No. 6, Vol. XXII, 2016 Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3826 No. 6 / Vol. XXII / 2016 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Responsible Person: Boštjan Vasle, MSc, Director Editor in Chief: Matevž Hribernik Authors of Current Economic Trends (listed alphabetically): Urška Brodar, Jure Brložnik, Aleš Delakorda, MSc, Janez Dodič, Marjan Hafner, MSc, Katarina Ivas, MSc, Slavica Jurančič, Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič, Janez Kušar, MSc, Jože Markič, PhD, Helena Mervic, Tina Nenadič, MSc, Mitja Perko, MSc, Jure Povšnar, Ana T. Selan, MSc, Dragica Šuc, MSc, Ana Vidrih, MSc. Authors of Selected Topics: Valerija Korošec, PhD (Indicators of income inequality and social exclusion in 2015) Helena Mervic (Social protection expenditure – 2014 ) Tanja Čelebič, MSc (General government expenditure on culture in 2014 and the number of persons employed in cultural activities in 2015) Editorial Board: Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Aleš Delakorda, MSc, Lejla Fajić, Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, MSc, Boštjan Vasle, MSc Translator: Marija Kavčič Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Bibijana Cirman Naglič Print: Demat d.o.o. Circulation: 80 copies © The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the spotlight................................................................................................................................................................ 3 Current economic trends .............................................................................................................................................. 5 International environment............................................................................................................................................... 7 Economic developments in Slovenia ............................................................................................................................. 9 Labour market .................................................................................................................................................................. 14 Prices .................................................................................................................................................................................. 16 Balance of payments ....................................................................................................................................................... 18 Financial markets ............................................................................................................................................................. 19 Public finance.................................................................................................................................................................... 20 Selected topics Indicators of income inequality and social exclusion in 2015 ................................................................................. 25 Social protection expenditure – 2014 .......................................................................................................................... 26 General government expenditure on culture in 2014 and the number of persons employed in cultural activities in 2015 .............................................................................................................................................................. 27 Statistical appendix ..................................................................................................................................................... 29 The Economic Mirror is prepared based on statistical data available by 7th October 2016. On 1 January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev. 2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, took effect. It includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses. All analyses in the Slovenian Economic Mirror are based on SKD 2008, except when the previous classification, SKD 2002, is explicitly referred to. For more information on the introduction of the new classification see the SURS website http://www.stat.si/eng/skd_nace_2008.asp. All current comparisons (at the monthly, quarterly levels) in the Slovenian Economic Mirror are made on the basis of seasonally adjusted data, while year-on-year comparisons are based on original data. Unless otherwise indicated, all seasonally adjusted data for Slovenia are calculations by IMAD. In the spotlight The prospects for economic growth in the euro area remain favourable; the risks are on the downside and arise mainly from outside the euro area. In July activity in retail trade and construction climbed to the highest level this year while activity in manufacturing remained unchanged. Confidence indicators also indicate further growth in economic activity in coming months. Autumn forecasts by international institutions for GDP growth in the euro area have not changed significantly, predicting growth rates of between -1.5% and 1.7% for 2015 and between 1.3% and1.6% for 2016. According to the OECD, the ECB and the IMF, the key risks to growth are weak foreign demand and the potential negative implications of the referendum decision in the UK. Thus far the UK’s vote to leave the EU has not significantly affected confidence or economic activity in the euro area. Most short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia increased further at the beginning of the third quarter. Growth in merchandise exports continued, as did growth in manufacturing output, which exceeded the 2008 figures for the first time. Turnover in market services remained high. Improved labour market conditions and growth in private consumption were reflected in further growth in some segments of trade. Turnover also increased further in tourism-related services, which was also attributable to higher spending of foreign tourists in Slovenia. In recent months activity has also been picking up in construction, and growth prospects for this sector improved further. Confidence in the economy and among consumers remains high and suggests a continuation of favourable trends. Labour market conditions remain favourable. In July the number of employed rose further, particularly in manufacturing, professional, scientific and technical activities, and accommodation and food service activities. Expectations about employment also remain high. Registered unemployment continued to decline, 95,125 persons being registered as unemployed at the end of September, 9.2% less than one year before. Average gross earnings have not changed significantly in the last few months and remain at the same level as at the end of 2015. Consumer prices remain at a similar level to one year ago. In September, service and food prices were up year­on-year while prices of durable and semi-durable goods were down. Price movements were affected by year-on-year declines in energy prices, but their negative contribution has decreased in the last few months. Lending activity remains modest amid further deleveraging of the corporate sector; the maturity of deposits is shortening. The volume of household housing and consumer loans is rising while the volume of corporate and NFI loans continues to fall. The share of non-performing claims is declining as well: at the end of July they accounted for 7.3% of all bank claims. The maturity structure of deposits continues to deteriorate, since mainly overnight deposits are increasing. This could hamper the rebound in longer-term bank lending, according to our estimate. Among bank sources of finance, deposits of domestic non-banking sectors play an increasingly important role, while the volume of inter-bank financing and liabilities to the euro-system contracts. The favourable economic situation and labour market conditions are increasing tax revenues and social security contributions, but as receipts from the EU budget declined by around 40% during the transition to the new financial perspective, total general government revenue did not change significantly this year. General government expenditure was lower, owing mainly to approximately half lower investment expenditure and, partly, lower payments into the EU budget, amid a significant increase in expenditure on wages and social transfers. Specifically, after the partial removal of austerity measures, some transfers to individuals and households increased considerably despite the improvement in labour market conditions. The general government deficit (on a cash basis) was thus EUR 235 million lower year on year in the first seven months. Growth prospects for the euro area for this year remain Merchandise exports remain the main driver of GDP growth in favourable, while next year growth is expected to decline slightly Slovenia 2015 Jan-Jul 2016 Forecast for 2016 Forecast for 2017 Real GDP growth, in % 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1 ECB Sep16 CONSENSUS OECD Sep 16 IMF Oct 16 Merchandise Industrial Value of Turnover in Sep 16 exports production in construction put retail trade Source: IMF, OECD, ECB, Consensus Forecasts. manufacturing in place Source: SURS. Growth in the number of employed continues in most activities Favourable labour market conditions and low household indebtedness influence growth in housing transactions Manufacturing (C) Construction (F) Total Market services (G-N) Public services (O–Q) Transactions in existing residential properties Growth in %, 3-month moving average, seasonally Transactions in new residential properties 180 Index 2008=100, 4-quarter moving average 160 140 -0.5 120 100 80 60 -2.0 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 40 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Modest lending activity amid further corporate deleveraging General government deficit according to the ESA methodology declined; the primary balance recorded the highest surplus since the beginning of the crisis Budget balance Primary budget balance Households Enterprises and NFIs Government Total 2 0 -2 -4 As a % of GDP -6 -8 -10 -12 -14 -16 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 I.–VI. I.–VI. 2015 2016 Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. Source: SURS. current economic trends Seasonally adjusted index 2008=100, 3-month 105 70 85 90 90 95 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 100 0.0 0.0 Q1 14 0.5 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 15 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 16 Q2 Contribution to quarterly GDP growth, in pps 1.5 1.5 Economic growth in the euro area continued in the second -0.5 -1.0 Long-term average=100, 3-month moving average Real quarterly growth (%) thus far. will continue. The uncertainty caused by the United Kingdom’s decision to exit from the EU has not adversely affected confidence indicators and economic activity Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) and the composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the third quarter, which remain at roughly the same levels as in the second quarter, also indicate that moderate economic growth manufacturing remained similar to previous months. The indicating that economic growth in the euro area will remain at around the same rate as in the second quarter. In July activity in the retail and construction industries climbed to its highest level this year, while activity in been the main driver of the recovery in recent quarters, was low. quarter. GDP rose by 0.3% (seasonally adjusted; by 0.5% in the first quarter) and was 1.6% higher year on year. The largest contribution to GDP growth came from net exports, while growth in private consumption, which has Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Figure 3: Consensus forecasts for 2016 In the autumn, none of the international institutions significantly revised their forecasts for economic growth in the euro area for this year. The ECB and the IMF raised slightly their forecasts for this year’s GDP growth in the euro area (to 1.7%). The Consensus forecast has been left unchanged at 1.5% since June; the same growth is also predicted for the euro area by the OECD, which otherwise reduced its forecast slightly. For next year international institutions project slightly lower growth than this year (1.3–1.6%). The key risks to GDP growth remain tilted to the downside and arise mainly from outside the euro area (weak domestic demand, potential negative implications International environment Figure 1: Contributions to quarterly economic growth in the euro area Private consumption Gross fixed capital formation Government final cons. exp. Changes in inventories Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services GDP (right axis) 1.0 -0.5 -1.0 Source: Eurostat. Figure 2: Short-term indicators of economic activity in the euro area and the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) Industrial production in manufacturing Construction output Turnover in retail trade ESI (right axis) 110 Growth prospects for the third quarter remain favourable, Jan 15 Feb Mar Apr May JunJul Aug Sep Oct NovDec Jan 16 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Source: Consensus Forecasts. of the EU membership referendum in the UK.) Figure 4: ECB Euro Area Bank Lending Survey Credit standards for loans to enterprises over the past 3-m (left axis) Credit standards for loans to enterprises over the next 3-m (left axis) Demand for loans to enterprises over the past 3-m (right axis) Demand for loans to enterprises over the next 3-m (right axis) 40 In the second quarter, credit standards for enterprises and improved/tightened their credit standards (%) 30 30 -10 -20 -30 Difference between the number of banks thatexpect corporate loan demand to increaseand those expecting it to decline (%) Difference between the numbers of banks that households in the euro area improved further and the demand for all types of loans increased. The indicators of the ECB survey show an improvement in credit standards for all loan maturities and enterprise sizes and for household housing and consumer loans. The main factor behind the improvement remained competition between the banks. Net credit flows strengthened with the improvement in credit standards and higher demand; the latter is also expected to increase in the third quarter. In the first half of the year, net credit flows were higher 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 year on year. -40 -40 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Source: ECB. Note: A positive figure indicates an improvement. Table 1: Indicators related to the international environment average change, in %* 2015 VIII 16 IX 16 IX 16/VIII 16 IX 16/IX 15 I-IX 16/I-IX 15 Brent USD, per barrel 52.35 45.84 46.57 1.6 -2.2 -24.6 Brent EUR, per barrel 48.33 42.25 42.69 1.0 -1.4 -23.3 EUR/USD 1.110 1.121 1.121 0.0 -0.1 0.1 3-month EURIBOR, in % -0.020 -0.298 -0.302 -0.3 -26.5 -25.1 Source: EIA, ECB, EMMI Euribor; calculations by IMAD. Note: * in Euribor change in basis points. Economic developments in Slovenia Figure 5: Short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia Merchandise exports Industrial production in manufacturing Most short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia Value of construction completed increased further at the turn of the third quarter. Growth Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Table 2: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia In % 2015 VII 16/VI 16 VII 16/VII 15 I-VII 16/I-VII 15 Merchandise exports, real1 4.3 2.13 -1.4 5.8 Merchandise imports, real1 3.9 1.83 -0.6 3.7 Services exports, nominal2 8.4 -1.83 0.8 4.9 Services imports, nominal2 3.7 3.63 1.5 1.2 Industrial production, real 5.6 1.23 7.44 5.94 -manufacturing 6.0 1.63 9.44 7.54 Construction -value of construction put in place, real -8.2 2.03 -7.6 -23.0 Real turnover in retail trade 1.0 0.93 3.44 1.34 Nominal turnover in market services (without trade) 5.4 0.43 2.34 3.54 Sources: BoS, Eurostat, SURS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1External trade statistics; deflated by IMAD, 2balance of payments statistics, 3seasonally adjusted, 4working-day adjusted data. Figure 6: Merchandise trade – real Seasonally adjusted index 2008=100, 3-month moving Seasonally adjusted index 2008=100, 3-month average 100 higher imports of consumer goods related to stronger 95 household consumption. 