 5.16 5.44 5.5 5.35 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million 1-5 year fixed interest rate - 8.58 5.36 5.23 4.64 5.12 4.98 4.43 - 4.66 4.47 3.61 4.66 5.04 5.11 5.49 6.53 - - INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operations | 3.21 2.25 2.00 2.02 2.78 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.75 2.75 3.00 3.00 3.25 3.25 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.75 3.75 INVESTMENT, outlays, in SIT m, since 2007 thousand EURO Total 524,626 610,923 760,662 772,675 824,957 63,277 52,510 56,768 62,748 55,592 56,808 62,610 58,911 86,544 147,057 283,943 287,486 252,076 387,674 Industry total 114,794 136,349 184,271 181,466 164,226 12,392 10,174 11,172 13,613 12,797 9,218 11,634 12,008 16,069 22,452 54,811 66,902 68,461 62,123 Energy sector 36,959 31,538 39,105 38,701 36,856 2,340 1,405 2,119 1,934 2,995 2,119 3,460 2,294 4,832 7,335 11,771 26,320 12,892 9,072 Manufacturing 77,835 104,811 145,163 142,765 127,370 10,052 8,769 9,053 11,679 9,802 7,099 8,174 9,714 11,237 15,117 43,040 40,582 55,568 53,051 Construction* 8,937 11,350 21,470 129,609 170,369 10,808 7,472 11,717 11,122 11,561 15,119 14,507 13,065 14,565 43,112 97,608 68,472 -120,858 13,463 Transport and communications* 58,244 39,779 54,720 63,689 57,978 4,692 3,855 4,716 4,085 3,935 5,076 7,245 3,401 9,931 4,165 11,029 32,975 194,924 142,273 Trade 66,950 67,852 80,272 93,793 82,460 7,889 4,879 4,880 11,155 5,304 6,325 4,527 6,229 4,926 6,846 16,599 12,242 25,851 34,770 Hotels and restaurants 9,144 14,665 14,206 15,641 12,356 1,705 840 889 962 1,298 1,319 816 439 722 1,483 7,841 5,197 7,092 5,981 Financial and technical services 40,339 48,049 52,291 48,192 47,530 3,284 4,210 4,957 4,109 5,117 4,199 2,560 3,805 4,297 4,655 11,926 22,401 9,369 14,409 Other 226,220 292,876 353,432 240,285 290,038 22,507 21,080 18,437 17,702 15,580 15,552 21,321 19,964 36,034 64,344 84,129 79,297 67,236 114,655 In economic infrastructure, total1 162,078 177,777 223,096 180,751 197,802 11,724 7,283 13,947 12,868 13,319 16,649 16,725 13,348 19,366 49,344 89,490 105,197 64,170 57,115 Energy sector 36,959 46,562 46,469 42,212 36,857 2,340 1,405 2,119 1,934 2,995 2,119 3,460 2,294 4,832 7,335 11,771 26,320 12,892 9,072 Electricity supply 25,132 26,903 23,107 24,251 22,736 1,394 941 1,381 1,261 1,963 1,200 2,516 1,304 3,331 3,946 6,664 21,210 7,479 5,503 Gas supply 1,380 1,282 689 678 729 51 41 30 51 56 80 58 26 111 117 229 242 335 107 Hot water supply 1,168 2,725 2,027 2,564 2,640 211 41 140 90 240 125 216 240 346 714 1,540 898 640 350 Cold water supply 9,280 15,652 20,645 14,720 10,752 685 381 569 532 737 714 670 724 1,044 2,558 3,337 3,970 4,439 3,112 Transport infrastructure 125,119 131,215 176,627 138,539 160,945 9,384 5,878 11,828 10,934 10,324 14,530 13,265 11,054 14,534 42,009 77,719 78,876 51,278 48,043 Railways 16,924 1,717 1,822 2,615 6,677 586 608 571 372 558 1,487 1,653 77 493 70 590 1,360 897 727 Air traffic 618 1,774 2,660 3,462 2,120 73 10 207 101 49 469 96 123 139 502 1,508 2,028 1,515 2,064 Roads, motorways 81,467 103,849 141,157 106,040 136,142 5,968 3,760 9,044 8,994 9,224 11,516 11,064 10,310 13,150 40,435 72,863 62,228 46,038 41,167 Postal and telecom services 24,573 20,923 26,717 24,143 13,609 2,563 1,330 1,749 1,308 292 770 372 432 399 613 1,717 1,402 1,780 2,196 Other 1,538 2,952 4,271 2,279 2,397 195 171 257 157 201 287 80 112 354 389 1,041 11,858 1,048 1,889 Sources of data: SORS, BS, AP. Notes: a large infrastructure company has been included in the construction activity since April 2007 (change of main activity from F to I). *Outlays collected on the basis of data for individual investors. Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD Labour Market No. 6/2007 p. A 10 Number in thousand 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2006 2007 2006 2007 Q I Q II Q III Q IV Q I 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 A FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 911.4 899.1 900.3 905.0 910.7 908.2 910.9 909.6 914.0 919.1 909.9 910.7 912.3 910.8 908.2 909.8 915.0 915.5 911.3 918.0 919.2 920.0 921.6 B PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (C+D) 808.7 801.4 807.5 813.1 824.8 814.6 823.6 826.6 834.5 841.8 819.9 823.6 827.4 825.2 825.2 829.5 833.7 836.7 833.0 838.0 841.5 845.8 849.0 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 45.4 37.7 41.2 38.7 38.9 39.5 39.1 38.7 38.5 43.1 39.2 39.1 39.0 38.8 38.7 38.7 38.6 38.6 38.4 43.0 43.1 43.1 41.9 In industry, construction 323.3 318.4 313.9 310.9 313.3 308.2 312.2 315.1 317.6 317.4 310.3 312.3 314.1 314.5 314.7 316.2 317.9 318.9 315.9 316.2 317.8 318.3 320.5 Of which: in manufacturing 243.1 238.9 236.1 233.7 227.9 227.5 227.5 227.5 229.2 229.4 227.0 227.5 228.0 227.4 227.2 227.8 229.1 229.9 228.7 228.9 229.6 229.7 230.0 In construction 63.4 63.3 62.2 61.7 69.9 65.4 69.3 72.2 72.9 72.8 67.9 69.4 70.5 71.6 72.0 72.8 73.3 73.5 71.9 72.1 73.0 73.3 75.3 In services 440.0 445.2 452.3 463.5 472.6 467.0 472.3 472.8 478.4 481.3 470.3 472.2 474.3 471.9 471.8 474.7 477.2 479.2 478.7 478.8 480.7 484.4 486.6 Of which: in public administration 45.9 47.7 49.9 49.1 50.2 49.8 50.4 50.3 50.1 49.7 50.3 50.4 50.6 50.5 50.3 50.2 50.3 50.2 49.9 49.8 49.7 49.7 49.9 in education, health-services social work 101.6 102.7 105.0 106.5 109.1 108.5 109.3 108.6 110.0 109.9 108.9 109.3 109.7 108.2 108.0 109.5 109.9 110.2 109.8 109.5 109.9 110.2 110.4 C FORMALLY EMPLOYED 1 721.4 722.1 724.4 731.6 741.6 731.7 740.6 743.4 750.7 753.1 737.0 740.5 744.2 742.1 742.0 746.1 750.1 752.9 749.2 749.5 752.9 757.0 761.3 In enterprises and organisations 654.6 656.0 658.7 666.2 675.1 667.6 674.2 675.9 682.6 685.8 671.5 674.2 676.9 674.7 674.7 678.2 681.6 684.3 681.7 682.8 685.6 689.0 692.4 In small scale sector 66.8 66.2 65.6 65.4 66.5 64.0 66.4 67.5 68.2 67.3 65.5 66.4 67.3 67.3 67.3 67.9 68.5 68.6 67.5 66.7 67.3 68.0 68.9 D SELF EMPLOYED AND FARMERS 87.3 79.2 83.1 81.5 83.3 83.0 83.1 83.2 83.7 88.7 82.9 83.0 83.2 83.1 83.2 83.5 83.6 83.8 83.8 88.5 88.6 88.8 87.8 E REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT 102.6 97.7 92.8 91.9 85.8 93.6 87.3 83.0 79.5 77.3 90.0 87.1 84.9 85.6 83.1 80.2 81.3 78.8 78.3 80.0 77.7 74.2 72.6 Female 52.5 51.6 49.3 49.4 47.0 50.3 47.9 46.3 43.6 42.0 49.1 47.7 46.8 47.9 46.4 44.6 44.9 43.3 42.6 43.2 42.1 40.7 40.2 By age: under 26 24.7 25.5 24.3 22.2 18.2 21.7 18.9 16.4 16.0 14.0 20.0 18.8 17.8 17.8 16.6 14.8 16.8 15.8 15.2 15.1 14.2 12.8 12.2 Older than 40 50.7 43.1 39.7 40.1 39.7 41.7 40.1 39.3 37.9 38.7 40.9 40.1 39.4 39.6 39.3 38.9 38.2 37.6 37.7 39.0 38.8 38.1 37.7 Unskilled 48.2 43.2 38.6 37.5 33.7 37.4 34.3 32.2 30.8 30.4 35.5 34.3 33.2 32.8 32.3 31.6 31.1 30.6 30.8 31.6 30.7 29.0 28.2 For more than 1 year 55.8 47.5 42.9 43.4 41.9 43.6 42.4 41.5 40.2 38.8 43.0 42.3 41.9 41.9 41.3 41.2 41.0 39.9 39.7 39.6 39.0 37.9 37.4 Those receiving benefits 24.4 24.3 22.3 23.3 22.7 25.4 23.6 22.4 19.4 13.0 23.7 24.2 22.8 22.9 22.7 21.7 19.9 19.4 18.9 19.9 19.1 18.3 17.2 F RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 11.3 10.9 10.3 10.2 9.4 10.3 9.6 9.1 8.7 8.4 9.9 9.6 9.3 9.4 9.1 8.8 8.9 8.6 8.6 8.7 8.4 8.1 7.9 G FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE -2.3 -10.2 1.5 8.0 5.2 2.6 3.6 -2.5 1.6 8.7 1.2 0.8 1.6 -1.5 -2.5 1.5 5.3 0.5 -4.2 6.7 1.2 0.8 1.6 New unemployed first job seekers 21.4 25.4 26.0 21.7 18.6 3.7 3.2 3.5 8.2 2.9 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 5.8 1.4 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.9 1 Redundancies 66.0 68.8 69.6 67.2 63.8 19.4 14.4 15.2 14.8 15.4 4.9 5.1 4.4 5.6 4.5 5.1 4.8 5.0 5.0 7.6 3.8 4 4 Registered unemployed who found employment 52.2 50.5 54.3 53.9 57.4 15.6 14.7 13.5 13.6 14.8 4.9 5.5 4.3 3.5 4.6 5.3 5.1 5.0 3.5 5.1 4.4 5.2 4.2 Other unemployed erased out of register 39.9 47.3 46.6 33.1 39.2 8.7 9.4 9.8 11.3 7.6 2.6 3.5 3.3 2.4 3.4 4.1 4.4 3.9 3.1 2.0 2.5 3.1 2.4 Change in number of work permits for foreigners 2.1 3.5 -0.5 3.9 7.8 2.7 3.3 1.6 0.3 3.9 1.6 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.8 2.2 2.5 -1.7 Retirements 2 15.9 16.1 16.4 16.7 18.7 4.3 3.9 4.5 6.1 4.7 1.3 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.0 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.4 Deaths 2 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Others who found employment 2 30.4 24.9 39.5 32.6 37.3 8.9 10.0 6.3 9.8 13.8 2.2 3.3 4.5 0.4 -0.2 6.0 5.4 4.5 -0.2 9.9 2.2 1.6 5.9 H JOB VACANCIES 3 11.6 12.1 14.1 16.9 19.0 19.1 20.5 18.9 17.4 20.5 18.4 20.3 22.7 17.7 16.4 22.7 19.5 16.9 15.9 20.0 17.8 23.6 20.6 For fixed term, in % 74.4 73.8 73.7 75.6 75.3 71.6 74.9 77.6 77.5 76.7 75.4 73.7 75.5 75.5 78.5 78.7 77.9 78.0 76.4 77.1 75.1 77.5 76.9 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 35.3 39.7 39.7 41.6 48.3 44.2 48.1 50.0 50.9 53.4 47.2 48.1 48.9 49.4 50.2 50.5 50.9 51.0 50.7 52.2 53.4 54.7 58.3 As % of labour force (I/A) 3.9 4.4 4.4 4.6 5.3 4.9 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.3 Sources of data: SORS, PDII, ESS. Notes: nin January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. Data for previous years dating back to January 2000 have also been calculated according to the new methodology. 2Estimated by IMAD, based on data by PDII and ESS; 3According to ESS. Wages, Competitiveness, Exchange Rate Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 6/2007 p. A 11 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 Qii Qiii Qiv Qi 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, in SIT, since 2007 in EUR Total 264,403 277,279 290,635 283,981 286,917 309,709 1,238 279,896 286,316 285,731 283,047 290,148 287,557 293,121 333,799 302,207 1,250 1,213 1,252 1,237 Agriculture, fishing 215,981 224,253 236,822 229,953 234,180 255,337 1,010 224,718 233,088 232,053 227,255 236,221 239,065 246,013 275,462 244,538 1,030 978 1,021 1,026 A Agriculture 216,252 224,225 236,681 230,000 234,330 255,564 1,010 224,525 233,168 232,308 227,341 236,385 239,263 246,477 275,255 244,960 1,030 978 1,023 1,025 B Fishing 205,207 218,670 236,027 228,451 228,286 245,222 970 233,254 229,976 222,124 223,864 229,792 231,201 225,990 283,455 226,221 1,007 984 919 1,070 Industry, construction 229,615 243,067 256,362 249,392 252,418 275,098 1,096 242,758 252,268 253,148 247,126 258,208 251,919 259,650 302,333 263,312 1,120 1,059 1,110 1,081 C Mining and quarrying 324,410 344,670 360,110 355,425 347,764 390,549 1,504 345,081 361,792 359,403 341,267 357,349 344,675 356,344 465,162 350,142 1,516 1,488 1,508 1,487 D Manufacturing 225,806 238,985 252,162 245,578 248,069 269,029 1,086 239,263 247,879 249,593 243,298 253,828 247,080 255,616 293,054 258,417 1,113 1,046 1,099 1,069 E Electricity, gas & water supply 322,478 353,836 373,743 350,785 355,321 439,645 