.^'IMAD O fü Q) £ u £ o o Ü) o u 0) > uS fN CD fN fO Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3826 No. 5 / Vol. XVIII / 2012 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Responsible Person: Boštjan Vasle, MSc, Director Editor in Chief: Barbara Ferk, MSc Authors of Current Economic Trends (listed alphabetically): Jure Brložnik, Janez Dodič, Marjan Hafner, Matevž Hribernik, Slavica Jurančič, Jasna Kondža, Janez Kušar, Ivo Lavrač, PhD, Urška Lušina, MSc, Jože Markič, PhD, Tina Nenadič, MSc, Mitja Perko, MSc, Jure Povšnar, Ana T. Selan, MSc, Dragica Šuc, MSc, Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič Authors of Selected Topics: Mateja Kovač, MSc (Farm tourism), Judita-Mirjana Novak (Performance of companies in 2011) Editorial Board: Lidija Apohal Vučkovič, Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, Boštjan Vasle, MSc Translator: Marija Kavčič Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Bibijana Cirman Naglič Print: SORS Circulation: 90 copies © The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the spotlight................................................................................................................................................................3 Current economic trends..............................................................................................................................................5 International environment...............................................................................................................................................7 Economic activity in Slovenia..........................................................................................................................................8 Labour market..................................................................................................................................................................14 Prices..................................................................................................................................................................................16 Balance of payments.......................................................................................................................................................18 Financial markets.............................................................................................................................................................20 Public finance....................................................................................................................................................................21 Selected topics..............................................................................................................................................................25 Performance of companies in 2011..............................................................................................................................27 Farm tourism.....................................................................................................................................................................28 Boxes Box 1: Gross domestic product, Q1 2012.....................................................................................................................10 Box 2: Real estate market - Q1 2012............................................................................................................................12 Box 3: Concentration in the retail sale in non-specialised stores with food predominating............................13 Box 4: Revised state budget for 2012...........................................................................................................................23 Statistical appendix.....................................................................................................................................................31 The Economic Mirror is prepared based on statistical data available by 8 June 2012. On January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev.2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia, the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, which includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses, came into force on the mentioned date. In the Slovenian Economic Mirror, all analyses are based on the SKD 2008, except when the previous SKD 2002 classification is explicitly referred to. More general information about the introduction of the new classification is available on the SORS website http://www.stat.si/eng/ skd nace 2008.asp. All seasonally adjusted data in the Economic Mirror are calculations by IMAD. In the spotlight In the first quarter of this year, economic activity in the euro area stagnated, while for 2012 as a whole, the European Commission and the OECD project a contraction of economic activity. The key reason why economic activity in the euro area exceeded the expectations from the EC's spring forecast in the first quarter was GDP growth in Germany. The EC and the OECD nevertheless expect a decline in euro area GDP for this year. The forecasts are sill accompanied by significant downside risks that are mainly due to uncertainties regarding the sovereign debt crisis. Unfavourable labour market conditions will continue and the high unemployment rate will, amid continued fiscal consolidation and bank deleveraging, additionally impede domestic demand. In the first quarter, Slovenia's GDP increased somewhat relative to the last quarter of 2011, but Slovenia remains among EU Member States with the largest drops in activity during the crisis. Year-on-year, GDP contracted by 0.2%. Net exports again made the largest contribution to growth in economic activity, but they-o-y growth of exports slowed further while imports declined. The key reason for a smaller y-o-y decline of GDP than in the previous quarter was growth in household and government consumption. The latter is likely a result of the relatively strong growth of employment in the general government sector. In household consumption, spending on durable goods continues to drop and current data show a continuation of these trends. The y-o-y decline in investment was larger than in the previous quarter, as besides construction investment, investment in machinery and equipment also dropped y-o-y. Labour market conditions remain unfavourable, regardless of declining unemployment; the average gross wage rose somewhat in the first quarter on the back of extraordinary payments in the private sector. The number of employed persons, excluding self-employed farmers, dropped somewhat further in the first quarter of 2012, once again most notably in construction, while in public services employment continued to grow. On the other hand, data from the labour force survey show an improvement (seasonally adjusted), which we estimate is a result of an increase in informal work. In April, registered unemployment declined somewhat again (seasonally adjusted) but remained high (109,084 persons). In the first four months as a whole, it was down 1.2% year-on-year, largely on account of a lower number of registered persons and a higher number of unemployed deleted from the register, mainly for neglect of duties. In the first quarter, wage movements in private sector activities were marked by extraordinary payments, while in public service activities, wages were down y-o-y due to intervention measures. Consumer prices rose by 0.6% in May, while their y-o-y growth dropped to 2.4%. Monthly growth was underpinned particularly by stronger seasonal movements in prices of food and clothing and footwear, while growth in the latest twelve months remains low due to modest economic activity. This time, liquid fuel prices reduced monthly inflation by 0.2 p.p., but they still contributed 0.6 p.p. to y-o-y inflation. According to Eurostat's flash estimate, y-o-y inflation in the euro area also stood at 2.4%. In April, the situation in the financial system continued to deteriorate. The lending activity declined again in April. The volume of household and corporate loans was down, in particular, while the crediting of the government sector slowed significantly. In the first quarter, banks strengthened the repayment of all types of foreign liabilities while increasing short-term borrowing. In March, the volume of banks' bad claims increased by the highest amount thus far, reaching almost EUR 6 bn or as much as 11.8% of the total exposure of banks. Around a third of the increase is attributable to the strengthening of non-performing claims, especially claims against the construction sector and financial and insurance services. In May, the National Assembly adopted a revised state budget for 2012, setting revenue at EUR 7.9 bn and expenditure at EUR 9.0 bn. With the aim to avoid increasing the deficit as was the case in previous years, the revised budget envisages much lower expenditure than the previous budget and 3.7% lower than in 2011. In order to reach this goal, the Public Finance Balance Act (ZUJF) was passed in addition to the revised budget, putting in place a wide array of measures and amending 39 laws. As at the time of the adoption of the revised budget certain ZUJF provisions were still being reconciled, the total cut in expenditure is smaller than planned, which will require additional reallocations of expenditures within the budget. With revenue estimated to be 1.4% higher than in 2011, the revised budget envisages a deficit in the amount of EUR 1,071 m, i.e. 3.0% of the estimated GDP. The decline in the budgetary deficit is in line with Slovenia's commitments in the Stability Programme - Update 2012, which anticipates consolidation of public finances. ■ö £ Q) E o £ O u Q) £ Q) 3 U International environment InQ12012, economicactivityin theeuroareastagnated, while the values of confidence indicators suggest a continuation of unfavourable conditions in Q2. After the decline in Q4 2011, euro area GDP remained unchanged in Q1 2012 (seasonally adjusted), which was better than expected, as the EC spring forecast projected a further contraction. The key reason was growth in Germany (0.5%, seasonally adjusted), primarily as a result of net exports (0.9 p.p.) and private consumption (0.4 p.p.). The contribution of gross fixed capital formation was negative (-0.6 p.p.). In contrast, economic activity in the most exposed Member States (Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy) continued to decline. Increased uncertainty about the recovery in these countries is also reflected in renewed pressure on the required yields of their 10-year government bonds, while the yield of German bonds continues to decline. The improvement of confidence indicators (PMI, Ifo, ESI, ZEW) in euro area countries was interrupted in April and May, largely due to a more pessimistic assessment of the current situation and increased doubts about successful resolution of the sovereign debt crisis in Greece. In the US, GDP grew slightly in the first quarter (0.5%, seasonally adjusted), but its quarterly growth slowed relative to that at the end of last year and was lower than projected by the EC and OECD. Economic growth in China continues to ease but remains high (seasonally adjusted, 1.8%; y-o-y, 8.1%). Figure 1: GDP growth in Q1 and comparison with the EC forecasts Q2 11 «03 11 «04 11 «01 12 -Q1 12 forecast EMU Germany France Italy Austria Source: Eurostat, the EC forecast (May 2012). The EC and OECD expect a contraction of economic activity in the euro area this year. The EC predicted a 0.3% decline in the euro area for 2012; the OECD a 0.1% decline. Both institutions emphasise that growth forecasts remain subject to substantial downside risks, which mainly arise from uncertainties regarding the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area. Unemployment is also expected to remain high this year,1 which will amid continued fiscal consolidation and deleveraging by most banks in the euro area and EU impede domestic demand. Both institutions agree that net exports will make the greatest contribution to economic activity this year. However, their forecasts for individual euro area countries differ due to different assessments regarding the countries' exposure to financial sector problems and the degree of their internal and external imbalances. According to both institutions, a gradual recovery is expected to start only in the second half of the year and strengthen in 2013, when GDP growth in the euro area should total around 1.0%. The projections are based on assumptions that confidence will strengthen over time, which will positively impact domestic demand, and that the adopted measures to address the crisis, including an increase of the permanent rescue fund (European Stability Mechanism/ESM), will prove sufficient. However, the OECD warns that fiscal consolidation measures should be accompanied by structural reforms that would encourage job creation and economic growth in the long term and help to balance public finances. Figure 2: 10-year government bond yield spread vis-avis German bonds 16 12 S^ 10 6 - Slovenia -Italy -Spain -Portugal Ireland -----Germany O Source: Bloomberg In May, interbank interest rates in the euro area declined for the seven month in a row. The three-month EURIBOR rate declined by an average of 7 b.p. to 0.69% in May, being down 74 b.p. y-o-y. The three-month USD and CHF LIBOR rates (0.47% and 0.11%, respectively) remained almost unchanged, as did the key interest rates of the main central banks (ECB, Fed, Boe). 1 Between 10.8% (OECD) and 11.0% (EC) in 2012. t 14 8 4 2 0 Table 1: Comparison of GDP growth forecasts by international institutions and assumptions used in IMAD Spring Forecast of Economic Trends 2012 2012 2013 IMAD Mar 12 IMF Apr 12 EC May 12 CON May 12 OECD May 12 IMAD Mar 12 IMF Apr 12 EC May 12 CON May 12 OECD May 12 EMU -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.9 EU 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 N/A 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.1 N/A DE 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.6 2.0 IT -1.3 -1.9 -1.4 -1.5 -1.7 0.1 -0.3 0.4 0.1 -0.4 AT 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.8 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 FR 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.2 UK 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.5 1.8 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.9 CZ 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.5 1.9 2.1 1.5 1.9 1.7 HU -0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -1.5 1.3 1.8 1.0 1.5 1.1 PL 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.2 2.6 3.0 2.9 US 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.5 2.6 Source: IMAD Spring Forecast (March 2012), IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2012), EC Economic Forecast (April 2012), Consesus Forecasts (May 2012), OECD Economic Outlook (May 2012). The value of the euro depreciated against main global currencies in May. Relative to the US dollar, it dropped for the third successive month (by 2.8%), averaging USD 1.279 to EUR 1 in May. The euro also lost value against the Japanese yen (by 4.7%, to JPY 101.97 to EUR 1) and the British pound sterling (by 2.2%, to GDP 0.804 to EUR 1). Since September 2011, when the Swiss National Bank decided to keep the exchange rate at a minimum of 1.2 CHF per euro due to the overvaluation of the currency, the value of the Swiss franc has remained almost unchanged (CHF 1.201 to EUR 1). Oil and non-energy commodity prices dropped considerably in May. The main reason for lower commodity prices is deteriorated prospects regarding the recovery in the euro area and lower demand for raw materials in China. In May the average price of Brent crude oil totalled EUR 110.3 per barrel, 8.0% less than in April and 4.1% less than in the same period of 2011. In early June the daily value of Brent crude dropped below USD 110/barrel again, for the first time in 16 months. Oil prices in euros dropped by 5.7% to EUR 86.17/barrel in May, being up 8.0% y-o-y. According to the most recent figures by the IMF, dollar prices of non-energy commodities fell somewhat in April (by 0.5%) after three months of growth, being 14.4% lower y-o-y. The main contribution to the decline (both at the monthly level and y-o-y) came from lower prices of industrial commodities, largely metals. According to provisional data, the decline in non-energy commodity prices continued at an accelerated pace in May. Figure 3: Prices of Brent crude oil and the USD/EUR exchange rate -Price in EUR (left axis) -Price in USD (left axis) -Exchange rate of USD to EUR (right axis) 1.2 a Economic developments in Slovenia Real merchandise trade decreased again in Q1 2012 (seasonally adjusted).2 Real merchandise exports, whose growth had already been gradually easing last year, dropped in Q4 2011 and Q1 2012 (-0.6%). This is mainly linked to slower economic activity in Slovenia's main trading partners. The same goes for real merchandise imports, where the decline deepened somewhat further in Q1 2012 (-1.2%). According to our estimate, the latter is largely a consequence of a new considerable decline in investment activity, with investment in machinery dropping markedly in Q1 after last year's growth. Real merchandise exports is thus again falling behind the 2008 average, while imports continue to lag even more. The total decline in merchandise exports in nominal terms is largely attributable to lower exports to EU countries (seasonally adjusted).3 Merchandise exports to the euro Source: ECB, EIA; calculations by IMAD. 2 According to the National Accounts Statistics. 3 According to the external trade statistics data, which are available up to and including February. 