Slovenian economic mirror November 2009, No. 11, Vol. XV Slovenian Economic Mirror ISSN 1318-3826 No. 11 / Vol. XV / 2009 Publisher: IMAD, Ljubljana, Gregorčičeva 27 Director: Boštjan Vasle, MSc Editor in Chief: Jure Brložnik, MA Jure Brložnik, MA, Matevž Hribernik (International Environment); Barbara Ferk, MSc, Janez Kušar, Ivo Lavrač, PhD, Jože Markič, PhD, Tina Nenadič, Jure Povšnar, Mojca Koprivnikar Šušteršič (Economic Developments in Slovenia); Saša Kovačič, Tomaž Kraigher, Ana T. Selan, MSc (Labour Market); Slavica Jurančič, Miha Trošt (Prices); Lejla Fajić, Jože Markič, PhD (Balance of Payments); Marjan Hafner (Financial Markets); Barbara Knapič Navarrete - Ministry of Finance*, Jasna Kondža (Public Finance); Mateja Kovač, MSc (Agricultural Output in 2008). Editorial Board: Lidija Apohal Vučkovič, Marijana Bednaš, MSc, Lejla Fajić, Alenka Kajzer, PhD, Rotija Kmet Zupančič, MSc, Janez Kušar, Boštjan Vasle, MSc *The opinions expressed in the text are personal to the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the institution where she is employed. Translator: Marija Kavčič Language Editor: Amidas d.o.o. Data Preparation and Graphs: Bibijana Cirman Naglič, Marjeta Žigman Concept and Design: Katja Korinšek, Pristop DTP: Bibijana Cirman Naglič Print: Tiskarna Present d.o.o. Circulation: 90 copies The contents of this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part provided that the source is acknowledged. Contents In the Spotlight................................................................................................................................................3 Current Economic Trends................................................................................................................................5 International Environment...............................................................................................................................................7 Economic Developments in Slovenia...............................................................................................................................................8 Labour Market.........................................................................................................................................................................................15 Prices..................................................................................................................................................................................19 Balance of Payments.......................................................................................................................................................21 Financial Markets...................................................................................................................................................................................23 Public Finance..........................................................................................................................................................................................26 Selected Topics..............................................................................................................................................29 Agricultural Output in 2008 ................................................................................................................................................................33 Statistical Appendix......................................................................................................................................35 Boxes Box 1: Economic Growth in the Third Quarter of 2009............................................................................................9 Box 2: Movements on the Real Estate Market..........................................................................................................12 Box 3: Labour Force Survey - the Third Quarter of 2009......................................................................................16 Box 4: Active Labour-market Policy Measures - Subsidising Self-employment.............................................16 Box 5: Minimum Wage and Minimum-wage Recipients........................................................................................18 Box 6: Net Inflows of Government Deposits to Banks and International Financial Transactions of the Banking Sector ...............................................................................................................................................................24 Box 7: State Budgets for 2010 and 2011...................................................................................................................28 On January 2008, the new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev.2, which replaced NACE Rev. 1.1, came into force in all EU Member States. In the Republic of Slovenia, the national version of the standard classification, SKD 2008, which includes the entire European classification of activities but also adds some national subclasses, came into force on the mentioned date. In the Slovenian Economic Mirror, all analyses are based on the SKD 2008, except when the previous SKD 2002 classification is explicitly referred to. More general information about the introduction of the new classification is available on the SORS website http://www.stat.si/eng/ skd nace 2008.asp. All seasonally adjusted data in the Economic Mirror are calculations by IMAD. Slovenian Economic Mirror, November 2009 3 In the Spotlight In the spotlight In the third quarter, the euro area posted economic growth after five consecutive quarters of decline, while indicators on the labour market continued to deteriorate. GDP growth in the euro area was 0.4%, but GDP remained significantly lower y-o-y (-4.1%). The structure of economic growth suggests that the recovery is still fairly uncertain, given that the largest contribution to growth came from changes in inventories. The available indicators for the last quarter this year nevertheless indicate further positive movements, while lending conditions will also start to improve gradually according to the ECB. The latest forecasts by international institutions for the coming year are thus increasingly optimistic. Despite the expected gradual recovery of the economy, the unemployment rate will also be rising next year, and in the euro area also in 2011. Economic activity continued to strengthen gradually in the third quarter in Slovenia, given that GDP increased by 1.0%, but its y-o-y drop (-8.3%) remained among the largest in the EU. GDP growth was largely propelled by stronger exports and export-oriented manufacturing activities, though both were still significantly below last year's level in y-o-y terms. Investment activity, on the other hand, remained weak due to low capacity utilisation and the crisis in construction. Private consumption was lower y-o-y for the third quarter in a row, and the change in inventories once again made a significant contribution to the y-o-y GDP decline. Government consumption was thus again the only consumption aggregate to be positive y-o-y. On the production side, the greatest contribution to the y-o-y GDP decline again came from manufacturing, even though manufacturing activity declined less than in the previous quarter. The crisis in construction is deepening. Among market services, a significant slowdown was posted for activity in financial intermediation, while value added increased again y-o-y in all public services. Labour market indicators continued to deteriorate in the third quarter, given that the number of employed persons declined further and that in November, the number of registered unemployed was more than half higher than last year. The decline in the number of employed persons in the third quarter (-0.9%, seasonally adjusted) was similar to that in the second, but the number was 3.1% lower than in the same period last year. According to the Labour Force Survey, the number of persons in employment dropped by 2.4 % in the third quarter relative to the same period last year. The survey unemployment rate increased as well (to 6.2%). The increase in the number of registered unemployed persons in November was smaller than in October. Altogether 95,446 persons are unemployed, 50.6% more than in November2008. The average wage per employee increased in September, but its growth halved y-o-y in the first nine months of the year, being notably faster in the public than in the private sector. The gross wage per employee increased by 1.3% in September and 2.4% y-o-y. September otherwise saw the first disbursements of subsidised wage compensations, but this did not affect the level of the average gross wage in the private sector, given the relatively low number of recipients and the statutory provision that compensation should not be lower than the minimum wage. Around 3% of employed persons receive the minimum wage in a gross amount of EUR 597.43, of whom as many as 80% work in activities generating below-average value added per employee. In the first nine months of 2009, the average gross wage in the private sector increased by 1.9% in nominal terms relative to the same period last year and in the public sector by 8.6%. In November, the y-o-y inflation rate increased (1.6%) as expected after fluctuating around zero for several months. As expected, price movements turned at the end of the year, as a result of the base effect in prices of liquid fuels that contributed to higher inflation in November. Prices of liquid fuels contributed 0.4 p.p. to the 0.9% increase, while one third of the monthly rise came from higher prices of utility services, which is also attributable to regulatory changes. In the third quarter, the current account of the balance of payments posted its second surplus in a row, but this time, the net outflow of international financial transactions was modest. The current account surplus narrowed (EUR 74.7 m) compared with the previous quarter, largely as a result of the trade balance turning from a surplus into a deficit. Net capital outflow was modest in the third quarter of this year (EUR 3.9 m), but totalled EUR 354.2 m in the nine months as a whole, having posted a high net inflow in the same period last year. Movements by sector have also changed compared with what was recorded last year, as this year the general government is borrowing abroad to finance the general government deficit and stimulus measures, while the private sector and the BS post a net capital outflow. Slovenian Economic Mirror, November 2009 3 In the Spotlight The lending activity of domestic banks remained very modest in October. Banks only recorded net lending in the amount of EUR 24.3 m. Household borrowing still accounts for the highest share of loans, while enterprises and NFI net repaid their loans for the second time in a row. Banks continue to repay loans to the rest of the world (EUR 2.2 bn in the first ten months this year), also using proceeds from government bonds that the government invested in banks deposits. At the same time, banks are also issuing state-guaranteed bonds and have thus obtained as much as EUR 2 bn this year; however, these assets have not yet contributed significantly to higher lending activity. The deficit of the consolidated balance of public financing continues to increase, totalling as much as EUR 1,161 m in the first eight months of the year. In the first eight months of2009, consolidated general government revenue declined by 6.5% from the same period last year, while expenditure increased by 10.0%. We saw the adoption of the state budgets for 2010 and 2011, which for the first time were prepared according to principles of results-oriented budgeting and according to which the state budget deficit will total 5.0% of GDP next year and 4.1% of GDP in 2011. current economic trends Slovenian Economic Mirror, November 2009 Current Economic Trends 7 International environment In the third quarter, the euro area recorded economic growth after five quarters of decline. Economic growth was positive in most of our main trading partners. GDP in the euro area increased by 0.4% in the third quarter (-0.2% in the second), according to Eurostat's first estimate; the y-o-y drop was lower, totalling 4.1% (-4.8% in the second quarter). According to data on the structure of growth for the entire euro area, the greatest contribution to growth came from a change in inventories (0.3 p.p.), with international trade contributing a further 0.2 p.p. and government consumption 0.1 p.p., while private consumption and investment continued to decline. In the third quarter, GDP growth was also positive in the US, where GDP increased by 0.9% (-0.2% in the second quarter), dropping 2.3% y-o-y. Short-term indicatorssuggest thatafter aslight improvement in economic activity in the euro area in the third quarter, Figure 1: Economic growth in certain main trading partners Germany France Italy Austria Source: Eurostat. the favourable developments will also continue in the last quarter of the year. The indicators of current and expected production in manufacturing improved in November for the eighth month in a row, while industrial production and new orders increased once again in September for the fifth consecutive month. The third quarter also saw stabilisation on European financial markets, given that banks' liquidity improved, according to the ECB, and their access to market financing increased. Lending conditions for enterprises thus loosened somewhat relative to the preceding months, and for the first time since the beginning of 2007 the share of banks planning to soften their lending conditions in the next three months was higher than the share of those intending to tighten them. The available data thus confirm the expectations of international institutions that the European economy is set to recover slightly in the second half of this year. Similar to other institutions, the OECD also significantly raised its forecasts for economic growth in November, projecting that GDP will increase by 0.9% in the euro area next year (up 0.9 p.p. from the forecast in April) and 2.5% in the US (up 1.6%). The ECB also revised upwards its forecast for economic growth: the new range of the forecast for economic growth in the euro area for 2010 is 0.6 p.p. higher than in September, 0.1%-1.5%, while at the same time, keeping this wide range also implies that the level of uncertainty remains high. The economic and financial crisis is also reflected in deterioration on the labour market. Even if the stimulus measures adopted by a number of countries at the beginning of the crisis have - along with certain already implemented structural reforms - mitigated the negative effects of the crisis on the labour market, they oftentimes only managedto postpone its adjustment.Unemployment in the euro area recorded its lowest level in March 2008 (7.2%), and the labour market only started to adjust more visibly in the first quarter of this year. Up to October, the unemployment rate in the euro area rose to 9.8%, with more than 4 million jobs lost in the period between the second quarter of 2008 and the second quarter of 2009. The situation on the labour market deteriorated most notably in the countries that were most severely affected 2 0 Table 1: IMAD assumptions and forecasts by international institutions for economic growth 2009 2010 2011 IMAD Sep 09 IMF Oct 09 EC Nov 09 CONS Nov 09 OECD Nov 09 IMAD Sep 09 IMF Oct 09 EC Nov 09 CONS Nov 09 OECD Nov 09 IMAD Sep 09 CONS Nov 09 EC Nov 09 OECD Nov 09 EMU -3.9 -4.2 -4.0 -3.8 -4.0 0.4 0.3 0.7 1.2 0.9 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.7 EU -4.2 -4.2 -4.1 -4.0 N/A 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 N/A 1.6 N/A 1.6 N/A DE -4.8 -5.3 -5.0 -4.9 -4.9 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.9 IT -5.2 -5.1 -4.7 -4.8 -4.8 -0.2 0.2 0.7 0.7 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.5 AT -3.5 -3.8 -3.7 -3.6 -3.8 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 N/A 1.5 2.2 FR -2.1 -2.4 -2.2 -2.1 -2.3 0.6 0.3 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.7 UK -4.7 -4.4 -4.6 -4.5 -4.7 -0.3 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.2 ZDA -2.8 -2.7 -2.5 -2.4 -2.5 0.9 1.5 2.2 2.7 2.5 3.0 3.1 2.0 2.8 Source: IMAD Autumn Forecast of EconomicTrends (September 2009). IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2009), European Commission Autumn Forecast (November 2009), Consensus Forecasts (November 2009), OECD Economic Outlook 2/2009 (November 2009). 8 Slovenian Economic Mirror, November 2009 Current Economic Trends by the crisis (Spain, Ireland and the Baltic states). Most vulnerable are workers without work experience and those with low educational levels, particularly men, given that they mainly work in the construction and industry sectors, which were hit hardest by the crisis. One of the countries with somewhat more favourable labour market movements is Germany, where the unemployment rate actually declined over the last five months, to 7.5% in October. This is largely a result of measures (particularly subsidies for shorter working hours) extended by the new government until the beginning of 2011. Amid a smaller decline in the number of employed persons than in production, EU countries saw a significant drop in labour productivity this year. A different situation was recorded in the US, where the unemployment rate has increased much more notably than the euro area average since the beginning of the crisis. It was up by more than 5 p.p. (to 10.2%) in the period from the beginning of last year to the end of October 2009. This is attributable to higher labour market flexibility, but also to the fact that the US has so far not adopted similar measures to preserve jobs as some countries in the EU. Unemployment will otherwise be growing further next year, both in the euro area and in the US; in the euro area it will also rise in 2011, when it will already start dropping in the US, according to OECD forecasts. Figure 2: Unemployment rate in certain main trading partners 12 ■ 2008 ■ 2009 ■ 2010 «2011 EMU Germany France Italy Austria US Source: OECD In November, oil prices reached their highest values this year, stabilising between USD 75 and USD 80. The average monthly price of Brent crude oil was up 5.3% to USD 76.7/ barrel in November. Oil prices in euros increased by 4.6% to EUR 52.1/barrel in November, and were 62.4% higher than the average of December 2008. The falling of the exchange rate of the US dollar against the euro slowed in November, but the exchange rate nevertheless exceeded the psychological threshold of USD 1.50 to EUR 1 in the last week of the month. The average exchange rate of the euro was USD 1.4914 to EUR 1 in November, up 0.7% from October 2009 and 10.9% from December 2008. The values of the British pound sterling, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc appreciated slightly against the euro (+1.8%, +0.7% and +0.2%, respectively). The value of the three-month EURIBOR remained at practically the same level in November as in the preceding two months, at 0.72% (down 2 basis points from October). Economic activity in Slovenia Activity improved in certain sectors in the third quarter of the year, while some sectors experienced an even deeper decline. The value of nominal merchandise exports and the volume of industrial production in manufacturing increased in September (as they did in August) according to seasonally adjusted data, and were therefore also higher in the third quarter as a whole. The value of construction put in place, however, posted a notable decline in September, resulting in an even deeper decline in the third quarter as a whole. The seasonally adjusted total real turnover in retail trade remained practically unchanged in September, which is also true for the turnover in the third quarter as a whole. Real turnover in wholesale trade posted a slight increase in September, but its decline in the third quarter was similar to that in the second. Real turnover in hotels and restaurants dropped in September, as it did in the preceding two months, and thus posted a slightly higher decline in the third quarter than in the second. The third quarter saw similar y-o-y declines as the second for merchandise exports, total real turnovers in retail trade and hotels and restaurants, while the y-o-y decline in the volume of production in manufacturing was smaller and the y-o-y declines in construction put in place and turnover in wholesale trade continued to Figure 3: Values of short-term indicators of economic activity in Slovenia -Merchandise exports (nom) -Industrial production in manufact. ---------Value of construction put in place -Turnover in trade —»—Turnover in wholesale ---------Tummrei" in h°tels and re^irante Sentiment indicator (right axis) 120 115 o 110 o 00 105 o o rf 100 tu ! 