No. 1, Vol. XXII, 2016 Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3826 No. 1 / Vol. XXII / 2016 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Responsible Person: Boštjan Vasle, MSc, Director Editor in Chief: Jure Brložnik Authors of Current Economic Trends (listed alphabetically): Jure Brložnik, Janez Dodič, Marjan Hafner, MSc, Matevž Hribernik, Slavica Jurančič, Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič, Tanja Kosi Antolič, PhD, Janez Kušar, Jože Markič, PhD, Helena Mervic, Tina Nenadič, MSc, Mitja Perko, MSc, Jure Povšnar, Ana T. Selan, MSc, Dragica Šuc, MSc, Ana Vidrih, MSc. Authors of Selected Topics: Branka Tavčar ((In)solvency in 2015) Editorial Board: Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Aleš Delakorda, MSc, Lejla Fajić, Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, Boštjan Vasle, MSc Translator: Marija Kavčič Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Bibijana Cirman Naglič Print: Demat d.o.o. 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Contents In the spotlight................................................................................................................................................................ 3 Current economic trends .............................................................................................................................................. 5 International environment............................................................................................................................................... 7 Economic developments in Slovenia ........................................................................................................................... 10 Labour market .................................................................................................................................................................. 14 Prices .................................................................................................................................................................................. 16 Balance of payments ....................................................................................................................................................... 19 Financial markets ............................................................................................................................................................. 20 Public finance.................................................................................................................................................................... 21 Boxes Box 1: Oil prices in 2015 and their impact on economic activity .............................................................................. 8 Selected topics (In)solvency in 2015 ........................................................................................................................................................ 25 Statistical appendix ..................................................................................................................................................... 29 The Economic Mirror is prepared based on statistical data available by 5th February 2016. On 1 January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev. 2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, took effect. It includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses. All analyses in the Slovenian Economic Mirror are based on SKD 2008, except when the previous classification, SKD 2002, is explicitly referred to. For more information on the introduction of the new classification see the SURS website http://www.stat.si/eng/skd_nace_2008.asp. All current comparisons (at the monthly, quarterly levels) in the Slovenian Economic Mirror are made on the basis of seasonally adjusted data, while year-on-year comparisons are based on original data. Unless otherwise indicated, all seasonally adjusted data for Slovenia are calculations by IMAD. In the spotlight The EC and IMF predict a continuation of economic growth in Slovenia’s main trading partners in 2016, but point to increased risks particularly with regard to developments in emerging economies. The available indicators of economic activity and confidence in the euro area indicate a continuation of modest GDP growth in the last quarter of 2015. In 2016, the EC and IMF expect economic growth in Slovenia’s main trading partners to remain similar to last year. It will continue to rely particularly on the recovery in private consumption, which is expected to reflect the improvement in labour market conditions and significantly lower prices of oil. The latter also have a positive impact on profits, which, together with better access to funding, improves the prospects for growth in investment. However, the forecasts for growth in global trade and, consequently, exports are lower, given the deteriorating situation in emerging economies. According to both institutions, the main risk to the forecasts is an even greater slowdown of economic activity in these countries and related increased uncertainty on financial markets. Most short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia remained at the achieved levels towards the end of 2015. In the first eleven months of 2015, real merchandise exports and production volume in manufacturing were around 5% higher year-on-year. As in the previous year, they strengthened under the impact of positive developments abroad and the improvement in competitiveness of Slovenia’s economy in the last few years. They also have a positive impact on turnover in services, which increases gradually, also on account of higher private consumption related to the steady recovery on the labour market. Activity in construction remains very low, although it swung upwards at the end of the year owing to increased government investment. Confidence in the economy otherwise deteriorated at the beginning 2016, but remains high and indicates a continuation of the gradual recovery of economic activity. Towards the end of the year, the number of employed persons continued to grow; in December and January, the decline in the number of registered unemployed came to a halt. Employment growth reflected the strengthening in manufacturing and market services, consistent with higher activity in these sectors. Having declined since April 2014, registered unemployment rose at the end of 2015 and remained at roughly the same level at the beginning of 2016, the main reason being a larger inflow into the unemployment register due to the termination of fixed-term contracts. The number of registered unemployed was nevertheless 4.9% lower than one year earlier. The growth of average gross earnings strengthened towards the end of last year. November’s stronger growth in the private sector was a consequence of the highest extraordinary payments in seven years. In the eleven months to November, growth otherwise remained significantly lower than in the same period of 2014, which is attributable to the absence of price pressures and the rising share of low-wage earners amid companies’ efforts to maintain competitiveness. In the public sector, earnings increased further in the first eleven months of 2015, on account of the payments of suspended promotion raises in 2014 and further growth in public corporations. In the second half of 2015, Slovenia’s price and cost competiveness increased further. The improvement was mainly due to the decline in the nominal effective exchange rate and, in part, relative prices and unit labour costs. Last year, too, the decline in unit labour costs mainly stemmed from the tradable sector, particularly manufacturing, where the level of real unit labour costs was already lower than before the crisis. Consumer prices were still down year-on-year in January and the movements of import prices and industrial producer prices indicate a continuation of similar movements in the months ahead. Amid declining oil prices, deflation is still mainly due to lower prices of energy and durable goods, amid modest price growth in other product groups. The continuation of year-on-year declines in import prices and industrial producer prices at the end of 2015 indicates the absence of price pressures. The surplus on the current account of the balance of payments continues to widen; in the twelve months to November 2015, it accounted for 7.7% of estimated GDP. Last year’s increase was again mainly due to the higher surplus in merchandise trade, which, in addition to favourable export movements, also reflects better terms of trade. The surplus in services trade widened too, particularly as a result of the surplus in trade in travel and construction services. In contrast, the deficits in primary and secondary income were much higher than one year before. The surplus on the current account of the balance of payments reflected the total net financial outflows in the amount of EUR 3.1 bn attributable to the net outflows in portfolio investment and other investment, as direct investment recorded a net inflow. The decline in the volume of domestic non-banking sectors’ loans slowed last year; corporate and bank net repayments of foreign liabilities decreased. As a result of rising household loans and a smaller decline in corporate and NFI loans (excluding the transfer of claims to the BAMC), last year’s total decline of EUR 1.1 bn was less pronounced than that in the previous year. In the second half of 2015, corporate and NFI net repayments abroad stabilised, while banks’ net repayments slowed. As a result of the outflow of government and NFI deposits and a smaller inflow of household deposits, last year the total growth of domestic non-banking sectors’ deposits decreased by more than half despite the larger increase in deposits by enterprises, which we estimate can also be a consequence of their low investment activity. The general government deficit on a cash basis, which was down year-on-year in the first eleven months of 2015, is estimated to have widened by the end of the year according to the released data on December’s state budget outturn. This is a consequence of the pronounced growth of expenditures on investment and goods and services. In 2015, the state budget deficit (which accounts for the bulk of the general government deficit) was higher than in 2014, but lower than envisaged in the revised budget. Revenue rose, amid further recovery in economic activity and measures taken by the government, but less so than expenditure, although expenditure growth also moderated in 2015. EMU DE IT FR HR AT Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. The decline in loan volume slowed last year owing to growth in The state budget deficit, up on the previous year in 2015, household loans and a smaller fall in corporate and NFI loans. indicates that the general government deficit will also increase at the end of 2015. Enterprises and NFIs Households 1,000 Consolidated general government balance State budget 0 0.0 -5 -0.5 -10 Merchandise Industrial Value of Turnover in -1.0 exports production in construction retail trade manufacturing put in place Source: EC. Source: SURS. .. with further improvement in the cost competitiveness of Movements in the export-oriented part of the economy remain manufacturing the main factor in the recovery of employment and earnings. Real unit labour costs Number of employed persons in manufacturing (left axis) Gross earnings per employee in industry (right axis) Manufacturing, Slovenia Manufacturing, EU 190,000 1,600 Change in EUR m, 12-month cumulative RULC index 2007=100, 4-quarter moving average Economic growth in main trading partners expected to remain The recovery of economic activity in Slovenia at the end of 2015 around last year’s level in 2016 was still based on exports of manufactured goods ... 2014 I-XI 2015 2014 2015 Forecast 2016 (Jan 16) 25 2.5 20 Real change in GDP, in % -1,500 -1,000 500 0 -500 0.5 104 102 100 98 112 110 108 106 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Number, seasonally adjusted Balance in EUR m, 12-month cumulative -1,500 170,000 175,000 1,300 180,000 1,400 Year-on-year real change, in % -1,000 -500 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 1,200 185,000 1,500 0 5 10 15 In EUR, seasonally adjusted -2,000 -2,500 Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. Source: MF: calculations by IMAD. -2,500 Jan 11Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 -2,000 current economic trends International environment Figure 1: Short-term indicators of economic activity in the euro area Industrial production in manufacturing Construction output Turnover in retail trade ESI (right axis) 110 105 100 95 90 85 Seasonally adj. indicator value, 3-m. moving average Short-term indicators of economic activity and confidence in the euro area indicate GDP growth in the last quarter of 2015 and in 2016. Confidence indicators (ESI, PMI) improved in the last quarter of the year more than in previous quarters. The EC and IMF predict further growth in Slovenia’s main trading partners in 2016. However, downside risks increased, reflecting the slowdown and uncertainty about growth in emerging economies, including China and oil exporting countries. At the same time, uncertainty on financial markets is rising again. Jan 11 Jul 11Jan 12Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Source: Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. Figure 2: The ECB Euro Area Bank Lending Survey Credit standards for loans to enterpr. over the past 3-m. (left axis) Credit standards for loans to enterpr. over the next 3-m. (left axis) Demand for loans to enterprises over the past 3 months (rigth axis) Demand for loans to enterprises over the next 3 months (right axis) 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 Diff. between the share of banks expect. an increase and the share of banks expect. a decline in demand for loans to enterprises, in % The indicators of the ECB survey for the final quarter of 2015 indicate a further improvement in lending conditions for enterprises for all loans regardless of maturity and enterprise size and for household housing and consumer loans. In addition to higher competition between banks, a significant factor in the improvement is access to alternative sources of funding. The structure of loan demand is changing, as enterprises increased demand for working capital loans and inventories, fixed investment and loans for corporate restructuring, which is a sign of improvement of the situation in the business sector. Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Source: ECB. Note: A positive figure indicates an improvement. Figure 3: Oil and non-energy commodity prices Index 2008=100 Oil Non-energy commodities Metals Food 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 At the beginning of 2016, prices of oil and non-energy commodities continued to fall. After dropping by around half in 2015, the dollar price of Brent crude oil declined further to around USD 30 per barrel in January. According to the latest available IMF data, dollar prices of non-energy commodities also continued to decline at the end of 2015, having fallen by almost 20% in 2015 as a whole. Metal prices dropped the most, reflecting lower demand from some largest consumers of industrial commodities; food prices were also down. Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Source: IMF, IEA; calculations by IMAD. Table 1: Indicators related to the international environment average change, in %* 2015 XII 15 I 16 I 16/XII 15 I 16/I 15 Brent USD, per barrel 52.35 38.01 31.21 -17.9 -34.7 Brent EUR, per barrel 48.33 35.93 28.76 -20.0 -30.0 EUR/USD 1.110 1.088 1.085 -0.2 -6.6 3-month EURIBOR, in % -0.020 -0.126 -0.144 -1.8 -20.6 Source: EIA, ECB Euribor; calculations by IMAD. Note: * in Euribor change in basis points. Box 1: Oil prices in 2015 and their impact on economic activity The decline in oil prices in 2015 (by almost half, to the lowest level since 2004) was due mainly to increased supply and partly to weaker demand. In 2012–2014, oil prices were relatively stable, at USD 110/barrel. Relatively high and stable prices boosted investment in new oil wells and fields and the search for alternative sources of oil. Consequently, oil supply increased significantly in the last two years, by more than 5%.1 Meanwhile, growth in oil demand eased amid a relatively slow recovery in global economic activity. Oil prices thus fell from USD 112 to around USD 30 per barrel between June 2014 and January 2016. The decline in euro prices was otherwise less pronounced, given the concurrent depreciation of the euro against the US dollar. Figure 4: Oil supply and demand Figure 5: The structure of oil supply on the global market 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: IEA, EIA; calculations by IMAD. Note: For 2015, the first three quarters are taken into account. Source: IEA. According to analyses by international institutions, oil prices played a significant role in the recovery of economic activity in net oil importers, including those in the euro area.2 Oil price declines typically lead to a redistribution of income from net oil exporters to net oil importers.3 As these have on average a higher propensity to consume, global demand increases. A significant price fall, which results from increased supply, tends to lower energy costs and thereby increases household real disposable income, and, through lower costs of commodities, corporate profits. However, the EC points out that lower energy costs do not necessarily lead to higher growth in private consumption, as households’ decisions on how to use the additional income also depend on their propensity to consume and on how persistent low prices are expected to be. Companies can be impacted by lower energy prices through two channels, the cost channel (lower production costs) and the demand channel (the indirect effect related to higher demand, either from households or other companies). Despite uncertainty in calculating the effects of lower oil prices, international institutions agree that price falls made a significant contribution to the economic recovery in the euro area, particularly through the strengthening of private consumption, which became the main engine of economic recovery in the second half of 2015. Low oil prices are also expected to support the recovery in 2016. The IMF estimates that if oil prices were to remain low, global GDP could increase between 0.5% and 0.9% in 2016; according to the autumn forecast by the EC, low oil prices will contribute 0.2 percentage points 1 Particularly on account of increased supply from outside OPEC, but also because OPEC, unlike in previous years, did not adjust production levels this time. 2 For more on impacts of oil prices on economic activity see: ECB Monthly Bulletin (January 2015), EC Winter Forecast (January 2015), IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2015). 3 According to ECB calculations, a USD 60 oil price decline led to an overall net income redistribution of approximately 2% of world GDP. to the projected 1.8% growth of euro area GDP in 2016, despite the assumed stabilisation. However, these notable price declines have a negative impact on the economic situation in exporting countries and, indirectly through weaker foreign demand, on oil importers’ exports; the effects of price declines on oil importers are therefore not entirely positive. Lower oil prices also had direct and indirect positive effects on economic developments in Slovenia. The indirect effect is related to the positive impact on economic activity in Slovenia’s main trading partners, which is reflected in higher growth in foreign demand and, consequently, exports. Direct effects – as in other net importing countries – include the impact of oil price declines on household real disposable income and corporate profits. Given that Slovenia had the largest share of electricity, gas and heating and goods and services related to vehicles in household final consumption in the EU (18.1%; EU: 11.2%) and one of the largest falls in energy prices (-7.9%; EU: -5.6%), we estimate that oil price declines had a positive impact on household real disposable income in 2015. Lower energy and other commodity prices (lower import prices) also had a beneficial effect on corporate profits, according to our estimates. The purchasing power (or real income) of residents increased owing to the favourable ratio of export to import prices (better terms of trade). As a result of the terms of trade effect, Slovenia’s trade surplus widened by around EUR 400 m from the beginning of 2014 to the end of the third quarter of 2015, which is around a third of the total increase in the balance in this period. Figure 6: The effect of the terms of trade on net exports Figure 7: Prices of energy and their share in household and oil prices final consumption expenditure Energy prices (right axis) Price effect on the change in net exports (left axis) Price of Brent crude in EUR (right axis) The share of electricity, gas and heating, and goods and 80 services (vehicles) in household final consumption (left axis) 20 0 60 Year-on-year change, in % Share in household final consumption in 2014, in % 18 16 Year-on-year change December 2015, in % 200 40 14 In EUR m 100 20 12 0 10 -8 8 -10 -20 6 -40 4 2 -60 Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 14Q1 15 0 SILTPLHUSKLULVEECZBEITFRDKSEBGEANLEUDEATESPTFIMTIEUKCYEL Source: SURS, ECB; calculations by IMAD. Vir: Eurostat. Economic developments in Slovenia Figure 8: Short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia Merchandise exports Most short-term indicators of economic activity in Industrial produciton in manufacturing Slovenia remained unchanged at the end of 2015. In the Value of construction put in place Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. gradual recovery of economic activity in 2016. Table 2: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia in % 2014 XI 15/ X 15 XI 15/ XI 14 I-XI 15/ I-XI 14 Merchandise exports, real1 6.6 0.43 5.7 4.2 Merchandise imports, real1 3.6 -1.43 0.8 2.9 Services exports, nominal2 4.5 1.93 11.1 7.5 Services imports, nominal2 7.5 4.73 7.7 2.6 Industrial production, real 2.2 0.33 4.14 4.84 -manufacturing 4.3 0.13 4.24 5.24 Construction -value of construction put in place, real 19.5 15.53 6.0 -7.2 Real turnover in retail trade 0.0 0.53 1.24 0.74 Nominal turnover in market services (without trade) 2.7 2.73 10.04 3.94 Sources: BoS, Eurostat, SURS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1External trade statistics; deflated by IMAD, 2balance of payments statistics, 3seasonally adjusted, 4working-day adjusted data. Figure 9: Merchandise trade – real Merchandise exports Merchandise imports Real merchandise expor ts increased again at the end Seasonally adj. real index 2008=100, 3-m. moving Seasonally adj. real index, 2008=100, 3-m moving average average 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 110 5% higher year-on-year, but their growth eased slightly 100 in the last few months of the year. As in the previous year, they strengthened under the impact of positive 90 Turnover in retail trade 80 70 60 50 40 30 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 of the year, while imports declined.1 Within merchandise exports – which were mostly expanding amid growing foreign demand in 2015 – particularly exports of machinery and miscellaneous manufactured articles rose towards the end of the year; exports of vehicles, metals and chemical products, the main drivers of growth for one year and a half, remained unchanged. Reflecting the sluggish recovery of domestic demand, growth in merchandise imports lagged behind export growth. Imports had even declined slightly since the summer months, on account of lower imports of intermediate and consumer goods, while imports of investment goods rose. developments abroad and due to the improvement in the competitiveness of Slovenia’s economy in the last few years. They also had a positive impact on services, where turnover is steadily rising. This is also attributable to increased private consumption related to the steady recovery on the labour market. Activity in construction remains very low, although it swung upwards at the end of the year owing to increased government investment. Confidence in the economy deteriorated in early 2016, but remains high and indicates a continuation of the and production volume in manufacturing were around eleven months to November, real merchandise exports Jan 11Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Source: SURS; calculatons by IMAD. 1 The estimate of real merchandise exports is based on nominal exports according to the external trade statistics and industrial producer prices on the foreign market, while real merchandise imports have been estimated on the basis of nominal imports according to the external trade statistics and the index of import prices. Detailed data on the structure of merchandise trade are available only for the first ten months of 2015. Exports of services Imports of services Seasonally adjusted index 2008=100, 3-m moving Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. particularly in the export-oriented leather industry. Road - international Road - national Railway After increasing for a long period, road freight transport maintained its relatively high level in the third quarter of 2015. Its growth was mainly related to international transport, particularly journeys performed solely abroad.4 The volume of national freight transport remained down year-on-year, reflecting a decline in activity of some domestic sectors. With lower growth in demand for transport services from foreign companies, the volume of rail freight transport has stagnated for quite some time.5 2 According to the balance of payments statistics. 3 According to the preliminary release, imports were 0.4% lower year-on­year in the first ten months. With the release of data for November, the value of imports of travel services in the period from July to October 2015 rose by EUR 80.1 m. Total exports were, consequently, also higher than in the same period of 2014. Manufacturing, total Source: BoS; calculatons by IMAD. Figure 11: Production volume in manufacturing according to technology intensity At the end of the year, manufacturing production remained Low-technology industries at a high level similar to that in the third quarter. In the Medium-low-technology industries eleven months to November, it was up year-on-year Medium-high- and high-technology industries in almost all industries. Amid higher foreign demand, In EUR m, seasonally adjusted, 3-month movingaverage 90 85 80 75 70 65 seen in some more export-oriented medium-low­105 110 technology industries (the metal and rubber industries) and industries with higher technological intensity 100 (the manufacture of ICT and electrical equipment, the 95 average Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 500 450 400 350 300 250 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 strong growth in the manufacture of motor vehicles, which eased notably in the second half of the year, was mostly the result of increased activity at the beginning of production of two new passenger car models in the second half of 2014. Production was also up year-on-year in most low-technology industries, in addition to the wood-processing industry (because of the base effect), production was also boosted by lower import prices. The manufacture of transport equipment). In some industries the largest year-on-year increases in production were At the end of the year, nominal exports of services continued to increase, while the decline in imports came to a halt.2 Growth in services exports in the first eleven months was mainly due to exports of travel underpinned by higher spending by foreign tourists and exports of transport services. Imports3 were also up year-on-year in the first eleven months, owing largely to higher imports of travel amid higher spending by domestic tourists abroad and imports of telecommunication and technical, trade related, services. In contrast, imports of construction services dropped by half relative to the same period in 2014. Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. 