1.8 1.6 1.4 80 60 1.0 40 Figure 4: Merchandise trade - real 4,800 a Source: SORS. Figure 5: Merchandise exports - geographical distribution 115 110 105 c^ 100 95 - Euro area - EU countries outside the euro area ■ Countries of the former Yugoslavia 90 85 80 75 70 85 cS cS cS Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD area shrank in the first two months of this year following the stagnation in the last quarter in 2011, while exports to EU countries outside the euro area continued to decline. Merchandise exports to Germany stagnated in the first two months of this year, according to our estimate, chiefly due to stagnant exports of machinery and transport equipment, which account for around half of total merchandise exports to Germany. In contrast, exports to Italy grew somewhat in the first two months of 2012, after the substantial decline in Q4 2011. In our view, the drop in Slovenia's exports to the euro area was thus mainly a result of around a tenth lower exports to Austria and France;4 the latter declined largely due to a continued contraction of exports of road vehicles. Exports to former Yugoslav countries, representing the bulk of Slovenia's Table 2: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia in % 2011 III 12/ II 12 III 12/ III 11 I-III 12/ I-III 11 Exports1 10.8 16.8 1.5 3.0 -goods 12.5 15.0 1.3 2.8 -services 4.0 26.1 2.5 4.2 Imports1 10.9 14.8 -0.5 1.9 -goods 12.4 14.9 -0.1 2.4 -services 1.9 14.0 -3.6 -1.4 Industrial production 1.2 1.62 0.13 0.23 -manufacturing 1.0 3.52 -0.23 -0.43 Construction -value of construction put in place -25.6 2.72 -10.8 3 -19.93 Real turnover in retail trade 1.5 0.12 0.93 1.23 Nominal turnover market services (without distributive trades) 2.8 -0.32 -0.93 -0.33 Sources: BS, Eurostat, SORS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1balance of payments statistics, ^seasonally adjusted, 3working-day adjusted data. exports outside the EU, stayed at a similar level as at the end of last year. Exports and imports of services expanded in nominal terms in Q1 2012 (seasonally adjusted).5 According to the balance of payments statistics, nominal growth in services exports resulted from an increase in exports of all groups of services, except the main component, exports of travel, which remained similar to those in the previous quarter. Exports of other services otherwise increased the most.6 Figure 6: Estimate of real merchandise exports and imports E cc t 600 cS a Source: SORS. 4 In 2011, merchandise export to these four countries accounted for 48.7% of total merchandise exports; exports to the euro area as a whole for 56.2%. 5 According to the National Accounts Statistics. 6 When adjusting data for seasonal effects, we included communication, construction, financial, computer and information activities, personal service activities, arts, entertainment and recreation activities, government services, insurances and licences, patents and copyrights into the group of other services. All these services combined account for just over a tenth of services exports and nearly a third of services imports. Box 1: Gross domestic product, Q1 2012 GDP grew somewhat in Q1 2012 and its y-o-y drop (-0.2%) was smaller than in the last quarter of 2011. After declining in all four quarters last year, GDP grew somewhat in the first quarter of 2012 (0.2%, seasonally adjusted). Economic activity in the euro area stagnated, but Slovenia nonetheless remains in the group of countries where activity dropped most during the crisis. In the first quarter, external trade shrank relative to the previous quarter and its growth also slowed markedly y-o-y. As a result of lower imports (-1.1%), net exports made almost the same contribution to total y-o-y growth (1.4 p.p.) as in the previous quarter, despite a further slowdown of export growth (0.9%). The key reason for a smaller y-o-y decline of GDP than in Q4 2011 was growth in household and government consumption (1.4% and 0.2%, respectively). Despite the decline in expenditure on goods and services, the latter is likely a result of the relatively strong growth of employment in the general government sector (1.3%). As to household consumption, the current data indicate a continuation of unfavourable trends, as the labour market situation remains tight and spending on durable goods continues to drop. The decline in investment continued (10.9%) and was even more pronounced than in the previous quarter, given that investment in equipment and machinery also shrank amid a continued decline in construction investment. Value added declined in Q1 (-0.2%, seasonally adjusted), being also down y-o-y (-0.9%). After dropping y-o-y in the previous quarter, value added in manufacturing remained unchanged and was, along with value added growth in other industrial sectors, the key reason for a smaller y-o-y decline in total value added than in Q4 2011. The decline of value added in construction was once again the main factor of a further y-o-y drop in total value added and contributed 0.6 p.p. to the total decline. Similar movements as in Q4 2011 were recorded in market services, where value added was lower y-o-y again, and in public services, which continued to grow y-o-y. Figure 7: Expenditure structure of Slovenia's GDP Imports of goods and services I Changes in inventories,valuables I Government consumption I -Real GDP growth (right axis) 20 5 0 -5 S -10 c o -15 O -30 I Exports of goods and services I Gross fixed capital formation I Private consumption 8 a a Source: SORS Figure 8: GDP in Slovenia and selected main trading partners —*—Slovenia -Germany -------France ---Italy -Austria -----Croatia a -jS 97 96 95 J^94 ^ 93 92 91 90 aaaaaaaaaaaaaaa So u rce: Eurostat; calculations by I MAD Imports of services were up somewhat in Q1 in nominal terms but had remained, with minor fluctuations, roughly unchanged since the beginning of 2010. Imports of administrative and support service activities rose again, this time including imports of other services. On the other hand, imports of travel services shrank again and imports of transport services also declined. After stagnating in the latter half of 2011, production volume in manufacturing increased in Q1 (seasonally adjusted), reaching the level of the same period last year. Production in medium-low-technology industries in particular increased relative to the previous quarter, but it remained lower than in the same period last year (except the repair and installation of machinery and equipment). More technology intensive industries, which are recovering fastest from the crisis, continued to see weak growth. Stagnation in low-technology industries, having started in the first half of 2011, continued, which we estimate was also due to their predominant orientation towards the domestic market, where revenues from sales declined again in the first quarter. On the other hand, after the decline in Q3 2011,7 revenues from sales on the foreign market increased at the beginning of this year. 7 According to our estimate, due to a decline in production in medium-low-technology industries, which mainly produce intermediate goods and were therefore among the first to be hit by the moderation of foreign demand. Figure 9: Production volume in manufacturing according to technology intensity and revenues from sales according to geographical orientation —•— Low-technology industries -Medium-low-technology industries -----Medium-high and high-technology industries Figure 10: Production volume in manufacturing in Slovenia and the EU-27 110 100 X -Ä 95 !ä 90 ---Revenues from sales on the domestic market -Revenues from sales on the foreign market 75 a a a Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. The lag behind the 2008 production levels declined at the beginning of the year but remains larger than in the EU. In Q1 2012, production volume in the EU remained at a similar level as in the previous quarter (-0.6%, seasonally adjusted), lagging slightly more than 5% behind that in 2008; in Slovenia by 12%. A wider gap than in the EU as a whole was also recorded in Mediterranean and Scandinavian countries and France, and some new Member States (Bulgaria, Cyprus, Malta). Production in other new members (except Hungary) had already been higher than in 2008 last year. In Germany and Austria, Slovenia's most important trading partners besides France and Italy, manufacturing production is at the same level as in 2008. The larger lag behind the 2008 production levels in Slovenia than in the EU-27 is mainly attributable to certain less technology-intensive industries. The lag is most pronounced in the textile industry and in the manufacture of non-metal mineral products, which are also recovering slowest in the EU, and in the furniture industry, other manufacturing and the manufacture of rubber and plastic products. Closest to pre-crisis levels are the food-processing industry, which is less dependent on the business cycle, and more technology-intensive industries,8 which have also recovered faster due to higher export orientation. In addition to certain more technology-intensive industries, production picked up faster than in the EU and exceeded the 2008 level only in the most export-oriented low-technology industry, the leather industry.9 8 Only the lag of the manufacture of other transport equipment is higher than in manufacturing on average. 9 Employment in the leather industry was up again y-o-y at the beginning of 2012, as was employment in most industries with higher technology-intensity (except the manufacture of electrical appliances) and in less technology-intensive repair and installation of machinery and equipment. 101 2012 !S 84 Slovenia EU Source: SORS, Eurostat; calculations by IMAD The vigorous decline in construction activity has come to a halt in recent months. With continued monthly fluctuations, the value of construction put in place increased by 2.7% in March (seasonally adjusted). Construction activity in Q1 was higher than in the latter half of last year. The value of construction put in place is otherwise still low, down 19.9% from the first quarter last year. Figure 11: Value of construction put in place - Total - Non-resldentlal buildings Residential buildings Civll-englneering works O O O Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. The prospects remain poor. In the first quarter, the value of new contracts was 13.5% lower than in the same period last year. The prospects for residential construction are least favourable, with the value of new contracts only 30% of that in the first quarter last year, while the outlook for civil-engineering is more optimistic, as the value was up 5.3%. Poor prospects are also corroborated by data on issued building permits. In the first quarter, the total floor 2011 98 96 94 92 90 88 86 85 80 82 80 70 Box 2: Real estate market - Q1 2012 The number of sales of second-hand flats plummeted in Q1, while the number of sales of new flats increased. The number of reported transactions in flats according to the provisional data by SMARS, which mainly pertain to second-hand flats, declined by around a fifth (with regard to the previous quarter and y-o-y). A decline in transactions was also recorded for other real estate categories monitored by SMARS. The number of transactions in new flats as monitored by SORS has otherwise grown for the second quarter in row, but it is still lower than in the same period of 2011 and the achieved level is much closer to the lowest than the highest level to date. For the first time, the index calculation also takes into account transactions in new flats from the bankruptcy estate of construction companies. The prices of second-hand flats remain stable, while the prices of new flats fell visibly in the first quarter. Both SORS and SMARS data indicate that the prices of second-hand flats have changed but marginally in the last three years. According to the EC review,1 the prices of flats in Slovenia declined relatively insignificantly. On the other hand, the SORS data for the first quarter show that the prices of new flats dropped 8% relative to the previous quarter and y-o-y, and 16% in total from the highest level. Real estate prices in other segments of the market that are monitored by SMARS have no common tendency. Figure 12: Real estate market -SORS prices, second-hand flats ---------SORS prices, new flats -SMARS prices ---Transactions recorded by SMARS ---Transactions in new flats, SORS 130 120 110 100 5i 90 80 a iS 70 ■Ü 60 50 40 30 \ i\ A -i......1......1......1......1.......l /\......1......t......y \i......1...... \ I \ \......M' j ' / \ ' ■ ! ! \......4......4......4......4......1 \ 4......4../4.... \ ...4......4......4......4 ■j......\......i............i......4......ifi-i......j......j......i......\......i.............i.......|\ \ v //III! \ ............^......fAH-i f i..............................^......f-V-i.....^ W, / ... ........... ....... a a a a Source: SORS, SMARS; calculations by IMAD. 1 European Commission: In depth Review of Slovenia, Brussels 2012. area planned by building permits was 30.8% lower than a year earlier (residential buildings -35.8%; non-residential buildings -25.6%), which is also related to the introduction of payments for the change of use of agricultural land mid-2012, which increased costs of investing. In the first quarter, nominal turnover in wholesale trade continued to grow, while real turnover in retail trade remained roughly unchanged and real turnover in the sale and repair of motor vehicles dropped further (seasonally adjusted). With fewer cars sold,10 real turnover in the sale and repair of motor vehicles continued to shrink (both seasonally adjusted and year-on-year). Nominal turnover in wholesale trade increased again in the first quarter 201211 but nevertheless lags more behind the 2008 level than in other trade sectors. Real turnover in retail trade remained at a similar level as in the previous two quarters. Regarding retail trade, real turnover in the sale of automotive fuels rose again while turnover in food and non-food products dropped further. In retail trade, the sale of automotive fuels continued to increase, according to our estimate due to increased volume of land transport, lower prices of some automotive fuels than in the neighbouring countries and probably also increased sales of some other products.12 Given the tightened situation on the labour market, the negative movements in other retail trade sectors, i.e. the sale of non-food and food products, persisted. In both, turnover also declined relative to the first quarter last year. The y-o-y contraction of turnover in the sale of food products (particularly in hypermarkets, markets, discount stores, etc.) reported since 2009 also indicates that consumers exercise greater caution in their purchases and are increasingly turning Figure 13: Turnover in trade sectors " Retail trade, real Automotive fuels, real Sale, repair of motor vehicles, real -Wholesale trade, nom. 90 85 80 75 70 a a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 10 In Q1 2012, overall new passenger car registrations were down 14.0% y-o-y, of which registrations by natural persons 18.0%, registrations by legal persons 10.9%. 11 1.2% relative to Q4 2012 (seasonally adjusted) and 3.3% relative to Q1 2011. 12 As companies are classified with regard to their main activity, besides the higher quantity of automotive fuels sold, the total increase in turnover in the sale of automotive fuels is also impacted by higher sales of other products sold by these companies, for example other merchandise and services, electricity, natural gas, etc. In 2011, turnover in this sector was up by 15.3%; in Q1 2012, by a fifth y-o-y. 95 Box 3: Concentration in the retail sale in non-specialised stores with food predominating The market concentration in stores that mainly sell food, which is typically high in Slovenia, has been decreasing in recent years, particularly due to increased sales in discount stores. From 2000 to 2006 the market concentration in non-specialised stores that mainly sell food (hypermarkets, markets, discount stores, etc.)1 increased as a result of failure of small companies, and mergers or takeovers by larger companies. After the low figures in 2000, the concentration ratio in this sector (measured by the Hirschman-Herfindahl index/HHI) had exceeded the upper limit (1,800) in 2005 and reached the highest level in 2006. In the following five years the ratio was gradually declining but nevertheless remained high. The decline in the concentration level over the past five years is mainly attributable to increased sales in foreign discount stores that entered the Slovenian market in 2005 and 2007. By broadening their business network and monitoring the buying behaviour of Slovenian consumers in the circumstances of the economic crisis, the foreign discount stores combined generated 13% of the total revenue from sales in this sector in 2011 (in contrast to only 6% in 2007). Meanwhile, the share of the largest company in the total revenue declined.2 The shares of the other two largest companies have remained at a similar level; together they account for around a third of the total revenue. by lower turnover in specialised stores selling computer and telecommunication equipment, books, sports equipment and toys, furniture, household appliances and construction material. Turnover in this trade sector has already been shrinking since the latter half of 2008 and is a third lower than on average in 2008. Figure 15: Nominal turnover in market services (excluding trade) -Total -Transportation and storage (H) -----Accommodation and food service activities (I) -----Communication activ. (J) -----Professional, technical activ. (M) 90 85 80 75 a a a Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Figure 14: Concentration indices for the retail sale in non-specialised stores with food predominating 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 -HHI ■ Share of the largest three companies in net sales on the domestic market (right axis) 105 45 30 15 2000 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: AJPES; calculations by IMAD 1 Companies registered under SCA 47.110. 2 By 11.4 p.p. by 2011 from the peak value in 2006 when the company generated more than half of the total revenue of this sector. to discount stores rather than buying more expensive name brands (see also Box 3). A decline in the quantity of durable and semi-durable goods sold is also indicated Nominal turnover in market services (excluding trade)^^ shrank in the first quarter of 2012, except in transport services (seasonally adjusted). Turnover dropped in all main market services, except in transportation and storage where it rose by 2.0%. This largest activity14 in the group of main services is the only activity in which turnover exceeds the 2008 average (by 7.9%). Within transportation and storage, turnover increased particularly in land transport. In accommodation and food service activities turnover stagnated this year, after the relatively substantial decline in the last quarter of 2011. Turnover in information-communication activities continued to shrink, manly on account of a 3.4% drop in telecommunications. Professional-technical services where turnover had been growing slightly for quite some time, recorded a significant decline in the first quarter this year, mostly due to architectural and engineering services (which are strongly related to construction activity), where turnover decreased by 4.4%. In administrative and support service activities (N) turnover continues to stagnate, hovering about 5% below the 2008 average. Within that, turnover from employment services has been growing for several months while turnover from travel agencies has declined significantly. The seasonally adjusted sentiment indicator continues to fall. Consumer confidence and confidence in retail 13 Activities from H to N subject to the Council Regulation (EC) No. 1165/98 concerning short-term statistics. 