90 85 80 moving average 115 Real merchandise exports and imports continued to grow 110 in July. 1 In the seven months to July, real merchandise exports were up 5.8% year on year owing to higher exports 105 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 Turnover in retail trade 130 30 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 in most manufacturing activities. Imports rose 3.7% year on year in the same period, largely as a consequence of these favourable trends will continue. manufacturing output, which exceeded the figures from 2008 for the first time. Turnover in market services remained high. Improving labour market conditions and growth in private consumption were reflected in further growth in some segments of trade. Turnover also expanded further in tourism-related services, which was also attributable to higher spending by foreign tourists in Slovenia. In recent months activity has also been picking up in construction, and growth prospects for this sector have continued to improve. Confidence in the economy and among consumers remains high, suggesting that in merchandise exports continued, as did growth in Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. prices on the foreign market, whereas real imports are estimated based on nominal imports according to external trade statistics and the import price index. Detailed data on the structure of merchandise trade for July 2016 are not yet available. Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 1 The estimate of real merchandise exports is made on the basis of nominal exports according to external trade statistics and industrial producer Figure 7: Trade in services – nominal Exports of services Imports of services Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 8: Production volume in manufacturing in Slovenia and the EU, January – July 2016 Production volume in manufacturing increased further in July and exceeded 2008 levels for the first time. Since the beginning of the year, production has increased the most in industries of higher technology intensity, most of which have already exceeded pre-crisis levels. Only the manufacture of other machinery and equipment still lags behind, but this has also not yet returned to pre-crisis levels in the EU. Following the decline in the second quarter, production volumes also resumed growth in medium–low-technology industries, which (with the exception of the metal industry) still lag behind their 2008 levels. The recovery remains slowest in low-technology industries, which are further away from their pre-crisis figures than their counterparts in the EU. The wider gap of these industries than in the EU is mainly due to the textile and furniture industries, where production volume has fallen by about half since 2008. Figure 9: Value of construction completed In July the value of construction completed increased for the fourth consecutive month. After the decline in construction activity in 2015 and early this year, the value of construction completed strengthened over the remainder of the year. Residential construction began to rebound in mid-2015, and activity has also recently strengthened in the construction of non-residential buildings and civil-engineering works. In EUR m, seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 500 450 400 350 300 250 Growth in nominal services imports and exports slowed during the summer months.2 The main reason for the year-on-year growth of exports in the first seven months of the year (4.9%) was higher exports of transport and construction services, while the year-on-year growth of imports arose primarily from increased imports of technical and trade-related business services. Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. 2 According to the national accounts statistics. Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Seasonally adjusted index 2008=100, 3-month moving average Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 12: Turnover in retail trade segments Sale of automotive fuel Distributive trades continued to record strong sales of Sale of food vehicles and other non-food products in July. Turnover in Sale of non-food products these sectors was also significantly higher than in the same period last year. The largest year-on-year increase in the first seven months was recorded for turnover in Index 2008=100, 4-quarter moving average Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 11: Prices of new and existing dwellings Prices of existing flats Prices of new flats Prices of existing houses Figure 10: Transactions in new and existing dwellings Transactions in existing flats Transactions in new flats Transactions in existing houses Transactions in new houses The number of residential property transactions continued to strengthen in the second quarter and was almost a quarter higher year on year. The sales of existing dwellings,3 having already surpassed the pre-crisis level in 2015, continued to rise. The sales of newly built dwellings were also up year on year, mainly owing to further sales of dwellings from the bankruptcy estate and flats sold by the Housing Fund of the Republic of Slovenia, but were still well below the figures from 2007. 100 95 90 85 80 Q1 11 Prices of new houses 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 Q1 12 Q1 16 Q1 16 Jul 16 Q1 11 Q1 12Q1 13Q1 13Q1 14Q1 14Q1 15Q1 15 motor vehicles, which was up almost one-fifth owing to higher sales of new passenger and goods motor vehicles.4 Sales of telecommunications, computer equipment and household appliances were also almost one-tenth higher. Turnover in the sale of automotive fuel and wholesale trade was similar to that in the same period of 2015. Food product sales remained lower year on year. 3 Transactions in existing dwellings represent around 90% of all transactions in Slovenia. 4 After three years of growth, sales to legal entities have been declining In the second quarter, residential property prices rose for the second time in a row and were up over the same quarter of 2015. Higher year-on-year prices were recorded for existing flats, which account for around two-thirds of all transactions. They were up the most in Ljubljana (by 4.2%), where the number of flats sold was the highest in nine years. The prices of new flats and all types of houses remained lower than the previous year. Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. (up by around one quarter). year on year since March 2016 (except for June), while sales to individuals, which have only last year started to strengthen, continue. After last year’s strong growth, the number of first registrations of new goods motor vehicles and goods trailing vehicles also continues to increase this year Jan 11Jul 11Jan 12 Jul 12Jan 13 Jul 13Jan 14 Jul 14Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Figure 13: Nominal turnover in market services (other than trade) Total Transportation and storage (H) Information and communication activities (J) Although nominal turnover in market services continues Professional and technical activities (M) Administrative and support service activities (N) to stagnate, it remains high. With increased spending by both domestic and foreign tourists, turnover continues to rise in accommodation and food service activities. Seasonally adjusted index 2008=100, It remains high in computer and employment services5 and the transportation sector. In the latter, export revenue from land transport services is declining whereas turnover in warehousing is increasing. Turnover in telecommunications6 and in architectural and engineering activities7 has been falling since the beginning of the year, as well as in legal and accounting and management consultancy activities8 in recent months. In the first seven months of the year, turnover 3-month moving average 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 was still higher year on year across most market service activities. Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jul 16 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 14: Road and rail freight transport Railway Road – exports and imports Road – abroad Road – national Road freight transport continues to stagnate. Road In million tkm, orig. index 2008=100, transport carried out entirely abroad increased further in 4-quarter moving average 140 130 120 110 100 sectors, particularly construction. After the strong growth 90 in export orders came to an end, rail freight transport has 80 remained at the achieved level9 for a long period of time. 70 60 the first quarter of 2016 under the impact of strong foreign demand. The volume of international transport (where the place of loading/unloading is in Slovenia) declined, which is partly linked to domestic factors. National transport stagnated, reflecting the weak activity in some Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Net wage bill (left axis) Turnover in stores selling furniture and house. appliances (right axis) Number of first passenger car registr. by natural persons (right axis) 80 According to the indicators available, household final consumption continued to grow in July. With the growth in employee compensation and social transfers, we estimate that disposable income has continued to increase. Purchases of durable goods (vehicles and household appliances in particular) and some semi-durable goods (clothing, footwear and goods for personal care) are still rising. According to our estimates, spending on services related to tourism,10 leisure and recreation was also up in July. 5 N78 – Employment activities (SKD 2008). 6 J61 – Telecommunications (SKD 2008). 7 M71 – Architectural and engineering activities (SKD 2008). 8 M69 – Legal and accounting activities; M70.2 – Management consultancy Seasonally adjusted index 2008=100, 3-month moving average 70 60 50 activities (SKD 2008). 9 In Q1 2016 the volume of rail and road freight transport was about 2% higher year on year; in road transport, imports and exports were a tenth 40 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Source: Ministry of Infrastructure, SURS, calculations by IMAD. lower while transport abroad was 18% higher. 10 The amount spent by Slovenian residents on private trips abroad was up 6.2% year on year in the first seven months of this year. The number of overnight stays by domestic tourists was up 1.4%. Figure 16: Business tendency Economic sentiment Manufacturing Retail trade Service activities Construction Potrošniki Seasonally adjusted indicator value, 20 10 0 3-month moving average -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 According to data from the business tendency survey, confidence indicators in the economy and among consumers remain high. Jan 11Jul 11Jan 12Jul 12Jan 13Jul 13Jan 14Jul 14Jan 15Jul 15Jan 16Jul 16 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: * Owing to methodological changes, the data published since January 2016 are not comparable with previous data. Labour market Industry Distributive trades Construction Services 20 20 Seasonally adjusted indicator value, 3-month moving average 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 10 Against the backdrop of higher confidence in the economy, the number of employed persons11 continues to rise. The 0 year-on-year growth in the number of employed persons in first seven months of the year was higher than in the -10 same period of 2015, particularly in manufacturing,12 professional, scientific and technical activities, accommodation and food service activities, and in -20 distributive trades. With the removal of hiring restrictions, -30 public service activities recorded stronger growth, particularly in the health sector, public administration and primary education. Expectations about employment -40 also remain positive. Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Table 3: Indicators of labour market trends change, in % 2015 VII 16/VI 16 VII 16/VII 15 1.5 I-VII 16/I-VII 15 1.1 Persons in formal employment2 0.9 0.11 Registered unemployed -6.1 -0.71 -9.5 -7.5 Average nominal gross wage 0.7 0.11 0.2 1.7 - private sector 0.5 0.01 -0.5 1.4 - public sector 1.2 -0.11 1.5 2.3 -of which general government 1.0 0.31 3.8 3.7 of which public corporations 1.5 -0.91 -3.4 -0.9 2015 VII 15 VI 16 VII 16 Rate of registered unemployment (in %), seasonally adjusted 12.3 12.3 11.3 11.2 Sources: ESS. SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1seasonally adjusted, 2 Persons in paid employment, self-employed persons and farmers. Employed according to SRE (left axis) Registered unemployed (right axis) 180 With increased hiring, registered unemployment Number of registered unemployed, in '000, seasonally adjusted continued to decline in the third quarter. The decline was attributable not only to the outflow into employment, which was also higher year on year in the first nine months, but also to the decreasing inflow into unemployment. This was mainly due to a lower number of first-time jobseekers and persons out of work due to business reasons or the termination of their fixed-term employment contracts. At the end of September, the number of persons registered as unemployed was 95,125, which is 9.2% less than last year. 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 11 According to the Statistical Register of Employment, these are persons Jan 11Jul 11Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 in paid employment and self-employed persons (excluding farmers). 