5 In Q3 2015, exports of services in road transport were up 10.6% year-on­year; in rail transport, down 0.5%. Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 4 International freight transport was up 10% year-on-year, while transport of goods performed entirely abroad was up 25%. Seasonally adj. index, 2008=100, 3-month movingSeasonally adj. index, 2008=100, 3-month moving Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 15: Nominal turnover in market services (other than trade) Total Transport and storage (H) Communication activities (J) Total Residential buildings Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Retail trade, real Motor vehicles and repair, real Wholesale trade, nominal 120 At the end of last year, the value of construction put in place swung upwards but remained low. The upswing at the end of the year was mainly due to activity in civil engineering as a result of intense government investment before the expiry of access to EU funds from the 2007–2013 financial perspective. With further declines in the stock of contracts and the value of new contracts in all three construction segments, the prospects for 2016 remain poor. average 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 Accommodation and food service activities (I) average Jan 11 Jul 11 Professional-technical activities (M) Administration and support service activities (N) Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Nominal turnover in market services continued to increase at the end of 2015 in most services. Its growth stemmed from the relatively high production activity (particularly in employment services) and the pick-up in private consumption. In some services, foreign demand also made a significant contribution to growth (especially in transport and computer services). At the end of 2015, the distributive trades sector recorded further growth in the sale of motor vehicles and some non­food segments. The sales of new cars to natural and legal persons were up again.6 Within retail trade, turnover continued to fall in stores selling food, while turnover growth in the sale of non-food products moderated at the end of the year. The latter recorded a further increase in the sale of semi-durable goods, particularly clothing, footwear, medicines and cosmetics. Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. and the registrations of new cars used by legal entities by 6.9%. Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 higher year-on-year in 2015. Within that, the registrations of new cars used by natural persons increased by 14.6% (the sales via leasing rose by a fifth) 6 The number of first car registrations, used as a proxy for sales, was a tenth Net wage bill (left axis) Turnover in the sale of textile, clothing and footwear (right axis) No. of first passenger car registr. used by natural persons (right axis) 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 Seasonally adj. index, 2008=100, 3-month moving Jan 16 average With growing household incomes, some categories of household final consumption expenditure rose further in the last quarter of 2015. Boosted by extraordinary payments, the wage bill growth strengthened further at the end of 2015. Within household final consumption expenditure, expenditure on vehicle purchases recorded further growth; spending on some semi-durable goods was also up. Household also increased expenditure on tourism-related services.7 Confidence in the economy remains high, despite the deterioration early this year.8 Jan 11Jul 11Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Source: Ministry of Infrastructure and Spacial Planning, SURS; calculations by IMAD. Figure 17: Business trends Economic sentiment Manufacturing Retail trade Service activ. Construction Consumers* Seasonally adj. indicator value, 3-month moving 30 20 10 0 -10 average -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: *As January's data was also impacted by methodological changes, it is not comparable with data for previous months. 7 Amid further moderate growth in the last quarter of 2015, the number of domestic tourist overnight stays was up 6.4% year-on-year in the first eleven months of 2015. Household expenditure on private travel abroad (imports of travel services) was up 9.8% year-on-year in the same period. Both indicators recorded the strongest growth since the beginning of the crisis. 8 In January, the consumer confidence indicator declined, which was also due to changes in the methodology for data collection and a broader sample. Table 4: Indicators of labour market trends Change, in % 2014 XI 15/X 15 XI 15/XI 14 I-XI 15/I-XI 14 Persons in formal employment2 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.9 Registered unemployed 0.2 -0.1 -6.9 -6.2 Average nominal gross wage 1.1 0.71 2.5 0.6 - private sector 1.4 2.51 3.0 0.5 - public sector 0.9 0.81 1.9 1.0 -of which general government 0.6 0.51 1.2 0.6 2014 XI 14 X 15 XI 15 Rate of registered unemployment (in %), seasonally adjusted 13.1 12.8 12.0 11.9 2.5 Sources: ESS. SURS; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1seasonally adjusted, 2 Persons in paid employment, self-employed persons and farmers. At the end of last year, the growth of average gross Figure 20: Average gross earnings per employee earnings strengthened, but in the eleven months to Nominal growth in the first eleven months, in % 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 - of which, public corporations Source: SURS; calculations by IMAD. November, it was significantly lower than in the same period of 2014. With the highest 13th month payments and Christmas bonuses in seven years, earnings in the private sector and public corporations rose visibly with regard to the previous month. Earnings in the general government sector also continued to rise, in the last two months primarily on account of increased overtime and extraordinary payments, which can be attributed to increased workload due to the inflow of refugees. Although they rose strongly in November, private sector earnings recorded much lower year-on-year growth in the first eleven months of 2015 than in the same period of 2014, which is, besides companies’ efforts to maintain competitiveness, mainly attributable to the absence of price pressures and changes in employment structure. In the public sector, earnings increased further year-on­year in the first eleven months of 2015, on account of the payments of suspended promotion raises in 2014 and growth in public corporations. Year-on-year growth, in % 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 Figure 25: Real unit labour costs in Slovenia and the EU RULC Slovenia RULC EU Productivity Slovenia* Productivity EU* Compensation per employee Slovenia* Compensation per employee EU* 5 4 The larger decline in unit labour costs in the first nine months of 2015 than, on average, in the euro area and the EU was a consequence of stronger growth in labour productivity. In Slovenia, compensation per employee remained at the same level as one year before, similar to the euro area as a whole, while it rose in the EU. Slovenia’s position therefore continued to improve. Nevertheless, the level of unit labour costs in the first nine months of 2015 compared with the pre-crisis year 2007 was still higher than on average in the EU. 12 In Slovenia, compared with those in its trading partners. 13 As Slovenia has an above-average share of trade with the euro area, it is relatively less susceptible to the volatility of the euro. Apart from that, this year, the euro has mainly been losing value against the currencies of those Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD. REER ULC 1-9 2015 REER HICP 1-12. 2015 In terms of gains in price and cost competitiveness as measured by the real effective exchange rate, Slovenia ranked in the middle of euro area countries in 2015. It recorded a smaller decline in the nominal effective exchange rate than most other euro area countries because of the geographical structure of its trade.13 In contrast, the year-on-year declines in relative prices and costs were among the largest in the euro area. Year-on-year growth, in % 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 REER HICP REER ULC NEER Relative ULC Relative HICP 3 2 In the second half of 2015, Slovenia’s price and cost competiveness continued to improve. The improvement was due mainly to the decline in the nominal effective exchange rate and partly to lower relative12 prices and unit labour costs. Source: Eurostat; calculatons by IMAD. Note: *real, GDP deflator. against the currencies of those with relatively larger shares (Croatia, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Poland). Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 trading partners that account for relatively smaller shares of Slovenia’s trade outside the euro area (US, UK, Asian countries), while being stable Balance of payments Merchandise trade Services trade Primary income Secondary income 4,000 Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. Table 7: Balance of payments I-XI 15, in EUR m Inflows Outflows Balance Balance I-XI 14 Current account 29,691.6 26,995.5 2,696.2 2,327.1 Goods 22,148.5 20,555.9 1,592.6 1,113.5 Services 5,432.3 3,540.7 1,891.6 1,600.8 Primary income 1,358.2 1,707.7 -349.5 -108.6 Secondary income 752.6 1,191.1 -438.5 -278.6 Capital account 589.9 471.8 118.1 46.8 Financial account -740.5 2,331.5 3,072.1 2,069.6 Direct investment 915.3 256.4 -658.9 -716.2 Portfolio investment -619.8 1,738.8 2,358.6 -4,474.1 Other investment -973.2 451.2 1,424.4 7,149.1 Net errors and omissions 257.8 0.0 257.8 -304.4 Source: BoS. Note: The methodology of the Slovenian Balance of Payments and International Investment Position statistics follows the recommendations in the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual published by the International Monetary Fund. On the current and capital accounts, the term »inflows” means total receipts and the term “outflows” means total expenditures; “balance” is the difference between inflows and outflows. On the financial account, “outflows” mean assets, while “inflows” mean liabilities abroad; “balance” is the difference between outflows and inflows. In financial inflows and outflows, the increase is recorded with a plus sign and the decrease with a minus sign. Figure 28: Financial transactions of the balance of With the change in the structure of financial flows, the payments net outflow of international financial transactions16 in the first eleven months of 2015 (EUR 3.1 bn) was higher Direct investment Portfolio investment Financial derivatives Other investment than in the same period of 2014 (EUR 2.0 bn). Its year-on- Financial transactions year increase was mainly due to the lower net external debt.17 A part of the private financial sector increased financial investment in foreign securities, which is linked to excess liquidity on the domestic market and higher yields on international financial markets. The year-on­ year decline in the net outflow of other investment was mainly attributable to the Bank of Slovenia withdrawing currency and deposits from foreign accounts. Commercial banks’ deleveraging abroad was lower than in 2014. 15 On the current account of the balance of payments, the coverage of losses is recorded as negative reinvested earnings of direct investors. In outward direct investment, negative reinvested earnings constitute negative receipts of direct investment income; in inward direct foreign investment, 12-month cumulative moving average, in EUR m -2,000 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 -1,000 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 current account surplus totalled 7.7% of estimated GDP. only by favourable export developments, but also the improved terms of trade. The deficit in primary income was up chiefly as a result of the net outflow of direct investment income, in particular estimated reinvested earnings of equity capital of direct investment.15 The year-on-year widening of the deficit in secondary income was mostly due to a larger net outflow of various current transfers. In the twelve months to November 2015, the The current account surplus widened further towards the end of 2015. In the eleven months to November, it was up year-on-year owing to a larger surplus in international trade in goods and services, which was impacted not Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. net by issuing securities. Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 they represent negative expenditure of direct investment income. 16 Financial account excluding reserve assets. 