14 Accounting for more than a third of turnover in market services. 95 90 75 60 0 trade have deteriorated substantially in recent months. The confidence indicator in the construction sector is improving gradually but remains lowest. Figure 16: Business trends -Economic sentiment -----Retail trade -Construction Figure 17: Employed persons by activity Source: SORS. Labour market The number of employed persons according to the statistical register^^ declined somewhat again in the first quarter of this year, while data from the labour force survey^16 indicate a modest improvement of the otherwise tightened labour market conditions. Registered employment shrank by 0.2% (seasonally adjusted) relative to the previous quarter and by 0.9% y-o-y. The decline was once again largest in construction, as well as in manufacturing, after the increase in the previous quarter, while employment in public services continued to grow. The same goes for the comparison with the 2008 average: in the first quarter of this year, employment was around 7% lower than in 2008. Table 3: Persons in formal employment by activity 1Q1 11 Q2 11 ftQB 11 1Q4 11 1Q1 12 Manufacturing Construction Market services Public services Source: SORS; calcu lations by IMAD. According to the labour force survey data, the number of employed persons increased in the first quarter (by 1.0%, seasonally adjusted). The disparities in both sets of data can be attributed to increased informal work, according to our estimate. In April, registered unemployment declined somewhat again but remains high. At the end of April, 109,084 persons were unemployed, which is 0.3% less, seasonally adjusted, than in the previous month (in the first four months as a whole, 1.2% less than in the same period last year). This is still mainly due to a y-o-y decline in the number of registered unemployed persons (2,270 fewer persons), especially on account of a lower number of those who lost work and a higher number of those deleted from the register (2,940 more). The latter is mainly attributable to a higher number of people deleted from the register for neglect of duties, but also to a higher number of those included in public works. The registered unemployment Number in '000 Change in umber 2011 III 11 II 12 III 12 2011/ 2010 III 12/ II 12 III 12/ III 11 I-III 12/ I-III 11 Manufacturing 184.8 184.3 184.6 184.6 -3,725 49 395 470 Construction 67.8 68.9 59.9 61.0 -10,709 1,123 -7,832 -9,150 Market services 342.2 342.4 340.4 340.7 -3,400 333 -1,631 -680 -of which: Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 109.7 110.0 108.7 108.6 -2,078 -81 -1,426 -1,005 Public services 170.2 169.5 171.8 172.4 1,406 558 2,817 2,577 Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 51.4 51.2 50.9 50.9 -661 -63 -303 -341 Education 64.7 64.7 65.8 66.0 1,145 204 1,341 1,277 Human health and social work activities 54.1 53.6 55.0 55.4 922 417 1,779 1,642 Other 59.0 58.1 55.3 55.7 5,355 418 -2,354 -2,402 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 15 Employed and self-employed persons, excluding self-employed farmers. 16 In addition to employed and self-employed persons, the number of persons in employment according to the labour force survey also includes informal employment such as occasional work, work by unpaid family workers and similar, but it does not include temporarily employed foreigners. Table 4: Labour market indicators in % 2011 III 12/ II 12 III 12/ III 11 I-III 12/ I-III 11 Labour force -0.1 -0.2 -1.2 -1.1 Persons in formal employment -1.3 0.3 -1.0 -1.1 - Employed in enterprises and organisations and by those self-employed -2.4 0.3 -0.9 -1.1 Registered unemployed 10.1 -3.6 -2.7 -1.1 Average nominal gross wage 2.0 0.8 0.7 1.6 - private sector1 2.6 1.1 1.1 2.3 - public sector1 0.0 0.0 -0.6 -0.3 2011 III 11 II 12 III 12 Rate of registered unemployment. in % 11.8 11.9 11.8 11.7 Average nominal gross wage (in EUR) 1,524.65 1,523.98 1,523.11 1,535.11 Private sector1 (in EUR) 1,451.57 1,452.03 1,452.38 1,468.68 Public sector1 (in EUR) 1,750.03 1,744.95 1,734.78 1,734.13 Sources: ESS. SORS; calculations by IMAD. Note: 'The division into the private and public sectors is (for easier and consistent comparison of wage and productivity growth) adjusted to SORS' division of activities in the quarterly release of GDP. The public sector comprises activities O-Q and the private sector all other activities (A-N. R-S). The growth rates of the average gross wage per employee for 2009 and 2010 are therefore also slightly changed. rate remained high in March (11.7%, seasonally adjusted), despite a slight decline in the last two months. The data from the labour force survey also show that the number of unemployed persons declined in the first quarter of this year (seasonally adjusted). The unemployment rate Figure 18: Selected categories of inflows in and outflows from the unemployment register 35,000 30,000 -5,000 -10,000 gistered -job loss Deleted -neglect of duties Deleted from the register -public works Source: ESS; calculations by IMAD also dropped somewhat (by 0.3 p.p. to 8.2%, seasonally adjusted); the female unemployment rate increased while the male unemployment rate remained unchanged (original data). The gross wage per employee remained around February's level in March (seasonally adjusted); in the first quarter as a whole it grew again (by 0.4%, adjusted for seasonal effects). In the last two and a half years, the increase stemmed from Table 5: Wages by activity Gross wage per employee, in EUR Change, in % 2011 III 12 11/10 III 12/ II 12 III 12/ III 11 I-III 12/ I-III 11 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 1,305.88 1,293.94 3.1 3.5 -2.1 0.0 B Mining and quarrying 1,978.29 2,012.08 3.8 0.8 3.8 8.5 C Manufacturing 1,362.79 1,403.52 3.9 0.1 1.9 3.4 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 2,144.83 2,100.32 2.3 1.2 3.6 5.6 E Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 1,443.42 1,438.51 -0.1 0.8 0.5 2.1 F Constrution 1,235.95 1,206.63 2.0 0.4 -3.1 -0.2 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 1,362.26 1,369.80 2.8 1.4 1.0 2.1 H Transportation and storage 1,459.76 1,433.67 2.7 1.4 2.0 2.2 I Accommodation and food service activities 1,096.99 1,077.80 2.1 0.3 -1.7 -0.4 J Information and communication 2,110.90 2,171.24 0.9 5.9 0.5 0.3 K Financial and insurance activities 2,158.65 2,207.76 0.6 -0.7 3.8 4.5 L Real estate activities 1,520.36 1,527.49 2.9 1.2 -1.5 1.1 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 1,757.35 1,753.19 -0.4 2.8 -1.1 -0.5 N Administrative and support service activities 985.27 996.57 3.5 -1.4 2.0 3.0 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 1,784.27 1,762.00 0.3 -0.8 -0.7 -0.2 P Education 1,733.58 1,731.15 0.2 0.8 -0.5 -0.3 Q Human health and social work activities 1,735.19 1,709.50 -0.7 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 1,719.70 1,748.14 -0.7 5.0 1.3 -0.6 S Other service activities 1,409.41 1,402.92 0.9 1.4 0.0 0.6 wage growth in private sector activities, as the average gross wage in public service activities17 remained nearly unchanged in this period due to government intervention measures (in the first quarter, it was down 0.3% y-o-y). In the private sector, the gross wage usually increases in March, partly due to a higher number of working days, but also due to payments related to business results and overtime work in the previous year. However, in the last two years, this increase was more modest,18 as the bulk of extraordinary payments (particularly this year) had already been paid with wages for February. Consequently, the y-o-y wage growth in these activities also slowed in March, averaging 2.3% in the first quarter as a whole (last year, 3.9%). Figure 19: Y-o-y and seasonally adjusted wage growth in private sector activities and in public service activities Private sector activities -y-o-y Private sector activities -seasonally adjusted, q-o-q Public sector activities -y-o-y Figure 20: Headline and core inflation in Slovenia and in the euro area 10 Public sector activities -seasonally adjusted q-o-q ■fE 4 a a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Prices Amid 0.6% monthly consumer price growth, year-on-year inflation declined to 2.4% in May. The monthly growth was marked particularly by stronger seasonal movements of the prices of food and clothing and footwear. Liquid fuel prices dropped slightly after four consecutive months of growth. They lowered the monthly inflation by 0.2 p.p. but still contributed 0.6 p.p. to y-o-y inflation. According to Eurostat's flash estimate, y-o-y inflation also totalled 2.4% in the euro area. The monthly movement of consumer prices is characterised primarily by seasonal impacts and excise policy, while in the long term, it is marked by subdued economic activity. 17 While the term 'public sector' has so far been used in the Slovenian Economic Mirror for O-Q activities (public administration, education and human health and social work activities), we will rather use the term 'public service activities' in continuation. 18 In 2004-2010, the average increase in March totalled 3.9% (disregarding the increase in the minimum wage in 2010); last year, 2.8%; this year, only 1.1%. -Slovenia HICP Slovenia HICP -core inflation -Euro area HICP Euro area HICP -core inflation Source: Eurostat Besides price changes that are typical for this month of the year, the monthly price growth in April (1.1%) was largely underpinned by further rises of footwear prices (0.3 p.p.) and prices of liquid fuels (0.2 p.p.). To increase budget revenue, the government raised excise duties on tobacco products and alcoholic beverages at the beginning of April. Their prices rose by 3.5% and 0.5%, respectively, contributing around 01. p.p. to inflation. According to the most recent Eurostat's data on the HICP, the impact of tax changes on y-o-y price growth was positive in March, mainly as a result of the increase in excise duties on tobacco products in April and October last year. The long-term inflation dynamics in the euro area and Slovenia remains sluggish and marked by weak economic activity, which is also reflected in a very moderate movement of core inflation. Figure 21: Structure of y-o-y inflation 8 7 6 OjG ^^ J^ Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 6 5 4 is 3 0 14 12 8 6 2 0 3 2 -1 -2 Table 6: Breakdown of the HICP into subgroups - April 2012 Slovenia Euro area Cum. % Weight % Contribution in p.p. Cum. % Weight % Contribution in p.p. Total HICP 2.5 100.0 2.5 1.5 100.0 1.5 Goods 3.3 66.0 2.2 2.0 58.5 1.2 Processed food, alcohol and tobacco 1.7 15.4 0.3 1.1 11.9 0.1 Non-processed food 7.6 7.3 0.6 2.1 7.2 0.2 Non-energy industrial goods 0.6 28.8 0.2 0.9 28.5 0.3 Durables -0.2 10.6 0.0 -0.2 9.0 0.0 Non-durables 0.9 8.8 0.1 0.9 8.2 0.1 Semi-durables 2.2 9.4 0.2 2.3 11.2 0.3 Energy 7.9 14.5 1.1 6.4 11.0 0.7 Electricity for households 4.2 2.7 0.1 3.4 2.6 0.1 Natural gas 1.3 1.1 0.0 3.0 1.8 0.1 Liquid fuels for heating 9.4 1.7 0.2 6.2 0.9 0.1 Solid fuels -5.5 0.9 0.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 District heating 7.9 0.9 0.1 3.4 0.7 0.0 Fuels and lubricants 11.4 7.2 0.8 9.7 4.9 0.5 Services 1.1 34.0 0.4 0.5 41.5 0.2 Services - dwellings 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.8 10.1 0.1 Services - transport 2.0 5.9 0.1 1.6 6.5 0.1 Services - communications 1.1 3.5 0.0 -1.2 3.1 0.0 Services - recreation, repairs, personal care 1.2 13.5 0.2 0.0 14.5 0.0 Services - other services 0.9 8.1 0.1 1.1 7.3 0.1 HICP excluding energy and non-processed food 1.0 78.2 0.8 0.6 81.8 0.5 Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Note: ECB classification Figure 22: Impact of tax changes on y-o-y price growth Impact of tax changes (right axis) -HICP -HICP-CT 8 c-:^ c-:^ c-jz cr^ c tü —^ tü —^ tü —^ tü —^ tü Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Note: The impact of tax changes was computed at the y-o-y level as the difference between HICP and HICP-CT inflation rates. Growth in industrial producer prices remains low. Y-o-y growth in producer prices of manufactured goods on the domestic market rose somewhat relative to March (by 0.1 p.p) and totalled 0.7%. The moderate price movements are still a result of lower prices in the manufacture of Figure 23: Movements of domestic producer prices of manufactured goods sold on the domestic and foreign markets -PPI (domestic market) -----Mfr. of basic metals, fabric. metal prod.; exc. mach.,equip. (domestic) ---Mfr. of food products; beverages; tobacco products (domestic) -PPI (foreign market) 20 16 12 8 CZ ''is4 -4 -8 -12 -16 Source: SORS. metals and metal products at the y-o-y level and weak growth in the predominant part of other industries in the manufacturing sector (0.8%). The prices received by domestic producers on foreign markets are marked by 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 similar dynamics. In April, y-o-y price growth remained around the same level as in the previous month (0.8%). In April, the price competitiveness of the economy again improved less than in most other euro area countries. The real effective exchange rate deflated by the relative HICP stagnated at the level of March (-0.1%), which was a result of the stable nominal exchange rate and relative prices. The y-o-y decline in the real effective exchange rate deflated by the relative HICP was somewhat more pronounced (in April, -0.5%; in the first four months, -1.0%) chiefly due to a decline in the nominal effective exchange rate as a result of the depreciation of the euro against non-EU currencies (primarily against the USD, CHF and JPY). In April and in the first four months of 2012, the y-o-y gain in Slovenia's price competitiveness was among the lowest in the euro area, as the positive effects of the lower value of the euro were relatively smaller due to the geographical structure of our external trade.19 Figure 24: Real effective exchange rate deflated by the relative HICP -REER (HICP defl.) -NEER -Relat. HICP iu 102 Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD. Balance of payments The deficit of the current account of the balance of payments in the first quarter 2012 was higher (EUR 152.6 m) than in the same period of last year (EUR 90.9 m). The y-o-y widening of the deficit in current transactions was influenced by the deficit in the balance of current transfers and a higher deficit in the balance of factor incomes, while the balance of trade improved. The modest growth in external trade in the first quarter this year reflects subdued external demand and a further shrinkage of domestic consumption. The balance of trade recorded a surplus in Q1 this year; the deficit in 19 Given its above-average share of trade in the euro area, Slovenia is relatively less sensitive to the volatility of the euro. merchandise trade was somewhat lower and the deficit in services trade somewhat higher. The merchandise trade deficit in Q1 totalled EUR 300.7 m, compared with EUR 310.9 m in the same period last year. The surplus in services, which has been widening for the third consecutive year, stood at EUR 371.2 m in Q1 and was up EUR 53.6 m y-o-y. The y-o-y improvement in the balance of services trade was mainly underpinned by a wider surplus in trade in transport (mainly maritime) services and the surplus in trade in travel services. Moreover, trade in other services recorded a lower deficit, mainly owing to improvement in trade in construction services. Specifically, exports of construction services (which otherwise account for a smaller share) were up as much as a fifth while imports shrank approximately by the same amount. Figure 25: Components of the current account balance ^^Merchandise trade ^^ Services trade ^■Factor incomes ^MCurrent transfers ___ _Current account 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 -800 -1,000 -1,200 a Source: BS. The deficit in the balance of factor incomes continues to increase due to higher net payments of interest abroad. The balance of current transfers has deteriorated as well. The deficit in the balance of factor incomes recorded EUR 193.6 m in Q1 2012 (EUR 114.3 m in the same period last year). The increase was mainly underpinned by net payments of interest by the private sector, primarily domestic commercial banks, which is attributable to tightened conditions in international financial markets. General government net interest payments were somewhat lower, but they represent the largest share due to high government borrowing in the form of bonds. Net interest receipts of the Bank of Slovenia were lower, largely due to higher interest payments to the Eurosystem. The total net interest payments to the rest of the world amounted to EUR 116.4 m in Q1; EUR 69.4 m in the same period last year. The deficit in the balance of current transfers in Q1 2012 was a result of the deficit of the government sector (a surplus in the same period of last year). Slovenia's receipts from EU structural funds were lower, while the payments of taxes and workers' remittances increased. The deficit of the private sector was down somewhat y-o-y, mainly due to a lower deficit in insurance. 