12 According to our estimates, this is also where most of the workers hired by employment agencies, which provide labour to other sectors, were Source: SURS, ESS, calculations by IMAD. assigned. The number of persons employed in employment activities was up 9.5% or 1,305 persons in the first seven months of the year. The year­on-year growth in the number of workers in these activities is otherwise slowing, which could be a consequence of increased direct hiring in other sectors. Figure 19: Average gross earnings per employee Total Private sector Public sector Gross earnings per employee, 3-month movingaverage, in EUR, seasonally adjusted. – general government – public corporations 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 Average gross earnings did not change significantly during the period from the end of 2015 to July 2016. Extraordinary payments caused a slight upward swing in earnings in the private sector during this period, while public sector earnings remained close to their level in December, when they had risen owing to the promotions of civil servants. In the first seven months, earnings in both sectors recorded considerably higher year-on-growth than for the same period in 2015. Unlike in previous years, average earnings fell only in public corporations, where they were around one percent lower year on year. Jan 11Jul 11Jan 12Jul 12Jan 13Jul 13Jan 14Jul 14Jan 15Jul 15Jan 16Jul 16 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Source: SURS, Ministry of Economic Development and Technology; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1 Clothing, footwear, furniture, passenger cars, alcoholic beverages, tobacco, etc.; 2The trimmean approach excludes the share of extreme price changes in each month. The optimum share is determined as a difference between the moving average and the calculated trimmed mean in the period of the last five years. 3 The calculation includes prices formulated on the basis of price mechanisms according to the Price Control Act, and prices under direct government control (oil derivatives, railway transport, school books, tolls). Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Prices Euro area HICP Euro area HICP - core inflation Slovenia HICP Slovenia HICP - core inflation Consumer prices have remained similar year on year. However, the prices of food and services have remained higher than in the same period of 2015. Price movements have also been affected by year-on-year declines in energy prices, but their negative contribution has decreased in recent months. Prices of durable and semi-durable goods have also remained lower. Inflation is also low in the euro area, reflecting higher prices of services and food and higher prices of durable and semi-durable goods. Source: Eurostat. Industrial producer prices and import prices remain down year on year. However, these price declines are easing on both foreign and domestic markets. On the domestic market, they are also affected by import prices, which are falling at a slower pace owing to a smaller decline in commodity and industrial producer prices in the euro area. Source: SURS. Table 4: Consumer price growth in % 2015 IX16/VIII16 VI16/VI15 Total -0.5 0.1 0.2 Food 1.5 -0.1 1.0 Fuels and energy -6.7 1.3 -2.4 Services 0.7 -1.9 1.9 Other1 -0.1 2.6 -0.4 Total excluding food and energy 0.3 -0.1 0.5 Core inflation – trimmean2 0.0 0.2 0.2 Administered prices3 -9.8 2.5 -2.4 Tax impact – contribution in percentage points -0.2 0.0 0.0 Figure 22: Price competitiveness Real effective exchange rate* deflated by the relative HICP The price competitiveness of Slovenia’s economy remains Nominal effective exchange rate relatively favourable. With the euro appreciating in Relative HICP value against the currencies of some of its main trading Year-on-year change, Jan–Aug 2016, in % 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD. *A rise in the value indicates a loss in price competitiveness and vice versa. partners, the growth in the nominal effective exchange rate continues – but at one of the lowest rates in the euro area. This is a consequence not only of Slovenia’s above-average share of intra-euro area trade and hence its lower susceptibility to exchange rate volatility, but also its weaker trade links with individual trading partners whose currencies have been depreciating to a greater extent this year.13 The deterioration in price competitiveness is also eased by declining relative consumer prices. Despite a slight increase, the real effective exchange rate for Slovenia in the first eight months of this year was therefore still close to last year’s lows and, according to our estimate, remained one of the factors that supported exports. 13 In the first eight months as a whole, the euro gained most value against the British pound (9.5%), which has the lowest share in the basket of currencies in Slovenia compared with other euro area countries. An appreciation of around 5% was also recorded against the Chinese yuan, the Polish zloty and the South Korean won. Balance of payments Figure 23: Components of the current account of the balance of payments Merchandise trade Trade in services Primary income Secondary income Current account 5,000 -2,000 Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. Table 5: Balance of payments I-VII 2016, in EUR m Inflows Outflows Balance Balance, I-VII 15 Current account 19,459.1 17,681.8 1,777.2 1,133.2 Goods 14,551.7 13,389.1 1,162.6 928.3 Services 3,522.3 2,280.1 1,242.2 1,104.1 Primary income 1,000.3 1,308.7 -308.4 -548.4 Secondary income 384.8 704.0 -319.2 -350.8 Capital account 184.7 331.0 -146.3 163.1 Financial account -318.5 524.9 843.4 1,266.7 Direct investment 915.9 282.8 -633.1 -442.5 Portfolio investment -840.3 866.2 1,706.5 1,328.7 Other investment -343.8 -540.1 -196.3 345.6 Net errors and omissions 0.0 -787.6 -787.6 -29.5 Source: BoS. Note: The methodology of the Slovenian Balance of Payments and International Investment Position statistics follows the recommendations in the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual published by the International Monetary Fund. On the current and capital accounts, the term »inflows” means total receipts and the term “outflows” means total expenditures; “balance” is the difference between inflows and outflows. On the financial account, “outflows” mean assets, while “inflows” mean liabilities abroad; “balance” is the difference between outflows and inflows. In financial inflows and outflows, the increase is recorded with a plus sign and the decrease with a minus sign. Figure 24: Financial transactions of the balance of payments Direct investment Portfolio investment Financial derivatives Other investment Financial transactions 12,000 10,000 The financial account of the balance of payments 12-month moving sum, in EUR m 12-month moving sum, in EUR m 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 -2,000 -4,000 -6,000 -8,000 Jan 11 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 -1,000 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 recorded a net outflow in the seven months to July. The Bank of Slovenia significantly increased its financial investment in foreign securities during this period, while the government and commercial banks deleveraged abroad.14 Direct investment inflows have remained modest since April, which is when foreign investment in the Slovenian banking sector increased. Although Slovenia still recorded a net inflow, this was mainly due to a decline in Slovenia’s direct investment abroad, both in the form of equity and debt financing. The current account surplus is at its highest level thus far and totalled 6.6% of estimated GDP in the twelve months to July. The main reason for its year-on-year increase in the first seven months of the year was the higher surplus in international trade in goods and services, which reflects better terms of trade and faster real growth in exports than imports. The deficit in primary income and secondary income was down year on year largely owing to the lower cost of servicing the external debt and the lower payments into the EU budget (VAT-based and GNI-based payments) respectively. -10,000 Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. investors. Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 14 Domestic commercial banks and the government are repaying their loans to foreign creditors and their long-term liabilities to foreign portfolio Financial markets Figure 25: Share and volume of non-performing loans (NPLs) in the Slovenian banking system Volume of NPLs Volume of NPLs - EBA Share of NPLs (right axis) Share of NPLs (right axis) 9,000 20 8,000 18 7,000 16 6,000 14 0 -1,000 -2,000 -3,000 -4,000 -5,000 -6,000 -7,000 Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. Lending activity in the Slovenian banking system remains modest amid further deleveraging of the corporate sector, while the quality of banks’ assets is improving. The volume of corporate and NFI loans continues to decline year-on­year.15 Owing to more favourable lending conditions, 4,000 8 12 enterprises are taking out short-term loans abroad. In EUR m 5,000 Household loans at Slovenian banks continue to expand. According to our estimates, this is due to banks focusing In % 10 more on the less risky segment of borrowers such as 3,000 6 households, given their lower levels of indebtedness and the favourable developments on the labour market. In 2,000 4 1,000 2 addition to housing loans, consumer loans therefore also 0 rose year on year in August, for the first time since May 2010. The quality of the banks’ assets also continued to improve. This time, a significant contribution came from the sale of a portion of one of the banks’ non-performing claims. Q1 13Q2Q3Q4Q1 14Q2Q3Q4Q1 15Q2Q3Q4Q1 16Q2Jul 16 Source: BoS. Note: Under the EBA definition, non-performing loans include not only arrears that are over 90 days past due, but also exposures that meet the "unlikely to pay" criterion. Table 6: Financial market indicators Domestic bank loans to non-banking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR m Nominal loan growth, % 31. VIII 15 31. XII 14 31. VIII 16 31. VIII 16/31. VII 16 31. VIII 16/31. VIII 16 Loans total 22,195.0 21,741.8 20,550.0 -0.9 -7.4 Enterprises and NFI 11,495.3 10,966.1 9,818.1 -2.1 -14.6 Government 1,887.9 1,919.7 1,802.3 -1.0 -4.5 Households 8,811.8 8,855.9 8,929.7 0.4 1.3 Consumer credits 2,059.0 2,032.2 2,068.3 0.2 0.5 Lending for house purchase 5,465.7 5,524.6 5,634.4 0.2 3.1 Other lending 1,287.1 1,299.1 1,227.0 2.0 -4.7 Bank deposits total 15,624.2 15,879.4 16,622.4 -0.2 6.4 Overnight deposits 8,504.1 8,962.9 10,354.7 0.9 21.8 Term deposits 7,120.0 6,916.5 6,267.7 -1.9 -12.0 Government bank deposits, total 2,261.7 1,644.2 973.2 -3.4 -57.0 Deposits of non-financial corporations, total 5,025.0 5,331.9 5,481.6 -0.9 9.1 Figure 26: Changes in the volume of main sources of financing in the Slovenian banking system Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BoS, SMA (Securities Market Agency); calculations by IMAD. Note: NFI – Non-monetary Financial Institutions. Foreign banks Eurosystem Among the bank sources of finance available, the deposits Domestic banks Domestic non-banking sectors held by domestic non-banking sectors play an increasingly Total 4,000 important role, while the volume of inter-bank financing and liabilities to the euro-system contracts. As a result of 3,000 12-month moving totals, in EUR m low deposit interest rates, only overnight deposits are 2,000 1,000 still rising and already account for over 60% of total non- banking sector deposits. However, we do not consider these deposits to be a sufficiently robust foundation to revive bank lending over the longer term. Lending to households has therefore been strengthening in recent months, taking the form of consumer loans, which generally have shorter maturities. Banks continue to reduce not only their liabilities to domestic and foreign banks, but also to the ECB, as there is no need for this type of funding amid the high liquidity of the banking system and weak lending activity. 15 Excluding the transfer of assets to the BAMC. Public finance basis General government balance 400 -100 -600 -1,100 -1,600 -2,100 2011 In EUR m 2012 2013 Primary general government balance 2014 2015 Source: MF, Bulletin of Government Finance; calculations by IMAD. Jan-Jul 2015 TOTAL REVENUE (right axis) 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2015 The year-on-year decline in the general government deficit on a cash basis continued in the middle of the year. In the seven months to July, the deficit was EUR 235 million lower year on year, reflecting the favourable economic situation and changes in inflows from the EU budget. If interest payments are not taken into account, the general government balance recorded a surplus in the middle of the year. Jan-Jul 2016 Table 7: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure on a cash basis Category I-VII 2015 I-VII 2016 Category I-VII 2015 I-VII 2016 EUR m Y-o-y growth, in % EUR m Y-o-y growth, in % EUR m Y-o-y growth, in % EUR m Y-o-y growth, in % REVENUES TOTAL 8,918.8 2.3 8,955.7 0.4 EXPENDITURE TOTAL 9,678.4 0.2 9,480.0 -2.1 Tax revenues* 4,715.3 5.9 4,798.8 1.8 Salaries, wages and other personnel expenditures** 2,123.0 -0.2 2,203.5 3.8 Personal income tax 1,112.5 3.0 1,137.9 2.3 Expenditure on goods and services 1,261.4 -1.3 1,273.9 1.0 Corporate income tax 355.9 28.3 371.3 4.3 Interest payments 698.1 3.1 715.8 2.5 Taxes on immovable property 70.8 103.4 78.4 10.7 Reserves 95.4 92.2 107.6 12.7 Value added tax 1,877.3 4.1 1,921.6 2.4 Transfers to individuals and households 3,793.7 0.5 3,859.5 1.7 Excise duties 844.9 2.1 817.0 -3.3 Other current transfers 735.0 -5.2 728.7 -0.9 Social security contributions 3,149.1 3.5 3,301.3 4.8 Investment expenditure 689.2 -0.5 350.9 -49.1 Non-tax revenues 505.7 -31.8 513.2 1.5 Payments to the EU budget 282.6 -0.4 240.1 -15.0 Receipts from the EU budget 485.7 10.8 299.4 -38.4 BUDGET BALANCE -759.6 -524.2 Other 63.1 52.4 43.1 -31.6 PRIMARY BALANCE -72.3 168.9 Source: MF. Bulletin of Government Finance; calculations by IMAD. Note:* Unlike tax revenues in the consolidated balance of public finance, tax revenues in this table do not include social constributions.