95 T) U tt 90 D T? £ 85 "rö S 80 \ H i \ "A i ;U V / X \ j v. V' - \ 12 8 4 0 -4 -8 -12 -16 . -20 S < z S < Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 8 6 4 16 2 0 75 70 65 Slovenian Economic Mirror, November 2009 9 Current Economic Trends increase. The sentiment indicator increased slightly in November, after declining in October, and was higher y-o-y for the first time this year. The value of merchandise trade increased in the third quarter, which is largely attributable to a slight economic recovery in Slovenia's main trading partners in the EU. According to seasonally adjusted data, merchandise exports increased slightly in September for the second Box 1: Economic growth in the third quarter of 2009 successive month (1.4%). Economic recovery in the EU impacted Slovenia's merchandise exports, which also increased somewhat in q-o-q terms (1.4%, seasonally adjusted). In the third quarter, merchandise exports recorded the smallest decline this year (-20.9%) after the significant y-o-y decline in the first half of the year. The y-o-y decline in exports to the EU was the smallest this year (-18.4%), while exports to non-EU countries had been dropping at an accelerated pace for the third quarter in a Figure 4: Expenditure structure of GDP growth Figure 5: Production structure of GDP growth 25 20 d 15 d .E 10 s£ % 5 0 S o c B -5 1 -10 C 15 20 25 30 Private consumption Gross fixed capital formation ■ Exports of goods and services -GDP real growth (right axis) Government consumption 3 Changes in invent.and valuables Imports of goods and services u 10 8 6 0 ^ _c -2 S 8 6 4 o >. 2 ro .5 0 ^ T £ -2 Qi -4 -6 -8 D Manufacturing ä Market services (G - K) I Other (A,B,C,E) I Construction (F) I Public services (L - P) ° Source: SORS. ayaoayaoa 5 5 Source: SORS. Note: see the list of acronyms. 4 2 -4 -6 -8 -10 10 -12 Slovenia's GDP increased by 1.0% in the third quarter of2009 compared with the previous quarter, meaning that the gradual strengthening of economic activity that had already been seen in the second quarter this year continued (0.6%). The quarterly GDP growth largely results from a gradual strengthening of exports and export-oriented activities in manufacturing, as already suggested by current data. However, owing to strong falls at the beginning of the crisis, manufacturing and exports still posted significantly lower activity in real terms (-16.4% and -16.3%, respectively) relative to the third quarter last year. With low capacity utilisation in manufacturing and the deepening crisis in construction, investment activity does not yet show visible signs of recovery - the decline in fixed capital formation in the third quarter was only slightly smaller (23.8%) than in the second. Exports also declined at a slower pace (-19.6%), mainly under the influence of increased manufacturing activity. Household consumption has already been lower y-o-y since the first quarter this year. In the third quarter, it fell by 2.1% in real terms, as the net wage bill declined due to a deeper drop in the number of the employed. Also in the third quarter, the only consumption aggregate to increase y-o-y growth was government consumption. Inventories again made a pronounced negative contribution to GDP growth. In the summer months, the greatest positive shifts were (as already suggested by current indicators) seen in manufacturing, where the y-o-y drop in activity was much smaller than in the previous quarter (-16.4%; -22.8% in the second quarter). Due to this sector's size, manufacturing still made the greatest contribution to the total value added decline. However, the crisis in construction is deepening, and the construction sector recorded a greater y-o-y activity decline (19.2%) compared with the previous quarter (-13.9% in the second quarter of 2009). Among market services, a significant slowdown was recorded for activity in financial intermediation, which only posted 1.5% growth in the third quarter (compared with as much as 8.0% in the previous quarter), while distributive trades saw a similar decline as in the previous quarter. Value added increased in real terms y-o-y in all public services; value added growth in public administration and education was similar to that in the previous quarter, while slowing notably in the health sector (from 4.3% to 0.7%). In the Autumn Forecast of Economic Trends 2008 we predicted the possibility of a gradual q-o-q recovery after strong drops in economic activity at the end of last and the beginning of this year. These expectations are corroborated by the most recent data, which are also consistent with IMAD's forecast of a 7.3% GDP drop in 2009. 10 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends row. Within the structure of exports according to the SITC, the greatest contribution to the decline in total exports according to the data for eight months came from road vehicle exports, whose decline otherwise slowed gradually in July and August. Only exports of electricity, telecommunication products and feeding stuffs increased in this period. Merchandise imports, which had been strengthening since June, dropped somewhat at the monthly level in September (-1.4%, seasonally adjusted), increasing by 3.1% in the third quarter as a whole. As with merchandise exports, merchandise imports also posted a smaller y-o-y drop in the third quarter (-29.1%) than in the second. Within the structure according to the SITC, in the first eight months of this year the greatest contribution to Figure 6: Growth of Slovenian merchandise exports and economic growth in the EU Figure 8: Trade in services -Exports of services - Imports of services 20 15 10 £ 5 ï o o> o ro IL £ -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 ■ Merchandise exports (left axis) ■ GDP in EU (right axis) a a Source: SORS, Eurostat. Figure 7: Geographic structure of merchandise export growth 20 15 si ci 10 ni -C ? or 5 la ni 0 mi o n ^ -5 o ot n -10 oi tu bi -15 tn o u -20 -25 EU non-member countries EU iQ rs m ^r ° a a a a a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. OJ rs m ^ a a a 20 # 15 f 10 O 0 c o -5 >- -10 -15 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. the y-o-y decline in imports came from lower imports of oil and oil derivatives, which is largely due to lower prices of crude oil and road vehicle imports. The y-o-y decline in services exports slowed in the third quarter, while the decline in services imports intensified. After falling significantly in the first half of this year, services exports saw a slower decline in the third quarter (-14.3%). The stabilisation was mainly due to exports of transport and travel services, which saw the lowest y-o-y decline this year. The falling of services imports intensified, largely due to lower imports of various business, professional and technical services, as well as construction services (such as construction and assembly services and investment works performed by foreigners). Table 2: Selected monthly indicators of economic activity in Slovenia in % 2008 IX 09/ VIII 09 IX 09/ IX 08 I-IX 09/ I-IX 08 Exports1 4.8 25.0 -20.4 -21.0 -goods 1.3 40.9 -20.6 -22.4 -services 21.6 -13.3 -19.6 -15.1 Imports1 6.4 17.2 -26.7 -27.1 -goods 5.7 23.3 -28.8 -29.4 -services 10.8 -9.2 -11.0 -11.1 Industrial production 2.5 3.02 -16.33 -20.33 -manufacturing 2.6 4.12 -16.63 -21.63 Construction -value of construction put in place 15.7 -10.42 -32.23 -21.23 Distributive trade - total turnover in retail trade 10.4 -0.12 -18.43 -13.93 Hotels and restaurants - turnover in hotels and restaurants -2.7 -2.32 -13.53 -10.83 Sources: BS, SORS; calculations by IMAD. Notes: 1balance of payments s 2seasonally adjusted ,3working-day adjusted data. 30 25 5 4 0 Slovenian Economic Mirror, November 2009 11 Current Economic Trends Figure 9: Manufacturing production volumes ■ Y-o-y -Seasonally adjusted, q-o-q a a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. The volume of production in manufacturing increased in the third quarter, after four consecutive quarters of decline. I n September, production activity increased for the second month in a row (4.1%, seasonally adjusted) and was also higher in the third quarter as a whole (4.1%, seasonally adjusted). The increase in the volume of production was propelled by turnover from sales on foreign markets, which was higher than in the previous quarter. Inventories declined for the second quarter in a row, being also lower y-o-y, while turnovers from sales on foreign markets and on the domestic market recorded smaller y-o-y declines than in the first six months of the year as a whole. The y-o-y drop in production activity in the third quarter was also smaller than in the first half of the year, to some extent also due to the low base effect. Also in the third quarter, Slovenia posted a greater production decline Figure 10: Production, employment and productivity in manufacturing according to export orientation IJan.-Jun. 2009 I Q32009 O-20 Employment Productivity ray ray O-ï O O O c X S S X m e e m e Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. E i oe Q -ï than the EU-27 (-19.2% in Slovenia compared with -14.3% in the EU, working-day adjusted). Amid less favourable movements on foreign markets than in the first half of the year, highly and mainly export-oriented industries posted a slower y-o-y production decline in the third quarter. On average, they posted 18.7% lower production y-o-y (24.2% in the first half of the year); looking at individual industries, a deeper production activity decline was only recorded for the mainly export-oriented manufacture of other machinery and equipment, which made the greatest contribution to the total production decline in the third quarter. Other sectors of highly and mainly export-oriented industries contributed less to the production decline, or as much as in the first half of the year. The contribution of the manufacture of transport equipment was much smaller, nearly one fifth of what it was in the first half of the year. This industry recorded a strong decline in the volume of production at the end of Figure 11: Indicators of expected business trends in manufacturing -Production -----Expected employment - Expected total demand - Selling price expectations Expected export order-book: 40 30 I 20 =§■ 10 a ynlla 0 I -10 e S -20 | -30 rot taci -40 id -50 -60 \ fK A * / yii V" \ A \ À 1 > \\ yji' \ X V/ 7 \ Source: SORS. Note: ^Difference between positive and negative answers, 1 last year and at the beginning of this year, but owing to the favourable impact of measures to boost sales abroad, its third-quarter decline was smaller (3.7%, 18.7% in the first half of the year) than in other industries. In contrast to highly and mainly export-oriented industries, industries that are mainly oriented to the domestic market saw their production volumes shrink in the third quarter by the same amount as in the first half of the year. At the same time, these industries also recorded the most notable labour productivity decline, which, in addition to lower activity, was also due to the movement of the number of employed persons, given that these industries recorded the smallest employment drop. In the third quarter, employment otherwise dropped more notably than in the first half of the year in all three industry groups arranged by export orientation. 0 -15 12 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends After the indicators of expectations ceased to improve in October, the prospects for the coming months improved somewhat again in November. Business optimism regarding future exports increased the most, which was also positively reflected in the indicator of expected total demand. However, the indicators measuring the current situation of export and total orders still indicate low demand. We estimate that the higher optimism regarding expected exports and total demand in the next three months also had a positive impact on the indicators of expected production and employment. The share of enterprises that expect employment to drop in the coming three months is still 17% higher than the share of those thinking that it will increase, which is much less than at the end of last year, when this share amounted to 53%. In the third quarter, construction activity dropped by 10%, being 25% lower than in the third quarter last year. The decline in construction activity deepened in September, according to seasonally adjusted data. The value of construction put in place dropped by 10.2% in September and was nearly a third lower than in the same month last year. Activity declined in all construction sectors, most notably in residential construction.1 Figure 12: Value of construction put in place - Construction - total ■ Residential buildings ■ Civil engineering works - Buildings - Total ■ Non-residential buildings 1 In interpreting the figure on the value of residential construction put in place, it should be noted that it excludes the activity of smaller enterprises, where, by our estimate, the main activity is the construction of buildings. 190 180 170 160 2 150 g 140 rN S 130 -£ 120 110 100 90 80 oggooggaoaaaoaa ć? ĆS ĆS ĆS Source: SORS; calculati ons by I MAD. The indicators of future activity in the construction sector suggest a further decline. In the first nine months of 2009, the value of new contracts was 22.6% lower than in the same period last year. In September, the stock of contracts was also 13.4% lower y-o-y. The latest data on issued building permits show a similar situation. The total floor area planned by issued building permits diminished further in the third quarter, being a fifth lower than in the same quarter of 2008. Box 2: Movements on the real estate market Figure 14: Movements of prices and transactions in second-hand flats -Prices-SORS -----Prices-SMARS ---Registered transactions-SMARS The number of market transactions in second-hand flats increased in the third quarter. According to provisional SMARS (Surveying and Mapping Authority of the RS) data on reported transactions in flats,2 the number of sold flats increased by as much as 18.0%, which is the first quarterly increase in two years. This number is otherwise still approximately 25% lower than in the same period last year and only 42% of the level recorded in the third quarter of 2007, when the number of transactions in flats was the highest. A higher number of transactions was also recorded for building plots, houses and commercial real estate, while transactions in agricultural and forest land continued to decline. According to SORS data, the number of transactions in new flats increased as well, exceeding the level of a year earlier, though it still totalled less than half of the record number of included transactions in the second quarter of 2007.3 Prices of second-hand flats dropped less than 1% in the third quarter, according to SMARS and SORS. Prices in Ljubljana and Maribor were higher, for the first time in a year, while prices in the rest of Slovenia continued to fall. In terms of real estate by type, prices of houses continued to drop, while prices of business premises and to a small extent also of building plots increased, according to SMARS. According to SORS data, the average prices of new flats also dropped, by nearly 4%. Prices of second-hand flats declined by more than 10% y-o-y, and prices of new flats by almost 18%. \ \ >v " \ \ \ \ \ \ V N. > \ \ \ \ V S y s y a a a a a a a a Source: SORS, SMARS; calculations by IMAD. 2 The delivery of half of the nuclear power plant's electricity production to Croatia pursuant to the contract was interrupted until 2003. 3 The SORS survey includes approximately one half of completed flats built for the market. See SORS: Quarterly price indices of new dwellings, Slovenia, 2007 - first quarter 2009, June 23, 2009, First Release. 13 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends Figure 13: Total floor area planned by issued building permits Non-residential buildings I Residential buildings 11 r-i l-S 11 r-i . . OOa°OOa^.OOO 5 a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. a a In the third quarter, electricity output increased again y-o-y; the y-o-y decline in consumption was slightly smaller, but still fairly high. In the third quarter, electricity output increased y-o-y (0.8%), while electricity consumption dropped (11.3%). In October, electricity output was 6.2% higher y-o-y and electricity consumption 10.5% lower. Half of October's y-o-y decline in electricity consumption is attributable to lower consumption in aluminium production, one fifth to lower consumption in steelworks and only three tenths to the decline in all other electricity consumption (including household consumption). Not including the contracted exports to Croatia of half of Figure 15: 10-month electricity output and consumption over the last 10 years4 Output in nuclear power plant (excluding exports to Croatia) Output in thermal power plants ^^m Output in hydroelectric power plants — Electricity consumption 11 10 9 8 7 I 6 > 5 4 3 2 1 0 the electricity generated by the nuclear power plant, Slovenia's net imports of electricity represented 1.6% of electricity consumption in October. In the first ten months, electricity output was slightly higher y-o-y (0.6%); electricity output in hydroelectric plants increased by one third, while falling by nearly a tenth in thermal power plants and in the nuclear power plant. Electricity consumption was 12.4% lower, dropping below the level of 2002. The surplus, which was net exported, accounted for 3.4% of electricity consumption if we first exclude the electricity exports to Croatia based on Croatia's stake in the nuclear power plant. Figure 16: Total turnover in retail trade - Total retail trade - Automotive fuel - Food, beverages, tobacco - Non-food 50 40 30 : 20 r 10 ! 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 V .J- \ Y 4 The delivery of half of the nuclear power plant's electricity production to Croatia pursuant to the contract was interrupted until 2003. 8S85&S358S358S3 5 a a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. In September, total real turnover in retail trade5 oremained roughly at the same level as in the previous month (seasonally adjusted), while in y-o-y terms, the real turnover decline in the third quarter remained high. The y-o-y turnover decline deepened further in all sectors in September, with the greatest decline (by a third) recorded in specialised stores selling automotive fuels. Turnover also declined y-o-y in all sectors in the third quarter as a whole; the decline deepened further in retail trade, specifically in specialised stores selling automotive fuels (by nearly one third), in the sale of food, beverages and tobacco (by more than 4%) and in the sale of non-food products (by a tenth). Among larger sectors in the sale of non-food products, stores selling furniture, household equipment, construction material and audio/video recordings, and specialised stores selling computer and telecommunication equipment, books, sports equipment and toys recorded the most notable turnover declines, while only specialised stores selling pharmaceutical, medicinal and cosmetic products generated turnover growth. Turnover in the sale of motor vehicles saw a somewhat slower decline in the third quarter, but was still nearly 25% lower y-o-y, mainly due to an almost 17% 5 In total retail trade, sale and repair of motor vehicles (47+45). 14 Slovenian Economic Mirror, November 2009 Current Economic Trends Figure 17: Tourist overnight stays and turnover in hotels and restaurants Turnover in hotels and restaurants -Overnight stays -total ----Overnight stays -domestic -Overnight stays -foreign 12 9 # 6 _c 13 rg ^ 0 o -3 i, jà / i i i \ \ v \ \ / \ d \/ / >1 \ k — \ \ / / V u 1 / \ \ i ■ V a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. lower number of new car registrations. In the first nine months, total turnover in retail trade dropped by more than 14% y-o-y. September and in the third quarter as a whole, y-o-y turnover declines in hotels and restaurants were most likely attributable to the non-tourist part of this sector (household spending on food and beverages in hotels and restaurants) and a different structure of tourists. Specifically, there was an increase in the number of overnight stays by domestic tourists (in the third quarter by more than one tenth), while the number of foreign tourists' overnight stays declined (by close to 5%). In the first nine months of this year, total real turnover was more than 10% lower y-o-y. In the third quarter, real household consumption was 2.1% lower than in the same period last year. This is otherwise a smaller decline than what was recorded in the previous quarter (-3.1%). In this quarter, consumers were somewhat more optimistic regarding the future economic situation, and the y-o-y decline in new passenger car registrations by natural persons was notably smaller than in the previous quarter (-7.2%; previously -22.9%). On the other hand, due to a nearly 4% decline in the number of employed persons, the net wage bill with regard to the month of payment was 5% lower y-o-y in real terms, for the first time since data have been available.6 Turnover in retail trade also dropped somewhat more notably (-14.4%) than in the previous quarter (-11.9%). Nominal turnover in wholesale trade ceased to drop in September (seasonally adjusted), but the turnover decline in the third quarter deepened y-o-y. The decline in nominal turnover in wholesale trade deepened further y-o-y in September. In the third quarter, turnover was thus more than 25% lower than in the third quarter last year, while in the first nine months as a whole, it was more than a fifth lower than in the same period last year. The decline in real turnover in hotels and restaurants deepened (seasonally adjusted) in September; in the third quarter, the real turnover decline remained high y-o-y. In Figure 18: Household consumption indicators Net wage bill (real terms) ^^^m Number of first passenger car registrations by natural persons* -----Turnover in retail trade (real terms)** -Household consumption (real terms) -Consumer conf dence indicator, original value (right axis) 0 18 15 12 # 9 ,h ? 