98 Table 7: Balance of payments I-III 12, EUR m Inflows Outflows Balance1 Balance, I - III 11 Current account 6,706.6 6,859.2 -152.6 -90.9 - Trade balance (FOB) 5,156.5 5,457.2 -300.7 -310.9 - Services 1,092.9 721.8 371.2 317.6 - Income 174.7 368.4 -193.6 -144.3 Current transfers 282.5 311.9 -29.4 46.7 Capital and financial account 2,777.2 -2,590.6 186.7 112.3 - Capital account 64.2 -57.8 6.4 -6.8 - Capital transfers 63.9 -57.4 6.5 -4.0 - Non-produced, non-financial assets 0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -2.7 - Financial account 2,713.0 -2,532.8 180.3 119.1 - Direct investment 157.3 -22.1 135.1 52.6 - Portfolio investment 58.3 -994.7 -936.4 2,591.9 - Financial derivates 7.7 -6.5 1.3 -79.6 - Other investment 2,451.1 -1,509.5 941.6 -2,454.4 - Assets 9.5 -1,317.5 -1,308.0 -1,525.2 - Liabilities 2,441.6 -191.9 2,249.6 -929.2 - Reserve assets 38.7 0.0 38.7 8.6 Net errors and omissions 0.0 -34.1 -34.1 -21.4 Source: BS. Note: 1a minus sign (-) in the balance indicates a surplus of imports over exports in the current account and a rise in assets in the capital and financial account and the central bank's international reserves.. In Q12012, international financial transactions recorded a high net outflow of portfolio investment and a high net inflow of other investment; direct investment flows remain modest. In Q1 2012, financial transactions posted a net inflow of EUR 141.6 m (EUR 110.5 m in the same period of last year). Portfolio investment recorded a net outflow in the amount of EUR 936.4 m. The principal of the 3-year RS64 government bond in the amount of EUR 1 bn matured in February and as the bond was mainly bought by foreign investors, it represents the bulk of this year's repayment of the general government external debt. Portfolio Figure 26: Financial transactions of the balance of payments by instrument ^^m Direct investment Portfolio investment Financial derivatives Other investment -Net financial flow 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 £ 500 cc ČŽ 0 -500 -1,000 -1,500 -2,000 -2,500 -3,000 O O O Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. investment of non-residents in private sector securities also declined. Other investment posted a net inflow again, in the amount of EUR 941.6 m. Given the deepening of the debt crisis and hence a limited access to foreign sources of finance, commercial banks are increasingly relying on central bank funds. Longer-term refinancing operations in the first quarter amounted to EUR 2.1 bn, which is the highest amount since the beginning of the financial crisis. Commercial banks used a portion of these funds to repay external debt while depositing the rest abroad. Direct investment flows remain weak, with inter-company crediting accounting for the largest share. With higher inward (EUR 157.3 m) than outward direct investment (EUR 22.1 m), foreign direct investment recorded a net inflow of EUR 135.1 m in Q1 2012. Net external debt totalled EUR 12.0 bn at the end of March (33.9% of estimated GDP), up EUR 0.6 bn from December 2011. At the end of March, Slovenia's gross external debt amounted to EUR 42.8 bn (120.1% of GDP), EUR 1.2 bn more than in December 2011. Gross external debt increased largely due to the pronounced increase in the BS's liabilities to the Eurosystem and, partly, as a result of loans between affiliates. General government debt decreased due to the repayment of the principal of the RS64 bond. The external debt of commercial banks (repayments of loans and withdrawal of non-residents' deposits) and other sectors (where enterprises prevail) also declined (repayments of commercial loans). Gross external claims in debt instruments recorded EUR 30.8 bn at the end of March (86.2% of GDP) and were up EUR 0.6 bn from December 2011. The increase in gross external claims was mainly due to commercial banks' holdings of currency and deposits. Figure 27: Slovenia's net external debt ^HGeneral government Bank of Slovenia ^■Private sector -Net external debt Figure 28: Increase in household, corporate and NFI loans 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 -2,000 -4,000 a a a a a Source: BS. Note: Positive (negative) value means net external debt (net external claims). Financial markets In April, the lending activity of Slovenian banks continued to decline. Compared to previous months, government borrowing eased markedly, while the volume of corporate, NFI and household loans taken with domestic banks shrank. Banks' repayments of foreign liabilities dropped somewhat in April, but bank sources remain fairly limited. The situation on euro area credit markets is also still tight. Banks and enterprises borrow short term from abroad. After it grew in March, the volume of household loans shrank again in April. The decline of just above EUR 30 m resulted from households repaying consumer loans and loans for other purposes, while housing loans continued to grow (by a solid EUR 11 m, which is also this year's monthly average). In the first four months of 2012, the volume of household loans declined by EUR 73 m, largely on account of a decline in consumer loans. The volume of corporate and NFI loans continued to shrink in April, but less visibly than in March. The decline amounted to EUR 22.6 m and was again mainly due to a lower volume of corporate loans, as NFI loans fell rather modestly (EUR 1 m). The volume of corporate and NFI loans dropped by EUR 55.5 m in the first four months. After they were relatively strong in February, corporate and NFI net repayments of foreign loans were marginal in March and the maturity structure of foreign loans continues to deteriorate. Enterprises and NFIs thus net repaid EUR 4.3 m in foreign loans, solely as a result of net repayments of long-term loans, while short-term borrowing was increasing and reached EUR 37.9 m. In Q1 2012, corporate and NFI net repayments abroad totalled just over EUR 10 m. While in previous months the differences between domestic and foreign interest rates for corporate and NFI loans declined, they increased significantly in March and exceeded 210 b.p. ■ Household loans ■ Government loans Corporate and NFI loans Total 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 -600 -700 Source: BS; calculations by IMADD. Banks increased net repayments of foreign liabilities in Q1 2012. Net repayments thus amounted to EUR 1.1 bn. They were fairly evenly distributed between loans, deposits and bonds and hovered between EUR 330 m and EUR 380 m. Somewhat greater differences were observed within net repayments of loans: short-term borrowing was increasing this year, net flows were positive (close to EUR 60 m) and net repayments of long-term loans picked up. Bank sources remained limited in April. According to the Bank of Slovenia, banks decreased their liabilities to foreign banks, by close to EUR 70 m, which is much less than a month earlier. In April, the government was again withdrawing funds from the banking system (just over EUR 40 m), while the increase in household deposits was modest (EUR 27.5 m). Particularly overnight deposits that recorded growth. Figure 29: Bank net borrowing abroad 2,000 1,500 1,000 Bonds Deposits Short-term loans Long-term loans Total -500 -1,000 -1,500 Source: BS. 0 Table 8: Financial market indicators Domestic bank loans to nonbanking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR bn Nominal loan growth, % 31. XII 11 30. IV 12 30. IV/ 31. III 12 30. IV 12/ 31. XII 11 30. IV 12/ 30. IV 11 Loans total 32,733.86 32,922.33 -0.1 0.6 -1.7 Enterprises and NFI 22,065.54 22,010.02 -0.1 -0.3 -4.5 Government 1,214.88 1,531.90 0.5 26.1 32.2 Households 9,453.45 9,380.41 -0.3 -0.8 0.8 Consumer credits 2,723.04 2,636.76 -0.7 -3.2 -5.4 Lending for house purchase 5,163.55 5,208.48 0.2 0.9 5.7 Other lending 1,566.85 1,535.17 -1.5 -2.0 -3.5 Bank deposits total 15,097.17 15,256.56 0.2 1.1 2.6 Overnight deposits 6,440.82 6,502.84 0.5 1.0 2.9 Short-term deposits 4,127.66 4,152.51 -0.1 0.6 -4.1 Long-term deposits 4,521.12 4,593.19 0.0 1.6 8.9 Deposits redeemable at notice 7.57 8.01 12.8 5.8 6.0 Mutual funds 1,810.64 1,882.97 -1.3 4.0 -9.1 Government bank deposits, total 2,848.94 2,446.38 -1.6 -14.1 -26.8 Overnight deposits 139.72 72.73 -34.5 -47.9 130.8 Short-term deposits 694.47 420.75 7.9 -39.4 -67.4 Long-term deposits 2,013.33 1,948.78 -1.8 -3.2 -3.5 Deposits redeemable at notice 1.42 4.12 76.2 190.9 - Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BS, SMA (Securities Market Agency); calculations by IMAD. Figure 30: Monthly increase in bad claims in the Slovenian banking system Other ■ Financial and insurance activities ■ Construction ■ Transportation and storage 350 M Manufacturing 300 250 200 3 150 100 50 0 -50 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. The deterioration of the quality of banks' assets intensified last year. The volume of bad claims increased more than EUR 300 m, which is the highest figure so far. It climbed to almost EUR 6 bn so that the share of bad claims rose to as much as 11.8% of the total exposure of banks. Around a third of the increase is attributable to the strengthening of non-performing claims, especially against the construction sector and financial and insurance services. Among C-rated claims, in addition to the above-mentioned industries, claims against the manufacturing sector strengthened significantly this time, in particular against the manufacture of transport equipment. Public finance In the first four months of 2012, revenue from taxes and social security contributions20 totalled EUR 4.4 bn, 0.5% more than in the same period last year. Broken down by the main categories of taxes and contributions, y-o-y growth was a result of revenues from social contributions (1.0 p.p.), excise duties21 (0.6 p.p.) and personal income tax (0.2 p.p.). The total growth declined due to lower revenue from corporate income tax (by 1.4 p.p.) while the impact of value added tax was neutral. With unchanged contribution rates, social security contributions followed the relatively favourable dynamics of the wage bill. In the first four months, revenue from excise duties was, amid somewhat lower rates of excise duties, up y-o-y largely on account of larger quantities of main excise products sold.22 Excise duties on alcohol and tobacco were otherwise up in April, but this will show in the inflows from excise duties only next month. Revenue from corporate income tax was lower y-o-y due to the tax assessments based on business results for 2011. As a result of the assessments for the previous assessment period, inflows of value added tax also increased somewhat in April. In the first three months of 2012, they were down y-o-y due to weaker economic activity and lower domestic spending, while in the first four months (after the assessments) they were at the same level y-o-y. 20 Based on the Report on Payments of all Public Revenues, January-April 2012, Public Payments Administration. 21 The figure for excise duties is corrected for the timing of excise duty payments. 22 In the period from January to March 2012, the quantity of sold mineral oils was up 7.5% y-o-y (of which D-2 by as much as 21.8%), while the quantity of tobacco and tobacco products was down 1.7 % and the quantity of alcohol and alcoholic beverages down 3.0%. Table 9: Taxes and social security contributions EUR m Growth, % Structure, % I-IV 12 IV 12/ IV 11 I-IV 12/I-IV 11 I-IV 11 I-IV 12 General government revenue - total 4.410.1 -0.5 0.5 100.0 100.0 Corporate income tax 178.1 -65.1 -25.0 5.4 4.0 Personal income tax 699.4 12.0 1.0 15.8 15.9 Value added tax 1.006.9 6.9 0.1 22.9 22.8 Excise duties 477.8 8.7 5.4 10.3 10.8 Social security contributions 1.737.3 2.0 2.6 38.6 39.4 Other general government revenues 310.6 3.5 1.7 7.0 7.0 Source: PPA - Report on Payments of All Public Revenues; calculations by IMAD. Figure 31: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 1,500 1,450 1,400 1,350 o E J^ 1,300 n o E 1,250 1,200 1,150 1,100 - General government revenue - General government expenditure v/ Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. According to the consolidated balance23 of the MF, in the first two months of this year, general government revenue totalled EUR 2.3 bn and general government expenditure EUR 2.9 bn. In the first two months, revenue was down 2.1% y-o-y (last year up 3.7%) while expenditure was up 3.6 % (last year 5.5%). Within the economic structure of expenditure, expenditure on interest recorded the strongest growth (21.6%), followed by subsidies (9.3%) and payments to the EU budget. The y-o-y growth of capital expenditure and capital transfers (4.2%), wages, contributions and other personnel expenditure was more moderate. The y-o-y growth of transfers to individuals and households slowed (1.3%, excluding pensions 0.6%). In the first two months of this year, expenditure on transfers to unemployed declined y-o-y after a long period of growth (-11.4%). Social security transfers remained lower y-o-y (-10.0%). Family receipts and parental compensation were also down (-1.3%) after a long period of stable growth. According to our estimate, both is due to the Exercise of Rights to Public Funds Act,24 which entered into effect this year, and the problems related to its implementation. Table 10: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 2011 2012 EUR m % of GDP Growth, % II 12 EUR m II 12/ I-II 11 Revenue - total 14,981.3 42.0 1.3 2,275.6 -2.1 - Tax revenues 13,209.3 37.1 2.8 2,058.7 0.7 - Taxes on income and profit 2,723.5 7.6 9.3 433.9 2.5 - Social security contributions 5,267.6 14.8 0.6 881.2 2.2 - Domestic taxes on goods and servises 4,856.4 13.6 1.6 726.0 0.3 - Receipts from the EU budget 814.9 2.3 12.5 60.6 -51.2 Expenditure - total 16,543.8 46.4 -0.9 2,929.5 3.6 - Wages and other personnel expenditure 3,882.8 10.9 -0.8 656.3 2.2 - Purchases of goods and services 2,442.0 6.9 -2.7 388.6 0.7 -Domestic and foreign interest payments 526.6 1.5 7.9 271.2 21.6 - Transfers to individuals and households 6,533.1 18.3 4.1 1,068.6 1.3 - Capital expenditure 1,023.0 2.9 -21.6 111.1 1.5 - Capital transfers 371.7 1.0 -4.3 28.0 16.5 - Payment to the EU budget 405.1 1.1 2.1 127.2 9.4 Deficit -1,562.4 -4.4 - -653.9 Source: MF, Public Finance Bulletin. 23 The consolidated balance (according to the cash flow methodology) includes revenues and expenditures of the state and local government budgets, as well as revenues and expenditures of the pension and health funds (the PDII, and the HIIS). 24 It entered into force on 1 January 2012. Box 4: Revised state budget for 2012 The National Assembly adopted a revised budget for 2012 in May, which anticipates a decline in revenue, expenditure and deficit with regard to the previous budget for 2012 approved in December 2010. The revenues and expenditures envisaged in the revised budget are EUR 753 m and EUR 1,104 m lower, respectively, than in the previous budget. The revised budget also anticipates a lower state budget deficit. It is estimated at EUR 1,071 m, which is 3.0% of the estimated GDP. The decline in the budget deficit is also in line with Slovenia's commitment in the Stability Programme - 2012 Update, which anticipates faster consolidation of public finances.1 The revised government budget sets the revenue for 2012 at EUR 7.9 bn, which is 1.4% more in nominal terms than in 2011. Revenue growth will mainly be underpinned by funds from the EU budget (1.0 p.p.) and capital and other revenues (0.6 p.p.) As a result of the deteriorated macroeconomic environment and interventions in the tax legislation, revenues from taxes will decline, reducing the total growth by 0.2 p.p. With the adoption of the revised budget, the total revenue growth will decline the most due to lower revenue from personal income tax (by 0.8 p.p.), which will, besides by wage bill movements, also be affected by revenue from the cedular taxation of capital gains and a higher share of personal income tax transferred to local government budgets. The Public Finance Balance Act (ZUJF2) otherwise stipulates changes in the personal income tax Table 11: Revised state budget for 2012 In EUR m 2011 2011 realisation 2012 suppl. budget Growth in % Structure in % Share in % of GDP 2011/2010 2012/2011 2011 2012 2011 2012 TOTAL REVENUES 7,833.3 7,942.4 3.8 1.4 100.0 100.0 22.0 22.3 TAX REVENUES 6,574.7 6,559.1 5.2 -0.2 83.9 82.6 18.4 18.4 Personal income tax 912.5 853.0 1.2 -6.5 11.6 10.7 2.6 2.4 Corporate income tax 669.2 620.5 49.2 -7.3 8.5 7.8 1.9 1.7 Social security contributions 54.5 54.2 -0.7 -0.7 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.2 Taxes on payroll and workforce 29.2 29.1 4.2 -0.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 Domestic taxes on goods and services 4,796.5 4,883.4 1.6 1.8 61.2 61.5 13.5 13.7 Of which: Value added tax 2,992.4 3,032.8 1.8 1.3 38.2 38.2 8.4 8.5 Excise duties 1,462.4 1,503.0 1.6 2.8 18.7 18.9 4.1 4.2 Taxes on international trade and transactions 100.3 100.5 10.5 0.2 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.3 Other taxes 12.4 18.5 114.0 49.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 NON-TAX, CAPITAL, OTHER REVENUES 446.4 494.7 -22.6 10.8 5.7 6.2 1.3 1.4 RECEIPTS FROM THE EU BUDGET 812.2 888.6 12.3 9.4 10.4 11.2 2.3 2.5 TOTAL EXPENDITURES 9,362.8 9,013.9 0.9 -3.7 100.0 100.0 26.3 25.3 CURRENT EXPENDITURE 2,526.6 2,612.8 -1.5 3.4 27.0 29.0 7.1 7.3 Salaries, wages and other personnel expenditures in government bodies 1,227.9 1,136.8 -1.0 -7.4 13.1 12.6 3.4 3.2 Expenditure on goods and services in government bodies 738.5 668.8 -10.2 -9.4 7.9 7.4 2.1 1.9 Domestic and external interest payments 510.6 668.7 7.1 31.0 5.5 7.4 1.4 1.9 Reserves 49.5 138.5 96.5 179.5 0.5 1.5 0.1 0.4 CURRENT TRANSFERS 5,608.4 5,258.2 4.1 -6.2 59.9 58.3 15.7 14.8 Subsidies 459.4 408.2 -16.7 -11.1 4.9 4.5 1.3 1.1 Transfers to individuals and households 1,449.9 1,416.1 7.9 -2.3 15.5 15.7 4.1 4.0 Transfers to social security funds 1,551.0 1,485.4 12.5 -4.2 16.6 16.5 4.4 4.2 Transfers to public institutions 1,858.7 1,653.8 0.9 -11.0 19.9 18.3 5.2 4.6 Other transfers 289.4 294.8 6.7 1.8 3.1 3.3 0.8 0.8 CAPITAL EXPENDITURE AND CAPITAL TRANSFERS 822.7 739.5 -11.6 -10.1 8.8 8.2 2.3 2.1 PAYMENTS TO THE EU BUDGET 405.1 403.4 2.1 -0.4 4.3 4.5 1.1 1.1 DEFICIT -1,529.5 -1,071.5 -4.3 -3.0 Source: MF, Bulletin of Government Finance, Supplementary state budget (OG RS No. 37/2012). 1 The state deficit according to the revised budget for 2012 is in line with the level set for this year by the Stability Programme and supported by measures stipulated in the ZUJF. Bringing the state deficit below 3% of GDP by 2013 and restoring structural balance by the end of the programming period will require additional measures. 