** Labour costs include social contributions by the employer. Figure 28: Revenue growth and contributions of individual categories to growth Tax revenues Social security contributions Non-tax revenues General government revenue did not change significantly Receipts from the EU budget Capital and transfer revenues, donations year on year in the first seven months. Growth in tax revenues, reflecting the favourable economic situation 8 and labour market trends, stabilised in the middle of the 6 year at around 3%; this was despite some one-off impacts 4 which prevented even faster growth.16 The fastest growth was recorded for revenues from the corporate income tax 2 (which contributed around two thirds to this year’s tax 0 revenue growth) and for social contributions. Tax revenue growth was almost entirely neutralised by the fall in -2 EU funds owing to the transition to the new financial -4 perspective -6 16 Revenue from personal income tax declined significantly year on year -8 Jan-Jul in July as a result of considerably higher tax refunds. According to data 2016 from the balance sheet of the state budget for August, this downswing Source: MF, Bulletin of Government Finance; calculations by IMAD. has already levelled out. aaa Figure 29: Expenditure growth and contributions of individual categories to growth Wages and other labour costs* Expenditure on goods and services Interest payments Reserves Current transfers Capital expenditure Payments to the EU budget TOTAL EXPENDITURE (right axis) 8 The year-on-year contraction in general government expenditure is largely a consequence of lower inflows from the EU budget; however, some categories of expenditure are rapidly rising. Expenditures on wages and reserves17 are rising at the fastest pace this year. Some transfers to individuals18 and households have also increased since the partial removal of the austerity measures. The rapid growth of expenditure on goods and services slowed in the middle of the year while expenditure on investment, subsidies and interest payments continued to fall. -6 -6 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jan-Jul 2015 2016 Source: MF, Bulletin of Government Finance; calculations by IMAD. Note: *Labour costs include social contributions by the employer. Figure 30: Receipts from the EU budget, January – August 2015 and 2016 Total receipts (Jan-Aug 2016) Total receipts (Jan–Aug 2015) Structural Funds Cohesion Fund Common Agricultural Policy Other In EUR m Source: MF, calculations IMAD. Slovenia’s net budgetary position against the EU budget was positive in the first eight months of the year and stood at EUR 24 million. Slovenia received EUR 295 million from the EU budget during this period. Over half of this total comprised receipts under the Common Agricultural and Fisheries Policy; from the Cohesion Fund and Structural funds, only the funds from the previous financial perspective were reimbursed this year (EUR 98 million in total). This year only EUR 20 million was paid from the state budget for projects under the new financial perspective. With EUR 574 million19 allocated for beneficiaries in the first half of the year and the value of signed contracts standing at EUR 370 million, payments are expected to increase gradually in the months to come. 17 Almost the entire increase was caused by higher spending on funds for special purposes in June to cover extra spending related to mass migration. 18 Child benefits in the 5th and 6th income brackets, social assistance in cash, the eligibility criteria for state scholarships, the care supplement to pensions and school meal subsidies were all raised in 2016. There was also an extraordinary adjustment of pensions (by 0.7%). 19 Slovenia has been allocated EUR 3,012 million in EU Cohesion Policy funds for the 2014–2020 programming period. Box 1: Main aggregates of the general government sector – 1st half of 2016 The general government deficit continues to decline this Table 8: Revenue, expenditure and balance, and general year. 1 In the first half of the year, it totalled 1.5% of GDP, government debt according to ESA 2010 In GDP, % 2012 2013 2014 2015 Revenue 44.5 45.3 45.0 45.1 Expenditure 48.6 60.3 50.0 48.0 General government surplus (+)/deficit (-)1 -4.1 -15.0 -5.0 -2.9 Central government -3.9 -15.1 -5.1 -3.3 Local government 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 Social security funds -0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 Primary surplus (+)/deficit (-) -2.1 -12.5 -1.9 0.1 Consolidated gross debt, as at the end of the year 53.9 71.0 80.9 83.1 compared with 3.6% of GDP for the same period in 2015. This reduction in the deficit reflects not only the measures taken to increase revenue and prevent excessive expenditure growth but also the decline in capital transfers in a favourable macroeconomic environment. The primary balance, which recorded its largest half-year surplus since the beginning of the crisis in the first six months of the year and totalled 1.5% of GDP, was in surplus at the annual level for the third quarter in a row. Revenue growth in the first half of the year was mainly underpinned by increased revenues from taxes and social Source: SI-Stat Data Portal – National accounts – General government accounts – Main contributions, while revenue from EU cohesion funds aggregates of the general government, 30 September 2015. Note: 1 Some totals do not add up due to rounding. was significantly lower. The strongest growth among tax revenues was recorded in taxes on corporate and personal income; this reflects the favourable economic trends and labour market conditions which, in turn, enabled the tax base to be broadened. Revenue from consumption taxes was also up year on year, as a result of the increased readiness of households to spend and measures implemented to increase the efficiency of tax collection (fiscal cash registers). Favourable labour market conditions caused revenue from social contributions to increase. Of all the forms of revenue, the fastest growth was witnessed in revenue from property income, reflecting better business performance and the early payment of dividends by some stated-owned companies. The largest decline in revenues was recorded for capital transfers, which was due to the delayed absorption of funds upon the transition to the new EU financial perspective. The decline in expenditure reflected the transition to the new EU financial perspective, while some expenditure categories increased due to the relaxation of the austerity measures. The transition to the new EU financial perspective led to a decline in investment, while the gradual removal of austerity measures had the greatest impact on compensation of employees. The easing of austerity measures also contributed to the increase in social benefits and social transfers. Around two-thirds of the increase was attributable to social benefits and one-third to social transfers in kind. Restrictions on expenditure on goods and services, including transfers for current consumption in public institutes, were also lower at the beginning of 2016 than last year. This caused a rise in expenditure on intermediate consumption. Interest payments rose further, as government debt increased and was around 1.4 pps of GDP higher than at the end of the first half of 2015 despite its restructuring in favourable financing conditions. As a result of the sale of the concession fee for the use of a radio-frequency spectrum, expenditure in the category of non-produced non-financial assets was also smaller than in the first half of last year. The year-on-year decline in capital transfers reflects, among other things, the reduced spending required to cover the past losses of companies managed by the BAMC. The forecast for the general government deficit in 2016 remains the same as in the spring, while the forecast for debt is not yet known. In September’s reporting under the Excessive Deficit Procedure, the general government balance is forecast at -2.2% of GDP and the primary balance is estimated to record a surplus of 0.7% of GDP. Figure 31: Year-on-year change in general government Figure 32: Year-on-year change in general government revenue in the first half of 2016 expenditure in the first half of 2016 200 -100 -300 -400 -200 -300 100 Year on year, in EUR m 0 100 Year on year, in EUR m -100 -200 Total expenditureCompensation of employeesSocial benefits and transfersOther current transfersIntermediate consumptionInterest paymentsCurrent taxes on income, etc.Other taxes on productionSubsidiesCapital transfersOther expenditure*Gross fixed capital formation Total revenue Taxes Social contributions Property income Market output, outputfor own final use and other non-market outputOther current transfersCapital transfers(excluding capital taxes) Source: SURS. Source: SURS. Note: *Acquisitions less disposals of non-produced non-financial assets, changes in inventories and acquisitions less disposals of valuables. 1 Data on the deficit and all revenues and expenditures in the Box are derived according to the ESA 2010 methodology. selected topics Indicators of income inequality and social exclusion in 2015 According to the indicators available, income inequality declined slightly in 2015 but remained higher than before the crisis. The Gini coefficient dropped to 24.5%, which is 1.3 pps higher than in 2007. The income quintile share ratio (80/20) shows a similar picture. Gini coefficient after pensions and social transfers (%) Income quintile ratio (80/20; right axis) 25.5 25.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Gini coefficient (%) 24.0 23.5 23.0 22.5 Source: Eurostat. The rate of the risk of social exclusion is at its lowest point in the last four years. The same holds true for all three components of this composite indicator: the at-risk-of­poverty rate, the severe material deprivation rate and the share of persons living in households with very low work intensity.1 The at-risk-of-poverty rate dropped slightly with the increase in disposable income2 but remains higher than before the crisis. The at-risk-of-poverty rate fell for self-employed, unemployed and inactive people and for those on fixed-term employment contracts. Compared with the previous year, in 2015 the at-risk-of-poverty rate rose year on year for those on permanent employment contracts (both full and part time). This could be related to a higher number of transitions from false self-employment and fixed-term jobs to permanent employment3 amid a concurrent increase in part-time work. In terms of educational attainment, the poverty risk increased to the greatest extent among people with a tertiary level of education, which could be linked to the fact that they accept lower-paid jobs for which they are 2007 2014 2015 Income quintile ratio At-risk-of-poverty rate (%) 30 5 0 Fixed-term Permanent Part-time Full-time Self-contract contract employment employment employed Source : Eurostat. 50 25 20 15 10 Figure 34: The ‘at-risk-of-poverty or social exclusion rate’ 45 composite indicator and its components (in %) 40 At-risk-of-poverty rate (%) At-risk-of-poverty rate Severe material deprivation rate (4 of 9) The share of households with very low work intensity, aged 0–59 years (% of population) 35 30 25 20 15 At-risk-of-social-exclusion rate 16 21 Components of social exclusion (%) The at-risk-of-social-exclusion rate (%) 14 20 10 5 0 19 18 17 Source: Eurostat. 16 2 Since the average household disposable income increased 15 slightly in 2014 (the base year for income), the at-risk-of-poverty Source: Eurostat. threshold, which is calculated as 60% of the median equivalised disposable income, rose by EUR 21.08 per month. 1 Very low work intensity’ means less than 20% of a household’s 3 As confirmed by the analysis by Vodopivec, M., Laporšek, S., & total work potential. Any persons presented in more than one Vodopivec, M. (2016). Levelling the Playing Field: The Effects of sub-indicator are counted only once. Slovenia's 2013 Labour Market Reform, IZA Discussion Paper No. 9783. overqualified. Up 0.6 pps year on year to 4.7% in 2015, the at-risk-of-poverty rate among the employed has never been higher. The at-risk-of-poverty rate also rose relative to the previous year for those already belonging to the most vulnerable population groups. These include the unemployed (44.8%), single women (40.4%), single-person households (35.4%) and single-parent households (32.5%). crisis. Expenditure on old age rose the most in 2008– 2014 (by 2.2 pps). In 2014 the share of expenditure in GDP otherwise slightly declined year on year, with expenditure remaining almost unchanged while GDP growth increased. In Slovenia the percentage of social protection expenditure in GDP is below the EU average (which is around 29%). Table 10: Social protection expenditure by area, as a % of GDP Social protection expenditure – 2014 4 After two years of decline owing to the austerity measures implemented and changes made to social legislation, expenditure on social protection in 2014 remained at almost the same level as for the previous year. Expenditure on old age, which represents the lion’s share of social protection expenditure (43%), rose slightly, mainly as a consequence of a further increase in the number of pensioners. Expenditure on social exclusion not elsewhere classified otherwise expanded the most in 2014, but this accounts for only a small percentage of total social protection expenditure. This increase was mainly due to amendments to social legislation, which facilitated access to financial social assistance.5 Expenditure on disability, survivors and family and children fell for the third consecutive year. The decline in the latter was a consequence of the austerity measures implemented in this area. Expenditure on unemployment also fell, primarily owing to a lower number of unemployment benefit recipients.6 Table 9: Real changes in social protection expenditure by area real growth, in % 2008 2012 2013 2014 Expenditure – total* 2.3 -3.5 -1.9 0.2 Social benefits 2.5 -3.5 -1.7 0.0 1. Sickness/health care 7.3 -1.5 -6.1 0.3 2. Disability -1.0 -10.5 -3.5 -2.5 3. Old age 0.0 -2.5 2.4 0.9 4. Survivors 3.3 -7.3 -1.9 -2.6 5. Family/children 4.9 -7.8 -7.4 -1.3 6. Unemployment -9.3 -9.6 10.2 -11.7 7. Housing -24.3 94.9 31.0 12.3 8. Social exclusion not elsewhere classified -9.9 9.8 -0.1 13.8 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note:* Social protection expenditure as a % of GDP is calculated on the basis of the most recent GDP data available (First release, 31 August 2016). Among the sources of financing for social protection schemes, the amount contributed by the government increased in 2008–2014. This increase in the share of the government contribution can be attributed to the decline in the number of employed persons during the crisis, which resulted in an increase in the mandatory 2008 2012 2013 2014 Expenditure – total* 21.0 24.9 24.9 24.1 Social benefits 20.5 24.5 24.5 23.7 1. Sickness/health care 6.9 7.9 7.5 7.3 2. Disability 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 3. Old age 7.9 9.9 10.3 10.1 4. Survivors 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 5. Family/children 1.7 2.1 2.0 1.9 6. Unemployment 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 7. Housing 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8. Social exclusion not elsewhere classified 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 Figure 37: Structure of social protection receipts government contribution to the pension fund, which is financed from the budget in the event of a lack of funds. Social contributions paid by protected persons remains the largest component of receipts for financing social protection schemes. They account for a larger share of all receipts than on average in the EU. Regarding the share in GDP, Slovenia lags behind the EU average in terms of contributions paid by employers and the government. Social contributions by employers Social contributions by protected persons General government contributions 45 40 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: *Total expenditure is the sum of social benefits, administration costs and other 35 items of expenditure. 