22. MAJ 2006 22 MAY 2006 št./No 105 17 RUDARSTVO IN PREDELOVALNE DEJAVNOSTI MINING AND MANUFACTURING št./No 12 POSLOVNE TENDENCE – INVESTICIJE V INDUSTRIJI, SLOVENIJA, APRIL 2006 BUSINESS TENDENCY – INVESTMENT IN INDUSTRY, SLOVENIA, APRIL 2006 Anketa o investicijah je del Ankete o poslovnih tendencah v predelovalnih dejavnostih. V njej sodelujejo poleg podjetij, ki so vključena v mesečno Anketo o poslovnih tendencah v predelovalnih dejavnostih, tudi podjetja, ki so po Standardni klasifikaciji dejavnosti uvrščena v dejavnosti rudarstvo in oskrba z elektriko, plinom in vodo. Omenjeno anketo izvajamo dvakrat na leto, in sicer marca ali aprila ter oktobra ali novembra. The Investment Survey is part of the Business Tendency Survey in Manufacturing. In addition to enterprises participating in the monthly Business Tendency Survey in Manufacturing, it also covers enterprises classified according to the Standard Classification of Activities into mining, and electricity, gas and water supply. The mentioned survey is carried out twice a year in March or April and in October or November. V aprilu 2006 je vlagalo v osnovna sredstva 96 % podjetij. Investicijska vlaganja v letu 2006 so bila glede na leto 2005 v povprečju večja za 19 %, kar je manj kot so direktorji napovedali v novembru 2005. In April 2006, 96% of enterprises had fixed capital formation. On average, fixed capital formation in 2006 exceeded 2005 results by 19%, which is less than managers predicted in November 2005. Precej več direktorjev, kar 30 % je sedanje poslovno stanje ocenilo z dobro, 12 % direktorjev je stanje ocenilo s slabo. Ocene pričakovanega poslovnega stanja v naslednjih 6 mesecih so še naprej optimistične. More managers think that the present business situation is good than bad; 30% of managers evaluated the present business situation as good and 12% as bad. The evaluation of the expected business situation in the next six months continues to be optimistic. 1. INVESTICIJE V INDUSTRIJI 1. INVESTMENT IN INDUSTRY 1.1 Delež podjetij, ki investirajo 1.1 Share of investment enterprises 90 92 94 96 98 100 A B A B A B A B A 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 % © SURS A – rezultati spomladanske ankete / spring survey results B – rezultati jesenske ankete / autumn survey results Statistične informacije, št. 105/2006 2 Rapid Reports No 105/2006 1.2 Investicije v osnovna sredstva Fixed capital investment 1.2.1 Investicije v osnovna sredstva - % spremembe glede na predhodno leto Fixed capital investment - % change in relation to preceding year 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 % Napoved za opazovano leto, izražena v predhodnem letu. / Assessment for the observed year made in the preceding year. Spomladanska ocena za tekoče leto v primerjavi s predhodnim letom. / Spring assessment for the observed year made in comparison with the preceding year. Jesenska ocena za tekoče leto v primerjavi s predhodnim letom. / Autumn assessment for the observed year made in comparison with the preceding year. Ocena za opazovano leto, izražena v naslednjem letu. / Assessment for the observed year made next year. © SURS 2 POSLOVNO STANJE PODJETIJ BUSINESS SITUATION OF INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES 2.1 Sedanje in pričakovano poslovno stanje Present and expected business situation A – rezultati spomladanske ankete / spring survey results B – rezultati jesenske ankete / autumn survey results 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 A B A B A B A B A B A 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 % sedanje poslovno stanje / present business situation pričakovano poslovno stanje / expected business situation © SURS Statistične informacije, št. 105/2006 Rapid Reports No 105/2006 3 2.2 Sedanje poslovno stanje Present business situation A – rezultati spomladanske ankete / spring survey results B – rezultati jesenske ankete / autumn survey results 2.3 Pričakovano poslovno stanje v naslednjih 6 mesecih Expected business situation in the next 6 months A – rezultati spomladanske ankete / spring survey results B – rezultati jesenske ankete / autumn survey results 0 20 40 60 80 100 A B A B A B A B A B A 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 % dobro / good zadovoljivo / satisfactory slabo / bad © SURS 0 20 40 60 80 100 A B A B A B A B A B A 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 % boljše / better enako / same slabše / w orse © SURS Statistične informacije, št. 105/2006 4 Rapid Reports No 105/2006 METODOLOŠKA POJASNILA METHODOLOGICAL EXPLANATIONS NAMEN STATISTIČNEGA RAZISKOVANJA PURPOSE OF THE STATISTICAL SURVEY Namen kvalitativne Ankete o investicijah (PA-INV) je pridobiti informacije o obsegu in strukturi investicijskih vlaganj, vplivih različnih dejavnikov na investiranje in o poslovnem stanju podjetij. The purpose of the qualitative Investment Survey (PA-INV) is to obtain information on the volume and type of fixed investment, factors influencing investment and assessment of the enterprises’ business situation. Panelno anketo o poslovnih tendencah, katere del je tudi investicijska anketa, izvajamo od aprila 1995 s poenotenim vprašalnikom, na podlagi poenotene metodologije in z enako periodiko, kot jo izvajajo v državah članicah Evropske unije že več desetletij. Zato so vsi podatki neposredno primerljivi. The Survey on Business Tendency in Manufacturing, a part of which is also the Investment Survey, has been carried out since April 1995 with the harmonised questionnaire, methodology and periodicity which have been used in EU Member States for several decades. Therefore, all data are directly comparable. ENOTA OPAZOVANJA OBSERVATION UNITS Anketo izvajamo na vzorcu podjetij, ki so po Standardni klasifikaciji dejavnosti (SKD) razvrščena v rudarstvo, predelovalne dejavnosti in oskrbo z elektriko, plinom in vodo (SKD 10-41), to je v industrijo. The survey is carried out twice a year on the sample of enterprises registered in mining, manufacturing, and electricity, gas and water supply of the Standard Classification of Activity (SKD 10-41), i.e. in industry. Pri oblikovanju vzorca oziroma panela podjetij smo uporabili dve merili: In designing the sample, i.e. the panel of enterprises, two criteria were used: − velikost podjetja (število zaposlenih, skladno z zakonom o gospodarskih družbah) in − the size of the enterprise (the number of employees in accordance with the Companies Act) and − razvrstitev podjetja po SKD-ju. − the classification of the enterprise according to the SKD. VIRI SOURCES Na spomladanski vprašalnik, ki vsebuje pet kratkih kvalitativnih vprašanj, odgovarjajo direktorji ali drugi vodilni delavci podjetij v marcu ali aprilu. Na jesenski vprašalnik, ki vsebuje enajst kvalitativnih vprašanj, pa v oktobru ali novembru. Managers of enterprises or other executives are responding to the spring questionnaire in March or April and to the autumn questionnaire in October or November. The spring questionnaire includes five short qualitative questions and the autumn one includes eleven. ZAJETJE COVERAGE V panel smo vključili vsa velika podjetja, 62 % srednje velikih (ali 67 % zaposlenih) in 20 % malih podjetij (ali 22 % zaposlenih). Panelni vzorec pokriva 42 % podjetij vzorčnega okvira ali 79 % zaposlenih v rudarstvu, predelovalnih dejavnostih in oskrbi z elektriko, plinom in vodo. The panel includes all large enterprises, 62% of medium-sized enterprises (or 67% of employees) and 20% of small enterprises (or 22% of employees). The panel covers 42% of the enterprises of the studied population or 79% of employees in mining, manufacturing, and electricity, gas and water supply. NAČIN ZBIRANJA PODATKOV METHOD OF DATA COLLECTION Anketo izvajamo dvakrat letno po pošti, in sicer marca ali aprila in oktobra ali novembra. The survey is carried out twice a year by mail, i.e. in March or April and in October or November. UTEŽEVANJE ODGOVOROV WEIGHTS FOR RESPONSES Odgovori so uteženi tako, da odražajo relativno pomembnost posameznega podjetja v vzorcu. Znotraj oddelkov SKD so odgovori uteženi s številom zaposlenih. Answers to individual questions are weighted, so that they reflect relative importance of individual enterprises in the panel. Inside SKD divisions responses are weighted with the number of employees. NEODGOVORI NON-RESPONSES Neodgovore obdelamo skladno s poenoteno metodologijo; delež neodgovorov se giblje med 8 % in 15 % (povprečno 10 %). Non-responses are processed in accordance with the harmonised methodology and vary between 8% and 15% (10% on average). DEFINICIJE DEFINITIONS Grafikoni prikazujejo strukturo odgovorov in ravnotežja po posameznih vprašanjih. Ravnotežje je razlika med pozitivnimi in negativnimi odgovori, izražena v odstotkih. The charts show the structure of answers and the balances by individual questions. Balance is the difference between