2 Official Gazette of the RS, No. 40/2012, 30 May 2012. brackets and a higher cedular tax rate on capital gains (from 20% to 25%), but this will not yet show in the budget revenue this year. Revenue from corporate income tax will also reduce the overall growth (by 0.6 p.p.). Its inflows will shrink due to the negative tax assessments based on last year's (worse) business results and, consequently, lower monthly tax prepayments this year. Another reason is the changed tax legislation, which reduces the corporate income tax rate from 20% to 18% and increases tax relief for investment and R&D. According to the revised budget, only domestic taxes on goods and services will contribute to total revenue growth (1.1 p.p.); half of growth will stem from higher excise duties and the other half from higher value added tax. Revenue from excised duties is expected to grow somewhat faster as a result of larger quantities of energy products sold and higher excise duty rates on alcohol beverages and tobacco products, while the growth of revenue from value added tax will be very modest. The revised budget sets budget expenditure for 2012 at EUR 9.0 bn, which is 3.7% less in nominal terms than in 2011. With the view of reducing the budget deficit, the revised budget significantly cut expenditure relative to that anticipated in the previous budget. To reach this goal, the government passed the Public Finance Balance Act (ZUJF) together with the revised budget, which put in place a wide array of measures and amended 39 laws. Looking at the economic structure of state budget expenditures, expenditure on interest payments will increase significantly relative to last year due to increased government borrowing and will be the sole factor contributing to expenditure growth (1.7 p.p.). All other expenditures will be lower than last year. The decline in total growth will mainly result from lower salaries, wages and other personnel expenditures in government bodies and public institutions (2.6 p.p.), which will decrease in line with the ZUJF and the Agreement on Measures regarding Wages, Compensation and Other Benefits in the Public Sector to Balance the Public Finances, which was concluded between the government and the representative trade unions of the public sector.3 A significant portion of the decline will be attributable to lower expenditure on goods and services in government bodies and public institutes, which should reduce budget revenue growth by 1.3 p.p. through savings and rationalisation. Capital expenditure and capital transfers will also be reduced, by 0.9 p.p., and limited only to investment co-financed by EU funds. Expenditure on subsidies will also be lower than in 2011, reducing the total revenue growth by 0.5 p.p. The implementation of the ZUJF (anticipating a freeze on transfers to individuals and households and a reduction of certain rights) and the Exercise of Rights to Public Funds Act will also cut the growth of expenditure on transfers to individuals and households (by 0.4 p.p.) and on transfers to the pension fund (by 0.7 p.p.). As the supplementary budget was adopted when the provisions of the ZUJF were still under negotiation, some expenditures will still have to be redistributed within the scope of the revised budget. 3 The agreement between the government of the RS and the representative trade unions of the public sector was signed on 10 May 2012. Expenditure on sickness increased significantly y-o-y in the first two months (34.9%). The y-o-y growth in pension expenditure slowed in the first two months, totalling I.8% (last year, 3.7%), as pensions were not valorised in February because of the freeze on pensions after the adoption of the intervention law. The public finance deficit amounted to EUR 344 m in February alone; in the first two months combined, EUR 654 m, which is EUR 150 more than a year earlier. The deficit of the state budget amounted to as much as EUR 626 m in the first two months, which is EUR 137 m more than a year before (EUR 489 m). The health fund recorded a deficit of EUR 49.2 m, which is much higher than last year (EUR II.1 m), mainly because part of last year's expenditure was carried over to this year. The total balance of local government budgets recorded a surplus of EUR 17.1 m in the first two months. The transfer from the state budget to the pension fund (all obligations) totalled EUR 223.5 m in the first two months, which is EUR 27.6 m less than in the same period last year. In April, Slovenia received EUR 49.1 m from the EU budget, which is two thirds less than in March 2012. Its payments to the EU budget were approximately the same as in March (close to EUR 35 m). Its positive net budgetary position declined from EUR 100 m in March to EUR 14 m in April. In April, the bulk of receipts came from the Cohesion Fund (EUR 32 m), which recorded the same realisation (16% of the foreseen level) as receipts from the structural funds (EUR 14 m in April). As regards the absorption of funds for the implementation of the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policies, there was no visible activity. In the first four months of this year, Slovenia's net budgetary position against the EU budget was positive, in the amount of EUR 47 m, which is by a factor of 2.5 less than last year. Figure 32: Planned and absorbed EU funds ■ Funds planned in the revised state budget for 2012 ■ Funds planned in the state budget for 2011 ■ Total receipts in 2012 (January-April) ■ Total receipts in 2011 (January-December) Common Agricultural Policy 200 300 40( In EUR m Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. 0 500 M %J a o ■o 01 u 31 0! Performance of companies in 2011 Companies' performance improved last year. After the negative difference between net profit and net loss in 2010, companies concluded the year with a positive difference between net profit and net loss. According to data from annual reports for 2011, last year 57,798 companies25 increased net sales relative to the previous year, particularly on the EU market (by 16.6%) and outside the EU (by 16.3%) and somewhat less on the domestic market (by 5.2%). Companies generated 97.9% of all operating revenues by net sales (95.4% of total revenues). As at the same time they rationalised operating expenses, the positive difference between operating revenues and expenses was 4.9% higher than in 2010. Companies' performance was again significantly weighed down by the negative difference between financial revenues and expenses arising from high financial expenses, particularly due to impairment and write-offs of financial investments and bank loans. Its value remained the same as in 2010. As at the same time companies recorded a positive difference between other revenues and expenses, which was 15.0% higher than a year earlier, the positive difference between the total profit and the total loss or between total revenues and total expenses of companies amounted to EUR 914 m, 18.2 more than in 2010. After the assessment of income tax and deferred taxes, companies reported a positive difference between net profit and net loss in the amount of EUR 457 m, which is 32.9% more than in the previous year. A total of 61.5% of companies recorded a net profit and 34.3% a net loss. The greatest positive differences between net profit and net loss were recorded in companies in manufacturing (particularly in the manufacture of pharmaceutical raw materials and preparations, electrical equipment and motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers), wholesale and retail trade, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles Figure 33: Difference between net profit and net loss of companies in 2002-2011 4,000 2,500 g 2,000 cc Ču iE 1,500 1,000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: AJPES; calculations by IMAD. and electricity and gas and steam supply. The negative differences between net profit and net loss were greatest in companies in financial, insurance, construction and accommodation and food service activities. At the end of last year, companies' assets were 3.2% higher than at the end of 2010; the share of equity financing declined (from 38.6% to 38.1%), while the share of assets financed by short-term and long-term liabilities increased (from 58.0% to 58.5%). A comparison of profit and loss accounts shows that last year companies recorded the smallest difference between net profit and net loss in the past five years (excluding the negative difference between net profit and net loss in 2010) Tabela 12: Net profit and net loss of companies by activities in 2011 Activities Net profit Net loss Positive difference between net profit and net loss (+) Negative difference between net profit and net loss (-) Number of companies In EUR thousand Number of companies In EUR thousand In EUR thousand Manufacturing 4,763 878,987 2,043 336,004 542,983 Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 257 143,770 240 10,575 133,195 Construction 4,064 98,733 2,489 272,600 -173,867 Trade; maintenance and repair of motor vehicles 8,618 572,786 4,953 288,558 284,228 Transportation and storage 1,731 157,869 767 171,533 -13,664 Financial and insurance activities 675 170,219 482 611,545 -441,326 Professional, scientific and technical activities 7,723 251,681 3,771 133,140 118,541 Other activities 7,746 347,700 5,057 340,622 7,078 TOTAL 35,577 2,621,745 19,802 2,164,577 457,168 Source: AJPES - Data from the profit and loss accounts of companies for 2011. 25 Exluding data for banks, insurance companies, investment funds management companies and some other financial and investment companies that do not operate in line with the chart of accounts for companies. Data on the performance of Slovenska odškodninska družba, d.d. (the Slovene Compensation Fund), Kapitalska družba, d.d. (Pension Fund Management) and data on cooperatives and companies in liquidation or bankruptcy proceedings are not taken into account either. 3,500 0 Table 13: Performance of companies in 2007-2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Indicators Number of companies 48,781 51,997 53,897 55,734 57,798 Number of employees 499,465 510,754 479,894 462,643 449,235 Difference between net profit and net loss, in EUR thousand 3,438,343 1,656,533 549,426 -256,497 457,168 Ratios Share of net sales in the foreign market in total net sales, in % 30.5 29.7 28.0 30.7 33.3 Value added per employee, in EUR 33.538 35.279 34.168 36.044 37.512 Total efficiency ratio 1.060 1.028 1.014 1.002 1.012 Net profit margin rate 0.044 0.019 0.008 -0.003 0.006 Net return on assets ratio 0.039 0.016 0.005 -0.003 0.005 Net return on equity ratio 0.103 0.046 0.015 -0.007 0.012 Equity financing rate 0.370 0.348 0.351 0.378 0.381 Long-term assets rate 0.597 0.610 0.624 0.614 0.611 Equity to long-term assets ratio 0.617 0.568 0.559 0.610 0.617 Long-term financing to long-term assets and inventories ratio 0.937 0.888 0.899 0.904 0.920 Source: AJPES - data from the balance sheets and profit and loss accounts of companies for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011; calculations by IMAD. Note: As of 1 January 2010, the revised Slovenian Accounting Standards entered into force (OG RS Nos. 1/2010 and 90/2010). Table 14: Profit and loss accounts of companies in 2010 In EUR m Index 2011 2010 11/10 1 Positive diff. betw. oper. revenues and expenses 2,310 2,202 104.9 2 Negative diff. betw. financial revenues and expenses -1,621 -1,625 99.8 3 Positive diff. betw. other revenues and expenses 225 196 115.0 4 Positive difference between total revenues and expenses (1+2+3) 914 773 118.2 5 Income tax 513 514 99.8 6 Deferred taxes -56 -85 66.5 7 Positive diff. betw. net profit and net loss (4-5-6) 457 344 132.9 Source: AJPES - Data from the profit and loss accounts of companies for 2011. and the largest share of net sales in the foreign market in total net sales, the highest value added per employee and the highest equity financing rate. The positive difference between net profit and net loss was 16.8% lower in 2011 than in 2009 (the first year after the beginning of the economic and financial crisis) and as much as 86.7% smaller than in 2007 (the last year before the crisis). Although the number of companies has increased every year since 2008, the number of employees has declined during each of these years. In 2011, companies employed 61,519 (12.0%) fewer workers than in 2008. The number of workers dropped most notably in manufacturing (by 32,497), construction (by 17,556), wholesale and retail trade, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles (by 6,376) and transportation and storage (by 4,430). Farm tourism Farm tourism is one of the most frequent non-agricultural activities in rural areas and a great opportunity for further development of the countryside. Rural tourism contributes to the development of both tourism and the core activity of agricultural holdings, which is food production. Creating new jobs, it is an additional source of income and improves socio-economic conditions in the rural area as a whole. There are various forms of farm tourism, such as visits to farms with accommodation facilities, where tourists can spend their holidays, excursion farms providing food and drinks but no beds, wineries or 'osmicas',26 which only offer wine and a limited selection of cold food, or farms that do not offer accommodation and food services but arrange farm tours and hands-on-participation in various core and other on-farm activities, provide picnic areas, riding, etc. The number of registered tourist farms in Slovenia is growing rapidly, particularly the share of those without accommodation facilities. At the end of 2011, the register of supplementary on-farm activities included 1,448 tourist farms, 19.4% more than a year earlier and as much as 142.5% more than five years before.27 Particularly the number of registered tourist farms without accommodation facilities has been growing rapidly in the last few years: in 2011 this group accounted for as much as a third of all registered tourist farms. The number of excursion farms was only slightly lower, but this is the group with the slowest growth. Only a quarter of all 26 Osmica (eighter) refers to the permission for wine-growing farmers to sell their surplus wine tax-free for eight days in a year. 27 The entry into the register of supplementary activities does not necessarily mean that a farm is actually carrying out the activity. It can start doing so at a later time. Registration is also one of the prerequisites for financial aid for starting or expanding an activity. The register is kept by the Ministry of Agriculture and the Environment. Figure 34: Registered tourist farms and their structure in 2007-2011, Slovenia 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 ju 800 äE z 600 200 ■ Dairy cottage ■ Osmica ^Winery ■ Farm with accommodation ■ Excursion farm ■ Tourist farm without accommodation 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Ministry of Agriculture and the Environment. registered tourist farms offer accommodation, which is a more demanding category of tourism, but in the last five-year period their number nearly doubled. Tourist farms with accommodation facilities account for a modest share of total tourist accommodations, but they represent the fastest-growing category. According to SORS, 310 tourist farms with accommodation facilities operated in Slovenia last year, which is nearly a third more than three years before.28 In the past three-year period, the number of tourist arrivals in these facilities increased by as much as 42.7%; the number of their overnight stays grew somewhat less, by a third. The growth of arrivals and overnight stays in this category was the highest among all tourist accommodation categories and far above average (on average, the number of arrivals rose by 4.4% and the number of overnight stays by 0.8%).29 The average number of overnight stays per arrival (which was also dropping in other accommodation categories over the past three years) declined from 2.6 to 2.4 (which is 0.5 less than the average of all overnight stays combined). Foreign tourists made more arrivals and overnight stays than domestic guests. They also stayed somewhat longer. In 2011, they accounted for 57.1% of arrivals and 59.7% of overnight stays,30 which are similar shares as in tourist-related activities as a whole. In the past three years, foreign tourist arrivals rose by 38.0% and foreign tourist overnight stays by 28.0%. Foreign tourists came from a number of countries, the most (as in other tourist-related activities) from Italy, Germany and Austria. Even higher growth rates were recorded for domestic tourists; in the past three years, their arrivals increased by half and their overnight stays by 40.6%. Figure 35: Arrivals and overnight stays on tourist farms and in all accommodation facilities combined, Slovenia -Arrivals, accommodation facilities, total -----Arrivals, farms with accommodation facilities -Overnight stays, accommodation activities, total -----Overnight stays, farms with accommodation facilities 30 J= 20 10 2008 2009 2010 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 2011 Farm tourism is supported by financial incentives. The Common Agricultural Policy allocates financial support for the establishment or development of tourism-related activities and a number of other supplementary activities on farmhouses.31 In 2007-2013, EUR 31.6 m of public funding has been allocated for the measure "Diversification into non-agricultural activities" within the Rural Development Programme of the Republic of Table 15: Basic data on tourist farms with accommodation in Slovenia 2008 2009 2010 2011 Share in total accommodation facilities 2011 Growth 11/08 Number of accommodation facilities 236 262 303 310 .. 31.4 Number of rooms 1,181 1,283 1,509 1,484 3.5 25.7 Number of beds 3,379 3,738 4,342 4,411 3.7 30.5 Number of tourist arrivals, in thousand 27.3 31.6 34.8 38.9 1.2 42.7 Number of tourist overnight stays, in thousand 71.3 81.3 83.1 94.7 1.0 32.8 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 28 Comparable data are available for 2008-2011. 29 The statistics of accommodation facilities classifies accommodation facilities into 14 groups, with hotels, tourist campsites, apartments and tourist settlements, company vacation facilities, private accommodation (rooms, apartments and houses) accounting for the largest shares. 30 For more on the movements of tourist arrivals and overnight stays in 2011 see Slovenian Economic Mirror, April 2012. 