30 Social protection expenditure totalled 24.1% of GDP in In % 25 2014, which is a considerable increase on 2008 (by 3.1 pps). 20 This higher level of expenditure is primarily attributable to the growth of expenditure in the early years of the 15 crisis, demographics and the fall in GDP during the 10 4 According to the ESSPROS methodology, the latest data available for 5 Slovenia are for 2014; data for the EU average are not yet available. 5 In 2014 the number of financial social assistance recipients increased by 0 10.6% year on year. Source: SURS. 6 In 2014 the number of unemployment benefit recipients declined by 19.2% year on year. General government expenditure on cul­ture in 2014 and the number of persons employed in cultural activities in 2015 General government expenditure on culture totalled 1.1% of GDP in 2014.7 This expenditure comprises expenditure on cultural services8 and broadcasting and publishing services. In Slovenia, expenditure on culture has been falling since 2011 and was, in real terms, over one-tenth lower in 20149 than in 2008. As a share of GDP, it was above the EU average (0.6% of GDP) in 2014. As was the case in the EU, this type of expenditure did not change significantly during 2008–2014. 0.4% of GDP and was among the highest in the EU (the EU average is 0.1%). However, in Slovenia this figure also includes the RTV licence fee,10 which accounts for the vast majority of this form of expenditure. All major expenditure categories have declined in real terms since 2008. In 2014 the largest share of total expenditure in this area was compensation of employees (43.5% of total expenditure). The largest share of cultural expenditure is spent on compensation of employees. In 2014 this accounted for 40.2% of total expenditure, with around a third being allocated to intermediate consumption and a fifth to gross capital formation. Significantly less was dedicated to other purposes. Relative to 2008, the largest increase was recorded for the share of compensation of employees, due to the beginning of the implementation of the wage reform in the public sector and a larger number of employed persons, and the largest decline for gross capital formation The number of persons employed in cultural activities11 has increased since the beginning of the crisis, with this share of the total number of employed people relatively high by international standards. At the end of 2015 there were 25,300 persons employed in the cultural sector,12 a 4.4% increase on 2008. With the exception of book publishing and the press, the number of employed has increased in all areas. The cultural sector is characterised by a very large share of self-employed people: in 2015 they accounted for almost one-third of all persons employed, compared with only one-tenth in all activities together. In EELVSIHUDKHRFRMTBGFIBEESLTNLPLSKEUCZLU IE AT SE UK DE CY PT RO IT GR 2014 (the most recent data available), the percentage of Source: Eurostat. persons working in the cultural sector13 was above the EU average and had increased to a greater extent than the Expenditure on cultural services has fallen since the EU average relative to 2008. beginning of the crisis and this is mostly due to a decline in gross capital formation. In 2014 this category of employment, EU, 2008 and 2014, in % expenditure amounted to 0.8% of GDP and was above the EU average (0.5% of GDP). Its share in GDP has not changed significantly since the beginning of the crisis. In 2014 it was over a tenth lower in real terms than in 2008. There was a particularly significant decline in gross capital formation, with its share of total expenditure on cultural services dropping to just above one-fifth. The share of compensation of employees, which accounts for the bulk of expenditure in this area, increased the most during the 2008–2014 period (to 38.6% of total expenditure). Slovenia recorded higher expenditure on compensation of employees, intermediate consumption and gross capital formation than the EU average. Expenditure on broadcasting and publishing services has dwindled since the onset of the crisis but remains high in comparison to other EU Member States. In 2014 it totalled 7 According to the COFOG, general government consists of central, state and local governments and social security funds. The most recent data 10 The RTV licence fee has been recorded as a tax (D59) and not a sale of available are for 2014. service in the national accounts since 2008. Radio-television Slovenia (RTV ) has thus become non-commercial (covering less than 50% of 0 Operation of libraries, museums, art galleries, theatres, monuments, production costs by marketing activities) and hence a government unit. arboreta, zoological and botanical gardens, etc.; the production, operation or support of cultural events (concerts, stage and film production, art 11 According to the European definition of culture published in the ESSnet­shows, etc.); subsidies to support individual artists, writers, etc.); and the CULTURE European Statistical System Network on Culture (2012). provision of cultural services, etc. 12 According to the SRE. 9 Totalling EUR 421.1 million. 13 According to the Labour Force Survey. statistical appendix MAIN INDICATORS 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Autumn forecast 2016 GDP (real growth rates, in %) 1.2 0.6 -2.7 -1.1 3.1 2.3 2.3 2.9 2.6 GDP in EUR million (current prices) 36,252 36,896 36,003 35,917 37,332 38,570 40,004 41,416 42,885 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices) 17,694 17,973 17,504 17,439 18,107 18,693 19,376 20,056 20,770 GDP per capita (PPS)1 21,100 21,500 21,500 21,500 22,600 GDP per capita (PPS EU28=100)1 83 82 81 80 82 Rate of registered unemployment 10.7 11.8 12.0 13.1 13.1 12.3 11.2 10.2 9.5 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 7.3 8.2 8.9 10.1 9.7 9.0 8.2 7.5 6.8 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 3.4 2.4 -1.8 0.0 2.6 1.2 0.4 1.5 1.5 Inflation,2 year average 1.8 1.8 2.6 1.8 0.2 -0.5 0.1 1.4 1.5 Inflation,2 end of the year 1.9 2.0 2.7 0.7 0.2 -0.5 1.1 1.4 1.5 INTERNATIONAL TRADE Exports of goods and services (real growth rates, in %) 10.2 6.9 0.6 3.0 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.0 Exports of goods 12.0 8.0 0.4 3.3 6.3 5.3 5.9 5.8 5.1 Exports of services 3.4 2.5 1.5 1.9 3.4 6.5 4.9 4.3 4.4 Imports of goods and services (real growth rates, in %) 6.8 5.0 -3.7 2.1 4.2 4.6 5.3 5.9 5.1 Imports of goods 7.6 6.0 -4.3 2.9 3.8 5.0 5.8 6.2 5.2 Imports of services 3.1 -0.4 0.2 -3.1 6.3 2.2 2.8 4.3 4.4 Current account balance3, in EUR million -43 68 930 1,732 2,325 1,998 2,700 2,326 2,272 As a per cent share relative to GDP -0.1 0.2 2.6 4.8 6.2 5.2 6.7 5.6 5.3 Gross external debt, in EUR million 42,123 41,669 42,872 41,658 46,314 44,723 44,727* As a per cent share relative to GDP 116.2 112.9 119.1 116.0 124.1 116.0 Ratio of USD to EUR 1.327 1.392 1.286 1.328 1.329 1.110 1.116 1.118 1.118 DOMESTIC DEMAND Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) 1.3 0.0 -2.5 -4.0 2.0 0.5 2.3 2.2 2.0 As a % of GDP 56.0 56.0 56.8 55.0 54.0 52.1 51.3 51.3 51.1 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) -0.5 -0.7 -2.2 -2.1 -1.2 2.5 2.0 1.3 0.7 As a % of GDP 20.3 20.4 20.3 19.7 18.7 18.7 18.8 18.8 18.5 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) -13.3 -4.9 -8.8 3.2 1.4 1.0 -4.0 6.0 5.0 As a % of GDP 21.3 20.2 19.3 20.0 19.6 19.5 18.2 19.0 19.7 Sources of data: SURS, BoS, Eurostat, calculations and forecasts by IMAD (Autumn Forecast, September 2015). Notes: 1Measured in purchasing power standard; 2Consumer price index; 3 Balance of payments statistics; *End July 2016. PRODUCTION 2013 2014 2015 2014 2015 2016 2014 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 8 9 10 11 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D -0.9 2.2 5.6 2.3 3.1 2.6 6.7 5.2 5.5 5.2 4.9 7.8 -1.3 4.7 2.9 1.5 B Mining and quarrying 1.3 -3.8 0.4 33.0 -9.6 -28.1 0.4 -14.4 -1.9 23.3 8.6 -7.6 -25.3 20.3 -4.5 -24.1 C Manufacturing -1.5 4.3 6.0 3.1 5.1 5.6 6.8 5.8 6.3 5.3 6.2 9.4 1.2 6.4 5.1 3.8 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 3.9 -14.2 2.5 -10.0 -11.5 -16.1 5.8 2.4 -0.5 2.2 -6.6 -5.9 -15.7 -13.0 -16.2 -13.7 CONSTRUCTION,2 real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total -2.5 19.5 -8.1 40.0 19.8 -3.3 0.3 -8.9 -12.5 -8.3 -31.3 -19.5 27.3 6.8 -1.8 -10.5 Buildings -20.4 3.8 -4.0 6.5 8.0 -4.5 -5.3 -1.1 -5.6 -4.2 -6.6 -11.6 15.8 -3.9 -5.2 -12.4 Civil engineering 6.3 26.5 -9.8 55.7 25.1 -1.9 2.5 -11.5 -15.2 -10.0 -39.9 -22.3 32.5 11.6 0.4 -8.6 MARKET SERVICES, year-on-year growth rates, % Services, total -0.7 3.7 5.4 3.1 5.4 2.2 3.7 4.2 5.0 8.5 5.0 4.1 4.3 3.7 2.8 0.6 Transportation and storage -0.1 6.2 3.2 6.1 7.0 4.5 2.3 3.1 2.2 5.2 3.8 4.1 3.6 9.8 2.5 2.4 Information and communication activities 0.4 1.1 4.6 -0.3 0.6 -0.5 1.4 1.7 4.5 10.2 3.7 4.2 -0.4 -1.0 -0.3 -0.7 Professional, scientific and technical activities -2.1 -1.8 3.5 -2.5 6.6 -5.7 3.5 -0.4 2.6 7.7 0.8 0.8 9.8 -4.1 -0.5 -9.0 Administrative and support service activities 3.7 2.5 11.6 -1.6 1.8 10.1 14.2 15.5 9.7 8.0 12.4 6.5 -0.7 2.0 8.8 9.6 Distributive trades, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* -1.0 2.4 5.7 -1.2 5.7 2.6 4.9 6.8 4.5 6.6 9.0 9.0 1.1 7.9 2.9 0.7 Real turnover in retail trade -3.7 0.0 1.1 -1.0 2.3 -0.8 0.8 1.4 0.4 1.6 2.2 2.0 -0.8 4.8 -0.7 -1.3 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles 4.7 7.2 13.9 -1.7 12.8 9.0 11.8 15.8 12.9 15.3 23.1 24.2 5.7 13.6 9.4 4.0 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade -0.2 3.8 1.3 3.0 6.0 0.1 0.2 1.5 0.6 3.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 9.4 1.6 0.1 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, %, new methodology from 2009 onwards Total, overnight stays 0.3 -0.5 7.2 2.9 -3.4 3.9 6.8 7.0 9.1 3.3 9.6 0.9 -1.3 -4.7 6.0 -0.7 Domestic tourists, overnight stays -3.4 -3.5 6.3 -1.2 -7.7 1.6 6.8 4.9 8.7 3.4 1.3 1.0 -8.7 -5.8 8.2 -0.7 Foreign tourists, overnight stays 2.8 1.4 7.7 5.3 -1.4 5.6 6.9 8.2 9.3 3.2 17.4 0.8 2.1 -4.2 4.5 -0.7 Accommodation and food service activities -1.4 0.3 7.3 2.0 -1.8 -1.1 5.0 6.4 8.4 9.3 9.8 8.2 1.3 -4.5 0.5 -2.0 AGRICULTURE, y-o-y growth rates, % Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EUR m 478.4 506.9 472.9 122.8 132.5 138.0 102.5 111.3 123.6 135.5 104.6 110.1 38.8 45.7 47.4 40.9 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**) Sentiment indicator -13.3 -2.3 5.2 -2.2 -0.2 1.4 4.5 4.9 5.3 5.9 3.7 4.5 -1.7 0.0 2.0 0.7 Confidence indicator - in manufacturing -5 2 6 3 3 3 7 5 5 7 5 6 2 1 2 2 - in construction -22 -11 -14 -9 -10 -12 -10 -14 -17 -15 -17 -14 -12 -11 -10 -13 - in services -12 5 16 6 7 11 15 16 16 19 17 19 7 7 11 12 - in retail trade 2 9 15 8 10 17 17 16 14 14 24 13 9 9 18 19 Consumer confidence indicator -33 -22 -11 -25 -17 -17 -15 -10 -8 -12 -18 -17 -21 -14 -13 -20 Source of data: SURS. Note: 1Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. *Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels. **Seasonally adjusted data. 2014 2015 2016 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 3.5 4.0 7.5 8.4 0.9 6.1 8.4 2.6 8.4 6.2 3.5 8.4 3.6 3.3 8.2 3.4 7.8 9.0 6.6 2.5 - - -52.5 -15.8 -5.2 29.3 -36.6 -0.8 6.8 11.4 9.3 -21.1 -10.8 27.4 77.5 9.5 7.0 9.3 -8.1 -5.9 -8.9 -24.1 - - 8.3 4.1 7.4 8.7 1.6 6.8 9.0 3.1 9.0 7.3 4.0 8.6 3.1 4.3 9.9 4.5 9.7 10.7 8.0 4.1 - - -18.1 4.4 9.2 4.1 2.1 0.6 4.7 -3.0 1.8 -0.1 2.6 3.6 0.7 -5.8 -6.0 -8.1 -7.4 -5.1 -5.3 -8.1 - - 4.6 -2.7 6.0 -1.5 -6.9 -8.9 -10.5 -12.8 -13.8 -10.7 -11.6 7.0 -22.2 -25.9 -29.7 -36.0 -27.4 -19.5 -12.5 -7.4 - - 7.0 -0.3 -6.5 -8.2 -5.4 1.0 0.9 -2.9 -11.3 -1.7 -7.0 2.6 -8.1 -9.4 -2.8 -7.5 -12.3 -13.4 -9.4 10.7 - - 4.4 -4.2 11.8 0.8 -7.5 -12.2 -14.3 -16.5 -15.1 -14.1 -13.2 8.5 -28.3 -32.2 -39.3 -45.1 -32.5 -21.7 -13.6 -13.9 - - 3.2 0.7 6.0 4.4 2.0 4.1 6.3 4.6 5.7 4.7 6.4 12.3 7.0 4.7 6.5 3.8 3.8 4.5 4.0 -0.5 - - 8.9 -2.0 5.7 3.1 0.8 2.1 6.2 2.4 3.9 0.6 3.9 8.6 3.3 3.6 5.5 2.3 3.7 4.2 4.3 -3.8 -0.6 -0.9 3.2 2.0 2.9 0.3 1.8 2.2 4.8 6.6 4.6 15.0 10.9 3.2 3.5 4.4 3.5 3.8 5.3 1.6 -7.1 2.8 5.8 2.1 -4.5 2.5 1.0 2.6 2.2 2.9 7.2 13.6 3.1 -0.7 2.1 0.9 0.1 2.9 -0.6 -8.5 12.0 13.4 12.8 16.2 12.4 13.5 20.2 8.7 9.9 10.5 9.7 10.8 3.6 12.4 13.5 11.6 8.0 8.4 3.5 8.7 - - 4.2 2.0 6.4 6.4 2.7 8.1 9.8 3.5 4.9 5.1 3.8 7.8 8.3 6.0 13.3 7.9 8.5 10.8 7.8 5.1 - - -0.3 -1.3 2.9 0.7 -0.9 2.5 2.6 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.4 1.8 2.8 0.8 3.7 2.0 0.4 1.5 4.1 1.2 - - 13.9 7.7 12.3 15.4 8.9 17.6 21.4 9.7 15.9 13.1 9.4 19.9 16.8 15.7 33.0 21.1 25.4 30.6 17.1 12.0 - - -1.4 -6.8 3.4 4.4 -2.2 1.8 5.0 0.8 0.3 0.8 -2.1 5.6 5.9 -0.2 2.1 -1.1 -1.9 2.9 1.6 -6.0 - - 5.6 6.2 12.4 2.2 6.1 8.1 6.7 10.9 8.7 7.0 1.1 0.6 8.8 9.3 7.0 12.8 -0.4 2.5 0.4 8.1 - - -3.6 9.6 9.9 1.0 10.5 -2.9 7.4 8.3 10.2 6.4 0.9 5.0 5.1 6.8 2.7 -5.0 8.5 -0.5 -3.1 2.3 - - 13.9 4.0 15.7 3.2 3.7 14.2 6.3 12.1 8.1 7.3 1.2 -3.0 11.7 11.0 12.5 28.8 -5.7 3.9 2.3 10.9 - - -1.9 6.0 5.8 3.4 2.2 9.0 8.2 10.3 8.0 7.0 6.2 8.7 13.0 7.8 12.6 9.1 8.9 6.5 9.1 13.9 - - 49.7 34.1 32.1 36.3 37.1 37.0 37.2 43.3 36.2 44.2 49.0 40.3 46.2 33.7 34.2 36.7 36.0 37.3 36.8 39.1 - - 1.6 3.6 4.3 5.6 4.6 5.1 4.9 3.4 6.8 5.7 5.8 5.4 6.6 4 3.5 3.7 5.9 3.5 4.2 5.1 6.4 5.9 4 5 6 9 4 6 5 5 7 4 7 6 7 5 5 4 8 5 5 4 7 3 -12 -12 -10 -8 -14 -14 -13 -15 -15 -20 -16 -15 -15 -16 -15 -19 -15 -15 -13 -12 -8 -2 11 12 16 16 17 16 15 15 16 17 18 19 19 16 17 19 22 17 18 19 17 18 13 23 19 9 24 18 5 5 15 22 15 15 12 28 23 21 10 13 17 19 23 29 -17 -14 -17 -14 -12 -11 -6 -14 -5 -6 -11 -14 -10 -16 -19 -19 -17 -18 -16 -13 -12 -12 LABOUR MARKET 2013 2014 2015 2014 2015 2016 2014 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 8 9 10 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 913.4 917.9 917.4 919.8 917.5 921.3 919.7 917.5 914.5 917.8 917.8 919.7 916.5 918.1 922.3 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)1 793.6 797.8 804.6 799.6 803.0 804.4 798.0 805.0 807.1 808.5 803.0 817.2 801.7 805.5 806.4 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 38.2 35.4 29.9 37.1 37.5 35.1 32.8 30.5 29.4 26.9 23.9 23.8 37.5 37.6 35.2 In industry, construction 252.2 252.4 255.2 252.9 254.1 253.8 250.4 255.2 257.3 257.9 254.7 260.7 253.7 254.7 255.5 Of which: in manufacturing 177.7 178.3 181.0 178.2 178.6 179.2 178.8 179.9 181.6 183.6 184.1 186.2 178.5 179.0 179.4 in construction 54.3 54.0 54.3 54.6 55.4 54.5 51.8 55.3 55.7 54.5 50.9 54.6 55.1 55.7 55.9 In services 503.2 510.0 519.6 509.7 511.4 515.5 514.9 519.3 520.4 523.7 524.4 532.7 510.5 513.2 515.7 Of which: in public administration 49.1 48.8 48.1 49.0 49.0 48.5 48.1 48.2 48.3 48.0 48.1 48.4 48.9 48.9 48.7 in education, health-services, social work 121.0 122.2 124.0 122.4 121.6 123.1 123.3 124.1 123.3 125.5 125.9 127.6 121.1 122.4 122.9 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 698.7 703.0 713.1 703.5 706.1 708.8 704.2 712.9 715.9 719.3 716.2 730.2 704.9 708.2 710.9 In enterprises and organisations 647.6 652.6 662.3 653.1 654.7 657.2 654.6 661.5 664.6 668.6 667.5 679.6 653.6 656.4 658.6 By those self-employed 51.1 50.5 50.8 50.4 51.3 51.6 49.7 51.4 51.4 50.6 48.7 50.7 51.3 51.7 52.3 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 94.9 94.8 91.6 96.1 97.0 95.6 93.8 92.1 91.1 89.2 86.9 87.0 96.9 97.4 95.5 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 119.8 120.1 112.7 120.2 114.5 116.9 121.6 112.5 107.4 109.3 114.8 102.5 114.8 112.6 115.9 Female 57.4 59.6 57.5 59.4 58.4 59.6 60.0 57.7 55.9 56.2 56.6 52.3 58.6 57.7 59.9 By age: 15 to 29 28.8 30.4 26.8 30.5 27.4 30.2 30.0 26.5 23.9 26.7 26.1 21.7 27.4 26.7 30.4 aged over 50 38.9 37.3 36.7 37.7 36.5 36.0 37.8 36.8 36.2 36.1 38.6 36.8 36.6 35.9 35.7 Primary education or less 34.2 33.8 32.3 33.8 32.1 32.8 35.3 32.0 30.5 31.2 33.8 30.0 32.0 31.7 32.0 For more than 1 year 55.4 59.9 59.7 59.9 59.1 59.7 61.1 60.1 59.1 58.4 58.5 56.0 58.9 59.2 59.5 Those receiving benefits 33.0 26.6 23.7 26.2 23.9 23.7 28.7 22.4 21.4 22.2 28.9 21.3 23.8 23.2 23.2 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 13.1 13.1 12.3 13.1 12.5 12.7 13.2 12.3 11.7 11.9 12.5 11.1 12.5 12.3 12.6 Male 12.5 12.0 11.1 12.1 11.1 11.4 12.3 11.0 10.3 10.7 11.8 10.1 11.2 10.9 11.1 Female 13.8 14.3 13.7 14.2 14.1 14.2 14.4 13.8 13.4 13.4 13.4 12.4 14.2 13.9 14.3 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE 6.0 -4.6 -6.4 -9.4 -4.8 6.9 -1.4 -7.9 -5.5 8.3 -2.9 -10.4 -1.4 -2.2 3.3 New unemployed first-job seekers 19.1 18.5 15.8 2.7 3.3 8.4 3.5 2.2 2.8 7.4 3.0 2.0 0.8 1.7 5.9 Redundancies 88.7 83.9 81.3 17.3 17.7 23.1 24.4 16.3 17.3 23.3 23.8 15.4 4.8 6.3 7.1 Registered unemployed who found employment 65.1 74.0 71.0 21.4 16.6 15.3 21.8 19.0 16.9 13.3 23.6 20.6 4.3 6.7 6.3 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 37.3 33.2 32.6 7.9 9.2 9.3 7.5 7.5 8.6 9.1 6.0 7.2 2.7 3.5 3.4 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 30.5 25.1 23.2 25.7 24.8 23.6 22.6 23.3 23.7 23.3 21.6 20.0 24.7 24.6 24.6 As % of labour force 3.3 2.7 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.7 2.7 2.7 Source of data: SURS, PDII, ESS. Note: 1In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly Figure for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. 