6 or ra 3 I 0 -3 -12 -15 -3 -12 -15 -18 -21 -24 -27 -30 -33 a a a a Source: SORS, MI-IAAD. Note: *data from March 2006 onward. ** SCA 2008. Consumer optimism declined somewhat in October and November. Consumers' estimations regarding the right time to make major purchases were the worst in the last seven months, while the indicator regarding the right time for saving dropped to the lowest level in the last twelve months. Despite the lower optimism, natural persons registered 1.6% more new passenger cars in these two months than in the same period last year, and turnover in retail trade (-13.4%) in October dropped nearly 3 p.p. less than in the previous month. Figure 19: Business tendency -Economic sentiment -Retail trade -Service act. 40 Manufacturing Consumers Construction Source: SORS. 6 Since 2000. 12 15 Slovenian Economic Mirror, November 2009 15 Current Economic Trends The value of the sentiment indicator increased somewhat in November, after the October decline. The sentiment indicator mainly improved due to higher values of the confidence indicator in manufacturing and the consumer confidence indicator, and to a certain extent also the confidence indicator in construction, though its value remained notably lower than in other sectors. For the first time this year, the sentiment indicator was higher than in the same month last year, though still well below the long-term average. Labour market The number of people in formal employment remained almost unchanged in September. The number of employed persons increased slightly in September, but the seasonally adjusted growth rate remained negative (-0.4%). According to unadjusted data, the number of employed persons increased most notably in education (by 1,624), which is a seasonal phenomenon characteristic of September. A slight increase was also seen in professional, scientific and technical activities, which have also posted the highest rise in subsidised self-employment this year, and in other miscellaneous business activities and public administration, while declines were once again largest in manufacturing and construction. The decline in the number of persons employed in manufacturing and construction is also reflected in a lower number of work permits for foreigners (mainly employment and work permits) and a lower number of employed foreigners according to the Statistical Register of Employment. The former totalled a mere 81,075 in October (11,567 less than in March this year, when the number of issued permits for foreigners was highest), and the latter 63,556 in September.7 The number of vacancies, on the other hand, increased somewhat for seasonal reasons in October (to 15,653, which is a fifth less than in October last year), while the number of persons hired declined again (to 11,905) and remained a third lower than in October last year. The number of employed persons continues to drop y-o-y. In September, it was 3.6% lower than in September last year, dropping by 3.1% in the third quarter as a whole. In the third quarter, the number of employed persons again dropped most in manufacturing (by 25,601 or 11.5%), while notable declines were also seen in construction, Figure 20: Persons in employment by activity Q4 2008 Q1 2009 ■ Q2 2009 BQ3 2009 7 The difference between both categories is partly procedural in nature, but also one of substance. Specifically, a work permit issued by the Employment Service of Slovenia, is a condition for a foreigner to obtain a residence permit, which in turn is a condition for concluding an employment contract; based on the experience of the Employment Service of Slovenia, there may therefore be two to three months between the issuance of the work permit and the actual hiring. Furthermore, for different reasons, around 5% of those issued with work permits do not end up in actual employment. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the police, there have also been instances of abuse of Slovenian work permits for foreigners, which are the basis for obtaining a permit to reside in Slovenia, which enables a foreigner to travel or stay up to three months in other countries that are parties to the Schengen Agreement, where they then work, seek asylum or register with the competent authorities as job seekers. es cc Q LU Q s £ z lb u CL es CO < ers u aM tO Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. transport and distributive trades. Certain services saw an increase in the number of employed, most notably, professional, scientific and technical activities, education, and health and social work. In the third quarter, the quarterly decline in employment was similar (-0.8%) to that seen in the second quarter (-0.9%). In October, the number of registered unemployed increased significantly, both for seasonal reasons and as a result of economic trends. It climbed to a high of 94,591, which is 6,255 persons or 7.0% more than in September and as much as 51.1% more than in October last year. First-time job seekers who have finished school typically register as unemployed in the autumn. While diminishing in recent years, their number did increase significantly this year (to 5,877, which is 1,301 more than in October last year), with secondary-school graduates representing three quarters of this inflow. Moreover, the number of Figure 22: Components of registered unemployment ^^B New first-time job-seekers ^^B Lost work ^^B Unemployed persons who found work ^^B Other outflows from unemployment (net) -CHANGE Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 16 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends Box 3: Labour force survey 2009 the third quarter of The number of persons in employment according to the Labour Force Survey has also declined y-o-y. In the third quarter of 2009, it was 2.4% lower than in the same quarter last year, but 0.4% higher compared with the second quarter this year (seasonally adjusted). While the number of persons in formal employment continued to decline in the third quarter, the number of people in informal employment increased again, probably due to seasonal work in agriculture. The third quarter also saw a higher number of unemployed persons according to the Labour Force Survey. It was 8,000 higher than in the previous quarter (13.8%) and 22,000 (around 50%) higher than in the same quarter last year. The survey unemployment rate increased as well, to 6.2% (6.4%, seasonally adjusted), which is 0.6 p.p. more than in the previous quarter and 2.1 p.p. more than in the same quarter last year. Figure 21: Unemployment rates - registered and according to the Labour Force Survey ■Reg. -TOTAL - LFS-TOTAL - Reg. -men ■ LFS - men ----Reg. -women ----LFS -women a a a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. unemployed persons also increased in October due to a higher inflow of persons who lost work and a lower number of unemployed finding work. The former totalled 8,537 (1,349 more than in September) and the later 4,360 (1,186 less than in September). Almost a quarter of those who lost work became unemployed as a result of bankruptcy (Mura). The outflows from unemployment for reasons other than employment8 were higher than in previous months, mainly due to a high enrolment of unemployed people in training programmes for the unemployed in the school year 2009/2010 (approximately 80% higher than last year). After remaining unchanged in September (9.4%), the registered unemployment rate is expected to 8 Together with the net transfers between registers, there were 3,829 such deletions, 34.4% more than in September this year and 58.3% more than increase once again in October due to the significantly higher number of unemployed people. The number of registered unemployed increased in November, by 855 to 95,446. Figure 23: Nominal gross wage per employee -Total -Private sector -----Public sector A I 1 O; r / a a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. Box 4: Active labour-market subsidising self-employment policy measures - in October last year. The number taking up subsidies for the unemployed entering self-employment increased significantly this year. Along with other active labour-policy measures, this measure provided work to one third of the unemployed who found jobs. Subsidies have otherwise been the most frequently used active labour-market policy measure aimed at promoting employment and self-employment for several years. In the first ten months of 2009, 4,101 unemployed persons received subsidies for self-employment (1,599 in the entire year of 2008, and 417 in 2007), while 5,339 unemployed persons became self-employed (13.4% of all the unemployed who found work in this period). Broken down by activity, the number of people who became self-employed was highest in professional, scientific and technical activities, followed by construction and distributive trades. In addition to this programme, by October, numerically important results in terms of promoting employment were also delivered by the programme that provided full-time employment for 2,138 people with lower employability prospects and the programme promoting short-time employment, which helped 1,057 unemployed people to find work. Together with some numerically less important programmes and public work schemes that created jobs for 4,059 unemployed persons up to October this year, 12,729 unemployed people found work through active labour-market policy programmes in the first ten months of this year. This is nearly a third of the unemployed people who landed work in that period (15.0% of the average number of the unemployed). Last year, this share was approximately one half lower. 14 10 8 6 4 2 0 3 17 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends Table 3: Labour market indicators Figure 24: Gross wages in the private sector in % 2008 IX 09/ VIII 08 IX 09/ IX 08 I-IX 09/ I-IX 08 Labour force -0.6 0.1 -0.3 0.5 Persons in formal employment 3.1 0.0 -3.6 -1.8 - Employed in in enterprises and organisations and by those self-employed 3.1 0.0 -4.3 -2.2 Registered unemployed 11.4 0.3 49.0 32.3 Average nominal gross wage 8.3 1.3 2.4 4.1 - private sector 7.8 1.9 1.8 1.9 - public sector 9.8 -0.3 2.3 8.6 2008 IX 09 VIII 09 IX 09 Rate of registered unemployment, in % 6.7 6.3 9.4 9.4 Average nominal gross wage (in EUR) 1,391.43 1,400.21 1,415.08 1,433.93 Private sector (in EUR) 1,315.49 1,311.04 1,310.16 1,334.94 Public sector (in EUR) 1,642.58 1,696.74 1,739.82 1,735.15 Sources: ESS, SORS; calculations by IMAD. The average wage per employee increased in September, while in the first nine months of the year its growth halved relative to the same period last year, being notably faster in the public than in the private sector. September's growth of the average gross wage per employee was 1.3% in nominal terms, strengthening to 2.4% y-o-y and totalling 2.3% in the third quarter as a whole, 7.6 p.p. less than in the same period last year. In the private sector, the average wage per employee increased with stronger pace at the monthly and y-o-y levels in September; y-o-y growth had otherwise been slowing for the fifth quarter in a row. The average gross wage increased in September (1.9%) in almost all private sector activities, which we partly attribute to there being one working day more, but probably also to a further decline in the number of the employed. The number of low-skilled workers with low wages declined, in particular, which raises the gross wage per employee across the sector. At the y-o-y level, growth was slightly stronger (though it has been lowering since the third quarter last year) and totalled 1.5% in the third quarter this year (compared with 9.3% in the same period last year). September saw disbursement of the first subsidised wage compensations,9 which did not affect the level of the average gross wage in the private sector, given the low number of recipients and the statutory provision that the compensation should not be lower than the minimum wage. Altogether 9,235 employees were eligible for these first compensations, 9 According to the Partial Reimbursement of Payment Compensation Act, which took effect this June, employers facing a decline in business operations can put workers on temporary layoff (waiting for work), with part of the burden also borne by the state. While waiting for work, workers are entitled to 85% of their average monthly earnings for full working time in the last three months. The burden of this compensation is borne by the employer (35%) and the state (50%). - Industrija in gradbeništvo (B-F) Production services (G-I) ■ Business services (J-N;S) a a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. out of the total number of workers (14,406) according to the contracts concluded between employers and the ESS by the end of November. This number is significantly lower than the total number of employees (64,000) included in the subsidy scheme for shorter working hours. The number of enterprises that applied for reimbursement of wage compensations was highest in manufacturing (a total of 82.6% of all recipients). Workers in five manufacturing sectors alone account for nearly 70% of all recipients.10 The disbursement of the first wage compensations did not impact the level of the average private sector wage, because the Act ensures compensations in the amount of the minimum wage and a high number of employees Figure 25: Gross wages in the public sector 25 ■ Public administration - Education - Human health and social work act. ■ Arts, entertainment, recreation a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. 10 The manufacture of electrical appliances, the manufacture of metal products, the manufacture of other machinery, the manufacture of furniture and the manufacture of metals. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 0 20 10 5 0 18 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends Box 5: Minimum wage and minimum-wage recipients The minimum wage in Slovenia is determined by law (as in most EU countries) as the lowest amount that is received by a person in paid employment for working full time. It is adjusted once a year, by the expected y-o-y consumer price rise, which is adopted by the government as a basis for the preparation of the national budget. Currently, the gross wage amounts to 597.43 EUR per month, accounting for 45.0% of the average gross wage in the private sector in this year as a whole. Last year, the ratio was somewhat lower (43.5%). Among the 12 EU countries for which data are available, Slovenia is in the third of countries with the highest figure for this ratio. The number of minimum-wage recipients11 by legal persons12 hovers around 20,000 in Slovenia, which is approximately 3% of all the employed receiving wages. The majority of minimum-wage recipients are in the private sector (their share has increased even more notably in recent years, totalling 97.2% over the first nine months as a whole). In the first nine months as a whole, 80.0% of all minimum-wage recipients were employed in four activities (manufacturing, other miscellaneous business activities, construction and trade); more than a third in manufacturing (36.5%), slightly over a fifth in other miscellaneous business activities (20.8%, and within that, the bulk in services to buildings and landscape activities). The other miscellaneous business services category has the highest share of minimum-wage recipients, with a high of 20.7% of all employees receiving the minimum wage. The shares of minimum-wage recipients also exceeded 5% in other activities (7.2%), construction (5.6%) and hotels and restaurants (5.5%). Last year, nearly four fifths of all minimum-wage recipients worked in activities generating below-average value added per employee, compared with only slightly over 15% in activities with more than average value added. Table 4: Number of minimum-wage recipients, value added per employee and labour costs in value added, Slovenia 2008 Activities by value added per employee Value added per employee, in EUR No, of minimum-wage recipients N Administrative and support service activities 18,132 4,350 I Accommodation and food service activities 24,068 1,015 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 26,985 72 F Construction 27,685 3,260 C Manufacturing 32,003 6,911 H Transportaton and storage 35,153 792 E Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 35,927 53 G Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motor cycles 37,698 2,175 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 42,331 753 B Mining 44,147 9 J Information and communication activities 63,823 124 L Real estate activities 76,395 132 D Electricity, gas and steam supply 82,690 4 Companies, total 21,088 Source: AJPES, IMAD Working Paper No, 9/2009. 11 To monitor the number of wage recipients, two sources of data are available: one provides data per month (AJPES) and the other per year (SORS - Persons in paid employment by amount of gross earnings; for September 2008). As the number of recipients fluctuates from month to month, our analysis is based on the AJPES average for this or last year. 12 Not-including sole proprietors and their employees, own-account workers and farmers. joining the scheme were already receiving the minimum wage or a wage that is only slightly above the minimum wage; moreover, the number of employees included in the scheme is rather low.13 The average wage in the public sector dropped in September. Its y-o-y growth strengthened slightly, but it had already been slowing for three quarters in a row and is significantly lower than at the beginning of the year. The average gross wage in the public sector declined slightly14 in September (-0.3%); its growth otherwise strengthened y-o-y, totalling 2.8% in the third quarter as a whole, which is 8.9 p.p. less than in the same period last year. The wage growth in the public sector has been slowing y-o-y for three quarters in a row and will also slow in the immediate future; in 2009 as a whole, it was nonetheless much faster than growth in the private sector; the highest growth is still recorded in health and social work, and the lowest in education. 13 In manufacturing, the share of employees who qualified for wage compensations was below 5% in September. 14 Most notably in health and social work (-1.9%), followed by arts, entertainment and recreation (-1.3%), while it stagnated in public administration (-0.1%) and increased in education. 19 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends Prices After fluctuating around the zero rate for several months, y-o-y inflation increased as expected in November (1.6%). After inflation had declined steadily from its high levels of mid-2008 and even turned negative y-o-y in July, it hovered around the zero rate in the period from August to October. In previous months, we predicted that price movements would turn at the end of this year, largely due to the base effect in prices of liquid fuels. The y-o-y negative contribution of prices of liquid fuels for transport and heating to inflation has been decreasing since August, and turned positive in November. Assuming that oil prices will remain at the present level of USD 75-80 per barrel next year, we can expect the contribution of oil prices to y-o-y inflation to remain positive through to July next year, reaching the highest level in the last quarter of this year. In addition to the prices of liquid fuels, which contributed 0.4 p.p. to the 0.9% rise of consumer prices in November, inflation was also significantly affected by the higher prices of utility services,15 which contributed 0.3 p.p. We had already been warning that these prices may rise significantly following the change in their regulation in August 2009, when the responsibility for setting municipal service prices was transferred from the government level to local communities. Given that these price changes are no longer part of the Administered Prices Rise Plan, their movement is less predictable. Due to higher prices of liquid fuels, y-o-y consumer price growth increased in November, while the decline in prices of other goods (durables and semi-durables) deepened and services price growth continued to slow. According to the available data, November's increases in y-o-y and monthly inflation were largely driven by two factors previously Figure 26: Group's contribution to the y-o-y inflation change Figure 27: Movement of the overall price level, prices of goods and services ■ inflation a a a Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. ---Semi-durable goods ---Services • Durable goods - Non-durable goods 12 10 8 6 -C s or 4 rg la 2 er -o- 0 -2 -4 / / 1 V/ \\r M / », ! 