17 In the first eleven months of 2014, the government borrowed EUR 4.2 bn Financial markets Figure 29: Changes in the volume of domestic bank loans to households, enterprises and NFIs, and the government Households Enterprises and NFIs Government Total 1,000 500 0 In EUR m The decline in the volume of loans by domestic non-banking sectors in 2015 was smaller than in 2014.18 Loan volume contracted by EUR 1.1 bn, by almost 30% less than in 2014, which was a consequence of an increase in household loans and an approximately 15% smaller decline in corporate and NFI loans. In the last quarter of 2015, the volume of corporate and NFI loans for other purposes otherwise also rose more noticeably, by more than EUR 90 m. Corporate and NFI net deleveraging abroad stabilised at an annual level of EUR 600 m to EUR 700 m in the second half of the year. This is more than a quarter less than in the same period of 201419 and entirely the result of net repayments of long-term loans. In November, the share of non-performing claims dropped slightly more because of a decline in non-performing claims against non-financial corporations, but is still relatively high, at EUR 3.7 bn, and accounts for 10.3% of the banking system’s total exposure. -1,000 -1,500 -2,000 -2,500 Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. Table 8: Financial market indicators Domestic bank loans to non-banking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR m Nominal loan growth, % 31. XII 14 31. XII 15 31. XII 15/30. XI 15 31. XII 15/31. XII 14 Loans total 22,883.1 21,741.8 0.4 -5.0 Enterprises and NFI 12,300.4 10,966.1 -1.0 -10.8 Government 1,820.3 1,919.7 11.3 5.5 Households 8,762.5 8,855.9 0.0 1.1 Consumer credits 2,104.1 2,032.2 -0.7 -3.4 Lending for house purchase 5,348.0 5,524.6 0.4 3.3 Other lending 1,310.5 1,299.1 -0.6 -0.9 Bank deposits total 15,355.6 15,879.4 0.9 3.4 Overnight deposits 7,373.6 8,962.9 1.9 21.6 Term deposits 7,982.0 6,916.5 -0.4 -13.3 Government bank deposits, total 1,909.4 1,644.6 -32.4 -13.9 Figure 30: Changes in the volume of deposits by domestic non-banking sectors Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BoS, SMA (Securities Market Agency); calculations by IMAD. Note: NFI – Non-monetary Financial Institutions. Households Enterprises NFIs Government Total 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 In EUR m Looking at the sources of finance, banks continue to repay their liabilities abroad, while the increase in deposits by domestic non-banking sectors eased considerably. Bank deleveraging abroad is still gradually slowing due to lower net repayments of long-term loans; it totalled EUR 1.2 bn at the annual level in November 2015. Last year’s increase in deposits by domestic non-banking sectors ( just below EUR 820 m) was more than 60% smaller than in the same period of 2014. The main factors behind this significant decline were the outflow of government and NFI deposits and smaller inflows of household deposits, while corporate deposits rose more than in 2014, which we estimate can also be a consequence of low investment activity of enterprises. Among non-banking sectors’ deposits, overnight deposits rose by more than a quarter (EUR 2.7 bn), which significantly worsened the maturity structure of deposits and is additionally limiting long-term lending by banks. 18 Excluding the impact of the transfers of claims to the BAMC in September, October and December 2014 in the total amount of EUR 1.7 bn. 19 Data are available until November 2015. 500 0 -500 -1,000 -1,500 -2,000 -2,500 Source: BoS; calculations by IMAD. Public finance Figure 31: Revenue growth and contributions of individual categories to growth Tax revenues Social security contributions Non-tax revenues Receipts from the EU budget Capital and transferred revenues and donations received TOTAL REVENUE (right axis) 8 General government revenue in the first eleven months of 2015 was 2.6% higher year-on-year. Total revenue growth stemmed mainly from tax revenues, among which the following increased the most: (i) revenues from the corporate income tax (mainly as a result of positive annual tax assessments after the improvement of business performance in 2014) and the personal income tax (owing to higher employment and earnings); 6 Year-on-year growth, in % and (ii) revenues from VAT (as a result of growth in private consumption and more efficient tax collection) and excise duties (partly as the payments of some excise duties were postponed from November to December 2014). Revenues from most other taxes were also higher than in the same period of 2014, in particular revenues from taxes on financial and insurance services and CO2 emissions (as a result of the increase in tax rates). Further 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -6 I-XI I-XIQ1 Q2Q3 X.XI 2014 2015 2015 Source: MF, Bulletin of Government Finance; calculations by IMAD. growth was also recorded for social contributions, which is related to increased employment, higher average earnings and the broadening of the contribution base. The significant year-on-year decline in non-tax revenues is related to one-off revenues20 in 2014 and was the main factor in last year’s moderation in total revenue growth. Table 9: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure Category I-XI 2014 I-XI 2015 EUR m Y-o-y growth, in % EUR m Y-o-y growth, in % REVENUES TOTAL 13,925.0 6.1 14,290.0 2.6 Tax revenues* 7,192.1 5.9 7,558.5 5.1 Personal income tax 1,716.9 2.5 1,773.0 3.3 Corporate income tax 430.3 87.4 551.0 28.0 Taxes on immovable property 162.7 -16.0 180.8 11.1 Value added tax 2,908.9 5.2 2,969.9 2.1 Excise duties 1,313.1 0.1 1,385.3 5.5 Social security contributions 4,784.5 2.7 4,961.6 3.7 Non-tax revenues 1,075.6 20.6 859.1 -20.1 Receipts from the EU budget 807.0 24.2 798.1 -1.1 Other 65.8 -49.6 112.7 71.4 EXPENDITURE TOTAL 15,147.0 3.1 15,096.7 -0.3 Salaries. wages and other personnel expenditures** 3,298.9 0.1 3,302.8 0.1 Expenditure on goods and services 1,979.4 -1.4 1,971.4 -0.4 Interest payments 1,093.8 30.6 1,037.6 -5.1 Reserves 80.0 -29.6 153.0 91.2 Transf. to individuals and households 5,813.8 -0.1 5,839.9 0.4 Other current transfers 1,120.3 -5.9 1,042.9 -6.9 Investment expenditure 1,390.9 35.0 1,358.6 -2.3 Payments to the EU budget 369.8 -7.1 390.4 5.6 BUDGET BALANCE -1,222.1 -806.6 PRIMARY BALANCE -167.4 214.9 Source: MF. Bulletin of Government Finance; calculations by IMAD. Note:* Unlike tax revenues in the consolidated balance of public finance, tax revenues in this table do not include social constributions.** Labour costs include social contributions by the employer. 20 Such as the payment of concession fees for mobile telephony and a large surplus from the treasury single account management paid into the state budget in 2014. Figure 32: Expenditure growth and contributions of individual categories to growth Salaries, wages, oth. personnel expedit. with social security contrib.* Expenditure on goods and services Interest payments Reserves Current transfers General government expenditure in the first eleven months of 2015 was similar to that in the same period of 2014 (-0.3%). Expenditures with the largest year-on-year declines include the following: (i) payments of subsidies; (ii) interest payments, as a result of new borrowing at a rate lower than that on the matured portion of debt; and (iii) investment expenditure, which is estimated to have 5 increased significantly in December 2015 according to 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 Year-on-year growth, in % the released data on government budget outturn. The largest increases were posted for expenditure on special funds (the water protection fund and the climate change fund), which are recorded under reserves. Transfers to households were also higher, which is attributable to higher expenditures on sickness benefits, the annual pension supplement21 and cash benefits, while transfers to the unemployed were down due to lower -3 unemployment. The wage bill22 did not change much 2014 2015 2015 year-on-year, given that most measures were extended Source: MF, Bulletin of Government Finance; calculations by IMAD. Note: * Labour costs include social contributions paid by the employer. Figure 33: General government balance Budget balance Primary budget balance from 2014 to 2015. In EUR m 200 0 -200 -400 -600 -800 -1,000 -1,200 -1,400 -1,600 -1,800 2011 2012 2013 2014 I–XI I–XI 2014 2015 Source: MF, Bulletin of Government Finance; calculations by IMAD. The general government deficit23 on a cash basis was lower year-on-year in the first eleven month of 2015, but is estimated to have widened notably by the end of the year. On the basis of the released data on the state budget outturn for December, when investment expenditure and expenditure on goods and services increased significantly, we estimate that the general government deficit widened notably by the end of the year. In 2015, the state budget deficit (which accounts for the bulk of the general government deficit) was higher than in 2014, but lower than envisaged in the revised budget. Figure 34: Receipts from the EU budget, January – December 2014 and 2015 Total receipts (Jan-Dec 2015) Total receipts (Jan-Dec 2014) Structural Funds Cohesion Fund Common Agricultural Policy Other In 2015, Slovenia received EUR 879 m from the EU budget, 15% less than in 2014. It paid EUR 433 m to and received EUR 879 m from the EU budget. Slovenia’s net budgetary position towards the EU budget was thus positive (at EUR 447 m), though it deteriorated relative to 2014 (EUR 633 m). 21 This supplement excluded, pension expenditure was similar to that in the same period of 2014. 22 In 2015, the payments for eliminating part of the third quarter of disparities in public servants' earnings were lower than in 2014. These payments excluded, the wage bill was up year-on-year – including owing to the release of some frozen promotion raises in 2014. 23 The general government deficit on a cash basis is the deficit of consolidated general government budgetary accounts, which is published monthly by the Ministry of Finance in the Bulletin of Government Finance. In the excessive deficit procedure the European Commission takes into account the general government deficit according to the ESA-2010 methodology, which differs from the general government deficit on a cash basis because of a broader coverage of institutional units and accrual recording of transactions, and which for 2015 is not yet known. selected topics (In)solvency in 2015 In 2015, solvency continued to improve. The solvency of legal entities and sole proprietors1 increased in terms of both the number of non-payers and the amount of outstanding liabilities. Payment delays shortened, but long-term outstanding liabilities,2 which account for 70% of all outstanding liabilities, remain high. In 2015, the mutual indebtedness of business entities declined as a result of set-offs; fewer compulsory settlement proceedings were initiated, while the number of bankruptcy filings increased. Up to 3 months From 3 months to 1 year Over 1 year 600 500 400 In EUR m 300 Figure 36: Legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities for more than five consecutive days in a month and the average daily amount of their outstanding matured liabilities Average no. of legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities (left axis) Average daily amount of outstanding matured liabilities, 8,000 EUR m (right axis) 800 7,000 700 6,000 600 200 100 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: AJPES. liabilities continually for over one year. These liabilities accounted for 80.8% of all outstanding liabilities in the structure. Almost half of non-payers are in the sectors of construction, distributive trades and accommodation and food service activities. 2,000 200 1,000 100 2008 2009 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 0 Source: AJPES. 5,000 500 In EUR m Number Including December’s round of compulsory and voluntary multilateral set-offs, the mutual indebtedness of business 4,000 400 3,000 300 entities has declined by EUR 2.6 bn since April 2011.4 In this In 2015, the number of legal entities with outstanding liabilities3 declined further; the same holds for the average daily amounts. The number of non-payers decreased in all sectors, notably real estate. The largest decline in the average daily amount of outstanding liabilities was recorded in financial and insurance activities. The construction sector still accounts for almost a fifth of the total daily amount of outstanding liabilities. The solvency of sole proprietors also improved last year. The average number of sole proprietors (6,768) was one sixth lower year-on-year; the average daily amount of their outstanding liabilities (EUR 119 m) was one twentieth lower. Long-term insolvency remains a problem, given that half of all non-payers had outstanding 1 Sole proprietors and natural persons pursuing registered business activities, who are registered in the Business Register of Slovenia. 2 Liabilities outstanding for more than one year. 3 These are matured liabilities that are outstanding for more than five consecutive days in a month. AJPES keeps records of outstanding matured liabilities from court enforcement orders and tax debt. These records do not include other outstanding liabilities from unpaid bills between creditors and debtors. round, debtors reported liabilities in the total amount of EUR 428.7 m, of which 6.9% was set off. The most debtors and creditors were from manufacturing and distributive trades. After changes to legislation5 in 2013 and 2014, the number of bankruptcy filings6 rose notably in the last two years. In 2015, the most bankruptcy proceedings against legal entities were initiated in distributive trades and construction. Because of insolvency7 and hence bankruptcy, a third more legal entities were struck off the business register than in 2014. Last year’s number of bankruptcy filings against sole proprietors was the largest ever, more than two thirds of sole proprietors being from the sectors of construction, distributive 4 ZPreZP-1 (Official Gazette of the RS, No. 57/2012, from 27 July 2012), which took effect on 28 July 2012. 5 Act Amending the Financial Operations, Insolvency Proceedings and Compulsory Dissolution Act (ZFPPIPP), Official Gazette of the RS, No. 47/2013 from 31 May 2013, according to which the debtor no longer has to deposit an advance to cover the initial costs of bankruptcy proceedings. 6 Bankruptcy proceedings are a form of winding-up an over-indebted or insolvent debtor. Under court supervision, bankruptcy proceedings are administered by the bankruptcy trustee, who liquidates the entire debtor property to obtain financial assets for settling creditor claims. Upon completion of the bankruptcy proceedings, the legal entity is deleted from the court register. 