2014 2015 2016 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 922.2 919.4 918.5 919.9 920.6 917.9 917.3 917.3 915.0 913.6 914.8 917.9 918.8 916.7 916.2 918.0 919.4 919.3 919.9 919.8 916.9 806.8 800.0 794.3 797.4 802.5 803.0 804.9 807.1 805.5 805.6 810.1 810.4 811.4 803.6 798.0 801.9 809.2 813.9 817.6 820.0 817.8 35.1 35.1 32.6 32.7 33.0 30.5 30.5 30.5 29.5 29.3 29.3 27.0 26.8 26.9 23.9 23.9 24.0 23.8 23.8 23.7 22.2 255.5 250.4 249.1 249.9 252.2 254.2 255.1 256.2 256.5 256.9 258.4 259.6 259.8 254.3 252.7 254.1 257.4 259.7 260.7 261.7 262.1 179.6 178.6 178.5 178.8 179.1 179.3 179.9 180.6 180.9 181.3 182.5 183.6 184.1 183.0 183.2 184.1 184.9 185.6 186.2 186.8 186.8 55.8 51.9 50.9 51.3 53.2 55.0 55.3 55.6 55.5 55.6 56.0 56.1 55.7 51.6 49.8 50.2 52.7 54.2 54.6 55.0 55.3 516.2 514.5 512.6 514.7 517.3 518.2 519.2 520.4 519.5 519.4 522.3 523.8 524.8 522.5 521.4 524.0 527.8 530.4 533.2 534.6 533.5 48.5 48.3 48.0 48.1 48.2 48.2 48.0 48.3 48.2 48.3 48.2 47.9 48.3 48.0 47.9 48.1 48.3 48.3 48.4 48.5 48.5 123.3 123.1 122.6 123.4 123.9 124.0 124.1 124.1 122.8 122.6 124.5 125.2 125.7 125.5 125.0 125.8 126.8 127.4 127.7 127.8 126.5 711.2 704.4 701.0 703.6 708.2 710.9 712.7 714.9 714.3 714.6 718.8 721.2 722.1 714.5 711.3 715.0 722.2 727.0 730.6 733.0 732.2 659.0 654.0 651.8 654.3 657.6 659.6 661.3 663.5 663.0 663.3 667.4 669.7 670.9 665.3 663.2 666.7 672.6 676.6 679.9 682.2 681.4 52.2 50.4 49.1 49.3 50.6 51.4 51.4 51.4 51.3 51.3 51.4 51.4 51.2 49.2 48.2 48.3 49.6 50.4 50.7 50.8 50.8 95.6 95.5 93.3 93.8 94.3 92.0 92.2 92.1 91.2 91.0 91.3 89.3 89.2 89.1 86.7 86.9 87.0 86.9 87.0 87.0 85.6 115.4 119.5 124.3 122.6 118.1 114.9 112.4 110.2 109.6 107.9 104.8 107.5 107.4 113.1 118.2 116.0 110.2 105.5 102.3 99.8 99.1 59.6 59.5 60.9 59.9 59.2 58.5 57.6 56.8 56.9 56.4 54.6 56.2 55.8 56.6 57.9 56.9 54.9 53.5 52.3 51.3 51.4 30.1 30.2 30.8 30.2 29.0 27.7 26.4 25.4 24.8 23.9 22.9 26.2 26.9 26.9 27.3 26.4 24.7 22.9 21.5 20.5 20.1 35.6 36.7 38.1 37.9 37.3 37.0 36.8 36.7 36.6 36.3 35.7 35.6 35.6 37.2 39.1 38.9 37.9 37.2 36.8 36.3 36.0 32.1 34.4 36.1 35.9 33.9 32.7 31.9 31.4 31.0 30.5 30.1 30.3 30.4 33.0 34.6 34.3 32.4 30.8 30.0 29.2 28.6 59.6 60.1 61.5 61.0 60.8 60.3 59.9 60.0 59.5 59.0 58.9 58.8 58.2 58.2 59.2 58.5 57.8 56.6 56.1 55.4 54.3 22.4 25.5 29.4 29.4 27.3 23.1 22.4 21.8 21.8 21.5 20.8 20.6 20.7 25.3 30.2 29.5 26.9 22.1 21.3 20.7 21.2 12.5 13.0 13.5 13.3 12.8 12.5 12.3 12.0 12.0 11.8 11.5 11.7 11.7 12.3 12.9 12.6 12.0 11.5 11.1 10.8 10.8 11.1 12.0 12.6 12.5 11.7 11.3 11.0 10.7 10.6 10.4 10.1 10.3 10.4 11.4 12.2 11.9 11.1 10.5 10.1 9.8 9.6 14.2 14.2 14.6 14.4 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.1 13.4 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.5 13.0 12.7 12.4 12.1 12.2 -0.5 4.0 4.8 -1.7 -4.5 -3.2 -2.5 -2.1 -0.7 -1.6 -3.2 2.7 -0.1 5.7 5.1 -2.1 -5.8 -4.8 -3.2 -2.5 -0.7 1.5 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.4 5.0 1.3 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 6.2 9.8 12.5 5.9 6.0 5.8 5.2 5.3 6.5 5.1 5.8 6.5 6.5 10.3 12.9 5.7 5.2 5.3 5.1 5.0 6.1 5.0 4.0 6.2 6.5 9.0 7.3 6.0 5.7 5.2 4.7 7.0 5.4 4.8 3.1 6.7 6.9 10.0 8.4 6.5 5.7 5.0 3.2 2.7 2.8 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.7 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.9 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 23.4 22.8 22.6 22.3 22.8 23.1 23.6 23.2 23.3 23.6 24.1 23.8 23.3 22.8 22.1 21.8 21.0 20.3 20.3 19.5 19.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 WAGES EUR m 2013 2014 2015 2014 2015 2016 2015 Q2 16 Jul. 16 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, nominal y-o-y growth rates, % TOTAL 1,556 1,566 1,550 -0.2 1.1 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 1.3 2.3 1.8 Private sector activities (A–N; R–S) 1,506 1,503 1,488 0.7 1.5 0.8 1.4 1.4 1.3 0.4 0.8 0.6 1.2 1.8 1.1 Public service activities (OPQ) 1,708 1,759 1,743 -2.3 0.3 0.6 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.2 -0.1 1.7 3.9 4.2 Industry (B–E) 1,555 1,546 1,527 2.6 3.1 1.7 2.7 3.4 2.9 1.4 1.9 1.2 2.1 2.2 1.6 Trad. market services (GHI) 1,381 1,386 1,366 0.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.3 0.2 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.6 0.8 Other market services (J–N; R–S) 1,679 1,671 1,662 -1.3 -0.3 -0.4 0.5 -0.5 -0.8 -0.5 -0.9 -0.5 0.1 1.2 0.3 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 1,315 1,280 1,321 0.8 0.7 0.2 -0.3 2.3 0.5 -0.7 0.0 -0.2 1.6 2.2 -0.7 B Mining and quarrying 2,003 2,036 2,031 -2.0 5.9 -5.9 8.3 10.7 2.0 -8.9 -4.8 -4.8 -4.9 1.1 1.6 C Manufacturing 1,515 1,506 1,487 2.8 3.3 2.1 2.8 3.1 3.2 2.1 2.3 1.8 2.3 2.4 1.7 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 2,317 2,301 2,280 3.0 2.6 -1.0 -1.1 6.5 -0.1 -4.4 1.7 -3.0 1.9 2.3 1.9 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 1,496 1,498 1,481 0.7 1.4 1.5 2.2 1.5 2.2 1.3 0.3 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.6 F Constrution 1,189 1,197 1,197 -1.4 0.3 -0.2 0.7 -0.2 0.9 -0.7 -0.8 -0.5 1.0 1.5 1.5 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 1,415 1,431 1,400 0.4 1.2 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.3 0.4 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.4 1.6 H Transportation and storage 1,474 1,454 1,456 -0.2 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.3 3.0 0.7 1.4 0.6 -0.5 -0.1 -0.6 I Accommodation and food service activities 1,070 1,079 1,076 -0.4 -0.2 -1.0 0.1 0.6 -2.0 -2.2 -1.0 -1.0 -0.1 2.0 0.3 J Information and communication 2,096 2,076 2,055 -1.4 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.8 0.8 2.6 -0.2 1.0 0.7 1.1 0.6 K Financial and insurance activities 2,259 2,271 2,275 0.1 1.2 2.1 2.7 -0.2 2.3 3.9 1.9 1.8 1.0 2.0 -0.1 L Real estate activities 1,480 1,461 1,448 -0.3 -1.2 -0.7 -1.1 -0.5 -2.4 -1.1 -1.6 -0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 1,725 1,710 1,707 -2.4 1.1 0.8 0.5 1.5 2.2 0.8 1.7 0.5 -0.1 1.3 0.5 N Administrative and support service activities 1,020 1,044 1,044 0.0 2.4 0.4 2.7 2.6 1.2 0.3 -0.6 0.0 1.9 3.7 3.8 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 1,789 1,847 1,858 -1.4 1.0 2.1 1.2 2.1 1.5 1.8 0.7 0.4 5.2 6.8 4.9 P Education 1,648 1,697 1,652 -3.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.7 0.7 0.5 -0.1 -0.6 -0.3 1.8 3.9 Q Human health and social work activities 1,708 1,755 1,749 -2.0 -0.1 0.3 -0.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.8 3.6 3.9 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 1,613 1,651 1,617 -3.0 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 0.2 -1.1 -0.5 -0.2 -1.6 0.3 1.6 2.9 S Other service activities 1,346 1,325 1,311 -0.4 -1.1 -2.2 -0.7 -0.3 -2.2 -1.9 -2.8 -2.5 -1.5 -0.1 -1.0 Source of data: SURS, calculations by IMAD. 2014 2015 2016 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1.0 1.4 0.2 -0.3 1.6 0.8 -0.2 1.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 -0.2 2.5 1.5 1.1 3.5 2.4 1.4 1.8 1.3 0.2 1.0 1.7 0.0 -0.7 1.9 1.1 -0.3 1.7 0.6 0.7 0.4 -0.3 3.1 0.6 0.0 3.3 2.0 0.9 1.6 0.8 -1.0 1.0 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.9 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.6 3.0 2.7 2.8 3.6 2.2 4.1 0.2 -0.1 4.2 2.8 0.4 2.6 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.6 4.8 0.5 -0.2 4.4 2.5 0.2 2.7 1.9 -1.8 2.4 0.9 -0.1 0.1 0.4 1.5 0.8 1.8 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.2 1.9 0.6 0.6 2.8 1.4 1.7 0.7 0.0 -0.7 -2.2 -0.8 -0.1 -2.1 0.7 -1.3 -2.0 0.6 -0.9 0.1 -0.6 -1.6 1.4 0.6 -0.6 2.5 1.7 0.8 0.6 -0.4 -0.5 -2.1 1.5 -0.9 0.3 -1.3 -2.0 -1.5 3.6 -0.4 0.0 -0.2 -4.0 8.5 0.2 1.4 2.9 2.5 -0.9 1.3 -2.7 -0.2 0.9 5.5 -4.0 -20.3 -0.5 -1.0 -5.5 -7.7 1.8 -9.6 -6.6 -4.2 -5.4 -5.1 -1.5 1.4 3.4 -3.9 -0.4 9.2 -6.6 2.5 4.4 0.3 1.1 4.8 3.0 0.6 3.2 1.2 2.2 1.8 1.0 4.6 1.1 0.0 4.7 2.4 0.5 2.9 1.6 -1.1 -0.1 2.9 -0.4 -9.8 -2.8 3.5 0.9 0.6 5.7 -8.2 -6.0 -2.6 12.1 -4.5 -0.7 3.4 4.3 -2.4 1.7 6.5 -7.1 1.6 2.7 -0.2 1.0 3.0 1.0 -0.6 0.6 3.1 1.2 1.0 2.1 4.3 0.1 0.3 2.6 4.1 1.3 3.7 2.6 -2.7 1.4 1.1 -0.9 -1.0 -0.1 -1.0 -1.8 0.3 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 -1.2 3.3 1.0 0.5 1.8 2.3 1.5 2.0 1.1 -0.4 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.6 1.9 1.1 2.5 1.9 1.7 1.1 1.2 2.9 1.3 1.2 4.2 1.9 3.3 1.1 0.6 -0.1 7.1 1.5 -0.5 1.6 1.0 2.0 0.8 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.5 -1.6 0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.3 0.7 -0.9 0.2 -0.9 -2.2 -2.7 -2.0 -2.4 -3.2 -1.0 -1.2 -0.4 -1.3 -1.7 -0.1 -1.1 -0.8 0.9 -0.2 1.5 3.3 1.2 0.0 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.1 0.8 0.5 6.5 -1.4 -0.7 1.5 1.6 0.5 1.0 -0.3 1.2 1.2 0.1 1.4 1.8 0.7 1.5 -0.6 -1.9 -1.0 0.5 8.5 -1.8 5.1 2.7 -1.6 4.8 1.1 2.9 1.3 -2.9 3.0 3.0 -2.4 5.8 2.9 1.1 -0.4 -1.1 0.6 -2.7 -2.6 -1.1 -1.6 -0.5 -1.0 -1.6 -2.2 -0.9 0.0 -0.5 -0.3 1.0 0.7 0.2 1.0 -0.1 -0.7 0.0 2.3 -0.7 0.7 3.7 1.0 1.9 -0.4 2.1 2.0 0.9 0.2 2.5 -1.1 -1.4 1.5 -0.3 -0.9 2.7 2.0 0.4 1.6 0.0 -0.5 1.1 1.9 0.4 -0.1 0.5 -0.5 -2.0 0.8 -0.7 0.2 0.5 0.7 3.5 1.4 2.1 4.2 4.6 4.0 4.2 3.2 2.6 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.0 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.8 4.1 9.7 7.3 7.0 6.2 5.3 3.6 4.0 4.9 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -1.0 -0.8 1.1 1.7 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.6 0.5 -0.4 0.6 -0.2 0.2 0.9 0.2 -0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 2.6 3.7 4.0 3.1 2.0 2.4 2.3 3.4 -2.6 0.7 -0.5 -1.4 0.3 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -1.5 -1.4 -1.8 0.4 1.0 -0.4 1.5 2.1 1.3 4.9 1.1 1.3 2.4 -1.7 -3.0 -2.8 -1.9 -1.1 -2.1 -3.4 -3.0 -2.6 -2.1 -2.7 -2.2 -0.4 -1.8 0.3 -0.6 0.2 -1.4 -1.2 -0.3 -1.9 PRICES AND INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS 2013 2014 2015 2014 2015 2016 2014 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 8 9 10 11 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 1.8 0.2 -0.5 0.6 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 3.6 -0.3 0.9 -0.6 -1.0 -0.7 -0.3 1.1 1.5 1.2 0.4 0.2 -1.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 7.0 3.6 1.9 4.4 3.6 3.7 4.2 2.1 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.3 3.5 3.8 3.7 3.4 Clothing and footwear 0.2 -0.9 -0.9 -1.0 -0.1 -1.6 -0.9 -1.8 -0.4 -0.4 0.5 0.6 1.7 -1.2 -1.7 -2.6 Housing, water, electricity, gas 3.1 0.1 -1.3 0.3 -0.3 -0.8 -1.6 -1.3 -1.2 -1.0 -1.1 -1.3 -0.5 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 Furnishings, household equipment -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -0.2 -2.0 -1.6 -1.8 -1.9 -0.4 -0.8 0.0 0.2 -2.3 -2.1 -2.3 -1.1 Medical, pharmaceutical products -0.5 -0.1 0.5 0.7 -0.9 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.5 -1.0 -0.9 -0.5 -0.4 Transport 0.3 0.2 -5.1 1.9 -0.1 -0.9 -4.5 -4.4 -5.3 -6.3 -5.4 -4.8 -0.2 -0.9 -0.4 -0.1 Communications -1.2 -1.9 1.1 -0.5 -2.8 -2.8 -0.5 -1.3 1.7 4.3 4.0 5.2 -3.1 -3.4 -3.5 -2.4 Recreation and culture 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.0 -0.2 3.0 4.2 1.5 0.3 -1.6 -2.0 0.8 -0.5 0.1 1.8 3.0 Education 2.6 0.1 0.6 -0.2 0.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.7 0.6 0.9 Catering services 6.5 1.1 0.5 1.7 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.2 -0.1 1.0 1.7 2.1 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.7 Miscellaneous goods & services 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.9 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.9 1.1 2.9 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.5 -3.6 HCPI 1.9 0.4 -0.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 -0.5 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) 1.6 1.0 0.7 1.3 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.3 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total 0.0 -0.6 -0.2 -1.1 -0.5 -0.1 0.1 0.6 -0.4 -1.2 -1.8 -2.2 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.0 Domestic market 0.3 -1.1 -0.5 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.3 0.0 -0.5 -1.2 -1.6 -1.9 -1.2 -1.1 -1.0 -0.9 Non-domestic market -0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.8 0.1 0.7 0.5 1.3 -0.3 -1.2 -2.0 -2.5 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.8 euro area -0.4 -0.7 0.1 -1.5 -0.6 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.1 -1.3 -2.3 -2.5 -0.5 -0.1 0.8 0.8 non-euro area 0.3 1.1 -0.1 0.8 1.8 0.6 0.1 1.8 -1.1 -1.1 -1.4 -2.5 1.3 2.2 1.8 0.9 Import price indices -0.4 -1.4 -0.7 -1.4 -1.0 -1.2 -0.7 0.2 -0.5 -1.6 -2.2 -2.3 -0.8 -1.1 -0.5 -0.9 PRICE CONTROL,1 y-o-y growth rates, % Energy prices 0.2 -1.9 -9.9 -0.2 -1.5 -1.0 -9.0 -7.5 -10.7 -12.6 -13.2 -10.6 -1.9 -2.9 0.5 0.7 Oil products 1.7 0.7 -12.4 4.2 1.7 -2.0 -11.9 -9.6 -13.1 -15.1 -13.8 -12.3 1.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 Transport & communications 11.3 11.1 0.3 15.8 7.3 7.3 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 Other controlled prices2 -1.5 3.6 1.6 5.7 3.2 3.2 5.