1,494 341,094 360,776 350,485 347,759 364,848 353,355 364,284 550,174 404,477 1,539 1,442 1,501 1,483 F Construction 214,536 224,794 238,698 232,640 239,102 253,871 1,017 225,300 236,219 236,402 231,933 243,748 241,624 245,043 271,568 245,003 1,018 996 1,038 1,011 Production services 242,355 253,747 266,326 260,251 261,841 286,264 1,150 257,312 262,884 260,558 258,907 263,514 263,104 269,263 309,080 280,448 1,151 1,128 1,171 1,153 G Distributive trade 233,682 244,880 258,521 252,136 254,723 278,198 1,122 249,304 254,451 252,654 252,603 255,915 255,650 263,133 294,774 276,686 1,127 1,097 1,143 1,130 H Hotels & restaurants 196,458 202,895 211,873 209,789 210,678 221,166 893 207,644 212,160 209,563 207,008 213,505 211,520 213,344 225,866 224,287 898 873 906 905 I Transport, storage & communications 284,881 299,377 310,080 302,935 302,254 334,933 1,333 299,354 306,447 303,005 297,889 304,311 304,562 309,630 379,872 315,296 1,324 1,317 1,359 1,316 Business services 312,967 325,355 340,552 332,172 328,901 375,481 1,437 330,016 335,420 331,080 323,043 332,310 331,351 332,557 428,155 365,729 1,448 1,412 1,450 1,452 J Financial intermediation 388,044 413,896 443,595 431,824 415,908 523,782 1,812 426,939 440,529 428,004 404,927 414,649 428,147 415,140 668,928 487,279 1,797 1,810 1,830 1,897 K Real estate 283,421 292,763 304,295 296,412 298,125 324,256 1,307 294,896 297,842 296,499 293,992 303,078 297,304 303,947 345,433 323,388 1,326 1,274 1,321 1,300 Public services 319,911 330,580 341,999 336,529 343,246 353,578 1,445 334,641 337,356 337,588 341,724 343,977 344,037 347,973 360,551 352,211 1,449 1,433 1,452 1,454 L Public administration 322,928 333,302 343,572 338,545 346,124 351,537 1,446 335,054 339,019 341,562 344,886 345,285 348,201 351,350 353,047 350,213 1,450 1,442 1,445 1,452 M Education 325,463 340,967 357,301 350,291 362,784 368,215 1,521 348,245 349,298 353,330 360,988 363,395 363,969 365,467 370,135 369,042 1,516 1,518 1,530 1,533 N Health & social work 310,990 316,827 325,245 322,107 323,843 336,103 1,367 321,717 324,668 319,936 323,527 325,081 322,920 329,682 341,294 337,332 1,387 1,344 1,369 1,386 O Other social & personal services 316,566 325,159 332,137 324,515 324,566 356,170 1,402 323,475 327,509 322,560 320,629 328,908 324,162 330,619 395,357 342,534 1,395 1,368 1,441 1,389 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS, 2001=100 Foreign exchange rates Effective exchange rate1, nominal 94.6 94.0 94.1 94.1 94.4 94.3 94.4 94.0 94.1 94.3 94.4 94.3 94.4 94.2 94.2 94.4 94.3 94.5 94.5 94.7 Real (relative consumer prices) 105.2 104.9 105.6 105.8 106.2 106.0 105.6 105.4 106.2 105.9 105.7 106.1 106.7 105.7 106.0 106.3 105.6 105.3 106 106.9 Real (relative producer prices)2 103.1 102.5 101.6 101.3 101.2 102.5 103.4 101.3 101.2 101.3 101.1 100.7 101.9 102.3 102.3 102.9 103.4 103.5 103.4 103.1 SIT/US$ 192.4 192.7 191.0 190.9 188.0 185.9 - 195.9 187.6 189.2 188.9 187.1 188.1 190.0 186.2 181.4 - - - - SIT/EUR 238.9 239.6 239.6 239.6 239.6 239.6 - 239.6 239.6 239.6 239.6 239.6 239.6 239.6 239.6 239.6 - - - - US$/EUR 1 .2433 1.2448 1.2557 1.2564 1 .2741 1.2902 1.3105 1.2271 1 .2770 1.2650 1.2684 1.2811 1.2727 1.2611 1.2881 1.3213 1.2999 1.3074 1.3242 1.3516 Sources of data: SORS, AP, BS, OECD Main Economic Indicators, calculations IMAD. Notes: The September 2005 data on the monthly gross wage per employee were calculated according to the new methodology for 2004 and beyond. 