31 In addition to tourism, the most frequent supplementary on-farm activities are processing and marketing of agricultural and forestry products, services with agricultural and forestry mechanisation, production and sale of energy from renewable sources, fish farming, etc. 0 40 0 Slovenia (of which 75% from the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development and 25% from national funds). The maximum aid rate amounts up to 50% of the recognised investment value. By the end of 2011, EUR 11.5 m was disbursed. This is relatively little, but this low value is primarily a result of the long-term nature of these investments, which typically take two or more years to complete. More than half of total funds (57%) were spent on investments in tourism and accommodation and food service activities on farms. Although much fewer projects were supported than planned (from the targeted 200 projects, 69 were granted financial aid by the end of 2011), but the growth of the number of tourists on farms has already exceeded the targeted 20% increase by 10 p.p.32 Agro-tourism has great potential for future development. In view of its cultural and natural heritage, cuisine and numerous possibilities for leisure activities, the countryside offers great opportunities for tourism. At the same time, farm tourism also plays a significant role in the preservation of populated rural areas where farming alone does not provide enough income to live on. It is generally younger farmers that are more motivated in a longer-term development of their holdings and starting agro-tourism activities. Transfer of farms to younger transferees is therefore another important factor of development encouraged by the common agricultural policy. However, the decisions on new investments are significantly affected by tight economic conditions, which is reflected in two ways: While farmers have become much more cautions because of the unfavourable situation or unemployment of other family members, this can also be their motivation for a new beginning, i.e. the establishment or development of tourism-related activities on their farms. Tourism, which could turn into one of the fastest-growing sectors of the Slovenian economy, could thus also become a promising supplementary activity in the countryside and on farms. 32 Source: European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development. Progress report on the implementation of the Rural Development Programme of the Republic of Slovenia 2007-2013 for 2011, proposal for the monitoring commitee. X "O C o a a (U "5 u (U MAIN INDICATORS 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Spring forecast 2012 GDP (real growth rates, in %) 6.9 3.6 -8.0 1.4 -0.2 -0.9 1.2 2.2 GDP in EUR million (current prices and current exchange rate) 34,562 37,280 35,311 35,416 35,639 35,641 36,589 38,059 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices and current exchange rate) 17,120 18,437 17,295 17,286 17,364 17,428 17,860 18,551 GDP per capita (PPS)1 22,100 22,700 20,500 20,700 GDP per capita (PPS EU27=100)' 88 91 87 85 Gross national income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate) 33,828 36,232 34,593 34,894 35,050 34,841 35,774 37,222 Gross national disposable income (current prices and current fixed exchange rate) 33,601 35,871 34,344 34,940 35,165 34,884 35,860 37,236 Rate of registered unemployment 7.7 6.7 9.1 10.7 11.8 12.9 13.5 13.3 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 4.9 4.4 5.9 7.3 8.1 8.8 9.3 9.1 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 3.4 1.0 -6.3 4.0 1.6 1.4 2.4 2.5 Inflation,2 year average 3.6 5.7 0.9 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.9 Inflation,2 end of the year 5.6 2.1 1.8 1.9 2.0 2 1.9 2.0 INTERNATIONAL TRADE - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS Exports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 13.7 2.9 -17.2 9.5 6.8 1.4 5.4 6.1 Exports of goods 13.9 0.5 -18.1 11.0 7.7 1.3 5.8 6.5 Exports of services 13.2 14.3 -13.7 4.1 3.6 1.7 3.7 4.3 Imports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 16.7 3.7 -19.6 7.2 4.7 -1.6 4.9 5.5 Imports of goods 16.2 3.0 -20.8 8.0 5.7 -2.0 5.0 5.6 Imports of services 19.7 8.2 -12.0 2.6 -1.4 0.7 4.3 4.6 Current account balance, in EUR million -1646 -2574 -456 -297 -168 226 423 588 As a per cent share relative to GDP -4.8 -6.9 -1.3 -0.8 -0.5 0.6 1.2 1.5 Gross external debt, in EUR million 34,783 39,234 40,294 40,699 41,444 42,7875 As a per cent share relative to GDP 100.6 105.2 114.1 114.9 116.3 Ratio of USD to EUR 1.371 1.471 1.393 1.327 1.392 1.320 1.322 1.322 DOMESTIC DEMAND - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) 6.1 3.7 -0.1 -0.7 -0.3 -1.2 0.2 1.5 As a % of GDP4 52.4 53.2 55.8 56.0 56.8 57.1 56.6 56.2 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) 0.6 6.1 2.9 1.5 -0.9 -3.5 -0.7 0.3 As a % of GDP4 17.3 18.1 20.3 20.8 20.6 19.8 19.3 19.0 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) 13.3 7.8 -23.3 -8.3 -10.7 -1.5 4.0 3.0 As a % of GDP4 27.8 28.8 23.4 21.6 19.5 19.4 20.0 20.3 Sources of data: SORS, BS, Eurostat, calculations and forecasts by IMAD (Spring Forecast, March 2012). Notes: 1Measured in purchasing power standard. ^Consumer price index. 3Balance of payments statistics (exports F.O.B., imports F.O.B.); real growth rates are adjusted for inter currency changes and changes in prices on foreign markets. 4Shares GDP are calculated for GDP in current prices at fixed exchange rate (EUR=239.64). 5End March 2012. PRODUCTION 2009 2010 2011 2010 2011 2012 2010 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 3 4 5 6 7 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D -17.4 6.2 1.2 -0.4 10.7 7.2 7.4 7.7 2.7 -0.9 -3.9 0.7 8.1 8.5 14.1 9.6 6.3 B Mining and quarrying -2.9 11.0 -8.0 -7.2 11.9 23.7 15.7 -5.6 -9.2 -9.0 -7.7 -9.0 0.2 9.4 19.0 7.4 15.9 C Manufacturing -18.7 6.6 1.0 -0.1 12.0 7.3 7.1 8.1 2.8 -1.4 -4.7 0.2 9.0 9.7 15.2 11.0 7.4 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 -6.6 1.8 5.0 -2.8 -0.5 3.6 7.0 6.9 3.8 5.1 4.0 7.8 1.9 -2.1 3.1 -2.3 -3.6 CONSTRUCTION,2 real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total -21.0 -17.0 -25.6 -18.9 -16.8 -16.4 -16.2 -25.3 -31.1 -25.4 -20.1 -19.9 -19.8 -17.9 -15.5 -17.2 -17.4 Buildings -22.5 -14.0 -39.7 -7.4 -12.4 -16.5 -19.2 -41.5 -46.5 -34.3 -35.9 -16.8 -5.5 -13.7 -7.5 -15.8 -11.2 Civil engineering -19.9 -19.0 -15.3 -29.3 -19.6 -16.2 -14.1 -6.3 -20.7 -20.0 -10.0 -22.2 -30.8 -20.6 -20.3 -18.0 -21.0 TRANSPORT, tonne-km in m, y-o-y growth rates, % Tonne-km in road transport -9.2 7.9 3.2 19.8 10.7 9.5 -6.3 -3.2 1.5 3.6 11.7 - - - Tonne-km in rail transport -24.2 28.2 9.7 18.8 33.9 32.2 28.2 23.3 10.8 8.5 -1.6 - - - Distributive trades, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* -13.0 3.6 3.1 -1.4 4.9 4.7 5.8 7.5 3.6 2.9 -0.5 0.5 4.2 3.1 4.2 7.3 2.4 Real turnover in retail trade -10.6 -0.1 1.4 -4.7 0.3 2.0 1.8 3.4 0.4 2.2 0.3 2.5 -0.5 -1.7 -1.0 3.6 1.8 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles -21.7 12.1 6.6 6.3 15.4 11.8 15.0 15.8 9.9 4.4 -1.9 -3.0 14.1 14.5 16.0 15.6 3.8 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade -21.4 1.4 5.8 -7.9 4.0 5.5 3.7 12.2 3.8 4.5 3.6 2.8 -0.9 -3.4 5.0 10.8 3.1 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, %, new methodology from 2009 onwards Total, overnight stays -3.4 -1.5 5.3 -0.4 -2.4 -2.2 0.4 3.1 6.6 6.6 3.1 0.7 0.1 -1.7 -3.0 -2.5 -1.7 Domestic tourists, overnight stays 2.8 -4.2 0.5 1.3 -3.0 -9.6 -0.3 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.4 -0.5 1.1 2.1 -7.2 -3.3 -9.0 Foreign tourists, overnight stays -8.0 0.7 9.1 -2.1 -2.0 3.2 1.0 6.5 11.3 10.2 5.5 2.0 -1.0 -4.6 -0.1 -1.8 4.3 Nominal turnover market services (without distributive trades) -7.8 2.8 3.7 0.0 1.5 4.2 5.4 5.7 4.7 4.8 -0.4 -0.9 1.1 -1.4 2.3 3.6 5.6 AGRICULTURE, y-o-y growth rates, % Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EUR m 449.3 454.5 478.9 94.6 106.7 115.6 137.5 100.4 113.3 125.7 139.5 108.4 36.4 35.5 36.0 35.1 37.4 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**) Sentiment indicator -23 -9 -7 -12 -9 -6 -8 -7 -4 -6 -10 -12 -15 -12 -9 -6 -5 Confidence indicator - in manufacturing -23 -1 0 -7 -1 3 0 3 4 -1 -7 -5 -6 -2 -1 1 6 - in construction -50 -57 -46 -57 -60 -56 -53 -52 -46 -44 -43 -40 -61 -62 -58 -59 -60 - in services -13 -3 1 -1 -5 -2 -3 1 4 3 -4 -7 -12 -9 -4 -3 -1 - in retail trade -12 7 8 -2 8 11 10 6 13 0 12 7 -3 3 3 17 11 Consumer confidence indicator -30 -25 -25 -25 -23 -27 -26 -26 -25 -25 -24 -26 -26 -23 -23 -22 -27 Source of data: SORS. Notes: 'Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. "Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels. »»Seasonally adjusted data. 2010 2011 2012 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 12.4 4.0 4.8 4.3 13.8 12.8 5.5 5.5 2.4 3.4 2.2 -2.0 -3.0 1.7 -3.0 -0.4 -8.7 1.2 3.9 -2.2 37.4 19.2 20.7 -2.5 39.7 -6.4 -1.2 -8.4 -4.7 -22.1 0.7 -8.3 -17.0 -1.4 -5.8 -2.3 -16.0 7.4 -10.2 -20.9 13.1 3.0 4.8 5.0 12.4 13.6 5.5 5.9 2.2 4.0 2.1 -2.5 -4.1 1.9 -3.7 -1.7 -9.0 1.1 2.7 -2.7 - - 1.2 13.6 2.2 0.6 17.4 11.0 6.3 3.6 5.7 3.2 2.4 4.4 11.8 -0.4 4.7 13.1 -4.0 1.9 16.2 5.5 - - -13.0 -18.7 -18.0 -17.5 -12.2 -20.9 -23.6 -29.7 -27.0 -29.3 -36.2 -27.0 -31.2 -17.5 -25.4 -9.6 -24.6 -24.0 -27.1 -10.8 -17.8 -20.3 -17.4 -28.1 -12.4 -25.9 -41.2 -53.1 -37.9 -48.0 -52.8 -36.0 -36.7 -30.0 -33.3 -28.6 -44.5 -31.2 -31.5 15.9 -10.0 -17.6 -18.3 -10.3 -12.1 -15.4 2.7 -5.2 -19.0 -16.6 -25.9 -21.2 -28.0 -9.7 -21.0 0.7 -7.0 -17.2 -23.3 -24.6 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 5.0 6.8 4.2 9.0 4.1 8.7 9.8 3.9 3.4 6.0 1.4 0.0 6.3 2.4 0.7 -0.4 -1.8 2.6 1.1 -2.2 1.0 3.1 1.3 3.6 0.4 4.0 5.5 0.6 0.3 1.8 -0.9 -1.1 5.6 2.1 0.5 1.4 -1.1 4.0 3.6 -0.2 16.2 15.3 10.7 20.2 14.1 19.2 18.3 9.8 9.8 14.0 5.9 2.2 8.0 3.0 1.3 -3.6 -3.5 -0.1 -3.4 -5.4 7.9 5.6 1.1 4.8 5.3 11.2 15.4 10.4 4.2 6.2 1.1 -0.3 8.5 5.7 5.8 5.8 -0.7 8.5 4.0 -2.4 - - -3.6 -0.3 2.5 -0.8 -1.2 4.9 -1.9 6.7 13.6 -4.2 10.6 4.1 7.0 9.8 1.9 7.0 1.2 0.2 -0.3 2.4 -11.1 -7.9 -3.0 -0.5 3.2 0.1 -2.0 2.7 9.3 -3.0 -3,4 -3.7 2.1 7.3 -2.9 8.6 -3.3 -0.3 -3.3 2.8 - - 1.6 4.4 7.0 -1.1 -5.4 8.6 -1.7 11.0 17.2 -5.0 21.6 9.7 10.0 11.2 5.5 5.2 5.8 0.6 4.5 1.9 - - 4.8 2.2 6.8 4.5 4.9 7.2 4.9 5.2 7.0 0.5 6.8 2.1 4.7 7.5 -1.5 0.4 -0.1 0.6 -3.3 0.0 - - 36.2 42.1 45.7 44.1 47.7 32.9 30.5 36.9 36.9 39.6 36.8 42.2 39.8 43.7 48.9 44.0 46.7 34.3 35.1 39.0 -7 -7 -7 -8 -9 -7 -7 -6 -4 -3 -5 -5 -7 -6 -10 -10 -11 -12 -12 -12 -16 -14 1 1 3 -1 -1 3 4 3 6 4 1 1 -2 -2 -8 -7 -5 -3 -5 -8 -9 -10 -56 -51 -50 -54 -56 -55 -50 -51 -49 -44 -45 -46 -42 -43 -43 -46 -41 -42 -39 -40 -44 -43 -2 -2 -5 -2 -1 1 -1 4 5 3 3 3 5 2 -1 -3 -9 -10 -8 -4 -7 -6 13 10 12 8 11 7 12 0 10 16 12 -1 -11 13 12 13 10 7 8 7 9 3 -27 -27 -26 -24 -27 -26 -28 -25 -26 -25 -23 -24 -27 -23 -26 -26 -20 -26 -26 -26 -39 -33 LABOUR MARKET 2009 2010 2011 2010 2011 2012 2010 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 4 5 6 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 944.5 935.5 934.7 935.8 937.8 933.8 934.8 936.8 937.5 931.1 933.3 926.6 938.6 937.3 937.5 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)' 858.2 835.0 824.0 836.3 839.2 835.4 829.3 821.9 828.4 823.9 821.7 812.7 839.3 838.9 839.3 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 37.9 33.4 38.8 31.9 34.6 34.0 33.3 38.0 40.1 38.8 38.0 35.2 34.6 34.6 34.7 In industry, construction 306.9 287.3 272.9 290.9 289.2 287.0 281.9 273.7 274.2 272.7 271.0 265.4 289.9 289.2 288.6 Of which: in manufacturing 199.8 188.6 184.8 190.0 189.4 188.1 186.8 184.1 184.7 184.4 186.2 184.6 189.7 189.4 189.0 in construction 86.8 78.5 67.8 80.9 79.6 78.6 75.0 69.7 69.3 67.9 64.4 60.5 80.1 79.5 79.3 In services 513.4 514.3 512.3 513.5 515.3 514.3 514.1 510.2 514.1 512.4 512.7 512.1 514.7 515.1 516.1 Of which: in public administration 51.5 52.0 51.4 51.8 52.3 52.1 51.8 51.2 51.5 51.4 51.3 50.9 52.3 52.3 52.4 in education, health-services, social work 113.8 116.7 118.8 115.9 116.8 116.3 118.0 117.8 118.8 118.5 120.1 120.7 116.7 116.8 116.9 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 767.4 747.2 729.1 750.1 751.0 747.0 740.6 728.1 731.9 728.9 727.4 720.9 750.9 750.8 751.3 In enterprises and organisations 699.4 685.7 671.8 687.2 688.7 685.7 681.3 671.4 673.9 671.3 670.7 666.4 688.5 688.6 689.1 By those self-employed 67.9 61.5 57.2 62.9 62.3 61.4 59.3 56.7 58.0 57.6 56.6 54.5 62.4 62.2 62.1 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 90.8 87.8 94.9 86.2 88.1 88.3 88.7 93.8 96.5 95.0 94.4 91.8 88.4 88.0 88.1 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 86.4 100.5 110.7 99.4 98.6 98.4 105.5 114.9 109.1 107.2 111.6 114.0 99.3 98.4 98.2 Female 42.4 47.9 52.1 47.0 46.8 47.8 50.2 52.9 50.9 51.1 53.3 53.2 47.0 46.7 46.8 By age: under 26 13.3 13.9 12.9 14.7 13.5 12.4 15.1 14.5 12.6 11.3 13.4 12.7 14.1 13.4 13.0 aged over 50 26.2 31.4 39.0 29.6 30.3 31.1 34.5 40.1 39.1 38.7 38.2 39.2 30.1 30.3 30.5 Unskilled 34.1 37.5 39.5 38.2 37.1 36.6 38.2 41.6 39.2 38.1 39.3 41.0 37.6 37.1 36.7 For more than 1 year 31.5 42.8 50.2 38.1 41.8 44.0 47.2 48.7 48.6 49.6 53.8 57.2 40.6 41.8 42.9 Those receiving benefits 27.4 30.0 36.3 31.6 29.3 29.3 29.7 39.7 36.4 34.9 34.4 37.8 29.9 29.2 28.9 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 9.1 10.7 11.8 10.6 10.5 10.5 11.3 12.3 12.2 11.5 12.0 12.3 10.6 10.5 10.5 Male 8.3 10.1 11.4 10.1 9.9 9.7 10.7 12.0 11.9 10.9 11.3 11.9 10.0 9.9 9.8 Female 10.2 11.6 12.4 11.3 11.3 11.5 12.1 12.6 12.5 12.3 12.7 12.7 11.3 11.2 11.3 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE 30.4 13.3 2.7 2.2 -0.7 -0.3 12.1 3.9 -6.9 0.0 5.7 -1.9 0.4 -0.9 -0.2 New unemployed first-job seekers 17.0 16.8 14.4 2.9 2.4 2.8 8.7 3.2 2.0 2.7 6.5 2.4 0.9 0.7 0.8 Redundancies 90.5 83.5 82.2 19.9 16.6 18.5 28.6 24.4 16.8 18.7 22.3 22.6 5.7 5.5 5.4 Registered unemployed who found employment 48.6 57.0 61.0 14.2 12.8 15.5 14.5 17.5 17.2 13.4 12.9 17.3 3.9 4.7 4.2 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 28.5 29.9 32.8 6.3 6.9 6.0 10.7 6.2 8.5 8.0 10.2 9.6 2.4 2.4 2.1 REGISTERED VACANCIES3 161.3 174.6 194.5 37.9 44.3 45.9 46.5 45.5 52.9 52.3 43.8 44.9 14.5 13.7 16.1 For a fixed term, in % 78.1 80.7 81.7 78.9 81.2 82.2 80.0 81.5 81.0 82.8 81.4 82.9 82.2 81.8 79.8 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 54.9 41.6 35.6 44.1 42.1 40.7 39.4 38.0 35.5 34.7 34.3 34.2 42.9 42.1 41.4 As % of labour force 5.8 4.4 3.8 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.1 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 NEW JOBS 111.4 104.1 118.3 23.6 25.1 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.3 26.3 37.4 30.8 8.9 7.8 8.4 Sources of data: SORS, PDII, ESS. Notes: "In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. Data for previous years dating back to January 2000 have also been calculated according to the new methodology. ^Estimated by IMAD, based on data by PDII and ESS; ^According to ESS. 2010 2011 2012 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 934.3 933.0 934.1 938.2 937.2 929.0 936.0 937.3 937.1 938.4 937.7 936.3 931.7 930.0 931.5 935.3 934.5 930.1 927.5 927.1 925.4 835.9 834.0 836.2 835.5 833.4 819.0 820.9 821.7 823.1 826.9 829.0 829.2 824.2 823.0 824.5 824.4 823.4 817.3 811.6 812.0 814.5 34.1 34.0 34.0 33.3 33.3 33.1 38.0 38.0 38.1 40.1 40.1 40.1 38.9 38.8 38.8 38.1 38.1 37.9 35.2 35.1 35.3 287.9 286.5 286.6 285.8 283.9 276.0 274.4 273.6 273.1 273.5 274.7 274.4 272.6 272.8 272.7 273.5 272.1 267.4 265.4 264.7 266.1 188.5 187.7 188.1 188.4 187.9 184.1 183.9 184.3 184.3 184.3 185.1 184.6 183.8 184.0 185.2 186.8 186.6 185.1 184.6 184.6 184.6 79.1 78.6 78.2 77.1 75.8 72.1 70.7 69.5 68.9 69.1 69.4 69.4 68.4 68.4 67.0 66.2 65.0 62.1 60.7 59.9 61.0 514.0 513.4 515.7 516.4 516.1 509.9 508.5 510.1 511.9 513.3 514.3 514.7 512.7 511.4 513.1 512.8 513.2 512.0 510.9 512.2 513.1 52.2 52.1 52.1 52.0 52.0 51.5 51.2 51.2 51.2 51.5 51.6 51.6 51.4 51.5 51.2 51.3 51.4 51.2 50.8 50.9 50.9 115.8 115.6 117.5 117.9 118.5 117.7 117.3 117.8 118.3 118.6 118.9 119.0 118.2 118.1 119.3 119.8 120.2 120.3 119.9 120.8 121.5 748.1 745.7 747.3 746.8 744.6 730.5 727.3 727.8 729.0 730.5 732.5 732.6 729.0 728.1 729.7 730.1 729.0 723.0 719.6 720.3 722.7 686.3 684.4 686.4 686.2 684.8 673.0 670.7 671.3 672.1 672.9 674.3 674.4 671.1 670.5 672.2 672.7 671.9 667.6 665.2 666.1 667.9 61.8 61.3 61.0 60.5 59.8 57.6 56.6 56.6 56.9 57.6 58.2 58.2 57.9 57.5 57.4 57.4 57.0 55.5 54.5 54.2 54.8 87.8 88.3 88.9 88.8 88.8 88.5 93.5 93.8 94.1 96.4 96.5 96.6 95.1 95.0 94.8 94.3 94.5 94.3 91.9 91.8 91.8 98.4 99.0 97.9 102.7 103.8 110.0 115.1 115.6 113.9 111.6 108.6 107.1 107.6 107.0 107.0 110.9 111.1 112.8 116.0 115.0 110.9 47.5 48.1 47.7 49.8 49.5 51.2 53.2 53.2 52.4 51.8 50.7 50.2 50.9 51.0 51.3 53.5 53.4 53.2 54.2 53.4 52.0 12.6 12.5 12.2 15.7 15.1 14.4 14.7 14.7 14.1 13.4 12.5 11.9 11.5 11.1 11.2 13.6 13.5 13.2 13.2 12.9 12.0 30.9 31.1 31.3 31.7 33.0 38.9 40.2 40.2 39.9 39.4 39.1 38.8 38.9 38.8 38.4 38.2 37.9 38.4 39.6 39.4 38.6 36.4 36.6 36.7 37.2 37.5 39.9 41.6 41.9 41.2 40.1 39.1 38.4 38.1 37.9 38.3 38.7 39.0 40.1 41.4 41.6 40.0 43.2 44.1 44.6 46.7 47.5 47.4 48.6 49.0 48.7 48.8 48.6 48.5 48.8 49.6 50.4 51.8 52.9 56.7 58.0 57.3 56.3 29.0 29.4 29.4 28.2 29.7 31.2 39.2 40.2 39.8 37.5 36.4 35.3 35.2 35.1 34.4 33.9 33.7 35.5 38.5 38.3 36.7 10.5 10.6 10.5 10.9 11.1 11.8 12.3 12.3 12.2 11.9 11.6 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.9 11.9 12.1 12.5 12.4 12.0 9.8 9.8 9.7 10.1 10.4 11.4 12.0 12.0 11.9 11.5 11.2 11.0 11.0 10.9 10.8 11.1 11.2 11.6 12.1 12.1 11.6 11.5 11.6 11.5 12.0 11.9 12.4 12.7 12.7 12.5 12.3 12.1 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.7 12.7 12.7 13.0 12.8 12.5 0.2 0.6 -1.1 4.8 1.1 6.2 5.1 0.5 -1.7 -2.4 -2.9 -1.6 0.5 -0.6 0.1 3.9 0.2 1.7 3.2 -0.9 -4.2 0.7 0.8 1.4 6.3 1.4 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.4 4.4 1.3 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 6.1 5.7 6.7 7.1 8.2 13.2 11.8 6.0 6.6 5.4 5.6 5.7 6.4 5.7 6.6 6.9 7.1 8.2 10.6 6.1 5.9 4.8 4.0 6.8 4.8 4.9 4.7 5.8 4.9 6.8 6.0 6.3 4.9 4.0 4.1 5.4 4.4 4.5 4.0 5.0 5.2 7.1 1.8 1.8 2.4 3.8 3.6 3.3 2.2 1.6 2.4 2.5 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.9 2.5 3.1 3.8 3.3 3.3 2.6 3.7 15.2 14.9 15.8 17.4 14.7 14.3 15.2 14.3 16.0 15.7 17.8 19.3 15.5 17.2 19.5 15.8 14.3 13.6 15.6 13.1 16.2 81.1 83.0 82.6 81.4 80.4 78.1 80.9 81.7 81.8 81.5 82.1 79.3 80.9 83.5 83.9 84.0 81.6 78.5 80.3 82.7 85.7 40.7 40.8 40.7 40.2 39.4 38.5 38.3 38.1 37.7 37.4 34.6 34.5 34.5 34.7 34.9 34.5 34.3 34.2 34.2 34.2 34.2 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 8.2 6.6 13.0 10.9 8.8 7.8 10.0 7.6 9.6 9.4 9.2 8.7 7.6 6.5 12.3 11.9 12.6 12.8 11.8 8.4 10.6 WAGES AND INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS 2009 2010 2011 2010 2011 2012 2010 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 5 6 7 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, y-o-y growth rates, % Activity - Total 3.4 3.9 2.0 3.7 4.3 4.2 3.3 3.1 2.0 1.7 1.1 1.6 4.2 4.4 4.0 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing -0.2 5.8 3.1 3.3 5.2 7.4 6.9 7.1 4.2 1.1 0.4 0.0 4.3 5.6 7.1 B Mining and quarrying 0.9 4.0 3.8 3.4 4.7 1.9 6.0 3.6 0.3 5.8 5.9 8.5 14.0 -0.8 0.8 C Manufacturing 0.8 9.0 3.9 10.1 10.0 8.7 6.8 5.4 3.6 3.5 3.1 3.4 10.1 9.4 8.1 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 3.8 3.7 2.3 4.7 2.4 3.6 4.4 1.6 5.2 3.5 -0.5 5.6 0.8 3.0 1.6 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 2.0 2.2 -0.1 2.7 3.0 2.0 1.3 -0.1 1.5 1.1 -2.7 2.1 3.6 2.0 1.6 F Constrution 1.0 4.4 2.0 2.9 5.8 4.1 5.2 5.5 1.5 0.3 0.5 -0.2 5.8 4.5 2.1 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 1.9 3.7 2.8 2.6 4.1 4.3 3.9 3.2 2.6 2.3 3.0 2.1 4.0 4.1 4.0 H Transportation and storage 0.7 2.0 2.7 1.1 1.2 2.5 3.1 2.3 3.0 3.9 1.6 2.2 1.6 0.5 1.8 I Accommodation and food service activities 1.6 4.0 2.1 2.8 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.7 2.4 2.0 -0.6 -0.4 4.2 4.6 4.0 J Information and communication 1.4 2.6 0.9 1.0 2.5 3.4 3.5 1.0 1.2 1.8 -0.2 0.3 3.1 2.1 2.9 K Financial and insurance activities -0.7 1.0 0.6 1.2 3.2 2.6 -2.6 2.3 2.4 0.8 -2.4 4.5 -0.6 7.6 5.0 L Real estate activities 1.9 3.0 2.9 2.6 5.3 2.9 1.0 4.1 2.9 3.4 1.6 1.1 3.9 8.4 4.1 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 2.1 1.6 -0.4 1.6 1.8 2.