7 Insolvency is a situation where a debtor, in a longer period, can no longer meet its financial obligations that become due (prolonged illiquidity), or becomes unable to cover its financial obligations in the long term (long­term insolvency). Table 10: Legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities for more than five consecutive days in a month, December 2015 Activity Number of legal entities with outstanding matured liabilities, Dec 2015 Growth, in % Average daily amount of outstanding matured liabilities, Dec 2015, in EUR .000 Growth, in % Average daily amount of out­standing matured liabilities per legal entity, Dec 2015, in EUR .000 XII 15/ XII 14 I-XII 15/ I-XII 14 XII 15/ XII 14 I-XII 15/ I-XII 14 C Manufacturing 518 -25.7 -19.4 53,410 -11.9 -24.4 103 F Construction 913 -24.0 -16.8 91,731 -20.4 -34.7 100 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 1,013 -18.4 -15.3 48,796 -31.5 -19.8 48 H Transportation and storage 238 -23.7 -15.5 13,940 1.1 -34.5 59 I Accommodation and food service activities 444 -14.8 -12.6 28,541 -28.1 -4.3 64 K Financial and insurance activities 77 -24.5 -19.4 2,800 -92.4 -71.5 36 L Real estate activities 134 -20.2 -25.4 37,120 -18.7 -13.3 277 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 673 -12.8 -14.1 41,899 -49.4 -42.6 62 N Administrative and support service activities 173 -20.3 -8.5 8,842 -35.9 -38.4 51 Other activities (A,B,D,E,J,O-S)1 723 -15.2 -10.9 57,017 -27.2 5.9 79 TOTAL 4,906 -19.4 -15.3 384,096 -31.2 -29.4 78 Source: AJPES. Note. 1 A–Agriculture and hunting, forestry, fishing; B-Mining; D–Electricity, gas and steam supply; E–Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities; J– Information and communication activities; O–Public administration and defence; compulsory social security; P–education; Q–Health and social work; R–Arts, entertainment and recreation; S–Other service activities. Table 11: Number of business entities subject to insolvency proceedings and deletions from the register because of insolvency 2009 2013 2014 2015 Total Of which companies Total Of which companies Total Of which companies Total Of which companies Initiated bankruptcy proceedings 332 276 941 883 1,302 1,107 1,154 939 Deletions from the register due to bankruptcy 269 208 541 481 850 681 1,113 921 Initiated compulsory settlement proceedings 14 14 48 46 43 40 17 17 Initiated simplified compulsory settlement proceedings1 - - 10 10 101 99 116 112 Initiated compulsory liquidation proceedings - - 4 1 10 5 11 1 Deletions from the register due to compulsory liquidation - - 4 0 3 0 2 0 Initiated voluntary liquidation proceedings2 82 63 108 59 102 46 118 46 Deletions from the register due to voluntary liquidation2 66 49 75 38 81 31 117 45 Source: AJPES. Note: 1 Simplified compulsory settlement proceedings introduced by the Act Amending the Financial Operations, Insolvency Proceedings and Compulsory Dissolution Act (ZFPPIPP-E), effective from 15 August 2013 onwards. 2 In 2009, data for compulsory and voluntary liqudation proceedings together. Figure 38: Bankruptcy filings trades, accommodation and food service activities, and Number Companies Sole proprietors Personal bankrupcies 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Source: AJPES. manufacturing. The number of personal bankruptcies8 was even larger than in the preceding record year, while the amount of reported claims, which had stood at EUR 769 m in 2014, exceeded EUR 1.1 bn. 8 According to data from the Supreme Court of the RS. By filing for personal bankruptcy, debtors can prevent the attachment of their assets or stop public auctions of their property. statistical appendix MAIN INDICATORS 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Autumn forecast 2015 GDP (real growth rates, in %) 1.2 0.6 -2.7 -1.1 3.0 2.7 2.3 2.3 GDP in EUR million (current prices) 36,252 36,896 35,988 35,907 37,303 38,520 39,919 41,153 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices) 17,694 17,973 17,498 17,435 18,093 18,633 19,247 19,800 GDP per capita (PPS)1 21,100 21,500 21,600 21,700 22,600 GDP per capita (PPS EU28=100)1 83 83 82 82 83 Rate of registered unemployment 10.7 11.8 12.0 13.1 13.1 12.3 11.8 11.1 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 7.3 8.2 8.9 10.1 9.7 9.4 8.9 8.5 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 3.4 2.4 -1.8 0.3 2.5 1.2 1.2 1.4 Inflation,2 year average 1.8 1.8 2.6 1.8 0.2 -0.4 0.8 1.4 Inflation,2 end of the year 1.9 2.0 2.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 1.2 1.6 INTERNATIONAL TRADE Exports of goods and services (real growth rates, in %) 10.2 6.9 0.6 3.1 5.8 5.0 5.2 4.9 Exports of goods 12.0 8.0 0.4 3.3 6.4 5.3 5.4 5.0 Exports of services 3.4 2.5 1.5 1.9 3.4 3.9 4.2 4.3 Imports of goods and services (real growth rates, in %) 6.8 5.0 -3.7 1.7 4.0 4.9 3.8 5.0 Imports of goods 7.6 6.0 -4.3 2.5 3.7 5.4 3.8 5.1 Imports of services 3.1 -0.4 0.2 -3.1 6.0 1.9 4.0 4.5 Current account balance3, in EUR million -43 68 930 2,023 2,607 2,387 2,870 2,776 As a per cent share relative to GDP -0.1 0.2 2.6 5.6 7.0 6.2 7.2 6.7 Gross external debt, in EUR million 42,123 41,669 42,872 41,658 46,314 45,266* As a per cent share relative to GDP 116.2 112.9 119.1 116.0 124.2 Ratio of USD to EUR 1.327 1.392 1.286 1.328 1.329 1.109 1.102 1.102 DOMESTIC DEMAND Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) 1.3 0.0 -2.5 -4.1 0.7 2.0 2.6 2.2 As a % of GDP 56.0 56.0 56.7 55.0 53.3 52.3 52.0 52.1 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) -0.5 -0.7 -2.3 -1.5 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 As a % of GDP 20.3 20.4 20.3 19.8 19.1 18.5 18.5 18.1 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) -13.3 -4.9 -8.8 1.7 3.2 2.0 -1.8 5.0 As a % of GDP 21.3 20.2 19.3 19.7 19.6 19.7 19.0 19.7 Sources of data: SURS, BoS, Eurostat, calculations and forecasts by IMAD (Autumn Forecast, September 2015). Notes: 1Measured in purchasing power standard; 2Consumer price index; 3 Balance of payments statistics; *End November 2015. PRODUCTION 2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 12 1 2 3 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D -1.1 -0.9 2.2 -1.1 1.6 0.7 2.3 3.1 2.6 6.2 4.4 4.8 8.0 -0.2 -1.4 3.7 B Mining and quarrying -7.4 1.3 -3.8 -7.1 16.8 -1.6 33.0 -9.6 -28.1 1.1 -12.5 -1.1 74.1 30.2 0.0 -27.5 C Manufacturing -2.3 -1.5 4.3 -1.4 1.2 3.3 3.1 5.1 5.6 6.2 5.1 5.5 7.7 2.5 1.0 6.3 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 10.5 3.9 -14.2 3.2 3.1 -18.3 -10.0 -11.5 -16.1 5.8 2.4 -0.5 5.5 -21.6 -19.4 -13.8 CONSTRUCTION,2 real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total -16.8 -2.5 19.5 -3.4 22.8 36.8 40.0 19.8 -3.3 0.3 -8.9 -12.8 6.8 34.5 28.8 44.6 Buildings -17.3 -20.4 3.8 -16.6 5.1 6.7 6.5 8.0 -4.5 -5.3 -1.1 -6.1 0.8 6.2 4.7 8.5 Civil engineering -16.6 6.3 26.5 1.7 27.1 52.5 55.7 25.1 -1.9 2.5 -11.5 -15.6 6.3 49.1 41.1 63.0 MARKET SERVICES, year-on-year growth rates, % Services, total -2.8 -0.3 2.7 0.5 1.1 3.5 2.0 4.3 1.1 3.4 3.0 3.3 1.9 2.8 2.9 4.7 Transportation and storage 0.0 -0.1 6.2 0.6 1.6 7.2 6.1 7.0 4.5 2.3 3.1 2.2 2.8 6.5 5.9 8.9 Information and communication activities -2.9 0.4 1.1 1.7 0.6 5.0 -0.3 0.6 -0.5 1.4 1.7 4.5 2.3 5.3 6.0 3.8 Professional, scientific and technical activities -7.6 -2.1 -1.8 -3.1 -0.6 -4.7 -2.5 6.6 -5.7 3.5 -0.8 0.9 -1.4 -7.2 -6.3 -1.2 Administrative and support service activities -4.5 3.7 2.5 3.7 5.4 0.2 -1.6 1.8 10.1 14.2 15.4 9.6 6.4 0.5 0.6 -0.6 Distributive trades, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* -3.6 -1.0 2.4 -2.2 3.2 2.4 -1.2 5.7 2.6 4.9 6.8 4.5 4.8 2.2 1.9 3.2 Real turnover in retail trade -2.2 -3.7 0.0 -4.6 -0.7 -0.7 -1.0 2.3 -0.8 0.8 1.4 0.4 0.1 -1.1 -0.6 -0.5 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles -6.3 4.7 7.2 3.4 11.6 8.6 -1.7 12.8 9.0 11.8 15.8 12.9 16.3 8.8 6.9 10.1 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade 0.8 -0.2 3.8 -1.4 4.7 6.2 3.0 6.0 0.1 0.2 1.5 0.6 10.2 5.1 5.2 8.4 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, %, new methodology from 2009 onwards Total, overnight stays 1.2 0.3 -0.5 2.9 0.6 -2.0 -14.0 -3.4 3.9 6.8 28.1 11.2 0.1 -0.4 -3.4 -2.1 Domestic tourists, overnight stays -4.9 -3.4 -3.5 -2.4 0.5 -3.4 -8.1 -7.7 1.6 6.8 12.7 15.2 -0.9 -6.9 -5.7 2.4 Foreign tourists, overnight stays 5.6 2.8 1.4 5.6 0.7 -0.6 -17.4 -1.4 5.6 6.9 37.9 9.4 1.1 4.3 -0.2 -5.8 Accommodation and food service activities -1.1 -1.4 2.1 0.5 2.9 2.8 3.3 1.2 1.1 6.8 4.3 3.3 4.1 1.4 2.0 5.1 AGRICULTURE, y-o-y growth rates, % Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EUR m 480.4 478.4 506.9 123.2 139.6 113.6 122.8 132.5 138.0 102.5 111.4 124.0 48.5 38.4 36.0 39.2 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**) Sentiment indicator -16.9 -13.3 -2.3 -12.2 -11.4 -8.1 -2.1 -0.2 1.3 4.4 5.0 5.3 -10.9 -8.1 -8.8 -7.5 Confidence indicator - in manufacturing -11 -5 2 -4 -2 -1 3 3 3 7 5 5 -1 -2 0 0 - in construction -41 -22 -11 -18 -17 -14 -9 -9 -11 -10 -15 -16 -18 -15 -17 -10 - in services -12 -12 5 -11 -10 -5 6 7 11 15 16 16 -10 -4 -6 -4 - in retail trade 2 2 9 8 3 2 7 10 17 17 15 14 -1 9 0 -3 Consumer confidence indicator -34 -33 -22 -33 -34 -30 -25 -17 -17 -15 -10 -8 -32 -29 -31 -29 Source of data: SURS. Note: 1Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. *Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels. **Seasonally adjusted data. 2014 2015 2016 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 0.8 0.0 6.1 5.2 -1.3 4.7 2.9 1.5 3.5 3.4 7.2 7.9 0.4 5.3 7.4 2.0 7.9 5.3 3.0 7.9 - - 69.7 17.6 10.1 -18.7 -25.3 20.3 -4.5 -24.1 -52.5 -14.9 -3.9 28.9 -35.3 2.3 8.3 13.1 11.2 -21.9 -11.1 33.5 - - 1.0 0.1 8.3 6.9 1.2 6.4 5.1 3.8 8.3 3.5 7.0 8.0 1.1 6.0 8.1 2.3 8.4 6.5 3.5 8.1 - - -9.7 -4.7 -15.3 -6.0 -15.7 -13.0 -16.2 -13.7 -18.1 4.4 9.2 4.1 2.1 0.6 4.7 -3.0 1.8 -0.1 2.6 3.6 - - 47.2 45.0 30.4 27.7 27.5 6.7 -1.8 -10.5 4.6 -2.7 6.0 -1.7 -7.0 -9.0 -10.5 -12.9 -13.8 -11.8 -11.8 6.0 - - 9.8 11.3 -0.2 13.6 15.9 -4.0 -5.1 -12.6 7.0 -0.3 -6.7 -8.2 -5.3 0.9 0.9 -2.9 -11.3 -3.1 -8.6 -1.4 - - 65.1 60.4 44.6 34.1 32.5 11.6 0.4 -8.7 4.5 -4.1 11.9 0.9 -7.5 -12.2 -14.3 -16.4 -15.2 -15.1 -12.8 8.9 - - 2.3 2.5 1.3 7.0 3.3 2.7 1.8 -0.6 2.0 0.9 5.7 3.7 1.4 2.6 4.8 3.1 3.8 3.0 5.5 11.4 - - 4.6 6.1 7.6 7.3 3.6 9.8 2.5 2.4 8.9 -2.0 5.7 3.1 0.8 2.1 6.2 2.4 3.9 0.6 4.1 8.7 1.1 0.2 -2.1 3.4 -0.4 -1.0 -0.3 -0.7 -0.6 -0.9 3.2 2.0 2.9 0.3 1.8 2.2 4.8 6.6 4.4 15.1 -0.6 -1.4 -5.1 17.5 9.8 -4.1 -0.5 -9.0 -7.1 2.8 5.8 2.1 -4.5 1.5 0.6 1.3 0.1 1.2 10.7 15.4 -0.7 -0.2 -3.7 4.2 -0.7 2.0 8.8 9.6 12.0 13.4 12.8 16.2 12.4 13.4 20.1 8.6 9.9 10.4 9.4 11.5 - - 2.5 -3.2 -2.9 8.4 1.1 7.9 2.9 0.7 4.2 2.0 6.4 6.4 2.7 8.1 9.8 3.5 4.9 5.1 3.8 8.7 - - 3.0 -3.2 -2.8 3.0 -0.8 4.8 -0.7 -1.3 -0.3 -1.3 2.9 0.7 -0.9 2.5 2.6 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.5 1.9 - - 1.5 -3.4 -3.0 19.4 5.7 13.6 9.4 4.0 13.9 7.7 12.3 15.4 8.9 17.6 21.4 9.7 15.9 13.1 9.4 19.5 - - 5.8 -0.1 3.3 6.3 2.3 9.4 1.6 0.1 -1.4 -6.8 3.4 4.4 -2.2 1.8 5.0 0.8 0.3 0.8 -1.9 5.2 - - 7.8 -2.9 4.8 -5.1 -1.3 -4.7 6.0 -0.7 5.6 6.2 12.4 2.2 6.1 8.1 6.7 10.9 8.7 7.0 1.1 0.6 - - -3.6 1.0 -1.3 -7.7 -8.7 -5.8 8.2 -0.7 -3.6 9.6 9.9 1.0 10.5 -2.9 7.4 8.3 10.2 6.4 0.9 5.0 - - 15.5 -4.9 8.3 -3.8 2.1 -4.2 4.5 -0.7 13.9 4.0 15.7 3.2 3.7 14.2 6.3 12.1 8.1 7.3 1.2 -3.0 - - 4.2 2.7 2.9 0.7 4.5 -1.6 3.5 0.2 -0.4 7.0 8.0 5.4 4.3 5.1 3.6 5.2 2.8 2.0 0.7 4.9 - - 42.6 39.4 40.7 48.0 38.8 45.7 47.4 40.9 49.7 34.1 32.1 36.3 37.1 37.0 37.4 43.4 36.3 44.3 49.0 40.4 - - -5.4 -0.3 -0.5 1.2 -1.9 0.1 1.9 0.7 1.4 3.6 4.2 5.5 4.9 5.1 4.9 3.5 6.6 5.7 5.9 5.5 6.4 3.9 2 3 5 6 1 2 2 2 4 5 6 9 4 6 5 5 7 4 7 7 7 4 -16 -4 -8 -6 -12 -10 -9 -12 -11 -11 -10 -10 -15 -15 -14 -16 -15 -18 -15 -13 -14 -15 3 9 7 7 6 7 11 12 11 12 16 16 18 16 15 16 15 17 18 19 19 16 2 17 2 11 10 10 18 19 14 23 19 9 21 18 5 5 15 23 15 15 12 28 -30 -24 -22 -17 -21 -14 -13 -20 -18 -14 -16 -14 -12 -11 -6 -14 -5 -6 -11 -14 -10 -16 LABOUR MARKET 2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 12 1 2 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 920.2 913.4 917.9 910.5 916.5 912.9 919.8 917.5 921.3 919.7 917.5 914.5 915.3 911.4 913.0 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)1 810.0 793.6 797.8 794.4 795.8 784.2 799.6 803.0 804.4 798.0 805.0 807.1 791.3 781.6 783.3 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 37.0 38.2 35.4 38.1 38.4 31.7 37.1 37.5 35.1 32.8 30.5 29.4 38.4 31.6 31.7 In industry, construction 263.1 252.2 252.4 253.5 252.9 249.0 252.9 254.1 253.8 250.4 255.2 257.3 249.3 248.3 248.5 Of which: in manufacturing 182.9 177.7 178.3 177.5 177.8 177.3 178.2 178.6 179.2 178.8 179.9 181.6 177.0 177.1 177.4 in construction 59.8 54.3 54.0 55.7 54.6 51.5 54.6 55.4 54.5 51.8 55.3 55.7 52.0 51.1 50.7 In services 510.0 503.2 510.0 502.8 504.6 503.5 509.7 511.4 515.5 514.9 519.3 520.4 503.7 501.7 503.1 Of which: in public administration 50.7 49.1 48.8 49.1 48.9 48.7 49.0 49.0 48.5 48.1 48.2 48.3 48.9 48.6 48.7 in education, health-services, social work 120.9 121.0 122.2 120.5 121.6 121.6 122.4 121.6 123.1 123.3 124.1 123.3 121.3 121.1 121.7 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 717.0 698.7 703.0 699.6 699.2 693.8 703.5 706.1 708.8 704.2 712.9 715.9 694.4 691.5 693.0 In enterprises and organisations 662.6 647.6 652.6 647.9 648.1 645.2 653.1 654.7 657.2 654.6 661.5 664.6 644.8 643.1 644.8 By those self-employed 54.5 51.1 50.5 51.7 51.1 48.6 50.4 51.3 51.6 49.7 51.4 51.4 49.6 48.5 48.2 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 93.0 94.9 94.8 94.7 96.6 90.4 96.1 97.0 95.6 93.8 92.1 91.1 97.0 90.1 90.3 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 110.2 119.8 120.1 116.1 120.7 128.8 120.2 114.5 116.9 121.6 112.5 107.4 124.0 129.8 129.8 Female 52.2 57.4 59.6 57.0 58.9 61.2 59.4 58.4 59.6 60.0 57.7 55.9 59.4 61.4 61.2 By age: 15 to 29 24.9 28.8 30.4 26.7 31.6 33.6 30.5 27.4 30.2 30.0 26.5 23.9 32.5 33.9 33.9 aged over 50 38.2 38.9 37.3 38.1 37.3 39.0 37.7 36.5 36.0 37.8 36.8 36.2 37.9 39.2 39.1 Primary education or less 33.3 34.2 33.8 32.6 33.6 36.4 33.8 32.1 32.8 35.3 32.0 30.5 35.2 36.5 36.9 For more than 1 year 55.2 55.4 59.9 55.0 57.7 60.7 59.9 59.1 59.7 61.1 60.1 59.1 59.4 61.0 60.6 Those receiving benefits 33.9 33.0 26.6 30.3 28.7 32.7 26.2 23.9 23.7 28.7 22.4 21.4 29.9 33.8 33.0 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 12.0 13.1 13.1 12.8 13.2 14.1 13.1 12.5 12.7 13.2 12.3 11.7 13.5 14.2 14.2 Male 11.5 12.5 12.0 11.9 12.4 13.5 12.1 11.1 11.4 12.3 11.0 10.3 13.0 13.7 13.7 Female 12.6 13.8 14.3 13.8 14.1 14.8 14.2 14.1 14.2 14.4 13.8 13.4 14.2 14.9 14.8 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE 5.3 6.0 -4.6 -1.9 9.3 2.7 -9.4 -4.8 6.9 -1.4 -7.9 -5.5 4.7 5.8 -0.1 New unemployed first-job seekers 16.3 19.1 18.5 3.4 9.4 4.2 2.7 3.3 8.4 3.5 2.2 2.8 1.4 1.7 1.4 Redundancies 90.3 88.7 83.9 19.6 23.5 25.9 17.3 17.7 23.1 24.4 16.3 17.3 9.3 13.1 6.6 Registered unemployed who found employment 58.3 65.1 74.0 15.8 14.1 20.7 21.4 16.6 15.3 21.8 19.0 16.9 3.5 6.2 6.0 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 43.1 37.3 33.2 9.2 9.9 6.8 7.9 9.2 9.3 7.5 7.5 8.6 2.8 2.8 2.1 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 33.9 30.5 25.1 29.8 27.8 26.3 25.7 24.8 23.6 22.6 23.3 23.7 27.1 26.4 26.3 As % of labour force 3.7 3.3 2.7 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 3.0 2.9 2.9 Source of data: SURS, PDII, ESS. Note: 1In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly Figure for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. 