1Change of methodology: the calculation of the tolar's effective exchange rate includes the currencies/prices of Slovenia's 17 trading partners (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Italy, France, Netherlands, Spain, Denmark, United Kingdom, Sweden, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, USA, Switzerland, Japan); weights are the shares of individual trading partners in Slovenian exports and imports of goods within manufacturing (5-8 SITC) in 2001-2003; exports are double weighted; a rise in the index value indicates an appreciation of domestic currency and vice versa. 2Producer prices in manufacturing activities. 3in enterprises and organizations. 4Based on producer prices in SIT. 5Only domestic factors. Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD Public Finance No. 6/2007 p. A 12 Current prices in SIT million, . 2006 2006 2007 since 2007 in EURO thousand 2003 2004 2005 2006 QI QII QIII QIV 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 CONSOLIDATED GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 2,477,425 2,683,055 2,869,949 3,105,421 817,212 729,600 874,009 3,063,361 249,793 257,716 222,090 276,487 287,812 309,710 1,061,224 958,444 1,043,693 Current revenues 2,440,298 2,609,053 2,759,987 2,970,410 782,080 706,346 816,169 2,954,773 242,449 249,677 214,220 259,442 265,390 291,337 1,034,395 926,156 994,223 Tax revenues 2,291,071 2,446,899 2,608,230 2,818,643 746,742 665,880 768,117 2,828,698 232,024 234,557 199,299 243,250 252,118 272,749 994,506 883,169 951,023 Taxes on income and profit 460,520 506,878 537,260 655,486 235,706 134,797 154,693 587,733 43,014 47,180 44,603 41,871 49,212 63,610 188,151 189,870 209,713 Social security contributions 839,216 899,400 955,611 1,013,970 248,707 250,117 272,872 1,083,374 83,794 82,071 84,253 84,480 86,391 102,001 358,356 360,464 364,554 Taxes on payroll and workforce 107,424 117,676 126,097 113,334 27,214 27,376 32,279 96,050 9,324 8,803 9,249 9,226 9,804 13,249 32,835 32,096 31,119 Taxes on property 34,419 39,513 40,834 45,322 10,171 15,126 13,585 22,183 4,448 6,898 3,780 3,402 7,140 3,043 6,207 7,914 8,063 Domestic taxes on goods and services 814,577 856,610 938,118 977,082 221,864 235,012 290,547 1,017,613 90,261 88,669 56,082 103,301 97,968 89,279 403,169 286,860 327,584 Taxes on international trade & transactions 34,653 19,339 9,360 12,145 2,988 2,653 3,866 21,478 947 746 960 895 1,528 1,444 5,460 6,313 9,706 Other taxes 261 7,484 950 1,304 92 799 275 266 237 190 372 75 76 125 329 -347 284 Non-tax revenues 149,227 162,154 151,756 151,767 35,338 40,465 48,051 126,076 10,425 15,119 14,921 16,192 13,272 18,588 39,889 42,987 43,200 Capital revenues 15,857 20,751 27,181 39,971 7,299 10,175 15,465 17,550 2,504 2,869 4,802 4,651 6,163 4,651 6,450 5,008 6,093 Grants 13,384 1,877 2,173 1,287 344 356 409 2,094 97 105 154 61 177 1 71 713 398 984 Transferred revenues 7,887 7,536 8,140 10,259 75 117 9,985 1,835 55 -32 94 26 9,483 476 1,727 31 77 Receipts from the EU budget - 43,838 72,469 83,494 27,414 12,607 31,981 87,109 4,689 5,098 2,820 12,307 6,599 13,076 17,940 26,852 42,317 CONSOLIDATED GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE TOTAL EXPENDITURE 2,555,894 2,768,427 2,941,756 3,165,327 802,516 721,094 925,862 3,202,765 238,539 234,980 247,575 265,622 285,225 375,015 985,195 1,109,087 1,108,483 Current expenditure 1,225,523 1,234,113 1,283,018 1,363,301 349,651 308,809 367,663 1,482,078 103,403 101,202 104,203 115,023 117,158 135,482 489,171 473,370 519,538 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditure 662,776 700,349 722,822 762,128 195,534 188,138 196,382 786,022 61,910 61,987 64,240 63,616 64,797 67,969 262,129 262,128 261,765 Expenditure on