positive and negative answers, expressed in percent. OBJAVLJANJE PODATKOV PUBLISHING Sodelujoči v anketi prejmejo informacijo o oddelku SKD, v katerega se po dejavnosti razvrščajo, in o rudarstvu, predelovalnih dejavnostih in oskrbi z elektriko, plinom in vodo, to je o industriji, vendar le, če so na anketo odgovorili. Respondents participating in the survey receive information for division in which they are classified and for mining, manufacturing, and electricity, gas and water supply, i.e. industry, as a whole. However, they receive it only if they responded to the survey. Statistične informacije, št. 105/2006 Rapid Reports No 105/2006 5 Drugim uporabnikom pa so dostopni podatki na ravni industrije in njenih oddelkov in po velikostnih razredih podjetij. Podatki so objavljeni v Statističnih informacijah – Poslovne tendence – Investicije v industriji. Other users can get data for industry and its divisions and data for large, medium-sized and small enterprises. Data are published in the Rapid Reports – Business Tendency – Investment in industry. Spomladanski vprašalnik: Spring questionnaire: Investicijska vlaganja v osnovna sredstva v letošnjem letu v primerjavi s preteklim: večja za ... %, približno enaka, manjša za ... %, ne načrtujemo investicij? Percentage change in investment this year on investment last year: higher by …%, about the same, lower by …%, no investment planned? Sedanje poslovno stanje podjetja: dobro, zadovoljivo, slabo? Assessment of the present business situation: good, satisfactory, bad? Pričakovano poslovno stanje podjetja v naslednjih šestih mesecih: boljše, enako, slabše? Expected business situation in the next six months: better, the same, worse? Pretežno lastništvo podjetja: zasebna domača last, zasebna tuja last, družbena lastnina, državna lastnina? Ownership of the company by majority: domestic private, foreign private, public/social, general government? Investicijska vlaganja v osnovna sredstva v preteklem letu v primerjavi s predpreteklim: večja za ... %, približno enaka, manjša za ... %, ne načrtujemo investicij? Percentage change in investment last year on investment two years ago: higher by …%, about the same, lower by …%, no investment planned? Jesenski vprašalnik: Autumn questionnaire: Investicijska vlaganja v osnovna sredstva bodo v naslednjem letu v primerjavi z letošnjim: večja za ... %, približno enaka, manjša za ... %, ne načrtujemo investicij? Percentage change in investment next year on investment this year: higher by …%, about the same, lower by …%, no investment planned? Struktura investicij letos in naslednje leto: zamenjava stare opreme, razširitev obstoječih zmogljivosti, razširitev proizvodnje na nove proizvode, avtomatizacija in mehanizacija, uvajanje novih proizvodnih tehnologij, racionalna raba energije, ekološke sanacije, večja varnost pri delu, ostalo? Structure of the investment this year and next year: replacement of old equipment, investment aimed at extending production capacity with an unchanged product range, investment aimed at extending production capacity so as to extend the product range, mechanisation or automation of manufacturing process, introduction of new production techniques, energy saving, pollution control, safety measures, other? Razlogi za neinvestiranje: nezadostno povpraševanje, premajhen profit, previsok kapitalski vložek, težave pri pridobivanju kreditov, bojazen pred zadolžitvijo, previsoke kreditne obresti, nejasno lastništvo - privatizacija, ostalo? Factors limiting investment decisions: insufficient demand, insufficient profits, too high cost of capital, insufficient credit guarantees, fear of indebtedness, too high interest rates, unclear ownership - privatisation, other? Sedanje poslovno stanje podjetja: dobro, zadovoljivo, slabo? Assessment of the present business situation: good, sufficient, bad? Pričakovano poslovno stanje podjetja v naslednjih šestih mesecih: boljše, enako, slabše? Expected business situation in the next six months: better, same, worse? Pretežno lastništvo podjetja: zasebna domača last, zasebna tuja last, družbena lastnina, državna lastnina? Ownership of the company by majority: domestic private, foreign private, public/social, state? Investicijska vlaganja v osnovna sredstva bodo letos v primerjavi s preteklim letom: večja za ... %, približno enaka, manjša za ... %, ne načrtujemo investicij? Percentage change in investment this year on investment last