7V- j vq Y\ / ' 1 1 / V / \ > \ A 1 t--y i-i u u v.. i Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD. mentioned rather than a general price increase in several groups, which is to be expected, given the current level of economic activity. In November, only consumer prices posted higher growth than in October, contributing 1.7 p.p. to 1.6% y-o-y price growth (and within that, excise duties 1.2 p.p.). Prices of semi-durables, which are affected to the greatest extent by the movement of clothing and footwear prices, dropped somewhat more notably y-o-y than in October, which contributed -0.2 p.p. to November's Figure 28: Y-o-y inflation in Slovenia and in the whole euro area -Slovenia _ C, ■ r« / J 15 Prices of water supply increased in Ljubljana, which was reflected in a total utility price increase of 11.9%. Source: SORS, Eurostat. inflation. The decline in the prices of durables, which is greatly underpinned by the falling of prices for passenger cars, was also higher than in October (with these prices contributing -0.5 p.p. to inflation). Growth in prices of services, which has been persisting around 2% in recent 8 7 5 8 5 4 6 3 4 2 2 0 -1 0 -2 20 Slovenian Economic Mirror, November 2009 Current Economic Trends Table 5: Prices in % 2008 2009 XII 2008/ XII 2007 ® (I 08-XII 08)/ ® (I 07-XII 07) X 09/ IX 09 X 09/ X 08 ® (XI 08-X 09)/ ® (XI 06-X 07) Consumer prices (CPI) 2.1 5.7 0.1 0.0 1.0 Goods 1.3 6 0.5 -0.9 0.1 - Fuel and energy -7.2 10.6 -1.1 -2.9 -5.8 - Other 3.2 5 0.8 -0.5 1.2 Services 3.8 5 -0.8 2.0 3.0 Consumer prices (HICP) 1.8 5.5 0.1 0.2 0.9 Administered prices1 -7.8 9.6 -1.3 -5.3 -6.5 - Energy -11.9 14.4 -2.2 -10.2 -11.5 - Other 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.6 1.6 Core inflation - trimmean2 2.7 2.6 0.0 0.9 1.5 - excluding (fresh) food & energy 3.9 4.6 0.2 0.7 2.4 Consumer prices in the EMU 1.6 3.3 0.2 -0.1 0.5 Producer prices of domestic manufacturers - domestic market 3.1 5.6 0.1 -1.4 0.4 - EMU -0.1 2.1 -0.2 -3.9 -3.0 Sources: SORS. Eurostat. calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 due to annual changes of the administered price index. figures are not directly comparable across years.2The measure of core inflation ("Trimm mean") is optimised on monthly basis, hence some minor revisions of historical data are possible. months, is abating at the slowest pace, and contributed 0.6 p.p. to y-o-y inflation. In November, prices also increased in the euro area, according to Eurostat's first estimates. Y-o-y inflation increased from -0.1% in October to 0.6%, which is probably mainly due to the base effect or the high drop in oil prices last year. The y-o-y decline in producer prices of manufactured goods on the domestic market is slowly diminishing. Figure 29: Y-o-y growth of domestic producer prices of manufactured goods -PPI (domestic market) .........EL., GAS, STEAM, AIR COND. SUPPLY ----MANUFACTURING -Mfr. of basic metals, fabricated metal prod., except machin. and equipm. Source: SORS. Deflationary pressures were also easing in price groups that have the greatest effect on total y-o-y deflation in October, according to the available data. Amid a 0.2% increase in producer prices of manufactured goods on the domestic market in October, the y-o-y price decline was 0.2 p.p. smaller (-1.4%); in manufacturing 0.3 p.p smaller (-2.9%). In the food and beverage manufacturing sector, the y-o-y price decline has been hovering around -3.7% in recent months, while in the manufacture of metals and metal products it is slowing. After totalling -15.5% in August, the y-o-y decline diminished to around -11% in October. Total price growth is still propelled by the increase in electricity prices, amounting to 5.9% y-o-y. After a gradual deterioration in the first half of the year, the price competitiveness of Slovenia's economy improved in the third quarter, but Slovenia remained among the euro area countries where price competitiveness was lowest. The real effective exchange rate as measured by relative consumer prices appreciated only slightly after a two-month decline, so that price competitiveness also improved relative to the second quarter of the year (by 0.6%). In the third quarter, and in the first nine months as a whole, it was just above the level of a year before (0.2% higher), with similar dynamics to those last year. This year's relatively stable price competitiveness movements are, on the one hand, due to consumer price growth stabilising at similar levels as in Slovenia's trading partners, and on the other, to the relatively stable nominal effective exchange rate. In the first nine months, the movement of price competitiveness of Slovenia's economy was still relatively less favourable than in other euro area countries, most of Slovenian Economic Mirror, November 2009 21 Current Economic Trends Figure 30: Nominal and real effective exchange rates ■ Nominal effective exchange rate ■ Real, deflated by CPI Real, deflated by PPI 114 112 110 108 106 104 102 dIn100 98 96 94 92 Source: ECB, SORS, OECD; calculations by IMAD. Figure 31: Real effective exchange rates of euro area members deflated by HICP, in the first nine months of 2009 I Nominal effective exchange rate Relative CPI I Real effective exchange rate I]u_i:i.ûcûLû — < g z u ^ ^ Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD. which saw the real effective exchange rate deflated by an HICP drop. The price competitiveness of manufacturing also improved in the third quarter, but remained significantly lower than a year before. The movement of producer prices in Slovenia tends to adjust to movements in its trading partners with a lag, which is why the price competitiveness of Slovenia's manufacturing is improving this year compared with the end of last year. With the y-o-y decline in producer prices still being much smaller in Slovenia than in its trading partners, the real effective exchange rate deflated by relative producer price rises increased y-o-y (by 3.7% in the third quarter, by 3.4% in the first nine months as a whole). Balance of payments The current account of the balance of payments recorded a surplus for the second quarter in a row, though a somewhat lower one than in the previous quarter, while last year saw a deficit throughout the year. The surplus narrowed in the third quarter compared with that in the second (from EUR 190.1 m to EUR 74.7 m), mainly as a result of the trade balance turning from a surplus into a deficit. Despite the merchandise deficit in the third quarter, the balance of current transactions recorded a slight surplus in the first nine months this year, in the amount of EUR 59.0 m, having posted a deficit of EUR 1,553.1 m in the same period last year. Figure 32: Components of the current account balance ■ Trade balance I Factor incomes -Current account Services balance Current transfers a Source: BS. Figure 33: Contributions of quantity and price factors to merchandise trade balance a o a a a o a a Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD. 8 0 22 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends Table 6: Balance of payments I-IX 09, EUR m Inflows Outflows Balance1 Balance, I-IX 08 Current account 16,512.4 16,453.5 59.0 -1,553.1 - Trade balance (FOB) 11,998.1 12,264.5 -266.4 -1,907.5 - Services 3,251.2 2,255.0 996.1 1,295.1 - Income 744.8 1,258.8 -513.9 -802.9 Current transfers 518.3 675.2 -156.8 -137.7 Capital and financial account 1,351.3 -1,527.2 -176.0 1,807.3 - Capital account 161.1 -129.9 31.1 -13.1 - Capital transfers 159.8 -123.6 36.1 -11.3 - Non-produced, non-financial assets 1.3 -6.3 -5.1 -1.8 - Financial account 1,190.2 -1,397.3 -207.1 1,820.4 - Direct investment -2.2 -522.5 -524.7 100.3 - Portfolio investment 4,435.3 -87.6 4,347.7 -681.9 - Financial derivates -22.2 28.5 6.2 39.9 - Other investment -3,367.8 -815.7 -4,183.4 2,362.3 - Assets 189.5 -815.7 -626.1 -777.6 - Liabilities -3,557.3 0.0 -3,557.3 3,139.9 -Reserve assets 147.1 0.0 147.1 -0.2 Net errors and omissions 117.0 0.0 117.0 -254.3 Sources: BS. Note: 'a minus sign (-) in the balance indicates a surplus of imports over exports in the current account and a rise in assets in the capital and financial account and the central bank's international reserves. The nominal balance of merchandise trade'6 has this year been significantly affected by price factors, as well as quantity factors, while the y-o-y decline in the surplus of the services balance was largely underpinned by a lower surplus in trade of transport and travel services. In the third quarter, the balance of merchandise trade recorded a deficit (EUR 145.1 m), in contrast to the surplus in the second, but this deficit was much lower y-o-y than in the third quarter last year (EUR 750.7 m). Reflecting a better economic situation in the EU and higher industrial production in Slovenia, the decline in merchandise trade slowed, in exports somewhat more (-20.9%) than in imports (-29.1%). In the first nine months of 2009, the merchandise deficit (EUR 266.4 m) was much lower than in the same period last year (EUR 1,907.5 m), which was, in addition to a larger real decline in imports than exports, also due to a pronounced improvement in terms of trade. After narrowing in the last quarter of 2008 and in the first quarter this year, the surplus in the services balance (EUR 415.0 m) increased in the last two quarters. In the third quarter, the increase was also due to seasonal factors, but the surplus was still lower in the first nine months of 2009 than in the same period last year (EUR 996.1 m compared with EUR 1,295.1 m). This is mainly the result of a lower trade surplus in road and railway transport services, and travel services, and to a smaller extent also to a higher trade deficit in communication, computer and information services, and licenses, patents and copyrights. Imports of these services are still increasing, despite the economic crisis. 16 The merchandise trade balance tends to move counter-cyclically, as it deteriorates in a period of favourable economic trends and improves in a recession. The deficit in the balance of factor incomes is mainly declining as a result of net interest payments to the rest of the world, while the balance of current transfers posted a deficit, with the net deficit recorded by the state budget against the EU budget. In the second and third quarters, the deficit in factor incomes remained at about the same level, around EUR 150 m, which is a significantly lower figure than in the same period last year (EUR 394.0 m). To a lesser extent, this was due to the higher surplus in labour income, which is partly a consequence of foreign workers in Slovenian enterprises losing employment (and consequently income), and to the greatest extent to a lower deficit in capital income. Amid the falling interest rates, net interest repayments on foreign loans are declining more than net interest receipts from investment in debt securities. After the surplus in the previous quarter, which was mainly due to increased absorption from the EU budget, the balance of current transfers recorded a deficit in the third quarter, given the net deficit recorded by the state budget against the EU budget (EUR 2.6 m). The state budget otherwise posted a modest surplus (EUR 1.3 m) against the EU budget in the first nine months of this year. International financial transactions (excluding international monetary reserves and net errors and omissions) posted a net capital outflow in the third quarter, for the third quarter in a row. After declining in the first quarter of the year, external liabilities and assets strengthened in the second and third quarters. The net capital outflow in the third quarter of this year was modest (EUR 3.9 m), but the total for the nine months Slovenian Economic Mirror, November 2009 23 Current Economic Trends Figure 34: Financial transactions of the balance of payments by sector Private sector I BS I Government - Net financial flow I 0 as a whole was EUR 354.2 m. International financial transactions recorded a high net inflow of EUR 1,820.6 m in the first nine months of the year. This year, the general government is borrowing abroad to finance general government deficit and stimulus measures. The private sector and the BS posted a net capital outflow, which was higher than the net capital inflow to the general government for the nine months as a whole. In the first nine months of the year, the net capital outflow of the private sector was mainly due to domestic commercial banks repaying EUR 2.7 bn in loans, while the net inflow to the general government mainly resulted from the issue of bonds. This year, the bulk of private sector flows has come from net repayments of foreign loans, totalling EUR 2.2 bn, while EUR 0.5 bn has come from the net outflow of deposits. The government issued three- and five-year benchmark bonds, in the amount of EUR 1 bn and EUR 1.5 bn, respectively, as early as in February and April, with respective interest rates of 4.25% and 4.375%, which were mainly bought by banks and investment funds. In the third quarter, the net capital inflow to the general government sector increased again, to EUR 1,380.6 m, almost the same figure as in the first half of the year as a whole. In September, the government also issued a 15- year benchmark bond in the amount of EUR 1.5 bn, with a 4.625% interest rate (see Box 6). Net assets of the Bank of Slovenia were the most volatile of all capital flows and increased in the third quarter after declining in the first half of the year. The BS reduced its external assets and liabilities in the first quarter this year, as it was selling money market instruments, while transferring part of its deposits from abroad to the account of the net TARGET position.17 In the second quarter, its liabilities to the net TARGET position increased, while they declined significantly in the third (by EUR 745.0 m). Among external assets, the BS mainly increased investment in foreign debt securities. As a result of measures to mitigate the financial and economic crisis, the net external general government debt has increased, while the net external debt of the private sector has declined. Slovenia's gross external debt amounted to EUR 40.1 bn at the end of September (111.9 % of estimated GDP) and gross external claims in debt instruments to EUR 30.2 bn (84.2 % of GDP). In nominal terms, net external debt, which totalled EUR 9.9 bn at the end of this September, remained at the same level as at the end of 2008, while rising by 1.2 p.p. in relative terms, to 27.7% of estimated GDP. The net external debt of the general government increased by 76.4% to EUR 5.9 bn in the first nine months this year, while the net external debt of the private sector, particularly that of commercial banks, dropped significantly in the same period. Commercial banks increased claims and reduced debt, and thus posted a net external debt of EUR 7.6 bn at the end of September, which is EUR 1.2 bn less than at the end of last year. Financial markets The volume of bank loans to domestic non-banking sectors recorded minimum growth in October. Banks recorded net lending in the amount of EUR 24.3 m in October, the lowest figure in the last four months. Household borrowing still accounts for the highest share, while enterprises and NFI net repaid their loans for the second time in a row. Banks also continue to repay foreign loans. In September, a second bank had already managed to issue state-guaranteed bonds. Lending activity remains modest, notwithstanding these long-term sources. Figure 35: Net flows and growth of domestic bank loans to domestic non-banking sectors I Households (left axis) I Government (left axis) - Enterprises&NFI (right axis) Enterprises&NFI (left axis) Households (right axis) Total (right axis) 40 35 c 400 oi lmi 300 cc m 200 100 0 -100 -200 17 Real-time gross settlement system through the Eurosystem, used for the settlement of central bank operations, transfers of large-value interbank funds and other euro payments. 30 25 20 * S 15 or g 10 y-o- 5 0 -5 -10 Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD. 2000 1500 1000 Source: BS 24 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends Box 6: Net inflows of government deposits to banks and international financial transactions of the banking sector The government issued EUR 4.0 bn in bonds in the first nine months of this year and invested a significant portion of the proceeds in bank deposits; government deposits thus recorded a net inflow of EUR 2.7 bn in this period. According to BS data, the bulk of these funds were not redirected towards strengthening of the lending activity of banks. Banks largely moved these funds abroad, given the high net outflows of bank assets abroad recorded in the months of issuance of bonds. Banks spent the bulk of funds (EUR 2.2 bn) to repay part of the foreign loans which had been the main source of banks' lending activity in previous years. Domestic banks recorded net borrowing abroad in the amount of EUR 9.2 bn in the period from Slovenia's accession to the EU to the end of 2008. Foreign deposits played a somewhat smaller role. Similar to loans, foreign deposits also saw net outflows this year, albeit only at a level of EUR 0.5 bn. By our estimate, banks deposited part of the surplus short-term liquidity resulting from high net inflows of government deposits in foreign banks to create reserves for needs related to the net repayment of foreign loans and deposits, while a smaller part of assets was invested in foreign securities. This type of investment nevertheless recorded net outflows of nearly EUR 225 m in the first nine months, as a result of lower investment in bonds and notes, while banks strengthened investment in money market instruments with shorter maturities. The latter is most probably also related to the reconciliation of the maturity structure of the banking sector's balance sheets. Figure 37: Net inflows of government deposits to banks .