2014 2015 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 914.4 920.2 919.8 919.4 918.0 916.5 918.1 922.3 922.2 919.4 918.5 919.9 920.6 917.9 917.3 917.3 915.0 913.6 914.8 917.9 918.8 787.7 796.6 800.1 802.1 801.8 801.7 805.5 806.4 806.8 800.0 794.3 797.4 802.5 803.0 804.9 807.1 805.5 805.6 810.1 810.4 811.4 32.0 36.8 37.0 37.3 37.5 37.5 37.6 35.2 35.1 35.1 32.6 32.7 33.0 30.5 30.5 30.5 29.5 29.3 29.3 27.0 26.8 250.0 252.0 253.3 253.4 253.9 253.7 254.7 255.5 255.5 250.4 249.1 249.9 252.2 254.2 255.1 256.2 256.5 256.9 258.4 259.6 259.8 177.5 178.1 178.4 178.1 178.4 178.5 179.0 179.4 179.6 178.6 178.5 178.8 179.1 179.3 179.9 180.6 180.9 181.3 182.5 183.6 184.1 52.6 53.9 54.8 55.0 55.4 55.1 55.7 55.9 55.8 51.9 50.9 51.3 53.2 55.0 55.3 55.6 55.5 55.6 56.0 56.1 55.7 505.7 507.8 509.7 511.4 510.4 510.5 513.2 515.7 516.2 514.5 512.6 514.7 517.3 518.2 519.2 520.4 519.5 519.4 522.3 523.8 524.8 48.9 48.9 49.0 49.1 49.1 48.9 48.9 48.7 48.5 48.3 48.0 48.1 48.2 48.2 48.0 48.3 48.2 48.3 48.2 47.9 48.3 122.1 122.3 122.5 122.5 121.3 121.1 122.4 122.9 123.3 123.1 122.6 123.4 123.9 124.0 124.1 124.1 122.8 122.6 124.5 125.2 125.7 696.9 700.8 704.0 705.6 705.1 704.9 708.2 710.9 711.2 704.4 701.0 703.6 708.2 710.9 712.7 714.9 714.3 714.6 718.8 721.2 722.1 647.8 651.0 653.6 654.7 654.1 653.6 656.4 658.6 659.0 654.0 651.8 654.3 657.6 659.6 661.3 663.5 663.0 663.3 667.4 669.7 670.9 49.1 49.8 50.4 51.0 51.0 51.3 51.7 52.3 52.2 50.4 49.1 49.3 50.6 51.4 51.4 51.4 51.3 51.3 51.4 51.4 51.2 90.7 95.8 96.1 96.5 96.7 96.9 97.4 95.5 95.6 95.5 93.3 93.8 94.3 92.0 92.2 92.1 91.2 91.0 91.3 89.3 89.2 126.7 123.6 119.7 117.4 116.2 114.8 112.6 115.9 115.4 119.5 124.3 122.6 118.1 114.9 112.4 110.2 109.6 107.9 104.8 107.5 107.4 61.0 60.3 59.1 58.6 58.9 58.6 57.7 59.9 59.6 59.5 60.9 59.9 59.2 58.5 57.6 56.8 56.9 56.4 54.6 56.2 55.8 33.1 31.9 30.3 29.2 28.1 27.4 26.7 30.4 30.1 30.2 30.8 30.2 29.0 27.7 26.4 25.4 24.8 23.9 22.9 26.2 26.9 38.8 38.4 37.6 37.1 36.9 36.6 35.9 35.7 35.6 36.7 38.1 37.9 37.3 37.0 36.8 36.7 36.6 36.3 35.7 35.6 35.6 35.7 34.7 33.7 33.2 32.5 32.0 31.7 32.0 32.1 34.4 36.1 35.9 33.9 32.7 31.9 31.4 31.0 30.5 30.1 30.3 30.4 60.5 60.7 59.9 59.2 59.0 58.9 59.2 59.5 59.6 60.1 61.5 61.0 60.8 60.3 59.9 60.0 59.5 59.0 58.9 58.8 58.2 31.3 27.4 26.0 25.2 24.7 23.8 23.2 23.2 22.4 25.5 29.4 29.4 27.3 23.1 22.4 21.8 21.8 21.5 20.8 20.6 20.7 13.9 13.4 13.0 12.8 12.7 12.5 12.3 12.6 12.5 13.0 13.5 13.3 12.8 12.5 12.3 12.0 12.0 11.8 11.5 11.7 11.7 13.2 12.6 12.1 11.7 11.4 11.2 10.9 11.1 11.1 12.0 12.6 12.5 11.7 11.3 11.0 10.7 10.6 10.4 10.1 10.3 10.4 14.7 14.4 14.2 14.0 14.2 14.2 13.9 14.3 14.2 14.2 14.6 14.4 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.1 13.4 13.3 -3.0 -3.1 -4.0 -2.3 -1.2 -1.4 -2.2 3.3 -0.5 4.0 4.8 -1.7 -4.5 -3.2 -2.5 -2.1 -0.7 -1.6 -3.2 2.7 -0.1 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.7 5.9 1.5 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.4 5.0 1.3 6.2 6.1 5.3 5.8 6.6 4.8 6.3 7.1 6.2 9.8 12.5 5.9 6.0 5.8 5.2 5.3 6.5 5.1 5.8 6.5 6.5 8.5 7.6 7.6 6.3 5.6 4.3 6.7 6.3 5.0 4.0 6.2 6.5 9.0 7.3 6.0 5.7 5.2 4.7 7.0 5.4 4.8 1.9 2.6 2.5 2.8 3.0 2.7 3.5 3.4 3.2 2.7 2.8 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.7 3.4 3.3 3.1 26.2 26.0 25.7 25.4 25.0 24.7 24.6 24.6 23.4 22.8 22.6 22.3 22.8 23.1 23.6 23.2 23.3 23.6 24.1 23.8 23.3 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 WAGES EUR m 2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 2015 2014 Q3 15 Nov. 15 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, nominal y-o-y growth rates, % TOTAL 1,540 1,529 1,679 0.1 -0.2 1.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 Private sector activities (A–N; R–S) 1,495 1,484 1,663 0.8 0.7 1.5 1.0 1.2 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.3 0.4 0.8 0.6 Public service activities (OPQ) 1,675 1,670 1,731 -2.2 -2.3 0.3 -1.6 -1.1 -1.1 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.2 -0.1 Industry (B–E) 1,529 1,529 1,786 2.5 2.6 3.2 2.9 3.1 3.7 2.7 3.4 2.9 1.4 1.9 1.2 Trad. market services (GHI) 1,369 1,360 1,527 0.3 0.1 1.0 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.9 1.3 0.2 1.4 1.0 Other market services (J–N; R–S) 1,686 1,657 1,764 -0.3 -1.3 -0.3 -0.6 -1.1 -0.4 0.5 -0.5 -0.8 -0.5 -0.9 -0.5 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 1,311 1,299 1,539 -1.1 0.8 0.7 0.0 3.0 0.4 -0.3 2.3 0.5 -0.7 0.0 -0.2 B Mining and quarrying 2,128 2,031 2,050 3.6 -2.0 5.9 -2.9 -2.4 2.9 8.3 10.7 2.0 -8.9 -4.8 -4.8 C Manufacturing 1,483 1,486 1,739 2.5 2.8 3.3 3.0 3.6 3.9 2.8 3.1 3.2 2.1 2.3 1.8 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 2,340 2,315 2,823 3.3 3.0 2.6 3.6 -0.1 5.2 -1.1 6.5 -0.1 -4.4 1.7 -3.0 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 1,475 1,482 1,678 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.0 1.3 -0.2 2.2 1.5 2.2 1.3 0.3 1.8 F Constrution 1,192 1,186 1,260 -2.5 -1.4 0.3 0.1 -1.4 -0.1 0.7 -0.2 0.9 -0.7 -0.8 -0.5 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 1,395 1,389 1,575 0.8 0.4 1.2 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.3 0.4 1.8 1.6 H Transportation and storage 1,466 1,451 1,658 -0.4 -0.2 1.1 -0.9 0.8 0.9 0.0 0.3 3.0 0.7 1.4 0.6 I Accommodation and food service activities 1,081 1,072 1,079 -0.8 -0.4 -0.2 -0.6 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.6 -2.0 -2.2 -1.0 -1.0 J Information and communication 2,074 2,079 2,165 -0.4 -1.4 0.1 -1.1 -1.4 -2.8 1.7 0.8 0.8 2.6 -0.2 1.0 K Financial and insurance activities 2,212 2,205 2,362 1.1 0.1 1.2 1.2 0.3 -0.2 2.7 -0.2 2.3 3.9 1.9 1.8 L Real estate activities 1,489 1,452 1,653 -0.6 -0.3 -1.2 -0.6 0.2 -0.8 -1.1 -0.5 -2.4 -1.1 -1.6 -0.5 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 1,715 1,717 1,836 -1.1 -2.4 1.1 -1.5 -2.6 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.2 0.8 1.7 0.5 N Administrative and support service activities 1,016 1,013 1,111 0.7 0.0 2.4 0.7 0.9 3.3 2.7 2.6 1.2 0.3 -0.6 0.0 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 1,744 1,765 1,843 -1.8 -1.4 1.0 -0.6 -0.6 -0.9 1.2 2.1 1.5 1.8 0.7 0.4 P Education 1,622 1,598 1,654 -3.3 -3.3 0.0 -2.0 -1.3 -1.2 -0.1 0.7 0.7 0.5 -0.1 -0.6 Q Human health and social work activities 1,676 1,670 1,723 -1.3 -2.0 -0.1 -2.2 -1.4 -1.2 -0.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 1,614 1,583 1,666 -2.8 -3.0 -0.5 -1.4 -1.0 -0.4 -0.5 0.2 -1.1 -0.5 -0.2 -1.6 S Other service activities 1,376 1,331 1,392 -0.9 -0.4 -1.1 -1.1 0.9 -1.4 -0.7 -0.3 -2.2 -1.9 -2.8 -2.5 Source of data: SURS, calculations by IMAD. 2014 2015 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 0.4 1.0 0.5 1.7 1.7 0.7 1.6 1.1 1.0 1.4 0.2 -0.3 1.6 0.8 -0.2 1.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 -0.2 2.5 0.9 1.5 0.8 2.0 2.0 0.5 1.8 1.3 1.0 1.7 0.0 -0.7 1.9 1.1 -0.3 1.7 0.6 0.7 0.4 -0.3 3.1 -0.9 -0.2 -0.1 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.9 2.1 2.2 1.8 4.0 4.3 1.8 4.2 2.2 2.2 4.1 0.2 -0.1 4.2 2.8 0.4 2.6 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.6 4.8 1.7 0.8 -0.1 1.4 1.0 0.2 1.4 0.6 2.4 0.9 -0.1 0.1 0.4 1.5 0.8 1.8 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.2 1.9 -1.4 1.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 -0.8 -0.9 0.8 -2.2 -0.8 -0.1 -2.1 0.7 -1.3 -2.0 0.6 -0.9 0.1 -0.6 -1.6 1.4 0.9 2.1 -2.3 -0.8 1.8 1.5 3.6 2.3 -2.1 1.5 -0.9 0.3 -1.3 -2.0 -1.5 3.6 -0.4 0.0 -0.2 -4.0 8.5 -0.9 7.2 10.4 7.3 10.1 12.2 9.9 -0.2 0.9 5.5 -4.0 -20.3 -0.5 -1.0 -5.5 -7.7 1.8 -9.6 -6.6 -4.2 -5.4 2.4 2.5 1.8 4.3 4.6 1.1 3.7 2.7 2.5 4.4 0.3 1.1 4.8 3.0 0.6 3.2 1.2 2.2 1.8 1.0 4.6 2.3 -1.2 -0.9 -1.0 -0.1 10.3 9.5 -3.0 -0.1 2.9 -0.4 -9.8 -2.8 3.5 0.9 0.6 5.7 -8.2 -6.0 -2.6 12.1 -1.3 1.1 0.8 4.8 2.7 -2.0 3.8 2.3 1.6 2.7 -0.2 1.0 3.0 1.0 -0.6 0.6 3.1 1.2 1.0 2.1 4.3 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.2 -1.4 0.7 0.1 1.4 1.1 -0.9 -1.0 -0.1 -1.0 -1.8 0.3 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 -1.2 3.3 2.2 1.1 0.2 1.6 0.9 0.7 1.7 1.0 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.6 1.9 1.1 2.5 1.9 1.7 1.1 1.2 2.9 0.5 -0.1 -0.5 0.6 0.9 -0.8 0.9 0.4 7.1 1.5 -0.5 1.6 1.0 2.0 0.8 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.5 -1.6 0.3 0.5 0.0 -1.3 1.7 1.6 -0.5 0.6 -1.2 -2.7 -2.0 -2.4 -3.2 -1.0 -1.2 -0.4 -1.3 -1.7 -0.1 -1.1 -0.8 0.9 -6.9 3.6 0.2 1.5 0.9 -0.2 1.7 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.8 0.5 6.5 -1.4 -0.7 1.5 1.6 0.5 1.0 -0.3 1.2 -1.1 2.8 4.3 0.8 0.3 1.0 -1.7 7.5 -1.0 0.5 8.5 -1.8 5.1 2.7 -1.6 4.8 1.1 2.9 1.3 -2.9 3.0 -0.5 -1.6 -1.6 -0.3 -0.1 -1.0 -0.4 -1.8 -2.7 -2.6 -1.1 -1.6 -0.5 -1.0 -1.6 -2.2 -0.9 0.0 -0.5 -0.3 1.0 2.3 -0.2 -1.7 3.4 2.9 -0.3 2.1 2.4 0.7 3.7 1.0 1.9 -0.4 2.1 2.0 0.9 0.2 2.5 -1.1 -1.4 1.5 2.8 2.2 3.2 2.5 3.6 2.1 2.1 0.7 1.1 1.9 0.4 -0.1 0.5 -0.5 -2.0 0.8 -0.7 0.2 0.5 0.7 3.5 -0.3 0.8 0.9 1.9 1.6 1.9 2.8 0.8 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.0 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.8 4.1 -1.2 -0.5 -0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -1.0 -0.8 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 0.7 0.3 1.2 0.4 1.1 0.5 -0.4 0.6 -0.2 0.2 0.9 0.2 -0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -1.6 -0.7 -1.7 0.8 -1.0 1.5 0.0 -1.4 -2.6 0.7 -0.5 -1.4 0.3 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -1.5 -1.4 -1.8 0.4 1.0 -1.7 -2.1 -0.7 0.8 0.3 -0.8 -0.3 -1.8 -1.7 -3.0 -2.8 -1.9 -1.1 -2.1 -3.4 -3.0 -2.6 -2.1 -2.7 -2.2 -0.4 PRICES AND INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS 2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 12 1 2 3 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 1.8 0.2 -0.5 1.1 0.5 0.6 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.6 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 3.6 -0.3 0.9 2.3 1.0 -0.6 -1.0 -0.7 -0.3 1.1 1.5 1.2 2.2 1.6 0.9 0.4 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 7.0 3.6 1.9 3.0 2.7 4.4 3.6 3.7 4.2 2.1 1.0 0.6 3.0 2.6 2.7 2.6 Clothing and footwear 0.2 -0.9 -0.9 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 -0.1 -1.6 -0.9 -1.8 -0.4 -0.4 -2.9 -2.2 -3.2 2.5 Housing, water, electricity, gas 3.1 0.1 -1.3 4.6 1.4 0.3 -0.3 -0.8 -1.6 -1.3 -1.2 -1.0 5.2 3.6 0.4 0.1 Furnishings, household equipment -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -0.6 -0.9 -0.2 -2.0 -1.6 -1.8 -1.9 -0.4 -0.8 -0.9 -1.4 -0.5 -0.7 Medical, pharmaceutical products -0.5 -0.2 0.5 0.1 -0.1 0.7 -0.9 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 1.2 0.8 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 0.4 Transport 0.3 0.2 -5.1 -0.4 -0.2 1.9 -0.1 -0.9 -4.5 -4.4 -5.2 -6.3 -0.3 0.1 -0.9 0.2 Communications -1.2 -1.9 1.1 -0.1 -1.4 -0.5 -2.8 -2.8 -0.5 -1.3 1.7 4.3 -1.5 -1.6 -1.3 -1.4 Recreation and culture 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.4 -0.1 -0.2 3.0 4.2 1.5 0.3 -1.6 -0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 Education 2.6 0.1 0.6 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 Catering services 6.5 1.1 0.5 1.6 0.9 1.7 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.2 -0.1 1.0 1.4 0.6 0.9 1.3 Miscellaneous goods & services 1.3 1.6 1.4 -0.5 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.9 1.1 2.9 -3.2 1.7 1.7 1.9 HCPI 1.9 0.4 -0.8 1.1 0.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 -0.5 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.6 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) 1.6 1.0 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.6 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total 0.0 -0.6 -0.2 -0.6 -0.8 -1.1 -0.5 -0.1 0.1 0.6 -0.4 -1.2 -0.5 -0.5 -1.0 -0.9 Domestic market 0.3 -1.1 -0.5 -0.3 -1.0 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.3 0.0 -0.5 -1.2 -0.3 -0.3 -1.1 -1.5 Non-domestic market -0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.9 -0.6 -0.8 0.1 0.7 0.5 1.3 -0.3 -1.2 -0.7 -0.6 -0.9 -0.4 euro area -0.4 -0.7 0.1 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -0.6 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.1 -1.3 -1.4 -1.2 -1.8 -1.2 non-euro area 0.3 1.1 -0.1 0.0 1.1 0.8 1.8 0.6 0.1 1.8 -1.1 -1.1 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.3 Import price indices -0.4 -1.4 -0.7 -1.5 -2.1 -1.4 -1.0 -1.2 -0.7 0.2 -0.5 -1.6 -0.9 -1.5 -2.0 -2.7 PRICE CONTROL,1 y-o-y growth rates, % Energy prices 0.2 -1.9 -9.9 -4.1 -4.6 -0.2 -1.5 -1.0 -9.0 -7.5 -10.7 -12.6 -2.5 -3.4 -5.7 -4.6 Oil products 1.7 0.7 -12.4 -0.4 -0.9 4.2 1.7 -2.0 -11.9 -9.6 -13.1 -15.1 1.6 0.8 -2.5 -0.9 Transport & communications 11.3 11.1 0.3 10.9 14.6 15.8 7.3 7.3 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.0 14.6 14.6 14.6 Other controlled prices2 -1.5 3.6 1.6 1.5 2.2 5.7 3.2 3.2 5.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.8 3.7 1.4 1.4 Direct control – total 1.2 0.5 -8.5 -0.8 -1.0 2.6 0.4 -0.1 -7.5 -6.4 -9.2 -11.1 -0.1 0.1 -2.0 -1.2 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS3, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate,4 nominal 1.0 0.3 1.5 1.0 0.9 0.0 -1.0 -3.1 -3.7 -2.4 -1.9 1.5 0.9 0.7 1.5 Real (deflator HICP) 1.3 -0.1 1.4 0.7 0.9 -0.7 -1.4 -3.6 -4.8 -3.4 -3.2 1.3 0.7 0.0 1.2 Real (deflator ULC) -0.2 -1.8 -0.6 -0.7 -2.1 -2.3 -2.0 -5.0 -4.8 -4.0 USD / EUR 1.3282 1.3288 1.3611 1.3697 1.3712 1.3252 1.2492 1.1270 1.1047 1.1119 1.0949 1.3704 1.3610 1.3659 1.3823 Source of data: SURS, ECB; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 The structure of groups varies. Data for individual years are not fully comparable to those published previously. On 1 July 2007, the electricity market was liberalised. 2 After a longer period of unchanged prices, at the beginning of 2013, the Decree on the pricing of mandatory local public services in the field of environmental protection (Official Gazette of the RS, No. 87/2012) transferred the responsibility for approving price changes to local communities. 