year: higher by …%, about the same, lower by …%, no investment planned? Vpliv povpraševanja (izkoriščenost proizvodnih zmogljivosti in prodajna pričakovanja) na investicije letos in v naslednjem letu: zelo spodbudno, spodbudno, ne vpliva, omejevalno, zelo omejevalno? Influence of demand (the capacity utilisation rate and the sales prospects) on investment this year and next year: very stimulating, stimulating, no influence, limiting, very limiting? Vpliv razpoložljivosti finančnih virov in pričakovanega dobička na investicije letos in v naslednjem letu : zelo spodbudno, spodbudno, ne vplivata, omejevalno, zelo omejevalno? Influence of financial resources or expected profits on investment this year and next year: very stimulating, stimulating, no influence, limiting, very limiting? Vpliv tehničnih dejavnikov (tehnološki razvoj, razpoložljivost kvalificirane delovne sile in njihov odnos do novih tehnologij, tehnični pogoji za pridobitev investicijskih dovoljenj idr.) na investicije letos in v naslednjem letu: zelo spodbudno, spodbudno, ne vplivajo, omejevalno, zelo omejevalno? Influence of technical factors (technological developments, the availability of labour and its attitude towards new technologies, technical conditions for investment permits) on investment this year and next year: very stimulating, stimulating, no influence, limiting, very limiting? Vpliv drugih dejavnikov (davčna politika, možnost prenosa proizvodnje v tujino, ipd.) na investicije letos in v naslednjem letu: zelo spodbudno, spodbudno, ne vplivajo, omejevalno, zelo omejevalno? Influence of other factors (taxation, whether or not production can be transferred abroad) on investment this year and next year: very stimulating, stimulating, no influence, limiting, very limiting? Statistične informacije, št. 105/2006 6 Rapid Reports No 105/2006 KOMENTAR COMMENT Anketa o investicijah je del Ankete o poslovnih tendencah v predelovalnih dejavnostih. V njej sodelujejo poleg podjetij, ki so vključena v mesečno Anketo o poslovnih tendencah v predelovalnih dejavnostih, tudi podjetja, ki so po Standardni klasifikaciji dejavnosti uvrščena v dejavnosti rudarstvo in oskrba z elektriko, plinom in vodo. Omenjeno anketo izvajamo dvakrat na leto, in sicer marca ali aprila ter oktobra ali novembra. The Investment Survey is part of the Business Tendency Survey in Manufacturing. In addition to enterprises participating in the monthly Business Tendency Survey in Manufacturing, it also covers enterprises classified according to the Standard Classification of Activities into mining, and electricity, gas and water supply. The mentioned survey is carried out twice a year in March or April and in October or November. INVESTICIJE V OSNOVNA SREDSTVA FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION Napovedi v Anketi o investicijah, izvedeni v novembru 2005, so bile take: 94 % podjetij je ocenilo, da bodo v letu 2006 vlagali v osnovna sredstva, investicijska vlaganja pa naj bi bila v letu 2006 glede na leto 2005 v povprečju večja za 27 %. November 2005 expectations for 2006: 94% of enterprises anticipated that they would have fixed capital formation in 2006 and that compared to 2005 it would increase on average by 27%. V aprilu 2006 je v osnovna sredstva vlagalo 96 % podjetij. Tako je 31 % podjetij ocenilo, da so bila investicijska vlaganja v letu 2006 v primerjavi s predhodnim letom večja, 19 % pa, da so bila manjša. Po ocenah direktorjev so bila investicijska vlaganja glede na leto 2005 v povprečju večja za 19 %, kar je manj, kot je bilo pričakovano novembra 2005. In April 2006, 96% of enterprises had fixed capital formation. 31% of enterprises thought that compared to 2005 fixed capital formation increased, while 19% of enterprises thought that it decreased. On average, fixed capital formation in 2006 exceeded 2005 results by 19%, which is less than managers predicted in November 2005. Investicijska vlaganja v podjetjih so bila glede na velikostne razrede naslednja: v osnovna sredstva je vlagalo 98 % velikih podjetij, 95 % srednje velikih podjetij in 92 % malih podjetij. V povprečju so bila investicijska vlaganja glede na leto 2005 v velikih podjetjih večja za 7 %, v srednje velikih za 37 %, v malih pa za 20 %. As regards size classes of enterprises, 98% of large enterprises, 95% of medium-sized enterprises and 92% of small enterprises had fixed capital formation. On average, compared to 2005 fixed capital