-. ,, , ^ ^ ,. , ^ ^ and international financial transactions in the banking Figure 36: International financial transactions sector The monthly increase in the total volume of domestic bank loans to domestic sectors was modest in October (0.1%); in y-o-y terms, it reached almost 3%, while exceeding 20% in the same months of2008. Given that credit market conditions tightened more notably in November last year, y-o-y growth rates are expected to decline at a slower pace in the coming months. In the first ten months of 2009, banks recorded net lending to domestic non-banking sectors in the amount of EUR 902.9 m, less than a fifth of what was recorded in the comparable period of 2008. The lending activity in most other countries of the euro area declined even more than in Slovenia relative to the month earlier. While the net flow of loans in the euro area was positive in September after two negative months, borrowers repaid their loans again in October, in a net amount of EUR 26.0 bn. This is largely due to enterprises and NFI, which repaid EUR 51.1 bn in loans, the second highest value this year. The total volume of loans thus contracted by EUR 31.1 bn in the first ten months of the year, while still being positive in the same period last year (EUR 701.9 bn). In this period, the greatest shrinkage in the volume of loans was recorded by Spain and Ireland, close to EUR 23 bn, meaning that their loan volumes declined by 1.2% and 5.7%, respectively, from the end of last year. In October, households mainly took out only housing loans. The monthly growth of housing loans remained at around 1.5% for the fourth month in a row, while the total growth of household loans was lowest in the last four months (0.8%). After being somewhat higher in September, consumer loan growth slowed again in October. In the first ten months of 2009, household borrowing totalled EUR 467.6, dropping more than half from what was recorded in the same period last year. Net borrowing in the form of housing loans accounted for nearly 90% of total household borrowing. In October, enterprises and NFI net repaid loans taken out at domestic banks for the second successive month, finding it easier to obtain financial resources on foreign markets Slovenian Economic Mirror, November 2009 25 Current Economic Trends Table 7: Selected indicators of financial markets Domestic bank loans to non-banking sector and household savings Nominal amounts, EUR bn Nominal loan growth, % 31. XII 08 31. X 08 31. X 09/ 30. IX 09 31. X 09/ 31. XII 08 31. X 09/ 31. X 08 Loans total 31,549.10 32,452.03 0.1 2.9 3.1 Enterprises and NFI 23,137.53 23,303.58 -0.3 0.7 0.9 Government 584.61 853.92 4.3 46.1 65.2 Households 7,826.96 8,294.52 0.8 6.0 5.6 Consumer credits 2,883.95 2,903.56 0.3 0.7 -0.8 Lending for house purchase 3,395.30 3,807.82 1.5 12.1 13.4 Other lending 1,547.71 1,583.14 0.1 2.3 0.7 Bank deposits total 13,689.07 14,105.41 -0.1 3.0 5.7 Overnight deposits 5,249.44 5,553.70 -1.2 5.8 5.7 Short-term deposits 5,644.79 5,318.83 -0.7 -5.8 -2.2 Long-term deposits 1,957.65 2,629.55 2.1 34.3 48.2 Deposits redeemable at notice 837.19 603.33 5.9 -27.9 -31.5 Mutual funds 1,513.38 1,810.40 0.2 19.6 3.2 Sources: Monthly Bulletin of the BS, SMA (Securities Market Agency); calculations by IMAD. than in Slovenia, even though the volume of these loans also shrank significantly in recent months. Also in October, the guarantee scheme for financing the economy and the additional proceeds from issuing bonds had not yet effected any sizeable increase in the volume of bank loans to enterprises and NFI. In October, enterprises and NFI repaid approximately EUR 75 m of loans to domestic banks. In addition to working capital loans they were also repaying investment loans. The y-o-y growth rate of the total volume of loans had already dropped below 1.0% by the end of October. Enterprises and NFI only borrowed a net EUR 166.1 m from domestic banks in the first ten months of the year, which is less than 5% of the value posted in the comparable period last year. In September, enterprises and NFI borrowed almost EUR 40 m abroad. Their net flow totalled EUR 297.4 m in the first nine months of this year, which is only slightly over one half of what was recorded in the same period last year, but nevertheless almost a quarter more than the value of the net flow of loans taken out at domestic banks. Interest rates for corporate and NFI borrowing in Slovenia are significantly higher than the euro area average, hovering around 301 basis points in October, according to the Bank of Slovenia.18 In September, banks somewhat increased the repayment of short-term foreign loans, which was, at EUR 77.8 m, nevertheless significantly below this year's monthly average (EUR 245.2 m) The maturity structure of foreign loans was slightly more favourable than in previous months, given a modest positive net flow of long-term loans recorded for the first time since March. Banks net repaid foreign loans in the amount of EUR 2.2 bn in the first three quarters of 2009. In September, a second bank had already managed to obtain additional financial sources by issuing bonds, this time in the amount of EUR 500 m; in 2009, banks managed to obtain a total of EUR 2 bn in long-term assets by issuing bonds. Household deposits in banks recorded a net outflow in October for the second consecutive month, this time in the amount of EUR 16.3 bn. Despite a modest decline, the y-o-y growth rate strengthened by 1 p.p. to 5.7% as a consequence of high outflows from banks in October 2008, the month of the highest uncertainty on financial markets. Long-term deposits also strengthened in October, as well as, for the second month in a row, deposits redeemable at notice, which had been mainly declining since October last year. Net inflows of household deposits Figure 38: Growth rates of loan volumes in euro area countries, relative to December 30 25 20 15 0 JZ Ï 10 o 5 0 -5 -10 -October 2008 -October 2009 A \J 2 E 18 Interest rates for loans above EUR 1 m with a variable or up to 1 year with a fixed interest rate. Source: ECB; calculations by IMAD. 26 Slovenian Economic Mirror, November 2009 Current Economic Trends Figure 39: Net inflows of household deposits in banks and mutual funds, and y-o-y growth rates Mutual funds (left axis) Other deposits (left axis) ^^^M Long-term time deposits (left axis) -Deposits, total (right axis) -----Long-term time deposits (right axis) -----Mutual funds (right axis) 600 400 Œ 200 0 -200 -400 / !ï.>______ \ 1 ffl^ V d Ifttti —— "l p 'l yt 1 80 60 40 % ,ht S o 20 rg -o 0 ^ -20 -40 -60 Source: BS; calculations by IMAD. in banks thus totalled EUR 416.3 m in the first ten months of this year, dropping almost 50% from the same period last year. Investors continued to be increasingly interested in mutual funds managed by domestic administrators in October, despite the negative monthly yield resulting from negative movements in the second half of the month. In October, mutual funds recorded net inflows for the fourth month in a row, which reached the highest value (EUR 12.0 m) since December 2007. Investors with a higher propensity to take risks prevailed also this time, as the share of net flows to stock mutual funds accounted for nearly 80%. Mutual funds managed by domestic administrators recorded a positive net flow of EUR 13.3 m in the first ten months Figure 40: Movement of the SBI20 and other main indices FTSE -DOW -DAX -SBI20 of this year, while they had seen a net outflow of more than EUR 260 m the same period last year. The volume of assets in mutual funds increased by a mere 0.2% in October, despite the somewhat higher net inflows. The liquidity of the Ljubljana Stock Exchange remains very modest. The turnover hovered at around EUR 60 m in October. Low liquidity was posted particularly for bonds; though they account for more than half of the total market capitalisation on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange, their monthly turnover did not even reach 10% of total turnover value. The low liquidity is most probably also due to the fact that the latest bond issues are mainly owned by foreigners and that these bonds are also traded through EuroMTS. The volume of the market capitalisation of securities listed on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange strengthened somewhat in October, but October's growth resulted from a higher market capitalisation of shares (1.3%) and bonds (0.7%). After growing for two months, the value of the main index on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange declined in November (by 4.6%), which is the second decline this year, while the value of indices on other main capital markets was mainly rising. The MSCI World index measured in euros, which shows movements on developed capital markets, thus recorded 2.1% growth in this period. Public finance In the first ten months of this year, revenue from taxes and social security contributions dropped by 7.5% relative to the same period last year. According to data on paid taxes and social security contributions,19 payments totalled EUR 10.9 bn. Despite a significant revenue increase in October compared with September, revenue remained at 92.5% in the first ten months of the year relative to the same period last year, which is approximately the same level as in the period of the last two months. October's increase is attributable to the assessment of value added tax, lower personal income tax refunds and payments in arrears of excise duties from September. The slowdown of general government revenue growth continued for most categories of taxes and contributions. Revenues from excise duties (17.1) and social security contributions (1.7%) were the only revenues to increase y-o-y in the first ten months of the year, given that the government increased duties on all excise products this year (thus increasing revenue from excise duties); all other taxes declined. Social security contributions follow wage bill dynamics and their growth continues to slow. Revenue from personal income tax declined by 4.0% y-o-y in the first ten months, largely due to higher tax refunds based on final personal income tax assessments for 2008, which posted EUR 89 m in the first ten months of the year (EUR 62.6 m last year). Revenue from personal income tax also declined due to significantly lower inflows from taxes on Source: Finance.yahoo.com, www.mscibarra.com, Lbo. 19 Based on the Report on Payments of All Public Revenues, January-October 2009, Public Payments Administration. 27 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends Table 8: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure 2008 2009 EUR m % of GDP Growth, % I-VIII 2009 in EUR m VIII 09/ VIII 08 I-VIII 09/ I-VIII 08 Revenues - total 15,335.00 41.3 9.5 9,293.6 -3.5 -6.5 - Tax revenues 13,937.20 37.5 9.2 8,505.4 2.0 -6.9 - Taxes on income and profit 3,442.10 9.3 18.0 1,849.9 -8.9 -21.5 - Social security contributions 5,095.00 13.7 10.8 3,408.0 0.6 3.3 - Domestic taxes on goods and servises 4,805.30 12.9 6.8 3,033.6 17.6 -1.9 - Receipts from the EU budget 365.4 1.0 5.0 302.1 -65.8 29.5 Expenditure - total 15,434.70 41.6 10.9 10,454.1 7.1 10.0 - Wages and other personnel expenditure 3,580.60 9.6 9.3 2,610.1 8.6 13.1 - Purchases of goods and services 2,525.90 6.8 14.2 1,588.3 14.5 5.4 - Transfers to individuals and households 5,616.20 15.1 10.3 4,039.9 7.0 10.4 - Capital expenditure 1,252.00 3.4 10.7 601.2 3.7 11.2 - Capital transfers 458 1.2 37.0 199.7 -26.0 30.7 - Payment to the EU budget 427.9 1.2 20.2 290.4 33.1 12.0 Source: MF. Figure 41: Taxes and social security contributions Source: PPA, Report on Payments of All Public Revenues; calculations by IMAD. income from entrepreneurial profits (-24.1%) and income from capital gains (-64.1%). Growth in revenue from tax on income from employment is slowing as well (2.9%). Prepayments of corporate income tax strengthened somewhat in October relative to September, but reached only slightly more than half (53.9%) of the 2008 value in the first ten months, as taxpayers can request a prepayment reduction based on deteriorated current business performance and this year's lower statutory tax rate (21.0 %). The movement of revenue from value added tax also deteriorated somewhat in October. In the first ten months of the year, the revenue from this tax dropped by 11.2% y-o-y (in the first nine months by 10.8%). According to the consolidated balance20 of the MF, in the first eight months, general government revenue totalled EUR 9.3 bn and general government expenditure EUR 10.5 bn. Revenue was 6.5% lower y-o-y in the first eight months, while having been 11.4% higher last year. Expenditure increased by as much as 10% y-o-y in the first eight months, which is more than last year (8.2%). Diminishing general government revenue with a concurrent substantial increase in general government expenditure shows a significant fiscal imbalance this Figure 42: Consolidated general government revenue and expenditure I Revenues 2008 Expenditures 2008 I Revenues 2009 I Expenditures 2009 Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. 20 The consolidated balance (according to the cash flow methodology) includes revenues and expenditures of the state and local government budgets, as well as revenues and expenditures of the pension and health funds. 1400 1000 500 0 -500 28 Slovenian Economic Mirror, September 2009 Current Economic Trends Box 7: State budgets for 2010 and 2011 The state budget deficit will amount to 5.0% of GDP in 2010. According to the adopted state budget for 2010, state budget revenue will total EUR 8.6 bn and state budget expenditure EUR 10.5 bn. The budget deficit is expected to amount to EUR 1.8 bn, which, measured as a percentage of GDP (5.0% of GDP), is roughly the same as envisaged by the supplementary budget for 2009. Revenue will be 9.2% higher next year, compared with the revenue according to the supplementary budget for 2009. Domestic budgetary sources will rise by 5.4%, while inflows from the EU budget are expected to increase at a much faster pace, by as much as 41.8%. In 2010, the increase in state budget revenue from domestic budgetary sources will mainly be underpinned by the expected growth in domestic taxes on goods and services, where revenue from value added tax will follow the (very modest) growth in domestic consumption; revenue from excise duties will be somewhat higher, due to the increase in excise duties in mid-2009. Among compulsory levies, a modest contribution to revenue growth will also come from social security contributions and, in the total sum, from certain other taxes. Revenue from corporate income tax will be generated by prepayments according to a lower tax rate (20%), while corporate income tax paid after the tax assessment will also be lower than a year before. State budget revenue from personal income tax will decline relative to the year earlier, on account of the increasing revenue from personal income tax assigned to municipalities. Non-tax revenues, particularly the expected revenues from entrepreneurial income, certain fees and charges, and other nontax revenues will also contribute to state budget revenue growth. Regarding the absorption of EU funds, the state budget sets very high goals for both 2009 and 2010. Expenditure of the adopted state budget for 2010 will increase by 7.3% relative to that projected by the supplementary budget for the previous year. In 2010, expenditure financed from domestic sources will remain at approximately the same level as in 2009, while expenditure financed from EU funds will post a significant increase. According to the economic classification of the state budget expenditure, in 2010 the greatest contribution to the increase in state budget expenditure will come from capital expenditures and capital transfers (4.5 p.p.), followed by expenditure on domestic and foreign interest payments (1.6 p.p.), which is related to the indebtedness of the state budget, and expenditures on transfers to individuals and households (0.9 p.p.). Slight increases will also be recorded for wages, contributions and other personnel expenditures in government bodies (0.3 p.p.), expenditure on goods and services (0.2 p.p.) and transfers to the PDII (0.2 p.p.). Only expenditures for subsidies, certain other transfers and payments to the EU budget will decline relative to expenditures according to the supplementary budget for 2009. Transfers to public institutions will remain at the same nominal level as a year earlier. Expenditures envisaged by both state budgets already take into account the provisions of the interventive act that was adopted simultaneously with the state budgets stipulating that pensions, wages of civil servants and social transfers will only be adjusted by half of the growth determined by law. The state budgets for 2010 and 2011 were drafted according to the principles of results-oriented budgeting, which involves setting clear goals and purposes of spending public finance funds. State budget expenditure is therefore broken down by programme structure, which is consistent with development policies and development priorities. According to programme structure, in 2010 the increase in public finance expenditure will largely come from transport and transport infrastructure programmes (2.5 p.p.), public debt service (1.9 p.p.) and social security and health care programmes (1.7 p.p.). The labour market, higher education and science will also make significant contributions to state budget expenditure growth (0.7 p.p. each). Contributions of other programmes are small; expenditures on institutions of the political system, governance of public administration systems and institutions enforcing the rule of law are expected to be somewhat lower. In 2011, state budget revenue is estimated to total EUR 8.8 bn (2.0% higher than a year before), and state budget expenditure EUR 10.4 bn, 1% less than in 2010. The state budget deficit for 2011 is expected to be EUR 1.6 bn, or 4.1% of estimated GDP, which is 0.9 p.p. of GDP down from 2010. Table 9: State budget revenue, expenditure and balance, 2007-2011 In EUR m 2007 2008 2009 supplementary budget II 2010 2011 TOTAL REVENUE 7,799 8,535 7,920 8,648 8,822 - Share of GDP 22.6 23.0 22.1 23.8 23.2 TOTAL EXPENDITURE 7,762 8,470 9,759 10,474 10,376 - Share of GDP 22.5 22.8 27.2 28.8 27.3 DEFICIT/SURPLUS 37 65 -1,839 -1,826 -1,554 - Share of GDP 0.1 0.2 -5.1 -5.0 -4.1 Source: MF, Public Finance Bulletin, State budgets for 2010 and 2011; calculations by IMAD. year, which deteriorated somewhat further in August. The consolidated balance of public financing reported a deficit of EUR 1,116 m at the end of the first eight months of the year. In terms of economic structure of expenditures, the greatest y-o-y increase was seen in the same period in capital expenditures and capital transfers (15.5 %), and wages and other personnel expenditures (13.1 %). The latter are otherwise slowing, but result from wage reform Slovenian Economic Mirror, November 2009 Current Economic Trends 29 implementation and growth in the number of employed persons. Transfers to individuals and households also recorded significant growth (10.4%), with expenditure on transfers to the unemployed (81.1%) increasing from month to month due to the deteriorating situation on the labour market. After February's valorisation of pensions, growth in expenditure on pensions was 9.2% in the first eight months of the year. Growth in expenditure on goods and services totalled 5.4% and strengthened somewhat in August, after slowing in the previous two months. The state government deficit climbed to EUR 1,031 m in the first eight months of 2009. The health fund also posted a deficit at the end of the first eight months (EUR 80.0 m). The pension fund was roughly balanced, given a transfer from the state budget that amounted to EUR 946. m in this period. The total balance of local government budgets was also negative in the first eight months, with local governments posting a deficit of EUR 51.0 m. Figure 43: Planned and absorbed EU funds Structural policy Common Agricultural Policy Cohesion policy Internal policies Other Pre-accession EU funds 0 100 200 300 400 500 EUR million Source: MF; calculations by IMAD. ■ Funds planned by the state budget for 2009 ■ Funds planned by the state budget for 2008 I Total funds received in 2009 (Jan-Nov) Total funds received in 2008 (Jan-Dec) Refunds from the EU budget to the state budget were very high in November, as much as 29.0% of all refunds this year, while payments to the EU budget declined by more than EUR 100 m; Slovenia's net position thus improved, turning positive again (EUR 62 m). High absorption was posted for funds under the Common Agricultural Policy from the Rural Development Programme. Large refunds from the EU budget were recorded in the area of Cohesion Policy funds, in the amount of EUR 25 m, of which nearly EUR 19 m was from the operational programme of environment and transport infrastructure. The absorption of Structural Policy funds was the highest to date, EUR 62.5 m, of which almost EUR 60 m was from the operational programme for strengthening regional development potentials, which accounted for more than 50% of total structural policy funds this year. Payments to the EU budget totalled EUR 33.4 m in November. selected topics Slovenian Economic Mirror, November 2009 33 Selected Topics Agricultural output in 2008 Agricultural output in a calendar year is evident from the economic accounts for agriculture, which provide detailed, transparent and comprehensive information on the broader situation in this sector. Given that the economic accounts for agriculture are satellite accounts of the national accounts, all categories are directly comparable, despite certain methodological differences.21. The accounts for Slovenia are prepared by SORS. Using the published final results for 2008, we carried out a thorough examination of the latest changes in the volume and structure of agricultural output.22. Owing to the uniform European methodology, the results could be compared with data recorded by other EU Member States. 21 Four methodological differences between the Economic Accounts for Agriculture (EAA) and National Accounts (NA) are of particular importance: coverage of production units (in addition to agricultural enterprises and cooperatives, the EAA only covers all European-comparable family farms, while the NA also includes horticultural production and own-account animal production), measuring inputs and outputs (unlike the NA, the EAA also includes intermediate consumption of products by another activity within the same agricultural holding), measuring work-in-progress (crop production with an unfinished production cycle at the end of the year is not regarded as work-in-progress in the EAA, unlike in the NA) and coverage of animal imports (in the EAA, all animal imports are regarded as a change in inventories and subtracted from the value of sales, while in the NA, imports of animals serving as breeding stocks are considered as acquisitions in the capital account). 