goods and services 451,440 429,861 457,942 496,830 125,618 111,986 150,253 490,238 38,815 37,555 35,616 41,887 46,338 62,028 192,055 146,133 152,050 Interest payments 92,661 91,933 89,180 90,199 25,453 5,439 15,910 197,546 1,519 706 3,215 8,325 5,011 2,574 32,428 62,373 102,745 Reserves 18,646 11,969 13,074 14,145 3,046 3,246 5,117 8,272 1,159 954 1,133 1,195 1,012 2,909 2,559 2,735 2,978 Current transfers 1,097,369 1,249,909 1,341,641 1,420,064 397,591 332,290 372,882 1,457,088 113,895 109,214 109,182 110,952 122,357 139,573 434,831 507,916 514,341 Subsidies 69,470 77,571 91,362 96,556 42,366 13,742 31,540 104,411 7,395 2,952 3,395 5,146 6,475 19,918 6,748 54,844 42,819 Current transfers to individuals and households 986,100 1,053,417 1,109,197 1,167,404 313,688 280,259 294,149 1,219,051 93,257 94,521 92,482 92,935 102,296 98,919 388,090 415,487 415,475 Current transfers to non-profit institut., other current domestic transfers 36,722 113,675 134,930 149,548 39,465 35,971 45,707 130,721 12,411 11,551 12,008 12,583 12,909 20,214 39,679 35,484 55,558 Current transfers abroad 5,077 5,247 6,154 6,556 2,071 2,319 1,485 2,905 832 190 1,297 288 676 521 315 2,101 489 Capital expenditure 142,131 151,305 156,784 216,016 26,537 42,704 117,094 133,220 11,239 14,307 17,158 19,780 26,348 70,967 44,660 46,396 42,164 Capital transfers 90,871 92,464 91,874 96,956 15,694 19,384 52,703 30,424 4,478 4,042 10,864 13,658 15,861 23,184 8,203 9,460 12,761 Payments to the EU budget - 40,637 68,438 68,990 13,044 17,907 15,520 99,954 5,524 6,215 6,168 6,210 3,501 5,810 8,330 71,946 19,679 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -78,469 -85,372 -71,807 -59,906 - - - - - - - - - - - - - Source of data: MF Bulletin. Note: in line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the state are not consolidated. Main Indicators Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 6/2007 p. A 13 Real growth rates, in % 2001 2002 2007 2008 2003 Spring Forecast 2007 GDP 2.7 3.5 2.7 4.4 4.0 5.2 4.7 4.4 GDP per capita, in EUR 11,094 11,866 12,461 13,146 13,807 14,808 15,900 17,132 GDP per capita, PPS1 15,400 16,000 16,800 18,200 19,200 - - - Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 6.4 6.4 6.7 6.3 6.6 6.0 5.7 5.4 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 2.2 3.8 3.1 3.9 3.7 4.0 3.8 3.6 Inflation2, annual average 8.4 7.5 5.6 3.6 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.5 INTERNATIONAL TRADE - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS Exports of goods and services3 6.3 6.7 3.1 12.5 10.5 10.0 9.7 9.2 Exports of goods 7.0 6.4 4.4 12.8 10.3 10.8 10.1 9.4 Exports of services 3.2 8.0 -2.5 10.9 11.7 6.4 7.6 8.0 Imports of goods and services3 3.0 4.8 6.7 13.4 7.0 10.4 8.7 8.6 Imports of goods 3.2 4.4 7.3 14.6 6.8 10.5 8.8 8.6 Imports of services 1.8 7.5 3.0 5.5 8.4 9.5 7.8 8.4 Current account balance, In EUR million 38 247 -196 -720 -547 -773 -629 -273 Average exchange rate, SIT/EUR 217.2 226.2 233.7 238.9 239.6 239.6 - - Foreign exchange reserves, In EUR million 6,514 7,842 7,703 7,484 8,833 8,005 8174 - Gross external debt, In EUR million 10,386 11,524 13,225 15,343 19,614 23,718 28,1295 - DOMESTIC DEMAND - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS (share in GDP in %) Private consumption 56.6 55.5 55.8 54.8 54.9 54.0 53.4 52.5 Government consumption 20.0 19.7 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.3 19.1 18.9 Gross fixed capital formation 24.1 22.6 23.3 24.5 24.4 25.8 26.2 26.7 CONSOLIDATED GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE BY THE GFS - IMF METHODOLOGY (as a % of GDP) General government revenue 42.7 40.6 42.6 42.8 43.3 43.66 42.9 41.7 General government expenditure 44.0 43.5 44.0 44.1 44.4 44.46 43.8 42.5 Surplus (deficit) -1.3 -2.9 -1.4 -1.3 -1.1 -0.86 -0.9 -0.8 Sources of data: SORS, BS, MF, calculations, estimate and forecast by the IMAD - Spring Forecast 2007. Notes: 1Eurostat, March 2007; 2the consumer price index; 3balance of payments statistics (exports F.O.B., imports F.O.B.), changes in exchange rates and prices in foreign markets eliminated by calculating real rates; 4end May. From 1 January 2007, foreign exchange reserves of the Bank of Slovenia include foreign cash in convertible currencies, deposits abroad, and first class securities of issuers from outside the Euro area in foreign currency. The drop in data values is the result of Slovenia's entry to the Economic and Monetary Union.; 5end March; preliminary data of Ministry of finance. International Comparisons / I Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 6/2007 p. A 14 Real GDP growth GDP per capita in PPS1 EU25=100 Inflation2 (annual average) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2001 2002 2003 2004 2003 2004 2005 2006 Slovenia 2.7 4.4 4.0 5.2 74.5 77.4 79.9 81.9 5.7 3.7 2.5 2.5 EU27 1.3 2.5 1.8 3.0 95.6 95.8 95.9 96.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A EU25 1.3 2.4 1.8 2.9 100 100 100 100 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.2 Euro Area 0.8 2.0 1.5 2.7 107.9 107.5 106.6 106.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 Belgium 1.0 3.0 1.1 3.2 117.6 118.9 119.4 118.0 1.5 1.9 2.5 2.3 Bulgaria 5.0 6.6 6.2 6.1 28.4 31.1 32.4 33.7 2.3 6.1 6.0 7.4 Czech Republic 3.6 4.2 6.1 6.1 67.7 70.7 72.1 73.6 -0.1 2.6 1.6 2.1 Denmark 0.4 2.1 3.1 3.2 121.4 119.3 119.4 121.8 2.0 0.9 1.7 1.9 Germany -0.2 1.2 0.9 2.8 108.5 112.5 111.1 110.0 1.0 1.8 1.9 1.8 Estonia 7.1 8.1 10.5 11.4 46.8 51.2 53.4 59.8 1.4 3.0 4.1 4.4 Greece 4.8 4.7 3.7 4.3 77.2 80.2 81.4 84.0 3.4 3.0 3.5 3.3 Spain 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.9 95.2 96.7 96.6 97.9 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.6 France 1.1 2.5 1.7 2.0 112.0 107.7 107.7 108.1 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.9 Ireland 4.3 4.3 5.5 6.0 132.3 134.4 135.7 138.8 4.0 2.3 2.2 2.7 Italy 0.0 1.2 0.1 1.9 110.0 106.0 103.1 100.7 2.8 2.3 2.2 2.2 Cyprus 1.8 4.2 3.9 3.8 82.6 85.2 87.6 88.9 4.0 1.9 2.0 2.2 Latvia 7.2 8.7 10.6 11.9 38.7 41.2 43.7 48.6 2.9 6.2 6.9 6.6 Lithuania 10.3 7.3 7.6 7.5 41.9 47.1 49.0 52.1 -1.1 1.2 2.7 3.8 Luxembourg 1.3 3.6 4.0 6.2 220.7 236.7 240.8 251.0 2.5 3.2 3.8 3.0 Hungary 4.2 4.8 4.1 3.9 59.1 60.8 61.3 62.5 4.7 6.8 3.5 4.0 Malta -0.3 0.1 3.3 3.3 74.9 74.3 72.1 71.7 1.9 2.7 2.5 2.6 Netherlands 0.3 2.0 1.5 2.9 125.3 123.8 124.6 125.5 2.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 Austria 1.1 2.4 2.0 3.1 120.0 123.4 123.4 122.9 1.3 2.0 2.1 1.7 Poland 3.8 5.3 3.5 5.8 46.3 46.9 48.7 49.7 0.7 3.6 2.2 1.3 Portugal -0.7 1.3 0.5 1.3 79.5 73.5 72.1 71.7 3.3 2.5 2.1 3.0 Romania 5.2 8.5 4.1 7.7 28.1 29.9 32.6 34.2 15.3 11.9 9.1 6.6 Slovakia 4.2 5.4 6.0 8.3 51.0 52.8 54.4 57.1 8.4 7.5 2.8 4.3 Finland 1.8 3.7 2.9 5.5 114.7 108.6 111.1 110.5 1.3 0.1 0.8 1.3 Sweden 1.7 4.1 2.9 4.2 113.7 115.4 115.4 114.7 2.3 1.0 0.8 1.5 United Kingdom 2.7 3.3 1.9 2.8 116.1 116.1 118.0 117.6 1.4 1.3 2.1 2.3 USA 2.5 3.9 3.2 3.3 145.4 146.3 147.9 149.9 2.3 2.7 3.4 N/A Sources of data: SORS; Eurostat. New Cronos. Notes: 1PPS - Purchasing Power Standard. Data for 2005 were published by Eurostat on 15 June 2006. 