formation increased by 7% in large, by 37% in medium-sized and by 20% in small enterprises. POSLOVNO STANJE INDUSTRIJSKIH PODJETIJ BUSINESS SITUATION IN INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES Primerjava ravnotežja med sedanjim in pričakovanim poslovnim stanjem industrijskih podjetij je pokazala, da so pričakovanja direktorjev tudi tokrat optimistična. Precej več direktorjev je sedanje poslovno stanje ocenilo z dobro kot s slabo; 30 % direktorjev je to stanje ocenilo z dobro, 12 % pa s slabo. The comparison of the balance between the present and expected business situation in industrial enterprises showed that managers are optimistic in their expectations. More managers think that the present business situation is good than bad; 30% of managers evaluated the present business situation as good and 12% as bad. Ocena pričakovanega poslovnega stanja v naslednjih 6 mesecih je še naprej optimistična. Kar 39 % direktorjev je napovedalo boljše poslovno stanje in to je bila najvišja vrednost v celotnem opazovanjem obdobju, le 6 % pa slabše. The evaluation of the expected business situation in the next six months continues to be optimistic: a better business situation was predicted by 39% of managers and a worse by 6%. V velikih podjetjih je 33 % direktorjev ocenilo sedanje poslovno stanje kot dobro, 11 % direktorjev pa je sedanje poslovno stanje ocenilo kot slabo. V naslednjih 6 mesecih 36 % direktorjev pričakuje boljše poslovno stanje, 8 % pa slabše poslovno stanje. In large enterprises, 33% of managers estimated the present business situation as good and 11% as bad. In the next six months 36% of managers expect that the business situation will improve and only 8% expect that it will deteriorate. V srednje velikih podjetjih je 28 % direktorjev ocenilo sedanje poslovno stanje z dobro, 11 % pa s slabo. Pričakovanja za naslednjih 6 mesecev so ugodna, saj kar 43 % direktorjev pričakuje boljše poslovno stanje, le 4 % pa menijo, da bo to stanje slabše. In medium-sized enterprises, 28% of managers estimated the present business situation as good and 11% as bad. Expectations for the next six months are favourable since 43% of managers expect that the business situation will improve and 4% expect that it will deteriorate. V malih podjetjih je 25 % direktorjev ocenilo sedanje poslovno stanje z dobro, 18 % pa s slabo. V naslednjih 6 mesecih pa kar 41 % direktorjev pričakuje boljše poslovno stanje, le 4 % pa slabše. In small enterprises 25% of managers estimated the present business situation as good and 18% as bad. In the next six months 41% of managers expect that the business situation will improve and 4% expect that it will deteriorate. Statistično raziskovanje je sofinancirala Evropska komisija. Za objavljene podatke in besedila je odgovoren izključno Statistični urad Republike Slovenije in ne Evropska komisija. The business survey is co-financed by the European Commission. However, the European Commission accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever with regard to the material published in this publication. Sestavila / Prepared by: Brigita Vrabič Kek Izdaja, založba in tisk Statistični urad Republike Slovenije, Ljubljana, Vožarski pot 12 - Uporaba in objava podatkov dovoljena le z navedbo vira - Odgovarja generalna direktorica mag. Irena Križman - Urednica zbirke Statistične informacije Marina Urbas – Področna urednica Brigita Vrabič Kek - Slovensko besedilo jezikovno uredila Ivanka Zobec - Angleško besedilo jezikovno uredil Boris Panič - Naklada 90 izvodov - ISSN zbirke Statistične informacije 1408-192X - ISSN podzbirke Rudarstvo in predelovalne dejavnosti 1408-8908 - Informacije daje Informacijsko središče, tel.: (01) 241 51 04 - El. pošta: info.stat@gov.si - http://www.stat.si. Edited, published and printed by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, Ljubljana, Vožarski pot 12 - These data can be used provided the source is acknowledged - Director-General Irena Križman - Rapid Reports editor Marina Urbas – Subject-matter editor Brigita Vrabič Kek - Slovene language editor Ivanka Zobec - English language editor Boris Panič - Total print run 90 copies - ISSN of Rapid Reports 1408-192X - ISSN of subcollection Mining and manufacturing 1408-8908 - Information is given by the Information Centre of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, tel.: +386 1 241 51 04 - E-mail: info.stat@gov.si - http://www.stat.si.