22 The output volume was calculated using the published data on the output value at current and preceding year prices. According to the economic accounts for agriculture, the total volume of agricultural output declined slightly in 2008. After increasing by 3.7% in 2007 compared with a year earlier, it declined by 0.9% last year. It has fluctuated significantly since 2000 and was lower than last year only in the three weather-wise unfavourable years, 2001, 2003 and 2006, while the output in 2004 and 2005, when weather conditions were relatively good, was much higher. Last year, the volume of crop production declined by 1.6%, while the volume of animal production dropped by 0.1%. The share of crop production in total agricultural production thus declined from 53.6% to 48.3%, while the share of animal production increased from 44.7% to 49.8%. The share of agricultural services remained relatively modest, below 2%, despite the increase. The total decline in the volume of agricultural output mainly came from fruit and wine growing. Fruit and wine growing saw rather poor harvests due to spring frosts and summer hail storms. In most crops, with the exception of oil plants, the average yield per unit of sown area did not diverge from the normal yield, but fewer areas were sown (for example, with leguminous, root and tuberous crops). In vegetable cultivation, the yield increased significantly after three years of decline (by 20.6%; the increase in the total group of vegetables and horticultural plants was, however, lower), which is favourable, given Slovenia's low self-sufficiency rate, even if the yield only achieved the Table 10: Changes in agricultural output in 2000-2008 Structure in 2008, % Output volume, annual growth rates, % 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Crop production 48.3 0.5 -11.6 29.6 -25.4 46.7 -2.5 -12.6 3.9 -1.6 Of which: Cereals 7.3 4.7 1.1 21.1 -33.9 42.7 -0.6 -13.7 8.8 8.0 Industrial plants 3.8 -25.2 -17.7 28.4 -18.0 17.3 16.0 -1.4 -29.1 -7.0 Fodder plants 9.2 -16.1 -1.6 26.1 -29.3 49.8 11.2 -21.0 12.6 2.4 Vegetables and horticultural products 6.9 -10.3 -10.4 19.0 -20.5 59.6 2.6 -12.2 -15.5 11.7 Potatoes 2.1 3.9 -17.7 14.1 -34.6 50.6 -16.1 -20.1 28.0 -23.0 Fruit 9.2 26.4 -30.3 32.0 -21.4 35.8 -16.8 1.5 1.2 -12.3 Wine 9.9 32.3 -15.8 57.5 -19.0 51.1 -20.1 -9.4 8.9 -7.8 Animal output 49.8 1.8 2.2 1.0 -0.7 -3.3 -0.6 -2.0 4.3 -0.1 Animals 28.8 0.9 3.4 -2.1 2.8 -3.9 -1.7 -2.6 3.4 0.0 Of which: Cattle 11.5 4.0 -1.7 -2.5 1.8 -3.3 -2.3 -4.7 4.2 4.3 Pigs 7.9 -7.6 9.4 1.6 1.9 -2.9 -6.8 4.9 -6.4 -6.5 Poultry 8.4 2.7 8.2 -9.0 6.3 -6.9 4.1 -9.4 19.6 0.4 Animal products 20.9 3.4 0.4 6.2 -5.6 -2.4 1.1 -1.1 5.6 -0.4 Milk 17.3 2.1 0.6 7.7 -3.7 -2.9 1.8 -2.5 3.8 -1.9 Eggs 2.7 -0.1 -4.1 -5.9 -18.6 -9.3 -2.7 5.9 23.8 12.3 Total agricultural goods output 98.1 1.2 -4.3 13.6 -13.1 19.5 -1.6 -7.5 4.1 -1.0 Agricultural services 1.9 -11.7 -3.5 0.0 0.0 3.4 8.8 0.0 -14.0 4.8 Total agricultural output 100.0 1.0 -4.3 13.4 -12.9 19.2 -1.5 -7.3 3.7 -0.9 Source: SORS; calculations by IMAD.. 34 Slovenian Economic Mirror, November 2009 Selected Topics level of 2006.23 Animal output recorded a smaller change, which is typical, given its independence of weather conditions and a longer production cycle, though the volume also declined somewhat in this sector: the volume of animal production remained unchanged, while the volume of animal products declined due to lower milk production. Figure 44: Growth in the agricultural output volume in the EU-27 in 2008 U. Kingdom Sweden Finland Estonia Ireland Belgium SLOVENIA Spain Greece Italy Portugal Netherlands Luxembourg France Latvia EU-27 Germany Denmark Austria Malta Lithuania Poland Romania Czech R. Slovakia Hungary Bulgaria -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Growth, % Source: SORS, Eurostat; calculations by IMAD. In the EU-27 average and in most EU countries, the volume of agricultural productionincreased in2008. On average, it rose by 2.8%, but the increases were notably above the average particularly in new EU Member States, which otherwise post low productivity in the agricultural sector. Production also increased in all three neighbouring countries: in Italy by 1.9%, in Austria by 4.7% and in Hungary by as much as 27.6%, after a lower harvest in the year before. In Austria, possessing similar natural endowments for agricultural production and a fairly similar production structure to Slovenia (in 2008, around 47% of crop production in the total volume of production, in Slovenia approx. 1 p.p. more), crop production was 9.2% higher after the 5.3% growth in the year before, while in Slovenia, it declined by 1.6% after the 3.9% growth in the year before. Only three northern EU countries recorded a larger crop production decline than Slovenia: Estonia, Finland and Sweden (total agricultural output also declined in Great Britain, Ireland and Belgium, though in these countries, the declines were due to lower animal output). Slovenia is otherwise characterised by substantial annual fluctuations in crop production, which shows that its agriculture is relatively highly dependent on weather conditions.24 By increasing 23 For more on the low self-sufficiency issues, see SEM, October 2009: 36-38. 24 Less than 1% of arable land and around 20% of intensive orchard plantations are irrigated in Slovenia. Less than 10% of market horticultural production areas are protected. protection and through irrigation of agricultural areas, we could stabilise production and achieve higher yields, higher quality and, consequently, higher value added. statistical appendix Slovenian Economic Mirror, November 2009 37 Statistical Appendix MAIN INDICATORS 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Autumn forecast 2009 estimate forecast forecast GDP (real growth rates, in %) 4.3 4.5 5.8 6.8 3.5 -7.3 0.9 2.5 GDP in EUR million (current prices and current exchange rate) 27,162 28,750 31,055 34,568 37,135 35,870 36,386 38,058 GDP per capita, in EUR (current prices and current exchange rate) 13,599 14,369 15,467 17,123 18,367 17,657 17,866 18,647 GDP per capita (PPS)1 18,700 19,600 20,700 22,200 23,100 - - - GDP per capita (PPS EU27=100)1 86.4 87.4 87.6 89.2 92.1 - - - Gross national income (current prices and current fiksni exchange rate) 26,760 28,506 30,683 33,854 36,278 35,244 35,527 37,004 Gross national disposable income (current prices and current fiksni exchange rate) 26,716 28,362 30,467 33,627 35,993 35,065 35,441 36,783 Rate of registered unemployment 10.3 10.2 9.4 7.7 6.7 9.1 10.6 10.9 Standardised rate of unemployment (ILO) 6.3 6.5 6.0 4.9 4.4 5.7 6.7 7.3 Labour productivity (GDP per employee) 4.0 4.7 4.2 3.7 0.7 -5.0 2.5 3.4 Inflation,2 year average 3.6 2.5 2.5 3.6 5.7 1.0 1.5 2.5 Inflation,2 end of the year 3.2 2.3 2.8 5.6 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.7 INTERNATIONAL TRADE - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS STATISTICS Exports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 12.4 10.6 12.5 13.7 2.9 -17.9 4.1 6.8 Exports of goods 12.8 10.3 13.4 13.8 0.0 -19.0 3.6 6.5 Exports of services 10.9 12.0 8.6 13.2 16.2 -13.5 6.1 7.8 Imports of goods and services3 (real growth rates, in %) 13.3 6.6 12.2 16.3 2.9 -19.8 1.8 4.9 Imports of goods 14.6 6.8 12.7 15.8 2.6 -21.9 1.3 4.8 Imports of services 5.6 5.5 8.8 19.7 4.9 -6.1 4.4 5.6 Current account balance, in EUR million -720 -498 -771 -1,646 -2,287 -82 10 29 As a per cent share relative to GDP -2.6 -1.7 -2.5 -4.8 -6.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 Gross external debt, in EUR million 15,343 20,496 24,067 34,752 38,997 40,1294 - As a per cent share relative to GDP 56.7 71.4 77.6 100.8 105.0 - - - Ratio of USD to EUR 1.242 1.244 1.254 1.371 1.46 1.27 1.27 1.27 DOMESTIC DEMAND - NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS Private consumption (real growth rates, in %) 2.7 2.6 2.9 6.7 2.0 -2.0 0.0 1.0 As a % of GDP* 55.0 54.2 52.8 52.7 52.7 53.7 53.8 53.2 Government consumption (real growth rates, in %) 3.4 3.4 4.0 0.7 6.2 3.2 -1.5 0.0 As a % of GDP* 18.9 19.0 18.8 17.3 18.1 20.1 19.7 19.4 Gross fixed capital formation (real growth rates, in %) 5.6 3.7 9.9 11.7 7.7 -21.0 -2.0 3.0 As a % of GDP* 24.9 25.5 26.5 27.7 28.9 23.7 23.2 23.3 Sources of data: SORS, BS, Eurostat-New Cronos, estimate, calculations and forecasts by IMAD. Notes: 'Measured in purchasing power standard; 2Consumer price index; 3Balance of payments statistics (exports F.O.B., imports F.O.B.); real growth rates are adjusted for inter currency changes and changes in prices on foreign markets; 4End September 2009; *Shares GDP are calculated for GDP in current prices at fixed exchange rate (EUR=239.64). Slovenian Economic Mirror, November 2009 38 Statistical Appendix PRODUCTION 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 9 10 11 12 1 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, y-o-y growth rates, % Industry B+C+D 5.7 7.2 -1.4 7.5 5.3 6.4 8.4 3.3 -7.7 -18.7 -24.2 -17.7 3.8 11.0 3.0 1.3 5.2 B Mining and quarrying 7.5 5.5 -0.6 8.1 -7.3 13.8 3.5 7.1 -1.2 -6.1 -13.8 6.2 -7.2 -0.9 -5.9 -16.4 23.1 C Manufacturing 6.2 8.5 -1.6 8.2 7.2 6.9 8.7 3.7 -8.4 -20.3 -25.4 -18.6 4.7 12.7 4.4 4.0 5.8 D Electricity, gas & steam supply1 -1.0 -11.1 2.1 -5.0 -15.9 -2.3 8.2 -1.1 4.5 -3.6 -9.1 -10.2 -8.2 -10.9 -14.4 -21.5 -6.3 CONSTRUCTION,2 real indices of construction put in place, y-o-y growth rates, % Construction, total 15.7 18.5 15.7 16.2 0.2 32.5 17.0 15.7 4.2 -19.2 -19.0 -24.6 2.3 7.3 6.2 -14.3 39.4 Buildings 17.1 14.3 11.5 7.3 4.2 37.8 7.3 11.5 -2.0 -20.8 -21.8 -27.6 -8.7 0.5 18.4 -5.4 56.3 Civil engineering 14.6 21.9 18.9 23.3 -2.6 28.0 24.3 18.6 8.9 -17.6 -17.2 -22.6 10.5 11.7 -2.3 -21.0 23.9 TRANSPORT, tonne-km in m, y-o-y growth rates, % Tonne-km in road transport 9.8 13.4 18.4 30.2 19.1 26.7 23.5 7.7 17.2 -12.7 -7.6 - - - - - - Tonne-km in rail transport 3.9 6.8 -2.3 5.8 -3.7 -5.3 -2.9 2.9 -3.6 -24.1 -26.0 - - - - - - Distributive trades, y-o-y growth rates, % Total real turnover* 6.3 9.7 10.1 12.3 11.8 15.7 13.1 10.5 2.3 -10.2 -15.8 -16.2 13.4 16.8 11.7 7.0 18.1 Real turnover in retail trade 2.7 6.1 12.2 7.8 9.6 14.0 15.5 12.7 7.2 -5.6 -11.9 -14.3 12.8 11.0 9.5 8.5 12.8 Real turnover in the sale and maintenance of motor vehicles 17.8 19.2 6.2 24.8 17.9 22.0 9.6 5.6 -9.9 -24.0 -28.0 -23.5 16.0 32.7 17.7 3.4 34.7 Nominal turnover in wholesale trade & commission trade 10.5 16.1 17.1 15.1 15.2 20.7 23.9 20.9 4.8 -16.4 -23.8 -26.7 13.2 19.5 19.2 7.5 21.6 TOURISM, y-o-y growth rates, % Total, overnight stays 2.0 7.0 1.8 6.8 5.5 4.2 1.0 1.8 0.6 -3.3 -3.8 1.7 3.6 4.6 8.3 4.0 2.9 Domestic tourists, overnight stays 1.9 4.9 5.2 2.3 5.5 4.8 4.6 4.7 7.2 5.2 2.3 11.7 -3.7 4.2 2.6 9.6 12.1 Foreign tourists, overnight stays 2.0 8.4 -0.5 9.8 5.5 3.6 -1.3 0.1 -4.8 -11.0 -7.9 -4.7 7.8 4.8 13.7 -0.9 -2.6 Turnover in hotels and restaurants 6.7 2.3 -2.8 4.0 2.9 -1.8 -1.6 -3.1 -4.4 -9.5 -12.8 -11.7 2.8 2.8 2.6 3.2 -2.5 AGRICULTURE, y-o-y growth rates, % Purchase of agricultural products, SIT bn, since 2007 in EUR m 106.7 492.2 529.9 120.8 160.3 117.9 125.6 134.1 152.3 105.4 105.9 109.0 40.7 46.2 53.1 61.0 38.5 BUSSINES TENDENCY (indicator values**) Sentiment indicator 10 13 1 13 11 10 7 3 -16 -25 -24 -20 12 12 10 11 11 Confidence indicator - in manufacturing 10 12 -5 12 10 7 1 -6 -23 -29 -26 -22 11 11 9 10 9 - in construction 4 17 3 15 13 14 11 4 -17 -42 -52 -53 12 12 9 17 12 - in services 27 29 22 30 26 30 27 25 7 -14 -18 -11 27 27 23 28 28 - in retail trade 22 27 23 29 30 29 29 26 9 -16 -17 -12 34 28 30 31 26 Consumer confidence indicator -14 -11 -20 -10 -18 -20 -16 -16 -28 -40 -31 -23 -16 -17 -19 -17 -23 Source of data: SORS. Notes: 'Only companies with activity of electricity supply are included. 2The survey covers all larger construction enterprises and some other enterprises that perform construction work. *Total real turnover in retail trade, the sale and repair of motor wehicles, and retail sale of automotive fuels; **Seasonally adjusted data. Slovenian Economic Mirror, November 2009 39 Statistical Appendix 2008 2009 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12.9 1.7 14.8 3.8 6.8 2.0 -2.0 9.3 0.5 -11.7 -13.2 -17.9 -21.7 -16.5 -29.3 -21.9 -21.3 -20.2 -16.8 -16.1 - - 18.8 3.6 9.5 -4.4 5.6 34.4 -19.2 14.4 -1.0 -14.7 18.8 -6.0 -3.1 -8.9 -21.7 -10.3 -8.1 4.2 12.9 2.7 - - 13.6 2.0 15.6 4.2 6.7 1.7 -1.2 9.8 0.8 -12.5 -15.4 -19.4 -23.8 -17.7 -30.8 -23.2 -22.1 -21.3 -18.2 -16.4 - - 1.2 -1.2 8.1 4.2 12.2 0.2 -5.5 1.9 1.0 4.7 7.5 -5.6 -1.9 -3.2 -9.9 -5.3 -11.8 -10.1 -8.0 -12.5 - - 40.5 21.4 22.8 13.8 15.4 15.9 8.6 22.4 15.1 -2.3 -3.6 -26.9 -22.7 -9.7 -20.4 -20.8 -15.9 -20.8 -19.5 -32.2 - - 44.8 18.6 10.5 3.1 8.9 0.2 10.7 24.2 12.0 -11.5 -6.9 -32.7 -17.3 -12.7 -18.0 -23.5 -23.4 -23.2 -26.8 -31.9 - - 36.8 23.8 32.4 21.7 20.4 28.0 7.0 21.3 17.0 5.4 -0.6 -20.3 -27.5 -7.3 -22.0 -19.1 -10.7 -19.4 -14.1 -32.3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 23.8 7.2 17.4 11.8 10.3 12.6 5.8 12.8 2.8 1.0 3.1 -6.2 -15.6 -8.8 -16.9 -17.4 -13.1 -15.1 -15.0 -18.4 - - 23.8 7.0 16.2 19.1 11.4 13.4 10.8 13.8 7.3 7.0 7.1 2.3 -13.4 -5.4 -9.9 -15.3 -10.3 -12.1 -13.7 -17.2 -13.4 - 26.3 9.4 22.0 -1.1 9.0 12.3 -7.4 10.6 -7.4 -12.5 -10.1 -27.6 -24.5 -20.5 -34.7 -25.7 -23.1 -25.5 -20.4 -24.6 -14.8 - 30.1 12.3 31.9 20.6 19.2 22.9 11.2 28.0 11.6 2.1 0.5 -16.9 -19.3 -13.3 -24.9 -25.3 -21.0 -27.5 -25.2 -27.3 - - 9.0 0.5 -8.5 14.0 -2.4 3.6 3.2 -3.2 -2.1 -4.4 8.7 3.6 -6.1 -6.9 3.6 -11.4 -1.8 -0.8 4.9 0.2 0.0 - 11.7 -8.5 8.5 10.5 -2.1 1.1 8.9 3.9 6.0 4.4 11.0 9.6 -1.5 10.7 4.3 -2.2 4.4 13.3 12.3 7.7 3.0 - 5.6 8.9 -18.3 16.2 -2.6 5.3 -0.2 -6.8 -7.4 -11.9 6.5 -0.6 -12.5 -20.5 3.0 -16.9 -6.3 -10.3 0.1 -4.1 -2.0 - 3.6 -5.7 -2.5 2.9 -5.0 -3.3 -3.8 -2.1 -1.1 -4.3 -7.6 -7.4 -12.1 -9.1 -11.7 -13.2 -13.2 -12.0 -9.5 -13.7 - 39.3 40.0 42.6 43.0 39.9 44.5 42.2 47.4 49.0 45.3 58.1 32.9 32.6 39.9 36.3 35.5 34.1 35.9 33.8 39.2 - - 10 10 10 7 5 4 4 2 -5 -20 -23 -24 -24 -26 -26 -23 -22 -22 -21 -18 -20 -19 6 6 4 1 -2 -4 -5 -8 -13 -27 -29 -30 -29 -29 -28 -26 -25 -25 -22 -19 -18 -17 12 17 13 11 8 7 1 3 -4 -17 -30 -38 -40 -47 -54 -49 -54 -50 -56 -54 -54 -47 31 31 30 26 24 24 27 24 19 4 -3 -9 -14 -19 -23 -17 -14 -13 -12 -8 -8 -9 28 32 29 30 27 29 25 24 25 4 -3 -14 -14 -20 -17 -17 -18 -16 -10 -10 -11 -12 -20 -16 -12 -18 -19 -18 -19 -12 -17 -33 -35 -44 -38 -37 -41 -29 -23 -26 -27 -16 -26 -24 Slovenian Economic Mirror, November 2009 40 Statistical Appendix LABOUR MARKET 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009 2007 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 9 10 11 12 FORMAL LABOUR FORCE (A=B+E) 910.7 925.3 942.5 924.6 934.2 937.7 940.9 942.2 949.2 945.9 945.6 942.6 926.0 934.0 935.8 932.8 PERSONS IN FORMAL EMPLOYMENT (B=C+D)1 824.8 854.0 879.3 856.1 865.4 870.8 879.4 881.7 885.1 869.0 861.0 854.3 859.4 864.5 867.4 864.4 In agriculture, forestry, fishing 37.7 40.4 39.7 39.9 39.2 40.8 39.9 39.2 38.9 37.8 38.0 37.9 39.9 39.3 39.3 39.2 In industry, construction 310.9 321.9 330.4 324.1 326.8 327.1 331.2 333.0 330.4 317.4 309.3 304.0 325.2 327.1 327.9 325.3 Of which: in manufacturing 221.7 223.6 222.4 223.4 224.2 224.0 224.0 222.3 219.1 209.5 201.4 196.7 223.5 224.4 224.7 223.5 in construction 69.5 78.4 87.9 80.6 82.5 83.2 87.1 90.5 91.1 87.8 87.6 86.9 81.5 82.5 83.1 81.8 In services 476.2 491.6 509.1 492.1 499.4 503.0 508.3 509.4 515.9 513.8 513.7 512.4 494.3 498.1 500.3 499.9 Of which: in public administration 50.4 50.3 51.0 50.4 50.6 50.8 51.0 51.1 51.0 51.1 51.5 51.7 50.4 50.5 50.5 50.7 in education, health-services, social work 108.0 108.8 111.1 108.2 109.8 110.7 111.0 110.1 112.4 113.2 114.1 113.3 109.1 109.7 109.9 109.7 FORMALLY EMPLOYED (C)1 741.6 766.0 789.9 768.6 777.8 781.2 790.3 792.7 795.3 779.7 770.8 762.9 771.6 777.0 779.7 776.7 In enterprises and organisations 675.1 696.1 717.6 697.5 706.2 710.4 718.0 719.8 722.0 709.9 701.9 695.5 700.1 705.2 707.7 705.9 By those self-employed 66.5 69.9 72.3 71.1 71.6 70.8 72.2 73.0 73.2 69.8 68.8 67.4 71.5 71.8 72.0 70.8 SELF-EMPLOYED AND FARMERS (D) 83.3 87.9 89.4 87.6 87.6 89.6 89.2 88.9 89.8 89.3 90.3 91.4 87.8 87.5 87.7 87.7 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT (E) 85.8 71.3 63.2 68.4 68.8 66.8 61.4 60.5 64.1 76.9 84.6 88.3 66.7 69.5 68.4 68.4 Female 47.0 39.1 33.4 38.0 37.3 35.6 32.8 32.1 33.0 38.4 41.6 43.2 36.7 38.0 37.1 36.7 By age: under 26 18.2 11.9 9.1 10.3 11.7 10.3 8.4 7.7 10.0 12.2 13.1 12.8 9.5 12.2 11.6 11.2 aged over 50 21.8 22.2 21.9 22.1 22.2 22.6 21.9 21.7 21.6 24.1 25.6 26.9 22.0 22.1 22.1 22.3 Unskilled 33.7 28.0 25.4 27.0 26.9 26.8 24.6 24.3 25.8 31.2 33.6 34.8 26.7 27.0 26.8 27.1 For more than 1 year 41.9 36.5 32.3 35.5 35.0 34.0 32.5 31.9 31.0 31.0 30.4 31.1 35.0 35.3 35.0 34.7 Those receiving benefits 22.7 16.6 14.4 15.8 14.7 15.0 13.6 13.9 15.1 22.8 27.4 28.6 15.2 14.8 14.5 14.7 RATE OF REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT, E/A, in % 9.4 7.7 6.7 7.4 7.4 7.1 6.5 6.4 6.8 8.1 8.9 9.4 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.3 Male 7.7 6.2 5.6 5.9 6.0 6.0 5.4 5.4 5.8 7.3 8.1 8.5 5.8 6.0 6.0 6.1 Female 11.5 9.6 8.1 9.3 9.0 8.6 7.9 7.8 7.9 9.2 10.0 10.4 9.0 9.2 9.0 8.9 FLOWS OF FORMAL LABOUR FORCE 5.2 21.5 13.7 0.6 6.7 5.7 4.2 1.9 1.9 -0.8 -0.1 -0.1 2.9 8.0 1.8 -3.0 New unemployed first-job seekers 18.6 14.7 12.5 2.3 7.2 2.2 1.8 1.9 6.5 3.2 2.6 3.0 1.0 5.3 1.2 0.6 Redundancies 63.8 52.5 53.0 12.6 12.9 12.5 10.7 12.5 17.4 24.8 22.5 19.9 4.2 4.5 4.3 4.1 Registered unemployed who found employment 57.4 49.1 41.7 11.3 10.9 12.4 9.7 9.9 9.6 9.5 11.8 14.2 4.4 4.3 4.1 2.5 Other outflows from unemployment (net) 39.2 28.0 26.1 6.2 7.4 6.4 6.3 5.9 7.4 5.2 6.5 3.2 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.2 Increase in number of work permits for foreigners 7.8 15.3 24.6 4.3 2.2 6.0 9.5 7.0 2.1 1.9 -4.8 -5.5 0.5 1.7 0.3 0.2 Retirements2 20.6 20.7 22.5 5.0 5.9 5.4 4.8 6.3 6.1 5.4 5.3 4.8 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.6 Deaths2 2.4 2.4 2.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Others who found employment2 24.8 14.4 16.0 4.5 9.9 8.8 3.2 4.4 6.0 4.0 13.1 7.5 6.1 5.5 4.6 -0.3 REGISTERED VACANCIES3 19.0 20.2 20.0 20.4 19.1 21.6 21.1 21.5 15.9 13.4 13.4 14.0 22.8 24.4 18.7 14.2 For a fixed term, in % 75.3 76.5 74.5 77.2 74.4 73.0 74.0 76.5 74.7 74.9 77.9 80.8 76.5 76.4 75.2 69.8 WORK PERMITS FOR FOREIGNERS 48.3 60.2 81.1 63.0 65.8 68.7 79.0 86.3 90.5 91.5 90.2 84.9 63.9 65.6 65.9 66.1 As % of labour force 5.3 6.5 8.6 6.8 7.0 7.3 8.4 9.2 9.5 9.7 9.5 9.0 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.1 NEW JOBS 155.9 160.0 162.7 38.7 41.5 40.9 41.0 42.7 38.1 27.5 27.3 28.2 16.9 18.2 13.6 9.7 Sources of data: SORS, PDII, ESS. Notes: 1In January 2005, the SORS adopted new methodology of obtaining data on persons in paid employment. The new source of data for employed and self-employed persons excluding farmers is the Statistical Register of Employment (SRE), while data on farmers are forecast using the ARIMA model based on quarterly figures for farmers from the Labour Force Survey. Data for previous years dating back to January 2000 have also been calculated according to the new methodology. 2Estimated by IMAD, based on data by PDII and ESS; 3according to ESS. Slovenian Economic Mirror, November 2009 41 Statistical Appendix 2008 2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 936.6 937.9 938.5 939.1 940.8 942.7 941.4 940.5 944.6 950.7 950.3 946.5 946.2 945.9 945.7 946.1 945.3 945.6 944.1 941.6 942.1 867.3 870.9 874.2 876.6 879.6 882.0 879.9 879.8 885.3 888.1 886.9 880.3 872.2 868.7 866.0 863.2 860.8 859.1 855.6 853.5 853.8 40.7 40.8 40.8 39.9 39.9 39.8 39.3 39.2 39.2 38.9 38.9 38.8 37.8 37.8 37.8 38.0 38.0 38.0 37.9 37.9 37.9 325.8 327.1 328.5 330.0 331.2 332.6 332.5 332.5 333.9 333.7 331.5 325.9 320.1 317.4 314.7 311.8 309.1 307.1 305.3 303.9 302.8 223.7 224.0 224.2 224.1 223.9 224.0 222.7 222.2 222.2 221.3 219.8 216.3 211.8 209.6 207.0 203.6 201.2 199.2 197.8 196.5 195.9 82.1 83.1 84.2 85.8 87.1 88.4 89.7 90.2 91.6 92.2 91.5 89.5 88.3 87.7 87.5 87.8 87.5 87.5 87.2 86.9 86.5 500.9 503.1 504.9 506.8 508.6 509.6 508.1 508.1 512.2 515.5 516.5 515.6 514.4 513.6 513.5 513.5 513.7 514.0 512.4 511.7 513.1 50.9 50.9 50.7 50.9 50.9 51.1 50.9 51.0 51.2 51.1 51.1 50.8 51.2 51.0 51.3 51.4 51.5 51.6 51.7 51.7 51.8 110.3 110.8 111.0 111.2 111.0 110.9 109.7 109.4 111.4 112.0 112.5 112.6 112.8 113.2 113.7 114.0 114.2 114.1 113.0 112.6 114.2 777.9 781.3 784.3 787.6 790.5 792.8 791.1 790.9 796.1 798.5 797.0 790.2 783.0 779.5 776.6 773.3 770.5 768.5 764.5 762.1 762.1 707.8 710.5 713.0 715.8 718.2 720.2 718.5 718.2 722.6 724.6 723.4 718.1 712.6 709.7 707.3 704.3 701.7 699.8 696.5 694.6 695.2 70.2 70.8 71.3 71.8 72.3 72.6 72.7 72.7 73.5 74.0 73.5 72.2 70.4 69.7 69.3 69.0 68.8 68.7 68.0 67.5 66.8 89.4 89.6 89.9 89.1 89.2 89.2 88.8 88.9 89.2 89.6 89.9 90.0 89.2 89.3 89.5 90.0 90.3 90.6 91.1 91.4 91.7 69.2 67.0 64.3 62.4 61.2 60.7 61.6 60.7 59.3 62.6 63.4 66.2 73.9 77.2 79.7 82.8 84.5 86.5 88.5 88.1 88.4 36.9 35.7 34.3 33.5 32.6 32.4 33.0 32.3 31.1 32.7 32.6 33.7 37.2 38.5 39.5 40.8 41.5 42.5 43.5 43.2 43.0 11.1 10.3 9.5 8.8 8.4 8.1 8.1 7.8 7.3 9.8 9.9 10.2 11.7 12.3 12.7 13.2 13.1 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.2 22.8 22.7 22.3 22.0 21.9 21.8 21.9 21.7 21.4 21.4 21.5 21.9 23.6 24.1 24.5 25.1 25.7 26.1 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.6 26.9 25.9 25.0 24.6 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.9 25.5 27.0 30.1 31.4 32.2 33.0 33.5 34.2 34.7 34.7 35.0 34.7 34.0 33.3 32.7 32.5 32.2 32.1 31.8 31.6 31.4 30.9 30.8 31.2 31.0 30.7 30.4 30.3 30.5 30.7 31.0 31.7 15.6 15.1 14.2 13.7 13.6 13.4 13.9 13.9 13.7 14.1 14.4 16.8 20.9 22.8 24.5 25.9 27.6 28.7 28.9 28.5 28.3 7.4 7.1 6.9 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.6 6.7 7.0 7.8 8.2 8.4 8.8 8.9 9.1 9.4 9.4 9.4 6.2 6.0 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.6 5.7 6.1 6.9 7.3 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.9 8.6 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.8 8.0 7.8 7.5 7.9 7.9 8.1 9.0 9.3 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.4 10.4 3.8 1.4 0.6 0.6 1.7 2.0 -1.3 -0.9 4.1 6.1 -0.5 -3.8 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.3 -0.7 0.3 -1.5 -2.5 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 4.6 1.2 0.8 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.5 5.8 3.4 3.3 3.6 3.4 3.6 4.6 3.4 4.5 5.2 5.5 6.6 10.4 6.9 7.5 8.2 7.4 7.0 7.3 5.5 7.2 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.6 3.2 2.9 2.3 3.1 4.5 4.0 3.2 2.4 3.2 2.7 3.6 3.7 4.3 3.9 4.0 4.6 5.5 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.6 2.0 1.7 2.0 1.6 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.2 0.7 1.9 2.5 2.4 2.2 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.8 -0.2 2.4 3.8 4.2 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.9 1.9 1.7 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.5 1.4 -0.6 -1.5 -2.7 -1.2 -1.9 -1.3 2.4 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.6 2.2 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.8 2.3 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.4 2.4 2.