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 -0.6 -1.6 -0.5 1.5 2.1 1.7 N Administrative and support service activities 1.8 4.1 3.5 2.5 4.3 4.6 4.8 4.3 3.2 3.9 2.7 3.0 4.1 3.9 3.8 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 5.9 -0.6 0.3 -1.9 -1.1 0.4 0.3 1.2 0.6 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -0.6 -0.5 0.9 P Education 3.6 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.7 -0.1 -0.3 0.4 -0.3 1.0 1.0 0.7 Q Human health and social work activities 12.0 -0.3 -0.7 -0.4 -1.0 0.3 -0.3 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 -0.4 0.7 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 3.9 0.5 -0.7 0.7 1.4 1.2 -1.2 -0.2 -1.2 -1.0 -0.3 -0.6 1.3 0.7 0.9 S Other service activities 1.3 4.2 0.9 3.2 4.9 5.5 3.3 2.7 1.5 0.6 -1.1 0.6 3.9 4.7 6.0 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS1, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate,2 nominal 1.1 -2.1 -0.1 -1.1 -2.4 -2.5 -2.4 -1.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 -0.5 -2.3 -3.1 -2.4 Real (deflator HICP) 1.3 -1.8 -1.0 -0.9 -1.8 -2.0 -2.7 -1.8 -0.5 -1.2 -0.5 -0.9 -1.8 -2.6 -1.8 Real (deflator ULC) 6.5 -1.7 -1.3 -0.4 -1.6 -1.8 -2.9 -2.2 -1.0 -1.2 -0.7 USD/EUR 1.3933 1.3268 1.3917 1.3842 1.2727 1.2910 1.3593 1.3669 1.4393 1.4126 1.3480 1.3110 1.2565 1.2209 1.2770 Sources of data: SORS, AP, BS, ECB, OECD Main Economic Indicators; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1 Change in the source for effective exchange rate series as of April 2012; the new source ECB, before that own calculations (IMAD). ^Harmonised effective exchange rate - 20 group of trading partners and 17 Euro area countries; a rise in the value indicates appreciation of national currency and vice versa. 2010 2011 2012 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 5.1 3.6 2.7 4.1 3.1 3.3 4.3 1.7 1.4 2.8 2.0 1.3 2.5 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.8 2.2 2.0 0.7 8.6 6.6 5.6 5.9 9.3 7.7 8.0 5.7 2.5 6.8 3.4 -1.5 3.8 1.1 0.2 4.1 -3.5 2.1 0.3 -2.1 1.8 3.1 -0.4 0.8 18.6 3.4 0.4 6.8 9.0 -5.8 -1.4 6.4 4.3 6.6 9.7 2.2 6.8 10.0 11.9 3.8 11.0 7.0 5.1 8.3 6.8 5.6 10.1 1.0 1.9 5.2 3.8 1.8 5.2 3.4 2.8 4.6 1.8 4.5 3.8 1.9 6.5 2.7 -3.4 13.0 1.6 -0.2 1.2 3.7 1.6 7.2 6.8 3.6 4.7 2.2 3.7 -8.1 5.6 5.5 8.0 3.6 2.9 1.5 -1.2 3.3 1.5 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 -1.1 3.4 2.3 -1.2 3.3 1.1 2.2 -7.5 -1.3 3.1 2.8 0.5 6.5 3.8 5.6 5.6 4.4 6.1 6.4 4.2 -0.5 1.6 3.4 -0.9 0.9 0.8 -0.5 2.3 -0.5 1.1 1.4 -3.1 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.5 2.9 3.8 4.3 1.5 2.2 2.4 3.3 2.0 3.2 1.7 2.4 4.3 2.4 3.3 2.2 1.0 3.4 2.3 2.6 4.0 2.7 2.7 3.4 0.8 1.5 2.0 5.4 9.6 4.0 -1.5 3.5 0.8 0.8 3.7 0.8 2.0 4.1 5.5 5.1 4.1 4.3 5.1 5.6 3.5 2.8 1.7 2.6 1.3 3.3 1.6 0.6 -1.9 -0.3 0.2 0.4 -1.7 4.3 3.1 1.1 5.9 3.3 2.1 1.4 -0.6 1.2 1.7 0.5 -0.3 2.5 3.1 1.2 -0.4 -1.3 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.5 -4.1 -4.6 1.4 5.2 1.6 0.3 2.6 9.0 -4.0 -1.7 3.2 0.9 -0.6 -6.2 0.5 1.5 8.4 3.8 3.1 1.5 0.8 2.3 -0.4 3.0 2.9 6.5 2.2 4.4 2.3 2.0 4.7 3.4 1.7 1.0 2.0 2.3 2.5 -1.5 3.9 1.3 -0.2 1.4 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 -0.3 -1.2 0.2 -0.9 0.5 -2.9 -2.3 0.0 -0.5 -1.1 5.3 4.6 5.5 5.7 3.1 5.3 4.5 3.0 2.9 2.8 3.8 3.5 3.1 5.2 2.4 3.2 2.5 2.1 5.1 2.0 -0.1 0.3 1.3 0.6 -0.9 0.5 1.0 2.2 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 -0.6 -1.3 0.2 -0.1 0.6 -0.4 -0.7 1.2 1.2 0.6 1.2 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 0.1 1.0 -0.4 0.5 0.1 -0.6 -0.5 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 -1.2 -1.4 -0.7 -0.5 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.1 -1.0 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.6 1.1 1.5 -2.2 0.0 -1.5 -0.6 -0.3 0.3 -1.6 -2.1 0.1 -0.2 -1.2 -1.4 1.6 -1.6 -0.8 -1.3 -1.9 1.3 5.9 4.5 5.4 3.7 1.0 2.5 3.8 1.7 0.0 2.4 2.0 -1.0 1.6 1.1 0.0 -1.6 -1.8 2.0 -0.4 0.0 -2.4 -2.6 -2.2 -2.4 -2.6 -2.2 -1.3 -0.4 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.9 -1.7 -2.5 -2.2 -3.0 -2.7 -2.4 -2.0 -1.0 -0.9 -0.1 -0.5 -1.7 -1.3 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.7 -0.8 -0.6 -1.3 1.2894 1.3067 1.3898 1.3661 1.3220 1.3360 1.3649 1.3999 1.4442 1.4349 1.4388 1.4264 1.4343 1.3770 1.3706 1.3556 1.3179 1.2905 1.3224 1.3201 PRICES 2009 2010 2011 2010 2011 2012 2010 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2 3 4 5 6 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 0.9 1.8 1.8 1.4 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.3 2.5 2.5 1.3 1.4 2.3 2.1 1.9 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 0.6 1.0 4.4 -1.4 0.7 2.6 2.0 3.9 5.0 3.7 5.1 3.9 -1.2 -0.7 -0.1 0.4 1.7 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 6.7 7.2 5.7 7.1 6.5 7.3 8.1 8.1 6.3 3.7 4.9 4.2 7.6 5.9 9.9 5.1 4.5 Clothing and footwear -0.6 -1.9 -1.6 -5.0 -1.9 -0.6 -0.4 -0.7 -2.4 -4.2 0.9 -2.2 -5.7 -3.6 -0.9 -2.4 -2.3 Housing, water, electricity, gas -0.3 10.2 5.6 8.3 11.3 12.0 9.0 6.8 5.4 4.8 5.4 4.9 8.4 8.9 10.7 11.6 11.7 Furnishings, household equipment 4.0 1.4 2.7 1.3 0.8 1.3 2.1 2.7 3.9 2.4 1.7 1.2 1.6 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.8 Medical, pharmaceutical products 4.0 2.1 1.6 -0.6 0.6 4.0 4.6 2.9 2.6 0.8 0.3 -0.2 -0.7 -0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 Transport -3.0 -0.3 1.0 1.2 -0.1 -1.8 -0.5 0.8 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.6 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.4 -1.5 Communications -4.1 1.4 1.2 0.0 1.4 1.3 2.8 2.7 1.6 2.3 -1.8 -1.2 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.6 Recreation and culture 3.0 0.4 -1.5 1.2 0.4 -0.2 0.1 -2.6 -1.0 -1.7 -0.8 2.6 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.6 -0.2 Education 3.4 1.6 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.6 0.8 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.4 1.1 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 Catering services 4.4 -2.5 -6.8 1.9 1.9 -2.9 -11.0 -11.0 -10.9 -6.2 2.0 2.3 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.1 1.7 Miscellaneous goods & services 3.8 1.4 2.2 2.3 2.0 0.5 0.7 1.4 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.3 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.0 HCPI 0.9 2.1 2.1 1.7 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.5 2.6 2.5 1.6 1.8 2.7 2.4 2.1 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) 1.9 0.3 1.3 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.2 2.3 2.2 -0.1 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total -1.3 2.1 4.5 -1.0 2.3 3.4 3.8 5.7 4.8 4.1 3.6 1.3 -1.2 -0.2 1.0 2.9 3.0 Domestic market -0.4 2.0 3.8 0.2 2.0 2.8 3.2 4.5 4.1 3.7 2.9 1.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 2.6 2.6 Non-domestic market -2.2 2.2 5.3 -2.1 2.6 4.0 4.4 6.9 5.5 4.6 4.4 1.6 -2.5 -0.9 1.3 3.2 3.3 euro area -3.5 2.2 6.1 -2.4 2.5 4.0 4.8 8.2 6.5 5.1 4.6 0.8 -3.1 -1.0 1.3 3.2 3.1 non-euro area 0.3 2.1 3.6 -1.6 2.7 3.8 3.5 4.0 3.1 3.5 3.8 3.4 -1.5 -0.8 1.4 3.2 3.6 Import price indices -3.3 7.4 5.4 4.0 8.8 7.8 8.9 8.9 5.5 4.5 2.9 1.9 3.2 5.4 8.3 9.4 8.7 PRICE CONTROL,1 y-o-y growth rates, % Energy prices -12.3 16.5 10.9 16.1 18.8 15.9 15.3 15.1 9.9 8.3 10.8 16.6 13.9 17.5 20.1 20.5 15.8 Oil products -12.0 17.3 11.9 21.9 20.3 13.5 14.6 15.7 10.5 9.9 11.7 16.6 18.6 22.8 22.7 22.8 15.6 Transport & communications 0.6 1.8 1.1 2.5 2.7 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.7 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 Other controlled prices 4.9 1.3 0.0 4.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 6.1 4.9 4.9 1.0 0.1 0.1 Direct control - total -6.9 14.2 2.8 14.1 16.1 14.4 12.2 7.2 1.5 0.5 2.1 11.0 12.6 15.2 16.7 17.2 14.4 Source of data: SORS, calculations and estimates IMAD. Note: 'The structure of groups varies, data published are not directly comparable to those published previously. The electricity market was liberalized on 1 July 2007. Data from July 2007 onwards are not comparable. Since July 2009, formation of prices for utility services is no longer under government control. 2010 2011 2012 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 2.1 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.4 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.9 1.7 2.2 1.3 0.9 0.9 2.1 2.7 2.7 2.0 2.3 2.9 2.3 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.9 2.2 3.7 4.1 3.9 4.2 6.3 4.6 2.9 3.8 4.4 5.6 4.8 4.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.7 5.2 8.2 8.5 8.2 8.0 8.1 7.8 8.3 8.3 6.3 6.4 6.2 5.4 2.8 3.0 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.1 3.9 4.7 5.1 -2.1 -1.7 1.9 -1.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -2.1 -2.8 -1.5 -3.0 -4.2 -4.9 -3.4 2.0 2.1 -1.5 -2.2 -3.5 -1.2 0.2 12.4 12.3 11.4 11.7 7.1 8.3 7.4 6.6 6.5 6.3 5.9 3.9 4.4 4.9 5.1 5.5 5.7 5.0 4.7 5.3 4.7 4.0 0.5 1.3 2.2 2.0 1.8 2.6 2.4 2.5 3.3 3.5 4.2 3.9 3.5 1.7 2.1 1.8 2.0 1.4 1.3 1.5 0.8 0.7 2.8 4.0 5.2 5.1 4.4 4.3 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.8 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 1.5 -1.2 -2.0 -2.1 -0.6 -1.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.4 2.0 2.5 3.3 4.1 -0.3 0.7 3.5 2.5 2.8 3.2 1.4 3.3 3.3 2.3 1.9 0.5 3.4 2.5 0.9 -1.8 -0.3 -3.3 -0.1 -1.2 -2.4 -2.6 -0.6 -0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.4 -0.9 -6.5 -0.4 -0.5 -1.1 -1.3 -1.8 -2.0 -1.2 -0.3 -0.9 -1.2 0.8 6.8 0.4 0.9 1.9 1.9 0.9 0.4 1.3 0.7 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.5 1.8 0.9 1.6 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 -11.2 -10.9 -11.0 -11.1 -11.1 -11.1 -10.9 -11.2 -10.9 -10.5 -10.2 -9.8 2.7 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.2 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.7 1.9 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.1 2.1 1.6 2.2 2.3 2.0 2.4 2.0 2.4 1.6 1.1 1.2 2.3 2.9 2.8 2.1 2.3 2.8 2.4 2.9 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 1.9 2.3 2.5 2.1 2.4 2.6 1.6 1.9 3.4 3.5 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.2 5.2 5.9 6.0 5.7 4.2 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.7 3.6 3.6 2.4 0.8 0.7 0.7 2.7 2.9 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.5 4.0 4.8 4.8 5.0 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.6 1.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 4.2 4.1 3.6 3.9 4.5 4.9 6.4 7.1 7.2 6.4 4.9 5.1 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.3 4.3 4.5 3.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 4.5 4.1 3.4 4.1 4.8 5.6 7.5 8.6 8.6 7.9 5.8 5.8 4.8 5.2 5.2 4.4 4.7 4.7 2.8 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 3.4 4.1 4.0 3.2 3.6 3.6 4.0 3.6 4.2 3.0 2.8 3.6 4.1 3.2 3.2 4.1 3.5 4.0 3.5 3.3 3.4 2.8 7.6 7.9 7.7 7.6 8.9 10.3 10.4 8.5 7.9 6.3 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.8 4.3 4.1 3.0 1.8 0.9 2.1 2.8 2.0 17.4 15.6 14.6 18.2 12.2 15.7 15.5 15.6 14.3 12.0 9.7 7.9 6.3 9.1 9.6 10.8 11.9 9.7 10.2 15.4 24.0 35.8 15.2 13.2 12.1 16.6 11.6 15.6 15.8 16.3 15.2 12.7 10.2 8.7 7.7 10.8 11.3 12.3 12.7 10.3 10.5 15.3 23.9 36.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 2.9 6.0 9.3 12.6 15.5 14.3 13.5 15.9 9.2 11.8 11.8 5.4 4.5 3.0 1.5 0.1 -1.0 1.1 1.4 2.2 2.9 1.3 2.0 12.4 18.9 27.5 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2009 2010 2011 2010 2011 2012 2010 Q^ Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 3 4 5 6 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, in EUR m Current account -456 -297 -385 -4 -118 -84 -91 -91 14 -127 -181 -153 78 -27 -87 -5 Goods1 -703 -1,205 -1,335 -190 -273 -234 -508 -311 -279 -294 -451 -301 -44 -99 -147 -27 Exports 16,167 18,386 20,687 4,205 4,695 4,640 4,847 5,018 5,339 5,115 5,216 5,157 1,649 1,468 1,566 1,661 Imports 16,870 19,591 22,022 4,394 4,968 4,874 5,355 5,329 5,618 5,409 5,667 -5,457 1,693 1,567 1,713 1,688 Services 1,165 1,308 1,433 291 356 346 315 318 400 358 358 371 107 119 125 113 Exports 4,347 4,633 4,820 981 1,129 1,348 1,176 1,049 1,183 1,377 1,211 1,093 363 373 370 386 Imports 3,182 3,325 3,387 690 773 1,001 861 732 783 1,019 853 -722 256 254 245 274 Income -766 -507 -636 -51 -158 -202 -95 -144 -139 -190 -163 -194 -11 -28 -39 -91 Receipts 666 682 899 135 194 168 185 213 237 217 231 175 53 58 72 64 Expenditure 1,432 1,188 1,535 186 353 370 280 357 376 408 394 -368 64 85 112 156 Current transfers -152 106 153 -53 -43 6 196 47 32 -1 75 -29 26 -18 -25 0 Receipts 966 1,218 1,337 263 220 274 461 374 316 308 339 282 113 57 83 80 Expenditure 1,118 1,112 1,184 317 263 268 265 328 284 309 263 -312 87 75 108 80 Capital and financial account 154 319 -150 -19 253 190 -106 112 -255 -103 96 187 -59 88 5 160 Capital account -9 8 -102 46 3 16 -56 -7 -6 -8 -82 6 55 2 -3 4 Financial account 164 311 -48 -65 251 174 -50 119 -250 -96 178 180 -114 86 8 157 Direct investment -644 334 750 -132 74 57 335 53 238 194 266 135 -23 -26 19 81 Domestic abroad -174 60 -40 -51 59 19 32 -20 24 41 -85 -22 -14 -11 29 41 Foreign in Slovenia -470 274 790 -81 15 37 303 72 214 154 351 157 -9 -15 -11 41 Portfolio investment 4,628 1,947 1,973 1,106 508 -54 388 2,592 -317 -416 114 -936 195 609 -202 100 Financial derivatives -2 -117 -137 -22 -65 -14 -15 -80 -15 -24 -19 1 -19 -11 -21 -33 Other investment -3,985 -1,872 -2,707 -1,077 -216 167 -746 -2,454 -168 117 -202 942 -271 -518 272 31 Assets -277 683 -1,507 241 -594 531 504 -1,525 -156 -348 521 -1,308 25 -24 -631 61 Commercial credits 416 -174 -128 -223 -213 30 232 -320 -88 43 238 -300 -182 -37 -88 -87 Loans -1 164 -50 -348 510 20 -18 -101 -21 50 23 -106 -343 415 25 70 Currency and deposits -613 609 -1,290 815 -885 387 292 -1,109 -48 -408 276 -911 551 -409 -554 78 Other assets -80 84 -40 -2 -6 94 -2 6 2 -33 -15 9 -1 7 -13 0 Liabilities -3,708 -2,555 -1,199 -1,319 378 -364 -1,250 -929 -12 466 -724 2,250 -296 -494 902 -30 Commercial credits -452 364 171 91 262 -63 73 200 -13 -85 68 154 112 54 127 82 Loans -2,911 -974 -1,203 -403 -189 -8 -373 -385 -297 209 -731 -179 -346 -279 328 -238 Deposits -318 -1,934 -169 -1,079 358 -305 -909 -787 334 340 -57 2,288 -133 -206 455 109 Other liabilities -27 -11 2 72 -54 12 -42 42 -36 1 -5 -13 72 -63 -8 17 International reserves2 167 19 72 62 -50 18 -11 9 12 33 19 39 4 32 -60 -23 Statistical error 302 -21 535 22 -135 -106 197 -21 241 231 85 -34 -20 -62 82 -155 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods 1,783 1,811 1,961 403 456 442 510 440 507 497 518 N/A 167 142 155 158 Intermediate goods 8,090 9,951 11,739 2,235 2,542 2,544 2,630 2,840 3,040 2,980 2,879 N/A 853 803 856 883 Consumer goods 6,144 6,481 6,777 1,533 1,663 1,620 1,664 1,699 1,738 1,583 1,757 N/A 615 513 543 607 Import of investment goods 2,288 2,293 2,474 450 612 570 661 555 611 587 720 N/A 180 213 218 180 Intermediate goods 9,823 12,117 13,805 2,711 3,064 3,032 3,311 3,438 3,516 3,424 3,428 N/A 1,010 956 1,068 1,040 Consumer goods 5,004 5,470 5,879 1,290 1,355 1,351 1,475 1,380 1,512 1,480 1,508 N/A 533 430 462 463 Sources of data: BS, SORS. Notes: 'Exports and imports (F.O.B.) include also the adjustment for exports and imports of goods by ITRS and duty-free shops reports. 