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 2.3 3.6 3.4 3.1 Direct control – total 1.2 0.5 -8.5 2.6 0.4 -0.1 -7.5 -6.4 -9.2 -11.1 -11.3 -9.2 0.0 -0.7 1.2 1.2 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS3, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate,4 nominal 1.0 0.3 -2.8 0.9 0.0 -1.0 -3.1 -3.7 -2.4 -1.9 0.5 1.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -0.8 Real (deflator HICP) 1.3 -0.1 -3.8 0.9 -0.7 -1.4 -3.6 -4.8 -3.4 -3.1 -0.7 0.8 -0.8 -1.2 -1.5 -1.3 Real (deflator ULC) -0.2 -1.8 -4.0 -2.0 -2.1 -2.0 -5.0 -4.6 -3.6 -2.7 0.5 USD / EUR 1.3282 1.3288 1.1096 1.3196 1.3051 1.2826 1.2534 1.2405 1.2515 1.2743 1.2886 1.2974 1.3316 1.2901 1.2673 1.2472 Source of data: SURS, ECB; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 The structure of groups varies. Data for individual years are not fully comparable to those published previously. On 1 July 2007, the electricity market was liberalised. 2 After a longer period of unchanged prices, at the beginning of 2013, the Decree on the pricing of mandatory local public services in the field of environmental protection (Official Gazette of the RS, No. 87/2012) transferred the responsibility for approving price changes to local communities. 3 Change of the source for effective exchange rate series as of April 2012: a new source, ECB; 4 Harmonised effective exchange rate – a group of 20 EU Member States and 17 euro area countries; an increase in value indicates appreciation of the national currency and vice versa. 2014 2015 2016 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.7 -0.5 -0.7 -0.4 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -0.6 -0.4 0.3 0.2 0 -1.2 -1.3 -0.3 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.8 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 -0.2 -0.2 1.1 1.3 1.4 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.1 1.8 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 -0.5 1.4 -0.6 -3.1 -2.4 -1.7 -1.2 0.0 -0.7 -0.4 -2.0 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.4 -1.4 -0.9 -1.3 -1.5 -1.9 -1.3 -1.0 -1.3 -1.5 -1.9 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -1.1 -1.0 -0.7 -1.1 -1.4 -1.5 -1.3 -1.2 -0.4 -1.4 -1.3 -1.4 -1.9 -2.1 -2.3 -2.1 -1.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 -1.4 -1.1 -0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0 0.5 0.1 0.5 -0.3 0.4 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 -0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.6 0.5 -2.2 -4.8 -4.6 -4.0 -5.1 -4.0 -4.2 -4.5 -4.8 -6.5 -6.7 -7.0 -5.2 -4.5 -5.5 -6.2 -5.2 -5.3 -4 -3.8 -4.5 -2.5 -2.6 1.2 0.1 -0.8 -0.5 -2.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 3.3 4.3 5.3 5.3 2.9 3.9 4.5 5.2 6 2.3 2.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.3 1.3 2.2 1.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 -0.8 -1.8 -2.3 -1.8 -2.4 -1.9 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.7 2.3 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.8 -0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.4 1.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.7 3.1 5.8 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.2 6.5 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.7 -0.1 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -1.0 -1.2 -0.9 -0.6 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.7 -0.5 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.2 1.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.4 -1.0 -1.1 -1.2 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -2.2 -2.5 -2.2 -2.0 -1.8 -1.4 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.9 -0.9 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.4 -1.9 -2 -1.9 -1.8 -1.7 -1.6 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.8 1.1 1.0 0.5 -0.4 -1.1 -1.2 -1.2 -1.3 -1.7 -1.9 -2.4 -2.9 -2.5 -2.2 -1.8 -1.3 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.6 1.2 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.0 -0.6 -1.0 -1.3 -1.6 -2.0 -2.3 -2.6 -2.7 -2.6 -2.3 -2.3 -2 -0.8 -0.6 -0.2 1.1 3.0 1.6 1.0 -0.2 -1.0 -2.2 -1.6 -0.9 -0.7 -1.1 -1.1 -2 -3.4 -2.4 -1.8 -0.7 0.3 -2.3 -1.5 -0.9 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.8 -1.8 -1.7 -1.4 -1.9 -2.4 -2.4 -3.1 -2.2 -1.7 -1.8 -1.9 -4.0 -9.8 -9.4 -7.6 -8.5 -6.7 -7.4 -9.0 -10.3 -12.9 -13.2 -13.5 -11.0 -11.2 -13.7 -14.5 -11.3 -11.6 -8.8 -8.5 -9.0 -5.7 -13.2 -12.3 -10.2 -11.5 -8.4 -8.8 -10.9 -12.6 -15.8 -16.0 -16.1 -13.2 -11.5 -14.3 -15.6 -12.1 -13.7 -11.0 -10.4 -10.2 7.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.1 3.4 5.7 5.8 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.1 1.4 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -2.6 -8.4 -7.9 -6.2 -7.4 -5.6 -6.2 -7.6 -8.6 -11.3 -11.5 -11.8 -9.8 -9.6 -11.7 -12.6 -9.7 -10.1 -7.7 -7.4 -7.8 -1.2 -2.2 -2.9 -4.2 -4.5 -3.6 -3.0 -3.2 -2.5 -1.7 -1.6 -2.3 -1.8 -0.3 0.6 1.3 1.9 1.4 0.9 1.1 0.5 -1.4 -2.6 -3.5 -4.7 -5.4 -4.8 -4.3 -4.2 -3.3 -2.8 -3.0 -3.6 -2.8 -1.6 -0.5 0.1 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.1 1.2331 1.1621 1.1350 1.0838 1.0779 1.1150 1.1213 1.100 1.1139 1.1221 1.1235 1.0736 1.0877 1.086 1.1093 1.110 1.134 1.131 1.123 1.107 1.121 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2013 2014 2015 2014 2015 2016 2014 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 7 8 9 10 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BPM6 methodology, EUR m Current account 1,732 2,325 1,998 596 642 582 435 462 641 460 729 826 291 14 337 297 Goods 708 1,181 1,498 291 305 312 348 382 424 344 497 495 133 -32 204 176 Exports 21,692 22,961 24,039 5,719 5,716 5,984 5,881 6,063 5,934 6,160 6,067 6,407 2,032 1,545 2,140 2,164 Imports 20,984 21,780 22,541 5,428 5,411 5,672 5,533 5,681 5,510 5,817 5,570 5,912 1,899 1,576 1,936 1,987 Services 1,732 1,697 2,019 432 566 386 394 524 609 492 469 588 187 218 161 127 Exports 5,317 5,558 6,025 1,383 1,596 1,402 1,260 1,511 1,730 1,524 1,373 1,558 553 542 501 478 Imports 3,586 3,862 4,006 951 1,030 1,015 866 987 1,121 1,032 904 970 366 324 340 352 Primary income -192 -125 -982 -49 -139 -45 -114 -331 -285 -252 -81 -152 19 -146 -13 6 Receipts 1,117 1,396 1,632 348 311 350 437 417 371 407 485 398 125 87 99 94 Expenditures 1,309 1,521 2,614 397 450 395 551 748 656 659 565 550 106 232 112 88 Secondary income -516 -428 -537 -78 -89 -71 -193 -113 -107 -124 -157 -104 -48 -27 -15 -12 Receipts 632 709 725 215 162 188 153 184 173 215 155 172 61 46 55 72 Expenditures 1,148 1,137 1,262 294 251 258 346 296 280 339 312 276 109 73 70 85 Capital account 187 157 371 62 141 -90 46 62 127 136 -39 -100 58 50 33 68 Financial account 1,042 2,377 1,772 603 745 476 569 557 478 168 349 189 325 3 416 103 Direct investment -47 -584 -1,238 -521 -365 186 -348 -45 -218 -628 -326 -259 60 -229 -196 31 Assets 24 155 278 51 -57 20 93 301 23 -140 143 19 74 -125 -6 126 Liabilities 71 739 1,516 571 308 -166 441 346 241 488 468 278 14 104 190 95 Portfolio investment -4,176 -3,968 2,929 -1,204 76 264 689 1,684 -993 1,549 584 799 -312 102 286 429 Financial derivatives 32 -3 28 -9 2 7 22 5 -9 10 -7 -9 4 -3 0 10 Other investment 5,227 6,843 166 2,328 1,106 22 226 -1,110 1,746 -697 87 -302 575 153 378 -354 Assets 632 4,815 -672 2,019 374 671 434 -1,478 1,225 -853 108 -582 313 -38 99 -245 Other equity 152 84 10 70 1 -1 10 1 0 -2 1 -1 0 0 0 0 Currency and deposits 564 5,037 -545 1,964 469 1,089 90 -1,272 1,273 -636 -272 -522 411 -4 62 -369 Loans 1 -299 -408 -48 -98 -75 -80 -224 -27 -78 10 -68 -69 1 -30 1 Insurance, pension schemes, and standardised guarantee schemes -10 8 -8 -3 -4 -2 12 -3 -15 -2 7 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 Trade credit and advances 19 -16 -4 83 -51 -252 341 27 -15 -357 314 118 -55 -109 114 101 Other assets -94 1 283 -46 57 -87 60 -7 8 222 49 -110 27 76 -46 22 Liabilities -4,595 -2,028 -837 -309 -732 649 208 -369 -521 -156 22 -281 -262 -191 -278 109 Other equity -29 7 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Currency and deposits -4,169 -831 -400 -54 21 278 -178 -301 -37 116 566 -302 28 45 -52 16 Loans -269 -1,246 -315 -297 -691 107 378 -82 -376 -235 -491 -114 -165 -256 -270 -52 Insurance, pension schemes, and standardised guarantee schemes 39 -54 3 -40 -2 -10 -7 4 2 4 10 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 Trade credit and advances -182 -144 -101 81 -46 36 9 3 -122 9 -78 147 -107 -3 63 87 Other liabilities 16 240 -25 -2 -13 238 5 7 12 -49 15 -12 -17 23 -19 61 Special drawing rights (SDR) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserve assets 5 89 -113 8 -74 -3 -20 23 -49 -67 10 -40 -2 -20 -52 -14 Net errors and omissions -877 -105 -596 -56 -39 -16 88 33 -290 -428 -341 -538 -24 -61 47 -262 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods 2,163 2,343 2,596 590 573 629 581 632 630 753 646 690 207 161 205 226 Intermediate goods 12,425 12,924 13,355 3,254 3,237 3,202 3,280 3,406 3,348 3,322 3,368 3,553 1,156 893 1,187 1,195 Consumer goods 6,960 7,668 7,989 1,874 1,887 2,134 2,003 2,040 1,904 2,042 2,059 2,178 662 475 750 729 Import of investment goods 2,573 2,774 2,968 696 635 796 658 713 720 877 718 808 230 182 223 267 Intermediate goods 13,635 13,417 13,803 3,364 3,366 3,403 3,453 3,541 3,376 3,432 3,335 3,541 1,188 974 1,204 1,200 Consumer goods 5,906 6,389 6,534 1,611 1,603 1,657 1,604 1,637 1,592 1,701 1,693 1,753 551 472 580 593 Source of data: BS, SURS. Note: The methodology of the Slovenian balance of payments and international investment position statistics follows the recommendations in the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual released by the International Monetary Fund. 2014 2015 2016 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 91 195 164 41 230 85 174 203 236 123 282 220 212 27 242 165 322 251 236 339 222 42 93 94 35 219 7 122 253 198 -5 231 183 172 -11 175 147 175 149 130 215 171 1,996 1,825 1,817 1,867 2,196 1,942 1,950 2,172 2,146 1,595 2,193 2,177 2,116 1,867 1,842 2,026 2,199 2,093 2,108 2,206 2,078 1,953 1,731 1,723 1,832 1,977 1,935 1,828 1,919 1,947 1,600 1,962 1,995 1,944 1,878 1,667 1,878 2,025 1,944 1,978 1,991 1,907 126 133 140 102 152 216 163 145 186 236 187 183 150 159 153 115 201 197 192 199 185 419 505 399 395 466 523 486 502 586 603 541 508 471 545 423 441 509 507 503 548 591 292 372 258 293 314 307 323 357 400 367 354 325 321 386 270 326 308 311 310 349 406 -49 -3 -25 6 -95 -97 -60 -174 -103 -75 -106 -119 -67 -66 -65 -14 -2 -60 -46 -47 -76 110 145 148 184 105 120 135 162 128 108 135 122 118 167 113 171 200 131 134 133 118 159 148 173 178 200 217 196 335 231 183 241 241 185 234 178 185 202 191 179 180 194 -30 -29 -45 -102 -45 -41 -50 -22 -45 -33 -29 -27 -43 -54 -21 -84 -52 -35 -41 -28 -58 53 62 46 53 54 61 53 70 61 53 59 76 60 78 55 52 48 61 54 57 58 83 90 91 156 100 102 103 92 106 85 89 103 103 132 76 136 100 96 94 86 116 46 -204 28 6 12 25 7 29 55 38 33 79 62 -5 -7 -17 -15 -35 -40 -25 -8 156 217 539 -19 49 41 163 353 141 15 323 145 471 -448 197 115 37 -68 136 122 305 44 111 1 -73 -276 -187 -26 169 -50 -76 -91 -387 -9 -232 -237 72 -161 -353 52 43 -48 6 -112 63 59 -29 43 83 175 73 -56 7 67 -8 -199 26 72 44 16 18 -16 122 -38 -223 62 132 247 231 110 6 123 20 98 454 1 33 263 0 205 370 -34 -58 170 -662 497 193 296 200 1,070 339 275 -1,044 -151 202 491 526 532 373 1,040 -829 477 197 124 323 -4 2 -6 20 7 2 0 3 -3 -6 0 0 -3 14 -6 0 -1 6 0 -15 30 742 -366 326 -186 85 -800 -162 -148 1,229 271 246 19 1 -718 40 -1,026 1,072 -169 -115 -17 19 567 349 541 -213 107 -1,053 -153 -273 1,091 -141 275 170 187 -1,210 -118 -245 471 -975 38 355 -66 0 -2 2 3 6 3 -2 0 0 1 0 0 0 -2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 690 768 462 -343 -29 -863 -230 -179 1,093 32 148 111 176 -923 -117 -393 238 -891 132 237 -3 -32 -44 -8 -49 -22 -45 -18 -160 -4 -27 4 -20 -13 -45 -11 -22 43 -31 -38 2 -21 -1 -1 4 4 4 -1 -1 -1 -5 -5 -5 -1 -1 -1 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 -30 -323 17 126 198 -84 65 45 14 -143 114 15 42 -414 71 117 125 -3 4 117 -45 -60 -49 63 46 -50 -63 33 22 -8 1 14 65 -18 175 -63 51 62 -50 -59 0 2 -175 715 214 -28 22 -253 9 -125 -138 -412 29 151 185 -492 -157 781 -601 -806 154 372 -85 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -17 278 -89 -65 -24 -112 -170 -18 63 13 -114 112 66 -62 45 803 -282 -728 192 234 107 -70 230 664 -225 -61 3 175 -259 -58 -361 43 -37 167 -365 15 -256 -250 -87 -100 73 -105 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 -31 -21 -365 228 146 -168 23 148 -173 -31 81 45 -4 -32 -252 132 42 -1 76 73 -80 -54 231 7 36 -38 23 -20 4 29 -34 18 30 -44 -35 32 98 -115 11 -14 -8 -7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 38 -27 24 -76 32 -43 12 54 9 -23 -35 21 -43 -45 27 28 -45 -29 2 -13 -18 20 225 346 -65 -193 -69 -19 121 -151 -146 7 -155 197 -470 -38 -33 -270 -284 -61 -193 91 202 201 169 192 220 204 212 216 232 167 231 246 243 264 177 222 247 227 229 233 N/A 1,099 909 1,030 1,061 1,189 1,142 1,095 1,169 1,207 935 1,206 1,219 1,160 944 1,063 1,125 1,181 1,179 1,177 1,196 N/A 707 698 607 625 771 615 658 767 696 471 737 701 694 646 603 687 769 692 699 787 N/A 272 257 193 210 255 240 232 241 248 210 262 271 283 322 206 236 276 275 261 272 N/A 1,195 1,008 1,092 1,136 1,224 1,231 1,133 1,177 1,200 976 1,201 1,205 1,161 1,067 1,033 1,118 1,183 1,137 1,208 1,196 N/A 554 511 494 533 577 537 527 573 568 459 565 590 565 546 483 582 628 595 575 583 N/A MONETARY INDICATORS AND INTEREST RATES 2013 2014 2015 2014 2015 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 233 263 2,327 209 227 228 229 230 230 237 246 263 265 282 Central government (S. 1311) 6,563 7,240 7,112 6,154 6,262 6,296 6,459 6,512 6,581 6,936 7,010 7,240 7,443 7,502 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 581 685 622 582 577 582 594 596 606 611 618 685 654 631 Households (S. 14, 15) 8,917 8,762 8,856 8,850 8,835 8,810 8,808 8,814 8,813 8,807 8,791 8,762 8,842 8,802 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 14,902 11,729 10,502 14,531 14,429 14,039 13,867 13,764 13,586 12,603 12,511 11,729 11,823 11,726 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 1,763 1,485 1,432 1,945 1,929 1,921 1,881 1,858 1,873 1,665 1,654 1,485 1,463 1,455 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 5,020 3,684 3,206 5,012 4,863 3,896 4,347 4,108 3,732 4,037 3,915 3,684 3,657 3,696 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 29,620 25,155 23,816 29,298 29,017 27,756 28,005 27,645 27,220 26,425 26,191 25,155 25,232 25,179 In foreign currency 1,097 950 824 1,036 1,025 1,019 1,010 1,011 994 986 973 950 1,059 1,003 Securities, total 7,026 7,469 7,059 6,731 6,845 6,763 6,933 6,987 6,968 7,240 7,326 7,469 7,576 7,615 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 27,051 25,843 25,885 27,187 27,067 26,577 27,060 26,869 26,318 26,492 26,309 25,843 25,930 25,800 Overnight 8,558 10,157 12,717 9,278 9,390 9,582 10,236 10,138 9,870 10,329 10,398 10,157 10,731 10,947 With agreed maturity – short-term 6,689 5,955 4,481 7,215 7,088 6,768 6,876 6,928 6,720 6,477 6,250 5,955 5,708 5,610 With agreed maturity – long-term 11,569 9,267 8,196 10,389 10,252 9,875 9,585 9,368 9,265 9,172 9,155 9,267 9,078 8,838 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 235 464 491 305 337 352 363 435 463 514 506 464 413 405 Deposits in foreign currency, total 487 510 655 496 496 508 510 516 538 528 535 510 566 604 Overnight 324 354 508 335 336 350 345 354 354 348 353 354 401 447 With agreed maturity – short-term 91 84 80 94 92 90 96 92 115 110 110 84 86 77 With agreed maturity – long-term 72 72 67 67 68 68 69 70 69 70 72 72 79 80 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.11 0.07 0.04 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 1.86 0.98 0.37 1.07 1.04 1.00 0.93 0.89 0.85 0.81 0.74 0.66 0.58 0.51 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 5.40 5.06 3.54 5.58 5.23 4.84 5.2 5.01 5.09 4.65 4.72 4.38 4.17 4.85 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 3.86 4.25 2.46 6.63 5.51 1.53 5.05 2.82 .. 