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 7.1 1.6 0.0 -0.4 1.7 2.0 -0.8 -0.7 6.0 4.3 2.7 -1.1 1.3 1.7 1.1 3.9 3.7 5.5 2.1 2.7 5.8 22.4 22.8 19.8 21.6 21.6 20.2 19.8 20.1 24.7 19.7 15.7 12.3 13.7 12.2 14.2 12.0 13.9 14.5 14.7 12.3 14.9 71.9 73.0 74.2 72.7 74.4 74.9 76.9 76.8 76.0 74.9 75.6 73.1 72.0 75.0 77.5 77.2 77.8 78.7 80.0 82.0 80.7 65.8 68.3 72.1 76.3 79.1 81.6 83.8 86.7 88.6 90.3 90.4 90.7 90.7 91.2 92.6 92.1 90.6 87.8 86.6 84.7 83.4 7.0 7.3 7.7 8.1 8.4 8.7 8.9 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.3 9.2 9.0 8.9 14.5 13.0 13.4 15.4 13.1 12.5 12.7 10.4 19.6 17.8 11.4 8.9 10.2 8.1 9.3 10.0 8.8 8.5 8.7 6.8 12.6 Slovenian Economic Mirror, November 2009 42 Statistical Appendix WAGES AND INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009 2007 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 6 7 8 9 10 GROSS WAGE PER EMPLOYEE, y-o-y growth rates, % Activity - Total 4.8 5.9 8.3 5.8 6.7 7.8 8.6 9.9 7.1 5.5 4.6 2.3 5.2 6.9 5.7 4.9 6.6 A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 5.6 8.3 9.2 7.0 11.4 10.3 9.3 10.8 6.7 1.2 1.6 -0.5 5.4 8.4 9.0 3.6 7.4 B Mining and quarrying 4.5 6.4 13.6 5.3 12.6 9.4 13.8 16.0 14.8 5.6 2.4 1.6 4.2 6.1 3.3 6.6 8.8 C Manufacturing 5.6 7.0 7.6 7.0 8.6 8.2 9.7 9.3 3.4 0.0 -0.5 0.4 5.2 7.6 7.1 6.2 8.1 D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 5.5 6.2 9.4 5.2 11.1 9.3 10.1 9.8 8.8 7.9 7.8 5.1 9.5 2.0 5.0 8.5 12.1 E Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 3.7 7.1 7.8 6.8 10.0 8.3 9.1 9.0 5.2 4.2 3.2 1.2 3.7 7.7 6.1 6.8 8.2 F Constrution 6.4 6.6 7.6 5.7 6.7 7.7 9.6 9.1 4.3 1.2 1.0 1.6 4.6 8.6 5.4 3.3 6.7 G Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 5.3 7.6 7.8 7.5 7.5 7.5 9.0 8.8 6.1 4.4 2.3 1.2 6.8 7.9 7.8 6.9 7.1 H Transportation and storage 3.6 6.0 8.5 5.7 7.7 8.7 8.5 10.4 6.6 2.3 2.1 0.5 3.4 6.4 5.3 5.4 6.2 I Accommodation and food service activities 4.1 5.3 8.4 4.6 7.8 9.3 9.6 10.0 4.9 3.4 1.7 0.6 5.7 5.7 4.9 3.2 7.0 J Information and communication 3.9 5.7 7.3 5.7 4.6 6.8 7.8 8.7 6.2 3.7 3.1 0.8 6.2 7.6 6.3 3.2 8.1 K Financial and insurance activities 8.6 7.4 6.1 6.2 7.6 8.6 8.8 8.2 0.0 2.0 -3.8 0.3 6.8 8.9 7.7 2.2 13.8 L Real estate activities 4.6 7.0 6.0 7.4 5.6 6.8 8.6 5.3 3.6 1.6 0.0 1.8 8.9 8.6 7.7 5.9 5.0 M Professional, scientific and technical activities 4.9 7.0 8.4 7.1 8.9 9.7 8.6 9.1 6.4 4.0 3.3 1.5 6.2 8.0 6.7 6.6 8.3 N Administrative and support service activities 2.5 7.5 9.5 9.4 9.8 8.6 11.4 10.2 8.0 6.6 2.1 -0.2 5.9 8.9 9.7 9.5 9.7 O Public administration and defence, compulsory social security 2.9 5.1 12.2 6.5 6.4 11.1 10.8 13.2 13.7 11.5 9.8 2.5 5.7 8.7 4.9 5.9 5.9 P Education 4.8 3.9 7.0 3.1 2.4 5.5 5.8 7.7 9.0 6.9 6.1 1.2 5.1 4.2 2.6 2.4 2.3 Q Human health and social work activities 2.4 3.1 12.0 4.0 2.1 5.5 4.3 16.8 21.0 21.4 22.6 5.5 4.3 5.4 3.4 3.2 1.8 R Arts, entertainment and recreation 1.3 3.6 5.4 4.0 3.0 2.4 5.8 8.3 5.1 7.0 5.7 2.2 4.4 5.0 3.2 3.7 1.7 S Other service activities 1.5 3.3 8.1 3.0 5.1 6.6 8.6 8.5 8.8 4.1 1.0 0.7 2.9 3.8 2.2 2.9 2.9 INDICATORS OF OVERALL COMPETITIVENESS, y-o-y growth rates, % Effective exchange rate,1 nominal 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.4 -1.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.1 Real (relative consumer prices) 0.7 2.3 2.8 2.3 3.7 4.5 4.2 2.6 -0.1 0.4 0.0 0.2 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.0 3.6 Real (relative producer prices)2 -0.6 2.4 1.0 2.1 1.7 1.1 1.0 -0.2 1.1 3.0 3.4 3.7 2.1 2.1 2.4 1.9 2.1 USD/EUR 1.256 1.371 1.471 1.374 1.449 1.500 1.562 1.504 1.317 1.302 1.362 1.431 1.342 1.372 1.362 1.390 1.423 Sources of data: SORS, AP, BS, OECD Main Economic Indicators, calculations IMAD. Notes: ]Change of methodology: the calculation of domestic currency's effective exchange rate includes the currencies/prices of Slovenia's 17 trading partners (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Italy, France, Netherlands, Spain, Denmark, United Kingdom, Sweden, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, USA, Switzerland, Japan); weights are the shares of individual trading partners in Slovenian exports and imports of goods within manufacturing (5-8 SITC) in 2001-2003; exports are double weighted; a rise in the index value indicates an appreciation of domestic currency and vice versa. 2Producer prices in manufacturing activities Slovenian Economic Mirror, November 2009 43 Statistical Appendix 2007 2008 2009 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 7.1 6.5 6.1 9.3 8.0 9.5 7.6 8.8 8.7 9.8 11.2 9.2 3.9 8.6 6.8 4.2 5.3 5.1 4.1 4.7 3.8 0.7 2.4 16.1 10.2 8.3 16.1 6.7 10.3 9.7 7.9 13.5 6.3 12.9 11.3 -0.1 10.2 1.1 -3.3 6.1 2.0 -1.8 4.7 -0.4 -0.3 -0.7 9.4 20.6 5.2 9.7 13.3 11.8 17.0 12.5 17.3 10.0 20.7 39.0 -4.7 16.0 10.1 5.3 1.7 4.3 -5.9 9.4 2.3 6.2 -3.5 9.4 8.2 6.0 10.2 8.5 11.3 8.4 9.6 11.0 6.4 10.8 6.7 -1.4 5.7 0.1 -0.5 0.4 -0.4 -1.3 0.1 0.1 -0.6 1.6 9.9 11.8 8.4 10.2 9.3 13.2 9.6 7.8 15.3 8.3 6.2 25.2 2.2 3.2 9.4 6.1 8.1 7.6 5.5 10.3 5.6 2.9 6.7 12.6 8.5 7.2 9.8 8.1 10.7 6.8 9.8 10.5 5.5 11.3 14.0 -1.0 4.8 4.4 3.6 4.6 3.5 1.0 5.2 1.6 1.2 0.9 7.7 5.5 7.5 8.8 6.7 11.9 7.5 9.5 10.0 6.0 11.3 7.3 -1.0 7.2 1.7 -0.6 2.5 0.5 -0.9 3.4 2.9 0.6 1.4 8.5 6.9 6.5 8.8 7.1 10.0 8.0 8.9 9.1 7.0 10.2 8.0 3.9 6.6 6.1 3.5 3.6 1.5 2.9 2.4 1.6 1.5 0.6 8.6 8.2 8.9 8.5 8.6 8.3 7.0 10.2 7.8 13.1 10.2 7.1 7.5 5.2 3.9 2.4 0.6 2.9 2.2 1.1 2.0 -4.8 4.4 8.8 7.5 9.8 10.4 7.9 9.5 10.3 8.9 10.3 9.0 10.7 7.5 2.0 5.4 3.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 0.4 1.3 1.4 0.6 -0.2 -2.6 10.1 3.3 6.4 10.5 8.9 6.1 8.3 7.9 8.1 10.3 7.8 5.5 5.4 6.9 1.8 2.5 3.4 2.5 3.4 2.5 0.0 0.0 8.0 1.8 7.4 7.9 10.6 11.8 6.4 8.5 7.1 6.3 11.4 1.2 -6.3 8.1 3.8 0.6 1.7 -4.2 -5.4 -1.6 2.0 0.5 -1.7 7.6 3.9 6.3 8.3 5.8 10.1 8.3 7.5 4.7 4.6 6.7 4.5 1.5 5.0 2.9 1.4 0.6 1.3 -0.6 -0.5 1.9 1.4 2.0 10.0 8.3 9.2 10.5 9.3 8.7 7.9 9.2 9.9 7.3 10.3 9.3 1.8 8.8 3.1 4.3 4.7 4.6 2.2 3.3 2.0 1.1 1.3 10.2 9.6 8.7 9.5 7.7 10.8 11.2 12.2 11.1 8.3 11.2 8.4 8.6 7.1 9.1 5.1 5.5 3.2 1.6 1.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 6.5 6.9 6.8 14.3 12.0 12.0 10.0 10.4 7.6 18.8 13.3 12.9 16.0 12.3 15.2 8.8 10.7 11.0 10.0 8.4 5.3 -0.3 2.6 2.6 2.2 3.1 7.8 5.6 5.7 5.7 6.1 5.0 10.9 7.3 8.0 9.4 9.6 9.3 4.2 7.3 6.6 6.0 5.7 2.9 -1.7 2.6 1.8 2.6 3.1 7.2 6.1 3.2 3.8 6.0 4.6 24.5 21.5 21.3 20.5 21.4 25.5 18.9 20.0 26.5 22.2 19.3 16.0 0.4 1.7 3.3 3.8 4.5 5.9 -2.8 3.9 6.9 6.6 4.1 11.3 9.4 10.7 -3.2 9.1 8.2 6.4 6.3 7.2 6.0 4.0 5.8 0.1 1.1 7.4 4.9 6.6 6.2 6.9 10.3 8.8 6.7 9.0 8.0 8.3 9.0 6.3 11.3 2.6 5.3 4.3 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.3 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 -0.1 -1.3 -1.7 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.6 -0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.9 3.9 3.6 4.4 4.3 4.7 4.7 3.9 3.9 3.5 2.6 1.6 0.3 -0.7 0.0 -0.1 0.5 0.8 -0.2 0.1 0.3 -0.4 0.2 0.9 1.8 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.4 2.2 0.9 0.0 -0.2 0.3 -0.6 -0.6 0.8 3.2 2.8 2.8 3.4 2.9 3.2 4.0 4.2 3.1 3.9 1.468 1.457 1.472 1.475 1.553 1.575 1.556 1.555 1.577 1.498 1.437 1.332 1.273 1.345 1.324 1.279 1.305 1.319 1.365 1.402 1.409 1.427 1.456 Slovenian Economic Mirror, November 2009 44 Statistical Appendix PRICES 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009 2007 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 8 9 10 11 12 CPI, y-o-y growth rates, % 2.5 3.6 5.7 3.6 5.4 6.6 6.6 6.1 3.3 1.8 0.7 -0.2 3.5 3.5 5.1 5.7 5.6 Food, non-alcoholic beverages 2.3 7.8 10.1 8.2 12.6 14.0 12.0 9.8 4.9 3.2 0.9 -0.7 6.9 10.0 13.3 11.7 12.9 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 3.7 6.5 3.2 8.0 6.5 5.4 5.0 0.7 2.1 3.0 7.2 8.5 8.5 7.6 6.5 6.6 6.6 Clothing and footwear -0.5 2.1 4.4 3.3 2.5 4.9 5.2 2.1 5.2 1.8 1.2 -2.2 4.1 3.1 1.8 3.5 2.1 Housing, water, electricity, gas 5.3 2.6 9.7 2.2 7.6 10.5 11.4 11.5 5.3 1.7 -2.1 -3.5 3.2 1.4 6.7 8.2 8.0 Furnishings, household equipment 4.1 4.5 5.8 3.6 4.0 4.5 5.5 6.5 6.7 6.1 4.5 3.5 3.3 3.0 3.6 4.1 4.3 Medical, pharmaceutical products -1.7 1.1 2.9 1.1 0.4 -0.5 1.7 4.9 5.8 8.7 5.3 1.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.0 Transport 1.3 0.3 1.9 -0.9 1.6 2.9 2.9 4.1 -2.2 -3.7 -4.5 -4.1 -1.6 -1.9 0.4 2.5 1.9 Communications 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 2.2 1.9 0.1 -1.7 -4.3 -4.7 -4.3 1.2 -0.7 -0.7 -0.2 1.9 Recreation and culture 2.1 3.6 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.6 5.0 4.8 3.2 3.0 3.6 2.8 4.8 4.5 4.9 4.6 4.7 Education 3.1 1.9 5.2 2.2 3.6 4.7 5.4 4.8 6.1 5.1 3.0 2.7 1.4 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 Catering services 4.5 7.3 9.6 7.0 8.7 9.3 10.0 10.4 8.7 6.3 4.9 4.0 7.0 7.6 7.9 9.6 8.6 Miscellaneous goods & services 4.1 3.6 3.9 3.7 3.4 3.9 4.5 3.8 3.4 3.8 3.3 4.4 4.0 3.8 3.0 3.6 3.6 HCPI 2.5 3.8 5.5 3.7 5.5 6.5 6.4 6.2 3.1 1.7 0.6 -0.2 3.4 3.6 5.1 5.7 5.7 Core inflation (trim mean*) 1.5 2.1 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.0 1.4 1.0 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 Share of trimmed products 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) 1.1 2.6 4.6 2.9 3.9 4.7 4.9 4.7 4.0 3.1 2.6 1.2 2.9 3.0 3.7 4.0 4.0 PRODUCER PRICE INDICES, y-o-y growth rates, % Total 2.3 4.2 3.8 4.1 3.6 3.4 3.7 5.1 3.2 1.1 -1.5 -3.1 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.5 3.4 Domestic market 2.4 5.5 5.6 5.5 6.5 6.0 6.1 6.2 4.2 1.5 -0.4 -1.5 5.2 5.9 6.4 6.9 6.4 Non-domestic market 2.1 3.0 2.2 2.9 0.7 0.9 1.5 3.9 2.3 0.8 -2.6 -4.5 3.1 2.0 1.2 0.3 0.6 euro area 2.4 5.1 2.2 4.8 1.5 1.4 1.7 4.2 1.5 -0.6 -4.5 -6.0 4.9 3.9 2.2 1.2 1.0 non-euro area 1.6 -0.5 2.1 -0.3 -0.5 0.1 1.0 3.4 3.9 3.5 1.1 -1.7 0.3 -1.1 -0.4 -1.1 0.1 Import price indices 5.8 4.0 1.3 2.5 0.1 -0.2 0.3 3.8 1.4 -2.1 -4.6 -4.7 3.6 0.8 -0.2 0.0 0.5 PRICE CONTROL,1 y-o-y growth rates, % Energy prices 8.0 0.6 12.4 -1.6 6.2 13.1 16.9 21.1 -1.2 -12.9 -17.7 -17.3 -2.6 -3.6 2.2 8.4 7.9 Oil products 10.3 -0.9 11.7 -4.3 7.4 14.8 17.4 21.1 -5.7 -16.3 -18.9 -15.9 -5.5 -6.6 2.1 10.3 9.8 Basic utilities -2.6 -2.3 0.6 -3.7 8.4 1.4 1.3 -1.3 1.1 1.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 -5.7 14.3 6.5 4.8 Transport & communications 1.5 0.6 -0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 -1.3 -1.3 -1.2 -1.1 2.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Other controlled prices 2.6 2.9 1.8 3.0 3.0 1.4 1.7 1.7 2.4 2.4 6.8 5.6 3.8 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 Direct control - total 7.0 3.1 8.6 1.6 5.9 9.5 11.7 13.7 -0.2 -7.8 -10.9 -10.9 2.9 -2.3 3.9 7.1 6.6 Source of data: SORS, calculations and estimates IMAD. Note: *In line with methodology, the measure of core inflation ("Trimm mean") is optimised on monthly basis, hence some minor revisions of historical data are possible. 1 the structure of groups varies, data published are not directly comparable to those published previously. The electricity market was liberalized on 1 July 2007. Data from July 2007 onwards are not comparable. Since July 2009, formation of prices for utility services is no longer under government control.. Slovenian Economic Mirror, November 2009 45 Statistical Appendix 2008 2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 6.4 6.5 6.9 6.5 6.4 7.0 6.9 6.0 5.5 4.9 3.1 2.1 1.6 2.1 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 -0.6 0.0 -0.1 0.0 13.9 14.6 13.5 12.3 12.1 11.6 12.2 10.1 7.2 5.3 5.6 3.8 3.5 3.1 3.0 2.0 0.6 0.0 -1.3 -0.4 -0.4 -1.2 5.7 5.5 5.1 4.8 5.0 5.1 -0.2 0.5 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.7 4.0 4.3 8.4 9.0 9.1 8.6 7.7 7.7 2.9 4.8 6.7 7.0 4.6 4.1 0.8 1.7 3.7 6.1 4.6 4.8 2.3 0.6 2.3 0.5 1.9 1.1 -1.3 -1.7 -3.6 -2.7 11.7 9.6 10.4 9.3 11.4 13.4 13.6 10.4 10.5 9.0 4.8 2.4 0.8 3.0 1.2 0.1 -2.3 -4.0 -4.9 -3.5 -2.2 -1.7 4.0 4.3 5.2 5.7 5.7 5.2 5.9 6.4 7.3 7.0 6.7 6.5 6.5 6.7 5.1 4.7 4.2 4.5 4.0 4.0 2.5 2.1 -0.9 -1.2 0.5 1.4 1.7 1.9 4.5 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.4 6.7 9.5 9.8 6.9 5.4 5.5 5.1 1.9 1.6 0.7 0.6 2.8 2.7 3.1 2.1 2.4 4.4 4.9 3.7 3.7 2.6 -3.6 -5.4 -5.1 -2.5 -3.6 -3.5 -4.7 -5.2 -5.6 -3.5 -3.1 -2.8 1.0 2.8 2.9 2.8 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.5 -0.9 -0.9 0.0 -4.3 -3.7 -4.7 -4.6 -5.2 -4.4 -4.4 -4.1 -4.2 -4.6 -3.7 4.1 4.9 4.9 5.4 4.4 5.3 5.6 4.9 4.0 2.8 3.2 3.6 2.8 2.8 3.4 3.3 3.6 4.1 3.0 2.7 2.7 3.1 3.4 3.8 7.0 7.0 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 5.0 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.3 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.2 2.7 9.2 9.4 9.4 10.1 9.9 10.1 10.7 10.4 10.0 9.7 8.8 7.7 6.5 6.3 6.0 5.1 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.2 3.3 3.1 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.7 4.4 4.5 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.7 4.2 3.3 3.1 3.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 6.4 6.4 6.6 6.2 6.2 6.8 6.9 6.0 5.6 4.8 2.9 1.8 1.4 2.1 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.2 -0.6 0.1 0.0 0.2 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.3 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.4 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 4.2 4.9 5.1 5.3 4.9 4.7 5.1 4.7 4.5 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.2 2.8 3.1 2.6 2.6 2.6 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.7 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.5 4.4 4.9 5.5 4.8 4.2 3.3 2.2 1.9 1.1 0.3 -0.5 -1.6 -2.4 -3.0 -3.3 -2.8 -2.4 6.5 5.6 5.8 6.2 6.1 5.9 6.3 6.7 5.7 5.0 4.0 3.5 2.3 1.2 0.8 0.2 -0.7 -0.7 -1.3 -1.7 -1.6 -1.4 0.6 1.3 0.9 0.5 1.1 2.8 3.6 4.3 4.0 3.3 2.7 1.0 1.5 1.0 -0.1 -1.2 -2.5 -4.0 -4.7 -4.9 -4.0 -3.2 1.0 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.9 3.7 4.1 4.8 3.8 3.1 1.4 0.1 0.2 -0.3 -1.7 -3.1 -4.1 -6.2 -6.7 -6.4 -4.8 -3.9 -0.2 -0.1 0.5 0.4 1.3 1.1 2.5 3.3 4.3 3.9 5.1 2.7 4.2 3.5 2.9 2.5 0.5 0.2 -0.6 -2.0 -2.4 -1.9 -0.7 -0.1 0.1 -0.3 0.5 0.8 3.5 3.3 4.7 3.7 1.6 -1.0 -2.4 -1.3 -2.7 -3.8 -4.8 -5.2 -4.7 -5.0 -4.5 -3.7 12.4 12.1 14.8 11.9 15.5 23.2 24.8 20.0 18.4 14.1 -4.3 -12.7 -15.0 -8.9 -14.6 -14.5 -18.0 -20.1 -21.5 -16.3 -13.9 -12.6 14.0 14.1 16.4 12.6 15.3 24.1 25.5 20.0 17.7 12.2 -9.4 -18.9 -19.5 -11.2 -17.9 -15.6 -19.4 -21.2 -20.9 -14.8 -11.5 -9.4 2.8 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 -5.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.1 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.9 1.9 1.1 1.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 6.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 4.9 4.9 4.9 9.3 8.8 10.4 8.5 10.8 15.7 16.3 12.2 12.4 9.7 -2.2 -7.8 -9.4 -5.0 -9.0 -8.6 -11.2 -12.9 -13.7 -10.2 -8.6 -7.6 Slovenian Economic Mirror, November 2009 46 Statistical Appendix BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009 2007 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 9 10 11 12 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, in EUR m Current account -77' -',646 -2,287 -538 -692 -425 -486 -642 -733 -206 '90 75 -'73 -'60 -'97 -335 Goods' -',666 -2,650 -40' -664 -489 -668 -75' -743 -'28 7 -'45 -'95 -'80 -'9' -293 Exports '7,028 '9,798 20,048 4,927 5,062 5,084 5,349 5,038 4,577 3,946 4,080 3,972 ',708 ',855 ',78' ',426 Imports '8,179 2',464 22,698 5,328 5,726 5,573 6,0'7 5,789 5,320 -4,074 -4,074 -4,''7 ',903 2,035 ',973 ',7'9 Services 993 ',047 ',609 306 '67 334 475 487 3'4 263 3'8 4'5 '05 67 46 53 Exports 3,572 4,'45 5,040 ',259 ',0'8 ',053 ',299 ',480 ',209 927 ',055 ',269 385 37' 297 350 Imports 2,580 3,098 3,43' 953 85' 7'9 824 993 895 -664 -737 -854 280 303 25' 297 Income -440 -789 -',039 -376 -'35 -'50 -259 -394 -236 -2'2 -'50 -'52 -5' -52 -35 -48 Receipts 872 ','69 ',264 298 343 266 326 335 336 252 249 243 ''0 ''' ''' '20 Expenditure ',3'2 ',957 2,303 674 478 4'6 585 729 572 -464 -399 -395 '60 '64 '46 '67 Current transfers -'73 -239 -206 -67 -60 -'20 -33 '6 -69 -'29 '6 -43 -33 5 -'7 -48 Receipts 785 94' 783 230 278 '44 '90 229 220 ''9 247 '53 65 '07 89 83 Expenditure 958 ','80 989 296 338 264 223 2'3 289 -248 -23' -'96 97 '0' '06 '30 Capital and financial account ',092 ',920 2,395 384 982 435 74' 632 588 -'23 -32 -2' 7 '7' 3'' 500 Capital account -'3' -52 -43 -32 -8 -8 3 -8 -30 -5 40 -4 -24 7 5 -20 Financial account ',223 ',972 2,438 4'6 990 443 738 640 6'8 -''9 -72 -'7 3' '64 305 52' Direct investment -'74 -2'0 38' 9 56 ''4 -'42 '28 28' -'29 -303 -93 -'42 '03 -'00 53 Domestic abroad -687 -',3'7 -932 -438 -256 -'25 -450 -236 -'22 -'29 -322 -7' -224 8 -'62 -'02 Foreign in Slovenia 5'3 ','06 ',3'3 447 3'2 239 308 364 402 0 '9 -2' 82 96 62 '55 Portfolio investment -',442 -2,255 575 378 -806 305 -','52 '65 ',257 873 ','50 2,325 24 -360 -483 36 Financial derivatives -'3 -'5 46 -20 '2 30 4 5 6 -23 '2 '8 -7 4 4 4 Other investment ',57' 4,3'3 ',4'5 '7 ',665 75 ',947 340 -947 -953 -977 -2,254 246 397 9'2 356 Assets -',939 -4,74' -562 -',365 -574 -978 -'87 388 2'5 806 -276 -','56 -427 -290 -360 76 Commercial credits -442 -400 -'43 29 '36 -5'8 -'70 -9 554 5' 3 -53 -'56 -233 -'7 386 Loans -733 -',895 -54' -44' -627 5' -442 '58 -308 277 -73 -36 -74 -'3' -'37 -359 Currency and deposits -743 -2,454 ''7 -942 -85 -502 385 258 -23 472 -208 -',079 -'96 66 -207 56 Other assets -2' 7 5 -'2 ' -9 40 -'9 -7 7 2 '2 8 -6 Liabilities 3,5'0 9,054 ',977 ',382 2,239 ',054 2,'34 -48 -','62 -',759 -70' -',097 673 687 ',273 279 Commercial credits 479 499 -67 -89 266 '79 309 -'9 -537 -380 -88 '5 '55 '63 97 6 Loans 2,064 3,84' ',868 9'0 ',345 644 ',472 242 -490 -5'7 -',320 -'0' 426 2'0 88' 254 Deposits 998 4,727 '90 567 6'3 253 346 -272 -'37 -858 700 -983 98 328 299 -'4 Other liabilities -30 -'3 -'3 -6 '6 -22 7 2 ' -5 6 -28 -6 -'4 -4 34 International reserves2 ',28' '40 2' 32 64 -8' 80 ' 2' ''4 46 -'3 -9' 20 -28 72 Statistical error -32' -273 -'08 '54 -290 -'0 -255 '0 '46 329 -'58 -54 '66 -''3 -'65 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY END-USE OF PRODUCTS, in EUR m Export of investment goods ',680 ',936 2,24' 466 505 523 576 598 544 443 464 N/A '59 '8' '66 '59 Intermediate goods 9,368 '0,436 '0,760 2,559 2,597 2,752 2,893 2,730 2,385 ',985 2,008 N/A 864 959 928 7'0 Consumer goods 5,709 7,035 6,808 ',79' ',850 ',753 ',8'7 ',648 ',590 ',476 ',57' N/A 650 678 65' 522 Import of investment goods 2,565 3,03' 3,44' 755 882 773 928 862 878 58' 546 N/A 295 305 302 276 Intermediate goods '',3'9 '2,875 '3,735 3,'63 3,348 3,4'7 3,668 3,543 3,'07 2,366 2,329 N/A ','04 ','63 ','86 998 Consumer goods 4,456 5,60' 5,870 ',4'2 ',506 ',459 ',520 ',475 ',4'6 ','93 ',250 N/A 5'0 575 490 44' Sources of data: BS, SORS. Notes: 'exports and imports (F.O.B.) include also the adjustment for exports and imports of goods by ITRS and duty-free shops reports; 2 reserve assets of the BS. Slovenian Economic Mirror, November 2009 47 Statistical Appendix 2008 2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 -178 -117 -130 -120 -201 -165 -347 -157 -138 -236 -164 -334 -37 -111 -58 23 69 99 37 -41 78 -188 -134 -166 -160 -285 -223 -263 -298 -190 -266 -180 -297 -32 -30 -66 -60 10 56 -32 -135 21 1,618 1,710 1,757 1,866 1,716 1,767 1,809 1,339 1,891 1,841 1,532 1,204 1,218 1,298 1,430 1,310 1,338 1,433 1,405 1,066 1,502 1,806 1,844 1,923 2,026 2,002 1,990 2,071 1,637 2,080 2,107 1,711 1,501 -1,249 -1,328 -1,496 -1,370 -1,327 -1,376 -1,436 -1,200 -1,480 109 106 118 152 170 152 124 166 196 149 107 58 107 63 94 105 108 105 114 167 134 339 335 378 422 433 444 516 487 478 446 372 392 310 281 336 347 348 360 442 443 384 230 229 260 270 263 291 391 320 281 296 264 334 -204 -218 -242 -242 -240 -256 -328 -276 -250 -41 -41 -69 -82 -70 -107 -214 -50 -130 -83 -82 -71 -78 -71 -63 -56 -52 -43 -49 -48 -54 88 88 90 111 106 108 111 115 109 108 105 124 88 83 81 80 83 86 82 81 81 128 129 159 193 177 215 325 165 239 191 187 195 -166 -154 -145 -136 -135 -128 -131 -129 -135 -59 -48 -13 -31 -15 12 5 25 -14 -36 -9 -24 -34 -73 -23 34 2 -20 4 -25 -22 32 54 58 38 58 93 64 106 58 54 80 86 29 40 49 112 75 60 70 45 37 91 102 71 69 73 81 59 82 73 90 89 110 -63 -113 -72 -78 -72 -80 -66 -70 -60 86 228 121 192 346 202 411 187 34 -130 279 439 91 -116 -98 25 87 -144 46 -113 47 -9 0 2 5 -3 1 -6 -1 -1 4 39 -73 -8 -2 5 -2 -2 44 -3 -2 1 95 228 120 188 349 201 417 188 35 -134 239 512 98 -114 -103 28 89 -188 48 -111 46 32 -13 95 -49 -9 -84 125 51 -48 -40 85 235 56 -61 -123 -42 -175 -86 -52 52 -92 -32 -25 -68 -160 -128 -163 -116 -34 -86 -81 -9 -32 -24 -51 -53 -96 -207 -20 7 -12 -66 65 11 163 111 119 78 241 85 38 41 94 267 80 -10 -71 53 32 -66 -59 64 -26 16 692 -403 -452 -457 -243 134 -207 238 387 658 212 410 559 -96 1,005 263 -118 862 -216 1,679 10 10 10 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 -10 -13 0 4 8 -1 0 8 10 36 -497 536 602 797 548 229 238 -127 -516 -489 58 -354 -685 85 -935 -70 28 -708 16 -1,562 147 -960 -165 384 194 -766 112 -79 355 -435 19 632 122 593 90 -211 -818 754 -689 666 -1,133 -79 -226 -212 -25 -98 -47 16 147 -172 -43 132 465 146 -45 -50 23 41 -62 -7 75 -121 175 -44 -80 17 -205 -254 255 -377 280 -286 73 -95 34 218 25 35 -49 -59 -57 59 -38 37 -684 145 346 506 -468 -164 153 269 -115 -191 283 -69 411 130 -269 -809 870 -624 526 -981 14 -5 -18 46 -9 3 5 -2 -22 9 5 -22 11 10 -15 -1 -2 5 0 6 6 -111 463 702 218 603 1,314 117 317 -482 -81 -508 -574 -476 -1,278 -5 -723 749 -726 -18 -650 -429 -81 105 155 93 220 -4 38 -116 59 -67 -182 -287 -377 -5 2 -35 -32 -20 7 -93 101 117 217 311 -173 512 1,133 112 228 -98 37 -483 -44 -101 28 -444 -329 348 -1,339 14 -69 -46 -134 150 236 294 -128 180 -40 206 -438 -51 159 -244 5 -1,303 441 -361 434 627 -10 -491 -482 -13 -10 0 4 -2 5 6 0 -5 0 -2 2 -3 2 -4 2 -1 5 -30 3 -2 0 37 -118 85 16 -21 -73 104 -30 33 -17 5 -4 86 31 -5 62 -11 -53 29 12 92 -111 9 -72 -145 -37 -64 -30 104 366 -115 -105 -54 227 156 -48 -156 45 -83 154 -125 147 178 199 193 192 191 203 152 243 201 185 158 128 152 163 172 143 149 148 110 N/A 891 934 927 1015 925 953 976 756 998 981 816 589 647 640 697 649 656 703 724 555 N/A 561 580 612 635 578 603 607 411 629 638 511 441 429 492 556 479 525 567 518 390 N/A 248 252 274 316 312 300 294 226 342 289 279 310 172 161 248 190 183 174 164 132 N/A 1,116 1,145 1,156 1,225 1,222 1,221 1,291 1,029 1,222 1,309 1,017 782 745 801 819 761 757 811 854 708 N/A 466 474 519 518 503 500 520 404 551 544 441 431 353 388 452 437 408 406 431 379 N/A Slovenian Economic Mirror, November 2009 48 Statistical Appendix MONETARY INDICATORS AND INTEREST RATES 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 SELECTED CLAIMS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in SIT bn; since 1 January 2007 in EUR m Claims of the BS on central government 16.6 67 68 68 68 68 67 67 67 67 67 67 66 66 Central government (S. 1311) 776.6 2,367 2,162 2,465 2,408 2,342 2,345 2,348 2,374 2,367 2,412 2,397 2,392 2,123 Other government (S. 1312, 1313, 1314) 24.9 118 212 107 107 110 111 114 112 118 123 124 124 128 Households (S. 14, 15) 1289.4 6,818 7,827 6,015 6,157 6,323 6,468 6,607 6,830 6,818 6,918 7,009 7,133 7,235 Non-financial corporations (S. 11) 3236.0 18,105 21,149 15,788 16,274 16,720 17,004 17,269 17,748 18,105 18,570 18,754 18,938 19,351 Non-monetary financial institutions (S. 123, 124, 125) 368.1 2,305 2,815 1,911 2,034 2,083 2,205 2,367 2,396 2,305 2,390 2,411 2,494 2,558 Monetary financial institutions (S. 121, 122) 1158.7 2,401 3,666 2,211 2,218 2,439 2,448 2,460 2,580 2,401 2,455 2,432 2,444 2,624 Claims on domestic sectors, TOTAL In domestic currency 2298.2 26,555 32,113 23,558 24,146 24,892 25,310 25,864 26,596 26,555 27,164 27,406 27,768 28,503 In foreign currency 3149.0 1,990 2,370 1,456 1,560 1,638 1,699 1,789 1,900 1,990 2,117 2,192 2,280 2,276 Securities, total 1286.8 3,570 3,346 3,484 3,492 3,488 3,573 3,511 3,544 3,570 3,586 3,529 3,477 3,239 SELECTED OBLIGATIONS OF OTHER MFI ON DOMESTIC SECTORS, end of the month, in SIT bn; since 1 January 2007 in EUR m Deposits in domestic currency, total 2,903.4 20,029 23,129 18,446 18,880 19,299 19,386 19,579 19,558 20,029 20,088 20,674 20,779 20,774 Overnight 1,178.6 6,887 6,605 6,953 7,047 6,881 6,907 6,695 6,573 6,887 6,924 6,557 6,787 6,711 With agreed maturity -short-term 1,251.2 8,913 10,971 7,592 7,867 8,331 8,247 8,689 8,723 8,913 8,899 9,862 9,745 9,734 With agreed maturity -long-term 292.4 2,857 4,157 2,693 2,728 2,790 2,874 2,820 2,817 2,857 2,845 2,803 2,814 2,926 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 181.2 1,372 1,396 1,208 1,238 1,297 1,358 1,375 1,445 1,372 1,420 1,452 1,433 1,403 Deposits in foreign currency, total 1,454.5 559 490 610 605 628 608 589 585 559 571 560 520 529 Overnight 552.7 218 215 274 270 278 269 255 260 218 248 240 226 222 With agreed maturity -short-term 545.5 248 198 249 242 258 248 241 226 248 229 237 220 224 With agreed maturity -long-term 318.3 56 41 60 61 62 60 60 57 56 55 48 45 45 Short-term deposits redeemable at notice 38.0 37 36 27 32 30 31 33 42 37 39 35 29 38 INTEREST RATES OF MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, % New deposits in domestic currency Households Overnight deposits 0.32 0.36 0.43 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.37 0.42 0.40 0.40 0.44 0.41 0.41 0.43 Time deposits with maturity of up to one year 2.96 3.36 4.45 3.26 3.36 3.41 3.61 3.89 3.83 4.04 4.08 3.95 4.03 4.14 New loans to households in domestic currency Housing loans, 5-10 year fixed interest rate 4.56 5.80 6.88 5.36 5.79 5.98 6.16 6.45 6.44 6.58 6.75 6.40 6.61 6.53 New loans to non-financial corporations in domestic currency Loan over EUR 1 million, 1-5 year fixed interest rate 4.64 5.76 6.03 5.12 6.49 - 5.76 5.59 - 6.25 - - 5.63 6.32 INTEREST RATES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, % Main refinancing operations | 2.781 3.851 3.851 4.001 4.001 4.001 4.001 4.001 4.001 4.001 4.001 4.001 4.001 4.00 INTERBANK INTEREST RATES EURIBOR 3-month rates 3.58 4.28 4.63 4.15 4.22 4.54 4.74 4.69 4.64 4.85 4.48 4.36 4.60 4.78 6-month rates 3.58 4.35 4.72 4.28 4.36 4.59 4.75 4.66 4.63 4.82 4.50 4.36 4.59 4.80 LIBOR CHF 3-month rates 1.51 2.55 2.58 2.55 2.72 2.80 2.82 2.79 2.75 2.77 2.70 2.74 2.83 2.85 6-month rates 1.65 2.65 2.69 2.70 2.85 2.86 2.90 2.89 2.85 2.84 2.77 2.77 2.87 2.93 Sources of data: BS, BBA - British Bankers' Association. Slovenian Economic Mirror, November 2009 49 Statistical Appendix 2008 2009 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 1 10 1 11 1 12 1|2|3|4|5|6|7|8|9|9 66 65 66 66 67 69 69 68 69 87 103 121 140 142 151 167 166 161 2,162 2,052 2,030 2,069 2,046 2,058 2,176 2,162 2,704 2,867 3,134 3,288 3,542 3,472 3,456 3,427 3,610 3,625 129 133 136 143 178 184 181 212 223 229 233 243 254 251 257 262 281 305 7,318 7,409 7,521 7,603 7,705 7,857 7,785 7,827 7,831 7,852 7,868 7,910 7,946 7,951 8,055 8,135 8,231 8,295 19,616 20,064 20,404 20,619 20,872 21,134 21,092 21,149 21,346 21,429 21,469 21,509 21,516 21,517 21,557 21,671 21,704 21,688 2,568 2,736 2,726 2,729 2,798 2,815 2,845 2,815 2,815 2,814 2,851 2,869 2,838 2,835 2,838 2,868 2,846 2,846 2,375 2,386 2,403 2,400 2,737 2,965 2,963 3,666 3,887 3,826 3,786 3,829 4,008 4,365 4,382 4,334 4,723 4,563 28,871 29,380 29,805 30,108 30,888 31,444 31,594 32,113 32,388 32,663 32,648 32,790 33,140 33,353 33,601 33,628 34,045 33,922 2,259 2,263 2,228 2,271 2,344 2,512 2,371 2,370 2,372 2,315 2,190 2,172 2,122 2,059 2,017 2,003 1,969 1,939 3,038 3,137 3,188 3,184 3,104 3,059 3,077 3,346 4,046 4,040 4,504 4,686 4,843 4,979 4,925 5,067 5,380 5,460 20,613 21,144 21,341 21,465 21,992 22,177 22,385 23,129 23,563 24,487 24,334 25,649 26,020 26,576 26,206 25,956 26,950 26,860 6,841 7,071 6,744 6,703 6,918 6,666 6,577 6,605 6,415 6,421 6,609 6,610 6,876 7,163 6,862 7,011 7,079 6,940 9,292 9,439 9,936 9,929 10,038 10,530 10,659 10,971 11,246 12,053 11,705 12,951 13,053 12,015 10,560 10,067 10,720 10,487 3,046 3,170 3,241 3,378 3,519 3,555 3,727 4,157 4,542 4,729 4,827 4,876 4,868 6,182 7,600 7,712 7,952 8,190 1,434 1,464 1,420 1,455 1,517 1,426 1,422 1,396 1,360 1,284 1,193 1,212 1,223 1,216 1,184 1,166 1,199 1,243 527 488 491 502 493 537 551 490 504 502 491 489 495 492 480 462 462 457 225 218 220 228 218 244 247 215 242 230 233 231 251 249 239 240 244 242 224 196 192 190 196 213 227 198 181 195 177 180 166 170 166 150 144 141 42 42 43 42 43 44 42 41 42 43 42 42 41 39 39 38 43 42 36 32 36 42 36 36 35 36 39 34 39 36 37 34 36 34 31 32 0.46 0.46 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.51 0.52 0.43 0.48 0.40 0.34 0.28 0.25 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 4.20 4.30 4.40 4.39 4.53 4.65 4.56 4.45 4.08 3.40 2.82 2.44 2.28 2.40 2.35 2.27 2.14 2.04 6.53 6.63 6.71 6.95 6.99 7.10 7.17 6.88 7.05 6.63 5.75 6.75 6.37 6.59 6.74 6.57 6.64 6.74 5.47 6.63 6.91 6.53 6.94 6.76 7.24 7.74 6.61 6.35 6.34 6.05 6.10 6.19 6.36 6.20 6.66 6.47 4.00 4.001 4.251 4.25 | 4.25 | 3.75 | 3.25 | 2.501 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.50 | 1.251 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 4.86 4.94 4.96 4.97 5.02 5.11 4.24 3.29 2.46 1.94 1.64 1.42 1.28 1.23 0.98 0.86 0.77 0.74 4.90 5.09 5.15 5.16 5.22 5.18 4.29 3.37 2.54 2.03 1.78 1.61 1.48 1.44 1.21 1.12 1.04 1.02 2.78 2.84 2.79 2.75 2.78 3.00 1.97 0.91 0.57 0.51 0.44 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.37 0.34 0.30 - 2.89 2.98 2.94 2.89 2.92 3.09 2.16 1.08 0.71 0.65 0.58 0.54 0.54 0.52 0.49 0.45 0.41 - Slovenian Economic Mirror, November 2009 50 Statistical Appendix PUBLIC FINANCE 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 10 1 11 1 12 1 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE OF PUBLIC FINANCING (GFS-IMF methodology), current prices, EUR m GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES TOTAL REVENUES 12,958.7 14,006.1 15,339.2 3,429.1 4,059.8 3,369.3 4,005.7 3,857.5 4,106.6 3,282.6 3,542.8 3,558.9 1,323.7 1,323.1 1,413.0 1,134.1 Current revenues 12,395.3 13,467.2 14,792.3 3,332.1 3,805.1 3,274.0 3,881.0 3,733.8 3,903.4 3,204.0 3,322.8 3,470.4 1,259.4 1,236.3 1,309.4 1,104.1 Tax revenues 1 1,762.0 12,757.9 13,937.4 3,123.6 3,606.0 3,110.0 3,702.0 3,472.0 3,653.3 3,058.9 3,164.5 3,279.0 1,194.1 1,168.1 1,243.8 1,057.4 Taxes on income and profit 2,735.3 2,917.7 3,442.2 646.3 769.4 694.4 1,106.5 806.5 834.7 707.3 617.5 735.5 233.4 235.7 300.3 223.0 Social security contributions 4,231.2 4,598.0 5,095.0 1,139.1 1,251.8 1,203.1 1,254.2 1,272.9 1,364.8 1,285.3 1,280.9 1,260.6 385.1 397.3 469.4 394.7 Taxes on payroll and workforce 472.9 418.1 258.0 101.5 120.9 59.4 62.2 63.5 72.9 7.4 7.2 6.2 34.1 36.5 50.3 20.0 Taxes on property 189.1 206.4 214.9 67.3 59.0 27.5 62.6 69.6 55.2 20.6 51.5 74.6 16.3 29.3 13.3 8.7 Domestic taxes on goods and services 4,077.3 4,498.6 4,805.3 1,135.5 1,372.5 1,099.4 1,181.7 1,227.8 1,296.4 1,015.4 1,177.5 1,184.2 514.5 459.9 398.0 404.6 Taxes on international trade & transactions 50.7 117.1 120.1 33.2 31.7 25.6 33.7 31.0 29.8 22.5 29.2 17.2 10.4 9.1 12.2 6.3 Other taxes 5.4 2.1 1.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.7 -0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 Non-tax revenues 633.3 709.2 854.9 208.6 199.1 164.0 179.0 261.8 250.1 145.1 158.3 191.4 65.3 68.1 65.7 46.6 Capital revenues 166.8 136.6 117.3 39.6 62.1 28.0 26.9 28.8 33.6 14.1 29.7 19.3 14.6 15.7 31.9 11.1 Grants 5.4 11.9 10.4 2.0 5.0 2.0 2.1 3.1 3.1 2.9 1.7 1.9 1.4 0.8 2.8 0.8 Transferred revenues 42.8 42.5 53.9 0.4 40.5 1.2 0.9 0.6 51.3 0.2 1.5 1.1 0.8 39.7 -0.1 0.4 Receipts from the EU budget 348.4 348.0 365.4 55.1 147.1 64.0 94.8 91.3 115.3 61.4 186.9 66.2 47.6 30.6 69.0 17.7 GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES TOTAL EXPENDITURES 13,208.7 13,915.5 15,441.7 3,240.0 4,081.8 3,388.6 3,792.9 3,628.8 4,631.4 3,877.0 4,064.1 3,766.0 1,140.5 1,249.6 1,691.7 1,030.3 Current expenditures 5,689.0 5,950.9 6,557.5 1,362.2 1,658.2 1,575.9 1,581.7 1,513.7 1,886.2 1,768.8 1,682.8 1,577.0 483.8 500.7 673.7 451.0 Wages, salaries and other personnel expenditures 3,180.3 3,276.9 3,578.9 814.4 825.0 819.7 906.8 892.5 959.8 963.3 1,004.1 953.9 266.2 273.5 285.3 268.6 Expenditures on goods and services 2,073.2 2,212.2 2,527.5 518.0 721.3 523.1 589.3 586.1 829.0 548.8 619.4 604.2 187.4 212.1 321.9 155.0 Interest payments 376.4 357.0 335.2 17.5 36.7 221.0 69.8 12.9 31.5 246.7 48.4 12.0 26.6 4.9 5.2 22.9 Reserves 59.0 104.8 116.0 12.3 75.2 12.1 15.8 22.2 65.9 10.0 10.9 6.8 3.7 10.3 61.3 4.4 Current transfers 5,925.8 6,143.9 6,742.2 1,456.0 1,565.1 1,489.9 1,856.8 1,567.3 1,828.2 1,748.2 1,936.1 1,736.9 473.7 547.1 544.3 460.5 Subsidies 402.9 423.4 476.5 88.3 92.8 60.5 243.0 57.7 115.3 165.0 126.9 86.5 18.0 25.6 49.2 5.0 Current transfers to individuals and households 4,871.5 5,093.3 5,619.2 1,211.1 1,304.0 1,303.5 1,448.9 1,344.8 1,522.0 1,436.2 1,614.8 1,475.9 405.0 470.5 428.5 418.1 Current transfers to non-profit institutions, other current domestic transfers 624.1 595.3 598.3 145.3 160.8 118.7 151.2 153.2 175.2 140.0 178.5 164.5 49.6 48.9 62.3 35.7 Current transfers abroad 27.4 32.0 48.2 11.3 7.6 7.2 13.6 11.6 15.7 7.0 15.9 9.9 1.1 2.2 4.3 1.8 Capital expenditures 901.4 1,130.5 1,255.5 266.9 567.3 149.0 215.9 350.0 540.6 175.3 236.7 297.3 117.3 121.0 329.0 53.7 Capital transfers 404.6 334.3 458.6 69.3 181.4 30.6 62.3 130.8 234.9 35.9 112.9 86.1 35.6 49.4 96.3 9.0 Payments to the EU budget 287.9 355.9 427.9 85.6 109.8 143.2 76.2 67.0 141.5 148.9 95.6 68.7 30.1 31.3 48.4 56.1 SURPLUS / DEFICIT -250.0 90.6 -102.5 - - - - - - - - - - - - Source of data: MF Bulletin. Note: in line with the changed methodology of the International Monetary Fund of 2001, social security contributions paid by the state are not consolidated. Data prior to 2007 are recalculated on the basis of the irrevocable SIT/EUR exchange rate = 239.64. Slovenian Economic Mirror, November 2009 51 Statistical Appendix 2008 2009 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 6 1 7 1 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 1I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9 1,100.1 1,135.2 1,463.1 1,259.9 1,282.8 1,342.2 1,226.0 1,289.3 1,310.0 1,305.0 1,491.6 1,123.2 1,067.7 1,091.7 1,199.9 1,102.2 1,240.7 1,285.0 1,182.6 1,091.3 1,073.5 1,096.4 1,435.7 1,228.7 1,216.6 1,306.1 1,164.7 1,263.0 1,295.2 1,184.7 1,423.5 1,112.4 1,029.2 1,062.4 1,124.2 1,047.1 1,151.5 1,240.6 1,157.6 1,072.3 1,015.6 1,037.0 1,374.1 1,175.5 1,152.4 1,253.4 1,066.2 1,152.4 1,234.1 1,126.5 1,292.7 1,068.5 980.1 1,010.3 1,076.2 996.5 1,091.7 1,194.2 1,087.7 997.1 221.2 250.1 498.3 316.7 291.5 297.9 256.5 252.1 261.1 261.4 312.2 249.4 239.9 218.1 195.9 229.5 192.1 291.4 233.6 210.4 400.0 408.4 419.0 415.8 419.5 425.8 414.8 432.3 435.0 434.9 494.9 433.4 423.7 428.1 433.1 423.8 423.9 424.5 417.3 418.8 19.5 19.9 20.9 20.4 20.9 21.3 20.4 21.8 22.1 22.7 28.1 3.2 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.6 1.7 1.9 10.5 8.3 12.0 28.6 22.1 23.0 26.5 20.0 16.3 26.6 12.3 5.3 7.9 7.4 7.9 15.8 27.9 22.6 34.6 17.4 354.7 340.1 411.5 383.4 386.9 475.3 336.2 416.3 490.6 371.0 434.9 370.7 298.5 346.2 424.3 316.7 436.5 445.4 395.4 343.5 9.3 9.9 12.3 10.5 10.9 9.8 11.5 9.7 10.2 9.7 9.9 6.3 8.1 8.1 12.4 8.2 8.6 7.4 5.1 4.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 -1.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 58.0 59.4 61.6 53.1 64.3 52.7 98.5 110.6 61.1 58.1 130.9 43.9 49.1 52.2 48.0 50.6 59.8 46.4 69.8 75.2 9.6 7.3 6.2 5.8 14.9 12.9 6.8 9.0 6.1 6.2 21.2 2.8 5.9 5.3 3.9 15.5 10.4 8.2 6.4 4.7 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.8 1.6 0.3 1.2 0.6 1.0 1.6 0.2 0.7 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.8 0.1 0.7 1.1 -0.4 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.4 49.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.4 16.1 30.2 19.3 25.3 50.2 21.5 53.7 16.1 7.7 63.6 43.9 7.5 31.9 21.9 70.6 39.3 77.0 34.7 18.4 13.1 1,140.4 1,218.0 1,228.6 1,363.5 1,200.8 1,139.6 1,179.6 1,309.7 1,259.5 1,452.7 1,919.2 1,119.8 1,408.5 1,348.8 1,255.5 1,477.7 1,330.9 1,249.6 1,263.4 1,252.9 512.3 612.7 528.6 544.9 508.2 507.2 486.1 520.4 535.2 562.4 788.7 502.2 619.0 647.6 569.3 580.8 532.7 539.0 534.3 503.7 266.0 285.1 277.7 338.9 290.3 292.5 292.5 307.6 292.9 306.4 360.5 304.8 332.5 326.0 312.2 373.5 318.4 325.1 317.6 311.2 168.6 199.5 184.8 199.2 205.3 204.0 185.7 196.5 207.5 241.4 380.1 172.5 179.8 196.6 213.2 202.7 203.6 207.6 212.6 184.0 74.2 123.9 61.4 2.5 5.8 4.9 2.2 5.7 22.7 2.0 6.8 21.4 103.1 122.3 41.7 1.9 4.8 4.4 1.7 6.0 3.5 4.1 4.6 4.3 6.8 5.9 5.7 10.6 12.0 12.5 41.3 3.5 3.7 2.8 2.3 2.7 5.9 1.9 2.4 2.4 517.3 512.1 580.1 707.5 569.2 513.9 535.3 518.1 528.4 680.2 619.6 515.3 638.3 594.5 571.1 761.3 603.8 583.7 570.0 583.2 35.0 20.6 86.7 83.7 72.6 16.6 19.4 21.7 27.7 18.5 69.1 9.1 110.6 45.3 31.3 54.7 40.9 27.3 22.6 36.6 441.1 444.3 445.0 566.4 437.5 442.0 464.4 438.4 448.8 600.7 472.5 463.1 480.6 492.5 487.2 643.7 483.9 492.1 496.7 487.0 37.7 45.3 46.2 50.5 54.5 54.0 48.4 50.7 51.4 50.3 73.5 40.9 46.4 52.7 51.0 56.3 71.2 62.1 49.6 52.9 3.5 1.9 2.2 6.9 4.6 1.3 3.0 7.3 0.5 10.7 4.5 2.2 0.7 4.1 1.5 6.6 7.8 2.2 1.1 6.7 44.8 50.5 69.3 68.4 78.2 77.7 98.2 174.1 94.5 96.1 349.9 57.4 60.5 57.4 65.6 83.7 87.4 87.4 101.9 108.1 10.7 10.8 18.9 19.2 24.3 21.8 38.0 70.9 53.0 81.1 100.9 12.8 6.3 16.8 17.1 27.8 68.0 22.8 28.1 35.1 55.3 31.9 31.7 23.6 20.9 18.9 21.9 26.2 48.4 32.9 60.1 32.1 84.4 32.4 32.4 24.1 39.1 16.7 29.1 22.8 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 52 Slovenian Economic Mirror, November 2009 Acronyms Acronyms AJPES - Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public Legal Records and Related Services, BS - Bank of Slovenia, EC -European Commission, ECB - European Central Bank, ELES - Electro Slovenia, ESS - Employment Service of Slovenia, EU - European union, GDP - Gross domestic product, HICP-Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, IAADP - Internal Administrative Affairs Directorate, IMAD - Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, IMF - International Monetary Fund, LFS - Labour Force Survey, MF - Ministry of Finance, MFA - Ministry of Foreign Affairs, MI - Ministry of the Interior, MPA - Ministry of Public Administration, NFI - Non-monetary Financial Institutions, OECD - Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, PPA - Public Payments Administration of the Republic of Slovenia, RS - Republic of Slovenia, SCA - Standard Classification of Activities, SITC - Standard International Trade Classification, SRE - Statistical Register of Employment , SORS - Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia. Acronyms of Standard Classification of Activities (SCA) A- Agriculture, forestry and fishing, B- Mining and quarrying, C- Manufacturing, 10- Manufacture of food products, 11-Manufacture of beverages, 12- Manufacture of tobacco products, 13- Manufacture of textiles, 14- Manufacture of wearing apparel, 15- Manufacture of leather and related products, 16- Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture, manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials, 17- Manufacture of paper and paper products, 18-Printing and reproduction of recorded media, 19 - Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, 20 - Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, 21- Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, 22- Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, 23- Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products, 24- Manufacture of basic metals, 25- Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, 26- Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, 27- Manufacture of electrical equipment, 28- Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c., 29- Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, 30- Manufacture of other transport equipment, 31-Manufacture of furniture, 32- Other manufacturing, 33- Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, D- Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, E- Water supply sewerage, waste management and remediation activities, F-Construction, G- Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, H- Transportation and storage, I-Accommodation and food service activities, J- Information and communication, K- Financial and insurance activities, L-Real estate activities., M- Professional, scientific and technical activities, N- Administrative and support service activities, O- Public administration and defence, compulsory social security, P- Education, Q- Human health and social work activities, R- Arts, entertainment and recreation, S- Other service activities, T- Activities of households as employers, undifferentiated goods - and services - reducing activities of households for own use, U- Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. Acronyms of Countries AT-Austria, BE-Belgium, BG-Bulgaria, BY-Belarus, CH-Switzerland, HR-Croatia, CZ-Czech Republic, CY-Cyprus, DE-Germany, DK-Denmark, ES-Spain, EE-Estonia, GR-Greece, FR-France, FI-Finland, HU-Hungary, IT-Italy, IE-Ireland, JP-Japan, LU-Luxembourg, LT-Lithuania, LV-Latvia, MT-Malta, NL-Netherlands, NO-Norway, PL-Poland, PT-Portugal, RO-Romania, RU-Russia, SE-Sweden, SI-Slovenia, SK-Slovakia, TR-Turkey, UA-Ukraine, UK-United Kingdom, US-United States of America.