2Reserve assets of the BS. 2010 2011 2012 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 3 -21 -58 -6 -41 -57 7 -19 -105 33 23 -98 89 26 -135 -19 1 -31 -151 -76 -158 82 -45 -122 -68 -155 -151 -202 -72 -118 -121 -97 -179 -2 -11 -164 -119 -83 -116 -252 -124 -83 -94 1,604 1,306 1,729 1,656 1,700 1,491 1,534 1,601 1,883 1,693 1,835 1,811 1,733 1,490 1,891 1,777 1,865 1,574 1,589 1,659 1,908 1,649 1,428 1,797 1,811 1,850 1,693 1,606 1,719 2,004 1,790 2,014 1,813 1,744 1,654 2,011 1,860 1,981 1,826 -1,713 -1,742 -2,002 88 115 143 132 87 97 110 84 124 147 123 129 78 120 160 148 121 89 137 92 143 462 448 437 394 356 426 340 316 393 399 379 404 458 457 462 415 378 418 371 319 403 374 333 295 262 269 330 230 233 269 252 256 275 380 337 302 268 257 329 -234 -228 -260 -90 -57 -56 -28 -36 -31 -55 -54 -36 -52 -41 -45 -59 -66 -65 -58 -55 -50 -68 -66 -61 65 52 51 54 52 80 62 64 88 71 85 82 77 69 71 75 75 82 58 56 61 155 108 106 81 88 110 116 117 124 123 126 128 136 135 136 133 130 132 -126 -121 -121 25 6 -25 9 43 144 -2 -17 66 26 -1 7 18 -25 6 -6 19 63 -22 -101 93 117 89 68 103 125 234 84 129 161 114 104 98 116 70 122 85 103 151 55 51 176 92 83 93 93 82 90 86 147 95 88 105 91 98 95 116 91 84 89 -77 -152 -83 142 -40 88 59 -236 71 -138 66 185 23 33 -312 13 -36 -81 -250 26 320 129 190 -133 -8 -4 27 3 4 -63 -9 1 1 -2 0 -4 -7 -4 3 -2 9 -89 -6 9 3 149 -36 61 56 -240 134 -129 64 184 25 33 -308 20 -32 -84 -248 18 409 135 181 -136 89 36 -68 74 213 47 -87 -17 156 95 93 50 16 62 116 -46 -46 358 -19 36 118 8 25 -14 -8 36 5 -61 17 24 -11 3 31 -61 37 65 -61 -5 -19 -26 -10 14 80 11 -54 82 178 43 -26 -34 132 105 90 19 78 25 51 15 -41 377 7 46 104 78 -29 -103 68 182 138 1,136 -206 1,662 -362 271 -226 72 -47 -441 226 -102 -10 211 -820 -328 -5 -4 -5 -8 -4 -4 -29 -31 -20 -5 -5 -5 -4 -4 -16 -2 -8 -8 -4 7 -2 -9 -34 211 -97 -615 -34 -1,159 301 -1,597 284 -326 -126 -52 -58 228 -411 130 79 14 900 27 697 -203 37 -168 -624 1,296 -1,041 350 -835 78 -83 -151 -495 -16 163 -353 308 566 -547 173 -934 -6 195 -158 -102 -68 402 -217 29 -132 -83 31 -36 -39 200 -119 -135 41 331 -33 -100 -167 127 18 -124 -33 -3 18 -51 4 -54 14 -16 -19 -19 27 42 -48 22 48 22 16 -144 568 -488 308 -20 -547 858 -764 324 -670 136 -94 -90 -422 -225 240 -180 242 213 -533 240 -618 9 73 12 -13 -5 17 -9 -7 22 11 -3 -6 -14 -19 0 9 3 -27 -3 17 -4 -705 168 173 71 8 -1,330 -118 -49 -762 206 -244 26 442 -42 65 -58 -179 -487 561 726 962 -30 -182 149 135 61 -123 -42 60 181 143 9 -164 -10 -262 188 -22 144 -54 -93 152 95 -40 -21 53 -240 242 -375 -109 -86 -189 -213 -226 142 243 -41 7 -201 -431 -99 62 -234 -7 -607 348 -46 180 -288 -801 3 -8 -781 274 -26 86 202 237 -99 158 103 -319 550 833 905 -28 23 17 -5 -7 -30 30 -15 27 2 0 -38 7 25 -31 7 4 -16 43 -25 -31 -3 -4 25 19 -16 -13 10 17 -18 13 1 -2 -12 15 29 -15 44 -10 -68 59 48 -121 97 -82 -18 293 -79 157 39 -218 -47 65 223 -40 170 100 249 4 -169 -53 -32 51 159 125 159 164 170 176 126 141 173 153 179 174 173 153 170 168 176 175 141 151 N/A 878 713 952 920 927 783 888 904 1,049 977 1,042 1,021 997 894 1,089 1,014 1,050 816 937 965 N/A 554 458 607 558 591 515 509 544 646 548 593 597 545 426 612 578 618 562 493 524 N/A 179 148 243 188 226 247 148 173 234 183 225 204 204 165 218 202 223 296 165 151 N/A 1,039 888 1,106 1,153 1,128 1,030 1,033 1,106 1,300 1,130 1,241 1,146 1,108 1,048 1,267 1,189 1,237 1,002 1,142 1,158 N/A 452 420 479 496 536 443 422 452 506 471 554 487 468 466 545 497 526 485 436 451 N/A MONETARY INDICATORS AND INTEREST RATES 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 12 1 |2|3|4|5|6|7|8|9|10 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 160 138 102 160 176 177 140 140 142 141 140 142 140 139 Central government (S. 1311) 3,497 3,419 4,299 3,497 3,334 3,382 2,884 2,897 3,001 3,120 3,130 3,326 3,422 3,447 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 376 526 584 376 390 395 390 392 395 401 415 421 417 434 Households (S. 14, 15) 8,413 9,282 9,454 8,413 8,452 8,480 8,601 8,647 8,701 8,897 8,928 9,062 9,119 9,149 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 21,704 21,646 20,867 21,704 21,792 21,896 21,950 22,062 21,997 22,015 22,024 21,815 21,862 21,848 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 2,680 2,497 2,226 2,680 2,684 2,669 2,620 2,606 2,558 2,525 2,524 2,502 2,488 2,496 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 5,302 5,811 5,445 5,302 6,141 5,093 5,057 5,555 5,638 6,120 5,445 5,315 5,399 5,079 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 34,731 35,994 35,692 34,731 35,678 34,817 34,893 35,430 35,620 35,929 35,495 35,381 35,616 35,430 In foreign currency 1,895 1,843 1,536 1,895 1,904 1,894 1,887 1,859 1,852 1,915 1,860 1,884 1,828 1,742 Securities, total 5,345 5,345 5,647 5,345 5,211 5,204 4,723 4,871 4,819 5,234 5,112 5,175 5,263 5,282 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 27,965 26,767 28,420 27,965 28,953 28,198 27,716 27,949 28,085 27,929 27,079 27,358 26,819 26,696 Overnight 7,200 8,155 8,245 7,200 7,949 7,139 7,396 7,351 7,732 7,976 7,936 8,041 8,031 7,926 With agreed maturity -short-term 10,408 8,193 7,868 10,408 10,385 10,137 9,233 9,006 8,674 8,377 8,574 8,621 8,096 8,100 With agreed maturity -long-term 9,788 10,337 12,248 9,788 10,042 10,390 10,583 11,067 11,196 11,401 10,413 10,529 10,532 10,587 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 569 82 59 569 577 532 504 525 483 175 156 167 160 83 Deposits in foreign currency, total 434 463 579 434 426 438 436 450 496 705 462 491 462 456 Overnight 238 285 386 238 240 241 250 270 299 513 280 307 277 286 With agreed maturity -short-term 141 121 133 141 133 137 127 121 130 129 122 121 125 113 With agreed maturity -long-term 45 55 59 45 48 52 55 55 59 61 58 60 57 55 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 10 2 1 10 5 8 4 4 8 2 2 3 3 2 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.28 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.22 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.20 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 2.51 1.81 2.15 2.00 1.91 1.75 1.69 1.66 1.72 1.83 1.87 1.82 1.85 1.86 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 6.43 5.53 5.46 6.28 6.11 6.08 5.33 5.80 5.38 5.42 5.12 5.33 5.17 5.50 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 6.28 5.76 5.72 6.06 6.15 6.31 5.64 5.98 6.03 5.61 5.40 5.84 4.98 5.72 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operation^ 1.2^ 1.0^ 1.2^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.00 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates 1.23 0.81 1.39 0.71 0.68 0.66 0.64 0.64 0.69 0.73 0.85 0.90 0.88 1.00 6-month rates 1.44 1.08 1.64 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.96 0.98 1.01 1.10 1.15 1.14 1.22 LIBOR CHF 3-month rates 0.37 0.19 0.12 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.19 0.10 0.13 0.16 0.17 0.17 6-month rates 0.50 0.27 0.18 0.35 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.28 0.20 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.24 Sources of data: BS, BBA - British Bankers' Association. 2010 2011 2012 11 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 139 138 132 101 99 76 76 76 76 76 77 76 83 102 111 119 182 169 3,453 3,419 3,332 3,326 3,409 3,319 3,327 3,282 3,276 3,328 3,355 3,387 3,436 4,299 4,465 4,580 4,801 4,752 497 526 538 536 541 532 530 533 534 536 535 541 554 584 588 589 588 591 9,225 9,282 9,226 9,233 9,276 9,304 9,383 9,425 9,507 9,490 9,468 9,481 9,467 9,454 9,421 9,391 9,412 9,380 21,790 21,646 21,793 21,775 21,772 21,782 21,714 21,725 21,656 21,537 21,369 21,444 21,434 20,867 20,966 20,886 20,920 20,922 2,497 2,497 2,454 2,402 2,372 2,350 2,341 2,325 2,323 2,292 2,298 2,286 2,277 2,226 2,207 2,231 2,324 2,320 5,688 5,811 5,674 5,740 6,504 5,179 5,275 5,259 5,224 5,422 5,375 5,491 5,224 5,445 5,111 4,846 5,631 5,527 35,931 35,994 35,993 36,008 36,712 35,736 35,811 35,836 35,720 35,854 35,763 35,970 35,784 35,692 35,407 35,334 36,103 35,955 1,777 1,843 1,760 1,739 1,691 1,689 1,751 1,724 1,794 1,705 1,628 1,586 1,557 1,536 1,529 1,505 1,492 1,472 5,444 5,345 5,265 5,266 5,470 5,043 5,008 4,990 5,007 5,046 5,008 5,075 5,052 5,647 5,823 5,684 6,081 6,066 27,486 26,767 27,630 27,235 28,129 27,080 27,205 27,384 27,392 27,423 27,337 27,631 27,376 28,420 28,359 27,926 30,197 30,165 8,119 8,155 8,245 8,179 8,799 8,206 8,237 8,259 8,303 8,241 8,236 8,058 8,436 8,245 8,399 8,195 8,177 8,404 8,256 8,193 8,816 8,483 8,724 8,477 8,614 8,615 8,471 8,468 8,369 8,372 7,791 7,868 7,688 7,468 7,553 7,362 11,003 10,337 10,496 10,550 10,583 10,375 10,324 10,470 10,567 10,662 10,683 11,148 11,089 12,248 12,180 12,171 14,395 14,319 108 82 73 23 23 22 30 40 51 52 49 53 60 59 92 92 72 80 471 463 452 453 449 444 459 464 488 476 486 494 538 579 570 564 577 568 291 285 282 287 284 286 295 304 317 305 320 329 365 386 391 384 384 385 118 121 115 116 113 107 111 107 113 108 109 109 114 133 117 120 132 124 59 55 53 49 51 50 52 52 57 62 57 55 58 59 61 59 60 58 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.26 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.22 1.88 1.94 2.04 1.98 2.04 2.08 2.15 2.20 2.20 2.18 2.17 2.24 2.27 2.28 2.39 2.35 2.38 2.38 5.43 5.65 5.85 5.17 5.45 5.51 5.42 5.52 5.39 5.49 5.45 5.50 5.43 5.27 5.37 5.40 5.46 5.36 6.00 5.44 5.83 5.45 5.40 5.25 5.82 5.97 6.17 6.48 5.91 4.25 5.20 6.51 3.79 3.00 6.04 5.81 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.2^ 1.2^ 1.2^ 1.5^ 1.5^ 1.5^ 1.5^ 1.2^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.0^ 1.00 1.04 1.02 1.02 1.09 1.18 1.32 1.42 1.49 1.60 1.55 1.54 1.58 1.48 1.43 1.22 1.05 0.86 0.74 1.27 1.25 1.25 1.35 1.48 1.62 1.71 1.75 1.82 1.75 1.74 1.78 1.71 1.67 1.50 1.35 1.16 1.04 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.06 0.01 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.12 0.05 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.14 0.16 - PUBLIC FINANCE 2009 2010 2011 2010 2011 2012 2010 qM Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 8 1 9 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS-IMF methodology), current prices, EUR m GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 14,408.0 14,794.0 14,982.3 3,310.2 3,477.0 3,649.9 4,356.8 3,600.7 3,826.7 3,538.4 4,016.5 3,618.1 1,286.2 1,180.1 Current revenues 13,639.5 13,771.5 14,037.9 3,157.4 3,366.8 3,462.4 3,784.8 3,364.6 3,638.6 3,319.1 3,715.6 3,410.8 1,232.7 1,119.7 Tax revenues 12,955.4 12,848.4 13,209.2 2,983.4 3,189.2 3,186.0 3,489.9 3,155.9 3,451.0 3,129.7 3,472.7 3,172.7 1,103.3 1,055.6 Taxes on income and profit 2,805.1 2,490.7 2,723.5 635.5 594.4 554.5 706.4 635.4 827.7 562.9 697.5 629.5 226.9 213.4 Social security contributions 5,161.3 5,234.5 5,267.6 1,274.4 1,303.8 1,293.5 1,362.9 1,300.6 1,316.9 1,303.8 1,346.2 1,342.5 428.8 432.0 Taxes on payroll and workforce 28.5 28.1 29.2 6.3 7.2 6.5 8.1 6.7 7.6 6.7 8.2 7.2 1.9 2.0 Taxes on property 207.0 219.7 215.2 24.1 58.9 76.7 60.0 24.0 53.8 84.2 53.1 26.6 27.4 24.6 Domestic taxes on goods and services 4,660.2 4,780.7 4,856.2 1,023.9 1,199.2 1,231.6 1,325.9 1,165.5 1,217.4 1,148.4 1,324.9 1,164.0 411.2 376.1 Taxes on international trade & transactions 90.5 90.7 100.2 18.7 24.7 22.5 24.8 23.7 27.6 23.8 25.1 22.3 6.8 7.3 Other taxes 2.9 4.0 17.2 0.5 1.0 0.7 1.8 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 17.6 -19.4 0.2 0.3 Non-tax revenues 684.1 923.0 828.7 174.1 177.6 276.5 294.9 208.7 187.6 189.5 242.9 238.1 129.4 64.1 Capital revenues 106.5 175.7 65.3 9.8 17.9 26.1 121.9 7.6 21.6 14.4 21.7 10.5 13.5 3.3 Grants 11.1 12.6 10.4 2.9 2.2 2.5 5.0 2.4 3.0 1.0 4.0 1.1 1.0 0.5 Transferred revenues 54.3 109.5 53.8 0.5 2.3 3.8 102.9 2.3 0.4 50.5 0.6 0.1 0.9 0.9 Receipts from the EU budget 596.5 724.7 814.9 139.6 87.8 155.1 342.2 223.9 163.2 153.3 274.6 195.6 38.1 55.8 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TOTAL EXPENDITURES 16,368.2 16,692.7 16,546.3 4,035.1 4,122.7 3,948.1 4,586.9 4,191.6 4,159.0 3,955.7 4,240.0 4,323.5 1,272.4 1,372.8 Current expenditures 6,800.8 6,960.4 6,926.7 1,795.2 1,757.3 1,636.9 1,771.0 1,898.6 1,742.3 1,645.5 1,640.3 1,994.6 529.0 578.4 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3,911.9 3,912.4 3,882.7 956.4 1,012.5 963.6 980.0 967.0 1,010.3 955.0 950.4 971.2 324.8 319.0 Expenditures on goods and services 2,510.3 2,512.4 2,443.4 556.8 624.9 587.7 743.1 585.3 615.7 603.4 638.9 576.3 200.5 183.9 Interest payments 336.1 488.2 526.7 272.6 110.0 76.4 29.2 311.3 108.1 78.0 29.3 431.8 0.9 71.5 Reserves 42.5 47.4 73.9 9.4 9.9 9.2 18.8 35.0 8.2 9.1 21.6 15.3 2.8 4.0 Current transfers 7,339.4 7,628.5 7,818.9 1,849.0 1,995.1 1,810.9 1,973.6 1,942.5 2,076.4 1,855.7 1,944.4 1,956.5 590.1 612.0 Subsidies 597.9 581.9 496.3 160.7 122.8 103.7 194.7 171.2 127.6 69.1 128.2 176.7 27.6 36.8 Current transfers to individuals and households 6,024.5 6,277.7 6,533.5 1,529.0 1,671.1 1,514.7 1,562.9 1,606.6 1,745.6 1,583.0 1,598.3 1,608.8 501.2 504.4 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 678.1 728.8 737.2 150.6 188.6 183.3 206.3 158.8 186.2 189.0 203.2 158.0 59.4 64.9 Current transfers abroad 38.9 40.1 52.0 8.7 12.6 9.1 9.6 5.9 17.0 14.5 14.6 13.0 1.9 5.8 Capital expenditures 1,294.1 1,310.6 1,023.5 192.8 212.5 321.1 584.3 168.8 196.5 266.5 391.6 164.9 99.7 113.2 Capital transfers 494.6 396.4 372.1 47.5 90.1 82.0 176.9 42.4 73.3 97.0 159.4 45.7 22.1 34.3 Payments to the EU budget 439.3 396.8 405.1 150.6 67.8 97.3 81.1 139.3 70.6 91.0 104.4 161.8 31.6 34.9 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -1,960.2 -1,898.7 -1,564.1 - - - - - Source of data: MF Bulletin. Note: In line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the general government are not consolidated. * In the "corrected outturn" column, certain categories of revenues that remained on unallocated fund accounts were estimated based on previous months' dynamics. Unallocated funds are a consequence of the introduction of a new DURS information system and the modification of the fiscal revenue payment system on 1 October 2011. 2010 2011 2012 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10* 1 11* 1 12* 1 1 2 1 3 1,188.3 1,461.5 1,707.1 1,205.5 1,118.2 1,277.0 1,256.2 1,269.2 1,301.3 1,097.3 1,220.5 1,220.6 1,290.5 1,361.2 1,364.8 1,181.5 1,094.3 1,342.4 1,132.5 1,263.8 1,388.4 1,147.1 1,045.0 1,172.5 1,185.3 1,208.5 1,244.8 1,037.4 1,181.0 1,100.8 1,235.8 1,265.0 1,214.8 1,151.7 1,056.3 1,202.7 1,073.1 1,189.1 1,227.7 1,094.8 950.0 1,111.1 1,131.8 1,141.3 1,177.8 976.9 1,111.6 1,041.2 1,170.4 1,185.5 1,116.8 1,106.6 952.1 1,114.0 218.8 219.0 268.6 215.1 208.1 212.1 294.5 237.9 295.4 106.0 221.0 235.8 223.8 227.5 246.2 214.7 219.2 195.6 434.9 436.4 491.6 437.7 424.6 438.4 438.3 439.6 439.0 436.3 431.5 436.1 416.5 444.0 485.8 443.5 438.0 461.0 2.6 2.4 3.1 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 1.9 2.1 2.6 2.4 3.3 2.0 2.0 3.2 13.7 31.2 15.1 7.4 8.3 8.3 7.1 25.7 21.0 25.4 30.8 28.0 4.7 33.9 14.5 8.2 9.7 8.7 393.8 492.0 440.2 424.5 299.4 441.6 380.3 426.2 410.9 397.3 420.1 331.1 456.6 495.4 373.0 443.6 282.4 438.0 9.2 7.1 8.5 7.8 7.7 8.2 9.1 9.4 9.0 9.2 6.4 8.2 7.3 8.6 9.2 6.7 7.3 8.3 0.1 1.2 0.5 0.0 -0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 58.9 -26.3 -15.0 -12.1 -6.6 -0.7 59.5 74.7 160.8 52.3 95.0 61.4 53.5 67.2 66.9 60.5 69.4 59.6 65.5 79.5 98.0 45.1 104.3 88.7 7.3 31.1 83.5 2.0 2.7 2.8 10.9 3.4 7.3 5.1 4.2 5.1 3.6 6.1 12.0 2.2 4.2 4.1 1.2 1.9 1.9 0.9 0.4 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 2.2 1.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.5 100.9 1.5 1.5 0.0 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 50.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 46.7 63.7 231.8 54.1 70.0 99.8 58.9 56.0 48.2 54.3 35.1 63.9 50.3 87.6 136.6 27.2 33.5 134.9 1,373.5 1,419.6 1,793.9 1,418.9 1,408.8 1,363.8 1,359.4 1,476.9 1,322.8 1,308.6 1,321.4 1,325.8 1,328.8 1,368.3 1,542.9 1,491.1 1,438.3 1,394.1 557.2 543.8 670.0 638.7 637.0 622.9 629.0 585.2 528.1 535.5 540.4 569.6 544.4 530.7 565.2 679.6 647.0 668.0 329.2 322.8 328.0 326.1 316.0 324.9 312.2 377.7 320.3 321.5 320.6 312.8 322.2 320.0 308.2 335.7 320.6 315.0 203.2 216.9 323.0 202.1 184.0 199.2 213.0 203.2 199.5 207.4 215.5 180.5 196.4 204.5 238.0 202.2 186.3 187.8 21.9 1.5 5.8 88.6 134.5 88.2 101.3 1.5 5.3 3.9 2.3 71.7 21.9 1.9 5.6 136.4 134.8 160.6 2.9 2.7 13.2 22.0 2.5 10.5 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.6 1.9 4.5 3.9 4.3 13.4 5.4 5.3 4.7 624.5 633.0 716.1 673.8 628.3 640.3 635.9 781.7 658.8 620.8 619.8 615.0 607.7 642.7 694.0 707.6 628.9 619.9 46.4 50.2 98.1 97.5 46.4 27.4 40.9 36.8 49.9 22.7 22.9 23.6 17.0 39.3 71.9 117.0 40.2 19.5 516.8 519.5 526.6 521.6 532.8 552.2 534.7 673.0 537.8 530.5 529.9 522.6 526.4 540.0 531.9 535.4 533.2 540.2 58.2 59.0 89.1 51.2 48.7 58.8 54.9 61.9 69.4 61.5 65.9 61.6 63.0 62.3 77.8 49.1 51.3 57.6 3.1 4.2 2.3 3.6 0.4 1.9 5.4 9.9 1.7 6.2 1.1 7.2 1.2 1.1 12.4 6.1 4.3 2.6 116.1 161.6 306.6 58.8 50.7 59.4 54.2 62.0 80.3 78.5 105.5 82.5 94.6 111.5 185.6 56.6 54.5 53.8 40.7 68.1 68.2 12.5 11.5 18.4 20.4 21.1 31.8 41.4 29.1 26.5 49.3 48.1 61.9 12.3 15.7 17.7 35.1 13.1 33.0 35.1 81.3 22.9 19.9 26.9 23.8 32.3 26.5 32.1 32.8 35.3 36.2 35.1 92.2 34.6 - - - - - - - - - Acronyms Acronyms in the text AJPES - Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, BS - Bank of Slovenia, EC -European Commission, ECB - European Central Bank, EIA - Energy Information Administration, ESA - European System of Accounts, ESI - Economic Sentiment Indicator, ESS - Employment Service of Slovenia, GDP - Gross domestic product, HICP-Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, ifo - Information und Forschung Institut, IMAD - Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, IMF - International Monetary Fund, LFS- Labour Force Survey, MF - Ministry of Finance, NEER - Nominal Effective Exchange Rate, NFI - Non-monetary Financial Institutions, OECD - Organization Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, PMI - Purchasing Managers Index, PPA - Public Payments Administration of the Republic of Slovenia, RS - Republic of Slovenia, SCA - Standard Classification of Activities, SITC - Standard International Trade Classification, SMARS - Surveying and mapping Authority of the Republic of Slovenia, SORS - Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, SRE - Statistical Register of Employment, WEF - World Economic Forum, WIIW - The Wienna Institute for International Economic Studies. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities (SCA) A - Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B - Mining and quarrying, C - Manufacturing, 10 - Manufacture of food products, 11 - Manufacture of beverages, 12 - Manufacture of tobacco products, 13 - Manufacture of textiles, 14 - Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15 - Manufacture of leather and related products, 16 - Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17 - Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18 - Printing and reproduction of recordedmedia, 19-Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, 20- Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21 - Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22 - Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23 - Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24 - Manufacture of basic metals, 25 - Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26 - Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27 - Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28 - Manufacture of machinery and equipmentn.e.c.,29-Manufacture ofmotor vehicles, trailersandsemi-trailers,30-Manufactureofother transport equipment, 31 - Manufacture of furniture, 32 - Other manufacturing, 33 - Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D-Electricity,gas,steamandairconditioningsupply,E-Watersupplysewerage,wastemanagementandremediationactivities, F - Construction, G - Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H - Transportation and storage, I - Accommodation and food service activities, J - Information and communication, K - Financial and insurance activities, L -Real estate activities, M - Professional, scientific and technical activities, N - Administrative and support service activities, O - Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P - Education, Q - Human health and social work activities, R - Arts, entertainment and recreation, S - Other service activities, T - Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods- and services- producing activities of households for own use, U - Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AT-Austria, BA-Bosnia and Herzegovina, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, HR-Croatia, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IE-Ireland, IL-Israel, IT-Italy, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RS-Republic of Serbia, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America. Slovenian economic mirror May 2012, No. 5. Vol. XVIII