3 Change of the source for effective exchange rate series as of April 2012: a new source, ECB; 4 Harmonised effective exchange rate – a group of 20 EU Member States and 17 euro area countries; an increase in value indicates appreciation of the national currency and vice versa. 2014 2015 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.7 -0.5 -0.7 -0.4 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -0.5 -0.5 0.0 -0.9 -1.0 -1.1 -1.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -1.2 -1.3 -0.3 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.8 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.5 2.4 4.9 6.0 3.5 3.5 3.8 3.7 3.4 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.1 1.8 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.1 -0.6 -1.1 -1.3 -0.5 1.7 -1.2 -1.7 -2.6 -0.5 1.4 -0.6 -3.1 -2.4 -1.7 -1.2 0.0 -0.7 -0.4 -2.0 0.1 0.8 -0.9 0.4 1.3 0.2 -0.5 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -1.3 -1.5 -1.9 -1.3 -1.0 -1.3 -1.5 -1.9 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -1.1 -1.0 -0.1 0.4 -0.7 -1.6 -2.3 -2.1 -2.3 -1.1 -1.3 -1.4 -1.9 -2.1 -2.3 -2.1 -1.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 -1.4 -1.1 0.7 0.8 0.6 -0.7 -1.0 -0.9 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 0.4 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.3 2.3 2.1 0.8 -0.2 -0.9 -0.4 -0.1 -2.2 -4.8 -4.6 -4.0 -5.1 -4.0 -4.2 -4.5 -4.8 -6.5 -6.7 -7.0 -5.2 -1.2 -0.9 0.6 -2.0 -3.1 -3.4 -3.5 -2.4 -2.5 -2.6 1.2 0.1 -0.8 -0.5 -2.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 3.3 4.3 5.3 0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 0.1 1.8 3.0 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.3 1.3 2.2 1.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 -0.8 -1.8 -2.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.4 2.0 1.7 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.8 -0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.5 -3.6 5.8 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.2 6.5 1.1 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -1.0 -1.1 -0.9 -0.6 1.3 1.4 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.1 0.6 -1.4 -1.1 -0.9 -0.6 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.4 -1.0 -1.1 -1.2 -1.4 -1.5 -1.5 -1.2 -1.0 -1.2 -1.1 -1.0 -0.9 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.9 -0.9 -1.3 -1.4 -1.2 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.8 1.1 1.0 0.5 -0.4 -1.1 -1.2 -1.2 -1.3 -2.0 -1.4 -1.2 -1.2 -0.5 -0.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.6 1.2 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.0 -0.6 -1.0 -1.3 -1.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.9 1.3 2.2 1.8 0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.2 1.1 3.0 1.6 1.0 -0.2 -1.0 -2.2 -1.6 -0.9 -0.7 -1.9 -1.1 -1.2 -1.1 -0.8 -1.1 -0.5 -0.9 -2.3 -1.5 -0.9 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.8 -1.8 -1.7 -1.4 -2.9 0.9 1.3 0.2 -1.9 -2.9 0.5 0.7 -4.0 -9.8 -9.4 -7.6 -8.5 -6.7 -7.4 -9.0 -10.3 -12.9 -13.2 -13.5 -11.0 1.5 6.0 5.2 4.1 1.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -5.7 -13.2 -12.3 -10.2 -11.5 -8.4 -8.8 -10.9 -12.6 -15.8 -16.0 -16.1 -13.2 15.8 15.8 15.8 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 6.4 6.4 4.2 3.6 2.3 3.6 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.4 5.7 5.8 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.1 1.4 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 3.6 3.6 1.9 0.0 -0.7 1.2 1.2 -2.6 -8.4 -7.9 -6.2 -7.4 -5.6 -6.2 -7.6 -8.6 -11.3 -11.5 -11.8 -9.8 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -0.8 -1.2 -2.2 -2.9 -4.2 -4.5 -3.6 -3.0 -3.2 -2.5 -1.7 -1.6 -2.3 -1.8 0.9 1.1 0.6 -0.1 -0.8 -1.2 -1.5 -1.3 -1.4 -2.6 -3.4 -4.7 -5.4 -4.8 -4.3 -4.2 -3.3 -2.8 -3.0 -3.6 -3.0 1.3813 1.3732 1.3592 1.3539 1.3316 1.2901 1.2673 1.2472 1.2331 1.1621 1.135 1.0838 1.0779 1.115 1.1213 1.0996 1.1139 1.1221 1.1235 1.0736 1.0877 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 11 12 1 2 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BPM6 methodology, EUR m Current account 930 2,023 2,607 474 479 505 666 703 733 442 822 892 89 212 136 54 Goods -81 708 1,210 233 33 281 299 309 320 350 415 475 -6 -25 75 41 Exports 21,256 21,692 22,989 5,330 5,499 5,549 5,727 5,721 5,992 5,877 6,072 5,935 1,866 1,639 1,795 1,756 Imports 21,337 20,984 21,780 5,096 5,466 5,268 5,428 5,411 5,672 5,526 5,657 5,460 1,872 1,664 1,721 1,715 Services 1,509 1,761 1,736 533 341 321 443 578 395 400 534 621 116 92 88 82 Exports 5,106 5,314 5,555 1,552 1,315 1,177 1,382 1,595 1,401 1,247 1,498 1,718 414 454 388 355 Imports 3,597 3,553 3,819 1,018 974 856 939 1,018 1,006 847 964 1,097 297 362 301 272 Primary income -271 -172 -87 -177 17 67 -7 -114 -33 -127 -8 -117 -7 39 17 15 Receipts 1,159 1,078 1,403 234 287 333 403 321 346 344 453 352 72 151 78 85 Expenditures 1,430 1,249 1,491 410 270 266 410 436 380 471 462 470 79 112 61 71 Secondary income -227 -275 -252 -116 88 -165 -68 -70 51 -182 -119 -86 -14 105 -43 -84 Receipts 931 925 942 202 335 182 242 196 322 185 202 216 63 192 63 60 Expenditures 1,157 1,201 1,193 317 247 347 310 266 271 367 321 302 77 87 106 144 Capital account 41 71 -176 -4 67 0 -39 13 -150 30 -28 56 6 42 1 1 Financial account -142 1,350 2,339 425 138 518 572 688 561 555 979 754 23 -153 183 -99 Direct investment -466 -47 -600 -103 -169 109 -545 -350 185 -353 77 -97 40 -20 95 -16 Assets -439 24 146 -124 46 131 45 -42 12 70 166 -20 72 -36 81 -13 Liabilities 27 71 746 -21 214 21 590 308 -173 422 89 77 33 -16 -14 3 Portfolio investment 220 -3,967 -3,968 424 -2,167 -3,097 -1,221 80 270 624 1,672 -959 -1,823 -371 -408 -2,738 Financial derivatives 89 32 -3 10 15 -2 -9 2 7 22 5 -7 1 9 -1 -3 Other investment 45 5,327 6,821 11 2,489 3,351 2,340 1,030 102 282 -798 1,866 1,799 265 436 2,542 Assets 456 732 4,800 -308 -127 1,710 2,031 298 761 341 -1,358 1,161 52 -459 538 1,099 Other equity 155 152 82 2 68 12 70 1 -1 8 -2 1 -4 2 1 5 Currency and deposits 38 564 5,037 -163 128 1,515 1,964 469 1,089 46 -1,270 1,188 -7 -12 459 1,049 Loans 371 1 -300 -96 -46 -78 -48 -98 -75 -80 -101 -26 13 -90 7 -26 Insurance, pension schemes, and standardised guarantee schemes 28 -10 8 0 -4 17 -3 -4 -2 12 -3 0 -1 -1 6 6 Trade credit and advances -49 19 -14 -43 -281 204 83 -51 -249 346 35 -6 2 -318 24 105 Other assets -88 6 -14 -8 7 40 -35 -19 0 8 -16 4 48 -41 41 -39 Liabilities 411 -4,595 -2,021 -319 -2,616 -1,640 -309 -732 659 59 -560 -705 -1,748 -725 102 -1,443 Other equity 0 -29 3 0 -30 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -30 0 0 Currency and deposits 1,019 -4,169 -831 433 -2,748 -1,075 -54 21 278 -325 -498 -220 -1,839 -665 311 -1,299 Loans -938 -269 -1,239 -558 -91 -365 -297 -691 115 373 -81 -376 -20 -81 13 -187 Insurance, pension schemes, and standardised guarantee schemes 41 39 -54 -10 -2 -1 -40 -2 -10 -7 4 0 -1 -1 0 0 Trade credit and advances 285 -182 -141 -163 240 -214 81 -46 39 13 9 -119 107 45 -267 57 Other liabilities 5 16 240 -21 14 16 -2 -13 238 5 7 11 4 7 45 -14 Special drawing rights (SDR) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserve assets -31 5 89 83 -30 157 8 -74 -3 -20 23 -49 6 -35 62 116 Net errors and omissions -1,113 -743 -92 -45 -408 13 -55 -28 -22 83 185 -194 -72 -407 45 -153 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods 2,112 2,163 2,341 531 579 551 590 573 629 584 634 632 197 185 168 179 Intermediate goods 12,138 12,425 13,032 3,115 3,100 3,231 3,254 3,237 3,202 3,268 3,404 3,342 1,069 869 1,079 1,018 Consumer goods 6,811 6,960 7,676 1,672 1,791 1,773 1,874 1,887 2,134 2,002 2,040 1,905 599 569 559 569 Import of investment goods 2,402 2,573 2,760 564 696 647 696 635 796 657 713 724 241 234 187 203 Intermediate goods 14,005 13,635 13,541 3,282 3,448 3,284 3,364 3,366 3,403 3,448 3,519 3,326 1,208 1,003 1,112 1,051 Consumer goods 5,671 5,906 6,382 1,475 1,554 1,517 1,611 1,603 1,657 1,604 1,635 1,590 516 490 474 517 Source of data: BS, SURS. Note: The methodology of the Slovenian balance of payments and international investment position statistics follows the recommendations in the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual released by the International Monetary Fund. 2014 2015 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 315 285 186 196 307 14 381 349 104 280 130 -22 333 246 201 374 347 160 385 297 244 165 140 17 142 135 -31 205 180 45 96 93 38 220 33 126 256 233 -1 243 183 170 1,998 1,951 1,845 1,930 2,034 1,546 2,142 2,167 1,998 1,828 1,813 1,868 2,195 1,949 1,950 2,174 2,147 1,597 2,190 2,164 2,102 1,832 1,811 1,828 1,788 1,899 1,576 1,936 1,987 1,953 1,731 1,721 1,830 1,975 1,916 1,824 1,918 1,914 1,598 1,947 1,981 1,932 151 155 141 147 191 222 165 130 129 136 137 96 167 221 163 151 194 236 191 183 153 434 461 449 472 553 542 501 478 418 504 395 391 462 518 482 498 583 599 536 504 465 283 305 309 325 362 320 337 348 289 369 258 295 294 298 319 347 389 363 345 321 312 36 26 33 -66 37 -143 -8 8 -63 21 -57 -61 -9 35 -36 -7 -41 -44 -32 -48 -49 170 168 122 112 137 85 99 92 91 163 93 94 158 195 114 144 119 104 129 104 105 134 142 89 178 101 228 107 84 154 142 150 155 167 161 150 151 161 148 161 152 154 -37 -37 -5 -26 -55 -34 20 31 -6 27 -42 -95 -45 -42 -52 -25 -39 -31 -17 -21 -30 59 74 94 73 59 43 94 120 81 121 56 67 62 68 61 73 75 62 80 79 71 97 111 99 100 114 77 75 89 88 95 98 162 107 110 112 99 114 93 96 100 101 -2 7 -29 -16 19 -17 10 20 52 -223 8 16 6 -2 -20 -6 49 14 -7 13 47 434 180 156 237 302 -55 441 108 184 269 432 25 98 193 173 613 316 92 346 229 556 31 -103 -94 -348 78 -230 -198 30 39 116 -44 -51 -258 -149 -9 235 -5 -64 -27 -310 24 63 15 -7 37 92 -127 -8 125 1 -114 55 54 -39 38 65 64 57 -64 -13 58 -18 32 118 87 385 14 104 190 95 -38 -230 99 104 219 187 73 -171 63 0 14 369 -42 49 -946 -219 -56 -312 106 286 425 -662 506 193 302 129 1,051 328 293 -1,026 -135 202 503 518 2 -10 2 -1 4 -3 0 10 -4 2 -6 20 7 2 0 3 -3 -5 1 0 -3 372 1,246 456 637 533 93 404 -343 772 -328 265 -170 187 -668 -158 27 1,341 320 205 15 60 74 1,177 328 526 271 -98 125 -234 598 398 482 -261 121 -996 -179 -182 1,106 -146 200 119 188 6 69 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -2 2 0 6 -1 -2 0 0 1 0 0 0 7 1,028 410 527 411 -4 62 -369 690 768 457 -343 -68 -863 -232 -176 1,090 29 68 109 180 -59 24 -22 -50 -69 1 -30 1 -32 -44 -8 -49 -22 -45 -18 -38 -4 -27 4 -20 -37 6 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 4 4 4 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 75 87 -75 71 -55 -109 114 101 -30 -321 20 128 199 -80 67 48 16 -138 116 19 47 38 -29 16 -22 -14 15 -19 33 -30 -3 7 -1 2 -6 6 -17 3 -11 12 11 -2 -299 -69 -128 -112 -262 -191 -278 109 -175 725 216 -91 -66 -329 -21 -210 -235 -465 -5 104 128 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -88 -24 -6 -23 28 45 -52 16 -17 278 -84 -131 -110 -190 -201 -107 -33 -42 -145 60 6 -191 39 -160 -176 -165 -256 -270 -52 -70 237 662 -225 -64 4 175 -259 -58 -361 43 -32 172 0 -13 -13 -13 -1 -1 -1 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -58 14 126 -107 -3 63 87 -31 -18 -366 231 148 -167 25 151 -173 -27 81 47 -5 -16 -14 37 -25 -17 23 -19 61 -54 231 7 36 -38 23 -20 4 29 -34 17 30 -45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -21 -7 11 4 -2 -20 -52 -14 38 -27 24 -76 32 -43 12 54 9 -23 -35 21 -43 121 -112 -1 57 -25 -52 49 -261 27 213 293 30 -241 -52 -8 245 -80 -82 -32 -81 265 204 203 183 204 207 161 205 226 202 201 169 193 222 204 212 219 233 168 231 246 N/A 1,135 1,117 1,062 1,075 1,156 893 1,187 1,195 1,099 909 1,025 1,058 1,185 1,146 1,093 1,165 1,205 935 1,202 1,215 N/A 645 634 583 657 662 475 750 729 707 698 607 626 769 615 658 767 697 470 737 699 N/A 257 244 224 229 230 182 223 267 272 257 193 210 254 240 231 242 249 212 263 262 N/A 1,121 1,109 1,139 1,117 1,188 974 1,204 1,200 1,195 1,008 1,091 1,135 1,223 1,212 1,132 1,176 1,165 975 1,187 1,205 N/A 526 547 552 513 551 472 580 593 554 511 494 533 577 536 527 573 568 458 564 585 N/A MONETARY INDICATORS AND INTEREST RATES 2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 233 263 2,327 232 231 232 233 233 239 239 245 209 227 228 Central government (S. 1311) 6,563 7,240 7,112 5,024 4,995 4,965 4,881 6,563 6,448 6,437 6,476 6,154 6,262 6,296 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 581 685 622 601 604 610 570 581 585 585 584 582 577 582 Households (S. 14, 15) 8,917 8,762 8,856 9,059 9,052 9,031 8,996 8,917 8,879 8,849 8,853 8,850 8,835 8,810 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 14,902 11,729 10,534 18,633 18,501 18,102 17,918 14,902 14,691 14,599 14,544 14,531 14,429 14,039 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 1,763 1,485 1,411 1,983 1,978 1,962 1,966 1,763 1,993 1,968 1,962 1,945 1,929 1,921 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 5,020 3,684 3,206 5,320 5,311 5,198 4,752 5,020 5,014 5,294 4,818 5,012 4,863 3,896 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 29,620 25,155 23,816 33,754 33,705 33,198 32,569 29,620 29,594 29,706 29,154 29,298 29,017 27,756 In foreign currency 1,097 950 824 1,192 1,177 1,152 1,144 1,097 1,090 1,075 1,046 1,036 1,025 1,019 Securities, total 7,026 7,469 7,062 5,669 5,554 5,513 5,366 7,026 6,921 6,944 7,028 6,731 6,845 6,763 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 27,051 25,843 25,893 30,184 30,194 30,091 29,645 27,051 27,255 27,501 27,034 27,187 27,067 26,577 Overnight 8,558 10,157 12,717 9,055 8,812 8,861 8,729 8,558 8,779 9,066 8,979 9,278 9,390 9,582 With agreed maturity – short-term 6,689 5,955 4,481 7,696 8,260 8,222 8,110 6,689 6,730 6,888 6,893 7,215 7,088 6,768 With agreed maturity – long-term 11,569 9,267 8,204 13,159 12,843 12,688 12,495 11,569 11,422 11,264 10,852 10,389 10,252 9,875 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 235 464 491 274 279 320 311 235 324 283 310 305 337 352 Deposits in foreign currency, total 487 510 655 541 521 506 511 487 493 488 490 496 496 508 Overnight 324 354 508 362 333 324 334 324 328 324 333 335 336 350 With agreed maturity – short-term 91 84 80 95 109 104 98 91 93 93 90 94 92 90 With agreed maturity – long-term 72 72 67 84 79 78 79 72 72 71 67 67 68 68 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.11 0.07 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 1.86 0.98 1.78 1.65 1.56 1.48 1.46 1.36 1.22 1.15 1.07 1.04 1.00 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 5.40 5.06 5.31 5.11 5.49 5.17 5.36 5.38 5.42 5.26 5.58 5.23 4.84 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 3.86 4.41 2.66 3.37 3.73 4.71 4.59 6.58 3.96 4.21 6.63 5.51 1.53 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operations 0.54 0.16 0.05 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.15 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates 0.221 0.210 -0.019 0.226 0.223 0.226 0.223 0.275 0.292 0.288 0.305 0.330 0.325 0.241 6-month rates 0.336 0.309 0.054 0.342 0.340 0.342 0.327 0.373 0.396 0.387 0.407 0.430 0.417 0.333 LIBOR 3-month rates 0.020 0.012 -0.755 0.018 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.022 0.018 0.021 0.017 0.016 0.012 6-month rates 0.080 0.066 -0.688 0.080 0.080 0.080 0.072 0.075 0.083 0.081 0.078 0.075 0.068 0.069 Source of data: BS, EUROSTAT. 