4.66 3.07 4.50 3.89 2.40 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operations 0.54 0.16 0.05 0.25 0.25 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates 0.221 0.210 -0.019 0.330 0.325 0.241 0.205 0.192 0.097 0.083 0.081 0.081 0.063 0.048 6-month rates 0.336 0.309 0.054 0.430 0.417 0.333 0.305 0.292 0.200 0.184 0.182 0.177 0.152 0.126 LIBOR 3-month rates 0.020 0.012 -0.755 0.017 0.016 0.012 0.013 0.020 0.008 0.008 0.006 -0.020 -0.466 -0.889 6-month rates 0.080 0.066 -0.688 0.075 0.068 0.069 0.072 0.073 0.059 0.057 0.053 0.023 -0.403 -0.773 Source of data: BS, EUROSTAT. 2015 2016 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 445 642 838 1,045 1,299 1,488 1699 1,942 2,175 2,327 2,539 2,759 2,987 3,144 3,378 3,631 3,861 4,012 7,163 7,368 7,380 7,387 7,449 7,445 7,301 7,380 7,387 7,112 7,212 6,957 7,022 6,739 6,853 6,813 6,861 6,850 633 633 633 635 634 631 624 623 618 622 630 614 601 602 594 591 589 587 8,834 8,826 8,847 8,836 8,821 8,812 8,825 8,873 8,857 8,856 8,815 8,789 8,830 8,863 8,891 8,920 8,892 8,930 11,674 11,569 11,493 11,396 11,190 11,137 10,941 10,819 10,688 10,502 10,527 10,046 9,904 9,953 9,870 9,771 9,706 9,520 1,642 1,519 1,511 1,466 1,470 1,405 1,435 1,417 1,411 1,432 1,422 1,328 1,397 1,326 1,332 1,298 1,298 1,283 3,479 3,353 3,365 3,007 3,181 3,442 3,312 3,904 3,713 3,206 3,574 4,030 3,318 3,727 3,572 3,240 3,578 3,625 24,885 24,707 24,661 24,240 24,316 24,469 24078 24,532 24,226 23,789 24,152 24,088 23,407 23,796 23,552 23,026 23,272 23,149 983 957 955 937 904 874 845 839 839 823 794 802 778 758 751 759 743 717 7,539 7,566 7,574 7,512 7,486 7,494 7,478 7,606 7,568 7,079 7,178 6,795 6,812 6,580 6,735 6,777 6,836 6,848 25,389 25,884 25,894 25,715 25,974 26,073 25,652 26,330 26,442 25,885 26,315 26,067 25,869 25,689 25,697 25,364 25,725 25,646 10,842 11,200 11,458 11,533 12,080 12,278 12,130 12,991 13,244 12,717 13,255 13,553 13,405 13,504 13,668 13,819 14,274 14,478 5,350 5,302 5,217 5,032 4,896 4,743 4,664 4,341 4,325 4,481 4,393 4,251 4,174 3,984 3,942 3,777 3,697 3,507 8,762 8,916 8,707 8,574 8,411 8,513 8,349 8,410 8,322 8,196 8,148 7,702 7,595 7,572 7,390 7,110 7,077 7,040 435 466 512 576 587 539 509 588 551 491 519 561 695 629 697 658 677 621 601 585 612 620 616 616 623 618 651 655 674 687 686 658 684 708 683 686 442 433 464 469 468 475 484 478 498 508 529 544 550 529 553 561 540 550 81 75 71 77 73 69 71 71 82 80 79 78 75 69 70 86 82 75 78 77 77 74 75 72 68 69 71 67 66 65 61 60 61 61 61 61 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.46 0.39 0.37 0.36 0.31 0.33 0.31 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.20 0.20 0.19 0.20 3.34 3.49 3.5 3.39 3.38 3.36 3.34 3.39 3.14 3.16 3.06 2.91 2.75 2.71 2.57 2.54 2.62 3.39 4.58 .. .. 1.90 .. 0.81 1.71 .. 1.00 0.75 .. 1.85 2.58 3.84 2.16 .. 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.027 0.005 -0.010 -0.014 -0.019 -0.028 -0.037 -0.054 -0.088 -0.126 -0.146 -0.184 -0.229 -0.249 -0.257 -0.268 -0.295 -0.298 0.097 0.073 0.057 0.049 0.049 0.044 0.035 0.020 -0.015 -0.040 -0.061 -0.115 -0.134 -0.138 -0.145 -0.162 -0.188 -0.189 -0.802 -0.812 -0.791 -0.782 -0.762 -0.729 -0.729 -0.728 -0.784 -0.792 -0.752 -0.775 -0.760 -0.727 -0.734 -0.763 -0.766 -0.743 -0.707 -0.727 -0.704 -0.711 -0.710 -0.681 -0.672 -0.674 -0.754 -0.737 -0.685 -0.723 -0.698 -0.653 -0.646 -0.676 -0.688 -0.658 2015PUBLIC FINANCE 2013 2014 2015 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 12 1 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS–IMF methodology), current prices, EUR m GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 14,728.2 15,492.0 15,714.1 3,905.1 3,686.5 4,268.4 3,635.8 3,972.6 3,864.3 4,241.4 3,685.2 4,109.9 1,569.3 1,312.5 Current revenues 13,637.4 14,377.0 14,702.6 3,695.2 3,501.4 3,770.7 3,413.6 3,756.8 3,596.3 3,935.9 3,511.2 3,950.0 1,325.1 1,276.7 Tax revenues 12,648.4 13,191.6 13,746.4 3,317.0 3,237.5 3,491.3 3,252.4 3,524.1 3,277.4 3,692.4 3,344.3 3,659.7 1,216.2 1,221.6 Taxes on income and profit 2,137.4 2,385.9 2,584.6 686.3 466.3 637.7 601.7 786.4 504.0 692.5 634.2 811.4 236.6 207.6 Social security contributions 5,127.2 5,272.5 5,473.9 1,302.5 1,300.7 1,365.3 1,339.5 1,353.4 1,357.7 1,423.3 1,395.1 1,423.5 488.0 454.6 Taxes on payroll and workforce 23.4 20.2 19.7 5.3 4.7 5.4 4.5 4.9 4.6 5.6 4.8 5.1 2.1 1.6 Taxes on property 254.1 244.2 237.8 29.3 100.3 96.2 26.9 41.7 85.2 84.1 27.2 46.3 28.2 11.1 Domestic taxes on goods and services 5,027.4 5,191.2 5,347.1 1,300.1 1,350.5 1,369.7 1,246.0 1,322.2 1,305.9 1,473.1 1,233.7 1,365.4 462.8 504.8 Taxes on international trade & transactions 77.5 77.7 82.5 19.0 18.5 21.1 21.3 21.5 20.2 19.6 22.3 19.8 7.6 5.9 Other taxes 1.3 -0.2 0.6 -25.7 -3.5 -4.1 12.5 -6.0 -0.2 -5.8 27.0 -11.7 -9.1 36.0 Non-tax revenues 989.0 1,185.4 956.2 378.2 264.0 279.4 161.2 232.7 318.8 243.5 167.0 290.2 108.9 55.1 Capital revenues 67.1 51.4 96.3 10.5 13.1 17.8 10.8 16.2 26.2 43.2 14.7 17.3 9.8 3.3 Grants 32.7 18.9 12.2 11.0 4.3 2.3 2.3 1.7 4.7 3.4 1.3 1.8 0.4 0.4 Transferred revenues 52.7 4.5 20.6 0.4 0.5 2.4 1.2 0.3 19.3 -0.2 0.7 0.0 0.7 0.1 Receipts from the EU budget 938.4 1,040.3 882.4 188.0 167.2 475.2 207.9 197.5 217.9 259.1 157.3 140.8 233.3 32.0 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TOTAL EXPENDITURES 16,286.4 16,751.2 16,956.4 3,957.1 4,009.3 4,498.5 4,290.6 3,980.9 3,974.9 4,710.0 4,223.3 3,882.2 1,608.1 1,422.5 Current expenditures 6,838.4 7,042.1 7,168.4 1,692.4 1,581.3 1,845.9 1,969.7 1,678.3 1,608.5 1,912.0 1,977.9 1,775.0 591.0 637.9 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3,616.7 3,610.4 3,610.2 908.4 883.3 898.9 923.7 903.4 875.0 908.2 924.5 969.8 311.2 316.0 Expenditures on goods and services 2,238.9 2,232.3 2,311.2 538.8 546.9 615.6 502.5 558.9 546.1 703.7 536.4 554.2 253.6 154.5 Interest payments 840.1 1,097.4 1,042.6 221.9 131.0 292.6 497.2 178.4 148.0 218.9 489.5 181.3 3.5 142.8 Reserves 142.6 102.1 204.4 23.3 20.1 38.9 46.2 37.6 39.5 81.1 27.5 69.6 22.7 24.7 Current transfers 7,671.3 7,591.9 7,540.1 1,848.4 1,883.4 1,876.1 1,936.5 1,863.9 1,899.4 1,840.3 1,974.1 1,896.4 657.9 676.1 Subsidies 519.5 467.4 399.0 80.3 71.3 110.2 201.2 79.1 47.7 71.0 186.4 78.5 42.6 78.3 Current transfers to individuals and households 6,343.1 6,335.0 6,370.8 1,600.0 1,621.1 1,552.3 1,564.2 1,592.7 1,657.7 1,556.2 1,604.8 1,619.5 521.3 515.8 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 734.2 714.3 713.8 147.7 173.2 188.8 156.5 180.5 186.0 190.7 167.5 179.3 75.3 75.7 Current transfers abroad 74.4 75.2 56.5 20.4 17.8 24.7 14.5 11.6 8.1 22.3 15.4 19.2 18.7 6.3 Capital expenditures 1,031.8 1,444.4 1,520.0 269.8 414.6 578.2 175.3 285.2 350.4 709.1 98.6 114.7 285.2 63.9 Capital transfers 319.5 270.0 295.0 50.7 67.9 116.2 37.9 58.7 60.8 137.5 32.9 26.9 40.9 10.3 Payments to the EU budget 425.5 402.9 432.9 95.9 62.2 82.1 171.1 94.8 55.8 111.2 139.9 69.3 33.1 34.3 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -1,558.2 -1,259.2 -1,242.3 -52.0 -322.8 -230.0 -654.8 -8.4 -110.6 -468.6 -538.1 227.7 -38.8 -110.0 Source of data: Bulletin of Government Finance. Note: In line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the general government are not consolidated. 2015 2016 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1,075.2 1,248.1 1,440.0 1,197.2 1,335.3 1,310.4 1,325.9 1,227.9 1,429.6 1,388.0 1,423.9 1,329.1 1,178.8 1,177.4 1,352.6 1,393.4 1,364.0 1,160.6 998.9 1,138.0 1,327.2 1,151.4 1,278.2 1,199.6 1,260.8 1,135.8 1,367.4 1,245.3 1,323.2 1,233.9 1,132.1 1,145.3 1,299.7 1,299.3 1,351.0 1,152.0 945.9 1,084.9 1,272.4 1,036.3 1,215.5 1,087.8 1,153.6 1,036.0 1,287.9 1,178.2 1,226.3 1,176.4 1,080.9 1,086.9 1,244.9 1,217.0 1,197.8 1,096.1 202.6 191.5 323.0 187.7 275.7 81.3 210.2 212.5 206.9 228.6 257.0 214.8 212.6 206.8 219.0 289.0 303.4 63.8 440.4 444.5 455.0 449.0 449.4 456.2 451.3 450.3 453.5 457.4 512.4 465.0 460.6 469.4 473.5 478.6 471.4 482.7 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.3 1.5 2.0 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.7 10.0 5.8 9.0 11.9 20.9 25.5 29.4 30.3 32.8 30.3 21.0 11.6 9.0 6.6 6.2 12.0 28.1 29.7 361.2 379.9 482.1 375.3 464.8 517.4 443.3 345.1 582.2 454.4 436.5 462.9 393.8 376.9 469.4 502.9 393.0 507.2 6.2 9.1 8.0 6.7 6.8 7.0 6.6 6.5 7.3 5.8 6.5 6.7 7.7 7.9 7.2 6.2 6.4 5.5 -76.0 52.5 -6.5 4.2 -3.7 -1.4 11.4 -10.2 3.3 0.0 -9.1 13.7 -4.5 17.8 68.0 -73.4 -6.3 5.5 53.0 53.1 54.8 115.1 62.7 111.8 107.3 99.7 79.5 67.1 96.9 57.5 51.1 58.4 54.8 82.4 153.1 56.0 3.7 3.8 4.5 4.2 7.5 11.1 6.7 8.3 9.6 19.9 13.6 4.8 6.0 3.9 6.5 4.7 6.2 7.0 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 3.9 0.1 0.7 2.6 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 19.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 71.6 104.2 107.1 41.3 49.1 80.2 57.8 79.9 52.3 122.5 84.3 90.2 40.4 26.8 45.8 88.4 6.6 1.2 1,402.6 1,465.5 1,335.7 1,296.4 1,348.8 1,406.9 1,263.5 1,304.6 1,439.9 1,410.3 1,859.8 1,302.6 1,416.7 1,504.0 1,260.0 1,306.7 1,315.5 1,374.4 619.2 712.6 573.6 546.3 558.3 529.9 525.5 553.1 634.1 574.1 703.9 617.6 641.3 719.0 575.8 592.1 607.1 547.9 303.1 304.6 287.1 290.1 326.2 295.9 287.5 291.5 296.1 296.5 315.6 305.6 308.1 310.9 299.3 305.0 365.4 309.2 147.4 200.6 179.7 165.6 213.6 200.0 172.4 173.7 181.7 190.2 331.9 157.9 178.5 200.0 168.6 198.1 187.5 183.3 159.3 195.2 97.8 73.4 7.1 22.5 52.7 72.8 141.5 72.5 5.0 143.6 145.0 200.9 98.2 77.3 5.7 45.0 9.4 12.1 9.0 17.2 11.4 11.6 12.9 15.0 14.8 14.9 51.4 10.5 9.7 7.3 9.6 11.5 48.5 10.4 619.9 640.5 614.0 617.0 632.9 728.3 584.5 586.6 581.8 601.2 657.3 615.9 654.7 703.5 621.7 642.4 632.3 717.7 103.0 19.9 10.9 29.5 38.7 17.8 14.4 15.5 14.0 15.6 41.4 30.6 54.2 101.7 12.4 46.2 19.9 10.4 516.7 531.7 542.4 520.7 529.6 636.7 510.8 510.1 507.5 517.8 531.0 529.0 534.0 541.7 542.2 535.1 542.2 635.3 -3.8 84.7 56.0 62.1 62.4 71.4 58.4 56.2 57.8 54.1 78.8 47.4 63.7 56.4 55.0 56.9 67.4 66.4 4.0 4.2 4.6 4.8 2.2 2.4 0.8 4.8 2.5 13.8 6.1 8.9 2.8 3.7 12.1 4.1 2.9 5.6 43.5 67.9 93.1 83.3 108.8 116.0 111.6 122.8 166.9 153.2 389.0 25.8 34.3 38.5 32.4 37.3 45.0 70.4 17.0 10.6 20.3 14.4 24.1 16.0 16.6 28.2 29.7 40.7 67.1 9.8 14.4 8.7 9.4 5.9 11.6 7.5 102.9 33.9 34.7 35.4 24.8 16.6 25.3 13.8 27.5 41.2 42.5 33.6 71.9 34.4 20.6 29.2 19.5 30.9 -327.4 -217.4 104.4 -99.2 -13.6 -96.5 62.5 -76.6 -10.4 -22.3 -435.9 26.5 -237.9 -326.7 92.6 86.7 48.4 -213.8 Acronyms Acronyms in the text AJPES – Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, BAMC -Bank Asset Management Company, BoS – Bank of Slovenia, CPI – Consumer Price Index, DV – Value added, EBA - European Banking Authority, EBITDA – Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization, ECB – European Central Bank, EIA – Energy Information Administration, EK – European Commission, ESI – Economic Sentiment Indicator, ESS – Employment Service of Slovenia, EU – European Union, EUR – Euro, EUROSTAT – Statistical Office of the European Union, FED – Federal Reserve System, HICP –Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, IC – Interest Coverage, ICT – Information and Communication Technology, IEA – International Energy Agency, IMAD – Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, IMF – International Monetary Fund, MF – Ministry of Finance, MGRT – Ministry of Economic Developement and Technology, MSP – micro, small and medium-sized enterprises. MZI – Ministry of Infrastructure, NFI – Non-monetary Financial Institutions, OPEC – Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, PDII – Pension and Disability Insurance Institute, PMI – Purchasing Managers Index, PPI – Producer Price Index, RS – Republic of Slovenia, SITC – Standard International Trade Classification, SKD – Standard Classification of Activities, SMA – Securities Market Agency, SRE – Statistical Register of Employment, SURS – Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, TSA – Treasury Single Account, UL – Official Gazette , ULC – Unit Labour Costs, USD – US Dollar, VAT – value added tax. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities A – Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B – Mining and quarrying, C – Manufacturing, 10 – Manufacture of food products, 11 – Manufacture of beverages, 12 – Manufacture of tobacco products, 13 – Manufacture of textiles, 14 – Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15 – Manufacture of leather and related products, 16 – Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17 – Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18– Printing and reproduction of recorded media, 19– Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, 20– Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21 – Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22 – Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23 – Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24 – Manufacture of basic metals, 25 – Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26 – Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27 – Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28 – Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c., 29– Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, 30– Manufacture of other transport equipment, 31 – Manufacture of furniture, 32 – Other manufacturing, 33 - Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D– Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, E– Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities, F – Construction, G – Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H – Transportation and storage, I – Accommodation and food service activities, J – Information and communication, K – Financial and insurance activities, L – Real estate activities, M – Professional, scientific and technical activities, N – Administrative and support service activities, O – Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P – Education, Q – Human health and social work activities, R – Arts, entertainment and recreation, S – Other service activities, T – Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods- and services- producing activities of households for own use, U – Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AT-Austria, BA-Bosnia and Herzegovina, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, HR-Croatia, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IE-Ireland, IL-Israel, IT-Italy, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RS-Republic of Serbia, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America. No. 6, Vol. XXII, 2016