2 Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices for EU countries and Consumer Price Index for the USA. N/A - not available *Autumn Forecast European Commission International Comparisons / II Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 6/2007 p. A 15 Survey Unemployment Rate Current account balance1, % GDP General Government Balance2, % GDP General Government Gross Debt2, % GDP 2003 2004 2005 2006 2002 2003 2004 2005 2002 2003 2004 2005 2002 2003 2004 2005 Slovenia 6.7 6.3 6.5 6.0 -0.8 -2.6 -2.0 -2.7 -2.8 -2.3 -1.5 -1.4 28.6 28.9 28.4 27.8 EU 27 9.0 9.0 8.7 7.9 0.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.7 -3.1 -2.7 -2.4 -1.7 61.8 62.2 62.9 61.7 EU25 9.0 9.0 8.7 7.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A -3.1 -2.7 -2.4 -1.7 62.1 62.5 63.3 62.2 Euro Area 8.7 8.8 8.6 7.9 0.5 0.8 0.0 -0.1 -3.0 -2.8 -2.5 -1.6 69.3 69.7 70.5 69.0 Belgium 8.2 8.4 8.4 8.2 4.5 3.6 2.5 2.3 0.1 0.0 -2.3 0.2 98.6 94.3 93.2 89.1 Bulgaria 13.7 12.0 10.1 9.0 -5.5 -6.6 -12.0 -15.8 -0.9 2.2 1.9 3.3 45.9 37.9 29.2 22.8 Czech Republic 7.8 8.3 7.9 7.1 -6.5 -6.3 -2.7 -4.1 -6.6 -2.9 -3.5 -2.9 30.1 30.7 30.4 30.4 Denmark 5.4 5.5 4.8 3.9 3.4 3.1 3.6 2.5 0.0 2.0 4.7 4.2 45.8 44.0 36.3 30.2 Germany 9.0 9.5 9.5 8.4 2.0 3.9 4.2 4.7 -4.0 -3.7 -3.2 -1.7 63.9 65.7 67.9 67.9 Estonia 10.0 9.7 7.9 5.9 -11.5 -12.5 -11.1 -14.2 2.0 2.3 2.3 3.8 5.7 5.2 4.4 4.1 Greece 9.7 10.5 9.8 8.9 -10.0 -9.5 -9.2 -11.4 -6.2 -7.9 -5.5 -2.6 107.8 108.5 107.5 104.6 Spain 11.1 10.6 9.2 8.5 -4.0 -5.9 -7.5 -8.5 0.0 -0.2 1.1 1.8 48.8 46.2 43.2 39.9 France 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.4 0.2 -0.6 -2.1 -2.0 -4.1 -3.6 -3.0 -2.5 62.4 64.3 66.2 63.9 Ireland 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.4 0.0 -1.0 -3.1 -3.3 0.4 1.4 1.0 2.9 31.2 29.7 27.4 24.9 Italy 8.4 8.0 7.7 6.8 -0.9 -0.5 -1.2 -2.0 -3.5 -3.5 -4.2 -4.4 104.3 103.8 106.2 106.8 Cyprus 4.1 4.6 5.2 4.7 -2.2 -5.0 -5.6 -5.9 -6.3 -4.1 -2.3 -1.5 69.1 70.3 69.2 65.3 Latvia 10.5 10.4 8.9 6.8 -8.2 -12.9 -12.6 -21.1 -1.6 -1.0 -0.2 0.4 1 4.4 14.5 12.0 10.0 Lithuania 12.4 11.4 8.3 5.6 -6.8 -7.5 -6.9 -10.7 -1.3 -1.5 -0.5 -0.3 21.2 19.4 18.6 18.2 Luxembourg 3.7 5.1 4.5 4.7 8.0 11.8 11.1 8.6 0.4 -1.2 -0.3 0.1 6.3 6.6 6.1 6.8 Hungary 5.9 6.1 7.2 7.5 -7.9 -8.4 -6.8 -5.9 -7.2 -6.5 -7.8 -9.2 58.0 59.4 61.7 66.0 Malta 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.3 -2.8 -6.4 -8.3 -6.3 -10.0 -5.0 -3.1 -2.6 70.4 73.9 72.4 66.5 Netherlands 3.7 4.6 4.7 3.9 6.1 8.6 7.1 9.9 -3.1 -1.8 -0.3 0.6 52.0 52.6 52.7 48.7 Austria 4.3 4.8 5.2 4.8 1.7 2.1 2.9 3.7 -1.6 -1.2 -1.6 -1.1 64.6 63.9 63.5 62.2 Poland 19.6 19.0 17.7 13.8 -2.1 -4.4 -1.7 -2.3 -6.3 -5.7 -4.3 -3.9 47.1 45.7 47.1 47.8 Portugal 6.3 6.7 7.6 7.7 -6.5 -8.0 -9.6 -9.8 -2.9 -3.3 -6.1 -3.9 56.8 58.2 63.6 64.7 Romania 7.0 8.1 7.2 7.3 -4.8 -5.0 -8.7 -10.3 -1.5 -1.5 -1.4 -1.9 21.5 18.8 15.8 12.4 Slovakia 17.6 18.2 16.3 13.4 -2.1 -2.5 -7.9 -7.7 -2.7 -2.4 -2.8 -3.4 42.4 41.5 34.5 30.7 Finland 9.0 8.8 8.4 7.7 5.9 7.7 4.9 5.9 2.5 2.3 2.7 3.9 44.3 44.1 41.4 39.1 Sweden 5.6 6.3 7.4 7.0 6.6 6.5 5.8 7.0 -0.9 0.8 2.1 2.2 53.5 52.4 52.2 46.9 United Kingdom 4.9 4.7 4.8 5.3 -1.3 -1.6 -2.4 -3.4 -3.2 -3.1 -3.1 -2.8 38.8 40.3 42.2 43.5 USA 6.0 5.5 5.1 4.6 -4.7 -5.6 -6.2 -6.1 -4.6 -4.4 N/A N/A 62.5 63.4 N/A N/A Sources of data: SORS; Eurostat. Notes: 1EU25 and euro area aggregates are adjusted for reporting errors concerning intra-EU trade ; 2 data from Eurostat news release on 23 October 2006. Graphs Slovenian Economic Mirror IMAD No. 6/2007 p. A 16 INDUSTRY indices: average 2000=100 trend indices by the TRAMO-SEATS method J[ 1 tv w A m\ \ N * \ i • ORIGINAL INDICES-TREND INDICES s? u iii < O Q = 3 ®