2014 2015 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 229 230 230 237 246 263 265 282 445 642 838 1,045 1,299 1,488 1,699 1,942 2,175 2,327 6,459 6,512 6,581 6,936 7,010 7,240 7,443 7,502 7,163 7,368 7,380 7,387 7,449 7,445 7,301 7,380 7,387 7,112 594 596 606 611 618 685 654 631 633 633 633 635 634 631 624 623 618 622 8,808 8,814 8,813 8,807 8,791 8,762 8,842 8,802 8,834 8,826 8,847 8,836 8,821 8,812 8,825 8,873 8,857 8,856 13,867 13,764 13,586 12,603 12,511 11,729 11,823 11,726 11,674 11,569 11,493 11,396 11,190 11,137 10,941 10,824 10,688 10,534 1,881 1,858 1,873 1,665 1,654 1,485 1,463 1,455 1,642 1,519 1,511 1,466 1,470 1,405 1,435 1,423 1,411 1,411 4,347 4,108 3,732 4,037 3,915 3,684 3,657 3,696 3,479 3,353 3,365 3,008 3,181 3,443 3,312 3,904 3,713 3,206 28,005 27,645 27,220 26,425 26,191 25,155 25,232 25,179 24,885 24,707 24,661 24,240 24,316 24,469 24078 24,543 24,226 23,816 1,010 1,011 994 986 973 950 1,059 1,003 983 957 955 937 904 874 845 839 839 824 6,933 6,987 6,968 7,240 7,326 7,469 7,576 7,615 7,539 7,566 7,574 7,512 7,487 7,495 7,478 7,606 7,568 7,062 27,060 26,869 26,318 26,492 26,309 25,843 25,930 25,800 25,389 25,884 25,894 25,715 25,974 26,073 25,652 26,330 26,442 25,893 10,236 10,138 9,870 10,329 10,398 10,157 10,731 10,947 10,842 11,200 11,458 11,533 12,080 12,278 12,130 12,991 13,244 12,717 6,876 6,928 6,720 6,477 6,250 5,955 5,708 5,610 5,350 5,302 5,217 5,032 4,896 4,743 4,664 4,341 4,325 4,481 9,585 9,368 9,265 9,172 9,155 9,267 9,078 8,838 8,762 8,916 8,707 8,574 8,411 8,513 8,349 8,410 8,322 8,204 363 435 463 514 506 464 413 405 435 466 512 576 587 539 509 588 551 491 510 516 538 528 535 510 566 604 601 585 612 620 616 616 623 618 651 655 345 354 354 348 353 354 401 447 442 433 464 469 468 475 484 478 498 508 96 92 115 110 110 84 86 77 81 75 71 77 73 69 71 71 82 80 69 70 69 70 72 72 79 80 78 77 77 74 75 72 68 69 71 67 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.93 0.89 0.85 0.81 0.74 0.66 0.58 0.51 0.46 0.39 0.37 0.36 0.31 0.33 0.31 0.28 0.28 0.28 5.20 5.01 5.09 4.65 4.72 4.38 4.17 4.85 3.34 3.49 3.5 3.39 3.38 3.36 3.34 3.39 3.14 5.05 2.82 .. 4.66 3.07 4.5 3.89 2.40 3.39 4.58 .. .. 1.9 .. 0.81 1.71 .. 0.15 0.15 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.205 0.192 0.097 0.083 0.081 0.081 0.063 0.048 0.027 0.006 -0.010 -0.014 -0.019 -0.028 -0.037 -0.054 -0.088 -0.127 0.305 0.292 0.200 0.184 0.182 0.176 0.152 0.126 0.097 0.074 0.057 0.049 0.049 0.044 0.035 0.020 -0.016 -0.040 0.013 0.020 0.008 0.008 0.006 -0.020 -0.466 -0.889 -0.802 -0.812 -0.791 -0.782 -0.762 -0.729 -0.729 -0.728 -0.784 -0.792 0.072 0.073 0.059 0.057 0.053 0.023 -0.403 -0.773 -0.707 -0.727 -0.704 -0.711 -0.710 -0.681 -0.672 -0.674 -0.754 -0.737 PUBLIC FINANCE 2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 2015 2014 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 4 5 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS–IMF methodology), current prices, EUR m GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 14,999.1 14,728.2 15,492.0 3,733.1 4,080.2 3,634.1 3,905.1 3,686.5 4,266.2 3,635.7 3,972.5 3,864.7 1,286.1 1,337.4 Current revenues 14,030.6 13,637.4 14,377.0 3,510.9 3,648.8 3,409.9 3,695.2 3,501.4 3,770.4 3,413.5 3,756.8 3,594.1 1,185.4 1,279.3 Tax revenues 13,118.3 12,648.4 13,191.6 3,188.1 3,406.0 3,147.0 3,317.0 3,237.5 3,490.1 3,252.4 3,524.1 3,277.4 1,116.3 1,072.3 Taxes on income and profit 2,656.6 2,137.4 2,385.9 442.5 606.9 595.6 686.3 466.3 637.7 601.7 786.4 504.0 241.3 185.7 Social security contributions 5,244.1 5,127.2 5,272.5 1,261.3 1,317.6 1,303.9 1,302.5 1,300.7 1,365.3 1,339.5 1,353.4 1,357.7 435.7 432.5 Taxes on payroll and workforce 25.6 23.4 20.2 5.5 6.3 4.8 5.3 4.7 5.4 4.5 4.9 4.6 1.8 1.7 Taxes on property 233.9 254.1 244.2 91.3 70.8 19.2 29.3 100.3 95.4 26.9 41.7 85.2 11.9 6.0 Domestic taxes on goods and services 4,876.1 5,027.4 5,191.2 1,357.0 1,406.5 1,170.9 1,300.1 1,350.5 1,369.6 1,246.0 1,322.2 1,305.9 444.9 439.2 Taxes on international trade & transactions 82.5 77.5 77.7 18.2 17.0 19.1 19.0 18.5 21.1 21.3 21.5 20.2 6.6 5.7 Other taxes -0.6 1.3 -0.2 12.4 -19.2 33.5 -25.7 -3.5 -4.5 12.5 -6.0 -0.2 -25.9 1.4 Non-tax revenues 912.3 989.0 1,185.4 322.8 242.7 262.9 378.2 264.0 280.3 161.2 232.7 316.7 69.1 207.0 Capital revenues 62.5 67.1 51.4 12.8 30.4 11.6 10.5 13.1 16.2 10.8 16.2 26.2 3.0 3.5 Grants 9.2 32.7 18.9 14.7 2.4 1.3 11.0 4.3 2.2 2.4 1.7 4.7 1.0 0.5 Transferred revenues 51.7 52.7 4.5 50.9 0.9 1.4 0.4 0.5 2.3 1.2 0.3 19.3 0.1 0.2 Receipts from the EU budget 845.1 938.4 1,040.3 143.8 397.7 209.9 188.0 167.2 475.2 207.8 197.5 220.5 96.6 53.8 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TOTAL EXPENDITURES 16,125.7 16,286.4 16,751.2 3,846.2 4,291.2 4,290.2 3,957.1 4,009.3 4,494.6 4,290.5 3,980.8 3,974.9 1,335.2 1,326.2 Current expenditures 6,813.5 6,838.4 7,042.1 1,496.7 1,679.8 1,923.6 1,692.4 1,581.3 1,844.8 1,969.6 1,678.2 1,608.7 622.5 536.0 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3,727.7 3,616.7 3,610.4 871.2 900.4 919.5 908.4 883.3 899.2 926.1 905.5 877.0 287.5 290.5 Expenditures on goods and services 2,373.0 2,238.9 2,232.3 526.7 587.2 531.7 538.8 546.9 614.8 500.1 556.7 544.2 183.3 165.5 Interest payments 647.9 840.1 1,097.4 77.8 148.0 451.8 221.9 131.0 292.6 497.2 178.4 148.0 143.0 73.3 Reserves 64.9 142.6 102.1 20.8 44.2 20.5 23.3 20.1 38.2 46.2 37.6 39.5 8.8 6.8 Current transfers 7,687.0 7,671.3 7,591.9 1,922.4 1,906.6 1,984.3 1,848.4 1,883.4 1,875.8 1,936.5 1,863.9 1,899.5 590.1 644.3 Subsidies 502.7 519.5 467.4 77.5 139.6 205.5 80.3 71.3 110.2 201.2 79.1 47.7 31.9 33.2 Current transfers to individuals and households 6,384.2 6,343.1 6,335.0 1,626.0 1,554.5 1,561.9 1,600.0 1,621.1 1,552.1 1,564.2 1,592.7 1,657.7 531.0 543.8 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 741.0 734.2 714.3 185.7 205.3 204.5 147.7 173.2 188.8 156.5 180.5 186.0 25.1 55.8 Current transfers abroad 59.0 74.4 75.2 33.2 7.2 12.3 20.4 17.8 24.7 14.5 11.6 8.1 2.0 11.4 Capital expenditures 915.0 1,031.8 1,444.4 259.7 484.2 188.1 269.8 414.6 572.0 175.3 285.1 350.1 75.0 92.5 Capital transfers 319.9 319.5 270.0 69.3 155.6 31.5 50.7 67.9 119.8 37.9 58.7 60.8 14.8 20.3 Payments to the EU budget 390.3 425.5 402.9 98.0 65.0 162.7 95.9 62.2 82.1 171.1 94.8 55.8 32.7 33.1 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -1,126.6 -1,558.2 -1,259.2 -113.1 -211.0 -656.1 -52.0 -322.8 -228.3 -654.7 -8.2 -110.1 -49.1 11.2 Source of data: Bulletin of Government Finance. Note: In line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the general government are not consolidated. 2014 2015 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1,281.7 1,175.8 1,166.8 1,343.9 1,382.2 1,317.0 1,569.3 1,312.5 1,075.2 1,248.1 1,440.0 1,197.2 1,335.3 1,310.4 1,325.9 1,227.9 1,429.5 1,388.0 1,230.5 1,130.0 1,147.2 1,224.2 1,260.4 1,185.2 1,325.1 1,276.7 998.9 1,138.0 1,327.2 1,151.4 1,278.2 1,199.6 1,260.8 1,135.7 1,367.3 1,245.3 1,128.4 1,029.8 1,058.3 1,149.4 1,157.6 1,117.5 1,216.2 1,221.6 945.9 1,084.9 1,272.4 1,036.3 1,215.5 1,087.8 1,153.6 1,036.0 1,287.9 1,178.2 259.4 75.3 191.5 199.5 197.0 204.1 236.6 207.6 202.6 191.5 323.0 187.7 275.7 81.3 210.2 212.5 206.9 228.6 434.2 436.8 432.9 431.1 438.2 439.1 488.0 454.6 440.4 444.5 455.0 449.0 449.4 456.2 451.3 450.3 453.5 457.4 1.8 1.9 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 2.1 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.3 1.5 2.0 1.6 11.4 23.6 37.5 39.2 27.6 40.4 28.2 11.1 10.0 5.8 9.0 11.9 20.9 25.5 29.4 30.3 32.8 30.3 416.0 489.1 383.2 478.2 485.4 421.5 462.8 504.8 361.2 379.9 482.1 375.3 464.8 517.4 443.3 345.1 582.2 454.4 6.7 6.2 5.9 6.3 6.9 6.7 7.6 5.9 6.2 9.1 8.0 6.7 6.8 7.0 6.6 6.5 7.3 5.8 -1.2 -3.0 5.9 -6.4 0.9 4.1 -9.1 36.0 -76.0 52.5 -6.5 4.2 -3.7 -1.4 11.4 -10.2 3.3 0.0 102.2 100.3 88.9 74.8 102.8 67.7 108.9 55.1 53.0 53.1 54.8 115.1 62.7 111.8 107.3 99.7 79.4 67.1 4.0 4.7 3.9 4.4 4.1 4.0 9.8 3.3 3.7 3.8 4.5 4.2 7.5 11.1 6.7 8.3 9.6 19.9 9.5 0.3 0.2 3.8 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 3.9 0.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.3 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 19.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.5 37.5 40.6 15.3 111.3 115.6 126.3 233.3 32.0 71.6 104.2 107.1 41.3 49.1 80.2 57.8 79.9 52.3 122.5 1,295.8 1,411.8 1,279.4 1,318.2 1,500.5 1,389.9 1,608.1 1,422.5 1,402.6 1,465.5 1,335.7 1,296.4 1,348.9 1,406.9 1,263.5 1,304.6 1,439.9 1,410.3 533.9 516.5 524.0 540.7 686.6 568.3 591.0 637.9 619.2 712.6 573.6 546.3 558.3 529.9 525.7 553.1 634.1 574.1 330.4 299.5 294.0 289.8 294.6 293.1 311.2 316.7 303.8 305.5 287.8 290.8 326.9 296.7 288.2 292.3 296.9 297.2 190.0 207.9 169.9 169.1 179.6 182.4 253.6 153.8 146.7 199.7 179.0 164.9 212.9 199.2 171.9 172.9 180.9 189.4 5.7 3.4 53.2 74.4 204.6 84.5 3.5 142.8 159.3 195.2 97.8 73.4 7.1 22.5 52.7 72.8 141.5 72.5 7.7 5.8 6.9 7.4 7.8 8.3 22.7 24.7 9.4 12.1 9.0 17.2 11.4 11.6 12.9 15.0 14.8 14.9 614.0 717.7 580.1 585.6 599.7 618.5 657.9 676.1 619.9 640.5 614.0 617.0 632.9 728.3 584.5 586.6 581.8 601.2 15.1 31.0 18.1 22.2 23.9 43.8 42.6 78.3 103.0 19.9 10.9 29.5 38.7 17.8 14.4 15.5 14.0 15.6 525.1 613.3 502.8 505.0 513.3 517.6 521.3 515.8 516.7 531.7 542.4 520.7 529.6 636.7 510.8 510.1 507.5 517.8 66.8 59.3 56.7 57.1 59.2 54.3 75.3 75.7 -3.8 84.7 56.0 62.1 62.4 71.4 58.4 56.2 57.8 54.1 7.0 14.0 2.4 1.3 3.3 2.7 18.7 6.3 4.0 4.2 4.6 4.8 2.2 2.4 0.8 4.8 2.5 13.8 102.3 129.7 131.4 153.4 151.2 141.8 285.2 63.9 43.5 67.9 93.1 83.3 108.8 116.0 111.3 122.8 166.9 153.2 15.6 22.6 22.8 22.4 44.3 31.0 40.9 10.3 17.0 10.6 20.3 14.4 24.1 16.0 16.6 28.2 29.7 40.7 30.0 25.2 21.0 16.0 18.7 30.3 33.1 34.3 102.9 33.9 34.7 35.4 24.8 16.6 25.3 13.8 27.5 41.2 -14.1 -236.0 -112.6 25.7 -118.4 -72.8 -38.8 -110.0 -327.4 -217.4 104.4 -99.2 -13.6 -96.5 62.5 -76.7 -10.4 -22.3 Acronyms Acronyms in the text BoS – Bank of Slovenia, CPI – Consumer Price Index, ECB – European Central Bank, EIA – Energy Information Administration, EK – European Commission, ESI – Economic Sentiment Indicator, ESS – Employment Service of Slovenia, EU – European Union, EUR – Euro, EUROSTAT – Statistical Office of the European Union, FED – Federal Reserve System, GDI – Gender Development Index, GII – Gender Inequality Index, HDI – Human Development Index, HICP – Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, ICT – Information and Communication Technology, IHDI – Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index, IMAD – Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, MF – Ministry of Finance, NFI – Non-monetary Financial Institutions, OPEC – Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, PMI – Purchasing Managers Index, PPI – Producer Price Index, RS – Republic of Slovenia, SKD – Standard Classification of Activities, SRE – Statistical Register of Employment, SURS – Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, UL – Official Gazette , USD – US Dollar. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities A – Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B – Mining and quarrying, C – Manufacturing, 10 – Manufacture of food products, 11 – Manufacture of beverages, 12 – Manufacture of tobacco products, 13 – Manufacture of textiles, 14 – Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15 – Manufacture of leather and related products, 16 – Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17 – Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18– Printing and reproduction of recorded media, 19– Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, 20– Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21 – Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22 – Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23 – Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24 – Manufacture of basic metals, 25 – Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26 – Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27 – Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28 – Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c., 29– Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, 30– Manufacture of other transport equipment, 31 – Manufacture of furniture, 32 – Other manufacturing, 33 - Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D– Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, E– Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities, F – Construction, G – Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H – Transportation and storage, I – Accommodation and food service activities, J – Information and communication, K – Financial and insurance activities, L – Real estate activities, M – Professional, scientific and technical activities, N – Administrative and support service activities, O – Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P – Education, Q – Human health and social work activities, R – Arts, entertainment and recreation, S – Other service activities, T – Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods- and services- producing activities of households for own use, U – Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AT-Austria, BA-Bosnia and Herzegovina, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, HR-Croatia, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IE-Ireland, IL-Israel, IT-Italy, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RS-Republic of Serbia, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America. No. 1, Vol. XXII, 2016